Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 5)

[Luki123]

Nat. Bank von 95 CAD auf 92 Cad

Nat bank : Steady progress
Q1 deliveries below forecast, but new jet demand
remains healthy

Q1 results slightly below forecast

Bombardier reported Q1 results this morning that were below NBF and
consensus forecasts due to lower than forecasted jet deliveries, but
management indicates that it remains on track to meet its 2024 guidance. For
more detail, see our Q1 results Flash (link to BBD Q1/24 results Flash).

2024 guidance unchanged

While aircraft deliveries were lower than expected in Q1 at 20 versus our
forecast for 24 (largely due to timing), management reiterated its target of
150-155 deliveries for the full year. Financial guidance is also unchanged at
$8.4-$8.6 billion in revenue with EBITDA forecasted in a range of $1.30-$1.35
billion with EBIT of $850-$900 million. Free cash flow usage in Q1 also came
in higher than expected, but management is still guiding to 2024 FCF of $100-
$400 million and $900 million in 2025, which still looks achievable.

Backlog grows nicely and demand looks healthy

Backlog was $14.9 billion at the end of Q1 versus $14.2 billion at the end of
last quarter and the book-to-bill was 1.6x (no cancellations in the quarter).
Bombardier management indicates that demand for new jets remains healthy
with more orders for Global model jets in Q1. Furthermore, global flying
activity on Bombardier model jets is running 7% higher y/y, which we view as a
solid leading indicator that order activity should remain solid.

Maintain OP; target trimmed to C$92.00

We maintain our Outperform rating on Bombardier shares and have trimmed
our target slightly to C$92.00 from C$95.00 previously. Our thesis on
Bombardier is unchanged; we see steady progress towards the company’s
2025 financial targets underpinned by still healthy business jet end market
conditions that we expect will ultimately drive a material increase in the
share price.

[Luki123]

CIBC von 61 CAD auf 67 CAD

CIBC: Less sceptic than before

Continuing To De-risk The Operations

Our Conclusion

BBD’s Q1 results highlight the success the company is having in de-risking
its operations as it continues to build a wider liquidity and margin buffer. Our
price target moves from C$61 to C$67 and we keep our Neutral rating.

Key Points

BBD’s Q1 results continue to highlight the success the company is having in
de-risking its operations. The concern we often hear from investors is how
BBD will perform through the cycle, recognizing business jet fundamentals
are healthy today. BBD continues to take steps to widen the liquidity and
margin buffer.

On the liquidity front, BBD exited Q1 with pro forma liquidity of $1.42B, which
is at the high end of its targeted range of $1.0B-$1.5B. Net leverage at the
end of the quarter was 3.6x. The company also continues to make progress
on debt reduction, with $100MM of debt redemption closed on April 15. BBD
also successfully completed the issuance of $750MM of Senior Notes due
2031, the proceeds of which will be used to repay existing outstanding debts.
This effectively pushes out maturities and further strengthens the balance
sheet. BBD is targeting a leverage ratio of 2.0x-2.5x in 2025.

On the margin front, BBD printed 16% EBITDA margin in Q1, up 141 bps Y/Y
and versus 9.2% back in Q1/21. The company noted Aftermarket Services
in Q1 grew 13% Y/Y to $477MM and contributed 37% of total revenue.
Growth in Aftermarket revenue, combined with healthy jet sales prices and
cost management, drove the margin expansion we saw in the quarter. This
highlights the revenue diversification strategy at BBD, which improves mix
but also should help reduce the cyclicality in margins.

The backlog also provides BBD with significant visibility. At the end of the
quarter, the backlog stood at $14.9B and this equates to more than two
years of revenue. Recent trends also point to demand remaining healthy. In
Q1, book to bill was 1.6x, which is up significantly from 1.0x exiting 2023,
and the backlog was up $700MM Q/Q.

Heading to BBD’s Investor Day next week, we expect more colour on the
company’s longer-term capital allocation plans and margin upside post-2025.
On the former, we think BBD will look to alleviate concerns that it will need to
enter into a new capex cycle heading into the back half of this decade to fund
a new mid-size aircraft, which is supportive of cumulative FCF generation.
The Challenger continues to sell well, so there isn’t any urgency to replace
this model. We also expect more colour on the growth and expansion of
Aftermarket Service, which has been a lift on margins, and potential growth
opportunities within Defense. Recall that BBD’s 2025 target is to reach $2B
of revenue in Aftermarket, and the company thinks Defense could reach $1B
within the next five years.

[Luki123]

Desjardins -> BBD from $96.00 to $101.00.

Desjardins : Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot
1Q24 recap—bookings are “Feeling Hot Hot Hot”

The Desjardins Takeaway

Overall, we view the results as positive given the stronger-than-expected bookings in
the quarter and management’s positive commentary on the environment as well as
the balance of the year. At next week’s investor day, we do not expect any changes/
surprises in BBD’s existing 2025 targets as discussions will most likely centre on capital
deployment and the growth opportunities for the company’s aftermarket, defence and
certified pre-owned businesses.

Highlights

Financials miss slightly, mainly due to timing issues and heavy Challenger delivery
mix—guidance reaffirmed and investors unconcerned. We now forecast 2024 revenue
of US$8,402m, adjusted EBITDA of US$1,303m (15.5% margin) and FCF of US$271m,
driven by 152 deliveries in 2024 (78 Challengers and 74 Globals). We expect the bulk of
the working capital investment to occur in 1H as BBD builds up its inventories for the
year (we forecast continued FCF consumption of -US$193m in 2Q).

Bizjet market conditions remain robust—BBD hits 1Q bookings out of the park. The
backlog ended 1Q at US$14.9b, up sequentially from US$14.2b. This represents a book
to bill of 1.6x in units and 1.9x in sales and bookings. BBD reaffirmed that demand for its
products remains strong across the globe despite economic headwinds, with booking
activity in Europe picking up once again (had several Global orders from Europe in 1Q;
the Dassault 6X and 10X delays could be a factor, in our view). Management also stated
that it booked a nice Global defence order in the quarter. Combining these items with
industry flight activity and commentary, we believe BBD has a clear line of sight in its
sales pipeline to reach a book to bill of 1x in 2024.

Valuation

Increasing our target to C$101 (from C$96) as we adjust our estimates and await the
investor day next week. Our target is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.6x on our
2024 EBITDA forecast of US$1,303m. We have adjusted our exchange rate to C$1.37/
US$1 (from C$1.35/US$1) to reflect current market rates.

Recommendation

Reiterating our bullish stance. We believe the current share price level provides an
interesting entry point for long-term investors (see our recent note detailing our upside
vs downside scenario analysis).

[Luki123]

TD cowen 104Cad von 102Cad

TD: Upgrade

Q1/24; MARGIN JUMP AND STRONG ORDERS ADD TO STORY

THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

Bombardier reported Q1/24 Adjusted EBITDA of $205 million vs. our forecast of $216
million and consensus of $224 million. A significant step-up in margin despite delivery and
mix pressure points to much more margin expansion potential ahead. This combined with
strengthening order activity and a show of confidence from management overshadowed
the usual Q1 FCF usage, and delivery weakness

Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and increasing our target to C$104 from C
$102. The increased target reflects slightly higher forecast adjusted EBITDA, partially offset
by higher valuation-period net debt resulting from the greater-than-forecast Q1/24 FCF
usage. Our updated adjusted EBITDA estimates primarily reflect the carry forward of a
portion of the stronger-than-forecast Q1/24 margins.

Bombardier reported a good quarter that provided the equity market with confidence in
certain metrics that had previously and, in our view, incorrectly been a concern for market.
The stock moved up 8% on the day which demonstrates equity market enthusiasm for
the highest margin in over 20 years, and the 1.6x book-to-bill ratio which depicts cyclical
health and suggests a strong competitive position for the company's product portfolio. In
previous quarterly reports, significant FCF usage early in the year, which was the case again
in Q1/24, seemed to be a concern. This quarter, the market appears to be looking past early
cash outflows, accepting that it should reverse over the course of the year, and instead
focusing on what we believe is a significant fundamental undervaluation for a business that
has numerous appealing investment attributes.

We forecast 2024 and 2025 EBITDA margin of 16.0% and 18.0%, respectively, with margin
expansion driven by higher aftermarket services revenue growth, increased deliveries, and
mix shift. Our 2025 adjusted EBIT margin forecast of 12.9% compares to GD's (BUY; current
price $284.94; target $315.00) 2024 EBIT margin guidance for its Aerospace segment of
15.0%, suggesting additional upside to margins in the long term, in our view.

2024 guidance was re-iterated and continues to imply strong revenue and earnings growth,
strong (albeit down y/y) FCF and declining financial leverage. As expected, inventory
investments should continue in Q2, although moderating sequentially. The company is
hosting an Investor Day on May 1, and we believe the 2025 leverage target is the most
likely (and potentially only) metric to be updated.

[neu_gierig]

ohhh, jez übertreiben sie es wieder mal...

ok, in die andere Richtung, aber wie lange?

na vl. gibts ja ein noch schöneres Wochenende, aber heute ist doch Freitag, kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass es so dunkelGRÜN bleibt!!!

[neu_gierig]

puhh...

naja, so richtig ernst war es mir ja mit den 12% nicht wirklich, obwohl es ja kurz mal sogar schon 9% waren! Schl.endl. bin ich aber froh, die 12% nicht gesehen zu haben, da hätten wir heute wieder anständig Gewinnmitnahmen gesehen, ja, die werden wir heute trotzdem sehen, aber vl. nicht sooo viele... und vl. auch wieder nur am Anfang, da werden die Stops wieder abgeholt so wie gestern, dass war schon richtig ARG, aber ok, gehört ansch. auch dazu, die Kleinalnleger abzuzocken?? Übrigens, Volumen war gestern wenigstens auch richtig, richtig TOLL!!! 1,5 Mio, jaaa, da wurde anst. zugelangt und wer weiß was da noch kommt....🤷‍♂️
Und nächst Woche gibt es ja den I-Tag, wer weiß was da für "Ansagen" kommen, naja, nach den gestrigen Zahlen werden in einigen Köpfen etwaige Erwartungen, Wünsche, Fantasien, Träume ect., ect. weiter befeuert....
Naja, bis zur nächsten V-Bude Action, dann ist es wieder die größte 💩Aktie usw.... Aber das ist Börse, uns Longis is des wurscht, naja, nicht ganz, diese 💩V-Bude geht mir trotzdem auf den A....,
Und was sagen LUKI u ICH immer wieder, kaufenkaufenkaufen, ALLES WIRD GUT und es wird alles GUT - es dauert halt!!!! 📈📈📈

[Luki123]

Na 12 % + wird es eher nicht....

Aber es scheint ein möglicher Wendepunkt zu sein..jetzt liefern und über das Jahr verteilt positive Nachrichten..das wird denke ich nen schönes jahr..

[neu_gierig]

ohhh

schaut ja doch eher nach 12% PLUS aus!!

[neu_gierig]

uih, das böse Spiel der V-Bude...

Eröffnung und Sekunden!!! später, 54,04 C$, GENAU 2,32 Minuten !!! SPÄTER 60,00 und über 200.000 Stk ! hmm, ganz normaler Handel, wie immer halt.... 🤮🤮🤮💩💩💩

[Luki123]

Desjadins: expect a positive trading reaction

Desjadins: expect a positive trading reaction
Flash report

BBD hits bookings out of the park—we expect a positive trading reaction

Total revenue came in at US$1,281m in 1Q24, below consensus of US$1,503m and our estimate of US $1,477m. Adjusted EBITDA was US$205m (16.0% margin), below consensus of US$225m (15.0%) and our forecast of US$210m (14.2%), and adjusted EBIT was US$142m (11.1% margin), below consensus of US$148m but above our forecast of US$133m. Finally, FCF (investors’ main focus) of -US$387m came in below consensus of -US$345m but above our forecast of -US$468m.

We expect a positive trading reaction this morning given the stronger-than-expected bookings in the quarter, despite the slight miss on financials due to lower deliveries and a change in mix to Challengers (we calculate that the book-to-bill ratio would still have been 1.4x if BBD had delivered the consensus number of jets in the quarter). For FCF, we believe the Street was expecting far worse than where consensus was sitting, so the slight miss will likely not be seen as a concern by investors, in our view. For EBITDA, the margin outperformed despite the slight miss due to lower deliveries—this should be the focus. The conference call (8am EDT; dial-in 514-316-5035) will be key for monitoring the (1) debt repayment strategy; and (2) level of customer booking activity in the market.

BBD delivered 20 jets in 1Q (8 Globals and 12 Challengers vs 22 units in 1Q23), slightly below consensus of 23 and our estimate of 22. The backlog ended 1Q at US$14.9b, up sequentially from US$14.2b (excludes the 200+ order options from large operators). This represents a book-to-bill of 1.6x based on net new aircraft orders over aircraft deliveries in unit terms (vs 0.9x in 4Q23 and 0.9x in 1Q23). We calculate that the book-to-bill in terms of sales and bookings was 1.9x in the quarter (for a better comparison with Gulfstream, where 1Q book-to-bill was 1.2x). Adjusted net debt/TTM EBITDA came in at 3.6x, up sequentially from 3.3x last quarter (we expected 3.6x). As of March 31, pro forma liquidity was ~US$1.4b and pro forma net debt was ~US$4.4b. Following the end of the quarter, BBD continued to make progress on debt reduction, with a US$100m redemption which closed on April 15.

On a segmented basis, bizjet manufacturing generated sales of US$804m (-22% yoy), below consensus of US$956m (we expected US$1,010m), and aftermarket generated sales of US$477m (13% yoy; we expected US$466m). Most importantly, BBD maintained its 2024 guidance—revenue US$8.4–8.6b, adjusted EBITDA US$1,300–1,350m, adjusted EBIT US$850–900m, FCF US$100–400m and deliveries 150–155 units