Der dow transportation index - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

eröffnet am 26.06.04 12:22:13 von
neuester Beitrag 03.07.04 12:37:06 von


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26.06.04 12:22:13
ist dem dow jones industrial nach oben davongelaufen....was sagt uns das nach der meinung der charttechniker ????

invest2002
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26.06.04 14:02:35
das der dow nachläuft :lick::laugh::D:laugh::laugh:;):D:D:lick::lick:
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26.06.04 18:50:11
Höchst interessante Frage!



While the past is no guarantee of the future, in looking back at Dow Transport/Industrial divergences over the past five years, every single time we had one, a stock market crash occurred shortly thereafter - within two to three months.

Zur Erklärung:

Der Autor stellt die Behauptung auf, dass eine bearishe Divergenz vorliegt.

Die letzten 5 Jahre gab es ein solche Divergenz viermal und jedesmal folgte ein Crash.
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26.06.04 19:38:25
„Klassisch“ läuft die Industrie dem Transport voraus.
Güter müssen ja erst hergestellt werden bevor sie transportiert werden können !!! ;)
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27.06.04 12:55:19
also diese gewagte these kann ich den charts aber nicht entnehmen...

invest2002
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27.06.04 13:25:28
was willste invest2002?

bullische kommentare?
Rico hat absolut recht und die Grafik von Robert McHugh ist zumindest aufschlussreich. ob`s deshalb gleich ein crash wird, na ja...wird ja bekanntlich nicht geklingelt an der börse.

aber die signifikanten kursgewinne des TRAN könnten an einem `missverständnis` verankert sein. die revenues der TRAN aktien sind wegen gestiegener Ölpreise stark gestiegen. aber natürlich auch die kosten.;)

kann schon sein , dass das dem einen oder anderen bullen im eifer des gefechts entgangen ist.


guggsch du da:

The Reality Of PPT

No, this is not going to be some rant on manipulated financial markets and conspiratorial underground equity market support. What we`d like to quickly address is the idea of price pass through. You may have noticed lately that the mainstream financial media is beginning to cheerlead for equities based on theoretically newfound recent pricing power at the corporate level. Finally, corporations are inching up prices. And, in all sincerity, it`s a practice that is becoming widespread. Wonderful for potential future corporate earnings growth, right? Just what we have been waiting for in the sense that the cost cutting that has been bolstering corporate bottom lines for the better part of the last few years will now give way to real pricing power in terms of supporting forward corporate revenue and bottom line expansion, no? As we mentioned last week, we have been meaning to take a brief look at the Dow Transports. And in terms of passing through prices, who better to review than the one industry that has been bombarded by the blessings of higher energy costs over the last year, to say nothing of higher insurance premiums, workers comp costs, etc. In the much bigger picture, we believe it`s very important to start thinking about and addressing the difference between true corporate pricing power relative to the very basic and significant need of corporations to at least try to pass through visibly higher input costs. Costs such as those related to energy, raw materials, insurance costs, etc. Perceptually, the concept of "pricing power", per se, is suggestive of improving operating profitability. Is this really the case with corporate America`s recent bout of price hikes?

As we mentioned a few weeks back when looking at energy, we have found it almost irrational that while crude oil as a commodity was reaching new all time highs, along with its kissing cousin wholesale gasoline and diesel prices, the Dow Transports were likewise ascending in value. Almost as if energy costs were a non-event for this bunch. The fact is that many a valued member of the Dow Transports has been experiencing year over year double digit revenue growth as of the first quarter of this year. Those are big numbers. And along with those increasing revenues has come increasing nominal year over year bottom line earnings. Wonderful. Fantastic. But what about the character of underlying profitability? Is this apparent pricing and volume power allowing these companies to increase profit margins and ultimately boost return to shareholders? There is no question that higher economic activity is driving better results for the transports. But it`s also true that these folks are passing higher energy costs right through to customers. And that pass through of costs is hitting the revenue line. Perceptually pleasing, but are these companies really displaying the leverage in profitability often associated with cyclically higher economic activity?

The following table is the year over year data for a number of truckers and rails as of the first quarter of this year. Please be aware that the Yellow Roadway numbers reflect the merger between the two. As is clear, we have delineated the year over year 1Q revenue change for each. Additionally, we`ve included the year over year change in cost of goods sold and SG&A. Of course for a select number of transport companies, margins indeed have improved on substantial volume increases over the past year. But for the folks you see below, in most cases the year over year change in cost of goods sold has run neck and neck with the annual change in revenue for the first quarter. In essence, inherent profitability or margin leverage really hasn`t increased at all, despite a clear improvement in the macro economic environment.





Just as a quick note, the year over year change in the price of crude oil as of 1Q 2004 period end was 9.6%. As you probably know, virtually every transportation company has energy cost escalators built into their pricing contracts. This is one industry that has been able to contractually pass through higher energy costs almost from the get go. Of course, the obvious question is, just how much of the increase in year over year revenues is real transport industry pricing power, and just how much is related to the pass through of energy costs on the top line? The fact that the COGS for the companies above has moved in virtual sympathy with their revenue lines suggest that core pricing power for this little cross section of ground transports has been minimal. This thought is at least partially vindicated by the fact that year over year changes in ROE, ROA, and ROC have also been minimal at best.


noch fragen?

gruss woernie
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27.06.04 14:08:58
#1

Auch der dow util.sieht deutlich bullisher aus als der dow indu,nach der dow theorie stimmt hier scheinbar irgend etwas nicht :look::look:
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27.06.04 14:26:47
Danke woernie :)


Die Idee der Divergenzen zwischen Industrie und Transport stammen noch aus dem Beginn der Industrialisierung. Als Produktionsstätten aus Kostengründen immer neben den Rohstoffquellen gebaut wurden. Und langsame Eisenbahnen noch fuhren, als die Produktion schon zurückgefahren war.
Aber heute, in der Zeit von „just-in-time“ Produktion und Transporten möchte ich diesen Zusammenhang nicht mehr als so bedeutsam herausstellen.

Dennoch folgten nach der Divergenz im Juli 2002 schwächere Monate.
Und nach der Divergenz im März 2003 folgten stärkere Monate.
Nach den aktuellen Divergenzen könnte nun schwächere Monate folgen !?
Aber wohlgemerkt „könnte“ !!! Den Fehlsignale werden hier auch ständig produziert.

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03.07.04 12:37:06


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