Dell Confirms JJC`s Fears About Tech - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[investor_007]

Dell Confirms JJC`s Fears About Tech
By James J. Cramer

1/22/01 8:40 AM ET




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So Michael Dell bought a ton of stock and everybody went nuts and started recommending it. Guys were recommending Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - boards) just this morning!! Ahead of the blowup. Maybe this disappointment will be like Gateway (GTW:NYSE - news - boards), where people shrug it off. Somehow, I don`t think it will. Dell`s been a juggernaut since the year began. Tech stocks have been animals since Jan. 1. Now, though, we recognize that maybe it was just the stocks that were animals, not the companies. The companies, frankly, still are doing poorly. Yes, Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - boards) had an uptick, but Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) had a downtick. Now so did Dell.

Suddenly, it looks like we have some quicksand where there seemed to be steel. And we have to focus on how real the turn is, or whether it is simply a turn of momentum and not of earnings. Supply got tight in stock, not in the personal computer world.

This weekend some joker emailed me and wanted to know what I am doing recommending stocks like Ford (F:NYSE - news - boards) and Philip Morris (MO:NYSE - news - boards) and dissing tech. I guess he probably would have been thrilled if I had issued an Action Alert on Dell last Tuesday.

Sorry, I know the drill with tech. If you recommend it, and you are avowedly a longer-term player, you can`t say "I like Dell" on Tuesday and say "I hate Dell" on Friday. That`s hedge-fund logic. I retired from that game. If I put out an Action Alert, I do so because I want to buy some now and buy more if it goes down. (Here I am thinking of Bank of New York (BK:NYSE - news - boards) which got hit Friday off some State Street (STT:NYSE - news - boards) news, as they are correlative.) I don`t put it on because I want you to make four points and go.

I see tech rallying, but I know the truth about tech, which is that it hasn`t been getting better. It has been getting worse. Sure, if the Fed eases big again, we could catch a wave, but in the interim I have my reputation at stake and I am not going to abuse it by telling you "Dell is the stock of the future" and then blowing you up come Monday morning. That makes me into the stock version of Ralph Kramden`s Chef of the Future.

Sure, there are tech stocks I like. I think Microsoft can be bought. I looked at Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - boards) this weekend and am tempted on a dip to buy it, as I thought the Oracle interview on the site this weekend answered a lot of the worries. (Not all of them though, as I suspect Oracle, which is on a different earnings cycle from most stocks, is having a backend loaded quarter.) You know I love America Online (AOL:NYSE - news - boards). But I am waiting on the Ciscos (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards) and the Nokias (NOK:NYSE ADR - news - boards), as much as I like them, because I want to see improvement in more than just the stocks. I want to see the improvements in the business. Hasn`t happened yet. So I will wait. We learned last year that patience and cash are two great friends. Let`s not abandon them so fast.

Random musings: CEO of Micromuse (MUSE:Nasdaq - news - boards) on the tube this morning. He`s a good operator, and those who favor highfliers can stick with this one. I like that company.



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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for the network of TSC sites and serves as an adviser to the company`s CEO. Nonstaff contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to [e-mail].

[investor_007]

Watch out for Corvis (CORV http://tscquote.thestreet.com/StockQuotes.jhtml?tkr=CORV

Without a doubt, the Corvis lockup would be my focus this week. With just over 184 million shares being released on Jan. 23, this situation represents significant opportunity for shorts.