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[ThaiGuru]

@bluemoons

Interessante Postings zu und über Gold, die Du da immer wieder postest!

#2973 hat es auch auf den Punkt gebracht, was mit unserer Altersversorgung passieren kann. Besser selbst vorsorgen, und noch etwas mehr physisches Gold kaufen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Steady, Silver Creeping Up

November 11 - Gold $320.70 down 30 cents - Silver $4.57 up 5 cents

With the banks closed in the US in observance of Veterans Day, the gold trade was very subdued. Attempts to take gold back down below $320 failed, but tomorrow will be the more crucial test of just where gold stands in the short term.

Silver continues to creep higher. If it takes out $4.60, it should run.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.29, PM $3.25, with world gold at $320 and $321. Well above legal import levels, despite the latter being towards the high of the day. India is clearly a resolute buyer at these levels, no doubt being instrumental in the now regular rallies in the small hours NY time (Bombay is 10 ½ hours ahead). The rupee reached another recovery high today.

TOCOM finally turned in an interesting day, with volume quadrupling over Friday’s to the equivalent of 40,675 Comex contracts. The active contract fell 16
yen and US $ gold slipped $1.30 from the NY close. Most observers assumed that the abrupt 1 ½ yen jump of the yen v. the dollar spooked Japanese longs (generally thought to be more interested in the Y/$ rate than the gold price) to sell:

"In Asia the strength of the Japanese yen proved to be too much for Tocom long-holders who were stopped out of their speculative positions and sold good quantities of gold"

says UBS Warburg.

"Gold tumbled over 321 on ..general public’s massive liquidation on Tocom, and went as low as 320 offer. Trade virtually avoided the relentless selling until 320.50 where they started to insert scale-down bids."

Moans Mitsui- HK. Wrong! TOCOM open interest figures reveal a decline of only 344 Comex contract equivalent. Clearly the feature of the day was not the capitulation of stale longs (which, however, no doubt happened) but the hammering by arbitraging "Trade houses" (which includes Mitsui) of bargain hunting demand - otherwise open interest would have gone down by more than 0.27% on such a large volume. (NY on Friday traded 37,154 lots; open interest rose 833
contracts.)

Standard London offers the key in its’ remarks about Friday’s action:

"Initial buying in the Far East failed to make a major impact as selling from physical counter parties in Hong Kong and Singapore capped the attempted rally."

Sellers armed with ample supplies of physical were lying in wait for gold in Japan, where the yen action could reasonably be expected to cause serious weakness. Despite quadrupling the volume, they were defeated: arbitrage sales by the Trade houses found buyers in Japan: and ultimately the market was rescued by India and the Middle East.

UBS Warburg ruefully notes that a 59% increase in FXreserves by major gold producer Australia this year has not lead to a proportionate increase in gold holdings. More significantly there has been a quintupling of FX Reserves in Japan since ’92. Since most of this has gone into dollars, it is questionable how much more the Japanese authorities can do. Others might wonder:

What happened in the early 90s to allow this prodigious accumulation of Asiatic FX reserves (China, HK, Taiwan, and Japan) to lift off?

Was the resulting conspicuous dollar over concentration (and, of course absence of gold purchasing) an accident?

The main threat to gold currently is the very low MarketVane Bullish Consensus on the $, on Friday at 17%, a point lower than the late June & mid July low, and the build up in large spec Comex longs, which UBS estimates at 7.2 Mm ozs, about 3Mm ozs short of recent maximums. The main positive is that the main current buyers – harassed Indian fathers of brides, and possibly others- do not care about these considerations.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[ThaiGuru]

John Hathaway presents valuable input in his new video at his Toqueville Fund web site:

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=33

When the price of gold soars, the Aussies won’t look too smart. Throw them in with the Brits and Swiss:

Gold reserves plunge

By Gerard McManus
11 November 2002

AUSTRALIA holds less gold than Indonesia following the Reserve Bank`s controversial decision to dump the metal in favour of cash.

The latest gold holding rankings, issued by the World Gold Council, show Australia at 34th, close behind Indonesia and its 95.5 tonnes.

Despite the resurgence in the price of gold, Australia holds only 79.7 tonnes - worth about $1.5 billion - in the Reserve Bank`s vaults.

Other nations now ahead of Australia include tiny Singapore, the Philippines, Venezuela and impoverished Algeria and Turkey.

The United States has the largest holding of gold, with 8149 tonnes or almost 56 per cent of the world total.

It is followed by Germany, with 3445 tonnes; the International Monetary Fund, with 3217 tonnes; and France, with 3024 tonnes.

Australia has 3.9 per cent of its reserves in the form of gold, despite being one of the world`s largest gold producers.

Five years ago, the Reserve Bank turned its back on the Australian gold industry by joining a few other central bankers in dumping its gold reserves on the open market.

In 1997, Australia had 167 tonnes of gold and its decision to leave the gold market resulted in a disastrous sell-off of the precious metal.

In the past six months, the price of gold has begun to climb back and has benefited from a break in the value of the US dollar, which appears to have ended its inexorable climb upwards.

If gold continues to climb, the 1997 decision may turn out to be the most costly in the history of the Reserve Bank.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

From Jim Sinclair;

Dear Friends: "The is a heads up"

There is a strong possibility that gold is headed here above the $330. No longer is $330 the key number. A close above $326 indicated a 92% probability that gold will reach $348 in two legs after a close above $326. The Two legs would be $326 to $332 to $348.

We therefore will exercise extreme care this time and may in all probability not, I repeat not sell our 1/3 position. It is expected that the negative pressure on gold present in this entire sideways chop from $300 to $330 may exhaust itself by the close of Friday of this week. HEADS UP now and keen attention to potential of a completion very soon in a positive sense of the Handle of the Three-year Long Golden Tea Cup with a Handle.


A CLOSE ABOVE $326 IS THE SIGNAL MORE SO THAN A CLOSE ABOVE $330.


www.lemetropolecafe.com

[keepitshort]

12.Nov.02 ca. 10.50 Berlin-Time

der Goldpreis ist wieder gestiegen
der Goldpreis reagiert seit ca. 6 Monaten
auf Veränderungen im Nasdaq100

vor ca. 12 Monaten war das anders
da hab ich hier sogar mal gepostet
dass ich es nicht verstehe dass der
Nasdaq100 um ca. 2% sinkt und der Goldpreis sinkt

die Zeiten sind vorbei nachdem Greenspan
fast alle Kugeln verschossen hat

ein Kollege stellte es hier bildlich dar
6,5% fed-funds-rate
es wird in 0,25% Schritten gesenkt

6,5 : 0,25 = 26 Schuss Munition

1,75% fed-funds-rate sind nur noch 7 Kugeln im Gewehr

die letzte Senkung war 0,5% also 2 Kugeln verschossen

aktueller Stand
1,25% fed-funds-rate sind nur noch 5 Kugeln zum verschiessen
und ob Greenspan mit 5 Kugeln einen Greezly-Bär töten kann
ist zu bezweifeln
denn mit 21 Kugeln die bereits verschossen wurden
konnten die Bären nicht getötet werden.

Klar wurden einige Bären getötet aber da sind noch einige
da und Greenspan hat nur noch 5 Kugeln.

Die restlichen Bären gehen zum Angriff über.

[skeet.ht]

Gold als dritte Währung.....

ich habe gehört das der Iran und Malaysia einer gemeinsamen Gold Währung dem Gold Dinar
zugestimmt haben und das diese Währung für alle Islamischen Länder eingeführt werden soll.

Ist das ein Gerücht oder hat diese Info Substanz?

[konradi]

@ skeet

http://archive.muslim-news.net

Stichwort "gold" eingeben.

Grundsätzlich sollte man sowas aber nicht überbewerten.
Wirklich interessant wäre es, wenn sich z.B. die Schweiz dazu entschlösse,
aber das ist wohl noch recht aberwitzig

(siehe Thread: Katastrophe ... ? - welche Katastrophe ? Beitrag # 79)

Gruß Konradi

[skeet.ht]

@konradi
Erst mal Danke!
Überbewährten darf man das nicht, ist klar!
Aber es hat symbolischen Charakter da es die IWF Doktrin, Gold als Währung zu „mißbrauchen“, unterläuft.

Gruß

[keepitshort]

@skeet.ht

Grundsätzlich sollte man sowas aber nicht überbewerten

man sollte aber den Einfluss vom Islam und den
Islam-Mächtigen auf die Wirtschaft nicht unterschätzen.

Mit Islam-Mächtigen meine ich nicht die tief im
Glauben verwurzelt sind sondern
Mächtige die von einer Religion profitieren

wie z.B. die katholische Kirche von der Kirchensteuer
in Deutschland (Staat und Kriche nicht ganz getrennt).

Im Islam gibt es irgendwie eine Regel keine Zinsen
zu verlangen
für mich ist so eine Verquickung von Staat und Islam
schwer durchschaubar auch im Wirtschaftsbereich.

Es wird viel gepredigt doch die Wirklichkeit sieht oft
ganz anders aus.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpDck0bKbyta0otu&…

November 12, 2002 12:04

Coeur Reports 47% Increase in Third Quarter Silver Production and 28% Reduction in Cash Costs

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 12, 2002--Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE):

Highlights


-- Produced a record 3.8 million ounces of silver during the
quarter (up 47% over last year`s third quarter)

-- For the first nine months, Coeur produced a record 10.0
million ounces of silver (a 28% increase compared to last
year`s first nine months)

-- Achieved consolidated silver cash costs of $2.92 per ounce
during the third quarter, compared to $4.07 per ounce in last
year`s third quarter, representing a 28% decline

-- Cerro Bayo produced nearly 900,000 ounces of silver in the
third quarter at a silver cash cost of $0.91 per ounce

-- Reduced total outstanding indebtedness $25 million, or nearly
19%, since June 30, 2002

[/b][/u] -- Generated positive exploration results in Chile and Argentina[/b][/u]

Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Coeur continued its turnaround during the third quarter. Once again, production increased dramatically, costs decreased significantly, and our outstanding indebtedness was considerably reduced. On the exploration front, we continue to discover new veins at Cerro Bayo in Chile, while recent drill results at Martha in Argentina continue to return spectacular widths and grades. Production continued to ramp up at Cerro Bayo and Martha and we expect increased production and even lower cash costs in the fourth quarter. In North America, both of our operations remain on-track to meet and possibly exceed our previous 2002 production estimates. Company-wide, we expect to finish 2002 with approximately 14.5 million ounces of silver production, 110,000 ounces of gold production, and consolidated silver cash costs of approximately $3.00 per ounce. Finally, although silver prices softened during the third quarter, we have seen recent strengthening in the price for silver and in our share price. We continue to believe that the fundamentals remain strong and maintain our positive outlook for silver prices going forward."

Financial Summary

During the third quarter, Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation ("Coeur" or "the Company") (NYSE: CDE) generated $26.5 million of revenues, a 55% increase from the third quarter of 2001. For the first nine months of 2002, Coeur reported revenues of $65.7 million compared to $55.1 million of revenues for the first nine months of 2001. These increases are mostly attributable to revenues generated by Cerro Bayo, which began production in April of this year.

Coeur`s mines continued to operate more efficiently during the third quarter and the first nine months of this year, a trend that is expected to continue in the fourth quarter and into 2003 as production increases from the low-cost Cerro Bayo and Martha mines. Cash used in operating activities was $2.3 million during the third quarter, which represents a significant improvement compared to the $9.8 million of cash used in operating activities during last year`s third quarter. For the first nine months of 2002, $7.7 million was used in operating activities compared to $25.7 million during the first nine months of 2001. Coeur generated $2.8 million of positive net cash flow during the month of September and the Company expects to generate continued positive cash flow throughout the remainder of the year.

The Company`s balance sheet continues to strengthen. At September 30, 2002, working capital was $38.8 million, while cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $7.4 million. Shareholders` equity was $52.6 million at the end of the quarter, up from $26.8 million at December 31, 2001. Total debt at the end of the third quarter was $103.7 million, down from $145.5 million at December 31, 2001. During the third quarter of 2002, holders of $24 million of the Series I and II 13 3/8% Notes voluntarily converted into 17.7 million shares of common stock, bringing the Company`s total outstanding common shares to 100.3 million at September 30, 2002.

For the quarter, Coeur reported a net loss of $12.3 million, or $0.14 per share. This compares to $26.9 million, or $0.62 per share, of net income during the third quarter of 2001, which included a $39.2 million gain on the early retirement of debt. For the first nine months of 2002, Coeur reported a net loss of $35.1 million, or $0.51 per share, which compares to $15.2 million of reported net income, or $0.37 per share, during the first nine months of 2001, which included a $48.2 million gain on the early retirement of debt.

Excluding the 2001 gains on the early retirement of debt, Coeur`s net loss remained consistent with last year`s comparable periods. Increased revenues and lower unit cash costs were off-set by higher interest expense during this year`s third quarter and nine months of $4.1 million and $6.6 million as a result of make-whole interest payments made to holders of the Company`s 13 3/8% Senior Notes who voluntarily converted their Notes into equity. The make-whole interest was paid with common shares.

For the third quarter, Coeur sold its silver at an average price of $4.65 per ounce compared to an average realized price during last year`s third quarter of $4.26 per ounce. For its gold production, Coeur realized an average price of $315 per ounce during the third quarter compared to an average gold price of $278 per ounce during the same period last year.

Overview of Operations

South America

Cerro Bayo (Chile)


-- 881,000 ounces of silver and 15,000 ounces of gold produced
during the third quarter

-- Cash costs of $0.91 per ounce of silver

-- Silver production expected to double and gold production
expected to increase 50% in current quarter; cash costs
expected to decline to $0.65 per ounce of silver

-- New high-grade vein structures intersected during recent
drilling program

-- On track to produce 3.0 million ounces of silver and 44,000
ounces of gold for 2002
During its first full quarter of operations, Cerro Bayo tripled its silver production and more than doubled its gold production compared to the second quarter. Cash costs during the quarter were $0.91 per ounce of silver, down 61% from the second quarter.

Wider than anticipated veins, primarily the Lucero vein, required expanded stope development during the quarter. As a result, production levels for the quarter were somewhat lower than projected. However, production during the fourth quarter and into early 2003 will increase as these additional ounces are mined. In addition, Coeur expects silver production to double and gold production to increase 50% in the fourth quarter while cash costs are expected to decline a further 30% to $0.65 per ounce of silver.

The Company stepped-up its exploration activities during the third quarter. Four drill rigs are currently active on the property and the program has been designed to increase reserves and resources and improve the Company`s geologic understanding of the highly prospective 5 km wide by 10 km long Cerro Bayo mineralized zone. While drilling on the Celia vein -- one of the main sources of new reserves -- Coeur intersected two new veins. Select values from these intercepts on the new Marta vein located 80 feet west of the Celia vein included 6.6 feet of 36.3 oz/ton silver and 0.17 oz/ton gold and 4.0 feet of 42.9 oz/ton silver and 0.39 oz/ton gold. Drilling activities are scheduled to continue throughout the fourth quarter.

Martha (Argentina)


-- Hauled approximately 1,800 tons of ore to Cerro Bayo averaging
98 ounces per ton silver during the third quarter

-- Poor weather conditions during third quarter slowed the
transportation of ore to Cerro Bayo for processing

-- Positive exploration results were achieved during the quarter
Coeur began hauling ore from Martha to Cerro Bayo for processing during the third quarter. However, record rainfall in the region restricted the amount of ore that was transported. The Company expects to triple the tons of ore that are shipped to Cerro Bayo during the fourth quarter.

On November 5, Coeur announced continued exploration success at Martha. Since commencing a reverse circulation drill program in August, Coeur has drilled a total of 52 holes totaling approximately 3,500 meters (11,550 feet). Based on these results, Coeur has increased the total resource at Martha 24% to 4.0 million silver equivalent ounces with an average grade of 3,800 grams per tonne silver (110 ounces per ton). These new resources are located immediately adjacent to and below the current underground workings and should extend Martha`s mine life. Drilling is also delineating additional high grade mineralization in the eastern part of the Martha mine, which has the potential to further increase the total amount of resources.

Additional resources are also being delineated along the main Martha vein at the R-4 prospect located 100 meters (330 feet) east of the Martha mine. Select values from these reverse circulation holes include:


-- 1.0 meter (3.3 feet) of 11,008 grams per tonne silver
equivalent (322 ounces per ton).

-- 11.5 meters (38.0 feet) of 4,165 grams per tonne silver
equivalent (122 ounces per ton). Within this intercept, 6.0
meters (20.0 feet) of 7,273 grams per tonne silver equivalent
(212 ounces per ton) was intersected.

-- 20.5 meters (67.0 feet) of 1,067 grams per tonne silver
equivalent (31 ounces per ton). Within this intercept, 3.5
meters (11.5 feet) of 3,947 grams per tonne silver equivalent
(115 ounces per ton) was intersected.
The Company`s exploration efforts to date indicate that the main Martha vein is prospective over a 1,600 meter (5,250 feet) strike length. Drilling continues on the Martha vein and on the two new veins that have been identified in the area. Over the coming weeks, Coeur is confident that nearly all of the current 4.0 million ounces of existing resources will be converted to proven and probable reserves and that additional mineralized material will be added.

North America

Rochester Mine (Nevada) -- World`s 7th largest silver mine


-- 1.7 million ounces of silver and 19,000 ounces of gold
produced during the third quarter

-- 4.8 million ounces of silver and 52,400 ounces of gold
produced during the first nine months of 2002

-- Cash costs of $2.83 per ounce of silver during the third
quarter -- a 17% decrease from last year`s third quarter

-- Projecting approximately 6.3 million ounces of silver and
65,000 ounces of gold production for 2002 at an average cash
cost of approximately $3.20 per ounce of silver
Rochester`s silver production of 1.7 million ounces represented a 16% increase over last year`s third quarter. Gold production for the same period increased 4% compared to last year. The production increases are primarily due to several process modifications that were implemented earlier this year.

Preparations for mining the adjacent Nevada Packard deposit are nearly complete and ore production is commencing this current quarter.

Looking ahead to 2003, the Company expects to move its existing crusher facilities to access additional ounces. Combined with mining from Nevada Packard, Coeur now expects mining at Rochester to continue into 2007, at which time residual leaching will commence.


Coeur Silver Valley -- Galena Mine (Idaho) - World`s 11th largest
silver mine

-- 1.2 million ounces of silver produced during the quarter,
representing a 12% increase from last year`s third quarter

-- 4.0 million ounces produced during the first nine months of
2002, a 26% increase from the first nine months of 2001

-- Cash costs of $4.54 per ounce during the third quarter - a 9%
decrease from last year`s third quarter. Cash costs for the
first nine months of 2002 were $4.20 per ounce compared to
$4.64 per ounce during the first nine months of 2001

-- Projecting 5.2 million ounces of silver production for 2002 at
an average cash cost of approximately $4.30 per ounce
Silver Valley remained on track during the third quarter to achieve record 2002 silver production of 5.2 million ounces. Production continues to increase and costs continue to decrease compared to prior periods due to the introduction of mechanized mining in select areas of the mine earlier this year.

During the third quarter, development work took place in the "upper country" of the mine to allow the Company to introduce lower cost long-hole bulk mining in select areas of the mine next year.

Hedging

Coeur does not currently have any of its silver production hedged. The Company currently has 30,000 ounces of gold sold forward over the next 15 months at an average price of $324 per ounce.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the country`s largest silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce. We use the term "resources" in this press release which the SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2002. You can review and obtain copies of that filing from the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.html.

This document contains numerous forward-looking statements relating to the Company`s silver and gold mining business. The United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Operating, exploration and financial data, and other statements in this document are based on information the company believes reasonable, but involve significant uncertainties as to future gold and silver prices, costs, ore grades, estimation of gold and silver reserves, mining and processing conditions, changes that could result from the Company`s future acquisition of new mining properties or businesses, the risks and hazards inherent in the mining business (including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, weather or geologically related conditions), regulatory and permitting matters, and risks inherent in the ownership and operation of, or investment in, mining properties or businesses in foreign countries. Actual results and timetables could vary significantly from the estimates presented. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.


Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation
Production Statistics

Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
2002 2001 2002 2001
--------- --------- --------- ---------
ROCHESTER MINE
Gold ozs 18,885 18,171 52,440 58,194
Silver ozs 1,717,151 1,483,382 4,770,361 4,473,629
Cash Costs per
oz./silver $ 2.83 $ 3.42 $ 3.11 $ 3.31
Full Costs per
oz./silver $ 3.44 $ 4.17 $ 3.87 $ 4.71

GALENA MINE
Silver ozs 1,188,262 1,060,191 4,045,253 3,201,098
Cash Costs per
oz./silver $ 4.54 $ 4.97 $ 4.20 $ 4.64
Full Costs per
oz./silver $ 5.34 $ 5.80 $ 4.91 $ 5.37

CERRO BAYO MINE
Gold ozs 15,081 N/A 21,000 N/A
Silver ozs 881,348 N/A 1,141,891 N/A
Cash Costs per
oz./silver $ 0.91 N/A $ 1.21 N/A
Full Costs per
oz./silver $ 1.95 N/A $ 3.25 N/A

PRIMARY SILVER MINES
Consolidated Cash
Cost per ounce
of silver $ 2.92 $ 4.07 $ 3.33 $ 3.87

PETORCA MINE
Gold ozs N/A 3,563 N/A 17,494
Silver ozs N/A 27,274 N/A 85,012
Cash Costs per
oz./gold N/A $ 306 N/A $ 340
Full Costs per
oz./gold N/A $ 331 N/A $ 360

PRIMARY GOLD MINES
Consolidated Cash
Cost per ounce
of gold N/A $ 306 N/A $ 340

CONSOLIDATED PRODUCTION
TOTALS
Gold ozs 33,966 21,734 73,440 75,688
Silver ozs 3,786,761 2,570,847 9,957,505 7,759,738


COEUR D`ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(Unaudited)

Sept. 30, Dec. 31,
2002 2001
---------- ----------
ASSETS (In Thousands)

CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents $ 7,217 $ 14,714
Short-term investments 199 3,437
Receivables and prepaid expenses 8,116 5,902
Inventories 42,425 46,286
---------- ----------
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 57,957 70,339

PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Property, plant and equipment 100,108 99,096
Less accumulated depreciation (69,448) (65,422)
---------- ----------
30,660 33,674

MINING PROPERTIES
Operational mining properties 122,947 117,555
Less accumulated depletion (84,198) (79,697)
---------- ----------
38,649 37,858
Developmental properties 46,912 46,685
---------- ----------
85,661 84,543

OTHER ASSETS
Restricted investments 11,203 11,219
Debt issuance costs, net of accumulated
amortization 1,721 3,262
Other 5,609 7,343
---------- ----------
18,533 21,824
---------- ----------
$ 192,811 $ 210,380
========== ==========


COEUR D`ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(Unaudited)

Sept. 30, Dec. 31,
2002 2001
--------- ---------
(In Thousands)
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Accounts payable $ 5,239 $ 3,721
Working Capital Facility 942 -
Accrued liabilities 6,167 7,561
Accrued interest payable 2,341 2,720
Accrued salaries and wages 4,488 4,542
6% convertible subordinated debentures due
2002 - 23,171
--------- ---------
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 19,177 41,715

LONG-TERM LIABILITIES
13 3/8% convertible senior subordinated
notes due December 2003 (Series I) 15,493 41,399
13 3/8% convertible senior subordinated
notes due December 2003 (Series II)
(net of discount of $1,482) 5,902 -
6 3/8% convertible subordinated debentures
due January 2004 65,457 66,270
7 1/4% convertible subordinated debentures
due October 2005 14,394 14,650
Reclamation and mine closure 14,025 14,462
Other long-term liabilities 5,795 5,096
--------- ---------
TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 121,066 141,877


SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY

Common Stock, par value $1.00 per share-
authorized 250,000,000 shares, issued
100,345,650 and 49,278,232 shares at
September 30, and December 31, 2001
(including 1,059,211 shares held in
treasury), respectively 100,346 49,278
Capital surplus 398,904 388,050
Accumulated deficit (433,090) (397,999)
Shares held in treasury (13,190) (13,190)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (402) 649
--------- ---------

52,568 26,788
--------- ---------
$ 192,811 $ 210,380
========= =========


COEUR D`ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2002 and 2001
(Unaudited)

3 MONTHS ENDED 9 MONTHS ENDED
SEPTEMBER 30, SEPTEMBER 30,
------------------ ------------------
2002 2001 2002 2001
-------- -------- -------- --------
(In thousands except for per share data)
REVENUES
Product sales $24,424 $16,224 $60,458 $52,443
Interest and other 2,110 842 5,201 2,696
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Revenues 26,534 17,066 65,659 55,139

COSTS AND EXPENSES
Production 24,648 16,028 58,924 52,121
Depreciation and depletion 2,719 2,678 8,130 8,044
Administrative and general 1,155 2,172 5,724 6,612
Exploration 786 1,941 2,397 5,215
Prefeasibility 518 809 2,300 1,930
Interest 7,583 3,466 17,431 10,848
Other 1,464 2,298 2,924 3,371
Loss (gain) on retirement
of debt - (39,245) 2,920 (48,217)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Costs and Expenses 38,873 (9,853) 100,750 39,924

INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME
TAXES (12,339) 26,919 (35,091) 15,215
Income tax benefit - 15 - 14
-------- -------- -------- --------

NET INCOME (LOSS) (12,339) 26,934 (35,091) 15,229
Unrealized holding gain
(loss) on securities (574) 367 (1,051) 1,078
-------- -------- -------- --------
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) $(12,914) $27,301 $(36,142) $16,307
======== ======== ======== ========
BASIC INCOME (LOSS) PER
SHARE DATA
Weighted average number
of shares of Common
Stock 87,742 43,639 69,354 41,047
======== ======== ======== ========
Net Income (Loss) per
share attributable
to Common Shareholders $(0.14) $0.62 $(0.51) $0.37
======== ======== ======== ========
DILUTED INCOME PER SHARE
DATA
Net Income per share $0.39 $0.33
======== ========


COEUR D`ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2002 and 2001
(Unaudited)

3 MONTHS ENDED 9 MONTHS ENDED
SEPTEMBER 30, SEPTEMBER 30,
------------------ ------------------
2002 2001 2002 2001
-------- -------- -------- --------
(In Thousands)
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING
ACTIVITIES
Net income (loss) $(12,339) $26,934 $(35,091) $15,229

Add (deduct) noncash items:
Depreciation and depletion 2,719 2,678 8,130 8,044
(Gain) loss on early
retirement of debt - (39,245) 2,920 (48,217)
Other 295 743 1,212 3,554
Non-cash interest expense 4,235 - 9,623 -
Unrealized gain on
written calls - (259) - (480)

Changes in Operating
Assets and Liabilities:
Receivables (1,758) (508) (2,193) 3,419
Inventories 4,914 186 6,288 2,826
Accounts payable and
accrued liabilities (338) (311) 1,416 (10,122)
-------- -------- -------- --------
NET CASH USED IN
OPERATING ACTIVITIES (2,273) (9,782) (7,695) (25,747)
CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING
ACTIVITIES
Purchases of short-term
investments (8,900) - (9,682) (1,255)
Proceeds from sales of
short-term investments 9,116 - 12,800 5,603
Proceeds from sale of
assets 259 - 265 14,733
Expenditures on mining
assets (3,200) (900) (7,931) (5,253)
Other (452) (5) (474) (567)
-------- -------- -------- --------
NET CASH (USED IN)
PROVIDED BY INVESTING
ACTIVITIES (3,177) (905) (5,022) 13,261

CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING
ACTIVITIES
Retirement of debt - (445) (9,427) (753)
Proceeds from issuance of
long-term debt, net of
issuance costs (192) (1,951) 13,858 (1,951)
Other 904 (162) 789 (225)
-------- -------- -------- --------
NET CASH PROVIDED BY
(USED IN) FINANCING
ACTIVITIES 712 (2,558) 5,220 (2,929)
-------- -------- -------- --------
DECREASE IN CASH AND CASH
EQUIVALENTS (4,738) (13,245) (7,497) (15,415)
Cash and cash equivalents
at beginning of period 11,955 33,057 14,714 35,227
-------- -------- -------- --------
Cash and cash equivalents
at end of period $7,217 $19,812 $7,217 $19,812
======== ======== ======== ========

SUPPLEMENTAL CASH FLOW DISCLOSURE

During the 3rd quarter of 2002, holders of $9.9 million of the
Series I 13 3/8% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due December
31, 2003 (the "Series I 13 3/8% Notes") voluntarily converted such
notes into approximately 7.3 million shares of Common Stock. In
addition, 0.8 million shares of common stock were issued as payment
for $1.4 million of interest expense on the Series I 13 3/8% Notes.
During the 3rd quarter of 2002 holders of $14.1 million of Series
II 13 3/8% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due December 31, 2003
(the "Series II 13 3/8% Notes") voluntarily converted such notes into
approximately 10.4 million shares of common stock. The Series I 13
3/8% Notes and the Series II 13 3/8% Notes are collectively referred
to hereinafter as the "13 3/8% Notes." In addition, 1.7 million shares
of common stock were issued as payment for $2.8 million of interest
expense on the Series II 13 3/8% Notes.
During the 2nd quarter of 2002 the Company repurchased $10.3
million, $0.8 million and $0.3 million principal amount of its
outstanding 6%, 6-3/8% and 7-1/4% Convertible Subordinated
Debentures, respectively, in exchange for 11.9 million shares of
common stock and recorded a loss of approximately $2.9 million. In
addition, holders of $10.3 million of the Series I 13-3/8% Notes
voluntarily converted into approximately 7.7 million shares of common
stock. In addition, 2.7 million shares of common stock were issued as
payment for $4.2 million of interest expense on the Series I 13 3/8%
Notes.
In May 2002, the Company issued $21.5 million principal amount of
Series II 13 3/8% Notes, for proceeds of approximately $13.9 million,
net of discount of $5.5 million and net of offering costs of
approximately $2.1 million.
During the 1st quarter of 2002 the Company repurchased $3.5
million principal amount of its outstanding 6% Convertible
Subordinated Debentures in exchange for approximately 3.4 million
shares of common stock. In addition, holders of $5.7 million principal
amount of Series I 13-3/8% Notes voluntarily converted their Notes
into 5.1 million shares of common stock.
During the 3rd quarter of 2001, the Company issued a total of
$43.2 million principal amount of Series I 13 3/8% Notes in connection
with an exchange offer extended to the holders of outstanding
convertible subordinated debentures.
During the 3rd quarter of 2001, $1.3 million of the Series I 13
3/8% Notes were converted to approximately 1.2 million shares of
common stock.
During the 2nd quarter of 2001 the Company repurchased $11.0
million principal amount of its outstanding 7-1/4% Convertible
Subordinated Debentures in exchange for 4,257,618 shares of common
stock.
During the 1st quarter of 2001, the Company repurchased $5.0
million principal amount of its outstanding 7-1/4% Convertible
Subordinated Debentures in exchange for 1,787,500 shares of common
stock.
CONTACT: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation
Mitchell J. Krebs, 208/769-8155

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com

Top Financial News

11/12 11:43
Newmont Mining Posts 3rd-Qtr Profit on Higher Prices

By Claudia Carpenter


Denver, Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world`s largest gold producer, said third-quarter profit rose 28 percent as it benefited from higher prices. The company`s shares plunged as acquisitions increased production costs.

Net income rose to $24 million, or 6 cents a share, from $18.8 million, or 10 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement. The drop in per-share profit reflects the issuance of stock as part of the acquisition in February of Australia`s Normandy Mining Ltd. and Canada`s Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. Revenue rose 73 percent to $728.3 million from $421.1 million.

Production costs rose 19 percent in North America and 5.8 percent in Australia as the company acquired some mines with lower- grade ore, limiting the benefits of a 14 percent rise in gold prices.

``One of the problems is the gold price is clearly lagging their cost of production,`` said John Bridges, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``The whole gold sector is facing mines which are getting older and costs are going to be rising.``

Newmont`s shares fell $1.94, or 7.6 percent, to $23.53 at 11:12 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest decline since July 23.

Gold futures traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged about $315 an ounce in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $276 in the same quarter of 2001.

Newmont, which faces higher costs with the decline of ore quality at older mines, said it expects earnings for the full year to be at the lower end of its forecast range of 40 to 50 cents a share.

Earnings `Disappointing`

The third-quarter earnings of 6 cents a share were ``a bit disappointing because we were looking for something in the teens, but Newmont does have tendency for bumper fourth-quarter results,`` Bridges said. The problems are ``escalating costs with mines getting old and grades going down, and it`s beginning to impact on profitability.``

Newmont said last month it would restate financial results from the previous three years by a total of $6.5 million to correct accounting for previously disclosed gold-sales contracts signed in July 1999.

``We decided to go back and re-audit the last three years,`` Newmont chief executive officer Wayne Murdy said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``We were advised yesterday that the auditors are signing off, so we`re done.``

Newmont said it reduced the amount of its forward sales of gold by 928,000 ounces to 5.8 million ounces during the third quarter. The company said it expected a further reduction of at least 279,000 ounces in the fourth quarter.

The company, which last month said it would boost exploration spending by 16 percent this year, said it will should be able to expand its gold reserves in 2003.

[ThaiGuru]

http://allafrica.com/stories/200211120069.html

4,000 Idle Mining Leases

(Johannesburg)

November 12, 2002

Posted to the web November 12, 2002

Kingsley Kubeyinje
Johannesburg

THE Nigerian government is threatening to withdraw about 4000 mining leases as holders are failing to use them.

Minister of Solid Minerals Development Dupe Adelaja said the move had become necessary to clear the subsector of lease squatters those who buy leases but cannot or will not make use of them.

"We are trying to sanitise the industry. We are trying to make sure that the right investors have the right to these licences and throw out speculators, so that the country can benefit from the exploitation of its mineral resources," she said.

The minister said she was disappointed by what she has seen at some gold mining sites in Jarua, in Kaduna state. She said the nonperforming companies there were holding back the government`s effort to develop the subsector of small lease mines. She said of the roughly 5000 mining leases issued by the government in the past five years, only 1000 were being used. She accused idle lease holders of having fraudulent intentions by using the leases to attract unsuspecting investors to trick them out of money.

Many of the lease holders, she said, had abandoned the sites after obtaining their mining or prospecting licences.

"No development can take place in a situation like this and it is detrimental to the people and government when people hold on to the acquisition rights to mining, thereby disturbing those who have a genuine interest in mining," she said.

Adelaja said a report tabled by a technical committee attached to her ministry was highly critical of the low level of activity at mineral deposit sites nationwide.

She said the report would be used as the basis for revoking leases.

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/mncg.nsf/Current/C2256A8C00448C6BC2256C6…

Roger Kebble arrested-attacks DRD

By: Bruce Whitfield


Posted: 2002/11/12 Tue 13:00 | © Moneyweb 1997-2002


Randgold Resources chairman Roger Kebble spent Monday night in a Johannesburg jail cell and was released on Tuesday, accusing DRD chief executive Mark Wellesley Wood of being behind his incarceration. In a statement, Kebble accuses Wellesley Wood of misusing the South African justice system to further his own ends. He also says in the statement that his cell phone records and private bank details have been the subject of a covert operation to discredit him.

What follows is the statement by Randgold chairman Roger Kebble.

I have today called for a high-level enquiry into the malicious prosecution brought against me at the instigation of Mr Mark Wellesley-Wood, chief executive of Durban Roodepoort Deep.

Randgold has written to the Commissioner of Police, the Minister of Safety and Security and the Minister of Intelligence drawing their attention to the abuse of the justice system involved in the prosecution. I have known for some time that Mr Wellesley-Wood has been engaged in a dirty tricks campaign against me designed to discredit me and to consolidate his position at DRD. It is a measure of the man that he has resorted to the shabby and desperate stratagem of trying to have the state prosecute me because of a boardroom dispute.

I have no doubt that very soon these charges will be dismissed and shown to be the mockery they are. Once this is done, I intend to seek massive damages from Mr Wellesley-Wood and his accomplices.

I have been aware for some time that a group of people close to Mr Wellesley-Wood have been conducting illegal covert activities including industrial and international espionage in a bid to bring pressure on me because of a business dispute.

Mr Wellesley-Wood snatched control of Durban Roodepoort Deep in 2001 through a devious and highly questionable strategy and since then has been waging a fierce campaign to consolidate his position and discredit those who oppose him. I, as the former head of DRD have been a particular target.

Mr Wellesley-Wood seems determined to do whatever he can to undermine me and the business interests of those associated with me. He attempted to harm the listing of Randgold Resources by putting out negative publicity that in fact did delay the listing. An attempt was also made to initiate a raid by SARS on me and the company premises causing a false report to be published in Finance Week. He also caused false and misleading information to be published in the South African and international media.

To some extent those in high business positions treat board room battles as unpleasant but not uncommon facts of life. What makes the situation in which I find myself unconscionable is the abuse of state institutions, the illegal abuse of banking and telephone records and, when it became clear to the perpetrators that their machinations were failing, the cynical manipulation of the justice system to change a commercial claim into a criminal charge.”

I am aware the Associated Intelligence Network, was retained by DRD to conduct a campaign against me. I have been made aware that my banking records have been drawn illegally as have my cell phone records. I am aware that journalists have been given misinformation designed to discredit me. My wife and I have received threatening telephone calls and have been followed.

When I became aware that attempts were being made to illegally obtain my bank statements, I advised my bankers of this fact and more stringent security measures were put in place. DRD’s attorney Tim Gordon-Grant of Bowman, Gilfillan, then wrote to DRD advising that because it had proved impossible to obtain bank records, the civil claim should be converted to a criminal charge in order to get the records. This is a flagrant abuse of the justice system that has resulted in a malicious prosecution being brought against me on trumped up charges of fraud and contravening the Companies Act.

The ‘substance’ of the charge is that I benefited from a contract awarded by DRD without informing the company of such an interest. In fact I never benefited directly or independently from the contract and this is a matter of record. We have made available all the information necessary to confirm this.

The first time I was informed of an investigation was last Thursday. At that time my attorney pointed out that DRD has on file a complete explanation of my role in the company and the rationale for my role. My attorney also stressed that I would fully co-operate with any investigation and make myself available when necessary. This information was ignored by design and on Monday I was arrested and held overnight in a police cell before being brought to court.

The timing of this latest move is not a coincidence. Randgold Resources is due to publish its quarterly results tomorrow and the timing is clearly designed to damage the reception of those results. In the circumstances Rangold has called for an immediate, high-level and intensive investigation into the circumstances surrounding this malicious prosecution. You may rest assured that I will take whatever legal action is necessary to clear my name.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/news.nsf/FNmg1F0?OpenFrameSet&Frame=Art…

Morgan Stanley cuts Anglo rating

Posted:11/12/2002 05:00:00 AM | © Mineweb 1997-2002

LONDON- Investment bank Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday it cut its rating for mining giant Anglo American to "underweight" from "equal weight", citing investment concerns in South Africa.

Reuters reports South Africa released a draft mining charter last month which says 15% of local mine assets must be in black hands within five years and 26% in 10 years.

"We believe earnings visibility remains unclear due to Mining Bill-related South African assets sales," analyst Paul Mctaggart said in a research note.

The note added Morgan Stanley had downgraded its base case 2003 and 2004 earnings estimates by 4% due to the inclusion of a 2% royalty and lower zinc prices.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/news.nsf/FNmg1F0?OpenFrameSet&Frame=Art…

Kinross, Echo Bay, TVX merger delayed

TORONTO - The planned stock-swap merger between Canadian mining companies Kinross Gold, Echo Bay Mines and TVX Gold will not meet the deadline imposed by the three companies to close the deal.

BNAmericas reports the agreement to create the "New Kinross" originally stipulated a completion date of November 30, but the three miners are now discussing extending the deadline, Edmonton-based Echo Bay said when reporting its Q3 results.

Closure has been delayed because the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has still not approved Echo Bay`s proxy statement, originally filed July 16 but resubmitted September 17.

Once approved, special shareholder meetings to consider the proposal must be held, something that will require at least a month`s notice to allow for printing and mailing.

The companies are now considering holding the special meetings late in the fourth quarter of 2002 or early 2003, Echo Bay said, although no dates can be officially set until SEC approval is actually obtained.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/news.nsf/FNmg1F0?OpenFrameSet&Frame=Art…

Macmin forms partnership with Malachite Resources

Posted:11/12/2002 03:00:00 AM | © Mineweb 1997-2002

SYDNEY - Macmin is forming a strategic partnership with Malachite Resources NL, a focused mineral explorer specialising in high grade silver and gold vein deposits in Eastern Australia, especially in the New England region of NSW.

A statement said Malachite aims to become a producer in a short timeframe by concentrating on its core projects and their cash flow potential. It has a strong board, experienced management and has BHP Billiton as a substantial shareholder and alliance partner. Through that alliance Malachite has exclusive access to BHP Billiton`s geochemical database for Eastern Australia.

Malachite`s area of operations in Northern New South Wales provides a synergy with Macmin`s operation in the Texas area of Queensland due to their geographic proximity and similar geological domains. Malachite proposes to re-open the Conrad silver mine, near Inverell, as soon as possible.

Macmin’s board also recognise that not only does this alliance provide Macmin with the chance to increase its exposure to further attractive silver resources in what it considers to be a very prospective region of eastern Australia, but it also gives Macmin indirect exposure to the benefits of Malachite`s strategic alliance with BHP Billiton.

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt, wie schon lange nicht mehr!

Und ihr schläft alle schon?

[silvo]

Duisenberg redet von 2% Wachstum, der US-Finanzminister von 3% und beschwert sich über die pessimistische Stimmung in der Wirtschaft. Ja leben die denn völlig hinterm Mond oder wollen die uns alle nur verarschen. Wachstum????????-Bei 40.000 Unternehmenspleiten in diesem Jahr und Steuerausfällen ohne Ende????? Meine Knete ist zu größten Teil in Gold-Minen angelegt und bleibt es auch mfg

[mickym [VIP]]

@Thai

Wir schlafen, nicht sondern schauen genuesslich zu!

Ist vielleicht auch besser, als im Juli, wo alle euphorisch waren, nun wird mit einer gewissen Skepsis betrachtet und leise gefreut.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Dienstag 12.11.2002, MEZ 20:33

Raus aus den Aktien

swissinfo 12. November 2002 15:49

Nur noch knapp jeder vierte Schweizer besitzt Aktien: Der Anteil der Aktienbesitzer in der Schweiz hat sich innert zweier Jahre von 31,9% auf 24,3% reduziert.

Abgesprungen sind rund 400`000 Anleger - vor allem jene mit tieferen Einkommen.

ZUM THEMA

Aktionäre werden kritischer
http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Die Schweiz zählt heute noch rund 1,3 Mio. Aktionäre gegenüber 1,7 Millionen im Jahr 2000. Dies zeigt eine Studie des Swiss Banking Institute der Universität Zürich.

"Börsenentwicklung und Aktionärszahl scheinen sich parallel zu entwickeln", sagte der Studienleiter Teodoro D. Cocca bei der Präsentation der Studie am Dienstag in Zürich. Der Aktionärsanteil liege aber immer noch doppelt so hoch wie 1995.

Rendite minus 10%

Als Ziel ihrer Aktien-Investitionen gaben die befragten Aktionäre wie vor zwei Jahren an erster Stelle den Aufbau eines Vermögens und zweitens die Vorsorge fürs Alter an. Eher ernüchternd ist daher der Befund, dass ihre durchschnittliche Rendite minus 10% beträgt.

Dass sie damit fast doppelt so gut abschneiden wie der SMI, mag überraschen. Allerdings ist laut Cocca davon auszugehen, dass diejenigen Aktionäre, die eine sehr schlechte Aktienperformance erzielten, ausgestiegen sind und damit bei der Berechnung nicht mehr berücksichtigt werden konnten.

Ende des "Volkskapitalismus"

War vor zwei Jahren von einem eigentlichen "Volkskapitalismus" die Rede, wo sich alle Einkommens- und Vermögensklassen an der Börse beteiligen, sieht es heute anders aus. "Die Reduktion des Aktienanteils gegenüber 2000 ist in den tieferen Einkommens-Kategorien weitaus stärker ausgefallen", heisst es.

In der tiefsten Einkommens-Kategorie mit weniger als 3000 Franken Monatslohn ist der Anteil der Aktienbesitzer von 15,5 auf 8,1% gefallen, in jener mit 10`000 bis 15`000 Franken Monatslohn nur von 51,0 auf 45,2%.

Wesentliche Veränderungen gab es bei der Zusammensetzung der Vermögensportfolios: Der Anteil "Börseler", die Aktien im Portfolio halten ist von 29,6 auf 21,8% gesunken. Der Anteil bei den Anlagefonds sank von 37,8 auf 32%. Derivate werden von 2,3% (2,9%) eingesetzt.

Gefragte Lebensversicherungen

Gemäss den Experten bedeutet dies, dass die Anleger nicht von Aktien zu Anlagefonds gewechselt haben, sondern aus der einen wie der anderen Anlagekategorie ausgestiegen sind. In der Vermögens-Zusammensetzung der Aktionäre hätten dafür beispielsweise die Lebensversicherungs-Anteile von 48,5 auf 61,3% zugelegt.

Nicht überraschend sind folgende Resultate: Das Aktienportfolio eines Privatanlegers setzt sich vorwiegend aus Schweizer Blue-Chips zusammen. Im Durchschnitt besitzt ein Anleger Titel von drei verschiedenen Unternehmen.

Amerikaner regieren gelassener auf Baisse

In der letzten Studie schnitt die Schweiz im internationalen Vergleich mit ihrem Aktienanteil von 31,9% auf Platz 3 ab, nach Australien (41%) und Schweden (35%) aber vor den USA (26,1%).

Laut dem Direktor des Swiss Banking Institute, Rudolf Volkart, liegen heuer keine vergleichbaren Studien vor. Bekannt sei allerdings, dass die Reduktion in den USA weniger drastisch ausgefallen sei.

Ein weiteres Resultat: Die Unterschiede zwischen den Landesteilen haben sich akzentuiert: Der Anteil der Aktionäre in der deutschen Schweiz liegt heute bei 25,3% (32,4%), in der französischen Schweiz 13,6% (23,1%) und in der italienischen Schweiz 12,8% (18,1%).

Die Studie des Swiss Banking Institute wurde letzten Mai und Juni zum zweiten Mal mittels einer Befragung bei 2000 Schweizerinnen und Schweizern im Alter von 18 bis 74 Jahren erhoben.

swissinfo und Agenturen

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Dienstag 12.11.2002, MEZ 20:53

Pentagon plant weltweite Überwachung des Internets

WASHINGTON - Im US-Verteidigungsministerium laufen Bemühungen, ein gigantisches System zur weltweiten Überwachung des Internets einzurichten. Dazu will das Pentagon nach Medienberichten Zugriff zu Datenbanken in der ganzen Welt erhalten.

Der Chef der «Informationsabteilung» im Pentagon, John Poindexter, erklärte in einem Interview der «Washington Post», Ziel sei es, die Spur von Terroristen überall hin verfolgen zu können.

Das Überwachungssystem würde dann systematisch Millionen von Datenpaketen durchschnüffeln und so Kreditkartenabrechnungen, verdächtige Reiseaktivitäten oder ungewöhnliche Arzneimittelverschreibungen wie etwa zur Behandlung von Milzbrand aufdecken.

«Wir können die Terroristen nur finden und ihnen zuvorkommen, wenn wir ihre Spur verfolgen», sagte der frühere nationale Sicherheitsberater. Er betonte, es würden noch Jahre vergehen, bis die Technologie entwickelt sei, um derart riesige Datenmengen zu filtern, so Poindexter weiter.

Kritiker merkten an, die US-Regierung werde es sicher schwer haben, für ein solches Überwachungsprogramm die Zustimmung befreundeter Staaten einzuholen.
Doch die Vorbereitungen laufen bereits auf Hochtouren. Poindexters Abteilung verfügt über einen Jahresetat von 200 Millionen Dollar, und erste Grossaufträge zur Entwicklung der Schnüffelsoftware wurden schon vergeben.
Nach Informationen der «Washington Post» berät Poindexter auch die Nationale Transportsicherheitsbehörde bei der Entwicklung eines Programms, um verdächtige Passagiere aufzuspüren. 122038 nov


SDA-ATS

***********************************************************

Ja dann, gute Nacht Freunde des Internet!

Gruss

TG

[tamara93]

12.11.2002 - Finanznews

Experten erwarten weiteren Anstieg des Goldpreises

Das Edelmetall profitiert von der unklaren Stimmung an den Aktienmärkten und von Kriegsängsten.




WIEN (red.). Die Ängste vor der Eskalation des Irakkonflikts sind neu entfacht - das Krisenmetall Gold dürfte davon profitieren, meinen die Experten. Laut Handelsblatt sehen sie Potential für weitere Aufschläge, obwohl das gelbe Metall in der letzten Zeit bereits stark gestiegen ist. Daher würde es sich für Investoren jetzt noch lohnen, einzusteigen - zum Beispiel mit Zertifikaten.

Falls es zu einem Krieg im Irak kommen sollte, könnte das gelbe Metall kurzfristig von derzeit 321 auf 400 Dollar je Feinunze hochschnellen. Diese Ausschläge dürften allerdings nur einige Wochen halten. Sobald sich abzeichne, daß der Krieg nur kurze Zeit dauern werde, sollten sich die extremen Ausschläge verringern. Die Analysten der Commerzbank Securities weisen darauf hin, daß sich Gold charttechnisch seit Januar in einem Aufwärtstrend befinde. Aktuell lägen ein wichtiger Widerstand bei 330 Dollar und eine Unterstützung bei 310 Dollar. Würde der Preis den genannten Widerstand brechen, sei Spielraum bis 350 Dollar gegeben, prognostizieren die technischen Analysten.

Ralf Kreikenbaum, Director bei Global Precious Metals von Commerzbank Internationals SA, sieht den Goldpreis auf Jahressicht bei 350 Dollar je Feinunze.

Darüber hinaus gibt es weitere Gründe für einen steigenden Goldpreis: Alexander Zumpfe von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein betont, daß viele Anleger an den Aktienmärkten Rückschläge erwarteten und daher Zuflucht zu Gold suchen dürften. Ferner kämen positive Impulse von den niedrigen Zinsen. So wirkten sich niedrige Dollarzinsen positiv auf das Edelmetall aus, weil die Preise für Termingeschäfte sänken und Absicherungsgeschäfte für Produzenten zunehmend unrentabler würden, was zu einer Reduzierung der Angebotsmenge führe. Gleichzeitig schüfen niedrige Zinsen zusätzliche Nachfrage, da eine Anlage in Festverzinslichen für Investoren interessanter werde, sagt Zumpfe, der Gold bereits in den nächsten Tagen bei 325 Dollar je Feinunze sieht.

© Die Presse | Wien

[tamara93]

3 0 0 0

[Stockfinder]

habe in den vergangenen Wochen Goldmünzen und kleinere Goldpositionen langfristig gekauft - sobald der Kurs über 330 zieht - werde ich auch die spekulative Chance eines Optionsscheins nutzen. Hat jemand bereits einen guten Call im Depot?

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe / Metalle: An den Märkten für Industriemetalle werden die Karten neu verteilt (12.11.2002)

An den Märkten für Industriemetalle herrscht Nervosität. Entgegen der saisonal vorgezeichneten Tendenz ist ein allgemeiner Aufschwung nach dem Ende der traditionell flauen Sommerphase ausgeblieben. Er kam erst mit der Erholung der Aktienmärkte zu Beginn der zweiten Oktober-Dekade. Und er ist zweifellos nicht von Kassamärkten ausgegangen, sondern die Musik hat ausschließlich an den von der Spekulation beherrschten Terminmärkten gespielt. Dieses Verhalten spiegelt die seit einiger Zeit zu beobachtende hohe Korrelation zwischen den Metall- und den Aktienmärkten wider, wobei die Aktien stets den Ton angegeben haben. Doch darüber könnten zunächst die tiefgreifenden strukturellen Veränderungen übersehen werden, die sich vor allem auf der Nachfrageseite vollziehen.

Die fundamentale Lage an den Metallmärkten steht derzeit vor allem im Zeichen teils nur gedämpfter, teils aber auch absolut rückläufiger Nachfrage. Grund dafür ist zweifellos die schlechte Lage der Weltkonjunktur. Sie lässt keine Besserung erkennen. Daher ist nennenswerte Nachfrage nach physischer Ware an den freien Märkten nur in Ausnahmefällen zu verzeichnen. Die Verarbeiter sind generell im Rahmen fester Lieferverträge mit den Produzenten gut, wenn nicht sogar reichlich eingedeckt. Eine Bestätigung dafür liefern die zum Teil sehr hohen Bestände in den von der Londoner Metallbörse (LME) lizensierten Lagerhäusern. Dorthin gelangen auf die eine oder andere Weise nicht benötigte Mengen.

Unterdessen mehren sich Nachrichten, die von Produktionssenkungen auf breiter Front sprechen. Vor allem fällt auf, dass die Metallgewinnung in China spürbar gedrosselt werden soll. Doch in allen diesen Fällen gilt, dass es sich zunächst einmal nur um Absichtserklärungen handelt. Ob Taten folgen, bleibt abzuwarten. Niemand gibt durch Produktionsdrosselungen freiwillig Marktanteile auf.

Begründete Sorgen bereitet bei Kupfer das unzureichende Angebot an Konzentraten. Es ist besonders im asiatischen Raum zu spüren, strahlt aber auch auf die westliche Hemisphäre aus. Vor allem China kann Konzentrate nicht mehr ohne erhebliche Preisaufschläge erlangen. Das bewegt chinesische Importeure zum Kauf von Raffinadekupfer an den westlichen Märkten. Diese Situation darf nicht aus den Augen verloren werden.

An Metallmärkten haben sich unter strategischen und somit langfristigen Aspekten gravierende strukturelle Veränderungen eingestellt. Sie sind am Beispiel Chinas, dessen Wirtschaft dauerhaft stark wächst, deutlich zu erkennen. Das Land benötigt zunehmende Mengen von Industriemetallen, von denen ein ansehnlicher Teil importiert werden muss. In Fällen, in denen China traditionell Netto-Exporteur war, nimmt der Ausfuhrüberschuss wegen steigenden Binnenbedarfs ab.

Wenig ist bisher unter diesem Aspekt über Russland diskutiert worden. Die Wirtschaft dort wächst ebenfalls nachhaltig. Folglich nimmt der Binnenbedarf des Landes an Metallen zu. Dies geht auch dort zum Teil zu Lasten des Exportüberschusses. Betroffen sind vor allem Aluminium und Kupfer.

Es spricht vieles dafür, dass der chinesische und der russische Metallbedarf herausragende Bedeutung erfahren, wenn sich der nächste aufstrebende Zyklus in der Weltkonjunktur und damit auch in der Nachfrage nach Industriemetallen einstellt. Dann könnten jene, die noch in eingefahrenen Bahnen denken, verwundert vor Märkten stehen, an denen die Karten völlig verteilt sind.

Terminmarktwelt
(8)

[ThaiGuru]

Kleine Mitteilung!

Die von mir mehrfach als "mein persönlicher Favorit" bezeichnete Goldmine "River Gold" Toronto, (RIV.TO), hat heute während des Handels, bei "noch!" sehr kleinen Umsätzen, das 52 Wochen Hoch, von 3.48 Kanada Dollar überschritten.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RIV.TO&d=t

Diese Goldmine, wird sehr wahrscheinlich, bald Dividende bezahlen können. Der *River Gold Mine* geht es selbst bei den jetzigen Goldpreisen schon wieder sehr gut. Bei weiter steigendem Goldpreis, dürfte die *RIV* sich weiter sehr posisitiv entwickeln. Die zuletzt von *RIV* veröffentlichten Zahlen sehen ebenfalls sehr vielversprechend aus.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[bluemoons]

Dienstag, 12. November 2002

Eindrücke von einer Investment-Konferenz

von unserem Korrespondenten Eric Fry in New York

Letzte Woche zeigte der Aktienmarkt wieder einmal, dass Vorfreude besser ist als das tatsächliche Eintreten eines Ereignisses. Zu Beginn der Woche stiegen die Kurse noch, weil die Investoren auf die Ergebnisse der US-Wahlen und den Zinsschritt der Fed warteten. Aber sobald beides eingetreten war, fielen die Kurse wieder.

Obwohl die Republikaner überraschend deutlich gewannen – was wegen der damit abgewendeten Blockade von Reformvorhaben positiv gesehen werden könnte – und die Fed die Leitzinsen überraschend stark gesenkt hatte, gingen die Indizes nur mit minimalen Kursgewinnen aus der Woche. Der Dow Jones konnte im Wochenverlauf per saldo gerade einmal 20 Punkte zulegen, der Nasdaq einen einzigen Punkt.

Der US-Dollar fiel unter die Parität zum Euro. Gold kletterte über die Marke von 320 Dollar.

"Das ist der Boden für den Goldpreis", so Doug Casey auf der Konferenz in New Orleans, über die schon mein Kollege Bill Bonner berichtet hat. "Der Goldpreis wird nicht durch die Decke gehen – er wird bis zum Mond steigen!"

Casey begründet seine Prognose mit dem seiner Ansicht nach notwendigen Verfall des Dollar-Kurses. Dass Casey Dollar-Pessimist ist, ist bekannt. Aber mittlerweile finden sich auch normalerweise unverbesserliche Dollar-Optimisten wie Sir John Templeton im Lager der Dollar-Pessimisten. Er sprach via Satellit auf der Konferenz (von seinem Haus auf den Bahamas), und bezeichnete den drohenden Absturz des Dollar als die größte Gefahr für die US-Wirtschaft.

"Das größte Risiko für die US-Wirtschaft liegt im Leistungsbilanz-Defizit", warnte Templeton. "Kein Land hat jemals zuvor so lange ein so hohes Defizit in der Leistungsbilanz gehabt. Wenn die Ausländer – die das finanzieren – nervös werden, könnten sie den Dollar aggressiv verkaufen, und das Ergebnis könnte katastrophal sein."

Neben Bill Bonner und Addison Wiggins war auch ich auf der Konferenz in New Orleans. Diese Konferenz dauerte 4 Tage, und es gab jede Menge Vorträge. Aber egal, wer der Sprecher war – ein Thema kam immer wieder auf: Der Dollar hat Probleme.

Am ersten Morgen der Konferenz sprach Bill Bonner, der über die "positive Seite" des Dollar-Verfalls sprach: Der Goldpreis wird steigen! Bill sagte seinen Zuhörern, dass sie "immer die positive Seite sehen sollten ... wie er selbst."

Dann wurde er vorsichtig: "Ich denke, dass die USA in den nächsten 10 Jahren wahrscheinlich in die Fußstapfen von Japan treten werden. Die US-Volkswirtschaft wird es schwer haben, deutlich wachsen zu können, und die Aktienmärkte werden weiter absacken. Aber lassen Sie mich auch die positiven Seiten dieser Entwicklung aufzeigen. Eine Rezession hat auch Vorteile. Während der Weltwirtschaftskrise konnte man in den besten Restaurants in New York ohne Reservierung einen Tisch bekommen."

Bill meint, dass der Dollar in der kommenden Dekade dramatisch an Wert verlieren wird. Das Positive daran: "Ein fallender Dollar ist großartig für den Goldpreis!"
investorverlag

[bluemoons]

Experten erwarten weiteren Goldpreisanstieg


Von Kathrin Quandt, Handelsblatt


Die Ängste, dass die Amerikaner zu Beginn des nächsten Jahres im Irak einmarschieren werden, geben dem Goldpreis Auftrieb. Auch Sorgen um Verluste an den Aktienmärkten sowie niedrige Zinsen ziehen die Notierung nach oben. Die Banken bieten mittlerweile eine große Auswahl an Möglichkeiten, um auf diesen Trend zu setzen.





FRANKFURT/M. Ob der irakische Präsident Saddam Hussein die Resolution der Vereinten Nationen akzeptiert, ist noch unklar. Klar ist aber: Akzeptiert er sie nicht, dann gibt es Krieg – wahrscheinlich schon kurz nach Jahresanfang. Die Ängste vor der Eskalation des Irakkonflikts sind neu entfacht – das Krisenmetall Gold dürfte davon profitieren, meinen die Experten. Sie sehen Potenzial für weitere Aufschläge, obwohl das gelbe Metall in der letzten Zeit bereits stark gestiegen ist. Folglich würde es sich für Investoren jetzt noch lohnen, einzusteigen – zum Beispiel mit Zertifikaten.

So betont etwa Dirk G. Schernikau von Spütz Börsenservice zwar, Gold liege bereits im oberen Bereich der Range, in der er sich in den letzten fünf Jahren befunden habe, wobei 250 Dollar je Feinunze das untere und 330 Dollar den oberen Rand darstellten; das gestrige Londoner Nachmittagsfixing lag bei 320,70 Dollar je Feinunze. Doch als Krisenmetall sei Gold derzeit gefragt, sagt Schernikau.

Falls es zu einem Krieg im Irak kommen sollte, könnte das gelbe Metall kurzfristig bis auf 400 Dollar je Feinunze hochschnellen. Diese Ausschläge dürften allerdings nur einige Wochen halten. Sobald sich abzeichne, dass der Krieg nur kurze Zeit dauern werde, sollten sich die extremen Ausschläge verringern. Schernikau verweist zudem auf die Charttechnik: Einiges spreche aus dieser Sicht für einen Anstieg auf 340 Dollar je Feinunze, den Höhepunkt, den der Kurs im Jahr 1999 erzielte. Und die Analysten der Commerzbank Securities weisen darauf hin, dass sich Gold charttechnisch seit Januar in einem Aufwärtstrend befinde. Aktuell lägen ein wichtiger Widerstand bei 330 Dollar und eine Unterstützung bei 310 Dollar. Würde der Preis den genannten Widerstand brechen, sei Spielraum bis 350 Dollar gegeben, prognostizieren die technischen Analysten. Ralf Kreikenbaum, Director bei Global Precious Metals von Commerzbank Internationals SA, sieht den Goldpreis auf Jahressicht bei 350 Dollar je Feinunze.

Darüber hinaus gibt es weitere Gründe für einen steigenden Goldpreis: Alexander Zumpfe von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein betont, dass viele Anleger an den Aktienmärkten Rückschläge erwarteten und daher Zuflucht zu Gold suchen dürften. Ferner kämen positive Impulse von den niedrigen Zinsen. So wirkten sich niedrige Dollarzinsen positiv auf das Edelmetall aus, weil die Preise für Termingeschäfte sänken und Absicherungsgeschäfte für Produzenten zunehmend unrentabler würden, was zu einer Reduzierung der Angebotsmenge führe. Gleichzeitig schüfen niedrige Zinsen zusätzliche Nachfrage, da eine Anlage in Festverzinslichen für Investoren interessanter werde, sagt Zumpfe, der Gold bereits in den nächsten Tagen bei 325 Dollar je Feinunze sieht.

Sein Kollege Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach ergänzt, bei Gold mache sich weiterhin das bereits im September 1999 abgeschlossene Zentralbankabkommen positiv bemerkbar. Darin haben sich europäische Notenbanken verpflichtet, heimliche Goldverkäufe zu unterlassen. Damit soll Vertrauen geschaffen werden, denn die Furcht vor diesen Verkäufen hatte den Markt lange Zeit unter Druck gehalten. Dazu komme, so Wrzesniok-Roßbach, dass erstmals seit 1980 die Investoren wieder Gold nachfragten. Mittlerweile kauften viele Anleger wieder zu, um ihr Portfolio zu diversifizieren.

Fazit: Die Aussichten sind gut für einen weiteren Anstieg des Goldpreises.

Wer nur mittelfristig mit Zuwächsen rechnet, für den lohnen sich Zertifikate mit fester Laufzeit, sonst sind Open-end-Zertifikate sinnvoll. Wichtig zu wissen: Auch bei so genannten Open-end-Zertifikaten haben die Emittenten ab einer gewissen Zeit das Recht, die Papiere zu kündigen.

Außer auf einen niedrigen Spread (Differenz zwischen Kauf- und Verkaufskurs) sollten Anleger darauf achten, dass sie bei den Papieren von ABN Amro und der ING BHF Bank ein Zertifikat auf den Amex-Goldaktienindex bzw. auf einen Basket aus Goldminenaktien kaufen. Zwar haben sowohl der Index als auch einzelne Aktien in der Vergangenheit sich tendenziell ähnlich wie der Goldpreis entwickelt. Aber unternehmensspezifische Faktoren können diesen Einfluss verwässern. Wer sich nicht über einzelne Unternehmen informieren will, sollte Papiere auf den Goldpreis kaufen.


HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 12. November 2002, 08:49 Uhr

[ThaiGuru]

@bluemoons

Zu Posting #3002

Das ist sehr gut für den Silberpreis!

Da Silber hauptsächlich, als Beiprodukt bei der Förderung von Industriemetallen, wie z.Bsp. Kupfer, Zink, Blei, etc. anfällt, dürfte die Produktion von Silber, durch die Wirtschaftskriese bedingt, bald merklich zurückgehen, und dadurch die Nachfrage nach physischem Silber noch weniger befriedigt werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

November 12 - Gold $324.10, up $3.40 - Silver $4.59 up 2 cents

Gold Leaving $320 In The Dust

My kind of day!!! Gold traded to the positive side in eerie, quiet fashion all morning and then surged to the upside VERY late in the session. It did so while the dollar was steady, the stock market was sharply higher, and oil was quiet. As you have heard from me for years, that is the gold action I prefer. The big moves in gold come from gold itself and not other fundamental factors. Part of that is so because of the cabal rigging. The only thing that really counts these days for the price of gold is the defeat of The Gold Cartel.

Naturally I am prejudiced, but the GATA/Morgan/gold news that is circulating all over is devastating to The Gold Cartel and the other big shorts.

Financial market newsletter writers Jim Bianco/Richard Russell and columnists Peter Brimelow/Thom Calandra have all given GATA and The Café some good visibility lately. That is on top of the CNBC onslaught of the JP Morgan Chase/gold loss story that permeated the airways last Thursday. The aggregate importance of this kind of coverage should not be underestimated. As much as anything, The Gold Cartel cannot stand the spotlight. They cannot stand that the truth be known about their gold activities. Without a doubt, big investor types are looking into what the fuss is all about. After Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, etc, and the bullion bank involvement with those firms, the Wall Street heavy hitters can ill afford not to do their homework regarding Morgan and gold. One need only do a "Google search" to get the GATA/Morgan story. As the truth is circulated throughout the investment world, Morgan and fellow cabal members will be financially punished for their misdeeds.

There is no doubt in my mind that GATA’s four years of hard work is finally paying off for all of us. This morning, the Morgan Stanley silver traders were looking into the Midas rant on the 21% increase in the BIS gold derivatives, while the hedgers reduced their positions by 300 tonnes during the same period (Jan 1 – June 30 of this year). They realize that a derivatives increase of that magnitude does not pass the smell test. Something is just not right. Clearly, paper has been used to hold down the price of gold. Word is quietly spreading that the paper goons do not have the gold to deliver into their commitments. As that word continues to spread, some shorts will panic and cover, while other big buyers will jump all over this MONSTER WINNING trade that is sure to be.

I have stressed two items in recent commentary:

*The gold fundamentals are better than they have been in decades.
*The gold trading pattern has changed recently.

Today’s gold action confirmed the change in the pattern. Gold is only $3 from making multi-year highs on a closing basis. Meanwhile, the US public shows little interest in gold/gold shares as an investment and none of the Wall Street bullion houses are bullish. The set-up could not be more friendly for a gold price explosion.

Gold should soon complete a massive base that can propel its price hundreds of dollars higher:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

That takes me right to Newmont, which missed its numbers badly today, coming in with earnings per share of six cents instead of 16 cents (see below). Once again the excuse given was lower production numbers and derivative losses. What is going to happen to the big hedgers when gold goes $424 bid instead of $324 bid? What a nightmare the big hedger gold world is going to be!

Newmont reduced its hedge book by 928,000 ounces, but still has 5.8 million ounces to reckon with. Newmont was renowned for being a non-hedger, but that is just not the case anymore. As a result, they badly disappointed Wall Street. Newmont took over Normandy of Australia a year ago. Why have they not cleaned up their hedge book like others (Durban Deep for example)? The general opinion at the New Orleans Conference from our crowd is that the Newmont/Normandy hedge book is a toxic one and that the bullion banks won’t let them out.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Late edition from Jim Sinclair:

Get Ready - Get Set Gold

Technical Review and Heads Up


Gold: The knee "JERK" reaction was taking place for sure today. As gold hung around the $322 area all the gold shares were getting ready for their pummeling normally received in the low $320s. Then all of a sudden here we go to a hair`s breathe under $325. The poor shares did not know what to do. Shorts in RGLD were in the midst of a decline gloating over their hoped for key reversal day. Other gold were setting up to look technically poor at the close. Sorry, NASDAQ raiders. This time it is not going to happen, IMO.

Instead you are going get nailed and buy back at new highs, new recover highs and above necklines of reverse head and shoulder formation. Gold only needs, IMO, A close of $326.25 and we will see price almost immediately in the $338 -- $343 range. Get Ready. You are set. Soon it will be Go for GO-LD out of the Handle of the Three Year Tea Cup.

Goldcorp: There is one line of primary interest. That is the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders on GG. This stock has, IMO, a $17- $18 written on it. Keep a close eye on that. Therefore we will not clutter the chart with any notations.

US Dollar: It is quite usual for a rally attempt off an old low. Yesterday the US dollar hit that point and today we had thre normal rally off the old low. Was is not usual is for an item to get clouted in the mouth on the day of such a rally. That is what happened today in the US Dollar. Out of the box looking like Mighty Joe Young and then into the hole like Mr. Milktoast. The dollar may well be Toast. Some rally tendency but really no where to go but lower.

Conclusion:

Wager you we are looking back at $330 by next Monday close.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Mittwoch 13.11.2002, MEZ 00:35

12. November 2002 23:52

Experten sehen Ölpreis bei Krieg gegen Irak bis 80 Dollar

WASHINGTON - Der Preis für Rohöl könnte im Falle eine Irak-Krieges im ersten Quartal 2003 nach Einschätzung von Energie-Experten im schlimmsten Fall auf 80 Dollar emporschnellen und die gesamt Weltwirtschaft abwürgen.

Zu diesem Schluss kamen Experten des Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington bei der Diskussion über die Folgen eines Angriffs der USA auf Irak. Sie gingen dabei davon aus, dass Irak beim Rückzug vor US-Truppen seine Öleinrichtungen zerstören, Massenvernichtungswaffen einsetzen und wichtige Ölanlagen in den benachbarten Staaten Saudi-Arabien und Kuwait durch Raketen zerstören würde.

«Man braucht einen Ölpreis von 40 Dollar um die Weltwirtschaft zum Stillstand zu bringen», sagte Adam Sieminski, Ölstratege bei der Deutschen Bank. Bei einem Preis von 80 Dollar würden wir in ein Loch fallen, fügte er hinzu.

Nach dem von den Experten erstellten Szenario würde das Barrel (knapp 159 Liter) Rohöl im ersten Quartal 2003 rund 80 Dollar kosten und sich nur langsam auf 60 Dollar in zweiten und jeweils 50 Dollar im dritten und vierten Quartal des nächsten Jahres verbilligen.

Für die Konsumenten würde eine derartige Preisentwicklung eine enorme Verteuerung von Kraftstoffen mit sich bringen. Immerhin macht der Rohölpreis etwa 44 Prozent des Benzinpreises aus. Derzeit bewegt sich der Ölpreis um 24 Dollar. 122350 nov


SDA-ATS

[Big-Apple]

25 reasons why gold will rise:
The vicious circle behind the US Dollar decline

by Jim Willie
November 12, 2002

Introduction:

After observing the ideas of Jim Willie over the last six months on Silicon Investor, I have come to the conclusion that the global precious metals community should hear what he has to say. Upon reading his debut report, I am sure that you will agree with me. --4FigureAU

The last 22 years has seen a remarkable bull market in stocks, followed by a bust that has been painfully unfolding since early in the year 2000. Now yet another bull market is well underway, as capital has been induced to seek safety in bonds. This much is undisputed. However, much controversy has emerged regarding the management of the economy, the role and value of the USDollar, the use of the US Treasury Bond as world store of value, monetary policy dictated by the Federal Reserve, international relations with major trade partners, and the former standard of money known as gold.

I do not intend to engage in any debate of controversial policy or structure, all of which are deeply embroiled in politics. Further suspicion has been directed at the press & media, whose affiliation with advertisers might raise questions about objectivity in reporting on a host of issues. Nor do I intend to discuss the cabal of economists whose community is best described as replete with ineptitude, bereft policy, heretical assumptions, flawed analysis, distorted reporting, cliquish political influence, and vacant understanding of history. Their lack of guidance and stewardship might have led this nation and other industrialized nations into making enormous errors, while allowing their citizens to suffer tragic losses due to speculation amidst ignorance and extensive illiteracy concerning all things financial. Instead, 25 powerful forces are cited which serve to strengthen the value, if not the role, of gold in the near future.

Grand illusions have been cultivated in recent years regarding creation of wealth, employing the means of debt accumulation. Credit has somehow been confused with wealth, while legal tender has been confused with money. An extreme irony appears to me. The US Treasury stood for almost two centuries as an institution where a treasure of gold was secured. Now the US Treasury exists as a factory to spin debt issuance into the fabric of guaranteed securities. The dollar and its government securities work hand in hand since foreigners use one as the flipside of the other. The TBond is traded as a US currency offering a return on investment. Debt creation, banking foundations, government spending, and vast systems of inter-dependences are running amok. A clearly identified volatility in the world economy and financial markets has been the reward from the consensus departures from a gold-backed currency. Many wonder if we have developed conditions whereby a "revenge of gold" will come to pass.

Strong countervailing forces govern gold with respect to financial securities and economic environments, hotly debated now. I cite certain inter-relationships at work in determining the price of gold, after observing the financial world for almost 30 years as both a student and a professional in the corporate world. Gold competes with the US Dollar as a worldwide store of value. Within the United States, a declining currency indicates rising inflation of finished goods, commodities, and possibly services available to our economy. Gold also competes with the US Treasury securities (bonds, notes, bills) as a worldwide store of value, attracting investors for its yield. Inflationary economic environments accompany a rising gold price. Despite many common beliefs, deflationary environments also accompany a rising gold price, as debts and indebted currencies are put at risk of writedowns or default. A review of American history in the 1930 decade bears this out. Against such a backdrop, I offer a cornucopia of reasons why gold will rise in value. Forces generate movement, setting into motion a dangerous and risk-filled sequence of events. The USDollar has never experienced correction in an environment filled with such wide-reaching imbalances.

As gold rises in value, the predominant engine will be decline of the USDollar in a correction process. Twenty years have produced historically unprecedented imbalances within the US economy and the structural dynamics across the world economy. Rubin`s heralded but destructive Strong Dollar policy has heaped havoc equally upon the world of finance and major economies, attracting capital to and repelling manufacturing capacity from the United States, prying deep dislocations. Greenspan`s knighted but injudicious Easy Money policy produced an asset bubble, which worked synergistically with the rising dollar. Now the bubble`s unrelenting collapse will tether our currency toward an uncertain fate. Regardless of how an ultra-strong valuation was engineered, the USDollar`s corrective adjustment will not occur quickly or easily, but instead will aggravate markets and economies, exposing hazards, raising the prospect of chaos. I believe that as US political and financial leaders lose control, or feign benign neglect, the USDollar will gradually become more and more unstable. Eventually, a Vicious Circle will be encountered whereby a declining dollar will result in an increasing exodus of foreign investment from our capital markets. The consequent stress to the bear market in stocks will undercut the economic balance, rendering an upcoming recession as inevitable. The typical gateways to recession have been the automobile and housing sectors. Initially stock bust beneficiaries, these key sectors are now exhibiting a critical level of strain. The exodus of foreign capital could easily lead to rising longterm interest rates, exacerbating a recession.

Unlike Japan, the United States cannot experience an interest rate convergent to zero. Our dependence on foreign capital to finance both the monstrous federal debt and equally gaping current account deficit (trade gap) distinguishes us from our fellow busted bubble allies in Japan. Our outsized debts also set us apart from the Japanese nation of savers. Corporate failures, including a few spectacles, have hurt debt issuances and led to defaults. Furthermore, job insecurity and consumptive exhaustion have begun to fracture the foundation of other debt obligations, with cracks forming from mortgage to credit card defaults. These combined effects require a risk premium to be installed within the credit market, both public and private. The slowing economy and increasing pursuit of safety is racheting interest rates toward zero. Hence, a volatile bottom will be witnessed for interest rates as haven-seeking capital collides with debt risk, underscoring the Treasury credit market vulnerability to a currency decline.

As the USDollar decline feeds upon itself, the investment climate within the United States is very likely to worsen, resulting in more federal fiscal stimulus and support (inflation), more monetary expansion (inflation), rising import prices (inflation), further stock declines (deflation), more debt default (deflation), and a potentially deepening recession (deflation), leading to further writedown of our debt-backed currency. The cycle then repeats itself, with our currency acting as the control lever for the cycle. A climax chapter could likely follow any disruption to the Treasury Bond market. I believe a US Dollar decline will erupt into a crisis when the power of this Vicious Circle unleashes its fury. Few appear to expect it. Moreover, fewer seem to understand how insensitive and unresponsive our trade imbalance is to devaluation in the currency. Many internal components of American-made products come from Asia. The latent risk to the world financial system is for the Vicious Circle to threaten the standard bearer USDollar itself.

Those who profess opinions and arguments in favor of an orderly and stable adjustment to the extreme imbalances in the currency markets, credit markets, trade accounts, and stock markets are in for a rude awakening. I believe a crisis will unfold, the likes of which we have never seen before. Some like Jim Puplava contend that a Perfect Storm will develop. I can appreciate their perspective and justification. Our stock bubble was orders of magnitude larger than the 1930`s. Our current levels of debt are also orders higher. Our dependence upon foreign capital is staggering, rendering us vulnerable. Our import trade for both product components and finished goods is also dangerously high. World banks have structured reserves upon our debt at their peril. It is my considered opinion that the dollar adjustment cannot avoid becoming out of control. Most governmental response to a deteriorating situation could actually worsen any crisis. The natural course of a correction among multiple financial markets might have occurred in 1998. But since we demand, expect, and celebrate an interventionist policy, whose involvement hopes to pre-empt natural cleansing processes, our markets will probably experience far worse corrections in the near future. The historical role for gold has been to serve as the ultimate arbiter and controlling mechanism for both currency debasement and trade imbalance. Since gold has been formally removed from this role, a giant coil might be poised to spring gold into the picture. If a financial storm ensues, gold will certainly operate as its barometer. Thus GOLD will emerge to front and center stage, much like an undesired festering boil!

Against this entire backdrop, many cold forces are at work and transformations in progress. I do not insist on a gold standard for currencies. But I can see a sequence of frightening events unfold which might compel a partial gold-backing in order to secure stability to the world currency system. Concurrent with such events we are very likely to see a spectacular resurrection of gold. The outline below attempts to cover a long list comprehensively, but I surely have overlooked some valid forces. It begins with bonds, then federal/ fiscal policy, politics, banking, mining, trade, commodities including currencies, economic cycles, with a final point reflecting on history.


BONDS:

1. Real rate of interest has been near zero since Oct 2001

- Real rate of interest defined to be 3-month TBill yield minus CPI rate
- Extreme economic weakness requires longer period of nil real rates
- Bond disincentive leads creditors toward other asset groups
- No real return on investment, with shorterm bond yield nullified by inflation
- Gibson`s Paradox describes the relationship between rising gold and shrinking real rates
- Credit market represents a very large capital pool, 5x larger than stock market
- Strong historical precedent for rise in gold in such an environment, a trend change

2. Rise in foreign holdings of US assets increases our vulnerability to foreign abandonment

- Foreigners own 45% of US TBonds, 25% of US Corp Bonds, 12% of US Stocks
- Foreigners also own substantial holdings of coastal real estate
- Foreign dependence upon capital will probably result in higher prevailing interest rates
- Gradually US leaders are losing control of our own economy (interest rate, value of dollar)
- The world has begun diversification away from American financial instruments
- US vulnerability to financial attack has escalated, with pressure point being the USDollar


FEDERAL/ FISCAL:

3. Money supply increased over 40% since Jan 2001, close to 100% rise since 1991

- Monetary inflation plants seeds of eventual price inflation
- USDdollar printing might represent a govt-sanctioned legalized counterfeit operation
- Central Banks worldwide will fight deflation with further monetary expansion
- Monumental imbalances and instability have become endemic in the last two decades
- Gresham`s Law: bad money displaces good money
- Gold`s role is to control monetary responsibility and trade imbalances, restore stability

4. Return to federal deficits from recession and wartime economy, with more security spending

- Increased supply of bonds leads to reluctance to purchase new issuances
- Increased supply of bonds might soon be monetized if bond demand evaporates
- Federal bailouts of large failed corporations might substantially increase deficits
- Deficit spending and stimulus will continue to undermine the USDollar


POLITICS:

5. Rising world tension, desire for safer safe haven, the geopolitical threat to peace

- Threats of terrorism (conventional, biological, chemical, nuclear)
- Middle East ebb & flow of tensions shapes a constant landscape
- Retaliation by Al Qaeda, HezBollah, and Iraqis, who might have begun coordinated action
- Potential spread of violence to Asia and Europe, e.g. Russia, Bali in Indonesia

6. Glass-Steagal Law repeal now heightens risk of financial cluster failure

- Risks now are shared across banking, brokerage, and insurance sectors
- Bank sector is at risk from debts, recession, low rates, and derivative losses
- Brokerage sector is at risk from reduced trading, IPO issuance, and shareholder lawsuit
- Insurance sector is at risk from WTC attack, droughts, and floods
- Insurance sector has a baseline of risk from asbestos, accident, death awards
- The merger mania of the 1990`s plus the Glass-Steagal Law repeal exposes systemic risk

7. World perception of American institutionalized dishonesty

- Scandals, broker conflict of interest, accounting fraud, exaggerated earnings
- Prosecutions and corporate failures highlight the broadly reported fraud
- Participating collusion by the press/media might have roots in advertising revenues
- Consequent resentment of American hegemony, wide military presence, lost trust


BANKING:

8. Likelihood of systemic banking shock waves from debt collapse and derivative chain reaction

- Debt failure, loan loss reserves, low rates all hurt profits, impairing capitalization requirements
- Every single financial niche is under great stress from poor profitability, incurred losses
- Corporate bond spread over Treasury yield indicates withheld availability of capital
- Extreme stress to bank sector from derivatives linked to yield spreads
- Derivative pyramid exists, dangerously exposing entire financial system to meltdown risk
- JPMorgan has become the ultimate source of offloaded risk, both in banking and insurance
- JPMorgan may have abused gold leasing in order to sustain gradually failing derivatives

9. Reduction of USDollar usage as both store of value, banking reserve asset

- USDollar is backed by debt, thus represents a denominated debt instrument
- Its collateral (gold) is in process of depletion, perhaps 50% depleted in US Treasury
- China has announced intention to balance 1/3 of reserves across US TBond, EuroBond, Gold
- Foreign banks use the USDollar as basis for fractional banking reserves
- Faulty US TBond deposit base places entire foreign banking systems at risk
- Full circle possibly coming toward currency backed by debt-free gold (Gold Cover Clause)

10. Sharp increase of savings across Asia in the form of gold

- Japanese savings guarantees are on again, off again, leaving citizens uncertain
- China recently opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange for private purchases
- India plans to open its own Gold Exchange, facilitating purchases
- Arabs and Russians are increasing their gold purchases
- Worldwide trend of private investors now includes USA, Canada, Australia, Germany

11. Islamic world is planning gold-centric international commerce, distancing from USDollar

- Iran has announced pending demands for crude oil payment in Euro currency
- Redirected flow of petrodollars has been seen into Europe since spring 2002
- Planned Dinar currency and coin is gaining ground for pan-Islamic commerce settlements
- Dinar might eventually become gold-convertible, offering strong competition to USDollar
- Obstacles must be overcome whereby IMF rules forbid settlement outside dollar standard
- A Chinese Yuan gold-convertible currency would strongly complement the Dinar
- The stage is being set for potential Islamic financial warfare directed at US dollar
- If conflict escalates into military war, crude oil payments may be demanded in gold

12. Bank for International Settlements has targeted the US dollar for a corrective decline

- BIS embodies the central bank for central banks, subject to no laws or oversight
- BIS power originates from pre-WWI Swiss central bankers who resent USDollar debauchery
- Swiss desire to install Euro (or SWFranc) as new gold-backed currency
- They hold more gold than several central banks combined
- We have now officially seen an end to yen carry trade, and to gold carry trade
- Their previous objective in restoring stability was the destruction of the Soviet Union
- They now regard USDollar profligacy as a threat to world economic stability


MINING:

13. Reversal of miner hedges, end of gold leasing, reducing supply

- 1000 ton annual supply shortfall over current demand
- Eventual central bank discontinued selling, as per Washington Agreement
- Gradual lost control by Gold Cartel (central banks, bullion banks, hedged miners)
- End of gold leasing program, as counter-party risks rise, debt downgrades continue
- Unwinding of largest naked short position in history (3 years supply)
- End of trashing of South African Rand (world`s leading gold supplier)
- As large miners acquire smaller firms, they must unwind purchased hedge books

14. Dismantled mining supply apparatus, from systemic price below production

- A reported equilibrium price of around #600 gold price
- At least 2 years required to re-activate operations and produce gold in a shutdown mine
- Perhaps 4-5 years to begin production of a new mine from the start
- After decades of neglect, lowest CPI-adjusted prices for commodities since 1930

15. Paradox: High gold price leads to higher demand, and high price leads to lower supply

- Typical supply & demand relationship with price absolutely does not apply
- However, gold jewelry demand does conform to obey the standard demand curve
- Investment demand drops during price declines, even nonexistent at lowest prices
- As price rises, a worldwide fever develops and gains momentum, lifting demand
- Supply was enormous at gold`s lowest prices with carry trade and miner hedge sales
- As price rises, hedge sale cash flow diverts capital to cover forward contracts
- Legitimate operations suffer from reduction in cash reserves, inhibiting production
- Ironically, gold mining firms have become buyers on the world markets !!!


WORLD TRADE:

16. Trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept

- Tension leads to reduced trade, retaliation, cutbacks in dollar exchange
- Distrust in USA could result in reduced commerce with the United States
- Rising protection trends worsen economic slowdowns worldwide, causing inefficiencies
- Unintended effects often come in the form of higher domestic prices
- Such tariffs and increased taxation repeat the protectionist path taken in 1930

17. US Dollar correction to relieve the trade imbalance could result in a currency crisis

- US national trade debt has now surpassed 5% of US GDP
- Strong historical precedent for US dollar decline in an attempt to correct imbalances
- Symptom of chronic overvalued dollar is lost competitive position for export trade
- Another symptom is excessive Asian economy dependence upon US markets
- Pervasive foreign imported components renders correction to lower dollar difficult
- 1990 decade saw huge benefits from cheap imports, now to reverse painfully
- US Mfg base has either shifted to Asia, or set up assembly plants to Mexico (NAFTA)


CURRENCY & COMMODITIES:

18. Accelerating worldwide currency turbulence

- Japan, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan, PacRim, Turkey
- Unbacked indebted currencies acting as hot money could create isolated airpockets
- Standard reaction to each nation`s economic slowdowns is to provide monetary stimulus
- Central bank debasement of major currencies is underway in USA, EU, Japan

19. European currencies offer more attractive alternatives to US Dollar, with Swiss Franc leading

- Low US TBill yield undermines the US dollar on comparative basis (now 2.0% differential)
- 50 bpt rate cut in November 2002 further accelerates dollar flight to Europe
- Coordinated European rate cuts temporarily stem the capital flight
- Euro currency has better competitive position (slight trade surplus, 15x gold backing)
- Euro also benefiting from diversification by other nations (e.g. China, Asians, Arabs)

20. The calendar date Sept 11th marked the turning point for US Dollar in two critical years
- In the year 1989 the fall of Berlin Wall presaged a rise in the dollar to current stretched highs
- In the year 2001 the World Trade Center attack presaged a correction after a blowoff top
- Dollar-based assets are now seen as more vulnerable, especially if located inside USA
- Saudi lawsuits only accentuate the risk of foreign capital residing within the USA

21. Rising costs from entire energy complex (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline)
- Political, legal, community, environmental obstacles to increased supply are daunting
- Kyoto Accord sets up international obstacle for increasing production outside Middle East
- Public utilities and regulated industries are under dubious management
- Entire utility sector is suffering from debt implosion, and growing derivative risk centers
- California price fixing to wholesalers is now being repeated in Arizona, Oregon, Nevada
- Natural gas production is in decline, despite jump in drill rigs and investment spending
- Gold is highly correlated with the energy complex, as its counterpart financial commodity

22. Commodity trend reversal has begun, the beginning of a new longterm trend

- The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) chart resembles lagged inverse to S&P500 chart
- The Gold chart reversal from longterm downtrend is confirmed by the CRB reversal
- Grains, precious metals, energy complex, cocoa are leading groups now
- Lumber, base metals are the groups which have yet to see price improvements
- If/when gold price surpasses #330-340, a new longterm bull trend will be established


ECONOMICS:

23. Kondratieff Winter is gathering speed and force

- Evidence in stock market broken asset bubbles, massive debt collapse, world recession
- Famous Russian economist identified 60-70 year cycles of boom and bust
- End to long expansion cycle of economic prosperity, begin new cycle after correcting excess
- Full cycle can be tracked by debt expansion, wars of popular and unpopular types
- During K-Autumn, ill-advised repeal of calamity safeguards (e.g. Glass-Steagal Law)
- K-Winter occurs one human lifetime later, after zero recollection of previous K-Winter
- Confirmation is refusal and reluctance for economies to respond to standard stimulus
- This recession is atypical: excess goods & capacity, debt collapse, price deflation
- 100 telecom bankruptcies joined by countless corporate bankruptcies
- Personal bankruptcies are now approaching 400,000 per quarter
- High profile failures with KMart, Global Crossing, Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia, JPMorgan?
- Upcoming Double Dip recession will likely be led by automobiles and real estate
- Typically results in destruction of world`s monetary standard (1930 = gold, 2000 = US$)

24. Divergence toward deflationary credit-based economy, inflationary cash-based economy

- Overcapacity of capital equipment and mfg plant has characterized this economic recession
- Recession has led to reduction in corporate cash flow necessary to service debt
- Debt collapse has led to widespread deflationary economic conditions
- Monetary expansion compensates for "burned capital", but at expense of wider imbalances
- Public mismanaged energy industry has shortages, aging infrastructure, rising prices
- If monetary expansion prevents a yield curve inversion, that signals harsh recession
- If monetary expansion upholds a yield curve steep, that forecasts future price inflation
- Currency jetstream now moves toward the diverging high and low pressure zones
- Path of least resistance for fresh capital offers highest potential in un-indebted commodities
- These three ingredients might produce a "Perfect Storm"


HISTORY:

25. the parallel between gold`s rise in the 1970`s and 2000`s has many components

- The London Gold Pool eventually failed in defending a $35 price in 1971
- The previous 1960 decade marked a strong bull market for stocks
- A vicious bear market lingered through most of the 1970 decade
- Reflation urgently required following OPEC energy cost shock and its recession
- New cycle has begun with the breakdown in the Dow/Gold or S&P/Gold ratio
- The year 2000 ratio saw an extreme ratio achieved, marking highs in "paper" assets
- The year 1981 saw this ratio in Dow terms reach parity
- Huge upside gold potential exists for gathering new supporters, advocates, investors
- Gold will slowly work through obstacles of suppressed and distorted information
- Gold will slowly be better understood, overcoming decades of conditioned beliefs
- Gold will slowly find appeal as an maverick, alternative, debt-free asset group
- Gold will slowly grow a counter-culture, standing in opposition to a corrupt Wall Street
- Gold will gradually rise in value in proportion to the degree it is hated and feared
- Gold coins can be held in one`s hand, in stark contrast to electronic entries with securities
- Demand for this small $70B sector could result in tremendous "dotcom-like" valuations


Jim Willie CB is a pseudonym used since Silicon Investor in 1998 allowed me to share facts and opinions, to learn from many brilliant people, and to disabuse others of their opinions. Two decades of experience in the business world followed earning a PhD in Statistics, enhanced by two years of college teaching. Practice has been in the computer industry, retail sector, and a consulting firm, in positions directed at quality control, marketing research, and sales forecasting. Macro-economics has been a personal interest for many years. Deep disappointment is felt in both leadership and policy decisions, which have resulted in a voyage full-circle from 1930 to today. Even patriots can foresee a painful transition before our nation`s strength is restored. A private website is in the formative stages to cover the financial hot buttons, which will most likely be operating under the name: www.goldenjackass.com.

Quelle: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie111202.html

Weitere Goldseiten: http://www.Gold-Pool.com
.

[keepitshort]

nach 5 Minuten Suche
Hier nochmal als Link zum Anklicken

The Rumour That Won`t Die - Investors Keep Worrying About J. P. Morgan`s Gold Hedging Exposure National Post, 11.8.2002


http://www.nationalpost.com/search/site/story.asp?id=D77A8E6…

[ThaiGuru]

Habe heute bei der Durchsicht meines Archivs den Artikel wieder einmal durchgelesen, der mich selbst im Januar 2001 dazu bewogen hat, massiv in die damals preislich, lächerlich tiefen Gold Minen Aktien einzusteigen.

Damals konnte man diesem Zeitungsbericht von Cash, über das Goldgeschehen, Seltenheitswert zugestehen.

Vielleicht interessiert es den einen, oder anderen neuen Leser/Goldanleger. Desshalb heute nochmals als Wiederholung.

Vor allem die letzten zwei Zeilen des Cash Artikels, sollten eigentlich heute in einem ganz anderen, leichter durchschaubaren Licht erscheinen, wenn man die Geschehnisse um JP-Morgan, mit ihren irrsinns Gold Derivativ Positionen, und um Arthur Andersen, den Buchprüfer der zwischenzeitlich Konkurs gegangenen Firma Enron kennt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



Gold trotz Klagen am Boden 10.01.01 14:05

Die Renaissance des gelben Edelmetalls wird jedes Jahr neu herbeibeschworen – und doch steigt der Goldpreis einfach nicht. Immer mehr Fachleute wittern hinter dieser Tatsache eine Verschwörung. Im Mittelpunkt soll dabei die in Basel beheimatete BIZ stehen, die auch wegen eines umstrittenen Aktienrückkaufprogramms in der Kritik steht.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Von Ernst Solèr, Redaktor CASH-Invest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Es ist nicht alles Gold, was glänzt. Dieses Sprichwort trifft dieser Tage mehr denn je zu. War die Unze vor 20 Jahren noch 800 Dollar und vor 5 Jahren immerhin noch mehr als 400 Dollar wert, kostet sie heute gerade noch mal jämmerliche 266 Dollar (GLDUZ) .

Der stete Verfall des Goldpreises trifft Exportländer wie Kanada, Australien und vor allem Südafrika. Das Land am Kap exportierte im Jahr 2000 erstmals in seiner Geschichte mehr Platin und Palladium als Gold. Platin ist zwar seltener und noch schwieriger zu fördern als Gold, aber mit inzwischen 632 Dollar stimmt hier der Preis (PLAUZ) .

Laut dem Vorsitzenden der Gold Anti-Trust Action GATA, Bill Murphy, müsste auch der Goldpreis in diesem Bereich liegen, wenn alles mit rechten Dingen zuginge. Die Gata steht hinter Klagen des amerikanischen Goldmarktspezialisten Reginald Howe, welche dieser in Boston eingereicht hat.

Gerichtet sind die Klagen wegen betrügerischer Manipulation des Goldpreises in erster Linie gegen die in Basel beheimatete Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich BIZ. Daneben werden aber auch das US- Schatzamt, das FED und Banken wie JP Morgan, Chase Manhattan oder die Deutsche Bank angeklagt. Schweizer Banken befinden sich nicht unter den Beklagten. Unter Eid vor Gericht aussagen müssen werden auch die persönlich Angeklagten Alan Greenspan und der scheidende US-Finanzminister Larry Summers.

Laut der Gata wird in New York und London, den wichtigsten Handelsplätzen, jedesmal Gold auf den Markt geworfen, wenn der Preis anfängt zu steigen. Als Beweis wird unter anderem auch folgendes Zitat von Greenspan angeführt. "Die Zentralbanken sind bereit, Gold in großen Mengen zu verleihen, falls der Preis steigt", bestätigte Greenspan im Juli 1998 vor dem Bankenkomitee des US-Repräsentantenhauses. Beobachter sehen die Aussage allerdings vor allem im Zusammenhang mit der damals akuten Russlandkrise.

Die angeklagten Banken machten mit der Ausleihe von Gold laut Gata glänzende Gewinne. Der Deal läuft in etwa so: Zentralbanken leihen Grossbanken zu einem niedrigen Zins Gold aus. Diese verkaufen die geliehenen Barren und erwerben mit den Erlösen Wertpapiere aller Art.

Ein Geschäft auf Pump also. Risikoreich, weil das ausgeliehene Gold den Zentralbanken eines Tages ja zurückgegeben werden muss. Wenigstens theoretisch.

Würde der Goldpreis nun stark ansteigen, wären die Rückkäufe am Markt kaum mehr zu bezahlen. Deshalb, folgert Howe, "haben Goldman, Chase und die Deutsche Bank in den vergangenen Jahren regelmäßig jede sich abzeichnende Goldrally an der New Yorker Warenbörse Comex durch Massenverkäufe abgewürgt".

Unabhängige Experten schätzen, dass die genannten Grossbanken den Zentralbanken zurzeit bis zu 7000 Tonnen Gold schulden. Im Vergleich dazu: Die jährliche Fördermenge liegt bei rund 2500 Tonnen. Allein die Deutsche Bank wies Ende 1999 Geschäfte mit einem geschätzten Gegenwert von 5000 Tonnen Gold aus - 1500 Tonnen mehr als die offiziellen Reserven Deutschlands.

Auch laut dem Schweizer Goldminenspezialisten Marcel R. Ewald ist es keine Frage, dass der Goldpreis manipuliert wird: „Die Nachfrage nach Gold ist seit zehn Jahren höher als das Angebot und doch steigt der Preis nicht.“ Laut Ewald werden mittels Derivaten etwa 100 mal mehr Goldtonnen gehandelt, als überhaupt vorhanden sind.

Als williges Instrument der Manipulationen haben Howe und die Gata die BIZ in Basel ausgemacht. Die BIZ wurde 1930 zur Abwicklung der deutschen Reparationszahlungen gegründet. Mittlerweile fungiert sie als eine Art Zentralbank der Zentralbanken. 49 verschiedene Zentralbanken besitzen heute gut 86% der Aktien, der Rest soll nächstens zurückgekauft werden (siehe unten). Offizielle Recheneinheit der BIZ ist der Goldfranken, die privaten Aktionäre geniessen keinerlei Mitsprachrechte. Über die BIZ wurden beispielsweise auch die kürzlichen Goldverkäufe der Schweizer Nationalbank und der Holländischen Zentralbank abgewickelt.

Nicht alle Goldexperten glauben allerdings an die Manipulationstheorie: Gold Fields Mineral Services, ein Londoner Beratungsunternehmen, wirft Howe statistische Fehlinterpretationen vor. Die Verschwörungstheorie sei abwegig.

Auch andere Experten machen für das stete Absacken des Goldpreises vor allem den starken Dollar und weltweit niedrige Inflationsraten verantwortlich. Dazu kommen immer wieder Verkäufe der Zentralbanken, die jeden noch so kleinen Kursanstieg dazu benutzen, Gold loszuwerden. Noch immer liegen in den Tresoren der Zentralbanken rund 30 000 Tonnen Gold. Dass die Zentralbanken Gold an Banken ausliehen, ist nach Meinung von Boebachtern überaus vernünftig, könne so doch wenigstens eine minimale Rendite erwirtschaftet werden.

Dennoch: Die BIZ wird sich eines Tages zu den massiven Goldmanipulations-Vorwürfen äussern müssen: Bisher bezeichnet BIZ-Sprecherin Margaret Critchlow lediglich die Anschuldigungen als haltlos, verweigert ansonsten aber jeden Kommentar.

Der BIZ stehen allerdings ohnehin schwierige Zeiten bevor: Das am Montag an einer ausserordentlichen Generalversammlung einstimmig beschlosse Aktienrückkaufprogramm stösst auf schwere Kritik und hat weitere Klagen ausgelöst. Laut Howe, der zu den wenigen Privataktionären der BIZ gehört, ist der Preis von 16`000 Franken viel zu tief. Unter anderem auch, weil die BIZ laut dem neuesten Jahresbericht selbst 192 Tonnen Gold besitzt.

Der umstrittene Aktienrückkauf wird auch in Frankreich vor Gericht kommen. «Wir werden die Klage spätestens in der kommenden Woche einreichen», erklärte Fabrice Rémon, Sprecher der auf die Vertretung von Minderheitsaktionären spezialisierten Firma Déminor gestern an einer Pressekonferenz. Fast die Hälfte des von Privaten vertreten Kapitals steht nach seinen Angaben hinter der Klage.

Laut BIZ wurde der Preis wurde auf Grund einer von J. P. Morgan durchgeführten und von Arthur Andersen bestätigten Bewertung festgelegt.

[ThaiGuru]

Die offizielle Begründung warum der Goldpreis gerade 4.50$ pro Unze abgegeben hat, dürfte morgen in allen Zeitung stehen.

Die Uninformierten, gutgläubigen, Anleger, werden es glauben, und ihr Gold, und ihre Goldaktien wieder verkaufen.

Die Chart Analysten, werden den Goldpreis Rückfall sicher mit irgendwelchen Abendsternen, oder Divergenzen erklären können.

Die cleveren Gold Bugs, oder die die es gerade werden wollen, sollten die Chance nutzen, um einzusteigen, oder ihr Gold Engagement weiter auszubauen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.boston.com/dailynews/317/world/Iraq_delivers_lett…

Iraq delivers letter to secretary-general accepting U.N. resolution, Iraq`s U.N. ambassador says

By Associated Press, 11/13/2002 11:28

UNITED NATIONS (AP) Iraq, facing a Friday deadline, has accepted a tough new U.N. resolution that will return weapons inspectors to the country after nearly four years, Iraq`s U.N. ambassador said.

``The letter says that Iraq will deal with Security Council resolution 1441 despite its bad contents,`` Ambassador Mohammed Al-Douri said Wednesday. ``We are prepared to receive the inspectors within the assigned timetable. We are eager to see them perform their duties in accordance with international law as soon as possible.``

[granitbiss]

Lieber ThaiGura

Die ganz cleveren werden Deinem Rat folgen,
evtl. Verluste übernimmst Du ??

Gold jetzt unter $ 320,--

ich habe meine gestern gekauften heute mit NIl abgegeben.

Viel Spaß als GUru
Durchhalten ist die Paralo, egal wie der Verlust ist...

[jeffery2]

Auch wenn es weh tut, der guru siehts ja so gern.....

Na ja wird schon wieder
J2

[granitbiss]

war schon unter $ 318 bester Besserwiser

[granitbiss]

Ach so, habe Deine gestrige Begeisterung in der Über -schrift vergessen :


Gold- Gold -- Gold Gold-- Gold..


War das eine Warnung ??????????????????????????

[ThaiGuru]

Press Release

SOURCE: Atlas Mining Company (ALMI)

ATLAS MINING COMPANY RECEIVES APPROVAL OF MINING APPLICATION

November 13, 2002, Osburn, Idaho - Atlas Mining Company (OTCBB: ALMI) is pleased to announce that it has received approval of its application to commence mining operations at the Dragon Mine site in Juab County, Utah. The application was submitted to the State of Utah Department of Natural Resources in accordance with applicable mining regulations.

Now that the State application is approved, the company intends to verify the continuity and quality of the halloysite deposit through exploration from the existing mine shaft and through a surface diamond drill program. Geological records indicate that the quality of the halloysite clay improves with depth. The company is in the process of developing a mining plan that targets these higher quality deposits and moves the site into production.

Atlas president, William Jacobson commented, “Our initial marketing efforts have generated substantial interest in our product. Therefore, we would like to begin production as soon as possible. We will initially target orders with smaller quantities that we know we can fill and then move to meet larger orders as we develop the property.”

The mining application approved by the State of Utah gives Atlas Mining Company the leeway to conduct all of these activities, including future extraction of halloysite for processing and sale.

About Atlas Mining Company

Atlas Mining Company is an exploration stage natural resource and mining company with an underground mining contracting business. Atlas Mining has mining and timber properties located in the Silver Valley of Shoshone County, in North Idaho. Atlas Mining also has interest in a halloysite clay property in Juab County, Utah, and in the past has pursued exploration targets in Mexico. This notice does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale.

Safe Harbor Statement -- As a cautionary note to investors, certain matters discussed in this press release may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such matters involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the following: changes in economic conditions; general competitive factors; the Company`s ability to execute its business model and strategic plans; and the risks described from time to time in the Company`s SEC filings.

For further information please contact Wayne Jenkins of IR Specialists, Inc., at 401-615-0438 or [e-mail].

[niemandweiss]

Grüss Dich Thaiguru, hi Leute

wirklich dumm gelaufen. Vorfreude soll ja bekanntlich die beste Freude sein. Sieht fast so aus, als wenn der Goldpreis den enormen Kriegsdruck die Tage schlichtweg vorweggenommen hat. Und jetzt ist das nur noch "heisse Luft" - Gewinnmitnahmen, um nicht zu sagen Flucht aus Gold.

Nur zur Information, ich bin natürlich auch investiert geblieben. . Wenn man den Chart betrachtet, ist ein Rücksetzer auch gar nicht mal so ungesund. Die Goldstory ist noch nicht vorbei. Hoffentlich reizt es jetzt auch viele "Nochnichtinvestierte", noch einzusteigen bzw. "Investierte" Nachkäufe zu tätigen.

Gruss
niemandweiss

[granitbiss]

hallo Thai

schon mal wieder allen Fragen oder ähnlichen ausweichen, mit irgendwelchen "kopierten Presse -Artikel"

High Tahi

[granitbiss]

Gold bei $ 317,..............

bezahlt dich einer für Deine ("Halte-Beiträge")

[niemandweiss]

Mein Beitrag # 3019 sollte eigentlich in den GOLD GOLD .... Thread, falsch gepostet.

granitbiss, ich finde diesen Thread mit den Pressenews nach wie vor sehr nützlich und lese sie oft und gern. Ob jemand (durch)hält oder nicht, sollte wirklich nicht von irgendwelchen Parolen abhängen. Ich verstehe zwar den Frust, den du jetzt an Thai ablässt, aber was bringt das eigentlich, wenn man Leute persönlich angreift - letztendlich kann man sich doch nur selber Vorwürfe machen!

Allgemein kam bei Gold wieder Kauflaune auf und das, "nachdem" Gold schon wieder sehr gestiegen ist; ist doch meistens der Fall - man kann förmlich die Uhr danach stellen. Im Nachhinein sind alle schlauer.

Gruss
niemandweiss

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Der "Granitbiss" braucht doch diesen Thread, wie ein Drogensüchtiger seine Spritze braucht.

Fällt der Goldpreis vorübergehend wie heute 1.5%, kann er wieder seine Show abziehen.

Steigt der Goldpreis ist es ihm auch nicht recht, und er nörgelt mit seinen idiotischen Postings im Gold Board rum.

Zur Zeit glaubt er, dass er wieder seine Angriffspostings Sucht befriedigen muss. Ausnahmsweise gerade nur unter einer seiner verschiedenen User IDs, wenigstens das ist ein Fortschritt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[crashkommt]

Eigenlich kann einen so ein Nichtsnutz wie Granit....

nur noch leid tun.


Mein Mitgefuehl hat er.


MfG

[ThaiGuru]

Der Korrektheit wegen, muss ich mein letztes Posting berichtigen:

Der Goldpreis ist von gestern auf heute nicht 1.5% gefallen, sondern sogar 1.79%!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Sovereign]

@crashkommt

Der Umstand, daß diese Randexistenz des Boards bei Dir Mitleidsgefühle weckt, spricht für Dich und Deine humanistische Gesinnung.

Mir persönlich kann er neben einem spontanen Ekelgefühl jedenfalls keine Emotion mehr entlocken.

Gruß

Sovereign

[ThaiGuru]

9:12p ET Tuesday, November 12, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Jim Puplava of www.FinancialSense.com interviewed
Larry Parks of the Foundation for the Advancement
of Monetary Education (http://www.FAME.org) the other day on his Internet radio program, wherein Parks explained how the world financial system uses its power to
create money so that wealth is transferred from the
people who produce it to the banks. The interview is
a delight because it will leave listeners wondering
whether the movement for more honest form of money
is left-wing or right-wing. Don`t worry -- you don`t
have to decide. You just have to help us make the
movement a centrist one and help us change the
system.

Assuming that your computer has a media player,
you can listen to Puplava`s interview with Parks
here:

(Dauer dieses zum anhören, extrem empfehlenswerten Interviews in englischer Sprache, über Banken, US Schulden, FED, und Greenspan, Gold, und Fiat Money, etc. beträgt 46 Minuten!

Real Player, MS Mediaplayer wird benötigt.TG)

http://www.netcastdaily.com/1experts/exp110902.ram

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[Gringo1]

An den Board-MOD

Bitte den Thread weiterhin sauber halten und Themenverfehlungen eliminieren.

Danke sehr

[Seher33]

@Thaiguru
Laß die Nörgler quaken, die haben eh nichts verstanden.
Und bitte stell weiterhin die von dir recherchierten
Berichte ins Board, sind qualitativ hochinteressant.
Der letzte downmove vor dem gewaltigen Uptrend hat begonnen,
nur viel billiger werden die Minen nicht mehr....
Am Golde hängt, zum Golde drängt ja doch alles !
Geklaut von DD
in diesem Sinne,
der Seher

[ThaiGuru]

@Seher33

Werde mich gerne weiter darum bemühen!

War zwar heute nicht gerade unser Tag, doch wenigstens die (Schaden) Freude über den doppel Intra Day Reversal am DOW, die die "den Boden haben wir endgültig gesehen" Aktien Spieler, und Goldpessimisten, erleben durften, hat meine gute Laune heute trotzdem gerettet.



Dass die Bullionbanken die heutige Annahme der neuen UN Resolution durch den Irak, dazu missbraucht haben, die unwissenden Gold Anleger einmal mehr zu täuschen, und sie glauben zu lassen, es sei massiv, richtiges Gold verkauft worden, weil die Anleger jetzt wieder an eine friedliche Regelung USA - Irak glauben, ist mehr als durchsichtig.

Seit Beginn dieses Jahres wird einerseits echtes (physisches) Gold, von den verschiedensten Ländern, und Privat Personen, in immer grösseren Mengen gekauft, und auf der anderen Seite von den Bullion Banken in immer grösseren Mengen Papier Gold verkauft, das auf Jahre hinaus gar noch nicht gefördert wird, und auch zu diesen Gold tiefst Preisen
wohl vermutlich nie geliefert werden kann.

Die neuen Mengen an zusätzlichem Papier Gold, die heute verkauft werden mussten, um den Goldpreis Anstieg abzuwürgen, und ein überschreiten der wichtigen Charttechnischen 326.25 Dollar Marke zu verhindern, und den Goldpreis kurzfristig bis auf unter 318.-$ Dollar zu drücken, wird die GATA vermutlich in etwa 2 Std. bekannt geben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&T=mark…

Economies


11/13 00:02

Brazil`s Lula to Take Office as Prices Surge, Hurting the Poor

By Charles Penty


Sao Paulo, Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- An 89 percent rise in the cost of sugar over the past two months sent Nilza Bonfim and 500 other Brazilian women onto the streets of Goiania, banging pots and pans to demand stores limit skyrocketing markups.

``Shopkeepers have been enslaving us with truly abusive price increases,`` said Bonfim, 45, president of the Movement of Housewives in the capital of the western state of Goias.

Consumer prices climbed 1.31 percent in October, the fastest monthly pace in 15 months. This year`s one-third decline in Brazil`s currency and rising values of commodities such as wheat and oil increased costs for companies from cookie maker Marilan Alimentos SA to candle producer Paloma Industria e Comercio de Velas Ltda.

Inflation is accelerating just as President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva prepares to take office on Jan. 1 and fulfill promises to lower unemployment and end hunger in South America`s biggest country. With unions demanding higher wages and with 60 percent of Brazil`s $300 billion debt linked either to the dollar or to inflation, Lula`s response may determine whether Brazil can avert default, some economists said.

``The inflationary process is here, working its way through the economy,`` said Paulo Vieira da Cunha, senior Brazil economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. ``The question is: Will there be determined action before it really gets out of hand?``

Investor concerns the government may be forced to default have contributed to a 31 percent decline in the benchmark 8 percent bond due in 2014 to about 56.5 cents on the dollar since April 1. The Brazilian real has declined 36 percent so far this year, increasing the cost of imported goods priced in dollars.

Stagnating Economy

Brazil`s consumer prices climbed less than 10 percent a year since 1996. With a weak currency now fueling markups, Lula needs to keep inflation in check to lower benchmark interest rates, currently at 21 percent, and help spur an economy that stagnated in the year to June 30, economists said.

Lula, a former union leader, isn`t concerned recent price increases will jeopardize his economic program, said Guido Mantega, an economic adviser to the next president. ``It`s an inflationary bubble that will have a limited impact,`` Mantega said in an interview.

The cost of household goods in Sao Paulo is rising at its fastest pace since 1994, said Marta Vera Junqueira, head of research at the Sao Paulo state consumer protection agency, Procon. That year, Brazil tamed inflation of more than 40 percent a month by creating a new currency and imposing spending and monetary controls.

Household Products

Between July 1994 and the end of June this year, a basket of 68 household products from cooking oil to cornstarch cookies rose at an annual rate of about 5 percent to 156.48 reais, said Junqueira. Between July 1 and Nov. 12, the basket rose to 192.59 reais, an increase equivalent to an annual rate of more than 70 percent.

In Goias, the price of a dozen large white eggs soared 32 percent, pasta rose 41 percent and soy oil 38 percent over the past 50 days, according to the state consumer protection agency. It was increases such as these that sparked the protest in the state capital, said Bonfim.

Marilan, Brazil`s fourth-biggest cookie maker, has raised what it charges for crackers by 20 percent since June. The increase didn`t fully offset a two-thirds rise in the cost of wheat to the company, which cut profit margins to 2 percent from 5 percent. Marilan in January plans a further 8 percent markup.

``It`s not in our interest to price ourselves out of the market but our own costs have risen dramatically,`` said Jose Rubis Garla, Marilan`s president, whose company produces 7,500 tons of cookies a month.

Missed Target

Brazil`s central bank already has said it will miss a 5.5 percent target for consumer price inflation this year. WestLB AG in September raised its forecast for the 2002 rise in the cost of living to 9 percent from 7.5 percent and predicts prices will rise 13 percent next year, said Adauto Lima, an economist at the bank in Sao Paulo.

Vilma Alimentos Ltda., a flour miller and food factory that supplies bakeries across Minas Gerais state, has marked up a 50- kilo bag of flour by 48 percent since May while cake mix has increased 35 percent, said Cezar Tavares, the company`s sales and marketing director.

Those increases reflect a 94 percent rise in the value of wheat imported from neighboring Argentina, he said. ``What we`re seeing is a price explosion,`` said Tavares.

Some of Brazil`s biggest companies are holding down increases because they don`t want to alienate customers and are mindful of the food riots and social unrest that toppled the government in Argentina last December.

Cia. Brasileira de Distribuicao Grupo Pao de Acucar, Brazil`s biggest retailer, has told suppliers it won`t stock their goods if it judges their rises to be excessive.

Investment Threatened

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil`s state-controlled oil producer, is holding down increases even though it needs the money to carry out planned investment of $32 billion over the next four years.

``We don`t want the whole population against us,`` said Joao Pinheiro Nogueira Batista, chief financial officer of the company, which increased the cost of gasoline to distributors by 12 percent on Nov. 4. ``If we can`t maintain the cash flow, we can`t carry out our investment plans.``

Rocklander Marcio Luiz Pinto, a Brazilian soldier, said the price of the 13 candles he lights for the dead each week at a church in Sao Paulo has risen by as much as 20 percent since May.

``It`s getting harder to live for a working man because everyday things cost more,`` said Pinto, 29, who attends the Holy Cross Chapel of the Souls of the Hanged.

For Pinto the expense of worship is about to rise even more. Albert Salem, who owns Paloma, said his factory is preparing to mark up candles a further 24 percent.

[bluemoons]

Mittwoch, 13. November 2002

Alternativen zu Aktien

von Andrew Kashdan

Ich bin auch skeptisch, was die jüngste Zinssenkung der Fed angeht. Ich zweifle daran, dass die 12. Zinssenkung mehr bringen wird als die 11 vorherigen. Aber ich zweifle nicht daran, dass diese Politik des leichten Geldes wieder zu Inflation führen wird. Die Frage ist nur ... wann?

Regierungen machen wenige Dinge richtig gut. Aber sie haben es immer sehr gut geschafft, den Wert von Währungen durch Inflation abschmelzen zu lassen. Ich glaube, dass auch Alan Greenspan das schaffen wird. Allerdings sprechen bestimmte Faktoren dafür, dass eine unmittelbar bevorstehende Rückkehr einer größeren Inflation unwahrscheinlich ist.

Die Finanzmärkte scheinen derzeit nämlich eher eine Periode mit niedriger Inflation vorwegzunehmen. An die Inflation gekoppelte US-Anleihen z.B. antizipieren für die nächsten 10 Jahre derzeit eine jährliche Inflationsrate von gerade einmal 1,5 %.

Das letzte Mal, als die erwartete durchschnittliche Inflation für die nächsten 10 Jahre unter 1,5 % lag, war in den frühen 1960ern. Die Eskalation des Vietnamkriegs hatte noch nicht begonnen. Werden wir tatsächlich wieder so niedrige Inflationsraten haben, angesichts eines "Kriegs gegen den Terror" und steigenden Defiziten? Wenn Alan Greenspan nicht plötzlich entscheidet, dass das ungehemmte Drucken von Geld doch keine so gute Idee ist, dann glaube ich nicht, dass dies der Fall sein wird.

So schmerzhaft eine Inflation auch langfristig für den durchschnittlichen Verbraucher sein kann – sie hilft den Rohstoffpreisen. Man kann also von Inflation profitieren, indem man in Rohstoffe investiert. Dazu braucht man noch nicht einmal einen dramatischen Anstieg der Inflation – auch eine relativ begrenzte Zunahme der Inflation kann Gewinne bringen.

Silber und Kupfer haben im letzten Monat schön angezogen. Das fiel mit dem Anstieg am Aktienmarkt zusammen. Allgemein ist es so, dass diese Metalle dann steigen, wenn der wirtschaftliche Optimismus zunimmt. Interessant ist, dass auch bei einer schwachen weltwirtschaftlichen Lage – wie dieses Jahr – die Nachfrage nach diesen Metallen erstaunlich gesund bleibt. Deshalb haben sich die Lagerbestände von diversen Metallen seit Juli überhaupt nicht erhöht. Normalerweise hatte es in den letzten Jahrzehnten zu Ende des Sommers immer eine Erhöhung von Lagerbeständen gegeben, aus diversen Gründen. Nicht so dieses Jahr. Das könnte der Beginn eines neuen Trends sein, der durch eine weltweit größere Nachfrage – auch wegen des Booms in China – gekennzeichnet ist.

Besonders der Verbrauch von Kupfer korreliert besonders stark mit einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung – und zwar überdurchschnittlich. Trotz der jüngsten Rallye steht der Kupferpreis immer noch auf einem historisch niedrigen Niveau. 1995 gab es ein High bei 1,30 Dollar pro Pfund, jetzt muss man nur noch 0,72 Dollar dafür bezahlen. Zuletzt sind Kürzungen auf der Angebotsseite angekündigt worden, was zu einer Verknappung des Angebotes führen wird. Bei gleichzeitig steigender Nachfrage dürfte dies zu einem Preisanstieg führen. Auch der Silberpreis ist historisch gesehen niedrig. Zuletzt wurden auch die Short-Positionen in Silber und Kupfer geschlossen – das könnte eine neue Rallye ankündigen.

Eine Diskussion von solchen Trades ist ohne den Blick auf den Dollar nicht komplett. Die Gefahr einer Inflation verstärkt den Druck auf den Dollar, der ohnehin schon unter dem riesigen amerikanischen Leistungsbilanzdefizit leidet. Eine Möglichkeit, davon zu profitieren, ist, auf den kanadischen Dollar zu setzen – der normalerweise steigt, wenn es die Rohstoffpreise tun.

Der kanadische Dollar hat gegenüber dem US-Dollar seit Anfang Oktober immerhin 2,5 % zugelegt. Das ist signifikant, wenn man an die Sache mit Währungsoptionsscheinen herangeht. Die kanadische Wirtschaftslage verbessert sich, und der kanadische Dollar könnte auch von einer Periode der weltweiten Risikoaversion profitieren. Der Grund: Kanada hat derzeit einen Leistungsbilanzüberschuss von rund 12 Milliarden Dollar – verglichen mit einem US-Defizit von über 400 Milliarden Dollar. Die Kanadier sind also nicht auf ausländische Kapitalimporte angewiesen. Ich würde dem kanadischen Dollar auch gegenüber dem Euro oder dem Yen den Vorzug geben, da es den europäischen Volkswirtschaften auch nicht gerade blendend geht und der japanischen noch bedeutend schlechter.

Also – es gibt viele Wege, Geld zu verdienen, ohne Aktien anzufassen. Warum sollte man zum Beispiel das Risiko eingehen, dass manche Firmen eines Tages Probleme mit ihren unterfinanzierten Pensionsplänen haben werden? Jetzt, wo man mit Aktien nicht mehr automatisch reich wird, könnte die Renaissance einiger guter, altmodischer und harter Anlageformen beginnen.
investorverlag

[Dottore Lupo]

@ Warze am Arsch:du hast jetzt eine Alternative....du entschuldigst dich bei mir Öffentlich,dh. in diesem Thread in Fettschrift dass du mir eine Doppel-ID oder Mehrfachnicks unterstellt hast....ansonsten werde ich die alten Sachen rauskramen als ich dich mit deinen Aliasen bewusst foppte und du dich immer aus und eingelogt hast um auf den jeweiligen Schmarrn mit ...deiner richtigen ID zu antworten...weist du so gegen Nachts um 3 sind nur immer 20 User drin...versuchs mal selber!!!!

Cu DL....der seine Meinung vertritt

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thestreet.com/_iwon/options/futurestensetsc/10053…

Strange Goings-On Between Gold and the Dollar

By Marc Dupee
Special to TheStreet.com

11/13/2002 11:58 AM EST



Gold has a unique, oppositional relationship with the dollar. When the greenback rallies, gold generally bucks any move higher in the dollar. When the dollar falls, gold almost always does the opposite and gains ground.

Although imperfect, gold`s negative correlation with the dollar is statistically consistent http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.htm on a daily basis and comes with a logical explanation.

Since world gold bullion is primarily a dollar-denominated commodity, anytime the dollar drops, gold becomes relatively cheaper across the globe, increasing the demand. And almost every time the dollar gains, gold prices usually fall as relatively higher prices reduce demand everywhere for the metal.

But when a market doesn`t do what it`s supposed to, that is, when a "normal" market relationship doesn`t hold, take note. That can be a market hinting that the forces underpinning the expected movement are being ignored and that stronger influences are afoot.

Cracks in the Ingot

The dollar/gold relationship is showing fissures. The December dollar index (DXZ2:NYBOT) has gained for the past two sessions. February gold (GCG3:COMEX) should have traded lower or flat, but it didn`t.

Gold traders expecting a reaction rally in the dollar index off its current double bottom and contract low should have sold gold in anticipation of a countertrend bounce in the buck. They didn`t. Gold failed to maintain its oppositional relationship. In short, it didn`t do what it was supposed to do.


http://www.thestreet.com/options/

Instead, gold exploded Tuesday to a six-week high and achieved the 325.0 price target I projected on Oct. 29.
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/FuturesTense/10051271_2.ht…

What are the forces that could be straining the statistical relationship between gold and the dollar? The lowest interest rates seen in half a lifetime, which is inflationary, gold triggering out of a weekly pullback setup and war jitters. http://www.thestreet.com/p/options/futurestensetsc/10053501.…

Other Markets

December silver (SIZ2:COMEX) is also trading at a one-month high and asserting itself as a potential momentum mover. December copper (HGZ2:COMEX) may be providing a second-chance entry out of its pullback from a one-month high after retouching the trigger Tuesday -- the high of the low bar in the pullback. Copper`s 10-day moving average is acting as support.

December wheat (WZ2:CBOT) is confirming that it wants to trade down to the autumn low after etching an outside bar down Tuesday. The weak close Tuesday suggests any down pulse to that target could be swift.

Finally, as if on cue, stock index futures -- December S&P 500 (SPZ2:CME), Nasdaq 100 (NDZ2:CME), and Dow contracts (DJZ2:CBOT) -- all triggered out of classic pullbacks from high setups Tuesday.

[ThaiGuru]

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20021113_1639.html



Wednesday`s Gold Prices

The Associated Press

Nov. 13 — Selected world gold prices, Wednesday.

Hong Kong late: $323.85 up $2.60.
London morning fixing: $323.20 up $1.60.
London afternoon fixing: $324.00 up $2.40.
London late: $321.70 up $0.10.
Paris afternoon fixing: $321.92 up $1.90
Zurich late afternoon: $321.80 up $0.60.
NY Handy & Harman: $324.00 up $2.25.
NY Handy & Harman fabricated: $349.92 up $2.43.
NY Engelhard: $325.20 up $2.25.
NY Engelhard fabricated: $341.46 up $2.36.
NY Merc. gold spot month Wed: $318.70 off $5.80.
NY HSBC Bank USA 4 p.m. Wed: $319.00 off $5.20.

[Dottore Lupo]

Feige Sau...mit mir traust du dich doch nicht in den Ring!!!!

Weist du Andi...da gibst richtig auf die Backen!!!!

Ich werde mich zu einem solchen Charakterlosem Kerl nicht mehr hinabbewegen.

Cu DL...und grüsse Ritzi recht schön

[jeffery2]

W e r hat noch nicht gemerkt, dass es jemanden gibt, der diesen Thread benötigt, wie der Junkie seine Spritze......? Wer ist der Junkie und wer ist die Spritze????
Antworten vertraulich auf meine BM
P.S
Jeder weiss hoffentlich, dass ich kein Goldfeind bin. Leider habe ich etwas gegen eitle Quatschköpfe, aber das war schon immer mein Fehler.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/021113/8b7b8eb228da38f84a6fe6ba2b7b…

Press Release Source: Glamis Gold Ltd.


Glamis Gold Ltd.-New Issue

Wednesday November 13, 8:12 am ET


TORONTO, ONTARIO--Glamis Gold Ltd. ("Glamis Gold") has today entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., National Bank Financial Inc., and Yorkton Securities Inc., and including CIBC World Markets Inc., Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., Research Capital Corporation and Sprott Securities Inc., under which the underwriters have agreed to buy 9,700,000 Common Shares from Glamis Gold and sell to the public at a price of C$13.15 per Common Share.

Glamis Gold has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 2,400,000 Common Shares, exercisable until 48 hours prior to the closing date, expected on or about November 26, 2002. Glamis Gold has also granted the underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase an amount of Common Shares equal to 15% of the shares sold under the offering, exercisable, in whole or in part, within 30 days following the date of closing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:

BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
[phone]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bankindex.com/read.asp?ID=1443

Gold Dinar: An Economic and Strategic Response to Chaos
.

[ThaiGuru]

November 12 - Gold $318.30 down $5.80 - Silver $4.55 down 4 cents

So Much For Leaving $320 In The Dust / On Greenspan

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

I don’t believe there is any commodity, or financial, chart in all of history that looks like the gold one. The chart above only goes back months, but we can go back to the spike after the Washington Agreement of September 26, 1999 and find the same sort of price action. Every time gold trades in the $325 area, The Gold Cartel stops gold in its tracks, bides some time and takes it lower at the right moment. Just look how many times they have done so in the past months. Free markets DO NOT TRADE like this over and over again.

Today’s trashing was classic cabal work. Yesterday, they kept gold from taking out $325 by throwing all they had at it late in the day. We KNOW this is the case because of the late heavy volume, as reported yesterday by John Brimelow, and the astonishing increase of the Comex open interest of 10,504 contracts, bringing the new total to 174,962 contracts. That is the largest one-day increase in recent memory. If gold were not rigged, it would have risen $7 to $10 on that kind of buying power.

Refco and other funds were late buyers yesterday. Based on that amount of open interest increase, they were huge buyers. The Gold Cartel held their ground as they always do at these levels and swung into action today on the sell side when it was announced that Saddam Hussein would comply with the UN inspection ultimatum. The clueless gold world will accord gold’s bashing to that announcement. What silliness! The dollar barely budged after the announcement and an ensuing stock market rally failed on the same news. Why should gold have been trashed? After all, the most horrifying new news was the acceptance by most that deranged Osama Bin Ladin is still out there doing his horrific thing. That was far more gold bullish than Hussein’s predictable response was gold bearish.

The Gold Cartel certainly forced some of the new spec longs out. They will probe again in the days to come. The cabal has been ripping off gold investors for years and years and years. JP Morgan Chase was the early seller today, according to my sources (due to recent notoriety, those same sources tell me JPM is doing what they can these days to disguise their selling at these strategic levels). One of my fonder hopes is that when all is said and done, JPM will face one of the largest class action suits in history.

Each subsequent cabal sell-off the past many months has been of a shorter duration. I suspect this one will be no different after a few more specs are cleaned out. Gold ought to be knocking on $325/$330 again, very soon.

A fellow Café member before the break this morning:

Bill,

One cannot view these spot charts, with their vertical lines moving the POG $2,3,4- day after day- and NOT know the POG is being manipulated. In other commodities one occasionally sees substantial, virtually vertical moves but not often. With POG we`re now seeing these moves very frequently- nearly always to the downside but very recently starting to see them top the upside too!

Phil

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

India ex duty premiums AM $2.09, PM $2.22, with world gold at $323.50 and $323.15. Comfortably above legal import levels, even with the abrupt rise in gold: bad news for Bears.

TOCOM continued to calm: on volume equivalent to 16,564 Comex lots (down 6.5% on yesterday) open interest rose 108 Comex equivalent: the active contract was up 10 yen, and $US gold slipped 20c. This was despite the yen (closing at 119.70, being still well below Tokyo’s Friday close. Contrary to the assumptions of early Monday, the Japanese spec long is not a seller: perhaps he has noticed the Nikkei Dow. Some other force must have caused the huge selling on that day.

That other force is clearly having to contend with some powerful and sophisticated buyer: one sees the usual effort to break gold on the NY open was decisively routed.

This is clearly a moment to focus on gold and the gold shares: and consider the gold line, #14 in Table 1, Page 5 of

http://.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0211.pdf

JB

[ThaiGuru]

Da hat sich bei JB ein Fehler eingeschlichen!

Hier der funktionierende Link zum BIZ pdf File:

http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0211.pdf

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Es scheint, als ob es allmählich auch teurer wird, den POG kaputt zu machen ...

[ThaiGuru]

November 14 - Gold $317.60 down 70 cents - Silver $4.55 unchanged

More Analysis Of The Latest Cabal Attack On Gold

I have been around the futures markets for around 27 years. For the last 12 of those years I have paid close attention to gold and silver. I cannot think of one time when gold was trashed like yesterday in which an immediate, substantial rally followed. The 10,000 plus open increase of two days ago on the $3.40 gold rally was stunning, as mentioned in the last MIDAS. Gold should have rallied $10. That told traders there were powerful forces ready to take on the bulls who were determined to take gold down, at least for the near term. Certainly, those forces were NOT the funds as they were the big buyers the previous day. The only sensible conclusion is that the sellers (plural) were a coordinated group determined to see the $325 area from being breached.

Today’s open increase for yesterday confirmed that line of thinking. The open interest went up another 400+ contracts. Some of the funds surely were flushed out on yesterday’s sell-off. The rise in the open interest means substantial new shorts were pounding gold on the way down.

Technically, that is bearish, which compounds the outside day key reversal on the charts. If gold were a free trading market, this would amount to a very disturbing development. But, it is not. Gold is a rigged market. Therefore, one might as well throw technical analysis out the window. TA has done little for the bulls on the upside and will do little for the bears on the downside.

All that matters is that The Gold Cartel be obliterated. When they are carried out on the proverbial GATA stretcher, gold will fly.

Some positives:

*Silver does not want to follow gold down. The shorts prevented silver from closing above $4.60 yesterday. If it closes above $4.60, it could REALLY run.

*The gold shares popped right back today. The XAU popped 1.01 to 66.20, while the HUI rose 1.70 to 118.54.

*I received a call from a reporter of a London newspaper who wanted to know more about the JP Morgan Chase gold story. A gold fund manager suggested he call me and review the GATA site. The more the GATA story spreads, the sooner the cabal will be ruined.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.52, PM $2.79, with world gold at $318.50 and $ 318 80. Well above legal import levels. A lot of relieved Indian fathers of brides are apparently active. With this kind of appetite, forcing gold down much further is not going to be so easy.

Japan helped the stabilization of gold this morning: $US gold edged up 20c and open interest rose the equivalent of 332 Comex contracts on volume of 21, 771 Comex equivalent. There is clearly no large scale gold futures liquidation by the Japanese public: with the Nikkei Dow hitting a 19 year low today and Japanese bank shares especially weak, perhaps this is not surprising. (New York traded 65,097 contracts yesterday: open interest rose 472 contracts.)

Yesterday the Bear proved he still has strength, meting out the normal punishment to those of us who had dared to think of a bullish move. As usual, close study is rewarding: thebulliondesk.com’s analysis is the most alert:

"Gold came under immense pressure... following the news that Iraq had agreed to …the UN resolution…$320 held initially…before a mass of further liquidation hit the market as the open interest figure for the previous day had increased by over 1m/ozs and at a much higher level. Gold quickly traded down to its low…before good support was found."



In other words what spooked the market was not the Iraqis out- maneuvering the Americans at the UN (How is President Bush going to deal with his "Regime Change" Hawks when a politicized UN issues a clean bill of health?), but the realization of what an effort it took to get gold up to a modest 6-week high. (1.05Mm ozs of net buying, a 57% acceleration of volume in the last 30 minutes on Comex when the break-out occurred.):

"Gold fell yesterday, ostensibly on…Iraq…but we think that gold would have fallen in any case. The one million-ounce equivalent increase in Comex open interest reported yesterday was large(r) than we expected and would have led to a sell-off in gold. As it was, the Iraqi news preceded and exacerbated this long liquidation."

Says UBS Warburg, usually very alert in these matters. On the other hand, yesterday’s close should also give pause to the bears: after the damage had been done to the gold price – by 1 PM – estimated volume surged – by 42% between 1PM and 2, by another 24% in the last 30 minutes of a 5 hour day – and yet a new low could not be achieved. And if it was all liquidation, why did open interest rise?

Big Brother is clearly alive and well, but does have problems.[/]

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Hardly a day goes by without a big hedger becoming sicker:

Battered Gwalia on the critical list

November 14 2002

By Barry FitzGerald

Former blue-chip gold and tantalum producer Sons of Gwalia was back on the sharemarket`s critical-condition watch list yesterday after plunging 23 cents, or more than 10 per cent, to $1.97 a share, in spite of the advance in the gold price to a six-week high on the day.

The latest plunge - the stock was trading at more than $8 a share at the start of the year - has increased pressure on the company to allay market concerns by providing an update on its financial condition.

The market has been savage on the stock since last month`s revelation that despite previous suggestions from the company, demand in the tantalum market had come under pressure. There was also confirmation of operational difficulties within the gold division.

Gold-sector analysts were again reluctant yesterday to suggest that the worst was over in the Sons of Gwalia market.

Elsewhere in the gold equities market, the US-based group that recently took over Normandy, Newmont Mining Corp, failed to impress with a profit for the third quarter of $US24 million ($A42.7 million), below market expectations.

Higher costs at the group`s Nevada operations and the impact of the stronger Australian dollar were responsible for the shortcomings. The group is one of the world`s biggest gold producers, expected to pump out 7.5 million ounces this year, reducing to about 7.2 million ounces in 2003 due to the sale of non-core operations.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

https://www.feer.com/forms/intro.html

THE 5TH COLUMN

In Gold We Trust

By Michael R. Preiss

Issue cover-dated November 21, 2002

The writer is based in Hong Kong where he is chief investment strategist at CFC Securities

The cyclic nature of investment markets--exacerbated by the "irrational exuberance" proclaimed by Alan Greenspan and now demonstrated by the market slump and countless Wall Street scandals--means changes in investment strategies must be expected periodically. So if financial assets were an important part of yesterday`s strategy, the focus now is on real assets. Indeed, investors once again are seeking value, and traditional "refuge investments" such as gold will be favoured even more, especially if the United States goes to war with Iraq.

Against this background, two recent, but overlooked, developments in the precious-metals markets bear consideration. First, China has set up a gold exchange, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which started trial operations on October 16. The official launch is expected at the beginning of next year. In China, gold trading--which means transactions apart from those involving jewellery on the retail market--has been strictly controlled by the government, with the People`s Bank of China, the central bank, monopolizing the purchase and allocation of this precious metal. But with the new gold exchange, which will mainly target gold producers and wholesalers, market forces will determine prices and the central bank will gradually withdraw from its monopoly position.

This liberalization will make it more convenient and cheaper for both companies that use gold and private individuals to buy this metal. While only spot transactions will be conducted during the exchange`s initial days of operation, futures trading will be introduced when the market becomes more mature. As a consequence, the private ownership of gold likely will rise considerably in China.

In addition, mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan together hold the world`s largest amount of U.S. dollar reserves, estimated at over $300 billion. But their gold holding is officially only 3% of all foreign-exchange reserves. By contrast, the European Central Bank`s standard is 15%. Thus, the PBOC is frequently rumoured to be a buyer of gold to raise its holdings, even if it denies it officially. Together, these developments means that demand for gold will remain firm.

Next, consider that Dubai is establishing a commodities exchange that will start by trading gold early next year. Part of the reason for this development is the Islamic gold dinar, a newly created 100% gold currency which has a weight of 4.3 grams and whose value is based on the metal`s international price. Its backers are hoping that the gold dinar will become the currency of more than one billion Muslims, and eventually turn into a rival to the dollar and serve as a reserve currency.

Already, Malaysia is said to want to use the gold dinar for trade with Islamic countries from mid-2003 onwards. Indeed, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is also finance minister, has proposed that the gold dinar be used for international trade to prevent a repeat of the currency crisis that devastated Asia in 1997-1998. If all works out, the gold dinar could pose a challenge to the existing financial system, which would in turn be enormously bullish for gold.

Today, we live in an uncertain world, where risk management must mean thinking the unthinkable. Global political instability is rising, and all the economic fundamentals that have taken the price of gold to where it is today--around $320 an ounce, from about $260 at the beginning of 2001--are still in play. Indeed, the current climate of financial scandals in the U.S., recession elsewhere, a slump in the global equity markets and an imminent war favour gold even more.

Another issue worth considering is that America needs to rid itself of excesses in its financial markets. And because of this, gloom in the U.S. cannot be expected to end too quickly. But a way out of this dilemma is if a sharp fall in the value of the dollar were to occur, which would allow America to unwind its imbalances without a double-dip recession. In just such a circumstance, commodities, in particular gold, will benefit. As such, the pressure remains for the price of gold to go up, as investors likely will move some of their dollar holdings into gold bullion--while applying appropriate hedging strategies.

Eventually, the investment community will return to stocks--which historically has outperformed other forms of investments. Retail investors will follow, looking again for speculative investments. But for now, we live in the post-dotcom era where the threshold for risk is low.

Today, gold should be the preferred investment vehicle. And why not? It`s held good for 2,000 years.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/News.asp?artic…

Kinross Sees SEC Review of Gold Merger Over Soon

14 Nov 02(3:27 PM) | E-mail Article to a Friend

By Lesley Wroughton

TORONTO (Reuters) - Kinross Gold <K.TO>, poised to become North America`s fourth largest gold miner, said on Thursday it expects a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission review of its three-way merger to be over within days so it can begin developing a strategy for the expanded firm.

Kinross said in June it would merge with Canada`s TVX Gold <TVX.TO> and Echo Bay Mines <ECO.TO>. But it said on Thursday that the SEC review had caused delays in finalizing and mailing proxy statements in time for special shareholder meetings to approve the deal.

The merger will move Kinross from the margins of the gold sector to one of the world`s 10 biggest gold producers, according to analysts, who said the SEC`s grilling was normal.

Bob Buchan, Kinross chief executive, told a conference call that the parties were discussing amending the termination date for the merger from Nov. 30 to no later than January.

"Clearly our entire intellectual focus is getting our deal through the SEC, establish a date of a meeting so we can start to move forward on developing a strategy and a vision for the new company," Buchan told analysts.

Kinross posted a net loss of $5.8 million or 2 cents a share in the third quarter on Wednesday, compared with a loss of $7.8 million or 3 cents a share in the same period of 2001.

It said gold equivalent production was 227,946 ounces at total cash costs of $205 per ounce, compared with 233,485 ounces at cash costs of $190 per ounce in the year-ago period.

Kinross said it had to restate annual results between 1999 to 2001 to comply with U.S. accounting standards relating to how it accounts for a Russian acquisition.

The restatements did not impact net loss, loss per share information and shareholders equity for the periods, it added.

Buchan said the SEC filings had diverted the small company`s manpower away from the merger.

"We believe we have one outstanding issue left with the SEC at this point but they can always ask more questions, of course, but the issue has been addressed and we hope to get that settled within the next day or two," Buchan said.

He said to complete the three-way merger before the end of the year would require a completion of SEC filings by Monday by the latest, and that seemed unlikely.

"The trouble with the process we`re going through with the SEC is not that the issues that they raised are not reasonable, and ones that we can deal with appropriately, but it takes an inordinate amount of intellectual and emotional effort to do it," said Buchan.

The company also said it was aggressively pursuing an extension of the reserves at its 50-percent-owned Refugio mine in northern Chile and is confident it will increase reserves and will be able to restart the operation next year.

Located high in the Andean mountains, Refugio was placed on residual leach mode in May 2001 after weak gold prices and a series of technical problems.

Kinross and partner Bema Gold have since been reviewing plans to restart operations. The mine is designed to produce 230,000 ounces of gold but has never achieved design capacity.

Shares in Kinross were down 3 Canadian cents at C$2.92 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

(Reuters Toronto newsroom [phone], [e-mail])

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/breaking/?show=29863

15 November 2002

Breaking News

Mining law in place by June 2003

South African legislation to change the white-dominated industry will be up and running by June next year, a senior government official said this week.

"The legislation will be effective by no later than June next year," Minerals Department director Jacinto Rocha told Reuters.

"Once we have everything in place, we will ask the president to sign it and it will become effective”.

Industry stakeholders have expressed concerns that the lack of a time frame to implement the Minerals Act, which aims to give blacks a bigger stake in the white-dominated industry, was creating uncertainty in the market.

The Act also provides for a charter. A final draft released last month says 15% of local mine assets must be in black hands within five years and 26% in 10 years.

A first draft of the charter leaked in July scared investors with its suggestions that 30% of mining assets and 51% of all new projects must be sold to black businesses within 10 years.

Eight years after the end of apartheid, glaring income inequalities remain in South Africa, which are causing investor concern about the longer-term political and economic outlook. – Reuters.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021115/minerals_safrica_harmony_4.ht…

Reuters

1-Harmony to begin NYSE trading Nov 27

Friday November 15, 9:39 am ET


(JOHANNESBURG, Nov 15 (Reuters) - South Africa`s third largest gold miner Harmony Gold said on Friday it would list on the New York Stock Exchange on November 27, joining fellow mining majors AngloGold(ANGJ.J) and Gold Fields (GFIJ.J) (NYSE:GF - News).

Harmony, whose American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) already trade on the U.S. Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News), will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol HMY, the company said in a statement.

"This move represents an important milestone in our growth as an independent public company over the past seven years," said Harmony Chief Executive Officer Bernard Swanepoel.

"We believe that the NYSE listing will improve Harmony`s visibility among a wider base of investors while also lessening the volatility of our stock for current investors."

Harmony is the world`s fifth largest gold producer, with an output of 2.7 million ounces in the year to June. It sees production rising to 3.1 million ounces in the 2003 financial year.

Harmony`s share price was 1.7 percent or 240 cents higher at 45 rand at 1420 GMT, slightly outperforming a 1.4 percent gain in the gold mining index (^JGLDX - News). Analysts said the move to the NYSE would improve the rating on Harmony`s shares, which are already highly liquid.

"The share rating is still very wide between the U.S. and South Africa, and Harmony management are probably hoping it will close that gap. It will also increase interest in a very liquid stock in a market where investors are prepared to pay more," said one analyst.

"They should benefit from moving to the NYSE where the spreads are slightly beter, and they will be trading alongside their peers," said another.

South Africa`s largest gold miner AngloGold (NYSE:AU - News) debuted on the NYSE in August 1998, and Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI - News), South Africa`s second largest gold miner, listed in May. Pulp and paper firm Sappi (SAPJ.J) (NYSE:SPP - News) also has a NYSE listing.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/g/gsrsf.html

Financials - GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD (GSRSF)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?lang=EN&tz=0&tz_fo…

15.11.2002 14:34:02

Central Bank doesn`t rule out increase of gold, forex reserves to $48 billion by end of year

MOSCOW. Nov 15 (Interfax) - Oleg Vyugin, first deputy chairman of the Central bank, does not rule out that the gold and currency reserves may reach $48 billion before the end of this year.

Earlier, the Central Bank projected the gold and hard currency reserves at $44-45 billion at the end of this year. However, they reached $47.1 billion as of November 8.

"I think we will maintain this rate in the near future," Vyugin said. He said he does not rule out that the amount of gold and hard currency reserves may increase in December.

Vyugin attributed this to favorable conditions on the world oil market. RTS$#&:

[aneises2]

Der Wechsel von Harmony zur NYSE hat den Nachteil, daß die Tradinggebühren an der NYSE wesentlich höher sind.

Gruß
aneises2

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/news.nsf/FNmg1F0?OpenFrameSet&Frame=Art…

Randgold Resources a 472% rise in net profit

Posted:11/14/2002 06:00:00 AM | © Mineweb 1997-2002

London - Randgold Resources, the London and Nasdaq listed mining and exploration company, reported a 472% surge in net profit for the September quarter and said it would use its growing cash resources to pursue new growth opportunities.

A company statement said, with very high grades kicking in at Morila as expected, Randgold Resources’ share of the production from its 40% owned mine in Mali climbed by 185% to a record level of 171 368 ounces for the quarter. By end-September, Morila had already exceeded its production and earnings targets for the full year.

Boosted by Morila’s strong performance, the company’s net profit of US$30.5 million was up almost sixfold from the previous quarter, in spite of increased exploration and other expenditure, while operating profit grew by 242% to US$42.3 million.

Randgold Resources’ two feasibility-stage projects - Loulo in Mali and Tongon in Côte d’Ivoire - were both advanced

Looking ahead, chief executive Dr Mark Bristow said while the high grades at Morila were not likely to be sustained at the past quarter’s extremely high levels, they would continue to have a significant positive impact on the company’s results in the short to medium term.

[ThaiGuru]

Eine weitere interessante Analyse zum Crash des Goldpreises um 8.- Dollar, nach der Ankündigung der Annahme der neuen UN Resolution durch den Irak, von vor 2 Tagen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

Iraq raid ruse robs gold price of $8

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2002/11/13 Wed 16:37 | © Mineweb 1997-2002


NEW YORK -- How remarkably unimaginative gold commentators have lately become. How uncommonly susceptible to guff gold investors can be.
Even the least politically astute person could figure out that Iraq was always going to sign on the dotted line for UN weapons inspections, dreams of the restoration of Nebachudnezzar`s glory aside. And now we are to believe that the gold market is peopled with idiots and reporters who can’t see a stunt when it stares them in the face.

Iraq was the excuse professionals used to shake loose the competition which proved unequal to the task. The bears are still too good, even if times are tougher. It wasn’t funds that got caught long, it was main street speculators that got cold feet, driving Comex December gold down $5.80 to $318.90 from $325.40. At one stage it was driving toward $317 and worse before things improved.

Ever since George Bush began moving weapons toward Iraq and telling Saddam Hussein he was going to get his tail whipped, it was blindingly obvious America had already won the war without so much as firing a shot. Just look at what happened to oil prices the more war talk there was – they plunged along with the stocks of oil companies.

Yet the newswire services would have us believe gold fell because Saddam suddenly came to heel. Here’s Reuters carrying the party line: “Funds got caught with unwanted safe-haven positions booked Tuesday, when Iraq`s parliament rejected the U.N. resolution and passed the decision to President Saddam Hussein, who holds absolute power in Iraq.” (Don`t you love the "absolute power" political correctness when "dictator" would say it all...)

Tripe. Any fund that relied on a strategist who recommended gold on the basis of a declaration by the Iraqi “parliament” should be fired. Even the world’s chief dunce, according to these same agencies, warned that the Iraqi parliament was all about show business and that Saddam was where the buck stopped. Everyone knew what Saddam was going to do with the buck when it got to him - put his hands up.

“War premium”; what an insult, more insulting that it was taken hook, line and sinker by sellers.

The gallery obviously needs some reassurance that gold is not moving now for reasons of war, but because the global economy and its American flywheel are spinning slower and slower. If you want war premiums, follow oil from whence the clues were rather obvious.

To illustrate in just what a mess the US economy remains, consider the Reuters softball on Alan Greenspan’s Congressional testimony today: “Cautiously hopeful comments on the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve… buoyed the dollar but were overshadowed by the Iraq announcement.” Reuters seems not to have noticed that Greenspan is never anything by “cautiously optimistic” or “prudently admonitory”.

Of course, it’s not just Reuters, but every agency swallowing the Iraq pill. Dow Jones: “speculative players predictably bailed out of the gold market en masse on news that Iraq agreed to allow the return of weapons inspectors into the country.” No interview with these specs to ask them why they were dumb enough to load up on gold on the word of the Iraqi parliament. Predictable, says Dow Jones!

The only role Iraq played in today’s gold price plunge, was its value to shorts in scaring people out of the market.

And, contrary to reports that Tuesday’s spike was driven entirely by the Iraqi parliament’s dance of the seven veils, it was really off the back of Indian inurement to steadily rising gold prices and reports of sellers taking a beating in Japan. Of course, there was some fund buying in concert with scare mongering on Iraq.

What we saw today was selling in ignorance and it was way over done. Well done if you shorted $324; that was smart.

Take a monthly gold price chart from 1971. You’ll notice a peculiar “formation” from 1999 until now, that looks suspiciously like a teacup, complete with handle. A cup and handle is one of the rarest technical formations on offer; never again are you likely to see one so clearly as in the gold charts now. Take or leave technical indicators, it has always been reliably bullish. And who should not ride self-fulfilling prophecies?

[mickym [VIP]]

Im Dezember letzte Chance für den Zug bei Gold und Silber:

Der Weihnachtsmann bringt Gold und Silber


aus

http://www.stockmove.de/02.32mb151102.htm

Gruss und gute Investments Mic

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Samstag 16.11.2002, MEZ 07:58

Saddam sucht laut «Times» in Libyen Zufluchtsort für seine Familie

LONDON - Iraks Präsident Saddam Hussein hat einem britischen Zeitungsbericht zufolge Libyen 3,5 Milliarden Dollar geboten, wenn das Land seiner Familie und ranghohen Regierungsmitgliedern eine sichere Zufluchtsstätte bietet.
Die Londoner «Times» berichtete am Samstag, Diplomaten in Tripolis hätten Beweise für den Plan vorgelegt. Es sei ein Zeichen dafür, dass sich Saddam auf die Möglichkeit von Militärschlägen vorbereite, die zu seinem Sturz führen könnten.

Libyens Staatschef Muammar Gaddafi werde jedoch weder Saddam selbst noch dessen ältesten Sohn Uday Unterschlupf gewähren. Andere Kinder und Enkelkinder Saddams sowie ranghohe Regierungsmitglieder könnte Libyen dagegen aufnehmen, berichtete die Zeitung.

Syrien habe sich bereit erklärt, einen Fluchtweg über Land zur Verfügung zu stellen, von dort sollten die Iraker dann nach Libyen fliegen, heisst es in dem Bericht. Ein Vertrauter Saddams sei nach Tripolis gereist, um die Vereinbarung auszuhandeln, der zufolge Irak 3,5 Milliarden Dollar auf libysche Bankkonten überweisen soll. 160319 nov


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Samstag 16.11.2002, MEZ 08:15

15. November 2002 22:36

Waffeninspektionen im Irak beginnen am 27. November

NEW YORK - Die Waffeninspektionen im Irak werden nach vierjähriger Unterbrechung am 27. November wieder aufgenommen. Das kündigte der Leiter der UN-Abrüstungskommission UNMOVIC, Hans Blix, in New York an.
Resolution 1441 des Sicherheitsrates schreibt UNMOVIC und der Internationalen Atomenergieorganisation (IAEA) vor, mit der Suche nach chemischen, biologischen und nuklearen Massenvernichtungswaffen spätestens bis zum 23. Dezember zu beginnen.

Blix und IAEA-Direktor Mohammed el Baradei wollen am Montag mit einem Vorausteam in Bagdad eintreffen. Genau eine Woche später werden die ersten Inspektoren vom UNO-Hauptsitz in New York erwartet.

Sie haben gerade einen Tag Zeit, um sich auf das Klima im Irak umzustellen und sich vor Ort auf ihre schwierige Aufgabe vorzubereiten. Spätestens eineinhalb Wochen darauf, bis zum 8. Dezember, muss die irakische Regierung dem Sicherheitsrat eine lücken- und fehlerlose Aufstellung aller ihrer Waffen und Waffenmaterialen vorlegen.
Blix warnte derweil Irak vor einer Verzögerungstaktik. Selbst eine Verzögerung von einer halben Stunde könne schwerwiegend sein. Bei Verzögerungen werde der Grundsatz eines sofortigen und bedingungslosen Zugangs der Waffeninspektoren zu den irakischen Waffen-Arsenalen berührt. Insgesamt gebe es rund 700 Anlagen, die sein Team kontrollieren wolle, sagte Blix gegenüber der französischen Tageszeitung «Le Monde».

«Wir versuchen, unser Vorgehen geheim zu halten. Deswegen kann selbst eine Verzögerung von einer halben Stunde von Bedeutung sein», sagte Blix. Ob mit einer Verzögerung durch die irakische Seite gegen die UNO-Resolution 1441 verstossen wird, werde nicht von den Inspektoren entschieden. Dies sei Sache des UNO-Sicherheitsrates, betonte Blix. 152234 nov


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

9:39p ET Friday, November 15, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Michael Kosares, proprietor of Centennial
Precious Metals in Denver and www.USAGold.com,
and host of that Internet site`s invaluable
forum, considers Tim Wood`s recent interview
of Goldcorp CEO Rob McEwen at Mineweb.com as
important as GATA does, and has put an
insightful preface on it in posting it at
USAGold. That preface is appended here.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

By Michael Kosares
http://www.USAGold.com
Friday, November 15, 2002

In the following interview Mr. McEwen is
hitting on something vital. As a matter of
fact, when looking at the long-term prospects
of gold, as physical owners for the interim,
we should view this as perhaps the most
important gold story out there.

McEwen is absolutely correct, and people in
the industry who have tried to acquire a large
gold lot -- and I mean one to 10 tonnes, not
300 tonnes -- have found that the bullion banks
cannot produce. They can talk the talk, but
when the money`s on the table, they can`t
produce.

We had a call about six months ago from a
trading house in Canada looking for anything
of size -- 1 tonne or better. There was
nothing out there. The trader, who shall
remain anonymous, confided in me: "It`s not
supposed to come to this, eh?" But someone
his firm represented needed metal and needed
it fast.

It happens. And it`s going to happen with
more frequency as more gold loans become
due and mining production feels the hard
downward curve associated with depleted
high-grade zones.

The contradiction is that it seems that there
are always enough gold coins and bars for
small-investor needs. Somehow the gold is
found to keep mint and refinery production
levels consistent with demand. Why?

My own belief is that the bullion houses move
heaven and earth to keep up the appearance of
plentitude in order to prevent the public from
finding out the gold market`s dirty little
secret: There`s no gold in size for anyone
(including nation-states) who wants it.

Just think what that means when the gold loan
scenario rolls out of the paper game and real
metal becomes an issue for settlement.

In my view, the small Third World central
banks that have been depleted of their
reserves in these lending schemes are going
to get creamed, and there`s little they will
be able to do about it.

Many people ask for the real reason why the
top central banks curbed gold lending through
the Washington Agreement. Once again it was
because fractional reserve gold lending was
getting out of control. The prospect loomed
that all hope for the return of deposited
gold would be lost in a massive default.

That propect hasn`t gone away. It`s still out
there and that`s why buying gold now while
the bullion houses think they`ve got the wool
over our eyes is one of the best investment
prospects I have seen in my 30 years in the
gold business.

Last week we had the question of how the
late-1960s gold market compared to the present.
It does in one important way: It`s the best
investment opportunity of a generation. View
control of the gold price as your friend, not
your enemy. The dollar market someday will
break the back of the gold cartel. When it
does, gold owners will look back at the
beginning decade of the 21st century as they
looked at the 1970s -- a time of unprecedented
returns on our portfolio insurance policies.

Sell the rallies in stocks. Buy the dips in
gold (the rallies in the dollar). That`s
called taking advantage of the new reality.
Gold volumes at USAGold/Centennial Precious
Metals over the past three months are running
near 1999 levels. The wider world is unaware
of what astute investors are doing and
consider their good advantage.

-END-

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021115-025849-9656r

White House tones down terror warning

By Nicholas M. Horrock
UPI Chief White House Correspondent
From the Washington Politics & Policy Desk
Published 11/15/2002 4:32 PM

WASHINGTON, Nov. 15 (UPI) -- The White House and the FBI Friday began back-peddling from a warning the bureau issued saying al Qaida was plotting "spectacular" attacks against the United States, after critics latched on to it to show progress in the war on terror was faltering.

National security adviser Condoleezza Rice said at a White House briefing that the FBI`s warnings this week are "really are a summary of intelligence, not a new warning. This is a summary of intelligence as we know it."

Her statement came as the Bush administration rushed to offset the FBI`s startling language and refute charges by Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle that the war on terror was faltering and an attack on Iraq would distract the nation from the more pressing danger posed by al Qaida.

Deputy Press Secretary Scott McClellan told reporters that although the terrorism risk level remained unchanged, the FBI report showed, "we are taking additional precautions to meet the threat." He said the intelligence behind the reports was unspecific and did not lend itself to clear warnings.

He said that the bureau`s warning, sent to local law enforcement agencies Thursday and then published Friday on the National Infrastructure Protection Center`s Web site, had been reviewed by the White House and other agencies, before it was issued.

But the bureau warning came in a week in which world attention turned once again to al Qaida, the shadowy terror organization blamed for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

An audio recording -- apparently the voice of al Qaida leader Osama bin Laden -- was broadcast by the Arab language Al Jazeera news network earlier this week. Although U.S. intelligence agencies have not completed a final analysis of the tape, the recording is the first piece of evidence that bin Laden survived the U.S.-led assault on his Afghan sanctuary last year.

Following the broadcast, United Press International reported unnamed senior government officials as saying that "chatter" -- intercepted communications between al Qaida operatives -- was at its highest level.

Two other warnings preceded Thursday`s alert.

On Wednesday, FBI told officials in Houston, Chicago, San Francisco and Washington to be alert for threats against hospitals. And the State Department warned Americans abroad, particularly in Pakistan, that the execution Thursday night of a Pakistan citizen for a shooting rampage at CIA`s headquarters 1993 might be avenged with attacks.

By Friday, the FBI itself was throwing cold water on its own alert. A spokesman said that "nothing (in the warning) is corroborated, its done out of an abundance of caution."

Rice said that the Bush administration issued these warnings -- which have often in the past been criticized as alarmist and unspecific -- because "it is important that Americans know when this sort of thing comes to the attention of the administration."

Without mentioning Daschle`s name, Rice refuted his charge about the progress of the war on terror, saying the United States had eliminated several key al Qaida leaders, eradicated training camps in Afghanistan, destroyed terror command and control and hardened up many of its own defenses. Rice said the 60 nation terror war coalition shared intelligence and that movement for al Qaida was much more difficult.

--

(With reporting by Michael Kirkland, UPI Legal Affairs Correspondent)

Copyright © 2002 United Press International

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=V0PSMBW…

Argentina Blames IMF for Latest Debt Default

By Brian Winter

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina on Friday blamed "savage" IMF policies for a debt default with the World Bank that has left the depression-stricken country with little hope for foreign aid.

Both the International Monetary Fund and Argentina insisted they would press on with 11 months of agonizing aid talks, but a deal appeared unlikely anytime soon after Argentina missed an $805 million payment it owed the World Bank on Thursday.

The IMF, wary after dozens of broken Argentine promises in past years, has insisted the country`s bickering politicians must line up to support a deal before any cash is given.



However, the unpopular transition government has waffled on simple issues like presidential elections, saying on Friday it could delay the March voting date despite regular protests by thousands of protesters demanding that all politicians resign.

The country was shocked this week by news that four children had died from malnutrition in a country blessed with some of the world`s most fertile farmland, but on its knees after four years of devastating recession.

Cabinet Chief Alfredo Atanasof said that without IMF aid, Argentina simply did not have enough money to avoid the embarrassing World Bank default, which cuts off one of its last sources of financing after it stopped payment this year on about $95 billion in debt held by private investors.

"Argentina was not going to accept the policy of savage budget adjustments as a strategy for getting over its problems," Atanasof told reporters. "That`s how we ended up in the longest negotiation in the history of the IMF."

The default was the latest in a long series of humiliations for Argentina, where half the 36 million people live in poverty and unemployment runs at all-time highs above 20 percent.

`DEFAULT WITH EVERYBODY`

Trying to answer the IMF`s calls for political unity, unpopular President Eduardo Duhalde called a meeting of provincial governors and congressional leaders for Monday.

But Duhalde`s plans for early presidential elections in March could be put on hold after a court ruling on Friday that reinstated Dec. 15 as the date for party primary elections.

The president said earlier this month that such a ruling could leave officials without enough time to organize the March vote, possibly forcing its delay until April.

The electoral confusion was likely to perplex the IMF, which has insisted in recent months that Duhalde not only control Argentina`s legislature but resolve a standoff with the courts as well.

IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler told a banking conference in Berlin the IMF was committed to reaching a deal but said "the substance has to be there" and went on to say Argentina must take responsibility for its crisis.

His comments seemed to be in line with those made on Thursday night by the IMF`s No. 2, Anne Krueger, who said Argentina had agreed to seek the "necessary consensus" with political leaders for a deal.

Of 19 deals signed with the IMF since 1958, Argentina has failed to meet agreed terms in 15 of them. Broken promises to cut spending led the IMF to cut off aid in December, which quickly led Argentina to default on the privately held debt and abruptly devalue its currency.

Analysts were split over how the default would impact the economy. After sharp losses on Thursday, the stock market closed higher despite fears a fragile stability seen in recent weeks could be shattered.

"I think Argentines are already used to the idea that we`re in default with everybody in the world," said Hernan Fardi, an economist for Maxinver consultancy. "I don`t think it affects everyday people that much. You might see some nerves in markets but, for now, that`s all."

[ThaiGuru]

Darf es noch ein bisscherl mehr sein?

Ein neuer Versuch die jap. Wirtschaft zu retten.
Diesmal mit 4 Trillionen jap. Yen.

Ob`s hilft?

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…

Top Stories World

11/16 04:42

Koizumi Will Seek 4 Tln Yen Budget, Nihon Keizai Says (Update1)

By Norie Kuboyama


Tokyo, Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan`s Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will next week propose spending about 4 trillion yen ($33.2 billion) in an extra budget for the fiscal year ending March 31, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said, citing the proposal.

Koizumi`s plan includes 1.5 trillion yen to create technology venture companies and support job creation measures, the paper said. It allocates a further 1 trillion yen for urban renewal and environment-related projects, the report said.

Koizumi will propose the package at a Nov. 22 cabinet meeting and announce a final decision on Dec. 10, the paper said.

Koizumi yesterday said extra spending was needed to shore up Japan`s faltering economy, which grew at a slower 0.7 percent pace in the third quarter compared with 1 percent gain in the previous three months. That may mean breaking his pledge to cap new bond sales at 30 trillion yen for the current fiscal year.

Japan is preparing a package to cover a shortfall in tax receipts that Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa forecasts may be as much as 2.8 trillion yen and to create jobs as new rules force banks to cut off more delinquent borrowers.

The size of the extra budget, which is due to be submitted to parliament in January, needs be at least 5 trillion yen, according to Trade Minister Takeo Hiranuma. Shiokawa yesterday said the amount hasn`t been decided.

``We would like the extra budget to provide urgent and concrete steps for the economy,`` Shiokawa told reporters after a cabinet meeting. He said the extra budget`s growth-related measures ``will not be large-scale, but something that can serve for the next two to three months.``

Japan downgraded its monthly economic assessment this week for the first time in a year, saying falling exports and stock prices have put a recovery in danger.

Since 1992, Japan has earmarked more than 100 trillion yen of extra spending in an effort to boost an economy that`s had three recessions in a decade. Even so, Japan achieved an averaged 1 percent growth per year in the past decade.

[ThaiGuru]

AT&T Latein America wird evtl. schon nächstens, nach grossen Verlusten, in Konkurs gehen!



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/11/16/1116wi368728.htx

Argentinien verweigert Zahlungen an die Weltbank
Die Finanzkrise im hoch verschuldeten Argentinien hat sich weiter verschärft.

Washington - Das Land verweigerte die Rückzahlung einer fälligen Rate an die Weltbank und kam damit erstmals seinen Verpflichtungen auch gegenüber den internationalen Finanzorganisationen nicht mehr nach.

Mit der Entscheidung, das Geld nicht zu überweisen, wird Argentinien von sofort an keine neuen Weltbank-Kredite mehr bekommen. Die Auszahlung von Tranchen bereits gewährter Kredite wird ebenfalls eingestellt, wenn das Geld nicht bis zum 15. Dezember eingeht. Zudem werden auf den Kredit wesentlich höhere Zinsen fällig.

Gefährdet sind damit wichtige Finanzhilfen für soziale Zwecke, während die Verarmung des einst reichen Landes immer dramatischere Formen annimmt. In der nördlichen Provinz Tucuman verhungerten in den vergangenen Tagen vier Kinder, deren Eltern seit zwei Jahren arbeitslos waren und keine staatliche Unterstützung mehr erhielten. Insgesamt 260.000 Kinder gelten als akut unterernährt in dem fünftgrößten Agrarexportland der Welt. dpa

[Gringo1]

Hi Thai,

was glaubst ist erst los, wenn Lula in Bra nicht mehr zahlt.

Die Arg. habe aber recht, warum sollen sie denen, die ihre Misere mitverursacht haben, auch noch was zahlen.

Cu, Gringo

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/11/16/1116wi368725.htx

Samstag, 16. November 2002 Berlin, 09:10 Uhr

Milliardenbelastung durch Notgesetze

Institut: Bis zu 200 Euro pro Monat mehr Sozialbeiträge.

Forderungen nach längerer Lebensarbeitszeit

Berlin – Die von der rot-grünen Koalition im Bundestag durchgesetzten Notgesetze zur Stabilisierung der Renten- und Krankenkassen belasten Arbeitnehmer und Unternehmen im nächsten Jahr zusammen mit 9,1 Mrd. Euro. Dies hat das arbeitgebernahe Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Köln ausgerechnet.

Nach IW-Angaben erhöhen sich die monatlichen Höchstbeiträge zur Sozialversicherung im kommenden Jahr pro Monat um 199,58 Euro im Westen und um 170,58 Euro im Osten.

Jeweils die Hälfte davon müssen Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer zahlen. Insgesamt steige der Prozentsatz des Bruttolohnes, der in die Sozialversicherungen fließe, von 41,3 auf 42,1 Prozent.

Bundessozialministerin Ulla Schmidt verteidigte ihr Gesetzespaket im Bundestag als „gerechte und faire Aufteilung von Lasten in schwierigen Zeiten“. Der CSU-Politiker Horst Seehofer sprach von einer „gigantischen Abgabenerhöhung“. Experten übten scharfe Kritik an dem Notmaßnahmen bei der Rente.

Die höhere Beitragsbemessungsgrenze würde nur kurzfristig Löcher stopfen, langfristig aber noch größere aufreißen, weil die Einzahler auch höhere Rentenansprüche erwerben. 40 Politiker der SPD und 18 der Grünen gaben bei der Abstimmung massive Bedenken zu Protokoll. Dabei forderten sie grundlegende Reformen der Sozialsysteme.

„Wir bedauern, dass das Prinzip der Generationengerechtigkeit für die Übergangszeit bis zu einer grundlegenden Reform nicht berücksichtigt wird und einseitig die jungen Generationen durch Beitragssteigerungen und die Anhebung der Beitragsbemessungsgrenzen belastet werden“

, heißt es in der Erklärung der Grünen-Abgeordneten.

In der Diskussion um die Zukunft der Rentenversicherung wird die Forderung nach einer Verlängerung der Lebensarbeitszeit immer lauter.

Renten-Experten forderten größere finanzielle Einbußen bei vorzeitigem Eintritt in die Rente, um so die Zahl der Frührentner zu verringern. „Man muss über höhere Abschläge nachdenken“, sagte Bert Rürup, designierter Vorsitzende der Regierungs-Kommission für die Reform der Sozialversicherungen.

Die Grünen-Rentenexpertin Thea Dückert sagte, die Rürup-Kommission sei „gut beraten, wenn sie sozial verträgliche Einstiegsmodelle in eine längere Lebensarbeitszeit entwickele. Zum Vorschlag Rürups, die Lebensarbeitszeit auf 67 Jahre anzuheben, sagte Dückert, es sei wichtig, das tatsächliche Renteneintrittsalter von derzeit 60 Jahren zu steigern. Auf die Zahl, die im Gesetz stehe, komme es nicht an. Auch der Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag begrüßte den Rürup-Vorstoß.

Bundesfamilienministerin Renate Schmidt (SPD) forderte die Unternehmen eindringlich auf, mehr ältere Mitarbeiter zu beschäftigen. Sie kritisierte, dass die Wirtschaft sich einerseits über steigende Sozialbeiträge beklage, zugleich aber die Menschen vor dem gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalter in den Ruhestand schicke: „Die Unternehmen entledigen sich auf Kosten der Allgemeinheit der etwas teureren Beschäftigten.“ Sie müssten überzeugt werden, „im volkswirtschaftlichen Interesse die Kompetenzen Älterer zu nutzen“.

Sozialministerin Ulla Schmidt (SPD) und Fraktionschef Franz Müntefering gingen am Freitag auf Distanz zu Rürups Reform-Appellen und verteidigten das Rentenkonzept der rot-grünen Regierung. Rot-Grün habe dafür gesorgt, dass die Rentenbeiträge heute niedriger seien als 1998. „Ich akzeptiere nicht, dass das kein Konzept sein soll“, sagte Müntefering zur Kritik Rürups. DW

[ThaiGuru]

Technical Review Gold

After the "Saddam Wilco" Decline
Gold ends the Week divinely Neutral with a Positive Bias

The "Saddam Wilco" break in gold from a hair under $325 to $318 held directly in first support. You will recall that my last technical review called for internal weakness in gold to end, today, Friday. I would have preferred that it already had ended last week but you do not always get it perfectly. You will also recall that I recommended that when you are in doubt you refer to the 5 Golden Keys and the Noise Box to determine if the event in the news will significantly alter the long-term direction of gold. There is, in my opinion, no chance that Saddam is welcoming the on-ground weapons inspectors with open arms and will lead them directly to his hidden weapons. I also do not believe this market in gold is predicated on war in Iraq. That potential conflict is noise only at this moment and not a Key Golden Fundamental Key of the market. As noise it certainly can move the market but it cannot break or make the market. The rally in the general equities as strong as it has been is still, IMO, a rally within a bear market.[/b][/u]

The action in gold today was positively biased. The front running GG & RGLD gold shares both closed right on the key points of break out or break down. With today as the day that the internal character of the gold market should shift from negative to positive, I am betting on the front running gold shares as breaking out soon and not breaking down here. Since we bought back correctly in the last decline, I am straining not to sell here. The reason is that a close over $326 before the end of next week could happen. That would change, IMO, the entire face of this gold market to positive for 15 to 27 weeks. A lot could happen within such a period of time.

RGLD Royal Gold: The Royals stuck their nose out of the triangle and closed absolutely on it. Who said golds or markets are easy? A move up from here and a close over $20 defines the target as $24-$25 for the next hesitation. I would like to see momentums 14 turn up and a positive cross over on the MACD 3-6-7 to be convinced that $25 was in the bag.

GG Goldcorp: We are right on a neckline? I mean right on it! Amazing how these things do such an outrageously technical closing. A close slightly over 11 on this one and new highs are in the offering.

If the gold stock front runners go to new highs they will pull up the laggards. With today being the day the negativity should come off gold and gold shares with such a possibility showing itself within the market place I am betting on better time right ahead of us. We shall see. My purpose is to give you the best I can produce. Selling them today would have been easy and profitable but realize that I am straining to give you the best possible guidance possible. If you are uneasy they should be around the same levels Monday and you can leave. For me, I am hanging in this time. Enjoy your weekend. I will be digging into the gold world`s largest pile of email. I know, I should get a life! But, I tell people this is my life.

JIM

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Hallo Gringo

Ein schönes Wochenende wünsch ich Dir

Fast so sicher wie das Amen in der Kirche, wird auch Brasilien, in die Fusstapfen Argentiniens treten.

Am Freitag sahen die meisten Goldaktien ja schon wieder ganz gut aus. Nächste Woche dürfte hoffentlich endlich der Durchbruch über die 326.-$ Dollar kommen.

Selbst hier in Thailand, empfehlen sie in den Thai Zeitungen jetzt Gold als Absicherung zu kaufen, und die Leute hier werden auf einen möglichen Krieg im Irak vorbereitet, und vor anderem wirtschaftlichen Ungemach in Japan, USA, und Europa gewarnt.

Wusstest Du eigentlich schon, dass es hier in Thailand, neben den bekannten Thaigold Ketten, auch wunderschöne Gold Barren, verschiedenster Formen, mit chinesischen Stempeln, in fast allen Gewichts Grössen, von 5 Bath (1 Bath = 15,12 Gramm), bis zu 1 Kilo Barren anonym zu kaufen gibt.

Der heutige Goldpreis = 1 Bath = 6750.- THB

Die Wechselkurse kannts Du hier täglich neu ersehen:

http://www.bbl.co.th/Bangkok+Bank/Web+Services/Rates/FX+Rate…

Dieses "Thai" Gold [96.50%] gibt es im China Town Bangkoks "Yaowarath" bei den roten Chinesen Shops zu kaufen.
Im Gegensatz zu den Gold Ketten, ohne Aufpreis, zum Tageskurs, der täglich in den Tageszeitugen veröffentlicht wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

November 15 - Gold $320.30 up $2.70 - Silver $4.57 up two cents

Gold Comes Right Back

It would appear that The Gold Cartel is in serious trouble. For gold to even gain $2.70 so soon after the trashing it took on Wednesday is most remarkable – nothing sensational, but a rare event. As it was, Goldman Sachs took on all comers at $321, basis the December contract, to keep gold within the $2 rule range. Had this veteran cabal member not been there to hold the fort for the rest of the cartel, my sources tell me gold would have closed at least $4 higher.

The open interest liquidated 2,000+ contracts on Thursday, but the bulk of what was put on Tuesday remains intact. That would indicate strong hand buyers. Since The Gold Cartel has been the strong hand for 7 years, the norm would be for the longs to exit first (liquidate their positions). However, times are a changin’. Maybe the tide too? If gold rises another $2 on Monday or Tuesday from today’s close, it is the shorts that may be forced to run for the hills first, not the longs. That would STUN veteran gold traders.

The Commitment Trader Report will be construed bearishly by most in the gold world, as the commercials went net short another 22,000 contracts as of last Tuesday (many of those shorts are the cabal). They are net short around 78,500 contracts. The large specs added a net of 17,000 more longs. My view of break down of traders is a contrarian one, as I construe this spec build up to be bullish at this point in time.

The explosive gold move to come is going to occur with the commercials massively short. That is a 100% certainty in my book. We will have what is called a commercial signal failure. Almost all of the great commodity moves of all time occur with these failures. In gold’s case, it will also be a Gold Cartel failure.

Commodity analyst/trader Greg Pickup makes a great point. Man Financial has $20 billion on account for trading. Most of that money belongs to their funds. Years ago $20 billion invested in commodity funds represented the entire industry. Man F and other firms receive this money from SUCCESSFUL fund managers, the large specs. You don’t stay around too long in that field if you lose money for clients. That is why it does not phase me to have the specs mega long. I expect The Gold Cartel to get shorter, and shorter and shorter and THEN BLOW UP!!!!

Yes, the commercials have buried the large gold specs over the years. What can you expect in a rigged casiono? That is why the key to gold is the demise of The Gold Cartel. It might help to also keep in mind that the run-up early this year occurred with the commercials very short.

The gold fundamentals remain explosive. A bullion dealer tells me there are large physical buy orders below $319 that ought to support the market when and if the cabal attacks. It is only a matter of time before the cumulative effect of the very positive gold fundamentals forces The Gold Cartel to surrender to the gold longs. Today’s surprising action suggests that day is not too far off. As oft mentioned in this column, the cabal cycle of beating gold lower continues to decrease. What lasted years, then many months, then a few months, then one month, then weeks, might only last days or one week now. The first few trading sessions next week should give us a clue as to whether a commercial signal failure is not far off.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $3.08, PM $3.06, with world gold at $318.30 and $318.10. Extremely high: and the Indians do indeed appear to be eager buyers below $320. Today the Rupee made a 10 ½ month high; confidence has been boosted by news of possible ratings upgrade by Moody’s. Clearly, the bears have seriously misjudged this, the biggest single buyer of gold in the world. Other physical markets are also active: Reuters in its’ weekly survey of the Far East reports notable activity in Korea and Thailand.

TOCOM had gone back to sleep staying awake just enough to repel an effort to continue NY’s weakening drift on Thursday. Volume halved to the equivalent of 10,901 Comex contracts, the active contract was unchanged, and open interest slipped 310 Comex lots. (NY on Thursday traded 28, 907 lots and open interest fell 2,972 contracts.)

The dealer commentators were unanimously pessimistic today, although Standard London expressed the view that seeing gold below $310 would be "hard to fathom" because "current fundamentals do not support that direction at the moment". To his credit UBS Warburg’s alert analyst smelled a rat:

"The release of the open interest data for Wednesday is rather perplexing. Gold fell yet open interest barely changed, indicating perhaps that as many new shorts as long liquidation was seen."

A point the Gold Conspiracy School had already taken. So today’s surge must have come a (hopefully painful) surprise. Those short have a stronger physical off take to contend with than they appear to have expected. It also looks as if there is a professional buyer in NY.

As usual, of course, there was an explosion of estimated volume: an enormous 16,000 between 10 and 11am to break above $319 spot; 54,000 on the day. In the last six business days, Comex has three times traded over 50,000 contracts. The last time this happened was when the furious effort to break gold down through $300 was defeated in early July (also by India). Perhaps this time the pressure is in the other direction. An important week.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story…

16 November 2002 06:37 GMT

By Andrew Gumbel

Warning that war could plunge world into deep recession.

Cost of toppling Saddam Hussein may run into hundreds of billions of dollars and this time America will have to foot the bill itself.
.

[ThaiGuru]

Eine weitere Meldung zum "wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung" in den USA!

TG



http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAEPZTRL8D.html

Sunday, November 17

No. 2 Retailer of Mobile Homes Cutting 1,700 Jobs, Filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

The Associated Press
Published: Nov 16, 2002

GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Oakwood Homes, the nation`s No. 2 retailer of manufactured homes, says it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and cut 1,700 jobs - about a fifth of its workforce.

The company, which also builds mobile homes, is facing $570 million in debt and has been losing money for the past three years.

"This was inevitable," said Myles Standish, Oakwood`s chief executive. Under a reorganization plan proposed by the Greensboro-based company, bondholders would forgive the debt in exchange for all of the company`s stock.

In its announcement Friday, Oakwood said it would close five plants, in North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee and Georgia, as well as 75 retail locations, most of them in Tennessee and Texas. The move will leave Oakwood with about 120 retail outlets.

The company makes loans to the consumers who buy its manufactured houses. As the economy has soured, Oakwood`s mostly blue-collar customers have defaulted on those loans in increasing numbers, Standish said.

Oakwood`s stock traded at 50 cents before Oakwood suspended trading Friday, down from more than $8 earlier this year. The New York Stock Exchange is set to consider delisting Oakwood shares.

AP-ES-11-16-02 1141EST

[ThaiGuru]

http://finance.canada.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpDxq0d8bmZCWmJa…

The case for gold hitting US$510

Financial Post - Saturday November 16, 2002


By William Hanley

John Ing looks forward to another prosperous year

Café Tuscany is tucked away among the mostly Chinese and Korean restaurants jostling for attention on Baldwin Street in Toronto`s Kensington Market area. When we meet for lunch with John Ing, president of broker Maison Placements Canada Inc., we note this Italian port in an Asian sea is akin to gold as an investment -- something different in a world dominated by paper assets.

Lunch with Ing, Bay Street`s most ardent admirer of gold, is getting to be a regular event on the fall Lunch Money calendar. As usual, and with a lustrous year for gold and the gold stocks he recommended last fall under his belt, he`s ready as always to make a cheery pitch for the barbarous relic, which he concedes has mostly been a lousy investment for more than 20 years but which he now reckons is heading next for US$375 an ounce from US$320.70 now, and then to US$510 some time in 2003.

But first, a little sustenance. Ing talks about his "discovery" of the small and unassuming Café Tuscany, its excellent food and "superb" wines as a gold bug might describe stumbling upon a 10-kilo nugget in the street. An oenophile, Ing pursues fine wines at good prices with almost the passion he has for gold.

Today, he lets proprietor and wine collector David He, a Chinese Canadian whose father does the cooking at Café Tuscany, select a wine that will go well with the linguini marinara we both order. A "fruity" Bordeaux, the `95 La Cardonne cru bourgeois from Médoc, will do very nicely. Something not "too big," he says. And he`s right, though serving Lunch Money a fine wine is somewhat akin to feeding strawberries to a donkey.

Anyway, the food and drink settled on and some chunky cheese-topped bruschetta to start us on our way with the La Cardonne, we`re ready for the gold pitch.

"In a world where value is being questioned -- as in equities -- gold has resurfaced as what it has historically been -- a store of value," Ing declares. And the prospect of a war in Iraq (we lunched before Saddam Hussein gave the green light to UN weapons inspectors) and its attendant risks can only enhance what is a good basic case for owning gold -- 10% of your portfolio for insurance purposes in a risky world.

The twin U.S. deficits -- budget and trade -- make for a promising backdrop for gold, as has the falling U.S. dollar, which has given bullion a lift in the past year.

A year ago when we met and gold was still at US$280 despite the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Ing committed what was "almost heresy" in the gold investing world by telling Maison Placements` clients and anybody else who would listen to buy all or some of 10 junior gold stocks he was recommending because they were "dirt cheap." As a group, they had gained more than 100% by June at the top of the golds market and are still up 57%. By contrast, the price of bullion has risen 17%, and the benchmark Philadelphia gold index is up 25%. Meantime, the Dow Jones industrial average has dropped 20%.

A couple of the junior names have changed, but he`s still recommending clients stick with his "terrific 10." They are:

- Crystallex International Corp.

- Eldorado Gold Corp.

- Claude Resources Inc.

- High River Gold Mines Ltd.

- IAMGOLD Corp.

- Miramar Mining Corp.

- Repadre Capital Corp.

- Northgate Exploration Ltd.

- Philex Gold Inc.

- St Andrew Goldfields Ltd.

Among the senior producers, he favours Newmont Mining Corp. but continues to prefer mid-caps Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Meridian Gold Inc. and Goldcorp Inc. He also likes Kinross Gold Corp., formerly recommended as a junior, but now making it on to a bigger stage through its merger with Echo Bay Mines and TVX Inc.

Another underlying story with gold, besides the flight from paper assets into real assets, Ing is saying as we set about the spicy linguini marinara, is that demand continues to outstrip supply, with the investing demand more than offsetting the drop in jewellery demand and central banks refraining from selling their reserves.

The big companies have been paying lip-service to exploring for new gold deposits, he says, but they`re not really looking for gold. "Mostly they`re doing development work. You can`t find these big deposits if you don`t explore. Producers need big projects to grow. Otherwise, you`re just going downhill and you get penalized by the investors."

A shortage of deposits with five million to 10 million ounces of gold make the move to increased exploration and a continuing consolidation of the industry both inevitable. Which should be good for the juniors and the mid-caps.

Another industry trend, the hedging of forward production, is also out of favour with investors. So the big hedgers like Barrick Gold Corp. have been reversing their hedge positions.

Ing maintains the stock market is still overvalued, even though it`s 20% lower than it was a year ago when we last met for lunch. "The conventional bullish view is that the market is a good buy. The bear market has lasted too long and that at 15 to 16 times forward earnings is reasonable value. In the Great Depression it was five to six times earnings, and in the `70s it was 10 times. The view now is based on the expectation of strong growth. I don`t see that."

What he does see is that the price of gold and the level of the Dow, which were even in the gold bull market of 1980 around 850, should be more in line. At the top of the equity bull market in 2000, the Dow at 11,700 traded at roughly 45 times the price of gold. If it were to trade at, say, 10 times, Ing says, gold might be at US$500 and the Dow at 5000, from 8579 now. "I`m not saying the Dow`s going to 5000, but it`s not preposterous."

The bottle of the splendid La Cardonne is just about finished, making way for an espresso.

We allow as how our guest must have done very well indeed from the big gains in the 10 junior gold stocks. But Ing says he doesn`t own any of the stocks he recommends to his institutional clients to avoid conflicts of interest.

"I prefer to buy gold bullion physically," he says, rather than own the certificates. Spoken like a true gold bug.

Now, a fine lunch at Café Tuscany over, John Ing heads back to his office downtown on Bay Street to work on his latest report for clients, cheekily, but appropriately titled "My Big Fat Gold Forecast."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Samstag 16.11.2002, MEZ 19:19

Islam Finanz: Herausforderung für die Schweiz

Das islamische Bank- und Finanzwesen hat Aufwind. Auch in der Schweiz werden islamische Banken aktiv, und seit kurzem geschäftet die UBS Tochter Noriba schariakonform in Bahrein.

Die Banken-Kommission sieht trotz Kritik noch keinen Handlungsbedarf.


.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=AN4LMEN…

Exporters Welcome Weaker Dollar

November 16, 2002 11:01 AM ET

By Susan Kelly and Kyle Peterson

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The weaker dollar is cause for a rare bit of cheer in the long-suffering U.S. manufacturing sector, but exporters say the overvalued U.S. currency has much more room to fall before the global playing field is leveled.

"I just don`t see a manufacturing turnaround until we get the dollar fixed," said Frank Vargo, vice president for international economic affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers.

U.S. automakers have long complained a strong dollar gives their European and Japanese rivals a pricing edge, enabling them to sell vehicles more cheaply here while hurting the American companies` ability to compete in overseas markets.

But the dollar has shed about 15 percent of its value against a trade-weighted currency index =USD , from a yearly peak in January, a factor that has enabled budding, yet tentative, optimism in the manufacturing sector.

General Motors Corp. GM.N Vice Chairman Bob Lutz this week applauded the weakening dollar, saying the trend was helping the U.S. automaker compete better against foreign imports on its home turf.

Manufacturers, from small machine tool makers to diversified conglomerate 3M Corp. MMM.N , also say the dollar`s slide this year against the major foreign currencies has helped their bottom lines.

Now many are rooting for the downward momentum to continue, in hopes of kick-starting the moribund U.S. factory sector.

"Another 15 percent would put us at a reasonable range," said Vargo, who is part of a coalition of 60 manufacturing groups lobbying the Bush administration to set a policy that would let the dollar fall under the weight of economic forces.

WHITE HOUSE STILL FAVORS STRONG DOLLAR

Although White House and U.S. Treasury officials publicly state their support for a strong dollar, they have done little to stop its decline this year, leading some market watchers to believe the administration has weakened its stance in favor of a more hands-off policy.

That`s good news for beleaguered U.S. manufacturers that have lost share to foreign competitors as the dollar soared to ever-higher levels in the late `90s.

"The underlying economics suggest the dollar should be much weaker," said Mustafa Mohatarem, General Motors` chief economist. "We have a trade account deficit that is approaching 5 percent of GDP. That tells you your currency is too strong."

Analysts said the strong dollar policy, created by former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, was unlikely to change soon. It was intended to boost the spending power of U.S. importers, not the competitiveness of manufacturers, which contribute only about 18 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product.

"They are heard, but it`s not a market driver," said Tim Mazanec, currency analyst at Investors Bank and Trust Co.

He said U.S. business will see more robust growth when the global economy picks up. Until then, exchange rates will not factor heavily into the health of the factory sector, he said.

So far this year the dollar is down about 10 percent against the yen JPY= from its peak in January. The dollar currently buys about 120.35 yen. It is off about 14 percent versus the euro EUR= One euro equals about $1.0086. When the dollar peaked in February, it was about 30 percent above its 1997 levels.

GM`s Mohatarem argues the dollar ought to trade closer to 100 yen and around $1.10 to $1.15 against the euro.

"To the extent that we as a country would like to stimulate our economy and the manufacturing sector, the most effective stimulus would be a weaker dollar," he said.

STRONG DOLLAR TOOK A TOLL ON U.S. EXPORTERS

Timothy Brown, export sales manager for privately held Mereen-Johnson Machine Co., said the strong dollar caused export business to plunge at his company, a maker of industrial woodworking machines. Exports slumped to just 5 percent of sales from 25 percent five years ago.

"We viewed Europe as a fairly attractive market in the mid-90s. That changed drastically when the value of the dollar changed so much," Brown said.

Recently, however, interest from European customers has started to pick up again. He believes his overseas competitors have had to raise their prices because of the stronger euro.

"It certainly makes us more competitive for exporting, and puts pressure on our European competitors who come into the country," Brown said.

But he said the weaker dollar is a double-edged sword, however, because it boosts the cost of parts purchased abroad.

Global manufacturers try to blunt the effects of unfavorable exchange rates by building production plants overseas and using financial hedging strategies.

"We are increasingly moving costs outside the United States as a natural hedge," said 3M spokesman John Cornwell.

With more than half of 3M`s sales generated overseas, the company is increasing its manufacturing and research presence in those countries where its sales are growing, Cornwell said.

The company, whose products range from Post-It notes to industrial adhesives, is also increasing the amount and duration of its hedge positions in foreign currency markets.

As a result, foreign currency fluctuations shaved 8 cents a share off the company`s profit in the first nine months of the year, down from 24 cents in fiscal year 2001, Cornwell said.

[ThaiGuru]

Wenigstens bleiben Gewinne aus Preissteigerungen beim Gold steuerfrei!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=OGEP0GBS…

Regierung plant pauschale Steuer auf Aktien-Gewinne

16 November 2002 15:21 CET



Berlin (Reuters) - Das Bundesfinanzministerium plant, Gewinne aus Verkäufen von Aktien, Fondsanteilen und Immobilien künftig generell und pauschal zu besteuern. Nach Einschätzung von Finanzexperten würde dies Aktien und Immobilien weniger attraktiv machen, was vor allem angesichts der immer notwendiger werdenden privaten Altersvorsorge problematisch sei.

Die Pläne von Finanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) sehen nach Angaben aus Regierungskreisen vom Samstag vor, eine pauschale Steuer von 15 Prozent auf Gewinne aus solchen Verkäufen zu erheben. Sollte das Kaufdatum vor Inkrafttreten der neuen Regelung - voraussichtlich der 21. Februar 2003 - liegen, solle auf den Erlös eine Steuer von 1,5 Prozent erhoben werden.

Eine Sprecherin des Finanzministeriums bestätigte die Angaben indirekt: "Das geht in der Tat in die Richtung, die gedacht wird im Haus. Aber es ist ein Vorschlag, der morgen erst beraten wird und insofern noch kein Ergebnis bedeutet."

Derzeit müssen Gewinne zum persönlichen Einkommenssteuersatz versteuert werden, wenn bei Aktien zwischen An- und Verkauf weniger als ein Jahr und bei nicht selbst genutzten Immobilien weniger als zehn Jahre liegen. Nach der Bundestagswahl hatten SPD und Grüne eine generelle Steuer auf Gewinne zum persönlichen Steuersatz aller - auch bereits vor Jahren gekaufter - Aktien, Fondsanteilen und Immobilien ins Gespräch gebracht. Dabei sollten Kontrollmitteilungen der Banken an die Finanzämter eingeführt werden. Nach heftiger Kritik waren SPD und Grüne davon abgerückt und hatten bei Aktien eine Verlängerung der Frist auf fünf Jahre genannt, die mindestens zwischen An- und Verkauf liegen muss, um einer Besteuerung zu entgehen.

In den Kreisen hieß es am Wochenende, es sei weiterhin vorgesehen, Gewinne in der Lohnsteuererklärung anzugeben und nicht etwa solche Daten bei Banken direkt zu erheben. Auch bislang schon gibt es diese Regelung. Da das Finanzamt aber kaum Möglichkeiten zur Überprüfung der Angaben hat, haben manche Anleger in der Vergangenheit ihre Gewinne nicht angegeben.

Das Magazin "Focus" hatte vorab ebenfalls über Planungen für entsprechende Steuersätze berichtet. Darüber hinaus hatte es geheißen, Eichel plane auch, dem Finanzamt Einblick in Konto- und Depotbewegungen von Anlegern aus zurück liegenden Jahren zu ermöglichen, wodurch Anleger, die in der Vergangenheit ihre Gewinne nicht versteuert haben, nachträglich zur Kasse gebeten werden könnten. Dies bestätigte die Sprecherin des Finanzministeriums nicht. "Solche Details sind überhaupt nicht diskutiert worden." Als "abwegig" bezeichnete sie zudem die Darstellung des Magazins, es sei geplant, Gewinne mittelfristig auch mit Sozialabgaben zu belegen.

Zu der nun von Eichel geplanten Besteuerung von bereits vor dem Inkrafttreten der neuen Bestimmungen erworbenen Besitz sagte die Sprecherin des Ministeriums, eine Pauschalsteuer von 1,5 Prozent auf den Verkaufserlös wäre verbraucherfreundlich, da nicht Nachweise etwa über Anschaffungen für teils Jahrzehnte zurück liegende Geschäfte geführt werden müssten. Sollte ein Anleger nachweisen, keinen Gewinn erzielt zu haben, müsse er auch keine Steuern bezahlen. Zudem sei auch unter der neuen Regelung weiterhin geplant, dass Gewinne mit Verlusten innerhalb der Einkommensart verrechnet werden könnten.

Andreas Scheuerle von der Deka-Bank äußerte sich kritisch zu den Plänen. "Das ist ein gehöriger Nachteil, wenn Aktien und Immobilien künftig generell versteuert würden." Dies sei vor allem bedenklich, weil diese Anlagen eine wichtige Rolle bei der privaten Altersvorsorge spielen würden, die in Zukunft immer wichtiger werde. Zwar sei der Steuersatz von 15 Prozent nicht extrem hoch. "Aber die Attraktivität für Immobilien und Aktien wird schlechter." Besser wäre eine Verlängerung der Spekulationsfrist auf zum Beispiel fünf Jahre, wie sie SPD und Grüne zuletzt diskutiert hätten.

Volker Nitsch von der Bankgesellschaft Berlin sagte, die Pläne könnten auch für die Konjunktur schädlich sein. "Das sind im Grunde ja Steuererhöhungen." Zudem werde das Steuersystem durch die Neuregelung komplizierter. Nitsch kritisierte die geplante "Quasi-Freiwilligkeit" der Gewinnangaben. "Das appelliert weiter an die Steuerehrlichkeit. Aber die ist relativ gering." Daher würden die Einnahmen mit dieser Regelung wohl geringer als bei Kontrollmitteilungen der Banken sein.

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn sich Pöhl und Welteke nicht einig über den Zustand der deutschen Wirtschaft sind, wundert es mich nicht, dass die regierenden Politiker sich auch nicht einig sind, was Deutschland hilft, und die Wirtschaft wieder zum florieren bringen kann.

Gruss

TG



http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=QGVCYSG2…

Kontroverse über Geldpolitik und Stabilitätspakt

16 November 2002 13:27 CET



Berlin (Reuters) - Der europäische Stabilitätspakt und die Rolle der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) ist unter amtierenden und ehemaligen Notenbank-Vertretern umstritten.

Bundesbankpräsident Ernst Welteke und EZB-Ratsmitglied Sirkka Hämäläinen verteidigten am Samstag auf einer Konferenz in Berlin den Vorrang der Preisstabilität als Ziel der Geldpolitik. Der ehemalige Bundesbankpräsident Karl Otto Pöhl verlangte dagegen von der EZB mehr gesamtwirtschaftliche Verantwortung und bezeichnete den Stabilitätspakt als Fehlkonstruktion.

ROLLE DER EZB BEI WACHSTUM UMSTRITTEN

Die Notenbank dürfe sich nicht als Akteur außerhalb der übrigen Politik verstehen, sagte Pöhl auf dem Europa-Forum der BMW-Stiftung Herbert Quandt. "Die Entpolitisierung des Geldes, der Geldpolitik, ist nicht etwas, was der Realität entspricht." Schon die Bundesbank sei nicht allein der Preisstabilität verpflichtet gewesen, sondern zu einem Beitrag zu Wachstum und Beschäftigung, sofern die Preisstabilität nicht gefährdet war.

Auch die EZB ist zur Förderung der Wirtschaft verpflichtet, sobald Preisstabilität erreicht ist. Die Notenbank wird 2002 im dritten Jahr in Folge ihr selbst gestecktes Ziel stabiler Preise mit einer Jahresteuerung von weniger als zwei Prozent verfehlen. Doch der weitere Rückgang der Inflation von derzeit 2,2 Prozent gilt inzwischen als sehr sicher, und die EZB wird nach Einschätzung vieler Beobachter bald die Zinsen senken.

Auch Pöhl empfahl der EZB, mit einer Zinssenkung einen kleinen Beitrag zu mehr Wachstum zu leisten, auch wenn das allein der schwachen Konjunktur nicht helfen könne. Inflation sei derzeit nicht das Hauptproblem, sondern eine lange währende Stagnation der Wirtschaft.

"Ich möchte nicht ausschließen, dass wir uns direkt in eine Rezession hineinbewegen", sagte Pöhl mit Blick auf Deutschland und warnte vor Deflationsgefahren.

Bundesbankpräsident Welteke widersprach, die EZB wäre zu politischen Kompromissen gezwungen, wenn sie andere Aufgaben als die Garantie der Preisstabilität übernehmen müsse. Die Geldpolitik würde dadurch weniger wirksam. Die Notenbank könne nur als unabhängige Institution mit der Ausrichtung auf Preisstabilität zu guten Wachstumsbedingungen beitragen. Hämäläinen mahnte, wenn die Notenbank Strukturprobleme lösen oder gezielt die Konjunktur abnkurbeln sollte, könnten sich Politik und Privatwirtschaft aus der Verantwortung stehlen. Jedem Versuch einer Rückkehr zur Geldpolitik der 70er und 80er Jahre, die mit den Leitzinsen das Wachstum direkt steuern wollte, müsse widerstanden werden. "Die furchtbare Instabilität der 70er, 80er und frühen 90er Jahre hat uns gelehrt, dass das Einsetzen der Geldpolitik für mehr Wachstum mittelfristig zu weniger Wachstum geführt hat", sagte Hämäläinen.

PÖHL: STABILITÄTSPAKT IST FEHLKONSTRUKTION

Auch zum Stabilitätspakt gingen die Meinungen auseinander. Welteke forderte eine strikte Einhaltung des Vertrags, der den Abbau der Staatsverschuldung zum Ziel hat und Konflikte zwischen Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der Währungsunion verhindern soll. Die Währungsunion solle nicht das Risiko einer zu nachlässigen Anwendung des Pakts eingehen. Am Pakt dürfe nicht gerüttelt werden, schon die Diskussion über eine flexible Ausrichtung sei "außerordentlich gefährlich und vertrauensmindernd".

Amtsvorgänger Pöhl sagte dagegen: "Ich habe den Stabilitätspakt von Anfang an für eine Fehlkonstruktion gehalten". Das Defizit-Kriterium von drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts sei falsch, besser wäre als Ziel ein Rückgang der Staatsquote. "Es wäre eigentlich das richtige Ziel, dass die Kreditfinanzierung des öffentlichen Haushalts nicht höher sein sollte als die Investitionen".

Ehemaliger und derzeitiger Bundesbank-Chef waren wie auch viele Wirtschaftsexperten uneins, ob Deutschland eine Deflation droht.

Pöhl zufolge gibt es hierzulande auffällige Parallelen zu Japan, das seit Jahren mit einem schädlichen dauerhaften Rückgang des Preisniveaus zu kämpfen hat. Welteke widersprach: "Ich glaube nicht, dass wir in Europa ein Deflationsszenario ähnlich wie in Japan haben." So halte er das europäische Bankensystem, anders als das japanische, für stabil. Eine Krise im Bankensystem kann zu einem Rückgang der Kreditvergabe führen und eine Deflation mit auslösen. "Grundsätzlich halte ich das Bankensystem in Europa für gesund und in der Lage, mit seinen Problemen selbst umzugehen", sagte Welteke.

[silvo]

Zu Welteke: Er wird in die Geschichte als Totengräber der Wirtschaft eingehen

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Sonntag 17.11.2002, MEZ 06:50

Venezolanische Armee übernimmt Kontrolle über Polizei von Caracas.

CARACAS - Die venezolanische Armee hat am Samstag die Kontrolle über die Polizei in der Hauptstadt Caracas übernommen. Zuvor war es zu Zusammenstössen zwischen Angehörigen beider Gruppen gekommen.

Innenminister Diosdado Cabello ordnete an, dass die rund 13 000 Polizisten von Caracas nicht länger Bürgermeister Alfredo Pena, einem der führenden Gegner von Präsident Hugo Chávez, unterstehen sollten. Soldaten und Mitglieder der paramilitärischen Nationalgarde übernahmen die Polizeiwachen.

Die Nationalgarde patrouillierte in den Strassen von Caracas, an wichtigen Plätzen der Stadt bezogen leichte Panzer Stellung.

Am Dienstag waren bei Zusammenstössen zwischen demonstrierenden Polizisten und Anhängern von Chávez zwei Menschen getötet worden. Die städtischen Polizisten demonstrieren seit über sechs Wochen für die Auszahlung ausstehender Löhne. Die Opposition fordert seit langem den Rücktritt von Chávez und die Ausschreibung von Neuwahlen. 170532 nov


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell111802.html



Russell On Gold

Yeah, I`m talking about gold

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
18 November, 2002

Extracted from the 15 November, 2002 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

With all this debt piling up, with all the new credit being created -- and with the threat of increasing bankruptcies looming, there will be an increased desire for something intrinsic, something that isn`t created out of debt.

Yeah, I`m talking about gold.

And what do you know -- I`ve been having new thoughts about the gold situation. The new thoughts are that I don`t think serious gold buyers are at all anxious to see gold surge to new highs -- at least not at this time. No, I think gold is under serious, quiet ACCUMULATION, and the accumulators are actually hoping that gold "takes it slow."

One of these groups is the gold mines who are still hedged and who are anxious to get rid of their hedges. The last thing these mines want is a booming gold market at this time. Another group is the "silent accumulators," those who see the writing on the wall, and who are quietly buying gold at what they consider "dirt cheap" prices. A third group is the gold banks who have a huge short position in gold. Still another group are the Commercial shorts, part of these, of course, are the gold banks.

The two immediate upside targets for Dec. gold are 325 and then 330. I don`t think gold buyers are anxious to see those two targets bettered today or tomorrow. No, they`d rather accumulate gold at dirt cheap prices.

Newmont, I believe, will be the blue chip of the gold share universe. This is the stock that the funds will eventually buy. Newmont is the world`s largest producer of gold, and the stock has outstanding management. NEM is removing the hedge position that it inherited when it bought its Australian company. NEM took a sharp break on Nov. 12, but the stock held well above its last decline low.

Every subscriber should own some shares in NEM.

Russell Comment on the Dollar-- The greatest mystery of all is what keeps the dollar from collapsing. One theory is that the dollar is a lousy currency, but all the other currencies are worse.

Another theory is that there`s been so much borrowing against the dollar that the dollar is in a sort of giant universal short squeeze. With unbelievable amounts of debt in existence, everyone needs dollars to carry their debt.

Speaking of debt, check this out. New York City has a deficit of $1 billion this year and over $6 billion for next year. According to today`s New York Times, this is what the City faces -- "Mr. Bloomberg wants to close next year`s $6.4 billion gap with the $1 billion in income taxes from commuters; $2.3 billion from the higher property taxes; the $800 million surplus from this fiscal year; $1.1 billion in cuts in city agencies; and $1.2 billion in actions requiring the approval of the state and federal government and the city`s labor unions."

Escape to California? You think California is any better? The state of California budget deficit for next year is estimated at $21 billion, up from an earlier estimate of $ 10 billion. How is this monster deficit going to be financed. I`m afraid to find out. To live in California you have to love it. To live in New York City you have to be out of your mind.

What does it all add up to? It adds up to rising unemployment. As for the great productivity that Greenspan keeps talking about, what it really means is that you fire workers and let the remaining workers make up the difference. The Chinese squeeze on US pricing power means that the way to hanging on to profits = fewer workers doing more. Greenspan calls it rising productivity. I call it rising unemployment.

More follows for subscribers. . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
15 November 2002
© Copyright 2002 Dow Theory Letters, Inc

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.latintrade.com/newsite/content/archives.cfm?Story…

GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS

Central Bank Siege

November, 2002

As the crisis in Venezuela deteriorates at the end of 2002, Diego Luis Castellano, president of the Central Bank in Venezuela, fights to preserve the country’s financial stability. Worse yet, the growing conflict between the government’s goals and the austere policies of the Central Bank puts the financial institution’s independence to the test. Mike Ceaser, Latin Trade correspondent in Venezuela, speaks with two of Castellano’s close collaborators, Central Bank directors Domingo F. Maza Zavala and Bernardo Ferrán.

How serious is Venezuela’s fiscal situation?

Maza: Very serious. First, because the tendency of public spending is to grow, and fast. In 2002 the budget approved by the National Assembly was 26 billion bolivars. However, it later proposed a 7% budget cut and an increase of income through taxes. What was achieved by this? The deficit has decreased a bit, but it has not disappeared. The budget forecasted for 2003 will reach 36 billion bolivars, an increase of almost 50%. Part of that is to pay public debt service. Part is for municipalities and states. Another part is for contractual obligations that cannot be ignored.

How will the government obtain the funds?

Maza: Petroleum contributes 40% [of the public budget]. The other 60% must be generated by taxpayers. But there is no tax policy in place because they believe petroleum pays for it all. It is estimated that tax evasion reaches 60%. If there were no fiscal evasion there would be no fiscal deficit.

The government will increase its debt to help finance itself?

Maza: If there were a positive image of Venezuelan politics, of the existing regime, of the behavior of the country as such, the doors to international markets would be open to the state.

Ferrán: Especially because we have a perfect payment history. External debt is approximately 20% of GDP. Internal debt is close to 9%. The total is approximately 30%. It is less than other countries, which should indicate that we can take on more debt. We have another asset, which is the safety net of oil prices.

How has the financial situation affected the behavior of Chavez’s government?

Maza: It hasn’t helped. The political message is a bit contradictory and there is no clear definition of the political economy. If there were a political message within normal democratic terms, if there were a profile of the political economy geared towards a social economy, a market economy, confidence in investors, security, property guarantees and protected opportunities, Venezuela would be different. Some of the government’s measures are tinged with neoliberalism. Even so, the message, the words, are just the opposite. It does not instill confidence.

Why aren’t investors buying Venezuelan debt?

Ferrán: Because investors are observing a tense political situation. But the economic potential in the country is considerable. We have reserves in oil, natural gas, iron, nickel, asphalt, etc. Venezuelans living abroad have between US$80 billion and $100 billon. If they were to bring back only 20% of that, the situation would be different. The country’s potential is tremendous.

So what will happen?

Maza: There is no private investment. Public investment is not enough. Consumption has fallen. Unemployment has increased. The informal sector is very wide, exceeding more than 50% of the productive sector.



The difficulty in issuing bonds has led to a clash between the government and the Central Bank. Will the bank do something to help the government?

Ferrán: The Central Bank is guided by the law and its final objective, which is the well-being of the population. The Central Bank cannot directly assist the government.

Has the Central Bank been able to maintain its independence?

Ferrán: Even you have said there is a conflict.

Maza: We are an autonomous state institution. We are not part of the government. We have to cooperate so the state can accomplish its goals, which are macroeconomic stability, to propel economic growth and social well-being. There is an obligation called economic coordination, but that does not mean there cannot be a discrepancy that could lead to a conflict.

Does monetary policy limiting currency circulation harm growth?

Maza: No. The financial system has in recent times been a good buyer of public debt. Private sector credit for production is contracted. Another option, the purchasing of foreign currency, is limited by orders of the Central Bank. So the financial system has been buying public credit and already has a significant portfolio. More than 20% of the financial system’s purse is composed of public debt. It is a risk if the government interrupts payment. The other risk is that the service on the debt also accumulates. There is no clear guarantee that the government can properly look after service on the debt.

Are there plans to reduce the banks’s obligatory adjustments?

Maza: It’s an idea, a simple idea. If what is reduced in adjustment terms is applied to public debt titles, then the Central Bank’s autonomy could be compromised because it could be interpreted as directly financing the goverment. However, if there is a voluntary agreement between the government and the financial system ... I don’t know how the Central Bank would enter this accord, because the Central Bank would only reduce adjustments for monetary policy reasons, and not to ease financing for the government.

So it seems that ...

Maza: Also, because if we decide to increase liquidity there could be an increase in demand for foreign currency. We don’t want that.

How far will the bolívar drop?

Maza: No one knows, not even where it is headed this year.

Is the Central Bank willing to intervene in the foreign currency market?

Maza: Yes, when the movements can be interpreted as a speculative upsurge, when we understand that they are sporadic, manipulated movements that are trying to take advantage of the exchange rate.

If President Chávez continues with the same rhetoric until 2006, what prospects does the country have?

Maza: If political discourse continues, if political conflict continues, if social pressure continues, if uncertainty regarding the social and political crisis continues, naturally the impact on the economy will be very serious.

Ferrán: No one can predict that, even if President Chávez remains in power, there will be no reconcilliation, an agreement between distinct sectors. If this happens, if the waters became less turbulent, that would make a big contribution to the economy. Aside from the political conflict, there is a process for institutional change. For example, social security is a very important element for a new situation in the country, because it could lead to a good financial, economic and social atmosphere in the country.

Where does the problem lay? In the government? The opposition? Both?

Maza: In both. That is my personal opinion. I do not speak for anyone else. If the opposition presented a clear, positive alternative, proposed a solution to the country’s problems and acted accordingly, that would notably contribute toward improving the political climate, independent of whether or not Chávez remains in the government. But the opposition does not offer anything, it is empty. That deepens the crisis.

Are we now in danger of falling into another crisis?

Maza: The financial system has strengthened. Emergency mechanisms have strengthened, and there is better capitalization. The Superintendency of Banks has applied norms of prudence and strengthening of the system’s bases.



Author: Mike Ceaser

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/11/18/1118wi369096.htx

Montag, 18. November 2002 Berlin, 00:00 Uhr

Bald fünf Millionen ohne Job?

Die Arbeitslosigkeit wird im Winter dramatisch steigen, sagen Experten voraus. Großunternehmen streichen 120.000 Arbeitsplätze. Wirtschaftsweiser kritisiert Hartz-Konzept

Die Konjunktur lahmt in allen Branchen. Container-Terminal Burchardkai in Hamburg-Waltershof Foto: ddp

Von Peter Hahne

Berlin – Das von der Bundesregierung beschlossene Hartz-Konzept kann die Talfahrt am Arbeitsmarkt nicht bremsen. Der Kieler Wirtschaftsweise Horst Siebert erwartet im kommenden Januar einen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit auf unbereinigt rund 4,4 Millionen. Zählt man die „verdeckte Arbeitslosigkeit“ von 1,69 Millionen hinzu, werden im Winter insgesamt gut sechs Millionen Menschen erfolglos auf Jobsuche sein. „Das Hartz-Konzept ist bei weitem nicht hinreichend, um die Probleme am Arbeitsmarkt zu lösen“, sagte Siebert der WELT. „Ich habe die Sorge, dass wir durch die einseitige Fixierung auf Hartz Politik und Öffentlichkeit die eigentlichen Ursachen für die Arbeitslosigkeit aus den Augen verlieren“, sagte der Wirtschaftsweise. Weil das ursprüngliche Hartz-Konzept von Interessengruppen „zurechtgebogen“ worden sei und Hartz nicht an den zentralen Ursachen für die Arbeitslosigkeit – vor allem der zurückbleibenden Nachfrage nach Arbeit – ansetze, erwartet Siebert kaum Besserung durch dessen Umsetzung.

Der Präsident des Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie, Michael Rogowski, hält einen Anstieg der offiziellen Arbeitslosenzahl auf nahezu fünf Millionen für möglich. Die rot-grünen Maßnahmen zum Stopfen der Haushaltslöcher kosteten kommendes Jahr weiteres Wachstum. „Deshalb wird sich die Lage am Stellenmarkt weiter zuspitzen“, so Rogowski. DGB-Chef Sommer warf dem BDI-Chef daraufhin „unverantwortliches Katastrophengerede“ vor.

Fakt ist, immer mehr Firmen streichen massiv Stellen. Nach Berechnungen der WELT will die Hälfte der 30 großen Dax-Konzerne in den kommenden zwei bis drei Jahren etwa 120.000 Arbeitsplätze abbauen.

Die größten Kürzungen stehen bei der Deutsche Telekom an, bis Ende 2005 fallen in Deutschland 42.500 Jobs weg. Auch für die Beschäftigten von Siemens (16.000 Stellen), der Deutschen Post (15.000), der Bahn AG (20.000) und der Dresdner Bank (10.000) sieht es finster aus (siehe Tabelle). Im Bankgewerbe ist die Situation ebenso dramatisch. Die großen Kreditinstitute haben den Abbau von mehr als 30.000 Jobs angekündigt. Nach Berechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes sind in der Industrie im Laufe des vergangenen Jahres 210.000 Stellen weggefallen. Auch im kommenden Jahr wird sich nach Einschätzung der Wirtschaftsweisen der Stellenabbau in Deutschland auf das produzierende Gewerbe konzentrieren.

Allein in den Dienstleistungsbranchen, heißt es im Jahresgutachten des Sachverständigenrats, dürften per saldo neue Arbeitsplätze entstehen. Bei Handel, Gastgewerbe, Verkehr und in der Finanzbranche sind in den vergangenen zehn Jahren unterm Strich mehr als eine Million neue Jobs hinzugekommen, Tendenz steigend. Dennoch: Der Anteil des Dienstleistungssektors ist mit 28 Prozent der Beschäftigten insgesamt im Vergleich zu anderen Industriestaaten hier zu Lande noch unterentwickelt.

Trübe Aussichten verkünden überdies seit Monaten die großen Branchenverbände der traditionellen Wirtschaftszweige. Im Handwerk sind in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten 300.000 Stellen weggefallen. Allein durch die von der Koalition beschlossene Erhöhung der Sozialabgaben rechnet Handwerkspräsident Philipp damit, dass jeder achtzigste von insgesamt 5,7 Millionen Handwerkern seinen Job verliert. Nach einer Studie des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft wird allein der höhere Rentenbeitrag zu einem Verlust von 60.000 Stellen führen. Geradezu am Boden liegt die Baubranche: Bereits in den vergangenen sechs Jahren haben gut eine halbe Millionen Bauarbeiter ihre Stelle verloren.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/11/18/1118de369156.htx

Montag, 18. November 2002 Berlin, 00:10 Uhr

Koalition mit neuen Not-, Eil- und Korrekturplänen
Pauschalsteuer auf Aktien- und Immobiliengewinne. Rentenbeiträge für Beamte und Selbstständige. Riester-Rente als Zwang.

Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel Foto: ddp

Berlin – Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) weicht von seinen bisherigen Plänen zur vollen Besteuerung von Veräußerungsgewinnen ab. Erträge aus dem Verkauf von Aktien, Fondsanteilen und Immobilien sollen nach seinem Willen künftig pauschal mit 15 Prozent dem Fiskus zugeführt werden. Das Finanzministerium bestätigte gestern einen Vorschlag Eichels in der Koalitionsrunde, die sich am Abend über den Nachtragshaushalt für dieses Jahr und den Gesamtetat 2003 beriet.

Der Vorsitzende des Bundesverbandes deutscher Banken, Rolf-Ernst Breuer, warnte vor einer Abschaffung der geltenden einjährigen Spekulationsfrist. Dies könne sich „überaus schädlich“ auf den Finanzplatz auswirken, warnte Breuer in einem Schreiben an Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD), das dem Nachrichtenmagazin „Focus“ vorliegt. Die Anleger seien „bis an die Grenze des Erträglichen verunsichert“.

Der Steuersatz von 15 Prozent soll laut Eichels Sprecherin für alle Aktien, Fondsanteile und Immobilien gelten, die nach der Beschlussfassung im Bundestag gekauft werden. Vor diesem Stichtag erworbene Wertpapiere und Häuser würden mit 1,5 Prozent des Verkaufspreises besteuert. Eine Spekulationsfrist gibt es demnach generell nicht mehr. Veräußerungsgewinne würden damit unabhängig vom Zeitraum zwischen Kauf und Verkauf steuerpflichtig.

Sozialministerin Ulla Schmidt (SPD) hat unterdessen mit Äußerungen über eine Umwandlung der freiwilligen Riester-Rente in eine Zwangsversicherung für Wirbel gesorgt. Die Grünen gingen am Wochenende auf Distanz, Union und FDP äußerten massive Kritik. Die Ministerin wies die Reaktionen als Missverständnis und als „Sturm im Wasserglas“ zurück. Sie habe lediglich über eine von drei „Optionen“ gesprochen, über die man nach 2010 eventuell nachdenken müsse.

Die Sozialministerin sprach sich aber dafür aus, dass auch Beamte und Selbstständige künftig in die Rentenkasse einzahlen. Eine entsprechende Änderung des Grundgesetzes könne angegangen werden, sagte Schmidt im ZDF. Es wäre gerecht, wenn alle in die Rentenkasse einzahlten, sagte Schmidt. Sie erwarte jedoch starken Widerstand. DW

[ThaiGuru]

Die neusten Nachrichten zur Wirtschaftslage in Deutschland, den USA, Japan, Süd Amerika, etc. sind sowas von ernüchternd, dass es sehr schwer fällt zu glauben, dass die Anleger in der heutigen Zeit, noch an einen substanziellen Wirtschaftsaufschwung, und an dauerhafte Aktienpreiserhöhungen an den Börsen glauben können.

Seit Januar dieses Jahres warne ich die Leser im WBoard davor, was da noch alles an "Ungemach" auf uns Anleger hereinbrechen könnte, und empfehle zur Absicherung, sich mit etwas physischem Gold, und/oder Silber einzudecken.



Wer es bis heute, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, immer noch kein physisches Gold/Silber besitzt, sollte sich nicht wundern, falls es sich eines Tages doch rächen sollte, dies versäumt zu haben.

Bei vielen Anlegern hier im Goldboard, läuten die Alarmglocken schon längere Zeit, und haben sich entsprechend mit Gold eingedeckt, die einen mehr, die anderen weniger. Doch viele jedoch sehen in Gold leider immer noch eine tote Materie ohne Zukunft, und erkennen nicht den Nutzen dieser Edelmetalle, die seit Jahr tausenden ihre Werterhaltungsfunktion bewiesen haben.

Da es nicht mein Interesse sein kann, alle Leser im Board überzeugen zu wollen, werde ich in hier im Gold Board, in Zukunft etwas kürzer treten, und etwas weniger "Hiobs Botschaften" zur Welt-Wirtschaftslage posten.

Nach wie vor jedoch gilt meine Empfehlung "STRONG BUY" zum Gold, und zum Silber, als Langzeit Absicherung. Ebenso Gold und Silber Aktien, sollten meiner persönlichen Ansicht nach auch in keinem Aktien Depot mehr fehlen.


Wer es trotz allen wirtschaftlichen Geschehnissen in den letzten Monaten, immer noch anders sehen sollte; denjenigen wünsche ich ehrlich, dass sie sich durch andere Instrumente der Werterhaltung abgesichert haben, und nicht am Ende dem grössten Irrtum der Menschheit, demjenigen von "Fiat Money", und immer weiter steigenden Aktienpreisen zum Opfer fallen werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, November 18, 2002

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.67, PM $2.49, with world gold at $320.30 and $318.80. Below and above legal import point. Clearly the Indians did not appreciate gold’s unexpected excursion above $320 after their close on Friday.

Despite a newly weak yen – breaking 121 for the first time in ten days – a reeling stock market (The TOPIX index actually made a post Oct 1984 low) and extensive banking system fears:

"The continued fall in major banks underscores deep concerns about the health of the sector and growing expectations the government will eventually have to nationalize a major bank or banks. Amid such fears, UFJ Holdings sank 8.3% to Y99,000. The bank has given up a stunning 46% of its value this month. Mizuho Holdings, the other "megabank" considered most vulnerable by the market, dropped 11% to Y119,000 Monday"

(Nikkei News)

TOCOM did little today. Volume rose only 22.4% to a mere 13,334 Comex equivalent, the active contract went up only10 yen so that $US gold lost 20c from the NY close, and open interest slipped the equivalent of 284 Comex contracts. (NY on Friday was estimated to have traded 54,000 contracts.) Platinum, by contrast, saw a 50% surge in volume as traders responded to the effect of a weaker yen raising local prices.

The reason for the lack of enthusiasm was plain: as Mitsui-H K puts it:

"A flurry of shortcovering succumbed to the consistent offers above 320.50 and market soon lapsed into tight range"

In fact, the last week was rather a good one for the proponents of the view that the gold market is interfered with. No sooner had inveterately negative bullion banker Sogen wheeled out their Economist [e-mail] to splutter:

"Behind the rumors lie fantasies"

"Gold is certainly the only asset that has inspired so many tomes, reports and websites developing the wildest of theories.

One of the most widely known

Because it is includes seemingly rigorous accounting arguments claims that the Fed sold its gold reserves (8,149 tonnes) a long time ago and the stocks declared to the FMI are the result of clever accounting work. All in all, a simple reinterpretation of the lost treasure myth that has been handed down throughout the history of all civilisations and empires."

Belatedly picked up on

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/socgen/PMW1111.pdf -this is far as his argument goes - than the BIS quietly discloses the fantastic growth of gold derivatives in the first six months of ’02, despite the trumpeted cut back in mine activity (http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0211.htm , P5).

Loudly proclaimed long liquidations in Tokyo on Monday and New York on Wednesday turn out, when the data becomes available, not to have been the cause of the abrupt price slumps of those days. All of which strongly justifies Richard Russell (Dean of the News letter industry and, as a market worshipper, no friend of the manipulation thesis):

"I want to say something about gold…since the manipulations and the battle to hold back the price of gold have reached dramatic proportions…there`s a fierce battle going on to control the price of gold. I wrote yesterday about the large contingent which does NOT, for whatever reason, want gold to go higher."

"… this is a bull market in gold and the Commercials now have the problem of trying to manipulate a bull market. They may be able to do it on a temporary basis, but in the end the primary trend will have its way. Bull markets, like bear markets, ultimately must express themselves. It`s obvious that the Commercials do not want gold above 320, and it`s even more obvious that they do not want gold above 325. So the battle lines are drawn and the gold war is on."

"Can the Commercials be defeated? Occasionally, they can. But …the current situation is fascinating in that the Commercials have taken such a strong position against the primary trend of gold …why are certain interests so intent on holding back the price of gold? Some day the whole ugly story will be told. In the meantime, all I can do is try to put the story together to the best of my ability and with whatever market evidence I have at hand"

From "Richard’s Remarks" Saturday Nov 16.

A great deal of weight is currently being placed by the Bears on the fact that the CFTC data shows the bulls almost as committed as they ever get. These numbers, however, are not a law.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[bluemoons]

Der Golddinar: Strategische Antwort auf das Chaos

Malaysia, Iran und andere islamische Staaten erörtern die Einführung eines Golddinar als Handelswährung. Der IWF sieht es mit Grausen.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Goldreservestandard wie 1944
Strategische Notwendigkeit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Die wachsende Sorge, daß die Regierung Bush die Welt in einen permanenten Krieg zu treiben droht, während sie nichts gegen den globalen finanzwirtschaftlichen Kollaps unternimmt, hat eine Reihe von Nationen zu veranlaßt, koordinierte Schutzmaßnahmen vorzubereiten. Eine davon ist der Vorschlag, einen goldgedeckten Dinar zu schaffen, um den Dollar als Handelswährung zwischen diesen Nationen zu ersetzen.

Malaysias Premier Dr. Mahatir bin Mohamad war am 22.-23. Oktober Gastgeber eines Seminars unter dem Titel "Der Golddinar im internationalen Handel". Es ist bereits die zweite größere Veranstaltung der "Organisation Islamischer Konferenzen" (OIC) zu diesem Thema. Bei der ersten Konferenz über "Ein stabiles, gerechtes und globales Währungssystem" im August war ein Abkommen zur Einführung des Golddinar zwischen Malaysia und einigen noch nicht genau feststehenden Partnern für Mitte 2003 angekündigt worden, dem im Laufe der Zeit weitere Länder beitreten sollen. Nun schlug Irans Zentralbankchef Bijan Latif die Einrichtung eines Sekretariats in Malaysia zur Koordinierung der Entwicklung der Politik des Golddinar vor.



Goldreservestandard wie 1944
In seiner Rede verdeutlichte Dr. Mahatir, daß es nicht darum gehe, einen Goldstandard einzuführen (wobei die gesamte Geldschöpfung an die Menge vorhandene Zentralbankgoldes geknüpft wäre), sondern um die Rückkehr zu einem Goldreservesystem à la Bretton Woods. Er erinnerte die Teilnehmer daran, daß sich die Alliierten, als sie sich "in Bretton Woods versammelten, um die Prinzipien des Umtausches internationaler Währungen zum erleichterten Handel untereinander festzulegen, für Gold als Umtauschstandard entschieden."

Am Beispiel des Handels zwischen Malaysia und Saudiarabien verdeutlichte der Ökonom Tan Sri Nor Mohamad Yakcop auf der Augustkonferenz das System: "Malaysische Exporteure werden für ihre Ausfuhren am Fälligkeitsdatum von der Bank Negara, der malaysischen Nationalbank, in Ringgit, der malaysischen Nationalwährung, bezahlt... In ähnlicher Weise werden die Importeure den Gegenwert in Ringgit für ihre Einfuhren an die Bank Negara abführen. Die saudische Zentralbank wird für ihre Im- und Exporte gleichermaßen aktiv. Nehmen wir z.B. an, daß nach einem Vierteljahr der Export von Malaysia nach Saudiarabien 2 Millionen Golddinar betragen und der saudische Export nach Malaysia im gleichen Zeitraum 1,8 Millionen Golddinar erreicht hat, dann wird die saudische Zentralbank für dieses bestimmte Quartal an die Bank Negara 0,2 Millionen Golddinar überweisen. Das kann in der Weise geschehen, daß die Saudis 0,2 Millionen Unzen Gold durch den Kurator ihres Kontos bei der Bank von England über den Kurator des Kontos der Bank Negara in der gleichen Bank transferieren. Das Wichtige aber bleibt hierbei, daß es mit dem Einsatz der recht bescheidenen Summe von 0,2 Millionen Golddinar möglich war, ein reales Gesamthandelsvolumen in Höhe von 3,8 Millionen zu stützen."

Der Schwachpunkt dieses Systems liegt allerdings im Gold selbst, das ein Gegenstand der Spekulation ist, besonders wenn es an eine Währung wie den Dollar gebunden ist, der demnächst wegen des Zusammenbruchs des US-amerikanischen Banksystems abstürzen wird. Dr. Mahatir ist sich dieses Problems bewußt: "Auch der Goldpreis kann manipuliert werden," sagte er, "aber nicht ganz so leicht wie der US-Dollar oder andere Valuten... Spekulation und Manipulation wird nicht so leicht einzusetzen sein, wie wenn eine regionale Währung an den Dollar geknüpft ist... Der Wert eines Golddinar bleibt der eines Golddinar, unabhängig vom Wechselkurs zwischen dem Golddinar und einer anderen Währung. Wenn der Warenwert und die Leistungen sich in Golddinar ausdrücken, bleibt sein Wert gleich, egal, welches Land am Handel beteiligt ist."



Strategische Notwendigkeit
Dr. Mahatir betonte, daß die ökonomische und strategische Krise die Politik des Golddinar vorantreibt. Die katastrophale Lage im Heiligen Land, der Terroranschlag vom 11. September und der drohende Krieg gegen den Irak hätten dazu geführt, daß die Weltwirtschaft nicht mehr wachsen könne, "denn der Westen ist sehr zornig, insbesondere die Amerikaner. So auch die Moslems. Zornige Leute können nicht rational handeln."

Natürlich könne der Golddinar "die Handelswährung aller Länder werden, nicht nur der muslimischen; aber die islamischen Länder sind am besten in der Lage, die Wirksamkeit dieses Systems zu demonstrieren... und im Zuge dessen aller Welt zu zeigen, daß sie mit Stabilität und Frieden wachsen können. Und damit wird mehr gegen feindselige Unterdückung getan als durch unnütze gewalttätige Vergeltungsmaßnahmen."

Auch andere Stimmen warnen, daß die derzeitigen Fehler Washingtons den Bruch mit dem bankrotten IWF-System beschleunigen werden. James Sinclair, Leiter des Bergbauunternehmens Tan Range Exploration schrieb am 28. Oktober im Editorial der Financial Sense Online: "Mir ist zugetragen worden, daß im Falle eines amerikanischen Angriffs gegen den Irak sehr wahrscheinlich mit einer vereinten islamischen Salve gegen den US-Dollar vermittels des Golddinar zu rechnen ist." Die Saudis, so Sinclair weiter, "werden nicht so freundlich sein, wie es die meisten Beobachter glauben, den Dollar dieses Mal zu retten." Sowohl Sinclair als auch Bijan Latif von der iranischen Zentralbank bezeichneten die Einrichtung einer - nach den Statuten des IWF verbotenen - goldgedeckten Währung als "Aufstand gegen den IWF". Sinclair ergänzt: "Die Einführung des Golddinar wäre für IWF und Weltbank der absolute Tiefpunkt."

Andere verweisen auf die Sorge in Saudiarabien, die USA könnten saudische Guthaben einfrieren, was die Saudis nur dazu trieb, den Golddinar als Ersatz für den Dollar einzuführen und, wenn nötig, sogar alle in Dollar ausgewiesenen Kapitalanlagen aufzulösen. Tatsächlich ziehen die Saudis bereits Geld aus Amerika ab, was sich am Anstieg der Einlagen in saudischen Banken im September um 30 Milliarden Dollar zeigt.

Hintergrund ist die Tatsache, daß in den USA seit Monaten eine saudifeindliche Hysterie angeheizt wird. So erklärte Laurent Murawiec am 10. Juli vor dem Verteidigungspolitischen Rat des Pentagons, Saudi-Arabien sei der Verursacher allen Terrors, und forderte den Sturz der saudischen Regierung und anderer arabischer "Diktaturen". Maurice "Hank" Greenberg forderte im Oktober in einem Bericht des Council on Foreign Relations - der führenden Denkfabrik des amerikanischen Establishments - unter dem Titel "Terroristisches Finanzwesen", die Regierung Bush dürfe, auch wenn dies das gegenwärtige politische System in Saudiarabien gefährden könne, nicht länger so tun, "als kooperierten die Saudis, obwohl sie genau weiß, wo sie es nicht tun."

Unter dem Eindruck einer solchen Politik dürften die Saudis und andere kaum einen anderen Weg sehen, als sich aus dem Dollarsystem zurückzuziehen. Dies könnte schon bald zur Einführung des Golddinar unter den islamischen Nationen und weiteren Fortschritten zu einem neuen Bretton-Woods-System führen.

Michael Billington

[ThaiGuru]

November 19 - Gold $318.20 down 60 cents - Silver $4.54 up 1 cent

The Cat and Mouse Gold Option Battle

It was not hard visualizing the PPT orchestra conductor gracefully waving his baton today. Early on gold rallied to challenge $320, the dollar sank swiftly, and the stock market was tagged. That all made sense. The announced US trade deficit was another staggering $38 billion and the CPI was .3%. That is a big number (annualized it is 3.6%) with the Fed Fund rate at 1.25%. We have negative real interest rates in the US that are growing. That is extraordinarily gold friendly and would have gold flying by now if it were not managed by The Gold Cartel. Meanwhile, the world economic news continues to stink up the place (see below).

Unfortunately, fundamentals don’t matter much these days in the short-term, not when the PPT maestro is at work. That is the bad news. The good news for gold, but certainly not the stock market, is they will reign supreme as time goes on.

The Goldman Sachs crowd was hard at work defending its $320 strike price call writing position. It is a large one at 13,000 contracts. Option expiry is the Comex close on Thursday, so they will be hard at work the next two days to keep gold from taking out that strike price on the upside. Mission accomplished during today’s quiet Comex session. Gold went $319.80/$319.90 bid all morning long, basis the bulliondesk.com bids. Each time it did so, gold was whacked back down. The dollar, which rallied on bad news from 104.85 to a closing price of 105.80, made the goons task that much all the easier. Nothing like a little help from your friends!

Don’t get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with defending a position. But, when it’s done year after year in collusive fashion with the help of the US Government, it is very wrong and un-American.

The dollar has held the 104+ area several times giving technicians some hope. I can’t see this hope trade lasting too long. Then again, buy yen with a Japanese banking horror story hitting the press on a daily basis???

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C2

The AM Fix was $319.80, the PM $319.70 – but, as has been the case for so many years, the cabal crowd then took gold lower in the US.

By the close today, the news was not good for the stock market bulls. The DOG was tagged for 19 and closed at 1374 – 1400 is fading fast. The DOW could not hold 8500, closing at 8475 and the S&P failed to hold 900, closing at 897. Dark days are a comin’ for conned and misled stock market long-term investors.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.16, PM $2.44, with world gold at $319.20 and

$319.50. Comfortably above legal import point. Standard London sensibly commented this morning – e.g. before NY’s poor close –

"On the charts gold is holding …but the failure to move higher yesterday (Monday) may leave it vulnerable to liquidation, although fundamental traders will view any technically driven weakness as a good buying opportunity."

which is certainly what the Indian premiums are suggesting.

TOCOM continued uninspired, with volume virtually static at the equivalent of 13, 023 Comex lots and an 853 Comex lot fall in open interest. (NY yesterday traded 25, 355 contracts and saw open interest rise 725 lots.) However, this was with a motionless yen, which was 121.01 when TOCOM closed. Subsequently in NY the yen has dropped over 1%. Dow Jones reports Japanese bullion traders bemoaning the lack of gold buying by their public on bankruptcy fears, which they attribute to confidence the Government’s deposit guarantee. Historically, this type of support to bullion is very rare. Far more common is help from buying on TOCOM by speculators interested in shorting the yen (there are no FX futures in Japan). This may be about to happen, a point also envisaged by Greg Weldon in his remarks yesterday.

Standard London (having a good day) also identified the current problem in the gold market, which most bullion bank commentators can only hint at:

"Although oil rallied nearly 5% on Iraq war fears, gold failed to move higher and it appears there is a willing seller(s) above $320.00 capping the upside for now."

Which is being done, significantly, without moving lease rates. In NY’s afternoon, this seller or his accomplices took advantage of an abrupt spike in the dollar to raid the gold market. Given the likely response of the Indians and, quite possibly, the Japanese via TOCOM – the yen being little improved – this effort is likely to prove disappointing.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Ex-bullion banker Laurie McGuirk from Aussie Land:

Latin America is a tinderbox just waiting for ignition. Which match will it be. Inflation, unemployment, interest rates, violence, currency collapse, corruption, external interference blah, blah, blah... pick a country, any country (I think Venezuela would be my pick, judging by the Miss World Contestants.... as good a criteria as any, I think)... Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Uruguay all banking troubles of one sort or another, interest rate rises in some, violence and strikes in others. The International Banks with very large exposures down there, from the US, Europe and Asia (even Australia!),will all see a pile of dollars get smoked soon... and dont even think about IMF/World Bank stuff... they are part of the bloody problem!

Isnt it amazing how some of the biggest, best known branded companies in the world, the "untouchables" of years gone by, are getting hammered around the traps, for a myriad of differing reasons...US Icons such as GE, JPM, Ford etc... u name it, the list goes on a lot longer but u get the drift... imagine 20, 10 or 3 years ago and someone suggested that GM would be on the brink of Bankruptcy and JPM would have its head shoved so far up its arse, it wont see sunshine for a few years, if at all. It hasnt really started I suppose for the banks, all of `em, globally... some big corporate failures are still to come, just a matter of time, pressuring the banks and in some cases it will be too much. Ford giving cars away for free just to generate "sales", and GE as the largest non-financial institution, non-regulated derivatives bucketshop in the world .....blah, blah, blah.... these are supposed to be the "kings" of their fields etc... blue chip?.... blue cheese....

The inflation/deflation numbers(rather the inaccurate formula for deriving something purporting to replicate the cost of living)came out today with CPI coming in exactly as economists expected...wow, surprise me. My 3yr old could`ve got that correct! The money supply is expanding while GDP and production is contracting...thats called inflation. I dont care what CPI says... look at M1,M2,M3 AND MZM and you will see the Inflation. The taps turned on in 1995 and hyperspaced (remember the old hyperpace button on Asteroids?) in 1999/2000 through now... its all just gone to a levitating Dow 30, Housing and Real Assets not to the price of Jeans and T-shirts,Fridges or cars. Plus trying to re-inflate the tech debacle... keep those printing presses rolling!

LM


www.lemetropolecafe.com

[heilerlein]

gold down , down, donwn

und guru auf - seinem- Programm - Schwule unter sich -
in Thai -Land

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@Heilerlein

Down-Syndrom? (Auch bezeichnet als Trisomie21 oder Mongolismus ...)

[Waschbr]

New York, 18. November (Bloomberg) - Obgleich der Eigenheimmarkt im den USA weiterhin boomt und auch im dritten Quartal mit 5,36 Mio. verkauften Einheiten die Umsatzzahlen im Jahresvergleich um einen weiteren Prozent gestiegen sind, werden erste Anzeichen einer Trendwende erkennbar: Im Luxussegment - das sind Häuser und Wohnungen mit einem Kaufpreis ab einer Million Dollar aufwärts - sind die Verkaufszahlen um zehn Prozent auf landesweit 4.890 verkaufte Einheiten zurückgegangen.

Der Finanzberater Christopher Apgar bot vor einem Monat sein New Yorker Apartment für 2,15 Mio. US-Dollar zum Verkauf an. Doch die Interessenten für das großzügige Drei-Zimmerappartement mit Bibliothek, italienischer Granitküche und Blick auf das Empire State Building blieben bislang aus.

Vor dem Fünf-Jahrestief des Standard & Poor`s 500 Index am 9. Oktober haben Wohnungen an der Upper East Side mit einer Ausstattung wie dieser binnen Tage den Besitzer gewechselt, da sind sich die Immobilienmarker einig. Der mit Ebenholzintarsien verzierte Ahornfussboden und eine 75 Quadratmeter große Terrasse machen die Wohnung von Apgar zu einer echten Perle. "Ich wünschte, ich hätte die Wohnung einen Monat früher angeboten", sagt Apgar, der seit dem 31. Oktober den Preis auf 1,99 Mio. Dollar zurückgenommen hat. "Dann wäre sie jetzt bereits verkauft". Da sein Sohn jetzt das College besucht, plant Apgar, eine kleinere Wohnung zu beziehen.

Ökonomen erkennen den Anfang vom Ende des Immobilienbooms in Amerika. "Wenn die Verkäufe im Luxussegment sinken, wird bald auch der Gesamtmarkt folgen", glaubt Michael Sklarz, Leiter für Immobilienbewertung bei Fidelity National Information Solutions in Santa Barbara, Kalifornien. "Ein Rückgang im Spitzensegment weist eindeutig darauf hin, dass sich die Preise insgesamt an einem Scheitelpunkt befinden".

Der Nachfragerückgang im Spitzensegment des Immobilienmarktes ist ein erstes Anzeichen dafür, dass wohlhabende Bürger weniger Geld für ihr Eigenheim zahlen wollen oder können. Die Talfahrt an den Börsen - der S&P-500-Index hat seit dem 24. März 2000 bereits 40 Prozent verloren - und der Stellenabbau in der Finanzbranche, der in den vergangen 20 Monaten 65.400 Mitarbeiter den Job gekostet hat, dürften wesentlich dazu beigetragen haben. "Die Bewegungen an der Wall Street werden vom Luxussegment im Eigenheimmarkt nachvollzogen - nur eben mit einiger Verzögerung", erklärt Hall Willkie, Präsident von Brown Harris Stevens, der Makler-Agentur im Stadtteil Manhattan, bei der das Apartment von Apgar zum Verkauf steht.

In New York ging die Zahl der Verkäufe unter den teuersten zehn Prozent des Haus- und Wohnungsmarkts - mit einem Durchschnittspreis von 3,13 Mio. Dollar - im dritten Quartal um 18 Prozent gegenüber dem zweiten Quartal zurück. Die Arbeitslosenquote in der Metropole stieg in der Zeit auf ein Vier- Jahreshoch von 7,9 Prozent. Im Bundesstaat Kalifornien, in dem 65 Prozent aller Luxuseigenheime der USA stehen, ist die Zahl der für mehr als eine Mio. Dollar verkauften Eigenheime um 9,5 Prozent eingebrochen. Der Markt für Eigenheime bricht in der Regel zunächst im teuersten Segment weg, erklärt Sklarz. Denn wohlhabende Menschen kaufen eher aus Lust an Veränderung denn aus Notwendigkeit.

Auch der sich abschwächende Preisanstieg im Gesamtmarkt deutet auf eine Trendwende hin: Nach 8,1 Prozent im ersten Quartal und 7,5 Prozent im zweiten Quartal hat sich der durchschnittliche Kaufpreis eines Eigenheims jetzt um 7,2 Prozent auf 161.800 Dollar verteuerte. Der bundesweite US-Verband der Immobilienmakler erwartet einen Preisanstieg von 4,2 Prozent im kommenden Jahr, was dem Trend der letzten zwanzig Jahre entspräche.

Nach Angaben von DataQuick Information Systems Inc. war der Rückgang von zehn Prozent im dritten Quartal der größte Umsatzeinbruch seit dem vierten Quartal 2001, nach den Terrorattacken auf das Welthandelszentrum in New York. Noch im zweiten Quartal 2002 hatten sinkende Aktienkurse dem Luxussegment ein Umsatzplus von 68 Prozent beschert, da Investoren in der Immobilienanlage einen sicheren Hafen für ihr Kapital suchten. Der Gesamtmarkt, der sich nach wie vor gut behauptet, wird auch durch die niedrigen Zinsen für Hypothekenkredite unterstützt. So fiel der Zins für Hypotheken mit einer Laufzeit von 30 Jahren in der vergangenen Woche auf ein 37-Jahrestief von 5,94 Prozent.

Quelle: http://quote.bloomberg.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/GATA/1037779110.php



Greenspan hints something terrible is happening with derivatives

By Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
11p CT Tuesday, November 19, 2002

The following remarks by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sound like "cover your butt" talk.
* * *

Greenspan Says Central Banks
Must Watch Derivatives

By Michael McKee



WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) --
Governments must be careful not to over-
regulate financial derivatives and central
banks should not give the impression they
will always bail out institutions if those
instruments fail, Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said."


* * *

The whole report on Greenspan`s speech is linked below.

Something is up and this wimp knows it. This is exactly what the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the GATA Army, and Doug Noland of http://www.PrudentBear.com have sounded the alarm about for years.

My guess is that the gold/interest rate derivative neutron bomb is slowly going off. Now that it is too late to do anything about it, Sir Blowhard is speaking out, after blocking any sort of regulation of derivatives while he supposedly was minding the store.

Remember that a GATA delegation consisting of Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell, and myself met with with House Speaker Dennis Hastert at the U.S. Capitol on May 10, 2000, and warned him of a looming derivatives crisis. We gave him a copy of our Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report, which we also gave to U.S. Rep. Spencer Bachus, chairman of the House Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, which has supervision of gold and silver issues. Bachus brought seven staff members to that meeting.

GATA then met with the Dr. John Sylvia, the chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee.

The next day I delivered a copy of the Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report to the office of every House and Senate banking committee member.

The retiring chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Phil Gramm of Texas, is a hack. He refused to acknowledge what GATA had to say. His wife, Wendy, a former chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, was on the Board of Directors of Enron. I could go on and on about our "behind-the-curve" Congress. When it comes to taking on the big-money crowd, they don`t want to hear about it.

No one is more calculating than Sir Blowhard, down to his use of adjectives. This story is no fluke. We are close to the day when all heck breaks lose. Greenspan is close to his day of reckoning.

Buy gold and the gold shares.

Got to be in it to win it!

* * *
Greenspan Says Central Banks Must Watch Derivatives

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk…

By Michael McKee

Previous Articles:
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/GoldSeek/

[Gringo1]

GOLD auf 510 $ !

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/ing112002.html

[ThaiGuru]

Mann sollte sich die von A. Greenspan gemachte Aussage zum Risiko bei den Derivativen mal auf der Zunge vergehen lassen.

Als ich sowas hier im Board vor 9 Monaten im Gold Board geschrieben habe, war die Bezeichnung "Verschwörungstheoretiker" noch geradezu eine Liebkosung.

Doch jetzt sagt es sogar schon A. Greenspan, und der ist ja bekannterweise sehr vieles, aber bestimmt kein "Verschwörungstheoretiker".

Er warnte vor dem Risiko einer "Kettenreaktion" bei den (irrsinnig hohen!) Derivativ (inkl. Gold) Positionen der Banken, und fordert die Regierungen eindringlich auf, diese Derivativ Geschäfte der Banken, nicht zu stark zu reglementieren.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk…

Er befürchtet wohl zurecht, dass dieses selbstzerstörerische Ausmas an Derivativen, dadurch noch schneller zur dieser "entfernten? Möglichkeit" (Aussage A.Greenspan) einer Kettenreaktion (Explosion, Zusammenbruch) führen wird?

!!!

Aussage: A. Greenspan

"At the same time, derivatives` reliance on leverage creates the ``remote`` possibility of a chain reaction of failure, ``a cascading sequence of defaults that will culminate in financial implosion if it proceeds unchecked,`` he said."

!!!

Gold strong Buy!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[jeffery2]

Ich werd verrückt, jetzt ist dieser Schlaumeier vor 9 Monaten der erste gewesen, der irgend etwas gemerkt hat und dafür auch noch gescholten worden.
Wer es aber genau wissen will, der liest was andere vor 19 monaten hier schon gemerkt haben und davon heute kein Aufheben machen.
Ich glaub der Guru will in die Talkshow, als Erstmerker der Verschwörung.
Bäuerchen drauf.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

@Jeffery

Verpiss Dich!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2002/pi20021…

NOVEMBER 20, 2002



SAM STOVALL`S SECTOR WATCH

By Sam Stovall

Why Gold Bugs Are Swarming Again?

A series of positive developments raises rich possibilities for gains in the precious metal -- and for investors

Sam Stovall is chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor`s


Investors are rediscovering gold. And gold-mining stocks` recent strong performance has landed the group back on the list of industries with top Standard & Poor`s Relative Strength rankings. Year-to-date through Nov. 15, the S&P Gold subindex rose 9.1%, vs. a 20.1% decline for the S&P Super 1,500 (the combined S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600).

S&P analyst Leo Larkin maintains a positive investment outlook for gold stocks. He notes that a sharp decline in interest rates since January, 2001, has made short-selling of the metal by producers and market speculators less profitable. Short-selling has been a major negative for gold prices in the past several years.

Larkin has several other reasons for his positive outlook. He says equity markets are less likely to offer as much competition for investment demand. Double-digit rates of return for equities from 1995 through 1999 lured investor dollars away from gold and provided immense competition for the yellow metal.

SHINING THROUGH. Larkin also cites rising commodity prices, reflecting consolidation in commodity-producing industries and a recovery in global economic growth. Through November 11, 2002, the Bridge Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Price Index was up 19.1% after a 16.3% drop in 2001. A rebound in the global economy and large increases in the U.S. money supply should lift commodity prices in 2003, according to Larkin. And that means inflation will still be a factor for investors to contend with -- playing to gold`s traditional role as a hedge against rising prices for goods and services.

As for supplies of the metal itself, Larkin notes that the deficit between gold production and consumption will widen as output declines and demand increases. The low gold prices of the past several years have led to sharply reduced exploration for new mines, and will result in lower production even if the metal`s price rises dramatically.

Also, the agreement by central banks to limit gold sales through September, 2004, to 2,000 tons, including sales by the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England (BOE), removes an uncertainty that plagued the market during the late 1990s. Central-bank sales in preparation for the launch of the European common currency, Australia`s sale of part of its reserves in 1997, and the BOE`s sales announcement on May 7, 1999, all helped depress market prices.

[Magor]

# 3096 / Jeffery
Ist es, außer für Dein Ego, nicht sch .. egal, wer es wann gemerkt hat?
Wie Du siehst, schämt sich ja selbst Greenspan nicht, es erst so spät gemerkt zu haben ...

Wo kann man nachlesen,
was Du vor 19 Monaten schon über die absehbare Schieflage der Derivative geschrieben hattest?

[fiesje]

gruss fiesje

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@fisje

Ja, ich hab schnell ein paar Barren gekauft, weils grad so günstig war! Störts wen?

[Biotechperle]

STRIKE!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4520018&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2002-11-22 16:51 GMT:

Gold Fields withdraws US shr offering due to unfavourable mkt conditions

LONDON (AFX) - Gold Fields Ltd said it is withdrawing the Form F-1 Registration Statement filing to offer shares in the US.

"We decided to withdraw our filing because current market conditions are not favourable," Ian Cockerill, chief executive officer of Gold Fields said.

"In addition, we believe that Gold Fields` shares are currently undervalued compared to our peers. The expectation of an offering at this time placed additional pressure on our share price at a time when, we believe, the outlook for gold is particularly positive," he said.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpDXOuaicrfaTtuLo…

November 22, 2002 12:38

Environmentalists Sue to Block Newmont Mining Corp. Projects

By Tom McGhee, The Denver Post

Nov. 21--Environmentalists have sued to block Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. from expanding a mine and opening a new one in Nevada.

The projects would damage thousands of acres of wilderness and waste 163 billion gallons of water, according to the suit against the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. The BLM approved the projects.

Newmont spokesman Doug Hock denied that the expansion of the open-pit Gold Quarry Mine or the opening of an underground mine near Carlin, Nev., would hurt the surrounding desert.

Great Basin Mine Watch, Mineral Policy Center and the Western Mining Action Project filed the suit in U.S. District Court in Reno, Nev., on Wednesday.

Newmont, the world`s largest gold producer, opened the Gold Quarry Mine in 1985.

The groups argue that the process of removing and disposing of groundwater to keep the mine dry has already drained needed water.

"The projects will lower the water table by between 10 and 1,600 feet over at least 1,000 square miles," the groups said in a statement.

But since it opened, the mine has had less impact on surrounding water sources than the company had originally expected, Hock said.

-----

To see more of The Denver Post, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.denverpost.com

(c) 2002, The Denver Post. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. NEM,

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.business.scotsman.com/industry.cfm?id=1294622002

Thu 21 Nov 2002

Thistle Mining`s gold standard

Andrew Murray-Watson senior business reporter


EDINBURGH-BASED Thistle Mining showed its investment in its South African gold mine was paying off, as it posted record production levels for the third quarter in a row.

The company, which paid $40 million (£25.4 million) for the President Steyn mine in February, said it produced 49,515 ounces of gold - worth $3.4 million (£2.16 million) - in the three months to 30 September.

Thistle said it made a pre-tax profit of $600,000 (£380,000) in the nine-months of this financial year. Group operating profit came in at $700,000 (£444,000).

The company has spent the past six months investing to clean up its acquired South African operations, which had been significantly run-down by its previous owner.

During the last three months, Thistle has identified a significant exploration target known as the Eldorado "Massives". It is understood the hitherto undrilled territory could potentially contain extensive gold reserves.

The company said "black empowerment" in South Africa would play a key role in developing the business. The legislation is designed to reduce the massive wealth gap in the country.

Willie McLucas, president and chief executive of AIM-listed Thistle, said: "The publication of the Minerals Bill and the Mining Charter has focused the attention of international investors on the position of mine workers in the community. The charter calls for worker participation over the next five to 10 years, with such transaction to be at a fair market value.

"It will be Thistle’s intention to introduce a fully developed scheme within the five-year time horizon."

He said Thistle was in exploratory talks with a number of Black Empowerment groups.

The cost for Thistle to get gold out of the ground rose from $245 an ounce to $256 an ounce, due to higher wage costs. Over the same time period, the realised price of gold sold was $330 an ounce.

Thistle said it continues to evaluate the feasibility of commencing operations at its Colorado Pit in the Philippines. It added that it undertook exploration drilling during the last quarter, and that the results will be released "as soon as they are available".

The company’s shares closed down 1 per cent at 24.5p.

[ThaiGuru]

Bitte nicht vergessen Gold zu kaufen!

Goldmünzen sind nach wie vor eine sehr gute Alternative zu Bubble Aktien, und eine exquisite Versicherung gegen Währungsverfall. Zudem sehen sie noch schön aus, und werden in allen Ländern dieser Welt gerne anstelle von *Fiat Money* akzeptiert.

Gibt`s (noch) bei fast jeder Bank, oder beim Münzhändler zu kaufen. Ebenso kann man bei E-Bay manchmal noch günstige Positionen ersteigern. Habe gerade heute wieder, günstig den Zuschlag für ein grösseres Lot Goldmünzen erhalten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

November 21 - Gold unchanged - Silver $4.46 down 8 cents

Fed Pronouncements VERY Gold Bullish

Groundhog Day redux. I have lost count how many days in a row we have seen the same pattern, the last 3 for sure. The AM Fix today was $318.40, the PM Fix $317.65, followed by a lower close in the US. Gold continues to be taken down by The Gold Cartel that operates out of this country. Year in, year out, GATA reports on the same drill, while the gold industry shuts its eyes to a price pattern that is clearly managed, defying all the statistical odds of a free market.

$4.50 was a key strike price for the silver options, which expired today. Therefore, the goons came in and did a hatchet job there too.

ANOTHER Fed Governor spoke out today on the many ways the Fed could combat deflation, if necessary. They are really pouring it on. A dollar devaluation, 1933 style, was even mentioned as a possibility. Of course, gold should be flying for just the fact that Fed is talking this way. However, when a market is rigged, nothing matters in the sort-term. Oh, boy is the gold pressure cooker going to blow, and when it does, it is going to stun everyone!

This gives us a clue as to why the stock market is going bonkers. The Fed has gone way out of its way to tell the investment world they are going to flood the system with money to reflate it. GATA has anecdotal evidence that is JUST THE CASE. From our man at DFW airport:

Subj: MONEY SHIPMENTS
Date: 11/21/2002 7:35:45 AM Central Standard Time
From: bjt

"Its unbelievable! I have never seen so many shipments!"

The CRB, at around 230.5, remains very firm and looks poised to go much higher!

The significant news is the Fedspeak. The way I see it, they are saying the only way for the price of gold to go is UP. They will do anything to prevent deflation from kicking in. They will throw all caution to the wind and put their pedal to the metal, which is just what they are doing right now. The Café’s Dick Slezack sends us his comment along with a link to a speech by Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke:

"If faced with deflation, the Fed intends to simply print money, or in other words monetize US government debt, private mortgage debt, corporate debt, and foreign government debt, until the problem goes away, up to and including a severe devaluation of the dollar that would effectively transfer the assets of foreign dollar holders back to the US, and result in the central bank owning a significant portion of the private assets (homes) of the US.

There are other interpretations of this, but think about the Fed simply printing money to buy debt, like mortgages, corporate bonds, etc. Interest rates of the longer bonds would not rise, because the Fed would simply print dollars to keep buying them at a `pegged` interest rate. What does this do to the dollar? Who exactly ends up owning a significant portion of US `private` assets?"

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002


Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn`t Happen Here

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/200211…

-END-

Ed Bugos of http://www.goldenbar.com had this to say on the latest Fed utterances:


So now when the dollar`s demise accelerates, the Fed will say it devalued the dollar "as Roosevelt did" to FIGHT DEFLATION. This managing of dollar values is suddenly a tool of the Fed`s, the new Fed governor said in an interview with the WSJ, despite years of denying it ambiguously.


Yes, the Fed is the anti-thesis of deflation, but you can be sure that it wasn`t designed to fight deflation, and that as long as it exists - in its current capacity - not only can there not be real deflation, but it`s a red herring to justify the Fed`s existence and take your eye off the ball, or the real reason for their existence, which is purely political.


They claim to be fighting an enemy that cannot be if the dollar is overvalued. And so now when it cheapens, the Fed will take credit for engineering it, rather than admitting that it became unsustainably overvalued due to Fed policies in the first place.

The WSJ has become the Fed`s tout sheet! Gold stock newsletter writers have nothing on these people. The Fed is out of ammunition to sustain the goldilocks type of inflation. The market is going to decide what to do with the dollar not the Fed. As for Roosevelt, he devalued the dollar because it was fixed at the time. The comparison between dollar devaluation today and in 1933 is inexcusably stupid!

Ed Bugos

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report 21.11.02

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.87, PM $3.25, with world gold at $317.65 and $317.70. Well above legal import levels: India is clearly a steady buyer at these prices. The rupee hit another (10 ½ month) demand- facilitating high today.

Today saw the publication of the WGC "Gold Demand Trends" Quarterly. Unfortunately, for (hopefully) inexplicable reasons, compilation of this data has now been turned over to long time rivals Gold Field Mineral Services (GFMS). This is a disaster for information quality in the gold world. It was GFMS’ abrasively arrogant refusal to explicate their statistics almost ten years ago which first alerted independent observers to the profound lack of integrity at the heart of the Gold Industry Establishment.

"World Demand Trends" presented a painful problem for GFMS, since the demand flow data it presented clashed increasingly jarringly with their own gold world balance sheet. Unsurprisingly, they have seized the opportunity to start sandbagging down the consumption statistics of India, the world’s largest buyer. Q3 demand there was down 8.5% Y on Y, on their data, only 1.5% on the traditional WGC basis.

However, they do admit that:

"Notwithstanding the monsoon, all reports indicate that imports in October, when the price again eased slightly, were very strong as the Diwali festival of November 4 approached; buying remained vibrant at the time of the festival."

Which is what the premiums have been saying. In principal, there is no reason why, in times of suddenly high prices like early this year the Indians should compete against new enthusiasts as the Japanese public then were: the point is that they always return, as they have now.

The whole report can be accessed at: http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Gdt/Gdt41/WGC_GDT_Nov_2002…

Given the way the study is currently defined, GFMS was able to ignore the most important development in the gold world this year, the bizarre growth in gold derivatives outstanding, as laid down in the recent BIS survey http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0211.pdf P5.

TOCOM remained uninspired today, with no leadership from the yen (which rallied 16 bps in Japanese time) to offset NY’s dreary performance. Volume fell 31% from Wednesday to the equivalent of 17,621 Comex lots; open interest slipped 47 Comex lots; the active contract fell five yen. (NY traded 27,202 lots on Wednesday: open interest fell 757 contracts.)

In a pattern laid down on Tuesday and repeated today, Comex gold was raided towards the close, falling $1 in the last 30 minutes on a 35% surge in volume. Unless the Indian buyers scale down however, these attacks will achieve little.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

Merrill Lynch Analyst Walter Murphy spricht beim Gold, von einer Kaufgelegenheit einer ganzen Generation!

Merrill Lynch Analyst Calls Gold

"The Buy of a Generation"

Walter Murphy, chief analyst for Merrill Lynch, says gold is the "buy of a generation," and could soon test its $850 highs. He has good reason for his prediction. Every investment signal — both technical and fundamental — is lined up behind higher gold prices. "Gold is looking good on a long, medium, and short-term basis," proclaimed the world-famous Aden sisters.

So pay attention, because the last time analysts were this unanimous over gold was in 1976…just before it hit $850 an ounce. Don’t be left behind.

Learn more by clicking here: http://etools.ncol.com/a/jgroup/bg_wwwgoldcentralcom_wwwnews… for your FREE 2003 Gold Profit Guide from Lear Financial.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

November 22, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled higher at $320.60 an ounce, up $3.40 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold remains supported by rising geopolitical tensions, threats of war, renewed terrorist threats and bullish commodities reports stating a strong fundamental case for gold investment and rising gold prices. Recent comments by World Gold Council president Chris Thompson, Bernard Swanepoel, the CEO of South Africa`s Harmony Gold, Ian Cockerill, president and CEO of Gold Fields, and S&P analyst Leo Larkin (among several others), have stirred some to look at the fundamental case for gold as a class of investment. Dealers cited pre-weekend short-covering, which accelerated on the break above $319.50, with one investment bank seen buying from the lows in spite of a stronger dollar.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $317.70 an ounce, down from $318.20 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold held firm as the U.S. dollar weakened slightly. Meanwhile gold continues to be supported on geopolitical tensions. Few traders were inclined to sell aggressively before the December 8 deadline for Baghdad to submit a full account of all banned weapons to the United Nations or face a U.S.-led war to disarm Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein. "Going into the weekend, the cautious and prudent may try to square up or if they are a little `gung ho`, they might even turn long in case incidents do occur,`` said Standard Bank London said in a report. "With everything else being quiet, gold would probably be held above $317.00 and capped at $320.00,`` it added. "If gold manages to fend off attacks at support levels of $317 an ounce and $315 an ounce for another two weeks, the outlook would change from that of being negative to positive again as major indicators would have had a chance to re-align itself," said Standard Bank in its daily report. "Nobody`s going to want to take anything on ahead of the weekend," said Rory McVeigh, London-based dealer with Mitsuibishi Corp. "We`re expecting a fairly quiet day all round." Also, "dealings overall have been pretty featureless, with strong equity markets and a steady dollar helping to cap the upside, but reluctance among the professionals to trade short ahead of the weekend due to underlying political tensions," World Gold Council analyst Rhona O`Connell told clients Friday. If the dollar and equities make consistent gains, "gold may start to struggle, noted analyst James Moore, with TheBullionDesk.com. But with tensions between Iraq and the U.S. and the possibility of further terror attacks, gold will likely "continue to see a certain amount of fresh investor interest."

Earlier gold rose 10 cents in Hong Kong to $318.35. Spot gold was trading slightly higher late Friday in Asia as limited physical interest lifted the yellow metal in extremely thin volumes before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday next week, market participants said. "I can`t see anything prying gold from its current US$317-$320/oz range for the time being," said a Sydney dealer. Trading across Asia was light, with a bit of demand for physical gold from Japan-based buyers, dealers said. But the interest was not enough to push the yellow metal out of a $0.50 trading range. "If the Dow and the dollar move higher, then gold will be under pressure, but it won`t go too much lower. We should see more demand coming in at $316,`` said C.K. Cheung, dealer at the Bank of China Hong Kong. "There is nothing much to say. Traders and professionals are on the sidelines," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong.

In a recent Business Week article, S&P analyst Leo Larkin notes short-selling of gold by producers and market speculators has become less profitable. Short-selling has been a major negative for gold prices in the past several years. Larkin has several other reasons for his positive outlook. He says equity markets are less likely to offer as much competition for investment demand. Double-digit rates of return for equities from 1995 through 1999 lured investor dollars away from gold and provided immense competition for the yellow metal. Larkin also cites rising commodity prices, reflecting consolidation in commodity-producing industries and a recovery in global economic growth. A rebound in the global economy and large increases in the U.S. money supply should lift commodity prices in 2003, according to Larkin. And that means inflation will still be a factor for investors to contend with, playing to gold`s traditional role as a hedge against rising prices for goods and services. As for supplies of the metal itself, Larkin notes that the deficit between gold production and consumption will widen as output declines and demand increases. The low gold prices of the past several years have led to sharply reduced exploration for new mines, and will result in lower production even if the metal`s price rises dramatically.

In a recent article from Minesite.com the sentiment is well expressed by many in the gold industry. “At the Gold Fields Annual General Meeting earlier this month, Chris Thompson pointed out that exploration was at a very low level and very little new production was coming on stream. As a result reserves were not being replaced and there was bound to be an industry–wide decline in production starting in 2003-4, he predicted. He went on to suggest that the gap between demand and supply might be filled by further sales from central banks. Sure, they might, but a couple of other factors have to be taken into account. First, the bosses of central banks like to keep their jobs. To be seen selling gold into a rising market to the extent that fingers can be pointed and accusations made about unwise investment decisions is not the best way to keep such jobs. Most of them are not as brass necked as Chancellor Brown who still claims, against all the odds, that he did a good job in selling a large slice of the UK’s gold assets at an average price of around US$275/oz. Second, paper currencies are under pressure from threats of war and a continuing economic downturn. In the Far East there is talk of trade financed by a gold Islamic dinar and a gold-backed Chinese currency. In these circumstances most central banks would want to hang on to their gold reserves. And if they decide to do so there is only one way in which the price of gold will move as the demand/supply ratio gets further out of kilter. We live in interesting times.”


GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:

Israeli forces took over Bethlehem on Friday after a Palestinian suicide bomber killed 11 people on a bus, and a British U.N. aid worker was killed in the West Bank city of Jenin. Palestinian doctors said initial reports suggested the man was in his office when he was hit by gunfire after a gun battle broke out between Israeli troops and Palestinian gunmen in Jenin refugee camp. It was not immediately clear who fired the bullet that killed him. Troops swept into Bethlehem in the West Bank before dawn and fanned across the city. Soldiers began arresting suspected militants and sealed off the Church of the Nativity, revered as the birthplace of Jesus, to prevent any militants taking refuge in the church compound as they did during an Israeli incursion in April. "We are currently controlling the whole city," a local military commander said. The army said troops were searching for 30 militants involved in Thursday`s bombing on a packed Jerusalem bus or planning other attacks. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, facing a leadership challenge from hardline Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sent the troops in to reoccupy Bethlehem just south of Jerusalem after heavy pressure to hit back hard for Thursday`s suicide bombing.

U.S. and British warplanes bombed two air defence radar sites in southern Iraq in the latest of a series of strikes in "no-fly" zones over northern and southern parts of the country, the U.S. military said. The Pentagon said the target was Iraqi air defence radar, attacked because Iraqi forces had been spotted moving a missile battery into the southern no-fly zone. Iraq said the planes bombed civilian targets and had been driven off by Iraqi anti-aircraft fire.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Private-sector economists shaved their growth forecasts for the final quarter of this year and for 2003 compared with three months ago, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Friday. Economists cut in half their estimates for fourth-quarter growth to 1.3 percent from earlier projections of 2.6 percent. They expect annualized real gross domestic product to register a modest 2.6 percent for all of next year, down from the previous estimate of 3.0 percent, the bank said in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters. Economists also predicted greater odds of a contraction in GDP, to 27 percent for the current quarter, up from 19 percent in the last survey. But the 35 economists surveyed forecast growth would pick up toward the end of next year, from 2.6 percent in the first three months to 4.2 percent in fourth quarter of 2003. (Note: the old “second half recovery” prediction once again).


Comment: As I pointed out yesterday and several times in the past, the demand for gold has far outpaced the supply of newly mined gold. It should be noted that little if any central bank gold that was sold in the past ever made it to the market but rather was sold and held by other central banks. In effect central bank sales are meaningless for addition to the supply side of the equation. Also, tensions are very high over the likelihood of military conflict in Iraq as the December 8th deadline approaches for Iraq to come clean on what weapons of mass destruction they hold in inventory. U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated that as Iraq has failed to comply with U.N. resolutions in the past and that they have been engaged in deception before it was likely the only way to find out what weapons they do have is to go into Iraq and force the issue. Meanwhile Iraq air defenses continue to fire on U.S. and British aircraft over the “no fly zones”. Many short-sellers appear to be settling up today after the expiry of options yesterday. Given the lackluster performance of equities during the gold trading session and the uncertain volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East, many investors may simply be looking for a safe haven to park funds. There are also persistent rumors that a large investment bank has entered the “buy side” in the gold market at about the time gold began to spike (up $4.60 an ounce at one point). Meanwhile bullish long-term fundamentals for the precious metals sector bodes well going forward.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/realgold3.htm

Der neue Zeal Intelligence Report ist da!

Real Rates and Gold 3

Von Adam Hamilton, CPA

November 22, 2002


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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/SilverInvestor/10380111…



Saturday, November 23, 2002

Reflecting on Silver - “The ah in ag”

By: David Morgan, http://www.silver-investor.com/



It’s a fact. Gold investors believe in gold under any economic condition, but they aren’t so sure about silver. Gold, they insist, is valuable and in fact undervalued. Their argument is basically that gold did well during the last Depression and silver only sold at twenty-five cents an ounce. This truth and their bias is only partially accurate as we investigate which of these two metals truly is the most undervalued.

If you relate silver to gold, the first thing that you note is the value ratio. For thousands of years, the ratio was generally 16:1 or lower. That assumption was the low for silver, not the high. In the year 200, you could buy an ounce of gold with only 10 ounces of silver. In 3500 B.C., three ounces of silver were equal to one ounce of gold.

For 5000 years, before it was discovered that silver had material and industrial uses, it held a consistently high value in relation to gold. This relationship was upset by the development of the phenomenal Comstock load in the late 1800’s. Silver also dropped briefly during the Depression where it took 70 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. I state this briefly to maintain factual integrity due to government intervention in revaluing gold and silver. The quick rise of silver to gold ratio of 27:1 occurred when the United States Treasury fixed silver at $1.29 per ounce and gold was fixed at $35 per ounce. Gold’s increase in value is widely known among precious metals investors. The fact remains that silver was also revalued a few years after gold.

After the government removed the official backing of silver certificates in 1965, two years later, the U.S. Treasury lost control of silver and its price rose to $2.50 per ounce. This placed silver once again near the historic ratio of 15:1. During the turbulent times since 1971 when the international gold window was closed, both gold and silver had been seeking their corresponding level, in a world of an ever-depreciating dollar.

The Facts About Silver

More recently, silver has been moving in the area around 40:1 to over 70:1 with gold. There are some very strong reasons why this ratio is seriously out of whack, and why it will be increasingly out of whack, until the price of silver rises. The facts weigh heavily in favor of the smaller ratio and that`s a higher silver price. Here are some of the facts.

1. When the U.S. Treasury sold off a half-million ounces of silver at less than $2 dollars per ounce, the price of gold was $35. The silver to gold ratio was about 17:1.

2. The U. S. treasury has no silver – nada, zilch, zero – as in NONE. There is no official stockpile anywhere in the world. I am aware that the latest GFMS report gives government holdings of 200 million ounces. This is unofficial at best and loaned at worst.
See The Smartest Money

3. While gold rose from $35 to $320 since closure of the Gold Cover Clause (a 900% increase), silver rose from a $1.29 per ounce to the present $4.55 per ounce – a little over a 300% increase.

4. Global stocks and the rate of usage also seem to favor silver. There may be as much as a billion ounces a silver in the world. That`s probably the maximum. This is according to the CPM Group and includes coinage. I refer you to my previous work. [See The Smartest Money]http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan052902.htm There are about 2 billion ounces of gold in the world, or a little more, and a good portion is still it in the central banks. There is half as much silver as there is gold.



Additionally, the silver is being used – actually consumed –while gold, for the most part, mainly changes its form. For example, the main industrial use for gold is jewelry, where it still exists as gold. Here, then, is the difference. Gold is used. Silver is mainly consumed.

The net result is that we face declining availability of silver; while in the long-term, we do not face declining availability of gold, at least not nearly to the same extent. The exhaustion of supplies of silver is foreseeable, whereas the exhaustion of supplies of gold, apart from monetary usage, is not foreseeable.

5. The world shortfall production of more than 100 million ounces a year for ten years has been narrowing the ratio of physical metal. The ratio of physical supply in 1990 stood at roughly one to one. For each ounce of gold, there was one ounce of silver. Again, according to CPM, the ratio has fallen to a 2:1 ratio. That is correct. For every ounce of silver, there are two ounces of gold. If that does not make you think about the price ratio being over 70:1 as I write this, then you had better put on your thinking cap.

The shortfall has been met by the drawdown of silver stockpiles. Whether this has been through sales or leasing is not the debate here. (See Previous) The point is the deficit has been met and the price is still low. The question remains will silver catch the attention of the investment community or not?



The immense popularity of silver, when it first broke loose from Treasury control, resulted in massive speculator purchases. These were later liquidated as a result of the fall prize from above $6 per ounce below $4 per ounce.
Will there be some type of official event, which would increase the popularity of silver as an investment? Frankly, I see some significance in the Treasury announcement that silver needed to be purchased in the open market to continue the silver eagle program. This announcement was seen as a non-event in the investment community.

These are the principal arguments favoring silver. They have not fundamentally changed for very long time. I have speculated that because of the strategic uses of silver, and because of its shortage, the price ratio would fall sometime to at least 10:1. I think we are approaching the point where the discrepancy between these two metals will begin to exert itself. And as usual, it will probably go too far in favor of silver. I don`t know how far this will be, but it`s a long way up from here.

Technical Trends – Will It Move?

From the technical standpoint, we must observe that silver has been below $5 and has remained near $5 for a very long time. There have been a few exceptions. The announcement of Buffett’s purchase briefly sent silver over $7 an ounce.

I would like to divert slightly here and remind the reader that when silver was starting to show good price action, there was an immediate threat of a lawsuit against the “longs” for what else – manipulating the price of silver. Anyone that reads my work and that of others on silver is very aware of the short position, without any threat of legal action. This simple fact may go a long way in answering the question I so often receive, why hasn’t a big player bought up the remaining amount of silver on the Comex. Silver is probably the only commodity in the world where you may need an act of Congress to take delivery of your purchase. (Joking of course!)



If silver breaks above $5 and holds, the next strong resistance point is $5.50. In my view, this level will take some work to penetrate and corresponds to the $330 level in gold so often written about. Once silver penetrates $5.50 and remains, there`s very little overhead supply above the $5.50 level. I believe that the next time silver goes crazy, it will pass the $7 mark established during the Buffett purchase. Every time in the past when silver has broken up through the long-term channel formation near the $5 level, it has gone up very fast. It is just as fast a performer on the downside. I don`t think you would be unreasonable to expect silver to hit $7 in 2003.

Two influences could work against the silver bulls. First, if the price of gold were to drop materially, expect weakness in silver. Secondly, a severe world depression would cut down the usage. However, remember when that happens, there will be a big decline in mining of copper, zinc and lead, which relate to silver materials. So the production of silver should fall accordingly. The shortfall in usage against production would still be very large.

Supply & Demand Issues Favor Silver

Remember this always and everywhere: the stocks of silver are not inexhaustible. We tend to forget that. We tend to forget how near the point we may be when we arrive at the silver crisis. A silver corner developed in late 1979 and it did not hold. This was because it was largely manmade. The big silver corner will come when the supplies, regardless of anyone, are just not meeting demand. When that time arrives, $10 will be low for silver.

Pricing Affordability in Wealth Preservation
Another element that may well aid the silver situation is that gold is so high-priced that ordinary people can only buy tiny quantities of it. There may be a growing tendency for people to save silver as money-of-last-resort. On the level of the common man, silver may be the metal of choice; whereas the rich save gold. At any rate, the potential of silver would appear to be considerably greater than the potential for gold. Silver has been riding in a fairly stable area between $4.50 and $5 and heaven knows how long it has stayed there. This is certainly not a large percentage fluctuation, relative to what other asset classes have witnessed over the past several years. Overall it would appear to me, that this area, around $4.50, is highly favorable for the purchase of silver. What applies to silver must applies to the best silver stocks.

The Shine in Silver

Solid & Tangible

It can be taken for granted that metals are safer than other commodities, but are not necessarily a good investment at any given time. They are safer than other commodities for the simple reason that they not will spoil. Only gold and silver stand apart from other metals and have done so for thousands of years. That`s not likely to change. The other precious metals will be priced according to the conditions. For example, platinum will remain rare, but if its usage fails to meet expectations, the price may decline. Of course if war requires more raw materials, then almost all metals would be in higher demand. Gold and silver, however, are the metals for those who wish to preserve their wealth.

Production Factors

Working strongly in favor of silver is the relative decline in production from a very long-term perspective. Silver stockpiles have declined dramatically during the past 13 years. Going back in history to 1650, the world was producing 44 times as much silver as gold. But now the world only produces about seven times as much silver as gold.

In all this time, consumption of silver has far outstripped consumption of gold. While the supply of gold as the monetary metal can remain adequate for at least a generation, this is not true for silver. The shortfall production of the consumption continues, even under recessionary conditions. It is very important to remember that during an economic downturn, silver production from copper, lead, and zinc, would be seriously curtailed. This fact was mentioned in a recent special Hightower report on silver.

This drop in mining other metals would mean an automatic curtailment of 75% of the source material silver of production, because nearly 75% of silver is mined in conjunction with copper and zinc and other metals. To increase silver production substantially, production of those other metals would have to be increased.

I concede that a depression would cut down the consumption of silver. However, the shortfall would remain intact. This has been evident the last couple of years. So every month, month after month, year after year, we are eating away at the remaining stores silver. In mathematical terms, it is a very interesting curve, because as a function of time, less is available. Thus, a larger amount in percentage terms is used as the months roll by.

Increased Merit in Silver Usage

As the world’s technology advances, the consumption of silver advances. Today photography consumes most of the silver, tomorrow it will be electronics and other new technologies that may rival photography in their demand. Two areas that have recently been reported are superconductivity and the use of silver as a replacement for arsenic as a wood preservative.

Silver is Money

At the same time, silver is still money, regardless of what the central banks say. We know this, because we know that are several hundred million dollars in silver holdings. It plainly states on the face of those silver coins that they are money. These coins are accepted without question as money. In this manner, I think silver has a monetary role to play.

Silver is Affordable to All

How many average people can buy 20 ounces of gold? How many can afford a 10 oz. bar of gold? How many of the world’s population can afford to buy even one ounce of gold at $320 per ounce? There are millions of working-class people that are not likely to be satisfied to hold as little as one gold coin. They would find it hard to negotiate for their needs. The sum is too large to negotiate for most daily needs. Gold is the monetary metal for the larger sums of money and for the rich. I believe that silver still has a role to play as money for the millions who cannot spend very much for total security, but still can spend something. Silver provides that security. They will have some money that will always work for them. So I repeat, it is not unreasonable to think that in the not-too-distant future, instead of selling a ratio of over 70:1, silver may well sell at a ratio of 10:1.

The Future for Silver

As the uses for silver continue to increase and the shortfall is accentuated, I believe when the right day comes, the correction in silver price will be even more dramatic than it was in gold after the signing of the Washington agreement. I believe the rising curve in silver will be breathtaking.

When this will happen exactly we do not know. I do believe it could begin in 2003. Stocks of silver are dwindling and it is beginning to show. Probably the largest supply of silver is in India, but they are selling only tiny amounts relative to their total holdings. Millions of peasants hold silver for a last ditch emergency. This was verified in part by the latest GFMS study, which indicated silver movement within India due to natural disasters within the country.

All in all, the future for silver is subject to more influences than probably any other commodity, and certainly to more factors than gold. Whether this happens over the short-term or not, one must not lose sight of three major factors as far as silver is concerned. I like to call it the ABC’s of silver investing.

A. The shortfall is about 100 million ounces per year.

B. Silver is being consumed and not stored like gold.

C. Sooner or later we will run out of silver stockpiles. We`re not too far from that day. When that day comes, there could be a panic to buy silver. A ratio of 10:1 is a fairly reasonable expectation.

As I reflect on the merit and value of silver, both historically and in present-day terms, I wait in expectation for that “Day of Ah!” will surely come for AG

http://www.silver-investor.com/
email: [e-mail]

Mr. Morgan publishes a private newsletter for serious precious metals investors. He hosts the web site: Silver-Investor.com. He has been a private economist for over two decades his background in engineering , with an advanced degree in Economics/Finance. He has been interviewed on Don McAlvany`s radio talk show, Financial Sense Newshour, Hard Money Watch, and appeared on television. Currently he does an internet radio wrap up each Friday discussing the economy and precious metals. Mr. Morgan was published in Global Investor regarding ten rules of silver investing. Currently, he is writing a book on silver.

Previous Articles by David Morgan
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/SilverInvestor/

[peter.wedemeier1]

Our elected officials went home for the holidays without extending the unemployment insurance benefits for 820,000 people and an additional 95,000 every week after Dec. 28.

They managed to vote themselves a pay raise and pass legislation giving perks to drug and insurance companies. They enact a homeland security bill costing billions and they want to go to war with Iraq which will cost more Billions.

Economists maintain that the cost isn`t a burden on the rest of government because the federal unemployment-insurance trust fund contains more than $25 billion for such purposes.

I urge you to speak out in your newspaper and let President Bush know that there are a lot of Americans that are feeling betrayed by the washington beuracrats.

Thanks

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Samstag 23.11.2002, MEZ 10:11

23. November 2002 07:37

Nordkorea schafft den US-Dollar ab und stellt auf Euro um

SEOUL - Das kommunistische Nordkorea schafft nach Berichten aus Südkorea den US-Dollar als Handelswährung ab. Die US-Währung müsse bis spätestens 30. November in Euro getauscht werden.

Die ausländischen Vertretungen in Nordkorea seien entsprechend informiert worden. Nach Einschätzung von südkoreanischen Wirtschaftsexperten reagiert die Regierung in Pjöngjang damit auf den Streit mit den USA über das nordkoreanische Atomwaffenprogramm.

Nordkorea hatte im Oktober offiziell erklärt, ein verdecktes Programm zur Anreicherung von atomwaffentauglichem Uran zu betreiben. Das Eingeständnis hatte international Besorgnis ausgelöst.
Die USA sprachen von einem klaren Verstoss gegen die Rahmenvereinbarungen zwischen beiden Seiten von 1994, in der ein Stopp des nordkoreanischen Atomprogramms vereinbart worden war.

Als Reaktion hatten die USA, Südkorea, Japan und die EU angekündigt dringend benötigte Heizöl-Lieferungen nach Nordkorea durch das internationale Energie-Konsortium für Korea (KEDO) zu stoppen. 230735 nov


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Samstag 23.11.2002, MEZ 10:29

23. November 2002 00:34

Argentinien hebt Beschränkungen im Bankensystem teilweise auf

BUENOS AIRES - Mit der teilweisen Aufhebung von Kontenbeschränkungen und Preiserhöhungen will Argentinien den Forderungen seiner internationalen Kreditgeber nachkommen.

Ab Montag würden rund 5,7 Milliarden Dollar (rund 5,69 Milliarden Euro) unter anderem auf Sparkonten eingefrorene Einlagen wieder frei verfügbar, sagte Wirtschaftsminister Roberto Lavagna am Freitag.

Guthaben in Höhe von etwa 4,3 Milliarden Dollar blieben jedoch weiter gesperrt. Lavagna kündigte zugleich Preiserhöhungen für öffentliche Dienstleistungen an. Die Anhebung soll unter der vom Internationalen Währungsfond (IWF) geforderten 30 Prozent bleiben.

Das mit 141 Milliarden Dollar verschuldete Argentinien steckt seit vier Jahren in einer Rezession. Gebeutelt von der Wirtschaftskrise hatte die Regierung in Buenos Aires im vergangenen Dezember Bankkonten teilweise eingefroren und die wöchentlichen Auszahlungen begrenzt.

Damit sollte eine weitere Kapitalflucht der Anleger und ein Zusammenbruch des Bankensystems verhindert werden. Der IWF hatte die Massnahmen abgelehnt. 230032 nov


SDA-ATS

[Hustensaftschmuggler]

...

Nicht nur immer Übersee! Auch mal deutesche Zeitungen lesen!

Die Minenbewertung im Text erscheint mir allerdings schon wieder verdächtig als Teil des amerikanischen "Leimrutenprinzips"...

Quelle:
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub2C201996BBF04B578F9FC8A9EFCCE747/Doc…





Gold

Unter US-Anlegern grassiert das Goldfieber
Von Sam Stovall, Chefanlagestratege bei Standard & Poor`s

22. November 2002 Eine Reihe günstiger Entwicklungen gibt dem Edelmetall Auftrieb und eröffnet den Anlegern Gewinnchancen. Die Anleger entdecken das Gold wieder. Mit ihrem jüngsten Kursaufschwung sind die Goldminengesellschaften wieder in den Kreis der Branchen zurückgekehrt, denen von Standard & Poor`s die größte relative Stärke gegenüber dem Gesamtmarkt bescheinigt wird.

Der S&P Goldindex konnte bis zum 15. November im laufenden Jahr 9,1 Prozent zulegen, während der S&P Super 1500 - in dem der S&P 500, der S&P MidCap 400 und der S&P SmallCap 600 zusammengefasst sind - einen Rückgang um 20,1 Prozent verzeichnete.

Der S&P-Analyst Leo Larkin hält Goldaktien auch künftig für eine lohnende Geldanlage. Wie er anmerkt, hat der kräftige Rückgang der Zinssätze seit Januar 2001 Leerkäufe des Metalls für Hersteller und Spekulanten unrentabler gemacht. Solche Geschäfte haben sich nämlich in den letzten paar Jahren sehr ungünstig auf die Goldpreise ausgewirkt.

Larkin hat aber auch noch verschiedene andere Gründe für seine optimistische Einschätzung. Er betont, dass die Aktienmärkte im Wettbewerb um die Anlegergelder wohl künftig einen schwereren Stand haben dürften. Mit ihren zweistelligen Renditen hatten die Aktien zwischen 1995 und 1999 die Dollars der Anleger vom Gold weggelockt und dem gelben Metall enorme Konkurrenz gemacht.

Bedeutung des Golds als Inflationsversicherung steigt

Außerdem weist Larkin auf die steigenden Rohstoffpreise hin, die eine Konsolidierung der Rohstoffindustrie und eine Erholung der Weltkonjunktur spiegeln. Bis zum 11. November 2002 verzeichnete der Rohstoffpreisindex des Bridge Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) einen Anstieg um 19,1 Prozent, nachdem er 2001 um 16,3 Prozent gefallen war. Eine Belebung der Weltwirtschaft und ein starkes Geldmengenwachstum in den USA müssten laut Larkin eigentlich 2003 die Rohstoffpreise in die Höhe treiben. Das bedeutet, dass die Anleger sich nach wie vor mit einer Inflation auseinander setzen müssen, die die traditionelle Rolle des Goldes als Absicherung gegen steigende Preise für Waren und Dienstleistungen zum Tragen bringt.

Hinsichtlich der Angebotssituation stellt Larkin fest, dass die Lücke zwischen Goldproduktion und Verbrauch auf Grund sinkender Ausbringungsmengen bei steigender Nachfrage immer größer wird. Da die niedrigen Goldpreise der letzten Jahre dazu geführt haben, dass deutlich weniger neue Minen erschlossen wurden, ist selbst bei einem dramatischen Preisanstieg des Metalls mit einer rückläufigen Produktion zu rechnen.

Gleichzeitig hat die Vereinbarung der Zentralbanken, die Goldverkäufe bis zum September 2004 einschließlich der Verkäufe der Schweizerischen Nationalbank und der Bank of England auf 2000 Tonnen zu begrenzen, eine Unsicherheit beseitigt, die den Markt in den späten Neunzigerjahren belastete. Sowohl die von den Zentralbanken in Vorbereitung auf die Einführung der gemeinsamen europäischen Währung abgestoßenen Mengen als auch die Veräußerung eines Teils der australischen Goldreserven 1997 und die von der Bank of England am 7. Mai 1999 angekündigten Verkäufe setzten die Marktpreise zusätzlich unter Druck.

Barrick Gold und Newmont Mining mit vier Sternen

Und schließlich führt Larkin noch an, dass in der Goldindustrie derzeit eine beachtliche Konsolidierung stattfindet. Zu nennen sind hier insbesondere die Übernahmen der Firma Homestake Mining durch Barrick Gold 2001 und der australischen Gesellschaft Normandy Mining durch Newmont Mining im Februar 2002. Fusionen führen zu einer höheren Marktkapitalisierung und Liquidität der Aktien und machen die Branche damit für institutionelle Anleger attraktiver.

Larkins aktuelle Favoriten innerhalb der Branche? Er gibt sowohl Barrick Gold als auch Newmont Mining die Gesamtnote vier Sterne - akkumulieren -, weil er davon ausgeht, dass beide Unternehmen mit ihren kostengünstig produzierenden Minen gut positioniert sind, um von einem künftigen Preisanstieg des Metalls zu profitieren. Außerdem gefallen ihm die „grundsolide“ Bilanz und der steigende freie Cashflow von Barrick und die gewaltigen Anstrengungen von Newmont, seine Schulden abzubauen.

[SiebterSinn]

"Vollständiger" Zusammenbruch des US$-Kurses zum Euro!

[SiebterSinn]

Natürlich muss es "Eurorutsch" heißen! Aktuell verliert der Euro zum US$ ca. 7 cent (0,924). Das kommt davon, wenn man am Samstag arbeitet!

[ThaiGuru]

@Hustensaftschmuggler

Was meinst Du wie gerne ich an Stelle englischer Beiträge, in deutscher Sprache abgefasste Texte zum Goldgeschehen posten würde.

Das englische Orginal zum Artikel der FAZ, habe ich hier im Thread vor 2 Tagen gepostet.

Genau hier liegt das Problem. Die deutschen Redaktionen lesen eben auch nur die englischen Beiträge zum Gold, redigieren sie etwas, machen die Uebersetzung, und veröffentlichen sie 1 bis 2 Tage später in deutscher Sprache. Das meiste stammt übrigens von Reuters, und Bloomberg, weniger von AP, und UPI. Die meisten Artikel zum Gold in der FAZ, Welt, etc., sind bis jetzt wenigstens, Verschnitte aus Meldungen eben dieser Nachrichtenagenturen. Neuerdings werden jetzt auch Meldungen der GATA, und einiger wenigen "urplötzlichen" pro Goldanalysten integriert.

Es ist leider zur Zeit immer noch so, dass die deutschen Zeitungen und Zeitschriften, nur "Konserven" veröffentlichen, und nur ganz selten eigene, von Amerika unabhängige Berichte veröffentlichen.

Auch die meisten "neuen" deutschen pro Gold Analysten, sind eigentlich nur Gedanken kopierer, und Trittbrettfahrer.

Ist aber trotzdem schon ein riesiger Fortschritt gegenüber noch vor 1 Jahr. Da wurde zu Gold in Deutschland noch fast gar nichts geschrieben, nicht einmal übersetzte Beiträge.

Wer weiss, vielleicht ändert sich das ja bald, und die deutschen Reporter, und Redaktoren, besinnen sich wieder einmal ihrer Informationspflicht, und beginnen sich ihre eigenen Gedanken zum Gold zu machen, und zu veröffentlichen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

2p ET Saturday, November 23, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

For more evidence that GATA`s thesis has become
widely accepted, check Steve Saville`s latest
commentary at Gold-Eagle. Here`s an excerpt:

"We are certain that the gold market is manipulated
and we are quite sure that some of the world`s major
central banks and governments have a hand in this
manipulation."

You can find the commentary here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse112502.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

November 22 - Gold $320.60 up $3.40 - Silver $4.53 up 7 cents

Gold Poised to Assault $330 Once Again

The gold orchestra found a new conductor. The new maestro waved his baton and the orchestra played a different tune than we heard all week, but not a surprising one. Predictably, the gang took gold down early by taking out the stops below $317 basis the Dec contract. They were touched off. Then Morgan Stanley, the silent cabal member, showed up as a MASSIVE buyer, taking gold up very quickly. Over and over again, the past six months have appeared at critical technical and psychological buy/sell points, and have been instrumental in making short-term tops/bottoms within the $310 to $326 range.

The Dec gold chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

Friday’s gold move up was full of goodies:

*The shorts, who capped gold last week to prevent the $320 calls from going in the money, were forced to cover.

*The open interest dropped to 166,601 contracts on Thursday. That finished off the 10,000+ contracts put on by the funds on the move over a week ago when the open interest rose to 176,000 contracts.

*Technically, it was a "10" as it provided us with a key reversal and outside day/ week to the upside.

*Gold moved up and so did the dollar (up .39 to 106.29). That is a favorite of mine, as vet Café members know well. The most powerful gold moves result from gold going higher all by itself and not as a result of other influences. Gold led the dollar down the first half of the year. That is a fact. Perhaps, it will lead the dollar lower again in the months to come?

*The CRB continues to grind higher and closed in multi-year new high ground at 231.64, up 1.34. But, there is no inflation!

*As reported here, gold has been off the investment radar screen for weeks. Interest in gold, the shares and even the Café has been abysmal. Café regulars keep visiting, but new customers have been scarce (in a relative sense to the past). From a contrarian standpoint, this has been another very bullish technical development.

*I am not sure what to make of it, but the quotes at www.thebulliondesk.com have been running 20 to 50 cents higher than those at www.kitco.com all week. Gold closed at the London web site at $321 bid. Is the local basis there 40 cents higher than in the US? Is gold that much tighter in London?

*$320.50 gold is the exact spot that Goldman Sachs stopped the market last Monday. The goon squad was hard at work at the same levels late yesterday. Should gold gap open this coming Monday, it could run up very quickly.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday November 22 2002

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.83, PM $2.53, with world gold at $318 and $317.60. Very ample for legal gold imports. India has done a stalwart job of blocking the Bears this week.

TOCOM, on the other hand, continues to contribute nothing. With volume dropping a further 28% to the equivalent of 12,624 Comex contacts, open interest slipped another 744 Comex lots even though the yen weakened slightly. The active contract edged up 4 yen and $US gold 45c... (NY traded 63,798 contracts yesterday with open interest falling 2627. Even subtracting out about 24,000 switching trades, it was a rather heavy day: knocking gold down in the NY afternoon evidently takes some effort.

"…if gold manages to fend off attacks at support levels of 317 and 315 for another 2 weeks, the outlook for gold would change from that of being negative to positive again as major indicators would have had a chance to re-align itself."

Standard London very appositely summarizes the situation (my italics). An important story published in NY today by Reuters highlights the problem (albeit inadvertently). Reporting that gold lease rates are again verging on negative, despite the fact that gold prices have risen, apparently, to a new plateau this year, the author is at a loss to explain why gold credit, as opposed to gold itself, is so cheap:

"Traders said that it was particularly strange to see lease rates invert in the run-up to Christmas, when the market usually tightens as jewelry fabricators buy gold to meet holiday demand. This implies that bullion dealers, essentially the middle men between the lenders and forward sellers, would charge a fee to accept gold, although in practice it would rarely, if ever, happen…"The reality is a central bank won`t lend it out unless they get a return. They`ll just sit on it."

The reality in fact obviously is that some Central Banks are lending it out, to the point where they are certainly not being paid for credit risk, and may even be paying out a little. They are the primary sources of lendable gold: their behavior sets the market.

Why? Richard Russell yesterday provides a rational explanation:

"-- the frantic Fed has taken a stand -- no deflation. The idea now is to get inflation going without it showing. How do you do that? You monetize like all get-out and keep gold from hinting at what you`re doing."

So the Gold market is being flooded with credit.

This afternoon’s surprising rally, however suggests this maneuver might not be so easy. It took a massive 33% increase in the estimated day’s volume to hold gold’s final charge to a dollar gain! On the NY day the metal surged $3.40 on another enormous 60,000 contracts. This is no longer a one sided game.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Zu kaufen gesucht!

100.- Franken Gold Vreneli 1925

Angebote bitte mit Beschreibung der Erhaltung, und Preisvorstellung an:

[e-mail]

[tamara93]

Hat jemand vom Euch eine Erklärung, warum der Euro am Samstag so brutal eingebrochen ist?

Von 1:1 auf 0,9225 ist ja schon heftig!!

Was bedeutet das am Montag für das Gold ?

[YoyoStock]

Am Devisenmarkt sehen viele Analysten kurzfristig den Dollar im Vorteil. Zum einen erhalte er von der verbesserten Investorenstimmung Unterstützung (sagte Larry Kantor von JP Morgan), zum anderen spreche die Markttechnik für eine weitere Abschwächung des Euro (sagen die Analysten von Helaba Trust). Der Euro schloss am Freitag mit 0,9968 $, zum ersten Mal seit 13 Tagen wieder unter der Parität.


Weiteres Potenzial sehen die Analysten bei den Rohstoffdevisen. Währungen wie die norwegische Krone, der südafrikanische Rand und der Neuseeland-Dollar würden vor allem vom relativ hohen Zinsniveau in diesen Ländern profitieren.

[derunsichtbarefreund]

tamara

ist nur datenmüll . devisenhandel fängt erst wieder an sonntag 22.00 MEZ, und dann bei 0,9970

DUF

[mickym [VIP]]

Ein neuer Essay aus
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/realgold3.htm



zeigt wo wir stehen.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

9:28p ET Saturday, November 23, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

CBSMarketWatch broadcast on Friday an audio
commentary by Mark Hulbert about suspicions
that the gold price is being capped. Hulbert`s
commentary draws largely on the recent
commentary of Richard Russell of Dow Theory
Letters, who in turn drew largely from ... well,
tonight let`s just call him the American Shaka
Zulu, since he`ll probably get assassinated
before anyone gives him the credit he deserves.
But the big point here is that the gold price
suppression scheme is now so obvious that
it is being acknowledged on network radio.
And if it is that obvious now, that exposed,
we may hope that its days are truly numbered.

If your computer is equipped with a media
player program, you can hear Hulbert`s
commentary here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={8D33471D…
458B-9A47-958C5599964E}&siteid=mktw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={8D33471D…
458B-9A47-958C5599964E}&siteid=mktw

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

Noch ein Bericht, von Bob Chapman, der von einem baldigen massiven Preisanstieg beim Gold ausgeht!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman/chapman112402.html

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

posted 24 November, 2002

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by:
Bob Chapman
Phone & Fax: [phone]
NEW E-mail: [e-mail]

Gold

Asset-backed bonds are starting to run into problems due to the slower economy. These bonds are supported by payments from credit card balances, boat loans and doctor bills for plastic surgery. $500 million in driving school student loans are about 70% in default due to the sub prime nature of the borrowers. These obviously are loans that should have never been made in the first place, just like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac`s sub prime real estate loans.

If the dollar index breaks 102 we could see 90, which would be a 30% correction to the euro, putting the EU`s political fiat currency at 117 where it started. The lower dollar will help US exports enormously, and in turn, the current account deficit. In fact, it is obvious that by the nature of a 1/2% rate cut, the FED and others want the dollar lower. It was essentially a vote of no confidence in the economy and US assets. In spite of a worsening current account deficit, foreigners have continued robust capital flows into the US over the past two years not based on merit but based on default - a lack of alternative. We now have a wide disparity in yields, the Republicans control Congress and that means more spending stimulus to keep the economy going. Previously funds were lent for capital expenditure and consumerism, now they are to fund a budget deficit as well. How willing are international investors going to be to support that? There are signs that consumers are cutting back on spending to save. That could be a major negative on US growth. In a sense, foreign funds have little alternative, save gold. It will be interesting to see which way they tilt.

The US economy has recently witnessed the largest, most aggressive, cut in interest rates ever and an equally rampant growth in money and credit, but little recovery is in view. That`s caused by a collapse in earnings, lack of investment, surging depreciation, high real interest rates, a murderous trade deficit and criminality in corporate America, banking and on Wall Street. This horrible combination has doomed any possible recovery. The world economic cycles are also out of whack. The US is leading the world into depression. This is an economy that over the last five years spent 50% more on imports than it actually earned. That was the engine that once again led the world to prosperity. It took six years for the economy to rise and by our statistics it should take nine years for it to recover. That would be 2010. Most have thought us mad for 31 months. Some seven years from now those unbelievers will say, why didn`t we listen? It was so simple to see. Of course, the Keynesians Friedman and Greenspan see us as totally daft. Then again, we`ve been right and they have not been correct. The systemic problems are beyond reach. Neither America nor the rest of the world economies have the dynamics left to overcome the coming depression, and the problems are everywhere and overwhelming. All the bubbles haven`t broken yet, and until they break there will not be recovery.

Inflows of capital into the US are no longer helping to support America`s current account deficit. Foreign portfolio investors have also lost their appetite for US equities. Asians are probably the only groups increasing US bond positions. The dollar and yields are both unattractive. The euro zone and the E-countries with non-oil current account surpluses all have falling prices and/or production levels. They account for 70% of global industrial production. They also control 80% of the global foreign exchange reserves. These economies are as dependent on the US current account deficit as the US is on external financing. It`s now only a question of when foreigners will break and run and the whole charade comes unglued. The catalyst for that could be a war in Iraq, its $200 billion plus price tag, is for a one to three week war and the reconstruction cost of $1 to $2 trillion. The CIA might even repeat its performance in Afghanistan and give away millions of dollars in $100.00 bills, most of which ended up in the bordellos of Pakistan. Foreigners own over 41.9% of all US Treasuries.

John Templeton, the 90-year old stock guru of Lyford Cay, says that the current account deficit, because of the risk that it poses to the US dollar, is the greatest threat imperiling the American Economy. It will reach $600 billion in 2003 or 5.5% of GDP. That makes the US account for 70% plus of the total global deficit. The deficit is an accident waiting to happen. Foreigners finance most of this financial profligacy. Over the last eight years foreign ownership of Treasuries is over 42% and the same is true of US stocks and corporate bonds. The foreign ownership share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is up over 100% to some 15%. The US owes 20% of GDP, while savings are at 4.4%. Obviously it`s fun to spend and that`s why bankruptcy claims are up 15% this year.

In a brash moment of candor, Peter Fisher, the Treasury`s undersecretary for domestic finance, said the cost of benefits the government vows to pay exceeds projected tax revenues by some $20 trillion. And, that`s no typo. He likened the US government to an insurance company with cash accounting that is not really an insurance company at all." It`s an accident waiting to happen." If the federal government draws the line at 19% for federal taxation there won`t be enough to pay the bills. One reason is baby boomers turn 57 next year and their group will cause Social Security and Medicare costs to skyrocket. Especially now that Mr. Bush has cut taxes to reignite the economy and expects to cut further. We suppose next the elitists will advocate plowing funds into a stock market that they have already manipulated to a level that is double what it should be on a Dow basis.

GOLD

America is sitting on the precipice of failure. We are not defeatists we are realists. We are about to embark on a war that is to enrich conspirators and perhaps end up destroying civilization. As we`ve known it, the American public and the world has been the victim of the biggest scam in recent history, which is fiat money and perpetual war for perpetual peace to cover the deceit and destruction of that specie. One way or the other we face terrible tribulation. What will be the event that finally triggers the collapse? We don`t know. What we do know is there are many things that can cause it that we know of and many things other than what we expect. 75% of the reserves of foreign countries are denominated in dollars. We believe as the economic and financial situation worsens those dollars will be sold for local currencies and gold. A particular case is China, which has no allegiance to anyone but themselves. A sale of $200 billion and a purchase of gold in that amount would collapse the American economy and send gold soaring. America has its military settled into the Middle East and would be of little use as a destructive force to retaliate against the Chinese and perhaps others. China is moving to back its currency with gold. A nation that saves close to 20% of its income might also be large buyers of gold. As you can see China could easily be the catalyst that brings about higher gold prices and a return to monetary sanity.

JP Morgan sounds like a broken record in their repeated denials that their gold derivatives position is in serious trouble.

We released the numbers two weeks ago; they were picked up by professionals in Europe and made it into the media everywhere except in the US, which speaks volumes regarding our controlled media. Everyone in the world knows the GATA story and the rigging of the gold market except the Americans. JPM lies about most everything just as the rest of Wall Street, CNBC and our government does.

JPM has no reputation left. Their retort to accusations of serious financial problems is always the same, "false and irresponsible." JPM`s risk position is not neutral. They are short gold and every time gold rallies they and others, such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and AIG, attack the price. There is absolutely no doubt the group is operating under the protection of the US government and central banks.

Of course, we are irresponsible requesting and asking for exposure of their gold derivatives position just like we don`t have a need to know what the "Working Group on Financial Markets" is doing. Everything is a big, dark secret and we know from experience that every time there is a big dark secret something bad or illegal is being covered up. Why would JPM take such a major interest in gold derivatives, especially to the extent of holding two-thirds of all the gold derivatives held by 370 banks plus others that is four times the exposure of Citigroup? There is a reason. Of course, there`s a reason and that is market manipulation. You heard it here first: JPM will go under. The government may save them but they`ll become insolvent once gold breaks to higher levels. Then we`ll find out the real story behind why 15,000 to 29,000 tons of official gold holdings have been sold.

Business for the bullion banks is deteriorating largely because of the fall in hedging business. Producers have become more cautious as gold refuses to fall back to $300.00 an ounce and falling dollar interest rates make it unprofitable for mines to hedge or for speculators to sell the metal short. Producers are covering their hedges, which has put a floor under gold. They have gone from being a net seller of 500 tons a year to a net buyer of 500 tons a year, or a 1,000-ton swing. Investment demand is up 12% for the first half of 2002. The only conclusion one can come to is that in order for gold to stay at current levels of $320.00 an ounce, central banks have to be sellers of the metal or are going naked short the market, knowing, if they have to, they can cover if they have gold in reserve. The problem is they may not have the gold to cover.

As our President promotes perpetual war for perpetual peace as a cover for global financial and economic collapse, the Gold Dinar has arisen as an Islamic trading vehicle in an attempt to avoid the use of currencies. This would not be a gold standard. It would be a method of trade, which was last used when President Nixon decoupled gold from the dollar on August 15, 1971. Since then all currencies have become fiat except the Swiss franc. Dinar based trading accounts will be settled quarterly in dinars, between trading partners, as we have seen gold can be manipulated, as fiat currencies are, but not easily. Unfortunately gold is the only alternative that has weathered the test of time. A basket of commodities has also been recommended by some experts such as democratic presidential hopeful Lyndon La Rouche, so that is another possibility. Although it`s been untried. The move to the dinar will be simple and with the Bush administration`s attitude toward Middle Eastern Islamic countries and the hold the dollar has on the Islamic World, we see the dinar as a very viable alternative. We would expect a host of other countries would join the dinar in trade, sick and tired that they may be of dollar imperialism and American elitist military adventurism. This is borne out in Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia, which has withdrawn hundreds of billions of dollars recently from American investments. The adoption in trade of the gold dinar is forbidden by the IMF and World Bank, thus they would have a major competing currency. This would be a major blow to the plans of the new world order and perhaps the demise of the IMF and World Bank. What you are witnessing is extremely important. Besides events concerning Iraq, there has been a program of intermediation by the US and UK against Saudi Arabia, which really have them furious. Rand Corporation has declared Saudi Arabia as the mother of all terror and called for the overthrow of their government and other Arab dictatorships. Then there was the CFC Terrorist Financing Report, headed by Hank Greenberg, ex-CIA and president of money launderer AIG. It attacks Islamic charities as financers of al-Qaida. As you can see the Islamic world and many others have much reason to move to a gold dinar and defy the US, UK and its elitists. If it works it could take the entire fiat money system down and, of course, gold would rise considerably higher.

MOSCOW. Nov. 15 (Interfax) -

Oleg Vyugin, first deputy chairman of the Central bank, does not rule out that the gold and currency reserves may reach $48 billion before the end of this year. Earlier, the Central Bank projected the gold and hard currency reserves at $44-45 billion at the end of this year. However, they reached $47.1 billion as of November 8. "I think we will maintain this rate in the near future," Vyugin said. He said he does not rule out that the amount of gold and hard currency reserves may increase in December. Vyugin attributed this to favorable conditions on the world oil market.

China has granted approval to its four biggest state banks to import and export gold after opening its first Communist-era gold exchange last month, though quotas have not been fixed, industry sources of Reuters said on Monday. China`s foreign trade ministry would allow the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank, Construction Bank and the Agricultural Bank to import and export gold, they said. But these banks would still have to go through the central People`s Bank of China to trade gold as the precious metal is regarded as a strategic resource, they said.


Bob Chapman
[e-mail]
November 24, 2002

321gold Inc Miami USA

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell112502.html



Inflate or Die

Richard Russell
Snippet
Dow Theory Letters
25 November, 2002

Extracted from the 22 November, 2002 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

November 22, 2002 -- Fed Policy -- The Fed knows it --it`s INFLATE OR DIE. And the Fed is inflating, while telling the world almost daily that it will do absolutely anything and everything it takes to ward off deflation. Can the Fed do it?

It look as though they can. The CRB Commodity Index is now within shooting distance of its highest level since January of 2001. The D-J Basic Materials Index has been climbing ever since its October 8 low. It`s the same with the Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index.

And despite massive shorting of gold by the Commercials, gold continues its fight to stay above 320.

So the Fed policy is -- inflate the money supply, keep telling the world that there will be "no deflation," keep promising that the economy will improve. And all the while somebody, someone, some group, continues the battle to keep gold below 320 so that nobody will realize that the Fed is going all out on the inflation path.

And the miracle of it all -- in the face of massive current account deficits, in the face of the lowest interest rates in 41 years, in the face of the rapidly expanding money supply -- the US dollar continue to hold together. In fact, the Dollar Index has been rising since its November 8 closing low of 104.98.

Why, what, how -- is the dollar holding up? My only answer, and I`ve said this before -- the dollar is a rotten currency, but all the others are worse. Besides -- the US has the world`s biggest economy and the US has the world`s most potent military. This perception could change tomorrow, but today that`s the way for FOREX (Foreign Exchange) crowd sees it. And the FOREX bunch are known for their sentimentality.

More follows for subscribers. . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
22 November 2002
© Copyright 2002 Dow Theory Letters, Inc




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/stocks/news/CliveMaund/10381…



Sunday, November 24, 2002

Caledonia Mining Corporation

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis



I have not mentioned this stock for a long time, despite it being one of my favourites, because it has been stuck in a boring consolidation pattern. However, I believe it will soon become a lot more interesting. The five-year chart for Caledonia, shown above, quickly reveals two important points. The first is that, relative to what is likely to happen in the future, the stock is still trading at a rock-bottom bargain price. The second point is that it has been under determined accumulation all this year, clearly visible in the volume profile at the bottom of the chart.



Looking now at the shorter-term one-year chart above, we can see that after putting in a fine performance in the spring on the rising gold price, the stock of Caledonia has been in a long tedious sideways-drifting correction. This correction brought the price down to a zone of strong support in the $0.13 - $0.15 area and the support of the still rising 200-day moving average. Volume action in this stock has been very positive throughout. I believe this correction is complete and the stock to be in position for renewed advance. It is sitting close to its 200-day moving average, the 50-day moving average is poised to turn up at the same price level, putting the averages once again in bullish sequence for the first time in months and volume behaviour remains positive. Keep in mind that when this stock is in bullish mode it advances swiftly and it looks like we may soon be in that mode again – which implies that gold will soon bust through the big resistance between $320 and $340. On the other hand it would be a serious development if it broke the strong support at $0.13. Buyers and existing holders should, therefore, place a stop-loss order at $0.12, in order to protect the larger part of their investment. A significant advance in the price of gold is expected to result in a very large gain for this stock, which should easily exceed the May high at $0.30.

Caledonia Mining Corporation, code CALVF (OTC BB)
Closed at $0.157 on 22 Nov 2002
Disclosure: I own a quantity of this stock

By Clive Maund, no responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Kaufbeuren, Germany, 24 Nov 2002

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=20613

SAUDI ARABIA`S FIRST ENGLISH DAILY

Malaysia hopes to start using Islamic gold dinar in trade

By Mushtak Parker

KUALA LUMPUR, 25 November 2002 — Is it time for emerging countries that have pegged their currencies to the US dollar or allowed them to shadow it, to start thinking of delinking? Especially at a time when there is increased pressure on the greenback in the face of a creeping recession in the US and of growing political tensions in a post-9/11 environment between the US and especially the Muslim world over differences in the fight against international terrorism.

In the last year or so there have been increasing calls even in the Gulf states, most of whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar, for delinking to be considered as an exchange rate policy management option. However, unless the economic case for de-linking is water tight, emerging countries are in danger of scoring a flurry of own goals, which may prove economically painful and costly.

Malaysia, which pegged its currency to the US dollar in 1997, following the onset of the Asian financial crisis, has confirmed that it has no plans to de-link or re-peg its currency from and to the US dollar. Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad, speaking to Arab News recently, confirmed that the Malaysian dollar (the ringgit) will continue to be pegged to the US dollar. “We would like to trade in the euro and the yen. But people are still not confident enough in these currencies,” he explained.

Malaysia is one example of how an emerging currency can successfully seek refuge in the US dollar from international currency speculators and fund managers. Mahathir is adamant that the fund managers cannot speculate in the Malaysian currency anymore.

“We allowed our currency to float and the market to set the value. It worked for a long time fluctuating between 2.5 to 2.6 ringgit to one US dollar. When (George) Soros came he valued the Malaysian currency almost by half to 5 ringgit to one US dollar. Since then we have forbidden any sale of our currency — no money can be transferred to another person unless there is a proper economic transaction. The movement of pure money from one person to another is not allowed. So they cannot get hold of our currency and sell it. The ringgit is now fixed at 3.8 to one US dollar. Soros has to admit that we are right. He told everybody that I am a menace to Malaysia. Now it has been proven that he is the menace,” he stressed.

In the case of Soros, the poacher did turn gamekeeper, for he has since then stressed the greater need for regulating international capital flows, especially to combat the so-called ‘herd-instinct’ of capital flows.

Even Mahathir’s other critics concede that his policy of pegging the ringgit to the US dollar; of imposing strict capital controls and a repatriation tax on foreign funds; of restructuring the Malaysian financial sector; and of refusing to seek help from the IMF, has paid off. Only two weeks ago, the World Bank mid-term review of East Asian and Pacific countries, gave the thumbs up to Malaysia’s economic reforms and stressed that growth forecasts of 3.5 percent in 2002 and 5 percent in 2003 are well-founded. The Bank did have some concerns over falling FDI flows from $5.3 billion in 2001 to $4.5 billion in the first ten months of 2002, and the rising domestic debt of 75 percent of GDP. Kuala Lumpur’s own GDP forecast for 2003 is 6 percent rising to the target of 7 percent in 2004.

Mahathir’s economic supremo, Datuk Mustapha Mohamad, who heads the National Economic Action Council (NEAC) in the Prime Minister’s Department, gave some indication of the conditions for delinking of the ringgit from the US dollar. “We will consider repegging if the real exchange rate is 20 percent above or below the current rate of exchange over a sustained period of time.” Datuk Mustapha did not expand on the time scale, but reiterated that delinking will take “quite some time.”

To Kuala Lumpur, seeking refuge behind the US dollar to keep the speculators at bay, is a mere tool of economic, financial and political expediency. What Malaysia is really after is a reform of the international currency system, especially to give emerging currencies more protection from unscrupulous currency raiders and speculators.

Whether this is in form of a tax on fund management or the movement of capital such as the one quarter percent Tobin Tax on currency transactions every time they cross borders proposed by Professor James Tobin of Harvard Business School as early as in 1972, or any other mechanism.

Kuala Lumpur is also keen to lessen the dependence of emerging countries on the use of the US dollar for their international bilateral and multilateral trade. That it is why it pioneered the bilateral payments arrangement (BPA) in the 1980s, of which the first such agreement was signed with Chile and subsequently with Algeria and Iran. Under the BPA, trade balances are settled between the two central banks every year, thus bypassing the need for costly correspondent banking out of London, New York, or Frankfurt.

Malaysia has signed 24 BPA agreements to date and has now suggested a way to leverage the mechanism by optimizing the use of foreign exchange through denominating trade under the BPA using the concept of an Islamic gold dinar (IGD). The man who pioneered the BPA and the IGD, Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, is optimistic that Malaysia will start using the IGD in its trade with some Muslim countries by mid-2003. Negotiations with countries such as Morocco and Bahrain have already started.

“We are proposing an Islamic gold dinar. Gold unlike paper money has an intrinsic value. You cannot devalue gold like paper money, because you can melt it into ingots or make jewelry. If the Muslim world accepts our proposal for a gold dinar bilateral payments arrangements, not for internal use, this would eliminate the use of the US dollar,” explained Mahathir.

The actual settlement of trade can be done through the transfer of equivalent amounts of gold. This will not involve physical transfer from one country to another, only beneficial ownership in respective accounts, say held with the Bank of England. Under this mechanism a relatively small amount of gold dinar is able to support a much greater trade value.

More interestingly Tan Sri Nor stressed that the BPA could eventually cover multilateral payments arrangements (MPAs). The last time Malaysia tried to propose this, albeit not denominated in the gold dinar, the IMF expressed strong opposition to the idea saying it contravened the fund membership rules, and which was abandoned after the G-77 meeting of emerging countries failed to take it up at one of their summits in New Delhi.

Mahathir, however, is not amused: “They (the IMF) said it was against the rules when we introduced our bilateral payments arrangements. We are still using these and our trade with such countries has increased by 400 percent. The IMF can say what they like. They have no say in this country. They need to seek our permission to come here.”

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thewest.com.au/20021125/business/tw-business-home…

November 25, 2002

Foreign grip tightens on gold mining

By Michael Weir

ONLY one of Australia`s top 10 gold mines is owned by an Australian company following the latest round of industry rationalisation.

Melbourne-based mining industry consultants Surbiton Associates said 70 per cent of Australia`s gold production was controlled by overseas companies after the successful takeover of AurionGold by North American giant Placer Dome.

Placer last week moved to compulsory acquisition of Australia`s biggest gold producer and its shares will be delisted from the Australian Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

Surbition said the Newcrest Mining-owned Cadia Hill mine in New South Wales was the last remaining Australian-owned major gold mine and only four of the top 20 gold mines were owned by Australian-based companies.

Overseas control of the Australian gold industry had risen from 20 per cent five years ago to 30 per cent by the end of 2000. With further takeovers, including Newmont Mining Corp`s takeover of Normandy Mining, it had risen to 60 per cent by early this year.

"Our latest production figures show that about 48 per cent of the total industry is now controlled by North American companies, with the split 25 per cent Canadian and 23 per cent US," Surbiton managing director Sandra Close said.

"South African-based companies account for 20 per cent, while European groups have some 2 per cent."

Australian gold assets have become more attractive to overseas predators because of the weak currency and the rise in the Australian dollar gold price.

In the past three years gold prices have risen from an average of about $400 an ounce to $573/oz in the September 2002 quarter - the highest quarterly average since June 1988.

"Many gold operations in Australia are returning very healthy margins," Dr Close said.

"Currently, there are not too many industries where, on average, the margin between cash cost and sale price is over 50 per cent."

Surbiton`s latest survey showed September quarter gold production dipped less than one per cent to 69 tonnes (2.2 million ounces) from the June quarter.

"The decline in output has stopped, as fewer operations are slated for closure and a number of new projects are coming on stream," Dr Close said.

Facing closure soon are South Africa`s Harmony Gold Mining-owned Big Bell mine near Cue and Sons of Gwalia`s Gwalia plant near Leonora.

In the September quarter, Herald Resources and MPI Pty Ltd restarted their Three Mile Hill mill near Coolgardie, and Haoma Mining brought its Bamboo Creek plant back into production.

More recently, Dominion Mining has begun production from its new Challenger mine in South Australia, Equigold has just commissioned its Kirkalocka project in WA and last week, LionOre Mining International and Dalrymple Resources poured the first gold from the $65 million Thunderbox operation near Leinster.

"Although gold output should rise in the short term, there is still concern about the longer term due to the low level of greenfields exploration," Dr Close said.

"The large overseas companies have stepped up drilling around their newly acquired operations but we have yet to see how much of their budgets will be devoted to exploration further afield."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=99771

BULLION REPORT

Gold improve further on sustain buying

NEW DELHI, NOV 25

Gold prices improved further on the bullion market today on sustained buying by local parties, triggered by a constant rise in its prices in international markets, and registered another moderate gain.

Silver, on the other hand, remained sluggish on lack of buying support and settled lower while weekly-based delivery was better on speculautors buying hoping an improvement in the trend in near future.

Marketmen said gold prices was on upward march, extending the previous bullish trend on the back of a firm trend in overseas markets where gold climbed up by more than 1.50 US dollar an ounce to 320.75.

They said some buying by local parties for the ongoing marriage season also boosted the trading sentiment to some extent.

Standard gold and ornaments further rose by Rs.20 each at Rs.5270 and Rs.5120 per ten gram respectively. Sovereign held unchanged at Rs.4200 per piece of eight gram.

Silver ready was weak by Rs.10 at Rs.7640 per kilo while weekly-based delivery recorded a rise of Rs.5 at Rs.7645 per kilo. Silver coins were continued to be asked at previous level of Rs.11,700/11,800 per 100 pieces.

The following were today`s quotations: Silver ready 7640 and delivery 7645. Silver coins buyer 11,700 and seller 11,800 Standard gold 5270, Ornaments 5120 and sovereign 4200.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.jsp?a=12&o=12581

BUSINESS

Gold stocks shine on flattish bourse

Alison Maltz | Johannesburg

25 November 2002 10:29

A stronger bullion price saw gold stocks lead the upside of the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) on Monday. Overall, however, the market was flat and volumes thin.

At 0913, the gold index was up 2,77% and resources were 0,50% stronger. The all share index was 0,22% in the black. The indi-25 was flat (-0,14%) as was the financial index (+0,09%). The IT index had shed 1,07% and platinum counters had yet to trade.

The rand was trading at 9,51 to the dollar from 9,48 when the JSE closed on Friday, while gold was quoted at $320,65/oz from $318,05/oz at the JSE`s previous close.

"We have opened firmer. The strength is largely on the resources side of the market, where gold stocks are up on the back of the stronger gold price," a dealer said.

She added that stocks like Harmony (HAR) had down well in the US on Friday. Harmony was up 2,99% or R3,80 at R131, Gold Fields (GFI) was 3,92% or
R4,10 stronger at R108,80 and AngloGold (ANG) had advanced 1,94% or R9,89 to R519,90.

London-listed diversified resources group Anglo American (AGL) was down 20 cents at R132,80.

"For the most part, it has been a pretty quiet start," said the dealer. "The market is quite mixed, but generally financials are looking better."

She noted, however, that while ABIL (ABL), which released its results before the opening, was up 5 cents at R6,10, it was offered down so there was a good chance it would turn negative.

ABIL on Monday reported a 20,9% decline in headline earnings per share to 102,7 cents for the year ended September 30 from 129,9 cents a year ago.

A final dividend of 18 cents per share was proposed from 15 cents a year ago, making a total of 30 cents from 25 cents a year ago.

The I-Net Bridge consensus forecast was for HEPS of 114 cents and a dividend of 22 cents.

A trading update by Old Mutual (OML) had little effect on the share, which was one cent weaker at R13,85.

Old Mutual said that for the ten months ended October, total earnings were lower than those reported in the first half of the year. Leading the upside of a very quiet industrial market was MTN Group, which was 2.40% or 30 cents stronger at R12,80. MTN reports its interim results to September
tomorrow and analysts are expecting headline earnings per share to be up by about 40%. - I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.jsp?a=12&o=12581

BUSINESS

Gold stocks shine on flattish bourse

Alison Maltz | Johannesburg

25 November 2002 10:29

A stronger bullion price saw gold stocks lead the upside of the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) on Monday. Overall, however, the market was flat and volumes thin.

At 0913, the gold index was up 2,77% and resources were 0,50% stronger. The all share index was 0,22% in the black. The indi-25 was flat (-0,14%) as was the financial index (+0,09%). The IT index had shed 1,07% and platinum counters had yet to trade.

The rand was trading at 9,51 to the dollar from 9,48 when the JSE closed on Friday, while gold was quoted at $320,65/oz from $318,05/oz at the JSE`s previous close.

"We have opened firmer. The strength is largely on the resources side of the market, where gold stocks are up on the back of the stronger gold price," a dealer said.

She added that stocks like Harmony (HAR) had down well in the US on Friday. Harmony was up 2,99% or R3,80 at R131, Gold Fields (GFI) was 3,92% or
R4,10 stronger at R108,80 and AngloGold (ANG) had advanced 1,94% or R9,89 to R519,90.

London-listed diversified resources group Anglo American (AGL) was down 20 cents at R132,80.

"For the most part, it has been a pretty quiet start," said the dealer. "The market is quite mixed, but generally financials are looking better."

She noted, however, that while ABIL (ABL), which released its results before the opening, was up 5 cents at R6,10, it was offered down so there was a good chance it would turn negative.

ABIL on Monday reported a 20,9% decline in headline earnings per share to 102,7 cents for the year ended September 30 from 129,9 cents a year ago.

A final dividend of 18 cents per share was proposed from 15 cents a year ago, making a total of 30 cents from 25 cents a year ago.

The I-Net Bridge consensus forecast was for HEPS of 114 cents and a dividend of 22 cents.

A trading update by Old Mutual (OML) had little effect on the share, which was one cent weaker at R13,85.

Old Mutual said that for the ten months ended October, total earnings were lower than those reported in the first half of the year. Leading the upside of a very quiet industrial market was MTN Group, which was 2.40% or 30 cents stronger at R12,80. MTN reports its interim results to September
tomorrow and analysts are expecting headline earnings per share to be up by about 40%. - I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mom.ch/cgi-bin/mhsnews/titel/news.pl?FUNC=SHOW&RE…



24.11.2002

Was ist schon passiert? Es ist doch nichts passiert ...

Unkenntnis und Naivität

Werte und Schulden

Rallies in Perspektive

Bear Market voll intakt


Wenn über die Börse diskutiert wird, höre ich fast immer: Es ist ja nichts passiert; wir stehen heute dort, wo die Börse 1997 stand. Das ist doch kein Problem ...

Das ist ein schwerer Irrtum. Er zeugt von krassen Lücken im ökonomischen Verständnis der Finanzmärkte und von bedenklicher Naivität.

Von den Höchstständen im März 2000 aus gerechnet sind an der Wallstreet rund 10 Billionen Dollar vernichtet worden. Man sagt, nur Papierwerte; solange die Börse nach oben ging, hat man anders geredet; damals meinte man, dass es echte Werte seien. Und jene - ich habe dazugehört - , die zu dieser Zeit schon sagten, dass das alles Papiergewinne seien und keine echte Substanz, sind belächelt oder beschimpft worden.

Aber darauf kommt es nicht an; das wirklich Wesentliche ist etwas ganz anderes: Die heute vernichteten und vorher geschaffenen 10 Bio Dollar sind nicht aus dem "blauen Himmel" heraus entstanden, sondern benötigten für ihre "Produktion" zwischen 3 und 5 Bio Dollar Kredit.

Die "Werte" sind verschwunden; die Schulden sind aber geblieben. In dem Masse ist die reale Nettoverschuldung angestiegen. Schulden dieser Art werden nicht mit den "niedrigen Zinsen" von 0,75% FED-Funds bedient, sondern mit 5 - 7% mindestens, in Wahrheit - abhängig von der Bonität des Schuldners - wesentlich höher. Im Verhältnis zu den niedrigeren Vermögensständen sind auch die relativen Zinsbelastungen massiv gewachsen.

Das alles zeigt noch nicht seine Spuren in der sogenannten Liquidität, weil die Abschreibungen in den Bilanzen noch nicht vollzogen wurden. Wenn nicht ein Wunder an der Börse passiert, sind die Wertberichtigungen auf Ende des Jahres unausweichlich und von selten verzeichneter Grössenordnung.

Die Baisse ist in vollem Gange. Wer sich von den Marketing-Abteilungen der Wallstreet-Industrie und den Zweckoptimisten der Bubble-TV`s beindruckt fühlt, braucht nur eine Langfrist-Chart irgendeines der hochgelobten Indices anzusehen - das gibt eine Perspektive für die "tollen" Erholungen der letzten paar Wochen, und Grund zur Nüchternheit. Was sich durch die "Erholung" geändert hat, ist die Fallhöhe des nächsten Kursrückganges. Sie ist deutlich grösser geworden

© by MZSG Management Zentrum St.Gallen / Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

In Zusammenarbeit mit mhs@internet AG St.Gallen

[Jodie1]

@mickym

Hierzu würde auch sehr gut der Langfristchart der Dow-Gold-Ratio passen.

Du hast ihn neulich in einen thread reingestellt, ich finde ihn aber nicht mehr.

Stell ihn doch hier noch mal rein, er passt dazu sehr gut.

CU Jodie

Wer Gold hat, hat immer Geld.

[mickym [VIP]]

@Jodie



Wie gewünscht!

Gruss Mic

[Jodie1]

Super, genau den meinte ich, besten Dank !


CU Jodie

[ThaiGuru]

November 25 - Gold $317.80 down $2.80 - Silver $4.46 down 7 cents

THROW THE BUMS OUT!

So much for my technical analysis. I keep suckering myself in. Analyzing a rigged market is useless. For all the dingbats out there that still don’t get it, no free market trades like this. Gold rallies sharply and is taken right down. Gold rallies sharply and is taken right down. Over and over again, we have seen the same pattern. Lately, the takedowns have tended to be immediate.

This is the second time within two weeks gold was stopped at $321, basis the December futures contract, then immediately taken down in overseas trading, followed by a bashing in New York.

The so-called free gold market is a joke and so is the gold industry. The World Gold Council should be disbanded for aiding and abetting the enemy. Recently, they officially aligned themselves with Gold Fields Mineral Services, the "official" supplier of gold/demand statistics for the industry. For years, GFMS has shaded their numbers to accommodate The Gold Cartel. They have low-balled demand and not accounted for the excess gold supply hitting the market via the cabal to keep the gold price from rising.

The proof in the pudding is the true gold loan/swap numbers. Through the brilliant work of Frank Veneroso, the GATA numbers suggest the gold loans/swaps of the central banks are 12,000 to 17,000 tonnes. While preparing for The African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa on April 2001, Frank estimated them to be 10,000 tonnes on the low side and 16,000 tonnes on the high side. The World Gold Council ought to be thoroughly investigating the work of the GATA Camp because if proven correct and disseminated to the public, it could change the entire investment demand picture in The West.

The World Council could begin by examining the IMF’s gold playbook for their member banks. The world’s central banks clearly do not have the gold on hand they say they do. The IMF has instructed its central banks to deceive the public by counting swapped gold as official gold reserves. GFMS states that only around 4600+ tonnes of gold has left the coffers of the central banks. GATA’s numbers are 10,000 tonnes greater than that. The difference is extraordinary.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

From On The Record at The Matisse Table by Andrew Hepburn:

One other official institution, over which the U.S. Treasury has considerable influence, has distinguished itself with questionable accounting practices. In October 1999, less than one month after the post-Washington Agreement gold price explosion, the Statistics Department of the International Monetary Fund published a document entitled, "The Macroeconomic Statistical Treatment of Securities Repurchase Agreements, Securities Lending, Gold Swaps and Gold Loans."

http://www.imf.org/external/bopage/pdf/99-10.pdf

This draft paper, discovered by GATA consultant Michael Bolser recommended that central banks record as a reserve asset gold that had left their vaults by way of a swap. Simply put, member nations would be advised not to differentiate between gold in the vault and gold receivables.

With the above in mind, GATA supporters around the world posed the following question to the IMF in October 2001:

Why does the IMF insist that members record swapped gold as an asset when a legal change in ownership has occurred?

See: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/903

The IMF responded that:

This is not correct: the IMF in fact recommends that swapped gold be excluded from reserve assets.

(See Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, Operational Guidelines, para. 72, http://dsbb.imf.org/guide.htm. [Emphasis Supplied.]

See: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/904

A footnote on the central bank of the Philippines website contradicts the IMF’s claim:

Beginning January 2000, in compliance with the requirements of the IMF`s reserves and foreign currency liquidity template under the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), gold swaps undertaken by the BSP with non-central banks shall be treated as collateralized loan. Thus, gold under the swap arrangement remains to be part of reserves and a liability is deemed incurred corresponding to the proceeds of the swap. [Emphasis Supplied.]

See: http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sefi/fx-int.htm

Responding to an inquiry, the European Central Bank also revealed that swapped gold was to remain a reserve asset. The ECB wrote:

You have asked us about the IMF recommendation in cases where the ECB engages in gold swaps.

Following the recommendations set out in the IMF operational guidelines of the "Data Template on International Reserve and Foreign Currency Liquidity" which were developed in 1999, all reversible gold transactions, including gold swaps, are recorded as collateralised loans in balance of payments and international investment position statistics. This treatment implies that the gold account would remain unchanged on the balance sheet. [Emphasis Supplied.]

The Bank of Finland and the Bank of Portugal also confirmed in writing that swapped gold remains a reserve asset under pertinent IMF regulations.

The influence of IMF recommendations for gold swaps, loans and deposits should not be underestimated. For example, on its balance sheet the German Bundesbank lists "Gold and Gold Receivables" as a one line item.
See: http://www.bundesbank.de/vo/download/gb/2001gb_bbk_en.pdf.

This approach is in direct conflict with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which the central bank is obligated to follow as per German banking law.

See: Section 26 (2) of the Bundesbank Act-available at http://www.bundesbank.de/presse/download/bbkgesetz0902.pdf

In response to an inquiry, the Bundesbank justified their accounting treatment on the grounds that IMF rules take precedence over domestic law. The effect is obvious: from published financial statements there is no possible way to determine how much gold Germany holds in its vaults. The refusal of the Bundesbank to provide a breakdown between physical gold and gold receivables belies any notion of market transparency.

GATA believes that the implications of IMF accounting procedures for reversible gold transactions are very significant. Clearly deceptive accounting, countenanced by the IMF has allowed official sector gold to hit the market without a corresponding drawdown on the balance sheets of central banks.

This has made it impossible for analysts to ascertain the exact size of official sector gold loans, swaps and deposits.

The unwillingness of central banks to provide even a minimum level of transparency suggests that total gold receivables are substantially larger than the accepted industry figure of approximately 5,000 tonnes.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.89, PM $3.11, with world gold at $320.80 and $319.20. Approximately at, and well above, legal import point. Surprisingly robust performance by India, considering the abrupt increase $4 jump in gold they encountered on opening this morning. A Reuters story from Hong Kong this morning mentioned a shortage of supply of Good delivery kilobar in the Far East (which does supply India), and a cheerful story from New Delhi refers to "sustained buying by local parties". Whatever the Bears have going for them at present, they do not have co operation from the world’s gold largest market. See:

http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=99771

courtesy Ross Norman’s magnificent news gathering site

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/default.asp?load=true

TOCOM too, was disposed to lend a hand today. The combination of a sharply weaker yen and higher $US gold price triggered an enthusiastic start when Japan opened. Futures reached a 5-week high. The active contract closed up 12 yen; $US gold tried repeatedly to get through its’ closing level of $321 (+ 40c on NY’s close). Volume jumped 106% above Friday to the equivalent of 26,075 Comex contracts, although open interest declined by the equivalent of 2,020 Comex lots. (NY traded 60,887 contracts on Friday: open interest fell a surprisingly small 90 lots.)

Tokyo gold’s failure to breakout happened, as Nihon Unicom grumpily notes, because "downturn in London cash market to $317 level brought profit-taking sales." In other words the steady selling which resumed when London opened overwhelmed the upward advance and threw it into retreat. Lease rates remain static at, as noted Friday, very low levels: the usual signs of short selling are not present. This alludes to a matter which is puzzling UBS Warburg:

(concerning the CFTC data "In the week to 19 November there was little change in the size of the speculative positions held on Comex...Of note, however, was the change in the gold price, which fell by $5.40 over the period despite the small moves in Comex open interest….Comex trading speculators remain rather long of gold despite the fall in the gold price in the week to 19 November, indicating that OTC traders were behind the sell-off."

Sellers dealing OTC and not needing, apparently, to borrow gold to settle. Who could that be?

A comic, but ultimately valuable insight into the problems of analyzing the gold and precious metal market is supplied today by the voluble and idiosyncratic commentator Leonard Kaplan in his daily comments for Prospector Asset Management. (See

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/prospector/prospector.…

Kaplan gleefully (and correctly) observes of gold and silver last week:

"Naturally, of course, these two precious metals saw their lowest prices on Thursday, the day that options expired on the exchange."

And goes on to say:

"OK, let me try to explain how this works….Generally, the buyers of call options on the exchange tend to be the "public" small speculator"…. The sellers of these call options tend to be the large professional bullion banks and experienced traders. Now, if prices close below a major strike price for an option, all the buyers of calls see their contracts expire worthless, and all the sellers of the same options get to keep all the money they received in option premiums. Millions, or tens of millions, of Dollars are at stake over just a few cents, one way or the other."

"So, as an example, lets use the silver market on Wednesday when December silver closed at $4.535, comfortably over the $4.50 strike price. All the professional traders, who have previously sold call options to the public, would dearly enjoy seeing the price close BELOW the $4.50 strike price of the option on Thursday, so that the options expire worthless and they get to keep all the money paid to buy those options. So, guess what happened on Thursday? Professional selling by large bullion banks and professional traders pushed silver down by about 7 cents on that day, rendering the $4.50 call options worthless, only to see the very same traders buy the market aggressively on Friday to see silver rise by about 7 cents on Friday, right back to where it started on the close of the market on Wednesday. And, millions of dollars worth of silver options expired worthless for the buyers of such, while such antics put the same millions of dollars into the pockets of the professionals."

He follows this plausible account with the astonishingly obtuse comment:

"There are some who might label the movement of prices just previous in time to option expiration as manipulation. It is not. It is just a matter of money and who wins and who loses."

Initially, one wonders if anything can be manipulation if the above example is not. But then reality dawns: "manipulation" is, basically, a moral concept. Mr. Kaplan clearly belongs to the deplorable Continental European ethical school holding that might is right and that the (big) customer is always correct.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Besten Dank SDI85, der diesen Bericht bereits gestern in seinem Thread veröffentlicht hatte.

Die positiven Berichte zu Gold werden zahlreicher!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

Dienstag, 26. November, 02:30 Uhr

Minengesellschaften wollen neue Anlegerkreise erschließen

Analysten empfehlen: Gold ins Depot


Von REGINE PALM


Nach einhelliger Ansicht vieler Experten wird der Goldpreis weiter steigen. Anleger sollten daher das Edelmetall ihrem Depot beimischen, raten sie. Analysten empfehlen insbesondere die Aktien von Goldminen-Gesellschaften. Deren Chefs rühren gerade kräftig die Werbetrommel für die Goldanlage.



FRANKFURT/M. Es ist nicht einfach nur ein Ring. Es ist der Ring der Macht aus dem Film „Der Herr der Ringe“. Für Bernhard Swanepoel, Vorstandsvorsitzender der Harmony Gold Mining, ist der Ring zum Kinostreifen, den seine Gesellschaft exklusiv verkauft, aber weitaus mehr als eine Marketing-Idee. Der Reiz liege darin, dass er „Gold für junge Menschen interessant mache“. Eine neue Generation werde so an Gold und Goldprodukte herangeführt, sagte er dem Handelsblatt am Rande des „Global Gold, Diamonds and Precious Metals Forum“ in Frankfurt.

Die Werbung für Gold kommt nicht von ungefähr. Evy Hambro, Sector Fund Manager bei Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, hat beobachtet, dass Gold lange unattraktiv war. „Niemand wollte Gold“, als die Bullen an den Kapitalmärkten das Sagen hatten. Denn Gold entwickele sich positiv, wenn andere Vermögensanlagen schlecht abschneiden, erklärte Hambro. Doch spätestens seit den Terroranschlägen in New York haben einige Anleger das Gold wieder entdeckt. Der Preis hat sich seither deutlich erholt, liegt aber mit rund 320 $ je Feinunze noch weit unter früheren Höchstständen.

Es müssen also neue Investoren für Gold begeistert werden. Dies unterstrich auch Ian Cockerill, der Vorstandsvorsitzende von Gold Fields. „Dem Anleger muss klar werden, dass langfristig ein Anteil Gold in sein Portfolio gehört“, sagte Cockerill dem Handelsblatt. Die Investoren könnten auch die Chance verpassen, von einem steigenden Goldpreis zu profitieren. Er ist überzeugt: „Der Goldpreis ist nach wie vor unterbewertet“.

Wie andere Experten auf dem Forum sieht auch der Gold-Fields-Chef zahlreiche Faktoren, die für einen Anstieg des Goldpreises sprechen. Dazu zählen neben dem schrumpfenden Minen-Angebot und der Unsicherheit an den Welt-Finanzmärkten vor allem die – allgemein erwartete – Schwäche des US-Dollars und die Verringerung des Hedgings der Minengesellschaften. Bei Hedging-Transaktionen verkaufen Minen einen Teil des noch im Boden befindlichen Goldes im Voraus, um sich Kapital zu beschaffen. So sichern sie sich nicht nur den aktuellen Goldpreis, sie erhalten in der Regel auch einen Aufschlag, der bei Derivaten in entfernteren Lieferterminen mit eingepreist ist.

Die Erwartungen halten sich allerdings noch im Rahmen. Sollte der Dollar nachhaltig unter Druck geraten und um rund 10 % fallen, hält Merrill- Experte Hambro einen Goldpreis von bis zu 365 $ für möglich. Kevin A. Crisp von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London prognostiziert bis Ende 2002 rund 330 $. Mittelfristig könnte Gold dann auf 350 $ steigen. Anleger müssten dabei aber immer beachten, dass der Goldmarkt ein recht enges Handelssegment sei.

Auch Harmony-Chef Swanepoel sagt, dass der Goldmarkt zu Übertreibungen neigt. Häufig sei nicht ersichtlich, warum der Preis stark in die eine oder andere Richtung ausschlägt. Als Hauptgrund für diesjährigen Preisanstieg bei Gold sieht auch er den schwächeren US-Dollar. Swanepoel würde sogar einen Anstieg bis auf 400 $ nicht ausschließen, realistischer seien jedoch rund 350 $. Nach Angaben von Swanepoel und Cockerill wäre dieses Niveau aus Sicht der Goldminengesellschaften wünschenswert und zwar sowohl unter Kostenaspekten als auch unter Investitionsgesichtspunkten.

Anleger haben bei Gold inzwischen eine breite Palette an Investmentmöglichkeiten. Dies erläuterte Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Dazu zählen neben der physischen Anlage Optionsscheine auf Gold, die besonders für spekulative Investoren geeignet seien. Darüber hinaus gibt es Zertifikate oder auch strukturierte Produkte. Als weitere Möglichkeit bieten sich natürlich Goldaktien an. Hambro gefällt dabei der Hebel, der das drei- bis fünffache gegenüber Gold ausmache, wobei der Diversifikations-Effekt im Portfolio gleichermaßen erreicht werde. Daneben lobte er die herausragende Position, die die Gesellschaften nach einer Phase aggressiver Konsolidierung und Rationalisierung erreicht hätten.

Den Optimismus für Gold spiegelt nach Einschätzung der Experten auch der anhaltende Verzicht auf das Hedging wider. Markus Mezger von der BW Bank erklärt den Abbau derartiger Aktivitäten unter anderem mit den niedrigen Zinsen. Zudem „lieben die Aktienmärkte die Non-Hedger“, sagte Mezger. Dies hat auch Swanepoel beobachtet. Generell hätten die Papiere der Gesellschaften, die Gold nicht im Voraus verkauft haben, weitaus besser abgeschnitten als die Aktien anderer Minenfirmen. Die Harmony-Aktie ist trotz der jüngsten Rückschläge seit Jahresbeginn von rund 8 000 auf knapp 13 000 Rand gestiegen.

Auch das Gold-Fields-Papier hat deutlich zugelegt, von 6 000 Rand zu Jahresanfang auf heute rund 10 500 Rand. „Wir haben festgestellt, dass unsere Investoren direkt von einem steigenden Goldpreis profitieren wollen“, sagt Cockerill. Dies könne nur erreicht werden, wenn die Goldfirma auf ein Hedging verzichtet. Bewegung in den Kurs brachten zudem immer wieder Spekulationen um eine Megafusion zwischen Gold Fields und Anglogold, den beiden Spitzenreitern am südafrikanischen Markt. Cockerill räumte zwar ein: „Wir sprechen über gemeinsame Geschäfte, aber wir müssen dafür nicht fusionieren.“ „Es gibt genug Raum für beide“, sagt der Gold- Fields- Chef, der Kooperationen zwischen den beiden Goldschwergewichten gleichwohl nicht ausschließt.


HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 25. November 2002, 08:30 U

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2002/11/26/19790.html

Für japanische Banken kommt es noch schlimmer.

Im Vorgriff auf die angekündigte Bankenreform stellen sich die japanischen Kreditinstitute auf anhaltend schwierige Zeiten ein.

Tokio - Wirtschaftsminister Heizo Takenaka, der die Banken zu größeren Abschreibungen ihrer „faulen Kredite“ auffordert, werde noch in dieser Woche einen detaillierten Zeitplan seiner Reform vorstellen, hieß es in Tokioter Branchenkreisen. Wegen der vielen Not leidenden Kredite, die offiziell auf insgesamt 52 Bio. Yen (430 Mrd. Euro) geschätzt werden, müssen einige japanische Institute fürchten, den international geforderten Eigenkapitalrichtlinien bald nicht mehr gerecht werden zu können – im schlimmsten Fall könnte eine Verstaatlichung drohen.


Bei der Vorlage der Halbjahresbilanzen der großen japanischen Geschäftsbanken standen wegen dieser Unsicherheiten weniger die Gewinne oder Verluste in Vordergrund. Vielmehr suchten Branchen-Analysten nach Anhaltspunkten, wie die Banken frisches Kapital aufnehmen, Kosten sparen, Kredite abschreiben und eventuell umstrukturieren wollen. Die Mizuho Financial Group, nach der Bilanzsumme die größte Bankengruppe der Welt, plant Gehaltskürzungen von fünf bis zwanzig Prozent. Nach Verhandlungen mit den Gewerkschaften sollen die Kürzungen im Frühjahr 2003 zum Tragen kommen. Außerdem will Mizuho bis März 2006 etwa 5000 von derzeit 30 000 Arbeitsplätzen streichen. Mehrere Filialen, die vor allem Privatkunden und kleinere Geschäftskunden bedienen, sollen geschlossen werden. Zum 30. September wies Mizuho zwar einen Halbjahresgewinn von 39 Mrd. Yen aus, doch für das Gesamtjahr rechnet das Management mit einem Konzernverlust von 220 Mrd. Yen. Vergebene Kredite von insgesamt 1 Bio. Yen sollen im Gesamtjahr aufgegeben, als Verluste abgeschrieben werden, hieß es am Montag von Mizuho.


Die UFJ Holdings, die zusammen mit Mizuho zu den Schwächeren unter den großen Vier zählt, berichtete über einen konsolidierten Halbjahresgewinn von 72 Mrd. Yen nach Steuern, rund 590 Mio. Euro. Im Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres war noch ein Konzernverlust von 67,4 Mrd. Yen ausgewiesen worden. bew

Artikel erschienen am 26. Nov 2002

[ThaiGuru]

Eldorado Gold Eliminates Bank Debt, Hedge Book

13:59 GMT-05:00 Monday, November 25, 2002

TORONTO (Reuters) - Small-cap Canadian gold miner Eldorado Gold , owner of the Sao Bento mine in Brazil, said on Monday it had eliminated its bank debt and gold hedge book, giving it wider exposure to the rising gold price.
The Vancouver-based miner said it had delivered the last 10,972 ounces of gold that was hedged at the end of the third quarter, and paid its final debt installment of $2.1 million on Monday.

"Currently Eldorado does not have any gold or foreign currency hedge and is in a position to benefit from future increases in gold price," Chief Executive and President Paul Wright said in a statement.

The company said the Sao Bento mine in Minas Gerais state was expected to meet or exceed the company`s 2002 production target of 105,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of $185 an ounce. October`s output was 10,050 ounces at a cash cost of $167 an ounce.

Eldorado also has four gold properties in western Turkey.
Its shares were unchanged at C$1.55 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday afternoon.

The company`s stock has risen 474.07 percent this year, reaching a 52-week high of C$1.78 on Nov. 12, in line with other junior gold companies that have benefited from the rise in the gold price.
($1=$1.57 Canadian)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1095

Tuesday, November 26, 2002


The Tax Shift Racket


By Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.


..........


Every new president in memory has plotted a grand "tax reform," and the outlines of George W.`s are becoming ever more clear. The Washington Post reports that the administration—particular treasury secretary Paul O`Neill—is seriously considering a move away from the income tax toward a national consumption tax.

The purpose is not to yield lower taxes. On the contrary. One Treasury official quoted in the story complains that it is "inherently difficult to measure income…there are just too many ways to minimize it." Neither is anyone talking about eliminating the income tax altogether. The idea would be to gradually shift from one method to the other as the predominant means of scarfing up the people`s property.

In other words, we may watch a repeat of an old Washington trick, called the tax shift. The tax shift is one of the great games of government. In the game, the government uses the prospect of lowering one tax in order to buy support for raising another. The proposal to move from an income tax to a consumption tax is a good example of the game.

The essential key to understanding the trick is to realize that the government wants money and is going to get it one way or another. Zig zagging from one method to another does not change the reality. But it can fool the gullible. And it can raise a lot of money from affected groups during the transition period.

One helpful way to understand this is to think of a robber who promises to stop coming through your front door if you promise to leave open the back door. So it is with the state that promises to stop taxing your income if you let it tax your consumption. The issue is not the method; it is the amount.

The case for the consumption over the income tax rests on these essential claims:

1. The consumption tax is at least voluntary. Actually, it is just as coercive as any tax. Under the income tax, if I earn income and don`t pay the tax, I can be fined and jailed. Under the consumption tax , if I want to consume a tax item and don`t pay the tax, I get fined and jailed.

It`s true that I can choose not to consume that item. Similarly, under the income tax, I can choose not to earn income. Nothing is voluntary if I am not permitted to exempt myself. There is no such thing as a voluntary tax. If there were, it would be called something else. (The lottery isn`t a tax; it is a government-run enterprise.)

2. The consumption tax doesn`t tax production. Yes it does. Businesses don`t set their own prices, which is why they cannot simply pass on the consumption tax to the consumer. If they could raise their prices without its affecting their profits, they would have already done so. Imposing a new tax on a business, ceteris paribus, the business will have to absorb the cost of that consumer tax into its own operations. In this way, the consumption tax is a tax on production, wages, research, investment, and every other aspect of economic life.

3. Consumption tax is easier to collect. Assuming this to be true, why is this necessarily a good thing? A tax that is hard to collect suggests that it less tempting to increase. What`s more, a consumption tax might be easy to collect at 1%. But to replace the federal tax with a national consumption tax would require a tax of some 25%, while some estimates even put the replacement rate above 50%. Any tax on this level would throw markets into chaos, create an overnight black market in everything, and give a great excuse for massive despotism and mandatory record keeping.

4. The consumption tax doesn`t tax savings. Generally this is true. But the government should not be in the business of prodding us into a particular pattern of saving and consumption. It should leave that up to us. Saving is great to the extent it reflects individual preferences. Consumption is great in the same way. But there is no way to know a priori what the right mix should be. And think of this: the degree to which the consumption tax discourages consumption is the same degree to which it does not raise revenue. How does the tax-hungry state deal with that paradox?

As an aside, note that income saved today will be taxed twice, once when income was taxed and once when consumption is taxed. This is grossly unfair. Also, the consumption tax diminishes the value of savings. The only point to saving is eventual consumption. The reduced purchasing power of the dollar after the tax is imposed is imputed to the value of money available for consumption, i.e. savings.

5. The consumption tax, whatever its problem, is at least not progressive. Far too much is made of the flat versus progressivity issue. Think of it this way. Would you rather pay a flat 40% tax, or finagle your way through a system with 20 different rates ranging from 1% to 39% (all else being equal)? If you knew that you would pay less under a progressive system, that is the one you would favor. This why the flat tax has never gone anywhere politically: it necessarily means raising some taxes while reducing others.

The champions of the consumption tax, particularly those who claim to support free markets, need to redirect their energies, away from the method of taxation to its level. They need to adopt the general principle that whatever the existing tax, it should be lower and lower. Going back to the robber analogy, the ideal system would be to have every door and window bolted down solidly.

Let`s not reform taxes. Let`s eliminate them, starting with the income tax. That is not unrealistic. The income tax this year will yield $1 trillion for the federal government. Cutting that amount gives us a budget equal to the federal budget of 1987. Was the government intolerably small back then?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr., is president of the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama and editor of Lewrockwell.com. Send him MAIL. For more on all these issues discussed here, see the Frederick L. Maier Taxation Archive.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/goldheart.html

GoldHeart/GEGFI Buy/Sell Indicator

The GoldHeart Indicator was developed using the GOLD-EAGLE Gold Fund Index (GEGFI).

http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/gegfi.html

It shows when gold equities are in "oversold" or "overbought" conditions. An oversold condition presents a timely opportunity to add to share positions, while an overbought condition presents the opportunity to take profits on trading positions.

Overbought conditions, or sell signals, occur when the indicator approaches 20 or below on the indicator chart. While oversold conditions, or buy signals, occur when the indicator approaches 80 or above. These regions demonstrate good correlation to future turning points in the gold equities market.

Ideally, buy and sell zones should be used to begin dollar cost averaging in and out of positions. Examination of past GEGFI correlation with the GoldHeart Indicator demonstrate reasonably reliable price reversal areas. Consequently, the indicator should help investors to make more prudent and timely buys and sells.

Indicator last updated November 25, 2002



Current Interpretation: The recent overbought short term condition that was anticipated has presented several opportunities for the addition of any new shares to our core positions. This short-term volatility is just about complete. Gold and gold share prices have showed great resiliency, and core positions remain predominantly intact. For those investors that watch these markets too closely, what can we say, but what a ride!

One thing we should all be sensing is that we are still on the long road to positive Gold and share price change. Our core positions remain in our clutches, and our Gold hope is high. They have not shaken us out! Have they?

Prices should begin to steady again here, and resume our up trend based on intermediate and long term price conditions. Let’s see how things proceed. (November 16, 2002)

GoldHeart Indicator Disclaimer
The GoldHeart Indicator is merely another technical tool an investor may take into account as part of his total Due Diligence. The data used to create the GoldHeart Indicator are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. Furthermore, past performance of this indicator in forecasting reversals may not be construed as indicative of its future performance. Moreover, the GoldHeart Indicator should not be construed to constitute personal investment advice. You should always make investment decisions based on your own personal due diligence. The indicator is solely provided for informational purposes.

[ThaiGuru]

Immerhin 25 Milliarden US Dollar Schulden bringt die Firma El Paso auf die Waage, und eben diese wurden von Moody`s heute als "Junk" eingestuft.

Standard & Poor`s Investment Advisory Service kann sich gut vorstellen, dass sich der Aktienpreis halbieren könnte.

Schöne Aussichten!

Und nicht vergessen wieder mal einen zusätzlichenKrüger Rand in Gold zu kaufen. Heute gerade wieder zu vom Gold Cabal subventionierten Preisen zu haben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://quote.bloomberg.com

Top Financial News

11/26 13:51

El Paso Credit Ratings Cut to Junk Level by Moody`s

By Mark Johnson


New York, Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- El Paso Corp. had credit ratings on $25 billion of debt cut to junk by Moody`s Investors Service on concern the company must sell assets to make up a cash shortfall and may incur more costs to exit energy trading.

El Paso bonds and shares fell. The downgrade will trigger calls by lenders for more collateral for the company`s energy trading business, El Paso said. The largest owner of U.S. natural- gas pipelines also faces penalties on federal charges of price manipulation in California, Moody`s said.

Failure to keep an investment-grade rating may force El Paso to expand assets sales that so far this year exceed $2.7 billion. The Houston-based company, whose shares are down 76 percent this year, has sold $2 billion in securities. El Paso has shed workers and plans to quit energy trading after a decline in that business led to a third-quarter loss of $69 million.

``When a company gets into junk status, it is a slope so slippery that its almost impossible not to get sucked down,`` said Craig Shere, an equity analyst at Standard & Poor`s Investment Advisory Service, who rates the stock ``avoid`` and doesn`t own any. ``The stock could fall by half and it wouldn`t surprise me.``

The rating on El Paso`s senior unsecured debt was cut to Ba2, the third-highest rating below investment grade, from Baa3, the lowest investment-grade rating, Moody`s said in a statement.

Shares of El Paso fell $1, or 9.4 percent, to $9.68 at 1:48 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, after earlier falling as much as $1.35.

Bonds Fall

The company`s 7 percent coupon notes maturing in 2011 fell about 5 cents to 69.5 cents on the dollar from 74.5 cents, traders said. That pushed up the yield to 13.1 percent from 11.9 percent.

The downgrade will force El Paso to draw $1.5 billion from its $3 billion revolving credit line that expires in May 2003 to meet the requirements, the pipeline company said. El Paso said it has $4.2 billion available in cash and credit lines. It has $700 million in cash on hand and another $1 billion credit line that expires in May 2004.

Moody`s assigned a negative outlook for El Paso because of concern about an allegation by an administrative law judge with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, who said the company withheld gas supplies to boost prices during California`s energy crisis.

El Paso faces a hearing Dec. 2 before the commission after Chief Administrative Law Judge Curtis Wagner ruled in September that the company could have delivered at least 10 percent more gas to California during the energy crisis had it run the line at or above the maximum allowable operating pressure.

`Will Be Vindicated`

Moody`s has acted ``based upon the uncertainties associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission process, rather than waiting for the actual results,`` El Paso Chief Executive Officer William Wise said in the statement. ``We continue to believe that our position will be vindicated.``

El Paso, the third-largest electricity trader in North America and the sixth largest in natural gas, is liquidating energy contracts worth $968 million within two years, executives said.

A credit-rating cut typically means higher costs for a company`s future borrowing because investors demand more yield to hold lower-rated securities. A reduction to junk can swell bond yields the most because of selling by money managers who aren`t permitted to hold speculative-grade bonds.

``It is regrettable that Moody`s has largely ignored this progress and has acted based upon the uncertainties associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission process, rather than waiting for the actual results,`` Wise said. ``We continue to believe that our position will be vindicated.``

(A conference call on the downgrade can be heard at 2 p.m. New York time by dialing [phone], or through the El Paso Web site at www.elpaso.com in the ``For Investors`` section.)

[Dottore Lupo]

Aha..Gold steigt und der Dollar fällt LOL.

Votro...der Rand stieg von 13,3 auf aktuell 9,1 du Trott.l

willst den Leuten hier erzählen das die Kaffern Geld verdienen...die bilanzieren in Rand...das ist pfeifen im Wald....und DROOY kaufe ich noch bei 2.5 T€uretten.

cu DL

[ThaiGuru]

@Lupilein/Granitbiss

Schön dass eine Ikone Du wieder einmal im Thread zu Besuch bist!

Weiss zwar nicht von was Du heute geschwafelt hast, aber das wusstest Du ja selbst noch nie so genau.

Weisst Du noch am 25.02.02, wo Du vor der austrl. Goldmine Kingsgate *KCN* eindringlich gewarnt hast, und beim damaligen Einsteigerpreis von gerade mal ca. 1.50 A$ ...Achtung Betrug!!! geschwafelt hast. In der Zwischenzeit steht die Kingsgate *KCN* heute jedoch schon bei 3.17 austrl. Dollars.



Warst wohl schon immer etwas verwirrt, ein idi.t halt, und immer daneben mit Deinen Aussagen.

Zum besseren Verständnis weiter unten, nochmals Deine messerscharfe "Analyse" zur Kingsgate *KCN* Lupilein.

Lass doch Deine Analysen in Zukunft besser bleiben Du Pfeife.

Das war jetzt nicht persönlich gemeint gewesen, sondern nur ein Tip unter Freunden, Lupilein.

Gruss

ThaiGuru


#1 von Dottore Lupo 25.02.02 17:51:02 Beitrag Nr.: 5.667.410 5667410
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben

Heute wird KCN gnadenlos hochgezogen!!!!

Förtschi-Boy und der Makler zocken ab...Achtung Betrug!!!

CU DL

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

November 26, 2002 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $317.50 an ounce, down 30 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Most gold trading activity will remain confined to the switching of exposure out of the Dec contract and into the Feb contract ahead of first notice day on the Dec contract Wednesday, dealers said. Trading is expected to remain in a tight range on thin volume ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday and the shortened trading day on Friday. The gold market is seeking neutral territory with few wanting to be short over the weekend with United Nations arms inspectors in Iraq and violence flaring up again in the Kashmir region on the border of nuclear rivals India and Pakistan. Monday`s trading "saw a return to the more bearish fundamental backdrop of dollar strength versus the euro" as well as the Bush administration`s "general progress" in enlisting international backing to help reduce the risk of any unexpected negative effects growing out of conflict with Iraq, said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, an energy research provider. But despite the fundamentals, Garrett doesn`t expect a great deal of aggressive selling ahead of the extended holiday weekend. Metals trading on Nymex will be closed Thursday and Friday. Gold also ignored a report by bullion bank JP Morgan Chase which said that Australian mining companies had cut their gold hedge books by 3.2 percent or 743,000 ounces in the September quarter from the preceding quarter, when hedges were reduced 9.2 percent.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $317.50 an ounce, down 50 cents from $318.00 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold is expected to remain muted until the release of key U.S. data Tuesday, with the third quarter gross domestic product and consumer confidence figures. Of interest will also be U.S. dollar strength and the direction of U.S. equities markets. Gold also remains supported on geopolitical concerns. Gold prices could continue to trade between $315 and $322 an ounce for the rest of the year, or at least until the market gets any significant news on Iraq, said TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore. Dec. 8, the U.N.-set deadline for Iraq to disclose details on its weapons programs, will be a key date, he added.

Earlier gold fell $2.10 in Hong Kong to $318.45. Tuesday, the U.S. dollar slid against the yen, making gold cheaper in yen terms and prompting some Japanese traders to buy gold, said a Hong Kong-based trader. The buying pushed gold up to $318.85 an ounce, but fell slightly after a European bank and an Australian bank started selling, said the Hong Kong-based trader. In the near term, gold continues to be pressured by selling from U.S.-based funds, which could liquidate their long positions further ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday. But no aggressive selling is expected as market participants would like to hedge themselves against any flare-up of tensions in the Middle East and India, said a Sydney-based trader.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

A closely watched consumer confidence index rebounded to 84.1 in November from 79.6 in October and snapped five straight months of declines, according to a private business research group. But the index missed forecasts, disappointing investors hungry for hints of a solid economic rebound to justify the Dow`s 20 percent surge from five-year lows hit in early October. Stocks fell on disappointment that consumer confidence was weaker than expected while bond prices extended early gains, pushing down yields with traders saying the report failed to support hopes for a quick return to a robust economic recovery. Most of the index`s gain came from optimism on the economy`s six-month outlook. But 27.5 percent of those surveyed said jobs were hard to get -- the largest amount in more than eight years. A rise in this index tends to foreshadow a move up in the jobless rate, currently at 5.6 percent.

U.S. gross domestic product, a measure of all output within the country`s borders, rose at a revised 4.0 percent annual rate in the July-September period after an anemic 1.3 percent gain in the preceding quarter, the Commerce Department said. Commerce originally estimated third-quarter growth at a 3.1 percent pace. The revised growth rate came in above Wall Street economists` forecasts for a 3.8 percent gain. However, with a build-up in business inventories one of the main drivers of the upward GDP revision and corporate spending falling, economists said the report was an ill omen for the fourth quarter, when inventories may not offer the same kick. The report showed a 0.7 percent drop in business spending on facilities and equipment - the eighth consecutive quarterly decline - as the revisions erased a previously reported gain. However, within that category, spending on equipment and software staged a second straight quarterly advance. A collapse in business spending led the economy into recession last year, and analysts say a solid rise in corporate outlays is needed to ensure a healthy, sustainable recovery.

Sales at U.S. chain stores were flat in November, two reports on Tuesday showed, suggesting American consumers may be too worried about the economy and their jobs to go out and shop with gusto this holiday season. As retailers nervously await "Black Friday," the official start of the holiday sales season, which begins the day after Thanksgiving, consumers appear to be holding tightly to their wallets. One weekly report on the nation`s chain stores, published by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg, showed a modest 0.9 percent gain in the week ended Nov. 23. But that rise comes on the heels of a 1.2 percent drop in the preceding week. A separate snapshot of the retail sector, Instinet`s Redbook report, showed sales edging 0.2 percent lower during the first three weeks of November compared with the same period in October. "Retailing and consumer spending are essentially the function of a four-letter word: j-o-b-s," said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard`s Retail Consulting Group. "Jobs are not plentiful today; American companies are not in the process of hiring new workers. They are in the process of firing them. "This is not the kind of economic background that encourages buying binges and spending sprees," Barnard said.

New home sales dropped 4.5 percent, equating to a higher-than-expected monthly clip of 1.01 million units, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Economists had expected sales to cool, but to an even slower pace of 984,000 homes. Despite October`s downturn in sales of new homes, the year has been a robust one for residential real-estate sales overall, thanks to low mortgage rates and disappointment in other investments, such as stocks.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Tanks backed by helicopter gunships battled Palestinian gunmen during an Israeli raid in the central Gaza Strip Tuesday and troops rounded up dozens of Palestinians in the West Bank in a sweep for militants. The army operations were the latest in Israel`s drive against militant groups following a suicide bombing on a bus in Jerusalem last week that killed 11 Israelis in a resurgence of violence in a two-year-old Palestinian uprising for statehood.


Comment: Gold remains supported on growing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Kashmir region as well as weak economic data. Gold was also supported on a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and declining equities markets. Trading as thin as traders prepared to leave the market for the Thanksgiving Day holiday though there was some rollover on the December contract. Gold producers continue to unwind hedges and that has helped to give the price of gold underlying support. It was noted by some traders that there was limited bank selling in Australia and Europe as the price of gold showed signs of rising early in the day. Gold continues to remain a stable insurance investment as weak economic data plays havoc on the equities markets and real estate remains in a speculative bubble in spite of weakening sales.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.

[ThaiGuru]

Reuters

Barrick sees gold output lower in 2003

Tuesday November 26, 3:01 pm ET

TORONTO, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (Toronto:ABX.TO - News), the world`s second-largest gold miner, said on Tuesday it will produce slightly less gold next year compared with 2002, because of the scheduled closure of five depleted mines.

Barrick Chief Executive Randall Oliphant told a precious metals conference in Toronto the company was on target to produce 5.7 million ounces of gold in 2002 at a cash cost of $178 an ounce.

But the closure of the five mines in North and South America would lower output slightly, although cash costs would be similar to 2002, he added.

The company has already halted production at four of the mines: its Agua de la Falda and El Indio projects in Chile, the Bousquet mine in Canada, and the McLaughlin mine in California. The Ruby Hill mine near Eureka, Nevada, is expected to cease production this quarter.

All but two of the mines -- El Indio and Bousquet -- were acquired when Barrick bought U.S.-based Homestake last year.

Barrick plans to replace the production from the mines with a development plan that sees 2 million new ounces of gold by the end of 2006 from four new projects.

Oliphant also said that a barrage of accounting changes over the past 12 months from regulators was starting to show on the company`s balance sheet.

But they would not affect the performance or potential of Barrick`s mines or growth pipeline, he said. Oliphant did not say how much the changes would affect earnings.

He said new reclamation rules from Jan. 1 will likely push amortization and interest-like expenses higher, which will hit earnings but not cash flow.

"We can`t put a number on it now, as our accounting and environmental groups are still working on the issue, but as with depreciation, it will have an impact on earnings but will not have an impact on cash flow," he said.

"We won`t be paying any more or any less in reclamation costs, it simply represents a change in the accounting recognition of these costs over time," he added.

He said changes, for example, would also affect exploration and development costs.

"This year we will expense exploration and development costs related to both our new discovery at Alto Chicama as well as Veladero," he said, adding,

"With the strong exploration program we`re running next year, we expect to expense the same amount. So in accounting terms, along with every new discovery comes an initial `earnings penalty`, although that`s a price we think our shareholders are happy to see us pay, because it leads to greater reserves and production, and in our case, low cost ounces."

Once one of the biggest hedgers in the business, Oliphant confirmed that the company was reducing its gold forward sales program to 12 million ounces by the end of 2003 from 18 million at the end of the second quarter of 2002.

This is a reduction to 15 percent of total reserves at the end of 2003 from 22 percent in the second quarter.

Barrick shares were off 16 Canadian cents at C$22.99 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday afternoon.

($1=$1.57 Canadian)

[ThaiGuru]

Reuters

Investors pull $7.7 bln from stock funds in Oct.

Tuesday November 26, 3:53 pm ET


NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Investors pulled a net $7.71 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds in October, an industry trade group said on Tuesday.

The outflow comes after investors withdrew a net $16.1 billion in September, according to the group, the Investment Company Institute.

Bond funds, meanwhile, had a net inflow of $6.3 billion in October, compared with an inflow of $15.39 billion in September.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[Magniafazulaa]

Analystenbericht vom 27.11.02

Kölner Anzeiger

Et kütt wie et kütt

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report:

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.93, PM $2.23, with world gold at $318.80 and $317.90. At and above legal import point. One hears that a great deal of gold has been sold into India in the past week or so: but they are still coming.

Which is more than can be said for the Japanese. Disheartened by gold’s $4 bushwhacking in Western time zones yesterday, and by a strengthening of the yen, local operators offered little opposition to the situation they encountered on the opening. The active TOCOM contract lost 16 yen, total volume dropped 40% to the equivalent of 15,759 Comex contracts, and $US gold was static (+10c). Open interest did manage a 1,281 Comex lot increase. (NY on Monday recorded huge volume of 80,500, a startling 61% above the estimated volume yesterday: even after netting out 39,000 switches - a heavy day.)

The gold market has essentially refused to obey commentators’ orders so far this week. Volumes have been heavy, the predicted slow down before the weekend has not happened, and the liquidation of the spec long position has also not happened. Sadly, from the viewpoint of gold’s friends, the abrupt loss of momentum of the US stock market today also did not help:

"Gold leapfrogs higher after US consumer data"
headlined Reuters:
quoting a London trader saying:

"It caught the market short, myself included...maybe if funds get hold of it, we could see it pushed up to $320.00"

Dream on! A $1 1/2 rally in the NY morning provoked an explosion of volume, followed by another in the early afternoon as gold was smashed down to close virtually at its low for the day. Comex estimated a huge 75,000 contracts traded, of which less than 36,000 were rollovers. Someone is still watching us

Which makes the growing attention being paid to Fed Governor Beranke’s astonishingly belligerent speech last week doubly relevant.

"The Most Important Federal Reserve Speech In Years" – The Gartman Letter

While from the point of view of anyone normally concerned about the integrity of the financial system the speech was alarming – as the always observant John Crudele points out:

http://www.nypost.com/business/62893.htm

the gold market student will be intrigued by Beranke’s remark

"at times of extreme threat to financial stability, the Federal Reserve stands ready to use the discount window and other tools to protect the financial system, as it did during the1987 stock market crash and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks...."

as well as by his arrogant assertion that the Fed can expand the list of assets it buys, apparently without restraint. As Gartman dryly notes:

"If purchases of foreign government debt obligations are allowable, then it is but a small leap to the purchase of corporate debt, or even eventually corporate equity."

Even if one accepts that these actions are taken with the best interests of the nation at heart, some subsequent accounting would be nice – after all 1987 is half a generation ago. Also, can gold possibly have been overlooked on all this maneuvering?

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

November 26 - Gold $317.50 down 30 cents - Silver $4.43 down 3 cents

A Time to Focus on the Doughnut, Not the Hole

Today was a real snore. There is very little to get into, gold wise. However, I suspect this is the quiet before the coming gold storm. Thus, it is a good time to focus on our gold investments and why we are in them. That has been laid out over and over again in Midas commentary over the past weeks, months and years. While gold has been dead in the water the past six months, it still remains the number one performing market sector this past year. The serious money is still to be made. With Thanksgiving in America right around the corner, it is a good time to focus on what we have and where we are going, or on the doughnut, and not on this near-term tedium, or the hole.

Once again, for at least the 6th day in a row, the AM Fix ($318) was higher than the PM Fix ($317.50). What are the odds of that? The reason is the coordinated selling pressure coming from the cabal traders in the US. The physical market takes gold higher in overseas trading. Then, the derivative traders take gold lower in the US.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Einfach unglaublich, was die FED, über ihren Governor Ben Bernanke da ganz offen bekannt gibt.

"Einfach neues Geld (Dollars) praktisch in jeder Menge, und dazu noch fast kostenlos Drucken, bis die USA Wirtschaft wieder anspringt."

Das Ergebnis ist Hyperinflation, ein massiver Wertzerfall des Dollars, fallende Börsen, und stark steigende Goldpreise!

So naiv kann doch nicht einmal die FED sein, die übrigens eine privat Bank ist, und nicht dem amerikanischen Staat gehört, wie viele Investoren fälschlicherweise immer noch glauben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.nypost.com/business/62893.htm



STOP THE PRESSES: USING PLAY DOUGH WOULD BE WRONG

By JOHN CRUDELE

November 26, 2002 --

FEDERAL Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke may have gotten himself into some hot water by saying the one thing that no one in his position should say: we`ll just print more money if the economy doesn`t respond to traditional remedies.

Bernanke, who (may) have another two years left in his term, made the outrageous comment in a speech to a group of economists last week in Washington.



RESERVED JUDGEMENT:

A comment made by Ben Bernanke, member of the Federal Reserve board of governors, could just as easily have panicked investors.
- Bloomberg

The governor was trying to explain what would happen if the U.S. gets hit by deflation - falling prices and declining asset values. But the comment could just as easily have panicked investors who know that such an action could render the U.S. currency worthless.

Here`s exactly what the economist - who went to Harvard and M.I.T., where they apparently don`t teach the lesson of between-the-wars Germany - had to say when the issue of the ineffectiveness of the Fed`s 12 interest rate cuts came up.

"The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press - or today, its electronic equivalent - that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost," Bernanke is quoted as saying.

No cost!!??

The printing press image is a hot button with economists because that`s exactly what the Germans did in the 1920s when that country was faced with huge budget deficits because of World War I.

After it printed enormous amounts of currency that country`s inflation became rampant, leading to an image that everybody from the war generation remembers - the German people in the 1920s having to bring wheelbarrows full of money to the store for groceries.

Those economic problems eventually led to the political upheavals in Germany that brought Adolph Hitler to power.

Enough said? Bernanke should shut up.

Someone close to the Fed tells me that Bernanke`s comment didn`t go unnoticed inside the Central Bank and that the matter would be brought up at a future meeting.

When I asked yesterday about the printing press comment, Bernanke issued the following statement:

"I wanted to reassure my listeners of two things. First, that I do not believe we face such an extreme situation, and second that the government has a full range of tools to deal with a deflationary spiral in the very unlikely event we were to face it," he said.

"I am committed to a policy that fosters price stability, meaning a very low and stable rate of inflation.

Bernanke`s remarks last week came at a time when, I`m told, the Federal Reserve was very concerned about the economy`s lack of response to an amazing one dozen rate cuts, which have brought the fed funds rate down to an extraordinarily low 1.25 percent.

Even though interest rates are at a 40-year low, the economy is growing only at a modest 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

What`s bothering the Fed the most, I`m told, is that companies don`t seem inclined to spend, either because they lack faith in the economy, are worried about terrorism, disheartened by corporate scandals or - most likely - all those things.

And without corporate cooperation, the nation`s payrolls won`t improve.

Last week both Bernanke and Fed chairman Alan Greenspan made the rounds to allay fears that the U.S. could see a period of deflation - when prices fall and assets lose their value.

While that`s a remote possibility, there is a reasonable chance that the Fed will soon run out of maneuvering room on interest rates and be unable to stimulate the economy is traditional ways.

The trouble is, even a hint of running the printing press overtime could have untold consequences. First, the dollar`s value could fall abruptly - which it hasn`t - and foreigners could flee U.S. markets, which also hasn`t happened.

If foreign investors take a hike, interest rates will rise abruptly and the U.S. economy could suffer a devastating blow - the complete opposite of what the Fed has been trying to accomplish.

* Please send e-mail to:

[e-mail]

[Gringo1]

"kostenlos" ?

fragt sich für wen. Für die FED sicher, für div. Konzerne und Banken ebenfalls, zahlen muß das dumme Ami-Volk.

Eine Hypo-Kreide nach der anderen, bis es BOOOOM macht...

The american way of life

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,2276,65069,0…

November 27, 2002

US states in dire fiscal straits: report

(WASHINGTON) US states are facing the direst fiscal straits since World War II, as a slumping stock market and slow economic growth reduce tax revenue and drain reserve funds, according to a report issued yesterday.

The National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers in a report say that 37 states were forced to reduce their budgets by US$12.8 billion in fiscal 2002, which ended on June 30.

`It`s going to be very tough sledding this year, and the problem is going to be around for a while,` said Raymond Scheppach, executive director of the National Governors Association. `Even when the economy recovers, this problem is going to lag.` Midway through the current fiscal year, 23 states plan to reduce their budgets by over US$8.3 billion, according to the associations.

Mr Scheppach said last year marked the first time since the 1940s that states` revenue has fallen from the previous year. Revenue was down 6 per cent in 2002, he said, and may not increase again this year.

Personal income taxes in 2002 were 12.8 per cent lower than states had projected, while corporate income taxes were 21.5 per cent less than projected, according to the report. Sales tax collections were 3.2 per cent lower than budgeted.

Last week, the National Conference of State Legislatures said states face a shortfall of US$17.5 billion for the current fiscal year, according to a poll of legislative fiscal officers.

The states` report reflects the budget woes of the federal government, which is headed for its second straight annual budget deficit.

The Congressional Budget Office projects a second straight deficit for the fiscal year that began on Oct 1. Last year`s deficit was the largest since 1995 and ended the longest string of budget surpluses since the years leading up to the Great Depression. - Bloomberg

[Gringo1]

Physisches Gold - Strong buy

Hab gerade wiedermal Philharmoniker und Krüger-Rand in meiner Hausbank in Österreich bestellt.

Zu meinem Erstaunen hieß es "Prozente gibt es nicht mehr, habe keine Pouvoir mehr".
Lagernd hatten sie auch nichts mehr, und das in einen Land in dem Gold eine große Tradition hat.

Den neuen Philharmoniker mit €-Nominalwert hatten sie auch nicht mehr lagernd, nur mehr ein paar mit ÖS-GGwert.

Die Luft wird immer dünner ...

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?flash=yes&action=p…



United States Mint Launches “Genuine United States Mint” Ad Campaign

Holiday Ads Begin November 29

Washington – The United States Mint today announced plans to launch a new holiday advertising campaign, “Genuine United States Mint,” featuring core products that the public has a long-standing tradition of purchasing as holiday gifts. Ads will begin appearing in periodicals and airing nationally on November 29, and will run through December 20, 2002.


“This is the ideal time of year to reach out to new customers,” said United States Mint Director Henrietta Holsman Fore. “We want to let the public know that the ‘United States Mint’ brand stands for the highest quality products that can be shared by generations of Americans. Our customers should expect nothing less from their official National mint.”


The ad campaign will reintroduce products to people who have memories of coin collecting from childhood, and introduce a new generation to the hobby. The featured products will be the United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set®; the United States Mint Proof Set®; the United States Mint 50 State Quarters Proof SetTM; the United States Mint Silver Proof SetTM; and American Eagle Silver, Gold, and Platinum Proof Coins.


The ads will focus on gift giving, coin collecting as a family tradition, American history, and United States Mint products as cultural icons. The holiday campaign will cost $2.5 million and air nationally on both cable and network television. Ads will also appear in USA Today, Newsweek, TV Guide and People.


Created by Congress in 1792, the United States Mint is a manufacturing and international marketing enterprise with about 2,300 employees. In FY 2001, the United States Mint produced approximately 23.6 billion coins, fulfilling its primary mission to produce an adequate supply of circulating coinage for the Nation`s commerce. For more information, please visit http://www.usmint.gov.


Contact: Press inquiries: Michael White [phone]
Customer Service information: (800) USA MINT (872-6468)

[ThaiGuru]

Noch mehr Schulden!

Die 3% Neuverschuldungslimite war seit längerer Zeit schon nicht mehr zu halten. Vor allem wegen Deutschland, und Frankreich.

Früher tönte es aus deutschen Munden jeweils ganz anders.
Aber was soll`s, Richtlinien dreht man halt gerade so herum wie sie benötigt werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/apbiz_story.asp?categ…



Wednesday, November 27, 2002 · Last updated 5:39 a.m. PT

EU Offers to Relax Euro Budgetary Rules

By CONSTANT BRAND
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The European Union`s head office proposed relaxing budgetary rules governing the euro on Wednesday, seeking to ease restrictions on governments struggling to meet targets in an economic slowdown.

The proposed reform comes after Germany - the EU`s largest economy - failed to stick to the "stability pact" when it exceeded the EU`s rule that the budget deficit may be no more than 3 percent of the nation`s gross domestic product.

France is precariously close to exceeding the 3 percent limit and Portugal became the first to violate the ceiling earlier this year.

Under the revised plan, EU governments will be allowed to increase investment spending beyond the pact`s targets if they have low debts and deficits, economic and monetary affairs commissioner Pedro Solbes said.

The plan would still force highly indebted euro group members like Italy to make greater efforts to reign in their spending and keeps the goal of reaching balanced budgets by 2004 intact.

"We will continue to act in a decisive and robust manner if deficits breach the 3 percent of GDP ... or if member states fail to achieve and sustain budget positions of close to balance or in surplus," Solbes told a news conference.

He added that under the existing interpretation of the rules, EU governments were "not playing their role in exerting peer pressure on countries that miss budgetary targets," and warned that such an approach "endangers the credibility" of the euro currency.

Flexibility has been a key demand of Britain, which is not in the 12-nation eurozone, but has a low debt level and wants to spend more on public health, transport and schools. Britain is considering on holding a referendum to join the euro.

EU officials said they hoped the changes will be approved by EU governments over the next three months.

While showing flexibility in spending rules, the Commission plan also toughens penalties on nations that fail to control public debt by calling for "more rigorous" monitoring and hefty fines if they do not attempt to lower debts.

Critics of the stability pact claim the rules ignore economic cycles by demanding tight controls on spending during economic downturns.

European Commission president Romano Prodi has even called the pact "stupid," and said the rules should be more versatile.

"We must learn from experience and implement the stability and growth pact more intelligently," Prodi said Wednesday.

The Commission said last week Germany`s deficit would reach 3.8 percent of gross domestic product this year and is recommending possible sanctions under the pact which calls for fines for governments that break the 3 percent threshold.

The EU`s head office highlighted other worrisome signs in German spending. It said Berlin`s gross debt will rise to 60.9 percent of GDP this year, up from 59.5 percent and above the recommended maximum of 60 percent to join the euro currency.

The EU head office also gave a less severe "early warning" to France, because it risks breaking the eurozone`s three percent deficit rule next year.

[granitbiss]

Damit alle gut von mir denken, beginne ich auch mal mit dem "kopieren"

aus kitco com:


Turk goes so far as to reference Robert Prechter`s Elliott Wave forecast - that the price of gold will move below $200 an ounce before finally ending its 22-year bear market.

[Statz]

Hallo Goldgemeinde,

wie erklärt Ihr Euch die tägliche Werbung auf NTV für Gold:
"Investieren Sie einen Teil Ihres Kapitals in Gold, zu Erwerben bei allen Banken und Sparkassen"
...wer will da in größeren Mengen Positionen verkaufen, bzw. wer hat diese Werbung geschaltet ?!

[ThaiGuru]

@Statz

Dies ist eine neue Werbe Kampagne der Vereinigung der Goldproduzenten, respektive deren Organ,

World Gold Council



http://www.gold.org/value/invest/index.html



REUTERS/ World Gold Council

[jeffery2]

Die Krüppel machen noch den Humidor zur Sau, das kriegen die fertig.
J2

[bluemoons]

Gold kaufen – Aktien verkaufen

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Die Aktien steigen weiter – gestern ging es allerdings bergab. Wird die Rallye weitergehen? Die meisten Investoren würden derzeit Aktien dem Gold bevorzugen. Der Dow Jones ist seit dem Boden schließlich wieder um 20 % gestiegen.

Aber ich warne Sie wiederum ... nehmen Sie das Geld nicht zu ernst. Am besten ist es, dem Geld nicht zuviel Aufmerksamkeit zu widmen. Sonst kann man es sich mit dem Geld verderben.

Ich versuche, das Richtige zu machen, was nicht zwangsläufig das intelligenteste ist. Da kein Kalender das Ende von Rallyes und Bärenmärkten anzeigt, kann ich nur essentiellen Prinzipien folgen. Ich versuche, das Richtige zu tun, und hoffe darauf, dass es sich auszahlt. Wenn es sicht nicht auszahlt, nun ... dann sollte es sich auszahlen.

Deshalb kaufe ich Gold und verkaufe Aktien. Weil Investoren immer niedrig kaufen und hoch verkaufen sollten. Aktien notieren hoch (von der Bewertung her), und Gold niedrig. Selbst wenn Gold nur seinen Wert hält, bin ich damit schon zufrieden.

Ich habe festgestellt, dass die Dinge oft dahin zurückgehen, wo sie eigentlich hingehören. Am Ende der Amtszeit von US-Präsident Carter konnte man für den Preis einer Unze Gold alle im Dow Jones enthaltenen Aktien kaufen. In den Clinton-Jahren erforderte dies 38 Unzen Gold. Beides sind Übertreibungen gewesen. Derzeit braucht man 28 Unzen Gold für dieses Vorhaben. Ich glaube, dass es noch ein relativ weiter Weg ist, bis wir wieder ein "normales" Verhältnis erreicht haben.

investorverlag

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Posts/gold.htm

GOLD

The fundamental situation for Gold is building inexorably toward an imminent upside explosion.

The geopolitical situation is growing more intense on multiple fronts, and there is clearly a substantially increased risk of multiple "spectacular" terrorist actions against Western interests.

The Dollar is weak, and both EURUSD and GBPUSD are primed to escape from important long-term channels. Although the European currencies will outperform the Dollar, they too will be vulnerable to shocks and thus the true safe haven of last resort from paper -- Gold -- will appreciate most in a severe crisis.

Technically, the market is now exactly at a point with remarkable historical similarity that also has elements implying even more bullishness for the current situation.

In the Monthly Bar Chart shown below for the continuous back-adjusted Gold Futures contract, the current position at the apex of the red triangle is identical to the position in the red triangle of mid-1986.



To establish the correspondence, start with the large impulse drop from SEP80 to JUN82 (thick green bar), which was followed by a 50% retracement to FEB83 (thin green bar).

The recent version of this movement is represented by the large impulse drop from FEB96 to AUG99 (thick magenta bar), which was followed by a matching 50% retracement to OCT99 (thin magenta bar).

Next, in the original case the market fell to a double bottom in FEB85, and then rallied (thin blue bar) in an up-sideways-up manoeuvre to a peak in JAN86 which marked the start of the 6-month red triangle. The upside breakout in JUN86 then launched a sharp 3-month rally which eventually continued to a peak in DEC87 and had a total magnitude from the base of the triangle (thick blue bar) that was exactly twice the initial manoeuvre.

In the present case the market fell to a double bottom in APR01, and then rallied (thin yellow bar) in an up-sideways-up manoeuvre to a peak in JUN02 which marked the start of the matching 6-month red triangle. The anticipated upside breakout in NOV02 should launch a 3-bar rally to JAN03.

Note that the two cases are also linked by the horizontal dotted blue band exactly at the 330 level marking the bottom of the 1986 red triangle and the top of the 2002 red triangle.

Several important points to note:

First, the trough in FEB85 (start of thin blue bar) was slightly lower (falling dark blue arrow) than the previous trough in JUN82. In contrast, the trough in APR01 (start of thin yellow bar) was slightly higher (rising dark blue arrow) than the previous trough in AUG99. This difference renders the current situation more bullish.

Second, the peak in DEC87 (top of thick blue bar) was slightly lower than the previous peak in FEB83 (top of thin green bar). In contrast, the current red triangle is already positioned just under the level of the previous peak in OCT99 (top of thin magenta bar). Thus, the upside breakout will not only match the small-scale pattern, but will also signify that a larger-scale advance is underway (ie. going beyond just matching the previous peak).

Third, the upper band of the descending green channel intersects with the lower dotted grey band in NOV02 at 350. Clearly if this strong resistance point is to be taken out it will take place via a powerful gap -- exactly the type of movement consistent with a shock event.

Fourth, with the vertical distance from APR01 to JUN02 covering +75 points (thin blue bar), the double-size movement (thick blue bar) of +150 measured from the triangle base at 300 indicates a peak at 450 in JAN03. Note the compressed period for the doubling, since the broader bullish signals imply going beyond this growth factor within the total time frame indicated by the earlier case which peaked in DEC87 (ie. eventual peak in MAY04).

Fifth, the upper dotted grey band happens to be worth just under 450 in JAN03.

On a smaller scale, the market could make one more pullback to 315/312, representing the 1/2 and 3/8 retracement levels for the maximum range of the red triangle, but this manoeuvre is not strictly necessary.

FORECAST

The fundamental and technical elements are conspiring to produce a 40% surge in the USD price of Gold over the coming 3 months. The immediate small-scale structure allows for a final dip to 315/312, but with or without this last manoeuvre, an upside break of 329 would signal a direct acceleration to a major long-term inflection point crossing 350. Acquiring long positions at that time may become difficult as the 350 barrier is likely to be pierced via an enormous gap driven by an exogenous tragedy. Volatile trading should push to 400 before falling back sharply and then continuing as far as 450 at the end of JAN03. A decline through 310 is not anticipated but would signal further consolidation back to 295 without voiding the eventual upside scenario.

[ThaiGuru]

November 27 - Gold $317 down 50 cents - Silver $4.41 down 2 cents

Bonds Shellacked, HUI Roars Back From A Clobbering

For at least the 7th day in a row, the London PM Fix ($317.85) was lower than the AM Fix ($318.20). This is like a broken record. Gold moves higher in overseas trading due a strong physical market and then the US gold goons take it back down – like clockwork, day after day. Gold did manage to pop up $1 higher in US trading, but was quickly put back in its place by the cabal.

Meanwhile, the CRB (230.77) rose nicely and remains at multi-year high levels, while the bond market was shellacked, falling more than 2/12 points in the cash market. Both of those market conditions are positive for gold. One can’t help but also note the dollar (106.89, up only .24) is not rallying very much as the stock market soars.

The CRB chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/13

The long bond chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C2

The bonds have broken key technical support, including the 100-day moving average. Based on what the Fed is up to, they ought to be routed in the weeks to come.

The message to the market by the Fed is they will do whatever it takes to get the stock market going again – at least, that is what they have in mind. The Fed is flooding the system with money and a good deal of it continues to be plopped in the market.

The DOW, DOG and S&P recaptured all of yesterday’s losses, plus some. Happy days are here again. The economic numbers released today were all better than expected, which gave impetus to the shares. While the stock market is running like a bat out of hell, something does not sit right. The GDP figure for the 3rd quarter was 4 %. The housing, durable good numbers and employment numbers all came in better than expected today. If all is relatively healthy with the economy, why did the Fed lower interest rates by 50 basis points and why the dramatic Fed pronouncements last week? Surely, we will have the answers in the weeks and months to come.

The best gold news of the day was the dramatic comeback of the HUI and many of the senior gold shares. The HUI and XAU were both headed towards oblivion when they turned right around very late, well after Comex had closed. The HUI had broken some key support at 115 and plummeted to 113 and change. But, it boomeranged to close up .14 on the day at 115.93. The XAU rallied back too, closing at 62.87, down only .36. I don’t know what did it, but somebody wanted IN, in a big way. A late gold share turnaround, such as we had today, is MOST unusual!

The funds dumped silver, while the trade was a buyer.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.42, PM $2.16, with world gold at $318.30 and $318.25. Ample for legal imports. As usual, gold drifted up during Indian business hours.

Although there are some faint hints of TOCOM accumulation –open interest up, by 685 Comex contracts, the second day in a row after several of liquidation, Nihon Unicom referring to "Speculative fresh buying emerging on a dip" –it is not so far powerful enough to effect the overall market. Volume, equivalent to 15,759 Comex lots, was down by 2.4%, the active contract lost 5 yen, but because of the slightly stronger yen $US gold moved up 70c from the NY close.

Most commentators appear to be on autopilot ahead of the weekend mumbling on about the possibility of large spec liquidation in New York – of which the open interest data displays no sign – and about the pre holiday lull – which the heavy Comex volume, ex switches, belies. But there is agreement that there is firm buying interest apparently prepared to turn back any raid below $318: "sustained buying interest from the physical sector helped to steady the market" is the way Standard explains the defeat of yesterday’s attempt. Unfortunately, there is also agreement – but less articulated – that selling barriers lurk above.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

November 27, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled lower at $317.00 an ounce, down 50 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold sold off in the last 15 minutes of trade on light selling after trading in a narrow range through most of the session. Gold was able to withstand the pressure of a firmer dollar and equity arena because of the reluctance to hold a short position in the gold market ahead of the Thanksgiving long weekend. Placer Dome Inc. chief executive Jay Taylor told analysts in Toronto on Wednesday that investment demand for gold will rise as Japan`s economic problems continue to worry investors. Taylor said he also expects central banks to renew the Washington Agreement in 2004. The agreement limits central bank gold sales. Several analysts expect gold to remain well supported in spite of perceived stronger economic data. Doug Pollitt of Toronto investment bank Pollitt & Co. says the nail biting is all for naught. "A breakout through $325 would certainly look good on the charts. If the wall remains intact, what`s the downside?" Pollitt cited strong physical demand for the metal, in part from mining companies that are closing their books on the practice of hedging, or forward-selling their gold. Gold Fields Mineral Services says miners` programs of eliminating their hedges contributed 255 tons of demand for gold in the first half of this year. That`s up from 38.5 tons in the first half of 2001. "Given the support beneath the market, I am surprised that no one with deep pockets and a sense of adventure has yet to try to probe the stops above the market," Pollitt says. "You know, give her a little push and see what happens. We could see a lot more demand at $340 an ounce than we ever saw at $315."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $317.85 an ounce, down 35 cents from $318.20 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold was little changed in mid-afternoon trade with the day`s mixed set of US data failing to provide much direction, dealers said. Many traders expected trade to remain range-bound ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend. "We could possibly get some activity on the TOCOM as the contracts roll over from December to February, but other than that, I see no major influences in the next few days," a London bullion trader said. "With speculators fairly long of gold and little evidence of decent physical demand around, the metal continues to trade quietly, driven by moves in forex and equity markets," John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Warburg, said in a daily report. Nymex trading was "bound to be subject to some book-squaring ... although the political background continues to suggest that if anything the bias is likely to be to the long side," Rhona O`Connell, World Gold Council analyst in London, said in a note to clients. Gold has been subdued but any upside potential is limited however, as the yen`s strength led to selling on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange, said James Moore, analyst at the Bulliondesk.com. "Gold looks comfortable to trade $315-22, with US traders expected to be buyers of the yellow metal as they position themselves ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend," he added.

Earlier gold rose 20 cents in Hong Kong to $318.65. Gold traded in a narrow range. "It looks like we could trade in this range until next month," said Pauline Hung, chief bullion dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong. "All the markets are quiet including currencies...there is no big action ahead in London, just maybe some short covering," Hung said. "The U.S. (gold) market will be closed Thursday and Friday, and this should limit Asian trade to just position squaring for the rest of this week," said a Tokyo trader. A recent J.P. Morgan report said that gold hedges by Australia`s miners declined 3.2%, or 734,000 ounces, for the quarter through September, after a 9.2% reduction during the previous quarter. "I think the trend of scaling back these hedge books will continue, so I am not troubled by this report," said the Tokyo trader.

Many analysts said the metal will continue enjoying its safe haven status next year amid a continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, low U.S. interest rates and concerns over global security. Some cited Chinese gold demand as a potential key driver of gold price next year, following China`s recent liberalization of its gold market. The next big move for gold is up, said a Singapore-based trader, who declined to be named. "The global situation warrants it, the economic situation warrants it. Will it go down? Yes, but that doesn`t change the bullish picture next year," he said, pointing to the current uncertainties that gold feeds on. Keith Goode, managing director of Sydney-based Eagle Research Advisory Pty. Ltd., is even more bullish than the Singapore-based trader. Goode forecasts gold to trade in a $325-$350 an ounce range next year and will average $335 an ounce for the year. One of the key factors that will buoy gold next year is demand from China, Goode said. "The actual (economic) growth rate that China achieves, and how much increased demand there is for gold there" could boost gold price, Goode said. Keith Huggan, an economist at Australia`s Westpac Institutional Bank, agreed, noting that last month`s opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange could help boost demand. The establishment of the exchange provides for a greater transparency in gold trading in China, Huggan said. China is "traditionally a buyer of gold because its financial system is not as sophisticated as the western countries`," he said. Trading members have said the new exchange will make trading far more efficient and pricing much closer to international prices. Prior the establishment of the exchange, the People`s Bank of China, would set prices erratically. Chinese demand is also expected to be boosted now that gold trade is exempted from the 17% value-added tax by Chinese authorities. The tax was a major hurdle to the opening of the exchange. "With Iraq, the price impact will probably be pretty short, if and when it (the attack) takes place," Westpac`s Huggan said. The threat of reprisal attacks on the U.S. or its overseas interests and allies, in retaliation for its attack on Iraq, will help gold soar even higher, said Martin Mayne, bullion dealer at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Weekly jobless claims fell to 364,000 in the week to Nov. 24. Analysts had expected a rise to 382,000. Claims in the prior week were revised upward to 381,000 from the initial 376,000, but the four-week moving average eased to 385,750 from 397,000. The claims series has been showing a steady improvement, at odds with other indicators of the labor market, leading many analysts to suspect some downward distortion from seasonal factors, though that was cold comfort to bond dealers. "As far as the drop in jobless claims is concerned, it`s hard to ascertain what part is legitimate and what part is due to seasonals, with Veterans Day on Nov. 11 and Thanksgiving coming late in the month," said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist, Banc One Capital Markets.

Consumer sentiment edged higher in November from nine-year lows in October, researchers at the University of Michigan said. The consumer sentiment index rose to 84.2 in November, up from the 80.6 in October but down from the preliminary reading of 85.0 released two weeks ago. Economists were looking for the main index to rise a bit to 85.4. Consumer confidence in the economy rebounded in November, according to market sources who had seen a report by the University of Michigan released Wednesday. The numbers showed resilience, though they didn`t quite live up to Wall Street economists` expectations for an 85.2 reading. The University of Michigan report is based on roughly 500 interviews with consumers, and is released only to subscribers. Another poll released Wednesday by ABC News/Money Magazine said consumer confidence flattened last week. According to the survey, 25 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the economy, down from 28 percent the week before. Also, 57 percent of those polled said their own finances were in good standing, unchanged from the prior week. In assessing the buying climate, 39 percent of respondents said it was good, down from 40 percent a week earlier. The consumer comfort index was based on a random survey of 1,013 respondents nationwide ended Nov. 24.

Durable goods orders rose a higher-than-expected 2.8 percent in October -- the first increase in the last three months. Also, the manufacturing sector was expanding in the Chicago region in November, according to a regional survey of corporate purchasing managers. The purchasing managers index rose to 54.3 percent in November from 45.9 percent in October. Orders for durable goods -- costly manufactured items intended to last three years or more -- rose 2.8 percent in October, the Commerce Department said. That was the first rise since July and followed a revised drop of 4.6 percent the previous month. The number beat analyst expectations of a 2.0 percent rise.


Comment: Gold traded in a tight range and is expected to remain range-bound through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The price of gold fell slightly as investors attention was diverted by today’s economic data, firmer U.S. dollar, and strong equities rally. U.S. economic data is still quite grim when one carefully reads the data. The euphoria on Wall Street is misplaced as the “improvement” can be entirely attributed to seasonal factors as we approach the holiday season. Unemployment data is skewed due to holiday shortened weeks, temporary hires for the holiday season, and employers unwilling to layoff workers during the holidays. The limited statistical population used for consumer confidence renders the slight rise in confidence meaningless. Even so, this and other consumer confidence data show that there is effectively little if any change. And of course goods orders will rise on up to and through the Christmas holidays. I guess it all depends on the spin applied to the data. The equities markets were high on the hope of an improving economy, yet these hopes may be well misplaced. A better gauge of improvement would be a comparison to the year ago data. Nevertheless gold held firm in spite of all the positive spin on today’s economic data and the rally on Wall Street. Gold remains supported on uncertainty over Iraq’s willingness to meet the December 8th deadline to come clean on their inventories on weapons of mass destruction. Also, gold was supported on renewed terrorist threats as investors still view gold as portfolio insurance.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Zitat des Tages

The government announced today that it is changing its emblem to a condom, because it more clearly reflects the government`s political stance.

A condom stands up to inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security while you`re actually being screwed!

Copyright © 2002 Pete/Kitco Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

Die privaten Chinesen, immerhin gibt es über 1`000`000`000 Milliarde davon, scheinen sich richtig darauf zu freuen, nach 50 Jahren Verbot endlich wieder Gold kaufen zu dürfen.

Die Gold Bugs freuen sich mit ihnen, und wünschen den Chinesen alles gute, und auf dass sie bald alle wieder eine Goldkette mit mindestens 10 Gramm, um den Hals tragen werden.

Das wären dann schon volle 4 Welt-Jahres-Produktionen, oder 10`000 Tonnen Gold zusätzlicher Bedarf.

Die Inder, Thailänder, und Vietnamesen, sind den Chinesen zwar goldmässig bereits etwas voraus, doch bekanntlicher Weise sind die Chinesen, gute geschäftstüchtige Leute, die vermutlich diesen Nachteil schon bald aufzuholen wissen.

Ob die chinesische Regierung sich mit ihrer Gold Liberalisierung da wohl über den Umweg ihrer Privat- Bevölkerung, auf den zu erwartenden Gold Boom vorbereitet?

Das Goldpreis Manipulations Kartell wird`s vermutlich weit weniger freuen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200211/28/eng20021128_1076…



Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, November 28, 2002

Personal Gold Investment in China Soon to Be Relaxed

A gold market for personal investment will soon come to show up. At the "Beijing Gold and Jewelry Exhibition 2002" convened today (November 27), small gold bars, commonly known as "little yellow croakers" and suitable for personal investment, will make a debut after 50 years of disappearance from the market.

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com

Top Financial News

11/27 22:17

Vietnam Property Boom Spurs Sales of Gold Bars Used as Payment

By Jason Folkmanis

Hanoi, Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam`s property boom is spurring demand for gold bars used to pay for homes, bucking a slump in bullion sales across Southeast Asia.

Vietnam`s gold demand rose 5.4 percent in the third quarter even as total Southeast Asian sales fell 5 percent, the World Gold Council said. In five years, the number of gold shops in Hanoi doubled to about 400, said Vu Duong, deputy director of Kim Quy, a trader of the metal based in the capital city.

Economic growth that averaged about 6 percent over the past five years left the Vietnamese with cash to invest, and property is among their favored assets. The price of an inner-city home can total several garbage bags of Vietnamese dong -- so gold bars have become a favored currency.

``The country`s economy is now open,`` Duong said. ``The life of the people has improved, and that`s one reason why gold demand increased.``

While sales of the metal rose in Vietnam in the third quarter, purchases slowed in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

``The primary reason that people buy gold here is to buy property,`` said Brett Ashton, director of the Ho Chi Minh City branch of property consultants Chesterton Petty Vietnam.

Tael Bars

Vietnam`s standard gold bar -- known as a tael and stamped for authenticity by companies such as Kim Quy and Saigon Jewelry Co. -- has become an alternate denomination in which the price of a house is frequently negotiated.

``The inner-city property market revived once more, boosting demand for gold bars which are used in property transactions,`` the Gold Council said.

Property-buying isn`t the only spur to gold sales. The Vietnamese have traditionally avoided putting surplus cash into bank accounts that invite the scrutiny of tax officials, and offer low interest and little growth after inflation.

Retail investment in gold rose 9.1 percent in the third quarter, the Gold Council said in its ``Gold Demand Trends`` report.

The revival in Vietnamese gold demand was driven in part by a shift to more expensive inner-city property buying after the government introduced regulations to stem rural land purchases and avoid a speculative bubble. Many investors bought rural and suburban land betting that it would be re-designated as residential and become more valuable.

Investment Opportunities

``Due to regulatory curbs on land transactions in suburban and rural areas, property buyers were forced to look for investment opportunities within the inner city,`` said Chesterton Petty`s Ashton. ``It also increased the price of anything that had already been designated residential land.``

Gold demand in Vietnam last year rose 4.7 percent to 57.6 tons, making the country the third-biggest gold consumer in Southeast Asia after Indonesia and Thailand.

In the first nine months of the year, gold demand in Southeast Asia fell 1.1 percent in comparison with the same period a year earlier.

[ThaiGuru]

Da möchte man am liebsten an die Decke springen!

Das WBoard war heute so zäh und unbedienbar wie selten.
Die Posting verschwanden im Nirvana des Internet, der Computer hängte sich auf, und Meldungen wie "Sie sind nicht berechtigt in diesem Forumzu schreiben" regten die Gedankengänge an.

Doch scheinen jetz wieder normale WZustände einzug zu halten, und ich will`s mal wieder versuchen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

1:46p ET Wednesday, November 27, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA consultant Robert K. Landis has published
at GoldenSextant.com an updated examination of
Barrick Gold`s hedge book in response to what seem
to be the company`s efforts to respond to his original
commentary on the company back in May, "Readings
from the Book of Barrick." The essence of it all still
seems to be that while Barrick is making some
interesting and possibly pro-gold changes in its hedge
book, it is nearly impossible to know what you`re really
buying when you buy Barrick shares.

You can find Bob`s new commentary here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings2.html#anchor13590

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[bluemoons]

Geld kann immer gedruckt werden

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Nach dem großen und glanzvollen Bullenmarkt der späten 1990er – es ging um Aktienkäufe und Schuldenmachen ... Lügen und Betrügen ... und um Leben, als ob es kein morgen geben würde – kam eben dieses "morgen". Es ging bergab, die Aktienkurse brachen ein, die Unternehmensgewinne verschwanden, es gab eine Rezession ... und Titanen unter den Industriebossen wurden in Handschellen abgeführt.

Alan Greenspan entschied, dass es Zeit sei, der Nation ein Erholungsprogramm mit 12 Schritten zu verordnen. Monat für Monat senkte er die Leitzinsen, bis nicht mehr viel übrig war, was man senken konnte. Die kurzfristigsten Zinsen notieren derzeit nur noch bei 1,25 % ... während die Inflationsrate bei rund 3 % steht. Effektiv pumpt die Zentralbank damit das Geld bereits zu real negativen Zinssätzen in die Wirtschaft.

Und wo ist die Erholung? Die Unternehmensgewinne sind im letzten Quartal weiter gefallen, sogar noch schneller als im Quartal zuvor. Die Insolvenzen stiegen im dritten Quartal, mit Wachstumsraten im zweistelligen Prozentbereich. Die Weihnachtssaison könnte für den Einzelhandel hart werden. Und den US-Bundesstaaten brechen die Einnahmen weg – die Gouverneure sprechen bereits von der "schlimmsten Haushaltskrise" seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. Sie sehen – nicht nur in Deutschland gibt es Haushaltsprobleme.

Noch immer werden neue Kredite relativ leicht vergeben. Aber es könnte für die Schuldner zu spät sein. Das Wasser ist hoch, und es beginnt, Strudel zu bilden. Die Konsumenten haben laut USAToday "so viele Schulden angehäuft, dass es sogar bei niedrigen Zinssätzen schwer ist, den Schuldendienst zu bedienen." Gleichzeitig hat Freddie Mac, eine große US-Hypothekenbank, das Limit für Hypotheken von 300.700 Dollar auf 322.700 Dollar angehoben. Freddie Mac gibt sich alle Mühe, die Wohltaten von Schulden möglichst vielen zukommen zu lassen.

Aber jetzt, wo Greenspan sein 12-Punkte-Programm beendet hat ... und die realen Zinssätze bei weniger als Null stehen ... was jetzt?

Ben Bernanke, einer der sieben Gouverneure der Fed, sagte: "Die US-Regierung hat eine Technologie, die man Notenpresse nennen könnte, und diese Technologie erlaubt es, so viele Dollar wie möglich zu drucken, zu fast keinen Kosten."

"Es gibt praktisch kein Limit für das, was wir vom Geldangebot ins System injizieren können", fügte Greenspan höchstpersönlich hinzu.

Technisch korrekt: Die Fed könnte immer eine Flotte von Helikoptern mieten und 100 $-Scheine über Manhattan abwerfen lassen. Aber eine solche Geldpolitik kann es nicht ohne Nachteile geben.

Geld muss grundsätzlich wertvoll sein, das bedeutet, dass das Angebot begrenzt ist. Das ist das grundsätzliche Problem, dass sich allen Zentralbanken oder Regierungen stellt. Die Manager der Geldmenge können einfach mehr drucken, wenn sie es für notwendig erachten – aber niemals soviel, dass die Illusion der Sicherheit zerstört wird.

Ich erinnere daran: Die US-Wirtschaft produziert weniger, als sie konsumiert. Die Differenz wird durch Fremde in ausländischen Ländern finanziert. Wenn diese Fremden einmal zu der Ansicht kommen sollten, dass der Dollar nicht das ist, für das er gehalten wird, dann werden sie Dollar gegen andere Währungen (z.B. den Euro) tauschen. "Was die USA ausländischen Staaten schulden, das bezahlen sie auch – zumindest teilweise", bemerkte Charles de Gaulle 1965, also 37 Jahre vor Greenspan und Bernanke, "mit Dollar, die sie einfach drucken können, wenn sie wollen."

De Gaulle war einer der Gründe, warum der Goldstandard des US-Dollars aufgegeben wurde. De Gaulle tauschte Dollar gegen Gold, was zum Zusammenbruch des Goldstandards führte. Nixon gab den Goldstandard auf, und der Goldpreis begann zu steigen. In den 12 Jahren bis 1980 zog der Goldpreis jedes Jahr um 30 % an – eine solche Performance hat es bei Aktien in einer 12-Jahres-Periode niemals gegeben.

Allerdings kauften Goldfans auch noch zu Höchstkursen, also Anfang 1980 zu 800 Dollar. Das bedauerten sie in den folgenden 22 Jahren. Jetzt steigt der Goldpreis wieder vorsichtig ... und die Goldanhänger haben weniger Geld und mehr Erfahrung. Auch wenn der Dollar nicht mehr durch Gold gedeckt ist – auf dem freien Markt kann man immer noch Dollar gegen Gold tauschen. Greenspan und Bernanke sind der Grund, warum man darüber nachdenken sollte, genau dies zu tun. Zentralbanker sind genauso wie Goldanhänger Menschen. Wenn sie eine Währung managen können, dann können sie auch Fehler machen. Mehr dazu weiter unten ...
investorverlag

[ThaiGuru]

Ein aufmerksamer User informierte mich heute über Boardmail über die Vorgänge beim Aktienhandel mit Drooy.

DROOY

Durban Roodeport Deep, Ltd. Nasdaq-SCM

Zwischen dem 15. Oktober, und dem 15. November 2002, haben sich die Shortpositionen bei der DROOY Aktie, während des starken Aufwärtstrendes beim Goldpreis, um über 1200% erhöht, also verzwölffacht.

Glaube nicht dass das alleine dem *Dotore Lupilein*, zuzuschreiben ist.

Und wir Gold Bugs wundern uns, warum die Drooy beim Goldpreisanstieg einfach nicht richtig steigt!

Nov. 15, 2002 8,691,615 3,577,763 2.43
Oct. 15, 2002 685,393 2,551,566 1.00
Sep. 13, 2002 810,310 2,841,278 1.00
Aug. 15, 2002 713,457 3,426,391 1.00
Jul. 15, 2002 629,800 4,465,805 1.00
Jun. 14, 2002 642,191 6,207,672 1.00
May. 15, 2002 333,904 3,690,588 1.00
Apr. 15, 2002 291,861 2,808,440 1.00
Mar. 15, 2002 166,046 2,096,600 1.00
Feb. 15, 2002 575,070 3,098,174 1.00
Jan. 15, 2002 102,630 966,196 1.00
Dec. 14, 2001 152,217 546,316 1.00

Data source: The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortin…
DROOY&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=
&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=
DROOY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortin…
DROOY&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=
&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=
DROOY

[bluemoons]

Auszug
von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner


*** Auch wenn der Goldpreis derzeit etwas enttäuscht ... der einzige englische Goldfonds ("Gold and General" von Merrill Lynch) ist in den ersten 10 Monaten des Jahres bereits um 53,9 % gestiegen. In den letzten 10 Jahren hat er 400 % zugelegt – auch, als der Goldpreis fiel.

Goldaktien "steigen gewöhnlich, wenn andere Anlagen sich schlecht entwickeln", so Graham Birch, der Fondsmanager.

*** James Grant von "Grant`s Interest Rate Observer" hat eine Empfehlung gegeben: Kaufen Sie die neuen Newmont-Aktien. Es handelt sich um eine neue Goldminengesellschaft. Die alte Newmont schloss sich mit zwei anderen Goldminen zusammen: Der kanadischen Franco-Nevada und der australischen Normandy. Nicht, dass die Gesellschaft viel Geld verdienen würde und die Aktie günstig bewertet wäre. Im Gegenteil, die Aktie ist sogar hoch bewertet. Aber die Gesellschaft hat hohe Reserven – geschätzte 97 Millionen Unzen Gold. Wenn es Zweifel über den Wert von Papiergeld geben sollte, dann sind solche Goldreserven eine gute Sache.

[ThaiGuru]

12:28a ET Thursday, November 28, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

One premise of GATA consultant Reg Howe`s lawsuit
against the Bank for International Settlements, the
Federal Reserve and Treasury Department, and the
bullion banks was that the BIS was cheating its
private shareholders by paying them less than fair
value when the bank forcibly withdrew their shares.
Now the arbitration panel established by the BIS
itself to hear similar claims by other shareholders
has concurred and has ordered higher compensation
for all the private shareholders.

Reg has written a short commentary about this
development, and you can read about it at
his Internet site, GoldenSextant.com, here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary22.html#anchor25718

Congratulations to Reg on this vindication.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.cdn-news.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/112…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews

FOR: JIPANGU INC.

NOVEMBER 28, 2002 - 16:29 EST

Jipangu Inc. Exercises 4.95 Million Warrants of Cambior Inc.

TOKYO, JAPAN--Jipangu Inc. today announced that it had acquired from treasury an additional 4,950,000 common shares of Cambior Inc. pursuant to the exercise of an equivalent number of Cambior common share purchase warrants for aggregate exercise proceeds of US $4,123,350. The common shares acquired constitute approximately 3.1% of Cambior`s currently issued and outstanding common shares. After giving effect to the transaction, Jipangu
directly owns a total of 44,611,194 common shares of Cambior, representing approximately 28% of Cambior`s issued and outstanding common shares.

The common share purchase warrants were acquired by Jipangu Inc. pursuant to a subscription agreement dated October 31, 2001 under which Jipangu Inc. subscribed for 4,950,000 units of Cambior, each unit consisting of one Cambior common share and one Cambior common share purchase warrant. The common share purchase warrants were exercisable at US $0.833 per share until November 30, 2002.

The common shares acquired on exercise of the common share purchase warrants were acquired and are currently being held for investment purposes. In the future, Jipangu Inc. may, subject to market conditions, make additional investments in or dispositions of securities of Cambior, including additional purchases or sales of Cambior common shares.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Jipangu Inc.
Tamisuke Matsufuji
President and Chief Executive Officer
Tokyo, Japan: 813-3474-3611
813-3474-4679 (FAX)
Website: www.jipangu.co.jp

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.cdn-news.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/112…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



FOR: KING`S BAY GOLD CORPORATION

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: KBG

NOVEMBER 28, 2002 - 16:29 EST

King`s Bay Gold to Begin Drilling at Swell Bay Property

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA--King`s Bay Gold Corp. (TSX.V : KBG) is pleased to announce that it is mobilizing to begin a drill program on its 100% owned high grade Swell Bay Property, located in the Kenora Mining Division, Ontario.

Drilling should commence in the next 10 days, and will initially test the number 1 trench where individual high grade assays of 20.90 ounces of gold per ton (opt) 718.0 grams per tonne (gtp) and 15.63 ounces of gold per ton (opt) 535.9 grams per tonne (gtp) were returned.

In addition to the above, a channel sample taken along this 1 Trench returned gold over a width of 40 feet of which a section returned values of 8.9 grams or 0.284(opt) over 20 feet. This 40 ft. zone is open at both ends and at depth. At least 8 shallow drill holes (100-200 feet deep) are planned for this zone.

Linecutting, and a ground VLF-EM geophysical survey has been completed. This survey has identified new drill targets.

About King`s Bay Gold

King`s Bay Gold Corp. is a Canadian mineral exploration company with a specific focus on prospective gold properties in Ontario. The Company has assembled a portfolio of 7 precious metal exploration prospects where it is the operator of all projects, owning most of the equipment to carry out all various phases of exploration. In addition, the Corporation now possesses five diamond drill rigs, is debt free with a present working capital
of $900,000.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
King`s Bay Gold
Richard Rivet
President & CEO
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)
Website: http://www.kingsbaygold.com
The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.cdn-news.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/112…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews

FOR: CROESUS GOLD INC.

3,306,400 Common Shares Issued and Outstanding

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: YCV

NOVEMBER 28, 2002 - 15:59 EST

Croesus Gold Inc.-Announcement

TORONTO, ONTARIO--Croesus Gold Inc. (TSXV - YCV) announces that the previously announced non-brokered private placement of 1,000,000 units at a price of $0.10 per unit has been modified to the extent that it will now consist of 650,000 flow-through units ("Flow-Through Units") and 350,000 non flow-through units ("Non Flow-Through Units", and collectively with Flow-Through Units, "Units") at a cost of $0.10 per Unit for total proceeds of $100,000. Each Flow-Through Unit will consist of one flow-through
common share and one flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each flow-through warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one flow-through common share at a price of $0.15 per share for a two year period from the date of closing. Each Non Flow-Through Unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each common share purchase warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common share at a price of $0.15 per share
for a two year period for the date of closing.

The subscriber to the private placement is J. J. Becker Law Corp., a corporation controlled by Jeffrey Becker, the President and a director of Croesus. Following completion of the private placement, Mr. Becker will hold, directly and indirectly, approximately 1,009,000 common shares representing approximately 23.4% of the issued and outstanding common shares of Croesus (prior to any exercise of warrants) and 1,000,000 warrants. The
private placement was approved by the shareholders at the annual and special meeting held on June 21, 2002 and will result in a change of control of Croesus.

Proceeds of the private placement, which is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange, will be used, in respect of the Flow-Through Units, to incur exploration expenses on the Company`s mineral properties located in Ontario and in respect of the Non Flow-Through Units, for general corporate purposes.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Croesus Gold Inc.
Jeffrey J. Becker
President
[phone]
[e-mail]

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200211280933113982E.…

Randgold Resources Ld

28 November 2002

For immediate release



For further information call:
(CEO) Mark Bristow [phone]
(CFO) Roger Williams [phone]


MORILA NOW ONE OF THE WORLD`S TOP GOLD PRODUCERS



London 28 November 2002 - Production forecasts for the last quarter of this year indicate that Morila is likely to rank among the world`s top 10 gold producers
for 2002.

Morila has just completed its second full year of operation and in that time has produced more than a million-and-a-half ounces of gold at costs below US$100/oz.
During the record-breaking September quarter it produced 428 421 ounces at a cash cost of US$28/oz and a total cash cost of US$49/oz - and this bonanza did not come at the expense of mine life. The remodelling of value trends based on infill drilling has led to the definition of additional reserves in an extremely high-grade area. Further analysis of geological and grade data indicates that there is a strong posibility of obtaining additional high-grade bonanzas within the southwest-to-northeast trending payshoot axis. Good progress has also been
made in optimising the current life-of-mine plan to ensure that presently uneconomical ore can be processed at the same time as economic ore. This will be achieved by lowering costs through economies of scale.

Issued on behalf of Randgold Resources Limited by du Plessis Associates.

dPA contact Kathy du Plessis on Tel: [phone], mobile: [phone] or

e-mail: [e-mail]






DISCLAIMER:

Statements made in this release with respect to Randgold Resources` current plans, estimates, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements about the future performance of Randgold Resources. These statements are based on management`s assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to it. Randgold
Resources cautions you that a number of important risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements, and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. The potential risks and uncertainties include, among others, risks associated with: fluctuations in the market price of gold, gold production at Morila, estimates of reserves and mine life and liabilities arising from the closure of Syama. Randgold Resources assumes no obligation to update information in this release.




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

November 28, 2002 (usagold.com)


Due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday today I will just provide a short update of the gold market action early today. First off, gold settled up in London by 60 cents from yesterday’s close in New York. Secondly, it appears that renewed terrorist acts have given the markets a reminder of how these events can happen anywhere at anytime. And thirdly, the U.S. gold market is closed until Monday due to the long Thanksgiving Day holiday although the equities markets will trade a shortened session tomorrow.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $317.60 an ounce, up cents from $317.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. Currently gold sits at $318.10 an ounce. Gold was slightly firmer in late trade on news of the terrorist attack in Kenya this morning, dealers said. Activity is severely limited by the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US. The reports of the attack helped gold climb to a high of $318.30 an ounce, though some of these gains shed to a strengthening dollar. "The geopolitical backdrop is in people`s minds, they are aware of what is going on and I guess it contributes (to strength) on a short to medium term view," a London bullion trader said. "Gold eased on a strengthening US-dollar, temporarily trading below support of $317 an ounce. However, it regained some strength on news of a terrorist attack in Kenya this morning," Barclays Capital said in a daily briefing.

Earlier Gold fell $1 in Hong Kong to 317.65. Spot gold hung tough after an onslaught of TOCOM-related selling at the open in Asia on Thursday, but still looked vulnerable to negative news during upcoming holiday-thinned sessions, traders said. "The U.S. accounts for about 50 percent of capital flows, so it is pretty hard to get things moving without them," said Simon Klimt, head of commodities at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney. "I think that US$316.75 is holding," Klimt added. "It looks a bit bearish...it will depend on whether it can hold at US$315-316," said Anson Tse, trader at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong. The next support lay at US$308, the market`s most recent low, set on October 24, Tse said. Looking beyond technical indicators, the U.S. dollar had been strengthening and "the chance of an early attack on Iraq is diminishing," said Tse. The political jitters that were underpinning the yellow metal in the top half of its trading range were fading, at least in the short term. Then later the new terrorist attacks occurred (see below).

Vietnam`s property boom is spurring demand for gold bars used to pay for homes, bucking a slump in bullion sales across Southeast Asia. Vietnam`s gold demand rose 5.4 percent in the third quarter even as total Southeast Asian sales fell 5 percent, the World Gold Council said. In five years, the number of gold shops in Hanoi doubled to about 400, said Vu Duong, deputy director of Kim Quy, a trader of the metal based in the capital city. Economic growth that averaged about 6 percent over the past five years left the Vietnamese with cash to invest, and property is among their favored assets. The price of an inner-city home can total several garbage bags of Vietnamese dong -- so gold bars have become a favored currency. ``The country`s economy is now open,`` Duong said. ``The life of the people has improved, and that`s one reason why gold demand increased.`` Property-buying isn`t the only spur to gold sales. The Vietnamese have traditionally avoided putting surplus cash into bank accounts that invite the scrutiny of tax officials, and offer low interest and little growth after inflation. Retail investment in gold rose 9.1 percent in the third quarter, the Gold Council said in its ``Gold Demand Trends`` report.

European central banks were likely to renew an accord limiting their gold sales and might add others such as the US, the largest holder of the metal, the head of the CPM Group, a precious metals researcher, said this week. The Washington agreement between 14 European banks and the European Central Bank limits sales by participants to about 400 tons a year, currently worth about $4 billion, through 2004. A new agreement probably would not be announced until then, because the issue was low on their agendas and circumstances might change, Jeffrey Christian said. "There`s really no need for another agreement to be announced until the second half of 2004," Christian said on the sidelines of a gold conference in London. "I think they`ll wait." The agreement "was successful in avoiding uncertainty, which was painful for the gold market", Guy Levy-Rueff, the head of foreign exchange reserves at Banque de France, told the gold conference in London. "Volatility has been relatively limited since then." Other nations that might join the accord include Canada, Japan and Australia. New sellers under a second agreement might include Germany, Christian said. Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke said in July the German central bank, the world`s second-largest holder of gold, wanted the option to sell some bullion after the Washington accord expires. The signatories might publicly agree to a similar level to the first agreement, even if they intended to sell much less, Christian said. That would reassure investors that gold supplies from central banks would be maintained. To be sure, not all central banks have been sellers. France and Italy have added to their reserves. China and other Asian nations have also been buying.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Suicide bombers blew up a hotel full of Israelis in Kenya Thursday, killing 14 people, minutes after missiles narrowly missed an Israeli airliner taking off nearby, in an apparently synchronized attack. Israeli and Kenyan officials swiftly blamed the al Qaeda network. In a fax sent to Reuters by a Lebanese media organization, the previously unheard-of "Army of Palestine" claimed responsibility for the attack. Police said they were questioning two people seized near the scene of the hotel bomb. Witnesses spoke of Israeli tourists and other survivors, streaked with blood and dust, staggering to the beach from the shattered Mombasa Paradise resort hotel and screaming for water after the attackers rammed a car bomb into the hotel lobby. There were discrepancies in the casualty figures. "There should be initial indications that 14 people have died," Kenya`s Interior Minister Julius Sunkuli told Reuters. Police earlier said three suicide attackers had killed themselves, six Kenyans and two Israelis. Israeli officials said three Israelis were killed, two of them children. Eighty people were wounded, Kenya`s ambassador to Israel said.

Minutes before the hotel blast, missiles were fired at an Israeli Arkia airliner carrying 261 passengers as it took off from Mombasa`s airport. "About two kilometers (1.5 miles) from the airport, two missiles were fired at the aircraft from a white Pajero (jeep) by some people who are suspected to be of Arab origin. Both missiles missed the aircraft," police spokesman Kimgori Mwangi said. Ezra Gozlan, a passenger sitting at the back of the plane, said he saw a missile fly over the wing moments after take-off. "All the wheels were in the air and then we heard the explosion. It (the missile) went about one meter above the wing," he said. The plane landed safely in Israel, escorted by Israeli air force jets. "We spotted two white smoke trails passing us on the left side, from the rear to the front, and disappearing after a few seconds," pilot Rafi Marik said. A Kenyan security source said it was believed the attackers used shoulder-borne missile launchers.

Later, several gunmen opened fire, killing at least four people not far from a polling station in Israel`s Likud party leadership primary to elect the leader of the right-wing party ahead of a January general election. Two Palestinian gunmen opened fire at a crowded polling station during Israel`s Likud party leadership primary Thursday, killing four people and wounding 36, police said. The attack in northern Israel occurred at a time when the country was reeling from almost simultaneous missile and car bomb attacks on Israeli targets in Kenya earlier in the day that killed 14 people. The gunmen went on a shooting spree in the town of Beit Shean, a bastion of support for the rightist Likud party close to borders with the West Bank and Jordan, before they themselves were shot dead, witnesses said. The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, a militant group linked to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat`s Fatah faction, said it carried out the raid to avenge the killings Tuesday of two militant commanders in the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank.


Comment: Today’s events just show how unstable the world can be. While the U.S. markets are closed for the holidays it seems to be a perfect time for terrorists to attack while attention is diverted to other pursuits. It is always best to be prepared no matter what and precious metals serve that purpose as a form of portfolio insurance when such events can buffet world markets and individual investment portfolios.

I’ll leave it at that for now – Happy Thanksgiving.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Dottore Lupo]

@ laotischer Büffelscheissdreck: du kannst nicht mal richtig zitieren....stelle doch mal die 10 Postings um dieses Posting von KCN rein...aber dafür bist du zu blöd!!!!

cu DL....und DROOY immer feste druff

[ThaiGuru]

@Dotore Lupilein

Für Dich den Waldtierfachmann, zum besseren Verständnis noch einmal!

Der einzige Betrug bist Du anscheinend selbst.

Kingsgate *KCN* kostet jetzt schon über 3.10 Dollar

Hast Du es immer noch nicht kappiert dass Du eine Pfeife bisst?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

***

#1 von Dottore Lupo 25.02.02 17:51:02 Beitrag Nr.: 5.667.410 5667410
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben

Heute wird KCN gnadenlos hochgezogen!!!!

Förtschi-Boy und der Makler zocken ab...Achtung Betrug!!!

CU DL

[ThaiGuru]

Heute wieder hoch mit dem Goldpreis im asiatischen physischen Gold Handel. Amerikas Papier Goldhandel ist heute geschlossen. Warten wir ab in welche Richtung in London, sich heute der Goldpreis bewegt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/IN/Intemplates/faznet/default.asp?tpl=faz…



Das Wirtschaftsklima in Deutschland verdüstert sich

Mehr Konsumtrubel wünscht sich der Handel. (Foto dpa)

GfK-Barometer auf Tiefstand / Konsumenten und Investoren wollen weniger ausgeben

FRANKFURT, 28. November.

Das Wirtschaftsklima in Deutschland verdüstert sich zusehends. Sowohl bei Konsumgütern wie auch bei Investitionsgütern zeigen alle Entwicklungen nach unten. Die Anschaffungsneigung der Verbraucher ist auf dem tiefsten Punkt seit ihrer ersten Messung im Jahr 1980, heißt es in der jüngsten Mitteilung der GfK Gesellschaft für Konsumgüterforschung, Nürnberg. Nachdem sich die Kaufabsichten der Verbraucher im Sommer nach dem Abflauen der Teuro-Diskussion wieder etwas belebt hatten, nehmen sie unter dem Eindruck der jüngsten Steuer- und Abgabendebatte seit der Bundestagswahl wieder stark ab. Die zu erwartenden Mehrbelastungen durch höhere Steuern und Sozialversicherungsbeiträge untergraben nach Ansicht der GfK die Kauflust der Verbraucher ebenso wie die Angst um den eigenen Arbeitsplatz.

Die Verbraucher erwarten aber nicht nur für sich selbst höhere finanzielle Belastungen und damit eine deutliche Reduzierung ihrer verfügbaren Nettoeinkommen. Sie erwarten auch zunehmend eine nennenswerte Verschlechterung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Umfeldes.

War im Sommer noch ein moderates Wirtschaftswachstum erwartet worden, so ist der entsprechende Wert nach einem Rückgang um 10 Punkte im Oktober im November noch einmal um 27 Zähler auf minus 26 Punkte gefallen und liegt damit weit unter dem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Die Diskussion um Steuern und Abgaben sowie die steigende Arbeitslosigkeit läßt die Konsumenten glauben, "daß die Konjunktur in den nächsten Monaten ein Tief durchlaufen wird", heißt es in der Auswertung der Befragung von 2000 Verbrauchern. Eine Besserung der Konsumstimmung sei auf absehbare Zeit nicht zu erwarten. Die Experten der GfK gehen sogar von einer weiteren Verschlechterung aus, wenn Anfang kommenden Jahres die Menschen auf den Lohn- und Gehaltsabrechnungen die tatsächlichen Einbußen aufgrund der gestiegenen Sozialversicherungsbeiträge erkennen.

Negative Konjunktursignale kommen derzeit auch aus der gewerblichen Wirtschaft. Der Bundesverband Deutscher Leasing-Unternehmen - die Branche ist mit einem Investitionsvolumen von knapp 50 Milliarden Euro im Jahr der größte Einzelinvestor in Deutschland - beobachtet"eine deutliche Verschlechterung der Investitionsbereitschaft".

Der vom Verband und dem Münchener Ifo-Institut ermittelte Geschäftsklimaindikator für die Leasing-Branche verzeichnet den schlechtesten Wert seit 1993.

Wenn die Bundesregierung ihre Ankündigungen wahr mache, eine Leasingsteuer einzuführen, die Abschreibungsfrist für Gewerbeimmobilien zu verlängern und die Dienstwagen höher zu besteuern, würden die Investitionen um 80 Prozent beim Immobilien-Leasing zurückgehen, um 20 Prozent beim Autoleasing und um 10 bis 20 Prozent beim allgemeinen Mobilien-Leasing, erwartet Horst-Günther Schulz, Präsident des Verbandes. "Damit würde die Bundesregierung die Motorsäge an einen der letzten gesunden Bäume der Volkswirtschaft legen."

Investitionsfachmann Arno Städtler vom Ifo-Institut warnt, daß in Deutschland die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Investitionen schon im zweiten Jahr hintereinander zurückgingen. Auch für 2003 sei kein Anstieg zu erwarten. "Dieser Rückgang der Investitionen wird in der öffentlichen Diskussion völlig unterschätzt." Deutschland liege beim Wachstum der Investitionen mit 0,5 Prozent im Jahr nicht nur seit zehn Jahren weit unter dem Durchschnitt der Mitgliedsländer der Organisation für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung, der 4,7 Prozent beträgt; vielmehr gefährde es damit auch seine internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, die derzeit einzige Stütze der Konjunktur.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 29.11.2002, Nr. 278 / Seite 11

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/s/RubAA823E24426E498A9804D018FACD552D/Tpl…



Massenentlassungen bei France Télécom

Allein in Frankreich sollen 22000 Stellen gestrichen werden. France Télécom hat rund 70 Milliarden Euro Verbindlichkeiten.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/IN/Intemplates/faznet/default.asp?tpl=faz…



Wirtschaftswissenschaftler berechnen Kriegsszenarien

Arbeitslosigkeit würde schneller sinken als ohne Krieg / Im schlimmsten Fall droht aber Rezession


ctg. WASHINGTON, 28. November. Ein kurzer, erfolgreicher Militärschlag gegen den Irak wäre für die Konjunktur in den Vereinigten Staaten wahrscheinlich besser, als wenn es nicht zu einem Krieg kommt. Zu dieser Einschätzung sind eine Reihe von Ökonomen auf einer Konferenz des Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), einer Denkfabrik in Washington, gelangt.

Gelänge es, die Herrschaft von Saddam Hussein innerhalb von vier bis sechs Wochen abzulösen, dann werde auch der Ölpreis nur für kurze Zeit in die Höhe schnellen. Anschließend würde der Ölpreis wahrscheinlich unter das derzeitige Niveau von rund 25 Dollar je Faß fallen, vermuteten die Ökonomen, darunter der ehemalige amerikanische Notenbanker Laurence Meyer, Bill Dudley von Goldman Sachs, Robert DiClemente von Salomon Smith Barney und Stefan Schneider von der Deutschen Bank. Für die Konjunkturentwicklung sei dies mittelfristig von großem Vorteil, und die Arbeitslosenquote in Amerika werde sogar schneller sinken als im "Friedensszenario".

Die recht zuversichtlichen Prognosen der Volkswirte fußen gleichwohl auf einer Reihe von Annahmen: Zum einen unterstellen sie, daß Saudi-Arabien den zwischenzeitlichen Ausfall der irakischen Produktion durch eine Erhöhung der eigenen Ölfördermenge ausgleichen würde; zum anderen dürfe es nicht zu größeren Schäden an den Produktionsanlagen im Irak oder anderswo in der Region kommen, und es dürfe auch keinen Einsatz von Massenvernichtungswaffen geben.

Im schlimmsten Fall, daran ließen die Ökonomen keinen Zweifel, könne ein Angriff auf den Irak die amerikanische Wirtschaft aber auch in die Rezession stürzen. Dies sei möglich, wenn der Krieg mehrere Monate dauere und die Ölproduktionsanlagen in der Region erheblich beschädigt oder gar zerstört würden. Zu den weiteren Annahmen eines "Worst Case Scenario" zählen die Ökonomen unter anderem den Einsatz von Massenvernichtungswaffen, ein Zerbrechen der internationalen Allianz gegen den Irak sowie eine Ausweitung des Konflikts auf die gesamte Region. In einem solchen Fall werde der Ölpreis womöglich auf mehr als 80 Dollar je Faß klettern und auch im Jahr 2004 deutlich über dem derzeitigen Niveau bleiben. Ein Kursrutsch an den Aktienmärkten und eine Rezession - vermutlich sogar der gesamten Weltwirtschaft - seien dann möglich, erwarten die Ökonomen. Die Arbeitslosenquote in Amerika dürfte in diesem Fall von derzeit 5,7 auf 7,5 Prozent steigen.

Neben den Konjunkturszenarien und den volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten eines Krieges im Nahen Osten werden in Washington auch Schätzungen angestellt für die zusätzlichen Kosten, die unmittelbar auf den amerikanischen Haushalt zukämen. Als einer der ersten hatte der Wirtschaftsberater von Präsident George Bush, Lawrence Lindsey, vor einigen Wochen die Kosten auf zwischen 100 und 200 Milliarden Dollar beziffert. Die Haushaltsfachleute im amerikanischen Kongreß rechnen mit Kosten zwischen 6 und 13 Milliarden Dollar im Monat.

Finanzminister Paul O`Neill hat unlängst darauf hingewiesen, daß der Kampf gegen den internationalen Terrorismus keinen finanziellen Beschränkungen unterliegen dürfe, ungeachtet des steigenden Haushaltsdefizits. Eine offizielle Schätzung zu den Kosten eines Angriffs gibt es aber bisher nicht. Das Verteidigungsministerium in Washington hat unterdessen die Schaffung eines 10-Milliarden-Dollar-Fonds gefordert, aus dem nicht nur mögliche Militäraktionen gegen Terroristen bezahlt werden sollen, sondern auch verbesserte Sicherheitsmaßnahmen von Militärstützpunkten im Ausland. Der Verteidigungshaushalt beträgt im laufenden Jahr rund 355 Milliarden Dollar.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 29.11.2002, Nr. 278 / Seite 13

[konradi]

Der letzte Artikel aus der FAZ hat´s in sich:
Ein schneller (!!!) Sieg würde die US-Börsen explodieren lassen
und dann steht für uns goldbugs vermutlich ein langer, kalter Winter bevor !

Gruß Konradi

[ThaiGuru]

@konradi

Habe diesen Artikel #3198 reingestellt, um den Lesern aufzuzeigen, wie mit uns allen umgegangen wird. Ich finde es beschämend, und unmenschlich, wie von der CSIS, einer "Denkfabrik" wie sie die FAZ nannte, über wirtschaftliche Vorteile bei einem "schnellen Sieg" mit all den Menschenleben, und der Zerstörungen, die auf beiden Seiten auf dem Spiele steht, nachgedacht werden kann, und dann veröffentlicht wird.

Immerhin "denkt" diese CSIS auch darüber nach, dass dieser eventuelle (fast sicher stattfindende) Krieg, die ganze Weltwirtschaft in den Abgrund reissen könnte, mit katastrophalen Konsequenzen für uns alle.

Viele Leser vermuten eh schon lange, dass es bei diesem evtl. Krieg gegen Irak/Sadam nicht wirklich um die breit veröffentlichen Ziele geht, sondern eher um knallharte Wirtschaftsinteressen. Oel!

Wenn es dort im nahen Osten wirklich losgeht mit einem Krieg, ist der Irak auch nur ein Ziel von vielen. Nicht umsonst hatte Bush seine Regierung gebeten ihm einen Persilschein für seinen "Krieg gegen den Terror" im ganzen nahen Osten auszustellen, Der wurde ihm zwar so wie er ihn gerne gehabt hätte nicht ausgestellt. Das könnte sich bei Bedarf aber schnell ändern.

Falls Du aber wirklich glauben solltest, dass durch einen evetuellen schnellen Sieg der Amis über den Irak, dies auch nur im geringsten etwas an den Fundamentaldaten (Preismanipulation, Vorwärtsverkäufe, irrsinns Derivativ Positionen, Produktionsdefizit, etc.) beim Goldgeschehen ändern würde, und dass den Gold Bugs ein langer Winter bevorstehen würde, hast Du absolut nichts von dem verstanden was beim Goldgeschehen wirklich vorgeht.

Mit, oder ohne einem Krieg, schnell, oder lange dauernd, wird Gold zukünftig im Preis ansteigen. Ein stattfindender Krieg würde es nur etwas beschleunigen!

Du hast vor kurzem hier im Board mal geschrieben:

"Wenn man einem Gold Bug seiner Lebenslüge beraubt, entzieht man Ihnen die Luft zum Atmen."

Wer so etwas schreibt, sollte sich selbst nicht als Gold Bug bezeichnen, da es nicht glaubhaft ist.

Bitte verzeihe, aber Dir "konradi", nehme ich den Gold Bug nicht ab, dazu kenne ich Dich, Deine früheren Threads, und speziell deren Inhalte zu gut.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Vergleicht doch mal diesen sogenannten 24 Std. Kitco Gold-Chart, mit dem von Comdirect!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Kleiner Auszug:

Helicopter Money Or The Road To Weimar?

November 26, 2002

Recent statements by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, and a prominent Federal Reserve governor, Ben S. Bernanke, suggest that we are at last in the final stages of this process. Speeches by both gentlemen kindly spell out exactly the sort of explicit and transparent rationale required to engender the final moral hazard melt-up in the capital markets. Be careful what you wish for: Deflation may be averted, but if we are to take the proposals sketched out by these Fed officials at face value, the increasingly extreme outcome that lies in store for the US economy may be one of two equally unpalatable scenarios: a degree of socialisation unheard of since the days of the old Soviet Union or a Weimar Germany-type hyperinflation.

During unprepared remarks after a recent speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, Alan Greenspan once again reiterated before a microphone, this time with much less diffidence than he has hitherto expressed, his conviction in the ability of the Fed to engage unconventional methods in the war against deflation. Interestingly enough, he was responding to a question posed by Don Marron, who was once considered a potential candidate as Treasury Secretary under Bush II. These remarks went unnoticed by most of the press, but here is the full transcript reported by Bloomberg:

Ganzer Artikel gibts hier:

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

[ThaiGuru]

Die wirtschaftliche Lage in Japan, sieht auf gut Deutsch gesagt "beschissen" aus!

Morgan Stanley sieht weitere 700`000 (Siebenhunderttausend) Stellen wegfallen!




http://asia.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=O3SBEB…

Japan jobless rate hits record high as output sputters

29 November, 2002 18:59 GMT+08:00

By Stuart Grudgings

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan`s jobless rate returned to its highest level of the postwar era in October, industrial output sputtered and households cut spending, providing more evidence that a nine-month economic recovery is losing steam.



The government said on Friday that the unemployment rate hit 5.5 percent last month, up from 5.4 percent in September, while output from the country`s factories and refineries fell for the second straight month as exports slowed.

Industrial output fell 0.3 percent from the previous month, following a revised 0.1 percent fall in September and confounding a Reuters poll forecast of a 0.4 percent rise.

The Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) downgraded its assessment for industrial output for the first time since January 2001, saying it was on a flattening trend.

Other data for October showed that deflation retained its grip on the economy while household spending weakened, adding to worries that a key prop for the recovery was wobbling under the strain of rising unemployment and falling incomes.

"This clearly illustrates that the domestic economy is falling into a deep deflationary phase," said Shinichi Sato, fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi Securities.

"(The industrial output) results were far worse than our expectation of plus 0.5 percent and also much lower than the original (government) forecast of plus 1.2 percent," he said.

Industrial output, which is heavily dependent on exports --particularly to the United States -- has been weakening after rising at a brisk quarterly clip of 3.8 percent in April-June.

Exports jumped 8.5 percent in October from the previous month, halting a four-month slide, but economists said that one-off factors flattered that figure and they remain sceptical about the outlook despite tentative signs of a U.S. rebound.

The surprise fall in output weighed on the stock market, but the Nikkei average eked out a 0.42 percent gain by the close as most investors are by now resigned to a fading recovery.


UNTHINKABLE NOW REALITY

After staying at 5.4 percent for five straight months, the jobless rate went back up to the post-war high of 5.5 percent seen last December as companies restructured to deal with a weak domestic economy and slackening exports.

A decade ago, such a high figure would have been unthinkable in Japan`s jobs-for-life labour market, but experts say that even this number -- which compares with a jobless rate of 5.7 percent in the United States -- underestimates the problem.

The number of unemployed rose by 100,000 from October last year to 3.62 million, up for the 19th straight month, while the number of those in work fell 500,000 to 63.55 million.

The prospects for many companies remain bleak. In late October, for example, computer and electronics conglomerate Fujitsu Ltd said it would shed 7,100 jobs in the year to next March to cope with a protracted slump in telecoms equipment.

One Fujitsu white collar worker smoking a cigarette outside a central Tokyo building on Friday said that his job was in no immediate danger but his anxiety about the future was growing.

"I`m worried that with the economy this bad, I`ll eventually get laid off," said 55-year-old Katsuhara Kawasaki.

"I don`t think much of this government -- there are no real reformers in it and we need a thorough change," he said.

Resilient personal spending was one of the few bright spots in gross domestic product figures two weeks ago that showed the economy extended its recovery from recession into a third quarter in July-September.

But analysts are concerned that prop will be kicked away in the coming months by rising unemployment, falling wages and anxiety over bank reforms that could add to the short-term pain.

Outlining 2003/04 budget plans on Friday, including a cut in spending compared to this year, the government said it expected the economy to recover gradually in the year from April.

"However, there are various uncertainties for our economy, such as developments in overseas economies and the impact from the accelerated disposal of non-performing loans, and we must show due caution on such downside risk factors," it said.


BANK PLANS PROMISE PAIN

The timetable for banking sector plans, formally unveiled on Friday, were in line with a draft leaked earlier in the week.

New guidelines covering the state injection of funds into an ailing bank will be drawn up within about six months and banks will have to assess more strictly their non-performing loans.

They will be pressed to beef up their capital where needed, although one of the most contentious issues -- the use of future tax rebates as core capital -- was left open for discussion. Such rebates account for about 40 percent of the banks` capital.

If the government`s plans to wipe out some 50 trillion yen ($409 billion) of bad loans are strictly enforced, corporate failures are likely to rise, throwing more people out of work.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley said this week that 700,000 workers could lose their jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to about 6.5 percent, if the government took a hard-nosed approach.

Other data on Friday showed average spending by households of Japanese wage earners, a key gauge of personal consumption, fell a real 0.7 percent in October from a year earlier and was down 2.7 percent from September.

The government also said that consumer prices fell for the 37th straight month in October, suggesting the economy was no closer to emerging from its deflationary spiral. The national core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/IMRA/1038552353.…



Friday, November 29, 2002 - Gold Snippet

By: Kevin Klombies, Inter-Market Relationships Analysis



Our view on the gold sector remains positive in both the intermediate and longer term. The short-term is another story as the gold miners continue to languish. Below we feature the gold/XAU ratio and gold futures over a fairly lengthy time frame. When the gold/XAU ratio is around 5:1 or lower then both gold and the gold stocks are relatively ‘cheap’. Consider, for example, if gold manages to reach the channel top at 350 and the ratio snugs in to 3:1 then the XAU would have roughly doubled from current levels. Not bad in a world of singledigit interest rates.

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

Some Saudis May Sell US Investments-Paper

Friday November 29, 12:02 AM EST

LONDON (Reuters) - The Times on Friday quoted Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal as saying some Saudi investors would panic and sell U.S. investments because Saudi Arabia was portrayed by some Western media as not co-operating with the United States in its "war on terror."

Alwaleed`s comments to the Times came after he denied a report in August of Saudi "panic selling" of U.S. investments. At the time, he did not see an outflow of Saudi funds from the United States in reaction to perceived anti-Saudi sentiment.

"When you have Saudi Arabia being portrayed as not co-operating fully with the U.S. some Saudi investors will panic and leave. Inevitably, some funds will be withdrawn and some assets will be liquidated and these investors will move to other regions of the world," Alwaleed was quoted on Friday as saying in an interview.

Alwaleed did not offer an estimate of the scale of any withdrawal of funds, but said a forecast in August of $200 billion was "far too high," the Times reported.

Alwaleed said reports that donations by a member of the Saudi Royal family, Princess Haifa Al-Faisal, might have found their way to the al Qaeda network, the key U.S. suspect in the September 11 attacks last year, had not helped relations between Riyadh and Washington, the Times reported.

He said these reports, combined with uncertainty over whether Riyadh would permit the United States to mount air strikes on Iraq from its Saudi airbases, were forcing both sides to re-examine their relationship, the Times said.

"I believe in American systems and I believe in what America does, but they do make mistakes. The only quarrel between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. relates to what is happening to the Palestinians," Alwaleed said.

"The relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is very strong; these word have come from both President Bush and Crown Price Abdullah. But clearly we are going through a tough period," Alwaleed added.

Alwaleed, one of the world`s richest men and a nephew of Saudi Arabia`s King Fahd, has vowed never to sell a single stock of his U.S. holdings for political reasons. He has a stake in Citigroup Inc worth several billion dollars.

Alwaleed said he would not sell his U.S. stock even if he believed the media companies in which he invests, including AOL Time Warner and News Corp, portrayed Arabs or Muslims in an unflattering light.

"I won`t simply go and sell the company if they attack my religion of my country. I believe that engagement is the only right thing to do, not selling out," Alwaleed told the Times.


©2002 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021129/va090_1.html

Press Release Source: Bema Gold Corporation


Bema Gold Corporation - Third Quarter Results

Friday November 29, 2:41 pm ET


VANCOUVER, Nov. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema or the "Company") is pleased to report results from its operations for the third quarter ended September 30, 2002. Bema experienced a strong third quarter as the Julietta Mine in Russia reported its best production to date, mine operating earnings and cash flow from operations improved significantly and the company maintained a strong cash balance.

Financials

The Company reports mine operating earnings of $2.6 million during the third quarter of 2002 compared to a loss of $2.9 million for the same period in 2001.

The improved results were achieved partially as a result of the higher average gold price of $313 per ounce for the quarter and the fact that 100% of the gold production in the quarter was from the low cost Julietta Mine located in far eastern Russia. Cash flow from operations was $8 million for the third quarter of 2002 compared to cash used in operations in the amount of $1.7 million during the same period last year. The increase was mainly due to the improved Julietta Mine production results and from the receipt of a $4.2 million arbitration settlement related to construction problems at the Refugio Mine in Chile.

Bema reported a net loss of $1.9 million after taxes ($0.008 per share) on revenue of $11.2 million for the period compared to a net loss of $4.4 million ($0.027 per share) on revenue of $2.7 million for the third quarter of 2001. The loss for the period is mainly due to unrealized foreign exchange losses. During the third quarter, the Company recorded a foreign exchange loss of $1.2 million, of which approximately $945,000 was an unrealized exchange loss on approximately CDN$27 million relating mainly to funds received from the equity financing completed in May 2002.

For the nine months of 2002, the Company reported net earnings after taxes of $642,000 ($0.002 per share) on revenue of $27.8 million compared to a net loss of $9.5 million ($0.060 per share) on revenue of $17.6 million in 2001.

Consolidated Gold Production

For the nine months ended September 2002, Bema reported consolidated gold production of 92,240 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $119 per ounce and total cash costs of $154 per ounce. During the same period last year, the company reported consolidated gold production of 56,880 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $237 per ounce and total cash costs of $242 per ounce. The increase is mainly due to the successful period of production at the Julietta Mine.

Capital Resources

At September 30, 2002, the Company had $27.4 million in cash and cash equivalents compared to $20.4 million at the end of the previous quarter and $4.1 million as at December 31, 2001. The increase in cash was mainly from the Chilean arbitration settlement proceeds, net of the final Refugio loan payment, which was received during the quarter.

Julietta Mine

The Julietta Mine generated $6 million in positive cash flow by achieving its best quarterly production since start-up totaling 32,665 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $95 per ounce and total cash costs $126 per ounce. Development and exploration drilling are ongoing at Julietta with the intention of converting resources into reserves and exploring the ultimate potential of the property.

Refugio Mine

There was no gold production recorded at the Company`s 50% owned Refugio Mine in Chile during the quarter due to the scheduled winter shut-down of the ADR processing plant on June 3, 2002. The ADR plant recommenced production on October 1, 2002 as scheduled.

The Refugio Mine was placed on care and maintenance in June 2001 due to low gold prices. Bema and its joint venture partner have agreed to spend $5 million on drilling and metallurgical test work at Refugio with the objective of increasing mineable reserves which would extend the mine life and thereby improve the overall economics of the mine. The exploration program has commenced and is scheduled to be completed by April 2003. Upon receipt of results from the exploration program the joint venture partners will reexamine the Refugio project economics.

Monument Bay Project

Bema has identified a high grade resource of 300,000 ounces of gold with an average grade of 18.5 grams per tonne at the Monument Bay project located in North Eastern Manitoba. The bulk of the resource is located within the Twin Lakes Zone however the recently completed drill program targeted two areas outside this main zone. The program consisted of 11 holes, totaling 2729 metres and was successful in extending the structure of the Seeber West Zone and discovering a new zone called Twin Lakes West.

Results from the new Twin Lakes West Zone are encouraging as this zone occurs 500 meters west of the main Twin Lakes Zone and appears to represent another mineralized shoot that has similar geometry to the main Twin Lakes Zone identified in the winter 2002 program. The Twin Lakes West Zone has been drill tested with three holes and remains open in all directions.

Bema Gold is planning a 10,000 meter drill program to begin in early 2003. Drilling will focus on the Twin Lakes Zone, the Twin Lakes West Zone and possibly two or three regional targets within the belt.

Subsequent Events

Subsequent to the quarter-end, the Company entered into a business combination agreement whereby the shareholders of EAGC Ventures Corp. ("EAGC") will receive one share of Bema in exchange for each share of EAGC. EAGC owns 100% of Petrex Mines in East Rand, South Africa. Petrex Mines is projected to produce 185,000 ounces of gold per year at cash operating cost of $185 per ounce. The Company will attempt to complete this business combination, which is subject to regulatory and EAGC shareholder approval, by the year end.

In October 2002, Bema also announced that it had entered into a letter of intent with the government of the Chukotka in North East Russia to acquire up to a 75% interest in the high grade Kupol gold and silver project. The Kupol project hosts a large epithermal gold and silver vein system that is up to 30 metres wide with significant values over a true width of up to 15 metres. The vein system has been defined by a Russian operator using geological mapping, diamond drilling, trenching, geochemistry and geophysics over 4 kilometers of strike length and remains open along strike and at depth.

Approximately 35 trenches have been completed over 3 kilometers of strike length with several high grade intercepts occurring along an 1800 metre section. In addition, results have been received from 20 diamond drill holes (approximately 2500 metres) that have been drilled along 400 meters of strike length within the zone to a maximum depth of 140 metres. Several holes returned high grade gold and silver intercepts.

Bema`s management believes that the Kupol property has the potential to host a multi-million ounce high grade gold and silver deposit that could be exploited by both open pit and underground mining. Bema intends to deliver camps, drill rigs and supplies to the Kupol site over the winter months and is planning an extensive trenching, drilling and metallurgical sampling program commencing in the Spring 2003.

On behalf of BEMA GOLD CORPORATION


"Clive T. Johnson"
Chairman, C.E.O., & President


For more information on Bema Gold please contact Investor Relations at [phone] or toll-free 1-800-316-8855 or alternatively contact our web- site at www.bema.com.

The Toronto Stock Exchanges neither approves nor disapproves the information contained in this News Release, Bema Gold Corporation trades on The Toronto and American stock exchanges. Symbol: BGO.

Some of the statements contained in this release are forward-looking statements, such as estimates and statements that describe the Company`s future plans, objectives or goals, including words to the effect that the Company or management expects a stated condition or result to occur. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results in each case could differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements.

[ThaiGuru]

November 29 - Gold $318.70 up $1.70 - Silver $4.42 up 1 cent

Gold Pops Overseas With Comex Closed, Cabal on Holiday

As reported in the last MIDAS, due to Gold Cartel activity on the Comex, the PM gold Fix in London was lower than the AM Fix for at least seven days in a row. With Comex closed the past two days, the PM Fix has been higher than the AM one. Today’s numbers:

AM: $318.25
PM: $319.05

All just pure coincidence! Right!

Gold closed right in the middle of the recent trading range of $316.50 to $320.50. Recent gold trading has been choppy and coilish, with The Gold Cartel stopping all rallies and a very firm physical market supporting all dips. The gold fundamentals are extraordinarily bullish, led by negative interest rates and growing gold demand in the East.

With terrorist concerns growing and War talk to be on the increase each passing day in December, it is hard for me to see how the cabal can hold down the gold price much longer. The massive short position in gold is extremely perilous. Our camp has no real clue what their exit strategy is, but look for something dramatic. More than likely, the US Government will make some sort of ludicrous pronouncement, which, in reality, will be some sort of cover-up. They will either bail out the bullion banks (allowing cash settlement for physical), or change the gold trading/gold investment laws in the United States. No reason to be alarmed on that for now. I can’t imagine them doing anything until the price of gold rockets. They don’t want to be TOO obvious.

Whatever they concoct, the end result will very friendly for the price of gold, VERY FRIENDLY. Whatever they come up with will alert the investment world that GATA is correct about the massive short gold positions. Any Western edict will only stimulate demand in the East – which is where most of it is coming from anyway.

The price of gold is going to explode regardless of any devious plan The Gold Cartel throws out for Western public consumption.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report:

Friday November 29, 2002

Gold turned back resolute efforts to break it down, both on Thanksgiving eve and particularly interestingly, Thanksgiving Day. On Wednesday, against an admittedly adverse backdrop of a euphoric Wall Street, Comex gold came under relentless pressure: "…funds were sellers throughout the day" (UBSWarburg). Reuters reported:

"February gold …ended 90 cents lower at $317.80 an ounce, moving between $319.50 and $317.70, with most of the slippage coming in the last half hour… dealers said there was good fund selling late in the day"

Volume was estimated at a very heavy 70,000 contracts, most of which was outright trade: Tuesday’s volume turned out to be an enormous 104,570 lots, of which 53,000 were switches, slashing Comex Dec to less than 17,000 contracts. So on the two days before the long weekend, well advertised to be quiet, outright daily volume exceeded 50,000 lots. Open interest on Tuesday rose 856 lots – no liquidation evident.

On Thanksgiving Day, gold came under serious pressure during Japanese time, fooling several observers into announcing TOCOM selling. The frequently more astute Platt’s Metals service, however, was probably nearer the truth:

"Gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange saw "good selling interest from overseas" Thursday, Japanese traders said. "The opening price (of gold) was $317.5/oz, but lowered on good selling, mainly from overseas funds…"

What species these "funds" might be is an interesting question, bearing in mind that the CFTC window into Fund activity indicates both small and large specs staying resolutely long. Experienced gold observers will not have been surprised to see, on Bloomberg this morning, another resuscitation of the "Bundesbank-to- sell-gold" ploy, with a Bundesbank board member talking again about what the Bundesbank might do when the Washington Accord runs out – some two years from now.

In the event, the raid on TOCOM failed to trigger stops. Bidding by the usual physical buyers stabilized the market, and eventually news of the Kenyan hotel atrocity frightened opportunistic shorts. On Thursday, TOCOM traded the equivalent of 13,660 Comex lots, with open interest slipping 122 Comex equivalents: today the active contract reached a 1 week high, as volume rose 19.2% to the equivalent of 16,285 Comex contracts. Open interest slipped again, by 376 Comex equivalents.

Indian ex duty premiums: Thursday: IS $2.64, PM $1.49, with world gold at $316.55 and $317.60. Well above and somewhat below legal import point. Friday: IS $1.60, PM $1.80, with world gold at $318.60 and $318.25. Slightly below legal import point. India has clearly absorbed a good deal of bullion in the past several days, and prefers prices under $318.

"Spot gold was lifted early on Friday by some buying back by Tokyo-based traders and physical buying." There has been reasonable physical demand in gold for a couple of weeks now, and while the markets were quiet this morning, "there was evidence of physical demand," said a trader in Singapore"

In Reuters’ words. Reuters also carries the familiar story from New Delhi orchestrated by dealers trying to talk down the gold price: the simple fact is that India is willing to bid domestic gold up to the point where it is profitable to import legally around $316; they were not willing to do this earlier this year.

This raises the curious matter of the Virtual Metals Research paper presented at the Euromoney gold conference earlier this week. Alleging that "Annual demand for gold will drop by 200 to 300 tonnes in India" this talk, (see

http://m1.mny.co.za/mge.nsf/Current/85256C6E003D20F542256C7E… which was essentially a trailer for a Virtual Metals research study to be published in December at the market- appropriate price of $9,000 appears, if the report is accurate (and the http://www.theminingweb.com/ people are highly professional journalists) to be a simple projection of trailing 12 month trends, ignoring the distinction between short and long run price elasticities and inventory-chain considerations. Three points are worth making:

1) Indians are constantly buying and selling gold to one another. Never in recent years, even after the Washington Accord surprise, have domestic prices ever remotely approached a level at which exports would be economic.

2) In principle, gold’s friends want to see declining Indian off take because that means higher prices and new buyers – as when Japan did some serious buying in the first quarter of this year. In practice, India, one of the healthiest and best financed large economies in the world, looks likely to continue to be a growing buyer, subject to seasons, price fluctuations, and FX rates.

3) "Nobody really knew the amount of gold hoarded in India", but some suggested it could be as much as 12,000 tonnes, equivalent to all the gold in central bank vaults worldwide Virtual Metals is quoted as saying. This is the outfit, lead by Jessica Cross, which distinguished itself by snuggling up to establishment opinion when commissioned to study gold lending volumes by the World Gold Council.

Central Banks report some 33,000 tonnes of gold holdings, but dishonestly conflate "gold in vault" with "due from (lent to) Bullion Bankers".

Virtual Metals conformed to orthodoxy by suggesting this latter quantity was less than 5,000 tonnes. The only way the above statement makes sense is if it refers to "gold in hand" which implies that the Veneroso/GATA/ Turk thesis is the more accurate.

No doubt it will be explained as a mis statement – a strange venue for mis statements.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

JB

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cbc.ca/reuter/20021130/b113010.html

Bema Gold Output Rises on New Russia Mine

22:55:36 GMT 29-Nov-2002

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada`s Bema Gold Corp <BGO.TO> said on Friday its nine-month gold production was higher at 92,240 ounces at cash costs of $154 an ounce, thanks to contributions from its new Julietta mine in Russia.

For the nine-month period last year, Bema produced 56,880
ounces of gold at total cash costs of $242 an ounce.

Bema said the Julietta mine in far eastern Russia reached its best quarterly gold production in the third quarter since its start-up in 2001, totaling 32,665 ounces at total cash costs of $126 an ounce.

The Toronto-listed company, which plans to merge with EAGC
Ventures Corp., owner of the Gold Reefs mines in South Africa, said it intends to convert Julietta`s resources into reserves with additional development and exploration drilling.

Annual production for the first four years of Julietta is expected to be over 100,000 ounces. The company also has plans to buy a stake in the Kupol gold mine in northeastern Russia.

The combination with EAGC will more than double gold
production to 315,000 ounces a year and raise reserves to about 2.8 million ounces, the company has said.

Bema said its Refugio mine in northern Chile remains on care and maintenance until the gold price moves higher. Bema and its joint venture partner, Kinross Gold <K.TO>, have agreed to spend $5 million on drilling and metallurgical test work at Refugio to increase mineable reserves that would help extend the life of the
mine.

The partners have agreed to start up operations at Refugio when gold reaches and maintains $325 levels. Spot gold was at $318 an ounce on Friday

Bema said the exploration program had started at Refugio and is scheduled to be completed in April 2003, when a decision will be made on the economics of the project.

Bema reported a third-quarter net loss of $1.9 million, or 0.8 cents a share after taxes on Friday, down from a net loss of $4.4 million, or 2.7 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

It said the 2002 third-quarter loss was mainly due to
unrealized foreign exchange losses of about $1.2 million.

Revenue for the quarter was $11.2 million, up from $2.7
million.


(C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml%3B$sessionid$…

Saturday 30 November 2002

By Yvette Essen
(Filed: 30/11/2002)

Xstrata leads the mines` climb back from the depths

Mining stocks struck gold yesterday as every share in the sector climbed following bullish broker notes and confidence in the economy.

Xstrata was the leading blue-chip riser, climbing 36.5 to 628.5p, while Rio Tinto improved 18 to £13.02, Anglo American advanced 30.5 to 905p and BHP Billiton rose 14.75 to 341p.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs upgraded Rio Tinto from "in-line" to "out perform" because of its high exposure to China and the country`s growing demand for iron ore and aluminium. On Thursday, Schroder Salomon Smith Barney also increased its price targets for BHP and Rio Tinto, saying: "There is a general feeling that the markets have `hit the bottom` and are starting to recover." Traders said this week`s economic data also signalled better futures for mining stocks, as the demand for base metals usually grows in periods of stability.

In the wider market, the benchmark FTSE 100 slipped 16 to 4,169.4 due to profit-taking. Wall Street enjoyed a half day for Thanksgiving and when London closed, the Dow Jones was down 1 point.

Compass, which provides catering for motorway service stations, rallied 8.5 to 315.5p ahead of its full-year figures next week.

Tomkins, the engineering and auto products maker, continued to recover from last week`s fall, rising 4.75 to 219p. The stock slipped last week 3pc after it posted a decline in sales figures for the first half of this year.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.financialsense.com/resources/fed/fedwatch.htm

"I firmly believe that the storms that are approaching the United States economy have developed largely in part by the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank `pumping money` into the monetary system. The credit bubble, which is the largest storm cloud on our horizon, has grown to epic proportions during the last decade." ~ Jim Puplava, July 2000




"Any investment strategy should include knowledge of the Federal Reserve, their influence, and their actions."

JP

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=161&sid…

Samstag 30.11.2002, MEZ 10:11

Schweizer Wirtschaft steht still

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft stagniert. Der Konsum erweist sich derzeit als einzige Stütze. Doch die Arbeitslosigkeit steigt.

Noch stützt der Konsum die Wirtschaft. (Keystone)

Das Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft seco rechnet erst ab 2004 mit einem spürbaren Wirtschafts-Wachstum.

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft steht still. Für das nächste Jahr erwartet das seco lediglich ein bescheidenes Wachstum von maximal 1%.

Viele Ökonomen vertrösten sogar auf die zweite Jahreshälfte 2003. Die Schweiz wird voraussichtlich erst 2004 zu ihrem längerfristigen Wirtschafts-Wachstum von 2% zurückkehren.

Viele Sorgen

In den letzten Tagen haben sich die negativen Statistiken gehäuft. Das Bauhauptgewerbe klagt über eine schlechte Auslastung, und die kleinen und mittelgrossen Unternehmen (KMU) gehen von einem weiteren Umsatzrückgang im Winterhalbjahr aus.

Die Architektur- und Ingenieurbüros erwarten bis Ende Jahr weniger Aufträge und einen weiteren Stellenabbau.

Die Wohnbautätigkeit nahm im dritten Quartal ab und die Hotellerie meldet einen Rückgang der Logiernächte. Auch der Bankensektor ist weit von einer Erholung entfernt.

Kleines Strohfeuer

Ein kleines Strohfeuer verursachten die BIP-Zahlen für das dritte Quartal. Das Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) wuchs um 1,3%. Doch der Dämpfer ist da: Denn das Wirtschaftswachstum für das ganze Jahr tendiert gegen Null.

Getragen wurde das BIP-Wachstum im dritten Quartal hauptsächlich durch die steigenden Exporte (+6%). Die Importe stagnierten.

Das Wachstum des Konsums ist seit Mitte 2001 zwar auf tiefem Niveau, jedoch ziemlich stabil. Hier dürfte sich jedoch die Entwicklung aufgrund der Verunsicherung der Konsumenten wegen der zu erwartenden steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit verschlechtern.

Positiv bleibt immerhin die Entwicklung der Teuerung: Die Preise haben im November in der Schweiz leicht abgenommen.

Die Jahresteuerung ging auf 0,9% zurück. Im Oktober war die Inflationsrate wegen eines Berechnungseffekts auf 1,2% gesprungen, im November 2001 hatte sie 0,3% betragen.

Kritisch: Arbeitslosigkeit und Investitionen

Die Arbeitslosigkeit wird zunehmen. Das seco befürchtet für 2003 einen Anstieg der durchschnittlichen Arbeitslosenquote auf 3,6%, bis Ende 2003 sogar auf 3,8%.

Kritisch ist auch die seit Anfang 2001 anhaltende Investitionskrise. Sie wird sich voraussichtlich weiter verschärfen, wobei die Abwärtsspirale durch den Rückgang der Bauinvestitionen vermutlich noch beschleunigt wird.

Tiefe Zinsen, der bereits erfolgte Kapazitätsabbau der Firmen und die sich anbahnende leichte Erholung der Weltkonjunktur wären zwar gute Voraussetzungen für wieder steigende Investitionen. Entscheidend werden aber die Ertragserwartungen der Unternehmen sein.

Die meisten Unternehmen verschieben ihre Investitionen in die Zukunft, doch ohne Investitionen kann eine Volkswirtschaft nicht wachsen. Noch stützen der Konsum der Privaten und des Staates die Wirtschaft, doch wie lange noch?

Kein Aufschwung aus eigener Kraft

Aus eigener Kraft wird die Schweiz den Aufschwung nicht schaffen. Die konjunkturelle Wiederbelebung hängt von der Auslandnachfrage und der geopolitischen Entwicklung (drohender Irak- Krieg) ab.

Als wichtigster Exportpartner spielt Deutschland und seine wirtschaftliche Entwicklung für die Schweiz eine grosse Rolle.

Dort ist die Konsumentenstimmung im November aufgrund der geplanten Steuer- und Abgabenerhöhungen und der schwachen Wirtschaftslage jedoch auf den tiefsten Stand seit sechs Jahren eingebrochen.

Was meint economiesuisse?

Für den Dachverband der Schweizer Wirtschaft, economiesuisse, liegt die Lösung auf der Hand:

Keine staatlichen Konjunktur-Massnahmen, sondern Investitionen in Forschung und Bildung und die Senkung der Staatsausgaben seien wichtige Voraussetzungen für künftiges Wirtschaftswachstum.

Auch weitere Liberalisierungs-Massnahmen seien wichtig für die schweizerische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit.

Allerdings steht economiesuisse mit der letzteren Forderung zur Zeit wohl eher alleine da.

swissinfo und Agenturen

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/InternationalForecaster…



International Forecaster November, 2002 (#5) -

Precious Metals + Extra

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

Pakistan and Malaysia are in direct conflict with the IMF and World Bank. Pakistan has decreed that within 12 months an interest-free monetary system will be adopted. We believe that soon the gold dinar will be used throughout the entire Muslim world for international trade. In the process we expect the elitists to launch all kinds of problems on Malaysia, including terrorist attacks.

Central banks are lending gold, accepting the credit risk, and receiving no compensation. That sort of business conduct currently means they are lending gold to suppress the price.

Desperate people do desperate things. Control of the gold market by the gold manipulation Cartel will soon be over. Fiat money is about to die an ignoble death. The dollar is in the process of collapsing, as the FED creates trillions more and that will be followed by a stampede out of dollar denominated investments. Historically deflation has been fought over and over again by inflation and it’s never worked. The FED now has us believing it will. We’ll bet on history. We are already in deflation as we have explained for months that is why the economy can’t and will not respond to inflationary stimulus. That stimulus only makes the dollar weaker and gold more attractive. While this proceeds we have one scandal after another. The latest, which we wrote about some time ago, is the National Century Financial fraud. This is the next Enron. Guess who were on the company’s board? Yes, you guessed it, two bankers from JP Morgan Chase. One was even on the audit committee and Morgan was trustee on one of their funding vehicles. All we can say is some due diligence. This is just another nail in Morgan’s coffin.

Mark your calendars, things political, economic, technical, fundamental will all come together by mid-December for an explosion in gold and silver prices and shares. The dollar and the US stock market will slide, taking other markets with it. Hold fast to our recommendations and add positions. We don’t think Iraq will comply, and on December 10th or thereabout, the war should begin and America will experience more terrorism.

[ThaiGuru]

By BILL MURPHY, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

November 30, 2002

Chris Powell, Reg Howe, the entire GATA ARMY,
and I have worked diligently for four years
to expose a financial scandal. On the eve of
the Thanksgiving weekend, GATA received a
press release concerning a French investment
group that had taken issue with the Bank For
International Settlements for their lowball
forced buyout of private shareholders. The
ramifications of the defeat of the BIS ought
to be profoundly in GATA`s favor. First, the
press release:

* * *

DEMINOR PRESS RELEASE
26/11/2002
THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS:
FIRST VICTORY FOR THE FORMER MINORITY
SHAREHOLDERS

On 25 November 2002, the Arbitral Tribunal in
The Hague made public its decision dated 22
November 2002 regarding the Bank for
International Settlement case.

The Arbitral Tribunal declared the price of
CHF 16,000 imposed by BIS to be inequitable.
The Court has already condemned the BIS to
pay an additional compensation, which will be
superior to CHF 7,000 (approximately EUR
4,800) per share. The precise amount will be
determined by the Tribunal at a later date,
taking into account, among others, the
evaluation of real estate and a discount
rate.

Deminor is delighted at this ruling, which
recognises the unfair treatment of minority
shareholders by the Bank for International
Settlements. The Bank applied a discount of
53 percent on the adjusted net asset value of
the BIS (evaluated at CHF 33,820 per share)
during the January 2001 squeeze-out.

By sentencing the BIS to pay an additional
indemnification, the Court of The Hague
assented to Deminor`s arguments contesting
the valuation method adopted by J.P Morgan
(advisory bank) and by Arthur Andersen
(independent expert).

However, Deminor, which launched the
proceedings against these establishments
(including B.I.S.) before the "Tribunal de
Commerce" of Paris in December 2001 on behalf
of its clients, is of the opinion that the
indemnification is still insufficient to be
considered equitable for minority
shareholders.

Accordingly, while rejoicing at the Tribunal
in The Hague`s ruling against BIS, Deminor
will pursue the proceeding and will take all
necessary measures to defend the interest of
former minority shareholders.

As a reminder, the Bank for International
Settlements joins more than 50 central banks
worldwide, including the Bank of France, the
Federal Reserve Bank, the National Bank of
Belgium, and the Central Bank of England. Its
Board is composed of the governors of the G7
states.

* * *

Why, GATA supporters may ask, is this
development so important?

Let us go back a bit. In an audacious
maneuver, GATA`s Reg Howe filed the following
bold lawsuit. (If this is new to you, I
suggest you take the time to read it, since
GATA`s critics refuse to and do not refute).

* * *

The following complaint was filed on December
7, 2000, in the United States District Court
for the District of Massachusetts, Boston,
Massachusetts.

http://www.goldensextant.com/Complaint.html#anchor3130


Later, Reg filed this opposition motion in
the court:

http://www.goldensextant.com/OppositionDOJReply.html#anchor7…

In essence, Reg took on the financial power
structure of the United States. One man had
the gumption to take on the most powerful and
wealthy people in America -- people who have
done as much to hurt my country as anyone in
history. Our financial markets have been
reeling the past few years as a result of
their misguided, arrogant, and corrupt
financial maneuverings in the gold and
financial markets.

When Reg filed the lawsuit suit, the
establishment and the Doug Caseys of the
world cracked, "Howe will be laughed out of
court." The Gold Cartel thought the same and
tried to do just that last November. It did
not quite work out that way. Here`s what
GATA`s Chris Powell`s wrote about the one
hearing in the case on November 6, 2001:

* * *

The case of Howe vs. Bank for International
Settlements et al. -- I like to call it Howe
vs. All the Money in the World -- was roughed
up a little today but survived its first day
of hearing in federal court in Boston.

During 2 1/2 hours of oral argument, U.S.
District Judge Reginald C. Lindsay dismissed
two counts of the lawsuit involving
securities fraud charges against defendant
J.P. Morgan/Chase, and ruled that the
plaintiff`s method of serving lawsuit notice
papers against the BIS -- by mail in English
instead of by personal service in German --
was insufficient.

But the two dismissed securities fraud counts
were secondary to the lawsuit`s substance,
and the problem with the lawsuit notice
probably can be fixed by a pricey translator
if the lawsuit is allowed to proceed.

The judge took the remainder of the case back
to his chambers for drafting a written
decision on the plaintiffs` motions to
dismiss the rest of the lawsuit. That could
take weeks or months.

The case was called at 2:30 p.m. in a
beautiful and huge courtroom in the opulent
new U.S. courthouse just across Fort Point
Channel from gleaming downtown Boston. About
30 people sat in the audience section at the
back of the courtroom, some of them GATA
supporters, including a few who had come
quite a long way to watch.

Plaintiff Howe sat alone at the counsel`s
table on the audience`s left. At the
counsel`s table on the right sat his
opponents, nine lawyers representing the BIS,
Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, J.P.
Morgan/Chase, Citigroup, the U.S. Treasury
Department, the Federal Reserve Board, and
the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Behind
them in the gallery were still a few more
defendants` lawyers. The defendants` lawyers
seemed to be smirking over their having had
to come all this way just to confront a mere
pro-se litigant, but they seemed to be
smirking less when it was over.

About two-thirds of the hearing consisted of
Judge Lindsay`s questioning Howe about the
case and its likely weaknesses. The judge was
exceptionally well-informed about both the
legal technicalities and the broader issues
behind them. While he sought to move the
hearing along, he also was pretty indulgent
in letting Howe explain things.

The hearing wasn`t really about whether the
gold market is manipulated. It was about
whether there is any basis in law for the
suit. Thus it turns on legal issues and
technicalities that will interest few of the
partisans of gold and free markets -- issues
like the very limited circumstances under
which the government and government officials
may be sued for official acts. But a few
observations from this partisan may be of
interest:

The judge had trouble seeing in the lawsuit`s
claims possible evidence that the bullion
banks had conspired with each other rather
than with the federal government, other than
what was called "parallel conduct" -- their
doing the same things in the market at the
same times. I thought Howe answered this well
by noting that the bullion bank defendants
had issued the overwhelming majority of gold
and interest rate derivatives and essentially
were themselves the markets for those
instruments.

The judge seemed almost obtuse in not
understanding Howe`s claim that there was
fraud in the BIS` forcibly redeeming the
shares of its private shareholders at less
than fair value when there had never been any
indication to the private shareholders that
their shares could be taken this way.

One of the lawyers for the government
asserted the government`s right, under the
laws establishing the Federal Reserve Board
and the U.S. Treasury Department`s Exchange
Stabilization Fund, to trade in gold in a way
affecting gold`s price. That is, he almost
seemed to be claiming, on behalf of the
government, the right to do exactly what the
lawsuit complains of, without actually
admitting that this was happening. (Whether
he is right is exactly the legal issue the
suit seeks to settle.) Howe was excellent in
rebutting this claim. He argued that prior to
1974 Congress had fixed the gold price, but
since then has left gold`s price to the
market. Thus, Howe said, any government
trading in gold cannot constitutionally aim
to fix the price, and certainly not
surreptitiously. (I thought Howe got by far
the better of this exchange, at least
establishing a point worth litigating.
Unfortunately I was sitting on the wrong side
of the courtroom. We`ll just have to wait to
find out what the judge thinks.)

Howe was just as effective in describing the
unfairness of the BIS` liquidating its
private shareholders without recourse and
without arbitration. While the judge at first
had wanted to skip argument on the
arbitration issue, considering it examined
adequately in the legal briefs, Howe managed
to get his approval to make one point and
then another and another, and the effect was
very strong politically -- it gave the
impression of ordinary small investors
getting screwed by arrogant and powerful
people. This happened to be the last issue
discussed, so Howe finished strong, the other
side weak.

When it was over, the courtroom cleared out
quickly, and Howe was left alone at the
counsel table packing his books and papers
into his briefcases. Forgive the
editorializing, but I couldn`t help but think
of the scene at the end of the trial in that
wonderful movie, "To Kill a Mockingbird,"
when Gregory Peck, playing the quietly heroic
defense lawyer, Atticus Finch, does the same
thing, seemingly alone -- and yet he is not
alone, but rather watched by the oppressed
people in the gallery with awe, admiration,
and respect for standing up against the most
hateful and vicious power.

What I saw today was really not so different.

I won`t guess what will happen with this
case; anything can. Maybe the essence of what
has happened today is that we could have lost
the whole case but didn`t. (I spent some time
later with Howe and his business associate,
Bob Landis, and, analyzing the day
clinically, almost as a sport, they seemed
ready to be hopeful.)

We still may lose the case on the
technicalities in a few weeks and should be
prepared for that.

But two things:

Enough of the cursed cynicism that the courts
are as rigged as the markets, that there is
no fighting the power. We know some things
about market rigging but there is no evidence
that anything in court today was rigged. We
got a day in court if not quite yet OUR day
in court. And for all its faults this remains
a country where one brave man pleading his
own case can summon the representatives of
all the money in the world and put the
bastards in danger of having to answer for
themselves.

The lawsuit is an important front in our
struggle for free markets and honest dealing
but it is not the only front, and, win or
lose here, our strategy and plan will be, in
Churchill`s words, KBO: Keep buggering on.
Thanks to GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and Howe
and those who have come to their assistance,
we have discovered that the scheme against
gold is only part of a bigger scheme
involving interest rates and currencies to
deprive the financial markets of any
standards of value and to expropriate the
world for the benefit of certain Wall Street
interests and to make the world the slave of
the U.S. dollar.

This deeply shames Americans who understand
it. That is why they will continue to oppose
it as best they can regardless of what
happens in court. It is an anti-imperialist
cause and thus a great cause. And, as
Churchill said, "When great causes are on the
move in the world, we learn that we are
spirits, not animals, and that something is
going on in space and time, and beyond space
and time, which, whether we like it or not,
spells duty."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

In the end, Reg`s case was dismissed because
Judge Lindsay ruled that Reg did not have the
proper "standing" to bring forth the case.
The judge did not disparage Reg in any way.
The judge`s main objection was that what Reg
presented to the court should have been
brought against the bullion banks by a gold
mining company doing business in the United
States. In essence, the judge said the U.S.
Government is above the law and could not be
sued.

Judge Lindsay did not even bother to address
Reg`s complaint against the BIS. A U.S.
citizen could not get a federal judge to rule
on an extremely important issue, denying due
process of individual financial rights
against powerful banking institutions.

Was it important an issue? I guess so. For
the BIS` own arbitration tribunal now has
ruled against the bank in an astounding
decision that makes plain how right Reg was
all along.

First, comments on the arbitration panel`s
ruling by Reg himself:

* * *

The Bank for International Settlements may
have dodged justice at the hands of the U.S.
federal courts in New York and Boston, but it
did not escape altogether. In a decision
released November 22, 2002 --

www.pca-cpa.org/PDF/BIS%20Award%20final%202.pdf

-- the Arbitration Tribunal established at
the Hague to hear disputes involving the BIS
ruled that the bank employed an improper
valuation methodology in connection with its
compulsory withdrawal in January 2001 of all
privately held shares of its American,
Belgian, and French issues. At that time, the
Bank paid SwF16,000 (approximately US$9,280)
per share based on a valuation prepared by
J.P. Morgan and a supporting fairness opinion
by Arthur Andersen.

In rejecting the bank`s valuation, the
tribunal ruled (at paragraph 209) that the
former private shareholders should receive "a
proportionate share of the Net Asset Value of
the Bank, discounted by 30 percent," and that
for this purpose, the bank`s NAV is SwF33,820
(or US$19,034), plus the appraised value of
the bank`s real estate. In adopting the 30
percent discount rate rather than the
discount rate in excess of 50 percent
employed by J.P. Morgan, the Tribunal stated
(at paragraph 201): "[T]he most telling
evidence in favor of a discount of 30 percent
is the consistent use of it by the bank in
pricing shares issued to new central banks."

The Tribunal has retained jurisdiction to
determine the valuation of the bank`s real
estate, the exact per share amount remaining
due to former shareholders (including
interest thereon), the final allocation of
costs of the arbitration, and certain other
minor issues. Accordingly, if the former
shareholders` proportionate share of the
bank`s real estate is sufficient to cover the
costs of the arbitration, they should receive
an additional payment of over SwF7674 (or
US$4,044) per share.

The three claimants in the arbitration were
Dr. Horst Reineccius of Germany, Mr. Pierre
Mathieu and la Société Hippique de La Châtre
of France, and First Eagle SoGen Funds Inc.,
of the United States, represented by
Debevoise & Plympton (John H. Hall and Donald
Francis Donovan). First Eagle`s gold fund,
managed by Jean-Marie Eveillard, was the
largest private shareholder in the bank..

* * *

Reg Howe`s complaint was filed a year before
the rash of corporate scandals that recently
have ravaged America. Yet look who shows up
among the primary characters in the BIS
charade, as cited in the Deminor press
release:

"The Hague assented to Deminor`s arguments
contesting the valuation method adopted by
J.P Morgan (advisory bank) and by Arthur
Andersen (independent expert)."

Both Morgan and Andersen are up to their neck
in the Enron scandal, among many others.
Since Reg filed his suit, Andersen, that
esteemed accounting firm, has been disgraced
and put out of business, while Morgan
continues to be found out as a banking
scoundrel. Both Morgan and Andersen have now
been advised by the BIS arbitration panel
that they did the BIS`s private shareholders
wrong.

What else is new with Morgan and Arthur
Andersen? AA is slowly becoming history.
Morgan is going to follow.

That Judge Lindsay did not let Reg have his
day in court is profoundly disturbing in
light of the ruling of the BIS arbitration
panel. It must have Thomas Jefferson stirring
in his grave, given GATA`s well-documented
findings:

-- The U.S. financial markets are
manipulated. We do not have free markets.
While GATA suspects that many markets are
rigged, we have extensive proof that the gold
price is managed by a Gold Cartel.

-- There is no free press in America either
when it comes to financial matters. News
about GATA has been suppressed in the
mainstream U.S. financial press, even though
we have had extensive discussions with every
major U.S. financial press outlet. The phrase
"message discipline" comes to mind. The U.S.
financial press works under that
understanding of the political/banking world.
I consider them to be a disgrace to the
principles they supposedly uphold.

Now we find that an arbitration panel
convened by the BIS itself has ruled against
the bank when a U.S. court would not even
consider the same complaint.

What a great country America has become:

-- Rigged financial markets

-- No freedom of the financial press

-- A judiciary that will not tackle the big
banks and a deceitful government

Do not take GATA`s findings lightly, gold fan
or no. While this started out as our quest to
expose the gold fraud and effect a free gold
market, GATA`s journey is taking us into more
profound concerns:

Thomas Jefferson said:

"The end of democracy and the defeat of the
American Revolution will occur when
government falls into the hands of the
lending institutions and moneyed
incorporations."

"I believe that banking institutions are more
dangerous to our liberties than standing
armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed
aristocracy that has set the government at
defiance. The issuing power should be taken
from the banks and restored to the people, to
whom it properly belongs."

"If the American people ever allow private
banks to control the issue of their money,
first by inflation and then by deflation, the
banks and corporations that will grow up
around them will deprive the people of their
property until their children will wake up
homeless on the continent their fathers
conquered."

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to
the accidental opinion of the day; but a
series of oppressions, begun at a
distinguished period, and pursued unalterably
through every change of ministers too plainly
proves a deliberate, systematic plan of
reducing us to slavery."

That is exactly what GATA finds taking place.
The lending institutions and moneyed
incorporations like the Federal Reserve must
be stopped before they take America down. The
only way that is going to happen in the
short-term is to expose the gold fraud. It is
time that the U.S. Government and the bullion
banks be held to a standard that the entire
investment world is clamoring for: truth,
transparency, and accountability.

----------------------------------------------------

RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

http://www.theminingweb.com/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.usagold.com/

http://www.GoldSeek.com/

http://www.goldenbar.com/

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

http://www.sharelynx.net

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

http://www.goldensextant.com

http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html


Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm

----------------------------------------------------

COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED
BY OUR MEMBERS

Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
http://www.USAGold.com

Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US [phone]
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
[e-mail]

Colorado Gold
222 South 5th St.
Montrose, Colorado 81401
http://www.ColoradoGold.com
Don Stott, Proprietor
1-888-786-8822
[e-mail]


Investment Rarities Inc.
7850 Metro Parkwa
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425
http://www.gloomdoom.com
Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
[e-mail]


Lee Certified Coins
P.O. Box 1045
454 Daniel Webster Highway
Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
www.certifiedcoins.com
Ed Lee, Proprietor
1-800-835-6000
[e-mail]


Miles Frankl Ltd.
3601 Park Center Building
Suite 120
St. Louis Park, Minn. 55416
1-800-822-8080 / 952-929-1129
fax: [phone]
http://www.milesfranklin.com
Contacts: David Schectman,
Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel


Resource Consultants Inc.
6139 South Rural Road
Suite 103
Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
Pat Gorman, Proprietor
1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
[e-mail]


America Trading Corp.
15018 North Tatum Blvd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85032
http://www.buycoin.com
Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
1-800-BUY-COIN
[e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

From: "cxpowell" <GATAComm@a...>
Date: Sun Dec 1, 2002 3:18 am
Subject: Fed has plans to manipulate all markets, and discusses them openly

10:17p ET Saturday, November 30, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Congratulations and thanks to GATA`s friend
Marshall Auerback for his latest commentary
at David Tice`s PrudentBear.com site,
"Helicopter Money, or the Road to Weimar?"

With long quotations, Auerback has documented
how Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Fed
Governor Ben. S. Bernanke have been discussing
openly how the Federal Reserve might
manipulate not only the U.S. Treasury bond
market but also the markets for everything else
through increasingly direct intervention.

Some people say GATA is nuts for its so-called
"conspiracy theory" of the gold market, but as
Auerback shows, the Fed has not only compiled
detailed plans of comprehensive manipulation
of markets but also is raising them in public to
prepare the world for the more open interventions
to come.

Auerback`s essay is brilliant commentary but,
more than that, it is NEWS for those with eyes
to read it -- the biggest economic news around.

You can find it here:

www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Sonntag 01.12.2002, MEZ 11:18

Schweizer Gauchos kommen zurück

swissinfo 30. November 2002 19:29

Hunderte von Argentinien-Schweizern kehren in die Schweiz zurück. Sie fliehen vor der grossen Wirtschaftskrise.

Die meisten landen in Zürich oder Genf und sind auf Sozialhilfe angewiesen.

Argentinien: Von der Immigration zur Emigration. (Keystone)

Über 400 argentinisch-schweizerische Doppelbürger haben dieses Jahr ihre Heimat in Argentinien verlassen und kommen zurück in die Heimat ihrer Väter und Grossväter. Diese waren als Armutsflüchtlinge seinerzeit nach Südamerika ausgewandert - nun findet eine eigentliche Rückwanderung statt.

"Für die Doppelbürger ist die Schweiz sehr attraktiv", sagt Nicoletta Regazzi Pfeiffer.

Die Leiterin der Sozialdienste bei der Schweizer Botschaft in Buenos Aires gibt aber zu bedenken: "Viele kennen weder Land noch Leute, aber die Schweiz übt in diesen schwierigen Zeiten eine enorme Anziehungskraft aus."

Viele der Rückwanderer sprechen nur Spanisch und sind, in der Schweiz angekommen, sofort auf Sozialhilfe angewiesen.

Die Schweiz ist verpflichtet, diesen Doppelbürgern zu helfen. In Argentinien hingegen hat die dortige Staatsbürgerschaft Vorrang, Schweizer Bundeshilfe vor Ort beschränkt sich allein auf Schweizer Bürger, umfasst aber die Doppelbürger nicht.

Fast 15`000 Doppelbürger leben in Argentinien – täglich landen mehrere von ihnen in der Schweiz – Tendenz zunehmend.

Die meisten lassen sich in Zürich und Genf nieder.

Dramatische Peso-Abwertung

Vor einem Jahr wertete die argentinische Regierung den Peso massiv ab – die Währung ist im Verhältnis zum Schweizer Franken dadurch heute vier mal weniger wert. Dramatisch – wie sich am Beispiel der freiwilligen AHV zeigt.

Der Jahresmindestbeitrag von 756 Franken wird für die Auslandschweizer unerschwinglich. Umgerecht in Peso entspricht dies einem Jahressalär eines argentinischen Volksschullehrers.

Wer die AHV-Beiträge nicht zahlt, fliegt nach zwei Jahren aus dem AHV-System.

Eine mögliche Lösung sieht Rudolf Wyder, Direktor der Auslandschweizer-Organisation (ASO), in einer Stundung der Beiträge, bis sich die argentinische Wirtschaft wieder erholen kann: "Dieser Schritt ist dringend nötig."

Das Bundesamt für Sozialversicherung hat jedoch für diesen Vorschlag kein Gehör, die rigorose Peso-Abwertung sei nicht höhere Gewalt wie eine Naturkatastrophe, sondern eine konjunkturelle Schwankung.

Nun setzen sich Parlamentarier für die in Not gekommen Auslandschweizer ein – Sozialministerin Dreifuss wird diesen Montag dazu Stellung beziehen.

Eldorado Pampa

Ab 1860 bis in die 40er Jahre verliessen rund 40`000 grösstenteils arme Auswanderer die Schweiz und erhofften sich in Argentinien das grosse Glück. Die meisten liessen sich in Buenos Aires nieder, aber auch in der Pampa Santa Fés oder in der Region von Cordoba.

Zur Zeit der grossen Weltwirtschaftskrise siedelten Schweizer Auswanderer auch im Dreiländereck zu Paraguay und Brasilien – Tausende von Deutschschweizern liessen sich im Dschungelgebiet der nördlichen Provinz Missiones nieder – viele sind völlig verarmt.

swissinfo, Peter Salvisberg und Sergio Regazzoni

***

Wieviele Auswanderer aus Deutschland (heutige, potenzielle Rückwanderer) leben eigentlich in Argentinien. Kennt da jemand genauere Zahlen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Diese wichtige, und positive Meldung von vergangenen Freitag zum Goldgeschehen, habe ich doch glatt übersehen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021129/16/35928.html#Scene_1

International

Friday November 29, 4:21 PM
Pakistan Govt Eases Restrictions on Import of Gold, Silver

ISLAMABAD, Nov 29 Asia Pulse -

The government on Thursday allowed the import of gold and silver in bulk and has done away with the condition of seeking approval of the Ministry of Commerce for its import.

The decision was announced through a customs notification amending the budgetary notification of SRO 358 issued on June 15, 2002.

Currently, the import of gold and silver in bulk was allowed only to the companies registered and authorized by the ministry of commerce on payment of customs duty at the rate of $1 per 11.664 grams for gold and $2 per kg for silver.

The rate of customs duty would remain the same, however, the condition of registration of such importers with ministry of commerce, made compulsory through the budgetary notification, was waived.

According to an official announcement, the import of gold and silver in bulk was allowed provided the importer arranged his own foreign exchange for the purpose and the import duty was realized in foreign exchange.

(PPI)

[ThaiGuru]

Billigere Oelpreise?



http://www.ameinfo.com/cgi-bin/fndaily/listnews.cgi?#1210208…

Last updated: December 1st, 2002 - 08:58 - UAE local time (GMT+4)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saudi ups output to protect economy

Posted: December 1st, 2002

Saudi Arabia has pushed its oil production up by more than 1m bpd to protect its economy as the USA prepares to attack Iraq, reports the Washington Post. The newspaper said this made Saudi Arabia the No1 supplier of oil to the USA. It said the kingdom was building a USD100m war chest to help its economy withstand a long period of low oil prices if Saddam Hussein is removed from power in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Oder andersrum gesagt, schwacher Dollar und Aktienverluste werden Gold stärken!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1038505024453.html?nv=lnen

Aus der FTD vom 2.12.2002

Edelmetallmarkt: Starker Dollar und Aktiengewinne schwächen Gold

Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Der Dollar und die Börsen werden weiterhin die Richtung am Goldmarkt vorgeben. Bleiben beide stark, wird der Goldpreis erneut schwächeln. Einzige Unsicherheit sind die geopolitischen Risiken, die nach den Anschlägen der vergangenen Woche ins Bewusstsein der Anleger zurückgekehrt sind.

Druck könnte zudem von der Schließung vorhandener Pluspositionen an der New Yorker Comex ausgehen. Dennoch ist nicht mit einem starken Einbruch zu rechnen, sagen Marktteilnehmer. Unterstützung gebe es bereits bei 315 $ je Unze durch neue physische Nachfrage. Auf diesem Niveau verläuft zudem der 100-Tage-Durchschnittspreis.

In der vergangenen Woche eröffnete Gold bei 320 $, fiel dann jedoch wegen des starken Dollar und der Börsenerholung rasch auf 318 $ je Unze zurück. Nach überraschend guten Wirtschaftsdaten aus den USA verstärkte sich dieser Trend am Mittwoch.

In dünnem Handel hielt sich die Notierung für das Edelmetall trotzdem oberhalb von 316/317 $ je Unze. Unterstützung kam hierbei auch von der Angst vor möglichen Terroranschlägen, die vor langen Wochenenden in den USA regelmäßig aufkommt. Die Attentate auf ein israelisches Verkehrsflugzeug und ein Hotel in Kenia gaben dem Goldpreis am Donnerstag wieder leichten Auftrieb. Dieser Trend hielt bis zum Wochenschluss an.

Die Angebotsseite ist stabil. In Südafrika stieg die Produktion in den ersten neun Monaten marginal auf 9,52 Mio. Unzen (2001: 9,29 Mio. Unzen). Nach dem Start der Goldbörse in Shanghai am 30. Oktober plant die chinesische Zentralbank, den Handel mit dem Edelmetall in der ersten Hälfte 2003 an vier Großbanken abzugeben.

Auch wenn sich Platin in den vergangenen Tagen in einer engen Handelsspanne von 581 bis 590 $ pro Unze bewegte, haben positive Wirtschaftsdaten die Grundstimmung aufgehellt. Einen erneuten Test der 600-$-Marke schließen Marktteilnehmer nicht aus. Die Nummer eins der Platinproduzenten, Angloplat, warnte vor steigenden Preisen. Zudem erwarten Analysten für den November relativ gute Zahlen bei den US-Autoverkäufen. Wenig Dynamik gab es bei Silber. Nachdem der Preis gleich zu Wochenbeginn knapp 8 Cent verlor, bewegte er sich dann zwischen 4,42 und 4,45 $ pro Unze.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach leitet bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein den Edelmetall- und Rohstoffhandel.

2002 Financial Times Deutschland

[ThaiGuru]

Oder andersrum gesagt, schwacher Dollar und Aktienverluste werden Gold stärken!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1038505024453.html?nv=lnen

Aus der FTD vom 2.12.2002

Edelmetallmarkt: Starker Dollar und Aktiengewinne schwächen Gold

Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Der Dollar und die Börsen werden weiterhin die Richtung am Goldmarkt vorgeben. Bleiben beide stark, wird der Goldpreis erneut schwächeln. Einzige Unsicherheit sind die geopolitischen Risiken, die nach den Anschlägen der vergangenen Woche ins Bewusstsein der Anleger zurückgekehrt sind.

Druck könnte zudem von der Schließung vorhandener Pluspositionen an der New Yorker Comex ausgehen. Dennoch ist nicht mit einem starken Einbruch zu rechnen, sagen Marktteilnehmer. Unterstützung gebe es bereits bei 315 $ je Unze durch neue physische Nachfrage. Auf diesem Niveau verläuft zudem der 100-Tage-Durchschnittspreis.

In der vergangenen Woche eröffnete Gold bei 320 $, fiel dann jedoch wegen des starken Dollar und der Börsenerholung rasch auf 318 $ je Unze zurück. Nach überraschend guten Wirtschaftsdaten aus den USA verstärkte sich dieser Trend am Mittwoch.

In dünnem Handel hielt sich die Notierung für das Edelmetall trotzdem oberhalb von 316/317 $ je Unze. Unterstützung kam hierbei auch von der Angst vor möglichen Terroranschlägen, die vor langen Wochenenden in den USA regelmäßig aufkommt. Die Attentate auf ein israelisches Verkehrsflugzeug und ein Hotel in Kenia gaben dem Goldpreis am Donnerstag wieder leichten Auftrieb. Dieser Trend hielt bis zum Wochenschluss an.

Die Angebotsseite ist stabil. In Südafrika stieg die Produktion in den ersten neun Monaten marginal auf 9,52 Mio. Unzen (2001: 9,29 Mio. Unzen). Nach dem Start der Goldbörse in Shanghai am 30. Oktober plant die chinesische Zentralbank, den Handel mit dem Edelmetall in der ersten Hälfte 2003 an vier Großbanken abzugeben.

Auch wenn sich Platin in den vergangenen Tagen in einer engen Handelsspanne von 581 bis 590 $ pro Unze bewegte, haben positive Wirtschaftsdaten die Grundstimmung aufgehellt. Einen erneuten Test der 600-$-Marke schließen Marktteilnehmer nicht aus. Die Nummer eins der Platinproduzenten, Angloplat, warnte vor steigenden Preisen. Zudem erwarten Analysten für den November relativ gute Zahlen bei den US-Autoverkäufen. Wenig Dynamik gab es bei Silber. Nachdem der Preis gleich zu Wochenbeginn knapp 8 Cent verlor, bewegte er sich dann zwischen 4,42 und 4,45 $ pro Unze.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach leitet bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein den Edelmetall- und Rohstoffhandel.

2002 Financial Times Deutschland

[ThaiGuru]

test

[niemandweiss]

hi Thai

[Sozzi]

u.a. auf n-tv läuft immer häufiger der Werbespot "Legen Sie sich etwas Gold in´s Depot..."...Wer bezahlt diesen Spot?...Ist es die Bundesregierung, die die Katastrophe kommen sieht und Ihre Bürger "retten" will oder wer ist steckt dahinter?

[crashkommt]

so wie ich das sehe muesste es Manfred_1 sein


was der in den letzten Jahren alles nachkaufte


MfG

[manfred1_I]

an crashkommt

diesen Werbespot könnte ich erst bezahlen, wenn
Macmin bei 1 EURO steht.

Bis dann.

[mickym [VIP]]

@Sozzi

Diese Frage hat @Statz auch schon gestellt und @ThaiGuru

hat Sie im Posting

#3171 von ThaiGuru 27.11.02 22:19:09

so beantwortet.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

December 5 - Gold $324.50 up $2.30 - Silver $4.61 up 5 cents

HOWE/BOLSER REPORT STUNS GOLD/INVESTMENT WORLD!!!!!

This morning I received a phone call from a London based gold producer CEO. Few come more highly regarded than this gold pro. I had not spoken to him for many months, so the call was a pleasant surprise. He told me he read the Howe, Bolser report (Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate) and remarked it was absolutely "stunning." He was sending it all over London - to major investors, the press, gold community, ect. I could almost see the big smile on his face. Then, he went on to say that he had just returned from Zurich and (of all things) GATA was the talk of the gold world in Switzerland. "That is all anyone wanted to talk about," were his exact words.

After falling off my chair and picking myself up, this email came in:

"I just got of the phone with my commodities broker.
He knew a whole bunch about GATA and LeMetropole Cafe. He was very upbeat regarding the BIS news and report by Reg, high on PMs and down on JPM. Seemed to be with the program, ours that is.

He claimed to have a friend at the Journal who was stunned by Reg Howe`s info. His friend at the Journal claimed that you are soon to get some ink/interview in the journal.
Any truth?"

Wouldn’t that be nice! No phone calls from the WSJ yet, but it should not be too long before that is the case. The work of Reg and Mike is THAT GOOD and cannot be denied. In essence, it proves that GATA has been right all along. Can you picture that Gold Cartel bugler getting read to sound RETREAT!!

What is so important is the investment world now has conclusive evidence of the size of the gold loans/swaps, or the MASSIVE short gold position of the bullion banks. They cannot get out of that position.

As stated by MIDAS ad nauseam over the years, they are trapped. One does not need be an Einstein to understand the implications of the gargantuan short position. A monster squeeze is coming. Those long gold and the gold shares will make fortunes. Who would not want in NOW? Besides, what is the risk here? $15 on the downside. The upside is somewhere between $500, $1000 to $1500. Is that any kind of trade to pass up? Once investors around the world realize what has transpired in the gold market and understand the predicament of The Gold Cartel, those numbers won’t seem goofy at all. It will take a giant move in the gold price to clear the market.

This is key and worth repeating:

It is one thing for MIDAS to throw around talk like that. It is quite another for big league investors to study the work of Mike and Reg. They cannot help but want to be long gold and the shares after doing so. This report has only been out ONE DAY. Because of its significance to the investment world, it is spreading all over the place. There will be a myriad of investor committee meetings regarding gold and this report in the days and weeks to come. It is hard for me to imagine that most will not decide to take a plunge into gold.

Do I sound excited!!! Yes, indeedee. We are almost there. The Gold Cartel can huff and puff all they want to in the days and weeks ahead. We got them by the you know whats!!!!

If you have not read the Howe/Bolser masterpiece, Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate, you can find it here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

(Den Report gibt es bereits auch in deutscher Sprache zu lesen. Einfach E-Mail an [e-mail] senden, und "kostenlos" eine deutsche Uebersetzung anfordern!TG)

Be sure to spread the word to the financial press and to all investors!

Now for today’s action:

Gold’s early sell-off was met by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Both came in as aggressive buyers. The trading action was like that I have known in the past in markets that were not rigged. After a buck early sell-off, gold rose higher on the day and challenged a noticeable downtrend line in the spot market (see the charts at (www.Kitco.com or www.thebulliondesk.com) After rubbing up against the line most of the day, gold blew right through it late in the session and closed on the highs.

Yesterday, the open interest rose 4795 contracts to 163,218 contracts. Clearly, substantial SPEC buying took on The Gold Cartel crooks. The spec long position has been resolute for some time, as John Brimelow has often pointed out. They just got more so. The fact that gold could continued its rise today is significant. It will bolster spec excitement and should bring in many more players willing to take on the corrupt cabal.

One other positive aspect of today’s action on Comex was gold made new highs several times AND closed on its high of the day. Over the years, it usually failed to make new highs as the trading session wore on and most times closed mid-range on price advance days.

One explosive looking chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/23

Silver was firm all day long too and managed to close above critical resistance at $4.60. Silver can move like no other market. One day in the near future will see it climb $1 per ounce in a single trading session. Get ready for it!

If silver clears $4.75 basis March, it should FLY:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/33

As discussed in the last MIDAS, this news is very gold friendly:

Frankfurt, Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the first time in more than a year as economic growth stalls and inflation recedes.

Policy makers trimmed the minimum rate commercial banks are charged for loans in the dozen nations sharing the euro by half a percentage point to 2.75 percent, the lowest in three years. The cut, the first since November 2001, follows a reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve last month.

The $7 trillion economy, second only in size to the U.S., may shrink in the first quarter, the European Union`s executive branch predicts. That`s curbing inflation, which has exceeded the ECB`s 2 percent limit for more than two years.

``It`s a step in the right direction, but people shouldn`t believe it will solve all of our problems,`` said Heinrich von Pierer, chief executive officer of Siemens AG, whose orders fell this quarter….. –END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Dec 5 2002

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.93, PM $1.81, with world gold at $321.15 and $322. At and slightly below legal import point. A stalwart performance by the Indian gold buyer, which bodes ill for the bears.

With more yen-negative remarks by a Japanese Minister, it is increasingly apparent that Japan Inc is willing to let their currency slide. However, the trading public has not yet reacted. Shorts are said to be being covered, but yen prices are sluggish enough to allow the Trade houses to arbitrage: buy on TOCOM, sell offshore, which is putting some pressure on world gold in the early morning before India gets active. Nevertheless the active contract rose 9 yen to a level not seen since September 25, the equivalent of 36,168 Comex lots traded, but open interest fell by 1858 Comex equivalent. (The liquidation in Tokyo in the past several days, in fact, goes some way to offset the refusal of Comex spec longs to capitulate. NY traded an estimated 41,000 lots yesterday.)

Veteran market watcher Richard Russell has taken a further step forward in his progress in assessing the gold market:

"Gold -- You know, it`s fascinating. You can literally see it on the tape. Day after day the battle against gold goes on. Feb. gold opened up 2.50 today, then Fed gold climbed to a high of 324.50. From experience I waited for gold to be attacked. How do you attack gold? You do it with shorts. When you short an item you create supply. And sure enough, within an hour after the opening in came the short sellers and Feb. gold dropped back to up 1.10."

"Who would want to short gold? With all the possible "plays" in the market, who in the world would want to short gold? You tell me, I just can`t imagine. Unless it`s the gold banks or the still-hedged gold mines or the Fed or somebody fronting for the Fed. You tell me. It`s very mysterious, very predictable -- and it sure smells of manipulation."

Russell has good timing because yesterday Reg Howe published a new incisive analysis of the recent BIS derivatives data.

Click on http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

Imperative reading for any student of gold, it gives real hope that the covert gold pool may be reaching its’ termination.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

December 5, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled higher at $324.50 an ounce, up $2.30 an ounce from yesterday’s close. COMEX gold enjoyed a late short-covering rally on Thursday, hitting its highest in more than three weeks as it became a form of wealth insurance amid nervousness before Iraq`s weekend arms declaration deadline. "It`s the war premium, weekend, baby," said a bullion bank chief dealer. "This is clearly hitting stops and nobody wanting to be short for this weekend." Gold picked up in late trade on rumors of at least one major fund buying. Gold held firm on a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical concerns, and weakening equities market. "Economic data released this week were better than anticipated, but failed to inspire confidence in stocks, which in turn raised the profile of gold," said Altavest.com analyst Erik Gebhard. "Equity weakness has also provided additional catalyst to feed gold bulls." Peak Trading Group analyst Charles Nedoss noted that the gold market "has priced in a war premium and is trading with a bias to the upside."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $322.45 an ounce, up from $322.10 an ounce at the morning fixing. The European Central Bank`s move to cuts short-term interest rates by a half-point Thursday, as well as the "war of the words" regarding weapons inspections and Sunday`s deadline for Iraq`s declaration of its inventory of weapons of mass destruction "all hang over the gold market at the moment," UBS Warburg analyst John Reade told clients. The political tension between the U.S. and Iraq which has made investors reticent to sell gold, especially ahead of the Dec. 8 arms declaration by Iraq which some feel may provide the impetus for further friction between the two countries. According to JP Morgan`s daily technical analysis report issued late Wednesday, gold`s next target is $326 an ounce if it moved back above $322. On Thursday J.P. Morgan in its daily report reported on a technical basis, if the market cannot break up through $323.60 an ounce followed by $326.40 an ounce in the next few days then a correction back to $319 is likely. It should be noted that gold settled at $324.50 at the close in New York.

Earlier spot Gold closed at $321.75 an ounce on Thursday in Hong Kong, up $1.40 from Wednesday`s close of $320.35. Gold fell in Asia as the Japanese Yen continued to collapse spurring investors to take profits. "The yen broke through 125 yen and that triggered profit-taking," said Peter Tse, dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong. A stronger dollar makes the dollar-denominated precious metal more expensive for Japanese, prompting them to sell gold. "With the weaker yen, it was cheaper for Japanese trading houses to buy Tocom gold and sell it on the spot market," a Tokyo-based trader said, referring to buying of yen-based gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Japan`s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters he didn`t think the pace of the yen`s recent decline was too quick, adding to the growing perception that the country wants a weaker yen to help exporters and alleviate deflationary pressure. "It is the Malaysian New Year, so things are a bit quiet today," said Beh Hsia Wah, a dealer at United Overseas Bank in Singapore. "I think that we will be pretty much range bound today and tomorrow," Beh said, adding she put the range at $312-325 an ounce.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

An explosion ripped through a McDonald`s restaurant in the eastern Indonesian city of Makassar Thursday, killing two people, police said. Two people were seriously wounded and several were slightly hurt. A second explosion, which caused no casualties, occurred about an hour later in a car showroom about three miles away. The McDonald`s explosion came at 6:55 p.m., shortly after the breaking of the Muslim fasting period for Ramadan, when the restaurant was busy. The blasts came in the midst of an investigation of an October 12 bomb attack on the holiday island of Bali that killed at least 191 people, and which has been blamed on a regional Muslim militant group and the al Qaeda network.

The U.S. aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its battle group set sail for the Mediterranean on Thursday for what many sailors believed will be an inevitable showdown with Iraq. It has also been reported that the Bush administration has called up an additional 10,000 national guardsmen to active duty with plans to call up more from both the national guard and military reserves.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate for the first time in over a year by 50 basis points on Thursday to a three year low at 2.75 percent. In a day of central bank meetings, Denmark followed the ECB`s lead with a 50 basis point cut, the Swedish Riksbank cut its rates by a more modest quarter point while the Bank of England, also as expected, left its rates on hold.

Initial U.S. jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 355,000 in the week ended Nov. 30, the department said. That was the lowest since the week of Feb. 17, last year, and was lower than analysts` expectations for 378,000. The Labor Department said it can be difficult to seasonally adjust the numbers accurately during the holiday season in November and December. However, it did say the previous weeks` declines were a positive sign. The number of workers remaining on state unemployment aid fell sharply. Continuing claims dropped 123,000 to 3.5 million in the week ending Nov. 23, the latest week these data were available. The data is heavily skewed due to the shortened Thanksgiving Day holiday as government offices were closed on that week’s Thursday and Friday.

The U.S. economy is stuck in a slow, sluggish recovery that will last through 2003 and bring little relief to the nation`s tight job market, according to a widely watched economic forecast released on Thursday. The survey issued by the Anderson School at the University of California Los Angeles said even though business investment is picking up, the United States will see tepid growth over the next year because consumers won`t be able to keep up their robust pace of spending needed to really charge the economy. "The best we can hope for now is a sluggish 2003 with business spending picking up but consumer spending, particularly on autos, lagging behind," UCLA economist Ed Leamer said in the report. Leamer said the stock market, which has rallied since early October, may be a bit too optimistic in interpreting recent signs the economy is gaining a firm foothold on the path to recovery.

A Thanksgiving weekend shopping frenzy came too late to rescue U.S. retailers` November sales, as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other major players on Thursday reported monthly tallies at the low end of already conservative forecasts. Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 28 this year, six days later than in 2001, prompting many retailers to keep their November sales forecasts cautious. "We needed Thanksgiving to save Christmas," said Kevin Tawes, retail analyst with Independence Investments, an affiliate of John Hancock Financial Services. It took a strong Thanksgiving weekend for November sales to make even the lower end of reduced expectations, he said. "The holiday sales season so far has been a bust for most retailers," said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard`s Retail Consulting Group, which forecasts industry trends and consumer spending patterns. "The days leading up to Thanksgiving weekend were just a plain bust," he said, "and now we have to watch very carefully if the days following the weekend are any better." While Thanksgiving shopping was better than expected for retailers that attracted shoppers with heavy promotions and discounts, analysts doubt they can maintain brisk sales through the holiday season. A slow economy and the threat of war may be putting the brakes on consumer confidence, a key barometer of economic health. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so economists, analysts and stock traders are closely monitoring holiday sales reports.


Comment: Gold remains strong on weakness in the U.S. dollar in spite of aggressive weakening of the Japanese Yen and generally weaker Euro. The ECB rate cut earlier today did not exactly inspire confidence as the move is seen as one of desperation while the EU economy weakens. Consumer confidence is weakening globally and for good reason – simply put – business is bad, really bad. As reported above the Christmas holiday retail sales indicate that the consumer is tapped out and is likely unable to incur much more debt in the face of rising unemployment and rising geopolitical concerns. The equities markets have once again shown signs of breaking lower and therefore eliminating any view of a renewed “wealth effect”. Individual investors appear willing to avoid the stock market while focusing on debt reduction and accumulating hard assets. It appears that the lion’s share of cash thrown at the equities markets recently is mostly institutional money and in face of growing economic concerns institutional investment may be slowing. Meanwhile petroleum prices are edging higher on both war fears and low inventories. The cost of energy is slated to rise sharply putting a large dent in corporate profits and will also lighten consumers pocketbooks. Gold is certain to benefit as its safe haven status is once again reaffirmed. Many other investors are hedging their bets toward safety as the December 8th deadline approaches for Iraq to come clean on inventories of weapons of mass destruction and weapons development programs. Yesterday inspectors stumbled across artillery shells loaded with mustard gas and other possibly chemicals that could be used for development of chemical weapons. This new development has raised concerns about how truthful the Iraqis will be when they submit their documents to the United Nations.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.

[konradi]

interfax / 05.12.2002

Russia`s gold and foreign currency reserves were at $48.2 bln on November 29, up from $47.7 bln on November 22, the Central Bank said in a press release Thursday.

[ThaiGuru]

Na, das sieht ja so aus als ob die Russen bei den Goldreserven gerade auch etwas zulegen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/breaking/?show=30669

Breaking News

Randgold Resources joins FTSE gold index

Gold miner, Randgold Resources has been included in the FTSE gold mines index. Criteria for membership of the elite index, which encompasses 18 leading gold companies, include an yearly production of at least 300 000 oz.

The company, which has gold mining and exploration interests in West Africa, is listed on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

This comes after the company announced last week that it was changing its Nasdaq trading symbol from RRUS to GOLD. It had staked a claim to the sought-after symbol, then not yet available, at the time of its listing in July this year.

Randgold is incorporated in Jersey in the Channel Islands and has its primary listing on the London Stock Exchange, where its ordinary shares’ trading symbol remains RRS. The ADR code in London will now also change from RRUS.L to GOLD.L.

[ThaiGuru]

Friday, December 6, 2002 - Gold Snippet

By: Kevin Klombies, Inter-Market Relationships Analysis


http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/IMRA/1039138811.…



The chart below shows gold futures and the gold/XAU ratio. Gold is pushing up into resistance in the 325 region and if this is broken the next stop should be 340. With the gold/XAU ratio depressed after declining from May there is a good chance that the gold mining stocks would react quite strongly to gold moving above 325.

[mickym [VIP]]

Hier gibts eine weiter Nachricht, die für einen schwächeren Dollar sprechen könnte.

Vielen Dank an @africando, der diesen Artikel ausgegraben hat.

Dollar Declines as Drop in U.S. Payrolls Points to Weak Economy

aus

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…


Gruss Mic

[Sozzi]

@mickym,
danke für die Goldwerbungantwort...

[ThaiGuru]

Subj: HOWE/BOLSER REPORT STUNS GOLD/INVESTMENT WORLD!!!!!
Date: 12/5/2002 8:46:01 PM Central Standard Time
From: [e-mail]

Things are getting more interesting in the gold and silver world by the day. Reg Howe and Mike Bolser`s report (hyperlinked in today`s MIDAS commentary from Bill Murphy) is mostly over my head. What it says in English is that half of the gold that the world`s central banks say they have....they don`t have....and they`ve been lying about it for years.

Bullion banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, AIG, Bank of America, Deutschebank, Credit Suisse/First Boston have leased all this gold and sold it into the open market to support the "strong dollar policy" of the United States, by keeping the gold price down.

And, when interest rates were much higher, they could do a great interest rate arbitrage on the difference between the gold lease rate and the US Treasury bill rate, and make "free money".

Well, that ain`t working any more. The Central Banks are short 16,000 tonnes of gold that the Bullion Banks owe them, and the Bullion banks in turn are short 16,000 tonnes because they`ve sold all this Central Bank gold into the market place to keep the US$ up, and the US$ price of gold down....plus make their "free money".

16,000 tonnes is more than the entire world produces in six years.

Rob McEwen, the President of Goldcorp, decided to check out the liquidity of the physical gold market by trying to buy 40,000 ounces (1.20 tonnes) on the spot market a few months back. The bullion banks promised two day delivery. It took them more than two weeks to come up with it, and Rob had to pay a higher price than he was quoted to get it.

If the physical market is this tight for 1.2 tonnes...what are the chances the the banks (either central or bullion) will ever see any of their 16,000 tonnes of gold back? And if they do get any of it back, what price are they going to have to pay to get the last ounce they need...or get? Just asking.

Well, the truth of the matter is, that the physical is not, cannot, and never will be there to cover this short position. How this will resolve itself is unknown. But it`s a certainty that when this is all over, the price of gold is going to be much much higher than it is now.

The really incredible part of this is that as bad as it is in the gold market, the situation in silver is simply beyond the believable. You can read about it for free at www.butlerresearch.com Ted Butler is the recognized world expert regarding the silver market.

It`s a hell of a mess, and getting worse with each passing day. Maybe

"King George/"Moron" Jr." is going to try to use his imminent war with Iraq as a cover for all the upcoming economic and financial disasters. It sure wouldn`t surprise me.

If you would like more information regarding the rigging of the gold price, please contact Bill Murphy, the Chairman of GATA (The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) at [e-mail] or Chris Powell, the Secretary-Treasurer at [e-mail]

I urge all of Canada`s press corp to go after this story. Some of you have already done admirable work in this area, for which you are to be commended. But so far you`ve just found the loose end of string that keeps the ball together. If you pull on that thread much further, the whole thing will come unravelled.

As I`ve said before, and I`ll say it again. It`s the story of the century, and there`s a Pulitzer Prize in this somewhere.

Good luck.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

December 6 - Gold $325.90 up $1.40 - Silver $4.61 unchanged

O’Neill and Lindsey Resign After Reading Howe/Bolser Gold Report

You know I could not resist that headline.

Washington, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Paul O`Neill, who brought corporate and government experience to the Bush administration and an outspokenness that roiled financial markets and offended Wall Street, Congress and foreign officials, said he is resigning as U.S. Treasury Secretary.

O`Neill is the first member of President George W. Bush`s Cabinet to quit and Treasury spokeswoman Michele Davis said he will depart within a ``few weeks.`` White House chief economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey will also leave, according to the administration… -END-

Actually, I am only half kidding. Lindsey is well aware of the gold problem, as he sent me a letter after reading my Executive Summary regarding gold on May 24, 2001. That summary was sent to President Bush on his private fax from one of his boyhood friends, a state politician from Midland, Texas. Lindsey’s letter to me was postmarked the same day the fax was sent. In addition, Lindsey is a former Fed Governor, so he has the gold drill down pat.

O’Neill is responsible for running the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Therefore, he is all over the gold issue as a honcho in the Working Group on Financial Markets, a.k.a. the Plunge Protection Team.

The Howe/Bolser gold report really is checkmate for The Gold Cartel crooks.

I covered why in yesterday’s MIDAS. Surely, Lindsey and O’Neill know the jig is up. Do they want out of town before the nightmare kicks in, or have they been set up to be the scapegoats when the gold scandal becomes front-page news? It is important to keep in mind the investment community is clueless about that coming scandal. It is not factored into the financial markets in any way and will come as a shock!

Time will tell on that entire score.

Startling, that is the only way I can describe the resignations. Think about it. Three weeks ago, we have the astounding statements by Greenspan and Bernanke of our Fed. Then, the day before one of the most important weekends in US history (the Iraq/US showdown), these guys abruptly resign. The US financial system must be in complete chaos behind the scenes for all this to occur.

Today was a Battle Royale in the gold pits. As expected, the specs are pouring in to take on The Gold Cartel. Yesterday, the open interest rose 7795 contracts to 171,013 contracts. They were all over gold again today, taking gold to $328.50 when the news of the resignations hit the tape. An increasingly desperate cabal mobilized everything they had to keep gold from taking out $330. After the early $4 move, they actually had gold briefly lower on the session, but it climbed slowly back. Then as gold began taking out the offers above $327 on the close, the cabal whacked it down again. Meanwhile, the trade was a solid buyer of gold options during the session.

The gold close today was the second or third best in many years. The last time it finished at these prices, the Comex open interest was 27,000 contracts higher. There is still room for another 75,000 longs to pile in before the open interest becomes extreme and top heavy.

Next week should be something else. Gold ought to soar regardless of the cabal crooks.

I cannot overstress the importance of the Howe/Bolser gold report. It truly spells out doom for The Gold Cartel. It explains to the big money in the world why the price of gold HAS to go up many hundreds of dollars per ounce to clear the market. It is an enormous confidence builder and entices investors to get on the gold train. The coming gold price explosion is no longer IF anymore, it is WHEN!!!!

Our camp has known this for a long time, but the recent gold revelations in the Howe/Bolser report are new to most people.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW and DOG both rallied slightly on the news of the resignations. Hope springs eternal. That is about all the stock market has going for it. The employment number was a big bummer:

Washington, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unemployment rate rose in November to 6 percent, the highest in seven months, and companies eliminated jobs as the economic recovery stumbles.
The jobless rate increased more than expected from 5.7 percent in October. Payrolls fell by 40,000, the biggest decline since February, after rising a revised 6,000 in October, the Labor Department said. Manufacturers, retailers and construction companies cut jobs last month. –END-

Labor costs were up .3% AGAIN. That equates to 3.6% wage inflation with a 1.25% Fed Fund rate. We have negative interest rates in the US. That is very gold friendly.

Wall Street loves Robert Rubin and hates Paul O’Neill. I am no O’Neill fan, but he is getting a bum rap compared to Rubin. It is Rubin who gave us the gold rig, which fostered the bubble, which has led to the present economic mess and down stock market for three years in a row. Rubin was the bad one. History will show that to be the case when the gold scandal breaks.

A birdie told me that Bush might Stephen Friedman of Goldman Sachs as his new Treasury Secretary. Not one of them again!!

The dollar fell on the unemployment news to 105.75, down 75, while the euro rose to 100.89. The dollar is headed for oblivion. How can it go up much after those incredible Fed statements and the President’s own economic team is sent packing?

A Gold Eagle Post:

The real reason O,Neill resigned and one you won`t hear on TV is
(Deadeye) Dec 06, 11:14

He and the President are the only ones that have to sign off on ESF actions. Turk, Reggie Howe and others have documented how the ESF is involved over their head in the manipulation and suppression of gold prices as started under Clinton and former Sec. of Treasury Rubin.

O`Neill is simply trying to save himself from prison or a Mussoleni type lynch mob down the road. Dubya is like a deer in the headlights, unable to jump out of harm`s way.

The Golden Sextant article was the straw that broke the camel`s back. It clearly shows that the gold manipulation hole is too big and too deep to ever get out of without gold price going to the moon with a economic meltdown.

Cheers, Deadeye

Deadeye could be right. Perhaps, Lindsey and O’Neill wanted out before the proverbial "s" hits the fan.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

December 6, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled higher at $325.90 an ounce, up $1.40 an ounce from yesterday’s close. The price of gold rocketed higher this morning on the surprise resignations of Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill and White House economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey. The price had risen over $329 an ounce at one point. "O`Neill has been unable to maintain the illusion that the dollar is worthy of being the world`s reserve currency," says James Turk, of GoldMoney.com. "So he`s gone. Very bullish for gold." "All the hype about a real recovery that has fueled the recent stock market rally and underpinned an otherwise overvalued dollar is simply not materializing," says Frank Giustra, chairman of Canadian merchant banker Endeavour Financial. "The dollar is and will continue to fall. If gold breaks through $330 this go-round, we are off to the races." The equities markets were appreciative of the Treasury Secretary’s resignation. "The equity market turnaround off the lows definitely wasn`t helping the picture," said David Meger, metals analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "This doesn`t take away from my positive attitude toward the (gold) market."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $325.75 an ounce, up from $325.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. "The war of words regarding weapons inspection and the deadline for Iraq`s declaration of its inventory of weapons of mass destruction all hang over the gold market at the moment," John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Warburg said. "The Iraq issue in particular (is) keeping gold bid," he said." "I think that the market is fundamentally steady," said one London bullion trader. "The people who count in the gold market are long and they will not want it to go down and I don`t see what will make it go down with all this other stuff going on. The Iraqi government said it would release an arms disclosure statement on Saturday. That could determine whether the United States launches a war or not. "Gold`s waiting for developments in the Middle East and keeping an eye on moves in the currencies," another trader said. "As we head into a weekend that will see Iraq declare its arsenal of weapons, dealers will be unwilling to hold short positions and gold does seem ideally positioned to penetrate key resistance located at $325.00," Standard Bank London said in a report. Stephen Briggs, commodities analyst at SG, said gold was already firming before O`Neill`s resignation, as stock markets have lost momentum. In addition, Briggs said there`s some safe haven flows associated with Iraq`s weapons declaration on Sunday. "Nobody wants to be short," he said. Lawrence Eagles, analyst at GNI, said the weak dollar and the cut in euro zone interest rates yesterday provided additional support.

Earlier spot gold closed at $324.15 an ounce Friday in Hong Kong, up $2.40 from Thursday`s close of $321.75. Gold was supported on the weaker Yen against the U.S. dollar as investors bought back into the safe haven instrument. Also war fears continue to linger. "With the weekend coming up and the deadline for Iraq, people just don`t want to be short," said Greg Fan, senior dealer at NM Rothschild & Sons in Hong Kong. "If we don`t see any military action next week, we could have this situation every Friday," Fan said. "The biggest factor was the yen-dollar breaking through 125, putting people in a buying mood," a brokerage analyst said. "We saw fresh buying by individual investors." Some Asian speculators bet wrong on gold and were forced to cover positions leading to further strength for the metal. "A couple of traders playing the Sydney market and they were caught short, said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Tokyo. "They probably expected that the Japanese would be sellers today so they were caught short," Cheung said.

The unsteady U.S economy, the war on terrorism, talk of war against Iraq and dropping worldwide production of the precious metal all show signs that gold prices are beginning to rebound, said Doug Silver, president of Balfour Holdings Inc., an Englewood, Colo., minerals consulting company. Silver spoke to the Northwest Mining Association, where about 1,000 mining industry delegates are meeting here for their 108th annual convention. "All these different scenarios keep getting you back to gold, "Silver said in an industry outlook presentation. Lack of confidence in the U.S. economy, after accounting scandals rocked the stock market, could send investors after gold, he said. "When people are uncomfortable, they go to what is comfortable, "he said, noting that gold funds have been some of the best performers on the market. Fears over war in the Middle East and deficit spending on the war on terrorism could weaken the U.S. dollar, further raising interest in gold, Silver said. Worldwide demand for gold has been growing at 2 percent to 3 percent a year, while production has stayed the same or declined, he said. This shortfall of supply could serve to ignite demand, bringing industrial investors into the gold camp, Silver said. Mining companies are shifting their emphasis from large, open-pit mines to exploration for pockets of high-grade underground deposits, Silver said. "The decline in exploration discoveries has nothing to do with the U.S. being picked over, "Silver said. "It has everything to do with the fact that nobody has been exploring."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The Bush administration set the stage Thursday for making its case for U.N. Security Council action against Saddam Hussein, contending it has solid evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. The White House would not say what its evidence might be. Saddam said in Baghdad that Iraq wants to disprove the U.S. allegations, though he did not explicitly deny having chemical, biological and nuclear weapons or a program to develop long-range missiles.

Israeli troops backed by tanks and helicopters swept into Gaza Strip`s Bureij refugee camp Friday, provoking a gun battle and killing 10 people, Palestinian witnesses and medics said. The army said the troops met fierce resistance in the three-hour incursion, which it said was intended to root out militants responsible for attacks on troops in Gaza in a more than two-year-old Palestinian uprising for independence. Palestinian residents said at least three people were killed by a missile fired from a helicopter gunship. They said armed men fought the troops but that seven of the nine men and the one woman killed were civilians.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill on Friday abruptly announced his resignation, ending a two-year tenure marred by public gaffes and criticisms of his ability to be the U.S. economy`s chief spokesman. An administration official said O`Neill`s resignation had come at the request of the White House, which has been considering a major shakeup in its economic team. "It has been a privilege to serve the Nation during these challenging times. I thank you for that opportunity," O`Neill said in a brief letter to President Bush. Treasury spokeswoman Michele Davis told reporters that the resignation would become effective "in the next few weeks," adding that O`Neill had informed senior Treasury staffers of his decision on Friday morning.

White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey has submitted his resignation, a senior White House official said on Friday shortly after the planned resignation of Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill was announced. "Larry Lindsey has submitted his resignation to the president to pursue endeavors outside the government," the senior official said.

The US unemployment rate returned to a seven-year high last month as the US lost a surprising number of jobs, according to an official report released on Friday. The U.S. unemployment rate shot up to 6 percent in November and employers hacked their payrolls by the largest amount since February, the government said on Friday in a report that offered troubling news about the economic recovery. The jobless rate hit its highest level since April, according to the Labor Department. The rate vaulted three-tenths of a percentage point from October`s 5.7 percent. Private economists had been braced for an increase in that rate to only 5.8 percent. The number of workers on U.S. payrolls outside the farm sector tumbled by 40,000 workers last month, a worrisome showing compared to the 38,000 gain projected by U.S. economists in a Reuters survey.


Comment: The big news today is the surprise joint resignation of Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill and White House economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey. The price of gold predictably moved solidly higher triggering stops along the way. My take is that the resignations were in fact house cleaning and a possible abandonment of the “strong dollar policy” put in place by the Clinton administration in 1996 under then Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. It is rumored that the Bush administration is looking for replacements who will favor desired tax cut policies. Also in news that adversely affected the sudden and sharp rise in the price of gold, it became apparent that certain banks and fund were selling into the run up in gold capping outsized gains.

However, more disturbing and under the radar are rumors from my sources that today there were forward gold sales by a South African gold producer as the price moved higher. This is not surprising that mega-hedgers would be desperate enough to sell into a rising gold price in order to slow gold’s advance on a weakening U.S. dollar and geopolitical concerns. A broker friend told me off the record this morning that he believes the gold producer in question is AngloGold. He also said that others also believe that AngloGold’s hedgebook is deep under water and that the higher gold prices have been crippling. It is well known that rising gold prices have led to financial difficulties for hedged producers in the past, most notably Ashanti Gold and Cambior. It just could be that there was a real fear that higher gold prices could have been extremely harmful to the company. Personally I find this quite surprising as hedgebook reduction has been a pillar of support for gold in recent months. I would think that mega-hedgers would be doing all in their power to extricate themselves from the “hedge” trap during the inevitable run up in gold prices. It is also rumored that some institutional selling (banks and funds) came into the market just as the price made a “run for it” at one point when spot gold punched through above $329 an ounce this morning. This appears to be a coordinated effort as it all occurred on cue and was not viewed as “staggered” as would normally be the case among several selling institutions at differing price targets.

Regardless, gold has proven to be quite resilient and the pressure is on as the U.S. dollar weakens and is likely to weaken much further. Also, the outlook for war is even greater given the Bush administration has stated they have “solid proof” of Iraqi violations of the U.N. resolutions regarding weapons of mass destruction and banned weapons development programs. Iraq has delivered documents and stated that they do not have such weapons or weapons programs. It will take a few weeks to filter through the estimated 13,000 pages of documents, but it is apparent that war is inevitable at this point. The military build is continuing with yesterday’s naval battle group led by the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Harry Truman heading toward the Persian Gulf, B-2 bomber and B-52 bomber contingents headed for Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, troop buildups in Turkey, Saudi, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain. Troops have been in training in various war games including urban warfare. This week 10,000 national guardsmen have been called to active duty with many more announced call-ups of national guard and reserve troops in coming weeks.

The U.S. economy has come under severe stress as unemployment hit 7 year highs on a weakening economy. This will get much worse as worried tapped out consumers have decided not to go deeper in debt and cut back on spending. Considering that consumer spending is responsible for two thirds of the U.S. economy it looks as if there are more serious problems coming down the line. Corporate spending has already come to a standstill with few companies planning to make further corporate expenditures in the near term. Debt across the board is at all time record levels. This includes consumer, corporate and government debt. There simply is no possible way to pay off this debt. The only alternatives are more bankruptcies (already at an all time record high) and rampant inflation (also a boost for precious metals). Given all the economy has going against it prudent investors are likely to seek out safe wealth preservation vehicles such as precious metals. The selling down of gold by institutional players gives individuals an opportunity to enter into an accumulation phase at relative bargain prices. These are indeed“Interesting Times”.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Zum Nachdenken:

Eine in Österreich aufgelegte Silbergendenkmünze mit einem Nennwert von € 10,-- hat nach Auskunft der "Münze Österreich" (www.austrian-mint.com/website/euro-sonder/silbergedenk/ambra…) einen Feinsilbergehalt von 16g. Das entspricht etwa einer 1/2 Unze.

Auf der Seite 213.164.6.158/Oegussa/www/Homepage/gold.asp der ÖGUSSA (Österreichische Gold- und Silberscheideanstalt) erfahre ich, dass ein Feinsilberbarren von 1000g am 6.12.2002 € 202,96 kostet. Gut!

Nun rechne ich: Wenn ich 20 Silbergedenkmünzen á € 10,-- nehme, noch € 2,96 drauflege, dann kann ich mir bei der ÖGUSSA einen 1000g-Feinsilberbarren darum kaufen. (Exkl. 20% Umsatzsteuer, aber die fällt bei diesen Relationen nicht wirklich ins Gewicht.)

Ich rechne weiter: Meine 20 Silbermünzen haben einen Feingehalt von insgesamt 320g Silber (16g x 20 Münzen).

Konklusio: Ich habe also 320g Silber gegen 1000g Silber eingetauscht! Und eigentlich kann ich gleich ohne den Umweg über die Silbergedenkmünzen um 20 papierene Zehner und ein paar Zerquetschte diesen Tausch durchführen!

Nun die Frage: Ist das ein gutes Geschäft gewesen?Und wenn ja, warum machen das dann nicht mehr?


(Eckdaten: Auf www.kitco.com sehe ich einen Silberpreis von $ 4,61/Unze am 6.12.2002. Das entspricht aktuell etwa € 4,57/Unze.)

[ThaiGuru]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger

Ja warum machen das denn nicht mehr Leute?

Die meisten Leute warten halt lieber ab, bis die ganze Welt kauft, und bezahlen dann die viel höheren Preise.
Von abwarten, und kein Risiko eingehen ist vielfach die Rede, das ist zumeist auch richtig. Doch bei den physischen Edelmetallen, meiner Ansicht nach, bestimmt nicht.

Dein Beispiel mit den 20 Papier *Fiat* Euro Zehner, gegen 1000 Gramm reines Silber von Oegussa, ist ganz sicher ein gutes Geschäft, Da man aus 1000 Gramm Silber ja theoretisch selber über 62 mal 16 Gramm Silber Münzen herstellen könnte, und der Silberpreis zur Zeit immer noch eher ein Witz ist, als ein Preis.

Nur der Vergleich mit der 10.- Euro Gedenkmünze funktioniert leider nicht mehr so richtig, da die ganze Auflage dieser Silbermünze bereits vergriffen ist, und jetzt nur noch über die Händler für ca. 20.- Euro pro Münze gekauft werden kann. http://www.muenzenladen.de/euro_silber.htm

Deine beiden Links funktionierten leider nicht, darum hier nochmals:

http://213.164.6.158/Oegussa/www/Homepage/gold.asp
.
http:www.austrian-mint.com/website/euro-sonder/silbergedenk/…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday Dec 6 2002

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.47, PM 44c, with world gold at $324.60 and $325.30. Below legal import point. The normal reaction to a price spike.

TOCOM presents a somewhat confusing picture. Reuters quotes a brokerage analyst as saying "We saw fresh buying by individual speculators" and UBS Warburg speaks of "surprise buying by the General Public traders". Volume did rise to the highest for many weeks, up 30% over yesterday to the equivalent of 49,622 Comex lots. The active contract closed up 11 yen, a level not seen since early June, and $US gold rose by $1.40 above NY. But open interest fell the equivalent of 2,686 Comex contracts. A complex day; but perhaps bearing in mind that gold did rise on the TOCOM open, generally attributed to shorts operating out of Australia being squeezed, and that the media there carries several stories about Japanese Government liking a yen decline, one may conclude that active support for the gold price by the TOCOM general public is starting. (NY yesterday traded 37,921 lots and open interest rose 7,795 contracts.)

Bianco Research’s "Newsclips" collection of key news stories picks up the Reg Howe article:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

mentioned yesterday. This is certainly appropriate: it is imperative reading for any serious student of the gold market: but it is interesting to see a service with institutional and orthodox credentials citing it.

Andy Smith has now read the notorious Bernanke speech

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/200211…

and has also noticed a curious aspect:

"That he used gold stories/metaphors three times to hammer home his message is one of the first non-token tributes to bullion by a central banker since, it seems, Macaulay was a [precocious] boy. [Bernanke cited William Jennings Bryan’s championing reflation after the US’s post-Civil War return to the Gold Standard; used the parable of alchemy producing unlimited amounts of gold – raising all prices in terms of gold - to illustrate the efficacy of printing presses; and reminisced, if not quite fondly, Roosevelt’s 40% devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1934]."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Blecheuro]

Das war schon immer so, die Leute sind erst dann bereit zu kaufen, wenn der Preis oben ist. Siehe NM!!! Dann werden wir verkaufen und umschichten, aber nicht in den Blecheuro!

[Gringo1]

Guter Artikel, der bedeutet: immer mehr Leute werden sich ihren Wohlstand mit ein wenig Gold absichern, siehe Japan

Die Goldene Rezession
Gastkommentar
von Matthias Horx


M. Horx ist Leiter des Zukunftsinstitut mit Sitz in Wien.


Im Monat der Lichter zählt jeder Kassenbon: Kaufen gegen die Krise, Konsumieren für den Aufschwung! Doch der Konsument, das sonst willfährige Wesen, verweigert die Kreditkarte. Noch ein Indiz dafür, dass von allen wirtschaftlichen Szenarien für die kommenden Jahre die Goldene Rezession die wahrscheinlichste ist. Charakteristisch für dieses Phänomen ist:
a) die Konjunkturkurve zeigt eine mehr oder minder holperige Dauerlinie zwischen minus und plus einem Prozent,
b) alle jammern über diesen Zustand. Und alle richten sich komfortabel darin ein.
Eine ketzerische Frage: Ist das eigentlich schlecht?
In Japan herrschen seit einem Jahrzehnt Bankenkrise, Filz und Deflation. Aber wer in Tokio auf den Straßen flaniert, erlebt ein leuchtendes Wirtschaftswunderparadies. Luxusgüter werden an jeder Ecke inszeniert, die jungen Frauen sind erotischer gekleidet denn je. Die Preise sinken unaufhörlich, jeder Einkommensverlust wird kompensiert. Entstanden ist eine sarkastische, hoch kreative, zu virtuellen Spielen neigende Kultur. In Japans 30 Fernsehsendern laufen rund um die Uhr Karaoke-Brüllorgien und Sahnetortenattacken auf nackte Hintern. Das erinnert stark an den Dieter-Bohlen-Kult.
Oder die Schweiz: Seit einem guten Dezennium befindet sich unser Nachbar in einer vergoldeten Stagnation. Die Sparzinsen liegen bei höchstens 0,5 Prozent, das BSP-Wachstum ist nicht der Rede wert. Und die Schweizer? Sind ein bisschen verunsichert und diskutieren über das Verhältnis zu Europa – wie seit zwei Jahrhunderten. Das „grounding“ macht zu schaffen, der Verlust der stolzen Swissair. Aber schon fliegt die neue Airline, deren Logo vom Londoner Designer Tyler Brûlé so supercool gestaltet wurde, dass der Unterschied zu vorher gar nicht auffällt. Niemand würde bestreiten, dass es sich in der Schweiz gut leben lässt, und zwar materiell und kulturell und sozial.
Goldene Rezession ist jenes Reifestadium, in das satte Gesellschaften eintreten, wenn in ihnen die dynamischen Kräfte der sozialen Unterschiede erlahmen. Man neigt dazu, das Erreichte zu sichern. Man vermeidet hungrige Zuwanderer, störende Kinder, ökonomische Unwägbarkeiten. Man spart, baut ab, rationalisiert, schützt die Latifundien. So entsteht inmitten unermüdlicher (und chronisch vergeblicher) Reformversuche des Staates ein austariertes Netzwerk aus Interessenvertretern, Transfergewinnern und Nischenbewohnern.
Noch einmal: Ist das eigentlich schlecht? Hat eine demokratische Gesellschaft nicht das Recht, so zu leben – in wohlanständiger Stagnation mit eingebautem Klagemodus? Was wäre, wenn die Goldene Rezession kein Ausrutscher, keine Krise oder Phase, sondern die Zielgerade unserer ökonomischen Mentalität wäre? Ihre Wohlstandswellness schmeckt uns ungleich besser als die revolutionäre Aufgeregtheit der New Economy. Sie erspart uns das Gewusel einer globalen, offenen Konkurrenzgesellschaft mit ihren fiebrigen Märkten und ihrer hektischen upward mobility.

Südkorea wächst um sechs Prozent im Jahr. Von den alten Konglomeraten mit ihren Postenhierarchien und Verbeugungsritualen ist kaum ein Stein geblieben. Die Großstädte sind eine brodelnde Mixtur aus Tradition und Moderne. Philippinische „maids“ bieten Haushaltsdienste an jeder Ecke an, damit diejenigen, die durch extreme Bildungsanstrengungen auf den steilen Pfad nach oben kamen, bis zum Exzess arbeiten können. Minoritäten werden erst schamlos ausgebeutet und dann, wenn sie sich eine Nische erobert haben, integriert – nicht selten werden sie zur neuen dominanten Mittelschicht. Die Spielregeln sind ruppig, bisweilen grausam.

China vollzieht den heiklen, brachialen Übergang vom agrarischen Zeitalter direkt in die postindustrielle Moderne. Mexiko verringert seine Armutsquote jedes Jahr um zwei Prozent. Indien ist nur noch in den nordöstlichen Landesteilen ein Hungerstaat – 250 Millionen Mittelschichtangehörige bilden den größten ungesättigten Konsummarkt der Welt, und jedes Jahr verlassen 100 000 Ingenieure und Computertechniker die erstklassigen Universitäten. Ägypten, auch ein Wachstumsgigant, wächst aus der turbulenten Dynamik seiner Großstädte heraus, aus Kleinhandel, unendlicher Emsigkeit und dem Hunger der Habenichtse.
Wie lange unser goldenes Modell gut gehen kann? Lange. Wir haben Reserven. Solange wir im Abendrot des europäischen Kapitalismus verharren, haben andere eine Chance. Vielleicht sind wir in 20 Jahren die verlängerte Werkbank von Malaysia–Korea. Und die Alpen werden zum gemütlichen Themenpark – als Altersheim für wohlhabende Chinesen.
Wer die globale Gerechtigkeit befürwortet – und wer täte das nicht? –, wie könnte der dagegen sein?

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/InternationalForecaster…

International Forecaster December, 2002 (#1) - Precious Metals + Extra

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



GOLD, SILVER, PLTINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

The Prudent Bear Fund is rated number three year-to-date up 52.72% and for the last 12 months up 53.26%. It is rated number one for the past three years up 26.06%. As you can see David Tice has amassed a phenomenal record. We recommend his fund. If you like to purchase the Prudent Bear or Safe Harbor Fund, call Rich Radez at 800-285-1700.

You have to be demented or a psychotic to be a Barrick shareholder. Deutsche Bank just downgraded the stock from buy to sell. The analyst, Mr. Peter Rose, sees the stock falling 14% over the next six months. If you are a seller, the better alternatives are *Agnico-Eagle (AEM-NYSE), *Goldcorp (GG-NYSE) and *Crystallex (KRY-ASE). He also cut Barrick’s earnings forecast by 26% for 2003. Wait until gold hits $500.00 an ounce and Barrick gets slaughtered in their hedges. It will be worse than that. The company’s exploration and office expenses purportedly were higher than expected. Mr. Rose expects a prolonged weakness in the share price and he anticipates that disenchantment will be the order of the day.

Gold producers repurchased 255 tons of gold in the first half of the year, leaving 2,800 tons on their hedge books. At that rate they’ll be flat in 10 years. Not much of an accomplishment considering the problems they face. This makes for a strong floor under gold, but better yet it means lower prices remain a distant improbability. We ask, where else can you find fundamentals like this? Even better yet, there’s a shortfall of 300 tons or more. We believe the central banks have sold or leased most of their gold to keep their fiat money system going and soon their game will be over. We can only conclude that the upward march of gold has just begun and for the 5% of the astute, who have the intellect to escape from denial, their journey will be immensely profitable. We have central bank dummies like the Bundesbank telling us they may sell more gold to buy more profitable assets. They do this periodically to show us how stupid they are. Gold has been going up for two years. The most outstanding asset. Gold and silver shares have made massive gains, the market heads lower; bond yields have peaked out or are close to doing so, thus we ask, which are more profitable assets? Of course there are none. They are manipulators about to be swept out with the tide. They have no idea of the purge that awaits them. The rest of the world buys gold as America sleeps. The socialist/Marxist goals of the South African government and its affects upon the mining industry are taking their toll, and we are now beginning to see the effects in spades. Mining production will continue to deteriorate over the coming years and this will be profoundly bullish for gold, platinum and palladium markets.

Namibia, formerly South West Africa, is demanding renegotiation of an exclusive diamond buying agreement with DeBeers to supply local diamonds to a fledgling polishing industry. This comes long before the agreement expires in three years. Needless to say, DeBeers isn’t very happy.

HR 1161 is a bailout for those buried in derivatives. The new law would make the netting of profit and loss zero balance in a transaction in case of financial failure of the grantor. It would sanitize derivatives. Supposedly the proposal is to reduce systemic risk through settlement programs in an unregulated market. The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, also known as the “Plunge Protection Team”, would render recommendations. The group has been manipulating our financial markets for the greater good of our elitist cabal. Players are Chairman of the FED, President of the New York FED, Chairman of the SEC and CFTC and the Secretary of the Treasury. This bill would give these foxes the run of the hen house and give them the legal ability to slaughter at will. This Financial Contract Netting Improvement Act of 1999 would supposedly strengthen the provisions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act and bankruptcy laws that protect the enforceability of contractual rights to terminate and close out certain capital markets transactions, net the amounts payable by each party, and foreclose on any collateral. Thus, again through cooking the books, the entire derivatives fiasco could be neutralized allowing the players to escape the penalty of their errors. We have heard it said if the bill weren’t passed the financial system would collapse. That may be true, but all those crooks would be let off the hook. These people need to be confronted and made to pay for their ignoble activities. If they are not forced to pay they will go right on manipulating our markets and controlling our lives We believe you all should contact your elected representatives and tell them you are against this bailout bill. If you don’t you commit yourself to financial servitude. It’s about time we all bit the financial bullet and allowed the system to be purged of its evils and the financial monopoly that controls it. We see the plunge protection team manipulating the market everyday and we see its gold manipulation cartel at work 24 hours a day. If you want more of this do nothing. If you want to stop these criminals once and for all, go to your representatives. Remember once absolved of what they’ve done they’ll be back doing it again in nothing flat. This may be the only opportunity we’ll ever have to take these people down, let’s not let it slip through our fingers. (Note: The above paragraph is repeated in the US section).

A precious metals analyst at a major brokerage house loves Newmont and Barrick and naturally dismisses Bill Murphy and GATA. We believe he’s not totally out of it because he says JP Morgan’s derivatives scare him, although he knows the people there and believes they are very smart. This is so very typical. This analyst is not the enemy; he’s just intellectually dishonest and wants to be accepted. He still will not understand what happened to him when he is out on the street.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/SwissinfoSpecial.html?siteSect=…

Sonntag 08.12.2002

Chàvez kündigt «Schlacht um Öl» in Venezuela an

CARACAS - Der durch einen landesweiten Streik unter innenpolitischen Druck geratene venezolanische Präsident Hugo Chàvez hat seine Gegner scharf angegriffen. Er kündigte ein Durchgreifen beim staatlichen Erdöl-Unternehmen an.

Vor einer riesigen Menschenmenge vor dem Präsidentenpalast bezeichnete Chàvez die Opposition als «umstürzlerisch, blutdurstig und irrational». Vor seinen jubelnden Anhängern kündigte der Präsident an, streikende Tanker-Kapitäne des staatlichen Öl-Unternehmens PDVSA zu entlassen und Vorstands-Mitglieder auszuwechseln.
Er werde nicht zulassen, dass die Arbeit des Unternehmens wegen der seit sechs Tagen andauernden Streiks zum Stillstand komme, sagte Chàvez. Die Streikenden und die Opposition fordern den Rücktritt von Chàvez, den sie einen Diktator nennen und ihm vorwerfen, ein kommunistisches System wie auf Kuba errichten zu wollen.

Die Zeit sei gekommen, um die grosse Ölschlacht in Venezuela zu schlagen, sagte Chàvez. Wenige Stunden zuvor hatten Soldaten einen staatlichen Öltanker besetzt, dessen Kapitän sich den Streiks angeschlossen hatte. Tags zuvor wurden bei Schüssen auf Demonstranten in Caracas drei Menschen getötet und etliche verletzt.

Nach Angaben von Oppositions-Anhängern musste Venezuela wegen des Streiks seine Ölproduktion bereits um 50 Prozent herunterfahren. Die Restproduktion werde innerhalb von drei Tagen eingestellt. Venezuela ist der fünftgrösste Öl-Exporteur der Welt.

Die jetzigen Demonstrationen entzündeten sich an einem Protest von Militärangehörigen, die ihren Dienst verweigerten. Während eines Putschversuches hochrangiger Armeeangehöriger gegen Chàvez im April hatte sich das Militär loyal zum Präsidenten verhalten. 080400 dec


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/SwissinfoSpecial.html?siteSect=…

Sonntag 08.12.2002, MEZ 09:41



Die marode United Airlines hält Krisentreffen ab

CHICAGO - Der Verwaltungsrat der vor der Pleite stehenden US-Fluggesellschaft United Airlines hat in Chicago ein Krisentreffen abgehalten.

Wie die Leitung der weltweit zweitgrössten Fluggesellschaft mitteilte, soll über das Ergebnis des Treffens vorerst nichts bekannt gegeben werden. Experten schlossen nicht aus, dass es bereits am Sonntag einen Konkursantrag geben könnte.

Die US-Regierung hatte am Mittwoch Kreditgarantien über zwei Milliarden Dollar abgelehnt. Das Unternehmen braucht dringend Finanzhilfe, um in der nächsten Woche fällige Kredite in Höhe von 920 Mio. Dollar zu begleichen.
Am Freitag hatte UAL-Chef Glenn Tilton mitgeteilt, ein Antrag auf Gläubigerschutz werde immer wahrscheinlicher. Das Unternehmen habe sich auf diese Möglichkeit seit Monaten eingestellt und werde sie wählen, wenn sich zeige, dass dies der beste Weg für UAL sei.

Das «Wall Street Journal» berichtete am Samstag, United Airlines stehe kurz vor einer Einigung mit Gläubigerbanken über eine Fiananzierung in Höhe von 1,5 Mrd. Dollar für ein Konkursverfahren. Gemäss Kapitel Elf des US-Konkursrechts könnte die Fluggesellschaft Konkurs anmelden und weiterfliegen, indem sie gleichzeitig die Sanierung des Unternehmens betreibt. 080927 dec


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.tribnet.com/business/story/2288581p-2349234c.html



U.S. mining industry experiencing economic boom

Nicholas K. Geranios; The Associated Press

From left, Fern Boisvenu, president of F. Boisvenu Drilling, Ltd., talks with Jeff St. Jean and Kevin Decker at the annual meeting of the Northwest Mining Association in Spokane Thursday.


SPOKANE - Terrorist threats and political instability in some parts of the world are fueling an unlikely economic boom in the nation`s mining camps.

Gold prices are rising, partly as a result of uncertainties caused by terrorists, and that is re-energizing the moribund mining industry in the West.


Nevada, which accounts for 76 percent of U.S. gold production, is in the midst of "the biggest gold-mining boom in American history," according to a report from the Nevada Bureau of Mines.


"We`ve been excited now for half a year, since gold prices began going up," said Steven D. Craig, vice president of Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc., of Reno, Nev. "It`s been a long drought for those of us who are left."


After a long series of bankruptcies and mergers, "the people left are the true survivors of the industry," Craig said this week at the annual convention of the Northwest Mining Association.


Gold prices rose this year from $270 an ounce to settle around $320, Craig said. Silver prices average $4.52 per ounce.


Among the companies benefiting most from the rebound is 111-year-old Hecla Mining Co., of Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, which as recently as two years ago was struggling for survival.


Hecla`s stock has been one of the top performers on the New York Stock Exchange this year, as the company focuses on low-cost production of gold and silver from mines in the United States, Mexico and Venezuela.


The share price of around 50 cents two years ago was at $3.96 this week, one of the biggest turnarounds in the past year among NYSE companies, president Phil Baker said Wednesday.


Hecla has about 700 employees, 35 of them at headquarters in Coeur d`Alene, Baker said.


The company expects this year to produce 235,000 ounces of gold at an average cost of $140 per ounce and 8.2 million ounces of silver at less than $2.30 per ounce, Baker said. At current prices, that leaves plenty of profit.


While mines in developing and Third World nations may be cheaper to operate, social unrest and anti-Western attitudes, especially in Muslim countries, make for a difficult business climate, executives told the convention.


The rise in gold prices means more profits that can be pumped into exploration and development of mines, and more attention from investors seeking to escape the stock market, Craig said.


Copper prices also are starting to rise, indicating a general economic rebound because copper is used in homes, cars and electrical transmission, Craig said.


"This is really the early stages of a new cycle in exploration and mining," Craig said. "It`s going to be a growth cycle."


Other North American mining and exploration companies reporting increased activity include:


•Constellation Copper Corp., of Denver, developer of the Lisbon Valley Project in Utah.


The Lisbon Valley mine has been permitted and is expected to produce more than 50 million pounds of copper per year starting in 2004. The company also is pursuing a mine project in Chihuahua, Mexico, that is expected to produce 40 million pounds of copper and 60 million pounds of zinc per year.


•Coeur, The Precious Metals Co., based in Coeur d`Alene, has gold and silver mines in Idaho, Nevada, Alaska, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. It is the nation`s largest silver producer.


The company now generates positive cash flow, and expects to produce a record 15 million ounces of silver this year, up 40 percent from 2001, the company said. Coeur, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, has cut its outstanding debt in half, he said.


•NovaGold Resources Inc., of Los Gatos, Calif., is developing one of the world`s largest gold mines at Donlin Creek, Alaska. The mine has an estimated capacity of 23 million ounces of gold.


•Nevada Pacific Gold Ltd., an exploration company in Reno, Nev., is studying 10 different projects in Nevada, covering 100 square miles of mineral rights.


(Published 12:30AM, December 8th, 2002)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/MarketWise/10393…

Sunday, December 08, 2002

Running With the News + Gold & More Trading Notes

By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box



Prescient as always, the stock market saw Treasury Secretary O’Neill’s resignation for what it was: an instant boon to investors and balm for the beleaguered taxpayer. Small wonder, then, that the Dow Industrials took the news and ran with it, surging 120 points in a matter of minutes after having started the day on a dismal note. Whoaaaa! Let’s back up and try that again. In reality, this line of thinking is such rubbish that only someone like Larry Kudlow, CNBC’s spurious answer to John Madden, could have voiced it -- did voice it, actually, during the CNBC segment that passes each day for enlightened on-camera dialogue between Kudlow and the always voluble James Cramer. Now, there is no point in pretending that either Kudlow or Cramer is lacking in intelligence, although both seem to turn stridently stupid whenever the microphones are switched on. Let’s just say they know who butters their bread and, in order to remain in the public eye, that it will always behoove them to emphasize good news over bad, and to find the silver lining no matter how dark the cloud.

Strictly speaking, O’Neill’s resignation is neither good news nor bad, since nothing of significance that has happened to the economy since he took office could be attributed to him; nor could any conceivable successor – the estimable Robert Rubin included – all by himself turn the economy around. So why, if Kudlow is as laughably wrong as always, did stocks take off on the news, which also included the resignation of Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey? Plain and simple, the stock market is under such deft distribution these days that any news short of a nuclear blast in New York City can be, and invariably will be, spun as bullish and used to squeeze shares higher. The effect is similar to something we witness occasionally in the concert hall or at the theatre. A newly minted Juilliard grad does a too-clever take on Beethoven that sounds like it was transcribed by a hip-hop artist. But before the audience can summon a proper measure of revulsion for such tripe, a shill in the audience yells "Bravo!" and rises to his feet, clapping and cheering like someone who has just experienced a musical apotheosis. And so it goes on Wall Street. Before investors can begin to parse the news, the program traders flip their "buy" switches, steam-rollering anyone so foolish as to wonder what O’Neill’s resignation might actually portend. Cramer and Kudlow are part of the chain reaction, but the spin they put on it is by then superfluous, since the stock market has already "interpreted" it with a manifestly irresistible and seemingly bullish surge. That is how the game works, but woe to anyone so foolish as to think O’Neill’s resignation warrants holding stocks at their headline-reactive prices over the weekend. And speaking of the weekend, here’s your reading assignment, another gem from Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach, the deflationist’s deflationist these days:

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20021206-fri.ht…

Gold Futures

FEB GOLD (327.10): September’s 330.00 high repelled the futures on the first try, but they’ll be banging on it again today if non-bullion stocks are flaccid or weak. The target -- a high-confidence number, as far as we’re concerned -- is a minimum 337.10

Ganzer Beitrag:
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/MarketWise/10393…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Sonntag 08.12.2002, MEZ 21:37

Irak räumt Arbeit an Atombombe ein

BAGDAD - Irak hat eingeräumt, am Bau von Atombomben gearbeitet zu haben. Vor Beginn der UNO-Abrüstungsmission 1991 sei das Nuklear-Programm aber noch nicht reif für einen Test gewesen, sagte der Präsidentenberater in Wissenschaftsfragen, Amer el Saadi.

Auf die Frage nach dem genauen Stand der Entwicklung wollte El Saadi nicht antworten. Das sei die Aufgabe internationaler Experten, sagte der Präsidentenberater. Nach US-Angaben wäre Bagdad binnen eines Jahres zum Bau der Atombombe fähig gewesen, wenn nicht nach dem Golfkrieg vor elf Jahren die Entwaffnung des Landes beschlossen worden wäre.

El Saadi bekräftigte, Irak verfüge über keine verbotenen Waffensysteme. Er drängte die USA und Grossbritannien, die das Gegenteil behaupten, Beweise vorzulegen.
Das Weisse Haus hatte in den vergangenen Tagen dagegen bereits mehrfach klargemacht, dass es die Beweislast bei Irak sieht. Für die Entwicklung verbotener Waffen in Irak liegen den Geheimdiensten nach Darstellung Washingtons und Londons eindeutige Beweise vor.

Die von der Regierung in Bagdad vorgelegte Dokumentation über die irakischen Waffenprogramme ist inzwischen in Wien bei der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEA) eingetroffen.

Dort sollen die Unterlagen zum Atomwaffenprogramm gesichtet werden. Die irakischen Angaben zu den biologischen und chemischen Waffenprogrammen sowie zur Raketenproduktion sollen bei der UNO-Waffenkontrollkommission UNMOVIC in New York geprüft werden. Die Analyse des rund 12 000 Seiten umfassenden Berichts wird möglicherweise mehrere Wochen dauern.
Unterdessen setzten die Waffeninspekteure der Vereinten Nationen ihre Kontrollen in Irak fort. Gefolgt von Journalisten und Kamerateams verliessen die Abrüstungs-Experten am frühen Morgen ihr Hauptquartier in einem Hotel von Bagdad. 082053 dec


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://english.pravda.ru/columnists/2002/11/26/39994.html

Beijing waiting for U.S.-Iraq war?

Military analysts say China could be waiting for the United States to commit much of its remaining military forces to an attack against Iraq before launching an invasion against Taiwan.

"Should the Iraqi war turn sour – if, for instance, Saddam pulls his most loyal troops into Iraq`s cities to force a drawn-out, street-to-street fight – the U.S. might be forced to pour additional troops into the battle," said Bryan Preston, a writer and television producer, in the Aug. 20 issue of The National Review Online. "For China, our difficulty would be a golden opportunity to take on Taiwan, provided it could be sure the Bush administration`s nuclear threat was a bluff," he said. "What would China do?"

Tom Knowlton, a military analyst writing for Internet-based publication Defense Watch, which is published by Soldiers For The Truth, a group founded by decorated veteran, author and columnist David Hackworth – also says there is at least substantial anecdotal evidence China may be planning such a move – enough that it should give U.S. military planners and the Bush administration pause.

"There are strong indications that China is preparing to capitalize on the growing American military commitments in the Middle East by invading the island nation of Taiwan," writes Knowlton in this week`s issue.

For one, he says, southeast Asian experts Stephen Young and Arthur Weldon "have characterized China`s post-9-11 strategy as a `radical departure` from their historical diplomatic pattern and indicative of a `policy of intervention and naval adventurism seeking the subservience of mainland Southeast Asia to Chinese national need.`"
And, says Knowlton, even the Pentagon`s analysts "have likewise expressed concern at the apparent refocusing of Chinese military doctrine to a strategy of `pre-emptive and surprise attacks.`"
Finally, Knowlton points out, China has been engaged in modernizing and upgrading its military for a number of years, including high-tech jet fighters, naval vessels and ballistic missiles.

Such weapons would give Beijing a great deal of power, especially if combined into a massive surprise attack. That would fit into current strategy, and it could be accomplished before the U.S. has a chance to defeat Iraq`s forces, which shouldn`t take long, military analysts predict.

Preston believes the Bush administration is aware of China`s emerging threat and that Beijing could take advantage of its numerical superiority over Taiwan, should the U.S. military get bogged down in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.

"While officially recognizing the mainland as the `One China,` we are sworn to defend Taiwan should China attack," said Preston. "We also sell Taiwan its most advanced military hardware, and trade heavily with both Chinas. Additionally, this past spring the Bush administration leaked what it will do should China invade Taiwan: Our response will be swift and devastating, and likely nuclear.

"The Bush team was clearly thinking, even then, that China could seize the moment if favorable circumstances appeared, and sought to warn them off," he said.

In March, the Los Angeles Times said it had obtained a classified Pentagon report that said the military had been asked to devise plans to use nuclear weapons against China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

The Defense Department envisioned three scenarios where it would consider nuclear responses: targets able to withstand non-nuclear attacks, in retaliation for an attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, and "in the event of surprising military developments."

The paper said one of those "developments" was a conflict between China and Taiwan.

"What would such circumstances look like? A somewhat likely scenario involves an American military that`s simply overstretched," said Preston.

Knowlton said China`s "Liberation 2" military exercise conducted in the fall of 2001 "simulated an invasion of the Taiwan mainland and concerted air, sea and missile attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers."
"More recently, in July 2002, the pro-Communist Hong Kong newspaper, Wen Wei Po, reported that top Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) sources confirmed that China has placed the invasion of Taiwan as its paramount strategic focus in the region," Knowlton wrote.
"Viewing the collapse of the Soviet empire, [China`s rulers] understand that they must expand or die – and they intend to expand at freedom`s expense," wrote Chuck DeVore, a special assistant for foreign affairs in the Reagan Pentagon, in the Aug. 29 edition of the Taipei Times.

"China`s military options have never been stronger and should continue to tilt in its favor until the U.S. begins deploying effective missile defenses to shield itself and its allies in Asia," said DeVore. "Unfortunately, there is a formidable axis of opinion among the policy elite that serves to pre-empt meaningful debate about China`s growing arsenal and intentions."

At least some of China`s military upgrades have been courtesy of the United States. As WorldNetDaily reported March 16, 2001, Beijing managed to upgrade its military rapidly because of technology transfers from the U.S. and, to a lesser degree, Israel.
Some of those upgrades include missile technology. In September 2001, just days before the devastating terror attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., WorldNetDaily reported that China was practicing the sinking of U.S. aircraft carriers using new anti-ship cruise missiles.

The Washington Times reported this week that U.S. military analysts were caught off-guard when China test-fired a new sea-launched cruise missile that struck a target 155 miles away – more than twice the distance the Pentagon had predicted.

China, Knowlton points out, is projected to boost its military spending for the second year in a row, and much of it will be "spent on pursuing offensive missile weaponry such as advanced nuclear tipped DF-5, DF-31, DF-41, JL-2 and CSS-5 rockets."

The DF-5 is the current mainstay of China`s intercontinental ballistic missile force. Though the program was cancelled in 1981, Beijing built and deployed around 20 DF-5s, which are rapidly becoming obsolete.

Beijing, however, is also developing the DF-31 and DF-41, which can travel 8,000 kilometers (4,900 miles) and 12,000 kilometers (7,400 miles), respectively.

The DF-31 "will narrow the gap between current Chinese, U.S. and Russian ballistic missile designs," says an assessment by the Federation of American Scientists. "The DF-31 limited-range ICBM will give China a major strike capability that will be difficult to counterattack at any stage of its operation, from pre-flight mobile operations through terminal flight phases."

The DF-41, meanwhile, is a three-stage solid-fuel ICBM and "will have a mobile launch capability providing greatly improved survivability compared with previous Chinese intercontinental missiles," FAS said.
"China`s long-term goal is to become one of the world`s great powers," says a defense secretary assessment of China in the Fiscal Year 1997 Defense Authorization Act. "Its leaders envision that, at some point during the first half of the 21st century, China will be securely established as the leading economic and political power in the East."
Using Iraq as a distraction might be part of that goal, analysts said.
"This is what I see as the scenario of maximum danger: China will attempt to invade Taiwan at a moment that capitalizes on the United States` growing role in the Middle East and at a juncture when, in the words of Maj. Gen. Huang Bin of China`s National Defense University, the replenishing of [U.S.] expenditures of smart weapons in other theaters of combat becomes `too expensive` to engage in another `protracted war,`" Knowlton wrote.

"The Bush administration must endeavor to judiciously utilize the U.S. military to further foreign policy goals without creating windows of opportunity for nations such as communist China to engage in military adventurism," he said.

Nevertheless, U.S. military officials say any new war with Iraq would be as swift as the first.

According to an estimate published immediately after the Gulf War by U.S. Central Command, the Iraqi military lost 3,700 of 4,280 tanks, 2,400 of their 2,880 armored personnel carriers, and 2,600 of their 3,100 artillery pieces. Between 60,000 and 70,000 Iraqi prisoners were taken, and 42 Iraqi divisions were rendered combat ineffective. The ground phase of the war lasted 100 hours.

By September 2002, however, Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before Congress that Iraq had assembled a force of 2,000 tanks, 3,500 armored personnel carriers and some 2,000 artillery pieces.

Also, U.S. military officials say Iraq – ironically, with Chinese assistance – has managed to rebuild much of its air defense system, using modern fiber-optic networks to transmit targeting data to surface-to-air missile sites.

Still, military analysts say Iraq`s forces are no match for superior U.S. firepower and technology. That means, they say, U.S. forces should be able to quickly dispatch any Iraqi opposition.

Even so, the U.S. would still have to devote much of its active-duty and reserve forces to the effort, giving Beijing a possible window of opportunity. And, DeVore hinted, that makes Beijing`s preoccupation with Taiwan of paramount importance to Washington.

"The struggle for Taiwan is the core U.S. foreign-policy issue of the new century," he wrote. "If Taiwan remains free and democratic, the U.S. has little to fear from China. If Taiwan is absorbed by a totalitarian China, then the 21st century will see the eclipse of American influence and the ideals of freedom, democracy and human rights – nothing less is at stake."

[ThaiGuru]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/comp/article…

ICICI Bank launches gold coin sale

PTI[ MONDAY, DECEMBER 09, 2002 05:51:51 PM ]

MUMBAI: ICICI Bank on Monday launched tamper proof and certified 24 carat pure gold imported coins to be sold across the counter at its branches in Mumbai and Delhi.

Imported from Switzerland, each coin shall carry a 99.99 per cent Assay certification and would be available in 10 grams and five grams categories, ICICI Bank said in a release here.

The coins would be competitively priced based on daily international bullion market, it said.

The release said the bank would launch the coins in other cities in a phased manner with subsequent introduction of other denominations, it added.

[Reineschadenfreude]

sehr gut...

[ThaiGuru]

http://allafrica.com/stories/200212090441.html

State Tightens Loopholes in Gold Trading

The Herald (Harare)

December 7, 2002

Posted to the web December 9, 2002

Harare

THE Government has gazetted new regulations which seek to tighten loopholes in the mining, processing and trading of gold and other minerals.

According to the Gold Trade Regulations (Gold-buying permits for Concession Areas), released yesterday, no person shall purchase or acquire gold in any concession area from small-scale miners, custom milling plant and alluvial gold miners.

Gold buying concession areas were established for the purposes of the regulations which were gazetted.

Gold-buying concession areas include the Harare, Kadoma, Gweru, Bulawayo and Masvingo mining districts.

Any person who wishes to acquire gold in any concession area shall apply in writing to the Minister to be granted gold-buying concession permits.

In addition to this, they are required to lodge an application with the mining commissioner of the mining district within a given concession area with a prescribed fee and a security deposit.

A permit application fee is now $200 000 and a similar amount is required for the renewal of the permit.

A permit shall be valid from the date of its granting to 31st of December of the year in which it is granted.

Every permit holder shall sell or dispose of all gold bought under the permit to the Reserve Bank, at Fidelity Printers and Refiners or any such other places the minister may prescribe.

Every permit holder and gold buying agent shall maintain a register in which he shall keep an accurate record of all gold acquired or disposed of.

Names of parties to the transaction, nature and weight of gold and the price paid or received for the gold shall be entered into the register.

The Reserve Bank shall pay a royalty based on the amount of gold purchased to every rural district council from where the gold originated.

Apart from regulations covering gold mining, the Government also gazetted the Mines and Minerals (Custom Milling Plants) Regulations which deals with registration, offences and penalties and other matters pertaining to custom milling.

Under the regulations, any person who wishes to establish or operate a custom milling plant shall apply in writing to the minister for registration.

The person shall also lodge an application with the mining commissioner of the mining district together with a prescribed fee of $100 000 for application, a registration fee of $100 000 and an inspection fee of $5 000.

A person who operates or intends to operate more than one custom milling plant shall make a separate application in respect of each plant.

Transportation of gold ore to custom milling plants will now be restricted.

No person shall transport gold ore for milling at a custom milling plant or accept such ore for milling unless the person obtains a permit for the transportation of the ore from the mining commissioner.

An application for permit shall be made to the mining commissioner and be accompanied by a fee of $2 000 for application and another $2 000 for a permit.

If an operator or person breaches these regulations, the mining commissioner may cancel the registration or permit by notice in writing to the operator or persons concerned.

The Government has in the past been prejudiced of millions of dollars through the illegal trade of gold and other precious metals within the country and across the borders.

[jeffery2]

Na das ist ja putzig.
Thai Guru schreibt mir eine BM,aber akzeptiert keine Antwort von mir.
Was bist Du nur für eine Pfeife.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

===========================================================================
Re: Chairman`s Corner - Monday, December 09, 2002
We invite you to visit Chairman`s Corner to review three important
postings by our Chairman, Mr. James Sinclair.
===========================================================================
Dear Friends of Tan Range:

We invite you to visit

http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp

Chairman`s Corner - to review three important postings by our Chairman, Mr. James Sinclair.

The articles are:

December 7, 2002: What is the Medium Term Market Impact of the Jolly Green
Giant. "The Exchange Stabilization Funds Activity as Stabilization or
Manipulation of the US Dollar and Gold
http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp?ReportID=45238


December 5, 2002: What is the Difference Between Stabilization and
Manipulation?
http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp?ReportID=45237


December 5, 2002: Here Comes the Calvary. White Hats or Black Hats?
http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp?ReportID=45236

===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 TAN RANGE EXPLORATION CORPORATION (TSXV-TNX) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.tanrange.com/ or send mailto:[e-mail]
Message sent on Mon Dec 9, 2002 at 9:36:55 AM Pacific Time
===========================================================================

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.prime-tass.com/news/6/opened/print.asp?u=20021206…

CBR`s FX/gold reserves up to $48.205 billion as of December 1



MOSCOW, Dec 6 /Prime-TASS/ --

The foreign exchange and gold reserves of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) rose 3.1% in October to U.S. $48.205 billion as of December 1, up from $46.767 billion on November 1, the CBR said Friday.

The reserves stood at $48.2 billion as of November 29, up $500 million on the week.

Since July 1, the amount of CBR reserves disclosed to the public has not included the CBR`s short-term liabilities denominated in hard currency.

The CBR’s reserves minus its short-term hard-currency denominated liabilities stood at $34.5 billion on January 1.

The CBR’s reserves, including short-term liabilities, were at $36.5 billion at the start of the year, compared with $28 billion at the start of 2001. End

06.12.2002 19:26:09

[BremerStadtmusikant]

soso

[bluemoons]

Editorial: Bahn frei für Dollar-Schwäche (09.12.2002)

Am Freitag ist jenseits des Atlantiks Bemerkenswertes geschehen. Das Ereignis mit den wohl gravierendsten Langzeitfolgen scheint uns der Rücktritt von Finanzminister O’Neill und des Wirtschaftsberaters Lindsay zu sein.

Beide waren in ihren Funktionen Verfechter der „Politik eines starken Dollar“. Diese Politik ist seit längerem nicht mehr sinnvoll, sondern hinderlich. Die schwache Konjunktur steht auf schwindenden Pfeilern. Die Industrieproduktion sinkt tendenziell, was ihren Anteil an der gesamten Wirtschaftstätigkeit in den USA zunehmend schmälert. Dafür steigt die Bedeutung des Konsums, der inzwischen 70 Prozent der Wirtschaftstätigkeit ausmacht.

Doch auch der Konsum steht auf wackeligen Beinen, wie nicht zuletzt die jüngsten Zahlen vom US-Arbeitsmarkt zeigen. Es werden nicht nur unzureichend neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen, sondern es verschwinden in steigendem Umfang auch bestehende. Die Arbeitslosigkeit wächst, und damit schrumpft die Zahl der „aktiven“, also besonders ausgabenfreudigen Verbraucher.

Da ist es höchste Zeit, einen stützenden Pfeiler einzuziehen, und das kann in der gegenwärtigen Situation nur der Export sein. Folglich spricht vieles, wenn nicht gar alles dafür, dass der Nachfolger O’Neills die „Politik eines nicht so starken Dollar“ verfolgen wird. „Nicht so stark“ deshalb, weil es kein Offizieller wagen kann, für einen schwachen Dollar zu plädieren, ohne ein weit über den Devisenmarkt hinausgehendes Desaster auszulösen.

So wird O’Neills Nachfolger seine Vorstellungen der Öffentlichkeit wahrscheinlich als eine solide und vernünftige
Dollar-Politik verkaufen. Im Klartext würde dies bedeuten, dass versucht wird, den Greenback langsam und bedächtig abzuwerten. Dies schon deshalb, um die Verantwortlichen in den anderen Währungsblöcken nicht zu reizen.

Denn: Wie man es dreht und wendet, die bereits seit Jahresbeginn zu beobachtende Schwäche des Dollar ist nichts anderes als eine kompetitive Abwertung. Sie soll den USA auf einem nicht mehr wachsenden, sondern schrumpfenden Weltmarkt Wettbewerbsvorteile bringen. Also geht es an die Substanz und nicht mehr um die Verteilung von Wachstum.

Sollten der Euroraum und Japan Nachteile zu spüren beginnen, könnten sie mit den USA in einen Abwertungswettbewerb oder –wettlauf eintreten, um für sich selbst zu retten, was noch zu retten ist. Behaupte da einer nur noch, von Deflationsgefahren könne keine Rede sein.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
Terminmarktwelt

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

December 9, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled lower at $325.50 an ounce, down 40 cents an ounce from Friday’s close. Gold remains underpinned by geopolitical concerns, uncertainty over the “strong dollar policy, and a weaker equities market. "While the odds favor another failure by the gold market to break out on the upside, it has to be said that I still strongly believe that it will happen at some time," wrote Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Monday`s market commentary. "Given the state of the global geopolitical and economic condition, this could easily be the time. I would guess that it depends mostly upon the actions of the U.N., Iraq and the United States," Kaplan wrote. "The gold market looks to be taking a breather after last week`s run up," analyst Charles Nedoss, at Peak Trading Group. "It appears to be buy the rumor sell the fact type trade as the near term risk for war abates and world dissects the voluminous report that Iraq submitted, it appears that a war could weeks away," he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $325.10 an ounce, down from $325.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold remains firm as the U.N. Security Council nations review the dossier provided by Iraq concerning weapons inventories and weapons development programs. "People have taken the view that all things being equal, there`s more to the upside than the downside," one London trader said earlier. "I think it needs to consolidate above $324.00, which we`re doing at the moment," he added. "In a highly uncertain environment gold remains firm this morning at $326.30 an ounce and we expect gold to stay well bid before policy on U.S. currency becomes clear and ahead of results from the weapon inspection in Iraq," Barclays Capital said in a daily report. "Gold should continue to find buying on dips as bargain hunters and physical buyers continue to support the market, while resistance should be found above $328.00," analyst James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said.

Earlier spot gold rose $2.30 in Hong Kong to $326.45. Spot gold was initially lower Monday in Asia, falling victim to slight profit taking, said traders. However, gold recovered late in the session as the same old concerns weighed on investors. Gold remains supported on uncertainty over the Iraqi weapons inspections, generally weak equities markets and a much weaker U.S. dollar. "The market`s still a bit choppy at the moment, mainly because of the Iraqi situation," said a Hong Kong-based trader. Offshore analysts also attributed the gold price rally to the sudden resignation of US Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill and uncertainty over the future of the “strong U.S. dollar policy” under the new US Treasury Secretary.

"The initial news report of O`Neill`s resignation was of course bullish for us and bearish for the dollar, showing financial instability in this country," one analyst said. President Bush is expected to nominate John Snow, who is chairman of rail operator CSX Corp, on Monday to replace Paul O`Neill, who resigned on Friday, sources familiar with the decision told Reuters. Stephen Friedman, who served as co-chairman of Goldman Sachs with former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, is expected to head the White House National Economic Council. "It`s very difficult to give a conclusion on dollar policy because we don`t know what Snow or Friedman`s stance on dollar policy is," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Credit Agricole Indosuez. "The market rationale is that if there is any opportunity for the U.S. to change its stance on dollar policy, this is it. But I think there`s likely to be no change at all.” Also, ``Bush`s new economic administration will be geared to short- term growth and employment generation,`` said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. ``It will probably be at the expense of a strong dollar.`` Also, ``U.S. industry needs a weaker dollar, and the appointment of Snow suggests the U.S. may let it continue to slide,`` said Masa Naito, senior vice president of international equity investment at Fuji Investment Management Co., which manages about 1 trillion yen ($8.1 billion).

Individual Chinese investors will be allowed to trade in gold as early as next year as the nascent Shanghai Gold Exchange tries to stimulate trading, an exchange official said yesterday. The exchange is considering allowing individuals to buy or sell gold bullion next year, as China moves closer to fully deregulating the precious metal. However, the plan has to be approved by the People`s Bank of China. "Given the bank`s prudent stance in the gold liberation, we cannot set a timetable and disclose details of allowance to individual investors," said an exchange official, who requested anonymity. Industry officials said transaction regulations have to be modified if the gold exchange opens to individual investors.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. officials began poring over Iraq`s massive arms dossier Monday, after the U.N. handed them an uncut copy in a reversal of an earlier Security Council decision, diplomats said. A quiet deal was struck to override a Friday ruling of the full 15-member council, which had feared technical secrets on the manufacture of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons might pass into the wrong hands if the full document was circulated. After weekend discussions involving U.N. weapons experts and diplomats of the United States and the four other permanent members of the council -- Britain, France, Russia and China, all nuclear powers already -- it was agreed to let the five have all 12,000 pages, diplomats said. "It`s already in Washington," a Bush administration official said. U.S. experts are expected to search for discrepancies between the disclosures made by Iraq in the 12,000-page dossier and what U.S. intelligence believes it knows about continuing Iraqi efforts to develop banned weapons. Iraq says the declaration it handed to the United Nations at the weekend, not yet made public, shows it has no weapons of mass destruction -- an assertion that puts it on a collision course with Washington. But U.S. officials say they have their own evidence of continuing Iraqi nuclear, biological or chemical programs and insist Washington will take military action if necessary to rid Iraq of them.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Treasury Secretary nominee John Snow, in his first comments as designated successor to ousted Treasury chief Paul O`Neill, said on Monday he will push forward Bush administration plans to boost slow-moving U.S. economic growth. "Should the United States Senate confirm me, I will look forward to joining your economic team to advance a pro-growth, pro-jobs agenda," Snow told a news conference called to announce his nomination. The market wants to know if the arrival of Snow would signal the United States was softening its strong dollar policy. With the U.S. economy sluggish, U.S. manufacturers have complained loudly about Japanese attempts to push the yen down, which saps their export competitiveness.


Comment: Gold was pressure by fund and bank selling but remains supported by concerns about the continued tension between the U.S. and Iraq over claims about weapons of mass destruction. Iraq claims to have no weapons of mass destruction and no continuing weapons development programs. U.S. administration officials said that they would review the documents and then present evidence to the contrary. Meanwhile, the topic of importance now appears to be whether the new nominee for treasury Secretary John Snow will continue to pursue the “strong dollar policy” in order to improve U.S. market competitiveness. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies over the last several hours underpinning support for gold. Also equities markets continued to weaken as U.S. airline carrier United Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and the computer company IBM was downgraded by Wall Street firms. The weaker equities markets provided some support as investors eyed precious metals as a safe haven investment. Nevertheless, gold settled slightly lower on fund and bank selling.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.

[ThaiGuru]

December 9 - Gold $325.50 down 40 cents - Silver $4.60 down 1 cent

Message Discipline Is Ruining The Bush Administration

I can remember the comment like it was yesterday. Right after his taking over the Oval office, President Bush stated something like the economy was not in very good shape. The stock market took a licking that day and he was severely chastised by many on Wall Street and in the media for not understanding how the financial markets worked in the US. He was instructed to be a cheerleader, not a leader. Renowned economists like TV talk show host Geraldo Rivera chided him in the harshest of manners for not being like Clinton and Rubin.

As far as I can tell, that one incident affected the way Bush approached his Presidency from then on and he is far the worse for it, in that he changed his "tell it like it is" style. Based on his recent firings of his economic team, it appears he is still going downhill fast and has lost his sense of self.

Of note:

*Paul O’Neill was supposedly canned because he publicly opposed Bush’s tax cut policies.
*Larry Lindsey was supposedly canned because he publicly stated an Iraq war would cost $100 to $200 billion dollars.

They went off their required "message discipline." This beauty of a phrase was coined by an Al-Jazeera executive who moaned about an interview of racist David Duke by one of his underlings. He stated it was a blunder, as it violated what the US administration would accept in print and might prevent Al-Jazeera’s access to the White House and the Bush Administration.

In January, the Washington editor of Barron’s told a similar story during a gathering I attended at The Washington Press Club. It was during Ralph Nader’s Fed conference, The Federal Reserve: Reality Vs. Myth. Early in Alan Greenspan’s tenure as Fed chairman, he wrote a particularly critical article about Greenspan in Barron’s. He was promptly taken off the "A" team party list and became persona non grata at future Greenspan functions.

All of this relates to the gold manipulation issue. A GATA delegation warned Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert on May 10, 2000 of the gold problem. We handed him our Gold Derivatives Banking Crisis document. We stated that if something wasn’t done about the problem, it could eventually hurt President Bush, if he were to be elected in the coming fall, and subsequently could come to haunt his Republican Party.

On May 23, 2001, as mentioned in a recent Midas, I went the State Capitol Building in Austin, Texas to meet with a state politician/long-time friend of the President and another boyhood friend of the President, a Café member. They both wanted to make sure The President was aware of the gold problem. These two friends of President Bush were concerned their friend might be blindsided by the issue and could be receiving bad advice from the big money/politically influential bullion bankers. The next day via his private fax, this politician sent GW BUSH a two-page Executive Summary of GATA’s findings.

What none of us knew at the time was that message discipline had become the order of the day. Truth was thrown by the wayside. Our gold warnings to the President and the leadership of the Republican Party fell on deaf ears.

Dealing with the gold problem would have meant taking on the influential bullion bankers, the rest of Wall Street, and probably Alan Greenspan. The revered Robert Rubin would never have allowed such a thing to happen.

Of course, what is never discussed is why Rubin was so revered. He organized the rigging of the US financial markets and created the stock market bubble, making Wall Street insiders incredible fortunes. Then, he left town. Now, the bubble is breaking and will be for some time to come. What we are experiencing at present is the hangover of that incredible party. I have said it before and I say it again, Rubin will go down in history as a reviled financial market bum when the real story is told.

Therein lies more of the message discipline issue and THE PROBLEM. Truthful stories are not allowed to be told in the United States of America, not when one wants to confront the establishment concerning serious financial matters. Cheerleading and disinformation is what counts and rules the day around Wall Street, not la verite. That is why the GATA story has not been discussed in the financial press all these years. The fact that the word GATA has not even been allowed in print in the financial media for four years actually gives us extraordinary credibility. For if we were wrong, we would have been vilified and publicly dismissed by now.

As oft mentioned in Midas commentary, the cabal crooks cannot stand scrutiny of any kind – so they ban what we have discovered. Anyone daring to stray away from this message discipline will witness a financial journalism career going down the drain. Let’s hear it again for our wonderful FREE PRESS. What a joke!

That brings us full circle to the firings. Something does not make sense.

*John Snow, former head of the Business Round Table, is known to be a harsh critic of the growing US deficits.

*Stephen Friedman, former Goldman Sachs co-chairman, has been a harsh critic of the Bush tax cuts.

Something is not right.

Immediately following the firings, the Wall Street pundits (to a man and woman) all said the President would bring in two people that thought like he did, i.e. being truly in favor of cutting taxes and running up the deficit. They were all wrong. Strangely, President Bush picked two people who have previously, and profoundly, dissented from his own views.

like he did, i.e. being truly in favor of cutting taxes and running up the deficit.
Why did he really pick these people?

The message of the market today was many players do not want to stick around to find out the why. They tanked with the DOG falling a whopping 55 to 1367 and the DOW sinking 172 to 8474. The DOG blew through 1400 support and the DOW took out strong support at 8500. The S&P broke its support at 900 by closing at 892. The Transportation Average was also smashed for more than 4%. A rout all the way around.

The two new additions to the President’s economic team may go on message discipline, but heretofore, they did not believe Bush`s economic views to be the right course of action. Something else is up here. Something is very wrong in US financial land and the Bush Administration. That was the message of the markets today.

President Bush’s demeanor during his introduction of the proposed new Treasury Secretary was very dour. NOTICEABLY SO!!! That did not go unnoticed either.

I will leave this curious topic up to others for now, except for the gold aspect of it, for at some point soon it will be THE story. The gold price is going to explode. The financial and political ramifications of a soaring gold price will be substantial. It makes sense that Stephen Friedman will be brought in, even if for that reason alone. After all, who knows more about what was done to gold and why than Robert Rubin’s former co-chairman at Goldman Sachs? He will have his work cut out for him dealing with the bullion banks in the months to come.

As far as John Snow is concerned, the only question is whether we will get another snow job. When O’ Neill became Treasury Secretary, we hoped he would advocate a weaker dollar to help a beleaguered manufacturing sector, one that he emerged from. That was not to be the case. He stayed on the message discipline of his old friend Alan Greenspan and the bullion bankers/Wall Street crowd that feared a weaker dollar. Like Bush, he was probably swayed from his truer instincts. For that, he has now paid a heavy price.

The scenario for a gold price explosion could not be more bullish. At the same time, the continued price-capping by an increasingly desperate cabal could not be more obvious. The last few seconds takedown on Friday was blatant manipulation, one carefully orchestrated to send a message to other shorts. The open interest soared on Friday, rising 8794 contracts. The total stands at 179,807 contracts. It has gone up a huge 16,000+ contracts in two days.

The Gold Cartel desperately needs to turn all these new specs into losers and fast. The next couple of days are pivotal. If gold can close above $327 tomorrow, I suspect the dam is about ready to break. What has happened to the gold market these past years is spreading all over the world, thanks to the GATA camp. The coup de grace for the Gold Cartel bums is the Howe/Bolser report. It is devastating to their massive short gold position.

As stated in MIDAS days ago, the specs are pouring in to take on the crooked Gold Cartel. Serious investors are becoming aware of their very vulnerable short position. In a sense, this is almost a fight to the death. The Gold Cartel will not cave in easily, as we continue to see. They must be done in and carried out on a stretcher.

This is guts ball time. If gold can close anywhere near $330 in the days ahead, they will have had it. GATA bugler: please stand by!!!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday Dec 9 2002

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.78, PM $1.90, with world gold at $325.45 and $325.30. Slightly below, and virtually at, legal import point. Rather a robust performance, given last week’s sharp increase.

TOCOM gold traders, of course, missed most of the gold buoyancy which occurred during NY hours on Friday. They were far more dismayed by the 3 yen reversal in the exchange rate they encountered on Japan’s opening than they were impressed by c. $1 uptick in the gold price. Essentially, they accepted the new situation passively: on a 43% decline in aggregate volume to the equivalent of 26, 208 Comex lots, the active contract was marked down 18 yen, while open interest slipped another 1,332 Comex lots. It now stands at the equivalent of 111,813 Comex contracts. (On Friday NY traded 59,993 lots; open interest jumped a massive 8,794 lots to 179, 807.)

Gold moved up $ 9.50 last week, finally smashing through the $325 level, which as Leonard Kaplan correctly observes, has already marked the crest of six rally attempts since May. But what an effort! According to UBS Warburg:

"In the week to 3 December, Comex trading speculators continued to cut positions …the traders’ net long position fell by 0.42Moz to 6.91Moz. Since the end of the data collection (i.e. last Tuesday) gold has rallied by nearly $10 dollars and by our estimates at least 1.3 million ounces of longs have been added to the Comex position, excluding the move on Friday."

On this reckoning, almost 900,000 ozs was probably added on Friday, putting the overall long up by almost 70 tonnes in three days, to some 9.1 Mm ozs. And still the seller…sells. "Very large offers were seen above $328.50 and once gold hit the highs of $329 bid, gold came off a quick three-dollars." in UBS Warburg’s words;

"Around 329 good selling emerged and took the market right back to 325"

Mitsui London corroborates. And lease rates do nothing. One can certainly see the logic in joining Leonard Kaplan in his fears:

"Rational thought demands the conclusion that it is more likely that we fail again, and investors/speculators should now be, more or less, out of the market, by either selling or writing at the money calls on their entire positions…Please note that more money has been made by selling gold at these levels, only to repurchase it lower, than by holding long positions. "

But in fact there is positive news for the friends of gold today. Aside from a John Plender column reporting without jeering the Murphy/Howe/GATA market view at present – respectability is alarming! – see

http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=021209000404&que…

A much more important piece (see below) reports the imminent abandoning of the restraints under which the ECB was formed:

"The reassessment "offers an ideal chance to reshape monetary strategy in a new French style", shedding some of the legacy of Germany`s Bundesbank," as one observer politely puts it;

A noted bullion dealer has some good charts showing how heroic the CFTC spec build-up in relationship to the open interest, and usefully points out – again- that the oil specs do not seem to expect war.)

With plenty of evidence that the major Central Banks are panicking, for once the tide seems on gold’s side.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe / Metalle: Weiterer Fehlstart der Haussiers am Silbermarkt (10.12.2002)

Silber hat in der vergangenen Woche seit längerem wieder einmal eine gute Vorstellung gegeben, die den Haussiers Mut machte. Begleitet wurden die Preissteigerungen von Kommentaren, in denen die „ultimative Explosion“ der Notierungen angekündigt wurde. Die Autoren verweisen auf die immensen Produktionsdefizite, die sich fast ohne Unterbrechung seit Jahrzehnten angehäuft haben und nun ihren Preis forderten. Jetzt gebe es zu den herrschenden Preisen einfach kein Silber mehr, heißt es in diesem Lager.

Diese Argumente tauchen immer wieder auf wie auch Berichte über die Sichtung des Ungeheuers von Loch Ness. Mit der Statistik können am Silbermarkt in der Tat Preise von 7, 8, 10 oder sogar 12 Dollar je Feinunze herbeigeredet werden. Doch die reale Welt dieses Marktes sieht anders aus. Immer wieder fanden sich in der Vergangenheit private Horte, die beim Erreichen eines angemessen erscheinenden Preises reichlich Silber auf den Markt fließen ließen.

In den vergangenen Jahres hat die Bedeutung dieser Horte für die Versorgung abgenommen. Dafür ist ein Anbieter auf den Plan getreten, der bis dahin unbekannt war, aber fraglos Gewicht hat: China. Auch Russland hat Silber auf dem Weltmarkt verkauft, und es plant für die kommenden Jahre eine starke Ausweitung seiner Bergwerksproduktion.

Das stärkste Argument gegen nennenswert steigende Silberpreise ist jedoch die industrielle Nachfrage. Sie droht im Bereich der Herstellung von Filmmaterial regelrecht wegzubrechen, da es wegen der fortschreitenden Entwicklung elektronischer Verfahren weitgehend überflüssig wird. Es ist nicht zu erkennen, dass ein anderer Industriezweig seinen Bedarf in fünf oder zehn Jahren so zu erhöhen vermag, dass er die zur Herstellung von Filmen nicht mehr benötigten Mengen aufnehmen könnte.

Silber ist somit sozusagen entweiht. Im Gegensatz zu Gold verfügt es noch nicht mal mehr über eine monetäre Komponente. Dies alles wird aber die „Visionäre“ nicht davon abhalten, immer wieder von besseren Zeiten zu träumen und mit objektiv falschen Argumenten den Eindruck zu erwecken, dies sei ein Markt vor dem großen Aufbruch.

So war es auch jetzt wieder. Nüchtern betrachtet, wurden spekulative Baissiers am Terminmarkt zur Abdeckung ihrer hohen Baissepositionen gezwungen, und andere Spekulanten haben angesichts der aufstrebenden Dynamik und charttechnischer Signale neu gekauft. Wenn nicht noch ein Wunder geschieht, wird auch dieser Preisaufschwung schon bald wieder vergessen sein.


(13)
Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

Kurz & Knapp: Rohstoffe (10.12.2002)

Der Preis für Rohöl kann 2003 im Falle einer militärischen Aktion gegen den Irak um durchschnittlich 16 % höher liegen als derzeit, schätzen japanische Ökonomen.

Die Aluminiumbestände dürften weltweit bis ins Jahr 2004 hinein weiter steigen, falls keine Produktionskapazitäten stillgelegt werden, meint Morgan Stanley.

Für Aluminium müssen japanische Importeure im ersten Quartal 2003 höhere Prämien auf die im Rahmen langfristiger Lieferverträge vereinbarten Prise zahlen, berichten Händler und begründen dies mit Knappheit an dem Metall in Asien.

Gold erscheint in einem deflationären Klima als Anlageobjekt attraktiv, meint Morgan Stanley.

Bei Gold scheint die Marke von 328 $ je Feinunze eine schwer überwindbare charttechnische Hürde zu bilden, erklärt Standard Bank.

Nickel verfügt über die solidesten fundamentalen Bedingungen, erklärt SocGen mit Blick auf 2003.

Die Platinnachfrage in China erweist sich derzeit erneut als sehr preissensibel, stellt UBS Warburg fest.

Die neue Weizenernte in Argentinien ist zu mehr als einem Viertel eingebracht. Refco erklärt, das Angebot von dort drücke nun zusätzlich auf die Weltmarktpreise.

Die Ernte von Gerste in Kanada ist 2002/03 (August/Juli) nach Angaben des Statistischen Amtes dort um ein Drittel auf 7,283 Millionen Tonnen gesunken.

Sojaöl weist gegenüber Palmöl derzeit den höchsten Preisaufschlag seit 1994 auf, stellt Refco fest.

Zur Stützung des Kaffeepreises plant Indonesien Verhandlungen mit Vietnam.

Bei Kakao sorgen sich Marktteilnehmer immer mehr über mögliche langfristige Folgen der Gewalttätigkeiten in der Elfenbeinküste, berichtet Sucden.


(28)
Terminmarktwelt

[manfred1_I]

Ich habe z.B. bei Rohöl von Preisen zwischen 50 und
80 Dollar gelesen.

Bei Gold 328 Dollar. Wer glaubt wird selig.

Dieses sind nur zwei Beispiele, die mit Sicherheit
im Bericht # 3264 viel zu lasch dargestellt sind.

Hier liegt erheblich mehr Potenzial im Markt.

Bis dann. Die Zeit wird es zeigen.

[Gringo1]

http://www.muster-aktien.de/Muster-Aktien_Dezember-2002.pdf

[Gringo1]

http://www.muster-aktien.de/Muster-Aktien_Dezember-2002.pdf

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

December 10 2002

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.85, PM $2.35, with world gold at $325.40 and $ 325.50. Below and comfortably above legal import point. Very bad news for Bears/shorts (if there are any).

Reuters carries a story very misleadingly headlined "Imports seen down 66 pct on high prices" which turns out to refer to the short term decline the notoriously self-interested Indian bullion dealers claim might happen over the next couple of weeks, which happens to be a lull in the context of the main buying season. For the amount it charges, Reuters ought to employ competent editors for the horrific amount they charge. Summer ’99 (which actually was a major lull period) demonstrated very forcefully that at an attractive price the Indians will buy very heavily.

With no gold or yen leadership, TOCOM shriveled: only 12,558 Comex lots (equivalent) traded – down 65.8% on Monday: open interest was virtually static (up 177 Comex lots). (NY yesterday traded 23,499 contracts; open interest rose another 3,673 contracts.)

The open interest situation chilled observers and no doubt traders: to quote UBS Warburg:

"We now estimate that the total traders’ long position on comex is about 9 million ounces, approaching the level which has marked a recent high in both the speculators’ positions and the spot gold price."

And that was before the 11 tonne increase yesterday. Under the circumstances, today’s sell-off was mild – no doubt because of the always-misjudged Indian appetite.

The institutionally-respected Gartman Letter has spluttered a surprisingly weak attack on Reg Howe’s imperative-reading,

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

Gartman rather primitively tries to dismiss the study (which he admits is "is sweeping through the gold trading market" by asserting that "the short position in various derivatives, options, futures, forwards, et al dwarfs by a material multiple the amount of gold mined in any one year. We find that bit of information utterly worthless however"

The idea that these numbers are meaningless was decisively repudiated by Nicholas Dunbar, (who writes for the derivatives industry-bible magazine Risk http://www.risk.net/. As I commented discussing his book about LTCM, "Inventing Money":

"Dunbar is not at all willing to accept the peculiar but common argument that because the numbers are so huge they must be meaningless:

"In the case of LTCM derivative notionals are real numbers indicating the real economic effect of the fund. The actions of Alan Greenspan in October [1998 –cutting interest rates three times] would bear this out"."

See :

http://www.vdare.com/jb/WallStChangingCulture.htm

Those who suspect Central Banks are acting nefariously have received more ammunition in the Nov 25 speech of BOE Chief Economist – and Executive Director – Charles Bean. In a far more illuminating – and elegant – paper than the infamous Bernanke harangue, Bean actually goes further:

"committing to keep future short-term official rates at zero should help to drive down longer-term interest rates as well. If necessary this could be complemented by outright purchases of longer-term government securities, or even in extremis operations in corporate debt and equity."

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches/speech182.pdf

P11. (JB emphasis.)

Nice work John sluething out that Bank of England
document. Very bullish news for gold.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

December 10 - Gold $323.40 down $2.10 - Silver $4.60 unchanged

CRB Closes In Multi-Year High Ground / Arrogant Nitwit Attacks GATA Again

No market has ever traded like gold in all of market history. Go up to the $325/$330 area and right down again. Up, down – Up, down – Up down. This is our 6th or 7th go around. It is like clockwork, but that is how a rigged/capped market trades. The Gold Cartel knows if gold convincingly takes out $330, their financial problems will be enormous. Thus, they will continue their crooked fraud until they are blown up. That may occur sooner than most people think.

Even many in our camp are bailing out because gold could not get through $330. "Why give profits away when the bad guys are obviously going to take gold right down again?" is the natural thought. Will the obvious occur? It seems TOO clear-cut this time. I would be surprised if we don’t get a surprise and The Gold Cartel gets surprised, as gold comes right back at them by the end of the week. If so, they have had it.

The negatives are obvious, however. Comex open interest rose another 3673 contracts yesterday, bringing the total to 183,480 contracts. Twenty thousand new longs were put on Thursday, Friday and Monday. Most of them were large specs and all are losers as of tonight’s close. The Gold Cartel will do what they can to rout them and gold tomorrow. Should the physical market rise up to meet the challenge, we could have quite the exciting show late this week. If the physical market is not strong enough to meet their selling, gold will be drubbed as is usually the case at these price levels.

Regardless, I don’t see any sell-off lasting very long no matter what happens to the recent tech specs. The gold fundamentals are just TOO BULLISH. To name just one, the CRB closed in multi-year high ground at 232.69, up 1.97.

During the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa, the rand traded around more than eight to one against the dollar. Then, it blew out to higher than 13 to one. Going to South Africa with dollars was like playing with Monopoly money. That move up in the rand helped hedgers to lock in substantial profits and encouraged forward sales. As the rand retreats to more normal levels, the reverse is obviously true.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Es ist halt meistens schon so, dass man ein Ziel nicht an einem Stück erreicht, vor allem wenn vom Gegner (Gold Cabal) immer wieder einige Steine in den Weg gelegt werden.

Gestern gab es für Gold Bugs eine gute Möglichkeit nachzukaufen, und ein Spiel zu spielen.

ThaiGuru hat Fische versenken gespielt, da vergeht die Zeit wie im Fluge, und schon will der Goldpreis wieder nach OBEN!


Physisches Gold, strong buy!!!

Mann gönnt sich ja sonst nichts.

[peter.wedemeier1]

§Gold is not only going now to a new-recover high, but also above the old-time high recorded in March 1980. Today, right at the US opening of the COMEX, the Cavalry (having ridden into New York cash trading) pounced on the COMEX longs. Can`t have the gold market saying bad things about the new appointment for Secretary of the Treasury certainly on the same day of the month that the Federal Reserve meets to discuss economic factors.

Note what occurred in the dollar at 9:12 this morning US time and three guesses who SAVED THE DAY for the buck?

Please also note at 9:13 what started to happen in the cash market for gold and continued into the opening of the COMEX with a goal of pushing gold under our $324.50 number. That presence was in the market both in the dollar and gold until 10.14 AM. Yet, for all that muscle from that point on, gold rose and the dollar fell.

We are very close to resolving this war into a new battleground of $348-$353. Yes, $324.50 is now the key number, not $330. The ESF will fight gold and the dollar all the way, losing the daily battles and the war entirely. Certainly for those that only see the high, low and close of gold, it looks like an anti-gold/pro-dollar interest won, but they did not. They didn`t as they made their effect, but instantly after their manipulative presence ended, gold strengthen and the dollar weakened.

I still firmly feel that we are very close (tomorrow, a few days maybe) to a breakout of the handle of the three/four year teacup and a technical explosion to high gold prices."
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/12…

[ThaiGuru]

This looks good for gold!

Excerpt from New York Standard and Poor, Dec. 11, 2002

In the Standard & Poor`s commentary, "Global Financial System Stress," the credit ratings agency monitors several leading indicators to spot adverse trends. These indicators are excessive credit growth, increasing leverage of the private sector, asset price inflation, and the weakening of a banking system`s external position.

The commentary cites banking systems potentially facing stress in Ireland, the Netherlands, Panama, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States.

Banking systems in Brazil, China, Egypt, Germany, Japan, Lebanon, Poland, Taiwan, and Turkey have been identified as already under stress.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/11/national/main53258…



Bush Vows `Overwhelming Force`

WASHINGTON, Dec. 11, 2002

(CBS) In a message to Congress that it hoped Saddam Hussein would also hear, the Bush administration Wednesday said it would use "overwhelming force," including nuclear weapons, if chemical or biological weapons are used against America or its forces.

Presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer called it a declaration "of how seriously the United States would take it in the event that weapons of mass destruction were used."



"It`s a reiteration of a statement that has been made previously, but this time it ties it all together to make clear that the United States will indeed respond," Fleischer said.

The threat was contained in a White House document, called the "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," to be delivered to Congress on Wednesday.

The six-page statement said the United States "reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force — including through resort to all of our options — to the use of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) against the United States, our forces abroad and friends and allies."

That passage intends to threaten U.S. nuclear retaliation as a deterrent to hostile governments, said senior administration officials who briefed journalists about the document Tuesday.

According to CBS News Senior White House Correspondent John Roberts, the policy announced yesterday rests on three pillars:

counter-proliferation, or the use of deterrence to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction

nonproliferation to prevent the spread of weapons, through treaties

"consequence management," or the willingness of the United States to respond to the employment of weapons of mass destruction with "overwhelming force"

The policy is consistent with the doctrine of "preemptory self defense" that the administration has recently adopted in explicit form. This permits the use of force to prevent, rather than simply respond to, an attack.

The officials emphasized that the strategy, developed jointly by national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and homeland security adviser Tom Ridge, is an overall statement of the Bush administration`s overarching principles.

However, the commitment to possible nuclear retaliation is not new.

In a defense department report on American strategy two years agao, the Pentagon stated that, "The U.S. nuclear posture also contributes substantially to the ability to deter aggression against the United States, its forces abroad, and its allies and friends."

"Although the prominence of nuclear weapons in the nation’s defense has diminished since the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons remain important as one of a range of responses available to deal with threats or use of NBC weapons against U.S. interests," the report read.

The timing of the policy`s release, however, coincides with other muscle-flexing by the President Bush designed to show Iraqi President Saddam Hussein that the United States is serious about seeing him disarmed.

The White House, reports CBS News White House Correspondent Mark Knoller, feels this public proclamation of U.S. doctrine might dissuade nations and groups from using weapons of mass destruction. In the first Gulf War, the first President Bush apparently issued such a warning to Saddam, and some believe that the president`s admonition discouraged Saddam from using biological or chemical weapons against invading U.S. troops.

The White House document gathers into one comprehensive whole several doctrines for prevention, deterrence and defense that Mr. Bush has enunciated since taking office, including a commitment to boost programs aimed at containing the damage of any chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack.

The strategy said some unspecified states that support terrorists already have weapons of mass destruction and seek even more "as tools of coercion and intimidation."

"For them, these are not weapons of last resort, but militarily useful weapons of choice intended to overcome our nation`s advantages in conventional forces and to deter us from responding to aggression against our friends," the document said.

"We must accord the highest priority to the protection of the United States, our forces and our friends and allies" from weapons of mass destruction, it continued.

In rare agreement with the White House, former Vice President Al Gore embraced his rival`s strategy. "As presented, Al Gore feels this is in keeping with America`s long-held strategy of using our own weapons of mass destruction principally to dissuade any aggressor from using their WMD arsenal against us," said spokesman Alejandro Cabrera.


©MMII CBS Worldwide Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

December 11, 2002 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled higher at $324.60 an ounce, up $1.20 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold traded higher on rising geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar falling against both the Yen and Euro. Traders also saw gold thriving as the Bush administration upped the geopolitical temperature in a late Tuesday warning to Iraq and other states that the United States was prepared to use nuclear weapons to respond to an attack from weapons of mass destruction. "Many players are reluctant to establish new short positions with the situation in Iraq," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group. Curtis Hesler, editor of Missoula, Montana - based Professional Timing Service predicates his strong bullish case for gold on a weakening dollar. Says Hesler, "If the dollar turns around and goes to new highs, forget about gold." But Hesler says a growing U.S. trade deficit and the Fed`s apparent focus on staving off deflation by printing money makes a stronger dollar unlikely. Tom O`Brien, editor of the Gold Report, technicals present the strongest case for a big advance in gold. O`Brien reports that gold has been advancing on heavy volume followed by partial retracement on lighter volume and a recent upside breakout. Should gold hit $332 an ounce and hold, O`Brien says it could quickly move to $365.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $324.25 an ounce, up from $323.75 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold traded higher in Europe on geopolitical concerns, a weaker equities market in the U.S., and uncertainty over U.S. dollar policy with a new economic team in place. "The tone overall remains constructive as a result of the expected change in exchange-rate policy in the US, and the under current of political tension," said Rhona O`Connell, analyst at the World Gold Council. The view was echoed by Ingrid Sternby, analyst at Barclays Capital: "We think the bias remains on the upside in a continuous uncertain environment, partly related to Iraq." For the rest of the year, barring sharp moves in the U.S. dollar or an intensification of Iraqi/U.S. tensions, gold will continue to trade in its $305 to $330 range, said analyst John Reade of UBS Warburg in London.

Earlier spot gold closed at $323.75 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, down $1.50 from Tuesday`s close of $325.25. Gold remained flat in Asia from the lower New York close and ticked up slightly at the close. Gold remained firm as the U.S. dollar weakened slightly against the Yen and Asian equities markets traded lower. "It seems the market was in a corrective phase after last week`s bull run," one broker said. "It was under selling pressure from operators who had built up long positions on the back of the Iraq issue and the yen`s depreciation."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Spanish warships have intercepted a North Korean ship carrying hidden Scud missiles, but the United States said Wednesday that the discovery was unlikely to affect its policy on the reclusive communist state. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, arriving in China on an Asian tour to drum up support for Washington`s push to disarm Iraq, said the interception of the So San in the Arabian Sea Monday was further evidence North Korea was a major proliferator of weapons. The ship was released after Yemen declared that the missiles were for its army.

U.N. experts scoured a suspected arms site near Baghdad on Wednesday after the United States threatened possible nuclear retaliation against Iraq if its forces or allies were attacked with doomsday weapons. Teams of inspectors, accompanied by Iraqi officials, drove from their headquarters on the outskirts of the capital to several locations as their hunt for Iraq`s alleged banned arsenal picked up pace in its third week.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

There is a "significant risk" that the recovering global economy could slip back into recession, further frustrating efforts to improve conditions for the world`s poorest people, a World Bank report found. Flagging consumer confidence, weak stock markets, concerns over Japan`s banking system, worries about debt problems in Latin America and uncertainties over a potential U.S. war with Iraq and the impact on oil prices are all contributing to a gloomy economic outlook, the bank said. "The global rebound might quickly lose momentum and there is a significant risk that the world could slip back into recession," the bank`s 2003 assessment of global economic prospects finds.

There was no U.S. economic data for Wednesday, but Thursday promises to be a big day with the release of November retail sales figures. Economists predict retail sales to show marginal monthly gains -- up by 0.3 percent overall, and by 0.1 percent without autos. Weekly jobless claims figures also arrive on Thursday, with the data subject to a substantial upward revision. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for early December is due out Friday.


Comment: Gold is not expected to trade too far out of the current range for the rest of the year (about three weeks), unless there is some external event such as a terrorist act over the holidays or an Iraqi violation of the U.N. resolutions. A surprise in U.S. economic data could also give gold a lift. An eventual showdown with Iraq appears more certain with the huge military buildup in the region. U.S. and British aircraft continue to attack Iraqi radar and missile sites in an apparent “softening up” action in preparation for the eventual ground assault. Meanwhile, the Bear Market Rally appears to be losing steam as consumer confidence appears to be waning again as reported by an ABC News poll. Consumer spending at the retail level appears to be falling off leaving retailers worried as the holiday season is the major earnings season. Energy costs are rising again causing concern that corporate earnings will be short circuited and consumers pocketbooks will be lightened. The World Bank today released its report on the global economy and concerns again are about a global recession. The stage appears to be set for another rally in precious metals although we may have to wait until the holidays are over and investors focus on the grim economic data and weakening equities markets. Gold at least appears to be well supported at these levels with good upside potential.


- Jon H. Warner -



E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

===========================================================================
Re: Chairman`s Corner - Wednesday, December 11, 2002
Q & A/cost of the war with Iraq
Author: James Sinclair
===========================================================================
Question:

Jim, can you recommend some good article on the potential cost of the war
with Iraq. How are we going to pay for it in the present economic
environment?

Answer:

Yes, there has been some sound work done on the cost of the upcoming US
invasion. Of the few good articles done so far I recommend; The Economist`s
article titled "Calculating the Consequences" on page 63 of the November
30th 2002 issue under the section "Finance & Economics." This article
breaks down the cost of the conflict by direct military spending plus
follow through costs. The follow through costs are further broken down into
occupation and peacekeeping, reconstruction and nation building,
humanitarian assistance, impact on oil markets, and macroeconomic impact.
The low estimate runs USD121 billions and the high estimate is USD1,595
billions.

Since your inquiry was about articles I noted the Wall Street Journal,
Friday, December 6th 2002 titled "The Cost of Fighting" by Robert Hormats,
page A14 ran an editorial that asked the question, "How are we going to pay
for the war?" This editorial primarily asked the question but offered no
hard answers. Allow me to point to a probable answer. Governor Barnanke of
the US Federal Reserve explained to us recently that he has a "Printing
press or its electronic counterpart whereby he can produce money at
practically no cost." I submit to you the possibility that this war has
another purpose and that is stimulate the economy. I wonder if Greenspan &
Barnanke have signed on the Bush War Plan and its financing while the past
secretary of the Treasury and the Chief economic advisor to the White house
were less supportive. Sure it is a strategy to have a scapegoat for poor
economic results for the sitting administration but I wonder if that
strategy really is worth two appointment`s resignations. Do you not think
there may have been somewhat more to it.

There is a possibility that the present administration is going back to the
Roosevelt experience and how the deflation of the 30s was finally ended.

My Conclusion is concise: The dollar is going lower and gold is going
higher and there is nothing that the Exchange Stabilization Fund or Gold
Cartel can do to stop it. Further it is happening right now.

===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 TAN RANGE EXPLORATION CORPORATION (TSXV-TNX) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.tanrange.com/ or send mailto:[e-mail]
Message sent on Wed Dec 11, 2002 at 1:03:51 PM Pacific Time
=========================================================================

[bluemoons]

Das Gold rauscht wieder

Im Frühjahr setzte der erste große Goldrausch seit langer Zeit ein. Der Kurs des Edelmetalls stieg nach einer Phase der Bodenbildung in 2001 über 300 Dollar und war kaum noch zu bremsen. Kurz vor der Marke von 330 Dollar war dann doch Schluss. Im Sommer begann eine Konsolidierung, im Herbst scheiterte ein weiterer Anlauf auf die Marke von 330 Dollar. Jetzt notiert die Feinunze wieder in der Nähe des Widerstands und zahlreiche Experten glauben an den Durchbruch.

Zur Begründung wird vor allem auf die Krisenstimmung hingewiesen. Da gibt es zum einen die fortdauernde Konjunkturkrise, deren Lösung noch nicht in Sicht ist. Vor allem halten Fachleute aber die Irak-Krise für einen potenziellen Katalysator, der den Goldpreis über den Widerstand bei 330 Dollar befördern könnte.

Wird die Hürde überwunden, sind deutlich höhere Notierungen erreichbar. Aus technischer Sicht wären dann Kurse von 400 Dollar realistisch. Und die Technik ist beim Goldpreis von großer Bedeutung, weil fundamental viele, kaum vorhersehbare Faktoren, auf den Kurs einwirken können.

Minengesellschaften haben Probleme

Einigermaßen berechenbar ist noch die weltweit Nachfrage nach Schmuck, die gegenwärtig nicht hoch ist. Dafür wirkt sich das anhaltende Dehedging der Minengesellschaften positiv aus. Noch immer bauen Minenbetreiber die Menge an vorab verkauftem Gold ab, indem sie es zurückkaufen.

Mittel- und langfristig hängt das Damoklesschwert der Goldreserven der Notenbanken über dem Markt. 1999 haben sich die Notenbanken auf eine Limitierung ihrer Verkäufe geeinigt. Es lässt sich aber nicht voraussagen, ob die Banken reagieren würden, wenn das Edelmetall im Preis stark steigen würde.

Ein weiterer Einflussfaktor für das Kurspotenzial ist naturgemäß die jährliche Goldproduktion, die im Moment abnimmt. Das hängt damit zusammen, dass die Minenbetreiber Schwierigkeiten haben, rentabel zu arbeiten. Es wird kaum mehr nach neuen Goldvorkommen geschürft, weil bei einem Unzenpreis um die 315 Dollar schwer Gewinne zu erzielen sind. Die Aktien-Kurse von Barrick [ Kurs/Chart ], Anglo Gold [ Kurs/Chart ], Harmony [ Kurs/Chart ] und Co. sind entsprechend auf einem deutlich niedrigeren Niveau als im Frühjahr, obwohl der Goldpreis etwa gleich hoch liegt.

Empfehlenswerte Fonds

Voraussichtlich würde der Bruch des Widerstands bei 330 Dollar zu einem starken Kursanstieg bei den Minenaktien führen, weil sich die Lage der Unternehmen schlagartig bessern würde. Goldminen-Aktien sind deshalb eine interessante Beimischung für risikobereite Investoren. Der Anteil am Gesamtportfolio sollte wegen der spekulativen Natur des Themas aber auf maximal zehn Prozent begrenzt sein. Um die notwendige Diversifikation in Einzeltiteln dennoch zu erreichen, ist ein Investment in Goldfonds ratsam.

Hier einige empfehlenswerte Fonds

Fondsname WKN 3-Jahres-Performance
Merrill Lynch World Gold Funds A 974119 89 Prozent

AIG Equity Fund Gold 972376 77 Prozent

PEH Q-Goldmines 986366 67 Prozent


© 11.12.2002 www.stock-world.de

[ThaiGuru]

December 11 - Gold $324.60 up $1.20 - Silver $4.62 up two cents

Physical Gold Market IS Rising To Counter Cabal Onslaught

Yesterday, I had three major points to bring to your attention:

*The set-up for a sell-off seems TOO pat. The big players all know the large specs have piled in at fast clip recently and that The Gold Cartel always takes gold down from these levels. Except for the smart money (my opinion), most everyone trading gold believes the cabal will win again in the short-term. TOO many believe a price sell-off from these levels is a foregone conclusion. Rarely does a market do what so many are so certain of what has to happen.

*Look for a surprise. While, not conclusive yet, today was a surprise. Gold always sells off on a day like today after spikes like we saw last Friday. Check the charts. Gold should have come in $1.50 lower and gone down from there. It did not. After the required take down last evening, gold came in higher, withstood cabal selling and closed nicely up on the day – receiving no help from outside markets. That is the best kind of gold action of all.

*The cash market could firm up to meet Gold Cartel selling. That is what happened – at least so far. The cabal is not used to encountering such firm physical demand at these high price levels. They must know they have a tiger by the tail.

What is going on out there in gold land? Certainly of profound significance is the continued dissemination of the Howe/Bolser gold report. It is devastating to the massively short Gold Cartel. Let me repeat. This report is circulating at the highest levels of the gold/investment world. It is being reviewed by some the biggest money out there. We are not talking about odd lot traders here. We are talking about significant institutional money that now has a road map of what has happened to gold and why it has not risen these past years.

More and more large investors are realizing GATA is right and comprehending the implications of our evidence and analysis. As I keep reiterating, who wants to pass up a trade in which the downside risk is $15 and the upside is $500 to $1,000.

The Howe/Bolser report is giving more and more investors the confidence to step up to the plate.

The open interest on Comex dropped 2726 contracts yesterday and now stands at 180,754 contracts. That is good news as it took some of the recent froth out of the market. Having it decrease that much on a reasonable down day is also a positive.

One other market plus: the dollar strengthened during the day as did the US stock market. Neither of those developments had any effect on the gold price.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.35, PM $2.13, with world gold at $323.45 and $324.10. Adequately above legal import level. The rupee helpfully closed at a 2002 high today, cheapening Indian gold. "…some re-emergent physical demand has already been reported out of India." notes HSBC in their daily comment (courtesy Ross Norman’s invaluable http://www.thebulliondesk.com/default.asp?load=true.

Getting gold down much from these levels will take considerable effort.

Japan, however, continues to give little help. With no yen leadership (the currency hardly moved in Tokyo today) and $US gold discouraging, mild liquidation has resumed. On volume equivalent to 17,769 Comex lots, open interest slipped by 874 Comex equivalent. Most observers in Japan look to Iraq to re-ignite gold: in fact, a resumption of last week’s yen slide holds more promise. (NY yesterday traded 39,894 lots, with open interest contracting (at last) by 2726 contracts.)

"Hedge funds hounded out some of the staler longs in the gold market in New York overnight" adding the interesting detail that there "was a slight tightness creeping into near-term lease rates, which were last quoted at around minus 0.02 percent, down from around flat two days ago."The only thing I can think is that in the short term there may be some people trying to short gold ...they might have taken a temporary short position to hold through December and January," a trader said."

This is the first sign of life in lease rates for several weeks.

Bullion Bank dealers are quite aware of the robust character of the physical market ("The physical market would welcome technical weakness and we would expect to see good buying interest between $322 and $318." says Standard London, hopefully.) Equally they and no doubt the predator hedge funds are aware of the overbought spec. long in NY. No one seems to quite know what to do – volume today has been very light.

To nobody’s surprise, gold’s surge has provoked yet another Bundesbank rumbling about selling Germany’s gold reserves. In fact this might be construed as a mildly positive version, as the perpetrator this time, Buba President Ernst Welteke, firmly committed himself to the idea of using only the interest on the proceeds. This might create a significant log jam when the Washington Accord runs out in almost two years.

Andy of course has a party on the strength of this story: his remarks on the ECB voting rules are worth reading.

Probably the most significant gold (& FX) story of the last 24 hours appeared in a Bloomberg column by William Pesek (see below). He maintains that China’s trade counterparties are about to force a major currency revaluation on China, which could certainly cause considerable upheaval. There is even the theoretical possibility that the Bank of China – and the Chinese public – might respond by increasing gold purchases!

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Commentary. William Pesek Jr. is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.

12/09 01:53
New Plaza Accord Afoot for China`s Currency?:

By William Pesek Jr.

Tokyo, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- With China sucking up a growing share of global trade, markets are buzzing about a move to realign the world`s biggest currencies against China`s.

A Plaza Accord-like deal to reduce the yuan`s competitiveness seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. It`s long been a third- rail issue for Beijing, which pegged the yuan at 8.3 to the U.S. dollar in 1993 and hasn`t budged since.

What`s changed is China`s role in the global economy -- and its success in wrestling business away from Japan and the U.S. China also appears to be pursuing a more moderate foreign policy, perhaps to reduce hostility toward its surging economic influence. Beijing could gain diplomatically from being flexible.

In Tokyo, yuan-related tension is on display as rarely before, with Ministry of Finance officials calling on Beijing to boost the yuan, effectively reducing China`s competitiveness. ``Surely, the yuan is too weak, when we consider the current strength of the country,`` Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said last week.

Shiokawa added that the issue of ``imbalances`` among the dollar, euro, yen and yuan may be discussed early next year at a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrialized nations. The yen, he argued, is too strong given economic yardsticks such as purchasing power.

``If there is such an imbalance, we should try to think of policy solutions to rectify it,`` he said.

U.S. Reticent

Washington has been far more reticent on the issue, though Chinese officials admit the U.S. may be interested in revaluation. ``I personally feel some pressure, and this is something the U.S. is pondering,`` Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said last month. ``It`s a sensitive issue.``

The ouster of U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill tosses another wild card into the mix. While O`Neill showed little interest in rejiggering currency rates, there`s no telling his replacement won`t feel differently. A lower dollar versus the yuan could help the world`s biggest economy.

Talk of a ``China Accord`` raises many questions, not the least of which is how to engineer it. Even if Beijing were willing, it`s not a member of the G-7, which makes it even harder to pull off logistically. It was the then-Group of Five nations that hammered out the Plaza Accord in 1985.

That deal, which boosted the yen and European currencies versus the dollar, stands as one of the most fascinating episodes of global policy coordination. It`s not clear what framework exists to exact such a pact with China. Communist Party bigwigs may fear it would be seen as a sign of weakness. They might be seen as kowtowing to the economic elites in the G-7.

Boost for China

The pluses for China are clear enough. A yuan revaluation could catapult China`s economy past a number of the world`s biggest. Overnight, China`s economy could arguably become larger than France`s or the U.K.`s and assume the No. 4 position. The increase in status that alone would bring may be enough for Beijing to work with the G-7.

A stronger yuan also would make it cheaper for China to amass oil reserves. And Beijing would get continued control over its currency policy. Any deal to revalue the yuan wouldn`t mean letting it float freely. Doing so would mean losing a key pillar of control over the Chinese economy, and odds are that won`t happen for years.

But the risks of a yuan-policy change may outweigh the benefits for China. A firmer currency could slow exports and complicate Beijing`s goal of growing at least 7 percent a year. Anything less, Chinese officials reckon, will complicate the transition from socialism to capitalism, which is expected to toss tens of millions out of work.

Unprecedented Shift

There`s little precedent for what China is trying to do. Its 1.3 billion people are entering a global economy that`s interconnected as never before. It will be quite a shock when more and more overstaffed, state-own companies go bust or get privatized. Changing the yuan`s value might only make things harder for Beijing.

Yet pressure on China to do something could grow if the U.S. current account deficit -- which is nearing 5 percent of the economy -- keeps widening. Even though China now accounts for a bigger portion of the U.S. trade deficit than Japan -- more than 21 percent -- it has escaped the Japan-bashing of the 1980s.

Chinese exports, which jumped 33 percent last month alone, lead the world. Increasingly, corporate earnings reports are showing how huge U.S. exporters such as General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG`s Chrysler unit are losing market share at home to imports. In the 1980s, such trends fueled rancor between the U.S. and Japan.

Beijing`s Bet?

Should trade tensions arise, China almost certainly would be pressured to accelerate market-opening efforts as part of its World Trade Organization membership. Policy makers in Beijing could always roll the dice with a yuan revaluation, hoping the goodwill gesture would avoid trade friction.

Chinese officials also might find such a preventive step preferable to a dollar crash that unleashes waves of volatility through international markets. Ditto for officials in Frankfurt, Tokyo and Washington. A stronger yuan may be less destabilizing than a weaker yen, which by default pushes up the dollar.

Beijing`s currency policy is a huge issue in Asia. When you ask finance ministers, central bankers or businesspeople about a weaker yen, you`re likely to be told China`s exchange rate is as, or more, important to them. Hence the gravity of an issue that`s likely to preoccupy investors for some time.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[schmithi]

[mickym [VIP]]

Ja, die Richtung stimmt.

Schaun wir mal, ob die Veröffentlichung des US-Leistungsbilanzdefizits die Erwartungen übertrifft.

Gruss Mic

[bluemoons]

Editorial: An den Rohstoffmärkten ist 2003 ein starkes Anschwellen der Spekulationsbereitschaft zu erwarten (12.12.2002)

In Ausblicken auf das neue Jahr an den Rohstoffmärkten sollte auch eine Einschätzung der spekulativen Tätigkeit nicht fehlen. Wohlgemerkt: Spekulation ist für uns kein "dirty word". Denn ohne diesen Part würden vor allem die Termin- und die Optionsmärkte, zum Teil aber auch die Kassamärkte nicht funktionieren. Die Spekulation ist bereit, Risiken zu übernehmen, die kommerzielle Marktteilnehmer nicht tragen wollen oder können. Die Spekulation akzeptiert diese Rolle aber nur wegen der Aussicht auf hochprozentige Gewinne. Auch das ist sinnvoll, denn wer sein Kapital ohne eine Chance von mindestens 51 zu 49 aufs Spiel setzt, sollte gleich ins Casino oder an den Pokertisch gehen.

Dies zur Spekulation, ohne jedoch zu übersehen, dass sich nicht wenige kommerzielle Marktteilnehmer meist oder gelegentlich verhalten, als gehörten sie ins Lager der Spekulanten. Dies ist legitim und mitunter auch sinnvoll. Sie spekulieren, um ihre Finanzergebnisse aufzubessern. Das nennt man hierzulande schon seit Urzeiten den "Hamburger Hedge". In London ist es der "Londoner Hedge" und in Chikago natürlich der "Chikagoer Hedge" - und so weiter und so weiter...

Doch schon 2002 hat sich deutlich abgezeichnet, dass die Rolle der Spekulation an den Märkten für Derivate zu gewissen Zeiten eine dominierende Rolle einzunehmen beginnt. Das kann ein vorübergehendes Phänomen sein und damit erklärt werden, dass die konjunkturellen Bedingungen den kommerziellen Part an den Märkten spürbar kürzer treten ließen. Damit mangelte es der Spekulation an "natürlichen Gegnern" und ließ so ihren Einfluss wachsen.

Es ist aber auch möglich, dass die Finanzkraft der Spekulation überproportional zugenommen hat. Dafür spricht einiges. Da die Aktienmärkte wahrscheinlich auf Jahre hinaus ausgereizt sind und bei weitem keine so hohen Gesamtrenditen mehr bieten dürften wie seit 1982 und weil die Anleihemärkte wohl auch keine verlockenden Ergebnisse mehr hervorbringen werden, ist die Suche nach "alternativen Investments" angebrochen.

Dieser neu geschöpfte Begriff wird 2003 die Runde machen und das Interesse gewöhnlicher Anleger auf die Rohstoffmärkte lenken. Der Prozess ist bereits in Gang gekommen, seit sich sogenannte Hedge-Fonds einem bereiteren, weniger finanzkräftigen Publikum öffnen. Er wird sich im neuen Jahr wahrscheinlich drastisch verstärken.

Wer professionell mit den Rohstoffmärkten zu tun hat, muss sich daher bei seinen Dispositionen auf eine wachsende Beteiligung der Spekulation einstellen. Seine Überlegungen werden sich nicht mehr ausschließlich auf die jeweils gegebenen fundamentalen Bedingungen stützen dürfen, sondern die Beobachtung der spekulativen Aktivitäten wird einen immer größer werdenden Raum beanspruchen.

2003 wird also nicht nur Vorsicht, sondern vor allem Umsicht geboten sein, wenn Operationen an diesen Märkten Erfolg versprechen sollen.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber

Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

Regierungswechsel könnte den Goldpreis beflügeln

Spekulanten setzen auf Abkehr von "Politik der Dollar-Stärke"


hi. FRANKFURT, 11. Dezember. Im Grunde hatten sich Händler auf ein recht ruhiges Jahresende am Goldmarkt eingestellt. Ihre Preisprognosen für das neue Jahr waren abgegeben, und es hatte es den Anschein, als würde auch die Spekulation keine größeren Sprünge mehr wagen. Doch mit dem Wechsel im Amt des amerikanischen Finanzministers und des führenden Wirtschaftsberaters von Präsident Bush kam es doch anders: Der Goldpreis zog binnen einer Woche in der Spitze etwa 13 Dollar je Feinunze an und verfehlte das im Mai verzeichnete zyklische Hoch von rund 330 Dollar nur um Haaresbreite. Inzwischen fielen die Notierungen zwar wieder auf gut 323 Dollar zurück, doch die Haussiers sitzen in den Startlöchern.

Anlaß dafür ist die These, der Austausch an der Spitze des Finanzministeriums in Washington kündige eine veränderte offizielle Haltung zum Dollar an. Die bislang immer wieder erklärte "Politik des starken Dollar" werde höchstwahrscheinlich aufgegeben, weil sie zum Nachteil der amerikanischen Wirtschaft und der bereits stark defizitären Leistungsbilanz sei. Zwar glaubt niemand, daß die Regierung Bush eine etwaige Absicht, den Dollar zu schwächen, offen bekanntgeben würde, doch stellen sich Analysten und Devisenhändler auf eine graduelle, aber nachhaltige Abwertung ein.

Wenn Washington die "Politik eines nicht mehr so starken Dollar" einschlagen sollte, könnte dies für den Goldmarkt zu einem der bedeutendsten Ereignisse seit Jahren werden, erklären Händler. Gold verhalte sich nämlich zum Dollar wie eine andere Währung. Nennenswerte Dollarschwäche, vorzugsweise gemessen am handelsgewichteten Dollar-Index, läßt den Goldpreis aller Erfahrung nach mehr oder minder deckungsgleich steigen. Ein steigender Dollar hingegen bewirkt meist eine ungefähr entsprechende Schwäche des Goldpreises. Händler bezeichnen dies als die zwar offiziell aufgegebene, im realen Marktgeschehen aber immer wieder in Erscheinung tretende monetäre Komponente des Goldes.

Anleger, die in Euro rechnen, dürfen sich also nicht wundern, wenn ihre Engagements in physischem Gold keine Wertgewinne oder Verluste zeigen, obwohl die Schlagzeilen von einem stark steigenden Goldpreis künden. Denn der Goldpreis wird in Dollar ausgedrückt: Einem steigenden Goldpreis könnte dann ein fallender Dollar-Kurs gegenüberstehen.

Händler halten es für möglich, daß interessierte Kreise während der umsatzschwachen Feiertage versuchen, den Goldpreis über die charttechnisch als bedeutsam geltende Marke von 330 Dollar zu treiben. In diesem Fall könnten spekulative Folgekäufe rasch für einen Anstieg in den Bereich zwischen 350 und 365 Dollar sorgen, heißt es. Doch dann stellt sich die Frage, wie sich die Produzenten verhalten. Sie könnten einen solchen Preisanstieg als verlockend genug betrachten, um ihre Sicherungs- und Vorausverkäufe wieder aufzunehmen. In diesem Fall würde sich das physische Angebot erhöhen, während vor allem die in Dollar rechnenden Schmuckhersteller ihre Nachfrage einschränken dürften.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 12.12.2002, Nr. 289 / Seite 21

[ThaiGuru]

Gold rockets higher on:

1. Weak USD fall sharply below 105

2. Unemployment claims surge by 83,000

3. OPEC agrees to reduce output

4. NatGas storage falls sharply approaching lows (see link)

5. Reports that Iraq may have supplied VX nerve gas to al Qaeda

6. North Korea rejects agreement and restarts nuclear operations

7. Israeli insurgents kill 7 Palestinians in Hebron

8. Placer Dome announces they will reduce hedges

And gold only moves about $6.50 an ounce higher. It`s a start.

- Black Blade

Besserbekannt unter dem Namen Jon Warner (Afternoon Gold Report)

[ThaiGuru]

December 12 - Gold $331.10 up $6.50 - Silver $4.72 up 10 cents

Gold Takes Out $330, Wall Street Remains Clueless

Boy, it was fun writing in the gold price above. Yeehah! The party is just getting started.

When a market finally moves like this, the natural question is to ask what happened and why. We don’t always know these things right away, but for those who want a refresher, I suggest reviewing the last seven or eight MIDAS commentaries. It is all laid out. You can go back even further and review my "pounding the table" bullish commentaries of a couple of months ago.

There are some noteworthy points and FACTS to bring to your attention:

*Gold has gone almost straight up since the Howe/Bolser report was published.

*Gold has gone almost straight up since Treasury Secretary O’Neill was fired. O’Neill ran the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

*Commodity prices have begun to surge again with the CRB closing at 233.64, up 1.25, another multi-year high.

*Gold is leading the dollar lower again. It was gold that led the dollar lower the first half of the year. It has been my contention it would do so again and that is just what is happening. The dollar closed today at 104.53, which is still above its 104 low, while gold blew through its highest close of last May by $4.

*As oft mentioned here, MIDAS always said gold would roar up with the specs mega-long and The Gold Cartel/commercial crowd mega-short. Again, that is exactly what is happening.

*The physical market is so strong, it is snuffing out the cabal. As MIDAS suspected, buyers (especially the Indians) were willing to pay up to get their gold. That is very rare for them. Once that was apparent today, the specs poured in. The logic was simple. The downside risk became minimal once it was known there were huge physical buy orders right below the market. The path of least resistance then became higher, Gold Cartel or no.

*Sources tell me the Swiss have told bullion dealers they will not roll over their gold loans anymore. When they mature, they want their gold back. This may explain why Morgan Stanley has been such a big buyer recently.

*There are some big option book problems out there. Word to me is certain entities need to buy gold to cover their call option exposure on the upside. In essence, it is a delta hedging issue. As gold rises in price, certain dealers and gold producers need to buy in to cover their liabilities (Newmont may have this problem, for example).

The Comex open interest rose 3673 contracts yesterday and now stands at 183,480 contracts. In recent past commentaries, I have mentioned the change of the trading pattern and that gold was trading like a real market again. All that meant was there were enough buyers these days to take on the powerful crooks capping the market. The fact that the open interest fell on the down day two days ago and rose yesterday by about the same amount on an up day is another constructive sign.

Is Wall Street pitiful, or what! Gold breaks out into multi-year new high ground in stunning fashion and not one of the New York bullion dealers is publicly bullish. They are either incredibly inept, stupid, very crooked, or all three. What do they tell their clients?

Morgan Stanley was a featured buyer again today. Remember when mamby-pamby Barton Biggs, their senior market strategist, appeared on CNBC and said gold could go to $500? Then, he came back the next morning saying he didn’t really know what he was talking about. Somebody in the cabal obviously got to him and told him to retract what he said. What a bad lot this Gold Cartel is.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Dec 12 2002

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.84, PM $2.44, with world gold at $324.50 and $326.10. Slightly below and comfortably above legal import level. India, the world’s biggest gold consumer, appears to be a buyer in the mid $320s. Bad news for shorts.

TOCOM continued to be passive. On volume equal to 18,687 Comex contracts, 5.2% above yesterday, open interest was virtually static (up 208 Comex lots). The active contract rose 6 yen and $US gold fell 10 cents: the fact that the yen is up 70 bps since Tokyo’s close will probably offset the NY $US gold action; leadership is elsewhere. (Comex yesterday traded 23,001 contracts; open interest rose 3,107 to completely erase any moderation of last week’s buying.)

Today, overnight and early morning comments have been rendered obsolete by gold’s breakout attempt in the late morning in NY. Carrying the spot price to the highest level this year, on predictably heavy estimated volume of 58,000 contracts (almost 30% of which traded in the last half hour in an unsuccessful attempt to reverse the rally) this is certainly the most interesting development in many months.

Encouragingly, like yesterday the gold equities have continued to rise after in Comex close, a rare and very positive development.

JB

[Hustensaftschmuggler]

Soll noch mal einer sagen im deutschen Blätterwald sei keine Rede von GOLD:



Rohstoffe

Gold klettert munter auf ein Fünf-Jahreshoch

12. Dezember 2002 Es war eine schwere Geburt. Über mehrere Monate hinweg schien es so, als ob der Goldpreis nicht mehr richtig vom Fleck kommen sollte. Doch nun hat die Verschnaufpause offenbar ein Ende. Mit dem größten Preissprung seit dem 7. August ging es mit den im Februar fälligen Gold-Futures am Donnestag in der Spitze um 6,60 Dollar auf 332,10 Dollar je Feinunze nach oben. Damit hat die Notiz ihren höchsten Stand seit Oktober 1987 und damit seit über fünf Jahren errreicht. Insgesamt hat der Goldpreis in diesem Jahr schon um 19 Prozent zugelegt, was ebenfalls seit 1987 die beste Performance des Edelmetalls bedeutet.

Für den in dieser Woche deutlich gestiegenen Goldpreis lassen sich gleich mehrere Gründe anführen. Der wichtigste Antriebsfaktor am Donnerstag war sicherlich der ausgesprochen schwache Doller, der sowohl zum Euro als auch zum Yen an Boden verlor. Für die Nachfrage nach Gold ist das deshalb günstig, weil Gold nun einmal in Dollar bezahlt wird und der Einkauf für die meisten Marktteilnehmer bei einem fallenden Dollar günstiger wird.

Andere Anlageoptionen haben ihren Glanz verloren

Nicht erst seit gestern wirken sich zudem die vielen globalen Unsicherheiten positiv auf den Goldpreis aus. Bei Krisenherden wie dem Irak kann das Edelmetall seinen Status als sicherer Hafen ausspielen. Hinzu kommt die Tatsache, dass seit März 2000 mit Aktien per saldo nicht wirklich Geld zu verdienen war und alternative Anlageoptionen dadurch interessanter geworden sind. Denn wenn man befürchten muss, mit Aktien sogar Verluste einzufahren, dann fällt es weniger stark ins Gewicht, dass Gold abgesehen von möglichen Preissteigerungen zunächst einmal keine Dividenden oder Zinsen abwirft.

Diese Erfahrung hat anscheinend auch Harvey Stack, Inhaber von Stacks Coin Co. gemacht, dessen Geschäfte mit Gold im letzten Jahr um 15 bis 20 Prozent zugenommen haben, wenn er verrät: "Die Leute kaufen Gold, weil sie merken, dass andere Investments nicht mehr stabil im Wert sind." Das wiederentdeckte Interesse an Gold zeigt sich auch am deutlich gestiegen Absatz von American Eagles Gold. Der monatliche Verlauf dieser Munzen betrug seit Juli 38.200 Unzen, was drei MAl so viel ist wie in den ersten sechs Monaten des Jahres.

Sollte Gold das eroberte Kursniveau verteidigen können, dann winken weitere Kursgewinne. Charttechnisch motivierte Anleger dürften dann die Chance auf weitere Preissteigerungen wittern. Und in der Tat wäre bei einem anhaltenden schwachen Dollar der Weg frei bis zur nächsten Zielzone, die grob gesprochen von 338 bis 360 Dollar reicht.

Gold als Depotbeimischung macht derzeit durchaus Sinn

Wie immer machten sich die Preisbewegungen beim Goldpreis noch deutlicher bei den Kursen der Goldminenaktien bemerkbar. Die Notiz des weltgrößten Goldproduzenten Newmont Mining stieg um 4,11 Prozent auf 28,11 Dollar und andere Firmen, wie etwa die südafrikanische Durban Deep Roodeport, die wegen geringeren Absicherungsgeschäften noch stärker von einem steigenden Goldpreis profitieren, kamen sogar noch deutlicher voran. Bei Durban Deep betrug das Kursplus beispielsweise im US-Handel 12,40 Prozent auf 4,26 Dollar.

Auch die Gold-Indizes zeigten Wirkung. So kletterte der CBOE Gold Index um 7,37 Prozent auf 60,87 Punkte und der Amex Gold Bugs Index um 8,10 Prozent auf 136,87 Zähler. Da sich der Index damit seit Oktober 2000 in etwas vervierfacht hat, zeigt das eindrucksvoll, wie lukrativ ein Engagement in Gold zuletzt war. Da die Eingangs genannten Gründe, die für Gold sprechen, mit einiger Wahrscheinlichkeit noch eine Weile Bestand haben werden, könnte es durchaus Sinn machen, sich die ein oder andere gut geführte Goldminenaktie oder einen der besten Goldminenfonds (der Fonds PEH Q-Goldmines hat zum Stand 5. Dezember in einem Jahr beispielsweise um über 64 Prozent zugelegt) ins Depot zu legen. Der seit 1981 gültige Abwärtstrend beim Goldpreis ist jedenfalls eindeutig überwunden, was charttechnisch gesehen als ein sehr gutes Zeichen zu werten ist.



Im Chart sehen Sie die Entwicklung des Amex Gold Bugs Index in den vergangenen fünf Jahren.

Text: @JüB

[ThaiGuru]

@Hustensaftschmuggler

Na wenn das kein positiver Bericht ist für`s Gold.

Und noch dazu in der Frankfurter Allgemeinen.

Schätze einige hundert Kilo physisches Gold zusätzlicher Nachfrage könnte der Artikel schon bewirken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://highmarkfunds.stockpoint.com/highmarkfunds/newspaper.…

Argentina Won`t Repay $726M to World Bank

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Dec 12, 2002 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Argentina said Thursday it will not make a debt payment of $726 million owed to the World Bank - a move likely to deepen its rift with the international financial community.

Armando Torres, an Economy Ministry spokesman, said the government had decided to suspend the debt payment after negotiations over a financial aid agreement with the International Monetary Fund stalled.

"It will not be paid because we have not been able to reach an aid agreement with the IMF," Torres said.

It is the second time in less than a month that the cash-strapped country will fail to meet its World Bank debt obligations, meaning it stands to lose its sole source of foreign financing and deepen its economic isolation.

The decision also is likely to complicate 11-month-old talks over renewed aid with the IMF.

The failure to pay "implies that IMF negotiations have become even more complex. We would not be surprised if they came to a complete stop," wrote Jose Barrionuevo, an economist at Barclays Capital, in a report Thursday.

Earlier in the day, Argentine officials appealed to the IMF to speed up talks on a possible aid accord, insisting an agreement could help the country head off a damaging debt default.

"If the IMF would facilitate an accord, Argentina could move more quickly to cancel its debts with multinational credit organizations," said Cabinet Chief Alfredo Atasanof. "Otherwise, the talks are going to get more complicated."

President Eduardo Duhalde has been hard-pressed to use the country`s diminished reserves to pay off its burdensome debt obligations. Over the next 14 months, Argentina faces debt payments to international creditors totaling more than $16 billion. Argentine reserves currently stand at $10 billion.

After entering into default with foreign investors last year, Argentina has relied on the World Bank money to help fund social programs and finance business as it struggles to emerge from a four-year recession.

But Duhalde`s decision last month to only partially meet a separate $805 million payment to the World Bank raised tensions between Buenos Aires and multilateral lenders in Washington.

World Bank and IMF officials have repeatedly called on Argentina to avoid stumbling on its obligations to keep open its sole remaining financial lifeline.

The IMF halted loans to the country last December, forcing the government into the largest default on foreign debt in history. Argentina halted payments on most of its $141 billion in foreign debt.

By KEVIN GRAY Associated Press Writer

Copyright 2002 Associated Press, All rights reserved

[keepitshort]

ein grosses Lob
an FAZ.net

die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ist Tagesaktuell

die Leute vom Sender N-TV
sollten vielleicht die FAZ-Zeitung lesen.

[jens11]

THE *REAL* VALUE OF A GOLD COIN

Posted By: lawgiver1
Date: Wednesday, 23 October 2002, 10:16 p.m.

It doesn`t take a rocket scientist to see that the COMEX and other international gold exchange markets are reflections of manipulation, false sales reports, and good old-fashioned price fixing. Supposedly, an ounce of gold was worth about $312 privately issued paper Federal Reserve Notes as of today. In reality, this is a scam to put the value of REAL money on a level with FAKE money.

For any sceptic to my statement, I challenge you to this simple test: Take an American Gold Eagle coin of any face value denomination (or any other gold coin, such as a British Sovereign) to your local merchant and offer to
pay your bill with it. My own recent test to the REAL value of gold involved an auto shop where my 4 new brakes, extensive tune-up, coolant flush, oil change, and wheel balance-rotation were to cost me $586.24 USD.

I went to the cashier`s window to pay my bill and laid on the counter a shiny 1999 1 oz. Gold Eagle coin as payment. According to the current market, the value of that coin is supposed to be worth about $320 FRN`s. The lady cashier looked at the gold coin and couldn`t take her eyes off it nor even speak! She was absolutely mesmerized and in a trance-like state, not even able to look at me! I asked her twice if she would accept real money, my gold coin, as payment for my car repairs. I finally got the reply "I`ll
have to check with the owner" as she picked up the telephone.

Minutes later, not only did the owner of the repair shop arrive, but so did many others. The word obviously got out quickly that some guy was trying to pay for his repair bill with REAL GOLD. They all silently stared at my gold coin as if it were the holy grail. I stood back and watched while they gazed at the coin. Finally, the owner looked at me and asked if I had a credit card or cash! I told him that a Federal Reserve Note was worth only the paper it was printed on and that I always pay what I owe in REAL money. He
looked at my gold Eagle again and then asked me how much it was worth. I replied that it`s REAL value is whatever he and I agree it is, not what someone else says it`s worth.

After about 10 minutes of sitting in the waiting lounge and reading old issues of Car & Driver, I think every employee came to view the "holy grail" gold coin at the cashier`s window. The owner of the repair shop finally came to me and asked if I would settle my bill with the gold coin if he paid ME $200 cash! I accepted his offer, pocketed two $100 FRN`s, and drove off. I found out a few days later, from a mechanic and friend who works there, that a bidding war was going on with some of the employees, but after the Service
Manager said he would pay $500 for the coin, the owner immediately offered me $200 FRN`s to keep the coin for himself.
Economically, I paid for a $586 repair bill with a $320 coin PLUS I pocketed an additional $200 FRN`s for the exchange. In reality and REAL VALUE, all my repairs cost me only $120. Because I used REAL money to pay for the repairs, the value of my gold coin in relation to the value of the FRN was about $4.88 FRN`s for each $1 of gold. If you were to apply that ratio to the fixed price of gold today at $312 FRN`s, the *REAL* value of gold should currently be $1,522.56 FRN`s.

This is also not the first time I`ve done this. Over the past year, I`ve gone to many local farmer`s markets with uncirculated Silver Eagle coins and received an exchange rate of up to 11:1! Of course, we`re talking about
vegetables here, but my point is even more important when one realises that I have bought 11 lbs. of asparagus using REAL money (silver) for the FRN price of 1 lb. If you think the price of gold or silver on the COMEX is what the REAL value is, do as I did and see how much your gold or silver coins are worth in the REAL world economy.

ECCLESIA.ORG

Messages In This Thread

aus: http://www.rumormillnews.net/cgi-bin/config.pl?read=24781

[derunsichtbarefreund]

zocker überall !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

war heute beim einkaufen. wollte wohnzimmergardinen erwerben. die jungs von ADO haben doch über nacht die preise um 20% erhöht. ihr wisst dich ADO..die mit der goldkante...

DUF

[mickym [VIP]]

DUF,
immer mit neuen Ideen, ADO-Vorhänge als Geldanlage.

[Gringo1]

15:10 2002-12-13

How Russian Gold Reserve Was Plundered

Investigation of embezzlement of 786 tons of gold lasts for half a year already. Russian Prosecutor’s Office already found the planes, countries and banks where the gold was delivered. The Soviet Union exported large oil supplies, earnings were exchanged for gold and never got back to the country; fourteen billion of dollars still remain unclaimed in Belgium. We know that so-called “shadow flows” at the rate of 20 billion dollars leave the country every year. However, no measures are taken to stop such crimes.

I know lots of detective stories, one of them concerns Russian Duma faction Yabloko. In accordance with the agreement on differentiation of authorities between Russia and the republic of Tatarstan of 1992, enormous oil supplies left Tatarstan. As a repay, 200 computers were sent to Tatarstan, but they never arrived to the republic. Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky preferred to hide for a month because of fear when the computers were stolen. In connection with this case and other facts, I can mention the assassination of Duma deputy Galina Starovoitova. Investigation of the crime is allegedly currently carried out, I also go to interrogations. But in fact, no measures are taken against the officials.

Let’s take Yegor Gaidar. It was he who was the author of the Chechen aviso made on 4 trillion rubles; this money was scattered about the country and sent to Siberia. Gold of the party and partially gold of artels was withdrawn from the country. The artels retained all gold within three years as the country experienced severe inflation, and gold always remained gold. But the gold was taken abroad, away from the country. However, Yegor Gaidar wasn’t brought into criminal account for such actions. Prosecutors are afraid to ask him questions concerning the case.

As for the money, it was used for privatization in the country. Those Supreme Council deputies who knew about the money, Vladimir Golovlev and Lezhnev are dead; Golovlev was assassinated in August this year. Investigator who carried out interrogations concerning gold of the party was killed at the same time.

Large supplies of oil, gold stolen from Magadan, Yakutia, Khabarovsk and silver from Russia’s Far East were withdrawn from the country; high-ranking officials such as Ministers for Internal Affairs Viktor Yerin, Andrey Dunayev, Anatoly Kulikov, Vladimir Rushailo were perfectly aware of the gold outflow. As a result of the criminal activity, 500 tons of gold were withdrawn from Russia, but no measures were taken in connection with the crime.

Finally, proceedings were instituted in connection with the gold withdrawing from the country; the investigation identified names of the pilots who removed the gold and the company involved into the operation. Two Il-76 planes removed gold to Latin America, Australia, Romania, England, Germany in batches of 40 or 15 tons within three years. The investigation already knows the banks and the countries where the gold is; certificates were written out for Belgium’s basic bank, Belgium Credit. Those people who were involved into the crime are already known; Vladislav Reznik from Unity faction was among them. Yegor Gaidar was also involved into withdrawal of Soviet gold. I am currently member of the Duma commission for corruption, that is why I’m not afraid to mention the facts.

I worked in the council on land reform under vice-president Alexander Rutskoy; being completely unaware of the whole of the situation, I concluded agreements with 88 gold artels of the Russian Federation. I was offered a preferential loan of the Central Bank. I distributed 1 trillion rubles in the prices of 1992 between the gold artels. The gold passed through my accounts. It was at the beginning of 1993, and inflation increased 300 times in 1995. In fact, the gold was laundered through me.

There was also the infamous case “Urozhai”, Vice-premier Gennady Kulik and other officials were involved in the case. The money was once again accumulated on my accounts. I was taken to prison in 1993; and in 1994-1995 the gold was removed from the country to the banks in Romania, England, Latin America. Certificates were written out to the bank Belgium-Credit. Now, I cannot make anyone bring the money back to Russia. Although I managed to prove everything, a special investigation group was created; several witnesses concerned with the gold case and one investigator are already killed. But the group is working on the case; special inquiries were sent to all banks. Some people were shocked when they learnt everything, and some still keep silent.

Everybody understands that a political will and a political order are necessary to bring everything back. But there is no will. And those who organized those gold deliveries are currently high-ranking officials, which certainly means that their names should be concealed.

Money obtained in that criminal gold operations were spent on construction of Moscow’s trading center Okhotny Ryad, of Slavyanskaya Hotel; this money is spent on financing of the Chechen war. The same financial schemes were used for privatization of state property objects.

The government and the Duma legislation committee know about the problem and admit its importance. However, no solutions of the problem are found yet. That is why I offer to pass a law that will probably allow to bring the withdrawn gold back to Russia and punish those who are guilty of the crime. The stolen resources belong to the Russian people. I don’t deny my guilt of the crime, as I compiled documents used for the gold withdrawal. Those who feel brave enough, must support the law I’m speaking about.

Sergey Shashurin
Member of the People’s Deputy group and
State Duma commission for struggle against corruption

The above mentioned text is the deputy’s speech at the Duma plenary session in November 2002

The legislation suggested by Sergey Shashurin was supported by 207 deputies (226 are required).

Translated by Maria Gousseva

[Farei]

Ha! das ist doch nur die nächste (goldgeschminkte) SAU die durch die Lemmingegemeinde getrieben wird!

siehe auch:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/threadpag…

[bluemoons]

Editorial: "Oh je, du Fröhliche ..." (13.12.2002)

Kurz vor dem Jahresende wird es doch noch sehr spannend an einigen Märkten. Rohöl zieht weiter an, Gold überwindet die Marke von 330 Dollar je Feinunze und erklimmt ein neues zyklisches Hoch, und der US-Dollar sackt ab.

Wie in den meisten Fällen, so folgen auch jetzt die Nachrichten wieder den Preisen. Dass die Opec auf ihrer Tagung vom Donnerstag etwas unternehmen musste, war allen klar. Sie hat sich auf einen sinnvollen Kompromiss verständigt. Das Abrücken von der bisherigen Gesamtfördermenge von 21,7 Millionen Fass täglich ist ein überfälliger Schritt zur Wiederherstellung der „Legalität“. Ob das Kartell damit an Glaubwürdigkeit gewinnt, bleibt abzuwarten. Die Chancen dafür sind nicht bestechend, denn die notorischen Quotenüberzieher werden den Ölhahn aller Erfahrung nach nicht freiwillig zurückdrehen.

Und da ist als Gegengewicht für den Markt noch Venezuela. Die innenpolitische Situation droht außer Kontrolle zu geraten. Ein Bürgerkrieg ist nicht mehr auszuschließen. Die Versorgung mit Öl und Ölprodukten von dort, die zu einem Großteil in die USA gelangen, erscheint für längere Zeit akut gefährdet. Und da ist noch der Irak-Konflikt, der wohl unabwendbar auf eine militärische „Lösung“ zusteuert. Kein Wunder, dass die Baissiers jetzt kalte Füße bekommen, ihre Positionen abdecken und neue Kaufengagements aufbauen.

Auch bei Gold ist die Spekulation sehr aktiv. Sie war es, die den Preis am Donnerstag auf das neue zyklische Hoch getrieben hat. Doch es ist keineswegs ausgemacht, dass die Notierungen zu diesem Zeitpunkt das höhere Niveau halten oder sogar weiter anziehen können. Dies wäre nur möglich, wenn der Dollar jetzt unmittelbar weiter unter Druck geriete. Merke: Gold verhält sich zum Dollar wie eine starke Währung. Doch dies alles kann in Tränen enden, wenn die Haussespekulation Gewinne mitzunehmen beginnt. Sie belastet den Goldmarkt inzwischen extrem stark.

Und zum Dollar schließlich fällt einem nur noch ein, dass es das Vernünftigste wäre, wenn die Regierung Bush ihn langsam abgleiten ließe. Doch das ist einfacher gesagt als getan. Der Devisenhandel wartet nur noch auf ein Signal, um im Greenback massiv short zu gehen. Wird es erteilt, droht ein Sturm am internationalen Devisenmarkt loszubrechen. Es könnte von asiatischen Zentralbanken ausgehen, die über ungesund hohe Dollar-Reserven verfügen und zunehmend geneigt zu sein scheinen, diese zu streuen. In Frage käme als wirkliche Alternative nur der Euro. Das zeigen schon die Größenordnungen, um die es geht.

Nach Lage der Dinge wird es vor der Feiertagsphase doch noch ungewöhnlich unruhig, wenn nicht gar turbulent an einigen Märkten. Und das setzt jetzt schon bedenkliche Zeichen für das neue Jahr.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

Kurz & Knapp: Devisen (12.12.2002)

Der Euro könnte sich 2003 nach Ansicht von Morgan Stanley auf 1,05 bis 1,08 US-$ befestigen, doch dürfte dies erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte geschehen.

Eine Flucht aus dem Schweizer Franken als Folge der jetzt wohl vor dem Ende stehenden Verhandlungen zwischen der EU und der Schweiz über die Behandlung "illegalen" EU-Kapitals in der Schweiz erwartet Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein nicht.

Einem schwächeren Yen dürfte der neue US-Finanzminister Snow weniger tolerant gegenüberstehen als der bisherige, heißt es unter Devisenhändlern.

Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

http://www.bremerlandesbank.de/index1.cfm?Bereich=1&Unterber…

[ThaiGuru]

@bluemoons

#3297

Das wird ja bestimmt lustig werden.

Die Japaner möchten einen schwachen Yen, damit sie konkurenzfähiger werden.

Die BoJ dürfte dafür gelegentlich Dollars kaufen, und Yen verkaufen.

Die Amerikaner wollen unter Snow, anscheinend einen schwächeren Dollar, also genau das Gegenteil von dem was die Japaner wollen.

Also werden die Amis (FED) vermutlich einfach weitere Dollars "entstehen lassen", damit die japanische Nachfrage nach Dollars befriedigt werden kann, und der Yen wird dadurch eher stärker als schwächer.

Da sollte ja eigentlich mindestens eine Interessensseite unterliegen.

Welche das wohl sein wird?[/u]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1247427-607…

Rocketing gold shares lift JSE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Alison Maltz

The JSE Securities Exchange South Africa was firmer at the close on Friday, after rocketing gold shares gave it a lift.

Trade was characterised by heavy volumes due to futures activity ahead of next week`s close out.

At the close, the all share index was up 0.34%. The gold mining index rocketed 5.74%, with the resources index rallying 1.34%. The rest of the market was in the red. The indi-25 and financial indices were down 0.75% and 0.39% respectively, the platinum miming index lost 1.19% and the IT index tumbled 3.16%.

The rand was trading at 8.7580 to the dollar from 8.9180 when the JSE closed on Thursday, while gold was quoted at US$332.35 an ounce from US$326.45 at the JSE`s previous close.

Volumes were substantial - over 4.5 billion rand worth of shares had changed hands.

A dealer said that it had been a volatile day on the local bourse. "The futures guys have been selling spot," he said, adding that one big seller from the futures side had boosted volumes.

"The rand is strong and that has thrown counters all over the place," he continued.

While London-listed diversified resources group Anglo American (AGL) ended up 1.27% or 1.50 rand at 119.20 rand, BHP Billiton (BIL) slipped 32 cents to 44.00 rand.

Platinum stocks were weaker, despite the fact that platinum broke above the US$600 an ounce level. AngloPlat (AMS) was down 2.21% or seven rand to 310.00 rand and Northam (NHM) lost 1.14% or 20 cents to 17.30 rand. Impala (IMP) was flat at 515.01 rand.

The stronger bullion price, which earlier in the day traded at a three-year high of $335.75, boosted gold stocks.

Gold Fields (GFI) gained 5.51% or 6.45 rand to 123.55 rand, AngloGold (ANG) advanced 4.57% or 25.00 rand to 572.00 rand and Harmony (HAR) ended 7.98% or 10.85 rand higher at 146.80 rand.

Mining house Kumba (KMB) plunged 6.25% or two rand to 30.01 rand.

The dealer said that the relatively strong oil price had seen Sasol (SOL) climb, although the share had come off its highs, even drifting into the red at one stage. At the close, Sasol was up 35 cents at 94.95 rand.

On the indi-25, decliners outnumbered advancers by almost three to one.

Leading the downside was telecommunications company MTN Group (MTN), which shed 3.54% or 45 cents to 12.25 rand. Its parent company Johnnic (JNC) lost 4.26% or two rand to 45.00 rand.

Swiss-listed luxury goods group Richemont (RCH) was down 5 cents at 15.94 rand.

On the upside, retailer Shoprite (SHP) was up 3.60% or 24 cents at 6.90 rand and London-listed beverages group SABMiller (SAB) was 20 cents stronger at 60.80 rand.

Steel producer Iscor (ISC) was up 1.36% or 20 cents at 18.60 rand.

Financials were mixed. Commercial bank FirstRand (FSR) fell 2.70% or 20 cents to 7.20 rand and specialist bank Investec Plc (INP) continued its bad run, losing 3.25% or 3.61 rand to 107.39 rand. Investec is down almost 12% this month.

However, life assurer Sanlam (SLM), which has been punished recently, bounced 2.65% or 20 cents to 7.75 rand. It is still down almost 9% this month.

I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20021213_481.html

Global Worries Spark Investor Gold Rush

Dec. 13

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) - Investor fears of war, terror and nuclear weapons kept the gold spot market close to three-year highs in European trade on Friday.

A cocktail of flaring political tensions, spiking oil prices and a drop in the value of the dollar sent the safe-haven metal within sight of a three-year-old high of $338.00.

"This is an unfolding huge bull market," said a U.S.-based metals broker.

Spot gold <XAU=> hit $335.25 an ounce in early European trade, rallying from its previous close in New York at $331.20/331.70.

But the market drifted back to $330.40/330.90 as the dollar edged off near three-year lows against the euro <EUR=> after a closely watched gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment shot up well above market expectations.

Bullion was set or "fixed" in the London afternoon session at $332.20 an ounce, off its morning fix of $333.50 as spot bullion gave up most of its gains.

"You`ve got the North Korea problem and you`ve got the Iraq problem," a Japanese-based broker said earlier. "But you also had a slightly softer dollar, which kept gains in check."

The October 2003 TOCOM contract <JAUV3> settled up 25 yen at 1,311 yen per gram, a level not seen by benchmark gold since early February, when the specter of financial crisis sent Japanese savers scurrying for safe assets.

Turnover was heavy as speculators snapped into action after bullion`s overnight rise to around three-year highs, pouring money into precious metals and energy futures.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

News that Washington was prepared to use nuclear weapons to respond to any Iraqi attack with weapons of mass destruction added to tensions, even as U.N. officials widened arms inspections that could determine war or peace in the Gulf.

The dollar shot lower against other major world currencies, surrendering half a percentage point to the euro, which rose to $1.0226 at 0920 GMT, and down to a one-month low against the Swiss franc -- another traditional safe haven.

The United States turned up the diplomatic heat after North Korea decided to reactivate a nuclear power plant.

"Japanese investors don`t care too much about world events," a brokerage analyst said. "But the North Korea problem is close to home, and that has fueled fears a bit."

The gold price has gained nearly 20 percent over this year as political instability has grown, economic uncertainty has battered equity markets and investor confidence has been severely bruised by a string of high-profile corporate accounting scandals.

Gold last reached $338.00 in October 1999 when 15 central banks, including those under the European Central Bank, and the UK, Sweden and Switzerland signed a pact to limit their lending and sales of metal for five years.

The Washington Agreement, as the deal signed in September 1999 was known, caused a surprise $70 spike in the price, which had been floundering near 20-year lows.

"The move to $338.00 was a very brief spike, this has been more of a gradual rise, and although this (rise to $335.00) is another spike, it is not as extreme. Needless to say, we could see $338.00 and buy-stops taken out at that level," the London trader said.

Limited central bank lending, coupled with a sharp decline this year in forward sales by the gold mining industry, has also contributed to the smoother rise in the price of gold.


Copyright 2002 Reuters News Service.

[ThaiGuru]

TheStreet.com

http://www.thestreet.com/

Part I

TSCOptions : Steven Smith

This Time, Gold Stocks` Luster Could Last

By Steven Smith
Staff Reporter

12/13/2002 01:12 PM EST



Gold bugs, who have chanted "wait till next year" since the metal fell off its $800-an-ounce pedestal some 23 years ago, finally had something to cheer about this year. In 2002, gold stocks were back on top, albeit against very weak competition.

While most market indices show double-digit losses for 2002, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU), at 75.39 on Dec. 12, is up 39.6% for the year to date. A weakening dollar and worries about geopolitical unrest have fueled the latest rally in recent days.

Gold investors must ask whether the run-up has been the result of improving fundamentals or whether it`s simply a flight to safety. Phrased differently: After this year`s rally, will gold mining and producing companies resume their long downward trend? Some see reasons for optimism.

"Gold will always hold attraction to speculators, but that`s proving to have diminishing bang," said David Mallalieu, an analyst with Scotia Capital. On the other hand, "Investing in gold through the mining and production business currently presents a great opportunity," with the biggest players owning strong balance sheets and the smaller ones looking ripe for acquisition.

Free Parking

A look at the this year`s XAU chart vs. the S&P 500 index shows that gold stocks did indeed rally while the broader market continued to fade, leading some to argue the gain is destined to be short-lived.

The flight-to-safety phenomenon has occurred numerous times, most notably during the stock market crash of 1987. That year, the XAU index shot from 75 to 160, but the gain didn`t last; the stock market stabilized, and the XAU sank below 90 by the beginning of 1988.

Could Not Travel Both

XAU vs. S&P 500



The XAU enjoyed a sustained bull market from 1993 to 1996 as the index rose from 65 to 150. Gold shares were supported at the time by the economic recession of the early 1990s, a threat of inflation with interest rates in the high single digits, heightened demand from the manufacturing sector, and improved margins due to industry consolidation. Gold itself remained stubbornly below $400, however, as many governments, most notably Britain and Mexico, decided to pare their reserves, providing a huge supply.

[ThaiGuru]

TheStreet.com

http://www.thestreet.com

This Time, Gold Stocks` Luster Could Last
Page 2

The Coming Tidal Wave

The XAU`s move over the past two years, from a December 2000 low of 42, appears to be mostly the result of asset allocation. As investors sought refuge from sinking technology shares, they have plowed money into perceived tangible safe havens such as precious metals and real estate. As a result, gold prices have rallied 39% to $333 over the past year. But the jump was from extremely depressed levels, the lowest in over a decade.

Now, with the stocks stabilizing, inflation nearly nonexistent and manufacturing demand slack, some worry that there are precious few reasons left for a sustained rally. John Bridges, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, notes: "Nearly 80% of gold goes into jewelry, with the other 20% for investment. I don`t see a rise in demand for jewelry, and there is only so far the investment piece of the equation can take us."

Indeed, the XAU already has tumbled some 15% since its May high. Four of the nine stocks that make up the index have slipped into the negative territory for the year, including Phelps Dodge (PD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), at $30.20, and Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), at $14.02 -- both down about 5% for the year.

But a few names still sport big gains: Anglogold (AU:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) added $2.30 Thursday, to $32.67, giving it an 80% gain year to date. Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) stands at $28.11 and is up 56% for the year, while Meridian Gold (MDG:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) is at $16.98, up 76% for the year.

Business and Pleasure

It`s important to distinguish the business of gold, its mining and production, from speculation in the raw commodity. An industry analyst provided a primer on the former. "It`s a three-stage process: $250 an ounce to find, $150 to mine and, depending on your efficiencies, anywhere from $100 to $350 to produce; that cost slides as the quality degrades from high to low."

Given a typical mine`s life cycle of 18 years, he figures the cost basis averages $225 per ounce (amortizing the discovery and production costs). That means that established companies such as Newmont, already drawing from established mines, can stay profitable as long as gold is above $300 an ounce.

Golden Years

Tracking London gold since 1975

Source: Kitco

Though gold`s $800-an-ounce glory days aren`t coming back soon, industry analysts point to some constructive fundamentals that could stabilize earnings at gold mining and producing companies. In his November report, Leo Larkin, an analyst with Standard & Poor`s, noted that low gold prices over several years have resulted in diminished production. This, coupled with an agreement in September by central banks, including the Bank of England and the Bank of Switzerland, to limit sales to 2,000 tons through 2004, should create a favorable supply/demand equation. He also thinks that consolidation will continue to lead to improved margins.

Barry Allan of Research Capital cites Barrick`s recent purchase of HomeStake Mining and Newmont`s "concerted effort to reduce debt" as resons for optimism.

"The large players are on solid financial ground, well-hedged and poised to take market share," Allan said. Still, he concedes, "earnings growth will remain in the midsingle digits" and may do worse if there is no economic recovery.

Another industry analyst, who requested anonymity, thinks a floor is in place for gold stocks. "The large players have become sophisticated to hedging techniques," he said. "As gold crosses $350, they`ll lock in 3%-6% earnings growth over the next few years."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…

Gold Touches Six-yr High Of Rs 5,400

Our Commodities Bureau

Mumbai, December 13: Gold prices on Friday crossed to touch a new high of $335.65-336 per troy oz levels, almost $10 up from previous levels. Sources here say at these levels gold was at five-and-a-half year high in euro terms and around four-year high in US dollar terms. The metal has gained 20 per cent this year. In rupee terms, the prices at around Rs 5,400 per 10 gm was considered to be a six-year high.

The strengthening euro against the weakening US dollar as also the impending fears of war between US and Iraq fuelled the sentiments in a relatively thin market. The US dollar fell to its weakest in almost three years against the euro and dropped against the yen on concern the pace of a rebound in the US economy is faltering.

Further, reports said that missiles found in the intercepted North Korean ship to Yemen was possibly for the use of terror attacks. Also, traders and institutional investors, expecting the gold prices to go down from earlier levels of around $325 levels had gone short but were caught unawares with the surging gold prices and accordingly were said to be covering their short positions further fuelling to strengthen the strong gold prices.

In the domestic market, however, the sentiments were not as fiery as in the international markets as demand was almost negligent which partially was reflected in the ten tola (TT) bars quoting at around Rs 63,500 (inclusive of import duty, octroi and other levies) was said to be available at a discount of around Rs 200-300.

The higher gold prices indicated that there would be some selling as was witnessed earlier when the gold scrap (existing jewellery) came out in open to be sold off at high levels.

“The prices have flared up because of the recent observations from the US that apart from Iraq even Iran has destructive war arsenal”, said a bullion market source. “These observations have fuelled the market sentiments and could soften a bit only if there are some assuring statements from the US government”, he added.

This however, seemed unlikely and the gold prices are likely to be at current levels at least till the year end, said bullion analyst Bhargav Vaidya.

The US-Iraq war fears, if turns into reality, could adversely impact global economies making gold all the more attractive, while the supplies of crude oil too would be affected.

The existing war premium has been firming up each day since the past couple of months. “However, if the government permitted export of gold (which is banned currently), a lot of gold could come out of the private hoarders to be sold and exported”, said an executive in charge of bullion desk of a leading bank.(Hat es sich vielleicht dabei um einen Executiv Manager von JPM-Morgen gehandelt, der einen Wunschtraum geäussert hat? TG)

With all these developments, the yellow metal has entered a new trading range and would not see the earlier levels of $320-325 per troy oz, said a bullion trader. It is after a long time such prices are seen and are likely to remain here at least for some more time, the trader said.

[ThaiGuru]

===========================================================================
Re: Chairman`s Corner - Friday, December 13, 2002
Gold Cup With Handle Breaks out to Upside
===========================================================================
Extremely Rare & Symmetrical Gold Cup with Handle Breaks Out to the Upside

This is a momentous occasion and something you may not see again
technically in your trading career. Not only is it rare to see this
formation, but rarer even to see any formation with such symmetry. The more
symmetrical a formation is, the more meaningful it is. The longer it takes
to construct a rare formation like this, the more meaningful the formation
is.

Now, IMO, not only is $348-$354 assured, but also that price will occur by Christmas.

A rare formation of this quality and time to construct indicates that my
fundamental conclusions are correct. Those conclusions mean that we are
early in a very long bull market in gold. The market is the final
arbitrator and it is there that my final report card will be delivered. The
drama of gold will have many acts and challenges, but it has $529 now
written on it.

I suggest you save the chart given to you this evening on the technical
review. In your career, whenever you see this again, in anything, you will
know what to do.


Click on following link to view chart:

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/12…

===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 TAN RANGE EXPLORATION CORPORATION (TSXV-TNX) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.tanrange.com/ or send mailto:[e-mail]
Message sent on Fri Dec 13, 2002 at 10:44:09 AM Pacific Time
===========================================================

[ThaiGuru]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9D9514CB%2…

PETER BRIMELOW



More disturbing `rarely used policies`

Commentary: Mysterious dealings are afoot

By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 12:06 AM ET Dec. 13, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks staggering, gold galloping -- what was that about taking "whatever means necessary" to keep things going?

Fed Governor Ben Bernanke made this now-famous remark on November 20. His speech has been reverberating ever since. It`s even caused bond baron Bill Gross to question his own market. (See my December 5 column).

Bernanke cited "several heretofore rarely used policies" that the Fed could use to stave off deflation. These involved direct intervention in various markets -- he even remarked that the Fed had ended the 1930s deflation by buying gold. (!!!)

Interventionist "rarely used policies" can work in the short-run. But in the long run, they do increase the risk of error. That was the story of the Fed`s "fine-tuning" in the 1960s -- a long boom eventually spun out of control into inflation and stagflation.

So it would be disquieting to find these "rarely used policies" have, in fact, been used.

Gold bugs are particularly vociferous about the possibility of "rarely used policies" being already deployed in their own much-mauled market (see November 11 column).

Recently they`ve been circulating a little-noted Nov. 25 speech by Charles Bean, chief economist of the Bank of England.

Apparently, central bankers travel in herds. Bean eerily echoed Bernanke`s argument that the authorities had ways of making the economy talk.

He said explicitly that, if keeping short-term interest rates at zero did not drive down longer-term interest rates, "if necessary, this could be complemented by outright purchases of longer-term government securities, or even in extremis operations in corporate debt and equity. "

Operations in corporate debt and equity? If necessary?

Which brings me to my earlier cryptic reference to Long-Term Capital Management, the troubled hedge fund which the Fed mysteriously bailed in out September 1998.

The bailout was mysterious because LTCM was simply not that big a deal. The Russian, Asian and S&L crises were orders of magnitude larger. Yet the Fed felt compelled to act.

Two subsequent books on the affair, Roger Lowenstein`s "When Genius Failed" and Nicholas Dunbar`s "Inventing Money," raised some interesting questions. LTCM had "strategic investors" that included government-owned banks. One participant, in a leaked memo, baldly stated that these relationships gave LTCM "a window to see structural changes" in the respective markets - i.e. insider information.

And one such "strategic investor," the Bank of Italy, it turns out, actually did employ one of those "rarely used policies:" LTCM functioned as its chosen instrument, window-dressing the troubled Italian government bond market through the massive use of financial derivatives.

"Government treated it as a valued partner," wrote Dunbar, a writer for Risk Magazine, "to be used whenever markets weren`t efficient enough to achieve macroeconomic goals." (I`ve scalped these points from my brother John Brimelow`s reviews of Lowenstein and Dunbar, which see for more detail).

That, perhaps, is why LTCM had to be bailed out.

Interestingly, a key player in all this was Goldman Sachs -- and Stephen Friedman, who was just appointed President Bush`s senior economic adviser.

Any more accidents out there waiting to happen?

[brezlbua]

@thaiguru

Sorry, aber mit Deiner Unterstreicherei erreichst Du vor allem, dass die Lesbarkeit der Texte deutlich erschwert wird. Altes gestalterisches Grundprinzip: Hervorhebungen sparsam einsetzen, und wenn, dann besser in Kursivschrift.

[loehle]

Dow - 1,2% und T-Bond-Fut. - 1%.
Haben die Amerikaner kein Geld mehr ?????

[ThaiGuru]

December 13 - Gold $333 up $1.90 - Silver $4.69 down 3 cents

What A Close! / Teacup Breakout / They Ain’t Seen Nuthin Yet

"This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."......Sir Winston Churchill

Speech given at the Lord Mayor`s Luncheon, Mansion House, London, November 10, 1942.

What a battle! Substantial buying emerged in overseas trading, for the reasons mentioned in yesterday’s MIDAS, taking gold all the way up to $336. The desperate Gold Cartel then counter-attacked, trying to keep gold below the all-important technical levels of $332 and $330. They had it near the lows with less than 20 minutes left (right above $330) when the buying herd showed up again with both barrels blazing. Gold turned right around in stunning fashion to close well above the two key technical points.

Why is $332 such a big deal?

Take a gander at this monthly gold chart and draw a line along the tops of the teacup (a Jim Sinclairism).

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M

Gold took out $332, or the top of the line, and closed above it. My brother Tim is a superb technician and has had this chart on his refrigerator for over a year. Even his two kids know about $332. Tim says that from a technical standpoint, gold should test $420 because of this close – for STARTERS! Short-term, there is decent resistance at $340. Then, it is Katy Bar The Door.

On the teacup breakout, from Jim Sinclair:

Chairman`s Corner - Friday, December 13, 2002
Gold Cup With Handle Breaks out to Upside
===========================================================================
Extremely Rare & Symmetrical Gold Cup with Handle Breaks Out to the Upside

This is a momentous occasion and something you may not see again technically in your trading career. Not only is it rare to see this formation, but rarer even to see any formation with such symmetry. The more symmetrical a formation is, the more meaningful it is. The longer it takes to construct a rare formation like this, the more meaningful the formation is.

Now, IMO, not only is $348-$354 assured, but also that price will occur by Christmas.

A rare formation of this quality and time to construct indicates that my fundamental conclusions are correct. Those conclusions mean that we are early in a very long bull market in gold. The market is the final arbitrator and it is there that my final report card will be delivered. The drama of gold will have many acts and challenges, but it has $529 now written on it.

I suggest you save the chart given to you this evening on the technical review. In your career, whenever you see this again, in anything, you will know what to do.

Click on following link to view chart:
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/12…

-END-

Comex open interest exploded, up 14,227 contracts to 198,088 contracts. The floor said the number was bearish. It may have been in the past when The Gold Cartel could do whatever they wanted with gold. Times have changed. The cabal and friends are getting shorter and shorter and weaker and weaker. What we have coming is a commercial signal failure, which will cause a short-covering buying panic.

Rumors were circulating in London in the gold world that the central banks are going to make some sort of announcement this weekend to quell the gold rally. What, after a $10 pop? That would be pathetic and could backfire. Certainly, any sort of official statement to knock the price of gold down would be one more affirmation of GATA’s assertions.

The CRB rocked again, closing at 234.71, up another 1.07 - almost a five-year high. But, there is no inflation!

The dollar closed lower at the pivotal 104 level, 103.98 to be precise. See the take on the dollar from Bridgewater Associates below in JB’s report.

The bonds finished almost a full point lower even though the market was weak.

The DOG tanked 37 to 1362, The DOW was hit for 104 points and ended at 8433. The S&P swooned to 889. All three finished below their key technical support points of 1400, 8500 and 900 respectively.

The set-up for a gold price explosion continues to get better and better.

Morgan Stanley was a huge seller of silver, keeping it from taking out its important resistance point of $4.75.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Dec 13 2002

Indian ex duty premiums: AM 40c, PM $1.89: with world gold at $332 and $333.90. Well below, and almost at, legal import point. Surprisingly robust performance, given the dimensions of the gold move. There are even reports from India of "stockists" – local bullion dealers – buying. More importantly, there are some stories of heavy demand for physical from neighbouring (e.g. War zone) countries.

Also an intelligent comment by HSBC:

"…we note that there has been a considerable volume of forced physical demand coming through on the highs. Some physical purchasing contracts have ‘unfixed’ terms, which allow the purchasing entity to defer execution of the deal within a certain time window …When prices rallied to USD328/oz last Friday and then started correcting lower earlier this week, it is evident that some physical delivery contracts were entered into on this ‘unfixed business’ – hoping to take advantage of a continued price correction. However, with the price rally gaining momentum the purchases have been executed at elevated levels."

(See http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/hsbc/gold_Dec13.pdf )

reminds one that the legalization of the Indian trade has substantially increased the credit-based instability of demand, just as the derivative exposure of the gold mines has created option book volatility, also said to be kicking in around this level.

In other words, there might be another gap up.

TOCOM also turned gold friendly last night: closing at a 10 month high, and not net selling into strength, as had been the recent pattern: Mitsui HK reports:

"On Tocom 2nd session opening, huge buying emerged on the Exchange, reversing the morning pattern and turning trading houses into buyers."

Open interest rose the equivalent of 709 Comex lots on 46,967 Comex equivalent volume – 151.3% above yesterday. The active contract rose 25 yen and $US gold rose $ 1.05 above NY. There is some discussion that North Korean misdemeanours upset the Japanese public more than event in the Gulf. Anything which dissuades the TOCOM public from selling is an important positive to gold. (NY yesterday traded 55,761 contracts: open interest rose 14,227 lots: this is serious.)

Whether this, the most powerful breakout attempt since the Washington Accord over three years ago, has actually succeeded, is, of course, somewhat a matter of how thick is one’s technical pencil. Martin Pring’s Weekly comment –attached – deserves attention (also for his stockmarket and $ view).

"The Dollar Index looks as though it is going to resolve its recent trading range by breaking to a new bear market low. In the last issue we said we were neutral bearish on the dollar… we can now…come out of the bearish closet."

"PRECIOUS METALS

The most important technical development in the last week has been the solid breakout in the gold (and silver) price. At this point the odds strongly favor higher prices for silver, gold and the gold shares."

"We are still very early in a major dollar sell-off. The US needs to attract 80% of the world’s available capital just to keep the dollar stable. The relative attractiveness of US capital has deteriorated to the point where it is extremely unlikely the US will be able to maintain the market share of world capital it needs to break even. In fact, foreign demand for the dollar has already begun to significantly decline… declining foreign demand for US assets will ripple through all US financial assets, and market participants trading those assets without a global perspective will likely be blindsided.. We would not be surprised at all to see a 30% decline in the dollar on a trade-weighted basis over the next two years."

"The following table shows some simple gauges of asset attractiveness across the major developed markets. We combine these measures into a simple asset attractiveness rank, and the US ranks dead last. With the least attractive assets in the developed world, is it realistic that the US will attract 80% of the world’s capital next year at current exchange rates?"

"Foreign ownership of US assets has recently risen dramatically. In 1990 foreign owned assets amounted to 33% of US GDP, but today they are valued at over 70% of US GDP. Foreigners own $2 trillion (19% of US GDP) more in US assets than we hold of theirs. If you take out the US treasuries held by the Fed, foreign ownership rises to 40%. Foreign ownership of the US equity market has risen as well and is now above 13% of the total US equity market. Foreigners also directly hold massive stakes in US companies. The value of these direct investments is estimated at 15% of GDP. Now foreigners hold a high percentage of all US. These holdings are so big and so much larger than US assets abroad that they are a long-term risk to US financial markets."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Gibt`s hier im Thread auch jemanden der der niederländischen Sprache mächtig ist?

Ein sehr positiver Bericht zum Gold Geschehen!

Dieser sehr interessante Bericht zum Goldgeschehen, in dem speziell der Howe/Bolser Report erwähnt wird, und von den 15000 ausgeliehenen und bereits am Gold Markt verkauften der Zentralbanken beim Gold ein Hauptthema ist, wurde an 200000 holländisch sprechende Investoren versandt, und ist auf der Homepage http://img.iex.nl abrufbar.

Von Goldpreis Unterdrückung, und zu erwartendem weiteren massiven Goldpreis Astieg, ist darin ebenso zu lesen. Die Charts die verwendet wurden, sind vom letzten Donnerstag.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.iex.nl/columns/columns_artikel.asp?colid=10802

Op naar de 700

Willem Middelkoop - 13 december 2002



Voor het eerst in vijf jaar brak goud gisteren door de 330 dollar-barrière. Dat dit meer is dan een toevallige psychologische grens, bewijst de koersontwikkeling van het afgelopen jaar. Liefst zeven keer waren onzichtbare krachten in staat de krachtiger wordende goudmarkt te keren.

De afgelopen zes maanden was maar één goudstrategie de juiste: verkoop alle posities rond een goudprijs van rond de 325. Wacht de correctie af en stap weer vol in op de steeds hogere bodem.

Zoals vrijwel elke strategie kan ook deze nu richting prullenmand. Door de indrukwekkende doorbraak van goud donderdag - grappig genoeg een half uur voor aanvang van de jaarlijkse IEX.nl-columnistenborrel - moeten we nu op zoek naar een nieuw handvat voor handelaren.

15.000 ton short

Wat zijn de feiten? Na een twintig jaar lange bearmarket heeft goud een stevige bodem gelegd in de afgelopen twee jaar. Na een gezonde stijging in het afgelopen jaar brak, zoals gezegd, goud gisteren voor het eerst in vijf jaar door de roemruchte 330 dollar-barrière.



De opvallende verdedigingswal tussen 325 en 330 dollar was voor steeds meer analisten reden Gata`s verhaal over marktmanipulatie te ondersteunen. Kon die theorie een aantal maanden nog worden weerlegd met de kop Zotten met goudcomplotten, inmiddels is zelfs voor de grootste sceptici duidelijk te lezen hoe de manipulatie te verklaren is.
De publicatie Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate van begin december, toont aan dat Westerse centrale banken hierin een rol spelen. Bovendien wordt duidelijk dat de manipulatie bestond uit het opbouwen van shortposities. De laatste schattingen op basis van het rapport gaan uit van 15.000 ton wereldwijd. Dat is bijna vier keer de totale wereldjaarproductie.

Wat zijn nu de gevolgen van de doorbraak door de 330 dollar? Het is slecht nieuws voor alle partijen die deze shortposities bezitten. Zij moeten nu om verliezen te beperken en de afdeling riskmanagement buiten de deur te houden posities gaan sluiten, omdat verliezen anders onaanvaardbare proporties aannemen.



Slim geld
Deze ontwikkeling ondersteunt de goudprijs. Goudmijnen zijn zelf als eerste het afgelopen jaar goud gaan terugkopen om shortposities te sluiten. Veel mijnen hadden namelijk toekomstige productie gehedged, om zich in te dekken tegen een dalende goudprijs. Deze ontwikkeling zet zich nu versneld voort.
Een mogelijke shortsqueeze, waarbij de goudprijs in korte tijd sterk stijgt, is hierdoor goed mogelijk. Voor zilver geldt een vergelijkbaar verhaal. Bovendien komt er nu pas structureel belangstelling voor goud uit de professionele beleggingshoek. Dat banken en vermogensbeheerders de goud-bullmarket negeren en marginaliseren is niet langer te verdedigen.

Beleggers willen nu eenmaal rendement en vragen hun bank of vermogensbeheerder steeds vaker hoe het met de rendementen op edelmetaal zit. Tot nu toe zat alleen het zogenaamde slimme geld in goud en zilver. Zo bezit Microsoft-topman Bill Gates, net als superbelegger George Soros, de helft van een grote zilvermijn.



Richting 350 dollar

Een minieme verschuiving van de 5000 miljard dollar in Amerikaanse beleggingsfondsen zorgt al voor een enorm effect op de minieme goudmarkt. Alle goudmijnen ter wereld kunt u kopen voor 50 miljard dollar. In eerste instantie kan goud nu richting 350 dollar lopen. Een mooi punt om winst te nemen en rustig te kijken of goud de verwachte langjarige bullmarket voorzet.

Wie wil weten hoe lang deze bullmarket duurt, moet even kijken naar onderstaande grafiek. Het toont de verhouding tussen de stand van de Dow Jones en de prijs van goud. Deze zogenaamde Dow/goud-ratio laat zien dat op het hoogtepunt van de aandelenmarkten de Dow meer dan veertig keer hoger stond dan de goudprijs van 250 dollar.

De historie leert ons dat aan het einde van de bearmarket in aandelen de ratio rond de vijf uitkomt. Dat betekent een Dow Jones van 5000 bij een goudprijs van 1000 dollar. Of een Dow van 3000 en goud op 600 dollar.



Service-info

Wie zonder veel moeite in goud wil beleggen, kiest voor het gespecialiseerde beleggingsfonds Mercury Gold & Mining van Merrill Lynch. Wel eerst een rekening openen bij Fundcoach of Fundix. Meer info over goud en zilver vindt u bij Gold Eagle en Kitco.
Wie fysiek goud wil kopen per ons, kilo of in munten kan terecht bij gespecialiseerde goudhandelaren (zie: Gouden Gids). Een goed adres is Drijfhout in Amsterdam Zuidoost. Het is ook mogelijk een goudrekening te openen bij Drijfhout of uw bank, zodat u het goud niet zelf hoeft te bewaren.

Let op, edelmetalen hebben een hoog speculatief gehalte!

[Dottore Lupo]

Also ..ich spreche es fliessend...es steht zusammengefasst nur das gleiche Zeugs wie in deinen Gata Sachen drin...absolut nichts Neues oder weltbewegendes.

Falls jemand meine Sprachkenntnis testen will ,übersetze ich den Quatsch auch...aber er ist nicht mal ein summary wert.

cu DL

[maxone]

super thread zu gold.. mach weiter so thaiguru..

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1039712904889.html?nv=hptn

ftd.de, Sa, 14.12.2002, 17:30

Börsenausblick: Anleger stürzen sich auf Euro und Rohstoffe

Von Doris Grass, Frankfurt, Nicola Liebert

Der Höhenflug des Euro wird sich diese Woche nach Einschätzung von Analysten ebenso fortsetzen wie der Anstieg der der Rohstoffpreise. An den Finanzmärkten ist zum einen die Angst vor einem Irak-Krieg wieder gewachsen, und auch Nordkorea ist als neues Risiko in den Fokus gerückt.

Das belastet den Dollar und treibt die Anleger in sichere Häfen wie Gold oder Anleihen und lässt - neben geplanten Förderkürzungen sowie dem anhaltenden Streik in Venezuela -auch den Ölpreis weiter steigen. Zum anderen sind die Hoffnungen auf eine baldige Belebung der US-Konjunktur als Motor für die Weltwirtschaft trotz teilweise positiver Daten vom Freitag gedämpft.

Dies wiederum verhalf dem Euro zu einer ungeahnten Rally. Er kletterte zum Dollar zeitweise auf fast 1,03 $ und damit den höchsten Stand seit drei Jahren. Der Greenback steht gegenüber allen wichtigen Währungen unter Druck. Dazu trägt auch bei, dass Devisenhändler bislang vergeblich darauf warten, dass der neue US-Finanzminister John Snow die Politik eines starken Dollar bekräftigt.

Zweifel am US-Aufschwung

Folker Hellmeyer, Devisenexperte der Bremer Landesbank, ist überzeugt, dass der Anstieg des Euro nachhaltig ist. Er sieht Chancen, dass die Einheitswährung bis auf 1,0350 oder 1,04 $ zulegt. "Insgesamt ist der Ausblick für die US-Wirtschaft im kommenden Jahr nicht sehr dynamisch." Gedämpfte Wachstumsprognosen zögen die USA am stärksten in Mitleidenschaft, weil das Land wegen seines hohen Leistungsbilanzdefizits stark von Auslandskapital abhängig sei, sagte Hellmeyer.

Im übrigen haben die zuletzt schlechten Daten vom Arbeitsmarkt den Zweiflern am amerikanischen Aufschwung neuen Stoff gegeben. Allerdings konnte der Greenback am Freitag einen Teil seiner Verluste wettmachen und drückte den Euro wieder unter 1,02 $, nachdem der Michigan-Index des Verbrauchervertrauens entgegen den Erwartungen im Dezember auf 87,0 Punkte von 84,2 Punkten im Vormonat stieg.

Starker Euro

Der feste Euro belastete unterdessen neben anderen Faktoren am Freitag die europäischen Börsen - vor allem die Exportwerte. Der Dax verlor vergangene Woche 4,2 Prozent. Der Stoxx 50 beendete die dritte Woche in Folge mit Einbußen, dieses Mal minus 3,8 Prozent. Der Dow Jones-Index verlor 2,5 Prozent und der Nasdaq Composite 4,4 Prozent.

Die Renten dürften von den schwachen Börsen und den schlechten Konjunkturaussichten weiter profitieren. Analysten sehen Chancen, dass der Terminkontrakt auf zehnjährige Bundesanleihen, der Bund-Future, an seinem Hoch von 2001 von 113,11 Punkten kratzen könnte. Die Rendite der Langläufer könnte nach Einschätzung von M.M. Warburg demnächst auf 4,0 Prozent oder sogar die Tiefs von 1999 fallen. Am Freitag schloss der Kontrakt bei 112,39, die Rendite lag bei 4,33 Prozent.

Signale vom Ifo-Index

Diese Woche werden noch zahlreiche wichtige Konjunkturbarometer in den USA und Europa veröffentlichtan. Auf dem alten Kontinent steht der Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Index am Mittwoch im Vordergrund. Angesichts der anhaltenden Unsicherheit über die Steuer- und Abgabenpläne der Bundesregierung rechnen Analysten mit einem erneuten Rückgang auf durchschnittlich 87,1 Punkte von 87,3 im November. Die Deutsche Bank sagt sogar nur 86,9 Punkte voraus. Aber auch der Auftragseingang der deutschen Industrie und die Inflationsdaten im Wochenverlauf könnten die Märkte bewegen.

In den USA werden am Dienstag die Verbraucherpreise, Industrieproduktion und Kapazitätsauslastung sowie die Baubeginne im November veröffentlicht. Die Volkswirte sagen im Durchschnitt einen leichten Anstieg der Inflation und der Produktion, einen Rückgang der Neubau-Vorhaben und eine Stagnation der Kapazitätsauslastung voraus. Der Konjunkturindex der Notenbank von Philadelphia am Donnerstag dürfte im Dezember nach einem kräftigen Anstieg im Vormonat zurückfallen.

Prägender Hexensabbat

Der deutsche Aktienmarkt wird nach Ansicht von Stefan Hentschel, Aktienstratege beim Bankhaus Lampe, vor allem vom dreifachen Verfallstermin von Terminkontrakten und Optionen auf den Dax und einzelne Aktien am Freitag geprägt werden. Der so genannte Hexensabbat dürfte zu starken Ausschlägen an der Börse führen. Dies könnte die bestehende Schwankungsanfälligkeit verstärken. Immer mehr Marktteilnehmer haben ihre Bücher bereits geschlossen. Bei geringen Umsätzen können schon kleinere Orders die Kurse kräftig beeinflussen.

"Die Meisten haben bereits ihre Gewinne realisiert und wollen sich nicht mehr die Finger verbrennen. Für den privaten Anleger ist das Beste, vorerst abzuwarten", rät Hentschel. Mit einer Jahresendrally rechnet ohnehin niemand mehr.

Auch die Wall Street wird neben den Konjunktursorgen zunehmend von der Sorge über einen möglichen Krieg gegen den Irak beherrscht. Stanley Nabi, Direktor von Credit Suisse Asset Management, klagt: "Der Markt kann sich nicht vorwärts entwickeln, solange es keine Lösung in der Irak-Frage gibt, solange wir nicht wissen, wie die Fiskalpolitik aussieht und solange die Ertragslage der Unternehmen so unklar ist." Nur wenige US-Unternehmen veröffentlichen diese Woche Quartalsbilanzen, darunter die Einzelhändler Best Buy und Circuit City, der Paketdienst FedEx und im Technologiesektor die Softwarefirma Oracle .

Gold lockt als solide Anlage

Ralph Acampora, der Charttechniker von Prudential Financial, interessiert sich derzeit besonders für die steigenden Öl- und Goldpreise. Ölfirmen wie Baker Hughes, Halliburton und Schlumberger sowie Goldproduzenten wie ASA, Goldcorp und Glamis Gold gehören seiner Ansicht nach zu den Werten mit dem höchsten Potenzial.

Auch Devisenexperte Hellmeyer verweist darauf, dass sich Gold in diesem Jahr als solide Anlagealternative etabliert hat. Die Entwicklung des Edelmetalls, der Goldminenaktien und -zertifikate habe in den vergangenen 24 Monaten die der Aktien und Rentenpapiere um Längen in den Schatten gestellt.

Der Ölpreis könnte seinen Höhenflug angesichts der geopolitischen Lage, der Förderkürzung der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) und dem Lieferausfall Venezzuelas, dem viertgrößten Exporteur der Welt, ebenfalls fortsetzen.

In diesem Jahr hat der Ölpreis um fast 40 Prozent zugelegt und ist am Freitag in New York auf etwa 28,60 $ je Barrel (159 Liter) geklettert. Analysten sehen aber durchaus die Möglichkeit kräftiger Gewinnmitnahmen. Opec-Generalsekretär Alvaro Silva versuchte, der Angst vor Lieferengpässen zu begegnen. Er sagte, das Kartell könnte die Produktion noch vor dem nächsten Treffen im März erhöhen, sollten sich die Notierungen nachhaltig über 28 $ halten.

© 2002 Financial Times Deutschland

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub9E7BDDDA469E11D4AE7B0008C7F31E1E/Doc…

Finanzmarkt

Rekordschulden der US-Verbraucher als Zeitbombe

13. Dezember 2002 In den USA haben die Schulden der privaten Haushalte die Schwelle von acht Billionen Dollar überschritten und wachsen so schnell wie seit knapp 13 Jahren nicht mehr. Um ihren monatlichen Ratenzahlungen nachkommen zu können, benötigen die Amerikaner entsprechende Einkommen und niedrige Zinsen.

Und genau hier droht Gefahr. Wenn die Amerikaner sich Sorgen um ihren Arbeitsplatz machen oder befürchten, dass die Zinsen demnächst wieder steigen werden, fangen sie an zu sparen und schränken ihren Konsum ein.

Konjunkturerholung könnte abgewürgt werden

Als die Kreditschulden von Rina Elson vor fünf Monaten 25.000 Dollar erreichten, beschloss sie, dass jetzt Schluss sein müsse. Sie stellte Kabelfernsehen und Ferngespräche ein, fand eine billigere Autoversicherung und reduzierte ihre Altersvorsorge. "Mir wuchsen meine Schulden über den Kopf," gesteht die 38-jährige Vorstandsassistentin, die ein Jahresgehalt von 53.000 Dollar hat. "Ich wollte nicht erleben, dass ich meinen Zahlungen nicht nachkommen kann, mein Auto verkaufen oder meine Familie anpumpen muss."

Hoch verschuldete Verbraucher wie Elson könnten eine Konjunkturerholung in den USA abwürgen, wenn noch mehr Haushalte ihren Konsum einschränken, um ihre Schulden abzubauen. Einige Ökonomen sehen daher Gefahr durch die steigenden Arbeitslosenzahlen. Im November kletterte die Arbeitslosenquote von 5,6 Prozent zu Jahresanfang auf sechs Prozent. Auch höhere Zinsen könnten zum Problem werden. Laut einer Umfrage von Bloomberg rechnen die Ökonomen bei den größten Bondhändlern mit einem Anziehen der US-Zinsen im zweiten Halbjahr 2003.

„Die Probleme fangen an, wenn die Zinsen nach oben gehen“"

Noch sind die Kreditkartenzinsen mit 13,69 Prozent und Hypothekenzinsen mit 6,57 Prozent niedrig. „Noch ist die Katastrophe nicht da“, bestätigt David Wyss, Chefökonom bei Standard & Poor`s in New York. „Die Probleme fangen an, wenn die Zinsen nach oben gehen“.

Im dritten Quartal stieg die Verschuldung der privaten Haushalte in den USA mit einer Jahresrate von 9,6 Prozent, zeigen die Zahlen der Federal Reserve. Der rasante Anstieg der Schulden und die Kursverluste am Aktienmarkt ließen das Nettovermögen der Privathaushalte von 40,1 Billionen Dollar im zweiten Quartal auf 38,3 Billionen Dollar um 4,5 Prozent abschmelzen. „Das kann Probleme bereiten, weil die Konsumausgaben zwei Drittel der Wirtschaftsleistung ausmachen“, berichtet William Sullivan, Chef-Ökonom bei Morgan Stanley in Jersey City. „Die Verbraucher werden den Gürtel enger schnallen. Mehr Geld wird für den Zinsen und Abzahlungen drauf gehen“.

Die Schuldenabzahlungen einschließlich Hypothekenzahlungen verschlingen mittlerweile 14 Prozent vom verfügbaren Einkommen. Zum letzten Mal wurde diese Quote im zweiten Quartal 1987 überschritten. Damals befanden sich die USA mitten in einem achtjährigen Konjunkturaufschwung. 1998 begann die Fed, die Zinsen zu erhöhen. Im vierten Quartal 1990 und im dritten Quartal 1991 gingen zwei Quartale in Folge die Konsumausgaben zurück. Im Juli 1990 rutschte das Land in die Rezession ab. Anfang der neunziger Jahre waren die Haushalte laut den Fed-Zahlen mit 3,7 Billionen Dollar verschuldet, im dritten Quartal 2002 waren es 8,2 Billionen Dollar. Insgesamt liegt die Verschuldung heute bei 100 Prozent des verfügbaren Einkommens.

„Tickende Zeitbombe“

„Hier tickt eine Zeitbombe“, prognostiziert Christopher Low, Chefvolkswirt bei FTN Financial in New York. „Das Ticken ist schon zu hören und wird explodieren, wenn die Zinsen nach oben gehen“. Das könnte seiner Meinung nach Mitte nächsten Jahres der Fall sein. Auch vom Arbeitsmarkt drohen Probleme. Die Unternehmen haben angesichts der schwachen Konjunkturerholung kaum neu eingestellt. Seit dem Beginn der Rezession im letzten Jahr sind 1,6 Millionen Arbeitsplätze vernichtet worden. Die persönlichen Einkommen könnten 2003 angesichts der steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit fallen, befürchtet Low. In den zwölf Monaten bis September mussten 1,5 Millionen Amerikaner Bankrott anmelden, ein trauriger Rekord, berichtet das Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.

Die Hypothekenzwangsversteigerungen erreichten im zweiten Quartal mit 0,4 Prozent den höchsten Stand seit mindestens drei Jahrzehnten, zeigen die Daten der Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Außerdem bereitet mehr Amerikanern die Verschuldung Bauchschmerzen. Bei einer Umfrage unter 1.000 US-Bürgern, ob sie sich Sorgen machten, "ihre monatlichen Kreditzahlungen erfüllen zu können, zeigten sich 30 Prozent „sehr besorgt“. Vor einem Jahr waren es erst 19 Prozent.

Schlechtes Zeichen für die Aktienmärkte

Das dürfte realistische Börsianer etwas skeptisch stimmen. Denn viele Analysten gehen bei ihrem Optimismus davon aus, dass die Konsumenten die US-Konjunktur zumindest am Leben erhalten werden, während von der Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen nicht zu viel zu erwarten ist. Halten sich jedoch die Verbraucher zurück, dürfte sich manche Gewinnprognose als unhaltbar erweisen. Die Börsen wird das kaum erfreuen.

Text: @cri

[ThaiGuru]

http://tagesanzeiger.ch/ta/taOnlineArtikel?ArtId=244062

10:06 Uhr | Sonntag, 15. Dezember 2002

Britische Kriegsschiffe an den persischen Golf

Grossbritannien wird Anfang 2003 sechs Kriegsschiffe in den Persischen Golf schicken. Die Entsendung sei seit langem geplant, berichteten britische Medien am Sonntag. Offenbar soll Premier Blair bald eine offizielle Erklärung dazu abgeben.

[ThaiGuru]

Schon einige Tage alt dieser Beitrag!

Was passieren kann, wenn man gehedgte Goldminen Aktien, oder deren Optionen kauft, zeigt diese Leseranfrage an Martin Spieler, bei der Sonntagszeitung.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.sonntagszeitung.ch/sz/szUnterRubrik.html?rubrikid…

Im Zwiespalt mit Barrick Gold

Wenn sich die Option etwas erholt hat, sollte sie spätestens bis Ende 2002 verkauft werden

Ich habe Goldoptionen auf Barrick Gold, die 2003 verfallen. Diese habe ich im Frühling, als der Goldpreis ziemlich hoch war, zu rund 83 Rappen gekauft. Würden Sie diese behalten, oder sind Sie der Meinung, dass der Goldpreis nicht wieder so hoch gehen wird? G. N.

Unabhängiger Geldberater



Der Wunsch nach Kapitalsicherheit hat den Goldpreis im Mai auf 327 US-Dollar pro Unze steigen lassen, so hoch wie zuvor drei Jahre nicht. Derzeit notiert Gold um die 320 Dollar je Unze. Angesichts eines möglichen Krieges im Irak und möglicher Eskalation im Nahen Osten haben sich etliche Investoren mit physischem Gold oder mit Goldaktien eingedeckt.

Ihre Spekulation auf einen höheren Goldpreis kann ich vor dem Hintergrund der Unsicherheiten an den Finanzmärkten und der internationalen Politik nachvollziehen. Auch die Wahl einer Option auf den Basistitel Barrick Gold ergibt Sinn. Barrick gehört zu den grössten Goldproduzenten der Welt.

Leider sind Sie aber praktisch beim bisherigen Mehrjahres-Höchstkurs des gelben Metalls und kurz vor Barricks Gewinnwarnung eingestiegen. Die Option, die von der ZKB herausgegeben wurde, erreichte ein Jahreshoch von 91 Rappen, wird derzeit aber nur noch für rund ein Drittel davon gehandelt.

Den Ausübungspreis von 20 Dollar pro Barrick-Aktie halte ich bei einer Zuspitzung der Nahost-Krise für erreichbar. Wenn sich dann Ihre Option etwas erholt, würde ich sie verkaufen. Länger als bis Ende 2002 würde ich aber nicht mehr warten. Die bis im Juni 2003 befristete Laufzeit der Option arbeitet gegen Sie. Ich gehe davon aus, dass Sie nur noch einen Teil Ihres Einsatzes zurückerhalten.


Schreiben Sie Martin Spieler
[e-mail]
Die Leseranfragen werden diskret behandelt.
Postadresse:
SonntagsZeitung
Geldberater
Postfach
8022 Zürich

[ThaiGuru]

http://tagesanzeiger.ch/ta/gcOnlineArtikel?ArtId=243504

10:37 Uhr | Sonntag, 15. Dezember 2002

Pensionskassen verdienen zu wenig

Falls die Renditen auf Kapitalanlagen nicht steigen, bekommen viele Versicherte der beruflichen Vorsorge eine tiefere Rente als sie annehmen.

Grafik Renten

Von Marcel Sigrist und Marco Zanchi

Viele Schweizer Pensionskassen erwirtschaften zu tiefe Kapitalerträge, um den Verpflichtungen gegenüber ihren Versicherten längerfristig nachzukommen. Sie haben auf ihren Aktienportefeuilles substanzielle Verluste erlitten und laufen Gefahr, gegen die gesetzliche Vorschrift zu verstossen, wonach die Rentenansprüche jederzeit durch Vermögenswerte gedeckt sein müssen. Betrug dieser Deckungsgrad vor Jahresfrist 102 Prozent, wird er bis zum Jahresende auf 92 Prozent sinken. Zu dieser Einschätzung gelangt die Swissca in einer Umfrage unter 211 Pensionskassen, die gesamthaft über 200 Milliarden Franken verwalten.

Verschärft wird das Problem durch die Aktienbaisse. Sie frisst die Schwankungsreserven der Kassen weg. Diese dienen dazu, Phasen tiefer Renditen auszugleichen. Die Reserven sind gemäss Swissca-Umfrage auf 5 Prozent der Vermögen geschmolzen und liegen damit deutlich unter den empfohlenen Mindestwerten.

Deckungsgrad sinkt

Die Pensionskassen stecken in der Zwickmühle: Um das Rentenniveau langfristig zu halten, sind sie auf deutlich höhere Wertschriftenerträge angewiesen, als sie in den letzten Jahren erzielt haben. Bessere Renditen lassen sich an den Finanzmärkten aber nur um den Preis höherer Risiken erkaufen, beispielsweise - und vor allem - über ein grösseres Aktienengagement. Doch vielen Vorsorgeeinrichtungen sind auf Grund ihres ungenügenden Deckungsgrades die Hände gebunden. Sollten die Aktienmärkte nicht nach oben drehen, wird sich das Problem akzentuieren.

Die Unsicherheit unter Pensionskassenmanagern ist gross: Sie halten sich mit Aktienkäufen zurück, obwohl die angepeilte Quote in den Portefeuilles infolge der Wertvernichtung unterschritten ist, oder sie fassen aus Furcht vor weiteren Verlusten gar einen Teilrückzug aus Aktien ins Auge - zu Gunsten von Anleihen. Die «langweiligen» Obligationen erweisen sich als solider Ertragspfeiler: Die schwergewichtig in Oblis investierten Pensionskassen haben im Zuge weltweit rückläufiger Zinsen auf ihren Portefeuilles hohe Kapitalgewinne erzielt.

Doch die Renditen Schweizer und ausländischer Anleihen sind auf Tiefstände gesunken. Schweizer Staatstitel, mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit beispielsweise, verzinsen sich derzeit zu knapp 2,4 Prozent. Anfang Jahr betrug die Jahresrendite noch 3,5 Prozent. Experten diskutieren, ob sich an den Anleihenmärkten eine Blase gebildet hat und Obligationen überbewertet sind. Viele rechnen mit keinen weiteren Kursgewinnen. Damit blieben die tiefen Coupons als Ertragsquelle. Wer mehr Rendite anstrebt, muss ein höheres Risiko eingehen - wenn er kann.

Zu hohe Mindestverzinsung?

Schweizer Pensionskassen rechnen gemäss der Swissca für 2002 mit einer Rendite von 4 Prozent. Nach Abzug der Kosten, die je nach Kasse von 1 bis 1,5 Prozent variieren, bleiben netto 2,5 bis 3 Prozent. Wenn die Wertschriftenerträge nicht steigen, ist die vom Bundesrat beschlossene Senkung der Mindestverzinsung von 4 auf 3,25 Prozent unangemessen. Denn sie beruht auf der Annahme, dass die Kassen längerfristig höhere Nettoerträge erzielen als 2,5 bis 3 Prozent. Realistisch wäre eine tiefere Mindestverzinsung von 2,5 Prozent, sagt der Berner Pensionskassenexperte Claude Chuard.

Diese Entwicklungen legen nahe, dass die Versicherten weniger Rente erhalten, als in Aussicht gestellt. Dreh- und Angelpunkt sind die zukünftigen Wertschriftenerträge. Denn sie bilden im System der zweiten Säule eine zentrale Einflussgrösse für die Höhe des Alterssparguthabens der Versicherten. Je mehr Rendite, desto höher das angesparte Guthaben, das die Rentenhöhe bestimmt.

Nicht finanzierbar wären die Renten über die alleinige Erhöhung der Beiträge aus den Lohntüten der Versicherten, ohne das Konzept der beruflichen Vorsorge in der Schweiz grundlegend zu verändern. Eine Variable blieb unerwähnt: Der lange Anlagehorizont, den die Versicherten als eine Art «Trumpf» in der Hand halten. Je länger jemand spart, desto grösser ist die Chance, schlechte Anlagejahre durch gute auszugleichen. So liesse sich über einen jahrzehntelangen Zeitraum betrachtet mit Schweizer Aktien jährlich nominal 5 bis 10 Prozent verdienen. Eine Garantie für zukünftige Erträge ist das nicht.

****

Was glaubt ihr was los ist, falls die Pensionkassen etwas in Gold diversifizieren würden?

Bis jetzt ist das ja sehr wahrscheinlich noch bei den wenigsten Kassen der Fall.

Könnte ja noch kommen, wer weiss?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Bing0]

Zum FAZNet-Artikel:

1. Ich gehe nicht davon aus, dass die US-Zinsen ab Mitte 2003 wieder steigen, sondern dass die FED ihren Spielraum nach unten noch weiter ausnutzen wird. Aber: Aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben.

2. Ich betrachte die Arbeitslosenzahlen skeptisch: Ich gehe davon aus, dass viele Amerikaner wieder Arbeit finden, aber bei einem niedrigeren Bruttoeinkommen. Da kann Bush noch ein bisschen mit den Steuern gegensteuern, aber die Menschen werden sparen.

Um die ganze Sache irgenwie in Griff zu bekommen müsste der Dollar massiv abgewertet werden - auf Kosten der europäischen Industrie.

Gruß, bing0

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={F84…

Australia`s Canadian gold rush

Drew Hasselback
Financial Post


Saturday, December 14, 2002

Canadian mining companies control more Australian gold than any other country -- including Australia itself. Mining reporter Drew Hasselback travelled to Kalgoorlie, the capital of the continent`s gold industry, and spoke with industry leaders to find out why Canadians have set their sights on this vast desert.



Ganzer Artikel:

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={F84…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=12/15/02&Cat=9…


December 15, 2002

Gold Prices Hit Three-Year High on Softer Dollar


LONDON -- Investor fears of war and nuclear weapons kept the gold market close to three-year highs in European trade on Friday.

A cocktail of flaring political tensions, spiking oil prices and a drop in the value of the dollar sent the safe-haven metal within sight of a three-year-old high of $338.00 an ounce.

"This is an unfolding huge bull market," said a U.S.-based metals broker.

Spot gold hit $335.25 an ounce in early European trade, rallying from its previous close in New York at $331.20/331.70.

But the market drifted back to $331.00/331.50 at 1737 GMT as the dollar edged off near three-year lows against the euro after a closely watched gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment shot up well above market expectations.

Bullion was set or "fixed" in the London afternoon session at $332.20 an ounce, off its morning fix of $333.50, as spot gold gave up most of its gains.

"You`ve got the North Korea problem and you`ve got the Iraq problem," a Japanese-based broker said earlier. "But you also had a slightly softer dollar, which kept gains in check."

News that Washington was prepared to use nuclear weapons to respond to any Iraqi attack with weapons of mass destruction added to tensions, even as UN officials widened arms inspections that could determine war or peace in the Persian Gulf.

The dollar shot lower against other major world currencies, surrendering half a percentage point to the euro, which rose to $1.0226 at 0920 GMT, and down to a one-month low against the Swiss franc -- another traditional safe haven.

The United States turned up the diplomatic heat after North Korea decided to reactivate a nuclear power plant.

The gold price has gained nearly 20 percent over this year as political instability has grown, economic uncertainty has battered equity markets and investor confidence has been bruised by a string of high-profile corporate accounting scandals.

Gold last reached $338.00 in October 1999 when 15 central banks, including those under the European Central Bank as well as the UK, Sweden and Switzerland signed a pact to limit their lending and sales of metal for five years.

The Washington agreement, as the deal signed in September 1999 was known, caused a surprise $70 spike in the price, which had been floundering near 20-year lows.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?cli…

Gold heads for highs as investors head for the hills

Vernon Wessels

December 15 2002 at 06:49AM

Johannesburg - The investment world is jittery: the gold price, which was floating near three-year highs of about $335 an ounce on Friday, may push even higher as investors flee to safe havens as the dollar weakens and stock prices fall because of war fears.

Bullion, which has gained 20 percent this year, shot through the technical resistance level of $330 an ounce as concern mounted on Wall Street on Thursday that the US would attack Iraq.

The price of crude oil hovered at seven-week highs after Opec said it would police production quotas more strictly, effectively reducing output by up to 1.7 million barrels a day. Brent crude rose 62c to $27.05 a barrel at the London close on Friday.

Gold shares rallied in tandem with the stronger metal. The six-member gold
index rose 6 percent on Friday, bringing its gains to 83 percent so far this year.

"If you have not bought gold shares already it is probably too late to buy," said Dirk Kotze, a fund manager at Coronation Fund Managers.

"If you have gold stocks it would probably be good to hold. If you`re looking to sell it could be worth it to wait for the price to go another 10 percent to 15 percent from here."

Technically, Kotze said, bullion could go to anything between $350 and $400 an ounce, although he was not convinced it would get there.

He said local gold stocks were very expensive considering that their earnings were being eroded by the firmer rand, which on Friday leapt 16.7c to close at a fresh 15-month best of R8.7480 to the dollar. It is up 34 percent this year.

"There is also spectacular value in other parts of our market, away from gold shares," he said. "Kumba was down 9 percent [during trade on Friday]. If your time horizon is long enough you can make money there."

A local trader for a major international bank believed it was not impossible for the gold price to gallop another $30 given the gloomy economic growth forecasts for the US and European Union and rising incidences of global terrorism.

Ian Woodley, the head of unit trusts at Stanlib Asset and Wealth Management, said all the local gold producers seemed to be priced 40 percent to 50 percent over fair value although they were still cheaper than their north American counterparts.

It was impossible to predict what the gold price would do as it was often driven by sentiment, he said.

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Sozzi]

Friday, December 13, 2002
A partnership of the Mining Association of B.C. and an estimated 5,800 teachers in 1,500 schools is producing accurate information and relevant instruction on mining. Since 1991, a modestly estimated 500,000 students have participated in a colourful suite of resources, from kindergarten to Grade 12. It has no equal, anywhere in the world.

[thomas029]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[EAW]

Gold hat bei 325 den Seitwärtskanal verlassen und befindet sich im Aufwärtskanal.
ÖL hat bei 27 den Seitwärtskanal verlassen und befindet sich im Aufwärtskanal.

Indizes bleiben Kritisch.

Charttechnik
Charttechnische - Prognose für 16 Indizes (Q4)

Keiner weiß was morgen passiert

[ThaiGuru]

Es scheint so, dass einige User im Goldboard, obwohl sie hier oft in diesem Thread lesen, und sich mit Informationen zum Goldgeschehen versorgen, und sich dann gleichzeitig über meine Art zu beschweren, sinniger Weise nicht wohl fühlen. Das ist zwar ihr gutes Recht, doch meine Absicht ist es auch nicht für einseitig Blinde, Ignoranten, und einige Idi.ten vom Typ "Dottore Lupo", und "Granitbiss" etc. zu posten.

Aus diesem Grunde habe ich mich entschlossen Informationen zum Gold, und Wirtschaftsgeschehen, ab sofort, denjenigen die sich daran interessieren, per WBoardmail zu versenden.

Damit sollte sichergestellt sein, dass sich keine User mehr unnötig über meine Postings, oder meine Art Dinge zu sagen, ärgern müssen.

Diejenigen User die weiterhin an Infos interessiert sind, können mir eine kurze Boardmail zusenden.

Den vielen Usern, die die Zeichen der Zeit erkannt haben, und sich täglich die Mühe geben die Leser im Board, sachlich über das Goldgeschehen zu informieren, möchte ich meinen Dank aussprechen.

Den in letzter Zeit vermehrt aufgetauchten angeblichen Goldskeptikern, die versuchen dieses Goldboard für ihre anti Gold Propaganda einzusetzen, wünsche ich, dass sie bei den unzähligen Gold Bugs, und den vielen Lesern auf taube Ohren stossen werden, und dass die Leser im Board "echte" von "falschen" Gold Bugs zu unterscheiden wissen, und auch nicht verunsichern lassen.

Gold hat Zukunft!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

an thai guru

Danke für deine Infos bisher.
Es ist schade, dass du dich von diesen Skeptikern
und Spinnern hast unterkriegen lassen.
Vielleicht war das deren Absicht.

Gold und silber haben eine Super-Zukunft.

Bis dann.

[Dottore Lupo]

Dann dürfte ja Manni dein einziger gesprächspartner sein!!!!

cu DL und Tschüss

[logo8]

wer diesen threat nicht mag, sollte doch einfach
woanders lesen/posten.
Es gibt im board sooo... wenige threats mit einer
Informationsansammlung wie dieser hier.
lass ihn doch bestehen.

[Blecheuro]

Thai Guru,

wie Du weißt, gab es die Probleme nicht nur mit Granitbiss und Dottore. Ich denke dabei gerade mal an mich. Man sollte jeden so nehmen, wie er ist. Im Austeilen bis Du, wenn es darauf ankommt, auch nicht gerade von Pappe. Dottore traue ich einiges zu - und die Späßchen, die er ab und zu bringt, sind manchmal ganz schön. Wie Du bemerkt haben wirst, ist mein Verhältnis zu Granitbiss besser bzw. normal geworden. Aber dazu muß halt jeder etwas beitragen. Kritik ist grundsätzlich zulässig. Nur sollte jeder versuchen, dabei den anderen nicht zu beleidigen und das Ganze in einem halbwegs normalen Rahmen ablaufen lassen. Also, was solls, weitermachen!

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred

Das ich nicht mehr Informationen übers Gold Geschehen posten werde für Leute die sich aus welchen Gründen auch immer, gestört fühlen, habe ich geschrieben.

Es ist viel einfacher, ohne eigene substanzielle Beiträge, oder informationen, andere zu kritisieren, und mit blöden und beleidigenden Postings zu bekakken, als die Leser mit interessanten Infos zum Gold, und dem Wirtschaftsgeschehen, das in einem Zusammenhang mit der zukünftigen Goldpreis Entwicklung gesehen werden sollte, zu Posten.

Infos zum Goldgeschehen gibt es weiterhin, für die daran wirklich interessierten echten Gold Bugs! Kurze Mitteilung per Boardmail genügt.

Werde mich aber nicht aus dem Goldboard zurückziehen, wie jetzt von einigen Usern fälschlicher Weise vermutet, und von einigen falschen Gold Bugs, und Idi.oten erhofft wird, die durch ihre Postings unter den Lesern nur Verwirrung stiften wollen, oder zumindest in vielen Fällen, selbst keine Ahnung haben was Sache ist.

Wenn jemand schreibt der Goldpreis würde jetzt bald wieder Fallen, oder Gold habe seinen Zenit erreicht, und sich sich hier im Board zudem noch als Gold Bug bezeichnet, ist doch ganz klar, dass diese nichts, aber auch gar nichts, vom Goldpreis Manipulations Skandal der letzten 10 Jahre, kapiert haben, und dem Gold Cabal geradezu bewusst, oder unbewusst in die Hände arbeiten.

Wenn ich kürzlich vom User "imoen" im Board bei einem Goldpreis von 320.- Dollar lesen darf, "Gold würde jetz wieder fallen", gestern dann die Falschaussage, "dass die FED keine Privatbank sei", zudem wollte diese "Imöbe" des Lesern im Goldboard eine 3 Jahre alte Studie einer deutschen Bundesinstitution, mit dem darin enthaltenen Gold Cabal typischen Satz, "Heute haben die Goldschätze der Notenbanken an Bedeutung verloren. Der Verfall des Goldpreises einerseits und boomende Wertpapiermärkte andererseits lassen ihre Neigung schwinden, an ihm festzuhalten.", als unverdächtigen Seite verkaufen, und heute eben wieder von dieser "Imöbe", die aus Unkenntnis, und Nichtwissen gemachte Aussage, "es gebe noch andere Player als JP-Morgan" und dann die Firma "Chase Manhattan" aufzählt, die ja bekannlicherweise eben gerade diese Firma JP-Morgan verkörpert, kriege ich nun mal das Kotzen. Dass er die Namen seiner aufgeführten Firmen zudem teilweise falsch schrieb, zeugt auch von seinem Nichtswissen.

Das gewisse User immer wieder solche Poster im Goldboard auch noch unterstützen, sagt eigentlich schon alles über sie aus.

Gold wird weiter steigen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[goldenbear2]

Hai Thai!
Liegt wohl daran, dass A-moeben nicht gerade ein komplexes Zentralnervensystem haben
Ich fänd´s gut, wenn Du diesen Thread weiterführst!

[crashkommt]

Hola Thai,

auch wenn ich Deinen Usernamen nicht mag,

finde ich Deine Beitraege aeusserst informativ.


Danke fuer alles.


MfG

[Fandrich]

Hallo Thai !

Wär schade wenn ich Deinen Infothread nicht mehr
gelegendlich besuchen könnte !

Bei über 140 000 Zugriffen bist Du allmählich für
viele zur angenehmen Gewohnheit geworden !

Gruß Fandrich

PS ....reg Dich nicht über Selbstdarsteller auf !

[granitbiss]

von Thai:
und einige Idi.ten vom Typ "Dottore Lupo", und "Granitbiss" etc. zu posten.



warum sind nur die anderen Idi....s
DU bist verbohrt (auch wenn die Zeit dir recht geben sollte)

[crashkommt]

Akzeptiere doch einfach,

dass Du ein Idiot bist und geh zu Deiner Mammi


MfG


PS.: versuch doch wenigstens einmal etwas konstruktives hier ins Netz zu stellen.

[granitbiss]

chrashi

da kommen nur konstruktive Sachen

z.B.

Bei Deiner Gartenarbeit bist Du besser aufgehoben.
Bleib doch einfach dabei.

Oder ist da Dein persönliches Bohrloch zum "gegenlaufen"

[talvi100]

Nur zur Erinnerung ThaiGuru!!!

Muß du nur noch Kopieren.

Heute J2 und imoen und welche Chaoten morgen!!!!

Grüße Talvi
PS.Kann keine Leute ab,die erst einem was versprechen und es dann nicht einhalten.


********************************************************

#37 von ThaiGuru 04.11.02 11:05:41 Beitrag Nr.: 7.753.365 7753365
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken
Habe gerade gelesen, dass es jetzt gewünscht wird anliegen hier in diesem Thread vorzubringen.

Nun denn, hier ist mein Anliegen.

@Board Mods

Wäre es BITTE einmal möglich, die Chaoten dort zur Räson zu bringen?

Talvi, DR. Lupo, Granitbiss, etc. = Ein und die selbe Person, müllen verschiedene Threads seit Tagen mit ein, und mehrfach Postings der nivaulosesten Sorte, entgegen allen WO Boardregeln voll.

Vielleicht schaut Ihr hier mal zuerst rein.

!!! GOLD - PREIS !!! Informationen und Gerüchte !!!

Thread 573644

Besten Dank

TG

[granitbiss]

noch mal zu Deinem letzen Posting :

wie schon anderer Stelle geschrieben, reicht Dein Gedächnis noch nicht mal zwei Stunden weit, dann ist weg was Du geschrieben oder dir einer diktiert hat.

Den Tenor mit der "Mami" hattest Du vor einigen Tagen schon.

Mitgeteilt hatte ich Dir auch, dass meine Mutter leider schon vor längerer Zeit verstorben ist.

Dümmer und geschmackloser dürfte hier keiner sein...Ar.............

[granitbiss]

Thai

meintest Du dámit die Leute, die Du als "Idi.."
titulierst.

Ist das Formulierung im Sinner der Boardrichtlinien ?
Hattest DU w.0 das auch mitgeteilt ?

[schuh]

Es ist schön Gewinne zu machen !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Und es ist interessant Leute zu erleben die hier im Board nur andere provozieren wollen

Wollt ihr keine Gewinne machen ?????????????? Na egal ich bin auf jeden Fall von Euch interessant unterhalten, besser als der Comedy-quatsch im Fernsehen

macht weiter so, Ihr ( fast hätte ich narren gesagt), ihr Comedystars

[crashkommt]

Ja Hirni,

duemmer und geschmackloser bist mit Sicherheit Du.


Anonsten wuerdes Du wenigstens einmal etwas konstruktives von Dir geben.

Aber sorry, das schaffst Du ja leider nicht mehr in diesem Leben, vielleicht im Naechsten.



MfG

[granitbiss]

chrashi

das konstuktive hast du dümmlicherweise wieder überlesen :

Bleib bei Deiner Gartenarbeit

Wenn dir jemand mal plausibel macht, wie Du Dich hier aufführst, könntest Du das Verhalten eine Maulwurfes annehmen
Manchmal ist begreifen daher auch nicht immer gut.

Also Vorsicht

[usercs]

@Thaiguru

Bitte weitermachen. Ich finde Deine Beiträge sehr interessant. An Leute wie granitbiss & Co kann ich nur appellieren, daß sie sich aus dem Thread zurückziehen sollten, wenn sie davon nichts halten. Euer Gequatsche bin ich wie viele andere leid.

[granitbiss]

userc

einige (zwei-drei) posten hier die absolute Gewißheit Gold wäre in kurzer Zeit bei 1.000 bis 5.000 US-Dollar.

Laut Thai vor Monaten, sollten die 800- 1.000 schon bis Ende 2002 erreicht sein..

Ist es verantwortlich, diese bis jetzt völlig aus der Luft gegriffenen Aussagen auf unbedarfte User zu lassen ??

Es gibt hier nicht nur die großen Fachleute !!

[Biotechperle]

@Thaiguru

Lass Dich doch nicht von so ein paar Dumpfbacken mit ihrem
unsachlichen Müll hier rausdrängen.Die Mehrzahl ist nach wie vor an deinen Beitägen interessiert. Nicht zuletzt haben Deine Argumente und die Weitergabe von wertvollen Informationen mit für meinen Einstieg in diesen Sektor gesorgt, so daß ich derzeitig ein schönes Plus in meinem Depot verzeichne.Also, mach bitte weiter.
Wichtiger ist,das das Gold gerade wieder anzieht und die Minen heute noch schön im grünen Bereich schließen werden!


Bio

[pisa]

@Biotechpelre #3348

Ach Perle , wieso bist nicht bei Deinen Biotechs geblieben :-)

Die Goldminen sind schon sehr gut gelaufen, also verkauf sie lieber und investier wieder in Deine Qiagen :-)

BTW: Den grössten Gewinn man immer im Einkauf.

Nix für ungut & enjoy,
pisa

[Biotechperle]

@pisa

Bist wohl zu spät rein??Hättest mal lieber rechtzeitig auf
Thaiguru hören sollen. Übrigens ist Qgenf bei ca. 4€ sicher wieder eine Überlegung wert,danke für den Tip

Bio

[usercs]

@granitbiss

Selbstverständlich stimme ich dir zu, daß genannte Kursziele auch aus meiner Sicht nicht kurzfristig, möglicherweise nie oder allenfalls in 10-15 Jahren erreicht werden können. Ich fasse diesen Thread nicht vornehmlich als Diskussionsforum auf (dafür gibt es andere hier im Board), sondern als aktuelle Zusammenfassung informativer Artikel zum Thema Gold. Wenn dir diese Artikel zu einseitig bullisch sind, dann kannst du ja gerne kritische (bearische) Artikel zum Thema Gold hereinstellen.
Persönliche Angriffe auf Thaiguru o.a. finde ich jedenfalls unpassend.

[pisa]

@Bio #3350

zu spät rein? :-))
schau in mein recommended Portfolio.

BTW: Thai ist nützlich, aber er verfolgt eigene Interessen, auf Ihn hören bringt nichts. In den letzten 2 Jahren haben nur disziplinierte Tradingansätze Gewinn gemacht (auch und gerade bei Goldminen).

Enjoy,
pisa

[Thoemsi]

Bioperlchen, dein Guru Geschwalle geht einem hier schon wider die Natur. Kannst Du nicht selbständig denken, nur das machen was der Guru vorposaunt?
Dann glaubst Du sicher noch an einen Goldpreisanstieg in diesem Jahr auf min 800 USD, denn das hat der liebe Guru auch mal verkündet...

Traurig, wie selbständig manche Entscheidungen treffen

[sterngleiter]

hallo Thaiguru,

kann dich nur ermuntern mit deinen zweifelsohne sehr guten
Beiträgen weiterzumachen und dich nicht von diesen hirnlosen Provokationen einiger geistiger Übergrößen,
welche -außer sinn-stil-u.-geschmacklosem pupertärem
Gestammel - nichts auf der geistigen Latte haben.

[silvo]

Warum gleich immer 800, 1000 oder 2000?? Es reicht vollkommen aus wenn Gold monatlich 5 USD steigt

[granitbiss]

@ thoemsi

ist gibt immerhin übereinstimmungen

Schau an

MfG

[Thoemsi]

@granatbiss

Ich möchte hier weder jemanden fertigmachen noch jemanden unterstützen. Ich poste lediglich meine Meinung.

schönen Abend

[granitbiss]

#3352

eigentliche lobe ich nicht,

aber hast den Nagen auf den Kopf getroffen

[talvi100]

Ach Leute,ein paar mal hat ThaiGuru schon das Handtuch hier geworfen.

Das sind die sogenannten ThaiGuru Zyklen.

Dann bekommt er von 3 bis 5 Jüngern ein paar Streicheleinheiten und die Kopiermaschine ist wieder in Ordung.

"WETTEN"

Grüße Talvi

[Thoemsi]

#3359

Da könntest Du recht haben Talvi

Gruß Thoemsi

[mickym [VIP]]

Bevor Ihr Euch hier weiter zerfleischt, schaut liber, wie es weitergeht.




Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

Damit die Leser im Board sehen können, dass Du nicht nur ein idiotischer Querulant in fast allen Threads im WGoldboard bist, sondern auch noch ein verkommener Lügner, und Faktenbieger wieder besseres Wissen bist.

Auf Ende Jahr 2002, habe ich niemals von einen Preis beim Gold von 1000 Dollar, ohne das wichtige Voraussetzungen erfüllt würden, gesprochen!

Hier nochmals ein Posting von mir mit Goldpreis Prognosen unter verschiedenen Voraussetzungen bis ende 2002, verfasst am 24. Sept. 2002.

Darin ist klar für jedermann klar ersichtlich was ich gesagt habe, und was nicht. Einige andere User haben diese falsche Unterstellung vom "Granitbiss" natürlich auch schon aufgegriffen und in Ihrem eigenen Interesse verwendet.

Wir stehen jetzt bei der Variante 1, und noch nicht bei 4. Variante, die kommt wie ich vermute 2003 zum tragen!
***

#13 von ThaiGuru 24.09.02 21:27:24 Beitrag Nr.: 7.446.623 7446623
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben DURBAN ROODEPT RC 1 ADR


1. Mit Goldpreismanipulationen und ohne Krieg im Irak, bei 350.- Dollar!

2. Mit Goldpreismanipulationen und mit Krieg im Irak, bei 400.-Dollar!

3. Bei einem freien Goldmarkt, also dem nach Angebot und Nachfrage, ohne Krieg im Irak 600.-$

4. Bei einem freien Goldmarkt, also dem nach Angebot und Nachfrage, mit Krieg im Irak 1000.-$

Falls bis ende Jahr JP-Morgan Chase Manhatten Chapter 11 zu Hilfe ziehen sollte sollte? Golpreisvarianten 3. und 4. das doppelte.[/b]

***

Deine anscheinend bereits verstorbene Mutter, würde sich vermutlich vor Scham im Grabe umdrehen, falls sie sehen könnte, was aus ihrem Kind dem "Granitbiss" geworden ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[talvi100]

Damit du mal auf andere Gedanken kommst!!!

http://finance.lycos.com/home/livecharts/default.asp?symbols…

Grüße Talvi

[Blecheuro]

Bei allem Respekt vor Thai Guru, aber beherrschen kann er sich leider nicht. Deshalb kommt auch nichts Vernünftiges hinsichtlich Kollegialität heraus. Schade!

[keepitshort]

@alle

Deutschland wurde ja durch die US-Agentur Moodys
auf triple A ( AAA ) eingestuft

wie wird eigentlich die USA eingestuft
triple A oder (BBB) ???

wäre ja schön wenn die USA mal heruntergestuft werden
dass könnte dem Goldpreis zusätzlichen Auftrieb geben.

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe / Metalle: Nichts spricht für einen solide weiter steigenden Goldpreis (16.12.2002)

Gold hat die charttechnisch bedeutsame Marke von 330 Dollar je Feinunze überschritten. Damit ist der Weg frei für einen Anstieg in den Bereich von 350 bis 365 Dollar. Doch ob es wirklich so weit kommt, ist alles andere als sicher. Auf der fundamentalen Seite sind nämlich keine überzeugenden Argumente zu erkennen, die einen solchen Anstieg rechtfertigen könnten.

Händler berichten übereinstimmend, der jüngste Aufschwung sei wie schon die meisten vorausgegangenen von spekulativen Fonds getragen worden. Es handelte sich um das klassische Muster: Abdeckungen der Baissiers, die ihre Positionen zugleich drehten, und neue Kaufengagements „alter“ Haussiers.

Die Fonds sind, weil sie fast ausschließlich am Terminmarkt operieren und nur auf Differenzgewinne abzielen, ein flüchtiges Element. Da der jüngste Aufschwung begann, als die Kaufengagements der Spekulation an der Comex in New York bereits sehr hoch waren, sind von dieser Seite her zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt keine zusätzlichen Auftriebskräfte mehr zu erwarten. Im Gegenteil, das Potential für einen vehementen Rückschlag ist extrem hoch, wenn Folgekäufe der Spekulation ausbleiben sollten.

Wenn man die fundamentale Seite etwas beleuchtet, erkennt man, dass der Anstieg des Goldpreises mit einem neuerlichen Schwächeanfall des US-Dollar einherging. Wer in Euro rechnet, hat daher zuletzt bei Gold nichts oder nur wenig gewonnen. Es ist und bleibt so: Gold verhält sich zum Dollar wie eine Währung.

Wenn das Edelmetall weiter anziehen sollte, wird es erst richtig spannend. Die Goldproduzenten, die seit 2001 damit beschäftigt sind, Sicherungs- und Vorausverkäufe aus ihrer künftigen Gewinnung aufzulösen, könnten es sich wieder anders überlegen und erneut mit Sicherungsverkäufen beginnen. Dies würde die Gewichte von Angebot und Nachfrage gravierend verschieben. Mit der Auflösung ihrer Sicherungsverkäufe geht physische Nachfrage der Produzenten einher. Neue Sicherungsverkäufe bedeuten, dass sie sich Gold von Notenbanken und anderen Quellen leihen und es am Markt „als eigenes“ verkaufen.

Beachtet werden sollte noch ein weiterer Aspekt: Europäische Notenbanken wollen erklärtermaßen mehr Gold aus ihren Reserven verkaufen, als es ihnen bis September 2004 möglich ist. Die bis dahin geltenden Grenzen wurden im September 1999 im so genannten „Washingtoner Abkommen“ zwischen 15 europäischen Zentralbanken festgesetzt. Dies geschah, um den Goldproduzenten der „Dritten Welt“ unter die Arme zu greifen und ihnen durch Zurückhaltung beim Verkauf von Notenbankgold Raum für steigende Preise zu verschaffen.

Was würde dagegen sprechen, dass eben diese Notenbanken bei weiter anziehenden Goldpreisen auf die Idee kämen, das Washingtoner Abkommen zu kündigen oder neu zu formulieren? Es könnte argumentiert werden, die Geschäftsbedingungen von heute, nämlich der Goldpreis, seien nicht mehr die vom September 1999. Schließlich hat Altruismus auch seitens der Notenbanken seine Grenzen. Und die Bundesbank scharrt schon lautstark mit den Hufen, um beim Verkauf ihres immensen Goldschatzes auch mal zum Zuge zu kommen.

Dies alles spricht gegen einen solide und nachhaltig weiter steigenden Goldpreis. Die Haussiers sollten also auf der Hut sein.


(23)
TERMINMARKTWELT

[RiverMod]

@ all

Ich bitte Euch im Sinne des "Boardfriedens" Eure Emotionen doch etwas herunterzufahren.Ständige wechselseitige Beleidigungen zerstören die Threads und schaffen nur ein schlechtes Klima.
Danke!

Gruß

River

[silvo]

zu 3366: Selten so viel Mist gelesen,(in Euro gerechnet nichts gewonnen) haben diese Heinis von Terminmarktwelt schon mal was von Goldminen oder Optionsscheinen gehört???

[jeffery2]

Der Knallfrosch schreckt selbst vor toten Müttern nicht zurück.
J2

[Fandrich]

Hallo Thai !

Ich hätte nicht geglaubt wieviel wirres Zeug
innerhalb so kurzer Zeit in einem Infothread
gepostet werden kann.
Die Selbstdarsteller kommen sicherlich wieder
zur Ruhe!


Gruß
Fandrich

[keepitshort]

@silvo

Zitat-Anfang
Selten so viel Mist gelesen,(in Euro gerechnet nichts gewonnen) haben diese Heinis von Terminmarktwelt schon mal was von Goldminen gehört
Zitat-Ende

wer sich unsicher ist
sollte einach
WPKN 865260 Drooy Durban Roodport Deep
oder
Goldfields beobachten.

Wenn der Goldpreis steigt dann steigen die etwas
hefitger als der Goldpreis.

Also ich bin seit 2 Jahren in Goldminen investiert
und habe Gewinner mit Goldminen erzielt
mehr als 20% pro Jahr
während
mein Kollege der Wirtschaft-Ingenieur FH ist
mit seiner buy an hold Strategie
bei SAP, Cisco und Intel
in 2 Jahren 100.000 DM verloren hat
aber er sagt dann zu mir er kann seine Aktien
noch 5, 10 oder sogar 15 Jahre halten
und sowas hat bei einem Professor eine
Diplomarbeit im Wirtschaftsbereich abgeliefert
kaum zu glauben was im öffentlichen Dienst beschäftigt
ist.

[talvi100]

@River

Hat sich ein User bei dir beschwert !?

Grüße Talvi

[ulfur]

Thaiguru,

ich finde Deine Postings lesenswert. Du solltest das Board nicht Leuten wie granitbiss und Lupo überlassen.

Auf dem Drooyboard von yahoo toben sich zuweilen ein paar Spinner aus. Allerdings gibt es dort im Gegensatz zu wo eine Ignorierfunktion.

[RiverMod]

@ talvi100

Sind immer auf Mithilfe von aufmerksamen usern angewiesen,da wir nicht alles lesen können.

Gruß

River

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Du hast recht, doch wenn von einigen Usern Falsche Zitate die ich nie verfasst habe, böswillig, in Umlauf gebracht werden, die noch dazu von anderen Usern unkontrolliert weiterverbreitet werden, muss ich das schon klarstellen dürfen.

Den vielen Usern im Gold Board, die sich um die Sache Gold, und die dazugehörigen aktuellen Informationen interessieren, können mir eine Boardmail mit dem Vermerk "Goldinfo" senden, und schon gibts diese früher hier im Thread geposteten neuen Beiträge weiterhin.

Zwei Goldinfos Boardmails, sind heute schon raus.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[goldenbear2]

Einer muss es ja machen, bis Thai es wieder macht (wie ich hoffe) ;-)

December 16 - Gold $337.10 up $4.10 - Silver $4.68 down 1 cent

Gold Exploding As Per GATA’s Prediction / The World Is Round, Not Flat

The positive gold action is classic and textbook perfect. First, the move up to key $330/$332 MAJOR resistance. Then, the teacup breakout. That was accompanied by the textbook, LATE close on Friday. Clearly, the big league buyers have the upper hand and are toying with The Gold Cartel and the mentally challenged gold establishment groupie crew. Today, we saw the same, furious very late buying pattern as the trapped shorts continue to suck on their thumbs in disbelief. As said in past MIDAS commentary, the smart money is BUYING and they are toying with the cabal crooks.

There are no near-term gaps to fill either. That is a healthy positive from a technical standpoint. We are still due for the major breakaway gap opening, as the gold derivatives neutron bomb continues to ignite.

The Comex open interest only grew by 1950 contracts on Friday and now stands at 200,039 contracts.

The news was gold friendly all over the place;

*The CRB soared AGAIN today, closing at 237.16, up another 2.38 and another multi-year new high. But, there is no inflation.

*The bonds were down almost a full point, reacting to the big day in the stock market and sharply rising commodity prices.

*Gold rose once again, while the dollar was flat. All along I have said the gold move up would lead the dollar down, not the other way around, as commonly written. Facts! Facts! Facts! That is the way it was the first half of this year and that is the way it is now.

*Gold moving sharply higher with a flat dollar and strong stock market is the BEST KIND of gold action, again as oft-repeated here. Almost the entire investment world remains completely oblivious as to why gold can rise without a weak dollar and weak stock market.

Gold is soaring and Wall Street continues to be neutral to bearish. Are they that stupid? Are they that corrupt? Are they that inept? In toto, they have earned their new nickname: Bullion-Banking Bozos!

Finding out about and exposing what Frank Veneroso and Declan Costelloe presented at The Fifth International Gold Symposium in Lima, Peru could not come at a better time. We have Dennis Gartman to thank for that.

The critical point is that Frank’s gold loan/swap work confirms the analysis of the recently published Howe/Bolser report. I worked with Frank and know he really believes his gold loan/swap numbers to be around 15,000 tonnes, or on the higher sides of his estimates. That is around the exact number that Reg comes up with. Both did their calculations differently.

This is staggering news for the gold/investment world. They are going under the assumption that the gold loan/swaps are less than 5,000 tonnes, as per the numbers of Goldfield Mineral Services and the World Gold Council. The Venroso/Howe gold loan/swaps number are three times that of the gold establishment. The ramifications of the discrepancies of the two are extraordinary and will play a significant role as to the major reason why the price of gold is going to go sharply higher in the weeks and months to come.

(...)

In essence, the Howe/Bolser-Veneroso revelations have revealed the size of the gold loans/swaps to be leap-years higher than those of the establishment. This means demand for gold has been much higher than reported for a decade, or more. It means the central banks do not have the gold in their vaults they say they do. It means the monthy, gold supply/demand deficit is much larger than acknowledged by the gold establishment. It means The Gold Cartel is running out of physical metal to continue their scam. And, it means the price of gold has to EXPLODE TO CLEAR THE MARKET!!!

Yet, when confronted with the work of Howe and Veneroso, the establishment/gold world exclaims: "Sorry, the world is flat." They go into complete denial. They refuse to deal with facts, the truth and the real gold story. When asked to debate the Christopher Columbus-like GATA camp, they refuse. Recently, I was told they refuse to do so because we know too much, we focus on the subject too much and our experts are too smart! HUH????

(...)

We cannot say what most of the central banks have in their vaults as reserves and how much has been lent out. What we can say is they are running out of ways to continue on with their fraud. The jig is up. My logic:

Gold certain central banks have stated they have:

US – 8400 tonnes – GATA has extensive communication in which the US has denied any gold mobilization.

IMF – 3000 tonnes – they were forbidden to sell their gold by the US Congress a few years ago and have stated they have not lent their gold.

France – 3000 tonnes – it is in their vaults and we know they have not lent their gold via official statements.

England – the sadsack British still say they have 300 tonnes.

Switzerland – approx 1800 tonnes. We have a pretty good idea what they have lent and sold.

As a result of recent sales, the new official number of central bank gold holdings should be around 32,000 tonnes. The above numbers total 16,500 tonnes. Subtract that from the CB holdings and it means the central banks only have 15,500 tonnes to work with. The analyses of Howe and Veneroso reveal that around 15,000 tonnes is gone. That only leaves 500 tonnes with a yearly supply/demand deficit of at least 1400 tonnes.

The reality of the predicament of The Gold Cartel worsens when you realize the above little ditty means the Italians and Germans must have sold all their gold and so did every other central bank in the world. Now, we know that cannot be. Therefore, somebody is lying and those lies will be exposed because they are running out of gold.

That is why it is so important that the work of Reg and Frank be disseminated as much as possible to the big money world. Those types will "get it" and will want to own as much gold as possible when they have finished doing their own homework. That is why gold is running at this particular point in time. WORD IS OUT AND SPREADING!

The Gold Cartel’s blunder is they have been working with the wrong numbers. In addition, they did not count on the likes of the GATA ARMY to show up via the internet to spoil their scam.

TOO BAD! The world is round, not flat!!

(...)

The common pattern developed since September 11th is THE INVERTED TEA-CUP PATTERN, which may break to the down side this coming week.

James Sinclair noted a TEA -CUP PATTERN related to Gold, which has broken
to the upside.

The INVERTED TEA-CUP PATTERN bodes an ominous sign for the Global Markets

It is starting to look that Gold and Silver will be the only ones sitting on a chair when the music stops !!

(...)
Given that gold did not shrink back in the face of a strong market today might portend something out of the ordinary. The gold charts continue to be reflecting breakouts from the correction of the past few months. They have the look of an exponential pattern. (Look at GG, RGLD, and HMY)

(...)

MAHENDRA MANIA

Four days ago Mahendra predicted in Midas commentary that gold would rise for five days in a row. He has four of them in the bag, one to go. The magical Mahendra man is still looking for a North American publisher. That has to be a winner.

-END-

From GATA’s Chris Powell:

2:42p ET Monday, December 16, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

How could anyone be interested in gold and not
be a member of CBSMarketWatch?

There are two important new commentaries on
gold at CBSMarketWatch today. One is by
Thom Calandra, and it concentrates on gold
share recommendations:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF66E6CC5%2…


The other is by Peter Brimelow. It is headlined
"Mighty Gold Battle Begins," and it quotes
GATA and uses a chart provided by GATA
consultant Mike Bolser. You can find it here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5A5B12BC%2…



CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Gold has now closed above its $337 high of the 1999 Washington Agreement spike. That resistance point was the last hope of The Gold Cartel. They know by now they have been had by big, smart money buyers. They are in the deepest of trouble as are the big hedgers.

Early today, gold share investors could not wait to sell. The Café has been very quiet. The interest coming my way is tame compared to the web site action during the May run-up. I have repeatedly brought these two notations to your attention. They are extraordinarily bullish factors. Few investors out there know what Café members and the GATA followers do. The mainstream press refuses to let the truth out. Therefore, the gold price is soaring and few understand why. Do you think it is another coincidence that the price of gold is exploding ever since the publication of the Howe/Bolser report and the firings of O’Neill and Lindsay?

The HUI came back to close up 6.26 to 143.13, while the XAU climbed 2.82, to 78.21. Both have blown past key resistance at 125 and 70 respectively. Both have not taken out their highs of last spring when gold closed at a high for the move at the time that was $10 lower than today.

(...)

Our day is here.

Since I am not in the investment advice business, I would like to tell you what I am telling myself:

Bill,
I see where there is much commentary out there at the moment about where to sell gold and the shares. Except from the GATA camp, the real gold story has still been kept under raps. Therefore, most everyone in the investment/gold world is not privy as to what is coming and why. Even more remarkably, it is NOW HAPPENING and they are missing the easy money part of a historic market move.

Soon, the establishment will be forced to confront what GATA has discovered. They will realize a gold shortage of incredible proportions is upon us. There will be a gold stampede like never before. It will dwarf the gold rush days of yesteryear.

[ThaiGuru]

NS-Goldbarren als Hakenkreuz über der Schweizer Fahne: Der Einband von Eizenstats Buch. (Keystone)



Den Link zu diesem Bericht, und weitere neue Infos zum Goldgeschehen gibts auf Wunsch, über Board Mail!

Kurze Mitteilung an mich genügt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Gold steigt gerade weiter!

[talvi100]

@River

Kannst du uns mal bitte den aufmerksamen User nennen,der sich bei euch BESCHWERD hat!?


Grüße Talvi

[RiverMod]

@ talvi100

Es gibt doch viele aufmerksame user hier,hoffe ich.Und die ständigen Beleidigungen müssen nun wirklich nicht sein.

Gruß River

[intertainment]

Schaut hier, auch was für Goldfans !!!


Seminar 25.1.: Leuschel, Lips, Bergold, Huber, Saiger


Weltfinanz- und Rentensystem vor dem Kollaps ?
Wie schützen Sie Ihr Vermögen und Ihre Altersvorsorge?


http://www.goldseiten.de/seminare/tagungen.htm

[Dottore Lupo]

@ Blech€uro: genau so steht es geschrieben,wir hatten uns auch mal in der Wolle und es abgehakt.

Aber Thai schlägt aus wie ein Wasserbüffel und will nie einstecken.

Und man sollte in einem Diskussionsboard auch gegenteiliger Meinung sein dürfen und sie dann begründen.

Das laute Hurrageschrei führt immer ins Verderben.

Es ist saugefährlich ...sollte der Pog nur etwas wackeln rutschen die Minen ratzfatz 40 % gen Süden.

Der POG in Rand und in dieser Währung wird am Kap bilanziert steht bei ca. 90.000 und im Januar war er bei 110.000

was das für die Gewinne bedeuted ,welche ja forecasted wurden möchte ich jetzt nicht ausführen.

cu DL...und Thaigurke wird noch von seinen Jüngern gefoltert werden

[talvi100]

@River
Das ist richtig.

Aber meine Frage :

"Kannst du uns mal bitte den aufmerksamen User nennen,der sich bei euch BESCHWERD hat!?"

hast du noch nicht beantwortet!!!

Grüße Talvi

[bluemoons]

Editorial: Die Rohstoffmärkte werden 2003 viel Spekulationskapital anziehen (17.12.2002)

Der Herdentrieb ist es und wird es in Zukunft wohl immer mehr sein, der Anleger und Spekulanten in die Rohstoffmärkte treibt. „Alternative Investments“ lautet das Stichwort in der wohl zutreffenden Erkenntnis, dass die Aktien- und die Anleihemärkte in den nächsten Jahren bei weitem nicht mehr die Anlageergebnisse bringen werden, die in der zweiten Hälfte der neunziger Jahre üblich waren.

Das World Gold Council zieht bereits seit einer Weile mit der Marketing-Devise über die Dörfer, Gold biete sich als ideales alternatives Investment an. Man mag anderer Ansicht sein, aber das ist ein Signal. Warum nur Gold und nicht auch Silber oder Platin? Und dann könnte es Kupfer sein. Sojabohnen sind auch beliebt, wie jene wissen, die sich noch an die frühen siebziger Jahre erinnern.

Für viele werden diese Alternativen, zu denen natürlich auch Schweinebäuche zählen, neu sein. Wichtig ist bei allem, dass die Risikoakzeptanz in den vergangenen zehn Jahren in immer breiteren Kreisen immer mehr gewachsen ist, wenn sich auch die Risikoscheu nach den Erfahrungen der drei zurückliegenden Jahre noch immer auf hohem Niveau bewegt. Doch wenn Risiken erst einmal akzeptiert sind, verfliegt die Scheu mit fortschreitender Zeit und sich bietenden neuen tatsächlichen oder vermeintlichen Chancen.

Vor allem für kommerzielle Operateure an den Rohstoffmärkten und den ihnen jeweils nachgeordneten Terminbörsen schafft die mit an Sicherheit grenzender Wahrscheinlichkeit zunehmende Spekulationsbereitschaft immer breiterer Kreise zusätzlich Risiken, aber auch Chancen. Die Schwankungsanfälligkeit der Märkte wird steigen, aber es werden sich auch ausgeprägtere Trends herausbilden.

Die meisten Terminspekulanten, ob sie nun auf eigene Faust vorgehen oder zum Lager der Terminfonds zählen, handeln nach Trendfolgemethoden und berücksichtigen fundamentale Faktoren mangels ausreichender Kenntnisse oder aus Überzeugung gar nicht erst. Das schafft Möglichkeiten, widrigen Entwicklungen mit einer Kombination von umsichtiger fundamentaler und technischer Analyse mit Erfolg zu begegnen.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber

Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

Flucht in Rohstoffe?

Von Claus Vogt

Der CRB-Commodity-Index ist gewissermaßen der Dow Jones der Warenterminmärkte. Er setzt sich zusammen aus 17 gleichgewichteten Komponenten: Weizen, Mais, Bohnen, Rinder, Schweine, Kaffee, Kakao, Zucker, Orangensaft, Gold, Silber, Platin, Rohöl, Heizöl, Erdgas, Kupfer und Baumwolle. In der durch zuerst hohe Inflationsraten und darauf folgend hohe Inflationserwartungen geprägten Zeit von etwa 1970 bis Ende der 1980er war dieser Index in aller Munde. Nachdem ab etwa 1980/81 eine ausgeprägte Phase rückläufiger Inflationsraten einsetzte (trotz hoher Inflationserwartungen), schwand nach und nach das breite Interesse an den Rohstoffen. In unserem Indikatoren-Arsenal spielt dieser Index nach wie vor eine wichtige Rolle und leistet uns gute Dienste bei der Einschätzung und Prognose der US-amerikanischen Notenbankpolitik.

Seit Ende 1980 befindet sich der CRB-Index in einem langfristigen Abwärtstrend. Das letzte zyklische Tief im Oktober 2001 lag etwas über seinem Vorgänger von 1999 und leitete einen steilen Aufwärtstrend ein. Dieser führte bis an eine Abwärtstrendlinie, die im Bereich der Hochs des Jahres 2000 verläuft. Aus charttechnischer Sicht befindet sich dieser Index somit an einer langfristig sehr wichtigen Marke. Ein Anstieg über 235 Punkte würde mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eine Trendwende signalisieren, also den Beginn eines langfristigen Aufwärtstrends, der in diesem Bereich allgemein als Inflation bezeichnet wird. Kürzerfristige Charts sowie die Analyse einzelner Komponenten des Index sprechen für eine Fortsetzung der Aufwärtsbewegung und somit für einen Ausbruch nach oben in den nächsten Monaten. Daraus ergeben sich selbstverständlich Chancen für Unternehmen, die von steigenden Rohstoffpreisen profitieren.

Allerdings sehen wir die Bedeutung dieser Analyse als sehr viel weitreichender an, da sie auf inflationäre Gefahren hinweist. Zu diesem Szenario passen natürlich die in den USA seit Jahren deutlich wachsenden Geld- und Kreditmengen sowie die weltweit aus dem Ruder laufenden Staatshaushalte. Außerdem hat die US-Notenbank keinen Zweifel daran gelassen, vor keiner inflationären Maßnahme zurückzuschrecken, auch nicht vor von ihr als unkonventionell bezeichneten. Der politische Wille, die selbstverschuldeten Probleme per Inflation „zu lösen“, ist unzweifelhaft vorhanden. Es mehren sich die Zeichen einer erfolgreichen Umsetzung dieses Konzeptes. Die hohe Popularität, die das Deflationsszenario in den vergangenen Monaten erfahren hat, hat uns aus massenpsychologischer Sicht heraus zusätzlich für gegenläufige Anzeichen sensibilisiert. Vielleicht handelt es sich ja nur um ein inflationäres Zwischenspiel, dem eine Deflationswelle folgt. Oder wir steuern auf ein Szenario zu, in dem beide Tendenzen gleichzeitig, aber in verschiedenen Sektoren wirken. Beispielsweise könnten sich in Bereichen mit untragbar hoher Schuldenlast die deflationären Tendenzen durchsetzen. Aufgrund der herben Verluste, die die Aktienmärkte schon beschert haben und die den Immobilienmärkten vielleicht noch bevorstehen, könnte es zu einer Art Flucht in die relativ knappen realen Güter der Rohstoffmärkte kommen.


Claus Vogt leitet das Research der Berliner Effektenbank.

[Eurocop2000]

alias Rumpelstilzchen

Obwohl der Goldpreis neue Hoch`s erklomm, blieben die Kurse der Goldminen unter den letzten Höchstständen.
Es ist also noch viel Angst und Mißtrauen bei den Anlegern. Das ist gut so und spricht für einen nachhaltigen Anstieg. Ich kaufe zu!!

[granitbiss]

#3386

auch wenn Du Recht hast :
Du machst Dich mit solchen Bemerkungen beim
hiesigen "Anti-Gold-Thrust" wohl doch sehr unbeliebt.

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
Gold kostet nun schon über 340 Dollar je Feinunze

17. Dezember 2002 Nach einem Tag Verschnaufpause wird am Dienstag der Glanz des Goldes weiter aufpoliert. Letztlich begünstigt durch den schwachen Dollar gelang dem Edelmetall nun sogar der Sprung über die Marke von 340 Dollar. Gegen 8.45 Uhr kostet die Feinunze 341,12 Dollar, nachdem das Nachmittagsfixing in London am Montagnachmittag noch bei 333,00 Dollar lag.

Neben dem schwachen Dollar, der Käufe für die meisten Nachfrager günstiger macht, erweist sich die Angst vor einem baldigen Krieg gegen den Irak als Kursstütze. Eine der allerdings vage anmutenden Spekulationen dabei lautet auch, dass ein hoher Ölpreis die Inflation wiederbeleben könnte. Ermutigt durch diese Umstände und durch den als charttechnisch bedeutsam eingestuften Sprung über die Hürde von 330 Dollar hätten zuletzt institutionelle Anleger am Terminmarkt in größerem Umfang spekulative Longpositionen aufgebaut, heißt es.

Australisches Institut gibt vorsichtigen Ausblick

„Eigentlich sollte man meinen, Gold könne nicht weiter steigen. Aber wer weiss? Es gibt einfach zu viele externe Faktoren - politische und solche Sachen,“ kommentierte ein Händler die derzeitige Ausgangslage. Hinzu kommt, dass nach den jüngsten Preisaufschlägen, die zu den höchsten Notierungen seit über fünf Jahren führten, rein charttechnisch gesehen ein Test der bis rund 360 Dollar reichenden nächsten Zielzone auf der Agenda zu stehen scheint.

Skeptisch hinsichtlich der Nachhaltigkeit des Anstiegs beim Goldpreis zeigt sich dagegen das Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource and Economics (Abare). Die Rally des Edelmetallpreises werde 2003 zu Ende gehen, da die Anleger sich von diesem Markt weg orientieren würden, heißt es im Bericht zum vierten Quartal 2002. Es gebe Anzeichen dafür, dass einige der Faktoren, die den Goldpreis von Dezember 2001 bis November 2002 um 22 Prozent steigen ließen, im kommenden Jahr nicht mehr den Markt stützen werden.

Andere Anlageformen womöglich wieder gefragter

Nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 hatte sich das Ansehen von Gold als sicherer Anlagehafen neu entfaltet. Eine Reduzierung von Hedgeverkäufen durch Produzenten, ein schwächerer Dollarkurs, der Anstieg der Ölpreise sowie geopolitische Spannungen trugen dazu bei, dass der Goldpreis im Aufwind gewesen sei. Wenn sich die Weltwirtschaft jedoch 2003 erholt, werden die Investoren nach Ansicht von Abare sich von defensiven Anlagemöglichkeiten wie Gold zurückziehen und zu anderen Aktiva wechseln, die höhere Renditen versprechen.

Bei den Investmentfonds konstatiert Abare eine zunehmende Umorientierung zu Anleihen, Bargeld und Immobilien. Das Institut erwartet denn auch für 2003 einen durchschnittlichen Goldpreis von nur noch 295 Dollar je Feinunze, das wäre ein Rückgang um 4,5 Prozent gegenüber den für 2002 erwarteten 309 Dollar je Feinunze.

Schmucksektor dürfte mehr nachfragen

Positiver sieht Abare die Nachfrageentwicklung des Schmucksektors. Diese werde sich 2003 auf 3.650 Tonnen von voraussichtlich 3.370 Tonnen im laufenden Jahr erhöhen, denn der Goldpreis werde sinken, während sich die Wirtschaft in den wichtigen Verbraucherländern belebt.

Wenn Sie wissen wollen, wie mit Martin Siegel der in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten erfolgsreichste Goldminen-Fondsmanager (PEH Q Goldmines) die weiteren Aussichten in dem Sektor einschätzt, dann finden Sie dazu unter dem Link „Mit Goldminen sind relativ sicher Gewinne drin“ nähere Informationen

[bluemoons]

Interview
„Auch 2003 sind mit Goldminen relativ sicher Gewinne drin“

16. Dezember 2002 Die jüngste Stärke des Goldpreises hält auch zum Wochenauftakt unverändert an. Mit 334,95 Dollar je Feinunze wurde am Montag ein neues Hoch seit dem Oktober 1987 markiert. Während die wichtigsten Aktienmärkte in der Welt fielen, blickt das Edelmetall in diesem jahr auf ein Plus von rund 20 Prozent zurück.

Mit Goldminenaktien, die in der Regel überproportional von steigenden Goldpreisen profitierten, war sogar noch mehr Geld zu verdienen. Diese Entwicklung kam natürlich auch den Goldfonds zu Gute. So kam der PEH Q-Goldmines (WKN: 986 366) als bester Vertreter seines Faches in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten um fast 65 Prozent voran (siehe unten angehängte Performance-Tabelle). Angelockt durch den Aufwärtstrend beim Gold fragten wir den zuständigen Fondsmanager Martin Siegel im nachfolgenden Interview nach seiner Meinung zu den weiteren Aussichten des Sektors.

Herr Siegel, der Goldpreis ist zuletzt auf ein Fünfjahreshoch gestiegen. Rechnen sie mit weiteren Avancen?

Erst einmal eines vorweg: Der Goldpreis ist ein Spielball verschiedener Macht- und Marktinteressen, und es lässt sich einfach keine verlässliche Preisprognose machen. Deshalb hege ich keine Preishoffnungen. Aber gefühlsmäßig erwarte ich wegen dem positiven Umfeld natürlich steigende Preise, und es lassen sich auch etliche trendbestätigende Argumente finden.

Hat der von Charttechniker vielbeachtete Sprung über 330 Dollar je Feinunze für Sie ebenfalls eine große Bedeutung?

Diese charttechnische wichtige Marke birgt vielmehr sogar die Gefahr, dass sie gezielte Markteingriffe provoziert, deren Ziel es sein kann, dann jetzt vollzogenen Ausbruch letztlich als Fehlsignal darzustellen. Man darf bei allen Überlegungen schließlich nicht vergessen, dass es viele Investmentbanken gibt mit großen Shortpositionen im Gold, die keinerlei Interesse an einem steigenden Goldpreis haben.

Wie agieren Sie vor diesem Hintergrund bei der Zusammensetzung Ihres Fonds?

Ich suche nach Goldminen, die bei einem steigenden Goldpreis überproportional profitieren, aber bei einem fallenden Goldpreis nicht gefährdet sind. Da komme ich dann als Favoriten auf Harmony Gold und Gold Fields aus Südafrika und in Australien auf Croesus Mining und Kingsgate Consolidated. Diese Werte sind in meinem Fonds auch am höchsten gewichtet.

Was für ein Kurspotenzial weisen diese Titel auf, wenn der Goldpreis um zehn Prozent steigt?

Dann erwarte ich hier Kursgewinne von 30 bis 50 Prozent.

Wie ist es möglich, dass diese Werte dann nicht auch bei fallenden Goldpreisen stärker leiden sollen?

Weil diese Unternehmen sehr hohe Gewinne produzieren und ein niedriges Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) haben. Zudem wachsen diese Gesellschaften und zahlen eine relativ hohe Dividende. Wirklich gefährdet wären diese Firmen erst bei einem Goldpreis von unter 250 Dollar.

Ist die jüngste Stärke des Rand aber nicht ein Problem für die von Ihnen genannten südafrikanischen Titel?

Ja, auf jeden Fall, denn die Gewinnspanne reduziert sich dadurch. Dies ist aus meiner SIcht aber bei KGV´s von sieben bis acht schon in den Kursen enthalten. Es war schon immer eingepreist, dass der Rand nicht immer so schwach bleibt wie im Vorjahr. Bei Harmony Gold ist auch zu bedenken, dass Gold Field weltweit absolut gesehen die meisten Gewinne erwirtschaftet hat. Selbst wenn der Gewinn um 25 Prozent fallen sollte, wäre das KGV von zehn noch immer günstig. Trotzdem habe natürlich auch ich die Gewichtung südafrikanische Minen im Fonds tendenziell gesenkt und im Gegenzug die der ebenfalls sehr günstig bewerteten australischen Titel erhöht.

Schlägt sich bei Ihnen die feste Verfassung des Goldpreises auch in den Mittelzuflüssen nieder?

Ja, auf jeden Fall. Gerade in den vergangenen Wochen hat sich das Interesse und das Mittelaufkommen noch einmal zusätzlich belebt. Nach sechs Millionen Euro zum Jahresanfang verwalten wir jetzt rund 21 Millionen Euro.

Was haben Sie sich nach der sehr guten Performance in diesem Jahr für 2003 zum Ziel gesetzt?

Falls sich der Ausbruch über 330 Dollar beim Goldpreis bestätigt und es kein klassisch produziertes Fehlsignal ist, was kurzfristig betrachtet ebenfalls durchaus möglich ist, dann liegt mein Preisziel bei 360 Dollar. Unter der Annahme, dass über die Hebelwirkung die Goldminenaktien bei einem Plus des Goldpreises von zehn Prozent um 30 bis 50 Prozent steigen werden, kann auch der Fonds im Jahr 2003 auf einen Wertzuwachs von 30 bis 50 Prozent kommen. Das wünsche und erhoffe ich mir und das kann auch relativ wahrscheinlich so eintreffen.

[Dottore Lupo]

na denne ,ab jetzt kapere ich den angeschossenen Frachter der Thaigurke und werde meine Sicht der Dinge darlegen.

Hängt den Kerl auf der höchsten Rahe auf...er ist wieder für ein desaster in Geldbeuteln der Lemminge verantwortlich

Und Gold steigt auf 10.000 Us $ im Jahr 2180 ca Spätherbst

cu DL

[ThaiGuru]

@Lupo mit Doktor Titel

Schreib ruhig auch mal was im WBoard

Du hälst Dich ja sonst immer so zurück

Also Du glaubst jetzt Gold wird stark fallen, und alle Goldbugs werden mich nachher dafür hassen wie Du gestern in einem Deiner "raren" vor Intelligenz nur so strotzenden Postings schriebst.

Du hast ja auch schon vor fallenden Goldpreisen gewarnt, als Gold den letzten 5 tägigen Anstieg noch nicht gemacht hatte. Hast Du sicher schon vergessen.

Das ist anscheinend Deine Art Dinge zu Sagen, unnütze Dinge. Und dazu immer auch sehr höflich.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Dottore Lupo]

@ Thaigurke:altes Lügenmaul...ich schrieb von einem Pog von 10.000 und ich schrieb von fallenden Minen.

Aber solche Zusammenhänge sind dir ja nicht geläufig.

Du wirst noch kielgeholt..da zieht man einen wie dich an einem Seil mehrmals unter dem Kiel des fahrenden Schiffes hindurch.....husch ,husch zurück in den Urwald mit dir.

cu DL...der Pirat im Gurkenmeer

[ThaiGuru]

@Lupo mit Doktor Titel

Also muss schon sagen, Du hast mich jetzt schon ein wenig überrascht.

Du denkst der Goldpreis steigt auf 10000.- und die Aktien der Gold Minen werden fallen!

Also das musst Du mir bitte, bitte, unbedingt schon etwas ausführlicher erklären.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Quelle: Wallstreet Online 18. Dezember 2002, 13:57 Uhr

Conseco: Neue Megapleite in den USA

Die Pleite des US-Versicherers hat sich angekündigt. Noch Mitte 2001 war die Aktie 20 Dollar wert, im Mai 2002 5 Dollar, heute 4 Cent. Die Pleite ist ein Warnschuss für das Finanzsystem.

Nein, sonderlich bekannt ist Conseco in Deutschland nicht, und so wird die Pleite des US-Versicherers vor allem von Privatanlegern nur am Rande notiert. Dabei ist das Desaster größer als jüngst bei UAL: Der Chapter-11-Antrag des Unternehmens ist die drittgrößte Pleite in den USA, direkt nach Worldcom und Enron. Grund für den Konkurs sind vor allem die massiven Zukäufe des Konzerns in den 90er-Jahren, wobei vor allem die Akquisition von Green Tree Financial massive Probleme mit faulen Krediten eingebracht hat.

6,5 Mrd. Dollar Verbindlichkeiten drücken den Versicherer, der rund 14.000 Mitarbeiter beschäftigt und nun für die Muttergesellschaft und einige Töchter Gläubigerschutz beantragt hat.
Nicht in den Antrag einbezogen sind Conseco Direct Life und die Vermögensverwaltungs-Töchter, wie zum Beispiel Conseco Capital Management, die rund 52 Mrd. Dollar Kundengelder verwalten.

Das Desaster hatte sich allerdings lange angekündigt: Seit mehreren Monaten hat das Unternehmen vergeblich mit einem Teil der Gläubigern über die Restrukturierung der Schuldenlast verhandelt, während man mit den Banken weitgehende Übereinstimmung verzeichnete.

Die Aktie ist zwischenzeitlich auf 4 Cent abgesackt, nachdem Mitte 2001 noch 20 Dollar für das Papier über den Tisch gingen. Seit dem Sommer Conseco wird nur noch im Freiverkehr gehandelt. Gestern wurden rund 11 Mio. Aktien umgesetzt.

Mit den gestellten Anträgen auf Gläubigerschutz sollen die insolventen Gesellschaften auf einen Verkauf vorbereitet werden. Interessiert ist CFN Investments. Das Unternehmen ist ein Joint Venture von Cerberus, Fortress und J.C. Flowers. Am Markt wird nun spekuliert, ob es weitere Unternehmen gibt, die ähnlich wie Conseco massiv zugekauft haben und eventuell vor der Pleite stehen könnten.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Die Charts zur Gold Mail 6 vom 18. Dezember 2002


.

.

.

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt schon wieder!

[Khampan]

Comdirect hat seit kurzem neue Zeitfenster bei den Charts. Besonders gut gefällt mir der 10-Tage-Chart, auch wenn da noch der Freitag fälschlich durch den Sonntag ersetzt ist:



Khampan

[ThaiGuru]

@Khampan

Finde den Chart auch sehr nützlich, und vor allem übersichtlich, um die Goldpreis Entwicklung, der letzten 10 Tage zu sehen.

Hier noch der direkte Link zu diesem Chart!

http://cdchart.innovative-software.com/_common/informer/lib/…

[ThaiGuru]

Dieser Analyst bei Wallstreet Online scheint die Zeichen der Zeit erkannt zu haben!



Der COMPX liegt 1,16 % in den Miesen, der SPX liegt wieder unter 900 bei 897 (-0,7 %) und der SOX flirtet mit seiner 308er Marke. Lediglich Gold und Versorger liegen im Plus. Der OSX kämpft auch mit einem Abschlag von 1,5 % und zwei unserer drei Ölwerte liegen im Minus.

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/main.php?&actio…

[konby]

( BW)(LA-BLANCHARD-&-CO) Barrick Gold Corp. And J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Accused by Blanchard and Company Of $2 Billion Illegal Gold Market Manipulation

Business Editors

NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 18, 2002--An anti-trust lawsuit filed today accuses Barrick Gold Corp., Toronto, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York City, of "unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold" and making (US)$2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors.

[granitbiss]

@ conmuchomani

Danke für den interessanten Beitrag.

Persönlich bin ich der Meinung, dass man nicht unbedingt in Rußland (in anderen Fällen von Goldminen Griechenland, Türkei usw. das Geld der Aktionäre investieren sollte)


Nebenbei nur eine kleine Frage :
@Thai

User denunzieren, keine antworten geben..
aber der gr0ße Gugelhopf im Board...
Ha...


Thai schriebt, Du wärst seit 1999 im Goldbard und begrüßt Dich ja auch recht herzlich.

Deinen Userangaben nach, bist Du zwar seit 1999 registriert,
hast 5 Theads bis heute und 25 Postings.

Alles nur postive Dinge, die von einer gewissen vornehmen Zürückhaltung zeugen !!

@ Thai
woher kommen diese neuen User-Kenntnisse ??

NB
Stört Dich diesmal nicht die geringe Anzahl von Postings, Threads usw.

Heue wieder Nachrichten ohne prüfbaren Ibhalt.
Und Tah , der keine 2-3 Teilnehmer für seine Boardmails bekommt

Nicg für ungut aber deeine Lü.......

[ThaiGuru]

@konby

Du lässt mein Gold Bug Herz frohlocken!

Habe die Meldung gerade in einer Mail von GATA gelesen

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.blanchardonline.com/



Blanchard and Company, Inc., is America`s largest retail dealer in gold, silver, and platinum bullion, as well as rare coins and other hard asset investments.

Diese Firma soll Barrick Gold Corp. und J.P. Morgan Chase wegen Goldpreis Manipulation im Umfange von 2 Milliarden
US Dollar verklagt haben, falls diese Meldung zutreffend sein sollte. Zur Sicherheit habe ich die Firma angefagt, ob sie wirklich eine Klage eingereicht haben, um ganz sicher zu sein, dass es sich sich nicht um eine Falschmeldung handelt. Warte zur Zeit auf Antwort.

Falls die Meldung echt sein sollte, und der grösste retail Händler für Gold, Silber, und Platin Münzen, Amerikas, wirklich geklagt hat, dürfte die Meldung eigentlich morgen schon in allen amerikanischen Zeitungen stehen. Und mit maximal 1 Tag Verspätung, auch in Europa.

Was das für den weiteren Verlauf des Goldpreises bedeuten würde, brauche ich Euch wohl nicht näher zu erläutern.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[crashkommt]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[konradi]

sorry thai, daß ich Dir "zuvorkomme"

hier die ganze Meldung:

( BW)(LA-BLANCHARD-&-CO) Barrick Gold Corp. And J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Accused by Blanchard and Company Of $2 Billion Illegal Gold Market Manipulation

Business Editors

NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 18, 2002--An anti-trust lawsuit filed today accuses Barrick Gold Corp., Toronto, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York City, of "unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold" and making (US)$2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors.
The suit was filed by Blanchard and Company, Inc., New Orleans, the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the United States, and by Blanchard clients who bought gold bullion. Blanchard (www.blanchardonline.com) is paying the costs of the suit, which asks the Federal Court to terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks. It also seeks the payment of treble damages to Blanchard`s clients for the losses they have suffered as a result of Barrick`s and J.P. Morgan Chase`s unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices.
"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and J.P. Morgan began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand," stated Blanchard`s Chief Executive Officer, Donald W. Doyle, Jr. "If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760."
The lawsuit claims that in the past five years Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market - additions that were several times as great as the annual production of every gold mine in South Africa, the largest gold producing nation in the world. By using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing the addition of billions of dollars worth of (physical) gold with off-balance sheet accounting, Barrick was able to make it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions.
"The same type of accounting maze that hid Enron`s debts made it possible for Barrick to manipulate the price of gold without the checks and balances that come from public scrutiny. As a percentage of Barrick`s total assets, its off-balance sheet assets make Enron look like a champion of full disclosure," said Doyle. "Is Barrick a gold mining company, or is it a hedge fund with a mine out back?"
The suit alleges that J.P. Morgan Chase financed Barrick`s repeated short selling with remarkably advantageous terms not available to others, including deferred repayments and no margin calls. Doyle said the short-sales scheme between the bank and Barrick appears to be the proverbial "money for nothing."
"Over the past five years, J.P. Morgan Chase loaned gold to Barrick at approximately 1.5 percent; sold the gold into the market and invested the dollar proceeds at approximately 6.5 percent; then paid both the proceeds from the sales and the 5 percent interest differential to Barrick whenever it repaid any of the borrowed gold. During a period when the price of gold dropped by more than 25%, Barrick`s annual operating cash flow increased by more than 400%."
"In 1983, Barrick was a start-up with a single mine in Canada, a founder with no experience in the gold business, and principal investors from Saudi Arabia. Today, through a combination of market manipulation and a 1992 transaction that the U.S. Secretary of the Interior described as `the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy,` Barrick has amassed off-balance sheet assets that are worth more than the market capitalizations of the next five biggest gold mining companies in the world combined," said Doyle.
Doyle explained that "Blanchard and Company was founded on the belief that gold and other tangible assets are essential to proper portfolio diversification. However, because of the illegal manipulation of its price, we advised our clients to avoid gold like the plague until such time as the free market laws of supply and demand were allowed to dictate the price. We believe that the anti-trust lawsuit filed today will stop the illegal suppression of the price of gold and other hard assets and return them to their roles as stores of value and financial insurance."
The suit was filed by the law firm of Jones, Verras & Freiberg, LLC of New Orleans in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana. It is document number 02-3721 Section C, Blanchard and Company, Inc. V. Barrick Gold Corporation; J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and ABC Companies. A web site is being set up to provide ongoing information, www.savegold.com.


--30--ajb/cgo*

CONTACT: Blanchard and Company, Inc. and Save Gold
Neal R. Ryan, 888/531-4653

KEYWORD: LOUISIANA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: LEGAL/LAW MINING/METALS
SOURCE: Blanchard and Company, Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

@konradi

Das ist ja eine richtige Wohltat!

Habe bis jetzt noch keine Antwort, doch wenn es "Business Wire" verbreitet, muss es wohl stimmen.

Die Gold Verschwörungstheoretiker, wie ich selbst, und viele andere auch, werden nun evtl. bald ein anderes Betätigungsfeld suchen müssen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silvo]

Gold strong buy (Ich geb kein Stück ab)

[Gringo1]

Bank of NY war heut auch nicht fad, satte -15%

[ThaiGuru]

The Street.com

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10059330.html?…

Suit Alleges J.P. Morgan, Barrick Kept Lid on Gold

By Rebecca Byrne
Staff Reporter
12/18/2002 03:42 PM EST



J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) were named in an antitrust lawsuit Wednesday, accused of conspiring to hold the price of gold down.

The lawsuit, filed by the nation`s largest retail gold dealer, Blanchard & Co., and its clients, alleged that Barrick and Morgan unlawfully combined to actively manipulate the price of gold, making short-selling profits of $2 billion in the process.

Shares of J.P. Morgan fell 4% to $23.97 while Barrick was down 1% to $15.68.

Blanchard said it is seeking to terminate trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan and other unnamed bullion banks.

The firm is also seeking damages to pay for losses suffered by its clients as the alleged result of what it called "unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices."

"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick Gold Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand. If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760," Blanchard claimed.

In the past five years, Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase brought "millions of additional ounces of gold into the market - additions that were several times as great as the annual production of every gold mine in South Africa, the largest gold producing nation in the world," according to Blanchard.

"By using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing the addition of billions of dollars worth of (physical) gold with off-balance sheet accounting, Barrick was able to make it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions" Blanchard added.

The firm alleges that J.P. Morgan "financed Barrick`s repeated short selling with remarkably advantageous terms not available to others, including deferred repayments and no margin calls."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_sessi…

Dec. 18, 2002. 03:49 PM

U.S. dealer sues Barrick, J.P. Morgan over gold prices


FROM CANADIAN PRESS

A New Orleans retail gold dealer has filed a lawsuit against Barrick Gold Corp. and J. P. Morgan Chase alleging they manipulated the price of gold.

Blanchard and Co., the largest retail dealer in gold coins and bullion in the United States, said today it filed the suit along with clients who bought gold bullion.

Blanchard accuses Toronto-based Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase of New York of "unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold," and alleges they made "$2 billion (U.S.) in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors."


Blanchard, which is paying the costs of the suit, said it has asked the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana to "terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J. P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks."

Contrary to an initial press release, Neal Ryan, a spokesman for Blanchard, said the company is not seeking any damages as part of its lawsuit, but it wants the trading agreements and alleged illegal activities to end.

Barrick Gold is Canada`s largest gold producer and the world`s second-largest. J. P. Morgan Chase is a major financial holding company and investment bank.

Shares in Barrick (TSX: ABX) declined 62 cents to $24.03 on the Toronto stock market. Shares in J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) fell 91 cents to $24.11 (U.S.) on the New York stock market

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2002/12/18/barrick021218

Barrick Gold, J.P. Morgan Chase accused of manipulating gold market

Last Updated Wed, 18 Dec 2002 16:09:21

NEW ORLEANS, LA. - The largest retail dealer of gold coins and bullion in the United States filed an anti-trust lawsuit Wednesday against Barrick Gold and investment bank J.P. Morgan Chase, accusing the companies of conspiring to illegally manipulate the gold market.

The lawsuit was filed by Blanchard and Co. of New Orleans on behalf of its clients who bought gold bullion.

A statement from Blanchard said its suit alleges that Barrick and J.P. Morgan injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market so that the companies made $2-billion US in short-selling profits "by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors."

"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and J.P. Morgan began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 US if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand," Blanchard chief executive Donald Doyle said in a statement.

"If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760 US," Doyle said.

Gold was quoted at $342.70 US in early afternoon trading Wednesday, up $4.70 US.

Blanchard is alleging that Barrick used private derivative contracts and engaged in off-balance sheep accounting to conceal the addition of billions of dollars worth of gold. The Blanchard statement says Barrick`s actions made it "virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions."

Blanchard says J.P. Morgan financed Barrick`s alleged short selling with "remakably advantageous terms not available to others."

Blanchard is asking the Federal Court in New Orleans to terminate the alleged trading agreement between Barrick and J.P. Morgan.

None of the lawsuit`s allegations have been proven in court.

There was no immediate comment from Barrick or J.P. Morgan.

Barrick Gold shares lost 20 cents to close at $24.45; J.P. Morgan shares fell $1.02 US to close at $24 US. Blanchard is a privately-held company.


Written by CBC News Online staff

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/BU0212/S00170.htm

J.P.Morgan Chase Illegal Gold Market Manipulation

Thursday, 19 December 2002, 10:31 am

Press Release:


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

December 18, 2002

News media contact:
Neal R. Ryan [phone]
Blanchard and Company, Inc., and Save Gold


Barrick Gold Corp. And J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. Accused Of $2 Billion Illegal Gold Market Manipulation

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- An anti-trust lawsuit filed today accuses Barrick Gold Corp., Toronto, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York City, of "unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold" and making (US)$2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors.

The suit was filed by Blanchard and Co. Inc. of New Orleans, the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the United States, and by Blanchard clients who bought gold bullion. Blanchard (www.blanchardonline.com) is paying the costs of the suit, which asks the federal court to terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed bullion banks. Blanchard believes its clients have suffered substantial losses as a result of Barrick`s and J.P. Morgan Chase`s unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices.

"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and J.P. Morgan began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand," stated Blanchard`s chief executive officer, Donald W.Doyle Jr. "If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760."

The lawsuit claims that in the past five years Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase injected millions of ounces of additional gold into the market -- additions that were several times as great as the annual production of every gold mine in South Africa, the largest gold producing nation in the world. By using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing the addition of billions of dollars worth of (physical) gold with off-balance sheet accounting, Barrick was able to make it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions.

"The same type of accounting maze that hid Enron`s debts made it possible for Barrick to manipulate the price of gold without the checks and balances that come from public scrutiny. As a percentage of Barrick`s total assets, its off-balance sheet assets make Enron look like a champion of full disclosure," said Doyle. "Is Barrick a gold mining company, or is it a hedge fund with a mine out back?"

The suit alleges that J.P. Morgan Chase financed Barrick`s repeated short selling with remarkably advantageous terms not available to others, including deferred repayments and no margin calls. Doyle said the short-sales scheme between the bank and Barrick appears to be the proverbial "money for nothing."

"Over the past five years, J.P. Morgan Chase loaned gold to Barrick at approximately 1.5 percent; sold the gold into the market, and invested the dollar proceeds at approximately 6.5 percent; then paid both the proceeds from the sales and the 5 percent interest differential to Barrick whenever it repaid any of the borrowed gold. During a period when the price of gold dropped by more than 25 percent, Barrick`s annual operating cash flow increased by more than 400 percent."

"In 1983, Barrick was a start-up with a single mine in Canada, a founder with no experience in the gold business, and principal investors from Saudi Arabia. Today, through a combination of market manipulation and a 1992 transaction that the U.S. secretary of the interior described as `the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy,` Barrick has amassed off-balance sheet assets that are worth more than the market capitalizations of the next five biggest gold mining companies in the world combined," said Doyle.

Doyle explained that "Blanchard and Co. was founded on the belief that gold and other tangible assets are essential to proper portfolio diversification. However, because of the illegal manipulation of its price, we advised our clients to avoid gold like the plague until such time as the free market laws of supply and demand were allowed to dictate the price. We believe that the anti-trust lawsuit filed today will stop the illegal suppression of the price of gold and other hard assets, and return them to their roles as stores of value and financial insurance."

The suit was filed by the law firm of Jones, Verras & Freiberg LLC of New Orleans in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana. It is document number 02-3721 Section C, Blanchard and Co. Inc. v. Barrick Gold Corp.; J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and ABC Companies. A web site is being set up to provide ongoing information, http://www.savegold.com.

-END-

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.savegold.com/

C U R R E N T . M E D I A . E V E N T
Blanchard Press Release

C U R R E N T . L I T I G A T I O N . E V E N T
Complaint for Injunctive Relief

In order to save gold, a lawsuit was filed by Blanchard and Company, Inc., the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the United States, and by Blanchard clients who bought gold bullion. The suit asks the Federal Court to terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks. Blanchard believes its clients suffered substantial losses as a result of Barrick`s and J.P. Morgan Chase`s unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices.

This lawsuit is for Injunctive Relief.

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt aber heute ganz gewaltig

Die Meldungen über diese Anklage gegen Barrick, und J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, dürfte ab Eröffnung der asiatischen Goldhandelplätze, dem Goldpreis Flügel verleihen, wenn nicht.... ja was den nun?

[ThaiGuru]

Bereits bei 345.25 Dollar pro Unze Gold!

Und wie ich seh, weit und breit kein Fisch im Zürichsee.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Dottore Lupo]

Thaigurke: also ich wechsle jetzt auf die Bullenseite...und kaufe billige OZ...aber du jagst die Lemminge trotzdem ins Meer.

cu DL

[Vetinari]

The Empire Strikes Back ...

Lawsuit Vs. Barrick, JP Morgan Viewed as Publicity Stunt
Wednesday December 18, 6:22 pm ET
By Lynne Olver

VANCOUVER -- News of an antitrust lawsuit being brought by U.S. retail gold dealer Blanchard & Co. against Barrick Gold Corp. and JP Morgan Chase & Co. is being dismissed by some equity analysts as a publicity gimmick
...
...
In a statement, Barrick called Blanchard`s allegations "ludicrous" and " totally without merit."

JP Morgan Chase hasn`t commented on the lawsuit.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021218/1822001066_1.html

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Die "high traffic"-Variante von http://www.kitco.com bis nach Mitternacht (MEZ) hab ich auch noch nie erlebt ...

Ist das wieder so ein "technischer Gebrechens-Gag" von kitco oder glotzen da die Amis tatsächlich konzertiert und konsterniert mit güldenem Blick dem POG nach?

Die Seite ist schon spannend: Immer wenn der POG ins Marschieren kommmt, wird die site äußerst "unrund" zum Aufrufen und Bedienen - wenn sie überhaupt geht! Und das trotz aller Behauptungen seitens kitco, dass die Server immer mehr Kapazitäten bieten. Seltsam, seltsam, ...,

[ThaiGuru]

@Lupo mit dem falschen Doktortitel

So, so, Du wechselst jetzt auf einmal auf die Bullenseite!

Nachdem Du monatelang im Board immer wieder behauptet hast GATA sei eine Idioten Bande. Nachdem Du sagtest Gold würde fallen, Du auch gestern noch sagtest die Gold Aktien sollte man verkaufen.

Die Verschwörungstheorie bezeichnest Du als eine Erfindung von Idioten, und als ich gestern schrieb, die Ratten verlassen das sinkende Gold Verleihe Schiff, musstest Du auch dagegen ziehen, und behaupten die Leser würden mich dafür hassen, und aus dem Board jagen.

Was bist Du eigentlich für ein Mensch, bist Du überhaupt einer? Wenn ja, solltest Du Dich dringend einmal untersuchen lassen. Vielleicht liegst ja daran, dass Du zu viel Rindfleisch verzehrst.

Auf jeden Fall bist Du ein ganz schlechter Verlierer.
Pass auf, dass nicht Du es selbst bist den die Leser hassen, für Deine massenweise Fehleinschätzungen zum Gold Geschehen in diesem Board.

Hast Du Dir schon einmal überlegt, was Du durch Deinen persönlichen Rachefeldzug, in der irrigen Annahme ich sei identisch mit einem Oestereichischen User; den Du anscheinend so zu hassen scheinst; quer durch meine Threads in den letzten 10 Monaten an Verunsicherung, und finanzielle Nachteile bei den potenziellen Gold Anlegern angerichtet hast, die sich durch Deine miesmacher Postings von Käufen haben abhalten lassen.

Verzieh Dich besser in ein Rattenloch.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Dottore Lupo]

Ach du Gartenzwerg...leck mich doch am Arsch!!!

cu DL..der gerade billige OZetten einsammelte

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Dottore Lupo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn nicht.....

Wusst ich`s doch, die Vasallen des Gold Cabal schlagen schon zurück!

Soll alles nicht wahr sein. Die Analysten sind schon zur stelle, die da behaupten, es ist alles ganz normal, die Klage habe keine Grundlage, und sei nur ein Werbe Gag.

Zig Jahresproduktionen an Gold hat Barrick auf dem Papier schon verkauft, glaube es sind ca. 8 Jahres Produktionen an Gold, die noch gar nicht einmal gefördert wurden.

Die Dementis kommen schon, und im Link Text von Reuters Beitrag, wird der Firma Blanchard and Co. bereits unterstellt es handle sich um einen "Publicity Stunt"

Würde mich nicht wundern, falls nächstens die Agenturen weltweit eine Propaganda Schlacht auslösen werden.
JP-Morgan hat viele, viele, Freunde bei der Presse

Dann wird die deutsche Presse womöglich gleich nur noch von einem "Publicity Stunt" sprechen, um die Meldung von der Klage gegen Barrick und JP-Morgan, als unglubwürdig erscheinen zu lassen. Die erte Blanchard Meldung wurde ja bisher wenigstens total "verschlafen"!

Falls das gelingen sollte, könnte ich mir auch vorstellen, dass die Goldpreisnotierungen wieder unter Druck kommen, und nachgeben.

Spannend wird es wohl heute auf alle Fälle werden, und ein Kampf um den Goldpreis ebenso. Sehr Volatil dürfte es langsam auch werden.

Zur Zeit steht der Goldpreis bei ca. 345.- Dollar, vor kurzer Zeit stand er schon bei 346.48 Dollar

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/021218/minerals_barrick_lawsuit_3.ht…

Reuters

UPDATE - Barrick dismisses anti-trust allegations

Wednesday December 18, 6:37 pm ET


(Adds Barrick comment, stock price. Figures in U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Blanchard and Co., a U.S. gold and coin dealer, said on Wednesday it had filed an anti-trust lawsuit against Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp. (Toronto:ABX.TO - News) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM - News) for manipulating the gold price, but Barrick dismissed the claims as "ludicrous".

New Orleans-based Blanchard said in a statement distributed by Business Wire that its anti-trust suit accused Barrick, the world`s second-largest gold producer, and U.S. financial services firm J.P Morgan Chase of making $2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the price at the expense of investors.

Privately held Blanchard said in the statement that it was seeking in legal papers filed to the U.S District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana to end the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase, and other bullion banks.

It is also seeking payment to Blanchard`s clients for losses caused by the alleged price manipulation.

Toronto-based Barrick said the allegations were "totally without merit" and said it would vigorously defend itself and pursue all of its legal rights.

"Although Barrick has not had an opportunity to review the complaint in detail, the press release contains numerous factual inaccuracies and defamatory statements," a Barrick spokesman said, reading from a prepared statement.

Shares in Barrick, which is expected to produce 5.7 million ounces of gold in 2002, were down as much as 89 Canadian cents after Blanchard`s statement, but rebounded to close down 20 Canadian cents at C$24.45 in Toronto.

Blanchard`s statement said the lawsuit alleges that in the past five years Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market, or several times more than the annual production of every gold mine in South Africa, the world`s biggest gold producer.

"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and J.P Morgan Chase began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 (an ounce) if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand," Blanchard`s chief executive, Donald Doyle, said in the statement.

"If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760."

Blanchard said its suit claimed that by using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing additional billions of dollars worth of physical gold with off balance sheet accounting, Barrick made it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading position.

The lawsuit further alleges that J.P Morgan Chase financed Barrick`s repeated short selling with advantageous terms not available to others, including deferred repayments and no margin calls, Blanchard said.

($1=$1.55 Canadian)

[ThaiGuru]

Was die GATA zum gestrigen massiven Goldpreianstieg auf 341.80 Dollar sagt.

***********************************************************
December 18- Gold $341.80 up $4.60 - Silver $4.66 up 3 cents

GATA’s "Enveloping Horn" ARMY Routing Gold Cartel

It has taken GATA four years, but the effort of the entire GATA army has paid off. We are routing The Gold Cartel, the most powerful and wealthiest people in the world. The battle plan put in place so long ago is winning the day. For new Café members, that constantly worked plan was based on the "Enveloping Horn" strategy of Zulu warrior Chieftain SHAKA, Africa’s greatest general. For those who wish to know more on this, hit SHAKA at the search function on the bottom of the bottom.

Gold has been on a tear ever since the Howe/Bolser report was published at http://www.GoldenSextant.com and brought to the attention of the investment world by MIDAS and GATA’s Chris Powell. MIDAS Headliners:

12/5 HOWE/BOLSER REPORT STUNS GOLD/INVESTMENT WORLD!!!!!
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=2659

12/6 O’Neill and Lindsey Resign After Reading Howe/Bolser Gold Report http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=2660

Then, Frank Veneroso’s gold report surfaced and was circulated all over. Frank’s report on the massive gold short position of the bullion/central banks confirmed the Reg Howe’s analysis. What is amazing is they came up with the same result using completely different methodologies. The big money is reading these reports. You don`t need to be an Einstein to realize once this "cat is out of the bag" and understood in the mainstream investment world, a massive gold short squeeze will be the inevitable result. The smart money has been handed two brilliant analyses to give them the CONVICTION to take on The Gold Cartel.

That is JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING. You can tell that by watching the Comex market action. These clever, smart money buyers are toying with the cabal shorts. They know they have them by the cojones, waiting to pounce on the cabal on the close almost on a daily basis.

Look at what gold has done since the Howe/Bolser report was released:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/23

Coincidence? I don’t think so!

Today was a sight to behold. Right from the get-go, you could tell gold was going to roar. The cabal tried to take down gold all night and morning, but it was obvious they were not going to succeed. Yesterday’s dramatic sell-off then became a positive as today’s early action showed the shorts to be in big trouble. Sure enough, once again the smart money buying crowd stuck it to The Gold Cartel on the close.

The cabal has now lost their last line of defense, that being $340 resistance. For the last two days, they gave it all they had to try and take gold down. THEY WERE WHIPPED! It is important to note that we still do not have any gaps to fill on the downside. We still do not have that upside break-away gap, followed by a buying panic in the US. That could come any day now. Word was sent my way today that option books are blowing up because of the sharp move up in the gold price. There is no telling what the gold price could do on the upside. That $10, $20, $30 up day could be at hand! Collectively, the shorts are on the hook for some 15,000 tonnes of gold. Mine supply is only 2500 tonnes per year and shrinking. How are they going to pay the loans back? Where are they going to get the gold? Only one way: gold must rise hundreds of dollars per ounce. Then, the women and peasants of the world will bring their scrap gold in jewelry form to market. What fun! The dummkopf, arrogant western bullion bankers need to be bailed out by the peasants of the world. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Gold supply news:

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) also lowered its estimate of 2001/02 national gold yield by seven tonnes to 264 tonnes from 271 tonnes. Gold production in Australia, the world`s number three gold mining country behind South Africa and the United States, peaked at 318 tonnes in 1997/98. Analysts have blamed the steady decline since on less exploration work, which slowed the pace of new mine development. –END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[siam123]

siam123

PS.:ThaiGuru , schade das Du auf meine BM nicht reagiert hast

[siam123]

siam123

PS.:ThaiGuru , schade das Du auf meine BM nicht reagiert hast

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Dec 18 2002

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.01, PM $1.64, with world gold at $337.30 and $336.75. At and below legal import point. There are anecdotes of Indian buying from offshore early in the day, and one Indian published report speaking of "panic purchases by dealers" locally (see http://in.biz.yahoo.com/021217/17/1z7jz.html ).

This tends to lend support to the idea that the extension of credit from the West to Indian shippers since gold importing became legal has accentuated the effective short position in gold. The prices used in the above calculations are those offered to the retail public, however, and therefore the premiums reflect the public’s appetite. This seems surprisingly robust: bad news for bears.

So in its way, was TOCOM this morning. Faced with an abrupt reversal of the favourable trend in world gold – opening over $3 down from their close on Tuesday – and with no encouragement from the yen, the Japanese public stood quite firm. Volume dropped 36% to the equivalent of 34,510 Comex contracts, but open interest slipped only 370 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded a large 65,221 contracts: open interest rose again by 1,391 contracts.) $US gold was edged up 40c. Something may well be happening here; it merits careful attention.

In brief, the past two days have seen powerful efforts to turn back gold’s advance, apparently from the usual quarters. The $336 zone held resolutely amidst numerous stories of Middle and Far Eastern buying: and, as NY’s close today shows, there exists an impulse to drive gold higher.

There is a good deal of discussion about how thin the market is getting, and the inevitability of book squaring and a slow down before Christmas. In fact, some of gold’s most decisive phases have occurred in the Christmas season – 1979-80 being just the most spectacular. Bears might be wiser to consider the possibility of a year end charge by profit-hungry hedge funds; a market component that did not really exist 23 years ago.

Mitsui as a whole – has fallen almost silent.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Price of GOLD = Jetzt bereits bei 349.65 Dollar

[ThaiGuru]

@siam123

Fals ich von Dir eine Boardmail erhalten hätte, würde ich Dir ganz sicher geantwortet haben.

Habe von Dir in der letzten Zeit aber keine Mail erhalten.

Bitte schicke sie mir nochmals

Danke

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

!!!!!!!GOLD steht jetzt bei 354.20 Dollar pro Unze!!!!!!

Und die Europäer konnten noch gar kein Gold kaufen

An die Amerikaner mag ich gar noch nicht denken, da die erst heute abenz zum Gold Kaufen kommen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[mickym [VIP]]

Mir raubt das auch den Schlaf!

Goldige Grüsse Mic

[siam123]

@ThaiGuru ,

OK ,

siam123

[ThaiGuru]

@mickym

Schlaf was ist das?

Goldene Grüsse

ThaiGuru

[Gringo1]

Morgen Goldbugs,

hübscher Chart bei Kitco !

Die haben sicherheitshalber schon die Scala auf 5 $ Schritte umgestellt.

Verbrannte Shorties kann man auch schon riechen

Schließen wir heute über 350 ?

[ThaiGuru]

Unsere freie, und aktuelle Presse zum Goldpreisgeschehen und der Klage gegen
JP-Morgan und Barrick.

Eigentlich unglaublich das Ganze

Nichts aber auch gar nichts bis jetzt!




Funkstille



Wird einfach Ignoriert



Gold Existiert wohl nicht



Wissen Dir wirklich nichts von der Klage gegen JPM / Barricl



Wie hoch muss Gold denn noch steigen bis da mal was kommt



Unglaublich das Ganze, mit keinem Wort erwähnt der Goldpreisanstieg und die Klage



Die Ringier Verlagszeitung fühlt sich anscheinend nicht mehr zuständig für Skandale.

Blick widmet sich voll LUkas Mühlemann

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thaiguru,

böse Stimmen munkeln ja, das Politik,Großindustrie,Banken
und Medien gemeinsam den Aktienmarkt seit Jahren anheizen,
um der breiten Masse das Geld zu entziehen.


Da kommt natürlich die jetzige Goldbewegung absolut unge-
legen, daher die momentane "gequälte Todschweigetaktik",
welche sich mit Sicherheit - in Form von anderen Ausreden-
noch massiv verstärken wird.

[ThaiGuru]

@sterngleiter
@alle Gold Bugs, oder die es gerade werden wollen.

Bin mir da sogar ganz sicher.

Mit ungelegen kommen, untertreibst Du jedoch gewaltig.
Es sind nicht nur die Gold Bugs die sich die Nacht um die Ohren schlagen.

Wir machen es entweder aus Freude am Preisausbruch, auf den wir so lange gewartet haben, oder vielleicht auch nur aus Interesse an diesem für nicht Gold Bugs so unglaublichen Anstieg.

Die andere Seite, JPM, Barrick, FED direktoren müssen sich sehr wahrscheinlich heute auch die Nacht um die Ohren schlagen. Aber nicht etwa aus Freude, sondern aus einer existenziellen Notlage, und weil einige Angst um ihren Arbeitsplatz haben dürften.

Uebrigens bei Lihir Gold dürften sie heute Nacht eventuell auch durchgemacht haben. Bei der GATA raten sie dringend zum verkauf von Lihir. Soll beim Gold Hedgebuch von Lihir angeblich schon gestern eine Schräglage von über 50 Millionen bestanden haben.

Und die Banken zittern wohl auch etwas um ihre Gold Pfründe.

Zurecht wie ich meine. Wenn alle Leser im Thread die noch Gold und Silber nur auf dem Papier besitzen, sollten sie es sich so schnell wie möglich, aus Sicherheitsgründen von ihren Banken, am besten heute noch, physisch ausliefern lassen, wird es unangenehm für die Banken. Und wenn es zuviele Anleger physisch ausgeliefert haben wollen, gibt es vermutlich Engpässe, oder sogar noch gravierender, einige Banken können es vielleicht nicht in genügenden Mengen liefern.

Probiert es doch mal aus. Ihr werdet die Banker um ihre Ausredekunst beneiden, wenn sie Anfangen Euch die Auslieferung auszureden, und die horrenden Gebühren für die Auslieferung bekanntgeben. Musste selbst schon um kleinere Gebühren kämpfen. In der Schweiz möchte die UBS von Ihren Kunden z.Bsp. für die Auslieferung eines 1. Kilo Silberbarren sage und schreibe CHF 50.- pro Kilo Auslieferungsgebühr zum Kaufspreis dazu, plus MWST, zumindest war das im Juni 02 noch der Fall. Auch wenn noch Steuern fällig werden, es lohnt sich trotzdem, da mann sicher sein kann, das Gold auch wirklich physisch zu besitzen, und sich keine Gedanken mehr darüber zu müssen, ob man das Gold auch wirklich physisch besitzt, oder eben nicht. Banken allgemein betrachtet, können in eine Schräglage kommen, oder sogar im schlimmsten Falle auch Konkurs gehen. Gold, und Silber im gemieteten Banktresor gehört dann aber nicht zur Konkursmasse einer Bank

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[derunsichtbarefreund]

du hast aber einen großen denkfehler , thaiguru.

wenn die bank schlapp machst dann ist sie erst mal zu, und du drückst dann deine nase am schaufenster der bank platt weil du nicht reinkommst. wie lang dieser zustand dauern und welche " neue " bankverordnungen dann kommen hast du nicht mehr in der hand

dann lieber im heimischen garten verbuddelt. bei dem dünger wächst alles auch die phantasie.

DUF

[ThaiGuru]

Falls Brasilien es nicht schafft, kommen noch mehr Gründe für einen weiteren Goldpreisanstieg hinzu.

300 Milliarden US Dollar Schulden hat Brasilien vorzuweisen. Argentinien schaffte die Zahlungsunfähigkeit bereits bei einem Stand von 140 Milliarden US Dollar

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News

12/18 21:57

Brazil`s Lula, $300 Billion in Debt, Can Pay Bills or Help Poor

By Edward Robinson

Rio de Janeiro, Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- On a hot day in November, Josinaldo Francisco da Cruz is rushing through the alleys of Rio das Pedras, one of Rio de Janeiro`s largest favelas, or slums. Nadinho, as da Cruz is known, is president of the residents` association, and his services are in constant demand.

He helps people obtain telephone and electricity service, open bank accounts and enroll their children in school. Rio das Pedras has long been ignored by the Brazilian government. Now, Nadinho says, all that should change.

That`s because Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a onetime shoeshine boy and founder of Brazil`s Workers` Party, received 52 million votes for president on Oct. 27 in the biggest landslide in the nation`s history.

Nadinho and millions of other poor Brazilians say they`re counting on the new president, who will take office on Jan. 1, to ease their hardship by building hospitals, schools and roads.

``We trust Lula,`` says Nadinho. ``We now have a president who has confronted and beaten the same problems we face every day. He`s just like us.``

While he tries to meet such expectations, Lula must also overcome an obstacle he hasn`t met before: managing Brazil`s massive debt load.

According to data from the Brazilian central bank, the government has 1.16 trillion reais ($300 billion) in debt -- more than any other developing nation.

Brazil`s total debt amounts to 80 percent of its gross domestic product, compared with 42 percent in Mexico and 50 percent in Russia, according to CreditSights Inc., a New York- based research firm.

Debt Coming Due

Argentina had about $140 billion in debt, 52 percent of its GDP, when its government defaulted in December 2001.

Brazil`s government owes almost three-quarters of its debt to domestic banks and other financial institutions, and 41 percent of the total will come due in 2003, according to central bank records.

Twenty of Brazil`s 50 largest banks by assets are foreign- owned.

Almost a third of the domestic debt was indexed to the U.S. dollar as of September, so the burden increased as the real lost value. Servicing this debt load on that timetable with so much exposure to the exchange rate is not sustainable, says Jonathan Binder, chief investment officer at Miami-based Standard Asset Management Inc.

``A credit event is inevitable,`` says Binder, who manages $600 million in emerging-market bonds. ``The debt is rising faster than GDP every month, and I just don`t see a long-term path out of this predicament.`` He sold $60 million in Brazilian bonds, his entire position in two Latin America funds, last summer.

`A Tough Fix`

Morris Goldstein, an economist at the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for International Economics, says there`s a 70 percent chance Brazil will have to restructure its domestic debt. ``Lula`s in a tough fix,`` says Goldstein, former deputy director of research at the International Monetary Fund. ``The odds are very long he can hold this together without a default.``

That`s true in part because Lula must contend with the heightened expectations of political supporters. During the election campaign, he vowed to create 10 million jobs and end chronic hunger in Brazil.

The nation`s labor unions, which backed him in three prior runs for the presidency, say they expect him to spend more of the federal budget on wage increases. Henrique Martini, a director of the 900,000-member union that staffs the federal social security administration, says he plans to press Lula for a 25 percent wage increase in 2003.

`We`ll Fight Hard`

``Lula is a worker who knows where we are coming from, so he`s got to help,`` says Martini. ``If not, we`ll fight hard.`` Brazil`s federal workers have not had a raise in six years.

Since his election, Lula, 57, has signaled he`s not beholden to his past allies or to past positions on issues. For years, he called for steep increases in Brazil`s minimum wage, which sets compensation rates for 21 million workers and retirees. During the 2002 campaign, he pressed for a 20 percent increase.

On Nov. 27, Joao Paulo Cunha, a Lula ally and the Workers` Party leader in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Congress, announced that the party would support a 10 percent increase to 220 reais per month.

Lula has said he wouldn`t voluntarily default on debt to foreign investors so he could redirect funds to new spending programs. ``A Workers` Party government would honor all of its international commitments,`` Lula said on the campaign trail in October.

He`s also pledged that the government would produce a 3.75 percent budget surplus -- excluding debt payments -- to comply with the terms of a $30 billion emergency loan the IMF approved in September.

Market-Friendly Government

``Lula and his team clearly understand the benefits of a market-friendly government,`` says Paul Rogers, managing director at Deutsche Asset Management and portfolio manager of the Brazil Fund, a $209 million fund devoted entirely to Brazilian equities.

On Dec. 12, Lula named Henrique Meirelles, the former president of global banking at FleetBoston Financial Corp., as the next president of the central bank.

Meirelles, a member of the opposition Brazilian Social Democratic Party, or PSDB, said in an interview before his appointment that he would like to see the real trading at just under 3 to the U.S. dollar to bolster exports. As of Dec. 18, it was trading at 3.52. ``The critical problem is restoring capital flow into Brazil,`` said Meirelles.

Lula must find a way to balance his conflicting agendas if he is to stabilize Brazil`s economy, says Mark Mobius, managing director of Templeton Asset Management Ltd. and manager of the firm`s group of emerging-market funds.

`Far Deeper Disease`

``He can`t break promises with investors, but the lack of confidence in the economy is a symptom of a far deeper disease: poverty, corruption, the lack of reform,`` says Mobius.

Mobius`s $229 million Templeton Emerging Markets Fund favors South Africa`s SABMiller Plc, a brewer, and Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SA, a maker of Kleenex tissues and other consumer goods, over Brazilian stocks.

Should Lula fail, the country could suffer its worst breakdown since the early 1990s, when prices soared 50 percent a month during hyperinflation and the government of President Fernando Collor de Mello froze citizens` savings accounts to stabilize the financial system.

``In the worst-case scenario, the country would be brought to its knees by protests and people buying dollars to protect themselves,`` says Arturo Porzecanski, head of the Emerging Markets Economics and Debt Strategy team at ABN-Amro Inc. in New York.

River of Stones

If Lula does stumble, few would suffer as much as the people of Rio das Pedras, which means River of Stones, where life is a daily struggle. Built on a marsh, the favela is located across a lagoon from Barra da Tijuca, an affluent beachfront resort where many of the shantytown`s 75,000 residents work as handymen, drivers, cooks, nannies and maids.

The reek of sewage wafts from a ditch filled with black water that cuts through a maze of dwellings. With no proper drainage, mud puddles two feet deep obstruct the town`s unpaved alleys.

Residents` association leader Nadinho says the community resorts to vigilantism, including violence, to stop drug dealers from seizing control of the favela because the police rarely make an appearance.

The settlement has no hospital. Maria Dolores Olivera Ramos, who`s lived 47 of her 67 years here, says she must make the half- hour ride to the nearest facility at 6 a.m. to see a doctor by the end of the day; with no pension, the onetime maid depends on handouts to buy medicine.

`Government`s Cruelty`

``This shows you the government`s cruelty,`` Nadinho says. ``I`m sick and tired of this situation. We need radical change.``

Ever since he began his political career 23 years ago, Lula has vowed to fight for such change.

``We must seek a model of society in which there is a fairer distribution of wealth,`` Lula said in a December 1994 interview published in a book entitled ``Brazil: Carnival of the Oppressed`` (Latin American Bureau Ltd., 1995). ``You don`t even need to call it a socialist project. Call it a Christian project or an ethical project. Call it the defense of human rights.``

Lula`s rise to power has become legend in Brazil and has been detailed in dozens of biographies and newspaper profiles. He was born the seventh of eight children in 1945, in Pernambuco, a rural state in northeastern Brazil.

His father, a coffee porter, abandoned the family soon after Lula was born, migrating to Sao Paulo, Brazil`s industrial capital. When Lula was seven years old, his mother Euridice piled her children onto the back of a truck to make the 2,000-mile journey to Sao Paulo as well.

Peddling Tapioca

Lula worked in the streets there after school, shining shoes and peddling tapioca. At 12, he quit school and took a full-time job at a dry cleaner.

By his 18th birthday, Lula had become a lathe operator at a plant in Sao Bernardo do Campo, an industrial city outside Sao Paulo. That year, a machine cut off the little finger of his left hand in an accident.

Lula became president of the Metalworkers Union of Sao Bernardo do Campo in 1975, and, calling for higher wages, he led a series of strikes against manufacturers like Volkswagen SA.

Tens of thousands of workers filled Sao Bernardo`s soccer stadium to listen to his speeches, and the strikes became protests against the antilabor policies of the military governments that ruled Brazil at that time.

``He looked people in the eye and challenged them: `Change the country or else you will remain on your knees,``` says Expedito Soares, a union director who in 1980 served 30 days in jail with Lula for inciting strikes and is now a union lawyer.

The Workers` Party

In 1980, Lula and other labor leaders founded the Workers` Party and began running candidates for Congress and municipal offices.

By 1989, Lula had built enough national support to run for the presidency against independent Collor de Mello, taking 43 percent of the vote. ``Only then did we realize that we might go all the way,`` says Soares.

Lula ran and lost twice more before defeating Jose Serra, the health minister in outgoing President Fernando Henrique Cardoso`s cabinet.

Now Lula must face the country`s towering economic woes: Brazil`s per-capita GDP has slid to $2,597 from $4,755 in 1998, and unemployment is at 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the country`s child mortality rate is the seventh- highest in the Western Hemisphere, with 49 boys and 42 girls per 1,000 dying before the age of five, according to the World Health Organization.

Undernourished

About 10 percent of Brazil`s 170 million people are undernourished, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

For most of last year, investors feared a Workers` Party administration would embrace debt default and reject fiscal discipline and further privatizations of state-owned industry.

A 23-year-old confederation of trade unionists, Marxist academics and land reform militants, the party continues to harbor firebrands like Senator Heloisa Helena, who said at the 2001 party congress that IMF officials should be tried for crimes against humanity.

Jose Dirceu, soon to be Lula`s chief of staff, trained as a guerrilla in Cuba and then underwent plastic surgery to return secretly to Brazil from self-exile in 1971. Even though Dirceu has become the leader of the party`s moderate wing and its top advocate for adhering to debt and budgetary requirements, some investors aren`t convinced his radical days are behind him.

`Che Guevara Redux`

``This could be Che Guevara redux,`` says Charles Cassel, a portfolio manager and colleague of Binder`s at Standard Asset Management.

Skepticism about Lula was evident from investors` reaction prior to the election. Brazil`s benchmark 8 percent bond -- maturing in 2014 and denominated in U.S. dollars -- plunged to a low of 48.13 cents on the dollar on Oct. 15 from a high of 82.97 on March 18, according to Bloomberg data.

The Bovespa index of 56 Brazilian companies listed on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange plummeted more than 40 percent during the same period.

Foreign investors withdrew more than $2.4 billion in portfolio capital from Brazil between January and September 2002 compared with an inflow of $4.2 billion in the same period in 2001, according to the central bank.

Since then, investors have had a second look. The benchmark bond has rallied since the election on Oct. 27. It had risen 8.5 cents on the dollar to 65.06 as of yesterday to yield 18.29 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Stock-Market Surge

The Bovespa has surged as well, climbing almost 15 percent since the election. ``The market overreacted to the risk of a Lula administration,`` says Mohamed El-Erian, manager of Pacific Investment Management Co.`s $7 billion emerging-market fixed- income portfolio, which includes about $1 billion in dollar- denominated Brazilian debt. ``The idea that he would purposefully lead Brazil into a meltdown doesn`t make sense because there is no windfall in stopping the debt payments. It would destroy Brazil`s banking system.``

In the third quarter, El-Erian purchased 10,258 Brazilian benchmark bonds. Their value increased 33 percent between Sept. 30 and Dec. 18, according to Bloomberg data.

Standard Asset Management`s Binder was so encouraged by Lula`s pledges of fiscal responsibility that in November, he rededicated 20 percent of his two Latin American fixed-income funds to 30-day credit-linked notes pegged to sovereign debt. The notes are financial instruments that pay a higher yield in exchange for reducing or forfeiting the principal if Brazil defaults.

`Riding the Honeymoon`

``We`re riding the honeymoon,`` says Binder.

That honeymoon may not last long, says Templeton`s Mobius. Brazil`s stalled economy is hindering the government`s ability to service its debt, he says.

According to Emy Shayo, an economist at Bear Stearns Co., the country eked out a 0.5 percent increase in GDP in 2002 after posting 1.5 percent growth in 2001. Shayo forecasts GDP will rise 1.2 percent in 2003.

Says Mobius: ``The debt cannot be paid under the current timetable unless the government finds a way to instill confidence in the economy.``

That won`t be easy because most of Brazil`s economic indicators are moving in the wrong direction: The real`s 70 percent plunge in value from Jan. 2 to Oct. 10, 2002, spurred inflation.

Street Protests

In November, consumer prices rose 3.02 percent -- a 36.2 percent annualized rate and the highest level in eight years. Prices of staples like sugar have soared as much as 89 percent in some parts of the country, prompting street protests.

To curb inflation, the Central Bank on Nov. 20 raised the benchmark overnight lending rate, known as the Selic, to 22 percent, the highest since June 1999. That increase threatens to crimp economic growth.

``Clearly, Brazil is trapped in a vicious circle,`` says ABN- Amro`s Porzecanski. ``And just as clearly, it must break out of this cycle.``

To accomplish that, Lula must pass laws that curb the government`s wasteful financial practices, says incoming central bank president Meirelles.

That would spur investors to put more capital in Brazil, lift the real and ease inflation. The conditions would then be right for lowering interest rates, which would in turn stimulate the economy, he says.

Public Pension System

Pimco`s El-Erian says Lula must overhaul Brazil`s social security and public pension systems, which consume 41 percent of the government`s total annual spending.

Brazil long paid for the pensions of government workers by tapping general tax revenue annually instead of using a pay-as-you- go plan, says a 2002 World Bank study.

Until 1999, Brazil had no minimum retirement age, so workers in their 40s often quit one job to collect a pension even as they worked new jobs. Retirees also collect raises when the minimum wage rises.

``Brazil cannot afford its social security system,`` the World Bank report says. (Das können die Deutschen aber auch nicht!TG)

The spending deficit in 2001 for both that system and the social security plan for nongovernment workers was $15.6 billion, and expenditures and debt for the state worker system totaled 10 percent of GDP, says the IMF.

The social security system is rigged so the poorest 10 percent of Brazilians received less than 1 percent of social security spending, while about half was collected by the country`s wealthiest 10 percent, according to the World Bank.

`Brazilian Crisis`

``This is the heart of the Brazilian crisis,`` says Mailson da Nobrega, a former finance minister. ``With such a deficit, the government cannot reduce the tax burden and make the economy grow.``

Lula hasn`t unveiled his own plan for fixing the pension system. Outgoing President Cardoso, a PSDB member, had proposed eliminating automatic raises for retirees and increasing contributions from state workers.

Some of his bills were defeated in Congress, with the Workers` Party leading the opposition. Those that passed were overturned by the courts.

Now Lula must pick up where Cardoso left off, says Meirelles. The Workers` Party holds 91 seats in the 513-member Chamber of Deputies and 14 seats in the 81-member Senate. Lula will need the support of the leading opposition parties, the PSDB and Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement, to win passage of his bills.

`Politics are Key`

``The politics are key for us,`` says Standard Asset Management`s Binder. ``Can Brazil make the necessary reforms that will allow for long-term viability?``

Back in Rio das Pedras, Nadinho and his fellow residents have found ways to live with little or no government help. The favela`s main thoroughfare, New Street, is jammed with private minivans, which people use instead of unreliable city buses.

The residents` association runs a private postal system so bills and other correspondence can get delivered in a timely fashion. Nadinho has even set up a community TV cable channel to report local news and announce upcoming soccer matches in the local leagues.

Still, for all of their industry, the people of Rio das Pedras can neither build and staff a hospital nor influence the economy so their children earn enough money to escape the favela and build a life in Brazil`s middle class.

``We have such a lack of options,`` says Nadinho.

Private Postmen

Edson Lima, 18, a lifelong resident of Rio das Pedras, is struggling to surmount those limitations. He recently quit his job as a ball boy on the tennis courts of Barra, a nearby resort development, after Nadinho hired him as one of the favela`s private postmen. He aspires to be a professional photographer.

Like everyone else in the favela, Lima celebrated Lula`s election, though he`s skeptical that the new president can change the fortunes of Rio das Pedras.

``To wait on something from a politician is difficult,`` says Lima. ``They only promise things -- even Lula. And he`s never held office before, so it`s too early to judge.``

Many investors, eager to see whether Lula can steer Brazil away from financial calamity, feel the same way.

[niemandweiss]

[ThaiGuru]

@derunsichtbarefreund

Du sagst es ganz richtig, im Falle einer Schliessung einer Bank, wegen was auch immer, kann der Kunde nicht an seinen Safe. Was die Schweiz betrifft gab es auch schon solche Fälle.

Doch glaub mir, alle Kunden dieser in Konkurs gegangenen CH Banken, z.Bsp. auch eine Bank im Kanton Solothurn. Konnten sehr wohl an ihre Schliessfächer, eben weil der Konkursverwalter die Inhalte von Bank Safes von Rechts wegen, nicht in die Konkursmasse aufnehmen durfte. Wie lange man darauf warten musste an die Safes vorgelassen zu werden ist mir im Detail nicht bekannt, doch sehr lange, hatte es sicher nicht gedauert.

Nehme jetzt mal einfach an, dass die Konkursgesetze in Deutschland ebeso keine Safe Inhalte von Privatkunden in die Konkursmasse aufnehmen. Selbst die Argentinier konnen wieder an ihre Safes, obschon sie leider zum Teil bis zu einigen Monaten darauf warten mussten, wie ich Pressemeldungen entnehmen konnte.

Bei Kunden die Edelmetalle auf dem Konto deponiert hatten, fliesst alles in die Konkursmasse. Geldbeträge auf Kontos übrigens genauso, abgesehen von allfälligen garantierten Einlagen.

Aber Du hast sicher recht damit, dass wer auf Nummer sicher gehen will, und nicht warten will, kann sein Gold auch nach Hause nehmen. Doch hier machst Du wohl einen Ueberlegungsfehler, nicht im Garten sollte man es verbuddeln, sondern in einem voll versicherten Feuer- sicheren privat Safe.

Und bitte schreibe mir jetzt nicht, dass eventl. die Versicherungsfirma auch Pleite gehen könnte, das wäre dann doch des Guten zuviel. (Kann aber passieren)

Ein Restrisiko bleibt im Leben immer bestehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Basic]

oder wie die Amis sagen:
What goes arround come s in.

Krieg, Energiekriese, Koruption, Inflation und all diese schönen Dinger.

Schei?e

[goldenbear2]

Gold + Gold Stocks

Gold bugs don`t really believe this is a building big bull market in gold

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
19 December, 2002

Extracted from the 18 December, 2002 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

Gold -- The Commercials (gold banks, mines who are hedged) had a large SHORT position of 100,000 gold futures on Dec. 3. By Dec. 10 they had increased their gold short position hugely, adding another 25,000 contracts to the short side. These shorts constitute added supply to the market. It`s clear that the powerful Commercials do NOT want higher gold.

In the great majority of cases, the Commercials will win the battle. But today the Commercials are fighting the primary trend of a bull market in gold. I`m not saying that the Commercials won`t be successful in knocking gold down, but in rather rare instances the Commercials find they are on the wrong side of a powerful primary trend and they are losing the battle. If that happens, if they "give up" and decide that they can`t beat the trend, then you can get a shorting panic as the Commercials panic.

Could that happen in the present gold situation? Sure it could. At some point, instead of flooding the gold market with more shorts the Commercials could "throw in the sponge" and conclude that they can`t beat the trend. Will that happen? Again, I will only say that "it could."

Gold Shares --Thirty years ago a multi-millionaire and a very successful investor told me something I`ll never forget. He said, "Russell, do you know why brokers never make real money in a bull market?"

I confessed that I didn`t know.

He said, "Brokers never make real money in a bull market because they never believe their own bull shit."`

I think it`s the same thing with the gold mine shares today. Gold is rising, rising, but many "gold-bugs," probably most gold-bugs, don`t believe their own BS. They don`t really believe this is a building big bull market in gold. They simply don`t believe it, and the gold stocks are acting that way.

With new highs in the metal, the stocks are rather reluctant to rally. But this will change in time. Believe me, it will change. Sentiment on the part of the gold bugs -- "Gold stocks have been down so long I forget what `up` looks like." (Comment from 321Gold: This may be the most brilliant statement from RR I have ever read. Gold bugs should be dancing in the street. Most of them are looking over their shoulders as if they are afraid of their own shadows. This is a gold bull market. Believe it. Hang on for the ride, gold shares are fixing to take you for a ride. -RJM)

Question -- Where does gold have to go before the gold shares "believe it?"

Answer -- I don`t know -- gold at 350, 370, 390, over 400? I don`t know, but sooner or later they will believe it. Although it seems like it will be "later.`

[Gringo1]

Der LTCM hatte zum Zeitpunkt seiner Pleite ein Leverage von 50, JP Morgan steht bei ... 500 ... !!!


Special Weeks Derivate: LTCM-Zusammenbruch bedrohte 1998 das Finanzsystem - Hintergründe 17.12.2002 Der Zusammenbruch des Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) Hedge Funds im Jahre 1998 hat bei den mit LTCM verflochtenen Banken für hohe Verluste gesorgt. Dieser bisher einmalige Fall in der Finanzgeschichte wurde durch eine Rettungsaktion der US-Notenbank aufgefangen, eine Liquidierung des Fonds hätte das Weltfinanzsystem bedrohen können.


Hauptursachen der LTCM-Pleite waren mangelnde Transparenz und unvorsichtige, übertrieben optimistische Annahmen hinsichtlich eines Worst-Case-Szenarios seitens des LTCM-Managements. Dass LTCM als Limited Partnership nicht der SEC unterstand, hat wohl zusätzlich zu hochriskanten Vorgehensweisen geführt.


LTCM war mit dem vorhandenen Kapital zu hohe Risiken eingegangen, ausserdem entwickelte sich der Markt entgegen den Annahmen des LTCM-Managements. Nachdem 1997 die Profitabilität der Arbitrage-Geschäfte aufgrund stark rückläufiger Spreads bei Anleihenrenditen abnahm und LTCM statt 40% Performance wie im Vorjahr „nur“ noch ein Plus von 17% aufweisen konnte, wählte das Management ein höheres Leverage, um die Performance und die geringen Margen bei dem Ausnutzen von kleinen Preisdifferenzen zu kompensieren.


Hinzu kam, dass viele Investoren aufgrund der relativ schwachen Performance (der Aktienmarkt hatte mehr als 30% zulegt, fast doppelt soviel wie der bis dahin die Aktienmärkte outperformende LTCM-Fonds) ihre Mittel abzogen und LTCM in 1997 rund 2,7 Milliarden US-Dollar an seine Investoren ausbezahlte. Da die gesamten Aktiva aber nicht zurückgefahren wurden, nahm das Leverage immer weiter zu, im August 1998 wurde ein Wert von über 50 erreicht – zu diesem Zeitpunkt hatte LTCM auf Basis der Vergleichswerte zum Jahresende 1997 mehr als die Hälfte an Wert verloren. Im September verschlimmerte sich die Lage, umfassende Margin Calls wurden an LTCM abgesetzt.


Am 23. September folgte dann die Rettungsaktion durch die US-Notenbank. Da LTCM bei vielen wichtigen Banken große Positionen hielt, hätte eine Liquidation fatale Folgen für das Finanzsystem haben können. Dies hätte laut Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan auch auf Unternehmen, die nicht direkt mit LTCM verbunden waren, sowie auf ganze Volkswirtschaften negative Auswirkungen gehabt. Im Rahmen der Rettungsaktion haben Banken für 90% an LTCM rund 3,6 Milliarden US-Dollar eingebracht.


Wie konnte es zu diesem Zusammenbruch kommen? Neben dem hohen Leverage ist als wichtigster Grund wohl die auf falschen, zu optimistischen Grundlagen basierenden Worst-Case-Berechnungen des LTCM-Managements zu nennen. Während man bei LTCM im schlimmsten Fall von einem Verlust von 2,3 Milliarden US-Dollar ausgegangen war, verlor man im Jahr 1998 in Wirklichkeit weit über 4 Milliarden US-Dollar. Auch die Möglichkeit von Finanzkrisen wurde bei den internen Stresstests unterbewertet, hinzu kam, dass man sich bei den Berechnungen stark auf historische Daten verlassen hatte. LTCM hatte sich überschätzt und verfügte für den dann eintretenden Krisenfall nicht über ausreichendes Eigenkapital.


Grundsätzlich erhöhen Derivate die Sicherheit für Wirtschaftsteilnehmer. Die Planungssicherheit lässt sich erhöhen, Verlustrisiken können gegen Zahlung einer Prämie begrenzt werden. Diese Prämie für den Einsatz von Derivaten kann man zwar abschreiben, wenn sich das Geschäft entsprechend den Erwartungen entwickelt und das derivative Hedge-Instrument wertlos verfällt. Die Möglichkeit des Einsatzes derartiger Instrumente führt jedoch dazu, dass Wirtschaftsteilnehmer auch bereit sind, höhere Risiken einzugehen, was positive Auswirkungen für die Gesamtwirtschaft hat.


Seit dem Jahr 1998 hat der Einsatz von Derivaten stark zugenommen, eine Großbank wie etwa JP Morgan, Weltmarktführer bei Derivategeschäften, weist ein Leverage von mehr als dem 500-fachen des Eigenkapitals auf. Der Gesamtwert von derivativen Geschäften lag zum Ende des ersten Halbjahres 2002 bei 128 Billionen US-Dollar, das entspricht etwa dem vierfachen des jährlichen Bruttoinlandsproduktes der gesamten Weltwirtschaft. Der Großteil dieser Derivate ist an die Zinsentwicklung gekoppelt.


Um Gefahren für das Finanzsystem zu vermeiden, müssen die Banken und Hedge-Fund-Manager verantwortungsvoll und im Hinblick auf Stresstests sehr konservativ vorgehen. Um dies zu gewährleisten, wäre unter anderem eine größtmögliche Transparenz wie eine verpflichtende, detaillierte Offenlegung der Positionen vonnöten. Dies gilt insbesondere in Zeiten, wo Betrugsfälle an der Börse das Vertrauen der Marktteilnehmer erschüttern. Auch eine effiziente Überwachung und Regulierung seitens staatlicher Stellen ist wünschenswert, wobei jedoch eine Überregulierung vermieden werden sollte.


Mitte November 2002 meinte Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan, dass bei einer Überregulierung für die Marktteilnehmer der Eindruck entstehen könne, dass die Notenbanken bei schiefgelaufenen Derivategeschäften grundsätzlich als Retter einspringen würden. „Wenn die Eigentümer und Manager von privaten Finanzinstitutionen erwarten würden, mit Hilfe des Staates regelmäßig wieder aufgerichtet zu werden, würde dies nur waghalsige und unverantwortliche Praktiken fördern“, so Greenspan in einer Rede gegenüber dem Council of Foreign Relations.


Die Notwendigkeit zum Leverage bei Derivaten lasse eine schwache Möglichkeit zu einer Kettenreaktion von Ausfällen zu, einer Sequenz von Störungen, die in einer finanziellen Implosion gipfeln könnte, wenn man Derivate nicht kontrolliere, warnte Greenspan.


Man müsse umsichtige regulatorische Standards schaffen, um größere Erschütterungen des Finanzmarktes zu vermeiden. Gleichzeitig müssten diese aber Standards so ausgelegt sein, dass eine Verunsicherung der Investoren vermieden werde und Marktteilnehmer weiterhin Derivate einsetzen, um angemessene Risiken eingehen zu können. Ein richtiger Schritt in diese Richtung ist der in den USA neu eingeführte Passus FASB 133, wonach die Anbieter von derivativen Instrumenten auch ihre off-balance-Positionen wie Swaps, Optionen und andere Derivate täglich zu Marktpreisen bewerten und in der Bilanz angeben müssen./jg

[goldenbear2]

From: "g-b"
To: [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail]
Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 10:46 AM
Subject: Wichtige Anfrage zu ausbleibender Berichterstattung


Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren in verantwortlicher Positon bei der Financial Times Deutschland,

mit Verblüffung, nein eigentlich mit Fassungslosigkeit, nehme ich leider zur Kenntnis, dass Sie es bisher nicht für nötig hielten, Ihre Leserschaft darüber zu informieren, dass in den USA am 18.12.02 Klage gegen die Großbank JP Morgan Chase and Co. sowie Barrick Gold Corp. eingereicht wurde. Der Vorwurf lautet auf milliardenschwere, jahrelange Manipulationen auf dem Goldmarkt mit erheblich preisdrückender Wirkung.

In allen relevanten us-amerikanischen Medien wurde diese Meldung in großer Breite aufgegriffen.
Wieso aber schweigen dann Sie sich so "vielsagend" darüber aus?
Meinen Sie etwa, deutsche Leser dürften das nicht erfahren?
In wessen Interesse handeln Sie so?
Wo bleibt Ihre journalistische Pflicht zur wahrheitsgemäßen, lückenlosen Berichterstattung?

Ich wäre sehr erfreut über eine aussagekräftige Antwort.

Ich weise Sie darauf hin, dass ich den Inhalt dieser Mail im Internet publik machen werde.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen

"g-b"

[ibidum]

Hallo Leute
Zum Posting von ThaiGuru #3436 "Physische Auslieferung von Gold" folgendes:
Habe am letzten Do. 12.12.02 10Stk. 100g Goldbarren bei CS bestellt, der Preis wurde zugesichert für 787CHF/Barren und der Auftrag wurde bestätigt. Nun heute eine Woche später kam ein Telefonat, dass die Barren abholbereit wären, doch leider nur zum Preis von 807CHF/Barren also 20CHF mehr pro Stk.!
Tja, ich möchte ja etwas von den Banken und der Gold/Kg Preisanstieg seit 12.12. ist ja nicht vernachlässigbar angestiegen, also schlägt die Bank einfach etwas höhere Spesen auf den Deal. Die Bank verliert (fast) nie....ausser ev. JPM (hoffentlich da haben wir es hinter uns).
Trotzdem Goldige Festzeit bis bald einmal
Ibidum
P.S. Habe sie (die Barren) trozdem gekauft, die liegen jetzt im HausTresor von mir und nicht der Bank he he...

[ThaiGuru]

Hier noch eine Meldung von Bloomberg, über die vorgeworfenen Machenschaften J.P.M.s im bereits laufenden Versicherungs Prozess gegen die selbe Firma der jetzt auch noch Goldpreis Manipulation vorgeworfen wird!

Die Alianz Versicherung ist bei diesem Prozess, wie man sieht, auch unter den Klägern, und Geschädigten.

Vielleicht sollte man die JPM doch besser mal etwas shorten?

Gruss ThaiGuru

***

Will Morgan e-mails about `disguised loans`
be admitted as evidence in insurance trial?

By David Voreacos

NEW YORK, Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Vice Chairman Donald Layton`s e-mails describing transactions as "disguised loans" are so "explosive," said a U.S. judge, that he might exclude them at a fraud trial involving 11 insurers.

U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff is weighing whether to let jurors review the e-mails in a case where J.P. Morgan sued insurers to force them to pay $1 billion on surety bonds backing gas and oil transactions involving Enron Corp. The insurers refused to pay after Enron`s collapse, saying the trades were masked loans to Enron through an offshore entity.

Rakoff said today he has made no decision about whether to
admit the e-mails. Layton told the judge at a hearing last night that the e-mails have nothing to do with the Enron trades at issue in the trial. Rather, Layton said the e-mails described his 1999 review of internal accounting when the bank advances cash in certain commodities or equities derivative transactions.

"What makes this a close call is that the use of the term `disguised loans` is an explosive one in the context of this case," Rakoff said during a two-hour hearing after jurors left last night.

In a second hearing today, Rakoff said he would rule by
Friday or Monday. "This is an important and close decision, and I haven`t made up my mind," the judge said.

The insurers, which include units of Allianz AG, Chubb Corp., CNA Financial Corp. and Kemper Insurance Cos., view the Layton e- mails as crucial evidence in a trial that began Dec. 2.

Layton testified at yesterday`s hearing, where the contents of several of the e-mails were revealed. He said that he began reviewing how the bank recorded certain transactions after learning about a complicated equities derivative transaction in Hong Kong that he thought was handled improperly.

"We are making disguised loans, usually buried in commodities or equities derivatives," Layton wrote in one e-mail. "They are understood to be disguised loans and approved as such. But I am queasy about the process." (Dieser Satz deutet zumindest schon mal an, dass etwas dran sein könnte an den neuen Anschuldigungen wegen Goldpreismanipulationen.TG)

In another e-mail, Layton said the phrase "disguised loans" was "a pejorative phrase even if generally accurate." He suggested that a more accurate phrase would be "derivatives-based fundings.``

At the hearing, Layton said none of the 1999 e-mails referred to transactions involving Enron, which sold oil and gas to a bank-sponsored entity, Mahonia Ltd. He said he used the phrase "disguised loans" as a colloquial expression to refer to cash disbursed upfront in certain derivatives transactions, including those involving commodities.

He said he got e-mails from a bank employee in late 1998
describing the Enron transactions, although he didn`t recall them when he wrote his e-mails six months later. He said he only learned of the Enron-Mahonia transactions around the time of the energy trader`s bankruptcy filing last December.

In the trial, the insurers claim that through a series of sales agreements, as well as commodity and interest rate swaps, Enron bought back the commodities it sold to Mahonia.

Under New York law, insurers can write surety bonds for commodities sales, although they are barred from backing loans. The insurers claimed that the bank defrauded them into writing six surety bonds between 1998 and 2000 by concealing crucial details about the circular nature of the trades. J.P. Morgan claims the surety companies failed to ask important questions.

At last night`s hearing, Rakoff said that while the Layton
e-mails may help the jurors understand the case, he was
concerned that they also may confuse the panel and
prejudice them against the bank.

In his opening statement for insurers, attorney Alan Levine alluded to the Layton e-mails when he said the bank used the words "disguised loans" in internal documents.

"Chase has a real problem with that phrase," Levine argued. "These deals were disguised loans, and the words actually have the bad, nasty connotation that they deserve. This isn`t our phrase, it`s their phrase. A better one for what they did here I couldn`t dream up myself."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MSV0GQDO…

Panic buying sends TOCOM gold to 5-1/2-yr high

Thu December 19, 2002 02:48 AM ET

TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures blasted to 5-1/2-year highs on Thursday as roiling war clouds over Iraq triggered a storm of stop-loss buying, but a firm yen threatened to take some of the wind out of the rally.

All yen-based gold contracts 0#JAU: except the new December 2003 benchmark finished limit-up at lifetime highs.

Turnover was a staggering 247,460 lots or 247.5 tonnes, more than double Wednesday`s tally of 107,336 lots, itself a chunky figure.

It was the highest daily turnover for Tokyo gold since mid-February, when fears of a financial crisis in Japan sent nervous investors running for the cover of safe-haven assets.

"It`s been a while since we`ve seen anything like this," one harried brokerage analyst said. "I`d forgotten the last time gold went limit-up."

Making its debut, the December contract JAUZ3 settled at 1,367 yen per gram, having surged as high as 1,375, a level not seen for benchmark gold since May 8, 1997.

Other months ended up by the daily price limit of 40 yen.

Individual investors on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange took their cue from spot bullion`s surge to an almost six-year high as jittery Australian investors piled money into a metal known as a sure bet in troubled times.

But dealers said Tokyo`s fireworks were mainly ignited by trading houses after an early burst of speculative buying on TOCOM, with panic buying setting in as spot gold`s rise above $347 an ounce released a volly of stop-loss orders.

"Iraq is just an excuse," a trader with a big Japanese trading house said. "I believe none of the traders would say they didn`t expect this. Everybody has been talking about military action in Iraq for three or four months."

News that the United States was likely to declare Iraq in violation of a U.N. disarmament resolution sent oil prices soaring and gave fund managers more reason to add gold to their portfolios.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was expected to say on Thursday that Iraq`s weapons dossier contains omissions, but officials insisted this would not be an immediate trigger for war.

COMEX gold futures 0#GC: scaled new peaks in after-hours electronic trade, clocking up hefty volumes as investors struggled to keep pace with the runaway spot market.

Most active February 2003 GCG3 was indicated at $351.10 an ounce at 0630 GMT, having surged as high as $355.70. That compared with a previous settlement price of $342.70.

Volume for the contract was a heavy 7,524 lots in inter-office trade alone.

Spot gold XAU= was fetching $351.50/353.00 an ounce at TOCOM`s closing bell, having rocketed as high as $353.75 before profit-taking set in. It was last quoted at $342.00/75 in New York.

JAPANESE LOOK TO YEN

Spurred by U.S. sabre-rattling against Iraq, a weak dollar and strong oil prices, gold has risen nearly 25 percent this year, making it one of the best-performing financial assets.

A weak greenback makes dollar-based bullion cheaper for non-U.S. buyers. But for Japanese investors it makes yen-based gold futures more expensive -- a consideration that traders and analysts said was capping the Tokyo market.

"Still people are worried about a stronger yen," the trader said. "If the United States starts attacking Iraq, the dollar would collapse. So in yen terms, the price surge is rather vulnerable."

The dollar bounced back from a Thursday morning low in Asia, but sentiment remained depressed by U.S.-Iraq tensions and the bankruptcy of major U.S. financial service firm Conseco Inc CNCE.OB .

It was fetching 121.16/21 yen JPY= at 0630 GMT, against 121.21/26 at the same time on Wednesday. Earlier, it had fallen as low as 120.69.

Gold dragged other precious metals futures higher in Tokyo.

Platinum contracts 0#JPL: gained between 31 and 50 yen in moderate trade, with the new December 2003 contract JPLZ3 ending at 2,234 yen per gram.

Sister metal palladium 0#JPA: rose 20 to 30 yen. December 2003 JPAZ3 settled at 945 yen per gram.

Silver 0#JSV: tacked on 2.4 to 4.0 yen. December 2003 JSVZ3 finished at 183.0 yen per 10 grams.

[Biotechperle]

Wirtschaftswoche

Titel: So wird 2003



Man braucht doch nur hinzusehen

Bio

[goldenbear2]

From: "g-b"
To: [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail] ; [e-mail]
Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 12:32 PM
Subject: Dringende Nachfrage wegen unbeantworteter Mail bzw. unterdrückter Medienmeldungen zu Goldmanipulationsklage


Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren in verantwortlicher Position bei der Financial Times Deutschland,


ich harre noch immer Ihrer Antwort auf meine Mail von heute früh.

Es ist schon arg auffällig, wie das Thema der Klage gegen JP Morgan Chase und Barrick wegen mutmaßlicher Goldmarktmanipulationen in der gesamten deutschen Presselandschaft totgeschwiegen wird.

Was ist bei IHNEN der Grund für dieses vielsagende Verschweigen?
Sonst schweigen Sie ja zu Wirtschaftsklagen in den USA auch nicht.
Aktuelles Beispiel von heute:

" US-Richter kippt Milliardenstrafe gegen Philip Morris
ftd.de, Do, 19.12.2002, 9:23
Ein US-Gericht hat ein Urteil gegen den Tabakkonzern Philip Morris revidiert. Es kürzte einen Entschädigung für einen Raucherin drastisch. Artikel "


Ist Ihnen das denn nicht selbst peinlich?
Sogar Ihr "Mutterblatt" - die originale Financial Times - hat es doch gemeldet:

http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=021219000673&que…

"Blanchard sues over gold deals
By Ken Warn
Financial Times; Dec 19, 2002

Blanchard and Co, the US`s biggest retail dealer in gold coins and bullion, is suing Barrick Gold of Canada and JP Morgan Chase of the US for alleged manipulation of the gold price.

New Orleans-based Blanchard said yesterday it had filed suit with some of its clients alleging that Barrick and JP Morgan had made "$2bn US in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors".

The antitrust suit, filed at a Louisiana district court, called for the termination of alleged trading agreements between the two companies "and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks."

The suit is aimed principally at Barrick`s hedging programme, which has consistently allowed the company, Canada`s biggest gold producer, to realise prices for its gold above the spot price.

Barrick shares closed down 0.8 per cent at C$24.45, while JP Morgan was off 4 per cent at US$24. Ken Warn, Toronto."




Bekomme ich denn freundlicherweise noch eine Antwort von Ihnen?


Beste Grüße

"g-b"

[ThaiGuru]

@goldenbear2

Finde es super was Du da machst.
Habe gerade auch wieder eine Mail Anfrage verschickt.
Auf meine Anfrage bei Blanchart, Sendestille.

Könntest Du nicht für die vielen Leser in Deinem Thread, nebst Deinen Musterbriefen an die Redaktionen, gleich noch die E-Mail Adressen mit angeben, dass diejenigen, die daran interessiert sind zum "Gold Verweigerungstag der Deutschen Presse" etwas aktiv dazu beizutragen können, dass diese Redaktionen mit "höflichen" Protest Mails auf Klick versorgt werden können.

Werde selbst auch nochmals einige weitere Redaktionen anschreiben.

Habe hier den direkten Link zum Formular für Beschwerden bei Reuters.de, die auch zum Nachrichtenkonzern Reuters gehört. Fragt doch mal an, warum den die Mutter Gesellschaft heute schon mehrere Veröffentlichungen zum Thema Blanchart klagt gegen JP-Morgan, und Barrick Gold, wegen Goldpreis Manipulation, im Umfange von 2 Milliarden US Dollar, und die deutsche Reuters.de, jedoch diese Meldung einfach unterschlägt.

Fragt doch auch ob sie in Deutschland zensuriert werden, oder ob es blos ein Versehen sei.

http://www.reuters.de/contact.jhtml;jsessionid=JA4POG35UDS2O…

Bitte Euch darum, wenigstens eine einzige Mail zu versenden, und die Antworten beim goldenbear2 ins Board zu kopieren.

Morgen werden wir ja sehen, ob die Presse in der Schweiz, oder in Deutschland, nicht doch noch darüber berichten.
Doch um das zu bewerkstelligen, sollten alle die schreiben können, denen mal die Leviten lesen. (Die Meinung sagen)

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@ibidum

Du bist überhaupt nicht dumm.

Tresor Zuhause, sehr gut!

Aber gib jetzt auf keinen Fall Deine Adresse im Board bekannt, sonnst kriegst Du womöglich noch ungewollten Besuch.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ibidum]

@ThaiGuru Danke für die Blumen...
Komme gerade von meiner Hausbank, habe dort die gemischten Fonds meiner Kinder korrigiert, d.h. umgeschichtet in UBS(CH)EF-Gold Valor 278869.
Der Tresor ist übrigens halbvoll respektive halbleer mit Silber (ist immer eine Frage der Ansicht )
Ach ja Tresor; der hat bei mir keine Adresse...

@ Alle
Was meint der Rest des Boardes wird es zur "erwarteten" Korrektur beim Goldpreis kommen????

Ich vermute, dass der Unzen Preis nächste Woche ev. auch schon Morgen etwas runtergeht, werdens ja sehen.

Bis bald einmal
Gruss
Ibidum (oder eben nicht)

[bluemoons]

Editorial: Orkan-Warnung für den internationalen Devisenmarkt (19.12.2002)

Schon jetzt lässt sich mit wohl hoher Treffsicherheit voraussagen, dass 2003 an den Rohstoff- und den Finanzmärkten wesentlich von der Entwicklung an der internationalen Devisenfront geprägt wird.

Der US-Dollar steht aller Voraussicht nach vor einer erheblichen Abwertung besonders gegenüber dem Euro und anderen europäischen Währungen. Was mit dem Yen geschieht, ist hingegen völlig offen. Es hängt wesentlich davon ab, ob japanische Anleger weiterhin ihr Heil in Übersee suchen, weil dort durchweg sehr viel höhere Renditen erzielt werden können als an den heimischen Finanzmärkten.

Es zeichnet sich ab, dass die zu erwartende Abwertung des US-Dollar entscheidend von asiatischen Zentralbanken vorangetrieben wird. In diesem Fall muss von strategischen Entscheidungen zur Streuung der Devisenportefeuilles gesprochen werden, die nicht durch kurzfristige Erwägungen oder Einflüsse über den Haufen geworfen werden.

Die Zentral-Banker in Asien wissen nur zu gut, wie schlecht es um die fundamentale Situation des Greenback steht. Sie sind offenbar nicht mehr bereit, die Risiken zu tragen.

EZB-Präsident Duisenberg hat kürzlich bestätigt, dass asiatische Zentralbanken begonnen hätten, in beachtlichem Umfang auf Euro lautende Wertpapiere zu erwerben.

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) hat in seinem 2002 erschienenen Jahresbericht für 2001 dargelegt, dass Ende vergangenen Jahres nur 13 Prozent der globalen Währungsreserven in Euro, aber 68 Prozent in US-Dollar angelegt waren.

Aus den Zahlen des IWF schließt Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW), dass asiatische Zentralbanken rund 55 Prozent aller Währungsreserven im Wert von 1300 Milliarden Dollar halten. Etwa 75 Prozent dieser Reserven dürften nach Schätzung der Investmentbank aus US-Dollar bestehen, aber höchstens 10 Prozent aus Euro.

Sollten die Euro-Reserven 2003 auf nur 15 Prozent erhöht werden, würde dies nach Berechnungen von DrKW Nachfrage nach der Einheitswährung allein aus diesem Grund in Höhe von 65 Milliarden Euro bedeuten. Zu Lasten des US-Dollar natürlich.

Dabei sind die Folgewirkungen oder Sekundäreffekte noch nicht einmal bedacht, denn wenn das private Kapital bemerkt, was die asiatischen Zentralbanken im Schilde führen, kann ein Sturm losbrechen, der nicht nur die gewohnte Landschaft der Devisenmärkte völlig verändert.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber

Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe / Metalle: Keine Aussicht auf nennenswert steigende Metallpreise (19.12.2002)

Außerordentlich gemischt waren die Aussagen der Experten zur Entwicklung der Metallpreise im neuen Jahr schon, als vor Wochen die üblichen Ausblicke verfasst wurden. Seit der US-Dollar in seine jüngste Schwächephase eingetreten ist, fühlen sich viele dieser Fachleute aufgefordert, ihre Prognosen zu modifizieren. Dies erscheint ihnen unabdingbar, weil die Metalle auf dem Weltmarkt in der US-Währung gehandelt werden und weil weithin erwartet wird, dass diese im neuen Jahr auf ein möglicherweise sehr viel niedrigeres Niveau sinkt. Dies wird konjunkturelle Konsequenzen unterschiedlicher, aber vielschichtiger Art haben und auch von dieser Seite her auf Angebot und Nachfrage einwirken.

Ausgeprägt pessimistisch zeigt sich Morgan Stanley. Die konjunkturellen Frühindikatoren deuteten auf eine schleppende Erholung der Weltkonjunktur und somit auch der Nachfrage nach Metallen hin, meint die Investmentbank. Die Periode schwacher Metallpreise werde sich daher hinziehen. Die Konjunktur, die hohen sichtbaren Bestände und Überkapazitäten bei der Metallgewinnung dürften weiter auf die Notierungen drücken. 2003 werde an diesen Märkten daher wohl ähnlich verlaufen wie 2002. Mit einer Erholung sei erst 2004 zu rechnen, doch die dürfte minimal ausfallen. Erst 2005 könnten zyklische Höchstpreise erwartet werden.

Merrill Lynch hofft auf eine etwas beschleunigte Erholung der Weltwirtschaft, ist sich aber nicht sicher, dass dies wirklich erreicht werden kann. An den Metallmärkten werde das neue Jahr im Zeichen leicht anziehender Metallpreise stehen. Die Produzenten dürften sich angesichts schleppender Nachfrage nach Metallen auf Kostensenkungen und Kapazitätsverringerungen konzentrieren, um Angebot und Nachfrage wieder ins Gleichgewicht zu bringen.

Standard Bank erwartet, dass sich die Konjunkturschwäche weit bis ins neue Jahr hinein erstreckt. Der Irak-Konflikt und der Kampf gegen den Terrorismus dürften einen Schatten der Ungewissheit über die Metallmärkte werfen. Eine dauerhafte Erholung der Nachfrage verschiebe sich daher zeitlich immer mehr nach hinten.

Societe Generale (SocGen oder SG) hebt auf die bereits vorgenommenen Einschränkungen der Produktionskapazitäten ab. Einige Metalle könnten daher 2003 knapp werden. Die Metallpreise dürften im nächsten Jahr um weniger als zehn Prozent anziehen, doch liege das Risiko vor allem bei Aluminium in einem geringeren Anstieg. Es dürfe aber nie vergessen werden, dass ein ungewöhnlich großer Umfang stillliegender Produktionskapazitäten über den Märkten hänge.


(9)
Terminmarktwelt

[bluemoons]

J.P. Morgan wegen Goldpreismanipulation verklagt

(Instock) Die US-Investmentbank J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) sowie das Rohstoffunternehmen Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) sind wegen mutmaßlicher Manipulation des Goldpreises angeklagt worden. Als Kläger tritt der in New Orleans ansässige Goldhändler Blanchard & Co auf.

Die beklagten Unternehmen sollen ein Kartell gebildet und aktiv den Goldpreis auf Kosten einzelner Investoren gedrückt haben. Durch Leerverkäufe wurden schließlich rund 2 Milliarden US-Dollar erwirtschaftet, heißt es in der Klageschrift. Barrick und J.P. Morgan arbeiten seit Ende 1987 zusammen.

[ Donnerstag, 19.12.2002, 14:35 ]
Instock

[Schieler]

Singapur (vwd) - Der Goldpreis hat am Donnerstag am asiatischen Markt seinen höchsten Stand seit nahezu sechs Jahren erreicht und kurzzeitig die Marke von 354 USD je Feinunze berührt. Seit Anfang des Monats hat er um nahezu zwölf Prozent zugelegt. Der Grund für die Aufwärtsbewegung liegt nicht nur in der Aussicht auf einen Irak-Krieg, sondern auch in der Sorge vor einer langfristigen Instabilität der Weltfinanzmärkte. Viele Händler zeigten sich am Donnerstag von der Geschwindigkeit des Preisanstiegs überrascht. Kurzfristig orientierte Spekulanten, US-Banken, institutionelle Anleger, Schmuckhersteller und andere Endverbraucher kauften hektisch, und kaum jemand erwartet in nächster Zeit einen deutlichen Preisrückgang.

Der unmittelbare Auslöser für die Rally war die neueste Entwicklung um den drohenden Krieg gegen Irak, die die Anleger nach einem sicheren Hafen in Form des gelben Metalls suchen ließ. Steigende Ölpreise waren ein weiterer Faktor, hier kam die Reputation von Gold als Hedgeinstrument gegen Inflation zum Tragen. Einige Analysten und Händler sehen jedoch tiefer reichende Gründe für die momentane Stärke des Goldpreises, nämlich den verbreiteten Verlust an Vertrauen in andere Märkte und Investment-Tools.

Global agierende Investoren fragen Gold nach in der Hoffnung, der Volatilität und Unvorhersehbarkeit von Aktien, Anleihen und Währungen der vergangenen Jahre zu entgehen. Das gilt insbesondere für die Zeit nach den Terroranschlägen vom 11. September. Für einige Anleger tritt Gold erstmals seit den 80er Jahren wieder als seriöses Investment in Erscheinung.

Technisch orientierte Händler sehen für den Preis eine massive Barriere bei 354,50 USD/Feinunze. Aber auch wenn Gold kurzfristig unter diese Grenze zurückfallen sollte, gehen viele Analysten von einer guten Chance für weitere Gewinne in den kommenden Wochen und Monaten aus. Der Preis steige zu schnell, und es werde eine gewisse Korrektur geben, meint ein Tokioter Metallhändler. Sollte der Markt nach dieser Korrektur aber wieder an Fahrt gewinnen, könne das der Beginn einer langfristigen Rally sein. Wenn der Goldpreis in der kommenden Woche über 350 USD/Feinunze bleiben sollte, werde seine nächste Range zwischen 350 und 400 USD liegen.

Ganz oben auf der Sorgenliste der Investoren steht der Wert des US-Dollars, und anstatt einer anderen großen Währung zu vertrauen, flüchten sie lieber ins Gold. Der Preisanstieg des Edelmetalls zeigt denn auch, dass Anleger sich aus dem Dollar zurückziehen, da dieser seine Vertrauenswürdigkeit verliert, wie der Devisen-Manager einer japanischen Bank sagt. Eine Commodity werde als sicherer gegenüber einer Papierwährung angesehen.

Der Goldpreisanstieg hat auch die Kurse von Goldaktien zulegen lassen. An den asiatischen Wertpapierbörsen kletterten Sumitomo Metal Mining am Donnerstag um 4,6 Prozent und der australische Goldproduzent Newcrest Mining um 2,79 Prozent. Australische Minenwerte konnten nicht in dem Ausmaß gewinnen, denn manche Investoren halten den Goldpreisanstieg offenbar noch nicht für real. Sollte die Rally aber für einen Zeitraum von drei bis sechs Monaten anhalten, könnten sich nach Ansicht eines Analysten einige ausgewählte Goldaktien als Outperformer herausstellen. vwd/19.12.2002/DJ/dz

19. Dezember 2002, 15:27

[bluemoons]

Roland Leuschel

Das Jahr 2003


Das Jahr 2003
Weltwirtschaft: Globale Rezession
Börse besser als 2002
Rückkehr der Inflation ?
Gold auf dem Marsch zu neuen Höchstkursen ?


Eine Kapitalmarktexpertin und Geschäftsführerin einer der grossen deutschen Investmentfondsgesellschaften hat Mitte Dezember dieses Jahres die Meinung der Fondsmanager auf den Punkt gebracht : « Die Stimmung hat sich seit dem Tief im Oktober deutlich aufgehellt. Und bekanntlich nehmen die Börsen wirtschaftliche Verbesserungen meistens um einige Monate vorweg. » Als Realist frage ich mich « welche wirtschaftlichen Verbesserungen » haben dann die Aktienbörsen Ende 1999 vorweggenommen, als der Dow Jones über 11.500, der Dax über 8.000 und die Nasdaq bei 5.000 lagen ? 67% der Fondsmanager erwarten einen Anstieg der Weltkonjunktur und sind entsprechend optimistisch über die Unternehmensgewinne.

Ich hoffe Sie haben meine letzte Kolumne vom 21. November (Ist das Ende der zweiten Kursrallye im aktuellen Bärenmarkt eingeleitet ?) gelesen. Zwei Tage später titelte die Financial Times Deutschland ihre Finanzzeitung « An den Börsen sind die Bullen los » und fasste so die Meinung vieler Medien zusammen. Ich fühlte mich in den Bärenmarkt von 1968 bis 1982 zurückversetzt. Auch damals wurden die Anleger konstant von den Medien und von ihren Investmentbanken in die Irre geführt, indem Ihnen der Beginn eines neuen Bullenmarkt angekündigt wurde.

Mein Szenario für das kommende Jahr sieht anders aus ; denn wenn Optimisten Recht haben sollten, wie zum Beispiel auch die amerikanische Investmentbank Morgan Stanley, die mit Kurssteigerungen von rund 20% in Europa im kommenden Jahr rechnen, und als Begründung angeben, die Eurozone wird mit 1,4% wachsen, aber gleichzeitig vor dem Ende des Zyklus der bisherigen Zinssenkungen warnen, dann wird der Rentenmarkt schwach und die Zinsen werden ansteigen. Das würde bedeuten, Anleihen werden gegenüber Aktien noch attraktiver ! Ich gehe nach wir vor davon aus, dass die Gefahr einer globalen Rezession noch lange nicht gebannt ist, und zitiere den jüngsten Bericht der Weltbank, der die Gefahren für das Wachstum im kommenden Jahr aufzeigt : sinkendes Vertrauen der Verbraucher als Folge der Finanzskandale bedeutender Unternehmen in Amerika, Schieflage der japanischen Banken und die Schuldenprobleme lateinamerikanischer Staaten. Ich füge hinzu, die Gefahr eines Krieges gehört zu diesen Unwägbarkeiten. Zwei deutsche Wirtschaftsinstitute gehen davon aus, dass in diesem Jahr in Deutschland das Wachstum bei 0,2% liegt, also geringer als letztes Jahr, und dass 2003 mit kaum mehr als 1% gerechnet werden kann. Und am Anfang dieses Jahres sprach die ganze Welt von der Konjunkturerholung… Wir sind also noch lange nicht aus dem Konjunkturtal heraus, aber das bedeutet nicht, dass wir an den Aktienbörsen kein Geld verdienen können. Zunächst einmal werden wir noch neue Tiefstkurse erreichen, und ich wiederhole meine Prognose vom Sommer dieses Jahres (vergleiche auch Interview in der Welt am Sonntag vom 6. Oktober), dass der Dax auf das Niveau von 2.250 – 2.500 zurückfallen kann. Dabei bin ich bei weitem nicht am pessimistischsten. Der bekannte Aktienanalyst Wieland Staud glaubt, dass der Dax « zumindest vorrübergehend ein Niveau erreicht, das mit einer eins beginnt », andere Techniker sehen ein Kursziel für den Dax bei 2.032 entweder im Sommer oder im frühen Herbst.

Meine Begründung für höhere Kurse Ende 2003 gegenüber 2002 : Nur zweimal seit 1925 ist der Dow Jones in drei Jahren in Folge eingebrochen, 1929 und 1939. Ende 2002 wird es also zum dritten Mal geschehen, aber und das erscheint mir sehr wichtig, ein viertes negatives Börsenjahr hintereinander ist bisher noch nicht eingetreten, und daher extrem unwahrscheinlich. Ausschliessen kann man es dennoch nicht, denn Märkte haben kein Gedächtnis. Ein anderer Grund : Seit es den Dax gibt (1959) hat er in einer Baisse noch nie so viel verloren wie zwischen März 2000 und Oktober 2002 (rund 70%). Der einzige vergleichbare Kursrückgang ereignete sich nach der Kubakrise (1962), dem Jahr in dem ich als Finanzanalyst in Frankfurt begann. Praktisch hatte der Dax bis zum Juli 1982 eine Seitwärtsbewegung. Wenn ich also für Ende 2003 höhere Aktienkurse vorhersehe, dann muss ich gleichzeitig davor warnen, dass wir noch viele Jahre in einer Seitwärtsbewegung bleiben werden, wahrscheinlich bis 2012. Ein Faktor für diese Szenario ist die nach wie vor extrem hohe Börsenbewertung der Aktien. Der Gewinn pro Aktie des Standard & Poors 500 Index in den vergangenen 12 Monaten beträgt 26,74 US-Dollar. Im historischen Vergleich wäre das ungefähr das Niveau von Ende 1994, als der Standard & Poors Index bei 460 lag (heute 900). Aber Standard & Poors hat die Gewinne neu berechnet (sogenannte Core Earnings), und dabei die Verpflichtungen der Unternehmen aus Mitarbeiter-Optionsprogrammen und Pensionskassen berücksichtigt und kommt auf 18,48 Dollar, das heisst die KGV des Standard & Poors 500 wäre bei augenblicklichem Indexstand bei 50. Da auch andere klassische Kennzahlen der Fundamentalanalyse sich auf einem derart hohen Niveau befinden, die eher das Ende eines Bullenmarktes als dessen Anfang signalisieren, werden wir wohl noch einige Jahre mit einer Konsolidierung zu rechnen haben. Den verbliebenen, zahlreichen Bullen bleibt im Grunde genommen nur noch das sogenannte Fed-Modell, das die Unternehmensgewinne mit dem langfristigen Zins für Staatsanleihen vergleicht. Ganz abgesehen davon, dass dieses Fed-Modell wirklich nicht funktioniert und eher eine Schimäre ist (der Nikkei 225 müsste nach diesem Modell bei 30.000 stehen !), rechne ich wegen der enorm steigenden Staatsverschuldung mit höheren langfristigen Zinsen, und damit wäre auch dieses Argument Fed-Modell hinfällig. Ich rechne damit, dass Sir Print A Lot of Money weiterhin die kurzfristigen Zinsen senken wird und notfalls das Geld mit Hubschraubern über den grossen Städten Amerikas abwerfen wird, sodass der Markt einfach zu viel Liquidität bekommt. Da gleichzeitig der jetzt noch boomende Immobilienmarkt in Amerika und Grossbritannien einen Kollaps erleiden könnte, werden die Anleger versucht sein, ihr Glück in Aktien zu suchen, die ja auch Substanzwerte sein können. Die hohen Staatsdefizite und die Kosten eines Krieges könnten die Inflationsraten in der Welt steigen lassen, und eine Renaissance des Goldpreises bewirken.

Ich empfehle nach wie vor 70 bis 90% in Cash bzw kurzlaufende Triple A Anleihen zu investieren, 3 bis 5% in physisches Gold und wie in diesem Jahr die Zwischenerholungen zu nutzen, um mit Value-Aktien, wie IBM, Allianz, Phillip Morris, Siemens etc., Gewinne einzufahren.

In der Vergangenheit haben Berufsoptimisten und auch viele Investmentbanken dem Anleger eingehämmert, dass Aktien langfristig Anleihen schlagen. Das stimmt, allerdings nur langfristig. Es ist bemerkenswert, dass ein amerikanischer Stratege James Montier von der DrKW errechnet hat, dass « unter den derzeit herrschenden Bedingungen es 52 Jahre dauern wird, bis die akkumulierten, realen Einkünfte aus amerikanischen Aktien die akkumulierten, realen Einkünfte aus Anleihen übertreffen werden ». Wie die Ergebnisse eines Berufsoptimisten an der Börse ausfallen, sehen Sie an Heiko Thieme, sein Fonds Thieme Fonds International hat seit Jahresbeginn 65% seines Wertes verloren und seit 3 Jahren 85%. Er ist damit unter den 3 schlechtesten der insgesamt 462 Fonds Aktien International. James Montier hat mit Sicherheit nicht an diesen Fonds gedacht, als er seinen Anlagehorizont auf 52 Jahre setzte.

Roland Leuschel

P.S. Am 25.1.2003 findet im Künstlerhaus in München das Goldbrief-Seminar statt, auf dem ich ausführlich über den drohenden Kollaps des Weltfinanz- und Rentensystems sprechen werde. Unter anderen wird Johann A. Saiger über die Investitionsmöglichkeiten im Goldsektor berichten. (Information unter der Telefonnummer : 0174 – 84.58.147)


19.12.2002

[bluemoons]

Goldpreis nimmt Kurs auf Sechs-Jahres-Hoch


Analyst: "Gold ist heiß"


Gold hat am Donnerstag erneut markant zugelegt und war zeitweise so teuer wie seit fast sechs Jahren nicht mehr. Vor allem die zunehmende Angst vor einem Krieg im Irak trieb die Anleger in das als sicherer Hafen geltende Metall, sagten Händler.


Reuters LONDON/ZÜRICH. „Gold brennt. Es geht nur um Ängste und Liquidität ... da gibt es diesen enormen Appetit, weil alternative Investitionsmöglichkeiten schwinden,“ sagte Analyst Andy Maag von UBS Warburg.

Gold hat dieses Jahr bisher rund 25 Prozent an Wert gewonnen. Die Konflikte im Nahen Osten und Irak, die Angst vor Terroranschlägen, der schwache Dollar und fallende Aktienmärkte verliehen dem Metall Auftrieb und machten es zu einer der am besten rentierenden Anlagen. Gold ist in Zeiten politischer und wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheiten traditionell gesucht und ein tiefer Dollar macht das in dieser Währung notierte Metall für Anleger ausserhalb des Dollar-Raumes attraktiver.

Das Londoner Vormittagsfixing erfolgte bei 345,75 Dollar je Feinunze und damit auf dem höchsten Stand seit Mai 1997. Am Mittwochnachmittag wurde das Metall mit 338,00 Dollar gefixt. In einem hektischen Handel schnellte Gold zwischenzeitlich bis auf 353,75 Dollar hinauf - das höchste Niveau seit März 1997. Gegen 14.00 Uhr lag der Spotpreis bei 347,50/348,50 Dollar.

Den Kurssprung schrieben Händler vor allem der Erwartung einer baldigen Bewertung des vom Irak vorgelegten Waffenberichts durch die USA zu. Es werde ausgegangen, dass die USA dem Irak in der offiziellen Stellungnahme Versäumnisse vorwerfen, die einem Bruch der Uno-Resolution gleichkommen. Der Vorwurf einer „schwerwiegenden Verletzung“ könnte den Auftakt zu einem Krieg gegen das Land darstellen. Die US-Behörden betonten jedoch, dass eine Verletzung der Resolution noch nicht automatisch Krieg bedeuten würde.

Nachdem zuletzt verschiedene Marktbeobachter aufgrund von technischen Faktoren ein langsames Ende des Aufwärtstrends bei Gold gesehen hatten, wird nun ein weiterer Anstiege nicht mehr ausgeschlossen.

„Die Aussicht auf einen anhaltend schwachen Dollar, die Bedrohung durch weitere Terroranschläge in den USA und in Grossbritannien sowie die Möglichkeit eines weiteren Krieges in Irak werden den Markt in den nächsten Monaten sehr nervös machen und dem gelben Metall die Möglichkeit weiterer Gewinne bieten,“ sagte Analyst James Moore von TheBulliondesk.com. 355 Dollar dürfte einen Widerstand darstellen, danach sei ein Anstieg bis etwa 420 Dollar möglich, so Moore.

In einem Marktbericht von JP Morgan hieß es, Gold stehe an einem wichtigen Punkt. „Gold wird entweder in der Gegend um 350 Dollar zum Stillstand kommen und damit signalisieren, dass die Bandbreite der letzten drei Jahre weiter gültig und der 15-jährige Abwärtstrend intakt ist. Oder es wird weiter steigen und die kürzlichen Gewinne aufrecht erhalten,“ so die US-Investmentbank weiter.

Der Goldpreis notierte schon deutlich höher. So kostete das Edelmetall in den frühen 80-er Jahre bis zu 850 Dollar je Feinunze. Zu Beginn des Golfkrieges im Januar 1991 war Gold für gut 400 Dollar zu haben.


HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 19. Dezember 2002, 14:37 Uhr

[ThaiGuru]

Hallo und guten Morgen aus Thailand

Es ist gerade hell geworden draussen, die Sonne geht auf, es ist angenehm warm mit 26 Grad, fast schon zu warm eigentlich für diese Jahreszeit. Ein kurzer Blick auf den Gold Chart, und schon wird klar, nichts Grossartiges verpasst zu haben.

Trotzdem kommt etwas Freude auf. Der Goldpreis ist obengeblieben, nein nicht so hoch oben, als er noch gestern Nacht bei über 354.- Dollar stand, und mir, und auch vielen anderen Gold Bugs so viele Emotionen, und eine Schlaflose Nacht bescherte. Wie lange hatten wir auf einen solchen Tag gewartet. Einige schrieben doch im Board schon wieder von einer Korrektur die da beim Goldpreis anstehen sollte. Aber die Korrektur kam nicht. Im Gegenteil, im asiatischen Handel ging es hoch mit dem Goldpreis, aber gewaltig, gestoppt erst bei über 354.-Dollar. 12.20 Dollar hoch an einem Stück in nur gerade mal 3 Stunden. Wie lange ist das schon her, solch einen Anstieg beim Gold ansehen zu können. Ob der Auslöser dazu nun die Meldung zur Klage wegen Goldpreismanipulation gegen JPM, und Barrik war, oder die wachsende Angst der Asiaten vor einem Krieg, ist dabei nicht einmal so wichtig. Wichtig war nur, zu sehen, dass der Goldpreis trotz der jahrelangen, auch heute noch bestehenden Manipulationen reagieren kann, und noch dazu gewaltig.

Meine Hoffnung das der PoG gleich dort oben bleibt, hat sich leider noch nicht erfüllt. Doch oben hat er sich gehalten, und mit 345.50 Dollar, 3.7o Dollar höher als am Vortag.

Die Gold Minen Aktien haben gestern eigentlich fast alle entäuscht, und zum Teil sogar noch im Preis abgegeben. Ueber die Gründe dafür gehen die Meinungen im Board ja wie man lesen konnte, weit auseinander. Möchte mich darüber aber auch nicht auslassen. Doch eines ist gewiss, bei einem Goldpreis von 340.- Dollar, oder höher, werden wir bei den meisten Minen in Zukunft, gewaltig besser ausfallende Bilanzen, und Erträge zu sehen kriegen, als es bisher der Fall war. Bei Einigen Minen wird der höhere Goldpreis noch eine gewaltige Hebelwirkung auf die Erträge entfalten, falls die Goldnotierungen weiterhin stark bleiben, oder wie ich überzeugt bin, noch zusätzlich weiter ansteigen. Wenn zum Beispiel eine ungehedgte Mine, sagen wir einmal als Beispiel 1 Mio Unzen Gold im Jahr produzierte, und bisher nur gerade eben kostendeckend arbeiten konnte, jetzt aber neu, 1 Mio. x 30.-, oder 40.- Dollar mehr pro Unze Gold erhält, würde diese Mine im nächsten Jahr, gleich bleibende Produktionskosten vorausgesetzt, von Zero Gewinn, 30, oder 40 Millionen Dollar Gewinn ausweisen. Die Gewinne vieler Minen werden mit 3 Monatiger Verzögerung massiv ansteigen. Das wir von einigen Postern im Board anscheinend immer noch übersehen.

Auch wenn die Zahlen vieler Minen zur Zeit noch nicht sehr gut aussehen mögen, wie gestern ein User in seinem Thread richtigerweise feststellte, und Goldminen sogar mit Neuer Markt Firmen verglich. Die Gewinne der meisten Goldminen werden, bei anhaltend starken Goldpreis, oder noch weiter steigendem Goldpreis, im Gegensatzt zu NM Firmen massiv ansteigen. Wer die Bilanzen von Goldminen mit denen von NM Firmen auch nur schon vergleichen will, hat leider immer noch nichts von Goldminen, und Goldgeschehen verstanden.

Gold Minen produzieren Gold = echtes Geld!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[goldenbear2]

Morgen Thai
Tja, und es geht schon wieder munter hoch.
Werde aber denn doch nicht mehr wach sein, um den Start in HK zu sehen.
Hoffe in einigen Stunden, wenn hier die Sonne blinzelt, eine 35x zu sehen

[Khampan]

cooler chart zur Abkühlung:

[ThaiGuru]

Yesterday we saw the forces at GATA and Blanchard Coin Dealers sue JP Morgan and American Barrick for manipulation of the gold market for the total sum of 2-billion (American Dollars).

As we have noted in the past we usually don’t getting into theories of manipulation and the like. However, we could not deny the fact that there was a HUGE short position in gold and that in all probability this short position was made up of those who have a vested interest in seeing gold decline in price. Also note that we sold our Barrick for a slight perfect months ago. Also note that technically Barrick has been acting miserably so the market definitely knew that “something was up” months in advance. Please see the chart our chart of Barrick below:



We believe that gold has now begun a major bull market (we had believed this for the past 2 years, it was just the breakout above 330 dollars an ounce has now confirmed this belief). In addition, to the gold breakout we saw a U.S. dollar breakdown. The dollar fell below its summer lows over the past week. In doing so it (a) as just mentioned took out the lows of the summer which had been acting as a very important support level and (b) broke through the 7-year uptrend dating back to 1995 which we had discussed in our “Dollar Dilemma articles” on www.kitco.com.

For graphs of both the Gold breakout and Dollar breakdown please see the charts below:





Over the short-term it is really impossible to predict if gold will continue on this tear. The short position is so huge we could see another round of panic buying. However, we could also see a very vicious pullback. If we were gambling men (which we aren’t) we would be betting on the later. This being a pretty good pullback that will be followed by higher prices in January and February. If you are a short-term trader you may want to sell some positions, but longer-term players should stay long. A chart of the HUI gold bugs index is located below.



We are adding two juniors to profit from the “year of the junior” which we have declared 2003 to be. The juniors we are recommending are GoldBrook Resources (GBK.V) and Frontier Resources (FRG.V). In addition, we have finished writeups on four of our junior companies. Expect these to be emailed out over the next few days.



Note that the CRB has broken out above 237, therefore taking out its 2000 high. This marks the first time in the past 22 years that the CRB index has made a higher high. The next major level is the 250 area which is where the long term downtrend line lies. If this line is taken out then commodities will have begun a major up cycle, which would therefore make it IMPOSSIBLE for deflation to occur. At the moment we see deflation as an “old wives tale”. Please see the long-term chart of the CRB Below:



On a final note please note that Dave Skarica will be appearing on ROBTV on Friday, January 20th at 6:30pm est on The Bottom Line’s Small Cap Stock Segment.

Dave Skarica

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Dec 19 2002

Today has been Japan’s day. Watching TOCOM’s wonderful website page for gold http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html ; it updates on line if you refresh it) last night was a window into what my friend the Canadian chartist Ian MacAvity likes to call a "religious experience" for shorts: gold surged to $354 by the early Japanese afternoon, fell back, and then surged again to close at $351.50., $9.50 above NY’s close.

Clearly there were short positions under stress. But more important is grasping what was putting them under stress. Besides the pain of a high ($342) NY close, the Japanese public has emerged as a huge buyer. TOCOM volume soared 135% to the equivalent of 81,173 Comex lots and open interest jumped an enormous 12,005 Comex contracts. Most TOCOM contracts were locked up their limit almost all day: hence the rally when gold dropped. (Comex traded an estimated 43,000 lots yesterday.)

Why have the Japanese started buying on strength? They were sellers a week or so ago. Simply, there appears to have been a hive mind shift in favour of hard assets in Japan: perhaps they fear monetary debasement. TOCM had a record day as a whole today in terms of volume across its’ range of contracts. The alert CBSMarketWatch website has found a Japanese strategist to articulate this view:

""A rally in commodity prices suggest that people are reallocating their money to safe-heaven assets", said Masatoshi Sato, a senior strategist from Mizuho Investors Securities."

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid…

If the Japanese public is really willing to pay $350 for structural reasons, then what happens in NY today is of limited importance.

India has at last responded in the usual style to gold’s leap: ex-duty premiums were AM ($0.24) PM ($4.47) with world gold at $350 and $348, well below legal import level. (Duty today works out to about $16.17 an ounce, so, of course, Indian prices continue well above world prices.

A noted long-time gold bear: Insinuates that Goldman Sachs is involved in this squeeze, and offering a host of reasons why any resulting spike will be fleeting, he nevertheless declares himself a (short term) bull and to be "long loonies.

This noted analyst’s long calls in the past have been very accurate (post Washington Accord, post 9/11). This move is going further than most now realize.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

December 19 - Gold $346.10 up $4.30 - Silver $4.69 up 3 cents

Japanese Gold Stampede / Blood In The Water

The most important gold market development concerns Japan and is brought to you by John Brimelow who says, "This looks real."

The new Comex open interest is 202,161 contracts. It rose only 611 contracts yesterday. A very savvy, veteran trader on Comex believes this open interest could go all the way up to 400,000 contracts before all is said and done. Wouldn’t that be something! In the past, 250,000 contracts would have been thought excessive.

Talk about volatility! Over the last 24 hours gold traded in a $13 range. That kind of volatility is very dangerous to the massive short positions.
It was the increased option volatility that blew up the Ashanti hedge book during the Washington Agreement spike of 1999. Gold spiked to $337 then.

Today’s spike was around $17 more than that and The Gold Cartel has exhausted 3 years gold supply since the Washington Agreement was announced on September 26, 1999. With a yearly supply demand deficit of approximately 1400 tonnes, that amounts to 4200 tonnes of central bank gold that is no longer available to stop the gold spike this go around.

What a chart!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/23

Since the release of the Howe/Bolser report on December 4, gold has closed higher 12 out of the last 14 trading sessions.

The two down days were minor ones. Clearly a powerful group of longs are going after the hopelessly trapped shorts. They know what they are doing and have maneuvered perfectly. I suspect The Gold Cartel knows they are in really big trouble. All of their efforts to take gold down continue to fail. Today was no exception.

Late yesterday I heard through the grapevine that certain bullion dealers were looking for central bank gold to dump into the market and they could not find any. Finally, with gold over $350, one bullion banker was able to come up with a few tonnes to quell the rally. That won’t last very long if the Japanese are on a gold rampage.

The smart money buyers are going after gold as if they were sharks that have found blood in the water. That makes sense, especially with the Howe/Bolser and Veneroso reports for support. There is the potential for a short squeeze like never seen before.

These Dr. No and Hung Fat buyers continue to pick their spots. If the physical market continues to firm up at higher and higher prices, The Gold Cartel is finished. That could come at any time. GATA stretcher-bearer, please stand by.

Every week from here on in, the noose will tighten a little more around the cabal.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Ob die Richtung heute auch stimmt?

[ThaiGuru]

Ob die Richtung heute auch stimmt?

[ThaiGuru]

Das wurde aber schon fast unheimlich schnell, und ungewöhnlich unbürokratisch beschlossen.

Die Meldung kam gerade auf Deutsche Welle TV


Deutschland schafft 65 Millionen Einheiten Pocken-Impfschutz an


Bei Reuters Deuschland gibt`s die Meldung auch
http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=1OSSAGFD…

Soll mir nun aber bitte keiner sagen, diese Meldung habe nichts mit dem Goldpreis zu tun.

Gruss

Tahiguru

[Waschbr]

Thursday, 19 December, 2002, 08:28 GMT

Chinese shoppers queue for gold

China has allowed its citizens to buy gold bullion for the first time since the Communist Party took power in 1949.
Shoppers queued on Thursday to look at gold bars on sale in department stores in Beijing and the southern city of Nanjing.

Easing restrictions on gold sales is designed to create a new investment outlet for China`s huge pile of household savings, worth nearly $1bn.

Analysts think demand for gold in China will rise sharply as a result of opening up sales of the metal to individual investors, and could even double.

Lucky purchase

The gold bars on sale ranged from 10 grams to one and quarter kilos, the official China Daily newspaper reported.

Some were stamped with a design of a sheep, a Chinese astrological animal. The year of the sheep begins at Chinese New Year in February 2003, making the sheep a particularly auspicious sign.

Gold for sale by retailers is being distributed by two firms, Zhongjin Gold Co, the country`s foremost gold processor, and Zhaojin Gold and Silver Refinery, China Daily said.

However, the gold price is set by the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), created when China ended the state monopoly on pricing gold two months ago.

The price of gold in the shops "cannot be as sensitive as SGE`s and the store will not change price too frequently," said Wang Chunli, manager of Caishikou Department Store in Beijing, which is selling gold bars.

Bars stamped with sheep patterns "are a little more expensive because of their decoration," said Mr Wang.

Global impact?

"Gold demand in the country will soon double from the current level of around 200 tons a year as result of the opening up of the business," Liu Shan`en of Beijing Gold Economics Research Centre reportedly told China Daily.

All the gold bars available for retail sale are 99.99% pure gold, the paper said. Buyers can sell their gold bars back to the distributors, minus commission.

Other moves to develop the gold market include plans for Chinas big four commercial banks to offer gold-related investment products to individual investors next year.

Fears about the possible impact of a Middle East war on the world economy have pushed up gold prices in recent days.

Global stock market falls earlier in the year also benefitted the gold price.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2589613.stm