AMP: Zusätzliche Belastungen in Höhe von 1,7 Mrd. AU$? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[NakedCowboy]

Fears of $1.7bn top-up strain AMP
By Anthony Hughes
Sydney
Sharon Kemp
October 21, 2003

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AMP shares were back in the doldrums yesterday as concerns lingered that the demerged British arm, HHG, could require as much as £700 million ($A1.7 billion) of additional capital on top of that already announced.

In addition, investor fury grew at the company`s belated disclosure of $38.4 million in "golden handcuffs" to staff.

A source inside the company suggests fund managers are the largest group of AMP staff in line to receive large retention payments out of a pool of $38.4 million at June 30 next year.

This disclosure points to AMP`s fear of a mass exit of fund managers, particularly from the British operation, HHG, once it is separated from Australia.

AMP shares fell 11¢ to $6.68, with analysts increasingly bearish about the prospects of HHG as they delve into the 634-page explanatory memorandum (EM).

Salomon Smith Barney`s Nigel Pittaway said in a note to investors that HHG could trade at as much as a 40 per cent discount to its embedded value or insurance valuation. He cut combined AMP earnings forecasts for 2004 and 2005 by 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively to factor in increased pension costs of £17 million.

The EM released on Thursday disclosed that a HHG pension contribution holiday is over from January 1, adding to the pressure on its fragile capital position.

"Despite management claims to have de-risked the business, 22 pages of risks in the EM bring home the difficulties HHG faces," Mr Pittaway said.

The EM also discloses that AMP`s British life funds have £125 million in free capital over and above £20.6 billion in liabilities, enough to satisfy the regulator that it can meet obligations to policyholders.

This is contingent on the British financial regulator allowing it to count a £400 million so-called "implicit item" and £210 million of Henderson goodwill as admissible in this calculation.

Wilson HTM analyst Brett Le Mesurier said that, including the uncertain treatment of £250 million of financial reinsurance relied upon by AMP life fund National Provident, HHG may need another £700 million if the regulator did not allow these items to be counted over time.

In the case of the implicit item, it is applied subject to a waiver from the Financial Services Authority that expires next month. "AMP will be seeking a renewal and expects it to be granted, but this waiver may not last forever," Mr Le Mesurier said.

An AMP spokesman said: "Throughout the UK there is widespread use of waivers by life companies in the calculation of the required minimum margins. As stipulated in the EM, the HHG directors are not currently aware of any indication that the waivers won`t be renewed."

But Mr Le Mesurier said HHG was also unlikely to pay a dividend for many years, perhaps not in this decade. "It is also experiencing adverse lapse experience, with the policies that it would rather retain lapsing at an increasing rate. Future profits will be adversely affected if this continues. Unfortunately there is insufficient clarity in the company`s financial statements for us to estimate the impact of this factor."

AMP`s falling share price makes AMP a target for acquisitors, among them National Australia Bank. AMP shareholders will vote on December 9 on separating the operations.



Wenn das tatsächlich der Fall ist wird die Aktie ganz schön unter Druck geraten:






Ich würde im Moment eher short gehen.

NC

[NakedCowboy]

Chart von AMP tendiert wie erwartet nach Süden.


NC

[NakedCowboy]

scheint sich schon wieder gefangen zu haben. Trotzdem würde ich AMP im Moment eher meiden.


NC

[Traderandy]

stimmt, absolut uninteressant und riskant zur Zeit.

[NakedCowboy]

trotz allem hält sich die Aktie erstaunlich gut. Naja andererseits, die Märkte laufen ja allgemein gen Norden...


NC

[Traderandy]

[Traderandy]

auf 5 könnte es schon noch mal runter gehen denke ich.


Traderandy

[Gewuerzburg]

AMP falls on fears of low HHG issue price
By Anthony Hughes
December 2, 2003

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AMP shares were back under pressure yesterday as Friday`s plan to fast-track a £100 million ($238 million) ordinary equity raising for the soon-to-be-demerged UK arm, HHG, cast doubts over the value of the combined group.

Citigroup Smith Barney said the issue price of the new HHG scrip "seems likely to be under $1 a share", lowering the valuation of HHG and the new AMP.

AMP shares fell 4c to $5.91 as the company enters the final days of its arduous demerger process, with shareholders set to finally vote on the deal in Sydney next Tuesday.

Friday`s release of listing particulars for HHG included the disclosure that two of HHG/AMP`s UK life funds, Pearl and London Life, had renewed waivers from the UK`s Financial Services Authority, enabling the funds to include more than £400 million in regulatory solvency calculations.

The waivers expired at the end of the last month and, according to the HHG offer document, the FSA "has indicated that it would be prepared to renew the waivers".


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The document acknowledges HHG could have to raise additional capital if there is a breach of minimum capital requirements.

ABN Amro analyst Nick Caley said in a note there was significant uncertainty in determining fair values for the two new entities ahead of the split, but retained a valuation of $6.20, comprising $4.91 for AMP and $1.30 for HHG.

AMP is taking 272 million shares in HHG or 15 per cent but this will be diluted by the new issue. AMP can sell some shares after the interim 2004 results, another potential depressant on the HHG price.

Citigroup said the HHG offer price lowered its valuation on the combined AMP to $6.50, including a $5.40 takeover value for the new AMP and $1.10 for HHG.

"But there remains significant probability that the initial HHG listing price could be well below this level as there are several risk factors whose impact is hard to quantify," the broker said.

The offer document also spells out that AMP will have no stated ongoing liabilities to HHG, though via the 15 per cent stake, AMP will be represented on the HHG board by Pat Handley.

AMP managing director Andrew Mohl will also be on the HHG board. While many of HHG shareholders initially will be Australians, HHG will hold its annual meetings in London, where HHG will be also listed.

[Gewuerzburg]

AMP shareholders prepare to vote on demerger (second update)
Source: SYDNEY, Dec 5 AAP
Published: Friday December 5 2003, 2:45 PM

AMP Ltd`s beleaguered shareholders will finally get to have their say next week on the group`s controversial plan to split its Australasian and British operations.

Hundreds of investors are expected to pack Sydney`s Horden Pavilion on Tuesday to hear details of AMP`s demerger plan and vote on the proposal.

Market watchers believe the plan will win approval from AMP`s investors, clearing the way for separate stock market listings for the Australasian and British businesses.

"I can`t see it having any problems," JP Morgan insurance analyst Shane Fitzgerald said. advertisement

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"The only way I can see it being a problem is if retail investors don`t appear, but it shouldn`t be a problem.

"There`s no point voting against it when all is said and done."

The Australian Shareholders Association intends to vote in favour of the demerger at Tuesday`s meeting.

"There might be a lot of venting of anger (at the meeting by shareholders) but everything has been said and done," ASA spokesman Michael Perry said.

"We think the demerger is the best way of having some chance of the company digging it way out of its problems, at least in Australia."

AMP`s shares got a bit of a nudge today amid hopes that National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) was still interested in taking over part of the financial services group.

The stock jumped back over the $6.00 mark briefly in early trading before paring their gains. They were trading three cents higher at $5.89 at 1430 AEDT.

NAB announced after the market closed yesterday that it would take part in AMP`s $1.19 billion rights issue.

Analysts said investors were hopeful that NAB`s decision to take part in the rights issue indicated that the banking giant was still keen to takeover AMP`s Australasian operations after the demerger.

Some also noted that by taking part in the rights offer, NAB`s 2.2 per cent direct stake in AMP would not be diluted.

The bank`s MLC funds management business also owns a 2.7 per cent stake in AMP.

NAB last month raised concerns about AMP`s demerger plan, criticising the financial services group`s decision to keep a 15 per cent stake in its soon-to-be-spun-off UK-based HHG plc.

Those comments came after NAB`s botched share raid on AMP in August and its statement that it would not be interested in acquiring AMP while it still had control of its troubled British operations.

Goldman Sachs JBWere banking analysts Leigh Cronin and James Freeman said they believed NAB`s decision to take part in the rights issue would ensure its 2.2 per cent stake in AMP would not be diluted.

By Belinda Tasker

[Gewuerzburg]

AMP talking to Horlick rivals
Bill Condie in Sydney, Evening Standard
8 December 2003

PECULATION was mounting today that star fund manager* Nicola Horlick`s plans for a future life Down Under were unravelling.







Australian financial services group AMP said it was yet to finalise her employment terms and that it was talking to rival candidates.



Horlick`s deal to manage about £30bn of funds was thought to have been sealed, after she last week told the London Evening Standard of her plans for a future in Sydney.



But today, after weekend reports in London that she would not be taking the job, AMP would only say: `Discussions continue with Mrs Horlick, but a contract is yet to be signed.`



A spokesman for AMP in Sydney also said the firm was talking to a number of people about the role at the head of AMP Capital Investors - the former AMP Henderson Asset Management.



Horlick, nicknamed `Superwoman` for her ability to juggle a high-powered City career while bringing up a young family and nursing her daughter Georgina through a 10-year battle with cancer - which she lost - had said she was looking forward to the challenge.



Last week, she talked of already `taking the job` and a £340,000 salary plus bonuses.



In the Evening Standard interview she ruled out standing as a Tory MP at the next General Election, although she admitted she had considered it.



The family are thought to have been in Sydney settling into their new home before Horlick was apparently due to start at AMP in the New Year.