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Ten Indian companies for 2007Commentary: From construction to technology, a list of plays

Editor's note: This is an update to correct a typographical error and to clarify Cognizant's latest revenue gains. Jay Somaney is a partner and fund manager with TSG Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in Plano, Texas. He is also editor of GlobalTechStocks.com, a financial Web site produced by traders and fund managers in the U.S. and India.

PLANO, Texas (MarketWatch) -- With 2006 now behind us and 2007 looming ahead, my thoughts are on what will happen in 2007 in terms of market performance.
There are many diverse opinions out there regarding 2007 given the strong performance we have seen from the indices in 2006. Albeit, most hedge fund managers and mutual fund managers have underperformed the indices in 2006.
My take is that 2007 returns or the lack thereof will depend on the following factors:
1. When the Fed starts cutting rates. Should they decide to raise rates instead, if inflation picks up, the markets will take a pounding.
2. Another terrorist attack on our soil will also create a panic sell-off.3. Whether corporate earnings start to slow down as a result of the Fed's rate hike campaign.
4. A crisis in emerging markets leading to a global market melt-down.
5. Slowing GDP growth in the so-called BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. ( I do not see that happening for at least a few years)

However, whatever happens with returns in U.S. markets, there are names in India that are poised to deliver stellar returns in 2007.
Some trade here on U.S. exchanges. Some trade on the European bourses and of course, all trade in India as well. So without further ado, here is My Top Ten List of Indian companies in alphabetical order to own in 2007.

Bharti Airtel & Reliance Communications

These two stocks trade in India only. Both companies are neck to neck in terms of subscribers in India with Bharti holding a slight lead compared to Reliance with a subscriber count of 30.3 million and 28.6 million respectively at November month-end. Both companies are adding about 1.5 million subscribers every month. Analysts are estimating that India will have about 165 million wireless subscribers by March 2007 and around 235 million by March 2008.
Market share for Bharti is 22.3% at the moment and at 21% for Reliance Comm. The shares of these two companies are increasing every month by about 15 basis points. So using that measure, Bharti will have about 57 million subscribers by March 2008 and Reliance will have about 54 million. In comparison, Sprint Nextel has a market capitalization of $56 billion and had 52 million subscribers at the end of September. Sprint added just 233,000 net customers in the quarter. Market cap for Bharti is about $25 billion at present and Reliance is valued at $19 billion. So think about where these companies will be valued in March 2008 using Sprint as a comparison, current growth rates completely withstanding


ICICI Bank trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol IBN (IBN :
icici bk ltd adrand also in India as well. I have talked about IBN in a prior article. See earlier column.
I will not bore repeat all the details. However, I will offer this thought: EPS expectations going forward are for $1.54/share for FY ending March 2007 to $2.04/share for FY March 2008 to $2.48/share for FY March 2009. That is a nice rate of growth, no?
Hindustan Construction and Nagarjuna Construction.
Hindustan Construction is expected to grow its earnings from INR 3.60/share in for FY March 2007 to INR 5.5 in FY March 2008 to INR 10.1 in FY 2009. Price-to-earnings ratios at present are 39x for FY 2007, 27x for FY 2008 and a mere 14x for FY 2009.
Nagarjuna Construction is expected to grow earnings from INR 8.9/share in FY March 2007 to INR 13.9/share for FY March 2008. Price-to-earnings ratios at current valuations are 19.7x for FY 2007 and 12.6x for FY 2008. The company's revenues are growing and are forecast to grow in excess of 60%. Enough said?

Both these companies trade in Europe and India.

Larsen & Toubro

The one Indian infrastructure company that is a "must own" is Larsen & Toubro (LTOD) . L&T is one of India's largest infrastructure development companies and at present has an order back-log of almost $8 billion. The company's market cap is currently $9 billion and earnings estimates call for earnings of INR 54 in FY 2007, INR 66 in FY 2008 and INR 80 in FY 2009. L&T trades in Europe and in India as well.

Unitech and DLF Construction

The two Indian housing plays that I like a lot are DLF Construction and Unitech. Unitech (UK:UCP: news, chart, profile) trades in London and in India and DLF is slated to come public in the first quarter of 2007.
Unitech is one of Indian largest home builders and is currently valued at $8.7 billion. Unitech also is one of India's largest land banks with holding of over 14,000 acres in prime areas like Calcutta, Chennai, Delhi, and the National Capital Region. If DLF comes public successfully, look for a nice bump up in the valuation for Unitech. DLF is expected to be a highly successful and much anticipated IPO.

Cognizant and Infosys

Once again, Cognizant and Infosys do not need any introduction as I have talked about these companies in a couple of previous columns. Cognizant (CTSH )is not really an Indian company but a quasi-Indian company due to the fact that a majority of its employees are in India. Cognizant trades in the U.S. alone on the Nasdaq exchange. Infosys (INFY ) trades in the U.S., Europe and India. Cognizant is growing its revenues rapidly -- in November it reported a 60% gain in third-quarter revenue and projected full-year revenue would be $1.4 billion, up 59% -- while Infosys is growing its revenues in the 30% range, albeit off a larger base. Earnings are also keeping pace with revenue growth for each of these companies. Cognizant is valued at just under $11 billion while Infosys has a valuation of just over $30 billion.

So, no matter what happens in 2007, I expect these 10 companies to provide stellar returns next year. For the record, I think we will have another good year in 2007.
NVIDIA - Scharfer Rücksetzer, dann...

NVIDIA (NVDA / ISIN: US67066G1040) : 33,88 $ (-5,65%)

Aktueller Wochenchart (log) seit Februar 2004 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche)

Kurz-Kommentierung: Unter Druck gerät mit dem heute schwachen Halbleitersektor auch die Aktie von Nvidia. Der Kursverlauf konnte nach einem Zwischentief bei 17,17 $ in den vergangenen Monaten wieder stark ansteigen und über 31,88 $ auf ein neues Hoch ausbrechen. Nach einem Hoch bei 36,86 $ kommt es jetzt zu einem Rückfall in den Bereich des gebrochenen Widerstands. Bereits bei 31,88-30,63 $ bietet sich die Möglichkeit einer Wiederaufnahme der Rallye in Richtung 42,00 $. Kippt Nvidia allerdings auf Wochenschlussbasis unter 30,63 $ ab, ist von einer Ausdehnung der Korrektur bis in den Bereich 25,50 $ auszugehen.

TM Toyota Motor

Bei 125 USD bin ich dabei. bin mir allerdings gar nicht sicher, ob er mir den gefallen tut.


CHINA Cdc Corp

Auf diesem niveau kann man m.E. immer noch einsteigen, aber ich warte evtl. noch ein wenig.


AUY Yamana Gold

Bei 10 USD (od. knapp drüber) wird man wieder einsteigen können.

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.680.661 von kep am 04.01.07 20:38:41SINA möglicherweise ein signifikanter Ausbruch

mir fiel das auch auf, und meine Antwort ist JA
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.746.634 von kep am 07.01.07 15:03:58TOYOTA MOTOR und VOLKSWAGEN

die letztere ist direkt vor unserer Haustüre und noch besser gelaufen

wobei die Japaner in der Tat gut dastehen ...

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