An apple a day keeps the doctor away! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Olli67]

Darauf einen Berentzen!

Olli

[MTT]

Wie das denn ?


Da steht doch "strong buy" vom Anal-Ysten
Sowieso...:

*LOL*

Hier der Text von vor 4 Wochen (STRING BUY):

Transition of Coverage

Apple Computer

Die Analysten von Wit Capital stufen die Aktien von Apple Computervon Buy auf Strong Buy herauf.


We are transitioning coverage of Apple from Mark Specker today and upgrading the stock to strong buy from buy. Demand remains strong for the new products Apple launched last month and the product transition is going smoothly. We believe the company is in a strong position to continue growing share in the consumer PC market, which we forecast will grow 25%+ for the next several years off of a base of 35 million units last year. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 24x and a P/E/G of 1.3, leaving plenty of headroom for multiple expansion entering Apple’ s strongest season of the year. Our six-month target price is $76, up 35% from current levels.

Trading Net:

· Timing is right, valuation is compelling. Upgrading to strong buy from buy.

· Apple is in front of its most significant new product cycle since the iMac’ s debut in August 1998.

· Demand is strong entering Apple’ s strongest season of the year.

· The product transition is going smoothly.

· The increasing emphasis on Internet computing and away from Windows computing is opening up the entire consumer market to Apple, whereas in the 1990s, Apple’ s customer base was confined to Mac loyalists. Apple’ s 6% share of the consumer market leaves the company plenty of headroom to gain market share.

· There’ s room for multiple expansion. The stock trades at only 24x our CY01 EPS estimate, which is up 19% y/y and up 25% y/y without the one-time tax rate increase that will happen next year. We believe that Apple can trade at 1.5-2.0x its long-term earnings growth of 20% for a P/E multiple of 30-40x. Apple’ s closest comp, GTW, trades at 29x.

· Our six-month target price is $76, or 33x CY01 EPS of $2.29.

· Current quarter. We spoke to the company earlier this week. Management remains comfortable with its guidance for the current quarter. Demand remains strong for the new products and the product transition is going well with very healthy sell-through on old products. We’ ve modeled revenue of $2.0 billion and EPS of $0.46, a penny above the Street.

· Apple is well positioned for ongoing market share gains. In the last decade, the rise of Windows undermined Apple’ s strengths. This decade, the shift from Windows computing to Internet computing is playing to Apple’ s strengths (e.g. innovative design, adept marketing, a strong brand and uniquely cool products) and placing the company in a strong position for ongoing share gains. Said differently, now that the Internet is becoming the platform, Apple’ s customer base is no longer limited to Mac loyalists but is opening up to the entire consumer market. Apple has plenty of market share headroom too. Today it has a 4% share of the worldwide PC market and a 6% share of the consumer market.

· Estimates and target price. Apple’ s strengthening position in the market and new product lineup gives us confidence in management’ s 20% top-line growth goal for FY01. We are introducing FY 00 and FY 01 EPS estimates of $1.85 and $2.14, respectively. The Street is at $1.85 and $2.12, respectively.

· Gross margin upside. We see gross margin strength as a source of upside. We’ ve modeled FY01 gross margin down 50bp from FY00, but the introduction of OS X early next year could mean margins are flat to up. Every 50bp of gross margin is about a dime of EPS. Page 2

Discussion

· More detail on the current quarter.

· Demand remains strong. Orders continue to be strong for the products Apple introduced last month. The Cube hit store shelves last week and the $799 iMac is on track to arrive in stores on schedule in September.

· Product transition going well. Sell through on old products is “very healthy,” inventory levels are running at or below plan and management remains comfortable with the price protection reserve it booked in the June quarter.

· Components. Management is confident component issues will not constrain its ability to meet demand. Higher component prices are keeping a lid on gross margin, but price increases are well within plan.

· Numbers. Our $2.0B revenue estimate is based on year-over-year unit growth of 52% and an ASP decline of 4%. We assume a gross margin decline of 200bp sequentially versus management’ s guidance for a 200-300bp decline. Management has always preferred to be on the conservative side with its gross margin guidance, so we would not be surprised if margins declined by less than 200bp sequentially. This is particularly true considering that component price increases are well within plan so far this quarter. Our $0.46 EPS estimate is a penny above the Street.

· Apple is well positioned for ongoing market share gains.

· Plenty of market share headroom. Apple has lots of headroom for market share gains with only 4% of the worldwide PC market and 6% of the fast growth consumer market, to which Apple has tied its growth strategy. The consumer market is a 44 million unit opportunity this year, up 25% from 1999 levels by our estimates. Unit growth in the consumer market was 45% last year and 28% in 1998.

· The Market is shifting to Apple’s strengths. In the last decade Windows was the platform. This decade, the Internet is the platform. This change is shifting consumer emphasis from the operating system to Apple’ s core strengths: innovative design, adept marketing, strong brand, and uniquely cool products. Thus, as long as the Apple marketing and design machine can keep cranking, Apple’ s best days are yet to come.

· In the last decade, Apple lost a lot of ground when Windows became THE operating system for which developers wrote applications. Apple’ s key strengths – brand, marketing and cool, well-designed products – gradually became less important as Windows became the dominant platform and applications for the Mac diminished.

· Another way to look at this is how consumers made buying decisions. For the last ten years, consumers overwhelmingly shopped for a Windows-based PC. The first buying decision concerned Windows, followed by the hardware configuration. A distant third, design and ease of use which is Apple’ s forte.

· Looking forward, the Internet is the platform. Developers are increasingly writing new applications for the Internet, not for a particular operating system. Rather than shopping for a Windows PC, consumers are increasingly looking for cool, fast computers that are easy to use for the price. Now that the Internet is the platform, Apple’ s customer base is no longer limited to Mac loyalists but is open to the entire consumer market.

· New products. Last month at MacWorld New York, Apple introduced several new products: a new iMac family, new PowerMac G4’ s and an entirely new product category called the Cube in addition to two new peripherals, an optical mouse and a new keyboard.

· Pricing. Pricing was unchanged for the iMac and the PowerMac line. Apple did introduce a $799 entry-level iMac; previously Apple’ s lowest price point was $999. Management believes that 50% of worldwide retail PC sales occur at prices below $999.

· Cube. Perhaps the best of the new products is the Cube, which stakes out a new product category for Apple and is without a doubt the coolest computer we’ ve ever seen.

· The Cube hit store shelves last week. Orders have been strong. We’ ll know more on sell-through within the next couple of weeks.

· The Cube should drive incremental demand. Cannibalization of the entry level G4 will occur to some extent, which is a positive since the Cube sells for $200 more than the entry level G4.

· The Cube comes in two configurations; one at $1799 and a faster version available exclusively at Apple’ s on line store for $2,299.

· Upcoming events. CEO Steve Jobs is slated to give the keynote speech at Seybold San Francisco August 29 at 9am PDT. Mac World Europe begins September 13.


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EIN WITZ, HERR ANAL-YST !!!



MTT

[zikou]

Gut soooooo!!!!!
Endlich die Meinung gesagt über die allwissenden Anal-Isten!!