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[PokerDog]

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ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT


http://aktien.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_OSI=7758802


Homepage: http://www.ap-thai.com/


Viele Grüsse POKERDOG

[Alexander82]

CS zu Asian Property Dev.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on AP with Bt4.3/sh
(previously Bt4.5/sh) target price based on a P/E of 8.0x in FY07.
We believe that AP’s strengths lie on its ability to acquire land (for
townhouses and condo developments) and to adjust its strategies
to changes in demand.
● We see solid earnings base in FY07 given AP’s consistent project
launches in FY06 and contribution from current backlog order.
Backlog sales of Siam Pathumwan condos are estimated to
contribute 36% of net profit to AP’s bottom line in 2007.
● AP’s strength lies in its flexibility to adjust its strategy to the market.
Though townhouses continue to be the biggest contributors, AP has
been able to capture growth in the condo market.
● Though we see the downside risks in 2006 given the current
market situation, expectations for the stock have been low. AP’s
position should be much stronger in 2007 given its backlog order
and land acquisitions, we believe. We maintain our
OUTPERFORM rating on the stock with Bt4.3/sh target price.

Downside risks to 2006 given current market situation
Similar to other developers, Asian Property Development (AP.BK,
Bt3.34, OUTPERFORM, TP Bt4.3) is facing a weak 2H06, in our
opinion. However, the downside to earnings and, thus, share price
should be less than what we saw in 2005. With more projects on hand
in 2006, earnings risks are lower and less dependent on the timing of
new launches. In addition, AP has launched a promotional campaign
aiming to boost sales in 2H06.
2007 already supported by backlog order
We see a more solid earnings base in FY07 given AP’s consistent
project launches in FY06 and the contribution from its current backlog
of orders. Backlog sales of Siam Pathumwan condos are estimated to
contribute Bt450 mn (or 36%) of net profit to AP’s bottom line in 2007.
If demand improves, we should see upside potential on earnings in
2007. Our FY07E forecast is already 10% above market consensus.
Adjusting to changes in demand.
AP’s strength lies in its flexibility to adjust its strategy to the market.
Although townhouses continue to be the biggest contributors, AP has been
able to capture growth in condo market by launching two projects per year.
In term of market segment, AP has lowered its targeted market in 2006,
compared with last year. More land acquisitions in CBD have also been
made with launches expected in early 2007.
Figure 1: AP's new launches in 2006
TH
63%
SDH
17%
Condo
20%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Condo project in Thonglor to launch
AP is planning to launch a mixed-used development in Thonglor
(Sukhumvit 55) by 4Q06. We expect sales to be strong given its prime
location. The project, which is 70% completed, was acquired by AP in
2004 with the Floor-to-Area ratio of 10:1 (compared with the new FAR
of 8:1). We estimate the total project value of Bt2.2 bn or an estimated
net profit of Bt600 mn. The project would be completed in 2008. This
could provide a positive news flow in 2H06.
Maintain OUTPERFORM, growth expectations for 2007
Although we believe that 2006’s earnings could be weak given the
current market situation, earnings expectations on AP have already
been low. We have revised down our earnings forecast to reflect
higher effective tax rate (on cash receipts from the collection of down
payments) and higher advertising costs related to the launch of Vogue
Thonglor in 2006. We have revised up our FY08 forecast by 18% to
reflect the revenue recognition from the same project. We maintain
our OUTPERFORM rating on AP with a target price of Bt4.3
(previously Bt4.5), translating into target P/E of 8x in FY07E.