Franz & Friends Reloaded (Seite 1053)
eröffnet am 17.08.12 11:37:05 von
neuester Beitrag 28.04.24 21:48:24 von
neuester Beitrag 28.04.24 21:48:24 von
Beiträge: 24.620
ID: 1.176.212
ID: 1.176.212
Aufrufe heute: 1
Gesamt: 967.958
Gesamt: 967.958
Aktive User: 0
Top-Diskussionen
| Titel | letzter Beitrag | Aufrufe |
|---|---|---|
| gestern 18:44 | 863 | |
| 01.05.24, 18:36 | 443 | |
| heute 00:19 | 260 | |
| 08.02.11, 16:09 | 162 | |
| gestern 22:01 | 160 | |
| heute 00:32 | 158 | |
| gestern 22:58 | 158 | |
| gestern 23:17 | 146 |
Meistdiskutierte Wertpapiere
| Platz | vorher | Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % | Anzahl | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 1. | 17.936,50 | +0,21 | 210 | |||
| 2. | 2. | 180,01 | +0,01 | 104 | |||
| 3. | 3. | 8,6400 | +4,22 | 85 | |||
| 4. | 4. | 0,0164 | +0,61 | 75 | |||
| 5. | 7. | 1,0000 | +3,63 | 42 | |||
| 6. | 6. | 2.305,09 | +0,06 | 41 | |||
| 7. | 8. | 6,7280 | +0,81 | 38 | |||
| 8. | 5. | 3,8775 | +5,01 | 34 |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Feedback
Toller Beitrag über die Situation bei den Frackern und anderen Drecksunternehmen. Denen bleibe jetzt die Luft weg. Das Geld fließt nicht mehr und viele können ihren Drecksladen zumachen oder werden übernommen. Ist die Frage, wie lange die OPEC noch den Daumen drauf hat.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2828756-money-dries-up-for-o…
Wolf Richter, TESTOSTERONE PIT (128 clicks)
Long/short equity, special situations, contrarian, debt
Profile| Send Message|
Follow (176 followers)
Money Money Up For Oil And Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start
Jan. 18, 2015 6:29 AM ET | 57 comments | Includes: CRC, HAL, HERO, HK, HP, NE, OXY, PGN, SFY, SLB, SU, UNG, USO
When money was growing on trees even for junk-rated companies, and when Wall Street still performed miracles for a fee, thanks to the greatest credit bubble in US history, oil and gas drillers grabbed this money channeled to them from investors and refilled the ever deeper holes fracking was drilling into their balance sheets.
This article was sent to 4,822 people who get email alerts on USO.
Get email alerts on USO »
But the prices for crude oil, US natural gas, and natural gas liquids have all plunged. Revenues from unhedged production are down 40% or 50%, or more from just seven months ago. And when the hedges expire, the problem will get worse. The industry has been through this before. It knows what to do.
Layoffs are cascading through the oil and gas sector. On Tuesday, the Dallas Fed projected that in Texas alone, 140,000 jobs could be eliminated. Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) said that it was axing an undisclosed number of people in Houston. Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), Canada's largest oil producer, will dump 1,000 workers in its tar-sands projects. Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) is idling rigs and cutting jobs. Smaller companies are slashing projects and jobs at an even faster pace. And now Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), the world's biggest oilfield-services company, will cut 9,000 jobs.
It had an earnings debacle. It announced that Q4 EPS grew by 11% year-over-year to $1.50, "excluding charges and credits." In reality, its net income plunged 81% to $302 million, after $1.8 billion in write-offs that included its production assets in Texas.
To prop up its shares, it announced that it would increase its dividend by 25%. And yes, it blew $1.1 billion in the quarter and $4.7 billion in the year, on share buybacks, a program that would continue, it said. Financial engineering works. On Thursday, its shares were down 35% since June. But on Friday, after the announcement, they jumped 6%.
All these companies had gone on hiring binges over the last few years. Those binges are now being unwound. "We want to live within our means," is how Suncor CFO Alister Cowan explained the phenomenon.
Because now, they have to.
Larger drillers outspent their cash flows from production by 112% and smaller to midsize drillers by a breathtaking 157%, Barclays estimated. But no problem. Wall Street was eager to supply the remaining juice, and the piles of debt on these companies' balance sheets ballooned. Oil-field services companies, suppliers, steel companies, accommodation providers… they all benefited.
Now the music has stopped. Suddenly, many of these companies are essentially locked out of the capital markets. They have to live within their means or go under.
California Resources (NYSE:CRC), for example. This oil-and-gas production company operating exclusively in oil-state California, was spun off from Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) November 2014 to inflate OXY's share price. As part of the financial engineering that went into the spinoff, California Resources was loaded up with debt to pay OXY $6 billion. Shares started trading on December 1. Bank of America explained at the time that the company was undervalued and rated it a buy with a $14-a-share outlook. Those hapless souls who believed the Wall Street hype and bought these misbegotten shares have watched them drop to $4.33 by today, losing 57% of their investment in seven weeks.
Its junk bonds - 6% notes due 2024 - were trading at 79 cents on the dollar today, down another 3 points from last week, according to S&P Capital IQ LCD.
Others weren't so lucky.
Samson Resources is barely hanging on. It was acquired for $7.2 billion in 2011 by a group of private-equity firms led by KKR (NYSE:KKR). They loaded it up with $3.6 billion in new debt and saddled it with "management fees." Since its acquisition, it lost over $3 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. This is the inevitable result of fracking for natural gas whose price has been below the cost of production for years - though the industry has vigorously denied this at every twist and turn to attract the new money it needed to fill the holes fracking for gas was leaving behind.
Having burned through most of its available credit, Samson is getting rid of workers and selling off a big part of its oil-and-gas fields. According to S&P Capital IQ LCD, its junk bonds - 9.75% notes due 2020 - traded at 26.5 cents on the dollar today, down about 10 points this week alone.
Halcón Resources (NYSE:HK), which cut its 2015 budget by 55% to 60% just to survive somehow, saw its shares plunge 10% today to $1.20, down 85% since June, and down 25% since January 12 when I wrote about it last. Its junk bonds slid six points this week to 72 cents on the dollar.
Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ:HERO), when I last wrote about it on October 15, was trading for $1.47 a share, down 81% since July. This rock-bottom price might have induced some folks to jump in and follow the Wall-Street hype-advice to "buy the most hated stocks." Today, it's trading for $0.82 a share, down another 44%. In mid-October, its 8.75% notes due 2022 traded at 66 cent on the dollar. Yesterday they traded at 45.
Despite what Wall-Street hype mongers want us to believe: bottom-fishing in the early stages of an oil bust can be one of the most expensive things to do.
Paragon Offshore (NYSE:PGN) is another perfect example of Wall Street engineering in the oil and gas sector. The offshore driller was spun off from Noble (NYSE:NE) in early August 2014 with the goal of goosing Noble's stock price. They loaded up the new company with debt. As part of the spinoff, it sold $580 million in junk bonds at 100 cents on the dollar. When its shares started trading, they immediately plunged. By the time I wrote about the company on October 15, they'd dropped 68% to $5.60. And the 6.75% notes due 2022 were trading at 77 cents on the dollar. Then in November, Paragon had the temerity to take on more debt to acquire Prospector Drilling Offshore.
Two days ago, Moody's downgraded the outfit to Ba3, with negative outlook, citing the "rapid and significant deterioration in offshore rig-market fundamentals," "the high likelihood" its older rigs might "not find new contracts," and the "mostly debt-funded acquisition" of Prospector Drilling. The downgrade affects about $1.64 billion in debt.
Today, Paragon's shares trade for $2.18, down another 61% since October 15. Its junk bonds are down to 58 cents on the dollar.
Swift Energy (NYSE:SFY) - whose stock, now at $2.37, has been declining for years and is down 84% from a year ago - saw its junk bonds shrivel another eight points over the week to 36 cents on the dollar.
"Such movement demonstrates the challenging market conditions for oil-spill credits, with spotty trades and often large price gaps lower," S&P Capital IQ LCD reported.
It boils down to this: these companies are locked out of the capital markets for all practical purposes; at these share prices, they can't raise equity capital without wiping out existing stockholders; and they can't issue new debt at affordable rates. For them, the junk-bond music has stopped. And their banks are getting nervous too.
Their hope rests on cutting operating costs and capital expenditures, and coddling every dollar they get, while pushing production to maximize cash flow, which ironically will contribute to the oil glut and pressure prices further. They're hoping to hang on until the next miracle arrives.
"We are not panicking," is how a bank CEO responded to the fact that loans to energy companies made up 20% of the bank's loan portfolio. (Read… How Wall Street Drove the Oil & Gas Drilling Boom That's Turning into a Disaster)
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2828756-money-dries-up-for-o…
Wolf Richter, TESTOSTERONE PIT (128 clicks)
Long/short equity, special situations, contrarian, debt
Profile| Send Message|
Follow (176 followers)
Money Money Up For Oil And Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start
Jan. 18, 2015 6:29 AM ET | 57 comments | Includes: CRC, HAL, HERO, HK, HP, NE, OXY, PGN, SFY, SLB, SU, UNG, USO
When money was growing on trees even for junk-rated companies, and when Wall Street still performed miracles for a fee, thanks to the greatest credit bubble in US history, oil and gas drillers grabbed this money channeled to them from investors and refilled the ever deeper holes fracking was drilling into their balance sheets.
This article was sent to 4,822 people who get email alerts on USO.
Get email alerts on USO »
But the prices for crude oil, US natural gas, and natural gas liquids have all plunged. Revenues from unhedged production are down 40% or 50%, or more from just seven months ago. And when the hedges expire, the problem will get worse. The industry has been through this before. It knows what to do.
Layoffs are cascading through the oil and gas sector. On Tuesday, the Dallas Fed projected that in Texas alone, 140,000 jobs could be eliminated. Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) said that it was axing an undisclosed number of people in Houston. Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), Canada's largest oil producer, will dump 1,000 workers in its tar-sands projects. Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) is idling rigs and cutting jobs. Smaller companies are slashing projects and jobs at an even faster pace. And now Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), the world's biggest oilfield-services company, will cut 9,000 jobs.
It had an earnings debacle. It announced that Q4 EPS grew by 11% year-over-year to $1.50, "excluding charges and credits." In reality, its net income plunged 81% to $302 million, after $1.8 billion in write-offs that included its production assets in Texas.
To prop up its shares, it announced that it would increase its dividend by 25%. And yes, it blew $1.1 billion in the quarter and $4.7 billion in the year, on share buybacks, a program that would continue, it said. Financial engineering works. On Thursday, its shares were down 35% since June. But on Friday, after the announcement, they jumped 6%.
All these companies had gone on hiring binges over the last few years. Those binges are now being unwound. "We want to live within our means," is how Suncor CFO Alister Cowan explained the phenomenon.
Because now, they have to.
Larger drillers outspent their cash flows from production by 112% and smaller to midsize drillers by a breathtaking 157%, Barclays estimated. But no problem. Wall Street was eager to supply the remaining juice, and the piles of debt on these companies' balance sheets ballooned. Oil-field services companies, suppliers, steel companies, accommodation providers… they all benefited.
Now the music has stopped. Suddenly, many of these companies are essentially locked out of the capital markets. They have to live within their means or go under.
California Resources (NYSE:CRC), for example. This oil-and-gas production company operating exclusively in oil-state California, was spun off from Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) November 2014 to inflate OXY's share price. As part of the financial engineering that went into the spinoff, California Resources was loaded up with debt to pay OXY $6 billion. Shares started trading on December 1. Bank of America explained at the time that the company was undervalued and rated it a buy with a $14-a-share outlook. Those hapless souls who believed the Wall Street hype and bought these misbegotten shares have watched them drop to $4.33 by today, losing 57% of their investment in seven weeks.
Its junk bonds - 6% notes due 2024 - were trading at 79 cents on the dollar today, down another 3 points from last week, according to S&P Capital IQ LCD.
Others weren't so lucky.
Samson Resources is barely hanging on. It was acquired for $7.2 billion in 2011 by a group of private-equity firms led by KKR (NYSE:KKR). They loaded it up with $3.6 billion in new debt and saddled it with "management fees." Since its acquisition, it lost over $3 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. This is the inevitable result of fracking for natural gas whose price has been below the cost of production for years - though the industry has vigorously denied this at every twist and turn to attract the new money it needed to fill the holes fracking for gas was leaving behind.
Having burned through most of its available credit, Samson is getting rid of workers and selling off a big part of its oil-and-gas fields. According to S&P Capital IQ LCD, its junk bonds - 9.75% notes due 2020 - traded at 26.5 cents on the dollar today, down about 10 points this week alone.
Halcón Resources (NYSE:HK), which cut its 2015 budget by 55% to 60% just to survive somehow, saw its shares plunge 10% today to $1.20, down 85% since June, and down 25% since January 12 when I wrote about it last. Its junk bonds slid six points this week to 72 cents on the dollar.
Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ:HERO), when I last wrote about it on October 15, was trading for $1.47 a share, down 81% since July. This rock-bottom price might have induced some folks to jump in and follow the Wall-Street hype-advice to "buy the most hated stocks." Today, it's trading for $0.82 a share, down another 44%. In mid-October, its 8.75% notes due 2022 traded at 66 cent on the dollar. Yesterday they traded at 45.
Despite what Wall-Street hype mongers want us to believe: bottom-fishing in the early stages of an oil bust can be one of the most expensive things to do.
Paragon Offshore (NYSE:PGN) is another perfect example of Wall Street engineering in the oil and gas sector. The offshore driller was spun off from Noble (NYSE:NE) in early August 2014 with the goal of goosing Noble's stock price. They loaded up the new company with debt. As part of the spinoff, it sold $580 million in junk bonds at 100 cents on the dollar. When its shares started trading, they immediately plunged. By the time I wrote about the company on October 15, they'd dropped 68% to $5.60. And the 6.75% notes due 2022 were trading at 77 cents on the dollar. Then in November, Paragon had the temerity to take on more debt to acquire Prospector Drilling Offshore.
Two days ago, Moody's downgraded the outfit to Ba3, with negative outlook, citing the "rapid and significant deterioration in offshore rig-market fundamentals," "the high likelihood" its older rigs might "not find new contracts," and the "mostly debt-funded acquisition" of Prospector Drilling. The downgrade affects about $1.64 billion in debt.
Today, Paragon's shares trade for $2.18, down another 61% since October 15. Its junk bonds are down to 58 cents on the dollar.
Swift Energy (NYSE:SFY) - whose stock, now at $2.37, has been declining for years and is down 84% from a year ago - saw its junk bonds shrivel another eight points over the week to 36 cents on the dollar.
"Such movement demonstrates the challenging market conditions for oil-spill credits, with spotty trades and often large price gaps lower," S&P Capital IQ LCD reported.
It boils down to this: these companies are locked out of the capital markets for all practical purposes; at these share prices, they can't raise equity capital without wiping out existing stockholders; and they can't issue new debt at affordable rates. For them, the junk-bond music has stopped. And their banks are getting nervous too.
Their hope rests on cutting operating costs and capital expenditures, and coddling every dollar they get, while pushing production to maximize cash flow, which ironically will contribute to the oil glut and pressure prices further. They're hoping to hang on until the next miracle arrives.
"We are not panicking," is how a bank CEO responded to the fact that loans to energy companies made up 20% of the bank's loan portfolio. (Read… How Wall Street Drove the Oil & Gas Drilling Boom That's Turning into a Disaster)
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.813.326 von francescoDC am 18.01.15 19:59:20
Ich schon!
Zitat von francescoDC: Kannst Du Dich daran erinnern, in den letzten 3 Jahren mal einen positven Beitrag verfasst zu haben ?
Ich nicht.
Ich schon!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.810.404 von goldfinger69 am 18.01.15 11:33:59Kannst Du Dich daran erinnern, in den letzten 3 Jahren mal einen positven Beitrag verfasst zu haben ?
Ich nicht.
Gerry, hör auf mit diesem "Negativ-Filter"
Du vergiftest Dich selbst dabei und das kostet Dich Lebensqualität und vermutlich auch Lebensdauer.
Es gibt genügend Dinge um Dich herum, die "schön" sind.
Dein halbkaputtes Depot wird sich heuer nicht nennenswert verändern.
Die große und kleine Politik wird nicht aufhören, Mist zu bauen.
Hör auf damit, Dein Hirn damit zu belasten.
Franz
Ich nicht.
Gerry, hör auf mit diesem "Negativ-Filter"
Du vergiftest Dich selbst dabei und das kostet Dich Lebensqualität und vermutlich auch Lebensdauer.
Es gibt genügend Dinge um Dich herum, die "schön" sind.
Dein halbkaputtes Depot wird sich heuer nicht nennenswert verändern.
Die große und kleine Politik wird nicht aufhören, Mist zu bauen.
Hör auf damit, Dein Hirn damit zu belasten.
Franz
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.810.446 von goldfinger69 am 18.01.15 11:40:12Das stimmt natürlich. Wir haben es ja bei den Seltenen Erden gesehen.
Da wurde in einigen Bereichen viel substituiert.
Aber seit Lynas und Molycorp produzieren, gibt es Leichte Seltene Erden en masse.
Mit Billigöl derzeit werden es auch die Alternativen Energien immer schwerer haben.
LG Matze
Da wurde in einigen Bereichen viel substituiert.
Aber seit Lynas und Molycorp produzieren, gibt es Leichte Seltene Erden en masse.
Mit Billigöl derzeit werden es auch die Alternativen Energien immer schwerer haben.
LG Matze
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.810.404 von goldfinger69 am 18.01.15 11:33:59Ja, das ist schon krass.
Die Leute leben hier angeblich seit 30 Jahren. Da ist irgendwas gewaltig schief gelaufen in der Integration.
Wird Zeit, dass hier nicht mehr am falschen Ende gespart wird.
Die Leute leben hier angeblich seit 30 Jahren. Da ist irgendwas gewaltig schief gelaufen in der Integration.
Wird Zeit, dass hier nicht mehr am falschen Ende gespart wird.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.810.359 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 18.01.15 11:27:51So sollte der erste Link funzen:
http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/ford-f-150-truck-mit-alu-…
http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/ford-f-150-truck-mit-alu-…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.810.359 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 18.01.15 11:27:51Alu ist ja auch billig ...hätte Ford das auch gemacht wenn Alu das doppelte kostet oder gar das dreifache 
.... was ich damit sagen möchte wäre Alu wenn es das mehrfache kostet dann auch noch erste Wahl für Autobauer ? ...sprich stellen alle Autobauer auf Alu um dann haben wir hier theoretisch einen Alu Preis der für Autobauer dann wieder zu teuer ist ....
.... was ich damit sagen möchte wäre Alu wenn es das mehrfache kostet dann auch noch erste Wahl für Autobauer ? ...sprich stellen alle Autobauer auf Alu um dann haben wir hier theoretisch einen Alu Preis der für Autobauer dann wieder zu teuer ist ....
Warum greift hier unser Staat nicht endlich mal durch ... Warum wird solch ein Pack nicht einfach des Landes verwiesen ???? 
Genau wegen solchen Pack entstehen dann Organisationen wie Pegida hier im Lande ...die Leute sind solch ein Pack die hier nur Terror machen mehr als satt ...Ich denke die meisten Pegida Anhänger haben nichts gegen Menschen die aus Gründung der Verfolgung oder um sich hier was aufzubauen herkommen und sich im Lande integrieren wollen !!!
http://www.focus.de/panorama/welt/gewalt-exzess-von-hameln-m…
Genau wegen solchen Pack entstehen dann Organisationen wie Pegida hier im Lande ...die Leute sind solch ein Pack die hier nur Terror machen mehr als satt ...Ich denke die meisten Pegida Anhänger haben nichts gegen Menschen die aus Gründung der Verfolgung oder um sich hier was aufzubauen herkommen und sich im Lande integrieren wollen !!! http://www.focus.de/panorama/welt/gewalt-exzess-von-hameln-m…
Moin,
Heute entdeckt, super spannend! Könnte sein, dass der ALU-Markt demnächst leergefegt wird:
Allerdings gab es auch schon früher Pressemeldungen dazu:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/technik-motor/auto-verkehr/wegen-…
Falls noch andere Autobauer auf den Leichtmetallzug aufspringen, sollte das den Alupreis in neue Höhen katapultieren.
Dann werden auch die Alu-Explorer wieder erwachen. Jedenfalls habe ich ein gutes Gefühl bei diesem Investment in BAU, der Kurs hat ja auch einen guten Boden mittlerweile. Vielleicht sind die Bodenkurse schon bald Vergangenheit.
Aktuell wird BAU nach Cash-Bestand bewertet.
60 % der Aktien sind in festen Händen. http://www.bauxiteresources.com.au/irm/content/top-20-shareh…
Fact Sheet:
http://www.bauxiteresources.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx…
Irre auch, wenn man sich die Alu-Bestände an der LME anschaut:
Und nicht nur dort, laut BAU schwinden auch die China-Lagerbestände nach dem Indonesischen Exportstopp für Bauxit.
"The Indonesian ban on bauxite exports has taken effect as stockpiles in China diminish and new sources are sought. "
Wenn alles klappt, dann produziert BAU mit seinen JV´s ab 2017. Bis dahin gibt es noch einiges zu tun, aber BAU ist auf gutem Wege. Imho.
Schönen Sonntag!
Matze
Heute entdeckt, super spannend! Könnte sein, dass der ALU-Markt demnächst leergefegt wird:
Allerdings gab es auch schon früher Pressemeldungen dazu:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/technik-motor/auto-verkehr/wegen-…
Falls noch andere Autobauer auf den Leichtmetallzug aufspringen, sollte das den Alupreis in neue Höhen katapultieren.
Dann werden auch die Alu-Explorer wieder erwachen. Jedenfalls habe ich ein gutes Gefühl bei diesem Investment in BAU, der Kurs hat ja auch einen guten Boden mittlerweile. Vielleicht sind die Bodenkurse schon bald Vergangenheit.
Aktuell wird BAU nach Cash-Bestand bewertet.
60 % der Aktien sind in festen Händen. http://www.bauxiteresources.com.au/irm/content/top-20-shareh…
Fact Sheet:
http://www.bauxiteresources.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx…
Irre auch, wenn man sich die Alu-Bestände an der LME anschaut:
Und nicht nur dort, laut BAU schwinden auch die China-Lagerbestände nach dem Indonesischen Exportstopp für Bauxit.
"The Indonesian ban on bauxite exports has taken effect as stockpiles in China diminish and new sources are sought. "
Wenn alles klappt, dann produziert BAU mit seinen JV´s ab 2017. Bis dahin gibt es noch einiges zu tun, aber BAU ist auf gutem Wege. Imho.
Schönen Sonntag!
Matze
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.809.138 von francescoDC am 17.01.15 23:41:41https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK2LzedgL8
Durchsuchen
