Applied Optoelectronics (Seite 6)

[R-BgO]

UPPS!

seit meinem letzten Vorbeischauen mal eben verdoppelt....


Frage jetzt:

ist das nur ein short-squeeze oder mehr?

Auf jeden Fall sehe ich ziemlich dämlich damit aus, dass ich meine im Schnitt für 51$ gekauften Stücke mit strike 35$ veroptioniert hatte

[SmartCap]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 57.251.821 von linkshaender am 12.03.18 12:43:06

hat dem kurs nur kurzfrstg. geholfen ..

ich hatte vor kurzem eine gespräch mit einem optical equipment manager aus usa. Seine Firma verkauft an Huawai (fast 20% kunde) und ZTE in China. Er sagte dass der AAOI competitor Innolight (google as a venture investor) mit gross margins von 15 % in China operiert. AAOI derzeit noch mit 40% - in den usa

einer der gründe warum ich noch auf derseitenline bleibe...fällt mir schwer zu glauben, dass aaoi die margen halten kann ...

das denglisch kommt daher, dass ich mein eigenes engl posting übersetzt habe.

viel erfolg !

sc

[linkshaender]

Lumentum übernimmt Oclaro!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oclaro-m-a-lumentum-hldg/…

Welche Auswirkungen hat das für AAOI?

[SmartCap]

ein Branchenkenner der bisher mit seinen Warnungen richtig lag schrieb im jan "AAOI Datacenter revenues will go way below $50 mm at some point this year. Maybe hit $30mm or less."

ich bleibe Beobachter ...

viel glück -

und chapeaux den shortern, btw wirklich kluge analyse gegen die bankanalysten, falls ihr kein insiderwissen hattet ;-)

[SmartCap]

aus dem SEC Filing

First Quarter 2018 Business Outlook (+)


For the first quarter of 2018, the company currently expects:


· Revenue in the range of $67.0 million to $71.0 million.
· Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 40.5% to 41.5%.
· Non-GAAP net income in the range of $5.6 million to $6.8 million, and non-GAAP fully diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.28 to $0.34 using approximately 20.2 million shares.


(+) Please refer to the note below on forward-looking statements and the risks involved with such statements as well as the note on non-GAAP financial measures.



Conference Call Information



The company will host a conference call and webcast for analysts and investors on Feb. 21, 2018 to discuss its fourth quarter and year 2017 results and outlook for its first quarter of 2018 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time / 3:30 p.m. Central time. Open to the public, investors may access the call by dialing [phone]. A live audio webcast of the conference call along with supplemental financial information will also be accessible on the company's website at investors.ao-inc.com. Following the webcast, an archived version will be available on the website for one year. A telephonic replay of the call will be available one hour after the call and will run for five business days and may be accessed by dialing [phone] and entering passcode 10115850.

[SmartCap]

ich finde den schwachen Ausblick nicht überraschend und sehe die Aktie eher Richtung 15 $ laufen.

sc

[santakl]

Nachtrag

One of Amazon’s most prominent suppliers is Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), with "the highest historical exposure as a percent of sales to the web scale giants.”

But after a breakdown in Applied’s revenue last year, "we believe that the company will continue to experience a transitory slowdown at its largest customer, Amazon, and do not expect meaningful upside until the June quarter."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-google-cloud-spendin…

[santakl]

Applied Opto: Down 22%, Plenty of Questions Heading to Q4 Report

ByTiernan Ray Feb. 13, 2018 11:25 a.m. ET

Shares of fiber-optic component supplier Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), hit hard last year by a slowdown in its business, is down another 22% this year, as it rolls toward its Q4 report next Wednesday, February 21st, after market close.

Simon Leopold, with Raymond James, who rates the stock a Strong Buy, writes today that he’s been receiving “a number of questions” in advance of that report.

He’s expecting the company will beat top-line revenue expectations for $85.6 million, with perhaps $90 million, but there is still the question of when its business with Amazon (AMZN), at one point its biggest customer, and now perhaps less than 10% of quarterly sales, will recover.

Rather, Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) will probably be the top customers, as they were last quarter, when they made up 61% of sales.

Leopold acknowledges “sentiment among optical stocks is negative,” with China still a worry, following reports by Applied’s peers, Lumentum (LITE) and Oclaro (OCLR).

But he is less concerned about competition.

Leopold goes through the various pieces of data he’s gleaned, including from the supply chain, and sees little to worry him overly much from other vendors such as M/A Com (MTSI) and Fabrinet (FN):

Several suppliers (e.g., Oclaro, MACOM) have commented on poor profitability in the intra-data center transceiver market. We think AOI is a price aggressor and a force stimulating these comments. AOI has indicated it could reduce its transceiver ASPs by 30% while cutting its costs by 40% from June 2017 to December 2017. Many believe Intel and/or Innolight are crushing the market. We suspect MACOM is among those asserting Intel’s assault on the market. We consider Innolight is a competitive threat, but it is the primary supplier to Google, which remains an investor in the company. Regarding Intel, we have not identified where or how it could manufacture transceivers in volume. Fabrinet’s F2Q18 (December) results do not provide evidence of new data center optical competitors taking share. Fabrinet is a contract manufacturer that includes Intel, Lumentum, Oclaro and Cisco among its customers. Fabrinet’s Optical Communications revenue met expectations and dropped 12% q/q from $276 million in September. The report provided no evidence of newer players (e.g., Intel) gaining traction with QSFP28 transceivers. Fabrinet indicated that QSFP28 sales were $42 million, down from $48 million in 1QFY18. The drop reflected the transition from higher ASP LR4 to lower ASP CWDM4 variants that could be a shift from Oclaro toward Intel. This trend should also bode positively for AOI.

quelle

https://www.barrons.com/articles/applied-opto-down-22-plenty…

[tippse]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.828.524 von R-BgO am 25.01.18 17:25:12

das sind die kräfte der schwerkraft:
- nach wie vor stehen über 10 mio shares wie eine betonwand short
- heftiger druck aus china (sowohl von der angebots- als auch der nachfrageseite) heißt: die technologie scheint wohl in einer phase der beliebigkeit angekommen zu sein (siehe: solarindustrie, led-industrie etc.)
- der chart. keine trendumkehrsignale zu erkennen...

für einen nachhaltigen trendwechsel braucht es klare signale der technologie- und/oder preisführerschaft

dennoch wird die aktie langsam billig...

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.991.829 von R-BgO am 20.10.17 14:35:49

und heute zu ,57 nachgelegt;

so langsam wird's schmerzhaft, wenn ich Mist gemacht haben sollte...


allerdings abgefedert durch short-call Jan19@35$ für den ich 7,26 bekommen habe;

d.h. um Geld zu verlieren, muss der Kurs in einem Jahr unter 28$ stehen;

wenn es nur seitwärts läuft, dann mache ich 26%.



Zahlen sollen am 21.2. kommen, bin gespannt.