Globex Mining- Startschuss ??? (Seite 2466)

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.806.253 von freakilein am 18.12.07 18:18:27

Kann schon sein, dass Du bei 3.40 den Mahnfinger gezeigt hast.

An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt und schauen wir nun vorwärts.

Grad eben habe ich gesehen dass es bei SRA News gab...so eine Art Lagebericht in Sachen Produktionsaufnahme.

Die Mühle beginnt noch diesen Monat zu laufen und die Schmelzeinrichtungen werden im späteren Januar 2008 bedient usw. undsofort....habe noch nicht alles gelesen aber ich stells hier mal rein.

www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=804333

Ein guter Tag heute. Jack ist im Board bei SRA und der hat denen sicher etwas Dampf gemacht, dass die einen Bericht rauslassen....

[freakilein]

muss mal kurz zum elviskommentar von heute morgen etwas loswerden,der mich als anfänger und was weiss ich alles beschimpfte..
er schreibt unter anderem das ich zu spät gewarnt habe..aha.und das ich das doch in zukunft in der euphoriephase machen sollte.dann sollte dieser gute herr elvis mal zurückblättern und meine kommentare lesen wo globex noch bei 3,40 stand..da habe ich geschreiben,das der wert ein eindeutiger short ist,das kann sogar william noch bestätigen..
und ich wiederhole mich gerne nochmal,meine intension ist es keine aktie schlecht zu reden,sondern ich möchte anleger lediglich einfach nur zum nachdenken anregen auch wenn das mir nicht abgenommen wird,weil ich tag für tag sehe wie geld im wahrsten sinne des wortes verbrannt wird..65 prozenteinbruch bei einem fundamental sehr guten wert ist mehr als seltsam
ich war einmal in globex investiert und das war short von 3,30 bis 2,75..nicht mehr und nicht weniger..und ich wollte gestern nacht einfach mal meine sicht der dinge klarstellen und schrieb unteranderem das ein rebound heute kommen könnte..also etwas genauer lesen elvis..manchmal komme ich mir in manchen boards echt ein bischen verarscht vor,weil die naivität mancher leute grenzenlos ist.

[Zocker1997]

Ist ja wahnsinn hier!
Morgen bestimmt wieder über 2,00 Euro!

[GMX111]

anybody who wants the Khandaker study can get it in PDF, send me an email

[GMX111]

* Our target price and target market cap are aiming
at a 12–18 month investment period. For details,
please see financial forecasts and analysis.
Globex Mining Enterprises Inc.
(GMX: TSX, G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart,
Berlin, Munich, Xetra, and GLBXF:
OTCQX)
North America: Canada
A Junior Resource Company
Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX: TSX, G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin,
Munich, Xetra, and GLBXF: OTCQX), a Canada-based junior resource
company, holds a diversified portfolio of approximately 80 wholly owned multimetal
properties in North America with zinc, copper, gold, silver, uranium,
molybdenum, nickel, platinum, palladium, magnesium, and talc potential. Most
of these properties are concentrated in Quebec, Canada, in the Abitibi
Greenstone Belt which is a highly mineralized corridor hosting several active
mines. Quebec’s investment-friendly policies further add to the attractiveness of
the properties. Globex develops its properties mostly by farming out to third
parties or through joint ventures (JVs), thereby preserving its capital. Three of
the company’s projects are NI 43-101 compliant and are expected to be online in
early to mid 2008. The company is expected to benefit from these projects
through royalties, upfront cash, and share investments. We see these factors
driving the company’s stock value in the near to medium term.
We have valued Globex based on the three advanced-stage projects. The
valuation does not cover the remaining approximately 77 properties currently in
the early to intermediate stages of exploration, or under option to third parties
and providing option revenue to Globex. As and when the company determines
resources on any of these properties, we will revise our valuation estimate.
• Globex’s Fabie Bay and Magusi River project in Quebec is a
polymetallic asset optioned to First Metals Inc (FMA: TSX) for a
consideration of C$1 million, a 2% net metal royalty (NMR), 10% issued
capital of First Metals, and a 10% net profit royalty. The Fabie Bay
deposit contains inferred resource of 672,800 tonnes of ore grading
2.77% copper. The Magusi River deposit contains 197 million pounds
(lb) of zinc, more than 71 million lb of copper, and 80,000 ounces (oz) of
gold. NMR is calculated as a percentage of the total metal produced
without applying exploration, production, and processing costs thus
translating into better returns.
• Globex is expected to receive significant royalty revenues from the
Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine (MTZ) project in Tennessee, USA. The
mine has an indicated resource base of 12.47 million tonnes grading
3.35% zinc and an inferred resource of 16.65 million tonnes grading
3.43% zinc. Globex enjoys a 1.4% NMR on zinc production at or above
US$1.10/lb or 1% between US$0.90/lb and US$1.09/lb. Globex is also a
shareholder in Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation (SRZ: TSX),
the owner and operator of the mine. Globex’s Russian Kid gold property
in Quebec is optioned to Rocmec Mining Inc (RMI: TSX-V). The
property has a 2,771,800 tonne resource containing 543,450 ounces of
gold. Globex is entitled to a 5% NMR for the first 25,000 ounces
produced and 3% thereafter.
• Additionally, other properties in the company’s asset portfolio represent
promising exploration potential. The wholly-owned Normetal Mine is a
potential blue-sky project which has historically produced over 10
million tonnes of copper and zinc ore. The company is also undertaking
extensive drilling at the Wood-Pandora gold property (Quebec) held in
JV with Queenston Mining Inc (QMI: TSX). Moreover, Globex is keen
on developing its magnesium-talc deposit in Deloro Township, Ontario.
The company aims to tap the domestic demand for magnesium which has
large application potential in the automotive industry. Domestic demand
is currently met by imports from China.
http:// www.globexmining.com
September 10, 2007
Initiation of Coverage
Equity Research
Analyst: Rishi Narang
Trupti Sawant
[phone]
[e-mail]
www.khandakerpartners.com
Price (C$)
09/10/2007 $4.39
Price Target * $7.34
52 week high $7.76
52 week low $3.40
Shares Outstanding (millions)
Basic Shares 17.49
Options & Warrants 2.63
Fully Diluted 20.12
Capitalization (C$ millions)
Current Market Cap 76.77
Target Market Cap* 128.32
Revenue (C$ millions)
2008E 5.95
2009E 4.82
2010E 2.00
2011E 1.84
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Investment Summary
We are initiating coverage on Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX: TSX; G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin, Munich, Xetra,
and GLBXF: OTCQX) and expect the company’s market capitalization to reach C$128.32 million over a 12–18 month horizon,
with a corresponding target price of C$7.34 per share.
Globex is a Canadian junior resources company with a large and diversified portfolio of about 80 multi-metal (wholly-owned)
properties in North America. Globex’s strategy is to identify, acquire, and explore promising properties and develop them
mainly by farming out working interest or through joint ventures (JVs). This not only saves the company precious capital but
also ensures a steady stream of revenues by way of royalties and option payments.
We see royalty income driving the company’s stock value in the near to medium term as some of its optioned properties
advance towards production. Globex is expected to earn income from royalties, upfront cash, and share investments once each
of these projects come online in early 2008. One such property is the company’s Fabie Bay and Magusi River polymetallic
project (two mineral deposits) which has been optioned out to First Metals Inc (FMA: TSX). The Fabie Bay deposit has an
inferred mineral resource (NI 43-101 compliant) of 672,800 tonnes of ore grading 2.77% copper. The adjacent Magusi River
deposit is a larger multi-metal property containing 197 million lb of zinc, 71 million lb of copper, and 80,000 oz of gold (Au).
Globex is expected to receive a total consideration of C$1 million, 10% issued capital of First Metals, a 2% NMR, and a 10%
net profit royalty.
Globex is also expected to receive significant revenue from the MTZ project, located in Central Tennessee, USA. The project
has indicated mineral resources of 12.47 million tonnes grading 3.35% zinc and inferred resources of 16.65 million tonnes at
3.43% zinc. Globex holds 640,000 shares in Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation (SRZ: TSX), a public company
owning and operating the MTZ project. Production from the mine is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2008 at an
initial rate of 2.4 million tonnes of ore per annum. Globex enjoys a 1.4% NMR on zinc production at or above US$1.10/lb or
1% on all zinc production between US$0.90/lb and US$1.09/lb. Please note that zinc is currently trading at US$1.26/lb.
Additionally, Globex’s Russian Kid gold property (Quebec) which has been optioned to Rocmec Mining Inc. (RMI: TSX-V) is
a 2,771,800 tonne resource base containing 543,450 ounces of gold. Globex is entitled to a 5% NMR for the first 25,000 ounces
produced and 3% thereafter.
While the abovementioned properties will generate revenues in the near term, Globex is simultaneously focusing on the
development of other properties in its portfolio to ensure long term growth. The historical Normetal Mine (100% owned by
Globex) is a potential blue-sky project which produced over 10 million tonnes of copper and zinc ore from 1937 to 1975. Cutoff
grades of 18% zinc and 3% copper have been reported on the mine. Globex intends to commence a drilling program of 18
targeted drill holes totaling approximately 8,500 meters on the property. Additionally, Globex is expediting its activity at the
Wood-Pandora gold property—held in a 50:50 JV with Queenston Mining Inc (QMI: TSX). The JV plans to commission a NI
43-101 report on the Ironwood Zone on the Wood-Pandora property and take the prospect to an advanced exploration stage.
Globex is also considering the development of its magnesium property. Demand for magnesium from the automotive sector is
increasing due to its lightweight characteristic and strength. The company aims to tap this demand which is currently met by
imports from China. Globex is currently in negotiations to fund a bankable feasibility study for its magnesium-talc deposit in
Deloro Township, Ontario. It is an estimated C$1 billion project with more than 100 million tonnes of ore potential. Globex is
seeking a financial or technical partner to help take the project forward.
Since Globex has a portfolio of approximately 80 wholly owned multi-metal properties we consider the company to have a
more long term potential than most of its peers which focus on one or two projects. Furthermore, the strong metal price scenario
is adding value to the company’s properties. Demand for base metals such as zinc and copper has been rising for the past five
years, led by demand from emerging economies such as China and India. Gold, on the other hand, will continue to command
good value on account of it being a hedging tool against inflation and a weak dollar.
We expect Globex’s cash position to improve significantly as it generates revenues from royalties, option payments, and the
shares it owns in companies to which Globex options its properties. The value of these share investments would increase when
production commences. Moreover, recently, Globex closed a private placement totaling C$4 million. The proceeds from the
offer will support further exploration activities. We could not factor the remaining properties as they are currently in the early to
intermediate stages of exploration. However, once resources are determined on these properties, we may include them while
valuing the company. Our valuation estimates would then be revised accordingly.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Company Background & Business Strategy
Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX: TSX; G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin, Munich, Xetra, and GLBXF: OTCQX) is a
Canada-based junior resource company with a diversified portfolio of precious and base metal properties in North America.
Globex was formed in October 21, 1949, as Lyndhurst Mining Co. Ltd. with the objective of bringing the Lyndhurst copper
mine in production. However, falling copper prices forced the company to shut down operations. In 1974, after a 1:10 share
consolidation, the company changed its name to Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. but again failed to gain a foothold due to
inadequate financial support. The real impetus came in 1983 when the present President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr.
Jack Stoch, took over the reins of the company. Since then, the company began acquiring properties in renowned locations in
Canada and USA. Globex was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on December 29, 1995, and subsequently on
various other European exchanges—Frankfurt, Munich, Stuggart, Xetra, and Berlin. The company is also listed on the
International Premier OTCQX in the USA and trades under the symbol GLBXF.
Globex is the 100% owner of approximately 80 multi-metal properties in North America, almost 80% of which are located in
Quebec, Canada. The remaining assets are present in Ontario, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Nevada, Washington, and
Tennessee. While most of the company’s properties are in the early- to mid-stages of exploration, some have already advanced
towards production and are expected to be online in 2008. The company expects to receive a steady stream of royalty revenues
from these properties namely, the Fabie Bay-Magusi River polymetallic project (Quebec), the Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine
project (USA), and the Russian Kid gold property (Quebec).
Globex has a highly qualified and experienced management team. The company is led by Jack Stoch, B.Sc., P.Geo, who has
been instrumental in turning around the company with his knack for identifying and acquiring undervalued assets. Jack Stoch is
accompanied by an equally experienced and well-connected board. Together the management has over 160 years of mining and
financing experience.
Some of the key features of Globex’s strategy are given below.
• Globex acquires properties in areas marked with political stability, a democratic government, and investment-friendly
policies. The company’s properties are located in North America, with almost 80% situated in Quebec, Canada. Quebec
not only offers lower taxation rates but also provides a 42% cash rebate on exploration expenditure.
• Globex selects properties situated in places of proven mining history and infrastructure facilities. Most of the company’s
properties are located in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, a highly prospective mining area in Canada with diversified
mineral potential.
• Globex acquires properties and options them out to third parties, often with the obligation to meet certain work
commitments. This not only saves precious cash but also ensures steady revenue by way of royalties or option payments.
In some cases, the company also forms JVs to develop its properties.
• Globex is a multi-metal player. This reduces the risk arising from exposure to only one or two metals and presents the
company with more opportunities due to the wider metal base—base metals, precious metals, light metals, and specialty
metals.
• Globex acquired properties at a time when metal prices were at historical lows and mining companies were offloading
assets. However, the hike in prices over the past five years has significantly increased the value of the company’s
properties.
• Globex’s CEO and President, Mr. Jack Stoch, is the largest shareholder in the company. This fosters better management
control and incentive.
• Globex is a zero-debt company. Moreover, the company does not have to frequently take the share issue route to fund
exploration (due to revenues from optioning out and the JVs). This avoids share dilution and offers maximum leverage to
existing shareholders. Currently, Globex has only 17.49 million outstanding shares despite being operational for more
than 20 years.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Corporation Events and Actions 2007
• September 04, 2007 – Globex completes private placement of 806,724 shares totalling C$4 million.
• August 13, 2007 – Globex provides an update of the drilling activity on the Wood-Pandora and Central Cadillac
properties.
• July 26, 2007 – Globex plans to undertake drill program at the Normetal (zinc and copper) Mine situated in Quebec.
• July 25, 2007 – Globex terminates the acquisition of the Razor Coal Mine in Utah, USA.
• July 10, 2007 – Globex appoints Mr. Daniel Bernard to the position of Executive Vice-President.
• July 04, 2007 – Globex provides an update on its Getty lead-zinc royalty property held by Acadian Mining Corporation
(ADA: TSX-V).
• June 19, 2007 – Gold Bullion Development Corp. (GBB: TSX-V), operator of Globex’s Rousseau Gold property,
receives approval for extracting a 40,000-tonne bulk sample from underground workings at the Rousseau gold deposit.
• June 13, 2007 – Globex updates its financial prospects for the next twelve months.
• June 06, 2007 – First Metals signs a definitive agreement with Xstrata Copper Canada to mill the Fabie Bay ore at
Xstrata’s Horne mill.
• May 30, 2007 – Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation (SRZ: TSX), the owner and operator of the MTZ project,
announces the closing of an initial public offering (IPO) of C$111.75 million, which will be used for funding the restart
of mining and milling operations at the MTZ project.
• May 24, 2007 – Globex signs an agreement to acquire the Razor Coal Mine in Utah, USA, from Bronco Land Co.
• May 09, 2007 – Rocmec Mining Inc. (RMI: TSX-V) commences daily ore shipments at the Xstrata smelter.
• May 07, 2007 – First Metals receives financing of C$20 million, which will be used for completing the underground
development at Globex’s Fabie Bay project and upgrading the Horne Mill in the Rouyn-Noranda in order to treat the
Fabie Bay ore.
• April 25, 2007 – Globex acquires net smelter royalties on three gold properties, East Amphi, Fourax, and Fayolle.
• April 05, 2007 – Globex provides a summary update on the Fabie Bay property.
• April 04, 2007 – Globex sells two nickel and copper-zinc properties to Exploration Bull’s Eye.
• March 22, 2007 – Globex makes the final payment to the group of prospectors from whom it purchased the Wood Gold
Mine property.
• March 21, 2007 – RMI, the operator of Globex’s Russian Kid gold mine, announces National Instrument 43-101
complaint resource estimates at the Russian Kid property.
• March 05, 2007 – Globex is listed on the exclusive International Premier OTCQX in the USA.
• February 14, 2007 – The drill results announced by Plato Gold Corp reported good grades from drilling activities at
Globex’s Nordeau West gold property
• January 30, 2007 – Globex signs an agreement with Agregat R-N Inc. whereby Agregat can earn a 50% working interest
in the No.1 copper-silica zone at Globex’s Lyndhurst Mine property
• January 30, 2007 – First Metals announces the commencement of the extraction of a 50,000 tonne bulk sample from the
Fabie Bay project.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
• January 18, 2007 – Globex receives an initial royalty payment of 22.3 ounces of gold and 2.7 ounces of silver from the
ore processed at the Russian Kid gold mine.
• January 18, 2007 – Globex announces encouraging drilling results on the Ironwood zone in the Wood-Pandora JV
project.
• January 17, 2007 – Globex acquires a royalty and share interest in the Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine (MTZ) project.
• January 16, 2007 – Globex receives a further C$100,000 cash option payment with respect to the Nordeau East and West
gold properties optioned to Plato Gold Corp. (PGC: TSX-V).
• January 12, 2007 – First Metals Inc., to which Globex has optioned the Fabie Bay and Magusi River properties, enters
into an agreement with Xstrata Copper Canada to custom mill and produce a copper concentrate at Xstrata’s facilities.
• January 11, 2007 – Noront Resources Ltd. (NOT: TSX-V) and Hawk Precious Minerals Inc. (HAWK: CNQ) agree to
enter into the second stages of option agreements with respect to Globex’s Hunters Point (uranium-gold) and Grand
Calumet (uranium fluorite) projects.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Management
Board of Directors and Officers
Jack Stoch, President & Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Jack Stoch, B.Sc., P.Geo., is the President, CEO, and a major shareholder in Globex and is an experienced geologistentrepreneur.
Mr. Stoch’s expertise is in the frugal acquisition and exploration of premier quality gold and base-metal properties.
He has been engaged in the acquisition and vending of exploration programs since 1976. At one time, Mr. Stoch was reported to
be the largest private mineral rights holder in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Mr. Stoch has been instrumental in developing a
mature exploration portfolio for Globex and in expanding the company’s exploration, evaluation, and mining team.
Dianne Stoch, Secretary-Treasurer & Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
Dianne Stoch is the Secretary-Treasurer and CFO of the company. From 1969 to 1987, Mrs. Stoch has held various positions in
Noranda Inc. including Corporate Accountant of Noranda Sales, Corporate Planner of Noranda Inc., Toronto, and Senior
Accountant Analyst of Noranda Inc., Horne Division.
Daniel Bernard, Executive Vice-President
Daniel Bernard, Eng. M.Sc., M.B.A., joined Globex as Executive Vice-President in 2007. He has a vast engineering and
geological background including positions with Inco Ltd., Roche Groupe Conseil Ltee, Inmet Mining Corporation (IMN: TSX),
Soquem Inc., and Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX: NYSE) as project or senior engineer. From 2001 to 2003, he was Vice-
President of Societe miniere Pershimco, a gold exploration and development company. From 1999 to 2001, he served as
Executive Director of the Quebec Mineral Exploration Association. Mr. Bernard was the elected member of the Quebec
National Assembly for the Rouyn-Noranda/Temiscamingue riding from 2003 to 2007.
Ian Atkinson, Director
Ian Atkinson, M.Sc., A.K.C., D.I.C., is a professional geologist and is the Vice-President, Exploration, of Centerra Gold Inc.
Prior to this, he was Vice-President, Exploration and Strategy, of Hecla Mining Company (HL: NYSE). From 2001 to 2004, Mr.
Atkinson has served as a geological consultant for the international mining and exploration community. From 1996 to 2001, he
was Senior Vice-President, Operations & Exploration, of Battle Mountain Gold Company. Before that, he had been with Hemlo
Inc. since 1991. Mr. Atkinson held various managerial positions with Noranda Exploration Co. Ltd. from 1979 to 1991. From
1974 to 1978, he was a geologist with McIntyre Mines Ltd. He has contributed to the discovery of several mineral deposits
including the Freewest/Noranda Harker-Holloway gold mine near Kirkland Lake, Ontario. Mr. Atkinson is also a director of
Atikwa Minerals Corporation (ATK: TSX-V).
Chris Bryan, Director
Chris Bryan, B.Sc. Geology, B. Comm, is a retired geologist and a former President of CBIM, an OSC-registered investment
counsel. From 1994 to 1995, he was President of Ophir Capital, an investment management company. Prior to this, Mr. Bryan
was Vice-President, Director, and Portfolio Manager of Bolton-Tremblay Inc. from 1989 to 1994. He was also a mining
analyst/portfolio manager at the Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec from 1985 to 1989. For seven years till 1985, he was
a mining analyst with Levesque Beaubien Inc. and Nesbitt Thompson Bongard Inc.
Joel Schneyer, Director
Joel Schneyer, a mineral economist and natural resource analyst, is President of Mercantile Resource Finance Inc., an advisory
firm to the natural resource sector. He has acted as a financial and strategic planning advisor and expert witness to TSX, private
equity & hedge funds, and law firms and foreign governments. Prior to founding Mercantile in 1996, Mr. Schneyer was
Manager of Derivative Finance Americas for Barclays Bank PLC (JYN: NYSE) and a Senior Analyst in the New Business and
Strategic Planning Group at Billiton Metals. He holds a BA with High Honors (Geology) from Colgate University, an MA
(Geology) from the University of Texas at Austin, and an MS (Mineral Economics) from the Colorado School of Mines. Mr.
Schneyer is also a director of Etruscan Resources Inc (EET: TSX).
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Industry Overview
The metals and mining industry has been posting strong numbers for the past three to four years, contrary to the trend seen
before 2002. In fact, it is not just the precious metals pack but also the base metals that have been moving quite strongly in line
with the bull-run that started in 2002–03. Mining companies that were earlier struggling with problems of oversupply, increased
stock level and falling prices have a lot more to cheer about following the positive change ushered in by the growth in the world
economy. The global economic uptrend has largely been led by emerging economies such as China, India and other countries in
the developing world. Consequently, the world GDP grew on average by 4.5% over the past three years.
ZINC
Zinc, the fourth most common metal in the world is present not only in rock and soil, but also in air, water and the biosphere.
Plants, animals and humans contain zinc. However, the most common form of zinc available is sphalerite (ZnS), also referred as
zinc blende.
Demand Supply Situation
Zinc consumption has grown dramatically over the past 50 years and continues to increase as world demand increases and as
new avenues of utilization are discovered. This bluish-white metal is primarily used for galvanizing to protect steel from
corrosion, for making brass and for the production of zinc base alloys for the die-casting industry. These first use suppliers then
convert zinc into in a broad range of products. Major end-markets for zinc include the construction sector (45%) followed by
transport (25%) and consumer goods & electrical appliances. On a geographical basis, as of 2006, China was the largest
consumer of zinc (29%) followed by the US (11%).
Like copper, zinc also follows global economic growth trends. Zinc consumption increased from a low of 9.84 million tonnes in
2003 to 11.05 million tonnes in 2006. Consumption of the metal in the first half of 2007 rose 4.6% year-on-year to 5.66 million
tonnes. Zinc consumption has been increasing at a steady rate. China leads the pack with steady increase in zinc demand, dating
back to 1980s. Thanks to booming demand from construction, automotives and home appliances, companies in China continue
to add new galvanizing capacity. As a result, the country that was once a net exporter of refined zinc has turned into a net
importer. Furthermore increased zinc usage in economies such as India, Brazil, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand is likely to
further scale up demand in future.
Coming to supplies, approximately 70% of refined zinc comes from mined ores whereas the balance 30% is sourced from
recycled or secondary zinc. With progress in the technology of zinc production and zinc recycling, the level of zinc recycling is
increasing each year. Zinc is recycled at all stages of production and use – for instance, from scrap that arises during the
production of galvanized steel sheets, during manufacturing and installation processes, and from end-of-life products.
Major suppliers of refined zinc include eastern bloc consisting of China and other erstwhile soviet nations (35%) followed by
Europe (21%), Asia (18%) and North America. Zinc supplies that were running in surplus since 2001 witnessed a deficit of
157,000 tonnes in 2004, thanks to soaring demand and a lower rate of supply growth. The demand supply mismatch continued
in 2005 with the supply deficit increasing to 560,000 tonnes when supplies actually fell by 0.7%. To survive the record low zinc
prices in 2001-2003, several underground zinc mines (making up about 80% of world production) high graded their reserves
which actually reduced underground development and hence cutoff substantial exploration activity. As a result, currently zinc
reserves are being depleted faster than new production is coming on line; this is also due to a dearth of late-stage projects and
time lag in bringing new reserves online. According to a recent study, mine closures are expected to remove 1.4 million tonnes
of zinc production by 2011.
Although the demand-supply gap in 2004 and 2005 was bridged by existing zinc exchange inventories, the inventory levels hit a
fresh low in 2006 and may be insufficient to meet the growing demand, going forward. According to the International Lead and
Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global consumption of refined zinc is forecast to increase by 4% to 11.45 million tonnes in
2007 whereas production is slated to increase by 6.9% to 11.35 million tonnes. During the first six months of 2007, production
of refined zinc was 5.65 million tonnes, nearly meeting demand.
Zinc has been among the strongest base metals so far and is expected to do well due to the lack of supply globally and relatively
low price sensitivity to demand. The price of this metal quadrupled from US$0.33/lb in 2002 to US$1.35/lb at current levels. In
the near term, production remains constrained due to a lack of adequate mine supply, and hence prices are likely to remain at
strong levels on the back of demand growth and reported exchange inventories close to frictional levels. Mine production is set
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1/2/2007
1/12/20071/24/
20072/5/2
0072/15/
20072/27/20073/9/2
007
3/21/
20074/2/2007
4/16/20074/26/20075/9/20075/21/20076/1/2007
6/13/
20076/25/
20077/5/2
007
7/17/2007
7/27/20078/8/2
0078/20/20078/31/2007
US$/tonne
40000
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tonnes
Price Inventory
to grow, but smelting capacity could become a constraint later in the decade. The only key remains China, where continued
mine production growth (due to higher prices) could push the market back toward balance. The chart below shows zinc cash
prices and LME inventories from the beginning of 2007.
Chart 1: Daily Zinc Cash Prices and Warehouse Stock position at LME
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME)
By 2010, production increases at existing operations and previously approved new projects is likely to contribute around 3
million tonnes of new supply, the key amongst them coming from San Cristobal and Cerro Lindo mines in Peru, and Mount Isa
mine in Australia. This may ease off the supply situation; however demand factor from emerging economies will remain a vital
factor in the price play of zinc.
COPPER
Copper, a reddish color metal, is one of the oldest metals known to mankind; it played a key role in the development of
civilizations. Copper (singularly or in combination) has spectacular properties. It is highly ductile, malleable, a good conductor
of thermal and electrical energy, and resists corrosion. Therefore, it is a major industrial metal, which ranks third after iron and
aluminum in terms of quantity consumed.
The construction industry is one of the main consumers of copper, accounting for 37% of the global demand. It is followed by
the electronics and electronic products (26%), transportation, industrial machinery, and consumer and general products
industries. Copper is also widely used in non-electrical applications such as plumbing and roofing. Furthermore, when alloyed
with zinc it turns into brass, which is used extensively in industrial and consumer applications. Today, the electrical uses of
copper such as in power transmission and generation, building wiring, telecommunications, and in the manufacturing of
electrical and electronic products, account for around three quarters of the total copper usage.
Demand-supply situation
The consumption of refined copper is classified into three primary semi-fabricated or first-use product groups – wire rods,
copper alloy products, and copper products. The first-use products are subsequently utilized as components in the downstream
production of end-use products. Wire rod (including scrap) accounts for 55% of the total copper consumption in the West, while
copper products and copper alloys account for 28% and 17%, respectively.
The demand for copper more or less follows the global economic growth. From the lows of early 2000, the demand for refined
copper increased at a CAGR of 2.5% to 16.6 million tonnes in 2005. Although demand grew sharply over 2002–04, it declined
marginally by 0.8% in 2005 due to the fears of an economic slowdown in the US and low speculation activity following
historically high prices. Nonetheless, the red metal was back in business in 2006 with the demand increasing 2.3% to 17.0
million tonnes, according to The International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For 2007, the world demand for refined copper is
expected to increase to 17.88 million tonnes.
By geography, eastern European countries accounted for the highest consumption of copper in 2005, 4.9 million tonnes or 29%.
Australia and Asia followed with a combined consumption of 28%, while Western Europe and North America accounted for
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
1000
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7000
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9/30/1997
4/30/199811/30
/1998
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1/31/2000
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/2
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2002
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/2002
7/31/20032/27/2004
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/2005
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2007
8/31/2007
Global Copper Demand Supply (mn tons)
0 2 4 6 8
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Production Consumption
21% and 14.8%, respectively. China accounted for approximately 85% of the total increase in copper consumption during
2000–05.
Although the US, the second biggest consumer of copper is showing signs of weakening nevertheless demand in Asian
economies, particularly China, is likely to remain the key growth driver of copper consumption worldwide. With the need for
new power infrastructure growing in China, investments in power generation and transmission facility upgrades have increased
significantly. Based on the current five-year plan, an incremental 215–245 gigawatt (GW) of generating capacity is expected to
be installed by 2010. Added to that, continued robust growth in industrial production which came at 17.4% year-on-year in
April 2007, may further drive copper demand. On top of that, huge economic activities currently being witnessed in the
developing economies of India, Brazil and Russia may also trigger copper demand.
Coming to supplies, major reserves of copper, as reported by the US Geological Survey (USGS), occur in Chile in Latin
America. At 150 million tonnes reported in 2006, Chile accounts for approximately 31.2% of the total reserves globally. The
US and Indonesia, each accounting for around 7.3% of the total copper reserves, occupy the second position. Other countries
with large copper reserves include Poland, Peru, Mexico and China. On a regional basis, Asia (accounting for 30% of total
global supply) is the largest producer of refined copper; China alone accounts for 13% of the production from this region. Next
is Latin America, which produces 25% of refined copper. It is followed by Western Europe and North America with shares of
11% and 12%, respectively.
Chart 2: (a) Copper Cash Prices; (b) Global Copper Demand and Supply
Source: Brook Hunt, Bloomberg, LME
During the 1990s, the development of new copper mines was put on hold, while some smelting facilities were closed due to
years of slow growth in demand, lower copper prices and high inventory levels. This resulted in supply deficit in all the years
since 2003. The supply deficit, estimated at 0.26 million tonnes in 2003, increased to 1.08 million tonnes in 2004, before
declining to 0.37 million tonnes in 2005 and 0.10 in 2006. In the first six months of 2007, supply deficit was 0.22 million tonnes.
In 2007 and beyond, further supply additions are likely to take place following increased interest among mining companies to
increase their exposure to copper. However factors such as frequent supply disruptions in key mining regions such as Peru, lag
in bringing new mines into production and long term concern over dearth of new world class mines (large), may fail to meet any
demand escalation in future. This can force the supply-demand balance to deficit again.
Although the demand-supply gap in 2005 was bridged by existing copper exchange inventories (both London Metal Exchange
and New York Commodity Exchange), the inventory levels hit a fresh low in 2006 and may be insufficient in meeting the
growing demand, going forward. Please note that copper is an internationally traded commodity on the London Metal Exchange
(LME), New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHME).
Copper prices have historically been cyclical and volatile on account of the demand and supply conditions and level of
speculation in the market. The price of copper averaged over US$1.00 per lb in the 1980s and 1990s and, with further ups and
downs, reached US$1.67 per lb in 2005. Prices scaled to a high of US$3.38 per lb in 2006. Copper prices then fell to a low of
US$2.37 per lb. in February 2007 on reports of rising copper exchange inventory levels. It should be noted that copper
inventories were at its lowest levels in the last seven years in 2006 and though inventory levels increased again at the end of
2006, it still remained near its historical low levels on an absolute basis. However, copper prices have rebounded on the back of
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Avg monthly price for Gold (US$/oz)
0
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-97
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increasing imports by China. Chinese imports of the metal increased by 110% to 1.11 million tonnes in the first seven months of
2007.
In future, we expect copper prices to remain robust in the near-to-medium term. Strong demand from emerging economies such
as, China and India is likely to push prices higher. In terms of supplies, although primary supply is expected to increase in
future, frequent supply shocks in key producing regions are likely to keep the inventory levels well below their normalized
levels, keeping copper market on an edge. In the long term, as the market reaches a demand-supply balance, copper prices are
expected to average around US$2 a lb, which is still high historically.
GOLD
Gold prices are benefiting from the strong physical demand, particularly from India and the Middle East, and increasing
investment demand due to higher inflation and weakening of the US dollar. In fact, the use of gold as an important investment
tool is breaking new grounds. Bullion prices are also likely to be supported by supply constraints due to reduced exploration
spending in the late 1990s, declining reserve grades, rising operating and finding & development (F&D) costs and increased dehedging
by mining companies. The average price of gold in 2006 was US$603.77/oz, a whopping 35.8% more than
US$444.45/oz, the average of 2005.Gold averaged US$666.84/oz in Q2 2007, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.23%.
Chart 3: Average Monthly Price of Gold 1997-2007*
Source: www.gold.org, Average monthly price for 2007* is up to the month of August
Robust Physical Demand
Gold is mainly used in jewelry, dentistry, and in the industrial sector, particularly in electronics. The underlying physical
demand for gold has remained robust for the past couple of years despite the substantial increase in bullion prices. The
surprisingly robust demand for this yellow metal from the physical sector is primarily driven by the ever-increasing demand for
jewelry and industrial fabrication.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global jewelry consumption was 2,707.2 tonnes in 2005. Demand for jewelry
dropped 15.8% to 2,279.1 tonnes in 2006 as higher volatility in gold prices in the first eight months of the year deterred
consumers from making purchases in countries such as Asia (excluding Japan) and the Middle East. Nevertheless, once
volatility subsided in late August, demand improved mid-September onward. For the first half of 2007, jewelry consumption
increased 22.4% year-on-year to 1237.0 tonnes on the back of increased demand from key gold markets—India, China, and the
Middle East—and normal price volatility. Demand in China was boosted in 2007 by the “Year of the Golden Pig” which the
Chinese believe to be an auspicious time to purchase gold. India, the largest gold consuming nation, bought 387.0 tonnes of
gold in H1 2007 (521.5 tonnes in 2006). It was followed by the Middle East and Greater China with 171.4 tonnes and 167.1
tonnes respectively. In value terms, jewelry consumption at US$44.2 billion in 2006 was 14.4% higher than the US$38.7 billion
consumption in 2005. For the first half of 2007, consumption increased 36.2% year-on-year to US$26.2 billion.
In 2006, the demand for gold in dental and industrial fabrications reached a new record of 452.0 tonnes. This was largely due to
the vibrant demand in the electronics sector (9% rise to 304.4 tonnes), attributable to the increasing popularity of consumer
goods containing electronic circuitry. Strong growth in global GDP, particularly in East Asia (including Japan) reflecting its
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
0
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Demand (tonnes)
0
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30
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60
Value (in bn US$)
Gold Value Physical demand
strong manufacturing base, and to a lesser extent in the US, also contributed to the growth in demand in 2006. The electronics
sector maintained the pace of growth in 2007 with gold demand increasing 2.3% year-on-year to 155.6 tonnes in the first half of
the year.
Chart 4: Gold Demand Trends (in volume and value)
Source: www.gold.org, Khandaker Research
Besides robust fabrication demand, de-hedging activities by gold producers also affected the demand/supply equation of the
yellow metal. Hedging by gold producers is generally classified as a source of supply. If companies decide to close out hedges
before they are due, they often end up buying gold from the open market and then use that to deliver into the hedges, adding to
the demand. According to the Gold Field Mineral Services (GFMS), at 369 tonnes, de-hedging by gold producers was
significantly higher in 2006 and continued in 2007 with net producer hedging standing at 162 tonnes at the end of the second
quarter.
Significant investment demand
Gold is increasingly favored as an important investment tool. During 2006, the investment demand for gold grew substantially
by 47.3% to US$12.5 billion from US$8.5 a year ago. Although this trend slightly reversed in the first half of 2007 (as demand
for jewelry accounted for most of the supply) the near term outlook remains robust. The historically close inverse relationship
between gold prices and the US dollar is one of the main drivers stimulating investment demand for gold. Investors use gold to
hedge against any decline in the value of the US dollar. As the dollar continues to weaken against major currencies over
concerns related to burgeoning deficits, inflationary pressure and expectations of a soft landing of the economy, the demand for
bullion is expected to rise higher. Prevailing political uncertainties and threats of terrorism also add to the investment demand
for gold. No wonder, the central banks of most countries continue to maintain gold reserves for the purpose of economic
security. According to the WGC, the official gold holdings of all the central banks across the world stood at an astounding
30,374 tonnes in Q2 2007. The increasing inclination of institutional investors toward investing in commodities coupled with
the rising popularity of gold ETFs is contributing to the investment demand.
Another key point that warrants attention is China’s over US$1 trillion-plus foreign exchange reserves. The world’s largest
emerging economy has gold reserves of only 600 tonnes, which according to a latest release by the WGC, represents a mere
1.1% of the country’s total foreign reserve. In contrast, most European nations hold about 15% of total reserves in gold. The
depreciation of the US dollar has resulted in the devaluation of China’s foreign currency reserve. As a result, the country is
planning to adopt a foreign reserve diversification strategy – swapping dollars for gold. In addition, China recently passed a
legislation allowing its four major commercial banks to sell gold bars to their customers in the near future.
Supply constraints expected to keep prices up
The three main sources of gold are mines (primary supply), official sector sales and recycled metal. Secondary supply of gold
from central banks (official sector sales) and scrap accounts for a smaller proportion of total annual supply. Weak gold prices
during the 1980s and 1990s led to a slowdown in exploration by gold producers. This is because companies usually cut down on
fresh investments in discovery and exploration during such testing times. During this phase, several mines were closed due to
abysmally low margins that rendered projects uneconomical.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Supply Break-up Q2 2007
Mine Supply
Official
Sector Sales
Scrap Gold
0
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Mine Supply Official Sector
Sales
Scrap Gold Total Supply
Q2 2006 Q2 2007
Chart 5: Supply Break-up (in tonnes)
Source: World Gold Council
Eventually, in 2006, the global production of gold from mines declined 2.9% to 2,475 tonnes—the second-lowest in 10 years
after 2004—compared to the demand of approximately 3,362 tonnes. However, mine production in Q2 2007 was 3.2% higher
than that in Q2 2006 due to the increased supply from China and Indonesia which offset the reduced output from the Yanacocha
mine in Peru. We must note that it is difficult for gold producers to substantially increase production, since increasing the
supply of gold is a costly and lengthy process unlike other commodities.
Official sector sales were up 17.4% in H1 2007 compared to the year-ago period, driven by heavy selling from certain
signatories to the Washington Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA 2), including Spain, European Bank, Switzerland, and
France. According to the WGC, official sales up to August 9, 2007, amounted to about 400 tonnes, the annual limit being 500
tonnes which ends in September 26, 2007. These sales offset the reduced scrap sales which decreased by 90 tonnes or 27.5%
year-on-year in Q2 2007 due to a decline in the quantity of jewelry sold back.
Increased consolidation activity
The current momentum in the metal business has boosted consolidation as reflected in the completion of a number of mega
deals in 2006. In the copper industry, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX: NYSE) paid US$25.9 billion to acquire
Phelps Dodge Corp., creating the world's largest publicly traded copper producer. Phelps Dodge’s operations span the globe and
the company is currently working on an US$850-million expansion project at its Cerro Verde mine in Peru. Recently, Lundin
Mining Corp. (LMC: AMEX; LUN: TSX), a miner of metals in Europe, agreed to acquire Tenke Mining Corp. for about
US$1.26 billion. Tenke Mining owns about a quarter of the Tenke Fungurume copper and cobalt deposits in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC).
Rising commodity prices triggered a mad rush among cash-rich mining companies to increase their resource base. This was
evident with the US$19.4 billion all-cash acquisition of Inco Limited by Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO: NYSE) in October
2006. The acquisition propelled Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) to the fourth largest mining company (by way of
revenue and market capitalization) and the world’s largest nickel producer. In the race to acquire Inco, CVRD beat Teck
Cominco Limited (TCK: NYSE, TCK.A and TCK.B: TSX) which had earlier attempted a hostile takeover of Inco in May 2006
for US$16 billion. Interestingly, Phelps Dodge was also in the race to acquire Inco and had made a combined offer of US$40
billion for acquiring Inco and Falconbridge. However, the offer was withdrawn because of the failure of the Inco-Falconbridge
merger. Xstrata Plc (XTA: LON), which already owned a 20% share in Falconbridge, acquired the remaining 80% in late
August 2006 at a price of C$62.50 per share.
Coming to gold, in September 2006, Goldcorp Inc. (GG: NYSE) – the third-largest gold producer in North America – agreed to
buy Glamis Gold for about US$8.6 billion. The deal is expected to create one of the world’s largest producers of gold. In
November 2006, IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG: NYSE), the world’s tenth-largest gold miner, acquired Cambior Inc. in a C$3
billion transaction. This made IAG a leading mid-tier gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration
activities throughout the American and African continents.
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This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Properties
Globex has a diversified portfolio of exploration and development properties in North America. The company owns
approximately 80 properties, most of which are located in Quebec, Canada, and are largely concentrated in the Abitibi
Greenstone Belt. Quebec is one of the most attractive mining destinations in the world, thanks to the immense mineral potential
and investment friendly tax laws. The province even offers 42% cash rebate on exploration expenditure. Additionally, the
company’s properties are located in Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia in Canada as well as in Nevada, Washington,
and Tennessee in the US. Globex’s property portfolio consists of a variety of metals including zinc, copper, gold, silver,
uranium, molybdenum, nickel, platinum, palladium, magnesium, and talc. We limit our discussion to a few key projects that are
nearing production and/or are being currently focused upon by the company.
Picture 1: Globex Properties Location Map
Source: Company
The Abitibi Greenstone Belt is one of the largest Archean greenstone belts in the world, measuring approximately 300 km
north-south and 400–450 km east-west in Ontario and Quebec. It is a highly mineralized corridor hosting numerous gold and
base metal deposits. The Quebec side of the region, where Globex owns the bulk of its properties, has produced more than 65
million oz of gold, 3.25 millions tonnes of copper, 4 millions tonnes of zinc, and over 240 millions oz of silver. The values of
metal production from various mining hubs in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt are US$20.9 billion in the Noranda Mining Camp,
US$10.4 billion in the Cadillac Camp, US$3.8 billion in the Malartic Camp, and US$11.9 billion in the Val d’Or Camp.
One of the important projects located in this region is the Aurizon Mines Ltd. (ARZ: TSX) operated Casa Berardi Project,
which commenced commercial production in the second quarter of 2007. The Casa Berardi Project is situated 95 km north of
the town of La Sarre in the Abitibi region. The mine has produced a total of 49,744 ounces of gold so far and is expected to
produce approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold (at 93.8% recovery) over an initial mining life of six years. The Casa Berardi
project has proven and probable (2P) reserves of 4.713 million tonnes of ore grading an average 7.7 g/t Au that translates into
1.169 million ounces of gold. Additionally, the measured, indicated, and inferred (M+I+I) resources are 1.586 million ounces of
gold.
Other mineral deposits in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt are the LaRonde Extension, Lapa, and Goldex gold deposits (nearproduction
deposits) operated by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM: TSX, NYSE). Additionally, Osisko Exploration Ltd.
(OSK: TSX-V) recently announced an inferred resource of 8.4 millions oz of gold at its Canadian Malartic gold deposit.
Fabie Bay and Magusi River – Polymetallic property
Fabie Bay and Magusi River are two adjacent VMS deposits located within a property covering approximately 2,873 hectares in
the Hebecourt, Montbray and Duprat Townships, Quebec. The property consists of 73 claims and is situated 35 km northwest of
Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, and 11 km east of the Ontario-Quebec boundary. The Fabie Bay and Magusi River deposits are
located in the southwestern portion of the Abitibi Greenstone Belt. The Fabie Bay deposit is composed essentially of massive,
fine grained pyrrhotite disseminations and finely banded chalcopyrite and pyrite. The Magusi River deposit represents
auriferous zinc-rich VMS mineralization. Both deposits have witnessed intermittent exploration activity since 1948. The
property was purchased and staked by Globex in 2002 and then optioned to First Metals Inc. (FMA: TSX) in April 2006. Under
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This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
the terms of the option agreement, Globex is entitled to receive C$1 million, 10% of the issued share capital of First Metals, a
2% NMR, and a 10% net profit royalty (post the recovery of the C$10 million project capital cost). Production from both
deposits is projected to begin in 2008.
Picture 2: Fabie Bay and Magusi River Map
Source: Company
Fabie Bay copper deposit
Fabie Bay is primarily a copper deposit with an NI 43-101 inferred mineral resource of 672,800 tonnes grading 2.77% copper.
The deposit is located at the northern limit of what is known as the Noranda camp. The Noranda Camp has historically
produced copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver from 21 deposits that, combined, total 103 million tonnes of massive sulphide
mineralization. Fabie Bay has been developed extensively by previous miners. Previous development work of C$10 million has
been carried out on the property area. In fact, Noranda Mines Limited even built a production ramp at the bottom of the 500 feet
deep ore block. First Metals has given a contract to Xstrata Copper Canada (Xstrata) to mill ore from the deposit at Xstrata’s
Horne mill in Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec (35 km southeast of the property). The company has drilled about 80,000 tonnes from
open-pit mining, which represents an initial feed of two months. Production is expected to commence by Q1 2008, on the
completion of the refurbishment of the mill. Simultaneously, the company is working on upgrading the NI 43-101 compliant 2P
resource of the deposit.
Magusi River
The Magusi River deposit is an advanced-stage exploration target, located approximately 1.2 km to the west of the Fabie Bay
deposit. The deposit is primarily a zinc-and-copper-rich area but also contains gold and silver. The NI 43-101 inferred resource
estimates for two distinct zinc and copper zones within the deposit are shown below. It represents a resource base of 197 million
lb of zinc, 71 million lb of copper, 80,000 oz of gold, and 2.2 million oz of silver. First Metals is in the process of conducting
additional work on the deposit (2,000 meters of diamond drilling) and starting production by the end of 2008.
Table 1: Fabie Bay and Magusi River Inferred Resource Estimates
Source: Technical Report
First Metals is quickly moving the project towards production. All the necessary infrastructure such as power lines, offices,
bridges, and road improvements have been completed. Globex is therefore set to benefit from the royalty payments and share
investments that would be accretive with production. First Metal’s issued capital is C$29.70 million (at current market price).
Deposit Tonnes Grade
Cu (%) Zn (%) Au (g/t) Ag (g/t)
Fabie Bay 672,800 2.77 - - -
Deposit Tonnes Grade
Magusi River Zn (%) Cu (%) Au (g/t) Ag (g/t)
Zinc-rich zone 1,230,000 7.1 0.4 1.89 29.0
Copper-rich zone 838,860 0.3 3.3 0.22 39.1
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
This is slated to increase once production begins. Globex’s share investment in the company at 10% of the issued capital works
out to be C$2.97 million with significant upside potential. Globex has received C$587,980 as option income from the project as
of FY06.
Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine (MTZ) – Escalates exposure to zinc
Globex holds a royalty interest in a potentially large zinc property in Tennessee, USA. The company holds 640,000 shares (and
an additional 60,000 warrants) of Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation (SRZ: TSX), a Canada-based junior mining
company which owns and operates the MTZ project in Central Tennessee, USA. Additionally, the company has royalty rights
(gross overriding royalty) on production from the facility. As such, on every pound produced at a prevailing market price of
US$1.10/lb and above, the company earns a royalty at the rate of 1.4%. Production is expected to commence by the first quarter
of 2008, thereby generating a steady stream of revenues for Globex.
The MTZ project is located approximately 50 miles east of the city of Nashville, Tennessee. MTZ is actually a 10,572-acre
historic mining complex consisting of five underground zinc mines, namely, Elmwood, Gordonsville, Carthage, Stonewall, and
Cumberland, and also houses the Gordonsville concentrator. The project area is easily accessible by the Louisville and
Nashville Railroad and has all the necessary infrastructure including skilled manpower, power, highways, and even the
Nashville airport.
Mineralization in Central Tennessee is associated with sediments (limestone and shale) that occurred in the Ordovician to the
Mississippian period, i.e., nearly 300 to 400 million years ago. The MTZ project mainly targets the Knox Group, which is a
3,000 ft thick Cambro-Ordovician carbonate sequence. Mineralization in the project area is considered to be similar to that of
the Mississippi Valley type deposits, which are known to host the largest amount of lead and zinc in the world. These deposits
are typically epigenetic, low temperature, stratabound deposits of galena, sphalerite, pyrite, and marcasite along with dolomite,
calcite, and quartz gangue. While zinc is the primary metal of interest in the MTZ project, lead in the form of galena, is also
found in minor quantities.
Picture 3: MTZ Mine Map
Source: Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation
The MTZ project has a rich mining history of 29 years from 1975 to 2003. During this period, the 37.9 million tonnes of ore
grading 3.3% zinc was mined, producing over 2.3 billion pounds of zinc. However, mining activity was stalled in 2003 due to
low zinc prices. In 2006, encouraged by strong zinc prices, Strategic Resource Acquisition Corporation (SRA) appointed Watts,
Griffis and McOuat Limited (WGM) to conduct independent NI 43-101 compliant resource estimates on the project. The results
are as follows: WGM estimated indicated mineral resources (at a cut-off grade of 2%) of 12.47 million tonnes grading 3.35%
zinc and inferred resources of 16.65 million tonnes at 3.43% zinc.
SRA is currently expediting the project to commence production from the first quarter of 2008. In May 2007, SRA completed
an initial public of approximately C$112 million in shares and units to fully fund the start-up of the operations. The company is
well on track to complete the refurbishment and procurement of equipment along with dewatering and rehabilitation of the
mines. The Gordonsville concentrator is being refurbished to process maximum 8,000 tonnes of ore per day (tpd).
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Table 2: MTZ Project Resource Estimates
Source: MTZ Technical Report
The MTZ project represents a strategic investment for Globex. The company owns 640,000 shares of SRA. At a current market
price of C$4.52 per share, this translates into an investment of C$2.89 million. The value is expected to appreciate further as the
project enters production. It is also worthwhile mentioning here that Globex holds 60,000 warrants of SRA. Moreover, the
company would earn significant income by way of royalty. Globex retains a 1.4% gross overriding royalty on all zinc
production at a LME zinc price at or above US$1.10/lb or 1% on all zinc production at a price between US$0.90/lb and
US$1.09/lb. It would be important to note that zinc is currently trading at US$1.26/lb. Zinc is mainly used for galvanizing steel
in order to protect it from corrosion. Price for the metal has continuously strengthened over the past five years on the back of
increasing demand from China and is expected to remain buoyant in the near term.
Russian Kid gold property – High grade gold potential
Russian Kid is an advanced-stage gold project which is expected to be online by 2008. Globex purchased the property in 2003
from KPMG Inc. The property was previously owned by Dassen Gold Resources Ltd., which went into bankruptcy in 2000, and
KPMG was appointed as the official liquidator. Globex (100% owner) optioned the property to Rocmec Mining Inc. (RMI:
TSX-V) in July 2006 for a consideration of C$700,000 and 1,750,000 shares in Rocmec. Additionally, the company is likely to
receive a 5% NMR royalty for the first 25,000 ounces of gold produced and 3% on subsequent gold production.
Russian Kid comprises 11 contiguous claims covering 83.32 hectares of the Dasserat Township, Quebec. It is approximately
35.4 km to the west of Rouyn-Noranda and is accessible through a 10-mile long gravel road from paved highway 117 near the
Quebec-Ontario boundary. Dasserat Township is situated near the southern edge of the Abitibi Greenstone Belt volcanics. The
Russian Kid property is underlain principally by Archean rock units. Gold mineralization on the property occurs principally in
quartz and quartz-pyrite veins usually up to 90 cm thick. These weakly pyritized veins occasionally contain chalcopyrite or
visible gold. Silver found in these veins is of lower grades, generally four to five times inferior to those of gold.
Picture 4: Russian Kid Location Map
Source: Russian Kid Technical Report, 2007
The longest known gold formation on the property is the McDowell vein. Historical production mainly came from the ore
extracted from this vein by El Coco in 1981. The McDowell vein along with the West McDowell and Russian Kid veins is
Category Tonnes (million) Zinc (%)
Indicated Mineral Resources - Surface Drilling 9.75 3.37
Indicated Mineral Resources - Underground Sampling 2.72 3.29
Total Indicated 12.47 3.35
Inferred Mineral Resources - Surface Drilling 16.65 3.43
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
considered to be the principal vein system and represents over 39% of the existing mineral resources. It measures 3,080 feet
with an average width of nearly 3.7 feet and has returned gold grades up to 0.35 oz/t in previous explorations. The other major
veins are Talus and Beaudoin.
The property has been explored since the 1920s with more than 30,000 meters of diamond drilling being conducted until 1983.
No work was conducted on the property after 1986. While all the infrastructure has been dismantled, an existing 844-meter
ramp, which provides access to three underground levels at 45, 90 and 130 meters, has been retained. In March 1984,
engineering firm Asselin, Benoit, Boucher, Ducharme, Lapointe, Inc (now Tecsult Group) submitted a feasibility study of the
property. The study stated a non NI 43-101 resource of 1,124,532 tonnes of ore grading 0.247 oz/t gold. The prospectivity was
confirmed in the latest NI 43-101 compliant resource estimates made by Systeme Geostat International Inc in March 2007. At a
cut off grade of 0.1 g/t, the calculation shows a total Measured, Indicated and Inferred (M+I+I) resource of 2,771,800 tonnes
(almost twice the tonnage calculated historically) containing 543,450 ounces of gold.
Table 3: Russian Kid Gold Resource Estimates
Source: Russian Kid Technical Report, 2007
Rocmec has commenced initial production from the Russian Kid gold property as part of its sampling program. Ore is being
extracted from the McDowell and Talus veins using thermal fragmentation and conventional mining methods, and the ore is
transported daily to a smelter owned by Xstrata Copper in Rouyn-Noranda. Rocmec plans to transport 150 tonnes of ore per day
for processing at the Horne smelter. Please note that, as per the agreement, Globex is entitled to a 5% NMR for the first 25,000
ounces produced and 3% thereafter.
Normetal Zinc Mine Project
Globex is focusing on what could be a potential blue-sky project, at the wholly owned Normetal Mine. The Normetal Mine,
located at Normetal, Quebec, was once the third largest sulphide deposit in the Abitibi region and produced over 10 million
tonnes of copper and zinc ore from 1937 to 1975. However, mining at that time was concentrated only on the copper rich zones
whereas zinc rich zones were not mined due to the absence of zinc refining capabilities nearby and low zinc prices.
Previous work conducted on the property suggested high-grade zinc and copper mineralization. Results from four historic drill
holes completed in 1987 into the Normetal Mine crown pillar are shown below.
Table 4: Normetal Mine Historical Drill Results
Source: Company
These values and an initial geological evaluation encouraged Globex to commission the study of the first 610 vertical meters of
the mine. The study results warranted an initial drilling program of 18 targeted drill holes totaling approximately 8,500 meters.
Globex intends to commence drilling on the target as soon as a drill becomes available. The principal target will be zinc rich
zones which are not reported to have been mined previously.
Cut-off
Grade Measured Category Indicated Category Inferred Category
(g/t) Tonnes Grade (g/t) Ounces Tonnes Grade (g/t) Ounces Tonnes Grade (g/t) Ounces
3.0 91,600 6.72 19,800 274,200 6.37 56,100 955,200 10.37 318,450
0.1 107,800 6.06 21,000 414,000 4.92 65,550 2,250,000 6.32 456,900
Intercept Length True Width Cu (%) Zn (%) Au (oz/t) Ag (oz/t)
12.80 m 11.90 m 3.05 24.17 0.043 -
including 5.19 m 15.16
11.90 m 10.50 m 1.69 17.05 0.024 3.41
including 1.32 m of ground core, assigned a value of 0 in the grade calculation
9.46 m 8.32 m 0.38 27.09 0.055 4.31
8.28 m 7.58 m - 10.92 - 5.84
including 4.77 m 0.17
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Wood-Pandora JV Project
The Wood-Pandora JV project is located in Cadillac Township, Quebec, approximately 55 km to the east of Rouyn-Noranda
and 470 km to the northwest of Montreal. The project is a JV between Globex and Queenston Mining Inc. (QMI: TSX) wherein
both the partners have a 50:50 share in ownership and project expenditures. The JV project is operated by Globex. The property
covers 3.5 km of the Cadillac Break in the Bousquet-Cadillac gold camp and consists of 28 mineral claims and one mining
concession.
The project area hosts five gold zones, which from east to west are the Amm Shaft Zone, the No. 3 Shaft Zone, the Ironwood
Zone, the Wood Cadillac Zone, and the Central Cadillac Zone. Except for the Ironwood Zone, which is new discovery, four
zones have a past production of nearly 150,000 ounces of gold. The Wood-Pandora property is located 5.5 kms to the east of the
La Ronde Mine owned by Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM: TSX). The La Ronde Mine has produced more than 2.9 million
ounces of gold and has gold reserves of 5.3 million ounces. Agnico-Eagle operated Lapa gold deposit, with probable reserves of
1.1 million ounces of gold, lies 2.5 kms to the east of the Wood-Pandora property.
The Wood-Pandora property is underlain by sediments of the Cadillac and Pontiac Groups and volcanics of the Piche Group.
The Cadillac Break occupies the Piche Group, creating deformation in the volcanic rocks that occasionally is evident in the
adjacent sediments. Gold mineralization is associated with the Cadillac Break. The gold deposits are of the quartz vein type that
generally consists of quartz carbonate veins, disseminations, and replacements in shear zones and related structures. The first
gold discovery on the JV property was made in the 1920s. The historical mineral resource estimates for the Wood-Cadillac and
the Central-Cadillac zones are 177,400 oz and 64,475 oz of gold respectively.
During 2004-06, the JV drilled a total of 19 holes in the gold zones along the Cadillac Break. Five holes were drilled in the
Break between the No. 3 shaft and the Wood Cadillac shaft. The drilling program returned encouraging results: 6.0 g/t of gold
over 3.1 meters (m), 6.1 g/t of gold over 5.1 m, and 8.5 g/t of gold over 28.5 m
Picture 5: Wood-Pandora JV Map
Source: Company
The Ironwood Zone was discovered by the JV in early 2006 while testing for an electromagnetic anomaly. The mineralization at
the zone consists of disseminated to semi-massive sulphides with visible gold in a banded-magnetite iron formation. The
Ironwood Zone extends over a length of 75 m to a depth of 250 m and remains open at depth. In 2006, 26 holes were drilled at
the zone of which 23 reported significant mineralization results as follows: 10.5 g/t of gold over 11.0 m, 8.5 g/t of gold over
11.1 m, and 27.2 g/t of gold over 5.2 m.
As part of the ongoing drilling program, the JV drilled seven holes on the Central Cadillac property and four (including one hole
extension) on the Wood property, especially in the Ironwood Zone. On the Central Cadillac property, the JV discovered several
areas of intense alteration and intersected low grade gold values which warrant follow-up drilling. In the Ironwood Zone, a total
of 2,497 meters of drilling has been completed. While two deep holes drilled in the zone failed to intersect the host iron
formation (which is attributed to folding or faulting), one hole on the Wood property intersected a core length of 2.13 m grading
7.63 g/t gold. The JV plans to commission a NI 43-101 report on the Ironwood Zone and take the prospect to an advanced
exploration stage.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Rousseau Gold Mine, LaSarre, Quebec
The Rousseau property is located 23 km northeast of the city of LaSarre and 110 km to the north of Rouyn-Noranda. Based on a
historical mineral reserve estimate, the mine has 2P reserves of 39,600 tonnes at 13.7 g/t of gold. Globex has optioned the
Rousseau Township gold property to Consolidated Big Valley Resources (now Gold Bullion Development Corp.) for C$65,000,
100,000 shares, a 6% NMR, and a minimum C$30,000 per year NMR. Gold Bullion Development Corp expects to put the gold
mine into production. Globex will be eligible to earn royalty revenue from mineral production once the Rousseau Mine goes
into production.
The property was worked upon for the first time in the year 1929 by Teck Huges Gold Mines. International Standard Resources
drilled 14 holes on the Principal and Mercier Veins in the year 1979. The company collected two bulk samples from the surface
at the Principal Vein. The first sample had a grading of 28 tonnes at 23.9 g/t of gold and 201.8 g/t of silver, and the second
sample had a grading of 12.8 tonnes at 6.2 g/t of gold and 29.1 g/t of silver. In the year 1982, a mill with a processing capacity
of 150 tonnes per day was installed at the site and a total of 500 tonnes of ore was processed. Two drilling campaigns were
carried out on the property between the years 1988 and 1989 with 1500 meters of drilling on each of them.
Gold Bullion Development Corp. has obtained a certificate from the Quebec Department of Sustainable Development
Environment and Parks, authorizing it to extract a 40,000-tonne bulk sample from the underground workings of the Rousseau
gold deposit. The company also intends to resample the underground workings and develop a mine to extract up to 40,000
metric tonnes of mill feed. The feed will be processed at the company’s Granada Mine and Mill site.
Other Properties
In addition to the projects discussed above, the company is looking at developing some of its other properties. While it is clear
that the company has enough exposure to zinc, it is also concurrently setting its eyes on magnesium. The company’s wholly
owned magnesium-talc property in the Deloro Township in Ontario is a large body target of over 100 million tonnes of
magnesite, talc, and quartz. Approximately 96,000 tonnes of magnesium and magnesium alloy is planned to be produced
annually from the project. Magnesium is in demand especially from the automotive sector. The demand at present is mainly met
through imports from China. Globex believes that the Deloro project would help it produce magnesium at significantly low
costs and tap the domestic Canadian and the US market. Globex is currently trying to arrange funds for conducting a bankable
feasibility study. The company is looking for a financial and/or technical partner to help carry the project forward.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Financial Forecast and Analysis
SUMMARY
We valued Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX: TSX; G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin, Munich, Xetra, and GLBXF:
OTCQX) using two methods – the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach and the Market Capitalization method. To arrive at
the price target, we used the weighted average of the fair values obtained from the two valuation methodologies in the ratio of
30:70. This resulted in a 12–18 month target price of C$7.34. The current price of the stock is C$4.39.
DCF Approach
W have based our DCF model solely on the royalty income that Globex is expected to earn from three properties (of the
approximately 80 in the company’s portfolio) that are slated to come online in 2008. These are the Fabie Bay and Magusi River
polymetallic property, the Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine (MTZ), and the Russian Kid gold property. All of them have National
Instrument NI 43-101 resources determined on them. Globex is entitled to earn NMR income from each of these properties once
they start producing.
We have not valued the remaining approximately 77 properties which are in the early to intermediate stages of exploration. As
and when these properties are developed to resource estimation stages, we will revise our valuation estimates accordingly.
For the purpose of valuation, we used the NI 43-101 resource estimates for each of the three properties. We further assumed
yearly production targets to arrive at the mining life of each project. Furthermore, we made the following assumptions to
estimate the revenue from each project.
• Recovery rate from production is likely to be 90%.
• Average combined grade from various estimates (as per NI 43-101) has been taken to derive actual metal extracted.
• We have taken copper price at US$3.00/lb and gold at US$625/oz. Zinc prices have been taken as follows:
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1.52 1.15 0.79 0.72 0.74 0.74
Furthermore, after multiplying the expected royalty rate with the estimated revenue from each project, we arrived at the total
royalty income that the company would be earning annually. We then used a discount factor of 17.8% (based on a risk-free rate
of 4.28%, risk premium of 7.02%, and beta of 1.93 to arrive at the Net Present Value of future cash flows—C$13.29 million. To
this, we added Globex’s existing cash balance (including cash for flow-through expenditure) and remaining cash payments from
the options agreement with First Metals Inc. (FMA: TSX). The company recently closed a private placement of C$4 million
which further increased the cash balance. We also determined and added the current value of the shares held by Globex in the
respective companies operating the aforementioned projects. By doing this, we arrived at a fair value of C$1.44 per share.
Market Capitalization Method
The DCF approach is limited only to royalty income from the three properties that are quickly moving toward production.
Therefore, in order to assign a value to the properties in its portfolio, we have used the market capitalization approach. For this,
we added the NI 43-101 resource estimates for the aforementioned three properties and historical resource estimates for five
other important projects that the company is currently looking at. We assume these projects to represent a ball park resource
base for the entire project portfolio of Globex. We have considered zinc as the base resource and calculated the market
capitalization/lb of zinc for several base and precious metal companies that are either in the same stage of development as
Globex or are actually producing. Our analysis indicates that companies with base and precious metal mines/properties have an
average market capitalization of C$0.05/lb of zinc.
© Khandaker Partners. All rights reserved. The information and data contained herein is not warranted or represented to be accurate and complete.
This report is intended for US residents and for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice or solicitation to buy or sell any
Security.
Market Capitalization/lb
0.03 0.03 0.02
0.06
0.10
0.05
Wes tern
Keltic M ines
Inc .
Canadian
Z inc
Corporation
Yuk on Z inc
Corporation
Z incore
Metals Inc .
Redc orp
Ventures
Ltd.
Av erage
Chart 6: Comparative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg, Khandaker Research
By multiplying the total resource of 3668 million lbs on major properties with an average market capitalization of C$0.05/lb of
zinc, Globex’s market capitalization works out to be C$172.54 million or C$9.87 per share. We assigned a greater weight (70%)
to the value derived by this method to find a 12-18 month target price for the stock.
Conclusion
Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX: TSX; G1M: Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin, Munich, Xetra, and GLBXF: OTCQX) appears
to be an attractive investment avenue for investors keen on benefiting from the strength in metal prices. The company is well
placed to receive royalties from three advanced-stage projects – Fabie Bay-Magusi River, Middle Tennessee Zinc Mine, and
Russian Kid – which are slated to come online in early 2008. This is expected to drive the value of the stock in the near term.
We expect Globex’s stock price to reach the target of C$7.34, at a corresponding market capitalization of C$128.32 million
over our 12–18 month investment horizon. We will further revise our valuation estimates based on any new developments made
on the remaining (approximately 77) properties in Globex’s portfolio.

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.801.762 von Elvis77 am 18.12.07 13:10:31

Der Zinkpreis macht mir auch am meisten Bauchweh. Kürzlich habe ich gelesen, dass in den vergangenen Monaten der Preis auch nach unten gegangen sein soll, weil China den Export signifikant erhöhnt habe. Dies sei jedoch nur von kurzer Dauer gewesen und aktuell wieder auf Normalmass. Andererseits sei die Nachfrage nach Zink in China nachwievor ungebremst hoch und steigend. Ich kenne die Situation für Indien nicht, könnte mir aber vorstellen, dass die Nachfrage ebenfalls steigend sein könnte.

Die Lagerbestände sind in den letzten Jahren drastisch zurückgegangen und befinden sich heute - trotz Alimentierung von neuen Zinkminen - aller andere als auf "Wohlfühl-Niveau".

Bei einer sich Anbahnenden Rezession in den USA frage ich mich, ob sie die gleichen Auswirkungen auf die übrige Weltwirtschaft haben wird wie dies in vergangenen Zeiten der Fall war oder ob die neuen Lokomotiven China und Indien einen nicht unwesentlichen Ausgleich schaffen würden.

Ich kenne mich da zuwenig aus und wäre froh um Statements zu den Rezessionsbefürchtungen und Entwicklung der Lagerbestände.

Gruss William Tell

[WilliamTell]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.799.831 von fitforsmile am 18.12.07 10:42:19

Besten Dank für Deinen Einsatz für die News von First Metals.

Der Link zu diesen News wurde zwar gestern kurz nach 17h schon reingestellt, ist aber anlässlich des heftigen Gewitters einwenig untergegangen. Deine Intervention bietet eine Gelegenheit, etwas näher darauf einzugehen.

Das Vorgehen von First Metals ist üblich bei vielen, wenn nicht bei den meisten Explorern.

First Metals geht nun in Fabie Bay in Produktion und wird in Kürze Cash generieren. Doch anstelle zu warten, bis der Cash da ist, wird ein PP vom Stapel gelassen und für die Aktionäre eine Verwässerung des Aktienkapitals herbeigeführt.

Magusi River läuft nicht davon und wäre hier Jack Stoch der CEO, dann hätte diese Verwässerung nicht oder mindestens nicht in diesem Ausmass stattgefunden.

Zu Recht hat der Markt das Vorgehen von First Metals gestern in brutalster Weise abgestraft und liess den Kurs von 0.90 auf 0.70 in die tiefst gelegenen Katakomben absacken.

Gruss William Tell

[Elvis77]

Ich denke das gefährlichste Szenario für Globex bleiben die Preise für Zink und Kupfer.
Zwar ist der Dollarkurs nicht minder gefährlich, aber da sollte der größte Rutsch fürs erste gesehen worden sein.

Zink und Kupfer wird allerdings nur von sehr wenigen Analysten positiv gesehen.
Bei Kupfer ist man sich bis auf wenige Außnahmen einig, das der Preis abkühlt (auch wenn Globex das etwas anders darstellt).
Allerdings hatte ich mal eine Kalkulation des Fabie Bay Projekts gesehen, bei der ein massiver Preisrückgang bereits einkalkuliert wurde und die Mine trotzdem profitabel bleibt.

Zink ist da für Globex gefährlicher. Dieses Jahr haben sich die Bestände leicht erholt.
2007 werden 15 große Zinkminen in Produktion gehen und es wird mit einer Ausweitung des Angebotes von 10% gerechnet, gegenüber einer Nachfrageerhöhung von 4,x% (und das auch nur, sofern keine Rezession kommt.

Wir sind momentan schon relativ dicht an einem Zinkpreis, der Globex NetMetall Royalties der Tennessee Zinkmine von 1,4% auf 1% abschmelzen würde. Vor kurzem Stand Zink noch bei 1,60 pro Pfund, jetzt bei 1,16. Bei 1,10 ist die Grenze. Ab 0,9 gibt es aus diesem Projekt gar kein Geld mehr.

Ich sage das nicht wiederholt um Angst zu schüren, aber dies ist in meinen Augen für das nächste Jahr das größte Risiko für die Globexaktie dessen man sich voll bewusst sein sollte, weil dieses Projekt für das nächste Jahr das wertvollste sein sollte, was Cash anbelangt.
Für kurz-mittelfristige Engagements sollte man sich also meiner Meinung nach die Zeit nehmen und sich eine eigene Meinung über den Zinkpreis bilden.
Das der aktuelle Kurs die ganzen Projekte die momentan noch nicht in Produktion gehen überhaupt nicht berücksichtigt, bietet hingegen einen gewissen Schutz.

[089MUC]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.801.012 von stocker33 am 18.12.07 12:12:23

ist doch verständlich, wenn er short ist...

[Mommax]

Hallo Urpferdchen!
dieser Bericht wurde schon um 7:13 Uhr von User SKGold hier im thread reingestellt völlig kostenlos. Ich bin der Meinung dass ein Börsenbrief der mit updates arbeitet und viel Geld von den Abonnenten verlangt etwas flotter sein könnte.Bei Mustang habe ich vor einigen Wochen dasselbe beobachtet.
Trotzdem danke für DEINE Mühe den Bericht allen zur Verfügung zu stellen.
Gruß Mommax