Raus aus Aplle, rein in Compaq - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[ibmisout]

Compaq wird am Mittwoch bestimmt einiges von seinen Verlusten wieder reinholen.
751447 heute für 0,76 morgen bestimmt bei 0,85.

[crash cannibal]

Wer Postings nachahmt oder nachgeahmte in Umlauf bringt, wird mit Systemabstürzen und schlechtem Design nicht unter sechsmal am Tag bestraft!

be bullish – be Apple – be better

c.c.

[ibmisout]

wer einen Apfel zu lange im Schreibtisch liegen hat, wird mit
Fäulniß, Schimmelpilzbefall und Totalverlust bestraft.
Deshalb faule Äpfel auf den Kompost.

[Cpt. Picard]

Ich kann mir beim besten Willen nicht einen guten Grund vorstellen, warum sich jemand von seinen Apple-Aktien (KGV von 25, großes Gewinnwachstum, treue Kundschaft, neuer iMac nächsten Monat) trennen sollte, für die dieses Jahr hervorragende Aussichten bestehen (mein Kursziel: 85 Dollar), um dafür einen Computerbauer in der Krise (Compaq), der immer noch deutlich zu hoch bewertet ist und weltweit um jeden einzelnen Kunden gegen Dell, HP, Fujitsu kämpfen muss, zu kaufen. Kannst du mir einen einzigen nennen, ibmisout?
Mfg Cpt. Picard
PS: Besucht doch mal meinen Apple-Thread!

[ibmisout]

Hauptgrund für Kurzfristanleger:
CPQ wurde die Letzten Tage um 20% runtergeprügelt, auf Grund einer
einzelnen Analysten Meinung über negative Entwicklungen bezüglich
der Inventory (Compaqs Hauptproblem der letzten 2 Jahre ).
Mittlerweile haben alle anderen Analysten ihrer eigenen positiven Bewertungen bestätigt. Vor allem aber hat der CEO und CFO von
CPQ seinen Mitarbeitern und den Aktionären via Mail bestätigt
das es keine Probleme gibt und das alles im grünen Bereich ist.
Es gibt noch diverse andere Gründe für den mittelfristigen
Bereich, aber die fällige Korrektur könnte vor allem kurzfristig
bis Ende Juli einen kräftigen Anstieg bringen.
Jetzt kannst Du die 751447 kaufen für 0,78. Heute abend über 0,85.
Wetten wir ?

[go.to Realtimekurse]

Meine Vorschlaege fuer neue IDs:

IBMisin
AAPLisin
VISXisin
MBXisin
GOZisin

CPQisout

http://go.to/Realtimekurse

[ibmisout]

besser gefällt mir:
coqisoutaberbaldwiederin

[ibmisout]

* CPQ looks like a `no-brainer` risk/reward play at $25 to us. If we`re right
about 2Q, we think the stock could be up 25+% in the next 30 days. Low
expectations mean little downside.

The stock spent 1H in a $25-30 trading range as the market waited for more
evidence of a turnaround. Improvements under Compaq`s new leadership have so
far been concentrated in expense areas, with big improvements in revenue growth
and margins due to come in the second half according to management`s roadmap.
Investors are taking a wait-and-see approach due to the company`s rocky history
but have a positive bias toward the stock due to the company`s server franchise
and low valuation. The flipside of the stock having gone nowhere this year is
that substantial pent-up demand is waiting to be released on hard evidence a
sustainable turnaround is really on the way.

2Q results showing quicker-than-expected return to profitability in
commercial PCs could be a catalyst that gets the stock moving. We think
Compaq`s commercial PC business returned to profitability in 2Q, a quarter
ahead of management`s guidance. As discussed in more detail below, we think the
drivers were benign price competition due to component shortages and efficiency
improvements resulting from a shift to direct selling. A turnaround in
commercial PCs could be the turning point for the stock, as this segment has
been viewed as the most difficult of Compaq`s challenges due to its head-on
competition with Dell* (DELL, $49, Strong Buy). This segment has lost money for
the last four quarters and seen year/year sales declines for the last three
quarters. Commercial PCs are less than a third of the company`s total sales,
but tend to be viewed as the whole story by Compaq bears. Importantly, we think
the market would view success ahead of schedule in commercial PCs as an
endorsement of everything else management has said about future growth and
profitability improvements in Compaq`s other business segments. Recall that
prevailing Street estimates through next year assume management comes in
significantly below its stated segment revenue growth and margin targets. (See
the tables below.)

If we`re right, we think the stock could be up 25+% in the next 30 days. If
not, the stock probably stays around $25. This looks to us like a `no-brainer`
risk/reward play. We`d expect the stock to trade at least to the low $30`s
after the 2Q earnings release in late July, provided we get in-line revenue and
EPS results, early profitability in commercial PCs and no change to
management`s outlook for improvements in 2H. For now we`re comfortable on all
counts. Our 12-month target price is $48, up quite significantly from here.

Key to this risk/reward opportunity is the low expectations currently built
into the stock. The stock took a hit last week after one observer suggested
that Compaq might be stuffing the channel. Our own checks say clearly that
Compaq`s channel was UNDER-supplied through the quarter, primarily due to well-
documented Intel processor shortages. (The shortage problem didn`t apply to
low-end PCs in U.S. retail, which accumulated inventories after a well-
recognized pause in sales during May.) We believe Compaq saw a big ramp up in
its Intel processor supplies three weeks ago, eventually got its full
allocation for the quarter, and kept its factories going at top speed until
midnight last Friday Houston time in order to hit revenue expectations.

We see three reasons why commercial PCs should have made money in 2Q.
Management has said consistently that commercial PCs should turn profitable in
3Q, but despite frequent questioning from the Street has avoided setting the
expectation it would happen sooner. Our own belief is that the profitability
turning point did indeed come in 2Q, a quarter early.

1.2Q`s component shortages should have helped margins by reducing price
competition. We think the overriding effect of shortages is less price
competition, as Compaq and all other PC vendors face constraints on how many
boxes they can build. This materially helps margins. The Tier One vendors
tend to be okay on revenue numbers as they alone tend to get their full
allocations from their component vendors. The potential negative effects on
margins of higher component prices should be limited as price increases were
gradual enough to have been factored into Compaq`s end-user pricing.

2.The Inacom acquisition should be reducing Compaq`s distribution costs. In
March Compaq closed the deal for Inacom`s direct selling assets and should
have seen benefits during 2Q, particularly through avoiding price protection
charges (aka contra-revenues) and channel markups on large customer
procurements. We think Compaq has already transitioned more than 50 of its
largest corporate accounts over to direct procurement, a bit ahead of its
internal plans.

3.Loss trends were heading in the right direction prior to 2Q. As we show
below, commercial PC operating losses have diminished consistently from their
peak a year ago and were near-noise-level last quarter. While simply running
a trend line through the last four quarters would suggest breakeven or better
in 2Q, the market is still wary due to the tough supply environment in recent
months and the lack of affirmation by management that it would reach
profitability ahead of its previous guidance.

COMMERCIAL PC 4Q98 1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00
OPERATING TRENDS
LOSSES HAVE BEEN
DIMISHING

Revenues (millions) $3,681 $2,948 $3,232 $2,718 $3,133 $2,872
Operating Income (loss) 157 24 (226) (163) (79) (19)
Operating Margin 4% 1% -7% -6% -3% -1%

No change to our expectation for revenue growth acceleration and margin
improvements in the second half. We saw nothing during the course of 2Q to
change our positive outlook. We`ve modeled 190 bp of gross margin improvement
from 2Q to 4Q, which by our calculations could be fully achieved through the
mix benefits of new high margin server products (i.e., Wildfire and various
multiprocessor servers). The efficiency improvements we`d also expect to see
during 2H across Compaq`s business segments could therefore lead to material
upside. We believe demand trends today are generally good and think Compaq
could get an additional boost in 2H as Windows 2000 generates incremental
demand that would likely be most evident in the company`s server business.
Component shortages remain a challenge but should diminish as an issue as 3Q
progresses. We think Compaq anticipates increasing DRAM prices through 2H and
is planning accordingly.

COMPAQ`S LONG-TERM GROWTH AND MARGIN GOALS
Revenue Growth Operating Margin
Low High Low High

Enterprise 14% 17% 14.0% 16.0%
Commercial 12% 15% 5.0% 8.0%
Consumer 12% 17% 4.5% 4.5%
Compaq 14% 16% 10% 12%
Source: Compaq`s January 28, 2000 analysts` meeting

COMPAQ 2001 EPS AT THE LOW, MID AND HIGH POINTS OF COMPAQ`S GROWTH AND
MARGIN GOALS
Low Mid High

CPQ 2001 EPS* $ 1.80 $ 2.00 $ 2.20
Source: BAS estimates
*Using our current 2000 earnings and revenue estimates as the starting point.

[ibmisout]

Alle die wie ich am 4.7 für 0,76 gekauft haben.
Jetzt stehen wir auf 0,92.
Ich werde noch warten bis der Basiswert auf 27.5 steht.
Also vieleicht Freitag abend, dann werde ich die hälfte verkaufen.

[ibmisout]

Wenn das anhält werden die Gewinnerwartungen fürs dritte Quartal um einiges nach oben korrigiert werden .

Compaq iPaq goes for big bucks on eBay
By Stephanie Miles
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
July 14, 2000, 9:30 a.m. PT
Like other popular technology gadgets, about the only place a new
Compaq iPaq can be found is at online auction sites like eBay--and
often at soaring prices.

The iPaq is selling via online auctions for hundreds of dollars over the estimated
retail price, as customers choose not to wait for its appearance on retail
shelves. Other in-demand products before the iPaq, like handhelds from Palm
and the New Internet Computer Company`s Web-based computer, have also
fetched auction prices well above list.

The iPaq was announced last April, along with
devices from Hewlett-Packard and Casio based on
Microsoft`s Pocket PC operating system for
handheld devices. Slated to begin shipping in early
June or July, the iPaq has been anxiously awaited
by gadget aficionados because it is deemed by
many the coolest of the Pocket PCs.

As reports of devices trickling into retailers
surfaced, frustrated buyers have turned to the only
outlet for the product: online auctions. The iPaq is
selling for $700 and $800 on eBay and
Amazon.com auctions, despite the estimated retail
price of $499.

"The demand has just been overwhelming for this
product. We`re behind the curve," said Nora Hahn,
a spokeswoman for Compaq, adding that she has
seen iPaq prices as high as $1,000 on eBay.

Currently, most online retailers say they are out of stock. Online retailers like
Onvia, Computers4Sure, PCZone, Egghead, CDW, NECX and MicroBase all
report that they are out of the iPaq.

So buyers are turning to nonretail outlets like eBay, where lucky owners of the
iPaq are taking advantage of the laws of supply and demand.

"It`s the simple economic theory of supply and demand," said Zachary Kerr,
who bid over $700 for an iPaq on eBay. "They exist in limited quantity, and I am
one of the unfortunate souls who just doesn`t own one but wants one and can`t
wait to have one."

Many handheld enthusiasts have turned to online auctions and message
boards only after many attempts to purchase through a traditional retailer. "I
can`t locate the iPaq anywhere, including major and small online and offline
stores," said Frank Yeh, who also bid on an iPaq at eBay. "Unfortunately, I
sold my Palm Vx thinking that I would get an iPaq soon. I was wrong! If I have
to pay $200 over the (retail price), I have no choice."

Microsoft is wasting no time in claiming that the overwhelming demand is an
indication that its fortunes have shifted in the handheld market, which it has yet
to crack. Others see the situation as indicative of the ongoing problems both
Microsoft and its partners have had managing retail inventory and product
releases.

Hardware makers have wrestled with inventory problems ever since the debut of
handhelds based on Pocket PC two years ago. The first round of devices with
color displays, expected early last summer, were delayed because of supply
problems with the color screens.

Microsoft-based products were in short supply in many retail stores last holiday
season, as manufacturers and retailers geared up for the release of the
PocketPC in April. Only HP shipped a totally new product at the same time as
PocketPC`s introduction. Casio, whose Cassiopeia was the top-selling
Windows CE device last year, shipped an upgraded version of its older product.

At the same time, rival Palm, whose products account for roughly
three-quarters of the handheld market, was grappling with supply issues of its
own. Its more popular Palm devices, including the sleek Palm V, were also
being sold on eBay for prices much higher than the official retail cost, because
the company was having a difficult time getting its hands on enough flash
memory and displays to supply retailers.

Buyers and sellers express frustration with Compaq and Microsoft for the
situation.

"I am a little surprised that Compaq is allowing this to happen; they should
have been able to produce quantity," said Kevin Bayless, who is selling some
iPaqs he acquired when he unexpectedly received an extra order of the device.

"I feel that Compaq should have been able to fill the supplies," said Yeh. "It`s a
very negative case, where they`re not only hurting the potential of positioning
Compaq as a leader in the emerging PDA (personal digital assistant)
industry...but also hurting a lot of want-to-buy customers."

Compaq, for its part, says that component supplies are not an issue in getting
the iPaq into buyers` hands. The company misjudged demand for the product,
according to Hahn, who said the iPaq has been shipping to online retailers
since the first week of June.

"We would always love to have more components on every level, but there`s not
any one thing that`s a stickler," she said. "We`re continuing to ramp up as
quickly as we can."