Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 41)

[Luki123]

RBC: Maintain at 98$---98$ mit 35% discount zur Vergleichsgruppe...ich lach mich schlapp

Die Aktie ist also eigentlich 135$ nun Wert..was passiert wenn die jetzt den FexjetDeal machen sollten ? dann müssen wir uns langsam wirklcih überlegen ob 100 EUR reichen...klar ist noch sehr weit hin, aber diese Aktie ist sowas von unterbewertet aktuell. Einfach unfassbar...deshalb heut -6%

Die schauen genau laut CC wann und wie die die schulden der Firma weiter optimieren können. Bart selbst sagte das der angepeilte leverage von meine ich 2,1 bedeuten würde das die bis 2025 weiter 1 MRD schulden tilgen müssten. denke das wir auf jedenfall passieren. Jetzt heißt es 138 + für gesamtjahr erreichen und die Prognosen übererfüllen. Dann können wir meiner meinung nach das Jahr 2024 genießen. Und wenn die es wirklcih noch packen nen fetten deal in Q4 einzupacken wäre der absolute Hammer.



Solid quarter sets the stage for strong end to 2023 and excellent momentum into 2024


Our view: The market is reacting very favourably to BBD's strong Q3 results. By all measures, the company is set to exceed its own 2023 guidance on virtually all metrics. This strong result (both on an absolute basis and relative to its peers) stands in stark contrast to the company's (in our view) severely discounted valuation (stock was down 40% off its March highs going into this quarter report). So despite the move today, we see significant further upside potential from here. Reiterate OP rating.


Key points:


• Q3/23 beat. EBITDA of $285MM (+36% y/y) was above consensus $261MM (RBC: $256MM) as the company had a nice beat across all key metrics of revenue, margins, EBITDA and FCF. Revenue of $1,856MM (cons $1,731MM) was driven by strong aircraft pricing (as deliveries of 31 aircraft was right in line). This pricing, the full margin effect of the Global 7500, and the strong Services contribution, all led to higher margin at 15.4% (cons 15.1%). FCF also came in above at $80MM (cons $35MM) while book to bill was solid at 1.1x.


• Management expecting to meet or exceed guidance. With the strength of Q3, we see mgmt as easily being able to exceed 2023 guidance on most metrics - particularly revenue, margins, EBITDA and EBIT. Furthermore, with significant deliveries expected in Q4, together with the release of associated inventory build through the year, the company is setting up for a very strong FCF quarter in Q4 (>$600MM). We caught up with mgmt after the call where they relayed that orders also have a degree of seasonality, along with a healthy pipeline point to a BTB of 1x for the year. Further, the momentum the company is enjoying should result in a good trend and set-up into 2024; which based on our estimates means that the 2025 (multi-year) guide is also looking increasingly "conservative" as well.


• Estimates higher (again). On the back of a very strong Q3 print, our 2023 estimates move higher and are above guidance on most metrics (see Exhibit 4). We are holding our 2024 and 2025 estimates intact for now, pending the company's release of its 2024 guidance when it reports its Q4 in February. Reminder the company also has 2025 guidance (which is the multi-year guidance it set in place in 2021 and revised higher in early 2023). We see upside potential to the 2025 guidance at the company's next investor event (date TBD).


• Stock really cheap. While the stock is spiking over 10% today, it has languished since hitting its recent high in March of this year. This poor share price performance since March (today's move aside) is fundamentally unwarranted in our view. At current levels, the stock is trading at ~5x EV/EBITDA on a 2025E basis, or a ~50% discount to peers. Our target multiple of 6.5x is based on a ~35% discount to peers and results in a PT of $98. Reiterate OP rating.

[Luki123]

Ich habe gerade mal das CC Transkscript gelesen

Und mein Fazit.

ES KANN NUT NACH OBEN GEHEN....

Selbst die Analysten sprechen von einer großen Diskrepanz bei. AKTIENPREIS zur geschäftlichen Entwicklung. Denke die nachkäufe werden sich lohnen..ich habe auf jedenfall nochmal was riskiert bei 28-29 eur


Bin mal auf die Analysten Kommentare gespannt..
Aber 11 % + hab ich hier bewusst nich nicht erlebt..

[neu_gierig]

Na endlich mal anst. Volumen

Und dann noch 11% PLUS - Gratuliere!

Na dann schauma mal wie lange es anhält, eigentlich müsste es mal eine Zeitlang steigen, aber wir wissen auch um die Vergangenheit (V-Bude)…

Aber jez werden nach u nach die Analysten zu Wort kommen, dann vl. FlexJet u d die Investorentage Im Nov. u. Dez. = Frohe Weihnachten !!📈📈

Und E.M. Ist ja auch guter Dinge- No Na…

https://www.lesaffaires.com/secteurs/general/bombardier-assu…

[neu_gierig]

Die Manipulation

Geht ja schon wieder weiter, das kann ja nicht sein, seit 3,5 Stunden fast keine Bewegung, ok 9-10% Plus sind eh genug, trotzdem, es wird halt schon wieder manipuliert, der Kurs wird sich aber heute noch um das eine oder andere %erl verändern, glaube ich zumindest…

[neu_gierig]

Oha

Sogar in der Schlagzeilenleiste bei ntv gab es die Nachricht : Privatjet-Boom bei Bombardier, 28% + usw, usw

Und ein Schlußkurs bei knapp unter 50 wär für heute genug, sonst „überhitzt“ das ganze evtl…?

[neu_gierig]

naja

10% PLUS, mit 60.000 Stk,... hmm, wie soll man das nur deuten...

[Luki123]

Erster Blick von TD

TD First look: Positive
Event

Bombardier reported Q3/23 Adjusted EBITDA of $285 million, compared to our forecast of $245 million and consensus of $262 million.

Impact: POSITIVE

We believe that stronger-than-forecast Q3/23 EBITDA, positive FCF and unchanged full year guidance (which we believe has upside) should be viewed positively by investors. Total revenue growth of 28%, delivery growth of 24%, 11% aftermarket revenue growth and unchanged 2023 delivery guidance (implies 12% full-year growth) is encouraging. Q3/23 FCF and unchanged guidance in particular should help alleviate investor concerns that have been weighing on the share price.

Revenue of $1.86 billion increased 28% y/y (TD/consensus: $1.72 billion/$1.74 billion). Deliveries increased to 31 aircraft (TD: 31), with two fewer large aircraft and two more medium aircraft than estimated. Services revenue increased 11% y/y to $414 million (TD: $391 million).

Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 100 bps y/y to 15.4% (TD/consensus: 14.2%/15.1%) was due to Global 7500 margins, volume, aftermarket growth, and cost management. Orders: Book-to-bill (units) of 1.1x demonstrates the expected moderation from the strong levels of the past two years, and compares to GD's 1.3x in Aerospace and Cessna's 1.4x (biased higher due to delivery delays).

Backlog decreased $200 million sequentially to $14.7 billion, but remains strong, and supportive of our expectations for delivery growth through at least 2025. While supportive of the outlook, we don't believe the book-to-bill is strong enough to help alleviate those investors concerned about the cycle. We view the book-to-bill as an expected normalization

Free cash flow was $80 million (TD: $19 million). The difference was primarily due to contract liabilities and trade payables, partially offset by capex and inventory.

Balance Sheet: Trailing 4-quarter Adjusted net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA declined sequentially to 4.1x (TD: 4.3x) from 4.5x. The company has $1.2 billion of liquidity, of which $1.0 billion is cash equivalents.

Guidance: No change to full year guidance of >138 deliveries (TD: 138), revenue > $7.6 billion (TD: $7.88 billion), Adjusted EBITDA >$1.125 billion (TD: $1.18 billion), Adjusted EBIT >$695 million (TD: $745 million), and FCF >$250 million (TD: $293 million).

[neu_gierig]

Deutscheland...

ist der Kurs eh schon 2,6% im PLUS, haha, aber ist halt der Greißlermarkt zu Kanada und überhaupt kein Maßstab!!!!

[neu_gierig]

hahaha...

jaja, ich weiß, bin ja bei dir, aber wir haben in den letzten Monaten genug gesehen, wer weiß was die V-Bude wieder aus dem Hut zaubert....

[Luki123]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.734.949 von neu_gierig am 02.11.23 11:57:50

Also alles unter +8% heute wäre lächerlich

bei dem positiven marktumfeld