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ISIN: US36162J1060 · WKN: A11662 · Symbol: GEG
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| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
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| 1,3000 | +128,07 | |
| 1,0100 | +60,32 | |
| 78,25 | +25,18 | |
| 1,6000 | +23,08 | |
| 30,00 | +18,81 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 4,1700 | -14,90 | |
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| 9,3500 | -44,67 |
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.495.940 von websin am 17.03.21 15:22:25Also ich frage mich echt was die mit den Leer stehenden Haftanstalten dann machen wollen
wie will the Geo group Geld verdienen in Zukunft wenn jetzt reihenweise die Verträge gekündigt werden?
wie will the Geo group Geld verdienen in Zukunft wenn jetzt reihenweise die Verträge gekündigt werden?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.463.393 von thoraab am 15.03.21 15:32:44GEO has requested a contract extension from the USMS in order to provide for a proper transition. The potential non-renewal of the contract for the Queens Detention Facility, which generated approximately $19 million in annualized revenues,
was not previously assumed
in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021.
Kam wohl nicht an, daher nochmal etwas deutlicher.
was not previously assumed
in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021.
Kam wohl nicht an, daher nochmal etwas deutlicher.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.462.355 von Aurcaner am 15.03.21 14:36:44ich frag mich langsam echt ob wir hier nochmal 10 Euro Plus wieder sehen und ob es Klug ist hier auf Sicht von 2-3 Jahren investiert zu bleiben
Ob The Geo Group es schafft ein Geschäftsmodel so zu verändern das trotzdem Einnahmen generiert werden.
Ob The Geo Group es schafft ein Geschäftsmodel so zu verändern das trotzdem Einnahmen generiert werden.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.463.393 von thoraab am 15.03.21 15:32:44Kleiner Tipp zur Einordnung bzw. zu deiner angenommenen Auswirkung auf den Kurs: Lies mal noch mal die erste Hälfte des von dir zitierten, fett angezeigten Satzes.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.462.355 von Aurcaner am 15.03.21 14:36:44
BOCA RATON, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO”) announced today that the U.S. Marshals Service (“USMS”) has notified GEO of a non-renewal of the contract for the company-owned, 222-bed Queens Detention Facility ending March 31, 2021. GEO has requested a contract extension from the USMS in order to provide for a proper transition. The potential non-renewal of the contract for the Queens Detention Facility, which generated approximately $19 million in annualized revenues, was not previously assumed in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021. If the contract is not extended or renewed, GEO expects to market the Queens Detention Facility to other government agencies.
Hi Es scheint das dieser Vertrag "was not previously assumed in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021." so das heisst 2021 Zahlen werden wohl revidiert werden muessen wenn dieser nicht verlaengert wird , wundere mich das dies so kurzfristig nicht verlaengert wird sind ja gerade nur noch 2 Wochen bis zum 31 igsten ..das kann ja den kurs wieder in Bedraengis bringen.
Zitat von Aurcaner: Nächster Vertrag mit US-Regierung, der zum 31.3.21 ausläuft und (vorerst?) Nicht verlängert wird....
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/13636301-the-geo-…
BOCA RATON, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO”) announced today that the U.S. Marshals Service (“USMS”) has notified GEO of a non-renewal of the contract for the company-owned, 222-bed Queens Detention Facility ending March 31, 2021. GEO has requested a contract extension from the USMS in order to provide for a proper transition. The potential non-renewal of the contract for the Queens Detention Facility, which generated approximately $19 million in annualized revenues, was not previously assumed in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021. If the contract is not extended or renewed, GEO expects to market the Queens Detention Facility to other government agencies.
Hi Es scheint das dieser Vertrag "was not previously assumed in GEO’s current financial guidance for 2021." so das heisst 2021 Zahlen werden wohl revidiert werden muessen wenn dieser nicht verlaengert wird , wundere mich das dies so kurzfristig nicht verlaengert wird sind ja gerade nur noch 2 Wochen bis zum 31 igsten ..das kann ja den kurs wieder in Bedraengis bringen.
Trading Spotlight
Nächster Vertrag mit US-Regierung, der zum 31.3.21 ausläuft und (vorerst?) Nicht verlängert wird....
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/13636301-the-geo-…
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/13636301-the-geo-…
Michael Burry Buys the Private Prisons
GEO GROUP INC. GEO $7,488 Mio - 845,152 Shares New Position
CORECIVIC INC. CXW $6,550 Mio - 1,000,000 Shares New Position
The other set of new positions I thought was interesting were the recent buys of both major private prison operators: CoreCivic and The Geo Group. These firms have been hit by political risk recently, with President Biden issuing an executive order to the Justice Department to discontinue private prison use. That, along with lower prisoner populations and increased costs due to COVID-19, has meaningfully hurt the shares. Concerns around debt levels, and CoreCivic's dividend cut (presumably to re-direct cash toward debt repayment) have also punished the firm's share prices.
On the other hand, it seems likely at this point that this bad news is largely priced in, and the firms trade at extremely low valuations. This piece by author Dane Bowler focuses on CoreCivic, and notes that the biggest customer is ICE With ICE part of Homeland Security and not Justice, that order presumably doesn't apply to them. And at the current valuation, there are a number of possible ways for these firms to win - including by either selling or leasing their existing properties to government agencies to operate instead of operating the properties themselves. Both of those would likely be huge catalysts at the current valuations, and would also solve a political issue for the administration, which will want to keep its promise of no private prisons without necessarily releasing everyone who is incarcerated in them.
Conclusion
Dr. Burry has a track record that makes studying his positions worthwhile. While some investors like to "clone" guru portfolios, I think independent thinking provides its own value, and I find if I make my own selections I'm more likely to know when it makes sense to double down and when to sell. But I do think there is a great deal of value in looking at the portfolios of exceptional investors. Especially to see what themes they are investing in. I manage a lot less money than Michael Burry, so I focus on small stocks, where there is less competition. But I find trying to understand his thought process has made me a better investor, which is why I evaluate his positions every quarter.
I think his picks on private prisons are especially interesting. They are a deeply out of favor industry at present, which is a common thread throughout his investing. It was also true of GameStop when he bought that firm. The challenge with following the picks of a famous investor is that we don't know if there are offsetting short positions as hedges, and the information on when they sell comes with a considerable delay. That's why it's always important to independently consider all portfolio decisions.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406847-assessing-michael-b…
Michael Burry runs Scion Asset Management.
Michael Burry predicted the mortgage collapse and made huge profits as profiled in the movie "The Big Short"
GEO GROUP INC. GEO $7,488 Mio - 845,152 Shares New Position
CORECIVIC INC. CXW $6,550 Mio - 1,000,000 Shares New Position
The other set of new positions I thought was interesting were the recent buys of both major private prison operators: CoreCivic and The Geo Group. These firms have been hit by political risk recently, with President Biden issuing an executive order to the Justice Department to discontinue private prison use. That, along with lower prisoner populations and increased costs due to COVID-19, has meaningfully hurt the shares. Concerns around debt levels, and CoreCivic's dividend cut (presumably to re-direct cash toward debt repayment) have also punished the firm's share prices.
On the other hand, it seems likely at this point that this bad news is largely priced in, and the firms trade at extremely low valuations. This piece by author Dane Bowler focuses on CoreCivic, and notes that the biggest customer is ICE With ICE part of Homeland Security and not Justice, that order presumably doesn't apply to them. And at the current valuation, there are a number of possible ways for these firms to win - including by either selling or leasing their existing properties to government agencies to operate instead of operating the properties themselves. Both of those would likely be huge catalysts at the current valuations, and would also solve a political issue for the administration, which will want to keep its promise of no private prisons without necessarily releasing everyone who is incarcerated in them.
Conclusion
Dr. Burry has a track record that makes studying his positions worthwhile. While some investors like to "clone" guru portfolios, I think independent thinking provides its own value, and I find if I make my own selections I'm more likely to know when it makes sense to double down and when to sell. But I do think there is a great deal of value in looking at the portfolios of exceptional investors. Especially to see what themes they are investing in. I manage a lot less money than Michael Burry, so I focus on small stocks, where there is less competition. But I find trying to understand his thought process has made me a better investor, which is why I evaluate his positions every quarter.
I think his picks on private prisons are especially interesting. They are a deeply out of favor industry at present, which is a common thread throughout his investing. It was also true of GameStop when he bought that firm. The challenge with following the picks of a famous investor is that we don't know if there are offsetting short positions as hedges, and the information on when they sell comes with a considerable delay. That's why it's always important to independently consider all portfolio decisions.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406847-assessing-michael-b…
Michael Burry runs Scion Asset Management.
Michael Burry predicted the mortgage collapse and made huge profits as profiled in the movie "The Big Short"
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.229.367 von lazy_invest am 26.02.21 23:13:45
Ergänzung dazu: Zukünftig sollte man natürlich mit weniger rechnen. Wenn wir 2 USD aus dem Ausblick anvisieren, sind wir bei einem Multiple von 3,6 und 27,7% Rendite.
Zitat von lazy_invest: 2020 AFFO bei 2,51 USD ergibt ein beim aktuellen Kurs ein Multiple von unter 3 bzw. eine Cash-Rendite von 34,86% (!).
Ergänzung dazu: Zukünftig sollte man natürlich mit weniger rechnen. Wenn wir 2 USD aus dem Ausblick anvisieren, sind wir bei einem Multiple von 3,6 und 27,7% Rendite.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 67.209.885 von Andrija am 25.02.21 22:55:39Oder man kommt nicht in die Pötte und schliesst aus Alternativlosigkeit noch mehrere (vermutlich teurere) Quartalsverträge ab, auch nicht auszuschliessen bei der Politik. Wäre natürlich nicht optimal, weil die Unsicherheit bleibt.
Zur Erinnerung:
➢ All investment grade customers
➢ Required by law to pay on time: 45-60 days
➢ No receivables problems
➢ Payment schedule: monthly billing
➢ Majority of contracts include fixed monthly payments
➢ Company-wide occupancy averages in the mid-90s
➢ Contract terms: average length of 7-10 years
➢ Customer retention: in excess of 90%
Quelle: https://s25.q4cdn.com/995724548/files/doc_downloads/2021/02/…
2020 AFFO bei 2,51 USD ergibt ein beim aktuellen Kurs ein Multiple von unter 3 bzw. eine Cash-Rendite von 34,86% (!). Bei angenommener Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Vertragstreue (Vertragslänge s.o.) ist GEO deutlich zu günstig, egal was Biden grad vom Stapel lässt.
Ach ja und es gibt natürlich auch noch Schulden: Nach der kürzlichen Refinanzierung ist die nächste Anleihe im April 2023 fällig, bis dahin (bzw. zur anstehenden Refinanzierung) ist erstmal Ruhe. Ich gehe davon aus, dass ein Teil durch den laufenden Cashflow bis Frühjahr 2022 bereits zurückgekauft werden wird.
Bei 6,50 USD wäre ich versucht, noch mal etwas aufzustocken. Fraglich ist und bleibt aber, wie sich Corona weiter auswirkt und wie lange der Verkaufsdruck aus ideologischen/ethischen Gründen anhält.
Zur Erinnerung:
➢ All investment grade customers
➢ Required by law to pay on time: 45-60 days
➢ No receivables problems
➢ Payment schedule: monthly billing
➢ Majority of contracts include fixed monthly payments
➢ Company-wide occupancy averages in the mid-90s
➢ Contract terms: average length of 7-10 years
➢ Customer retention: in excess of 90%
Quelle: https://s25.q4cdn.com/995724548/files/doc_downloads/2021/02/…
2020 AFFO bei 2,51 USD ergibt ein beim aktuellen Kurs ein Multiple von unter 3 bzw. eine Cash-Rendite von 34,86% (!). Bei angenommener Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Vertragstreue (Vertragslänge s.o.) ist GEO deutlich zu günstig, egal was Biden grad vom Stapel lässt.
Ach ja und es gibt natürlich auch noch Schulden: Nach der kürzlichen Refinanzierung ist die nächste Anleihe im April 2023 fällig, bis dahin (bzw. zur anstehenden Refinanzierung) ist erstmal Ruhe. Ich gehe davon aus, dass ein Teil durch den laufenden Cashflow bis Frühjahr 2022 bereits zurückgekauft werden wird.
Bei 6,50 USD wäre ich versucht, noch mal etwas aufzustocken. Fraglich ist und bleibt aber, wie sich Corona weiter auswirkt und wie lange der Verkaufsdruck aus ideologischen/ethischen Gründen anhält.
CoreCivic, Inc.
Thu, February 25, 2021, 10:15 PM·5 min read
BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Feb. 25, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (the Company) announced today that, effective March 1, 2021, it has entered into a 90-day contract extension with the United States Marshals Service ("USMS") at the Company's 2,016-bed Northeast Ohio Correctional Center. The USMS has notified the Company that it does not anticipate extending the contract following the 90-day extension.
While the Company is not currently aware of alternative locations where the USMS can house the approximately 800 federal detainees currently located at the Northeast Ohio facility, President Biden recently issued an executive order directing the Department of Justice not to renew contracts with privately operated criminal detention facilities.
Nun wird es ja langsam spannend. Was macht die US-Regierung mit den ganzen Gefangenen? Vielleicht ringt man sich ja zu einem Kaufangebot durch? Wirkt aktuell etwas konzeptionslos und ideologisch. Nach einem Vierteljahr sollte es dann ein schlüssiges Konzept geben sonst hätte man ja nicht solange verlängert.
Thu, February 25, 2021, 10:15 PM·5 min read
BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Feb. 25, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (the Company) announced today that, effective March 1, 2021, it has entered into a 90-day contract extension with the United States Marshals Service ("USMS") at the Company's 2,016-bed Northeast Ohio Correctional Center. The USMS has notified the Company that it does not anticipate extending the contract following the 90-day extension.
While the Company is not currently aware of alternative locations where the USMS can house the approximately 800 federal detainees currently located at the Northeast Ohio facility, President Biden recently issued an executive order directing the Department of Justice not to renew contracts with privately operated criminal detention facilities.
Nun wird es ja langsam spannend. Was macht die US-Regierung mit den ganzen Gefangenen? Vielleicht ringt man sich ja zu einem Kaufangebot durch? Wirkt aktuell etwas konzeptionslos und ideologisch. Nach einem Vierteljahr sollte es dann ein schlüssiges Konzept geben sonst hätte man ja nicht solange verlängert.
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