THAI FARMERS etc. - Merrill Studie im Volltext: BUY !! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

23/02/00 THAILAND: RESEARCH ALERT-BUY THAI BANKS -MERRILL.
BANGKOK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Thai bank shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks and are now good value, Merrill Lynch said on Wednesday.
Merrill Lynch Phatra Securities co-chief executive officer Michael Unsworth said the brokerage believed the price of many Thai bank stocks now presented a good fundamental entry level.
"We have buy or accumulate recommendations on Bangkok Bank , Thai Farmers Bank , Siam Commercial Bank and DBS Thai Danu Bank ," he told Reuters.
Merrill said in a report dated February 22 that further selling of Thai banks from current levels was unjustified.
"We believe that secular trends for the (banking) sector continue to improve, despite near-term `noise`," it said.
It said the sector is trading on a premium of 11 percent over 2000 estimated earnings, down from 18 percent on January 19, and a 4.1 times price over book value.
The report said the market was concerned about two main issues: worries that bank non-performing loans (NPLs) were rising, and that Bangkok Bank`s exposure to a delayed debt restructuring of Thailand`s biggest corporate debtor, Thai Petrochemical Industry (TPI), would force the bank into immediate recapitalisation.
"We believe both concerns are overdone," it said.
It quoted Bank of Thailand data saying new bank NPLs were indeed occurring at a rate of about one percent of industry loans per month but it said this was being mitigated by companies that were rehabilitating their own NPLs.
It said Bangkok Bank carried specific provisions for at least half the on-balance-sheet portion of its loans.
"Thus Bangkok Bank could suffer an immediate 30 percent loss on the exposure without having to make additional provisions," it said.

Merrill Lynch has the following recommendations on Thai
banks:
Bank Price Intermediate Long-term
23/2/00 (baht)
Bangkok Bank* 69.50 Accumulate Buy
Bangkok Bank 44.75 Buy Buy
Thai Farmers* 40.25 Accumulate Buy
Thai Farmers 34.75 Buy Buy
Siam Commercial* 32.25 Accumulate Buy
Siam Commercial 32.00 Accumulate Buy
Krung Thai Bank* 14.50 Reduce Neutral
Krung Thai Bank 14.50 Reduce Neutral
Bank of Ayudhya* 10.50 Neutral Neutral
Bank of Ayudhya 10.75 Neutral Neutral
Bank of Asia! 17.75 Accumulate Buy
DBS Thai Danu Bank 15.25 Buy Buy

* Shares on Stock Exchange of Thailand Foreign board
! Bank of Asia is majority-owned by Dutch bank ABN Amro

DBS Thai Danu Bank is majority-owned by the Development Bank
of Singapore
((Bangkok newsroom [phone] ext 410
e-mail: [e-mail])).
(C) Reuters Limited 2000.
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

[Thoemsi]

Na das sind ja geile Nachrichten,
dann war das wohl die Studie , die gestern in der Telebörse erwähnt worden ist.

Jungs, wir sind schon in den richtigen Teilen investiert, da kann sogar unser
"Supermilchbubi" Keith aus Frankfurt nichts daran ändern.

dieses Jahr sehen wir bei TFB die 3,50 und mehr...

[Informator]

am 1 Maerz kommt uebrigens der Tag der Wende, das Gericht entscheidet dann den TPI-Fall. Davon haengt das Vertrauen der internat Anleger ab. Eine Pro-Bank Entscheidung bedeutet Kapitalzufluss, und bei den ausgebombten Kursen und den engen Maerkten sind fuer die Banken schnell >100% drin (wie immer wenn es richtig hoch geht). Auch ein Moodys Rating-upgrade ist dann drin, und das wuerde einen beispiellosen Bull Run ausloesen. Von dem Urteil haengt dies ab, und es steht mehr als 50% fuer "Pro-Bank", allerdings nicht 100% (Marktkommentare in der Scene)

Wirtschafts- und Exportwachstum : Prognosen 2000 wurden wieder mal nach OBEN korrigiert.