Fundamentales zum Goldmarkt - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Sovereign]

Hi Goldfans: Bei der Lektüre des Geschäftsberichts der kanadischen High River Gold bin ich auf folgende Analyse zur Lage des Goldmarkts gestoßen:

CONTRARY TO WHAT THE MEDIA WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE, GOLD IS ALIVE AND WELL AND IS POSITIONED
FOR A POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE INCREASE IN PRICE.
BACKGROUND BASIC ECONOMICS ILLUSTRATES THAT, IN A FREE MARKET, THE PRICE OF ANY ITEM IS
DETERMINED AT THE EQUILIBRIUM OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY. IF DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY, AS IS THE CASE
FOR GOLD, THE PRICE SHOULD RISE UNTIL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN BALANCE. DEMAND
FOR GOLD IS AT RECORD LEVELS, CREATING A WIDENING ANNUAL SUPPLY SHORTFALL IN EXCESS OF 1500
TONNES OR APPROXIMATELY 50 MILLION OUNCES. HOWEVER, SINCE GOLD IS NOT CONSUMED, THE ANNUAL
SHORTFALL CAN BE FILLED IN THE SHORT TERM FROM ABOVE-GROUND GOLD SOURCES CONSISTING OF
RECYCLED GOLD, NET SALES BY CENTRAL BANKS AND NET HEDGING.
The major factor depressing the gold price has been hedging, which is the practice of selling gold
(increasing supply) which has been leased (borrowed) from central bank reserves. The seller has the
obligation to repay the gold at some time in the future either from future production (if the seller is a
gold producer) or through market purchases. Estimates of the outstanding accumulated hedge (central
banks keep their leasing data secret) vary from 150 million ounces to as high as 300+ million ounces. In
effect, the equivalent of two to four years of annual gold production has flooded the gold market over
the past several years causing the price to fall well below its proper equilibrium point (projected to be
between US $500 and US $600 per ounce).
Gold producers use hedging to manage the risk of a lower future gold price and as a source of low-cost
financing (gold lease rates generally average 1% - 2% per annum). Unfortunately, hedging is also used by
bullion banks, hedge funds and speculators who until recently viewed the practice as a risk-free source of
low-cost capital which they could invest elsewhere for profit (gold carry trade). Along with the profit
from the carry trade goes the opportunity for gain or risk of loss depending on the price paid to
repurchase the borrowed gold.
Demand is Growing and Supply is Shrinking Gold’s demand and supply factors are changing in
gold’s favour. A strong case can be made for significant growth in each of gold’s demand components
of jewellery (75% - 80%), other fabrication uses, hedging repurchases and investment demand. At the
same time, forces are causing a major reduction in supply.
The Asian population has a strong cultural affinity to gold for both jewellery and investment purposes.
The recent devaluation of the Asian currencies has reinforced their faith in gold. As the Asian economies
and per capita income continue to improve, this large and growing population represents significant
growth potential in the demand for gold.
The unwinding of the large hedge (short) position should both increase demand and reduce supply
thereby putting strong upward pressure on the gold price. Producers have the option to deliver future
mine production against their hedges (reducing future supply) or purchase physical gold in the
market (increasing current demand). However hedge funds, bullion banks and speculators, who hold
major short positions, have no alternative but to repurchase from a limited supply of physical gold in
the market.
Investment demand for gold has been relatively low during the past 10-15 years as other financial assets
have clearly outperformed. As long as US dollar based securities, including the Dow Jones and NASDAQ,
continue to perform, there is little reason to invest in gold. However, one of the longest bull markets in
history is now showing signs of a top. A severe decline in the US markets and in the dollar will result in
a significant increase in the investment demand for gold, as gold has been the preferred safe-haven
investment for capital preservation.
Gold in the ground is a depletable resource. Over time, operating mines run out of ore and companies
need to find and develop new mines. Few gold companies are profitable at today’s gold price and those
that are, make most of their profits from financial engineering or hedging activity. Little financing is
currently available for developing new gold mines or for exploration. Without a higher gold price, the
pipeline for creating new gold supply for the future is small and growing smaller.
Robert Mundell, winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize for Economics, forecasts that gold will continue to play
an important role in Central Bank reserves. He expects Central Banks to increase their purchases of gold
and Euros when the US dollar declines. Most banks are overweighted in dollars today.
Gold and the Global Economy A number of economic shocks are distinct possibilities, if not
probabilities, in today’s economy. The current economic boom in the US does not appear sustainable.
The primary driver of that economy has been an uncontrolled, excessive growth in credit which has
accelerated over the past few years. The US, which was once the world’s largest creditor nation is now the
largest debtor nation, running an annualized trade deficit of approximately US $400 billion while its
domestic savings have almost vanished. Financing this deficit requires a strong dollar and a healthy stock
and bond market. Over 70% of all US dollars are now in foreign hands; any movement away from the
dollar or the US markets could have a dramatic impact on the world’s monetary system.
Changes in the “Politics” of Gold The US abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Without the constraint
of a gold standard, Central Banks have been unwilling or unable to control money supply growth and,
over time, all paper (fiat) currencies depreciate. In a weak gold market and in the absence of strong
investment demand, Central Bankers have the ability, through gold sales and leasing, to significantly
influence or manage the gold price in the short term. As long as people have faith in the US dollar, they
feel there is no need to invest in gold.
It is difficult to accept that the interest that Central Banks earn from hedging (only millions of dollars at
1% - 2%) justifies the overall loss (billions of dollars) in the value of their collective reserves. It is even
more difficult to comprehend this practice when the direct result of hedging is an extremely large transfer
of wealth away from workers (jobs and income) and citizens (tax and royalty revenues) of the “poorer
developing countries” into the pockets of bullion banks, hedge funds and speculators. It is equally
difficult to defend the hedging activity of many of the major gold producers since a lower gold price
significantly reduces the value of their gold-in-the-ground reserves and eliminates much of the future
potential upside for their shareholders.
It was only a matter of time until sufficient political pressure evolved to challenge this activity. Last year,
the IMF proposed to sell some of its gold reserves to provide debt relief for poor nations. A strong lobby,
including the African-American Caucus of the US Congress, managed to convince the IMF that
uncontrolled gold sales by the IMF and Central Banks was counterproductive and the plan was cancelled.
A revised plan based on the revaluation of the IMF gold reserves at market price, was approved. Not only
does this plan remove the selling pressure on gold, it actually provides an incentive for higher gold prices
in the future since a higher gold price would provide more money to assist poorer nations. The European
Central Bank has also decided to revalue their gold reserves at market price.
A watershed occurred in September 1999 with the announcement by fifteen Central Banks in Europe to
limit their gold sales and gold leasing activity for at least a five year period. The US, Japan, and IMF stated
that they would abide by the spirit of this agreement, called the Washington Accord. In effect, access to
85%-90% of the world’s official sector gold reserves (for hedging and sales purposes) to fill the supply
deficit is now restricted. The market reaction to this announcement was immediate and within days the
gold price jumped US $70 per ounce to the US $330 per ounce level.
The sudden increase in the price of gold exposed the financial risks associated with aggressive hedging. Share
prices of companies with significant hedge positions actually fell with the rising gold price. In reaction, a
number of producers have already announced plans to reduce or eliminate their hedging activity.
At the time of writing, gold has given back most of the price gain since the Washington Accord. This
brings to mind Alan Greenspan’s 1998 comment to the US House Banking Committee that “Central
Banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.” There are limits to the risks
that even Central Banks are prepared to take. Time will tell.
Technical Observations It would appear that the 18-year secular decline in commodity prices has ended
and we are in the early stages of a secular uptrend. In the past year, the price of oil has tripled, the prices
of base metals and most commodities have increased substantially and interest rates have started to rise.
We are told there is no inflation but everything at the supermarket and gas station seems to cost more.
Conclusion Many new and emerging demand and supply forces are now in place that support a
significant increase in the investment demand for gold. Markets are driven by perception and perception
can change very quickly and unexpectedly.
Gold bottomed in August 1999 and appears to have begun a new secular uptrend. According to the
Notley Information Service, only four significant low-risk bottoms have occurred over the last 59 years
for purchasing gold stocks and the fifth is now pending. Mr. Notley, who specializes in the analysis of
trends and cycles, observed in his February 2000 report that the five market rhythms, two secular (annual
and quarterly data) and three cyclical (monthly, weekly and daily data), are in confluence (coming
together and nesting). This is a very powerful technical signal and the last time this occurred for gold and
gold stocks was in 1972 when gold was at US $48 per ounce. Over the following eight years gold rose in
price to US $875 per ounce or 18 times its price in 1972.
We are about to enter a new “golden age” in which gold will again be the true measure of value and the
investment of choice. During the next 15-20 years the price of gold could exceed its previous 1980 high
of US $875 per ounce (US $1600 per ounce in current dollars) and its all-time high of approximately
US $2400 per ounce in today’s dollars, which occurred in the year 1492.
References:
1. Gold Survey (1999) - Update 2, Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd.
2. The Notley Information Service, Yelton Fiscal Inc.
3. www.goldensextant.com
4. www.gold-eagle.com
5. www.egroups.com/group/gata

Fazit: Auch wenn dieser "tour d`horizon" vielleicht etwas zu bullish ausgefallen ist, so wird damit ein weiteres Mal klar, daß der Goldmarkt z.Z. massiv manipuliert wird und rein aus Fundamentalgründen der Goldpreis absolut unterbewertet ist. Obwohl ich kein Crashprophet bin und auch dann und wann gerne Tech Aktien trade, so ist in diesem Sektor immer noch entschieden zuviel heiße Luft. Da lob ich mir die Goldaktien, weil dort wenigstens das Wort "fundamental abgesichert" noch einen Sinn macht.

Gruß

Sovereign

[aneises2]

Hallo Sovereign,

vielen Dank für den Beitrag. Kannst Du uns noch die Seite nennen?

Gruß
aneises2

[aneises2]

Hallo Sovereign,

vielen Dank für den Beitrag. Kannst Du uns noch die Seite nennen?

Gruß
aneises2

[Sovereign]

http://www.hrg.ca/Content_Why_Gold.htm

[just_do_it_de]

Auszug aus dem obigen Bericht:
Investment demand for gold has been relatively low during the past 10-15 years as other financial assets
have clearly outperformed. As long as US dollar based securities, including the Dow Jones and NASDAQ,
continue to perform, there is little reason to invest in gold

Gold steigt nur wenn der Nasdaq fällt
Der Nasdaq ist aber bereits von ca. 5000 Pkt auf ca. 3500 Pkt gefallen
Was ca. 30% Korrektur zum Nasdaq-Top darstellt.

War dies nun die Nasdaq-Korrektur mit anschließendem Gipfelsturm, das top könnte man noch
z.B. auf 6000 Pkt pushen bis entgültig eine nochmalige Korrektur kommt,
oder gehen wir die nächsten 12 Monate nicht mehr über die 5000 Pkt
da die US-Zinsen weiter steigen.

Der Nasdaq müsste jedenfallst unter der 4000 Pkt – Marke bleiben, was zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt
Erst wieder interessant wird, wenn die US-Fed am 22.Aug00 die Zinsen nochmal anhebt.

Was meint ihr dazu.