Growth und Value in einer Aktie - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

Die Aktie der Ninetowns Digi World Trade Holdings (ISIN: US6544071052) habe ich seit dem Erscheinen des folgenden Artikels unter http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05031001.… auf meiner Watchlist.

"Ninetowns (Nasdaq: NINE): USD 8.19. Our Rule Breakers newsletter service singled out two of the fastest-growing companies in China last year and this third entity also bears watching. In fact, it was the Rule Breakers discussion board that first brought Ninetowns to my attention. Selling software in piracy-plagued China? Don`t worry. Ninetowns sells enterprise software that facilitates the import/export process and government agencies aren`t likely to skimp on legalities here. If you figured that improving the inflow and outflow of goods in China might be a pretty dynamic place to be, you`re right. Last year the company earned USD 0.57 per American Depositary Share (ADS) as net revenues rose by 52%.

This year the company is looking for earnings to come in between USD 0.60 and USD 0.70 per share with revenues climbing another 39% higher. If the earnings growth seems modest, that`s because the company went public in December and will be dividing its profits by 26% more diluted shares. The upside? The IPO has the company sitting on nearly USD 3 a share in cash."

Die Gesellschaft ist führender Programmierer von Unternehmenssoftware für Export/Import und Verzollung für Handelsgeschäfte mit chinesischen Gesellschaften und Zweigbetrieben internationaler Konzerne. Am 11.08.2005 wurden blendende Quartalszahlen für das 2. Quartal 2005 vorgestellt, doch ein zurückhaltender Ausblick hat an diesem Tag eine Verkaufslawine losgetreten. Grund für den verhaltenen Ausblick war eine offene Ausschreibung staatlicher chinesischer Stellen für administrative Software für die Zollabwicklung. Am 29.08.2005 wurde vermeldet, dass Ninetowns den Zuschlag erhalten hat, auch für die staatlichen Stellen die Software zu entwickeln und die Firmenleitung hat den Ausblick auf das zuvor geschätzte Niveau wieder angehoben. Diese Meldung haben die Anleger aber bisher verschlafen.

Es gibt hier also eine vollkommen schuldenfreie und sich dynamisch entwickelnde Softwareschmiede, die seit 2001 kontinuierlich Gewinne schreibt und mit einem Buchwert von 3,83 Dollar je Aktie für derzeit 5,30 Dollar je Aktie zu haben ist.

Gruß von Wilhelm Bartsch, Malermeister

P.S.: Die Homepage der Ninetowns Digi World Trade Holdings ist ausdrücklich einen Besuch Wert!

[zpo]

Wo haben die ihre ursprünglichen Prognosen wieder
"hergestellt" (0,60 - 0,70) ?

0,44 - 0,50 EPS weiterhin.

anderweitiger link ?

Danke.

[ladycapulet]

@ Malermeister

Guten Abend,

die Story klingt interessant. Werde mir die Aktie mal genauer ansehen, aber ich glaube nicht, daß ich ausgerechnet auf chinesische Softwareaktien stehe. (Vielleicht ein Vorurteil, aber üblicherweise notieren die doch immer bei 0,00X Euro.)
Wo hast Du den Buchwert ausgegraben?

Grüße, ladycapulet

[zpo]

Was erzählst du denn da ???

Von deren HP vom 29.8.:

" (...) Mr. Tommy Fork, Chief Financial Officer, commented, "Although we are very pleased to have been selected by the PRC Inspections Administration, we remain cautious in our outlook and re-iterate our prior guidance . For the full year ending December 31, 2005, the Company estimates that its total net revenues will be in the range of US$26.5 million to US$30.5 million, operating margin will be in the range of 52% to 58% and diluted earnings per share/ADS will be in the range of US$0.44 to US$0.50 , based on a diluted share count of 36 million shares/ADSs. As for the quarter ending September 30, 2005, the Company expects that its total net revenues will be in the range of US$7.1 million to US$7.4 million, net income will be in the range of US$3.8 million to US$4.3 million and diluted earnings per share will be in the range of US$0.11 to US$0.12, based on a diluted share count of 35.6 (...) "

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

@ zpo

Die Info habe ich aus dem folgenden Analystenstatement herausgelesen:

"MarketWatch
Market Pulse: Ninetowns wins China agency software bid; backs fin`l view
Monday August 29, 6:56 pm ET
By Carla Mozee
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- China-based software and computer-services group Ninetowns Digital Trading said Monday evening that it has won a bid from the People`s Republic of China Inspections Administration to develop a software product similar to its existing iDeclare and iProcess products. Ninetowns expects the agency to pay a one-time fee of 3.3 million yuan ($400,000) to purchase the rights to the product, with the fee to be recognized in 2005. It said, however, the payment isn`t expected to include any maintenance-service fees which could be charged to software users after the software has been launched in the market, which is expected to occur toward the end of 2005. Ninetowns reiterated its financial forecasts for fiscal 2005 and the third quarter ending Sept. 30."

Weil die Prognose gegenüber dem Statement vom 11.08.05 nicht weiter abgesenkt worden war, sprach der zweite Überschriftenteil "backs fin`l view" für eine Rückkehr zu den früheren Prognosen. Habe jetzt das in beiden Texten verwendete "reiterated" nachgeschlagen und stimme dem, was Du kritisierst, zu.

Ich habe jetzt noch mal unter http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=1881… nachgesehen (@ ladycapulet: von dort auch die Angabe zum Buchwert) und dort geht man von einem (folglich zu hohen) EPS von 0,57 USD von einem KGV von 9,3 aus. Müsste man nach den eigenen Schätzungen jetzt ein EPS von 0,44 USD annehmen, läge das KGV bei etwas über 12. Das empfinde ich bei diesen Kennzahlen auch nicht als zu hoch. Fragt sich, ob die Wachstumsprognose auch erschüttert ist.

Ich denke, man kann die Sache ganz optimistisch sehen, sofern nicht im Zusammenhang mit den Zahlen für das dritte Quartal ein weiter reduziertes EPS genannt werden sollte.

Ein Gruß und ein Sorry von Wilhelm Bartsch, Malermeister

[lapamita]

die mittleren analystenschaetzungen gehen von 0,59 eps aus , aber fuer 2006 mit nur 0,50
der cashbestand 3,22$ bei BV 4,30 stimmt.
allerdings bei einem umsatz von ca 30 mio macht das ein KUV von ueber 7, also mal keine valueaktie, sondern ehe eine wachstumsaktie, wenn??
aber bei einem umsatz von ca 32 mio $ , mit einem erwarteten gewinn errechnet sich eher ein eps von 0,44, was einem kgcv von 12 entspricht.
intressante aber auf kuv basis teure aktie, und die analysten ( da gebe ich sowieso nichts drauf) rechnen fuer 05 mit gewinnrueckgaengen. ( quelle yahoo.finance)
aber die groessere frage, selbst wenn man die umsaetze steigert, kann so eine firma die amrgen halten, 52% operating ist sehr hoch ! und schmilzt mit groesse dahin, damit ahbe ich leider so meine negativen erfarhungen
aber wie gesagt intressante story..........

[ladycapulet]

Hallo,

Weil die Analyse von lapamita so beeindruckend ist und es ihr kaum noch was hinzuzufügen gibt, möchte ich zwei automatisch generierte Growth-Analysen zum besten geben, die ich heute aufgestöbert habe:



1. NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HOLDINGS (NINE) for the Growth Investor based on book by Martin Zweig

P/E RATIO: (PASS)

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. NINE`s P/E is 8.83, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 21.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: (FAIL)

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. NINE`s revenue growth is 5.75%, while it`s earnings growth rate is 33.55%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, NINE fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: (FAIL)

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (38.3%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (59.2%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For NINE this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: (PASS)

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. NINE`s EPS (Dollar 0.14) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: (PASS)

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. NINE`s EPS for this quarter last year (Dollar 0.13) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: (PASS)

The growth rate of the current quarter`s earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. NINE`s growth rate of 7.69% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: (FAIL)

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for NINE is 16.77%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are -18.75%, 183.33% and 30.77%. NINE does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: (FAIL)

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter`s earnings, 34.29%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 7.69%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for NINE is 7.7%, and it would therefore fail this test.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: (FAIL)

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 7.69% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 33.55%. Since this is not the case NINE would therefore fail this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: (FAIL)

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company`s earnings must increase each year for a five year period. NINE, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 1.85, 0.05, 0.36, 0.22, and 0.58, fails this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: (PASS)

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. NINE`s long-term growth rate of 33.55%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: (PASS)

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. NINE`s Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (54.40%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: (PASS)

A factor that adds to a stock`s attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For NINE this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 0, while insiders buying number 0). Despite the lack of an insider buy signal, there also is not an insider sell signal, so the stock passes this criterion.





2. NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HOLDINGS (NINE) for the P/E/Growth Investor based on book by Peter Lynch


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider NINE a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: (PASS)

The investor should examine the P/E (8.83) relative to the growth rate (33.55%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for NINE (0.26) is very favorable.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: (NEUTRAL)

For companies with sales greater than Dollar 1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth rate high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. NINE, whose sales are Dollar 30.0 million, is not considered large enough to apply the P/E ratio analysis. However, an investor can analyze the P/E ratio relative to the EPS growth rate.


INVENTORY TO SALES: (PASS)

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for NINE was 0.37% last year, while for this year it is 4.02%. Since inventory has been rising, this methodology would not look favorably at the stock but would not completely eliminate it from consideration as the inventory increase (3.65%) is below 5%.


EPS GROWTH RATE: (PASS)

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for NINE is 33.5%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: (PASS)

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for NINE (0.00%) to be wonderfully low (equity is at least ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: (NEUTRAL)

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for NINE (4.48%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: (NEUTRAL)

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for NINE (6.71%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.




Ich lasse mir gleichwohl mit meiner Kaufentscheidung noch etwas Zeit - mal sehen, wie es in den USA nach dem Feiertag weitergeht.

ladycapulet

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

Guten Tag,

, denn es gab gestern ein kleines "Startsignal" bei hohen Umsätzen in New York. Die nächste Woche wird interessant werden.

Gruß von Wilhelm Bartsch, Kunstmaler

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

Guten Abend,

#8 war ein Fehlsignal, der Kurs war kleben geblieben, doch heute gibt erneut einen deutlichen Aufwärtsmove:



Gruß von Wilhelm Bartsch, Kunstmaler

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

Guten Abend,

es ist an der Zeit, die Aktie mal wieder in Erinnerung zu rufen.

Frohe Weihnachtstage wünscht Wilhelm Bartsch, Kunstmaler

[MalerWilhelmBartsch]

Na` bitte - total unterschätzt!

KURSPLUS HEUTE 23% BEIM 13-FACHEN DER DURCHSCHNITTLICHEN BÖRSENUMSÄTZE UND TROTZDEM WEITERHIN NOCH ATTRAKTIV BEWERTET.

Gruß von Wilhelm Bartsch, Kunstmaler