Ligand (LGND) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[gholzbauer]

Hallo, in aller Kürze: es sieht heute nach einem starken Rückgang aus. Kauft jemand? Ich bin noch am Recherchieren. LGND steht schon länger auf meiner Beobachtungsliste, vielleicht schlage ich zu.

[gholzbauer]

Die werden ja richtig abgeledert von ELN
5 $ ist mir noch zu viel für einen Einstieg.
Aber intraday müßte heute evtl schon was gehen.

Mal schauen, was ELN und ISIS machen ...

[macsoja]

Wieso werden die überhaupt so abgestraft?

[gholzbauer]

Müssen an Elan 100 Mio $ zahlen, haben z.Z. aber nur 35 Mio, also Verwässerung zu erwarten; zudem zahlen sie für eigene Aktien an Elan 9$ pro Stück, was gleich mal einen schönen Verlust bedeutet. Die Profitabilität wird wohl auch schon wieder nach hinten verschoben. Bisschen viel auf einmal.

[gholzbauer]

Ligand`s Drug Deal Is Labeled a Loser

By Adam Feuerstein
Senior Writer
11/13/2002 02:30 PM EST



Shares of Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) dropped
29% Wednesday after the company turned in a subpar third-quarter performance and renegotiated a royalty deal with Irish drugmaker Elan (ELN:NYSE ADR - news - commentary - research - analysis) that met with scorn from analysts.


Three investment banks downgraded Ligand Wednesday on the news. Shares were off $2.11, or 29.5%, to $5.03 in recent trading.

Tuesday night, Ligand reported a narrower net loss of 10 cents per share, but analysts were looking for a net loss of just a penny per share, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Third-quarter revenue rose 32% to $25.3 million, but again, that was below Wall Street expectations. Sales of the painkilling drug Avinza of $6.2 million disappointed, and the company lowered sales guidance for the remainder of the year.

But the news that got analysts really screaming was a two-part restructuring of Ligand`s Avinza license and supply agreement with Elan. Ligand said it intends to spend $100 million to reduce the Avinza royalty it pays to Elan from 30% to 35% to roughly 10% of net sales.

Second, the company said it plans to spend $19.8 million to repurchase and retire 2.2 million shares of company stock currently owned by Elan. The reworked agreement essentially gives Ligand nearly all rights to Avinza, which Ligand licensed from Elan in 1998.

To pay for the new agreement, Ligand said, it would raise $135 million through a five-year convertible debt offering.

"The restructuring of the Avinza license and supply agreement and the Ligand stock repurchase and lockup represent major progress toward realizing the full value of Avinza and increasing Ligand shareholder value," said Ligand Chairman and CEO David Robinson in a statement.

Unimpressed

Banc of America Securities biotech analyst Mike King downgraded Ligand to market perform from buy, raising serious issues with the new Elan deal.

"Given the slower-than-expected launch of Avinza and the current lack of a co-promotion partner, we are concerned that Ligand will be unable to reach a sufficient Avinza sales level to justify the transaction," he wrote in his downgrade note. King`s firm doesn`t have a banking relationship with Ligand.

[gholzbauer]

Dow Jones Business News
Shares of Drug Concern Ligand Plummet Amid Downgrades
Wednesday November 13, 3:52 pm ET
By Roger Cheng

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.`s shares plummeted after several investment firms downgraded the stock following the release of its third-quarter results.

The company reported late Tuesday a third-quarter net loss of 10 cents a share, a penny a share wider than Wall Street estimates. The company blamed weak sales of pain-medication drug Avinza. Ligand also lowered its 2002 revenue guidance for the drug to $18 million to $20 million from $30 million.

Banc of America Securities analyst Michael King, who lowered the company`s investment rating to "market performer" from "buy," blamed the weak quarter on " a lack of management execution and operational ability." He added, "We continue to be disappointed with the launch of pain medication Avinza."

Mr. King went on to say weak management execution shown in the quarter inspires little confidence in the company`s future. He added management`s willingness to dilute shareholders through the addition of debt to the balance sheet is "disconcerting."

Mr. King doesn`t own stock in Ligand, and Banc of America doesn`t have an investment-banking relationship with the company.

At 4 p.m. EST on the Nasdaq Stock Market, Ligand shares were down $1.89, or 26%, to $5.25 on volume of 6.5 million shares. The daily average is 495,328. The stock earlier hit a 52-week low of $4.80.

Although First Albany analyst David Webber basically echoed Mr. King`s sentiments in his downgrade, he mentioned one bright spot in Ligand`s disappointing quarter.

Aside from concern over the company`s fundamental problems, there have been fears that major shareholder Elan Corp. would dump its shares on the open market. Instead, Elan agreed to a six- month lock-up on 11.8 million of its 12.2 million shares owned. Ligand has about 71.4 million shares outstanding. It also agreed to an orderly distribution of the shares after the lockout.

Despite the positive point, the outlook remains negative, prompting Mr. Webber`s downgrade of the stock to "underperform" from "buy." He noted Ligand`s other major drugs, Ontak and Targretin, showed only moderate recovery.

Mr. Webber doesn`t own shares in Ligand, and First Albany doesn`t maintain an investment-banking relationship with the company.

Ligand develops small-molecule drugs designed to mimic or block the activities of various hormones and cytokines in order to regulate gene activity and the genetic processes affecting many diseases.

Despite the downgrades made by the various analysts, a Ligand spokesman said the company had a "solid quarter." He noted revenue was up 32% to $25.3 million on a 45% surge in product sales to $16.5 million.

The spokesman added that because Avinza was launched at the end of the second quarter, Ligand has gone through an adjustment period, as the company is doubling its sales force to promote the drug. "That should help sales growth," he added. "It`s a very important near-term driving force."

[gholzbauer]

Reuters
UPDATE 2-Ligand shares drop after Elan sells stake
Wednesday November 13, 4:22 pm ET
By Kim Dixon

(Adds context; closing share price)

CHICAGO, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:LGND - News) shares lost almost 30 percent of their value on Wednesday after Irish drugmaker Elan Corp. Plc (Irish:ELN.I - News) sold off $20 million of its stake in the biotech firm.

San Diego-based Ligand closed down about $1.89, or more than 26 percent, to $5.25 on the Nasdaq, making it the biggest percentage loser on that exchange. It traded as low as $4.80.

The slide comes a day after Elan and Ligand changed terms on a deal regarding the pain-killing drug Avinza, letting Elan decrease its stake in exchange for $100 million cash. Several analysts downgraded Ligand on the news, and on Ligand`s greater-than-expected 10 cent- per-share quarterly loss.

Elan Corp.`s current stake in Ligand wasn`t immediately available.

First Albany analyst David Weber said Ligand`s shares were hurt because Ligand will need to issue more debt to pay Elan. Also, lagging growth in Ligand`s current product line is also a liability.

"They missed their numbers and the existing products appear to be growing more slowly," Weber, who owns no shares, said.

The deal involves a key Ligand drug Avinza, a form of morphine that Elan manufactures. Elan will continue to make the drug which treats severe pain in cancer and other patients.

Under the new terms, Elan will cut the royalty rate on U.S. and Canadian sales to about 10 percent from a range between 30 percent and 35 percent and give up its option on a co-promotion deal with Ligand for Avinza.

Revenue is unlikely to meet previous targets partly due to limited retail pharmacy distribution of Avinza, Ligand said.

"Limited retail distribution has been one of our principal areas of disappointment," Chief Operating Officer Thomas Silberg said in a statement, citing caution among retail pharmacies after the controversy over misuse of another painkiller, which could be a reference to OxyContin.

[gholzbauer]

BA on Ligand
by: gainorpain (52/San Francisco, CA)
11/13/02 12:36 pm
Msg: 21190 of 21253


11:09 (Dow Jones) Banc Of America blames a lack of management execution and operational ability for Ligand Pharmaceuticals` (LGND) weak 3Q results. "The lack of management execution as highlighted by the 3Q02 results gives us little confidence in future revenue visibility, especially with regard to Avinza sales. Furthermore, management`s willingness to dilute shareholders through the addition of debt to the balance sheet is disconcerting." BoA downgrades LGND to market performer. LGND down 28% to $5.14.



Re: Ligand in "The Street"
by: RevMikeB
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Sell
11/13/02 02:53 pm
Msg: 21204 of 21253


<<<Tuesday night, Ligand lowered 2002 Avinza prescription guidance, which King believes makes it nearly impossible for the company to meet its sales forecasts. "They have implicitly overpaid for the product," he says.

Legg Mason analyst Stefan Loren highlighted similar problems as he downgraded Ligand to sell from hold.>>>

"Overall, we are disappointed in Ligand`s quarterly performance, expect downward revisions in expectations, and believe the convertible offering and six-month lock up perpetuate the overhang on the shares," wrote Loren. His firm has a banking relationship with the company.



---------------------------


Alles nicht so rosig: Cash-Notstand, möglicherweise mit 100 Mio $ zuviel bezahlt für 20-25 zusätzliche Prozent an Avinza (das im nächsten Jahr evtl. nur 50 Mio $ Umsatz macht), drohende Verwässerung durch Wandelanleihen, enttäuschende Avinza-Umsätze, kein Vertriebspartner bei starker Konkurrenz, die anderen Medikamente zeigen zuwenig Wachstum, Projektionen abermals verfehlt, von Elan mit den Aktien abgezockt worden, der Rest der von ELN gehaltenen LGND-Shares kommt irgendwann doch noch auf den Markt.
Für die nächten Monate muß LGND hoffen, keinen Fehlschlag in den 3 Phase-III-Tests zu liefern; andererseits könnte ein Überraschungserfolg die Wende für den Kurs bringen. Die Pipeline ist im Grunde nicht schlecht, und mit 4 (bzw. 5) zugelassenen Produkten hat man sich immerhin in Reichweite der Profitabilität gebracht.

Wenn der Kurs vor Plazierung der Wandelanleihe nochmals unter Druck geraten sollte (unter 4$ vielleicht?), werde ich wahrscheinlich doch einen Einstieg wagen. Kaufen, wenn die Nacht am finstersten ist ...

[kosto1929]

Ich würde mit einem Kauf nicht mehr warten! Mit enger Risikobegrenzung!

[gholzbauer]

Moin.
Wo würdet ihr die kurzfristigen Kursziele für LGND sehen?
Ich glaube, 20$ müssten drin sein.
Allerdings überlege ich, einen SL zu setzen,
bin nur nicht ganz sicher, wo.
14$?