Vertrauenskrise

Paukenschlag kommt noch vor Freitag

Das Vertrauen der Märkte in die Politik ist verloren, die Fähigkeit der Regierungen zur Lösung der aktuellen Wirtschafts- und Finanzprobleme wird ernsthaft angezweifelt. „Doch wie können dieselben Regierungen dieses Vertrauen wieder herstellen?“ Diese Frage stellt sich Steen Jakobsen, Chefvolkswirt bei der Saxo Bank.
 
Und Deutschland scheint wieder einmal im Zentrum dieser Frage zu stehen. „In Deutschland sieht der Markt nicht einen Teil der Lösung, sondern die Lösung an sich“, so der Saxo Bank Experte. „Darauf deuten die gestrigen CDS-Spreads Deutschlands hin, die höher ausfielen als die von UK. Der Markt zeigt damit indirekt, dass es letztlich an Deutschland als wichtigstem Gläubiger hängen wird, die Eurozone zu stabilisieren.“ Der Preis für diese hohe Belastung sei dann unter Umständen ein schlechteres Bonitätsrating Deutschlands.
 
Jakobsen erwartet, dass es noch vor Handelsschluss am Freitag eine starke politische Entscheidung geben wird. Mögliche Szenarien wären:

•    China wertet seine Währung auf
•    Das Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) startet seine „Operation Twist“
•    Japan gibt öffentlich bekannt, europäische und US-Staatsanleihen zu kaufen
•    Die EZB senkt die Zinsen auf null Prozent
•    Deutschland verpflichtet sich dem Euro-Stabilisierungsfonds (EFSF) zu 100 Prozent und nimmt ein Downgrading seiner Bonität in Kauf
•    Präsident Obama ruft einen Feiertag aus und gewinnt damit Zeit
•    Die EU verbietet Leerverkäufe – gefolgt von den G20-Staaten
•    Die G7 intervenieren bei Yen und Schweizer Franken – mit Hilfe von China
•    Alle Märkte werden geschlossen, um bis Montag früh einen neue Lösung zu finden


„Letztlich werden wir wohl eher eine „Euro-Mark“ bekommen, also eine Währungszone ohne die Peripherieländer, als dass die europäischen Regierungen und allen voran Deutschland sich absolut der EU-Rettung verschreiben“, so Jakobsen abschließend. (Saxo Bank)

 

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The crisis of governments - is there a way out? (by Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank, 9.8.2011)

 “How is a crisis of confidence in Government going to be solved by Governments?” – this question was asked by a friend of mine in response to a recent note I penned.  He has a clear and strong point – how is it that we are reduced to sitting around waiting for Germany to decide to do something it should have done a long time ago – or for the FOMC to realise that QE and QE2 did not work? Or trusting the US Congress to get started on reducing debt in the US?
 
No, the market has an agenda of laser precision:  It’s screaming for the government to deal with the root cause of this crisis – the lack of productivity in the West and fiscal mess in the EuroZone periphery.
 
The market saw further bad news today as the cost of insuring Germany against default on the CDS market rose above the cost of doing so for the UK. This is a real sign that the market believes that ultimately, Europe’s biggest creditor is not only part of the solution but the only solution. The price for this could very easily be a lower German rating. Meanwhile on the domestic scene in Germany we see the media, and in particular the anti-EU media, having a field day playing the card of ‘No bail-out clause in the Maastricht Treatty” and clarifying that not even Germany can afford to pay for this mess.
 
The market however is desperate for “solutions” – many of them merely short-term measures to stem the current, vicious contagion. A new sign of desperation came today when the yield on three-month CHF deposits went negative – yes, you will need to pay money to park your money in Switzerland for three months. Before you say this is illogical, remind yourself of the old saying: The next few weeks is not about the return on your money, but more on how much of your money will be returned on the other side!
 
Let me stress I am not out to make a doom-and-gloom prediction as I, like, many others, believe there will be a strong policy response before the market closes on Friday. On that note, here is a menu of potential response scenarios – in random order and with no preference.

•    China revalues to help the world reset its imbalances (as stimulus is not on the agenda. Note also how CNY has appreciated slightly over the last few days)
•    Operation Twist announced tonight in FOMC meeting (targeting yields at the longer end of the curve)
•    Japan commits publicly to buy Europe- and US government bonds in a move supported by the world’s largest 100 companies and their cash hoards.
•    ECB lowers its rates to zero
•    Germany commits in full to EFSF – and de facto creates and guarantees an EFSF of over EUR 2.5 trillion. (Likely leading to downgrade of German sovereign debt)
•    In the US, President Obama calls for a bank holiday
•    EU enacts a short selling ban – (Greece did so this morning and so has Korea) – followed up by a G-20 move to do the same
•    G-7 intervention in JPY and CHF – with China’s assistance
•    Closing of all markets to get a solution before a Monday reopening.

 

We are entering a phase where a belief in practical, smooth solutions has become difficult – and it should also be noted that the riot in London, the protests in Israel, and rising tension in Italy are not helping the situation – unfortunately it seems that most of our Q3 Outlook predictions are holding true: maximum uncertainty, a global slow-down, buying time and finally, increased social tension.
 
This is not yet 2008 all over again – corporations are in a better place than in 2008 with far less leverage – companies with access to capital and markets will do well – there are hundreds of good opportunities in stocks around, but the overall exercise of “buying the momentum” has run out of time.
 
I remain with my neutral stance on risk as this market is almost un-tradable. I’m looking for some sort of a rally based on one or several of the above policy responses, the magnitude and substance of this rally will dictate my next outright risk-taking.
 
Let me underline that for now I am continuing to see the market pricing higher odds that we see a “Euro-Mark” (a Euro-zone sans the weakest of the periphery), rather than the belief that politicians (read: Germany) will eventually step up and make the necessary commitment to secure the survival of the EU.
 
The downside risk remains and a test of 1.000 in the S&P in the autumn could unfortunately be the price we need to pay for the inability of the policy makers to get ahead of the curve.
 
For now it remains to heed the advice of J.P Morgan when asked how he became rich he answered: “I took my profit too early”.