BP ein Kauf (Seite 575)

[cathunter]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.391.767 von Wubsoofer am 16.07.12 20:38:33

Das wäre die ultimative Lösung, auf zu neuen Ufern, weit weg vom Amiland.

[Milesstyles]

Morgen,

http://www.financial.de/rohstoffe/rohstoff-news/breaking-new…

der Letzte Satz ist entscheidend. AAR wird sich am Donnerstag zu dem weiteren Vorgehen äußern..

so dann warten wir es ab; es bleibt spannend

VG Miles

[Wubsoofer]

Jetzt wirds mal richtig geil...

"AAR ready to sell stake to BP for cash and stock"

http://rt.com/business/news/aar-ready-to-sell-stake-to-bp-fo…

[Milesstyles]

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/bp-russia-aar-idIND…

Wenn ich wählen dürfte, würde mir diese Option am besten gefallen. AAR verkauft für um die 28-32Mrd. das Paket an BP, und die wiederum schieben das Paket-besser noch- nur die Hälfte weiter an Rosneft. SO dann bekommen wir Arktis-Anteile im WErt von ca. 15 Mrd.

Würde aber heissen, dass wir mit GOM iwoher kurzfristig 50 Mrd. bekommen sollten...hmm.. mal gespannt, ob Bob grad dick auf Fundraising-Tour ist.

das wäre der Big-Bang, BP wäre zurück, und von mir aus können wir auch im Gegenzug das komplette USA Down und Upstream GEschäft verscherbeln.

Zur Thematik mit Rosneft-Staatskonzern-Enteignung-Kein FairPlay ist folgendes aus meiner Sicht zu sagen: Dadurch dass sich die Parnter mehren Exxon Royal Duch, und evtl noch ein paar andere, minimiert sich das Risiko, dass so ein Szenario realistisch wird..schließlich würden die anderen Partner auch richtig verkrault werden...

[cathunter]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.389.038 von DJHLS am 16.07.12 09:18:43

Ja, aber...

Da steht doch geschätzte 25 Mrd. USD und weisst du aus welchen "zuverlälssigen Quellen" diese Schätzung stammt ? Wir kennen doch alle die Journailie.

Allerdings wäre, sollte das stimmen dann schon ziemlich sicher, dass dann der Kurs wieder in die "Grütze" gehen würde.

Dann sollte Dudley auch gleich seinen Hut nehmen, denn weit unter Wert braucht man den Anteil nicht zu verramschen, da ist es sinnvoller investiert zu bleiben, auf den richtigen Zeitpunkt zu warten und weiterhin die Gewinne einzustreichen. 25 Mrd. USD für ein Viertel der Produktion ist ja wohl ein schlechter Witz.

[DJHLS]

Zitat von Wubsoofer: Mit 15 Milliarden könnte ich leben.

BP may take $11bn hit from oil spill deal

From: The Sunday Times
July 16, 2012 12:00AM

BP is nearing a settlement with US authorities over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill that could leave it taking another $US11 billion ($10.75bn) hit.

The deal would resolve all criminal and civil penalties and draw a line under the most tumultuous period in the company's history.

(...)

Meanwhile, BP is wrestling with its other big unknown: Russia. The company put its 50 per cent stake in TNK-BP, a Russian joint venture with four billionaires, up for sale last month.

It is understood that AAR, the billionaires' holding company, is in talks with banks to raise the estimated $US25bn it would need to buy out BP. The sale would pad BP's balance sheet but deprive the company of a quarter of its production.

At least two arms of the Russian state are also understood to have expressed an interest.

THE SUNDAY TIMES

15 Mrd. USD Settlement zur Abgeltung aller Ansprüche öffentlicher Körperschaften wäre zwar hart, aber noch erträglich. Obamas Forderung nach 25 Mrd. USd sind übelste Polemik.

Aber 25 Mrd. USD für BP's TNK Antiel sind doch viel zu wenig. Hatte AAR nicht damals von BP das Doppelte gefordert?

[Milesstyles]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.388.264 von Wubsoofer am 15.07.12 19:41:51

Mahlzeit!

Das ist ein schöner bericht der sunday Times, ich habs im Gefühl, dass unsere BP mit dem Ausgang im Golf und in Russland, ganz groß zurück kommen wird

trotz allem werd ich eher nicht zukaufen und die nächsten Monate Cash parken...bzw will ich mittelfristig bei RDS einsteigen..

so dann, guten Start in die Woche

[Wubsoofer]

Mit 15 Milliarden könnte ich leben.

BP may take $11bn hit from oil spill deal

From: The Sunday Times
July 16, 2012 12:00AM

BP is nearing a settlement with US authorities over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill that could leave it taking another $US11 billion ($10.75bn) hit.

The deal would resolve all criminal and civil penalties and draw a line under the most tumultuous period in the company's history.

The FTSE 100 group and the US Department of Justice hope to unveil the settlement by September. A resolution would be a coup for chief executive Bob Dudley, who is under pressure from shareholders over his stuttering attempts to revive the oil giant's fortunes.

BP shares closed last week at 438p, down a third from 650p on April 20, 2010, the day the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded, killing 11 workers and unleashing the largest spill in American history.

The spectre of a long legal battle with the government has weighed heavily on the company. A settlement would be welcomed, although it would mean another big dent in BP's balance sheet.

The company has already provided $US37bn to cover the costs of the disaster, including the $US3.5bn it set aside for violations of the Clean Water Act. The rest has gone into a trust fund to pay out claims for compensation ($US20bn) and towards clean-up costs ($US14bn).

Under the worst-case scenario - if BP were to be found grossly negligent - damages under the Clean Water Act could be as high as $US17.5bn. It is thought that BP is hoping for a "grand settlement" - covering Clean Water Act fines, plus potential criminal charges and other damages - of as little as $US15bn. This would result in an additional writedown of about $US11bn.

The Obama administration, keen to use the settlement as a potential vote-winner in the presidential election, is pushing for $US25bn.

The talks were given added urgency this month when the US congress passed a law guaranteeing that 80 per cent of any Clean Water Act fines will go to the governments of the five Gulf of Mexico states affected by the disaster.

Any settlement is likely to allow BP to pay out over several years. Mr Dudley is aiming to sell up to $US14bn in assets by the end of this year to complete an ambitious money-raising program.

Meanwhile, BP is wrestling with its other big unknown: Russia. The company put its 50 per cent stake in TNK-BP, a Russian joint venture with four billionaires, up for sale last month.

It is understood that AAR, the billionaires' holding company, is in talks with banks to raise the estimated $US25bn it would need to buy out BP. The sale would pad BP's balance sheet but deprive the company of a quarter of its production.

At least two arms of the Russian state are also understood to have expressed an interest.

THE SUNDAY TIMES

[DJHLS]

Guter Überblick über die aktuellen Meldungen zu BP:
http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bp?source=search_general&s=bp

Monday 9:49 AM With the U.S. economy weakening, BNY Mellon's Michael Woolfolk says investors in commodities better watch out - not just commodity futures, but also companies tied to raw materials. Investors should steer away from big miners such as BHP, RIO and FCX; oil stocks such as XOM, BP and CVX; and companies that supply these industries, like CAT and SLB.

Monday 7:45 AM Statoil (STO) says it is preparing to shut down production on the Norwegian continental shelf at midnight after strike negotiations broke down Sunday. An anticipated lockout would affect all of the ~50 companies with production in the area, including Total (TOT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and BP. NY crude +0.4% to $84.81; Brent crude +0.5% to $98.65.

Sunday 5:12 AM Norway's oil strike looks no closer to ending, with a government mediator saying workers and employers are still "far apart" in a dispute over pay and pensions. The industry association, which includes Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP), has threatened to halt all output from Tuesday. The tactic is probably designed to force the government to halt the strike, as it has done in the past. Update: Negotiations failed for a third time today.

Sunday 4:05 AM AAR, BP's (BP) partner in BP-TNK, has yet to formally bid for the U.K. company's 50% share in the JV, although Rosneft is reportedly among those to have made an offer. AAR, controlled by four Soviet-born billionaires, has until July 21 to bid for the stake, but any deal is unlikely to be quick. 1 Comment [Energy, M&A]
Friday 6:13 AM Abu Dhabi has reportedly not sent BP (BP) an invitation to apply to develop the city's largest onshore oil fields, although ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT) have been asked to take part in the pre-qualification bidding process.

Norwegen hat übrigens heute die Reißleine gezogen und den Tarifkonflikt in die Zwangsschlichtung gegeben. Damit wird wieder auf allen norwegischen Plattformen weitergearbeitet. Der Ölpreis dürfte entsprechend nachgeben.

[uprock]

Barclays reduziert Gewinnschätzung für Q2:


BP will announce 2Q results on 31 July. Marking to market for the quarter we estimate net income at $4.6bn. This will be 18% lower y/y and 5% lower q/q and is primarily a reflection of a Brent oil price in 2Q 2012 nearly $10/bl lower both y/y and q/q. BP has also undertaken routine maintenance at some of its high margin Gulf of Mexico fields in the US, which will further reduce upstream profitability. The downstream is set to provide some offset to this with windfall earnings given the rapid fall in input pricing but is still not enough to generate positive earnings momentum. BP’s shares have performed broadly in-line with the sector since the start of the year and we continue to see strategic challenges for the group given the continued uncertainties in Russia and the shadow of a potential Macondo trial. We rate the shares 3-Underweight.

Upstream – falling prices and high-margin maintenance: With its 1Q results in May BP indicated that 2Q volumes would be lower and costs higher given normal seasonal turnarounds concentrated on the high-margin production in the Gulf of Mexico. In previous years this seasonal swing has been c155kb/d, and assuming a similar swing this quarter we expect production of 3.28m boe/d for 2Q (5.8kcf=1boe). This is down 3% y/y and 4% q/q. The combination of the weaker Brent and Henry Hub marker prices should have seen a near $950m deterioration in upstream operating profits over the quarter. However, given the high-margin barrels lost through maintenance together with the normal lag in taxation in Russia we expect the overall fall to be greater than indicator pricing would suggest. As a result we are looking for Upstream profits at $6.15bn.

Downstream – a better quarter: According to BP’s website the group’s RMM (refinery marker margin) averaged $15.82/bl in 2Q. This compares to $11.6/bl in 4Q and $13.9/bl in 2Q 2011. Based on the company rules of thumb this would suggest an improvement in profitability of c$700m. Although marketing is likely to have benefited from a parachute effect of the falling oil price, we would expect some of this to be offset by adverse exchange rate moves, maintenance in the US and the continued weak trading conditions in chemicals. We are looking for $1.5 bn of R&M operating profit for 2Q, up 67% on 1Q and 11% on year ago levels.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/04/1071091/