US Productivity Takes Unexpected Drop In 4Q - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[nachtschatten]

doch ein GDP von 1,1 im 4. quartal ?



DATA SNAP: US Productivity Takes Unexpected Drop In 4Q


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Fourth-Quarter Productivity !Consensus: !
Key Numbers: 4Q 3Q ! +0.5%!
Nonfarm Productivity -0.6% +4.5%r ! !
Unit Labor Costs +3.5% -0.5%r !Actual: -0.6%!
! !
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By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. productivity fell at the end of 2005, reflecting an economy that put on the brakes, while a gauge of price pressures climbed.

Non-farm business sector productivity decreased 0.6% during October through December, after rising 4.5% in the third quarter, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The drop marked the weakest showing in productivity since a 0.9% tumble in the third quarter of 2000. It was the first decline since a 0.4% fall in the first quarter of 2001.

A big slowdown was expected. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was productivity rising at a 0.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Productivity is output divded by hours worked. The output figure is derived from gross domestic product data. Last week, the government reported fourth-quarter GDP grew a surprisingly listless 1.1%, the weakest quarterly showing in three years.

But just as some analysts expect GDP to accelerate in the first quarter, there are those who think productivity trends will remain favorable, restraining inflation in 2006.

Thursday`s data showed unit labor costs - a gauge of inflationary pressures - rose by 3.5%. Costs in the third quarter fell 0.5%. The increase was the biggest since a 7.6% jump in fourth-quarter 2004.

Unit labor costs are the compensation paid to labor for one unit of output. Labor is considered the most important input cost to production. Higher labor costs must be either passed through by a company in the form of higher prices to its customers or absorbed in the firm`s profit margins.

The Federal Reserve watches unit labor costs to weigh inflationary pressures within the economy. To keep inflation under wraps amid the U.S. economic expansion, the central bank has lifted its federal funds rate 14 straight times since mid-2004, with the latest hike made Tuesday to a level of 4.5%.

Policy-makers said core inflation, which excludes energy costs, has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. But they cited possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices as having the potential to add to inflation pressures.

Recent data have indicated rising use of resources within the nation`s economy. For instance, the Fed reported utilization of capacity by U.S. industry rose to its highest level since November 2000 during December. And the nation`s unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% at the end of 2005 from 5.0%. Non-farm business payrolls climbed by 413,000 jobs in November and December, an average exceeding 200,000 a month.

The Labor report Thursday said non-farm business output grew just 0.9% October through December; the number is derived from the GDP report. Hours worked rose by 1.5%.

Hourly compensation climbed 2.8%. Real compensation, adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.4%.

In the third quarter, productivity climbed 4.5%, output advanced 4.7%, hours worked grew 0.1%, compensation rose 4.1%, and real hourly compensation slid 1.0%.

Annually, non-farm business sector productivity rose 2.7% in 2005, lower than the 3.4% rate of increase in 2004 and the weakest showing since a 2.5% gain in 2001. Unit labor costs were up 2.4%, the largest increase since 2000, when costs rose 4.2%.

[saviano]

Eine Akühlung wurde schon seeehr lange Zeit erwartet...und kam nicht und kam nicht so richtig...

Wenn sie jetzt kommt - was? Ich bin gespannt ob sich der Ölpreis dann halten wird... Und Zinsanhebungen auf der Agenda stehen würden...

http://www.boersennotizbuch.de