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VALEANT PHARMA - Allergan-Übernahme beflügelt (Seite 104)



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Valeant's valuation proposition is murky at best

George Budwell: If you're considering buying Valeant's stock, you're probably doing so with the idea that this once high-flying specialty pharma can somehow mount a miraculous comeback. But the harsh reality is that Valeant may have little of value to offer investors a year or so from now based on its dire need to divest core assets to bring its debt levels down to reasonable levels.

The point is that Valeant simply doesn't stack up well from a value standpoint compared to some other beaten-down biotech or biopharma stocks that investors may be considering right now. Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), for instance, has a fairly clean balance sheet, with over $30 billion in cash that can be used to create value, and it is still the top dog for both the HIV and hepatitis C drug markets. Gilead's internal controls also haven't repeatedly been called into question over the last year, and the biotech has a respectable clinical pipeline to boot.

In other words, it's hard to justify taking the enormous risk on a company like Valeant that offers only a murky valuation proposition moving forward -- especially when far better deals like Gilead are readily available.
The thesis is busted

Brian Feroldi: Given the never-ending stream of negative headlines coming out of Valeant, it might be hard to remember why investors got behind this growth story in the first place. However, if you rewind the clock just a few years, you would see that many on Wall Street believed that Valeant had stumbled upon a terrific new business model in the pharma industry.

What was this new business model? Here's a review of what the company did between 2010 and 2015 that caused its share price to skyrocket 900%:

Use the debt markets to acquire other pharma companies that had approved drugs on the market
Gut the acquired company's research and development budget, driving down costs
Jack up the prices of the newly acquired drug, which helped to juice revenue
Rinse and repeat

This unconventional strategy allowed Valeant's revenue and profits to soar for several years, leading to the huge share-price appreciation. However, this model proved to be unsustainable after the company's pricing and distribution strategies came under fire. That ultimately threw a wrench in the company's business model, leading to where we are today.

While there could be value in Valeant's shares today, there's not doubt that the original bull thesis for owning this stock is now dead. That's why I plan on staying far away from this broken company.
Till debt do us part

Sean Williams: If you ask me, there isn't a time to buy Valeant Pharmaceuticals. I struggle to find any truly redeeming qualities in this company that may struggle to survive. But topping the list of its concerns, and the reason why investors should pass on what looks to be a dangerous value trap, is the likelihood that it'll eventually breach its debt covenants with its secured lenders.

It's no secret that Valeant is lugging around a lot of debt. It ended 2016 with $29.85 billion in debt, and it has since paid down at least $1.1 billion in debt, primarily derived from completing the sale of three medicated skincare product lines to L'Oreal for $1.3 billion, as well as from positive free cash flow. The irony is that the company's aggregate debt isn't what necessarily could be its downfall. It's the company's cost to service its debt relative to what it's generating in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) that may be its undoing.

While there's no concrete EBITDA-to-interest coverage ratio that signifies a healthy versus unhealthy company, Valeant's lenders had previously demanded the company keep this ratio above three. In other words, if it spent $1.5 billion in interest expenses annually, it needed $4.5 billion in full-year EBITDA to satisfy its lenders and ensure it didn't violate its debt covenants. In 2017, Valeant is forecasting $3.55 billion to $3.7 billion in EBITDA and $1.85 billion in interest expenses to service its debt. This implies a ratio that could fall below 2-to-1.

Valeant has, on numerous occasions, reworked its debt covenants with senior secured lenders in return for fees and higher interest rates, and it may need to do so again in the future with its EBITDA forecasts proving unreliable on an almost quarterly basis. In other words, even if Valeant is able to meet its debt obligations, it may still default on its covenants, triggering a potential fire sale of its assets to repay lenders.

Valeant is in bad shape, and investors would be best off avoiding the stock altogether
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.783.643 von 007coolinvestor am 23.04.17 10:55:30Bitte immer mit Link zur Quelle.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/04/22/why-now-is-not-the…

Ich frage mich schon zur Motivation der Verfasser dieses Artikels, was sie damit bezwecken, und wie sie davon Leben.

Entweder sind es Altruisten, die uns nur vor Schaden bewahren wollen?
oder
Gekaufte Schreiber für die Shorties?
Meinungen.
Aktienrundschau: Valeant - Die beste Turnaroundaktie 2017
http://www.boerse-express.com/cat/pages/2877216/fullstory

Aktienrundschau: Valeant - Die beste Turnaroundaktie 2017

Montag, 24. April 2017

Sehr geehrte Investoren,

Valeant Pharmaceuticals ist ein Pharmaunternehmen welches durch das Aufkaufen von Unternehmen wie Medikamenten und anschließenden Preiserhöhungen zu einem globalen Giganten aufgestiegen ist. Seit 2008 wurden 150 Transaktionen im Volumen von über 35 Milliarden US Dollar getätigt. Seitdem in 2015 Ungereimtheiten in den Bilanzen entdeckt wurden wurde der gesamte Vorstand ausgetauscht sowie mehrmals bei den Umsatz- und Gewinnerwartungen zurück gerudert.

Seit über einem Jahr versucht der neue Vorstandsvorsitzenden Joe Papa den immensen Schuldenberg abzubauen. Anfang des Jahres konnte er durch den Verkauf von drei Hautpflegemarken und der Krebsmedikamentedivision Dendrean diesen um stolze sieben Prozent zurückfahren. Zudem wird auch auf neue Wirkstoffe mit Blockbusterpotential wie Brodalumab oder Relistor gesetzt. Das neue Medikament zur Behandlung von Schuppenflechte, Siliq, soll im zweiten Halbjahr für einen monatlichen Preis von 3500 US Dollar am Markt eingeführt werden und damit billiger sein als sämtliche Konkurrenzprodukte.

Der Starinvestor und Hedge Funds Manager Bill Ackman hat nach jahrelanger aktiver Unterstützung des Vorstand seine Anteile an Valeant mit Milliardenverlusten verkauft. Seitdem ist die Aktie weiter im Sinkflug. Die Bewertung ist erschreckend tief und um die aktuellen Kurse zur rechtfertigen müssen Aktionäre regelrecht ein Horrorszenario einpreisen. Das gesamte Unternehmen ist niedriger bewertet als der für dieses Jahr erwartete operative Gewinn vor Abschreibungen. Alleine im ersten Quartal erwarten Analysten ein Nettoergebnis von über 80 Cent pro Aktie.

Valeant schiebt neben den selbst zugefügten Imageproblemen weiterhin einen immensen Schuldenberg von 30 Milliarden US Dollar vor sich her. Es gilt diesen nun weiter abzubauen. Deswegen sollte es zum Verkauf weiterer Wirkstoffe und Sparten kommen. Da Zukäufe in naher Zukunft ausgeschlossen werden fokussiert sich Valeant auf die eigene Forschung und Entwicklung. Der Kurs der Aktie ist sehr stark ausgebombt und der Titel bietet eine interessantes Investitionsmöglichkeit für risikobewusste Investoren.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.755.935 von marty44 am 18.04.17 22:48:48






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