Shell first quarter 2021 update note - Seite 3

Full-year price and margin sensitivities

The Adjusted Earnings and CFFO price and margin sensitivities are indicative and in relation to the full-year results. These exclude the short-term impacts from working capital movements, cost-of-sales adjustments and derivatives. Sensitivity accuracy is subject to trading and optimisation performance, including short-term opportunities, depending on market conditions. 

$ million	Adjusted Earnings	CFFO
Integrated Gas
+$10/bbl Brent	1,100	1,200
+$10/bbl Japan Customs-cleared Crude - 3 months	1,100	1,200
Upstream
+$10/bbl Brent	3,000	4,000
+$1/mmbtu Henry Hub	350	450
+$1/mmbtu EU TTF	150	200
Refining
+$1/bbl indicative refining margin	500	—

Indicative refining margin

The indicative margin is an approximation of Shell’s global net realised refining margin, calculated using price and margin markers from third parties’ databases. It is based on an approximation of Shell’s crude intake and production from refinery units. The actual margins realised by Shell may vary due to factors including specific local market effects, refinery configuration, crude diet, operating decisions and production.

Q1 2021: $2.65/bbl

Q4 2020: $1.59/bbl

Q3 2020: $0.84/bbl

The formula provided will be reviewed and updated annually, reflecting any changes in our refining portfolio.

Calculation formula ($/bbl) - note that brackets indicate a negative sign

Brent*(25%) + MSW*(11%) + LLS*(24.5%) + Dubai*(24.5%) + Urals CIF EU*(13%) + NWE Naphtha (RDAM FOB Barge)*8% + NWE Mogas premium unleaded*12.50% + NWE Kero*11.50% + NWE AGO*24.5% + NWE Benzene*1% + Sing Fueloil 380 cst*6.50% + Edmonton ULG Reg*3.50% + Edmonton ULSD*3.50% + USGC Normal Butane*1.50% + USGC LS No 2 Gasoil*7% + USGC Natural Gas*(2%) + USGC CBOB*15% + RINS*(20.50%) + NWE Propylene Platts*0.50% – $1.7/bbl