Tagesbericht: Gold, Analyse: Stillwater - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Goldhotline]

Tagesbericht

20.06.00 Gold -3 auf 285 $, Goldaktien nachgebend, Analyse: Stillwater (Nordamerika)

Der Goldpreis fiel im gestrigen New Yorker Handel um 3 auf 285 $/oz zurück. Aus der Sicht der
Investmentbanken, die 10.000 t Gold Shortpositionen und zusätzlich 6.000 t Gold
Derivateverpflichtungen eingegangen sein sollen, konnte der Goldpreis wieder deutlich unter die
Marke von 290 $/oz gedrückt werden, bei der mutmaßlich größere Schieflagen entstehen würden.

Der nordamerikanische xau-Goldminenindex fiel um 3,0 % oder 1,8 auf 58,4 Punkte. Bei den
Standardwerten schwächten sich Newmont 4,8 % und Homestake 3,8 % ab. Bei den kleineren
Werten verloren Meridian 12,5 % und Battle Mountain 5,6 %. TVX konnte um 10,0 % zulegen.

Die in New York gehandelten südafrikanischen Werte notierten schwächer. Harmony verloren 8,8
% und Durban Roodepoort Deep 5,1 %. Gold Fields konnte sich um 0,8 % verbessern und
profitiert wie auch Franco Nevada (Nordamerika), die sich um 1,7 % verbessern konnte, von der
geplanten Unternehmensfusion der beiden Gesellschaften.

Der australische Goldminenindex fiel um 1,2 % oder 8,0 auf 663,0 Punkte. Bei den
Standardwerten fiel Newcrest um 2,3 %. Delta Gold erholte sich um 0,8 %. Bei den kleineren
Werten stiegen Croesus um 8,3 % und Hill 50 um 2,4 %. Resolute setzte die Baisse mit einem
weiteren Verlust von 7,7 % fort. Otter Gold gab um 6,8 % nach. Der Explorationswert Metex
schloß um 5,9 % leichter. Rio Tinto, der Weltmarktführer im Rohstoffbereich, zeigte sich mit einem
Verlust von 4,4 % ebenfalls schwach.

Die aktuellen Topempfehlungen der Goldaktien (maximale Kauflimite in Klammern):

Nach dem Kursrückgang wurde Battle Mountain zu einer Kaufempfehlung.

Achtung: Wegen der Marktenge müssen alle Orders (auch in Australien) in Tribune Resources
limitiert werden! Die Dividende der Delta Gold ist durch die aktuellen Probleme in Simbabwe und
auf den Solomonen Inseln gefährdet.

Australien:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Delta Gold 1,19 A$ (2,40 A$, aktuelle Dividendenrendite 8,4 %), Normandy Mining 0,85 A$ (1,20
A$, aktuelle Dividendenrendite 7,1 %), Pacmin 1,44 A$ (1,60 A$), Lihir 0,58 A$ (0,70 A$),
Newcrest 3,90 A$ (4,00 A$), Sons of Gwalia 4,81 A$ (4,80 A$, jetzt eine Halteposition)

Spekulativ:
New Hampton 0,205 A$ (0,26 A$), Hill 50 0,86 A$ (1,10 A$), Tribune Resources 0,225 A$ (0,25
A$), Aquarius Platinum 3,65 A$ (2,80 A$, jetzt eine Halteposition)

Südafrika:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Harmony 5,80 Euro (6,50 Euro), Gold Fields 4,05 Euro (4,50 Euro), Anglogold (ADR zu 1/2Aktie)
(GB) 21,80 Euro (28,00 Euro)

Spekulativ:
Durban Roodepoort Deep 1,17 Euro (1,80 Euro)

Nordamerika:
Sicherheitsorientiert:
Placer Dome 9,25 $ (12,00 $), Kinross 1,00 $ (1,25 $), Freeport 9,6875 $ (16,00 $), Homestake
7,0625 $ (8,00 $), Battle Mountain 1,9375 $ (2,00 $), Barrick 18,25 $ (18,00 $, jetzt eine
Halteposition), Newmont 23,0625 $ (22,00 $, jetzt eine Halteposition)

Spekulativ:
TVX 0,6875 $ (1,00 $)

Bis auf New Hampton und Aquarius Platinum werden alle Werte auch in Deutschland gehandelt.

Bemerkung: Bei New Hampton wurden am 24.12.99 Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL) Aktien im
Verhältnis von 5 MDL für 18 New Hampton Aktien und Gratisoptionen im Verhältnis von 1 Option,
Laufzeit 31.05.01, Basis 0,23 A$ für 2 New Hampton Aktien abgeschlagen.


Unternehmensmeldung
(AUS=Australien, NA=Nordamerika, SA=Südafrika, $=US$, MKP=Marktkapitalisierung),
Marktkapitalisierung immer in A$, Produktionskosten immer in US$

20.06.00 Stillwater (NA, MKP 1.684 Mio A$) meldet für das Märzquartal eine Produktion von
26.000 oz Platin und 86.000 oz Palladium. Der Anstieg der Produktion um 3,7 % und der Abstieg
der Nettoproduktionskosten von 175 auf 234 $/oz lag weit hinter den Erwartungen. Das
Produktionsziel für das Jahr 2000 wurde um 10 % auf 470.000 oz zurückgenommen. Bei einem
durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreis von 548 $/oz und Nettoproduktionskosten von 234 $/oz arbeitete
Stillwater mit einer Bruttogewinnspanne von 314 $/oz. Bei einem Umsatz von 61,3 Mio $ konnte
ein operativer Gewinn von 28,4 Mio $ erzielt werden, was einem aktuellen KGV von 13,6
entspricht. Stillwater verfügt mit Reserven von 19,7 Mio oz Palladium und 6,0 Mio oz Platin bei
einer auf 1,2 Mio oz verdreifachten Produktion über eine durchschnittliche Lebensdauer der
Reserven von 21,4 Jahren. Der Hebel auf den Platin- und Palladiumpreis liegt aktuell bei 11,2.

Beurteilung: Bei einer unveränderten Gewinnspanne und einer Verdreifachung der Produktion
würde das KGV bis 2003 auf 5,0 zurückfallen. Stillwater bietet sich als einzige nordamerikanische
Anlagealternative zu den südafrikanischen Produzenten Impala Platinum und Anglo American
Platinum an, weist aber im Vergleich zur am 07.03.00 analysierten Aquarius Platinum (AUS) ein
weit geringeres Aktienkurspotential auf. In den letzten Wochen blieb Stillwater vernachlässigt und
hat nach unserer Einschätzung ein schnelles Kurspotential auf mindestens 40 $/Aktie. Vom
Broker CIBC erhielt Stillwater am 18. April 2000 bei einem Aktienkurs von 37 $ die Beurteilung als
"Strong Buy".

Empfehlung: Halten, unter 40,00 $ kaufen, aktueller Kurs 29,00 $. Stillwater wird in Deutschland
mit geringen Umsätzen in Düsseldorf gehandelt (vgl. Analyse vom 27.03.00).

Die Goldhotline

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Mill Operation Upgrade Commenced at Stillwater Mine
DENVER, Sep 6, 2000 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Stillwater Mining Company (Amex: SWC chart, msgs) announced that a mill upgrade has begun and operation of the mill has been temporarily interrupted at the Stillwater Mine, Nye, Montana. This temporary shutdown of the semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mill was scheduled for the fourth quarter to perform planned upgrades, but due to a recent mechanical problem, the upgrade was moved forward. The mill upgrades consist of replacing the gear box, bull gear, pinion gear and sole plate. All new parts are onsite at Nye, with the exception of the sole plate, and it is expected by September 11, 2000.

Bill Nettles, Chairman and CEO, said, "Our plan is to have the SAG mill back in operation within 10 to 14 days. Currently, we have about 20,000 tons of ore stockpiled and this will increase, but is expected to be worked off by the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, we have put a contingency plan in place to bypass the SAG mill using an existing crushing plant supplied by a contractor. This auxiliary crusher will enable the concentration circuit to run at a reduced rate until the upgrades are completed. The mining operation will continue as usual."

He added, "We continue to be pleased with the progress being made at the Stillwater Mine. We were on track to show improved results for the third quarter with ore tons mined per day up 11% for the first two months of the quarter compared to the second quarter and development footage at record levels. However, with the temporary shutdown, ounces produced for the third quarter are expected to be slightly below second quarter." Stillwater Mining Company is the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum and the only significant primary producer of platinum group metals outside of South Africa. The Company is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol SWC.

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Idaho Consolidated Metals Announces Drill Permit Approval
LEWISTON, Idaho, Sep 5, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Idaho Consolidated Metals Corp. (CDNX:IDO.) announced today that the Custer National Forest, Beartooth Ranger District has approved the Company`s proposed drill sites on the National Forest lands.

Four drill holes have been proposed to test the eastern extension of the J-M Reef near Fishtail Creek and to the east of Fishtail Creek. The holes were sited based on field mapping and sampling, as well as airborne geophysics. The EM and magnetic signature of the J-M Reef, which is located in the Stillwater Complex and hosts the world`s highest grade PGM ore body, is very distinct and follows to the east onto Idaho`s claims.

"I am pleased that the permitting went smoothly with no unexpected issues and it was a pleasure dealing with the experienced professionals at the Beartooth Ranger District," said Del Steiner, President and CEO of Idaho Consolidated.

However, Mr. Steiner added that drilling will be delayed due to the extreme fire danger in Central Montana. The National Forest has implemented a Level V fire restriction, which temporarily terminates exploration in the forest. Therefore, the Company has suspended its exploration plans until the fire hazard moderates and the fire restriction is reduced. During this time, Idaho Consolidated will compile information generated to date to further define the drill program.

The fire situation has also affected exploration on the Company`s claims located in the Gallatin Forest and the permit approval for drilling on the west side of the complex has been delayed due to Forest Service professionals controlling area fires.

Idaho Consolidated is a mining exploration company focused on exploring platinum group metal (PGM) properties. PGMs are rare, vital metals and the market continues to demonstrate considerable growth, largely from use in catalytic converters and hi-tech applications. The Company`s key projects cover an extensive land position of approximately 30,000 acres in the world`s richest PGM area, the Stillwater Complex in Montana. The Stillwater Complex hosts a layered mafic/ultramafic intrusion with several mineralized horizons, including the J-M Reef currently being mined by Stillwater Mining Company. Idaho Consolidated`s exploration program indicates a continuation of the J-M Reef on its claims. Idaho Consolidated`s claims cover other highly prospective mineralized horizons including the Picket Pin -- second in importance to the J-M Reef -- the "A" and "B" Chromites and the nickel/copper sulphides. The Company is involved in joint ventures with Platinum Fox and Chrome Corp. on their properties.

The Company`s shares are traded on the Canadian Venture Exchange under the symbol "IDO". A location map can be found on the Company`s website: www.montanaplatinum.com.

The Canadian Venture Exchange has neither approved nor disapproved of the contents contained herein.

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Stillwater Mining Announces Three Year Operating Plan for Stillwater Mine
DENVER, Sep 12, 2000 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (Amex: SWC chart, msgs) announced today its three-year plan for the Stillwater Mine, Nye, Montana. The Company expects to process ore grade material at an average of 2,300 tons per day in 2001, 2,500 tons per day in 2002 and 2,800 tons per day in 2003. Palladium and platinum production from the mine is forecast at approximately 500,000 ounces for 2001, 590,000 ounces for 2002 and 665,000 ounces for 2003. Cash costs of production over the three year period are projected to be about $230, $200 and $185 per ounce, respectively. On a cash cost per ton milled basis, costs are projected to be $120, $115 and $110, respectively. Details are outlined in the accompanying table.

"Our operating and planning team have invested a significant amount of time and resources in developing an achievable plan," said Bill Nettles, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "The schedule as outlined allows us to 1) complete development objectives 2) make necessary upgrades to the infrastructure and 3) improve our ability to execute the plan in an orderly way. We are moving from being a production-driven organization to a plan-driven organization, and this should improve the predictability of the operating plan at the Stillwater Mine.

"Our efforts to make improvements at the Stillwater Mine are paying off. August was a record month for footwall lateral development, and total development footage, including diamond drilling, is ahead of internal projections. This accelerated development work is expected to significantly increase proven reserves by the end of 2000 compared to year-end 1999.

"The average number of rounds per day has increased from 54 at the end of May of this year to 71 through the first full week of September. We believe these improvements are an indication that the Stillwater Mine is turning the corner toward achieving its expansion targets."

For the three year period, total capital expenditures for the Stillwater Mine are expected to be approximately $80 million for 2001, $60 million for 2002 and $60 million for 2003, respectively. Capitalized development for each of the three years is expected to be $25 million, plus an additional $15 million in 2001 for accelerated development. Major capital projects for the three year period are approximately $25 million per year, with sustaining capital set at $15 million for 2001 and $10 million per year for 2002 and 2003. A capital schedule is attached.

Stillwater Mining Company is the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum and the only significant primary producer of platinum group metals outside of South Africa. The Company is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol SWC. Information on Stillwater Mining can be found at its web site: www.stillwatermining.com.

NOTE: Management`s conference call reviewing the three year plan at 12:00 noon Eastern Daylight Time today will be simultaneously carried on the Company`s web site under the Investor Relations section, Management Presentations heading. A replay on the web site will be available approximately two hours after the call ends.

THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995. Some statements contained in this release are forward-looking and, therefore, involve uncertainties or risks that could cause actual results to differ materially. Such forward-looking statements include comments regarding processing rates, production, costs of production, increases in proven reserves, planned improvements in operations, projected development footage and capital cost forecasts. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include price volatility of palladium and platinum, economic and political events affecting supply and demand for platinum and palladium, risk of cost overruns, inaccurate forecasts, problems with productivity, unexpected events during ramp-up or development, fluctuations in ore grade, tons mined, recovery rates, difficulty of estimating reserves accurately, dependence on a single mine and geological, technical, mining or processing problems. These and other factors are discussed in more detail in the Company`s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the "Risk Factors" contained in the Company`s Annual Report on Form 10-K and its Registration Statement on Form S-3, filed on July 1, 1998. Descriptions of events relating to the palladium and platinum markets are not intended to be complete, and readers are advised to obtain their own information and advice regarding commodities markets. The Company disclaims any obligation to update forward-looking statements.


Stillwater Mine
Three Year Plan*
Operating Statistics
September 2000


2001 2002 2003

Average Ore Tons per Day 2,300 2,500 2,800
Mill Head Grade 0.65 0.68 0.70
Recovery 0.91 0.92 0.92

Total Ounces Produced
(includes sub-grade) 500,000 590,000 665,000
Cash Cost per Ounce $230 $200 $185

Total Primary Development
Footage 53,000 35,000 36,000
Footwall Lateral 20,300 18,800 16,200
Secondary Development 27,400 29,400 29,700
Diamond Drilling Footage 530,000 425,000 470,000
*All projections in the Stillwater Mine three-year plan are estimates and, as such, are subject to revision. See statement under Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.



Stillwater Mine
Three Year Plan*
Capital Expenditures
September 2000


($ in millions)
2001 2002 2003

Accelerated Development $15 $-- $--
Capitalized Development 25 25 25
Capital Projects 25 25 25
Sustaining Capital 15 10 10

Total Capital Expenditures $80 $60 $60


Capital Project Detail
2001 - 2003

Detail
2900 Decline/Conveyor System $20
Ventilation Upgrades 15
5000 Rail Upgrades 15
Ore/Waste Pass Modifications 10
Mine Services 10
Other Projects 5

Total $75
*All projections in the Stillwater Mine three-year plan are estimates and, as such, are subject to revision. See statement under Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.



Source: Stillwater Mining Company

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Übersicht 1994-2002(e):
http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Stillwtr.gif

Kurzfrist-Chart:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?s=SWC

Lägerfristig:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?s=SWC&time…

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INTERVIEW-Stillwater CEO toasts booming PGM business
DENVER, Oct. 3 (Reuters) - Stillwater Mining Co.(AMEX: SWC), the sole U.S. producer of platinum and palladium, is steadfastly bullish on the platinum group metals (PGM) business, although demand for the scarce and costly metals could dwindle as consumers seek substitutes, the company`s top official said.

"We think it is going to be a very healthy environment for pricing for us for lots of years to come," Stillwater Chairman and CEO William Nettles told Reuters on the fringes of the annual Mining and Investment Forum sponsored by the Denver Gold Group.

Nettles noted the company is turning a solid profit, with net income rising to about $33 million in the first half, about $0.83 a share.

"We`ve been very profitable -- this year was the growth," Nettles said. "We lost money in 1996 and `97 and then as the palladium price increased we`ve been able to really increase the profitability of the company."

With production bottlenecks at its namesake Stillwater mine in Nye, Montana, mostly cleared away, it expects to ramp up company output from 210,000 ounces in the first half of 2000 to 500,000 ounces in 2001 and 665,000 in 2003.

Record demand for the metals, used in automobile anti-pollution devices and jewelry, propelled palladium prices to record highs this year and platinum to its costliest in 12-years.

But shipments from Russia, producer of two thirds of all palladium and about a fifth of world platinum, have fallen far short of sating the appetite of automobile catalytic converter makers faced with ever toughening global emissions laws.

Of the macro palladium picture, Nettles said with new mine supply at about 5.5 million ounces a year and demand about 9.5 million ounces, the deficit is being filled from Russia`s stockpile, which, though its size is a state secret, is believed to be evaporating fast.

"In the future, probably demand is going to start to taper off because the car companies are doing things -- `thrift` they call it -- to use less, and the other end users because of prices are also reducing their consumption," he said.

Stillwater announced it three-year operating plan in September and will be releasing third-quarter earnings in the next few weeks.

"There are a lot of things we can`t talk about right now, until the financials come out," said the executive.

On the American Stock Exchange on Tuesday, Stillwater shares were last up 40 cents at $27.50 a share.

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Stillwater Mining bank credit line extended
DENVER, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Stillwater Mining Co. (AMEX: SWC), the only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum, said on Monday that $125 million in project financing has been made available to it for seven more months, until April 30, and the interest rate been raised to LIBOR plus 2.00 percent.

The banking syndicate`s extension would provide the company with the liquidity necessary to continue with its business plan until permanent financing could be arranged, Stillwater said in a brief statement.

Spokeswoman Gina Wilson said the waiver on the availability of the funds had been due to expire Sept. 30. The interest rate had been LIBOR plus 1.00 percent to 1.75 percent.

In mid-September, the company released a three-year plan for the Stillwater Mine in Nye, Mont., calling for capital spending of about $80 million next year and $60 million a year in 2002 and 2003.

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Idaho Consolidated Metals Confirms Platinum and Palladium Mineralization Model
LEWISTON, Idaho, Sep 26, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Idaho Consolidated Metals Corp. (CDNX:IDO.) announced today that five grab samples returned assays greater than 20 grams per tonne platinum group metals (PGMs) from samples collected on its Stillwater Complex property in Montana.

One grab sample assayed 40.70 grams per tonne PGM and 1.00 gram per tonne gold. The samples were collected north of Iron Mountain near a geophysical conductor.

PGMs occur at several stratigraphic levels in the Stillwater Complex, although once the J-M Reef was discovered, exploration virtually ceased on the other zones. Idaho Consolidated has started to investigate these other zones and found them to contain high values of PGMs. The anomalous samples listed below were collected near the contact between the Ultramafic Series and the Banded Series and directly above an EM conductor delineated during the recent geophysical survey. They represent a style of mineralization distinct from the J-M Reef.

"This program clearly shows that, as we suspected, there is more than one target horizon to explore on the Stillwater Complex," said Del Steiner President and CEO of Idaho Consolidated Metals Corp. "Obviously, we are focused on extensions and offsets of the J-M Reef, which is currently in production by Stillwater Mining Co., but we won`t overlook other targets."

The geophysical conductor, being traced by geologists on the ground, is at least 2,500 meters in length. The samples were collected above the conductor, and near its east end. The area has a reclaimed trench and has shallow relief and little outcrop. Sample results are as follows:


SAMPLE Au Pt Pd Pt+Pd Location Sample
DESCRIPTION g/tonne g/tonne g/tonne g/tonne Type
---------------------------------------------------------------
1056 0.62 3.54 16.60 20.14 Iron grab
Mt.North
1057 0.69 4.96 16.90 21.86 Iron grab
Mt.North
1058 0.90 7.31 31.60 38.91 Iron grab
Mt.North
1059 0.91 7.30 27.00 34.30 Iron grab
Mt.North
1060 1.00 11.20 29.50 40.70 Iron grab
Mt.North
**Note: rhodium assays are pending
The mineralization forms as a result of migration of late stage, volatile-enriched, solutions along transverse faults. The epithermal mineralization forms discordant, pipe-like bodies and also forms pegmatoidal, mineralized segregations along the contact between the Ultramafic Series and the Upper and Banded Series. Similar bodies in the Bushveld Complex can contain economic concentrations of PGMs. This mode of mineralization has seen limited exploration in the Stillwater Complex, although it at least locally hosts economic PGM grades as demonstrated by the recent sampling.

The Company is following up with a comprehensive mapping program in this area and is continuing to explore the geophysical conductor. As this is a "new" target, which has been under-explored in the past, it is a high priority for the Company`s upcoming drill program.

The Company is pleased with its progress to date in the identification of this mode of mineralization. Idaho Consolidated has received invaluable technical assistance from the company`s Joint Venture partner -- Chrome Corp. of America, and Mr. Alistair Turner in particular.

Idaho Consolidated is a mining exploration company focused on exploring platinum group metal (PGM) properties. PGMs are rare, vital metals and the market continues to demonstrate considerable growth, largely from use in catalytic converters and hi-tech applications. The Company`s key projects cover an extensive land position of approximately 30,000 acres in the world`s richest PGM area, the Stillwater Complex in Montana. The Stillwater Complex hosts a layered mafic/ultramafic intrusion with several mineralized horizons, including the J-M Reef currently being mined by Stillwater Mining Company. Idaho Consolidated`s exploration program indicates a continuation of the J-M Reef on its claims. The Company`s claims cover other highly prospective mineralized horizons including the Picket Pin -- second in importance to the J-M Reef -- the "A" and "B" Chromites and the nickel/copper sulphides. The Company is involved in joint ventures with Platinum Fox and Chrome Corp. on their properties.

The Company`s shares are traded on the Canadian Venture Exchange under the symbol "IDO". A location map can be found on the Company`s website: www.montanaplatinum.com.

[gholzbauer]

CS First Boston stuft SWC von "Buy" auf "Hold" herunter.
aktuell 25$ (-2.19$)

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