Baidu.com - NASDAQ: BIDU crashed - dieses Jahr noch unter 30 US Dollar? (Seite 167)
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3 Things to Consider Ahead of Baidu's 2Q Earnings
by: Xiaofan Zhang July 23, 2009 |
Baidu (BIDU) will report 2Q09 earnings today after market close. I expect Baidu to report revenue of $160 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.58.
Below are my three key thoughts/findings:
Do not worry about Phoenix Nest. During 2Q09, the most significant development at Baidu was the April 20 launch of Phoenix Nest, a new bidding platform for Baidu's advertising customers. Baidu said this system will better separate ads from organic search results. This has caused some investors to worry that the click-through rate for Baidu ads will be lower, which will hurt its 2Q results.
However, my tests on various search keywords shows such concern is unnecessary: As of today, Phoenix Nest has not been implemented on keywords that are both popular and commerically valuable, such as "Car", "Cell Phone", and "Hotel". These core commercial keywords are still managed by Baidu Classic Edition, the old system. Phoenix Nest has been implemented on keywords that either has low traffic or receives very few bids from advertisers. These keywords are not significant revenue contributors anyway. Therefore, I believe Phoenix Nest has had very limited impact on Baidu's 2Q09 results.
Baidu has a proven track record of beating guidance and analyst estimates. The table below shows that Baidu's quarterly results have beat guidance and analysts' estimates most of the time. History is on Baidu's side. It clearly shows that it's risky to bet that Baidu will miss either its guidance or analysts' consensus estimates.
Tomorrow's price movement will depend on investors' opinions on 3Q09 guidance. Despite the great track record, the table shows Baidu's stock has not always risen in the first trading day after it reported results. The reason is that Baidu gives guidance for the next quarter in addition to reporting results of the past quarter. If investors feel the guidance for the next quarter is too bearish, Baidu's stock will drop.
Having said that, Baidu normally beats its own guidance when they report quarterly earnings (see table above). This means Baidu's guidance has been conservative most of the time.
Investors who read too much into next quarter's guidance will likely miss the big picture and engage in unnecessary short-term trades.
by: Xiaofan Zhang July 23, 2009 |
Baidu (BIDU) will report 2Q09 earnings today after market close. I expect Baidu to report revenue of $160 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.58.
Below are my three key thoughts/findings:
Do not worry about Phoenix Nest. During 2Q09, the most significant development at Baidu was the April 20 launch of Phoenix Nest, a new bidding platform for Baidu's advertising customers. Baidu said this system will better separate ads from organic search results. This has caused some investors to worry that the click-through rate for Baidu ads will be lower, which will hurt its 2Q results.
However, my tests on various search keywords shows such concern is unnecessary: As of today, Phoenix Nest has not been implemented on keywords that are both popular and commerically valuable, such as "Car", "Cell Phone", and "Hotel". These core commercial keywords are still managed by Baidu Classic Edition, the old system. Phoenix Nest has been implemented on keywords that either has low traffic or receives very few bids from advertisers. These keywords are not significant revenue contributors anyway. Therefore, I believe Phoenix Nest has had very limited impact on Baidu's 2Q09 results.
Baidu has a proven track record of beating guidance and analyst estimates. The table below shows that Baidu's quarterly results have beat guidance and analysts' estimates most of the time. History is on Baidu's side. It clearly shows that it's risky to bet that Baidu will miss either its guidance or analysts' consensus estimates.
Tomorrow's price movement will depend on investors' opinions on 3Q09 guidance. Despite the great track record, the table shows Baidu's stock has not always risen in the first trading day after it reported results. The reason is that Baidu gives guidance for the next quarter in addition to reporting results of the past quarter. If investors feel the guidance for the next quarter is too bearish, Baidu's stock will drop.
Having said that, Baidu normally beats its own guidance when they report quarterly earnings (see table above). This means Baidu's guidance has been conservative most of the time.
Investors who read too much into next quarter's guidance will likely miss the big picture and engage in unnecessary short-term trades.
Baidu -- A Sleeping Giant Awakens
By Michael Bonfils , July 22, 2009
The name "Baidu" comes from an 800-year-old Chinese poem referring to one man's passionate search for his lover in a festival crowd. Eight hundred years later, that festival crowd has swelled to 298 million online people. That's just about the population of every man, woman, and child in the United States.
And there's still potential for more growth in China. According to China Internet Network Information, they've only reached around 23 percent of their inhabitants, whereas other modern Asian nations average 70 percent penetration rate of their population online.
According to Chinese research firm iResearch, Baidu, the search engine of choice for this dynamic culture, continues to lead the market with a solid 73 percent market share in comparison to its closest rival, Google (a.k.a. "GuGe") with 22 percent.
As an international online advertiser, it would be tough to ignore the scale of this search engine. However, there are some long-overdue changes coming from the Chinese Internet giant that will likely impact short-term advertising results for better long-term results.
Bid Rank
Before Baidu was even a twinkle in the eye of its founder, in February 1998, the U.S.-based paid search engine GoTo.com offered advertisers one of the first models of bidding for placement. Their search engine had no right-hand column, nor did it have a special "sponsored" section. All paid results were simply placed on top of each other with organic results following when it ran out of advertisers.
Baidu's legacy model, which they've termed the "Classic Edition," is very similar to GoTo.com, with paid links appearing as the top search results followed by the organic search listings. The only difference is that they point out if the listing is a paid or an organic result, although it isn't really clear to users. The right hand column is different as well; most of the links are based on a flat monthly fee with some broad match paid ads following them.
Baidu Classic
click to enlarge
Soon things would change. Heavy advertiser and consumer criticism, plus Baidu's profit-per-search revenue being nowhere close to Google's, forced the company's management to take a second look at their model and to come up with a new solution. This new system, known to Baidu as "Phoenix Nest" (Fengchao), looks and behaves a lot like Google's AdWords program.
Phoenix Nest
Baidu's Phoenix Nest platform (a.k.a. "Professional Edition") reduces the total amount of paid links appearing together with the organic search engine results. It offers at least the top three positions, as well as the right side column, for paid links.
The new system display looks nearly identical to Google's AdWords. However, the sophistication behind Baidu's ranking methodology may be far inferior. Although it's too early to tell if there are factors beyond automated CTR analysis and bid pricing, some human intervention may also be an aspect for positioning.
Baidu Phoenix Nest
click to enlarge
The transition to Baidu's Professional Edition for customers began in June. Based on some early results with some of our own clients, we've seen search volume decline from the positions that used to be in the main search results, but now on the right column. Moreover, organic results are providing much more traffic then ever.
Although there is no official Baidu editorial guidelines document for the Phoenix Nest system, Baidu provided us with the following system limitations:
* Title: 13 Chinese characters
* Ad Copy Line 1: 18 Chinese characters
* Ad Copy Line 2: 18 Chinese characters
* URL with Tracking codes: 1,107 English characters
* Display URL: 26 English characters
Sleeping Giant Waking Up?
Is this a potential disaster for Baidu, or could it be a blessing in disguise? In the short term, it would probably be in Baidu's best interest to carefully evaluate user behavior so users understand that the right column is now relevant to their search.
Chinese users who have become accustomed to ignoring the right column, as the relevancy wasn't nearly as strong, may be less inclined to even notice the difference. At the same time, Baidu has created a spammers dream for organic results. For example, the Baidu algorithm is not as sophisticated as Google's -- the engine factors the quantity of links rather than quality of links as one of the determinations in ranking.
Considering the risk, will this drive users away to the Google China search engine? Is this perfect timing for Microsoft's Chinese version of Bing to enter the market? Are we witnessing what happened to Yahoo in the U.S., about to happen to Baidu?
To the Chinese, Baidu is to them what Google is to many of us in the United States, a company they're very proud to call their own; it almost touches them in a patriotic way. It will continue to grow and the new changes most likely won't make a dent in terms of market share. Yet Baidu potentially faces some risks in short-term search revenue if people don't click on the right-column results.
In the long term, it's likely to be a blessing in disguise; people will get used to the new platform and may even favor more relevant paid links over potentially spam-ridden organic links. Advertisers put in a more competitive environment would move to further sophistication, driving up CPCs and finding a new need for the use of stronger analytics.
Join us for Search Engine Strategies San Jose, August 10-14, 2009, at the McEnery Convention Center.
By Michael Bonfils , July 22, 2009
The name "Baidu" comes from an 800-year-old Chinese poem referring to one man's passionate search for his lover in a festival crowd. Eight hundred years later, that festival crowd has swelled to 298 million online people. That's just about the population of every man, woman, and child in the United States.
And there's still potential for more growth in China. According to China Internet Network Information, they've only reached around 23 percent of their inhabitants, whereas other modern Asian nations average 70 percent penetration rate of their population online.
According to Chinese research firm iResearch, Baidu, the search engine of choice for this dynamic culture, continues to lead the market with a solid 73 percent market share in comparison to its closest rival, Google (a.k.a. "GuGe") with 22 percent.
As an international online advertiser, it would be tough to ignore the scale of this search engine. However, there are some long-overdue changes coming from the Chinese Internet giant that will likely impact short-term advertising results for better long-term results.
Bid Rank
Before Baidu was even a twinkle in the eye of its founder, in February 1998, the U.S.-based paid search engine GoTo.com offered advertisers one of the first models of bidding for placement. Their search engine had no right-hand column, nor did it have a special "sponsored" section. All paid results were simply placed on top of each other with organic results following when it ran out of advertisers.
Baidu's legacy model, which they've termed the "Classic Edition," is very similar to GoTo.com, with paid links appearing as the top search results followed by the organic search listings. The only difference is that they point out if the listing is a paid or an organic result, although it isn't really clear to users. The right hand column is different as well; most of the links are based on a flat monthly fee with some broad match paid ads following them.
Baidu Classic
click to enlarge
Soon things would change. Heavy advertiser and consumer criticism, plus Baidu's profit-per-search revenue being nowhere close to Google's, forced the company's management to take a second look at their model and to come up with a new solution. This new system, known to Baidu as "Phoenix Nest" (Fengchao), looks and behaves a lot like Google's AdWords program.
Phoenix Nest
Baidu's Phoenix Nest platform (a.k.a. "Professional Edition") reduces the total amount of paid links appearing together with the organic search engine results. It offers at least the top three positions, as well as the right side column, for paid links.
The new system display looks nearly identical to Google's AdWords. However, the sophistication behind Baidu's ranking methodology may be far inferior. Although it's too early to tell if there are factors beyond automated CTR analysis and bid pricing, some human intervention may also be an aspect for positioning.
Baidu Phoenix Nest
click to enlarge
The transition to Baidu's Professional Edition for customers began in June. Based on some early results with some of our own clients, we've seen search volume decline from the positions that used to be in the main search results, but now on the right column. Moreover, organic results are providing much more traffic then ever.
Although there is no official Baidu editorial guidelines document for the Phoenix Nest system, Baidu provided us with the following system limitations:
* Title: 13 Chinese characters
* Ad Copy Line 1: 18 Chinese characters
* Ad Copy Line 2: 18 Chinese characters
* URL with Tracking codes: 1,107 English characters
* Display URL: 26 English characters
Sleeping Giant Waking Up?
Is this a potential disaster for Baidu, or could it be a blessing in disguise? In the short term, it would probably be in Baidu's best interest to carefully evaluate user behavior so users understand that the right column is now relevant to their search.
Chinese users who have become accustomed to ignoring the right column, as the relevancy wasn't nearly as strong, may be less inclined to even notice the difference. At the same time, Baidu has created a spammers dream for organic results. For example, the Baidu algorithm is not as sophisticated as Google's -- the engine factors the quantity of links rather than quality of links as one of the determinations in ranking.
Considering the risk, will this drive users away to the Google China search engine? Is this perfect timing for Microsoft's Chinese version of Bing to enter the market? Are we witnessing what happened to Yahoo in the U.S., about to happen to Baidu?
To the Chinese, Baidu is to them what Google is to many of us in the United States, a company they're very proud to call their own; it almost touches them in a patriotic way. It will continue to grow and the new changes most likely won't make a dent in terms of market share. Yet Baidu potentially faces some risks in short-term search revenue if people don't click on the right-column results.
In the long term, it's likely to be a blessing in disguise; people will get used to the new platform and may even favor more relevant paid links over potentially spam-ridden organic links. Advertisers put in a more competitive environment would move to further sophistication, driving up CPCs and finding a new need for the use of stronger analytics.
Join us for Search Engine Strategies San Jose, August 10-14, 2009, at the McEnery Convention Center.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.618.923 von Pinki70 am 21.07.09 23:25:56Moin, Pinki,
für mich persönlich muß es nicht unbedingt Asien sein.
Ich halte noch die amerikanische Rockwood und Polypore. Für mich
2 sehr interessante Werte mit Potential, um am Lithiumboom zu provi-
tieren. Natürlich kannst Du Dir auch eine Alibaba mit ins Depot
packen, die sind aber auch schon gigantisch bewertet, und wenns mal
dünn wird, kann es auch schnell rolltreppe abwärts gehen.
Gruß Karlll
für mich persönlich muß es nicht unbedingt Asien sein.
Ich halte noch die amerikanische Rockwood und Polypore. Für mich
2 sehr interessante Werte mit Potential, um am Lithiumboom zu provi-
tieren. Natürlich kannst Du Dir auch eine Alibaba mit ins Depot
packen, die sind aber auch schon gigantisch bewertet, und wenns mal
dünn wird, kann es auch schnell rolltreppe abwärts gehen.
Gruß Karlll
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.363.477 von Karlll am 10.06.09 14:49:58Hallo Karill,
hast du noch einen guten Tipp für mich. Hab Liquide mittel frei. BYD und Baidu, hab ich bereits im Depot. Möchte gerne nur eine 3 starke kraft in mein Asien Pack packen.
gruß Pinki
hast du noch einen guten Tipp für mich. Hab Liquide mittel frei. BYD und Baidu, hab ich bereits im Depot. Möchte gerne nur eine 3 starke kraft in mein Asien Pack packen.
gruß Pinki
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.545.606 von Karlll am 10.07.09 06:25:19ne, bei über 200€ ist mir die Aktie zu teuer um gleich mehrere Hundert Stück zu kaufen
werde sie mir auf meine wachtlist setzen
werde sie mir auf meine wachtlist setzen
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.545.507 von Gnuechtel am 10.07.09 00:51:59Nun, ich bin in Frankfurt immer gut zum Zuge gekommen, auch bei
Limitvorgabe.
Es sei denn, Du möchtest gleich mehrere hundert Stück erwerben !?
Gruß Karlll
Limitvorgabe.
Es sei denn, Du möchtest gleich mehrere hundert Stück erwerben !?
Gruß Karlll
Ich bin durch sharewise auch auf diese Interessante Aktie gestoßen.
...würde mir die Aktie gerne kaufen, aber die Umsätze hier in Deutschland sind ein bisschen dürftig.
...würde mir die Aktie gerne kaufen, aber die Umsätze hier in Deutschland sind ein bisschen dürftig.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.543.574 von enzofran am 09.07.09 19:03:47Feiner Artikel, Enzo, vielen Dank.
Karlll
Karlll
Hallo!
Ich habe hier eine hochinteressante Analyse der Baidu.com Aktie gefunden. Stammt von Rainer Hahn von EMFIS.com, also einem absoluten Fachmann in Sachen asiatische Märkte. Aber lest selbst: http://tr.im/rAEV!
LG Enzo
Ich habe hier eine hochinteressante Analyse der Baidu.com Aktie gefunden. Stammt von Rainer Hahn von EMFIS.com, also einem absoluten Fachmann in Sachen asiatische Märkte. Aber lest selbst: http://tr.im/rAEV!
LG Enzo
!
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Baidu.com - NASDAQ: BIDU crashed - dieses Jahr noch unter 30 US Dollar?
