Canadian Solar - wo geht die Reise hin? (Seite 139)

[dicki31785]

so ich habe weiter dazu gekauft...muss sagen das ich jetzt strapped for cash bin....habe sehr viel reingehauen...bei tiefen 27er kursen...gott steh mir bei bei den kampf gegen die shortiesmfg CW

[dicki31785]

So erstmal muss ich sagen das errinert mich ein bisschen an TSL(da bin uach long) die letzten Q ergebnisse waren gut...und trotzdem abgestraft wei keiner sich die arbeit macht ein bisschen tiefer zu graben....erschreckender weise...Der grosse unterschied zwischen TSL und CSIQ ist aber die offenheit des mangements bei den CC und den klaren plan die sie verfolgen....ein super confernce call nach meinem empfinden...also zu den fakten....

UMG production with the first batch achieved a gross margin of 16%....in the next batch this will be expanded to 20-25%.....UMG suppliers are meeting all their targets.....SI panels are sold for about 4$ and UMG a bit below....UMG first time customers in 2008 were given a discount of 15%....so they get a head start but that head start will be paid back in 2009 by a much more stable ASP enviorment concerning UMG panels....The guidance for 2008 was reitarted as very conservative....Due to unknowns such as currency effects....R&D etc....In anderen worten die Guidance wird hoechstwarscheinlich nochmal erhoeht....

Sales team started selling for 2009....We target to overbook sales contracts....(Zwischen den zeilen also sie werden naechstes jahr ordentlich verkaufen...praktisch mehr als 100% guided capacity wird verkauft bzw contracted)..."The target to overbook can be easily achieved by our sales team"....So far we have fairly easily reached consensus without any muc negotiation for 2009 and planning an ASP declind of LESS than 10%.....With at least one quarter fixed....also wenn sie jetzt vertrage unterschreiben fuers Q1 gibt es kein variable teil des contracts sie verkaufen die panels und egal wie ASP's aussehen in Q1 wird sich der geplante ASP nicht veraendern....Dazu wurde auch noch gesagt some contracts have fixed prices also for the WHOLE first half of the year and some (in process) could agree to whole year fixed prices....aber natuerlich sind auch contracts dabei die auch variable sind...aber wenn sich zum vergleich den ESLR CC ranzieht....wenn da ein ASP decline von ueber 10-12% passiert muessen die neu verhandeln aber wir nicht....(groessenteils)

Frage von Lazard capital...Is their a reason why Margins shouldn't expand in 2009 becuase if one does the math they should expand?!?Antwort: As you know CSIQ plans conservatively leaving ENOUGH ROOM FOR UPSIDE TO THE INVESTORS.....In anderen worten ja wir werden eine bessere marge erzielen aber wollen konservativ bleiben....

UMG can provide a great upside(comparative advantage) in the next two-three years...after that if plenty of silicon comes online we can convert back to SI panels very easily with the UMG technology....Also zwei bis drei jahre wird UMG ein grosser vorteil sein dann wird entweer auf eine ganz neue technologie umgebaut...oder es werden SI panels gebaut....aber das umruesten von UMG zu SI soll nicht gerade kompliziert sein....

CSIQ has one of the best balance sheets in the solar industry and has all of its capital expenditures covered for 2008...new capex plans for 2009 are in work....diese vier punkte erschienen mir am wichtigsten die frage ist ob ich heute dazu kaufen wie ueberschwenglic auch die anlysten angehoert haben im CC(wenn man mal mit anderen CC's vergleicht) werden sie warscheinlich die targets raisen..ausser vielleicht shah von lehmann bros.Und wenn man mal den one time charge rausnimmt fuer csiq mein gott...dann waren es mehr als super ergebnisse...aber zumindest wissen wir das solche charges nicht auf uns zukommen...also wuerde ich eher tippen(und dies auch konservativ) .61+.36.+61+.70 naja wenn wir wieder auf den 200 SMA treffen wird einfach weiter eingekauft...der outlook ist super und das bisschen was sie zu 2009 berichtet haben hat sich alles andere als negativ angehoert...

[Maverick22]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.718.066 von dicki31785 am 13.08.08 14:47:55

okay!

[dicki31785]

der CC ist bis jetzt mehr als eine eins plus...berichte gleich ausfuehrlich...mfg CW

[Maverick22]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.717.921 von dicki31785 am 13.08.08 14:32:31

jep und dieser Einmaleffekt wird gnadenlos als Verkaufsgrund benutzt!

0,61 + 0,36 = 0,97 (für 1. Halbjahr)

Wenn jetzt alles normal verläuft bis Jahresende, kommen konservativ 1,60 für das zweite Halbjahr dazu, dann sind wir bei $ 2,57 Nettoeinnahmen!

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.717.637 von Maverick22 am 13.08.08 14:05:55

one time charge of 10.XX million for the conv. bond.....also da ist schon mal ein grund warum net income nur $.36 verdient wurde, on gaap basis mfg CW

[Maverick22]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.717.427 von dicki31785 am 13.08.08 13:48:21

jep - interessiert keinen - wird höchtswahrscheinlich einen abverkauf geben....

[dicki31785]

Without special items CSIQ earned .78 cent vs .47 consensus(waurm davor da .70 stand frag ich mich aber gut um so besser)....aber pre market wurden die zahlen nicht so positiv aufgenommen...obwohl revenue guidance schon wieder erhoeht worden ist....naja schaun wir mal was der CC so bringt....mfg CW

[Wandenfels2]

Canadian Solar Reports Second Quarter 2008 Results


2008-08-13 07:00 ET - News Release


TORONTO, Aug. 13 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. ("the Company'', ''CSI'' or ''we'') today reported its preliminary unaudited US GAAP financial information for the second quarter ended June 30, 2008.

Net revenues for the quarter were $212.6 million (including $5.1 million of silicon material sales), compared to net revenues of $60.4 million for the second quarter of 2007 (including $2.7 million of silicon material sales) and $171.2 million for the first quarter of 2008 (including $2.2 million of silicon material sales). Net income for the quarter was $10.5 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $2.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2007 and net income of $19.0 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2008. Excluding share- based compensation expenses of $2.3 million and a one-time non-cash debt conversion charge of $10.2 million, non-GAAP net income for the quarter is $23.0 million, or $0.78 per diluted share.

Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO of CSI, commented: ''It has been a very solid and eventful quarter for the Company, with progress on all fronts. This marks our fifth consecutive quarter of sequential quarter-to-quarter top line growth. During this period we have also improved our margins. We have also successfully advanced our capital projects, both for the ingot and wafer plant, and the Phase II solar cell facility, and we expect significant increases in our H2 of 2008 deliveries compared with H1 of 2008. Further vertical integration on the ingot and wafer side is now well in progress with the Company having produced its first wafers on August 2nd. This will provide additional efficiencies in manufacturing the e-Module products and allow us to employ proprietary methods and patented technologies in the production of UMG ingots and wafers. During the quarter, we have seen our average conversion efficiency for UMG cells improve from approximately 13.3% to approximately 13.7%, and we expect further improvements going forward. On the supply side, we have entered into two new long-term contracts with LDK and New Solar Power, which will improve our supply situation in 2009.''

Shawn Qu added, ''In June, we successfully completed the early conversion of our convertible notes due 2017. We successfully closed a secondary share offering in July with approximately $112.7 million of net proceeds. As a result, we believe that we now have one of the strongest balance sheets in the solar industry.''

Arthur Chien, CFO of CSI, noted: ''Revenues for Q2 were $212.6 million, which is more than 10% above our prior guidance of $185 - $190 million, while our gross margin of 15.8% (excluding silicon material sales) remained above our target gross margin range of 13% - 15%. Our GAAP income per diluted share included a one-time non-cash charge of $10.2 million associated with the early conversion of our convertible notes, which will help CSI save future interest payments. Our non-GAAP income per diluted share of $0.78 demonstrates our ability to continuously deliver strong operating results and returns to our shareholders. Our successful secondary offering in July has positioned us in a stronger foothold that would empower us to carry on in our path of rapid growth well into 2009 with elevated financial flexibility. Our cash position is now excellent as well as our financial ratios. We have adequate resources for all of our planned H2 2008 capital expenditures and working capital purposes. Looking ahead, we expect our margins to remain steady and within our target range. I am confident that our quarterly revenue will continue to grow in the second half of 2008.''



Revenue by Geographical Location (US $ millions)

Q2-08 Q1-08 Q2-07
Region Revenue % Revenue % Revenue %
Europe 188.3 88.6% 167.6 97.9% 57.3 94.8%
Asia 13.1 6.2% 2.4 1.4% 3.0 4.9%
America 11.2 5.2% 1.2 0.7% 0.1 0.3%
Total Net 212.6 100% 171.2 100% 60.4 100%
Revenue

Note: Asian revenue included $5.1 million of silicon material sales in Q2-
08 and $2.2 million of silicon material sales in Q1-08.

Recent Developments and Management Update
-- Launched commercial sales of e-Modules at Intersolar in Munich and San
Francisco, for both the European and the US markets
-- Signed five new sales contracts in June and diversified our markets to
include Italy, the Czech Republic, North America and Asia, while
maintaining strong sales into our traditional markets of Germany and
Spain
-- Signed significant supply deals with LDK and New Solar Power, thereby
increasing our supply visibility for 2009 to 70%
-- The Board of Directors appointed the following senior executives:
-- Gregory Spanoudakis has been appointed as President, European
Operations. Mr. Spanoudakis was previously our Vice President of
European Sales
-- Charlotte Xi Klein has been appointed as Vice President, Finance &
Compliance. Ms. Klein was previously our Financial Controller

Outlook

For the rest of the year and for 2009, we are maintaining our positive outlook for growth in both net revenues and MW shipments. We are increasing our 2008 revenue guidance to $850 - $970 million from the previously guided $750 - $870 million. Based on current sales and supply agreements and market forecasts, we reiterate our 2009 shipment target of 500 - 550MW. The 2009 target includes about 400 MW of regular solar modules and 100 - 150 MW of e- Modules.

The Company is now signing sales contracts for delivery in 2009. We launched our e-Module products in Q208 and are now selling our 2009 capacity for these products. We have seen strong demand and firm interest for our products, with nearly all of our key long-term customers doubling their product requests in 2009.

Our capacity and supply ramp-ups have positioned us well to increase our deliveries of products in 2009. The company now has two differentiated product lines (regular and e-Modules) that it can sell into different pricing tiers. Geographically, we are now selling to eight different regions including Germany, Spain, Italy, the Czech Republic, the US, Canada, South Korea and China. This market and product diversification will give us less exposure to changes in any individual market segment such as Spain, where we have reduced our exposure, and gives us access to certain strategic price sensitive markets, especially the US.

Net revenues for Q308 are expected to be in the range of $245 - $255 million, with non-GAAP net income, determined by excluding share-based compensation expenses, expected to be in the range of $24 - $25 million. Shipments for Q308 are expected to be approximately 60 MW.

Investor Conference Call / Webcast Details

A conference call has been scheduled for 8:00 PM. on Wednesday, August 13, 2008, Beijing time or 8:00 AM, EDT on Wednesday, August 13, 2008 in New York. During the call, time will be set-aside for analysts and interested investors to ask questions of senior executive officers of the Company.

The call may be accessed by dialing: [phone] (domestic) or [phone] (international). The passcode is 55405119. A live webcast of the conference call will be available on Canadian Solar's website at http://www.csisolar.com . A replay of the call will be available starting one hour after the call and continuing until 10:00 p.m. on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 (Beijing time) or 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 (Eastern Daylight Time) at http://www.csisolar.com and by telephone at [phone] (domestic) or [phone] (international). The passcode to access the replay is: 61245887.

[dicki31785]

Naja bei reuters ist consensus fuers Q2 $.70 EPS....also liegt die latte nicht unbedingt niedrig dieses Q....schaun wir mal was passiert mfg CW