B2B - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[AndyBusch]

Hallo

Damit wir wissen worüber wir diskutieren: Hier eine Auswahl von (bereits im "B trendy"-thread aufgelisteten) Firmen, die im Merill Lynch HLDRs enthalten sind.
Ariba,Internet Capital Group, Commerce One, VerticalNet, FreeMarkets, Ventro, CareInsite, Scient, CheckFree, Agile Software, PurchasePro.com, Sterling Commerce, SciQuest.com, Silknet Software, Retek, Proxicom, Harbinger, QRS, Pegasus Systems, ImageX.com .

Es steht außer Frage: B2B ist trendy.
Ich möchte noch eine Anregung von Bischoff aus dem "B trendy" thread mit aufnehmen, damit die Diskussion nicht verengt wird:
Nicht nur reinrassige B2B Unternehmen profitieren von dem B2B-Trend, sondern z.B. auch Unternehmen wo es Synergien gibt - wie bei SAP mit ihrer betriebswirtschaftlichen Software und mySAP - und Unternehmen, die Sicherheitslösungen in diesem hochsensiblen Bereich entwickeln und verweise in diesem Zusammenhang auf den thread Sicherheits-Aktien". D.h. wenn wer noch andere Unternehmen/Bereiche kennt, die vom B2B-Boom profitieren, halte er/sie diese nicht geheim.

Vielleicht ist das Ergebnis der hoffentlich lebhaften Diskussion, daß B2B nur ein Strohfeuer ist, oder daß man B2B-Aktien meiden sollte.
Meine persönliche Meinung ist, daß B2B bereits eine kritische Masse erreicht hat und einer der Megatrends der nächsten Jahre sein wird. Ich versuche jedenfalls in nächster Zeit einige interessante Artikel, die ich im Internet aufstöbere in diesen Thread zu posten.

Ein Bild sagt mehr wie tausend Worte:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?cs=AR…

Grüße
Andy

p.s. ich habe mir die erste Aktie der Liste rausgegriffen. Ich weiß zufällig , daß sie sich gut entwickelt hat.

[AndyBusch]

!

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[AndyBusch]

Hallo
Zunächst eine kleine Bosheit :
Ich habe aufgrund einiger Board-Beiträge den Eindruck, daß bei der SAC-Analyse zum B2B Markt nur SAP herausgekommen ist. Wenn das so ist, so ist das ein bißchen dünn.
Was ich unter Analyse verstehe, ist die Analyse von INFORMATIONWEEK (s.u.).
Für den, der den langen Text nicht lesen will ein paar Punkte, die mir aufgefallen sind:

1. in diesem Markt versuchen alle Big Player einen Fuß in die Tür zu bekommen und wuchern mit ihren Pfunden (Cybergeld und Synergien):
- Oracle: Database, E-business Anwendungen
- SAP: betriebswirtschaftlicher SW + mySPA.com (scheint im Moment nicht vorne mitzumischen)
- IBM: allround player, außerdem Beteiligungen
- Microsoft: was man nicht selbst macht/machen kann kauft man eben mal schnell oder beteiligt sich.

2. Langsam lichtet sich der Nebel und am Horizont tauchen reinrassige B2B-Unternehmen auf, die sich anschicken eine gewichtige Rolle zu spielen. Wer/welche das Rennen macht/machen ist aber noch unsicher.
- Ariba
- Vertical Net
- Commerce One
Besonderes Augenmerk sollte man m.E. auf die Investitionen IBMs in Ariba und MSFTs in Vertical Net legen (wenn wer weiß wo es Geld zu holen gibt, dann Bill Gates). Auch GM hat eine Option, 20 % an Commerce One zu kaufen.

3. Geldverdienen
Es gibt 4 Modelle des Geldverdienens:
- hardware, middleware, und "integration services" (IBM)
- Gebühr pro Transaktion (Ariba, Oracle)
- Betreiber (Operator) virtueller Marktplätze (Commerce One)
- Software Lizensierung

4. Risiken für die B2B-Firmen
Global Player wie SAP oder MSFT reißen den Markt an sich. Man kanns aber auch andersrum sehen ?

Anmerkung von mir: Die Aktienkurse der B2B-Unternehmen sind sehr volatil, was man evtl zum bottom-fishing ausnützen kann. Die Chart-Technik liefert bei der Dynamik, die im Markt ist, jedenfalls nicht immer die richtigen Signale.

New Market Makers -- Technology Vendors Are Trying To Position Themselves As TheOperators Of The Infrastructure For E-Business Sat Mar 11 00:56:00 EST 2000

Mar. 10, 2000 (InformationWeek - CMP via COMTEX) -- Electronic
business-to-business marketplaces have evolved in just a few months from a niche
served by startup technology companies to arguably the primary battleground for
major enterprise software vendors. IBM, Oracle, and others are aggressively
moving onto turf carved out by pioneers Ariba Inc. and Commerce One Inc., and
all are trying to develop closer relationships with their customers. A core
issue for businesses: How much control should technology vendors have over this
key area of the new economy?

Net marketplaces will handle $2.71 trillion in E-commerce transactions by 2004,
or 37% of the overall business-to-business market, predicts Gartner Group. The
reason for such optimistic forecasts is that E-markets, or exchanges, offer
companies an opportunity to transform their supply chains. "Brick-and-mortar
companies are thinking of managing their entire supply chains differently, which
can lead to dramatic reductions in inventory and improvements in build-to-order
cycles," says Charles Phillips, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Because marketplace technology is still relatively new, vendors are scrambling
to provide all the applications companies need to achieve these benefits. Last
week, Ariba, IBM, and i2 Technologies formed an alliance aimed at the burgeoning
market. IBM will invest $400 million in Ariba and $200 million in i2. Ariba and
i2 will still compete for other E-marketplace deals, but they`ll work together
when IBM is involved. "What`s going on in the world of E-commerce and B-to-B
marketplaces is much bigger than any one company," Ariba chairman and CEO Keith
Krach said at a New York news conference announcing the partnership.

Right now, major vendors offer much of the same basic functionality-catalog and
auction purchases, purchase-order management, and supply-chain management, for
example. Some software companies are building and running exchanges and charging
sellers, and sometimes buyers, a transaction fee, a small percentage of every
online sale. Others are simply licensing the software to companies that want to
build and operate marketplaces themselves.

If software vendors emerge as operators of the infrastructure for E-business,
they`ll become key partners for many companies. A hint of what could come:
General Motors Corp. has the option to buy as much as 20% of Commerce One if
enough transactions are handled by the GM TradeXchange supplier marketplace. GM
TradeXchange will merge with Ford Motor Co.`s AutoXchange and will add
DaimlerChrysler to create an auto-industry megamarketplace in the next few
months (Feb. 28, p. 22; information week.com/775/marketplace.htm).

Such equity arrangements are not without risk. "If you`re not happy with the
software, you`re kind of locked in," says Tim Clark, VP of advisory services for
Net Market Makers, a research and consulting firm. "If you jump to another
vendor, that could make the value of the stock you own go down."

Changes in the vendor-customer relationship are being driven, in part, by
businesses` demands that suppliers of marketplace technology do more than just
develop software, says Doug Maulbetsch, CIO of GM TradeXchange. Software vendors
should also manage supply chains, develop sales and marketing plans, and bring
new suppliers into the system. "We`re looking for someone who can not only
provide the software, but also the know-how for running business-to-business
exchanges," Maulbetsch says.

Oracle chairman and CEO Larry Ellison says that`s the perfect opportunity for
his company. Ellison says Oracle`s strength in database, supply-chain, and
procurement applications gives it an edge. With typical bravado, Ellison
predicts Oracle will become the No. 1 provider of Net marketplace technology by
the time its fiscal quarter ends May 31. "Exchanges are very complex, with
managing customer relationships and inventory levels and automating the supply
chain," he says. "Nobody else really has all the pieces."

Oracle`s strategy is to partner with one or two powerful companies in key
vertical industries, with the principals charging and sharing transaction fees.
Last week, Oracle said it will work with Chevron Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores
Inc.`s distribution subsidiary McLane Co. to create a marketplace for the $200
billion convenience-store industry. The companies will be business partners in
the exchange and offer equity stakes to other participants-with an eye toward an
eventual public stock offering.

Oracle, Chevron, and McLane are aiming for a summer launch of
RetailersMarketXchange.com, which will let convenience-store operators buy goods
online. It will use Oracle`s Exchange Suite platform and infrastructure
software, including Oracle`s database, application server, E-business
applications (procurement, supply-chain planning, logistics planning, and
distribution), and business-intelligence tools for analyzing supply patterns and
conducting demand forecasting.

"I always associate Oracle with database management and their strengths there,"
says Chevron CEO Dave O`Reilly. "But they truly have added a lot of dimensions
to their company`s portfolio of technologies. In addition to jumping on the
Internet, I look at the work Oracle has done on customer-relationship
management, on transactions and procurement-this whole suite of technologies is
well-suited to this particular opportunity."

In recent weeks, Oracle has landed Ford, Sears Roebuck, French retail giant
Carrefour, and now Chevron and the Wal-Mart unit as marketplace-building
customers. "The company is very well-positioned," says Lara Abrams, a senior
analyst at the Aberdeen Group. "Oracle is the database behind most of the
business-to-business market makers, and it has a tremendous amount of
supply-chain expertise. And it understands the need to integrate E-business
demands with supply-chain requirements."

IBM and its partners argue that no single vendor-not even Oracle-can provide all
the pieces needed to build marketplaces. The companies say they will combine
technologies and services, including IBM`s hardware, middleware, and E-commerce
software; Ariba`s network services and ORMS suite of procurement applications;
and i2`s TradeMatrix and business-to-business software, which are built on its
supply-chain planning and collaboration technology.

The approach may help customers with one of the most important goals in building
marketplaces: speed. "The fact that these guys are working together creates an
opportunity to accelerate the time to market," says Bob Lumpkins, vice chairman
of agribusiness giant Cargill Inc. "We`re in a world of winner-takes-most, and
getting there first makes all the difference.``

Software from Ariba and i2 will become the foundation of IBM`s internal
procurement and supply-chain system, which handles $45 billion annually. The IBM
system will become a test bed for Ariba and i2 to experiment with enhancements
to their software. "IBM is able to walk into a big customer now with an Internet
exchange solution in its hip pocket," says Vern Keenan, an analyst at research
firm Keenan Vision.

Ariba charges transaction fees for exchanges it hosts, but IBM says it has no
plans to do so. "We`re going to make revenue the old-fashioned way, on hardware,
middleware, and integration services," says Bill Etherington, senior VP and
group executive for IBM sales and distribution.

Commerce One may be the leader in powering marketplaces; it claims to have 35
customers running or building marketplaces, including major companies such as
BT, Citigroup, Shell, and Toronto Dominion Bank. Commerce One characterizes the
approach of Oracle, SAP, and even Ariba as "application-driven," as opposed to
its "portal-driven" approach, in which all of its marketplaces are linked via
its Global Trading Hub.

"I don`t fault SAP and Oracle for doing it their way, but it doesn`t necessarily
translate to the Web world," says Chuck Donchess, Commerce One`s executive VP
and chief strategy officer. "You need a trading community that can talk to the
whole market."

Oracle is days away from launching a "horizontal" marketplace called Oracle
Exchange, where it plans to emulate the trading community approach.

Commerce One and Ariba started out selling Web-procurement applications. Both
still do. But Commerce One has moved further away from the software business to
be an operator of marketplaces. It`s not selling many applications without a
marketplace-building deal to go with them. "We just don`t think the center of
the universe is our application," Donchess says. "The center is a portal that
can bring many diverse companies together, regardless of what commerce
application or database they use."

The leading marketplace providers may face competition from independent
companies building E-markets using technology from second-tier vendors. They`ll
also have to grapple with two software giants that have joined the fray late:
SAP and Microsoft.

SAP is moving, albeit slowly, into the role of online trading exchange partner.
During the past few months, it has disclosed deals with Norway`s Statoil for an
oil-and-gas marketplace, and BASF and Bayer for a chemical exchange. But only
its mySAP.com Marketplace, a general business-to-business exchange, is in
operation.

Analysts and partners say mySAP .com Marketplace`s features and functions are
rudimentary. It`s still missing key commerce features such as auction and
bidding capabilities, which SAP promises by June. Further out is the ability to
collaborate with trading partners on product development and demand planning.

Earlier this month, Microsoft bought an undisclosed stake in Radiant Systems
Inc., a developer of software for gas-station convenience stores. The companies
plan to build a convenience-store marketplace for Shell Oil similar to the
Oracle-Chevron-McLane effort. In January, Microsoft took a $100 million stake in
marketplace operator VerticalNet Inc., and last month it invested an undisclosed
amount in Honeywell Inc.`s MyPlant .com exchange for process plants.

Laura Jennings, Microsoft`s worldwide VP of strategic planning, says the company
won`t copy Oracle`s practice of charging transaction fees-at least not in heavy
industries. "That`s a short-term window of opportunity," she says. The
transaction-fee model won`t work in sectors such as auto manufacturing where a
small number of buyers controls the action, she says.

Which vendors will come out on top? It`s too early to tell. "We`re still in the
building phase," says analyst Keenan. "There`s so much market interest right now
that there`s a lot of work for everybody." -With Beth Bacheldor, Alorie Gilbert,
Matthew G. Nelson, Aaron Ricadela, and Rick Whiting
---
Leading Marketplace Offerings

Ariba
Ariba Market Suite: XML and Enterprise JavaBeans applications for auctions and
bid/ask pricing

Commerce One
MarketSite Portal Solution 3: XML applications for buy/sell transactions,
content management, auctions, shipping, payment, and taxation, plus development
and trading partner-integration tools

IBM
DB2 database; MQSeries middleware; WebSphere and WebSphere Commerce Suite
E-commerce software; support, systems integration, and hosting services from IBM
Global Services; and software and services from partners Ariba and i2
Technologies

Oracle
Oracle Exchange Suite: Procurement applications for auction and catalog buying;
supply-chain management applications for order management, advanced planning and
scheduling, and distribution; platform and infrastructure products, including
Oracle8i database and Oracle Application Server; development tools such as XML
Developers Kit; and Oracle Business OnLine application hosting service

SAP
MySAP.com Marketplace: A Web trading exchange for general business supplies,
services, and information

[Bischoff]

Hallo Andy ,
ist ein schöner Chart .
Nichts für ungut , aber ich habe meineSAP.com am 6.4.1999 für 290,5€ in Frankfurt gekauft . Wann hast Du Deine Ariba gekauft?
Ein bisschen Spielgeld kann man immer in kleine Emporkömmlinge wie Ariba(380 Mitarbeiter) oder Commerce one(260 Mitarbeiter), two usw anlegen .( mache ich auch oft) Aber mit richtigem Geld gehe ich nur in die Oberliga (da ist SAP schon lange) und da müssen die meisten erst hin .

MFG Bischoff

[AndyBusch]

Hallo Bischoff

Nichts für ungut.
Ich wollte eigentlich nicht darüber diskutieren, wann ich Ariba oder VERT gekauft habe. Das ist sowieso nicht nachprüfbar genausowenig wie wann du deine SAP gekauft hast.

D.h. ich halte nichts von Aussagen wie: ich habe Aktie x zu Kurs y gekauft (obwohl ich das auch schon gemacht habe). Das ist eine Null-Information für andere Board-Teilnehmer und erhöht nur das Grundrauschen. Zu diesem Thema gibt es übrigens einen schönen Beitrag im Motley Fool der bei den Top 10 aufgelistet ist.

Mit dem Chart wollte ich nur verdeutlichen welche Dynamik hinter den B2B-Unternehmen steckt, so wie das Biz in dem EMC-Thread beim Vergleich EMC/NTAP getan hat. Dadurch bin ich erst auf NTAP aufmerksam geworden, habe daraufhin selbst recherchiert und sie mir dann zu xxx Euro mit bisher xx % Gewinn ins Depot gelegt.

Daß du bei deiner SAP bleibst ist dir unbenommen.

Aber aus den Reaktionen sehe ich, daß das EX-SAC board das falsche board ist, B2B zu diskutieren. Das Thema wird bereits ausgiebig im Internet-board diskutiert, d.h. das ist mein letzter Beitrag zu dem Thema im EX-SAC board.

Grüße
Andy