Palatin Technology / voraussichtliches Marktpotential von 1,3 Mrd $ bis 2020 allein in USA (Seite 318)

[nvidia]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.127.785 von apano am 02.11.18 21:20:05

Also, wenn du schreibst es gibt einen
Schwarzmarkt dann sage ich dir, wenn
du solch einen Blödsinn glaubst bist du
irgentwie falsch beim Investieren in Aktien.
Wie Goldlocke sagt Fake News!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Das schlimme daran ist ,das dann irgendwie
Im Netz eine Parallele zwischen einem
"Schwarzmarkt" und Palatin hergestellt wird.
Wenn du dich ,was du todsicher nicht gemacht hast,
mit diesen Firmen und Palatin beschäftigst und
auch schriftlich !!!!!!!!!!!!Kontakt aufnimmst,
wirst du den Begriff Schwarzmarkt nie wieder
in den Mund nehmen. Du solltest wissen ,oder auch nicht,
das nirgendwo so viele ,absichtliche, Falschmeldungen
verbreitet werden wie z.b.hier oder auch anderen
Foren. Diese werden dann benutzt z.b. von
Short Sellern ............Wenn du der Meinung bist
das "das Ding abkackt" ( Zitat) verkauf doch
einfach deine Aktien, kein Mensch hat dir zum Kauf geraten.
Moeglicherweise hast du mit Lotto mehr Erfolg!!!!
Sagt man mal den Leuten die Meinung sagt sind alle
gleich eingeschnappt.Ich nenne das konstruktive
Kritik.Aber gut ,so sind halt die meisten
gestrickt.

[apano]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.118.530 von nvidia am 01.11.18 21:31:19

hello nvidia,

Danke für die vielen Tipps wo und wie man investieren sollte.
AMAG legt nicht Millionen für die Lizens von Vyleesi auf den Tisch, wenn es nach der Zulassung
damit nicht die Vermarktung starten kann. Die Registrierung macht rein logisch auch erst Sinn,
wenn die Zulassung auf dem Tisch liegt.
Was die Zulassung betrifft bin ich optimistisch. Die Studien sehen sehr gut aus und
Bremelanotide wirken. Im Internet gibt es Erfahrungsberichte und einen Schwarzmarkt für das Zeug.
Risiken sehe ich von politischer Seite von den Moralisten und das Auflagen kommen die
eine Vermarktung stark einschränken.
Wo sind den deiner Meinung nach die Risiken und Chancen bei Palatin? Wenn du die Firma so intensiv studiert hast fällt dir doch dazu bestimmt etwas ein. Vielleicht jenseits vom Niveau:

det ding kakt ab

[HH-ahoi2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.118.530 von nvidia am 01.11.18 21:31:19

Ok, bin wieder an Bord,

nur um Missverständnissen vorzubeugen!
Gruss

[nvidia]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.109.353 von apano am 31.10.18 22:29:44

hallo apano ( HH-ahoi ????)
ich finde es nicht gut wenn man irgentwo investiert ist und man über das Produkt worum es geht
veralterte Informationen hat. Also Rekynda !!!!! ,wie es übrigens korrekt heißt, gibt es nicht mehr.
Es heißt Vyleesi !!!!! Übrigens leicht zu finden auf der Palatin Seite. Es sind oft Kleinigkeiten von
Veränderungen , die oft sehr wichtig sind.Wenn du noch genauer hinsiehst steht TM dahinter.
Es bedeutet exakt nach amerikanischem Recht ein anerkanntes!!!!!!!!!! aber nocht nicht registriertes
Produkt.Was denkst du was könnte das wohl bedeuten?????????? Die Frage must du dir schon selbst
beantworten. Allgemein gesprochen,man sollte nur da investiert sein was man auch versteht,es gibt alle!!! Information über eine Firma im Netz .Ich persönliche habe mich sehr intensiv , also ca.3-4
Monate mit dieser Firma beschäftigt und Fehler moechte ich mir bei Palatin nicht erlauben,dafür ist mein
Beitrag (monitärer Art) einfach zu hoch.!!!!Wenn jemand nur ein paar tausend Stück hat kann man nicht viel verlieren.Aber trotz allem,nur Mut.

[Mammut22]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.109.353 von apano am 31.10.18 22:29:44

Das Ding hier wird im März rocken, bis dahin heißt es Geduld haben

[apano]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.103.380 von nvidia am 31.10.18 12:46:25

Erst mal Danke für den Beitrag. Schade das hier kaum Diskutiert wird. Es ist gut für die Nerven wenn
man Leidensgenossen an seiner Seite hat, die auch auf die Erlösung durch die FDA hoffen.

Zu deiner Frage zum Produkt. Ein gesundes Sexualleben ist wichtig für das Wohlbefinden eines
Menschen. Wenn Menschen leiden und ihnen geholfen werden kann finde ich das völlig in
Ordnung.

Ich weiß natürlich das für einige Menschen Sex = Pfui ist und die echt Probleme mit Rykinda haben.

Wir leben in einer freien Gesellschaft. Keiner sollte anderen seine Ideologien oder Moralvorstellungen
aufzwingen.

[nvidia]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.074.663 von apano am 27.10.18 20:58:10

Wie ist deine ganz persönliche Einstellung zu Vyleesi????
wuerde mit brennend interessieren!!!!

[apano]

Palatin Technologies: Prepare For The New Female Viagra
Oct. 25, 2018 1:00 PM ET|
24 comments
|
About: Palatin Technologies, Inc (PTN), Includes: AMAG
Tien Duy Vo
Tien Duy Vo
Growth, research analyst, biotech, healthcare
(115 followers)
Summary

Bremelanotide has passed NDA filing stage and is expected to be launched in early 2019.

Bremelanotide has outstanding market opportunities thanks to higher efficiency over its competitor and increasing market demand for HSDD treatment.

Licensing agreement with AMAG promise a successful launch in the U.S, thus other potential markets still remain.

Healthy financial condition with increasing net income.

Palatin Technologies (PTN) is the biopharmaceutical company that has successfully developed bremelanotide, a drug that deals with problem of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) in women. bremelanotide is expected to receive FDA approval in early 2019, which would generate large source of revenue for the company from its licensing agreements. In this article, we will explain why we think Palatin is now having favorable conditions for future growth, and that it is now a good time to invest in its stock.

Outstanding market opportunities for bremelanotide

Bremelanotide, traded name Vyleesi or Rekynda, is a drug that deals with problems of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) in women. It has been proven to have positive results from two trials in Phase 3 with more than 1200 patients. In the studies, two index/scale were examined: Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) and Female Sexual Distress Scale (FSDS). In both trials, results showed that patients on the treated group showed a statistically significant increase in desire domain and statistically significant reduction in distress related to low sexual desire compared to placebo.

Up to now, bremelanotide faces one direct competitor named Addyi (flibanserin), which is the only drug currently approved in the U.S for treatment of HSDD. However, we believe Bremelanotide has full potential to outpace Addyi due to the following reasons:

Firstly, it is important to note that the FDA approval for Addyi included a risk evaluation and a Boxed Warning, which indicated that the use of Addyi would lead to increased risk of severe hypotension and syncope for patients who drink alcohol and for patients who have liver impairment. As Addyi is an oral drug which has to be taken over the long term, it is difficult to completely not taking on alcohol during the whole treatment, especially for those who are used to it. Bremelanotide, in contrast, was well-tolerated during the trial and was shown to not cause serious adverse events.
Secondly, the indication of Addyi requires patients to take the drug every day, which might be inconvenient for many people. Plus, the efficiency of an every-day treatment might not be as high as an immediate treatment, which allows patients to take the drug only when they need it for an immediate result. In fact, while women have to take a pill of Addyi every day, they reported up to only one more "satisfying sexual event" per month with a low efficacy rate of 10%. Those figures seem to be not desiring enough for women to risk their health with some serious aforementioned side effects. Thus, only around 227 women were using Addyi in the subsequent months after the drug was launched, even though it was the first and only approved drug that provides treatment for this area of high unmet need. Bremelanotide, on the other hand, only need to be injected about 30-45 minutes before sex, which has been shown to help women significantly increase sex desire and reduce distress.
Besides, patients using Addyi must pay as much as $426 for a supply of 30 tablets, which must be used continuously within a month. Over the long term, this treatment is very expensive as patients must continue using it all year around, which add another minus to the drug.

Addyi’s inability to meet market demand has opened up outstanding market opportunity for bremelanotide. In 2015, HSDD was estimated to affect 8 million women in the U.S. According to Palatin, this number has almost doubled to around 15 million, which further boost the market demand. Of this large number of pre-menopausal woman suffering from HSDD, as large as 95% are unaware that it is a treatable disorder, and that the majority of them would use bremelanotide if it is advised by their doctor.

As bremelanotide had shown very positive results during clinical trials and has no serious adverse effects, it is very likely that it will be able to capture the currently increasing market demand. To make a small comparison, let’s look at worldwide sales figure of Viagra – a very popular product treating erectile dysfunction and pulmonary arterial hypertension in men – over the last 15 years.

(Source: Viagra sales)

On average, Viagra generated more than $1.7B sales annually, with around 50% of revenues coming from the US. Taken into account that the number of American men suffering from sexual dysfunction is approx. double that of women (30 million vs 15 million, respectively), and that a new product would need some time to gain market share, we expect bremelanotide's annual sales to be somewhere between 200 million to 300 million in the U.S market. Also keep in mind that there are still many other potential markets available for bremelanotide that will further drive sales.

Licensing agreement with AMAG is a big step for a successful market penetration.

In January 2017, Palatin entered into a license agreement with AMAG Pharmaceuticals for exclusive licensing agreement of bremelanotide. For biotech companies, it is of great importance to find a licensing partner for their developed products, otherwise they would have to pay a large amount of money for marketing and selling activities. Thus, the licensing agreement with AMAG, a specialist in women's health, is very beneficial to Palatin. Please take a look on our article about AMAG to see why it has favorable conditions for a successful product launch. The licensing contract would also allow Palatin to concentrate its resources on developing its core business rather than marketing and selling, which is currently not their strengths.

The partnering relationship with AMAG is a perfect combination not only because of its popularity in the field of women’s healthcare but also of its newly developed Autoinjector technology. In early 2018, AMAG receive FDA approval for Makena® auto-injector, a drug-device combination product that contains a short, thin and non-visible needle. Possessing this technology, it is very possible that AMAG would develop an auto-injector device for bremelanotide so that patients can directly and easily inject the drug by themselves, making it more user-friendly and convenient. Thus, AMAG’s technology is a good fit for bremelanotide.

Besides, Palatin also targeted the Asia market by signing licensing agreements with Kwangdong Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical for exclusive right to develop and commercialize bremelanotide in Korea and China, Taiwan, Hong Kong S.A.R. and Macau S.A.R. These licensing agreements not only generated an upfront payment for Palatin but will also bring about sales royalties in the future.

It is important to note that the licensing agreement with AMAG, Kwangdong and Fosun covers the North America and some other markets in Asia only. Even though North America is the most promising market, Palatin can further increase its earnings if it is able to find partner agreements in other regions, such as Europe and Africa. A study on female sexual dysfunction showed that developed regions such as Europe normally has the rate of female sexual dysfunction of 40%, whereas in developing regions, such as the Middle East or Africa, this rate is as high as 62%. Therefore, if Palatin can succeed to capture those markets, they can gain an even larger source of revenue.

Healthy financial condition with increasing net income

For the year ended June 2018, Palatin recorded a net income of $24.7M from a previous loss of more than $13M. Looking at the table below, we can see that the bottom line has been improving since last year thanks to revenues received from the licensing agreements, mainly from AMAG. Under this contract, AMAG would pay Palatin a combined unit of accounting totalling $85M, which is recognized over the arrangement using the proportional method as Palatin completes its development obligations, resulting in the revenues of approx. $42M and $44M in fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2017, respectively. As June 4, 2018, Palatin received the FDA acceptance for bremelanotide filing, thus enabling it to recognize another $20M milestone payment.

(Source: Palatin's report)

Besides the positive earnings, Palatin’s holding of cash and cash equivalent was $38M for the year ended June 2018, while the total liabilities were only $12M - less than one third of cash holdings. Thus, the company’s liquidity position is currently very good, and there is no insolvency problem in the foreseeable future.

Risks

Probably, one of the riskiest aspects investors should take into account before investing in PTN is that bremelanotide is the only product that has passed the NDA submission stage, while all other remaining products are still in Phase 1 or pre-clinical trial. PTN has no certainty about when these products will proceed to the next stages, and whether they could deliver good results in the following trials to guarantee FDA approvals. Thus, it means that the company is now highly dependent on bremelanotide, and if the drug is not approved, it could significantly harm the company’s value. Specifically, if bremelanotide fails to be approved, PTN's next year revenue would sink to 0, resulting in a net loss. In this case, its share price will definitely suffer from a large decrease and might go back to around $0.3 - $0.4 as in 2016. However, we believe this event is very unlikely to happen as all results from clinical studies were good.

Moreover, it is also noteworthy that PTN is a small-cap company (market capitalization: $186M and share price was below $1) with limited operating history; thus, investors might face several risks when investing in it. Firstly, as a small reporting company, PTN is allowed to provide simplified executive compensation disclosures in its filings and it also has certain other decreased disclosure obligations in their SEC filings. Therefore, investors might have more difficulties finding detailed/specific information regarding the company's information, which would be more easily accessible for other companies. Secondly, PTN's operations are primarily focused on acquiring, developing and securing technology as well as its principal product. Before 2017, no revenues were recorded. These limited operations history provides a limited basis for stockholders to assess the company's performance and to make future forecast.

As of June 30, 2018, PTN had cash and cash equivalents of $38M, which would be sufficient to run operations until September 2019. As we discussed earlier, all remaining products are still in phase 1 or pre-clinical trial. If they are to proceed to later stages, PTN would need to raise additional capital through equity or debt financing, which may cause dilution to existing shareholders or higher interest expense.

Conclusion

Palatin's stock is currently traded at $0.91 (as of 22 October 2018). However, we expect this price to increase significantly after bremelanotide is approved by the FDA.

Under the term of licensing contracts, Palatin is entitled to receive milestone payments after FDA approvals of $60M from AMAG, $7.5M from Fosun and $3M from Kwangdong. Altogether these add up to $70.5M in revenues next year. Moreover, also under the term of the licensing contracts, Palatin may receive tiered royalties on annual net sales of bremelanotide up to $300M from AMAG, $92.5M from Fosun and $37.5M from Kwangdong. As Palatin does not report exactly the percentage of annual sales it would receive as tiered royalties, it is difficult to make any prediction. However, as we have discussed earlier, we see a very promising future for bremelanotide. Therefore, we expect this amount to range from $13M to $20M annually (or 3% - 5% of the total royalties). Thus, we expect next year revenue to range from $83.5M to $90.5M, which may raise the net income to around $40M - $47M. With the current P/E ratio 7.96, this would imply a target price of $1.6 - $1.88. Also note that, if Palatin is able to find a licensing partner in Europe, its share price would even increase further. However, we will base our evaluation on the company's current portfolio and partnering contracts only.

From the analysis above, Palatin is having pleasant conditions to grow strongly in the future: increasing market demand for HSDD treatments; bremelanotide's higher efficiency over its competitor; and licensing agreements with AMAG, Kwangdong and Shanghai promise a future successful launch. Therefore, we believe it is now a good time to invest in PTN's stock.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PTN, AMAG.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.



Like this article?

Komm schon nivida, der Artikel ist zwei Tage alt. Sag mir wo alle stehen und wohin alle gehen.

[apano]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.014.615 von nvidia am 21.10.18 16:28:58

he nivida,

wusste nicht das du für Alle sprichst. Na ja bei den erfahrenden Börsenexperten lässt
ja auch mal das Gedächtnis nach, da kann ein Börsenneuling auch mal etwas unterstützen.

[nvidia]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.015.278 von Dumounde am 21.10.18 19:29:22

der Druckteufel war wohl wieder aktiv

ja,soll natuerlich Palatin heissen,danke