Wann platzt die TESLA-Blase

eröffnet am 09.08.13 22:52:15 von
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09.08.13 22:52:15
Tesla übertrifft Erwartungen erneut
Palo Alto, USA - Der US-Elektrofahrzeug-Hersteller Tesla Motors hat seine Anleger wieder mit überzeugenden Finanzkennzahlen entzückt. Das Unternehmen hat Umsatzerlöse in Höhe von 26 Mio. US-Dollar verbucht, was einer Zunahme gegenüber dem Vorquartal um 70 Prozent entspricht. Dabei hat sich der Absatz an dem unternehmenseigenen Modell S auf dem nordamerikanischen Markt auf ein Rekordniveau von 5.150 Fahrzeugen erhöht, was die Prognose von 4.500 Verkäufen deutlich übertroffen hat. Die Bruttomarge ist ebenfalls gegenüber dem ersten Quartal von 17 auf 22 Prozent gestiegen.

Absatz von 40.000 Autos pro Jahr bis Ende 2014 erwartet
Für weitere Wachtumsimpulse setzt das Unternehmen auf einen gelungen Eintritt in den europäischen Markt. Lieferungen nach Europa laufen seit Beginn der Woche. Die ersten Ladungen sind für die Märkte in Norwegen, der Schweiz und die Niederlande bestimmt. Bisher hat sich das Auftragsvolumen aus Europa jeden Monat ständig erhöht. Im Optimalfall rechnet der Autohersteller mit einem Gesamt-Absatzvolumen in Höhe von 40.000 Verkäufe pro Jahr bis Ende 2014.

Auf Kurs für Absatz von über 20.000 Autos im Jahr 2013
Für das dritte Quartel 2013 geht das Unternehmen von einem Absatz an dem Modell S von 5.000 Fahrzeugen aus, womit Tesla auf Kurs zur Erreichung des Jahresziels von 21.000 abgesetzten Boliden ist. Die Bruttomarge soll sich im dritten Quartal auf einen Wert im unteren 20-Prozent-Bereich belaufen.

Quelle: IWR.de
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09.08.13 22:55:22
Tesla CEO Laughs at the Competition
By Daniel Miller | More Articles
August 9, 2013 | Comments (7)

Tesla's Model S. Photo Credit: Tesla Media Gallery.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) is a rare company and a rare investing opportunity. It's truly disrupting an automotive industry which continues to sell nearly all its vehicles with internal combustion engines. Its Model S has a personality fused between a sports car and a luxury model and is truly a step above anything else in the EV market – maybe a few steps ahead. In fact Tesla's Model S scored 99 out of a 100 when Consumer Reports tested it – a special feat, to be sure. So what's one thing that could bring Tesla down from its high horse? Hint: It has something to do with CEO Elon Musk laughing out loud at the competition recently.

Reason for optimism
Before we get to one thing that could drop Tesla down a notch or two, let's cover why the red-hot company, which is up nearly 300% year to date, has reason to gloat. Wall Street and many analysts focus much of their attention on the short term and on whether a company beat or missed EPS, and that's the first reason for Tesla's optimism.

Earlier this week, Tesla announced that on a non-GAAP basis it earned $100 million in gross profit. That's good for a gross margin of 22%, or 13% without one-time zero-emission vehicle, or ZEV, credits – still a ways from its 25% gross margin goal in the fourth quarter. On that non-GAAP basis, its profit was good for $0.20 per share which was a large beat compared to Wall Street's average estimate of a $0.17 loss per share. That marks two consecutive quarters where analysts expected a loss, but instead a profit was delivered. Despite the critics hollering about GAAP and non-GAAP accounting by Tesla, the report was enough to send the stock soaring to a new high – and that's just EPS.

The good news continues, because there are many other factors that aren't earnings-related that paint a nice picture for Tesla. One important aspect in a young growth company is showing that demand still far outpaces supply, which is easily accomplished at Tesla. Its planned growth for 40,000 vehicles is still seemingly on track and the company's recent purchase of land next to its current facility for future production expansion is a good signal.

On top of demand already outpacing supply we have to keep in mind that Tesla is unique in that it has no traditional mainstream advertising – that could hugely benefit demand for Tesla vehicles in the future. It's also still building out its infrastructure for supercharging stations to make its plan reality rather than a futuristic ploy. Tesla has plenty of growth and plenty of positive factors going for it today – although I believe much of that is baked into Tesla's high valuation. But there is one thing that slightly worries me.

A laughing matter?
During Tesla's conference call earlier this week Musk was asked by a respected Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas, about competition from BMW's i3. His response was to laugh out loud for a few seconds time, before gathering himself and answering the question.

Aside from being slightly unprofessional, that's definitely arrogant. That's the type of arrogance we saw at Detroit's Big Three automakers right before their ignorance ran their respective businesses into the ground. Obviously these are different circumstances, but I would temper my laughter when facing companies with hundreds of millions of dollars that could be spent on EV's to develop a vehicle that can compete with Tesla. I would especially temper my laughter when those companies are in much better financial standing than in the past decade.

Consider Ford (NYSE: F  ) for a split second, a company that has recently proven it understands very well where to develop cars in popular segments. It already has six electrified vehicles and has grown its market share to nearly 16% in the first half of 2013. Through June, Ford sold more than 46,000 electrified vehicles. To be fair this can't be an apples-to-apples comparison with Tesla sales because Ford includes hybrids, plug-in hybrids, as well as its battery-electric vehicles.

In fact, Ford is hiring more than 200 new electrification engineers and expanding its research facilities to speed development of hybrid and EVs. Ford has also invested more than $355 million to design, engineer, and manufacture components for its EV lineup. Moreover, $50 million will also be spent to invest in research and development facilities to reduce its EV development by as much as 25%.

As EV sales continue to grow into a bigger and more profitable segment, you can bet that the big boys will have more to say and Musk will have less to laugh about. For now Tesla's arrogance appears warranted – but it's the long haul that rewards investors, and the game is far from over.

Tesla is shaking up the U.S. auto market, but who's positioned to shake up the world's largest auto market? Investing in the right automaker could heavily reward investors throughout the decade as the auto industry continues its rebound. A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market," names two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free -- just click here for instant access.

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09.08.13 22:57:49
Tesla’s Success So Far Has Some Analysts Eating Crow

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By Jonathan Welsh

Tesla Motors
Tesla Model S
“At the end of the day, you cannot deny how smart Elon Musk is.”

That’s the conclusion of Karl Brauer, a senior analyst with Kelley Blue book who for years doubted electric-car maker Tesla Motors Inc.TSLA -0.31% would still be in business in 2013, much less outperforming Wall Street’s expectations with its second-quarter results released this week.

Brauer’s comments reflect feelings many auto industry insiders have expressed since Tesla got started a decade ago. Like many fledgling companies, Tesla repeatedly overpromised and seemed to underestimate the difficulty of starting a clean-sheet manufacturing operation, especially in the hidebound and prohibitively expensive auto industry.

“What turned me off about Tesla early on was Musk’s attitude — that he was going to Silicon-Valley-ize the car business,” Brauer said. He also said the company’s predictions for its first car’s performance kept getting less ambitious. The company’s two-seat Roadster was based on a Lotus sports car and seemed to some like a classic “kit car,” which many found unimpressive even though the car looked sharp and had a fun-to-drive reputation.

For many years the outlook was poor, at least to people outside the company. During Wednesday’s earnings call Musk said industry research firm IHS Automotive predicted the company would sell 3,000 cars at most before withering. Today an IHS spokesman declined to comment on the alleged forecast, but did not deny it.

This week the company said it has delivered more than 13,000 cars to customers so far in North America and its overall performance has been stunning. But that doesn’t mean all the doubt has disappeared.

“I’m surprised by how well they appear to be doing,” said Art Spinella, president of CNW Research in Bandon, Ore. “Musk has obviously put together a team that can actually work through the issues one at a time,” he said.

Spinella says he was “skeptical like 99% of the people who follow this industry,” but lately has become increasingly impressed with the company and its cars. But there are hurdles, like Tesla’s continuing battle with franchise laws that don’t allow car makers to operate their own dealerships, and the still-high price of Tesla vehicles.

Spinella has been in and around the car business for decades and has seen other promising products fail. He talks about test-driving a DeLorean in the early 1980s just before they went on sale. Though sleek in appearance, the stainless-steel, gull-winged coupe was “awful,” he said.

The Tesla Model S is a much nicer ride, though Spinella, who favors motorcycles and souped-up cars, said he isn’t quite in love with it. “It’s OK,” he says. “Better than the DeLorean.”
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09.08.13 22:59:22
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.221.191 von Wohnwunsch am 09.08.13 22:57:49wann wird diese Riesen Blase platzen ?

Der Kurs ist absolut überhitzt und fern von allem....

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09.08.13 23:19:20
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.221.203 von Wohnwunsch am 09.08.13 22:59:22Dieser PUT auf Tesla könnte ein lohnendes Invest bis 2014 werden

Laufzeit : 14.03.2014
Basispreis : 50$
Hebel : 116,01%

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09.08.13 23:31:47
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.221.297 von Wohnwunsch am 09.08.13 23:19:20Wahnsinn 1 Euro (10x 10 Cent) für einen derzeit wertlosen Put, der 102 Dollar aus dem Geld ist und nur noch ein halbes Jahr läuft.

Der dürfte momentan allerhöchtstens 0,5 Cent, also höchstens 5 Cent für eine Aktie kosten.

Abzocke hoch drei.
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09.08.13 23:41:53
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.221.347 von cathunter am 09.08.13 23:31:47Abwarten, mMn sind mit dem PUT bis Ende des Jahres sehr gute Gewinne drin

Ich bleibe in dem PUT investiert und wir sprechen Ende des Jahres oder früher

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10.08.13 00:20:51
eventuell wird der put gegen ende des jahres noch günstiger weil die Zeit knapp wird. könnte mir vorstellen, daß die Fonds den Laden noch oben halten bis Jahresende ( Windowdressing) vielleicht geht das Teil noch auf 200 und man ist mit einem 100$ put mit gleicher laufzeit also bis märz perfekt ausgestattet

generell finde ich die Idee eines Tesla Puts top
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10.08.13 07:58:59
die emis werden schon wissen, warum sie keine vernünftigen short-Derivate auf tesla rausgeben.......
10.08.13 10:30:26
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.221.485 von niumpica am 10.08.13 00:20:51Das mag schon sein, aber bekanntlich laufen 90% aller Derivate wertlos aus und das Problem ist die Zeit, weil du nicht weisst wie lange die das Teil da oben halten bzw. wann die Blase platzt.

...und meist platzt die Blase genau dann wenn du abkassiert wurderst. :keks:
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