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    Priceline.com Die Analyse Part II - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

    eröffnet am 09.03.00 23:22:46 von
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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 09.03.00 23:22:46
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      Hier ist eine beeindruckende Analyse die das Potenzial
      der Aktie wiederspiegelt. Bitte um eure Meinungen.
      Bin seit 3 Wochen in der Aktie investiert.





      Priceline: The Next Godzilla Roars
      http://www.individualinvestor.com

      Staff Writer: Eliot Walsh (3/9/00)

      Writing a positive piece about Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN - Quotes, News,
      Boards) can be difficult.

      With so much bullish ammunition, it’s hard to know where to begin. But the
      name-your-own-price maverick has powerful momentum: the stock is up 70%
      since our January 13 recommendation to a recent $87.56.

      Moreover, the party is just beginning.


      Like this Article?



      Never, in the almost eight quarters since the company’s public inception, has
      there been a time when Priceline.com looked stronger, more promising, or more
      profoundly vindicated than it does today. The company has effectively force-fed
      Priceline bears their words, the equivalent of a foot-long shame sandwich.

      At a PaineWebber conference Monday, CEO Richard Braddock said, “In 2000,
      Priceline could be profitable in travel alone.” He suggested “with the strongest
      possible body language” blowout financial results not only for the first quarter of
      2000, but also for the entire year.

      How can he be so sure, so soon? A year ago Priceline was selling about 5,000
      plane tickets a week. A few of the major carriers said they would never do
      business with the company. By January 2000, Priceline was selling an average of
      100,000 a week (despite a sharp Y2K-related drop in travel). Now all eight major
      carriers, representing 687,000 empty seats a day, are signed on. When American,
      United, and US Airways came aboard, Priceline’s available ticket inventory
      doubled. As a result, first quarter airline ticket sales are expected to be more than
      double fourth quarter levels

      With a giant, William Shatner-led marketing push and a 94% customer
      satisfaction rate, Priceline.com’s brand awareness among Net users ranks fourth,
      just behind Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN - Quotes, News, Boards), according
      to Robertson Stephens analyst Lauren Cooks Levitan.

      Priceless Intangibles

      Meanwhile, 35% of Priceline’s customers are repeats, and each one, according to
      Braddock, tells an average of 18 friends and family members about the service.
      Like so much of the Priceline story, such information is nowhere to be found on
      the balance sheet.

      Neither is Braddock’s statement to a packed ballroom full of analysts that the
      company is on track to exceed all of its goals for the year, including adjusted
      gross margins of 15%, up from 12% in 1999 and $1 billion in revenue from $482
      million last year. Other goals include 8 million unique customers, up from 1999’s
      3.8 million, and 4 million airline tickets sold. “We’ll beat them all in 2000,” he said.

      As its metrics rocket skyward, Priceline’s financial picture gets brighter every
      week. Year-over-year revenue is now expected to grow a bit over 100% to $1 billion
      in 2000, while the company’s gross profit should grow at a greater rate — at least
      144% -- to $141 million. That directly translates into higher margins.

      But, just as Amazon.com used its success with bookselling to launch into
      numerous other markets, Priceline isn’t going to hit the brakes just to show a profit
      today. First of all, ad spending in 2000 will more than double. Furthermore the
      company is moving rapidly to bring its patented business model to many other
      markets:

      Priceline’s new rental car service reached positive gross margins in less than a
      month. Coupled with its successful hotel and airline services, the company will
      now offer entire name-your-own-price packages. With relatively little marketing
      exposure, says PaineWebber analyst Sara Farley, the rental car business is
      achieving peak days of 600 rentals over 4000 rental days.

      The new mortgage business entails a joint venture with Alliance Capital, and
      Braddock expects it to be among the top three online mortgage providers, with a
      2000 goal of $1 billion in closed loans.

      The same goes for new cars: Braddock again aims to be in the top three. “In a
      short period of time we expect to be selling $15 million worth of new cars a
      month,” he says.

      The WebHouse Club grocery unit, still effectively just a subsidiary, now has
      200,000 customers in basically New York alone. Benefiting from a large incidence
      of repeat customers, the service has sold $100 million worth of grocery items in
      120 days. Again, that’s not on the balance sheet. Next stop in the
      clicks-and-mortar retail world: name your own price for gasoline (what timing!).

      Priceline will soon offer long distance, buoyed by partnerships with Net2Phone
      (NASDAQ: NTOP - Quotes, News, Boards), among others. They plan to target
      universities, ethnic households, and small businesses, which brings us to….

      B2B! Priceline will expand its model to match up businesses and suppliers in up
      to 13 categories (so far), including media buying, telecommunications services,
      office equipment, freight and cargo, and health care services. Keep in mind that
      the B2B sector is expected to grow from $403 billion to $7.2 trillion by 2004,
      according to Gartner Group, a research company. Says Braddock, “This will be a
      major strategic focus in the second half of 2000.” He anticipates announcing
      alliances with established B2B players in short order.

      Finally, Priceline will increasingly export its business overseas. Braddock says
      the company will initially start with travel-related product offerings, then go through
      the horizontals in accordance with market demand and joint venture opportunities.
      In Hong Kong, for example, the company will capitalize on its agreement with
      Hutchison Whampoa to focus on telecom opportunities there. International revenue
      will come from licensing fees, intellectual property, technology sales and equity
      stakes.

      Some concerns about the stock remain. Why, for example, if Priceline is so
      successful, can’t suppliers turn around and do the same thing themselves.
      Braddock responds that brands would be ill served to honor bids for their own
      products because it would undermine their pricing power. Priceline’s secret
      weapon is seller anonymity.

      Others question the ability of Priceline to move beyond its niche as a travel service
      for flexible, price-conscious consumers. But part of analysts’ renewed bullishness
      on the stock is the company’s response to this danger: entering more and more
      businesses and improving the customer experience.

      Finally, the company needs to demonstrate definitively that it can execute across
      other industries as well as it has in the travel sector, all the while maintaining first
      mover advantage. To this end, the company is aggressively cross marketing (e.g.
      advertising minivans to discount diaper buyers) and making alliances with
      competitors, as it has with Ford, Budget Rent-a-Car, Travelocity, and Preview
      Travel.

      Price Targets Raised

      Analysts believe the opportunities far outweigh the risks. In the last two days, a
      number of analysts have reviewed their estimates and upped their price targets.
      PaineWebber’s Farley reiterated her “buy-Analyst’s Best Call” rating, and raised
      her price target to $125 per share from $95.

      Robbie Stephens’ Levitan reports, “Management indicated that its 30% sequential
      revenue guidance for Q1 could be highly conservative. Given Priceline is still at an
      early stage of growth we expect the company could reinvest a portion of its gross
      profit upside into brand development and new service areas. However, we still
      anticipate that revenue upside to our estimate of $220 million (which represents
      30% sequential growth) could result in upside to our current EPS loss estimate of
      ($0.06).” She rates the stock a “Strong Buy.”

      First Union’s David Trossman upgraded the stock to “Buy,” and Prudential’s Mark
      Rowen reiterated his “Strong Buy”, upping the price target to $100 from $80.

      And Wednesday afternoon, U.S. Piper Jaffray Vice President and Senior
      e-Consumer analyst Greg Konezny announced, “Given our thesis that
      Priceline.com has reached an inflection point in their business model, we are
      raising out price target to $150 from $90, based on an increase in long-term free
      cash flow generation potential.”

      In an upcoming TV ad for Priceline, spokesman William Shatner violently bashes a
      guitar against the floor of a club stage before declaring breathily, “If saving money
      is wrong…I don’t wanna be right.” Given that the stock has pulled back from its
      recent highs in the $90s, we couldn’t agree with him more.

      Bottom Line:

      The bullish case for Priceline.com continues to build in strength and
      clarity. The foot-long shame sandwich that is currently jammed in the
      throats of the Priceline bears will only steal more oxygen from those
      reckless enough to bet against the stock.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 10.03.00 14:27:50
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      Ich möchte noch einmal an Priceline.com WKN 919819 Call 928834
      erinnern.Wer Heute noch einsteigt hat gute Aussichten auf einen guten
      Gewinn.
      MFG
      Onkel Sam
      Avatar
      schrieb am 14.03.00 00:25:41
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Hallo Onkel Sam
      Meine Meinung kennst Du: Es geht weiter steil aufwärts. Der Kurs hat
      erst angefangen zu laufen. Viele, viele Fakten sprechen für eine
      erstklassige Performance.
      Wir können erstmal anstoßen, wenn wir die 100$-Marke knacken, dann
      dürfte ein weiterer Schub kommen. Aber egal, wie der kurzfristige
      Verlauf ist(Man weiß ja nie). Langfristig werden wir noch ganz andere
      Kurse genießen können.
      Gruß
      ibergen
      Avatar
      schrieb am 14.03.00 11:15:50
      Beitrag Nr. 4 ()
      Hi to all

      Bin schon seit längerer Zeit in plcn investiert und habe dabei auch dabei mitgelitten (siehe Chart)

      Kurser werden in nächster Zeit sicherlich noch steigen.

      KZ zwischen $125 und $150 wurden in der vergangenen Woche genannt

      Übrigens: pcln stieg gestern after the bell auf $97,5 -> sollte für heute Nacht ein gutes Ohmen sein.

      good luck to everybody
      Avatar
      schrieb am 20.03.00 03:16:28
      Beitrag Nr. 5 ()
      Priceline bietet in USA seit kurzem einen, für mich jedenfalls, neuen Service an:

      Lebensmittel und sonstige Waren die es im Supermarkt gibt. Dabei ist vor allem Meijer zu erwähnen, eine große Supermarktkette, deren riesige Läden 24h geöffnet haben.

      Zur Zeit werden die Priceline.com Karten in den Meijer Läden verteilt, d.h die Popularität von priceline wird mit Sicherheit noch mehr steigen.

      Das System funktioniert folgendermaßen:

      Man bennent den Preis für die gewünschten Produkte, bezahlt via Kreditkarte und druckt den bestätigten "Kaufbeleg" aus.
      Mit diesem Ausdruck geht man in den nächsten Meijer Laden, nimmt die Sachen aus dem Regal, geht an die Kasse und zeigt den Ausdruck.

      Mittels einer Nummer kann Meijer überprüfen, für wen die Waren bestellt sind und ob die Waren schon mal abgeholt wurden.

      Ist alles ok, nimmt man die Sachen mit nach Hause.

      Das System ist z.Zt. in aller Munde, vor allem die Hausfrauen sind ganz aufgebracht und versuchen sich gegensitig mit Preisen zu unterbieten.

      Die Sache sieht echt gut aus, und ich werde mir am Montag ein paar Aktien ins Depot legen.

      AEG

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 20.03.00 16:41:21
      Beitrag Nr. 6 ()
      du solltest dir den aktuellen barrons artikel besorgen.
      sorry

      sollten auch noch die patentstreitigkeiten verloren gehen, dann
      wirst du deine aktien im nirvana besuchen können.

      gruß tradehard

      p.s. schau dir mal das insider- buying - sorry selling an.
      das management teilt wohl nicht ganz deine meinung.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 20.03.00 19:16:15
      Beitrag Nr. 7 ()
      Barrons????

      Sind dies nicht diejenigen, die gerne von sich selbst als Analysten träumen, aber in Wirklichkeit genausoviel Ahnung von dem Geschäft haben, wie ein 30jähriger Dorftrottel, der zum ersten Mal in die Stadt geht????:):):)

      Gruss Asienfreund, der überhaupt nichts von diesem sich krampfhaft Anerkennung suchenden Blatt hält
      Avatar
      schrieb am 21.03.00 19:58:10
      Beitrag Nr. 8 ()
      Ich habe diese Aktie zu 80 vor ca 20 Tagen gekauft.
      Doch was passiert jetzt damit?
      Soll ich verkaufen?
      Gibts NEWS?

      Danke für euren Rat.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 21.03.00 20:12:52
      Beitrag Nr. 9 ()
      Hi pepi_one,

      auf alle Fälle zwei mal die Neuaufnahme der Bewertung:

      Pacific Crest at Buy

      Wit SoundView at Strong Buy

      Ich habe die Aktie seit August `99 (bei 110 EUR gekauft). Was soll ich sagen, die Analysten sagen die Aktie sollte steigen, die Verkäufe der Insider sprechen dagegen. Warten wir es ab.

      Was von Analystenkommentaren zu halten ist, wissen wir ja alle!!

      Gruß thüringer
      Avatar
      schrieb am 22.03.00 06:31:04
      Beitrag Nr. 10 ()
      Danke für Deine Antwort, werde abwarten.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.03.00 20:26:29
      Beitrag Nr. 11 ()
      "Capital" hat ja auch so ein Faible für Priceline. Letztes Jahr empfohlen, stand Sie dieses Jahr nun schon zum 2. Mal drin. Kaufen soll man nach diesem Artikel bei Kursen um 100 $. Langfristig sollte sich Priceline aufgrund der Ausweitung des Angebotes (wie zuletzt auf Benzin) sehr positiv entwickeln. Schaun` mer mal.

      Gruß thüringer
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.03.00 22:56:09
      Beitrag Nr. 12 ()
      Morgan starts Net index; Munder NetNet closes

      By Jon Friedman, CBS MarketWatch
      Last Update: 2:25 PM ET Mar 24, 2000
      NewsWatch


      NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, attempting to
      capitalize on investors` fascination with Internet stocks, said Friday it`s
      introducing the Morgan Stanley Internet Index.

      Also on Friday, Birmingham, Mich.-based Munder Capital Management
      said it will be closing the Munder NetNet Fund to new investors on April
      17.

      The new Morgan (MWD: news, msgs) investment
      vehicle will invest assets only in U.S. public
      companies involved in Internet businesses.

      At the outset, the fund will invest in 28 Internet
      stocks taken from nine Internet sectors.

      "The MOX is designed to act as a tool for creating
      a liquid institutional trading, hedging and investment
      vehicle," said Mary Meeker, a Morgan managing
      director.

      Internet funds are risky propositions for many
      average investors. "No question these kinds of
      funds are more volatile than the `average Joe`
      funds," said Darren Chervitz, senior analyst at the
      Jacob Internet Fund in New York. "That`s because
      the funds reflect the underlying Internet stocks."

      The Morgan Stanley fund consists of the following
      stocks in various subcategories:

      Internet infrastructure services
      Covad (COVD: news, msgs), Exodus (EXDS:
      news, msgs), InterNap (INAP: news, msgs), MCI WorldCom (WCOM:
      news, msgs)

      Internet infrastructure
      Cisco Systems (CSCO: news, msgs), Inktomi (INKT: news, msgs), Sun
      Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs), VeriSign (VRSN: news, msgs)

      Internet consulting services:

      Doubleclick (DCLK: news, msgs), Scient (SCNT: news, msgs)

      Internet portals
      America Online (AOL: news, msgs), ExciteAtHome (ATHM: news,
      msgs), Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs), Yahoo (YHOO: news, msgs)

      Internet vertical portals
      Charles Schwab (SCH: news, msgs), CNet (CNET: news, msgs),
      Healtheon/WebMD (HLTH: news, msgs), Intuit (INTU: news, msgs)

      Internet commerce
      Amazon.com (AMZN: news, msgs), EBay (EBAY: news, msgs),
      Priceline.com (PCLN: news, msgs)

      Internet/B2B software
      Ariba (ARBA: news, msgs), Oracle (ORCL: news, msgs), Vignette
      (VIGN: news, msgs)

      B2B commerce:
      Ventro (VNTR: news, msgs), VerticalNet (VERT: news, msgs)

      Multi-Sector Internet Companies:

      CMGi (CMGI: news, msgs), Internet Capital Group (ICGE: news, msgs)


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      Priceline.com Die Analyse Part II