B2Gold: Der Top-Performer im Goldsektor, WKN A0M889 (Seite 112)
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ISIN: CA11777Q2099 · WKN: A0M889 · Symbol: BTO
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Why B2Gold Is About To Be Re-Rated Higher
Sep.19.17 | About: B2Gold Corp. (BTG)
Summary
The valuation of BTG has declined over the last 6 months, and the lofty market cap was a factor that was also holding me back at the time.
There is also a major bullish catalyst about to hit, as the company's Fekola mine will commence production in less than two weeks.
Other developments help to further support my bull thesis.
I'm buying BTG as I believe the stock will see a 30-35% gain from current levels.
Analysis
I have been avoiding B2Gold (BTG) for a while now because I saw better valuations, more upside potential, and lower near-term risks in other names. Recently, though, I have turned bullish on the company, and I'm much more constructive on the stock. There are five reasons for my change in position:
1. The Valuation Has Declined
BTG has been on the more expensive end since the summer of 2016. Back in February of this year, the stock was actually re-testing its highs from the previous August. It was only 2% from its peak, even though the rest of the mining sector was still down significantly on average.
Chart BTG data by YCharts
At the time, I felt that a company like Gold Fields (GFI) and other gold stocks were much better bargains. Since then, BTG is down over 24%, the HUI is down about 3%, and Gold Fields is up 29%. In other words, BTG's valuation has been aggressively contracting while others have been roughly flat to aggressively expanding - making B2Gold much cheaper on a relative basis than it has been in a while.
Chart BTG data by YCharts
2. There Is A Major Positive Catalyst About To Hit
The company's Fekola mine will commence production in less than two weeks (October 1). This will result in a substantial increase in output next year, as Fekola is expected to average 375,000 to 400,000 ounces of gold per year for the first five years of production (2018 to 2022) and 365,000 to 390,000 ounces per year over the first seven years of production (2018 to 2024). All total, B2Gold will be producing just under 1 million ounces of gold in 2018, with AISC expected to be between $780 to $810 per ounce. I remember when this company was just a 100,000 ounce producer, as they only had the El Limon and La Libertad mines in their portfolio. The growth over the last seven years has been astounding.
(Source: B2Gold)
Fekola is on budget and actually three months ahead of schedule. The mine is expected to contribute possibly 55,000 ounces of gold production in Q4 of this year.
B2Gold has been expending quite a bit of cash on Fekola over the last two years, which means free cash flow has been suffering greatly. Total capex for the three and six months ended June 30, 2017, was $75.0 million and $142.8 million, respectively. To date, the company has spent $513.9 million on the Fekola project, and that includes $41 million of preconstruction expenditures.
The good news is, construction is now basically complete. So while Fekola has been a negative catalyst for the last 1-2 years, it's about to flip to a positive one. Free cash flow will dramatically improve starting next quarter, and it will continue to build as Fekola ramps up. The shares aren't pricing in this drastic increase in production and cash flow. A re-rating will likely occur over the next several months as the mine enters production and starts contributing to FCF - instead of being a drain on it.
There is still upside to Fekola, as more ounces are being discovered in and around the deposit. The Kiwi zone, which isn't part of the mine plan, is just north of the proposed pit limits of the Fekola Deposit and contains high-grade gold at very shallow depths. B2Gold has also had very strong intercepts at Fekola Deeps. Grade in this deeper extension of the Fekola deposit is solid and widths are impressive as well. It remains open down plunge.
(Source: B2Gold)
3. Concerns About Masbate Have Eased
Last year, the Masbate mine was under threat of being shut down. A new President had been elected in the Philippines, and he had warned that he could cancel mining projects that were causing environmental harm. Not that Masbate was doing such thing, but there was concern that many mines in the country might have been, and Masbate was being grouped in with all of these.
In the mining audit released back in February by the Philippine government, Masbate was not among the mines announced to be suspended or closed. Although B2Gold still hasn't received any formal written notice from the DENR, so this matter isn't resolved entirely.
However, according to B2Gold:
The Masbate operations were recently presented with the DENR's Saringaya Award for its contribution to environmental protection, conservation, and management in the regions surrounding the Masbate Mine. The Saringaya Award is considered the DENR's most prestigious regional environmental award.
It would seem odd to award Masbate with the highest environmental award and then shut it down for environmental reasons. In other words, while this was a concern last year, recent developments seem to indicate that Masbate is highly likely to remain in production. I would also like to point out that the government appears to have softened its stance and is more open to mining companies operating in the country - providing they are meeting the strict environmental regulations. As a result of these developments, the jurisdictional risk for Masbate has been greatly reduced.
4. Masbate And Otjikoto Are Outperforming
B2Gold took down guidance for the year back in July, as production for 2017 is now expected to be 530,000-570,000 ounces of gold compared to 545,000-595,000 ounces in the original guidance.
The culprits are the Nicaraguan mines, as La Libertad and El Limon are underperforming. To me, this is inconsequential as La Libertad and El Limon aren't nearly as important as they were before. In fact, it was reported last year that B2Gold was looking to sell these two mines. I wouldn't be surprised if they did jettison these assets in the near future. What investors should instead be focused on, is that Masbate and Otjikoto are actually coming in at the top end of guidance or slightly exceeding it. These are the two largest operations currently in production. Going forward, what matters most to the company is Fekola, Masbate, and Otjikoto. As long as those are performing well, then so will the stock price. I do also want to point out that gold production at El Limon is expected to return to more normal levels by the fourth quarter of 2017, and La Libertad's production is expected to increase in 2018 and 2019. I don't know if these two assets will still be in the portfolio in a year or two, but if they are, they are at least expected to see a turnaround.
(Source: B2Gold)
The outperformance from Masbate and Otjikoto is also allowing B2Gold to maintain cost guidance even though production was lowered for the year. Their outlook for AISC is still between $940 and $970 per ounce.
While the Nicaraguan mines are seeing much higher than expected AISC, it's being offset by the strength at Masbate and Otjikoto. Masbate's full-year AISC are expected to be between $935 and $975 per ounce. The original guidance was $1,020 to $1,050 per ounce. Otjikoto's full-year AISC are now expected to be between $725 and $765 per ounce, compared to the original guidance of $855 to $885 per ounce.
The Otjikoto mine is showing very strong performance against the forecasted model. Production is coming in well above expectations as the grade and ore tonnage from the Wolfshag pit is better than anticipated. The mill throughput is also higher than planned.
Year to date, gold production at the Otjikoto Mine was 83,937 ounces, that's 17% above budget (or 12,355 ounces). The average gold grade processed in Q2 was 1.50 g/t (1.38 g/t was expected), as all ore processed from the oxide and transition portions of the Wolfshag pit are coming in higher than the resource model. B2Gold is analyzing whether this positive reconciliation continues throughout the Wolfshag orebody.
B2Gold is also seeing solid exploration potential at depth (down plunge) at Otjikoto. This is an important asset for the company and it's not only performing extremely well, but there is still upside to this mine.
5. The Chart Is Bullish
The stock was looking especially precarious this past April as it broke down below the 200-day moving average. At the time, I warned subscribers of The Gold Edge about how it would likely retest the December lows of around $2.10, given the breakdown. BTG did in fact almost retest $2.10 a few weeks later.
Since then, it has rebounded, and the chart is more bullish. The series of higher lows, combined with the continuous sideways trading pattern and recent recapture of the MA (200), has better defined the technical picture and parameters. The shares are just below the 200-day at the moment, but this isn't a breakdown yet. The stock is still in a good position for a move to the previous highs from last year.
(Source: StockCharts.com)
Negative Factors
1. B2Gold's balance sheet isn't as strong as it has been in the past because of the buildout of Fekola. Cash and cash equivalents last quarter were just $88.19 million, while debt has climbed to over $580 million in order to fund construction of this important project.
Chart BTG Cash and Equivalents (Quarterly) data by YCharts
However, while the cash balance is low, the company still has ample borrowing capacity. After the quarter closed, they upped the size of their revolver by an additional $75 million (giving them $250 million left of undrawn capacity). I don't believe the company will need most of these funds (unless they wanted to repay some of the convertible notes outstanding), but it should relieve any concerns about short-term liquidity.
Also, assuming that Fekola ramps up as expected, this trend of increasing net debt will abruptly reverse later this year and continue to show great improvement in 2018. As shown above, the company will be producing roughly 925,000 ounces of gold next year at an AISC of ~$800 per ounce. At $1,300 gold, that's roughly $450 million of pre-tax cash flow (adjusting for a 90% ownership in Fekola). B2Gold should be spinning off some serious free cash flow by that time, and this debt will just melt away. I wouldn't be surprised if the company extinguished half of this debt by the end of 2018.
2. The Fekola operation is 90% owned by B2Gold and 10% owned by the Malian government. The government has the option to purchase another 10% at "fair market value." It seems likely that Mali will acquire that additional ownership stake, which would dilute B2Gold a bit more. However, the company should receive some compensation in return.
3. The jurisdictional risks remain significant for B2Gold. Namibia, Mali, Philippines, Nicaragua, and Burkina Faso aren't exactly top mining regions. Each has its own issues that BTG must deal with. But the company's M.O. since inception is to enter regions of the world that it believes offer compelling upside and manageable risks. So far that strategy has worked, and the company maintains (for the most part) good relations with all Governments in these regions. Investors should still be aware of the elevated risks that come with this portfolio of assets.
(Source: B2Gold)
BTG Is Now A Buy As A Re-Rating Should Occur
In summary, I'm much more bullish on BTG than I have been in a while. Especially considering the valuation has compressed on a relative basis. The stock should be re-rated higher in the near-term as Fekola is going to have a major impact on production, AISC, cash flow, and debt repayment. With Masbate and Otjikoto also outperforming, this trio of mines will be a powerful combination. There are still some risks on the table (mostly jurisdictional, as BTG doesn't operate in top mining regions), but they are diminished compared to last year.
While I didn't go into detail about the company's other assets, B2Gold does own several highly prospective projects that it's looking to advance/develop. There is plenty of organic growth in the pipeline.
As for the chart, the 200-day is still important, but not as vital at this point like it was back in March. Even though BTG has broken below that support, it doesn't mean it's going to $2.10 this time around. The series of higher lows remaining intact is what really matters. I'm paying close attention to the $2.30-$2.40 level. If that doesn't hold, then BTG would experience a technical breakdown. I believe that scenario would only occur if gold declined further. As long as gold at least stays flat over the next several months, I see no reason why BTG won't retest the $3.60 level in short order. That's a 30-35% gain from current levels. I don't expect it to stop there either as I believe it could take out those highs. If gold should instead decline, then I expect BTG to outperform the sector given Fekola will be in production in less than two weeks and cash flow will begin to increase next quarter.
Why B2Gold Is About To Be Re-Rated Higher
Sep.19.17 | About: B2Gold Corp. (BTG)
Summary
The valuation of BTG has declined over the last 6 months, and the lofty market cap was a factor that was also holding me back at the time.
There is also a major bullish catalyst about to hit, as the company's Fekola mine will commence production in less than two weeks.
Other developments help to further support my bull thesis.
I'm buying BTG as I believe the stock will see a 30-35% gain from current levels.
Analysis
I have been avoiding B2Gold (BTG) for a while now because I saw better valuations, more upside potential, and lower near-term risks in other names. Recently, though, I have turned bullish on the company, and I'm much more constructive on the stock. There are five reasons for my change in position:
1. The Valuation Has Declined
BTG has been on the more expensive end since the summer of 2016. Back in February of this year, the stock was actually re-testing its highs from the previous August. It was only 2% from its peak, even though the rest of the mining sector was still down significantly on average.
Chart BTG data by YCharts
At the time, I felt that a company like Gold Fields (GFI) and other gold stocks were much better bargains. Since then, BTG is down over 24%, the HUI is down about 3%, and Gold Fields is up 29%. In other words, BTG's valuation has been aggressively contracting while others have been roughly flat to aggressively expanding - making B2Gold much cheaper on a relative basis than it has been in a while.
Chart BTG data by YCharts
2. There Is A Major Positive Catalyst About To Hit
The company's Fekola mine will commence production in less than two weeks (October 1). This will result in a substantial increase in output next year, as Fekola is expected to average 375,000 to 400,000 ounces of gold per year for the first five years of production (2018 to 2022) and 365,000 to 390,000 ounces per year over the first seven years of production (2018 to 2024). All total, B2Gold will be producing just under 1 million ounces of gold in 2018, with AISC expected to be between $780 to $810 per ounce. I remember when this company was just a 100,000 ounce producer, as they only had the El Limon and La Libertad mines in their portfolio. The growth over the last seven years has been astounding.
(Source: B2Gold)
Fekola is on budget and actually three months ahead of schedule. The mine is expected to contribute possibly 55,000 ounces of gold production in Q4 of this year.
B2Gold has been expending quite a bit of cash on Fekola over the last two years, which means free cash flow has been suffering greatly. Total capex for the three and six months ended June 30, 2017, was $75.0 million and $142.8 million, respectively. To date, the company has spent $513.9 million on the Fekola project, and that includes $41 million of preconstruction expenditures.
The good news is, construction is now basically complete. So while Fekola has been a negative catalyst for the last 1-2 years, it's about to flip to a positive one. Free cash flow will dramatically improve starting next quarter, and it will continue to build as Fekola ramps up. The shares aren't pricing in this drastic increase in production and cash flow. A re-rating will likely occur over the next several months as the mine enters production and starts contributing to FCF - instead of being a drain on it.
There is still upside to Fekola, as more ounces are being discovered in and around the deposit. The Kiwi zone, which isn't part of the mine plan, is just north of the proposed pit limits of the Fekola Deposit and contains high-grade gold at very shallow depths. B2Gold has also had very strong intercepts at Fekola Deeps. Grade in this deeper extension of the Fekola deposit is solid and widths are impressive as well. It remains open down plunge.
(Source: B2Gold)
3. Concerns About Masbate Have Eased
Last year, the Masbate mine was under threat of being shut down. A new President had been elected in the Philippines, and he had warned that he could cancel mining projects that were causing environmental harm. Not that Masbate was doing such thing, but there was concern that many mines in the country might have been, and Masbate was being grouped in with all of these.
In the mining audit released back in February by the Philippine government, Masbate was not among the mines announced to be suspended or closed. Although B2Gold still hasn't received any formal written notice from the DENR, so this matter isn't resolved entirely.
However, according to B2Gold:
The Masbate operations were recently presented with the DENR's Saringaya Award for its contribution to environmental protection, conservation, and management in the regions surrounding the Masbate Mine. The Saringaya Award is considered the DENR's most prestigious regional environmental award.
It would seem odd to award Masbate with the highest environmental award and then shut it down for environmental reasons. In other words, while this was a concern last year, recent developments seem to indicate that Masbate is highly likely to remain in production. I would also like to point out that the government appears to have softened its stance and is more open to mining companies operating in the country - providing they are meeting the strict environmental regulations. As a result of these developments, the jurisdictional risk for Masbate has been greatly reduced.
4. Masbate And Otjikoto Are Outperforming
B2Gold took down guidance for the year back in July, as production for 2017 is now expected to be 530,000-570,000 ounces of gold compared to 545,000-595,000 ounces in the original guidance.
The culprits are the Nicaraguan mines, as La Libertad and El Limon are underperforming. To me, this is inconsequential as La Libertad and El Limon aren't nearly as important as they were before. In fact, it was reported last year that B2Gold was looking to sell these two mines. I wouldn't be surprised if they did jettison these assets in the near future. What investors should instead be focused on, is that Masbate and Otjikoto are actually coming in at the top end of guidance or slightly exceeding it. These are the two largest operations currently in production. Going forward, what matters most to the company is Fekola, Masbate, and Otjikoto. As long as those are performing well, then so will the stock price. I do also want to point out that gold production at El Limon is expected to return to more normal levels by the fourth quarter of 2017, and La Libertad's production is expected to increase in 2018 and 2019. I don't know if these two assets will still be in the portfolio in a year or two, but if they are, they are at least expected to see a turnaround.
(Source: B2Gold)
The outperformance from Masbate and Otjikoto is also allowing B2Gold to maintain cost guidance even though production was lowered for the year. Their outlook for AISC is still between $940 and $970 per ounce.
While the Nicaraguan mines are seeing much higher than expected AISC, it's being offset by the strength at Masbate and Otjikoto. Masbate's full-year AISC are expected to be between $935 and $975 per ounce. The original guidance was $1,020 to $1,050 per ounce. Otjikoto's full-year AISC are now expected to be between $725 and $765 per ounce, compared to the original guidance of $855 to $885 per ounce.
The Otjikoto mine is showing very strong performance against the forecasted model. Production is coming in well above expectations as the grade and ore tonnage from the Wolfshag pit is better than anticipated. The mill throughput is also higher than planned.
Year to date, gold production at the Otjikoto Mine was 83,937 ounces, that's 17% above budget (or 12,355 ounces). The average gold grade processed in Q2 was 1.50 g/t (1.38 g/t was expected), as all ore processed from the oxide and transition portions of the Wolfshag pit are coming in higher than the resource model. B2Gold is analyzing whether this positive reconciliation continues throughout the Wolfshag orebody.
B2Gold is also seeing solid exploration potential at depth (down plunge) at Otjikoto. This is an important asset for the company and it's not only performing extremely well, but there is still upside to this mine.
5. The Chart Is Bullish
The stock was looking especially precarious this past April as it broke down below the 200-day moving average. At the time, I warned subscribers of The Gold Edge about how it would likely retest the December lows of around $2.10, given the breakdown. BTG did in fact almost retest $2.10 a few weeks later.
Since then, it has rebounded, and the chart is more bullish. The series of higher lows, combined with the continuous sideways trading pattern and recent recapture of the MA (200), has better defined the technical picture and parameters. The shares are just below the 200-day at the moment, but this isn't a breakdown yet. The stock is still in a good position for a move to the previous highs from last year.
(Source: StockCharts.com)
Negative Factors
1. B2Gold's balance sheet isn't as strong as it has been in the past because of the buildout of Fekola. Cash and cash equivalents last quarter were just $88.19 million, while debt has climbed to over $580 million in order to fund construction of this important project.
Chart BTG Cash and Equivalents (Quarterly) data by YCharts
However, while the cash balance is low, the company still has ample borrowing capacity. After the quarter closed, they upped the size of their revolver by an additional $75 million (giving them $250 million left of undrawn capacity). I don't believe the company will need most of these funds (unless they wanted to repay some of the convertible notes outstanding), but it should relieve any concerns about short-term liquidity.
Also, assuming that Fekola ramps up as expected, this trend of increasing net debt will abruptly reverse later this year and continue to show great improvement in 2018. As shown above, the company will be producing roughly 925,000 ounces of gold next year at an AISC of ~$800 per ounce. At $1,300 gold, that's roughly $450 million of pre-tax cash flow (adjusting for a 90% ownership in Fekola). B2Gold should be spinning off some serious free cash flow by that time, and this debt will just melt away. I wouldn't be surprised if the company extinguished half of this debt by the end of 2018.
2. The Fekola operation is 90% owned by B2Gold and 10% owned by the Malian government. The government has the option to purchase another 10% at "fair market value." It seems likely that Mali will acquire that additional ownership stake, which would dilute B2Gold a bit more. However, the company should receive some compensation in return.
3. The jurisdictional risks remain significant for B2Gold. Namibia, Mali, Philippines, Nicaragua, and Burkina Faso aren't exactly top mining regions. Each has its own issues that BTG must deal with. But the company's M.O. since inception is to enter regions of the world that it believes offer compelling upside and manageable risks. So far that strategy has worked, and the company maintains (for the most part) good relations with all Governments in these regions. Investors should still be aware of the elevated risks that come with this portfolio of assets.
(Source: B2Gold)
BTG Is Now A Buy As A Re-Rating Should Occur
In summary, I'm much more bullish on BTG than I have been in a while. Especially considering the valuation has compressed on a relative basis. The stock should be re-rated higher in the near-term as Fekola is going to have a major impact on production, AISC, cash flow, and debt repayment. With Masbate and Otjikoto also outperforming, this trio of mines will be a powerful combination. There are still some risks on the table (mostly jurisdictional, as BTG doesn't operate in top mining regions), but they are diminished compared to last year.
While I didn't go into detail about the company's other assets, B2Gold does own several highly prospective projects that it's looking to advance/develop. There is plenty of organic growth in the pipeline.
As for the chart, the 200-day is still important, but not as vital at this point like it was back in March. Even though BTG has broken below that support, it doesn't mean it's going to $2.10 this time around. The series of higher lows remaining intact is what really matters. I'm paying close attention to the $2.30-$2.40 level. If that doesn't hold, then BTG would experience a technical breakdown. I believe that scenario would only occur if gold declined further. As long as gold at least stays flat over the next several months, I see no reason why BTG won't retest the $3.60 level in short order. That's a 30-35% gain from current levels. I don't expect it to stop there either as I believe it could take out those highs. If gold should instead decline, then I expect BTG to outperform the sector given Fekola will be in production in less than two weeks and cash flow will begin to increase next quarter.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.817.619 von Mineral-deposits666 am 25.09.17 14:12:40Willkommen im Club!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.817.613 von Mineral-deposits666 am 25.09.17 14:12:14Ich bin mal heut eingestiegen.. .
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/09/25/1131972/0/…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/09/25/1131972/0/…
Hallo hier mal die aktuellen Quartalszahlen von der Firma B2 Gold ....und die aktuelle Presentation wie seht ihr die Zahlen?
http://www.minenportal.de/artikel.php?sid=36300
http://www.b2gold.com/_resources/presentations/MAY-2017-Teas…
http://www.b2gold.com/_resources/presentations/ANALYST-DAY-J…
http://www.minenportal.de/artikel.php?sid=36300
http://www.b2gold.com/_resources/presentations/MAY-2017-Teas…
http://www.b2gold.com/_resources/presentations/ANALYST-DAY-J…
Trading Spotlight
Anbei Artikel aus USA.
Libertad und El Limon verhageln Performance
Summary
I've previously expressed bullishness on B2Gold stock.
The company is a gold growth stock as it aims to grow its production by nearly 100% over the next few years, organically.
I discuss B2Gold's Q2 results, recent developments and if the company is still on track.
This article was first available to subscribers of the Gold Bull Portfolio, a premium service offered by Gold Mining Bull.
B2Gold Q2 Earnings Analysis
B2Gold (BTG) has reported its second-quarter 2017 financial results, so I think it's a good time to revisit the bullish case for the stock to see if the story has changed at all.
For some background, I previously stated that I felt this year would be a critical one for the growth-focused gold miner. I said the following back in April:
"While the company performed quite well in 2016 and provided a decent outlook for 2017, I think that managing cash costs and developing the Fekola project are going to be the two keys going forward."
At the time, I said I thought investors should consider buying shares on weakness and as I expected the stock's outperformance to continue, assuming no issues with its Fekola development project.
I'm not entirely pleased with how the company performed operationally in Q2, as I felt it was mostly a mixed quarter. However, I'm optimistic things will turn around in the second half of the year as Fekola comes online. This is still a growth stock to target.
Here are some of the highlights, and my updated thoughts on the stock at the bottom.
• Gold production of 121,448 ounces, 1% above its budget. For the full year 2017, B2Gold has revised its production guidance range slightly lower, however, by 4%, to between 530,000 to 570,000 ounces. I'll discuss this below.
• Revenue of $164.3 million, cash flow from operations of $48 million, or $.05 per share.
• All-in sustaining costs of $974 per ounce, which was $185 per ounce below budget (16%).
• The company ended the quarter with $88.2 million in cash and is three months ahead of schedule and on budget at its Fekola project, with an anticipated October 1, 2017 production start.
So, production and cash costs were both strong this quarter, above budget. However, guidance has been lowered for the full-year, as a result of lower expected production at El Limon (normal levels of production are expected there by Q4 2017).
There were also some operational issues at La Libertad. According to the company, production was 16% below budget in Q2 and 27% below Q2 2016. This was blamed on grades and ore tonnage underperformance from the lower portion of the Jabali Central Pit.
Head grades averaged 1.37 g/t compared to budget of 1.61 g/t at La Libertad. So, the company is shifting its focus to developing and permitting the San Juan and San Diego open pits at the mine, bringing them into production in Q3 2017, ahead of the Jabali Antenna Pit. AISC at the mine rose to $1,089 in Q2. Production is now expected to be between 90,000 to 100,000 ounces of gold, down from 110,000 to 120,000 ounces.
El Limon also suffered from lower grades in Q2. The company's processed grade was 2.43 g/t vs. a budget of 3.45 g/t. Production continued to be negatively affected by water control issues, which reduced high grade ore flow from Santa Pancha underground, according to the company.
Year-to-date, AISC is $1,727 at this mine, which is clearly unacceptable as it is losing money for the company. The El Limon Mine is now forecast to produce between 40,000 to 50,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 50,000 to 60,000 ounces), with AISC between $1,415 - $1,455 per ounce (up from $1,065 to $1,095).
The reason B2Gold's results weren't nearly as bad as they could have been: Masbate and Otjikoto.
Masbate produced close to 50,000 ounces of gold in Q2, 13% above budget with all-in sustaining costs of $869 per ounce, below budget by $106. Annual guidance has been raised to be between 180,000 to 185,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 175,000 to 185,000 ounces).
Meanwhile, Otjikoto produced 41,163 ounces of gold, 15% above budget, with AISC of just $668 per ounce, below budget of $726 per ounce, with cash costs falling $138 year over year.
This was an amazing quarter for Otjikoto as cash operating costs were $524 per ounce, significantly below budget by $200 per ounce, mainly due to higher production and lower fuel prices. B2Gold expects higher production, between 170,000 to 180,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 165,000 to 175,000 ounces), at Otjikoto.
The best part of this earnings release was the update on Fekola, however. It remains 3 months ahead of schedule and investors can expect an Oct. 1 production start, with the project currently 90% complete.
As I've pointed out before, I'm a fan of this project as I see it as a future low-cost mine. Annually, it should produce up to 400,000 ounces of gold per year (from 2018-22) with an initial mine life of 10 years. That's going to provide a huge production boost for B2Gold, which expects to produce 900,000 to 950,000 ounces of gold with Fekola at commercial production.
More importantly, Fekola projects to be B2Gold's lowest cost mine. The feasibility study estimates cash costs of $319 per ounce and AISC should fall under $700. The mine carries a net present value (5% discount) of $796 million using a conservative gold price of $1,200. Using the current gold price of $1,300, the NPV jumps to just over $1 billion. B2Gold's market cap is currently around $3 billion.
I'd also like to point out that B2Gold is currently updating the financial analysis for Fekola, to include updated reserves, mining production schedule, current costs (which should be lower with lower fuel prices) and other updates to the study which could improve its economics. The updated cost model is expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2017.
In conclusion, while two of B2Gold's mines have been giving it issues, I still believe in the long-term growth potential of this company. The stock has had an up-and-down kind of year, advancing by 5.5%, compared to a 10% gain in the VanEck gold miners index (GDX), and this underperformance can mainly be attributed to the struggles at the two mines mentioned above. I think the stock is likely to perform better, however, once Fekola is in production and the issues at either La Libertad or El Limon get resolved
Libertad und El Limon verhageln Performance
Summary
I've previously expressed bullishness on B2Gold stock.
The company is a gold growth stock as it aims to grow its production by nearly 100% over the next few years, organically.
I discuss B2Gold's Q2 results, recent developments and if the company is still on track.
This article was first available to subscribers of the Gold Bull Portfolio, a premium service offered by Gold Mining Bull.
B2Gold Q2 Earnings Analysis
B2Gold (BTG) has reported its second-quarter 2017 financial results, so I think it's a good time to revisit the bullish case for the stock to see if the story has changed at all.
For some background, I previously stated that I felt this year would be a critical one for the growth-focused gold miner. I said the following back in April:
"While the company performed quite well in 2016 and provided a decent outlook for 2017, I think that managing cash costs and developing the Fekola project are going to be the two keys going forward."
At the time, I said I thought investors should consider buying shares on weakness and as I expected the stock's outperformance to continue, assuming no issues with its Fekola development project.
I'm not entirely pleased with how the company performed operationally in Q2, as I felt it was mostly a mixed quarter. However, I'm optimistic things will turn around in the second half of the year as Fekola comes online. This is still a growth stock to target.
Here are some of the highlights, and my updated thoughts on the stock at the bottom.
• Gold production of 121,448 ounces, 1% above its budget. For the full year 2017, B2Gold has revised its production guidance range slightly lower, however, by 4%, to between 530,000 to 570,000 ounces. I'll discuss this below.
• Revenue of $164.3 million, cash flow from operations of $48 million, or $.05 per share.
• All-in sustaining costs of $974 per ounce, which was $185 per ounce below budget (16%).
• The company ended the quarter with $88.2 million in cash and is three months ahead of schedule and on budget at its Fekola project, with an anticipated October 1, 2017 production start.
So, production and cash costs were both strong this quarter, above budget. However, guidance has been lowered for the full-year, as a result of lower expected production at El Limon (normal levels of production are expected there by Q4 2017).
There were also some operational issues at La Libertad. According to the company, production was 16% below budget in Q2 and 27% below Q2 2016. This was blamed on grades and ore tonnage underperformance from the lower portion of the Jabali Central Pit.
Head grades averaged 1.37 g/t compared to budget of 1.61 g/t at La Libertad. So, the company is shifting its focus to developing and permitting the San Juan and San Diego open pits at the mine, bringing them into production in Q3 2017, ahead of the Jabali Antenna Pit. AISC at the mine rose to $1,089 in Q2. Production is now expected to be between 90,000 to 100,000 ounces of gold, down from 110,000 to 120,000 ounces.
El Limon also suffered from lower grades in Q2. The company's processed grade was 2.43 g/t vs. a budget of 3.45 g/t. Production continued to be negatively affected by water control issues, which reduced high grade ore flow from Santa Pancha underground, according to the company.
Year-to-date, AISC is $1,727 at this mine, which is clearly unacceptable as it is losing money for the company. The El Limon Mine is now forecast to produce between 40,000 to 50,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 50,000 to 60,000 ounces), with AISC between $1,415 - $1,455 per ounce (up from $1,065 to $1,095).
The reason B2Gold's results weren't nearly as bad as they could have been: Masbate and Otjikoto.
Masbate produced close to 50,000 ounces of gold in Q2, 13% above budget with all-in sustaining costs of $869 per ounce, below budget by $106. Annual guidance has been raised to be between 180,000 to 185,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 175,000 to 185,000 ounces).
Meanwhile, Otjikoto produced 41,163 ounces of gold, 15% above budget, with AISC of just $668 per ounce, below budget of $726 per ounce, with cash costs falling $138 year over year.
This was an amazing quarter for Otjikoto as cash operating costs were $524 per ounce, significantly below budget by $200 per ounce, mainly due to higher production and lower fuel prices. B2Gold expects higher production, between 170,000 to 180,000 ounces of gold (original guidance was 165,000 to 175,000 ounces), at Otjikoto.
The best part of this earnings release was the update on Fekola, however. It remains 3 months ahead of schedule and investors can expect an Oct. 1 production start, with the project currently 90% complete.
As I've pointed out before, I'm a fan of this project as I see it as a future low-cost mine. Annually, it should produce up to 400,000 ounces of gold per year (from 2018-22) with an initial mine life of 10 years. That's going to provide a huge production boost for B2Gold, which expects to produce 900,000 to 950,000 ounces of gold with Fekola at commercial production.
More importantly, Fekola projects to be B2Gold's lowest cost mine. The feasibility study estimates cash costs of $319 per ounce and AISC should fall under $700. The mine carries a net present value (5% discount) of $796 million using a conservative gold price of $1,200. Using the current gold price of $1,300, the NPV jumps to just over $1 billion. B2Gold's market cap is currently around $3 billion.
I'd also like to point out that B2Gold is currently updating the financial analysis for Fekola, to include updated reserves, mining production schedule, current costs (which should be lower with lower fuel prices) and other updates to the study which could improve its economics. The updated cost model is expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2017.
In conclusion, while two of B2Gold's mines have been giving it issues, I still believe in the long-term growth potential of this company. The stock has had an up-and-down kind of year, advancing by 5.5%, compared to a 10% gain in the VanEck gold miners index (GDX), and this underperformance can mainly be attributed to the struggles at the two mines mentioned above. I think the stock is likely to perform better, however, once Fekola is in production and the issues at either La Libertad or El Limon get resolved
Naja, aus Chronistenpflicht poste ich das mal hier von Finanztrends, die amerikanischen Medien recherchieren aber besser...
Fakt ist, es gab Probleme in 2 Minen, die das Ergebnis belasteten. Wenn aber Fekola kommt, gibt das so einen Umsatz-Schub, daß diese 2 schwächeren Minen kaum noch ins Gewicht fallen.
Aber nichtsdestotrotz, Kurs erstmal schwächer, weil das Management ist wohl so mit Fekola beschäftigt, daß Ihnen diese 2 anderen Minen außer Sicht und Kontrolle geraten sind, das darf nicht passieren.
B2Gold mit Wachstumssorgen!
20.08.17 18:00
Finanztrends
Liebe Leser,
in der letzten Woche hat Marc Nitzsche berichtet, dass die Aktie verstärkt unter Druck geraten war.
Der Stand! Am vergangenen Freitag schienen sich die Anleger nicht gerade zufrieden zu zeigen, denn trotz eines stabilen Goldpreises war die Aktie unter verstärkten Abgabedruck geraten.
Der Grund! Grund dafür könnten die zuvor veröffentlichten Zahlen gewesen sein, auch wenn diese gar nicht so schlecht ausgefallen sind.
Die Zahlen! Im zweiten Quartal hat das Unternehmen unterm Strich 19,3 Mio. USD verdient – nach einem Verlust 11,8 Mio. USD im Juni-Vierteljahr 2016. Der Nettogewinn belief sich in den ersten sechs Monaten 2017 immerhin auf 14,7 Mio. USD und die All-In-Sustaining-Kosten lagen bei 929 USD je Unze.
Die Performance! Das Unternehmen hat im zweiten Quartal 131.737 Unzen Gold zu einem Durchschnittspreis von 1.247 USD je Unze verkauft, dafür aber nur 121.448 Unzen produziert – sich operativ also zurückentwickelt.
Der Ausblick! Die Unterstützung könnte bei gut 2,00 Euro getestet werden, vor allem wenn Gold nicht mehr so dynamisch ansteigen sollte.
Wie wird es mit der B2Gold weitergehen? Wir halten Sie weiter auf dem Laufenden.
Fakt ist, es gab Probleme in 2 Minen, die das Ergebnis belasteten. Wenn aber Fekola kommt, gibt das so einen Umsatz-Schub, daß diese 2 schwächeren Minen kaum noch ins Gewicht fallen.
Aber nichtsdestotrotz, Kurs erstmal schwächer, weil das Management ist wohl so mit Fekola beschäftigt, daß Ihnen diese 2 anderen Minen außer Sicht und Kontrolle geraten sind, das darf nicht passieren.
B2Gold mit Wachstumssorgen!
20.08.17 18:00
Finanztrends
Liebe Leser,
in der letzten Woche hat Marc Nitzsche berichtet, dass die Aktie verstärkt unter Druck geraten war.
Der Stand! Am vergangenen Freitag schienen sich die Anleger nicht gerade zufrieden zu zeigen, denn trotz eines stabilen Goldpreises war die Aktie unter verstärkten Abgabedruck geraten.
Der Grund! Grund dafür könnten die zuvor veröffentlichten Zahlen gewesen sein, auch wenn diese gar nicht so schlecht ausgefallen sind.
Die Zahlen! Im zweiten Quartal hat das Unternehmen unterm Strich 19,3 Mio. USD verdient – nach einem Verlust 11,8 Mio. USD im Juni-Vierteljahr 2016. Der Nettogewinn belief sich in den ersten sechs Monaten 2017 immerhin auf 14,7 Mio. USD und die All-In-Sustaining-Kosten lagen bei 929 USD je Unze.
Die Performance! Das Unternehmen hat im zweiten Quartal 131.737 Unzen Gold zu einem Durchschnittspreis von 1.247 USD je Unze verkauft, dafür aber nur 121.448 Unzen produziert – sich operativ also zurückentwickelt.
Der Ausblick! Die Unterstützung könnte bei gut 2,00 Euro getestet werden, vor allem wenn Gold nicht mehr so dynamisch ansteigen sollte.
Wie wird es mit der B2Gold weitergehen? Wir halten Sie weiter auf dem Laufenden.
Hallo Zusammen,
gestern News von B2Gold... wie bewertet ihr diese ?
gestern News von B2Gold... wie bewertet ihr diese ?
Hab hier eben mal ein paar abgestaubt. Der Kurs ist doch ziemlich weit zurück gekommen.
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