Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
eröffnet am 21.06.02 09:36:19 von
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Beiträge: 51
ID: 599.990
ID: 599.990
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 2.997
Gesamt: 2.997
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: CA0679011084 · WKN: 870450 · Symbol: ABX
15,288
EUR
-0,95 %
-0,146 EUR
Letzter Kurs 03.05.24 Tradegate
Neuigkeiten
02.05.24 · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion |
03.05.24 · inv3st.de Anzeige |
02.05.24 · ESG Aktien |
01.05.24 · globenewswire  |
Reversal eingeläutet: Gold und Gold-Aktien bleiben nach dem Fed-Termin aussichtsreichWerte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 9,8360 | +17,66 | |
| 1,0950 | +16,00 | |
| 2,4000 | +14,83 | |
| 552,55 | +13,76 | |
| 33,17 | +13,52 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 185,00 | -9,76 | |
| 0,6700 | -14,92 | |
| 43,97 | -16,90 | |
| 12,000 | -25,00 | |
| 46,27 | -98,01 |
Feedback
Top newsletters` most-wanted stocks
By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:02 AM ET June 21, 2002
ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The following 10 stocks are those most recommended right now by investment newsletters that, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, have beaten the market over the past 12 months.
The number to the right of each stock indicates the number of these 12-month market beaters currently recommending it.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX: news, chart, profile); 7
By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:02 AM ET June 21, 2002
ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The following 10 stocks are those most recommended right now by investment newsletters that, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, have beaten the market over the past 12 months.
The number to the right of each stock indicates the number of these 12-month market beaters currently recommending it.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX: news, chart, profile); 7
Es sieht so aus, das ABX gerade einen klassischen doppelten Boden bildet!
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Indem der Irak der UN heute nicht geantwortet hat wegen der inspektionen, kommt das Gerücht auf, das die USA evntuell einen Krieg gegen den Irak bald beginnen könnte. Sehe auf den Goldchart von Januar 1991.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Report: U.S. plan calls for attack on Iraq
N.Y. Times says plan calls for air, land and sea-based forces
July 5, 2002 Posted: 11:41 AM EDT (1541 GMT)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- A draft U.S. military plan for an invasion of Iraq is said to envision a multipronged attack with tens of thousands of Marines and soldiers probably invading from Kuwait, The New York Times reported Friday.
Citing a person familiar with the document, the newspaper said the highly classified plan calls for air, land and sea-based forces to attack from three directions in a campaign to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
U.S. President George W. Bush has openly declared his desire to remove Hussein by military force if necessary but has offered few details of how he plans to accomplish that goal.
RESOURCES
Under the cease-fire that ended the Gulf War, Iraq was to destroy its existing weapons of mass destruction. A CNN.com In-Depth Special report describes the types of weapons at issue and the dispute over inspections of them.
MORE STORIES
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has said he hopes that two days of talks with the Iraqi leadership can lead to "conclusive decisions" on the return of the arms experts.
According to the newspaper, the document envisions hundreds of warplanes based in as many as eight countries unleashing a huge air assault against thousands of targets, including airfields, roadways and fiber-optics communications sites.
Special operations forces or covert CIA operatives would strike at depots or laboratories storing or manufacturing Iraq`s suspected weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to launch them, the report said.
Underscoring the preliminary nature of the planning, officials were cited as saying that none of the countries named in the document have been formally consulted about playing a role in any U.S. action against Iraq.
Nothing in the document or in interviews with senior military officials suggests an attack on Iraq is imminent, the newspaper said.
The source familiar with the document described its contents to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity, expressing frustration that the planning "failed to incorporate fully the advances in military tactics and technology since the Persian Gulf war in 1991," the report said.
The Times said the plan, titled "CentCom Courses of Action," was prepared by officials at the Central Command in Tampa, Florida, again citing the person familiar with the document.
The newspaper said the outline indicated an advanced state of planning in the military even though Bush continued to say publicly that he has no plan on his desk for an invasion of Iraq.
"Right now, we`re at the stage of conceptual thinking and brainstorming," a senior defense official told the Times. "We`re pretty far along."
Officials told the newspaper that neither Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, nor the Joint Chiefs of Staff nor U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks had been briefed on this specific document.
"It is the responsibility of the Department of Defense to develop contingency plans and, from time to time, to update them," Victoria Clarke, the Pentagon spokeswoman, told the newspaper Thursday.
N.Y. Times says plan calls for air, land and sea-based forces
July 5, 2002 Posted: 11:41 AM EDT (1541 GMT)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- A draft U.S. military plan for an invasion of Iraq is said to envision a multipronged attack with tens of thousands of Marines and soldiers probably invading from Kuwait, The New York Times reported Friday.
Citing a person familiar with the document, the newspaper said the highly classified plan calls for air, land and sea-based forces to attack from three directions in a campaign to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
U.S. President George W. Bush has openly declared his desire to remove Hussein by military force if necessary but has offered few details of how he plans to accomplish that goal.
RESOURCES
Under the cease-fire that ended the Gulf War, Iraq was to destroy its existing weapons of mass destruction. A CNN.com In-Depth Special report describes the types of weapons at issue and the dispute over inspections of them.
MORE STORIES
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has said he hopes that two days of talks with the Iraqi leadership can lead to "conclusive decisions" on the return of the arms experts.
According to the newspaper, the document envisions hundreds of warplanes based in as many as eight countries unleashing a huge air assault against thousands of targets, including airfields, roadways and fiber-optics communications sites.
Special operations forces or covert CIA operatives would strike at depots or laboratories storing or manufacturing Iraq`s suspected weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to launch them, the report said.
Underscoring the preliminary nature of the planning, officials were cited as saying that none of the countries named in the document have been formally consulted about playing a role in any U.S. action against Iraq.
Nothing in the document or in interviews with senior military officials suggests an attack on Iraq is imminent, the newspaper said.
The source familiar with the document described its contents to The New York Times on the condition of anonymity, expressing frustration that the planning "failed to incorporate fully the advances in military tactics and technology since the Persian Gulf war in 1991," the report said.
The Times said the plan, titled "CentCom Courses of Action," was prepared by officials at the Central Command in Tampa, Florida, again citing the person familiar with the document.
The newspaper said the outline indicated an advanced state of planning in the military even though Bush continued to say publicly that he has no plan on his desk for an invasion of Iraq.
"Right now, we`re at the stage of conceptual thinking and brainstorming," a senior defense official told the Times. "We`re pretty far along."
Officials told the newspaper that neither Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, nor the Joint Chiefs of Staff nor U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks had been briefed on this specific document.
"It is the responsibility of the Department of Defense to develop contingency plans and, from time to time, to update them," Victoria Clarke, the Pentagon spokeswoman, told the newspaper Thursday.
Geht long bei den großen Namen vom XAU!!!
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Trading Spotlight
ABX leuchtet auf, bevor der President redet. Leuchtende Position bei ($18,96!!!) bevor der President spricht. Die Tatsache, das Mr. Bush redet, während der Markt geöffnet hat, deutet darauf hin, das MR. bush erwartet, das der markt eine Rallye machen wird, welches eine temporäre Reaktion auf Gold haben könnte. Dieses würde bei Barrick evtl. noch einen besseren Einstiegspunkt geben. Der Dollar wird mittel- bis langfristig auf 105 yen gehen. Habt Geduld und wartet, es dieses wird eintreten.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
US Aktien sind unbeeindruckt von Bush`s Rede. Seine Lösung ist dieselbe wie mit dem Terro. Eine neue Task Force. Der letzte President liebte die Frauen, dieser liebt Task Force`s. Der nächste wird folgenden Fabrcode haben:
Gelb für unsaubere Umsatz-Buchungen "Merck",
Orange für überbuchten Umsatz "WorlCom" und
wer kennt die Farbe für "Enron"?
Wenn Bush soviel Einfluß auf die Räberbarone von der Wall St. hätte, wie er hatte über Sharon, als er ihn vor ein paar Monaten drohte, dann sollten wir komplett sicher sein vor all den kriminellen Unternehmensbilanzierungen. HaHaHa! Selten so schlecht gelacht. Jetzt mal im Ernst, was sollte diese Aktion eigentlich heute. Hat diese Aktion die Investoren nur noch mehr verunsichert. LOL
peter.wedemeier1
Gelb für unsaubere Umsatz-Buchungen "Merck",
Orange für überbuchten Umsatz "WorlCom" und
wer kennt die Farbe für "Enron"?
Wenn Bush soviel Einfluß auf die Räberbarone von der Wall St. hätte, wie er hatte über Sharon, als er ihn vor ein paar Monaten drohte, dann sollten wir komplett sicher sein vor all den kriminellen Unternehmensbilanzierungen. HaHaHa! Selten so schlecht gelacht. Jetzt mal im Ernst, was sollte diese Aktion eigentlich heute. Hat diese Aktion die Investoren nur noch mehr verunsichert. LOL
peter.wedemeier1
Frage an Peter
Möchte wieder bei barrick einsteigen,hatte bei 25,10 euro
verkauft.werde aber immer gewarnt vor hohen kgv 31,wegen
den vorwärtsverkäufen usw .verschiedene analysten raten
aber zum kauf.kann barrick an den hedges kaputtgehen?
danke.
Möchte wieder bei barrick einsteigen,hatte bei 25,10 euro
verkauft.werde aber immer gewarnt vor hohen kgv 31,wegen
den vorwärtsverkäufen usw .verschiedene analysten raten
aber zum kauf.kann barrick an den hedges kaputtgehen?
danke.
Nein. Kaufe ABX und halte!
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
....war da nicht irgend etwas mit Hedging bei ABX...?
Gruss
TFischer
Gruss
TFischer
1) ABX does not physically borrow gold, so it has nothing to pay back to the central banks. That is the problem of the bullion banks, who did the borrowing.
2) ABX has contracts that are signed for 15 years, with options to close them out sooner if ABX, and ABX alone, chooses to do so. Therefore, any rise in the POG does not affect ABX because they simply hold on to the contracts until their 15 year expiry date.
3) In the event of a prolonged rise in the POG, ABX is not as damaged as basher think, because they earn interest in their contracts; the longer a contract is held, the more interest is earned, the higher the average realized price.
4) ABX is not subject to any margin calls, therefore it can not be forced to close out contracts early.
5) ABX`s contracts with the bullion banks do not include any transfer or liability, so even if a bullion bank goes under, ABX will not be forced to cover the bullion banks obligations.
Furthermore, ABX has contracts with 15-20 bullion banks, so one going under does not undo every single contract.
So, three questions for the bashers, one for the GATA people:
1) If ABX`s hedgebook is so vulnerable, why did it not go under with Ashanti in 1999?
2) Why was ABX able to switch from 100% hedged to 50% hedged so easily if they do not have flexible contracts?
3) Why has ABX been such a good proxy for the POG over the last decade?
For GATAites:
Assume that the bullion banks can also defer their contracts into the future and have no margin calls. If the central banks are so determined to undermine the POG, why would they call in their reserves loaned out, thereby further undermining their efforts?
Could it be the central banks will simply write off their losses rather than let the POG go up?
Just wondering....
Anyone able to answer these questions?
2) ABX has contracts that are signed for 15 years, with options to close them out sooner if ABX, and ABX alone, chooses to do so. Therefore, any rise in the POG does not affect ABX because they simply hold on to the contracts until their 15 year expiry date.
3) In the event of a prolonged rise in the POG, ABX is not as damaged as basher think, because they earn interest in their contracts; the longer a contract is held, the more interest is earned, the higher the average realized price.
4) ABX is not subject to any margin calls, therefore it can not be forced to close out contracts early.
5) ABX`s contracts with the bullion banks do not include any transfer or liability, so even if a bullion bank goes under, ABX will not be forced to cover the bullion banks obligations.
Furthermore, ABX has contracts with 15-20 bullion banks, so one going under does not undo every single contract.
So, three questions for the bashers, one for the GATA people:
1) If ABX`s hedgebook is so vulnerable, why did it not go under with Ashanti in 1999?
2) Why was ABX able to switch from 100% hedged to 50% hedged so easily if they do not have flexible contracts?
3) Why has ABX been such a good proxy for the POG over the last decade?
For GATAites:
Assume that the bullion banks can also defer their contracts into the future and have no margin calls. If the central banks are so determined to undermine the POG, why would they call in their reserves loaned out, thereby further undermining their efforts?
Could it be the central banks will simply write off their losses rather than let the POG go up?
Just wondering....
Anyone able to answer these questions?
@Tfischer
Vergiss Barrick....
Wenn schon solide dann Harmony oder Gold Fields
Vergiss Barrick....
Wenn schon solide dann Harmony oder Gold Fields
Warum die Goldpreise steigen sollten! Muß man gelesen haben!!!
http://gold-stocks.com/goldstockframeset.htm
rechts oben!!!
Barrick has begun unwinding hedges!
http://gold-stocks.com/goldstockframeset.htm
rechts oben!!!
Barrick has begun unwinding hedges!
@peter.wedemeier
@alle
Wer dier "Goldmine Barrick empfiehlt"
der hat keine Ahnung von Goldminen
Barrick ist der grösste Hedger
Barricks Vorstandsmitglieder arbeiten also
voll mit den Bullionbanken zusammen
peter.wedemeier sollte nicht nur "kopieren"
sondern auch zu jedem Artikel
eine "persönliche Stellungnahme schreiben"
weniger ist mehr
und nicht jeden Müll einfach "kommentarlos" hier
reinkopieren
wenn Du das Goldboard kaputtmachen willst dann
musst Du nur so weitermachen
Herr Peter Wedemeier
@alle
Wer dier "Goldmine Barrick empfiehlt"
der hat keine Ahnung von Goldminen
Barrick ist der grösste Hedger
Barricks Vorstandsmitglieder arbeiten also
voll mit den Bullionbanken zusammen
peter.wedemeier sollte nicht nur "kopieren"
sondern auch zu jedem Artikel
eine "persönliche Stellungnahme schreiben"
weniger ist mehr
und nicht jeden Müll einfach "kommentarlos" hier
reinkopieren
wenn Du das Goldboard kaputtmachen willst dann
musst Du nur so weitermachen
Herr Peter Wedemeier
@keepitshort.
Ich glaube stganz stark, das du überhaupt keinen Schimmer von Goldminen hast. Zumindest bist du im Moment nicht auf den laufenden. Hast du den Artkel "Why Gold Prices Should Rise" gelesen. Ich glaube nicht, denn sonst hättest du nicht so eine Antwort geschrieben. Also erst informieren, bevor man seine Schnauze zu groß aufmacht.
peter.wedemeier1
Ich glaube stganz stark, das du überhaupt keinen Schimmer von Goldminen hast. Zumindest bist du im Moment nicht auf den laufenden. Hast du den Artkel "Why Gold Prices Should Rise" gelesen. Ich glaube nicht, denn sonst hättest du nicht so eine Antwort geschrieben. Also erst informieren, bevor man seine Schnauze zu groß aufmacht.
peter.wedemeier1
@gringo
...keine Sorge...:-))
Gruss
TFischer
...keine Sorge...:-))
Gruss
TFischer
@peter.wedemeier1
Vor
Barrick Gold wurde die letzten 2 Jahre gewarnt
aber bitte Herr Peter Wedemeier
nennen Sie doch mal kurz 10 Punkte warum
jetzt plötzlich Barrick Gold so gewinnbringend
seine Hedge-Positionen abbaut.
Um Hedge-Positionen abzubauen muss man Geld bezahlen
oder Geld am Anleihemarkt aufnehmen.
Überigens würde ich mich für die Entgleisung
Ihrerseits "bevor man seine Schnauze zu groß aufmacht"
entschuldigen.
Oder sagen Sie solche Worte auch zu Ihrem
Fondmanager.
Vor
Barrick Gold wurde die letzten 2 Jahre gewarnt
aber bitte Herr Peter Wedemeier
nennen Sie doch mal kurz 10 Punkte warum
jetzt plötzlich Barrick Gold so gewinnbringend
seine Hedge-Positionen abbaut.
Um Hedge-Positionen abzubauen muss man Geld bezahlen
oder Geld am Anleihemarkt aufnehmen.
Überigens würde ich mich für die Entgleisung
Ihrerseits "bevor man seine Schnauze zu groß aufmacht"
entschuldigen.
Oder sagen Sie solche Worte auch zu Ihrem
Fondmanager.
Examined over longer time periods, the share prices of well-known hedgers of gold including Barrick Gold [TSE:ABX] have outperformed companies that prefer to stay exposed to the spot gold price. Over a 10, 5 and 2-year timeframe, Barrick has outperformed Newmont [TSE:NEW] for example while some companies that hedge gold have never under-performed the gold price while Newmont has.
As for the current bull run in gold, Lowe is even more controversial. He asserts that hedgers have reduced their books for logical reasons but used the reductions as a reason to talked up the price of gold. But Lowe says the pendulum will swing back towards hedging before long as the outlook for gold starts to appear less impressive.
He is not alone in his view that it`s a matter of time before the logic of hedging gold re-asserts itself. Daryll Castle, a fund manager for Stanlib Asset Management, a South African financial institution, says the time will come when hedged stocks are in vogue based on the fact that no market can continue to rise forever. "When the market`s going down and things are looking negative for the gold market, you want the hedged players," he said.
As for the current bull run in gold, Lowe is even more controversial. He asserts that hedgers have reduced their books for logical reasons but used the reductions as a reason to talked up the price of gold. But Lowe says the pendulum will swing back towards hedging before long as the outlook for gold starts to appear less impressive.
He is not alone in his view that it`s a matter of time before the logic of hedging gold re-asserts itself. Daryll Castle, a fund manager for Stanlib Asset Management, a South African financial institution, says the time will come when hedged stocks are in vogue based on the fact that no market can continue to rise forever. "When the market`s going down and things are looking negative for the gold market, you want the hedged players," he said.
Peter,
Du kopierst nur einen Text hier rein, aber kommentierst nicht den Hintergrund.
Nur soviel:
Barrick hat die anderen, v.a. nicht gehedgten durch ihr Hedgebook "outperformed" - und zwar in einem Baerenmarkt.
Wenn Du allerdings von einem Bullenmarkt ausgehst fuer die naechsten Jahre, dann kann ich Dir nur empfehlen, dass Du die Finger von hedgern laesst, da kein hedger mE sein hedgebook derartig offenlaegt was margin calls und andere Risiken bei einem steigenden Goldpreis betrifft.
Kopier aber ruhig weiter die tollen Meldungen hier von irgendwelchen Analysten ....
fischli
Du kopierst nur einen Text hier rein, aber kommentierst nicht den Hintergrund.
Nur soviel:
Barrick hat die anderen, v.a. nicht gehedgten durch ihr Hedgebook "outperformed" - und zwar in einem Baerenmarkt.
Wenn Du allerdings von einem Bullenmarkt ausgehst fuer die naechsten Jahre, dann kann ich Dir nur empfehlen, dass Du die Finger von hedgern laesst, da kein hedger mE sein hedgebook derartig offenlaegt was margin calls und andere Risiken bei einem steigenden Goldpreis betrifft.
Kopier aber ruhig weiter die tollen Meldungen hier von irgendwelchen Analysten ....
fischli
TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 9, 2002--Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX, news, msgs)(TSX:ABX)(LSE:ABX)(SWX:ABX)(BOURSE:ABX) has successfully focused on organic growth and has an unrivalled pipeline of development projects.
Among them is its exciting new exploration discovery announced on April 23, 2002.
Barrick is pleased to hold a Conference Call and Webcast updating the investment community on its Alto Chicama discovery on:
WEDNESDAY JULY 10, 2002 AT 9:00 A.M., EDT
Randall Oliphant, President and Chief Executive Officer
Alex Davidson, Senior Vice President, Exploration
North American callers dial: 800-633-8680
Overseas callers dial: 416-641-6655
The Conference Call will be available for replay until July 17th by calling 800-558-5253, reservation #20746992 for North America and 416-626-4100, reservation #20746693 for overseas.
A live webcast of the Conference Call will be accessible on Barrick`s website at www.barrick.com
The Company`s Second Quarter results will be released on July 25th.
MEDIA AVAILABILITY SESSION:
Senior Management will also be available to the Media at 10:30 am
Royal Bank Plaza, South Tower
200 Bay Street, Suite 2700
Toronto, Ontario
CONTACT: Barrick Gold Corporation
Vincent Borg, 416/307-7477
416/861-1509 (Fax)
media@barrick.com
Among them is its exciting new exploration discovery announced on April 23, 2002.
Barrick is pleased to hold a Conference Call and Webcast updating the investment community on its Alto Chicama discovery on:
WEDNESDAY JULY 10, 2002 AT 9:00 A.M., EDT
Randall Oliphant, President and Chief Executive Officer
Alex Davidson, Senior Vice President, Exploration
North American callers dial: 800-633-8680
Overseas callers dial: 416-641-6655
The Conference Call will be available for replay until July 17th by calling 800-558-5253, reservation #20746992 for North America and 416-626-4100, reservation #20746693 for overseas.
A live webcast of the Conference Call will be accessible on Barrick`s website at www.barrick.com
The Company`s Second Quarter results will be released on July 25th.
MEDIA AVAILABILITY SESSION:
Senior Management will also be available to the Media at 10:30 am
Royal Bank Plaza, South Tower
200 Bay Street, Suite 2700
Toronto, Ontario
CONTACT: Barrick Gold Corporation
Vincent Borg, 416/307-7477
416/861-1509 (Fax)
media@barrick.com
Außerdem habe ich nicht nur Barrick im Depot liegen sondern auch noch folgende Werte, die ich auch empfehle:
Agnico-Eagle Mines: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Anglogold: a+4, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: a+4, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: buy, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: buy, a+4, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold:
Meridian Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Pan American Silver: buy, a+4, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Abwärtstrend
Randgold & Exploration: a+2, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Agnico-Eagle Mines: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Anglogold: a+4, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: a+4, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: buy, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: buy, a+4, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold:
Meridian Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Pan American Silver: buy, a+4, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Abwärtstrend
Randgold & Exploration: a+2, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
@peter.wedemeier1
mir ist auch aufgefallen dass Du schon zu Drooy
was gepostet hat
aber man sollte schon den Unterschied herausstellen
der
zwischen Gold Fields (Südafrika)
und Barrick Gold besteht.
Zusätzlich kann man anhand von Charts
erkennen wie stark der Preis
von Goldfields in den letzten 6 Monaten gestiegen ist
und wie stark der Preis von Barrick gestiegen ist.
Aber es ist auch eine Einstellungssache
ich gebe zu bei Goldfields hat man halt das Südafrika-Risiko
dabei.
Hoffe weiter auf gute Zusammenarbeit.
mir ist auch aufgefallen dass Du schon zu Drooy
was gepostet hat
aber man sollte schon den Unterschied herausstellen
der
zwischen Gold Fields (Südafrika)
und Barrick Gold besteht.
Zusätzlich kann man anhand von Charts
erkennen wie stark der Preis
von Goldfields in den letzten 6 Monaten gestiegen ist
und wie stark der Preis von Barrick gestiegen ist.
Aber es ist auch eine Einstellungssache
ich gebe zu bei Goldfields hat man halt das Südafrika-Risiko
dabei.
Hoffe weiter auf gute Zusammenarbeit.
@keepitshort
Nichts für ungut. Ich bin bei Barrick im Plus. Man muß das Timing kennen bei Barrick.
Nichts für ungut. Ich bin bei Barrick im Plus. Man muß das Timing kennen bei Barrick.
ABX und PDG aus dem S&P 500 geworfen, weil sie kanadische Unternehmen sind. Vielleicht werden diese beiden nun Ihre Untersützungsniveaus testen vor dem 19.07., wenn dieses in Kraft tritt. Unterstützung bei ABX $17,-, bei PDG $10,-. Langfristig wird dieses sich positiv für beide Unternehmen auswirken, weil sie nicht von einem fallenden Gesamtmarkt beeinträchtigt werden und von Indexverkäufen. Mit dem Rauswurf aus den S&P 500 und den Kürzungen bei den Hedges kommen beide Unternehmen ins Leben zurück zu dem Zeitpunkt, in dem wir einen bull market beim Gold haben.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Sehr geehrter Herr Wedemeier,
könnten Sie bitte versuchen, sich entweder in bestehende Diskussionsforen einzubringen oder einen eigenen one-stop-spot errichten. Damit kann man vermeiden, dass alle unter dem Schwachsinn, der so gepostet wird leiden müssen. Wenn ich für jeden Mist den ich hier poste einen neuen Tread eröffnen würde, hätte man mir schon irgendwelche Viren in meine Mailbox eingestellt!
Können Sie sich in einem der folgenden Profile finden:
____________________________________________
taz Nr. 6796 vom 10.7.2002, Seite 1, 32 Zeilen (Kommentar), Glosse
verboten*
Guten Tag,
meine Damen und Herren,
einer aktuellen Umfrage zufolge hält sich fast jeder vierte Deutsche für eine "sehr starke" oder wenigstens "starke" Persönlichkeit. Fast 28 Prozent der Deutschen sehen also in sich selbst eine Art Oliver Kahn respektive Uschi Glas, je nach Geschlecht. So weit, so gut.
Die Hälfte aller Deutschen aber glaubt, mit einer "mäßigen" oder gar "schwachen" Persönlichkeit gestraft zu sein. Halb Deutschland also "weiß nicht so recht", "traut sich nicht", will "lieber nicht stören" und dergleichen Gewinsel mehr.
verboten stellt fest: Wir sind ein Volk von Memmen und Schwanzeinkneifern.
Gut so, denn: Eine gewisse kantige, echte und erfolgreiche Kandidatenpersönlichkeit wird daraus schon ein neues Deutschland formen!
*verboten ist Knete in Doktor @mund Stoibers Händen.
____________________________________________
Du postest ja auch ne Menge interessanter Informationen - weiter so - aber bitte nicht für jede Info oder Aktie einen neuen Threat eröffnen. BIITTTTEEE!!!!
SVC
könnten Sie bitte versuchen, sich entweder in bestehende Diskussionsforen einzubringen oder einen eigenen one-stop-spot errichten. Damit kann man vermeiden, dass alle unter dem Schwachsinn, der so gepostet wird leiden müssen. Wenn ich für jeden Mist den ich hier poste einen neuen Tread eröffnen würde, hätte man mir schon irgendwelche Viren in meine Mailbox eingestellt!
Können Sie sich in einem der folgenden Profile finden:
____________________________________________
taz Nr. 6796 vom 10.7.2002, Seite 1, 32 Zeilen (Kommentar), Glosse
verboten*
Guten Tag,
meine Damen und Herren,
einer aktuellen Umfrage zufolge hält sich fast jeder vierte Deutsche für eine "sehr starke" oder wenigstens "starke" Persönlichkeit. Fast 28 Prozent der Deutschen sehen also in sich selbst eine Art Oliver Kahn respektive Uschi Glas, je nach Geschlecht. So weit, so gut.
Die Hälfte aller Deutschen aber glaubt, mit einer "mäßigen" oder gar "schwachen" Persönlichkeit gestraft zu sein. Halb Deutschland also "weiß nicht so recht", "traut sich nicht", will "lieber nicht stören" und dergleichen Gewinsel mehr.
verboten stellt fest: Wir sind ein Volk von Memmen und Schwanzeinkneifern.
Gut so, denn: Eine gewisse kantige, echte und erfolgreiche Kandidatenpersönlichkeit wird daraus schon ein neues Deutschland formen!
*verboten ist Knete in Doktor @mund Stoibers Händen.
____________________________________________
Du postest ja auch ne Menge interessanter Informationen - weiter so - aber bitte nicht für jede Info oder Aktie einen neuen Threat eröffnen. BIITTTTEEE!!!!
SVC
$316,- Gold versucht diese Marke zu brechen. Wenn diese Marke gebrochen ist, der nächste Widerstand wird $325,- sein. Go Gold Go!
Gold Derivatives
By Ian Williams
Tue 9 Jul 2002(11151)
LONDON (ShareCast) - There may be trouble brewing in the gold market. But for a change, this trouble will be good for gold bugs as an unusual confluence of events pushes gold, currently trading around $310 an ounce, to $400 and above. And it will prove very bad for any big-name banks caught on the wrong side of this price move.
The phenomenon revolves around a highly unusual form of gold derivatives, a market in which Citibank, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are the major players. The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges.
Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short.
Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company.
It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale contract, which it started using in 1990.
Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years.
While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
By Ian Williams
Tue 9 Jul 2002(11151)
LONDON (ShareCast) - There may be trouble brewing in the gold market. But for a change, this trouble will be good for gold bugs as an unusual confluence of events pushes gold, currently trading around $310 an ounce, to $400 and above. And it will prove very bad for any big-name banks caught on the wrong side of this price move.
The phenomenon revolves around a highly unusual form of gold derivatives, a market in which Citibank, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are the major players. The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges.
Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short.
Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company.
It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale contract, which it started using in 1990.
Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years.
While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.
If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain.
If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen.
Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations.
How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
You may have a question: How could a bank do something so risky?
Eight words give a clue to that:
Enron, Savings & Loans, Long-Term Capital Management.
Ian Williams is head of fixed-income and commodity research at
Durlacher.
Financi
If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain.
If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen.
Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations.
How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
You may have a question: How could a bank do something so risky?
Eight words give a clue to that:
Enron, Savings & Loans, Long-Term Capital Management.
Ian Williams is head of fixed-income and commodity research at
Durlacher.
Financi
Fallender Dollar, Markt Pessimismus
Ich denke der $ wird fortsetzen zu fallen. Auch der Gesamtmarkt sieht schön schlecht aus. so mehr Investoren werden möglicherweise suchen Schutz beim Gold. Graduelle Steigerung für diesen Sektor ist gegeben.
peter.wedemeier1
Ich denke der $ wird fortsetzen zu fallen. Auch der Gesamtmarkt sieht schön schlecht aus. so mehr Investoren werden möglicherweise suchen Schutz beim Gold. Graduelle Steigerung für diesen Sektor ist gegeben.
peter.wedemeier1
So, while stocks in other sectors were falling yesterday, gold producers gained ground in Toronto.
Barrick Gold Corp. rose 58¢ to $27.05. Placer Dome Inc. gained 39¢ to $16.60. The TSX sub-index of gold stocks was up 1% overall.
Yesterday`s growth came despite the fact it was Barrick`s and Placer`s last day in the benchmark S&P500 index.
The two largest gold producers are among the five Canadian companies dropped from the index to make it exclusively American.
"Gold is becoming a more viable alternative, especially considering low interest rates and falling stock markets around the world," said Mark Rzepczynski, president of John W. Henry in Boca Raton, Fla.
Placer needs every boost to its share price it can get as it forges ahead with its hostile, all-stock takeover bid for Australia`s largest gold producer, AurionGold Ltd. Aurion has attacked Placer`s offer because it contains no cash component and because Placer`s shares has fallen about 30% since the bid was made May 27.
Barrick Gold Corp. rose 58¢ to $27.05. Placer Dome Inc. gained 39¢ to $16.60. The TSX sub-index of gold stocks was up 1% overall.
Yesterday`s growth came despite the fact it was Barrick`s and Placer`s last day in the benchmark S&P500 index.
The two largest gold producers are among the five Canadian companies dropped from the index to make it exclusively American.
"Gold is becoming a more viable alternative, especially considering low interest rates and falling stock markets around the world," said Mark Rzepczynski, president of John W. Henry in Boca Raton, Fla.
Placer needs every boost to its share price it can get as it forges ahead with its hostile, all-stock takeover bid for Australia`s largest gold producer, AurionGold Ltd. Aurion has attacked Placer`s offer because it contains no cash component and because Placer`s shares has fallen about 30% since the bid was made May 27.
ABX ein exzellenter Kaufzeitpunkt!!!
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
ABX ein exzellenter Kaufzeitpunkt!!!
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
ABX ein exzellenter Kaufzeitpunkt!!!
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
ABX ein exzellenter Kaufzeitpunkt!!!
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
The particular form of derivative is a type of hedging pioneered by Barrick, one of the world`s largest gold producers and a leader in innovative hedges. Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside, but, other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, however, has managed to construct a hedge
that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Barrick has been a very good hedger, making use of all sorts of instruments and investment
strategies. In fact, at the end of 2001, its hedge book had assets of $5.5bn, which was more than the gold-mining
part of the company. It appears that part of this success comes from what is known as a spot deferred forward sale
contract, which it started using in 1990. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But - and this is what makes these contracts different and, indeed, dangerous for counter-parties - Barrick also had the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. Recently Barrick has entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. While deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally.
This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X 1m oz of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can
choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds - little risk and the highest price available.If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the 1m oz at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don`t have, which means you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfil your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble - which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant partof which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick`s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get
the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s.
Newsletters` 50 most-wanted stocks
...To me, the biggest surprise about this list is that just 2 gold stocks appear on it: Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile) and Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart, profile). Not only is the yellow metal coming off one of its strongest 12-month showings in years, in recent sessions it seems to have regained some steam following a several-week correction.
Since many investment newsletters got their start in the 1970s by recommending gold and mining shares, I would have thought that gold shares would have dominated the list of their 50 most popular.
The fact that they don`t is yet more confirmation of the skepticism with which newsletters currently have for the gold market. As I noted in my column last week, this skepticism actually is a bullish omen...
...To me, the biggest surprise about this list is that just 2 gold stocks appear on it: Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile) and Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart, profile). Not only is the yellow metal coming off one of its strongest 12-month showings in years, in recent sessions it seems to have regained some steam following a several-week correction.
Since many investment newsletters got their start in the 1970s by recommending gold and mining shares, I would have thought that gold shares would have dominated the list of their 50 most popular.
The fact that they don`t is yet more confirmation of the skepticism with which newsletters currently have for the gold market. As I noted in my column last week, this skepticism actually is a bullish omen...
Für alle, aus Zeitgründen ohne Kommentar:
"Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick`s derivative contracts) DROP by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."
"Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick`s spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this another 5 million in written call options, (which the company now calls `variable priced sales contracts`), and, one way or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"
Is this the company that so confidently hedged every years worth of production for almost 20 years?
"…the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"
Hier steht der ganze Text: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vaughn/may82002.html
Gruß
FID
"Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick`s derivative contracts) DROP by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."
"Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick`s spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this another 5 million in written call options, (which the company now calls `variable priced sales contracts`), and, one way or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"
Is this the company that so confidently hedged every years worth of production for almost 20 years?
"…the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"
Hier steht der ganze Text: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Vaughn/may82002.html
Gruß
FID
lieber Peter
in der Tat, ein genialer Einstag bei ABX heute.
in der Tat, ein genialer Einstag bei ABX heute.
Long Position geschlossen.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Long Position eröffnet.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Verstehe ich nicht was du mit deinen Longpositionen machst.
ll-Star Analyst Joe Hamilton Recommends the Following Stocks: ABX, MDG and Toronto: NGX Updated: Friday, July 26, 2002 06:02 AM ET
CHICAGO, July 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The market has beaten up gold stocks a bit over the past several days, but the unjustified pounding will stabilize in short order, according to Joe Hamilton, 5-Star gold analyst. Find out how this pro sees the gold landscape and which companies provide the best opportunity for profit and growth. http://www.allstarpicks.zacks.com .
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) is an international gold company with operating mines in the U.S., Canada, South America and Australia. The company has the largest market capitalization in its industry and produced 6.1 million ounces of gold at a total cash cost of $162 an ounce in 2001. Hamilton sees ABX as the best pick that an investor can make in the industry. The company is debt free, possesses the best balance sheet in the industry and has a conservatively run management team, which all helps to limit the downsize of ABX. Hamilton has set a price target for the company at $24. Hamilton sees 2002 and 2003 earnings of $0.45 and $0.62 respectively.
CHICAGO, July 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The market has beaten up gold stocks a bit over the past several days, but the unjustified pounding will stabilize in short order, according to Joe Hamilton, 5-Star gold analyst. Find out how this pro sees the gold landscape and which companies provide the best opportunity for profit and growth. http://www.allstarpicks.zacks.com .
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) is an international gold company with operating mines in the U.S., Canada, South America and Australia. The company has the largest market capitalization in its industry and produced 6.1 million ounces of gold at a total cash cost of $162 an ounce in 2001. Hamilton sees ABX as the best pick that an investor can make in the industry. The company is debt free, possesses the best balance sheet in the industry and has a conservatively run management team, which all helps to limit the downsize of ABX. Hamilton has set a price target for the company at $24. Hamilton sees 2002 and 2003 earnings of $0.45 and $0.62 respectively.
Interessante Information, die ich bei der letzten unnatürlichen Aktion beim Gold zusammen bekam. Jedermann wußte das JP Morgan und die Citigroup Gold Future Kontrakte stark geshortet hatten. Diese zwei großen Banken neben dem schwachen Dollar in starken Problemen und die Bombe würde platzen. Jedermann wußte auch, das Goldman Goldaktien akquiriert hatte und weiterhin akquiriert. Ktico zeigt an, das Goldman gerade vor einem schweren Verkauf beim Gold von einer europäischen Bank in der letzten Woche geshortet hatte. Wenn du an der Spitze der FED wärstund du wolltest verhindern, das diese zwei Großbanken in echte Schwierigkeiten kommen, du würdest Ihnen Gelegenheit geben, Ihre Shorts einzudecken, dann würdest du das Gold treffen und zuerst die anderen großen Player warnen (z. B. Goldman). Goldman ging Short bei den Futures um Ihre Long Positionen bei den Minenaktien zu schützen. Dann deckten sie Ihre Short Positionen nach dem Verkauf von Gold wieder ein und kauften sehr billig mehr Goldaktien ein. Und gestern empfahl Goldman groß Goldaktien in den USA. Goldaktien sollten sich nun langfristig gut entwickeln. Ich würde im Moment noch mehr einkaufen, bevor der Zug die Station verläßt.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Bullion off scrap heap
By YVONNE BALL
August 05, 2002
DISPLAYING perfect timing, gold has kicked higher just as a record 1000 delegates have converged on Kalgoorlie for today`s annual Diggers & Dealers talkfest.
After a dismal two weeks, bullion prices rose $US3 in New York to $US309 an ounce on Friday, still well down on the year`s high of $US330 but up on last week`s low of $US301.50.
A combination of factors have underpinned the metal`s resurgence this year, including a weaker US dollar, economic uncertainty amid accounting scandals in the US, equity market weakness as well as tension in the Middle East.
According to analysts, gold is at a critical juncture with the next few weeks crucial to its medium term outlook.
Representatives of some of the world`s biggest gold houses as well as the junior explorers will no doubt talk up gold`s prospects in Kalgoorlie over the next few days.
South African mining giant AngloGold has already started, saying in its June quarter report last Wednesday that favourable market circumstances for gold remain firmly in place and "should continue to support the price of gold going forward".
Many commentators seem to agree, with renewed US dollar weakness and soft equity markets expected to underpin support for the precious metal.
The forum`s 36 presenters and 104 exhibitors will also be selling their own stories to investors.
Following the industry`s rapid round of consolidation, AngloGold and other offshore giants, such as Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, which recently took over Normandy, will attract plenty of interest, as will AurionGold and its predator, Canada`s Placer Dome.
But despite the weaker gold prices in recent weeks, it is unlikely any of the record number of delegates will make way for the 50 hopefuls on the waiting list, particularly given that organisers have ordered in 8000 beers, 250 bottles of Moet Vintage, 2500 bottles of fine wine and 6000 kilograms of food.
Herald Sun
By YVONNE BALL
August 05, 2002
DISPLAYING perfect timing, gold has kicked higher just as a record 1000 delegates have converged on Kalgoorlie for today`s annual Diggers & Dealers talkfest.
After a dismal two weeks, bullion prices rose $US3 in New York to $US309 an ounce on Friday, still well down on the year`s high of $US330 but up on last week`s low of $US301.50.
A combination of factors have underpinned the metal`s resurgence this year, including a weaker US dollar, economic uncertainty amid accounting scandals in the US, equity market weakness as well as tension in the Middle East.
According to analysts, gold is at a critical juncture with the next few weeks crucial to its medium term outlook.
Representatives of some of the world`s biggest gold houses as well as the junior explorers will no doubt talk up gold`s prospects in Kalgoorlie over the next few days.
South African mining giant AngloGold has already started, saying in its June quarter report last Wednesday that favourable market circumstances for gold remain firmly in place and "should continue to support the price of gold going forward".
Many commentators seem to agree, with renewed US dollar weakness and soft equity markets expected to underpin support for the precious metal.
The forum`s 36 presenters and 104 exhibitors will also be selling their own stories to investors.
Following the industry`s rapid round of consolidation, AngloGold and other offshore giants, such as Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, which recently took over Normandy, will attract plenty of interest, as will AurionGold and its predator, Canada`s Placer Dome.
But despite the weaker gold prices in recent weeks, it is unlikely any of the record number of delegates will make way for the 50 hopefuls on the waiting list, particularly given that organisers have ordered in 8000 beers, 250 bottles of Moet Vintage, 2500 bottles of fine wine and 6000 kilograms of food.
Herald Sun
THE INDUSTRY ABANDONS "HEDGING"
You know from my past commentaries and reporting on gold that the practice of central banks’ selling or leasing gold to various parties--who, in the case of leased gold, then sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price later--was the chief factor in gold’s bear market declines. A close second, however, was the somewhat similar practice on the part of major gold producers to sell gold still in the ground, in order to lock in a certain price. Generally, the practice known as "hedging"--which took a few different forms, some of which were highly speculative--served to short-circuit any rallies in the gold price. It seemed that any time gold would get some traction, one or more big producers would "forward sell" large amounts of gold. In effect, this was their own vote of "no confidence" in gold’s ability to move higher, and their way of trying to keep cash flow and earnings afloat. In one sense, these companies could hardly be blamed for trying to do the best for their shareholders, given gold’s generally bearish environment for so long. Many, however, considered the hedgers--chief among them Barrick Gold and the above-mentioned Anglo Gold--as pariahs.
A "shot across the bow" for these larger concerns and others came in the spike in late 1999. To a certain extent--and without confusing you unduly in explaining it--the practice of hedging on the part of miners acts much the same way as does a short sale. For as long as the gold price stays at or below the price at which future production was sold, all is well. However, if the current, spot price rises much above that same level, the value of having made those hedges is diminished. Further, in the cases where miners themselves have actually borrowed gold outright (or entered into some kind of derivative contract) they can be faced with margin calls, negative values in their "hedge books," or both.
This happened during the 1999 spike to two companies. Ashanti Goldfields of Ghana racked up enormous paper losses on its derivative portfolio (i.e.--hedge book) and for a while teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Its banking counterparts who had "dibs" on these hedges had the ability to demand substantial cash payments from Ashanti, in order to cover the amounts by which the hedges were now in the red. At the eleventh hour--and assisted by the ultimately successful efforts to rein in gold’s advance--Ashanti managed to barely stay in business. Similarly, Canadian producer Cambior got into trouble with its hedge book.
Though these were the two most publicized examples, you’d better believe that hearts were suddenly pounding fast in other gold mining board rooms. All of a sudden, companies deemed by many (including themselves) as geniuses were being looked at with a jaundiced eye. Maybe it wouldn’t be good after all for some companies if gold did finally go up--and all of a sudden, those few investors interested at the time in gold demanded some answers as to how individual companies would fare if gold finally did turn around.
In the immediate aftermath of this near-disaster, a couple companies came out and announced they were moving away from the practice of hedging. Early on, these announcements--led initially by Placer Dome and Gold Fields--were motivated as much by the companies’ desires to allay fears over their solvency as by any real confidence that gold’s bear market was drawing to a close. Still, there did not seem to be an industry-wide consensus--or motivation--for a practically wholesale abandonment of the practice of hedging.
That changed, however, with the closing in January of Newmont Mining’s acquisition of Canadian-based Franco Nevada, and the Australian miner Normandy. As you’ll remember, I wrote extensively on the months-long struggle between Newmont and Anglo Gold for Normandy in particular; and, far from being your typical battle over an appealing target, this turned into a battle between hedgers (Anglo) and non-hedgers (Newmont.) The non-hedgers won; and both leading up to its acquisition and since, Newmont--now the world’s largest producer--has worn its status on its sleeve.
A number of long-time gold market bulls pointed to Newmont’s victory as the most significant gold market event in decades. And so it was. For, one by one, the most notable hedgers among gold producers have come out and embraced the old-time religion of being bullish for and an advocate of their own product. Before they’d hardly had time to lick their wounds and swallow some pride after losing the battle for Normandy, Anglo Gold came out and said that it would rather switch than fight. In a series of announcements, the big South African miner has said it is "aggressively" unwinding its hedge book.
In a February 5 interview with the Financial Times, Anglo’s Executive Director for Marketing Kelvin Williams indicated that his company would allow its hedge book to "erode" during 2002, while watching for "upside opportunities."
"We think there is a solid floor under the physical gold market," he explained. "And there is no longer a constituency of speculators eager to play the market from the short side. . ."
As gold’s price has continued to rise this Spring, Anglo has occasionally repeated its earlier announcements that it was unwinding its hedges, so as to take better advantage of the rising cash price. Especially conspicuous in recent weeks, though, has been the management of Barrick Gold, the so-called "king" of the hedgers. That company has--similarly to Anglo--been going out of its way at times to assure the market and its own investors that, (1) it, too, is unwinding its hedge book and now selling at least some production into the spot market for the first time in many years, and (2) it has no intention of short-circuiting the rise in gold’s price by adding new hedges.
Except in the most learned gold bug circles and among those who have taken the time to analyze the markets, this story has not received nearly sufficient attention. Coupled with the declining mine supply, the virtual wholesale abandonment of hedging has written the epitaph to the long, nasty bear market endured by gold for so long.
You know from my past commentaries and reporting on gold that the practice of central banks’ selling or leasing gold to various parties--who, in the case of leased gold, then sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price later--was the chief factor in gold’s bear market declines. A close second, however, was the somewhat similar practice on the part of major gold producers to sell gold still in the ground, in order to lock in a certain price. Generally, the practice known as "hedging"--which took a few different forms, some of which were highly speculative--served to short-circuit any rallies in the gold price. It seemed that any time gold would get some traction, one or more big producers would "forward sell" large amounts of gold. In effect, this was their own vote of "no confidence" in gold’s ability to move higher, and their way of trying to keep cash flow and earnings afloat. In one sense, these companies could hardly be blamed for trying to do the best for their shareholders, given gold’s generally bearish environment for so long. Many, however, considered the hedgers--chief among them Barrick Gold and the above-mentioned Anglo Gold--as pariahs.
A "shot across the bow" for these larger concerns and others came in the spike in late 1999. To a certain extent--and without confusing you unduly in explaining it--the practice of hedging on the part of miners acts much the same way as does a short sale. For as long as the gold price stays at or below the price at which future production was sold, all is well. However, if the current, spot price rises much above that same level, the value of having made those hedges is diminished. Further, in the cases where miners themselves have actually borrowed gold outright (or entered into some kind of derivative contract) they can be faced with margin calls, negative values in their "hedge books," or both.
This happened during the 1999 spike to two companies. Ashanti Goldfields of Ghana racked up enormous paper losses on its derivative portfolio (i.e.--hedge book) and for a while teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Its banking counterparts who had "dibs" on these hedges had the ability to demand substantial cash payments from Ashanti, in order to cover the amounts by which the hedges were now in the red. At the eleventh hour--and assisted by the ultimately successful efforts to rein in gold’s advance--Ashanti managed to barely stay in business. Similarly, Canadian producer Cambior got into trouble with its hedge book.
Though these were the two most publicized examples, you’d better believe that hearts were suddenly pounding fast in other gold mining board rooms. All of a sudden, companies deemed by many (including themselves) as geniuses were being looked at with a jaundiced eye. Maybe it wouldn’t be good after all for some companies if gold did finally go up--and all of a sudden, those few investors interested at the time in gold demanded some answers as to how individual companies would fare if gold finally did turn around.
In the immediate aftermath of this near-disaster, a couple companies came out and announced they were moving away from the practice of hedging. Early on, these announcements--led initially by Placer Dome and Gold Fields--were motivated as much by the companies’ desires to allay fears over their solvency as by any real confidence that gold’s bear market was drawing to a close. Still, there did not seem to be an industry-wide consensus--or motivation--for a practically wholesale abandonment of the practice of hedging.
That changed, however, with the closing in January of Newmont Mining’s acquisition of Canadian-based Franco Nevada, and the Australian miner Normandy. As you’ll remember, I wrote extensively on the months-long struggle between Newmont and Anglo Gold for Normandy in particular; and, far from being your typical battle over an appealing target, this turned into a battle between hedgers (Anglo) and non-hedgers (Newmont.) The non-hedgers won; and both leading up to its acquisition and since, Newmont--now the world’s largest producer--has worn its status on its sleeve.
A number of long-time gold market bulls pointed to Newmont’s victory as the most significant gold market event in decades. And so it was. For, one by one, the most notable hedgers among gold producers have come out and embraced the old-time religion of being bullish for and an advocate of their own product. Before they’d hardly had time to lick their wounds and swallow some pride after losing the battle for Normandy, Anglo Gold came out and said that it would rather switch than fight. In a series of announcements, the big South African miner has said it is "aggressively" unwinding its hedge book.
In a February 5 interview with the Financial Times, Anglo’s Executive Director for Marketing Kelvin Williams indicated that his company would allow its hedge book to "erode" during 2002, while watching for "upside opportunities."
"We think there is a solid floor under the physical gold market," he explained. "And there is no longer a constituency of speculators eager to play the market from the short side. . ."
As gold’s price has continued to rise this Spring, Anglo has occasionally repeated its earlier announcements that it was unwinding its hedges, so as to take better advantage of the rising cash price. Especially conspicuous in recent weeks, though, has been the management of Barrick Gold, the so-called "king" of the hedgers. That company has--similarly to Anglo--been going out of its way at times to assure the market and its own investors that, (1) it, too, is unwinding its hedge book and now selling at least some production into the spot market for the first time in many years, and (2) it has no intention of short-circuiting the rise in gold’s price by adding new hedges.
Except in the most learned gold bug circles and among those who have taken the time to analyze the markets, this story has not received nearly sufficient attention. Coupled with the declining mine supply, the virtual wholesale abandonment of hedging has written the epitaph to the long, nasty bear market endured by gold for so long.
>Dehedging supports gold price
By: Peter Gonnella
Posted: 2002/08/12 Mon 20:00 ZE8 | © Miningweb 1997-2002
PERTH – Hedging has returned to the spotlight in the wake of the June quarter reporting season, expectations of a further reduction in US interest rates and, according to a leading global gold analyst, widespread rumours last week attributing the rise in gold prices to a large producer buyback.
One of the fundamental differences in the gold market recovery this year compared with the most recent shortlived rallies has been producer dehedging. "Producer dehedging, which we define as reductions in producer hedge books (largely due to delivery into existing positions without renewal, as distinct from an actual buyback), has of course been one of the major changes in the gold market this year," said Macquarie Bank analyst Kamal Naqvi. He believed the strategic running down of hedge books was inspired by: lower interest rates lessening the attractiveness of forward selling; the downward trend in gold prices appearing to be over; and shareholders and market sentiment pressuring gold producers to reduce and simplify hedge books, partly due to a positive outlook for gold prices, but also because of Enron-type concerns about transparency and predictability of earnings related to derivatives.
In the June quarter AngloGold chopped its hedge book by a thumping 2.4 million ounces (or 73 tonnes) down to a committed 10.5Moz, following up the sizeable reduction in the hedge book of 1.7Moz in the previous quarter (for a half year total of 4.1Moz).
"This process has the effect of both delivering new production off the spot market and adding a certain amount of producer buying to investor demand," the company said. "This has increased the positive impact on the price of incremental investor buying."
AngloGold`s latest hedge book equated to about 17 per cent of its total reserves and only 3 per cent of resources. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corp [NYSE:ABX] reduced its hedge commitments by 2.45Moz during the June quarter (total of 2.65Moz for the half) to 17.9Moz or 22 per cent of reserves and just under 14 per cent of resources. Barrick has halved intended delivery into contracts from 100 to 50 per cent of production with the balance to be sold at prevailing spot prices.
According to Macquarie data, the combined global gold hedge position had fallen by more than 9.0Moz in the first half of the calendar year. AngloGold, Barrick and others stated they would continue to manage their hedge programs with a view to increasing their leverage to the spot price.
Though AngloGold and Barrick planned to take their feet off the pedal in terms of accelerated dehedging in the second half of the year as they had reached more comfortable hedging levels, which pointed to a possible slowdown in dehedging. "Hence, concern that we have already seen the peak in terms of hedge book reductions may well be justified," said Naqvi. But Newmont Mining [NYSE,ASX:NEM] might help take up the slack, signalling it would pick up the pace of unwinding the large complex book inherited from Normandy Mining. Chairman Pierre Lassonde said last week Newmont was shooting for a gold hedge delivery or close-out target of around 1Moz for the remainder of this year and an additional 1.8Moz in 2003.
Also buttressing gold was the strong indication the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. "Another cut … may well assist further reductions in gold producer hedge books," Naqvi said, suggesting lower interest rates would probably cause gold contangos to fall even lower and therefore take the premium out of forward selling. "In fact, if forecasts of a 50-75 basis cut in US interest rates occur, we could well see the lowest sustained contango levels ever."
The London-based analyst said this was where the potential for stepped up producer buybacks came into play. "By flattening the forward curve, lower interest rates normally reduce the market-to-market loss that can be crystallised during a buyback," he said. "Hence, the cost of buybacks tend to fall in line with interest rates."
There was a flipside to the contango argument. "Falling interest rates may encourage any project-related hedging to occur sooner rather than later or may discourage hedge book reductions from those gold producers who may want to sell forward in the coming months," Naqvi explained. "After all, with falling contangos, it will be increasingly difficult to replace hedge positions at attractive levels unless spot prices rally."
However, on the whole, he felt further cuts in interest rates would subdue the incentive to enter into large-scale forward selling contracts in the near term.
"We expect gold to continue to be largely dictated by movements in other markets – namely, broad US equity markets, the US dollar and (largely US) gold equities," Naqvi said, but added producer dehedging could become a key indicator in the next few weeks.
Spot gold held its gains from Friday and had moved US$5/oz higher today (Monday) to US$319/oz at the time of writing. Gold stocks in Australia generally benefited from the upbeat sentiment. On the ASX, AngloGold ended the day on A$8.30 (up A$0.10), AurionGold [ASX:AOR] also finished in positive territory at A$3.27 (up A$0.09), as did Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM] on A$6.54 (up A$0.03), Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG] A$1.21 (up A$0.06), Newmont A$4.90 (up A$0.33); Durban Roodepoort Deep [ASX
RD] A$5.90 (up A$0.30), Placer Dome [ASX:PDG] A$17.00 (up A$0.50) and Croesus Mining [ASX:CRS] A$0.62 (up A$0.04).
By: Peter Gonnella
Posted: 2002/08/12 Mon 20:00 ZE8 | © Miningweb 1997-2002
PERTH – Hedging has returned to the spotlight in the wake of the June quarter reporting season, expectations of a further reduction in US interest rates and, according to a leading global gold analyst, widespread rumours last week attributing the rise in gold prices to a large producer buyback.
One of the fundamental differences in the gold market recovery this year compared with the most recent shortlived rallies has been producer dehedging. "Producer dehedging, which we define as reductions in producer hedge books (largely due to delivery into existing positions without renewal, as distinct from an actual buyback), has of course been one of the major changes in the gold market this year," said Macquarie Bank analyst Kamal Naqvi. He believed the strategic running down of hedge books was inspired by: lower interest rates lessening the attractiveness of forward selling; the downward trend in gold prices appearing to be over; and shareholders and market sentiment pressuring gold producers to reduce and simplify hedge books, partly due to a positive outlook for gold prices, but also because of Enron-type concerns about transparency and predictability of earnings related to derivatives.
In the June quarter AngloGold chopped its hedge book by a thumping 2.4 million ounces (or 73 tonnes) down to a committed 10.5Moz, following up the sizeable reduction in the hedge book of 1.7Moz in the previous quarter (for a half year total of 4.1Moz).
"This process has the effect of both delivering new production off the spot market and adding a certain amount of producer buying to investor demand," the company said. "This has increased the positive impact on the price of incremental investor buying."
AngloGold`s latest hedge book equated to about 17 per cent of its total reserves and only 3 per cent of resources. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corp [NYSE:ABX] reduced its hedge commitments by 2.45Moz during the June quarter (total of 2.65Moz for the half) to 17.9Moz or 22 per cent of reserves and just under 14 per cent of resources. Barrick has halved intended delivery into contracts from 100 to 50 per cent of production with the balance to be sold at prevailing spot prices.
According to Macquarie data, the combined global gold hedge position had fallen by more than 9.0Moz in the first half of the calendar year. AngloGold, Barrick and others stated they would continue to manage their hedge programs with a view to increasing their leverage to the spot price.
Though AngloGold and Barrick planned to take their feet off the pedal in terms of accelerated dehedging in the second half of the year as they had reached more comfortable hedging levels, which pointed to a possible slowdown in dehedging. "Hence, concern that we have already seen the peak in terms of hedge book reductions may well be justified," said Naqvi. But Newmont Mining [NYSE,ASX:NEM] might help take up the slack, signalling it would pick up the pace of unwinding the large complex book inherited from Normandy Mining. Chairman Pierre Lassonde said last week Newmont was shooting for a gold hedge delivery or close-out target of around 1Moz for the remainder of this year and an additional 1.8Moz in 2003.
Also buttressing gold was the strong indication the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. "Another cut … may well assist further reductions in gold producer hedge books," Naqvi said, suggesting lower interest rates would probably cause gold contangos to fall even lower and therefore take the premium out of forward selling. "In fact, if forecasts of a 50-75 basis cut in US interest rates occur, we could well see the lowest sustained contango levels ever."
The London-based analyst said this was where the potential for stepped up producer buybacks came into play. "By flattening the forward curve, lower interest rates normally reduce the market-to-market loss that can be crystallised during a buyback," he said. "Hence, the cost of buybacks tend to fall in line with interest rates."
There was a flipside to the contango argument. "Falling interest rates may encourage any project-related hedging to occur sooner rather than later or may discourage hedge book reductions from those gold producers who may want to sell forward in the coming months," Naqvi explained. "After all, with falling contangos, it will be increasingly difficult to replace hedge positions at attractive levels unless spot prices rally."
However, on the whole, he felt further cuts in interest rates would subdue the incentive to enter into large-scale forward selling contracts in the near term.
"We expect gold to continue to be largely dictated by movements in other markets – namely, broad US equity markets, the US dollar and (largely US) gold equities," Naqvi said, but added producer dehedging could become a key indicator in the next few weeks.
Spot gold held its gains from Friday and had moved US$5/oz higher today (Monday) to US$319/oz at the time of writing. Gold stocks in Australia generally benefited from the upbeat sentiment. On the ASX, AngloGold ended the day on A$8.30 (up A$0.10), AurionGold [ASX:AOR] also finished in positive territory at A$3.27 (up A$0.09), as did Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM] on A$6.54 (up A$0.03), Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG] A$1.21 (up A$0.06), Newmont A$4.90 (up A$0.33); Durban Roodepoort Deep [ASX
RD] A$5.90 (up A$0.30), Placer Dome [ASX:PDG] A$17.00 (up A$0.50) and Croesus Mining [ASX:CRS] A$0.62 (up A$0.04).
Date : August 16, 2002
Evidence That Major Culture Shock Is Already Underway At World Gold Council.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Aug-2…
Evidence That Major Culture Shock Is Already Underway At World Gold Council.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Aug-2…
Long Position geschlossen.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
???????????
Hurra ! Das war`s , worauf wir alle gewartet haben !
Insiderin007
Insiderin007
Barrick Gold hat riesige Vorwärtsverkäufe
und bei www.usagold.com im Forum haben
die schon vermutet dass wenn Barrick
seine Vorwärtsverkäufe weiterhin mit diesem
Schnecken-Tempo abbauen
dann dürfte im Jahr 2010 Barrick seine
Hedge-Position abgebaut haben.
wer kurzfirstig kaufen will der sollte auch
schnell wieder mit Gewinn verkaufen
denn bei einem steigenden Goldpreis
ist Barrick eine Looser-Aktie
die von Banken empfohlen wir
eben eine Art "Neue Markt" Aktie
viel investieren viel verlieren.
und bei www.usagold.com im Forum haben
die schon vermutet dass wenn Barrick
seine Vorwärtsverkäufe weiterhin mit diesem
Schnecken-Tempo abbauen
dann dürfte im Jahr 2010 Barrick seine
Hedge-Position abgebaut haben.
wer kurzfirstig kaufen will der sollte auch
schnell wieder mit Gewinn verkaufen
denn bei einem steigenden Goldpreis
ist Barrick eine Looser-Aktie
die von Banken empfohlen wir
eben eine Art "Neue Markt" Aktie
viel investieren viel verlieren.
Barrick wird momentan von den wichtigen Goldtradern gemieden. Schaut euch eher mal Placer Dome an, die schon wieder angefaßt wird!.
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