Washington Mutual - Grösste Sparkasse der USA! Chancen & Risiken. (Seite 34360)

[LARUI]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.571.905 von humm am 23.07.08 18:23:38

Hallo Zusammen!

Seid ihr denn alle trader?

Es geht schon wieder Richtung Norden.

[humm]

so, bin mit Verlust draußen. War nix mit WM, vielleicht später mal wieder.

[scrooge45]

hallo humm

Macht Sinn, es geht aufwärts

[humm]

habe gerade dazu gekauft...

[wgumcd]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.567.020 von humm am 23.07.08 10:20:10

wir sind mal wieder einer meinung!

ich bin eigentlich ganz zufrieden wie es läuft, außerdem...

When there's blood on the streets, buy property!


Gruß

[humm]

aus: ,http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/200…

[humm]

Man kann Analysen zwar lesen, Kaufentscheidungen werde ich aber nicht wegen Analysen treffen. Sie versuchen oft uns in der Gegenrichtung zu manipulieren. Es gibt genug Analysen die in sich widersprüchlich sind! Also Vorsicht mit Analysen!

Heute werde ich den Ablauf mir anschauen und entscheiden was ich mache. Der Kurs könnte, wie der von Wachovia, 27% nach oben gehen, nach dem er am Anfang kräftig nachgegeben hat. So sind die Amis eben.

[wgumcd]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.566.410 von humm am 23.07.08 09:11:51

ich suche gerade nach artikeln, hier schon mal zwei

23.07.2008 08:07
Washington Mutual under review for downgrade - Moody's

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Moody's Investors Service said it placed the ratings of Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc. (News) and Washington Mutual Bank under review for downgrade following Washington Mutual's reported $3.3 billion loss for the second quarter of 2008.

Moody's said the company's financial flexibility has been reduced because of the significant decline in its market value and a decline in balances of certain deposit categories in the second quarter of 2008.

Moody's said that though the financial flexibility has declined liquidity has stayed sufficient through difficult market conditions.

Moody's noted that the company has announced initiatives to cut the size of its balance sheet and achieve annualised cost savings of $1 billion and if the initiatives are successfully executed they would represent positive developments for its credit profile.

Moody's said that during its review it will assess the effect of the company's recent and expected operating performance on its financial flexibility as well as its capital adequacy and contingency funding plans.
[e-mail]


Market Scan
More Pain May Lie Ahead For WaMu
Miriam Marcus, 07.22.08, 8:41 PM ET

Washington Mutual is optimistic about its ability to weather the mortgage crisis, but some analysts warn it may be a bit too optimistic.

After the close Tuesday, Washington Mutual reported a steep profit loss in the second quarter, far worse than had been expected, as it significantly increased its loan loss reserves in response to continued declines in housing prices nationwide.

Bracing themselves for bad news, investors pushed the ailing stock up 6.2%, or 34 cents, to close at $5.82. Earlier in the day, Wachovia posted a gaping $8.9 billion quarterly loss, also largely due to pain related to soured mortgages. Still, riding an industrywide rally, Wachovia shares soared 27.4%, or $3.61, to close at $16.79.

Both firms' share prices have been sliding since autumn, when Wachovia traded above $50 and WaMu traded near $40.

Despite its widening loss, WaMu Chief Executive Kerry K. Killinger insisted "we remain confident that we have sufficient capital to successfully manage our way through this challenging period." Killinger's assurance came after the firm's previous announcement that it would exit the wholesale lending business and close all remaining standalone home loan centers. WaMu said it will instead focus its mortgage-originating efforts in its retail bank branches and Web site, and by expanding its call center operations.

Lehman Brothers analyst Bruce Harting said he expected the bank to remain unprofitable until credit costs normalize some time in the second half of 2009. "The combination of revenue growth, loan-loss reserves already established and new capital should be sufficient to cover the losses that Washington Mutual will need to absorb in the next several years," he said.

WaMu became one of the first retail banks to seek outside cash in the wake of the credit crisis when it agreed to sell equity securities to an investment fund managed by TPG Capital and to other investors this spring.

Harting said he expected WaMu would need to add "substantially" to its loan loss reserves in the second quarter, and the remainder of the year, as home prices and mortgage credit show no signs of stabilizing, he noted. He said he expected the bank to set aside as much as $4.0 billion in the quarter to cover bad loans, with charge-offs rising to $1.8 billion. Harting projected a loss of $1.48 per share.

WaMu reported setting aside an additional $3.7 billion in loan loss reserves in the quarter to $8.5 billion. The quarter's provision was $5.9 billion, compared with $2.2 billion of net charge-offs.

"Past assumptions regarding losses have, in hindsight, proven to be a bit optimistic, and there is no guarantee that current assumptions will not require further downward adjustments," said Walter O'Haire, senior analyst with Boston-based research firm Celent.

"As is the case with its peers, the bank listed a litany of risk factors and market factors that could adversely impact business. However, Washington Mutual understands the need to focus on moving forward and growing its business. Reserves are up and the bank is aggressively monitoring expenses, targeting $1 billion in pre-tax cost savings," he added.

The Seattle-based bank reported a net loss of $3.3 billion, or $6.58 loss per share, compared with profits of $830.0 million, or 92 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected WaMu to post a net loss of $1.5 million, or $1.05 loss per share.

Earlier this month, Edward Jones analyst Tom Kersting downgraded WaMu shares to "Sell" from "Hold," based on his concern over the bank's capital position and its ability to raise capital in the future.

"It is likely that WaMu will need to raise additional capital to bolster its financial position due to increasing losses in its loan portfolio," Kersting wrote. "We are concerned about what it will take and how long it may take to improve the performance of the mortgage business, and we believe further near-term disappointments are possible."

Management has said it expects potential mortgage-related losses of $12.0 billion to $19.0 billion over the next three to four years, but Kersting believes this number could be higher given the company's focus on mortgages and geographic concentrations in higher-risk markets.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.

[humm]

hier zwei, meines Erachtens gute Beiträge aus dem AmiForum, die die Lage beschreiben:

Expected provisions: $3.5B
Actual provisions: $5.9B
============================
Difference: +$2.4B
============================

Expected Loss: $1.2B
Actual Loss: $3.3B
============================
Difference: +$2.1B
============================

So after accounting for increased provisions, WM actually beat consensus by $300 million

Additional positives from the earnings report were--

2nd Positive: They re-iterated their maximum loss guidelines (this was source of some speculation), and thus will be looked at positively.

3rd Positive: The pre-provision, pre charge off (Core earnings) grew from last quarter indicating that the core bank is functioning well.

4th positive: The bank is aggressively cutting costs. Reduced expenses will save $1Billion per year going forward

5th positive: WM has plenty of capital to withstand their maximum expected losses and then some more…and still have some left over. This puts to rest the possibility of further dilution and should bode positive for the equity.

6th: WM has plenty of excess liquidity (more than $40B). In the conference call someone mentioned that they actually paid down the FHLB advances (that’s incredible in this environment)

7th: The rate of growth of troubled loans is slowing down. Though it does not mean everything is rosy, it indicates that the worst might be over. There seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.

8th: The loss estimates of WM are clearly much higher than other banks. I doubt there is a scenario where they will blow past their estimate of $19B losses.
In their projections they are expecting 100% losses on 2nd liens (which I agree with). This is substantially higher than what Wells is expecting, even though they operate in pretty much the same markets, have much larger 2nd lien portfolio. At this time FICO scores are pretty much irrelevant as Prime is looking equally horrible (Jamie Dimon’s words).

Loss estimates for Prime 1st lien are 50%!!!. Yes I said Prime 1st lien (where original LTV is about 80%) They come to this conclusion after factoring in a further 30% decline in Case Schiller index. Basically what WM is saying is that they are prepared for a scenario where a house bought for 500K with a loan of 400K will decrease to (50% of 400K) = $200K. I know the market is bad but it ain’t that bad.

Based on the above points I don’t expect WM to take a hit tomorrow. The BK discount should be firmly taken out of the stock now.

I don’t know whether the stock price will hit 5, 6 or 7, but we can safely call 3.2 the bottom for WM.

Please share your thoughts and do point out parts that you disagree with. Please no BS comments.

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Your post makes some good points But there is a counter on some points.

First their additional loan loss provision is for a reason. Each loan is analyzed to arrive at a figure. It takes a year to finish a foreclosure and the house is nonaccrual during that period=6% loss. Then you have legal, insurance,taxes,realestate commissions and repairs and maintenance which are substantial. This all averages out to 20% of a middleclass home . Combine this with the 30% house decline and you get the loss severity ratio of 50% which WM is using. This is the same loss severity ration used by some other banks. That is 50% on prime and 100% on seconds and HELOCS.

Yes the interest margin rate improved as did the net interest income. But there was a big drop in the Fee/other income of about 1 bill dollars. This is big and if on going would severly impact WM earning power. Basically WM net interest income balances out their expenses, so WM profit is the fee/other income. They lost on asset sales, trading, syndication and other fees.WM must reduce expenses which total over 8 bill a year to offset this loss of earning power.

Their retail banks are performing well and this is a plus. But they have lost/closed all their mortgage stores and accept no referrals from mortgage brokers. Once again, a loss of earning power going forward. This earning power going forward is critical to the company recover and stock price.

The true number of shares out are close to 2 bill. Since the converts are out of the money at 8.75 a share, WM showed fewer shares. If WM only earns 500mill a quarter-forgetting the loan loss provision- this means 2 bill a year before taxes or $1/share using 2 bill shares.No wonder they are reducing expenses. They had a efficiency ratio in the 80% area. They need to get their efficiency ratio near 50% like other good banks so some of the net interest income can fall to bottom line instead of being eaten up in expenses.

They said their losses would be close to 19 bill in home lending. Think about that. These losses are charge offs- real losses not provisions. At a 50% severity ratio, this means that the default on the loans = 38bill. They have only 16 bill of subprime loans about. Their whole mortgage book is about 200bill. This means their default /delinqency is 20% or so. Check their 60 day, 90 day and NPA progression. Add up the delinquency rates and you get this number as their is 100% rollover.

I like WM. I guess they will survive. But what are they work. Maybe 10 dollars a share in 2010.
JMHO.
Rick

[wgumcd]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.565.550 von humm am 22.07.08 23:32:49

mein internet hat gester nicht funktioniert, der tag fängt ja gut an

Das die Verluste die Analystenschätzungen in dem Maße verfehlen hätte ich nicht gedacht!

So genug geheult, hat jemand einen Strategievorschlag?

Gruß