TCM - Der neue Thread nach der Umbenennung - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[doktor291]

Da im alten Thread schin zig Beiträge gepostet wurden, denke ich sollten wir mit der Umbenennung unserer Aktie auch einen neuen Thread anfangen.

[steveq]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.321.390 von doktor291 am 15.05.07 11:09:00

Hallo kannst Du mir mal sagen, wann die Aktie wieder irgendwo gelistet wirde

[boffe]

Valor-Nr.
in Canada lautet:

Thompson Creek (TOR) Price: CAD Chg. (in%): - Volume: -
Shs:Blue Pearl Mining Ltd:
Symbol: TCM Type: Aktie Industry: Diverse Dienstleistungen
Valor: 3107440 Domicile: Kanada Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange Stammdaten
ISIN: CA8847681027
NSIN: CA: 884768102
CH: 3107440

Industry (Telekurs): Diverse Dienstleistungen
CFI-Code: ESXUFR
Nominal: CAD
Outstanding shares: 111'164'658
Callable: Nein



Gruss Boffe

[steveq]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.321.547 von boffe am 15.05.07 11:16:33

Ab wann in Deutschland gelistet ???ß

Danke

[doktor291]

Sie soll wohl wieder am heutigen Nachmittag in D gehandelt werden.

Die Frage ist wie schnell unsere Hausbanken bei der Umstellung sind.

[outofmind]

hat sich WKN, Symbol, ISIN in D'land geändert?

[hanner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.321.961 von outofmind am 15.05.07 11:39:58

A0MR6Q

[schnucksche]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.321.390 von doktor291 am 15.05.07 11:09:00

Gerade weil im "alten" Thread so viele Beiträge gepostet wurden, sollten wir auch dort bleiben

[Windtalkers]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.322.580 von schnucksche am 15.05.07 12:12:41

Ich fahr besser zweigleisig.

[Swissfinancial]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.322.580 von schnucksche am 15.05.07 12:12:41

@schnucksche

Recht hast Du, ich bleib auch im alten Thread. Dort kann man wenigstens viel blättern und Facts, Facts und noch viel mehr Facts nachlesen, wenn man viel Zeit hat...

[kobold78]

Hallo allerseits, ich bin auch seit einiger Zeit bei BPM investiert, wenn nun die Namensänderung kommt und auch die neue Kennung, inwieweit ist euch da was bekannt, das von Wallstreet online die Wachtlists und die Portolios umgestellt werden? Geht das automatisch, oder muss ich da selbst irgendwie aktiv werden?

Gruß Kobold78

[doktor291]

Also meine Bank kennt die neue WKN noch nicht.

[doktor291]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.323.222 von kobold78 am 15.05.07 12:49:26

das ist doch heute und funktioniert alles automatisch, wenn die Technik mitspielt

[blue-storm]

Neuer Name - Neues Symbol - Neuer Thread:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…

Da TCM ein neues Symbol ist und Software, so auch die Forumsoftware, dumm ist und nicht mitdenken kann, ist für diese Software TCM eine neue Aktie.


Ich kenne das aus einem anderem Forum (hat aber nichts mit Aktien zu tun)
Dort sind die Threads aber auch best. Themen und Ordnungsnummern (wie eben hier die Aktie und deren Symbol oder WKN) zusortiert.

Die Ordnungsnummern hatten sich dort geändert. Für die Software des Forums war es wie ein neues Thema. D.h. es musste ein neuer Thread aufgemacht werden, obwohl zum gleichen Thema gehörend.

Evtl. ist es hier ja auch so.
BLE mit seinen Threads wird für die Software eine andere Aktie sein wie TCM.

Thompson Creek ist schon mal drin im WO-System (incl. erstem "Haupt"thread):http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…

[BronteSister]

Wo ist denn der andere (alte) Thread hin???
Kann ihn nirgends mehr finden.

[guru2008]

das frag ich mich auch. schliesslich sind da ja eine menge infos zusammengestellt worden.

[kobold78]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.324.410 von doktor291 am 15.05.07 13:55:42

Vielen Dank für die Info Herr "Doktor". Dann bin ich mal gespannt, ob die technik funktioniert.


Gruß Kobold78

[Wehlofant]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.330.478 von guru2008 am 15.05.07 18:42:17

wurde zu thomson creek mining verschoben

[1erhart]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.330.448 von BronteSister am 15.05.07 18:40:45

Wurde bereits auf das neue Symbol von Thompson Creek Metals abgeändert.

[casaroro]

Hallo,

Habe heute morgen mit der DiBa gesprochen, es wurde mir gesagt
das es bis 2 Wochen dauert bis in Deutschland die Aktien umgewandelt werden.
Danach können sie erst wieder gehandelt werden. Das kann doch nicht sein oder?

Gruß

[taurus11]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.337.597 von casaroro am 16.05.07 09:11:57

bis zu zwei wochen wäre arg lang - aber einige tage kann es schon dauern. habe das theater bereits einige male bei verschiedenen brokern mitmachen müssen.

[Der_Duke]

Bestimmt wurde es schon gepostet, aber ich bin im Urlaub und habe deswegen keine Zeit den ganzen Thread zu durchsuchen. Wuerde mir jemand bitte kurz sagen was mit den SG KOs passiert ist? Finde keinen Kurs mehr und unter dem neuen Namen ist auch noch nix.

Muchas Gracias

[muenster12]

aber geht wieder hoch sehr schön.

schönen Feiertag

[Cuba_Libre]

neuer name, neuer (alter) thread!!!

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…

[Boersenfee666]

Warum existiert den Blue Pearl noch hier im Ticker etc.? Dachte die wären übernommen oder umbenannt worden in Thompson Creek??

[aktientrader1995]

das frage ich mich auch hatte mich leicht verwirrt aber jetzt ist alles klaro

[aktientrader1995]

huhahe wir sind nicht mehr hier sondern woanders

[aktientrader1995]

wo scheint etwas langsam zu sein

[SpringAxl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.345.393 von aktientrader1995 am 16.05.07 16:20:00

hammer,

lese nur in der Stille mit aber hier muss ich mal sagen

hammer

schönen Feiertag

[taurus11]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.347.583 von SpringAxl am 16.05.07 17:59:06

was meinst du denn mit hammer?

[sachse74ch]

weiss jemand wie lang die umstellung in der schweiz dauert? danke

[muenster12]

hoffentlich reagiert der Kurs weiterhin so positiv

[SpringAxl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.398.328 von muenster12 am 21.05.07 06:28:27

nur ein kurzer Moment der Freude

[muenster12]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.400.001 von SpringAxl am 21.05.07 10:14:59

da hattest du vollkommen recht,LEIDER Aber wie so oft bleibt einem nichts anderes übrig als die Situation aussitzen

[SpringAxl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.412.119 von muenster12 am 22.05.07 07:18:35

was ist hier los warum passiert hier nichts?

[Der.Papst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.561.920 von SpringAxl am 31.05.07 19:05:11

nee, die Aktie ist doof.

Wir sind jetzt alle woanders investiert

*Licht ausknips*

[allesaufblau]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.561.948 von Der.Papst am 31.05.07 19:07:03

bist Du gemein - immerhin hat er das Losungswort gesagt...(was ist hier los :eek

[Der.Papst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.565.032 von allesaufblau am 31.05.07 22:15:44

[Videomart]

Molybdän - Der Boom-Rohstoff!? – Teil 2
9. Juni 2007 , Armin Brack in Rohstoffe


Thompson Creek - Die Nummer eins der Branche

Die nordamerikanischen Thompson Creek Metals (ehemals Blue Pearl Minerals) dürfen sich dabei heute bereits als größter reiner börsennotierter Molybdän-Produzent bezeichnen. Insgesamt drei verschiedene Liegenschaften in der kanadischen Provinz British Columbia gehören zum Thompson:

Die wichtigste davon ist die gleichnamige Mine, die bereits 1983 von Standard Oil gebaut worden ist und weltweit die zweitgrößte Molybdän-Mine ist, wo im Tagebau gefördert werden kann. Die derzeit nachgewiesenen Reserven und Ressourcen reichen für einen weiteren Abbau von zehn Jahren. Aktuell gibt es 170 Millionen Pfund wirtschaftlich abbaubare Reserven, 370 Millionen Pfund nachgewiesene Ressourcen und 420 Millionen Pfund vermutete Reserven.

Angesichts des explodierenden Molybdän-Preises und der geologischen Beschaffenheit dürften sich die wirtschaftlich abbaubaren Reserven in den kommenden Jahren sogar noch deutlich erweitern lassen. Aktuell werden bereits 30.000 Tonnen täglich abgebaut, 2008 soll dies auf 50.000 Tonnen gesteigert werden.

Bei der zweiten Tagebaumine, Endako, konnten jüngst dank erfolgreicher Exploration die Reserven massiv nach oben angepasst werden. Nun wird von im Boden befindlichen Vorräten von 282 bis 463 Millionen Pfund Molybdän sowie einer Minenlaufzeit zwischen 21 und 35 Jahren ausgegangen. In diesem Jahr soll mit einer Studie nachgewiesen werden, dass sich diese auch wirtschaftlich abbauen lassen.

Hoffnungsträger der Kanadier ist das Davidson-Projekt, wo die größte Molybdän-Untertage-Mine der Welt aufgebaut werden soll. Die Besonderheit dabei sind die extrem hohen Konzentrationen von 0,36 bis 0,38 Prozent, die weltweit einzigartig sind. Die Kosten für den Minenbau sehen die Analysten von GMP Securities bei 55 Millionen US-Dollar. Weil Thompson derzeit täglich (!) rund 1,2 Millionen US-Dollar verdient können die Kosten aus dem laufenden Cash-Flow finanziert werden.

Ein weiterer wichtiger Vorteil: Das Erz kann direkt nach der Förderung zur weiteren Verarbeitung per LKW zur Endako-Liegenschaft befördert werden. Die Gesamtkosten können dadurch sehr niedrig gehalten werden. Zum Vergleich: Die Errichtung einer ganz neuen Mine kostet durchschnittlich circa 500 Millionen US-Dollar. Die Konkurrenz muss diesen Betrag zunächst einmal finanzieren und kann dann erst zum Produzenten werden.

Quartalszahlen übertreffen die Erwartungen

Zuletzt lief es bei dem Senkrechtstarter sogar noch besser als erwartet. Der Umsatz legte von 151 Millionen auf 275 Millionen US-Dollar zu, dabei wurde ein Cash-Flow von 105 Mio. US-Dollar erwirtschaftet. Der Gewinn je Aktie schnellte auf 0,46 US-Dollar. Analysten waren zuvor im Schnitt nur von 0,31 US-Dollar ausgegangen. Die Schulden wurden planmäßig von 320 Millionen auf 302 Millionen US-Dollar reduziert.
Kein Wunder, dass die Analysten im Anschluss ihre Schätzungen reihenweise anhoben. Sprott Securities setzt das Kursziel beispielsweise auf 28 kanadische Dollar, sofern sich der Molybdän-Preis über 20 US-Dollar halten sollte. Aktuell notiert die Aktie bei 18,37 US-Dollar und peilt damit nach einer Konsolidierung die alten Höchststände von 19,09 US-Dollar von Ende April an.

Thompson Creek ist damit ganz klar die Nummer eins unter den Molybdän-Aktien - und der einzige Produzent!

Moly Mines - Die spekulative Alternative

Wer nach einem Unternehmen in einem früheren Entwicklungsstadium sucht, für den könnte der australische Molybdän-Explorer Moly Mines (WKN: A0EAPA; ISIN: AU000000MOL6) eine interessante Alternative sein.

Mit CEO Derek Fisher hat man einen in der Branche hoch angesehenen Unternehmenslenker, der Großes vorhat. Man verfügt über stattliche Ressourcen von 600 Millionen Pfund, was einem Minenleben von 20 Jahren entspricht. Jetzt geht es darum, die Mine produktionsfähig zu machen. Ende 2008 bzw. Anfang 2009 soll es soweit sein.

Die Marktkapitalisierung von aktuell 164 Millionen Euro erscheint angesichts der hohen Ressourcen im Vergleich zu der von Thompson Creek extrem niedrig. Berücksichtigt werden muss dabei jedoch, dass bei Moly eben jene angesprochenen 500 Millionen US-Dollar an Kosten für den Bau der Mine anfallen werden. Diese können nicht ohne weitere verwässernde Kapitalerhöhungen gestemmt werden.

Die Aktie ist somit um einiges riskanter als der Marktführer, verfügt aber auch über ein enormes Potenzial, wenn der Bau der Mine nach Plan läuft. Sollte sich der Molybdän-Preis auch in den kommenden Jahren zumindest über 20 US-Dollar halten, hat das Papier Vervielfachungspotenzial.

MEIN FAZIT:

- Es ist momentan kein Ende des Molybdän-Booms in Sicht
- Molybdän-Anleger sollten aber genau die Stahlkonjunktur beobachten. Ein Einbruch dort dürfte auch zu kräftigen Einbrüchen beim Molybdän-Preis führen.
- Alle drei Hauptnachfrager befinden sich momentan in einer Boomphase: Stahl, Flugzeugbau und Ölindustrie. Gleichzeitig kann die Produktion nicht ausreichend stark gesteigert werden. Es besteht ein Angebotsdefizit.
- Anleger sollten auf Marktführer Thompson Creek setzen. Nur sehr risikobewusste Spekulanten können sich auch eine Moly Mines ins Depot legen.


Quelle www.dailyresearch.de

[sliceanddice]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.832.748 von Videomart am 11.06.07 23:10:36

... ist und weltweit die zweitgrößte Molybdän-Mine ist, wo im Tagebau gefördert werden kann...

Welche ist denn die größte und wem gehört die??

Gruß S&D

[muenster12]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.832.748 von Videomart am 11.06.07 23:10:36

ich verstehe nicht den hype, im außerbörslichen Leben habe ich von dem Zeug noch nie gehört , hier alle paar threads. Was kann man damit machen?

[Der.Papst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.898.740 von muenster12 am 14.06.07 19:46:29

jetzt aber in den Bewertungsthread, marsch, marsch

[SpringAxl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.832.748 von Videomart am 11.06.07 23:10:36

EIN FAZIT:

- Es ist momentan kein Ende des Molybdän-Booms in Sicht
- Molybdän-Anleger sollten aber genau die Stahlkonjunktur beobachten. Ein Einbruch dort dürfte auch zu kräftigen Einbrüchen beim Molybdän-Preis führen.
- Alle drei Hauptnachfrager befinden sich momentan in einer Boomphase: Stahl, Flugzeugbau und Ölindustrie. Gleichzeitig kann die Produktion nicht ausreichend stark gesteigert werden. Es besteht ein Angebotsdefizit.
- Anleger sollten auf Marktführer Thompson Creek setzen. Nur sehr risikobewusste Spekulanten können sich auch eine Moly Mines ins Depot legen.



ich hoffe das deine Aussagen auch zutreffen, finde der Wert ist immer noch ziemlich verlockend

[Gio1986]

Hi zusammen,
ich habe mal ne Frage. ich bin absolut neu auf dem Gebiet was Aktien angeht. Drauf gekommen bin ich eigentlich durch meinen Schwiegervater in Spee, der ebenfalls hier im Forum angemeldet ist.......

Was mich interessieren würde: rentiert es sich diese Aktie bei den aktuellen Kursen zu kaufen oder ist es erwägenswert zu warten ob sie n bissl fällt, weil nach aussage meines "Schwiegervaters" (nachfolgend SV) hatte er die Aktie mal bei 4 € gekauft und bei 8 wieder verkauft und ärgert sich logischerweise) jetzt drüber hat aber auch wieder n paar von denen hier ....

Also falls das von nöten ist:
meien Ziele sind:

-- vorerst mit ca 250 € so viel wie möglich zu erwirtschaften....
-- möglichst auf sichere Karten setzen

Vielen DAnk für eure Hilfe im Voraus

euer


Gio1986

[Hercu]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.600.174 von Gio1986 am 09.07.07 21:51:11

250euro????

Hast Du paar Nullen vergessen-oder meinst Du das ernst?

[Gio1986]

eigentlich miente ich das ernst weil ich ABSOLUTER neuling bin.......

da will ich nicht gleich meine hart gesparten 1500 € verkloppen.... bin ja erst 21 ^^

[Hercu]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.600.330 von Gio1986 am 09.07.07 21:58:05

Das lohnt doch nicht!
Du zahlst ja sicher auch Gebühren bei Deiner Bank!

Für 250 euro bekommst nicht mal 20Stück!

Ende des Jahres stehen wir aber trotz allem sicherlich höher als 13euro....

Grüßle

[Gio1986]

welche aktie wäre dann zu empfehlen wenn man erst mal klein anfangen will? weil ich hab keine Ahnung von der ganzen SAchee (also nur so n bissl Schul - Rechnungswesen Know How....)

[0815Trader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.600.508 von Gio1986 am 09.07.07 22:05:14

Bei 250€ würde ich nicht in Aktien investieren.

Selbst bei einem günstigen Anbieter zahlst Du pro Transaktion etwa 10€. Kauf und Verkauf machen zusammen also etwa 20€. Dü müsstest also schon 8% plus machen, nur um die Gebühren zu finanzieren.

[Videomart]

Veröffentlicht von Prof. Dr. Hans J. Bocker am 19.07.2007 um 10:28 Uhr

Molybdän- Ein neuer Stern am Rohstoffhimmel

Unbekannt und ungenannt - nicht mehr lange Noch bis vor kurzer Zeit weckte der Mehrzahl der Leser der Tagespresse die Nennung des Fremdbegriffes "Molybdän" (in der Umgangssprache kurz "Moly") bestenfalls Assoziationen an einer molligen Dänin oder deren Hund, dem Grossen Dänen. Ansonsten folgte ein mattes Gähnen. Doch gähnen mittlerweile immer weniger, denn nach Preissteigerungen von 3 auf über 40 $ pro Pfund in wenigen Jahren - genauer, seit 2001 - (derzeit im Bereich von 32 $ im Angebot) wurden sogar verwöhnte Investoren argwöhnisch. Es musste ja auffallen, dass derlei Preisanstiege diejenigen von Gold und Silber im gleichen Zeitraum um ein Mehrfaches übertrafen: Grob gesprochen: Eine Verzehnfachung gegenüber einer Verdreifachung. Damit aber kam die an den Börsen so typische Gier - Verzeihung - lebhaftes Interesse - auf. Steile Preissanstiege oder markante Kursgewinne irgendeiner Aktie, Währung, eines Rohstoffes oder Metalles senden nun einmal Adrenalinstösse in die Blutkreisläufe der Investorengemeinschaft, wenngleich manchmal mit Verspätung. Die kanadische Finanzfirma Sprott Securities, die sich auf Metalle, und insbesondere Molybdän spezialisiert hat, geht sogar davon aus, dass das alte Preis-Hoch von über 40 $ pro Pfund bis Jahresende nominal wieder erreicht wird: Eine gute Nachricht für Anleger, die sich hier bereits engagiert haben. Bezeichnenderweise hat dieses kanadische Wertpapierhaus auch gleich noch einen Exchange Traded Fund, also einen börsengehandelten Fond, kurz ETF, aufgelegt. Ganz ähnlich wie bei den entsprechenden ETF - Schwester-Institutionen für Gold und Silber werden diese Titel sowohl mit Aktien (mit Molybdän-Bezug) wie auch mit physischem Metall - hinterlegt. In einem allerersten Schritt hat man für diesen Fond mit dem appetitlichen Namen "Sprott Moly" (nicht zu verwechseln mit Massenschwärmen kleiner Fische und ausführlich: Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp.) 150 Millionen kan. $ eingesammelt. Diese Aktion hatte eine Art Schlaglicht-Wirkung in dessen Scheinwerferstrahlen das bisher unbekannte Moly steht. Endlich spricht jemand aus der Familie die Wertpapierhäuser diesem unbekannten Metall eine erste Anerkennung aus. Hinzu kommt, dass der globale Verbrauch von Molybdän seit Ende der 60-er Jahre um über 400% zugenommen hat. Solange China, Indien und Rest-Asien ihre Volkswirtschaften, insbesondere deren Metall-, Öl- und Kunststoffindustrien, im Schnellgang am Laufen halten - wobei insbesondere der Stahlindustrie (Südkorea führt) eine führende Rolle zukommt - sind weitere Steigerungen der Nachfrage klar vorprogrammiert. Die Preise für das Metall kletterten in den 70-er Jahren auf 50 $ pro Pfund (inflationsbereinigt heute etwa 148 $), fielen in den 80-er Jahren, dem Downswing des Rohstoffzyklus’ folgend, auf etwa 8-10 $ und in den 90-ern sogar auf etwa 3 $. Sie liegen derzeit etwas über 30 $ je Pfund. Kürzlich wurden in China sogar 36 $ am Spotmarkt gefordert. Um das alte Hoch der 70-er Jahre nach Kaufkraft zu erreichen, müsste der Preis also auf etwa 148 $ pro Pfund steigen, was in etwa einer Verfünffachung des heutigen Niveaus entspräche. Längerfristig wurden im Verlauf der Rohstoffzyklen die alten Höchststände nicht nur wieder erreicht, sondern auch deutlich überschritten. Man wird abwarten müssen, ob die Gesetze der Zyklen auch in künftigen Zeiten noch ihre Gültigkeit behalten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit hierfür ist sehr hoch. Auch an den Terminmärkten ist das Metall noch weitgehend unbekannt und unentwickelt. Man kann auf fast alle Metalle Options- und Futureskontrakte eingehen bzw. abschliessen, jedoch nicht für Molybdän! Das dürfte sich bald ändern. Eine gewisse Anerkennung in diesem Bereich ist hier überfällig. Der über 15 Jahre anhaltende Bullenmarkt für Rohstoffe in den 60-er und 70-er Jahren wurde vom Aufstieg Japans (120 Millionen Einwohner) zur industriellen Grossmacht getragen. Die Situation im heutigen Bullenmarkt ist ähnlich - mit einem wichtigen Unterschied: Diesmal sind mehr als 20 Mal so viele Menschen in Asien involviert, was auf ein langes Leben des Rohstoffbooms hoffen lässt. Die verbrauchten Mengen sind enorm.

Beispiel Kupfer: Der tägliche Verbrauch der Welt passt in vier (4) Güterzüge mit je 100 Waggons und einer Länge von jeweils 1,6 Kilometer Länge. Die derzeit weltweit gehaltenen Kupfer-Vorräte reichen gerade für 4½ Tage des globalen Verbrauches. Die Neuentwicklungen so gut wie aller Metallminen reichen nicht aus, die Abbauraten der alten noch laufenden Minen zu ersetzen. Es gibt keinen zweiten chilenischen Kupfergürtel oder keine weiteren hochhaltigen Molybdänminen im Megaformat. Immer wildere grüne Vorschriften, lokale Proteste, immer grössere Hürden bei der Ausreichung von Bergbau-Permits, Enteignungen durch "volksnahe" Regierungen und immer längere Entwicklungszeiten für oft zweitklassige Vorkommen (erstklassige sind im Aussterben begriffen) sowie rasant steigende Kosten schaffen Preisauftriebe. Alles spricht für lukrative Rohstoff- und Metallinvestitionen in der richtigen Gegend und der richtigen Gesellschaft. Natürlich wird der Zyklus enden, doch dürften darüber noch viele Tonnen schwach konzentrierter Moly-Erze jahrelang unter den Brücken der Röstanlagen hinunter fliessen.

Das Metall und seine Bedeutung

Das chemische Element mit der zinnweiss-silbrigen Farbe findet sich unter "Mo" in der Gruppe 6 des Periodensystems der Elemente. Schon die alten Griechen kannten das mit vielen anderen Metallen legierbare, feste Schwermetall. Sie nannten es "molybdaina", was soviel wie Bleimasse oder Bleikugel bedeutet und sich von molybdos = Blei ableitet. Im Mittelalter wurde es häufig mit Bleiglanz verwechselt und auch "Wasserblei" oder "Reissblei" (wegen einer gewissen Sprödigkeit beim Verarbeiten) genannt. In der moderneren Welt entdeckte es Carl Wilhelm Scheele 1778 (Mozart war 22 Jahre alt) "offiziell": Damit war seine amtliche Einreihung ins Periodensystem gesichert. Mit einer Protonenzahl von 42, einem kubisch-raumzentrierten Schichtgitter (daher die ausgezeichneten Schmierwirkungen), einer Dichte von 10,22 g/ml (also 10 Mal so schwer wie Wasser und halb so schwer wie Gold) und einer relativen Atommasse von 95,94 stellt sich der Schmelzpunkt auf 2.617°C (fast doppelt so hoch wie Kohlenstoffstahl) und der Siedepunkt auf 5.560°C (einer der höchsten aller Stoffe überhaupt). Für pflanzliche, tierische und menschliche Organismen ist das Metall ein essentielles und absolut unentbehrliches Spurenelement. Moly-Kunstdünger - Gaben verhindern das Gilben der Blätter und kräftigen den Pflanzenwuchs. Wegen des hohen Schmelz- und des extrem hohen Siedepunktes verleiht es Kunststoffen und Plastik Feuerfestigkeit und dämpft auch die Rauchentwicklung sehr stark, beides Eigenschaften, die in einer Welt immer strengerer "grünen" Sicherheitsvorschriften und im Umweltschutz gesucht sind. Wenn Autos, die enorme Mengen Kunststoff (250 kg und mehr sind keine Seltenheit) enthalten, Küchen, Häuser oder technische Anlagen brennen oder schmoren, reduzieren schon kleine Moly-Beigaben Erstickungsgefahr und (Sicht- ) Vernebelungseffekte. Im Brandfalle bleibt dem Betroffenen wenigstens die Freude rauchfreier Entwicklung und der guten Übersicht über den fortschreitenden Raub der Flammen. Molybdän ist ein duktiles, nicht ganz leicht formbares Schwermetall. Eine dünne Oxydschicht gewährt Luftbeständigkeit. Von Wasser sowie der Mehrzahl der Säuren und Laugen wird es nicht angegriffen. Deshalb wird es in großen Quantitäten zur Herstellung von säure- und laugebeständigen Edelstählen und Nickelwerkstoffen eingesetzt. In seinen chemischen (kaum aber seinen physikalischen) Eigenschaften steht es Wolfram recht nahe. Molybdän wurde früher oft mit Bleiglanz oder Graphit verwechselt. Wegen seiner schwierigen Bearbeitbarkeit (es reisst leicht) fand Molybdän jahrhunderte hindurch kaum Beachtung. Erst gegen 1890 herum fanden die Ingenieure des französischen Rüstungsunternehmens deutschen Ursprungs Schneider & Co. ein kleines Geheimnis heraus. Wie so oft ist der Krieg der Vater aller Dinge: Bei der Herstellung von Panzerplatten verbesserten schon geringe Mo-Beimischungen deren Eigenschaften, wie Zähigkeit, Durchschlagswiderstand und Verbeulungseffekte in erstaunlicher Weise. Dieses Geheimnis blieb nicht lange in den französischen Rüstungsfabriken verborgen. Die Deutschen und später auch Engländer und Amerikaner begannen ihre Stähle ebenfalls mit Molybdän zu legieren und somit war ein erster grosser Nachfrageschub geboren. Die beiden Weltkriege trieben diese Nachfrage auf immer neue Höhen. Doch nach WK II stürzten die Preise ab. Im Zivilbereich blieb die Nachfrage gedämpft und Europa blieb abhängig vom Fremdbezug. Die einzige westeuropäische Mine wurde bis zum Jahre 1973 im norwegischen Knaben betrieben.

Wachsende Nachfrage

Wie schon erwähnt, war Molybdän der Öffentlichkeit und der weltweiten Investorengemeinschaft so gut wie unbekannt. Das Metall ist keineswegs so sexy wie Gold, Silber, Diamanten oder Platin und Palladium. 2006 stieg der Molybdänverbrauch weltweit um etwa 6%, und der chinesische Verbrauch um 20%. China, einst für fast 80% der weltweiten Mo-Lieferungen verantwortlich, stoppte im letzten Jahr die Ausfuhren und belegte die Exporte sogar mit Strafzöllen. Rasant steigender Eigenbedarf wie auch strategische Überlegungen spielten bei den entsprechenden Entscheidungen Pekings die Hauptrolle. Der globale Verbrauch wird Schätzungen zufolge bis 2018 von derzeit 400 Millionen Pfund auf 800 oder sogar 900 Millionen Pfund steigen. Woher diese Mengen kommen sollen, bleibt vorerst absolut rätselhaft. Neue Minen sind Seltenheiten, brauchen 5-10 Jahre bis zur Produktionsreife und Neufunde wiesen und weisen immer schwächere Konzentrationen auf. Auf jeden Fall sieht es gar nicht danach aus, als ob dramatische Preiseinbrüche zu erwarten wären. Die Welt-Stahlproduktion wächst um 10-11% pro Jahr. Die hierfür benötigten Moly-Mengen wachsen im Bedarf parallel mit. Ausserdem: Die grössten Mengen stammen als anfallendes Nebenprodukt aus der Kupfergewinnung. Doch hier vollzieht sich ein für die Moly-Preise günstiger Wandel: Weltweit erschöpfen sich die Minen mit Kupfer-Molybdän-Porphyr - Erzen rasch. Es wird zunehmend und notgedrungen auf Minen eines anderen Typus (insbesondere in Afrika) ausgewichen. Deren Gruben und Schächte jedoch enthalten vorwiegend Kupfer-Kobalt-Erze und kein oder nur sehr wenig Molybdän. "The trend is your friend": Dies trifft hier für die Moly-Preise und die Investoren der Branche eindeutig zu. Es gilt somit festzuhalten: "Reine" Molybdänvorkommen (also ohne physikalische Beimischung anderer Metalle, jedoch nicht in metallischer Form) sind also relativ selten (zu beachten: "reines" metallisches Moly tritt überhaupt nirgendwo auf, nur in chemischen Verbindungen, meist als Molybdänglanz). Ganz ähnlich wie Silber fällt es als Nebenprodukt, sozusagen zwangsweise, im Rahmen des Gewinnungsprozesses an (wer Rinder verarbeitet erhält ausser den begehrten Steaks auch Horn- und Knochenmehl, Häute und Eingeweide, erwünscht oder nicht). Nur jede fünfte aller "Moly"-Minen gehören zu diesem "reinen" Typ (wie beispielsweise New Cantech oder Blue Pearl), was dort die anderenfalls erzwungenen aufwendigen teueren Trenn- und Reinigungsverfahren erspart. Im Gegensatz hierzu fallen rund vier Fünftel des weltweit gewonnenen Schwermetalls (genau wie im Falle von Silber) als Nebenprodukt beim Abbau anderer Industriemetalle (meist mit Kupfer -physisch, nicht chemisch - verunreinigt) mit an. Weiterhin: Nickel ist derzeit wirkungs- und effekt-bezogen rund 5 Mal so teuer wie Moly (150 $ gegenüber 30 $ für gleiche Wirkung). In vielen Anwendungen in der Stahlindustrie bewirkt ein Pfund Molybdän das gleiche wie 5-7 Pfund Nickel. Daher wird Nickel zunehmend durch Moly ersetzt wobei die Stahlindustrie in diesem Verdrängungsprozess führt. Dieser Substitutionseffekt tritt vor allem in Bereich der Edelstahlproduktion auf, wo Rostfreiheit, Zähigkeit, Korrosionswiderstand, Druckfestigkeit, Säure- und Basenresistenz, Alterungsbeständigkeit (keine gefährlichen Alters-Mikrorisse bei Turbinenschaufeln und Rotoren) sowie Hoch- und Tieftemperaturverträglichkeit gefragt sind. Selbst wenn der Moly-Preis von derzeit etwa 30 auf demnächst 50 $ pro Pfund stiege, betrüge diese Preis-Nutzen-Differenz immer noch das Dreifache. Solange die Nickelpreise nicht in dramatischer Weise fallen, sind hier also Preisuntergrenzen für Moly eingebaut. Zumindest bis zu einem potentiellen Preissturz für Nickel wird die Stahlbranche diese Sparpotentiale keinesfalls übersehen. Über die Bedeutung des unbekannten Metalls geben auch die Verbrauchszahlen Auskunft: Im Jahre 2006 beispielsweise, wurden weltweit für Kupfer, Uran und Silber jeweils rund 8,6 Milliarden $ ausgegeben. Für Molybdän jedoch mussten kumulativ fast 11 Milliarden $ bezahlt werden. Der Markt ist also grösser als derjenige dieser drei individuell genannten und sehr bekannten Rohstoffe bzw. Metalle. Auch diese Tatsache ist weitgehend unbekannt. Der Markt hat gesprochen, sein Urteil war eindeutig, doch kaum jemand nahm diesen Urteilsspruch zur Kenntnis.

Vorkommen

Der Anteil von Molybdän in der Erdkruste beläuft sich auf ca. 0,00015 Gewichtsprozent. Es ist also relativ selten und die Konzentrationen bleiben sehr gering. Dies erschwert und verteuert einen wirtschaftlichen Abbau grundsätzlich. Die Vorkommen als solche sind weit verbreitet aber die Konzentrationen extrem niedrig. (Ludwig Thoma hat diese typische Grundsituation in "Josef Filsers gesammelten Briefwechsel" wie folgt ausgedrückt: er bäuerliche Landtagsabgeordnete Filser (für die führende Mehrheits-Partei der katholisch-königlich-Konservativen) wird gefragt, wie denn der Zahlenproporz im bayerischen Landtag wäre und die es um die Dominanz redegewandter Hochintellektueller der viel kleineren Gegenpartei bestellt sei. Darauf Filser: "Die Dimmeren sei mer schoh, aber die Mehreren sei mer ah." Die weltweit gestreuten Molybdän-Vorkommen reflektieren genau diesen Sachverhalt. Viel, aber "sehr dünn". Typische Prozentzahlen der Gehalte, wie sie die Minen veröffentlichen, beginnen daher mit 0,1...%. Das Metall tritt in freier Natur stets gebunden auf. Metallisch reine Vorkommen wurden bisher nicht bekannt. Als wichtigste dieser Bindungen bzw. der Molybdän-Mineralien gelten Molybdänit oder Molybdänglanz (MoS2, ein bleigrau bis blau-metallisch glänzendes Mineral), Powellit (Ca, Mo, WO4) und auch Wulfenit (Gelbbleierz, PbMoO4). Gelegentlich findet sich auch Molybdän(VI)-oxid und Molybdän(IV)-sulfid in den üblichen, sehr schwachen Konzentrationen. Ein erheblicher Teil der der Fachwelt bekannten Molybdän-Vorkommen der Erde finden sich in schwer zugänglichen Gebieten mit denkbar schwacher Infrastruktur oder auch in politisch instabilen Ländern bzw. in diktatorisch geführten Nationen wie China. Experten und deren Schätzungen zufolge sind die weltweit bekannten und vermuteten Moly-Reserven bis zum Jahre 2040 oder 2045 vollständig verbraucht. Neue Vorkommen werden im Prinzip quantitativ immer kleiner, weisen qualitativ immer schwächere Konzentrationen auf, sind regional immer schwerer zugänglich und liegen in grösseren Tiefen. Ergebnis: Höhere Kosten und damit steigende Preise! Ein bedenklicher Trend: Im Falle von Gold, Silber, Platin oder den meisten der übrigen Schlüsselrohstoffe wie Kupfer und Zink sind die billigen, "leichten", und großen Lager längst gefunden und weitgehend ausgebeutet worden (wie auch bei Öl). Dieser weltweit wirksame Trend mit dem die Volkswirtschaften künftig noch voll konfrontiert werden, schliesst Molybdän natürlich nicht aus. Die langfristig angelegten Sicherungsstrategien der vorausschauenden Asiaten, insbesondere Chinas und Südkoreas in Afrika, Südamerika und in anderen Ländern, wie Kanada, tragen dieser Tatsache voll Rechnung. Hilfreich für die künftige Preisentwicklung ist schliesslich auch die abzusehende Schliessung der grössten Moly-Mine der Welt: Henderson in Colorado wird in etwa fünf Jahren wegen Erschöpfung der Lagerstätten ausfallen. Die Vorräte sind am Ende und dürften ein Loch von ungefähr 17% in den weltweiten Angebotsstrom reissen. Mithin sind Verknappungen und somit wiederum Preissteigerungen vorprogrammiert. Der Kampf um die letzten Vorräte dürfte - ganz ähnlich wie bei Rohöl (und danach Wasser) - schon in wenigen Jahren einsetzen.

Bedarf

Der weltweite Bedarf für Molybdän steigt, wie schon erwähnt, jährlich mit einer Rate um 6%, während auf der Gegenseite die Produktionsmengen um wenigstens 1-2% pro Jahr zurückgehen, und dies ungeachtet der Tatsache, dass Chile als wichtigster Kupferproduzent seinen Ausstoss für 2008 und 2009 steigern will, was ein etwas höheres Moly-Angebot (Nebenprodukt) aus dieser Region zur Folge hätte. China verbraucht zurzeit ungefähr 14% der Weltproduktion mit Steigerungsraten um 20%. Das Land dürfte in wenigen Jahren mindestens 20 % absorbieren, falls seine Volkswirtschaft nicht in eine schwere Rezession verfällt. Geschähe dies und würde dieses möglicherweise noch mit einer massiven Rezession der USA Hand in Hand gehen, dann allerdings könnten die Molybdänpreise unter Druck geraten. Den gleichen Effekt könnte ein gigantischer Molybdänfund irgendwo auf der Welt auslösen. Geologen halten ein solches Ereignis jedoch für höchst unwahrscheinlich. Solange die Ölpreise hoch bleiben und tendenziell weiter steigen, wird auch Moly hoch bepreist, da die Ölindustrie mit Moly eng liiert, ja fast verheiratet ist: Stähle aller Art, Bohrgeräte, Gestänge, Bohrköpfe, Röhren, Behälter, Tanks, Pumpen, Ventile, Flansche, Hochdruckeinrichtungen, Tanker, Hafenanlagen, Raffinerien mit einer Vielfalt technischer Anwendungen, Grosstanklager, Tankwagen, Kanister, Motoren, Ölzusätze, Schmiermittel, feuerfeste Werkstoffe aller Art, Auspuffanlagen, Katalysatoren, Werkzeuge, Werkstätten, Reparaturanlagen, Werften, Kräne, Sonderfahrzeuge usw. - nichts läuft ohne Molybdän. Und die hier absorbierten Mengen sind hoch - bei steigender Tendenz. In der Vergangenheit liefen die Preisentwicklungen von Rohöl und Moly nahezu parallel. Höhere Ölpreise würden also nahezu automatisch preistreibend für Molybdän wirken. Ohne dieses strategische Metall kann "Big Oil" schlicht nicht existieren. Den gleichen Zwängen unterliegt sinngemäss auch die Schwesterbranche: Erdgas. Das Scheichtum Dubai plant den Bau einer Seewasser-Entsalzungsanlage von gewaltigen Ausmassen. Diese soll weit über 100 Jahre halten. Man denkt hierbei an die Nach-Öl-Zeit mit ihren fallenden Einnahmen, die bereits langsam aber sicher heraufzieht. Dauerhafte Grossprojekte sollen diesen Effekt der heraufziehenden Verarmung mildern. Diese Anlage soll voll mit Molybdän ausgekleidet werden (um die Lebensdauer auf Generationen hinaus zu verlängern), was mit den zu erneuernden Pipelines im Lande und in den Nachbarstaaten, eine gesamte Welt-Jahresproduktion absorbieren könnte. Die finanziellen Mittel, die notwendig wären, ein derartiges Megaprojekt durchzuziehen, könnte der Ölstaat im Prinzip aufbringen.

Im Einsatz unentbehrlich

Wolframverknappungen, wie sie in den Weltkriegen auftraten, führt stets zu vermehrtem Einsatz von Molybdän in der Produktion hochfester Werkstoffe. Als Legierungselement zur Steigerung von Festigkeit, Korrosions-, Alterungs-, Hitze- und Kältebeständigkeit trat es im Laufe der Jahrzehnte seinen metallurgischen Siegeszug an und wurde immer unentbehrlicher. Molybdänhaltige Hochleistungswerkstoffe wie beispielsweise Nicrofer, Hastelloy X, Inconel 718, Waspalloy, Haynes 282, Udimet 720, Rene 41, M963 oder Incoloy ermöglichen überhaupt erst eine Vielzahl technischer Verfahren und Prozesse und machen diese wirtschaftlich. Als ideales Schmiermittel kommt Molybdändisulfid auch bei erhöhten Temperaturen zum Einsatz. Es schmiert sowohl als Feststoff (besser noch als Graphit) als auch in Lösungen suspendiert (Motoren- und andere Öle). Die Schmierstoff und Ölbranche kann ohne Moly nicht mehr auskommen. Auch in elektronischen Bauteilen ist Molybdän zu finden. Hier dient das Metall den TFTs (Dünnschichttransistoren) als die leitende Metallschicht. Um Gasdichte für Stromdurchführungen zu erzielen, werden Molybdänfolien in der Quarzglasproduktion, für Halogenglühlampen und für Hochdruck-Gasentladungslampen benötigt. Molybdate werden zur Imprägnierung von Stoffen gebraucht, um Entflammbarkeit und Rauchentwicklungen (siehe oben) im Brandfalle drastisch zu senken. In der Röntgendiagnostik findet Moly als Targetmaterial in der Anode Verwendung (Röntgenröhren mit Molybdänanoden). Dies senkt die Energie der Strahlung und damit die Gefahr von Verbrennungen oder Bestrahlungsschäden sowohl für Patienten als auch für das die Apparate bedienende Personal in markanter Weise. Die Nuklearmediziner setzen Spalt-Molybdän in Radionuklidgeneratoren (RNG) ein. Wegen der günstigen Zerfallzeiten können wichtige Technetium-Isotope direkt vor Ort für Untersuchungszwecke gewonnen werden. Eine weitere erfreuliche Eigenschaft: Von allen Schwermetallen wirkt es offenbar am wenigsten toxisch auf menschliche Organismen. Wie schon angedeutet ist Molybdän für pflanzliches Leben absolut essentiell und stellt einen unentbehrlichen Mikronährstoff dar, der entscheidenden Einfluss auf die Assimilationsfähigkeit hat. Beispielsweise würden die in der Landwirtschaft so wichtigen Legumen aller Art - ohne das Spurenelement - für die menschliche Ernährung sowie als Tierfutter ausfallen. Die Bildung von Stickstoffsammlern wäre unmöglich. Molybdänmangel macht Böden unfruchtbar. Knöllchenbakterien beispielsweise und andere Pflanzensymbionten sterben ab. Sie können keinen Luftstickstoff mehr binden, keine Enzyme produzieren und keine schädlichen Nitrate mehr reduzieren oder neutralisieren. Dadurch fällt die natürliche Entgiftung der Böden weg. Das Gleiche gilt für Tiere und Menschen, die auf Harnsäurebildung und nachfolgender Entgiftung über die Nieren angewiesen sind. Ohne Moly geraten alle diese lebensnotwendigen De-Toxifizierungs-Prozesse ins Stocken. Menschliche Ernährung ohne Molybdän führt folglich zu schweren Störungen. 50-100 µg Molybdän pro Tag werden unbedingt benötigt. Manche Tierarten wachsen dank Molybdängaben im Futter sogar schneller. Moly-Dünger (siehe Tabelle) wird eingesetzt, wenn gilbende Blätter und andere Störungen im Pflanzenwuchs auf akuten Molybdänmangel hinweisen. Die sektoralen Verbräuche von Molybdän (sie sind alle "kritisch" für Wirtschaft) teilen sich grob gesprochen auf wie folgt: Edelstähle (rostfrei): 27 % Voll legierte Stähle: 13 % Werkzeug- und Hochgeschwindigkeits-Stähle: 10 % HSLA Stähle: 9 % Kohlenstoff Stähle: 9 % Katalysatoren: 8 % Molybdän Legierungen: 7 % Hochleistungs-Legierungen: 6 % Gusseisen: 3 % Schmierstoffe und Pigmente: 5 % Andere Anwendungen: 3 % Pipelines wurden nicht als Extra-Kategorie aufgeführt. Der entsprechende Bedarf steckt in den Zahlen für die Stähle. Wäre eine Wirtschaft ohne Molybdän denkbar? Ja, im Sinne der mittelalterlichen Agrarwirtschaft. Die Schaufeln und Hacken der Pächter und Halbsklaven-Heere (auf deren Niveau dann 95% der Bevölkerung absinken müsste), würden sich allerdings rasch abnutzen. Wäre der Wohlfahrtsstaat, ja wären Kriege ohne das Metall denkbar? Nein, unmöglich. Selbst die Gelddruckmaschinen benötigen Moly.

Breitgefächerte Anwendungspalette

Die Anwendungsbereiche für Molybdän sind also offenbar sehr vielfältig und Ersatz- bzw. Substitutionsstoffe sind nur in seltensten Fällen überhaupt zu finden, oder wenn, dann wären sie in der Anwendung einfach zu teuer. Gold und Silber könnten als Legierungsmetalle mit technisch erstaunlichen Wirkungen durchaus zum Einsatz kommen, doch verbieten die entsprechenden Preisstrukturen derartigen technologischen Einsatz. Was einem Ersatzstoff (mit weniger günstigen Eigenschaften) eventuelle noch am nächsten käme, ist teures und knappes Wolfram. Wie man es auch drehen und wenden mag, die moderne Wirtschaft ist in jedem Fall dringend auf Molybdän und seine regelmässigen Lieferungen angewiesen. Einige Anwendungsbereiche wurden bereits erwähnt. Doch ist die Anwendungspalette sehr viel weiter gespannt bzw. gefächert. Sie erstreckt sich u.a. über die Bereiche/Gebiete/Branchen:

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/artikel.php?storyi…

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THOMPSON CREEK METALS vor gewaltiger Rallye

Datum 05.10.2007 - Uhrzeit 21:55 (© BörseGo AG 2007, Autor: Weygand Harald, Vorstand BörseGo AG, © GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)
WKN: A0MR6Q | ISIN: CA8847681027 | Intradaykurs:

THOMPSON CREEK METALS - Kürzel: TCM - ISIN: CA8847681027

(Ehemals Blue Pearl Mining)

Börse: TSE in CAD / Kursstand: 21,81 CAD (Kanada-Dollar)

Kursverlauf von 24.01.2007 bis 05.10.2007 (log. Kerzenchartdarstellung / 1 Kerze = 1 Tag)

Rückblick: Der Kursverlauf seit April dieses Jahres zeigt die Konturen eines langgestreckten SSKS Trendwendeprozesses, der aber durch den Anstieg der vergangenen Handelstage im Begriff ist, abgebrochen zu werden. Entscheidend war hier der Anstieg über 19 CAD, da hier die Peaks der 3 Schultern lokalisiert sind. Heute sehen wir bei der Aktie ein kleines Gap Up aus einer Bullflag. Die Aktie ist ein beliebter Aktientitel bei spekulativ ausgerichteten Marktteilnehmern. Deshalb und wegen dem derzeit außerordentlich positiven Chartbild nun diese charttechnische Besprechung.

Charttechnischer Ausblick: Die Aktie von THOMPSON CREEK METALS hat gute Chancen direkt weiter anzusteigen. Das mittelfristige charttechnisch ermittelte Kursziel liegt bei ca. 34 CAD. Mittel- bis langfristig sehen wir einen Zielbereich von ca. 50 CAD. Bezgl. der kurzfristigen Marschroute läßt sich festhalten, dass ein Kursverfall unter 20,70 CAD eine Konsolidierung bis 19 CAD einleiten würde. Ausgehend von 19 CAD könnte dann die weitere Anstiegsphase starten. Ein merklicher Rückfall unter 19, CAD würde für eine zeitlich ausgedehnte Korrekturphase sprechen.

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RHENIUM

Nachfolgend einige Artikel zum Thema Rhenium, welches als Beiprodukt
bei der Herstellung von reinem Molybdän gewonnen wird.
Der Stoff ist immens wichtig für den Einsatz in modernen Elektronikkomponenten (z.B. in Speicherchips).

Rhenium kostet etwa 5500 US$ per kg, bzw 2500 US$ per pound/ib.
Es fallen aber nur geringste Mengen dieses Metalls bei der Molybdängewinnung an, das Verhältnis ist etwa 1:100.000.

Aus diesem Grund wird Rhenium selbst bei einer Vermehrfachung des
aktuellen Preises immer nur ein "Zubrot" bei der Molybdänherstellung bleiben.

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"Rhenium does not occur as the free element in nature. Rhenium is found as minor components in the mineral gadolinite, which contains beryllium, and molybdenite, which contains molybdenum. In practice, it is extracted commonly as a byproduct from molybdenum smelter flue dust. Rhenium is US$6000 per Troy ounce."



"...I have written here before how critical molybdenum is to industrial products,... But some recent news about the very rare platinum group metal, rhenium, makes the restriction of the molybdenum supply problem even worse. It has been discovered that rhenium can be used in electronic memory devices to dramatically increase their capacity. This has caused a sharp multiplying of the price of rhenium in a very short time.

It is not the fact that your iPod will be able to hold more songs that makes this new property of rhenium so important it is that satellites and military hardware will be able to be “smarter” due to rhenium. They will have more space to hold, not only data, but also more lines of code in the same volume, so that the satellites and controls can be programmed to be more versatile and have more capabilities.

The U.S. Defense Department has a problem with this; rhenium is a byproduct of molybdenum, which is a byproduct mainly of copper but also frequently of gold. He who cuts off or cuts back my molybdenum thus cuts off or cuts back my rhenium.

The U.S. Defense Department is also concerned about certain rare earth metals that are critical to modern electronics, because the world’s rare earth metal production is now almost completely concentrated in China.

Next time a commodity analyst talks to you about investing in globally sourced commodities ask him or her how you can analyze the affect of a situation where the commodity required is itself a byproduct of another commodity that has a different agenda for demand.

Perhaps the National Academy of Sciences should look into this, or perhaps, it already has or is doing so now, but the project is closed to the public.

The NAS officially exists to advise the government on the technical aspects of politically sensitive issues. Who advises the NAS about the global political and economic aspects of natural resource supply and demand? Perhaps it would behoove the NAS to invite Wall Street to participate in the next meeting of this committee.

In any case, readers should pay close attention to developments in the domestic supplies of zinc, lead, antimony, gold, and copper, because it is from these metals that we will get our domestic supply of indium, molybdenum, and rhenium as byproducts."



Quelle: stockhouse.ca

[Videomart]

Rhenium, a Byproduct of a Byproduct

By Jack Lifton
04 Oct 2007 at 04:24 PM GMT-04:00


DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com) -- An investor who bought the metal rhenium in January through December 2005 would have paid $600 per pound for it. It could have been purchased directly from Engelhard Corporation, then an American trading and R&D company specializing in precious metals primarily used in automotive emission and process chemical catalysis. Since then Engelhard has been purchased by Germany’s BASF and, operating as a profit centre, has been renamed BASF Catalysts. However, if today you approach BASF Catalysts to buy a pound of rhenium metal, it will cost you $2,500 as shown below:



Thus rhenium, which then and now is relatively easy to buy - although I don’t know of any seller other than BASF Catalysts - would seem to have been a much, much better investment than gold, silver, platinum or palladium in December 2005.

What is rhenium? What’s it got to do with molybdenum? Are there drivers for the price of rhenium that may drive it higher yet?

Rhenium is a silvery-white heavy metal, and it has the distinction of being the next-to-last element “discovered” which is present on the earth in sufficient concentration to be considered a “natural element.” It is a very chemically reactive metal with multiple valances. It has in fact more oxidation (valance) states than any other known element. It is element number 75, and so it lies between tungsten (74) and osmium (76) in the periodic table of elements and, like its neighbours, it is very dense.

Rhenium is produced commercially as a byproduct of a byproduct. It was originally produced in gram quantities in 1928 when its original discoverers, who had first isolated it from a platinum ore and in the mineral columbite in 1925, found that they could recover a gram of rhenium from 660 kilograms of the primary molybdenum ore, molybdenite. During World War II when it was discovered that rhenium was present in the flue dust generated by a molybdenum roaster, it was also discovered that a simple set of chemical operations could separate the rhenium from any residual molybdenum in the flue dust. The rhenium was then converted to ammonium perrhenate, using the same reactions that are used to convert tungsten to ammonium pertungstate, and this salt is reduced to the metallic element by reacting it in a stream of heated hydrogen.

Today the same processes are used to produce rhenium metal, but the rhenium comes only from its presence in a concentration of between 2 and 2,000 parts per million in the molybdenum present as a byproduct in primary copper sulphide porphyry deposits. The largest one of these in production in the U.S. is Rio Tinto's [NYSE:RTP] Bingham Canyon (Kennecott) Complex in Utah. Rhenium is also produced from processing the molybdenum byproduct stream from several mines in Arizona.

Combining the above described American production with the same type of rhenium byproduct production from molybdenum byproduct production from porphyry copper sulphide deposits in Chile and Kazakhstan results in a global production of 50 metric tonnes per year at the present time in association with the present levels of copper production from the right type of ores those three countries.

There is more rhenium produced annually today than rhodium, ruthenium or gallium by a factor of from 3:2, rhodium and ruthenium, to greater than 1:1, ruthenium. Platinum and palladium are produced at a volume each of about 4 times as much as rhenium.

These numbers, along with the fact that rhenium is the element just before osmium, one of the six platinum group metals in the periodic table, probably explain why some people call rhenium the seventh platinum group metal and others call it a “precious metal.”

Rhenium was actually just of academic interest until after World War II because the cost of recovering it and its linkage to the recovery of molybdenum, not then in much demand, made rhenium just too expensive to obtain in a commercial quantity.

This situation changed over the next half century as new technologies called for the development of high temperature, corrosion resistant, strong alloys for high amperage mechanical electrical contacts and for jet and rocket engine exhaust mediators and controls. In addition, rhenium platinum alloys were found effective in the catalytic refining of oil especially to produce gasoline fractions for unleaded fuels.

Simultaneously with the above new uses for rhenium, there has been an explosion of need for the much more abundant 179,000 metric tonnes produced in 2006 and the more easily obtained metal molybdenum. In just the last decade the demand for molybdenum, and also for high temperature alloys and corrosion resistant materials used in particular in the automotive and oil field tubular goods industries, has increased dramatically. These uses drove the recovery of molybdenum from copper and this enabled rhenium to be recovered. They also have driven the price of molybdenum to as much as 10 times its price early in this century.

In just the last two years as some copper miners have begun to count on molybdenum values as part of their bankability, there has also been a significant increase in demand for rhenium by the U.S. military and by an unexpected chemical discovery. First of all, the U.S. military needs rhenium critically in order to produce parts for the control of the exhaust of the very high temperature jet engines used in stealth aircraft where the exhaust heat must be absorbed and carried away to be radiated from the aircraft at a temperature below that at which IR heat seeking missiles will be enabled to target the engines.

Second, it has been discovered that rhenium diboride can be made easily by simply reacting elemental rhenium and boron and that the resultant compound is harder than diamond. Pure gaseous boron hydrides are cheap and easy to make and handle and have been studied for a long time - I myself did graduate research on boron hydrides as potential rocket fuel in the early 1960s. Thus a tool or any complex metal object can be coated with rhenium and then, at a fairly low temperature, which won’t affect the temper of the machined tool, the rhenium coating can be exposed to and reacted with a boron hydride to form in-place a hard wear-resistant surface. I predict that this use of rhenium will grow so long as the price of industrial diamonds, or forming diamond coatings on tool steel, is higher than the cost of rhenium and of forming rhenium diboride on those same surfaces.

Rhenium’s price has flattened at a new high value for the moment because a company which had inventoried rhenium to produce electrical contact alloys, Brush Technology, sold off its inventory earlier this year to take advantage of the climbing price to beef up its balance sheet. This action increased supply temporarily.

However, the U.S. Defense Department is now actively looking for rhenium both in the market and as a possible off-take from copper-molybdenum-rhenium mining. This action is a current driver for the bankability of molybdenum byproduct production, and it joins the long term driver of the need for molybdenum for use in making specialty steels for the transportation of sour crude oils and the intermediate products of the production of oil from tar sands in Canada. Any molybdenum produced as a byproduct of copper production is likely to have rhenium content.

So, rhenium production is at a relative peak, and it is a critical metal for the defence industry, and its compounds with boron can be used to replace diamonds in precision machining.

I think that as long as molybdenum is also in such demand that it is produced as a byproduct of porphyry copper sulphide deposits, there will be now also be rhenium production. I know of few operating molybdenum roasters in the U.S., and I believe that one is located by Blue Pearl’s Thompson Creek [TSX:TCM] unit and is in Pennsylvania. There may be another one in Minnesota, but I don’t know if it’s in operation today. Phelps Dodge, now Freeport McMoran [NYSE:FCX], has a molybdenum roaster at its Sierrita Mine & Mill Complex in Arizona, along with a U.S. rhenium recovery circuit. The product is rhenium oxide, however, not yet the metal itself.

I don’t know how much longer, if at all, civilians will be able to buy rhenium easily, but you can always invest in whoever is recovering molybdenum as a byproduct from porphyry copper sulphide mining and smelting.

Ask the miners if they have rhenium, and if they say yes, ask them if they are having it recovered and refined, and if so, ask them what value it is bringing to their balance sheet.

There’s a new sophisticated world of mining out there, and any increase in the supply of rhenium will be marginal, but I don’t think that the demand will subside. I repeat that the rhenium play is molybdenum, but it will only be some of the molybdenum producers who have rhenium, and only a few of those who recover it, or, sadly, even today even know if it’s there.


Quelle: www.resourceinvestor.com

[Videomart]

Fakten und Zahlen zur Weltproduktion von Rhenium:

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rhenium/rhe…

[Videomart]

Pre-publication offer for The Economics of Rhenium


The Economics of Rhenium, 7th Edition, 2007

The new Roskill report on the rhenium industry will be published in October 2007. It will provide up-to-date market analysis of resources, production, consumption, end-use market trends, international trade and prices.

Like all Roskill reports, this new edition of The Economics of Rhenium will give you a completely impartial industry overview. Our expert researchers have made a thorough and objective analysis of all available data from the world's most reliable sources, including a large and invaluable network of industry contacts. That's why the breadth, depth, accuracy and expertise of our research is unrivalled.

The new edition of this report has been extensively revised and updated, containing the most up-to-date information available on the rhenium industry.

This report offers you in-depth, independent analysis of the current and future supply, demand from end-use markets, and the implications these developments are likely to have on prices in the future, including:

> Three companies produce nearly all primary rhenium, Molymet of Chile, Zhezkazganredmet (Red Met) of Kazakhstan and Phelps Dodge of the USA. Molymet is by far the largest producer, accounting for about 45% of primary rhenium (20,100kg) in 2006. The company plans to open a new molybdenum roaster in 2007, which could be capable of recovering as much as 8.5tpy of rhenium.

> Since the 1980s, demand for nickel-based superalloys has grown rapidly and is now the single largest market for rhenium, accounting for over 75% of the world total. Rhenium-bearing superalloys were originally developed by aircraft engine manufacturers. These are capable of operating at much higher temperatures, and for longer periods of time, than previous alloys, and led to major changes in aircraft design. Demand for rhenium in this sector will remain strong, as there are currently no substitutes.

> The current supply-demand balance for rhenium is very tight and is likely to tighten further, at least in the short term. World demand in 2006 was estimated at 62,000kg of which 44,600kg (72%) was met by primary production. The balance was largely from recycled material and the sale of stock from Kazakhstan. Demand is forecast to continue growing in coming years, largely because of anticipated growth in passenger and military aircraft.

> Strong demand from the aerospace sector and limited supplies has led to strong growth in prices since 2006. The price of ammonium perrhenate has risen from around US$1,000/kg at the start of 2006 to over US$7,000/kg. Roskill expects prices to continue rising in the short term but anticipates that new capacity, both primary and secondary, may be brought online within three to five years. Prices for ammonium perrhenate could rise to US$10,000/kg by 2009 before stabilising on or close to this level, depending on the supply/demand balance.


Quelle: www.roskill.com

[Videomart]

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/mms/cmy/content/2005/rhenium.pdf

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rhenium/rhe…

[Videomart]

World production and recovery of rhenium

http://www.gii.co.jp/sample/pdf/ros18002.pdf

[Videomart]

Structural Changes in Molybdenum Demand

by Denis Battrum, March 27, 2007

http://sprottmoly.com/pdf/Structural_Change_Denis_Battrum_Ma…

[Videomart]

Expanded Uses of Molybdenum in the Energy Industry

by Denis Battrum, October 12, 2007

http://www.thompsoncreekmetals.com/i/pdf/MolyEnergyOctober12…

[Videomart]

LONDON, Oct 25 - Strong demand of more than 4 percent a year and stagnant supplies will boost prices of molybdenum, prized for its ability to harden stainless steel.

ADVERTISEMENT
Molybdenum hit a 16-month low of $21 a pound in February 2006, but has since recovered to around $32 a pound, only $7 away from the record high around $39 set in June 2005, when a processing bottleneck hit supplies.

Three-quarters of global annual molybdenum production is used to manufacture stainless steel, demand for which is expected to grow by around 6 percent a year for some years.

"Demand is forecast to increase by 4 to 5 percent a year," Larry Reaugh, executive chairman at Toronto-listed Adanac Molybdenum Corporation said at an event organised by Mining Communications.

That forecast compares with averages around 3 percent in previous years. Much of the demand for stainless steel is seen coming from emerging market countries such as China, which is spending large amounts on building infrastructure.

Molybdenum is used the oil industry for steel pipes and as a catalyst in petroleum refining. Molybdenum sulphide is also a good lubricant, especially at high temperatures where normal oils decompose.

Last year total global molybdenum production and demand at more than 420 million pounds was roughly balanced, according to the International Molybdenum Association.

Molybdenum is mined for itself and is also a by-product of copper production.

"Seventy percent of output in the Western world is a by-product of copper, is stagnating," said Anthony Warwick-Ching at consultants CRU Group.

"Primary mines are close to capacity. Supply has to be pretty tight for a while ahead."

As molybdenum prices started to rise in 2004 many miners switched from producing copper.

"That phase is ending now," Warwick-Ching said. "They've taken out all the easily available material.

Speakers at the event also highlighted China's growing role in the world market for molybdenum.

China last year accounted for about 30 percent of world supplies from about 10 percent a few years ago.

But that number could be drastically lower this year as the country is on a drive to shut down polluting mines.

"China has shut down over 300 moly mines," said Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Toronto-listed Thompson Creek Metals Company . "Exports from China have been declining this year ... Over the next few years we're set to have a good time."


Quelle: stockhouse.ca

[Videomart]

Nachfolgend ein hochinteressanter Bericht über Molybdän:
(vielen Dank an etuo für die Recherche )

Molybdenum... The Evolution of an Industry

http://www.ttmresources.ca/news/scotia07-10.pdf

[Videomart]

Thu Nov 8, 2007
Thompson Creek Announces Positive Endako Mine Expansion Feasibility Study

Incremental capital cost of C$373 million required to expand Endako mill capacity by 78%.

Estimated payback from cash flow within three years of becoming fully operational in 2010.

Annual molybdenum production would rise to approximately 16 million pounds from current 11.2 million pounds.

Long-term average costs would decline by over C$2 per pound.

IRR would be 21.3% at assumed molybdenum prices including a long-term price of US$14 per pound starting in 2012 but sensitivity analysis shows IRR would increase to 31% if molybdenum prices are 20% higher.
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., one of the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, today announced the results of the feasibility study conducted by Hatch Ltd. on the proposed mill expansion at the Endako Mine in Northern British Columbia. The Endako Mine is operated as a joint venture with Thompson Creek holding a 75% interest and Sojitz Corporation, a Japanese company, holding the remaining 25% interest.

"The Endako expansion feasibility study indicates a potential significant return on investment for Thompson Creek and its shareholders," said Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer. "However, we have not yet decided to proceed with the expansion. We first must review the details of the Hatch study and evaluate it with Sojitz Corporation, our joint venture partner at Endako. We anticipate making a decision on the expansion in the next few months."

The Hatch report evaluates the potential for increasing the processing rate at the Endako mill to 50,000 tonnes of ore per day from the current 28,000 tonnes per day -- an increase of 78%.

Hatch has estimated that incremental capital expenditures of C$373 million would be required for the expansion. This estimate is considered to be accurate within plus-or-minus 20%. The capital cost estimates include the acquisition of new equipment for the mine and mill and to increase roasting capacity to 21 million pounds a year, and a C$44 million contingency, but it does not include costs related to new mine equipment for sustained operation at current production rates. All calculations including capital costs assumed a July 2007 Canadian dollar exchange rate of C$1.00 = US$0.94.

The expanded facility could be fully operational by the second quarter of 2010 and would involve an increase in annual molybdenum production at Endako to approximately 16 million pounds beginning in 2010 from the current 11.2 million pounds a year. Of this production, 75% would be to Thompson Creek's account.

Based on molybdenum price assumptions made by management and used in the study, the internal rate of return (IRR) for the expanded operation would be 21.3% over a 16-year mine life (reduced from 27 years based on the current production rate).

Sensitivity analysis performed by Hatch showed an increase in the IRR to 31% if molybdenum prices are 20% higher than the assumed level, and a decline in the IRR to 16.9% if molybdenum prices are 20% lower.

Projected cash flow through payback of the investment is calculated as occurring in 2013, or approximately three years after commissioning of the expanded mill facilities in 2010.

Management has assumed molybdenum prices will be US$31.50 per pound in 2008, US$27 per pound in 2009, US$23 per pound in 2010, US$17.50 per pound in 2011 and US$14 per pound thereafter. These were converted in the report in Canadian dollars at the assumed exchange rate for the Canadian dollar of C$1.00 = US$0.94 cents.

Fixed and variable operating costs for the expanded operation over the entire 16-year period are estimated at C$6.85 per tonne of ore milled, compared with the current cost of C$8.52 per tonne. The estimated cost reduction of C$1.67 per tonne is largely attributable to the dilution of fixed costs at higher capacity.

This is equivalent to a reduction in long-term average costs to C$7.93 per pound of molybdenum from C$10.39 per pound under the current production rate.

The proposed expansion would include a new crushing, grinding and flotation process, including one SAG mill and two ball mills, seven stages of rougher/scavengers and three stages of cleaners for the flotation process.

The new process would result in a projected recovery improvement of four percentage points. Of this, 1.5 percentage points would be due to the increased retention time in the new rougher scavenger flotation cells and a further 2.5 percentage points due to the finer grind size afforded by the new milling circuit.

Kenneth Collison, P.Eng., Chief Operating Officer, Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., who is a "qualified person" as such term is defined under National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the contents of this news release.

About Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (formerly Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.) is one of the largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers in the world. The Company owns the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in Idaho, a 75% share of the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania. Thompson Creek is also developing the Davidson high-grade underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The Company has more than 700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive offices in Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing) and Vancouver, British Columbia. More information is available at www.thompsoncreekmetals.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains "forward-looking information" which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the timing and amount of estimated future production. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", or "believes" or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Thompson Creek and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include those factors discussed in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Thompson Creek's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2006 which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although Thompson Creek has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and Thompson Creek disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Thompson Creek undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

For more information, please contact:

Ian McDonald
Executive Chairman
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.
Tel: [phone]
[e-mail]

Wayne Cheveldayoff,
Director of Investor Relations
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.
Tel: [phone]
Toll free: 1-800-827-0992
[e-mail]

Tina Cameron
Renmark Financial Communications Inc.
Tel.: [phone]
[e-mail]

[Videomart]

#1187 von chartex 09.11.07 12:08:44 Beitrag Nr.: 32.359.283

Das wichtigste aus der Veröffentlichung der Quartalszahlen für das 3. Quartal 2007


- Die Prognose der im Jahr 2007 produzierte Molybdänmenge wird von 20 Mio Pfund auf 17,5 - 18 Mio Pfund reduziert.
Für 2008 wird eine Produktionssteigerung auf 24 - 25,5 Mio Pfund erwartet.
Für 2009 wird eine Produktionssteigerung auf 34 Mio Pfund erwartet.
Diese Zahlen beinhalten noch keine Produktion aus der Davidson-Mine.

- Die Einkünfte waren 200,9 Mio $ im 3.Quartal und 716,6 Mio $ in den ersten 9 Monaten.

- Der Nettogewinn war 23,9 Mio $ oder 0,21 $ pro Aktie (0,18 $ bei voller Verwässerung) im 3. Quartal und 128,5 Mio $ oder 1,18 $ pro Aktie (1,05 $ verwässert) in den ersten 9 Monaten.

- Der Gewinn im 3. Quartal wurde vermindert durch eine Quellensteuerzahlung in Höhe von 4,5 Mio $ entstanden durch die Verteilung des Gewinnes über Ländergrenzen hinweg.
Weiterhin wurde ein Jahresbonus in Höhe von 8,7 Mio $ an die Beschäftigten gezahlt (für Zeitraum Juli 2006 bis Juni 2007).

- Bedingt durch die niedrigere Molybdänmenge, welche produziert wurde, stiegen die Kosten pro Pfund der produzierten Menge.

- Die Schulden (aus der Thompson Creek Übernahme) wurden im 3. Quartal um 17,3 Mio $ getilgt (seit Jahresbeginn getilgt um 150,9 Mio $) und betragen zum 30.September 2007 noch 252,8 Mio $. Der Cash-Bestand hat sich erhöht auf 96,4 Mio $.

- Der tatsächlich erzielte Verkaufspreis während des 3. Quartales lag bei 32,05 $ pro Pfund Molybdän (29,59 $ im 2.Quartal und 25,57 $ im ersten Quartal).


Im 3. Quartal wurden 8,6 Mio t taubes Gestein entfernt um Zugang zum Erz der Phase 6 des Minenplanes zu erhalten. Seit Beginn des 4. Quartales wird nun Erz aus der Phase 6 verarbeitet und die Produktionsmenge soll dadurch deutlich steigen. Das Unternehmen erwartet im 4. Quartal eine Produktionsmenge zwischen 4,5 und 5 Mio Pfund (für beide Minen Thompson Creek und Endako).
In Q1 wurden produziert: 5,4 Mio Pfund
In Q2 wurden produziert: 4,5 Mio Pfund
In Q3 wurden produziert: 3 Mio Pfund

Die verminderte Produktionsmenge in Q3 (und damit für das Gesamtjahr) ergab sich aus einer für das Unternehmen unerwarteten Verzögerung beim Entfernen des tauben Gesteins. Der Zeitverzug beträgt zweieinhalb Monate. Man hatte aufgrund der ursprünglichen Planung erwartet, bereits in 2007 wieder das hochgradige Erz abbauen zu können. Nun wird dieses hochwertige Erz erst ab 2008 zur Verfügung stehen. Hingegen hat sich gezeigt, dass das ab 2009 abgebaute Erz höhergradig sein wird, als ursprünglich vorgesehen. Daraus ergibt sich für 2009 eine deutliche Steigerung gegenüber der bisherigen Planung.

Für die Thompson Creek Mine läuft die Neuberechnung der Rohstoffreserven und eine Ausweitung des Minenplanes. Die Arbeiten sollen später in diesem Jahr abgeschlossen sein.

Für das Davidson-Projekt arbeitet eine externe Firma eine Feasibility-Studie aus. Diese soll noch in 2007 abgeschlossen sein.


Das Unternehmen blickt zuversichtlich in die Zukunft. Die erwartet Produktionssteigerung von 17,5 - 18 Mio Pfund in 2007 auf 34 Mio Pfund in 2009 macht etwa 100% aus. Der Molybdänpreis wird in dieser Zeit als weiterhin hoch eingeschätzt.

(Quelle: News vom 09.11.2007, die kompletten Unterlagen sollen über die Website des Unternehmens und über www.sedar.com abrufbar sein)

---------------------------------------

Mein Kommentar:
Diese auch vom Unternehmen nicht vorhergesehenen Verzögerungen bei dem Übergang auf die Phase 6 des Abbaues haben, bedingt durch einen Produktionsrückgang in Höhe von mehr als 2 Mio Pfund in diesem einen Quartal über das ohnehin bereits reduzierte Produktionsziel hinaus, alle Gewinnschätzungen zu Makulatur werden lassen. Auch in 2008 wird die Zeitverzögerung sich noch bemerkbar machen, indem die Produktionsziele um 1,5 - 3 Mio Pfund gekürzt wurden.
Im Gegenzug wurde das Produktionsziel für 2009 kräftig erhöht. Von ursprünglich geplanten 31 Mio Pfund (ohne Davidson) auf nunmehr 34 Mio Pfund.

Zugleich wurde die Feasibility-Studie für die Erweiterung von Endako zu einem Super-Pit vorgestellt. Ich persönlich habe keinen Zweifel daran, dass diese Erweiterung stattfinden wird. Die Auswirkungen in Form von erhöhtem Gewinn sehen wir erst ab 2010, als "Phantasie für die Zukunft" sind sie jedoch bereits jetzt kursrelevant. Genauso, wie die Reservenausweitung für Thompson Creek und die Feasibility für Davidson sich nicht unmittelbar in Zusatzgewinn niederschlagen wird. An der Börse wird jedoch die Zukunft gehandelt, und ein Unternehmen, welches nicht nur für die nächsten 2 Jahre eine Perspektive bieten kann, sondern mit kräftigen Steigerungen und Plänen für die darauffolgenden Jahre (Minenlaufzeit Endako 27 / 16 Jahre, Ausweitung der Minenlaufzeit Thompson Creek von 9 auf xx Jahre, Laufzeit Davidson xx Jahre) wird auch heute bereits höher bewertet als ein Unternehmen ohne diese Perspektiven.
Die Zahlen für das Q3 sind eine Enttäuschung, das ist ganz offensichtlich. Aber diese Zahlen sind auch bereits Vergangenheit. Diese schwierige Phase liegt hinter uns. Im November 2007 zählt nicht mehr das KGV von 2007 sondern das erwartete KGV von 2008. Und dieses liegt, auch wenn man die etwas reduzierte Produktionsmenge in Betracht zieht, im Bereich von 6. Ein Wert, der auch für die Minenbranche, die mit den KGVs anderer Bereiche um die 13 bis 15 (bei Wachstumswerten auch noch viel höher) nicht ganz mithalten kann, viel zu niedrig ist. Eine Kursverdoppelung im Verlauf von 2008 ist damit durchaus vorstellbar, insbesondere wenn man in Betracht zieht, dass aufgrund der Knappheitsituation der Molypreis auch noch deutlich über den derzeitigen Stand ansteigen könnte.
Auch wenn diese Zahlen heute für einige Turbulenzen im Kursgeschehen sorgen, so steht einem deutlichen Kursanstieg auf Sicht von Wochen oder Monaten nichts im Wege. Spannend bleibt, wie die beiden News heute Nachmittag in Kanada aufgenommen werden. Immerhin war es gut bekannt, dass das 3. Quartal das schlechtest sein würde und mit einem deutlichen Gewinneinbruch wurde wohl auch gerechnet.

chartex

[allesaufblau]

der Vollständigkeit halber hier das Original:

Thompson Creek announces third-quarter financial results and revised outlook

Shares outstanding: 113,297,000

TSX: TCM, TCM.WT
Frankfurt: A6R

TORONTO, Nov. 9 /CNW/ -

Overview (all in U.S. dollars):
- Molybdenum production estimates have been revised downwards for 2007
and 2008 and upwards for 2009. Production is now estimated at between
17.5 and 18 million pounds in 2007, between 24 and 25.5 million
pounds in 2008, and in excess of 34 million pounds in 2009 (not
including any potential production from the Davidson Deposit).
- Revenues were $200.9 million in the third quarter and $716.6 million
in the first nine months of 2007.
- Net income was $23.9 million or $0.21 per basic and $0.18 per diluted
share in the third quarter and $128.5 million or $1.18 per basic and
$1.05 per diluted share in the first nine months of the year.
- Net income during the third quarter was negatively affected by a
withholding tax expense of $4.5 million on the cross-border
distribution of earnings and an $8.7 million annual bonus to
employees paid for the 12-month period ending June 30, 2007.
- Lower molybdenum production due to lower-grade ore increased per-
pound operating costs in the third quarter.
- Debt was reduced by $17.3 million during the third quarter and by a
total of $150.9 million since the beginning of 2007. At September 30,
2007, the principal outstanding on the First Lien Credit Facility was
$252.8 million and cash balances totaled $96.4 million.
- Average realized prices on molybdenum sales rose to $32.05 per pound
in the third quarter from $29.59 in the second quarter and $25.57 in
the first quarter.

Note: A conference call and webcast for analysts and investors is
scheduled for Friday, November 9, 2007 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. ("the Company"), one of the world's
largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, today announced financial
results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007 prepared in
accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar
amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.
"The second half of 2007 is a transition period for the Company as
molybdenum production has been lower than what we achieved in the past and
substantially below the level we will be able to achieve in future years,"
said Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Production in the third quarter was reduced from the second quarter
mainly due to the processing of low-grade stockpiled ore at the Thompson Creek
mill in Idaho while the stripping of 8.6 million tonnes of waste rock occurred
to gain access to Phase 6 ore at the mine. However, the mill shifted to
processing some Phase 6 ore at the beginning of the fourth quarter. As a
result, molybdenum production is expected to increase. The Company estimates
production from both the Thompson Creek and Endako mines combined will be
between 4.5 and 5 million pounds in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared with
3 million pounds in the third quarter. The Company produced 4.5 million pounds
of molybdenum in the second quarter and 5.4 million pounds in the first
quarter of 2007.
"We remain confident that the future bodes well for the Company. We
expect molybdenum production from our two existing mines to rise from between
17.5 and 18 million pounds in 2007 to in excess of 34 million pounds in 2009 -
a rise of about 100% -- at a time when molybdenum prices are likely to remain
relatively strong," Mr. Loughrey stated.

Financial Results

Thompson Creek's revenues totaled $200.9 million in the third quarter of
2007 and $716.6 million in the first nine months of the year. Third-quarter
revenues were positively affected by a 8.3% rise in the average price realized
on the Company's molybdenum sales between the second and third quarters of
2007. The average realized price was $32.05 per pound in the third quarter,
compared with $29.59 per pound in the second quarter and $25.57 per pound in
the first quarter. No revenues were earned by Thompson Creek in the first nine
months of 2006 as it was in the development stage and did not own operating
properties at the time.
After the deduction of operating, selling, marketing, depreciation,
depletion and accretion costs, the Company generated income from mining
operations totaling $253.1 million in the first nine months of the year.
Income from mining operations was $60.9 million in the third quarter versus
$104.1 million in the second quarter and $88.1 million in the first quarter of
2007.
Net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $23.9 million or $0.21 per
basic and $0.18 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.8 million or
$0.06 per basic and diluted share a year earlier. The per-share figures are
based on a weighted-average number of shares outstanding of 112,875,000
(basic) and 129,638,000 (diluted) in the third quarter of 2007 and 50,186,000
(basic and diluted) a year earlier. At November 2, 2007 there were 113,297,000
shares outstanding.
Net income during the third quarter of 2007 was reduced by a withholding
tax expense of $4.5 million on the cross-border distribution of earnings.
Also, operating and general and administrative expenses in the quarter were
increased by an $8.7 million annual bonus to employees for the 12-month period
ending June 30, 2007.
Net income in the first nine months of 2007 was $128.5 million or
$1.18 per basic and $1.05 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $8.1
million or $0.17 per basic and diluted share a year earlier. The per-share
figures are based on a weighted-average number of shares outstanding of
109,151,000 (basic) and 121,985,000 (diluted) in the first nine months of 2007
and 47,755,000 (basic and diluted) a year earlier. Net income in the first
nine months was negatively affected by the inclusion in first-quarter
operating expenses of $29.6 million related to the inventory portion of the
purchase price adjustment associated with the Company's purchase of Thompson
Creek Metals Company USA (formerly known as Thompson Creek Metals Company) in
October 2006.
Cash flow from operating activities was $29.1 million in the third
quarter and $136.8 million in the first nine months of 2007, compared with
cash used of $3.3 million in the third quarter and $9.7 million in the first
nine months of 2006.
During the third quarter of 2007, the Company made payments of
$16.7 million to reduce its First Lien Credit Facility to $252.8 million on
September 30, 2007. This followed payments in the first half of the year to
reduce the First Lien Credit Facility by $70.5 million to $269.5 million on
June 30, 2007 and to fully discharge the $61.9 million Second Lien Credit
Facility.
Since the acquisition of the mining and metallurgical operations in
October 2006, the Company has used $210.6 million of cash to reduce debt by
$149.1 million and to pay the former owner $61.5 million in December 2006 for
certain receivables acquired on the acquisition date.
The Company is responsible for a future contingent payment amount to the
former owner of up to $125 million depending on the average price for
molybdenum. Since the average price for molybdenum is now expected to exceed
$25 per pound for 2007, the Company will be required to pay the former owner
$100 million of this contingent payment amount in January 2008, and the
Company has enough funds to make the payment. If the average price for
molybdenum exceeds $15 per pound in 2009, an additional $25 million will be
owed to the former owner in January 2010.
Cash balances were $96.4 million at September 30, 2007, compared with
$94.4 million at June 30, 2007, and $98.1 million at December 31, 2006.
The Company's mines produced 3.0 million pounds of molybdenum at an
average production cost of $11.63 per pound in the third quarter of 2007 and
12.9 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $7.69 per
pound in the first nine months of 2007.
The cited amounts for the third quarter and first nine months reflect
molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include
molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Company. The
average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for
molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but exclude deferred
development stripping costs.
The Thompson Creek Mine produced 1.1 million pounds at an average cost of
$15.57 per pound in the third quarter. The higher costs reflect the impact of
dividing the relatively fixed costs by a small number of pounds produced.
Production was lower than historic levels in the quarter because the mine was
producing primarily from lower-grade stockpiled material while waste material
was being stripped to access Phase 6 ore. In addition, the development work
for Phase 6 prevented access to exposed ore at the bottom of the Phase 5 pit.
In the first nine months of 2007, the Thompson Creek Mine produced 7.3 million
pounds at an average production cost of $7.20 per pound.
The Company's 75% share of Endako Mine's production was 1.9 million
pounds at an average cost of $9.27 per pound in the third quarter and
5.6 million pounds at an average cost of $8.34 per pound in the first nine
months of 2007. For both the three and nine-month periods, production was
lower than expected due to lower ore grades and lower recoveries in the
milling process.

Outlook

The molybdenum price has remained above $30 per pound subsequent to
quarter-end and with the one month delay in pricing for most contracts, the
Company will receive over $30 per pound for most of its fourth-quarter
production. The current worldwide supply and demand fundamentals suggest that
the molybdenum price will remain relatively strong for the foreseeable future.
Production for the nine months ending September 30, 2007 was lower than
historic levels largely because the Thompson Creek Mine was processing
lower-grade stockpiled ore while waste stripping occurred to access Phase 6
ore and also because of lower-than-expected grades at the Endako Mine.
Production for the last quarter of 2007 is expected to increase over the third
quarter as more Thompson Creek Mine production will come from Phase 6 ore and
as grades increase. Production for 2007 from both the Thompson Creek Mine and
from the Company's 75% interest in the Endako Mine is now expected to be in
the range of 17.5 to 18 million pounds, which is below the previous estimate
issued in January 2007 of approximately 21 million pounds. Production at the
Thompson Creek Mine is expected to be in the range of 10.0 to 10.3 million
pounds in 2007 while the Company's 75% share of Endako's production is
expected to total between 7.5 and 7.7 million pounds.
The Company has changed its forecast for molybdenum production for both
2008 and 2009. In summary, the Company expects its molybdenum production to be
in the range of 24.0 to 25.5 million pounds in 2008 versus a previous estimate
of 27 million pounds, and to exceed 34 million pounds in 2009 (without
including any potential from the Davidson deposit), up from a previous
estimate of 29 million pounds for that year.
The change in production estimates is mainly due to a change in the mine
plan at the Thompson Creek Mine as a result of several factors but primarily
due to the fact that stripping activity took longer than expected and the ore
body was reached 2.5 months later than planned. The shift from lower-grade ore
to higher-grade ore was expected to occur in 2007 but now the mining of some
of the lower-grade ore has been shifted into 2008. The production estimate for
2009, however, has been increased from previous estimates because the annual
average grade will be higher than previously expected, and the mill throughput
has been increased from the prior estimate. Production and cost ranges for the
Thompson Creek Mine and the Company's 75% share of Endako Mine are expected to
be as follows:

Molybdenum Production
Production Costs
(million pounds) ($ / lb)
2008 2009 2008 2009

Thompson Creek Mine 16.5 to 17 approx. 26 6.00 to 6.50 approx. 5.00

Endako Mine (TCM's
75% interest) 7.5 to 8.5 approx. 8 8.50 to 9.25 approx. 8.50

The Company has initiated a study to examine the feasibility of
increasing production at Endako by increasing mill processing capacity to
50,000 tonnes per day from the current average of 28,000 tonnes per day.
Results of the study were announced by the Company in a news release dated
November 8, 2007.
The Company is also re-evaluating mineral reserves and developing a new
mine plan for its Thompson Creek Mine. The work is expected to be completed
later this year.
A feasibility study of the Davidson Project is currently being prepared
by external consultants and is expected to be completed in 2007.
The Thompson Creek Mine production targets cited above will require
additional capital expenditures as will the Davidson development and any
potential increase in the Endako production. Later this year, once a decision
has been reached on the proposed Endako expansion and when the Davidson
feasibility is completed, the amount and timing of all the capital
expenditures will be finalized along with the related cash flows. The Company
will discuss these capital expenditure requirements with current and potential
lenders at that time.
Additional information on the Company's financial position is available
in Thompson Creek's Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and
Analysis for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007, which will be
filed with SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and posted on the Company's website
(www.thompsoncreekmetals.com).

Conference call and webcast

Thompson Creek will hold a conference call for analysts and investors to
discuss its third-quarter 2007 financial results on Friday, November 9, 2007
at 11 a.m. (Eastern).
Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief
Executive Officer, and Derek Price, Chief Financial Officer, will be available
to answer questions during the call.
To participate in the call, please dial 416-644-3430 or 1-800-588-4942
about five minutes prior to the start of the call.
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at
www.newswire.ca and www.thompsoncreekmetals.com.
An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-640-1917 or
1-877-289-8525 (Passcode 21252263 followed by the number sign) from 1:00 p.m.
on November 9 to 11:59 p.m. on November 16. An archived recording of the
webcast will also be available at Thompson Creek's website.

About Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (formerly Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.) is
one of the largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers in the world.
The Company owns the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in
Idaho, a 75% share of the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in
northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth,
Pennsylvania. Thompson Creek is also developing the Davidson high-grade
underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The Company has more than
700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive
offices in Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing) and Vancouver,
British Columbia. More information is available at
www.thompsoncreekmetals.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
----------------------------------------------------
This news release contains "forward-looking information" which may
include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the timing and
amount of estimated future production. Often, but not always, forward-looking
statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects",
"is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends",
"anticipates", or "believes" or variations (including negative variations) of
such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results
"may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved.
Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and
other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements
of Thompson Creek and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different from any
future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the
forward-looking statements. Such factors include those factors discussed in
the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Thompson Creek's annual information
form for the year ended December 31, 2006 which is available on SEDAR at
www.sedar.com. Although Thompson Creek has attempted to identify important
factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ
materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be
other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those
anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained
herein are made as of the date of this news release and Thompson Creek
disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as
a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can
be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as
actual results and future events could differ materially from those
anticipated in such statements. Thompson Creek undertakes no obligation to
update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates
or opinions should change. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place
undue reliance on forward-looking statements.


Consolidated Balance Sheets
At September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006
(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)

September 30 December 31
2007 2006
------------ ------------
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 96,443 $ 98,059
Accounts receivable 81,846 84,476
Product inventory 121,554 131,269
Material and supplies inventory 27,411 25,498
Prepaid expenses and other assets 3,421 3,015
Income and mining taxes recoverable 20,276 -
------------ ------------
350,951 342,317
Property, plant and equipment 501,722 480,187
Reclamation deposits 26,090 23,005
Restricted cash 9,847 8,081
Goodwill 154,081 46,322
------------ ------------
$ 1,042,691 $ 899,912
------------ ------------
------------ ------------
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 40,578 $ 38,794
Acquisition cost payable 100,000 -
Current portion of long-term debt 66,893 73,758
Income and mining taxes payable - 29,407
Future income and mining taxes 3,009 16,769
------------ ------------
210,480 158,728
Long-term debt 187,192 324,048
Asset retirement obligations 28,266 25,992
Sales contract liabilities 18,844 11,421
Severance and other liabilities 9,848 8,008
Future income and mining taxes 148,599 147,664
------------ ------------
603,229 675,861
------------ ------------
Shareholders' Equity
Common shares 264,724 210,857
Warrants 35,041 35,445
Contributed surplus 22,427 14,953
Retained earnings (deficit) 100,903 (27,579)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 16,367 (9,625)
------------ ------------
439,462 224,051
------------ ------------
$ 1,042,691 $ 899,912
------------ ------------
------------ ------------


Consolidated Statements of Income (Loss)
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 and 2006
(US dollars and share amounts in thousands, except per share amounts -
Unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended
September 30 September 30
2007 2006 2007 2006

Revenues
Molybdenum sales $ 195,905 $ - $ 697,895 $ -
Tolling and
calcining 4,951 - 18,712 -
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
200,856 - 716,607 -
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Cost of sales
Operating expenses 125,410 - 414,985 -
Selling and marketing 2,378 - 7,466 -
Depreciation and
depletion 11,783 - 39,834 -
Accretion 379 - 1,209 -
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
139,950 - 463,494 -
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Income from mining
operations 60,906 - 253,113 -

Other expenses (income)
General and
administrative 2,579 487 9,361 1,469
Exploration and
development 1,071 2,375 5,301 6,963
Interest and
finance fees 7,843 - 35,381 -
Stock-based
compensation 3,115 - 11,543 496
Interest income (1,844) (67) (6,007) (171)
Other 1,436 - 2,820 (6)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
14,200 2,795 58,399 8,751
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Income (loss)
before taxes 46,706 (2,795) 194,714 (8,751)

Income and mining taxes
(recoverable)
Current 14,675 - 86,501 -
Future 8,083 - (20,269) (620)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
22,758 - 66,232 (620)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Net income (loss) $ 23,948 $ (2,795) $ 128,482 $ (8,131)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Net income (loss)
per share
Basic $ 0.21 $ (0.06) $ 1.18 $ (0.17)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Diluted $ 0.18 $ (0.06) $ 1.05 $ (0.17)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------


Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 and 2006
(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended
September 30 September 30
2007 2006 2007 2006

Operating Activities
Net income (loss) $ 23,948 $ (2,795) $ 128,482 $ (8,131)
Items not affecting
cash
Depreciation and
depletion 11,783 - 39,834 -
Accretion 380 - 1,209 -
Amortization of
finance fees 729 - 7,146 -
Gain on other
derivative
instruments (1,227) - (2,615) -
Stock-based
compensation 3,115 - 11,543 496
Future income and
mining taxes 8,083 - (20,269) (620)
Gain on sale of
marketable
securities - - - (6)
Change in non cash
working capital (17,694) (493) (28,486) (1,450)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Cash generated by
(used in) operating
activities 29,117 (3,288) 136,844 (9,711)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Investing Activities
Property, plant and
equipment (3,801) - (9,439) (444)
Deferred stripping costs (9,896) - (25,516) -
Restricted cash (81) - (1,503) (235)
Reclamation deposits (1,890) - (2,626) -
Proceeds from
disposition of
marketable securities - - - 26
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Cash used in investing
activities (15,668) - (39,084) (653)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Financing Activities
Proceeds from issue of
common shares 4,805 1,167 48,504 6,732
Long-term debt
repayments (17,333) - (150,867) -
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Cash provided by
(used in) financing
activities (12,528) 1,167 (102,363) 6,732
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Effect of exchange
rate changes on cash
and cash equivalents 1,169 (8) 2,987 (56)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

Increase (decrease)
in cash and cash
equivalents 2,090 (2,129) (1,616) (3,688)

Cash and cash
equivalents,
beginning of period 94,353 5,356 98,059 6,915
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Cash and cash
equivalents, end of
period $ 96,443 $ 3,227 $ 96,443 $ 3,227
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------


Consolidated Statements of Retained Earnings (Deficit)
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 and 2006
(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended
September 30 September 30
2007 2006 2007 2006

Retained earnings
(deficit), beginning
of period $ 76,955 $ (12,272) $ (27,579) $ (6,936)
Net income (loss) 23,948 (2,795) 128,482 (8,131)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Retained earnings
(deficit), end of
period $ 100,903 $ (15,067) $ 100,903 $ (15,067)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------


Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 and 2006
(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended
September 30 September 30
2007 2006 2007 2006

Net income (loss) $ 23,948 $ (2,795) $ 128,482 $ (8,131)
Other comprehensive
income (loss)
Foreign currency
translation
adjustment 12,322 (6) 25,992 (220)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Comprehensive income
(loss) $ 36,270 $ (2,801) $ 154,474 $ (8,351)
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

For further information: Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Thompson Creek
Metals Company Inc., Tel: [phone], [e-mail]; Wayne
Cheveldayoff, Director of Investor Relations, Thompson Creek Metals Company
Inc., Tel: [phone], Toll free: 1-800-827-0992,
[e-mail]; Tina Cameron, Renmark Financial Communications
Inc., Tel.: [phone], [e-mail]

[Videomart]

Moly Contract Term In USA For 2008 Changes In Anticipation Of Its Tight Supply

In anticipation of that the world supply situation of molybdenum in 2008 will tighten, many cases to shift contract term for molybdenum purchase to yearly base are coming up as a remarkable phenomenon. Particularly, in the USA market where molybdenum purchase is mainly based on spot contract, the case to change contract conditions is being seen and, furthermore, an extent for stable purchase of molybdenum is being enlarged through the movements to shift contract term for molybdenum to yearly base and also to expand a scale of yearly contract. The yearly contract for molybdenum purchase has been so far thought as Japan's speciality but the method to purchase molybdenum on yearlong base is now enlarging in the market.
The month of November is a time to renew molybdenum contract. Therefore, the parties concerned are strongly interested in the movements on supply and demand of molybdenum in next year of 2008 and it seems to be certain that the demand for molybdenum in 2008 will grow by 5% on an annualized base, corresponding to an increase of approximately 20 million lbs. on Mo content base. The world supply of molybdenum in 2008 will be surely affected by the matters, which molybdenum production in the western countries is hard to increase further and the regulations for exports of molybdenum products enforced by Chinese Government from July of 2007 will no doubt influence on the world situation of molybdenum supply like a body-blow. There is a strong opinion in the market that the regulations for exports of Chinese molybdenum products as mentioned above will deeply penetrate into the supply situation of molybdenum in 2008 rather than that in 2007. Also, a possibility to shrink the quantity of molybdenum as allocated to exports from China has existed.

Under the circumstances, molybdenum on spot contract is usually able to purchase at a lower price than that to be fixed on yearly contract but an expectation to the spot market is retreating. Many of spot cargoes came from China but, at present, the offers for molybdenum products from China have become a small number. As a matter of fact, in the course of the last 1 - 2 months, it has become difficult to obtain an offer for molybdenum from China. This real feeling of the aspect has multiplied an anxiety for spot purchase of molybdenum.

At present, spot prices of molybdenum products are <> ferro-molybdenum : at US$75 - 76 per kg. and <> molybdenum oxide : at US$32.5 - 33.0 per lb. respectively. The highest price of molybdenum oxide in the past years was US$41 per lb. as recorded in April - June quarter of 2005 but the second highest one was US$35.00 per lb. as seen in October - December quarter of 2005. If price of molybdenum oxide would continue to rise further gradually on a basic tone, it should be no wonder that price of molybdenum oxide rises again to a higher level than US$35 per lb. in 2008.

China exported 15,643 tons in material ferro-molybdenum in January - September of 2007, having increased by 8.2% compared with that ( 14,452 tons ) in the same period of 2006, but the monthly exports of Chinese molybdenum products from July and afterwards, when the regulations for exports of molybdenum products from China have been enforced ( allocated 16,000 tons on material base for shipments in the second half of 2007 ), were <> July : 2,097 tons, <> August : 1,306 tons and <> September : 1,622 tons, which decreased in comparison with the pace of 1,800 tons per month exported from China in the first half ( January - June ) of 2007.

A leading producer of molybdenum in the western world is Codelco of Chile. However, Codelco has been continuing to decrease their molybdenum production from 2007 ( scheduled to produce 50 - 52 million lbs. per annum of molybdenum in 2007, decreasing by 20% from that in 2006 ) and an anxiety for Codelco, which will also maintain their molybdenum production in 2008 on a low level, has been felt. However, the parties concerned said that the production activities of molybdenum in 2008 will be known only in December of this year. Even Kennecott of the USA has an anxiety to decrease their molybdenum production in 2008, because this molybdenum producer has been currently mining lower molybdenum contained ore bed.

Under the present situation, which the quantity of molybdenum recovered at copper mines has shared a 80% of the world production, the production activities of molybdenum at copper mines have grasped a key point of molybdenum production. It is true that, being stimulated by the steeply risen price of by-product molybdenum, copper mining companies were on a basic tone to increase their molybdenum production during a period of 2004 to 2006 but an attitude for molybdenum production taken by these companies is going to change. Namely, the matters in question are difficulties to increase molybdenum production and a decrease of molybdenum output in 2007.

For a reference, being encouraged by a sharp rise of prices for molybdenum products, new projects to develop molybdenum resources are being proceeded but many of these molybdenum projects are scheduled to complete in 2010 and afterwards and, accordingly, the projects to start molybdenum production in 2007 - 2008 have been limited.


Quelle: stockhouse.ca

[Videomart]

#151366 von RudiXXX 12.12.07 01:26:30 Beitrag Nr.: 32.734.199 (thx Rudi)

"Drum prüfe, wer sich ewig bindet, ob sich nicht was besseres findet"

Dieser Thread ist mittlerweile so kaputtignoriert, dass es keinen Spaß mehr macht.

Der Papst ist zwar mit seinem ganzen Gespamme hier etwas durch den Wind, aber seine Auffassung zum "Gewinne sichern" kann ich nachvollziehen; und er hat ja Recht, womit ich Patsa ebenfalls bestätige.

Es ist unstrittig,
- dass die Aktie fundamental gut da steht,
- dass das Marktsegment (Molybdän) langfristig tendenziell positiv angesehen wird,
- dass das Produkt gut, knapp und teuer ist.

aber, es ist ebenso war, das der Gesamtmarkt hochgradig nervös und irrational reagiert.

Der Sinn von Aktien lag in der Vergangenheit in der Nachhaltigkeit.
Die Aktie stellt ein Eigenkapital-Äquivalent dar. Der Anlagehorizont ist langfristig und zwar deutlich länger als übliche Laufzeiten von nachrangigen Fremdkapital-Finanzierungen für die die Firmen Zinsen bezahlen, womit alle Rechte und Pflichten an der Kapitalbereitstellung abgegolten sind.

Der Aktionär ist EIGENTÜMER und als solches trägt er Verantwortung.

Die moderne Technik aber läßt diesen ursprünglichen Zweck der Aktien in "EINE BESTIMMTE FIRMA" Geld zu investieren um damit gute Profite zu realisieren immer mehr verblassen. Die Aktie als Papier hat sich gelöst von dem konkreten Unternehmen. Sie wird nur noch geprägt vom Chart und vom Kurs und somit verliert sie den Charakter des Investments und verkommt zum Spekulationsobjekt. Der Spekulationsfaktor wird noch durch alle möglichen Derivate verstärkt.
Leider werden Anleger immer mehr zu bindungslosen, beliebig lenkbaren Spekulanten. Daher auch die hohe Volatilität an den Märkten. Es fehlt die Bindung zu seiner Firma, früher mehr regional oder fachlich oder persöhnlich. Diese Bindungslosigkeit der Globalisierung wird irgendwann den Kollaps mal völlig aus Versehen verursachen. Jeder rennt auf die selbe Seite des Schiffs und es kentert.


Jeder muß für sich eine Entscheidung treffen, was er von seiner Teilnahme am Börsengeschehen erwartet und für welchen Zweck er wie viele Gelder einsetzt.

Wer heute 1000% bei TCM/BLE im Depot hat, der hat eine Spekulation gekauft. Zum damaligen Zeitpunkt, war die Aktie eine Wette auf Davidson.
Wer 1000% hat und die Aktie heute noch hat, hat gegen seinen eigenen Investitionsplan verstoßen. Die Aktien hätte längst verkauft sein müssen und wären durch neue Wetten mit ebenso hoher Chance ersetzt.

Das hat er nicht getan , sondern wurde zum Investor.
Warum? Warum schmeißt er sein Prinzip über den Haufen?
Warum verläßt er sich plötzlich auf Fundamentaldaten?

Antwort: Er hat keine bessere Wette gefunden.


Ich habe TCM gekauft, als die Übernahme verkündet wurde, ab ca. 4,00EUR. und damit nur so ca. 200%
Ich hab TCM nie als Spekulation gesehen, sondern als Säule meiner Kapitalanlagen von denen ich langfristige Erträge erwarte.
Ich rechne mir den "Wertinhalt" des Papiers in Form Potential für Umsatz und Gewinn) als Form einer gedanklich abgezinsten Anleihe aus.
Für diesen Wertinhalt ist die Aktie immer noch sehr preiswert.

Diese Papiere stehen zu aller letzt zur Disposition.
Nur, wenn dieser erwartete Zinssatz nicht mehr paßt oder ein vergleichbares Invest mit höherem Zinssatz zur Verfügung steht stellt man das Gesamtpaket zur Disposition oder man entnimmt Erträge für den Verbrauch.

Ich seh nur wenige mit TCM gleichwertige Investments in diesem Segment wie z.B. CVRD, bei denen alles paßt.
Somit hab ich auch keine Handlungsnotwendigkeit meine TCM Aktien zu verkaufen.

Wenn der Papst seine 1000% sichern will, dann denkt er wieder wie ein Spekulant, er koppelt das Papier wieder von seiner ursprünglichen Bedeutung ab. Das ist nicht verwerflich.
Das Problem was er hat ist allerdings , er muß jetzt eine neue Wette finden, denn aus Investitionsgesichtpunkten hat er ja nicht verkauft.

Solange ich den Molypreis über 30 USD/lb sehe, denke ich nicht über den Verkauf nach.

Viel Erfolg allen die das Papier im Depot haben, egal aus welchen Gründen.

R.

[Videomart]

interessanter Artikel aus Welt.de (mit Dank an Chris68)



Neue Indizes setzen auf seltene Metalle
Hohe Nachfrage nach Molybdän oder Titan treibt Minenbetreiber-Aktien

Berlin - Die konjunkturelle Abschwächung in den USA hinterlässt auch an den Rohstoffmärkten deutliche Spuren. Der jahrelange Preisanstieg der Basismetalle ist jäh gestoppt worden. Kupfer, Blei und Nickel haben in den vergangenen Wochen deutlich an Wert verloren. Deren Notierungen hängen sehr stark von den wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten ab. Wenn weniger gebaut und produziert wird, verringert sich automatisch die Nachfrage nach Basismetallen.

Dass es sich bei der aktuellen Schwächephase um eine dauerhafte Trendwende handelt, darf mit Blick auf die unverändert stark wachsenden Schwellenländer wie China oder Indien jedoch bezweifelt werden. Deren Rohstoffhunger ist nämlich noch lange nicht gestillt. Von dem steigenden Bedarf dieser Boomregionen profitieren neben den großen Basismetallen auch die so genannten "seltenen Metalle". Dazu zählen zum Beispiel Molybdän, Titan, Tantal, Kobalt oder Beryll. Namen, die den meisten Anlegern größtenteils unbekannt sein dürften. Das ändert aber nichts daran, dass die Nachfrage nach diesen Rohstoffen zurzeit so hoch ist wie nie zuvor. Und auf der anderen Seite kann das Angebot nicht beliebig ausgeweitet werden, weil die Metalle in der Natur tatsächlich nur selten zu finden sind.


Quelle: welt.de am 15.12.2007

[horue]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.814.729 von Videomart am 19.12.07 14:37:00

nur haben wir nichts bemerkt, im gegenteil nur abwärts

[Videomart]

Molybdenum and Desalination

by Dennis Battrum

http://www.sprottmoly.com/pdf/11_07_moly_writeup.pdf

[Videomart]

Molybdenum Market Outlook
by Eric Sprott, Maria Smirnova

http://www.sprottmoly.com/pdf/moly-outlook.pdf

[Videomart]

TALK TO AN EXPERT:
The Case for Resources and Molybdenum
By Eric Sprott and Maria Smirnova,
Sprott Asset Management

http://www.sprottmoly.com/pdf/moly-barrons.pdf

[Videomart]

Nachfolgend ein interessanter Artikel zum Behandlungsprozeß von Molybdän:

http://www.moly.imoa.info/Default.asp?page=62

[Videomart]

Interessanter Artikel; etwas älter, aber nicht minder aussagekräftig:


Is It Molybdenum Supply or Demand in the News?
By Jack Lifton
01 Nov 2007 at 01:38 PM GMT-04:00

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=37367


Ein Auszug daraus:

I got the above information about molybdenum demand drivers and much more from a comprehensive study called “Expanded Uses of Molybdenum in the Energy Industry,” which is posted on and downloadable from the website of the Thompson Creek Mining Company. This is the single best narrowly focused yet detailed study of a metal’s demand that I have ever read. The author, Mr. Denis Battrum, was a purchasing manager for a very large privately owned commodity company and then for a large privately owned steel specialty producer before he became a market research provider. I don’t know Mr. Battrum, but I can tell you that he knows more about molybdenum’s end uses in the energy sector of the global economy than any person with a purchasing background in heavy industry who I have ever met, with one exception.

[Videomart]

Molybdenum Supply Forecasting
December 2007 Update

http://www.westerntroy.com/moly12-07.pdf

[Stocker_]

Niedliches Volumen ...

[Videomart]

Nachfolgend der Link auf einen hervorragenden Artikel über die Molybdängewinnung (Seiten 2 - 61) :

Rare Metals Refractory

Molybdenum
-Phillip Norris
-Michael Moscarda

http://www.mech.uwa.edu.au/unit/MATE3413/Metals%20Technologi…

[Videomart]

"Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 31st January 2008"

http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/200802/20080…

Molybdenum
China exported 20,214 tons in material of molybdenum products in the second half ( July - December ) of 2007, having substantially exceeded the quota for that period ( consisting of 12,000 tons for metallurgical use and 4,000 tons for chemical use ) and the reality is the ineffective regulations for exports of Chinese molybdenum products. However, this matter does not relate to prices of molybdenum products, which have been rising gradually on a basic tone since the beginning of this year. The prices of molybdenum products offered currently are US$78.50 - 79.00 per kg. of Mo CIF Japan for ferro-molybdenum and US$34 per lb. of Mo CIF for molybdenum oxide respectively. The undercurrent for these higher prices of molybdenum products is the decreased production of molybdenum in the western world or the difficulties to increase production of molybdenum. The supply situation of molybdenum in 2008 has been viewed as a shortage.

[Videomart]

"Facilities To Roast Molybdenum Are Strengthened Mainly By Major Enterprises"
-Total Capacity For Roasting Will Reach 127 Million Lbs. / Year With Its Completions During 2009 - 2010

http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/200712/20071…

[molyfan]

#157784 von chartex 22.02.08 15:27:14 Beitrag Nr.: 33.448.081



Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.444.396 von eyeworker am 22.02.08 10:10:35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zitat:
Dazu mal eine technische Frage:
In den Röster wird doch das zerkleinerte Erz aus den Mühlen
zugeführt, ist dies da schon reines Moly oder Gestein mit Moly-
Gehalt?
Sollte es nämlich nicht reines Moly sein, kommt mir hier folgendes
(sicher eher positiv auf die Preisentwicklung wirkend) in den Sinn:
Da, wie chartex bereits erwähnt, viele Producer in den letzten
Jahren (aufgrund hoher Preise) Gestein mit höherem Gehalt
ausgebeutet haben und nun verstärkt in Zonen mit niedrigerem
Gehalt eintauchen, würden die gesteigerten Kapazitäten `nur` die
Möglichkeit bieten, Mehrmengen an Gestein zu verarbeiten, aber
die produzierte Menge des Endprodunkts würde durch geringeren
Gehalt nicht wirklich steigen...
Oder habe ich hier einen Denkfehler?
---------------------------------------------------------------

Hallo eye,

das dem Röster zugeführte Molykonzentrat hat immer (etwas schwankend, je nach Qualität des Herstellungsprozesses) einen etwa gleichbleibenden Gehalt. Da das fertige Molyoxid eine Konzentration um 60% haben muss, ist diese Konzentration auch bereits beim nicht gerösteten Molykonzentrat erforderlich. Insofern hat also eine geringere Konzentration des abgebauten Erzes keinen wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Menge, die, begrenzt durch die Maximalkapazität der Röster, verarbeitet werden kann. Vielleicht wird es mit der unten stehenden Beschreibung etwas klarer.


Herstellung von Moly

Den Herstellungsprozess von Molybdän will ich nachfolgend in vereinfachter Form darstellen:

Für den Abbau interessant ist Erz, das in Konzentrationen ab 0,03% Mo vorliegt. Bei den derzeitigen Verhältnissen kann man davon ausgehen, dass ab etwa 0,05% Konzentration ein sehr profitabler Abbau als Open Pit, also im Tagebau, möglich ist. Wenn ein bergmänischer Abbau nötig ist, dann sollte der Gehalt mindestens 0,1% betragen.

Beispiele:

TCM hat in der Endako-Mine folgende Mo-Konzentrationen:
Proven Reserces: 0,053% bei einem Cut-Off von 0,04%
Probable Reserves: 0,049% bei einem Cut-Off von 0,04%

TCM hat in der Thompson Creek Mine folgende Mo-Konzentrationen:
Proven Reserves: 0,104% bei einem Cut-Off von 0,03%
Probable Reserves: 0,094% bei einem Cut-Off von 0,03%

TCM hat in seinem Davidson-Projekt (bergmänischer Abbau) Konzentrationen im Bereich von 0,3% bis 0,5%. Die genauen Zahlen werden aus der kommenden Feasibility-Studie zu entnehmen sein.

Hinweis: Erz, das eine geringere Konzentration als den Cut-Off-Grad hat, lohnt aus wirtschaftlichen Überlegungen nicht, abgebaut zu werden. Soweit es aus technischen Gründen trotzdem abgebaut werden muss, um Zugang zu Erz mit höherem Gehalt zu bekommen, wird das minderwertige Erz oftmals auf Halde gelegt, um am Ende der Minenlebensdauer als kleines "Zubrot" noch verarbeitet zu werden.
Hinweis: Wenn die Konzentration als MoS2 angegeben ist, dann muss die Konzentration noch durch 1,675 geteilt werden, um die Mo-Konzentration zu bekommen.

Nachdem das molybdänhaltige Erz abgebaut wurde, wird das Material in einem mehrstufigen Prozess zerkleinert bis auf eine staubartige Konsistenz (Korngröße 1 tausendstel Millimeter). Im Flotations-Prozess werden die Molybdän-Partikel dann in einer flüssigen Umgebung mit Hilfe von Luftblasen von dem Gesteinsstaub getrennt und auf diese Weise konzentriert. Das entstehende Molykonzentrat hat je nach Eigenschaften des verwendeten Erzes und der Optimierung des Konzentrationsprozesses etwa 60% Moly, wobei etwa 75% bis 80% des im Erz enthaltenen Moly tatsächlich gewonnen werden können.

Kleinere Mengen dieses Konzentrates, welches MoS2 enthält, können direkt zu Schmiermittel verarbeitet werden. Ansonsten muss das Konzentrat geröstet werden, um den Schwefel durch Einwirkung von Hitze in einer Sauerstoff-Umgebung (athmosphärische Luft) zu Molybdänoxid MoO3 umzuwandeln. Der frei werdende Schwefel muss aus Umweltschutzgründen aufgefangen werden und kann in Form von Schwefelsäure verkauft werden.

Das durch Rösten erzeugte Molybdänoxid wird, entsprechend der am Markt nachgefragten Mengen, zu einem Anteil von 30% bis 40% noch zu Ferro-Molybdän (FeMo) weiterverarbeitet (Zugabe von Eisenoxid und Reduktion durch Aluminuim oder in einem elektrischen Ofen.

chartex

[Videomart]

Schon etwas älter:


Tuesday, December 11, 2007
"Commodity Prospects – Molybdenum Outlook"

http://www.mylot.com/nr/viewframe.aspx?id=560844&url=http%3a…

[Videomart]

PDAC: "Special attention for Moly, Tungsten and Cobalt"

Posted: March 04, 2008, 3:00 PM by DrewHasselback
Mining, PDAC 2008

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive…

[molyfan]

Molybdenum demand marches forward

By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 3/5/2008 9:47:00 AM
World demand for steel-strengthening alloy molybdenum is expected to grow 5.8% this year, forecasts Catherine Virga of the CPM Group in New York. And with supply lagging demand, “present molybdenum prices (above $30/lb for the past 10 months) are sustainable,” she tells the annual meeting in Toronto of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada.

Moly demand is growing for the alloying metal because it enhances steel’s anti-corrosive properties and allows that metal to withstand higher temperatures. She points out that in pipeline-grade steel, “increasing molybdenum content to 0.5% (from 0.2%) can reduce the total tonnage of steel used in construction of the pipeline, allowing producers to cut costs, reduce the amount of welding and lower weight and transportation costs.”

So, Virga says the most recent climb in molybdenum prices can be attributed to increasing demand from the energy sector, which accounts for 78% of demand for the metal due to expanded sales of oil country tubular goods. Today, less molybdenum is being produced as a byproduct of copper mining in the U.S., Canada, Peru and Chile and more is coming from primary alloy producers in China, the U.S., and Canada.

Yet assured supply of the needed 400-450 million lb/year is being tightened by tough new government regulations on exports from key producers in China. And this will continue to be a supply base issue, she says, because the expected growth in demand will force world production to the 550-million-lb level by 2011.

http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6538452.html?industryid=…

[Videomart]

Ein interessanter Bericht über Molybdän:

http://www.wedgetail.net.au/documents/20071112-Molybdenum2-0…

[Videomart]

Energy Sector Fires Up Demand for Moly

By Laura Bobak
04 Mar 2008 at 12:03 PM GMT-05:00

TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- World molybdenum demand is expected to grow 5.8% this year, a base metals analyst told a commodities outlook forum at the annual PDAC convention in Toronto.

The most recent climb in molybdenum prices can be attributed to increasing demand from the energy sector, which accounts for 78% of demand for the metal, said Catherine Virga of CPM Group in New York.

"The trend in molybdenum prices and oil prices are highly correlated," Virga said.

Other factors include growing global steel production, where demand is relatively price inelastic, combined with a tightening of export quotas by the "wild card" of China, as well as a decline in output from copper miners who produce moly as a byproduct, Virga told a crowd of several hundred delegates gathered for the outlook session.

The rise follows a drop in price caused by de-stocking in the steel market and high-grading byproduct producers several years ago. Virga said the current rally in molybdenum prices is driven by several factors.

"Present molybdenum prices are sustainable," Virga said. "It's highly unlikely molybdenum prices will return to the $2 to $4 range seen in the 1990s."

In the past, previous rallies in molybdenum were triggered by temporary shocks in supply or demand, she said. For example, when crude oil production dropped during the energy crisis of the 1970s, molybdenum prices spiked.

Similarly, demand dropped in the 1980s for several factors, including overproduction by the steel industry.

Today, less molybdenum is being produced as a byproduct of copper, and it is increasingly coming from primary producers, she said. There are tighter regulations on Chinese producers.

In addition, the cost structure is rising: Virga predicts cash operating costs will have risen 200% from 2000 to 2011.

Meanwhile, there is a widening scope of end-uses for the metal, which has anti-corrosive properties, as well as an ability to withstand high heat. The metal is increasingly used in the energy sector, she said, as well as industrial development, construction, transportation and defence.

Another benefit is that other metals cannot be easily substituted for molybdenum. Finally, there are diminishing inventories for the metal, she said.

Most of the world's molybdenum originates as a byproduct of copper mining in the United States, Canada, Peru and Chile. However, molybdenum is increasingly derived as a primary product of deposits in China, the U.S. and Canada. There will be increasing regional diversification in production, and the major players will see their share of the current market shrink, down to about 82% in 2009, from 91% in 2003.

Virga projects that about half of world molybdenum production will originate from primary producers by 2011, pushing total world production to roughly 550 million pounds, from current levels of well over 400 million pounds.

According to Virga, the international political climate has resulted in the "locking up" of energy resources, which has spurred energy exploration and development in other countries.

In addition, emerging markets are placing increased pressure on global energy demand, with higher per capita energy consumption.

"Adding molybdenum to steel enhances corrosion resistance and strengthens steel to allow for thinner walls," said Virga.

"Increasing molybdenum content to 0.5% (from 0.2%) can reduce the total tonnage of steel used in construction of the pipeline allowing producers to cut costs: reducing the amount of welding, lowering weight and transportation costs."



Quelle:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40945

[Videomart]

"Moly miner Thompson Creek approves mill expansion"
By: Liezel Hill
Published: 14 Mar 08 - 20:05

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=129232

[Videomart]

Smithers mine project moving forward
Written by GORDON HOEKSTRA
Citizen staff
Friday, 28 March 2008

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. hopes to get an underground mine near Smithers producing soon,
which will add to its molybdenum supply in northern B.C.
"We've just recently received a completed feasibility study on this project -- we hope to go to our board in the
second quarter in 2008 to present this to them," Thompson Creek chairman and CEO Kevin Loughrey told a Wall Street analyst forum in New York.
He said the Davidson project would cost about $100 million to $110 million, producing four million pounds of molybdenum annually for 10 years.
The idea is to truck the ore from the mine site, just south of Smithers, to the company's Endako mine site, about 190 kilometres away. The Endako mine, west of Prince George, has been producing for four decades.
"Since we're able to (truck the ore to Endako), we are able to bring this material onto the market quite quickly at a time when moly prices are quite high, so we think it's a very good way for us to develop this mine," explained Loughrey.
He said Thompson Creek Metals hopes to develop the Davidson project with the Sojitz Corp., a Japanese company, which holds a 25 per cent interest in the Endako mine.
It would make running the ore through the Endako mine simpler, since both companies would hold the same interest in both projects, he said.
Earlier this month, Thompson Creek announced it has approved its share of a $374-milion upgrade and expansion at its Endako mine.
The company's board approved its $280-million share of the project, which still needs the approval of the Sojitz Corp.
The project will expand the mine's capacity from 28,000 to 50,000 tonnes of ore per day, beginning in 2010 and reduce average construction costs.
The mine, about 175 kilometres west of Prince George, employs about 260 people.
Recently, the mine announced it had reserves to run 27 years, two decades longer than a previous estimate. Expanding the mine's output will reduce the mine's life to about 16 to 17 years.
The estimates were based on increased molybdenum prices.
Molybdenum started a run in prices beginning in the spring of 2004 and peaked in the $40 to $50-per-pound range in mid-2005. Prices are now in the $30 range.
Molybdenum is used in the manufacture of aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motor and filaments because of its ability to withstand extreme temperatures without significantly expanding or softening.
Molybdenum is also used in alloys for its high corrosion resistance and the ease of welding it.
For example, molybdenum is used as an alloying agent each year in stainless steels, tool steels and cast irons.


http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/20080328124824/local/news…

[molyfan]

#160224 von chartex 02.04.08 20:35:46 Beitrag Nr.: 33.793.140


Aus dem Ariva-Board zum Theme langfristiger Molypreis:

------------------
Zitat:
Die Produktionskosten bei Davidson mit 9,46 Dollar sind bei 4 Mio Pfund Molyproduktion ca. 38 Mio Dollar, die jährlich anfallen. Für eine Mine im Vergleich zum Endako oder Thompson Creek (jeweils ca 70 Mio Dollar im Jahr) auf jeden Fall geringer (fast halb so viel. Dafür ist der Molygrad ja auch höher. Das die Kosten nicht geringer sind ist aber bei den heutigen Fixkosten einer Mine klar dem Umstand geschuldet, dass da nicht mehr rauszuholen ist. Zumindest derzeit nicht gewollt. Wenn man 14 Dollar Molypreis 20% abzieht ist man bei 11,20 Dollar. Das wäre dann bei 9,5 Dollar Produktionskosten zwar immer noch ein Gewinn von 1,7 Dollar je Pfund. Aber das reicht bei 40 Mio Pfund Produktion in 10 Jahren nicht um die 109 Mio Pfund Kosten zu stemmen (sind schließlich nur 68 Mio Gewinn).
Das ist aber m. E. auch völlig unrealistisch, dass der Molypreis so weit einbricht, dann werden viele Minen freiwillig ihre Produktion einschränken, um das Angebot zu beschränken.

-----------------

Hallo muppets,

ich sehe das sogar noch ein bischen schärfer - der Molypreis kann längerfristig gar nicht so weit einbrechen, dass Davidson im Verlust landen würde.

Zu den reinen Produktionskosten kommt ja noch ein ganzer Rattenschwanz von weiteren Kosten hinzu (Vertrieb, Abschreibungen, Zinsen, Verwaltung usw.usw.). Bei TCM betragen diese nicht produktionsabhängigen Kosten (umgelegt auf die zu erwartende Produktionsmenge) für 2008 z.B. etwa 4,85 $ je Pfund und für 2009 (bei höherer Produktionsmenge) etwa 3,30 $ je Pfund.

Im Gegensatz zu früher kann der weltweite Molybedarf nicht mehr alleine aus den "Abfällen" der Kupferproduktion gedeckt werden (derzeit wird etwa 1/3 des Molymarktes von reinen Molyminen versorgt). Diese Kupferproduzenten müssen, um halbwegs sortenreines Kupfer zu liefern, den Molyanteil im Erz zwangsläufig abtrennen. Egal ob die Kosten für diese Abtrennung also durch den Moly-Verkaufspreis gedeckt sind oder nicht, der Vorgang an sich ist unverzichtbar. Dies hat in der Vergangenheit dazu geführt, dass selbst bei Preisen deutlich unter 4 $ die Kupferproduzenten das Abfallprodukt Molybdän in den Markt gedrückt haben.

Heute ist die Situation so, dass zum einen zunehmend mehr Kupfer aus Minen kommt, bei welchen das Kupfer nicht mit Molybdän "verschmutzt" ist, also bei diesen Minen erst gar kein Moly mehr anfällt. Eine Versorgung des Marktes alleine durch die Kupferproduzenten ist also nicht mehr vorstellbar.
Zum anderen sind die Molyminen, die "nur" Moly abbauen, natürlich auf einen kostendeckenden Verkauf angewiesen.

Wenn man sich die reinen Produktionskosten der Moly-Minen ansieht, dann wird man schnell feststellen, dass ein gewisser Teil davon zu Preisen im Bereich von 10 $ oder mehr produziert. Bei einem Verkaufspreis von, angenommen, 11,20 $ ist bei diesen Minen also keine kostendeckende Produktion mehr möglich (da ja auch die nicht direkt produktionsabhängigen Kosten irgendwie gedeckt sein müssen). Auf längere Sicht kann dies nur eine Konsequenz haben: Diese Minen können nicht überleben. Und damit wird ganz automatisch das Molyangebot am Markt verknappt, was zu steigenden Preisen führt.

Alleine aus diesen Überlegungen dürfte bei der heutigen Kostenstruktur die längerfristige Untergrenze für den Molypreis im Bereich um 15 $ liegen. Wenn wir, wie es in der Realität üblich ist, von jährlich steigenden Kosten ausgehen, dann wird der durch diesen Umstand bedingte Mindest-Molypreis sogar noch höher anzusetzen sein.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[chris3011]

meine meinung zum (durchschnittlichen) moly preis ist

2008 36$

2009 40$

2010 44$

2011 33$

2012 28$

einer der (haupt)gründe, warum ich in tcm investiert bin + bleibe.

die frage wird sein, gibt es in absehbarer zeit einen futures markt für moly, denn das würde wohl einiges verändern.
hat hier jemand aktuelle news oder infos dazu?
es wurde in london ja mal die aufnahme von moly angedacht oder?

grüsse
chris

[peacemaker45]

Wußte gar nicht, dass es nen neuen thread für TCM gibt.

12,60€ - das ist exakt der Kurs, zu dem ich letztes Jahr ausgestiegen bin. Hat sich also nicht viel weiter bewegt, unsere Moly-Perle....

Vielleicht sollte man wieder einsteigen.

[Videomart]

World Molybdenum Production 2007

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/molybdenum/…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/molybdenum/…

[Videomart]

Die größten Molybdänproduzenten der Welt

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pSvrnHoPCA_n1LxRkQQup…

[Videomart]

Blackmont Capital's aktuelle Meinung zur Molybdänpreisentwicklung:



"Molybdenum:

We continue to believe the price of moly will move up strongly from the current $33/lb level and reach $50/lb.
However our $50/lb average for 2008 is too aggressive. Consequently, we are revising our 2008 forecast to $40/lb.
This level requires an average price of $42.40/lb for the rest of the year.

We continue to be positive on the moly market, especially now as China has implemented an export tax (20% on ferro-moly and 15% on other moly products) and export quota system (approximately 58 mm lb moly for 2008) on the metal.

Antaike, a major metal research group in China, estimates that moly exports from China in 2008 will be approximately 66 mm lb (higher than the quota due to some contracts that were signed before the quota), i.e. 10% lower than 2007. Longer term, we expect the RMB’s appreciation to curtail Chinese expansion.

As China produces approximately 30% of the world’s moly supply, we have increased our longterm moly price, starting in 2012, by $1/lb or 7% to $16/lb."

[Videomart]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.914.246 von Videomart am 18.04.08 01:13:43

Hier noch die Quelle zum Artikel:
http://maximumprofit.wordpress.com/category/moly-artikel/

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek Metals upgraded to "strong buy"
05/09/08 - Versant Partners
NEW YORK, May 9 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Versant Partners upgrade Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc (TC) to "strong buy." The target price has been raised from C$25 to C$31.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has posted its 1Q revenues and EPS broadly in-line with the estimates. Thompson Creek Metals’ production seems to be tracking in-line with the guidance and is expected to continue to ramp-up into 2009, the analysts say.

http://www.newratings.com/en/main/company_headline.m?amp;sec…

[Videomart]

"Why it’s time for investors to get excited about moly"
Daily Buy-Sell Adviser, May 20, 2008

http://www.dailybuyselladviser.com/news/blank/Investors_Dige…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.dailybuyselladviser.com/news/blank/Investors_Dige…

[Videomart]

May 2008

Growth in molybdenum
By: Alisha Hiyate And Jane Werniuk

Thompson Creek Metals of Toronto, Ont., is a young molybdenum miner that is already on solid financial ground and expects to fund its aggressive growth plans from internal cash flow.

In January 2005,Patent Enforcement and Royalties Ltd. ("PEARL") was a patent-financing company attempting to reorganize as a resource company with a taste for moly. By April 2005, the company had changed its name to Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., and acquired 100% interest in the YORKE-HARDY MOLYBDENUM PROPERTY in central British Columbia, since renamed DAVIDSON.

In early 2006,Blue Pearl started to talk with a U. S.-based private company, Thompson Creek Metals, that had 75% interest in the Endako moly mine, concentrator and roaster, 200 km by road to the southeast. The idea would be to ship high grade ore from the Davidson mine to Endako for concentrating. Blue Pearl must have liked what it saw, because it offered to purchase the whole company in September 2006. The US$575-million acquisition gave it not only Endako but also another operating moly mine in Idaho, and a refinery in Pennsylvania.

Blue Pearl funded the acquisition and related transaction costs through a US$204-million public equity offering in September, a US$35-million equity sale to one of the vendors of Thompson Creek, and US$402 in loans. Blue Pearl adopted the name "Thompson Creek Metals" in May 2007.

The new Thompson Creek Metals sold 31 million lb of molybdenum (including its own and third party) at an average realized price of US$28.77/lb in 2007. It posted revenue last year of US$914.4 million and net income of US$157.3 million or US$1.24/share. By the end of 2007 the company had already paid down $165.8 million of its debt.

While the year-end returns were solid, there had been problems at both of Thompson Creek's mines. A rockslide at Endako (owned 25% by Sojitz Corp.) and lower-grade stockpile ore processed at the Thompson Creek mine set back molybdenum production by more than 2 million lb. Those problems now appear to be over.

The company expects demand for molybdenum to grow. Inventories of the metal are low, and China, one of the world's main suppliers of moly, is reducing its exports. With reserve increases at both its operations, the miner expects production to rapidly rise over the next two years, from 16.3 million lb Mo in 2007 to 23-24.5 million lb Mo this year, climbing to more than 34 million lb Mo in 2009.

Endako expansion

A positive feasibility study on a proposed mill expansion at Endako, conducted by Hatch Ltd., was announced in November 2007. The plan sees the operation expanding from its current capacity of 28,000 tonnes (t) of ore per day to 50,000 t/d by 2010. (The $280-million expansion plan was conditionally approved by Thompson Creek in mid-March, and subsequently approved by Sojitz.)

The plan involves joining three pits into one large super-pit. Reserves will be mined out in about 16 years instead of the 26 or 27 currently forecast. The expansion will include a modernization of the mill, which has been in operation since 1965,with the installation of a new grinding circuit consisting of semi-autogenous grinding and ball mills, a new flotation circuit and an upgraded roaster circuit. Production at the open pit mine, mill and roasting facility will increase to about 17 million lb initially, declining to about 16 million lb/y within a couple of years.

Assuming molybdenum prices of US$27/lb in 2009, US$23 in 2010, US$17.50 in 2011 and US$14 thereafter, the investment will yield an internal rate of return (IRR) of more than 20% over the mine's life. The expansion will also lower production costs, from Cdn$10.39/lb (without the investment) to Cdn$7.93/lb.

Plans for Davidson deposit

The company is also developing the Davidson molybdenum underground deposit within Hudson Bay Mountain, 9 km northwest of Smithers, B. C., where a positive feasibility study was announced in early April 2008.

The study considered mining only a limited, high-grade portion of the deposit--7.3 million t of proven and probable mineral reserves grading 0.265% Mo and containing 43 million lb of moly, plus 0.5 million t of sub-grade material. Mining this reserve "would not inhibit the ability of the company to mine the remainder of the mineral resources" at Davidson, according to an April 2 news release. The measured and indicated resources at Davidson, calculated by Giroux Consultants Ltd., contain 288 million lb of moly.

Davidson would provide 2,000 t/d of ore to be shipped to the Endako mill for processing, to produce an additional 40.3 million lb of molybdenum over a 10-year period of full production (4 million lb/y).

A capital expense of Cdn$109 million would include McIntosh Engineering's projection of $65.7 million for underground development and equipment. Underground development would include constructing a 3- km adit at 10% grade for haulage from the base of the mountain upward toward the deposit, and enlarging an existing 2-km adit for air-intake ventilation and secondary access. Excellent ground conditions will allow for selective bulk underground mining methods, with stopes of more than 30-m dimension.

Hatch Ltd.'s estimate of $43.3 million for surface infrastructure would include a water treatment plant, access roads, on-site buildings, and ore-handling facilities at Endako.

Permits are assumed to be issued in November 2008. First production would be in August 2009, with full production beginning in April 2010. The cash costs are predicted at US$9.46/lb Mo; the study assumed a molybdenum price of US$16.13/lb over the life of the project, about half the current price. The pretax IRR is 20% and the payback period 3.4 years from the start of full production.




http://www.canadianminingjournal.com/issues/ISarticle.asp?id…

(thx allesaufblau!)

[Videomart]

"How to Hedge Molybdenum 21st Century Style"

By Jack Lifton
26 Jun 2008 at 04:04 PM GMT-04:00

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43947

[Videomart]

"Molybdenum Is Mighty Tough"
by: Hard Assets Investor, posted on: June 27, 2008

http://seekingalpha.com/article/82961-molybdenum-is-mighty-t…

[Videomart]

The metal that has no equals
2008-08-01 22:45:00

Most metals used in industry can be replaced with another metal in case of supply shortages. For example, car manufacturers are replacing steel with aluminium when steel prices are going through the roof. But Molybdenum is a refractory metallic element used principally as an alloying agent in steel, cast iron and super alloys to enhance hardenability, strength, toughness and wear and corrosion resistance.

There is little substitution for molybdenum in its major application as an alloying element in steels and cast irons. In fact, because of the availability and versatility of molybdenum, industry has sought to develop new materials that benefit from the alloying properties of the metal. Potential substitutes for molybdenum include chromium, vanadium, niobium (columbium), and boron in alloy steels; tungsten in tool steels; graphite, tungsten, and tantalum for refractory materials in high-temperature electric furnaces; and chrome-orange, cadmium-red, and organic-orange pigments for molybdenum orange.

World Resources
Identified resources amount to about 5.4 million tons of molybdenum in the United States and about 13 million tons in the rest of the world. Molybdenum occurs as the principal metal sulfide in large low-grade porphyry molybdenum deposits and as an associated metal sulfide in low-grade porphyry copper deposits. Resources of molybdenum are adequate to supply world needs for the foreseeable future.

The world's largest producers of molybdenum materials are the United States, Canada, Chile, Russia, and China. porphyry copper deposits such as the Chuquicamata mine in northern Chile produce molybdenum as a byproduct of copper mining. The Knaben mine in southern Norway was Though molybdenum is found in such minerals as wulfenite (PbMoO4) and powellite (CaMoO4), the main commercial source of molybdenum is molybdenite (MoS2).

Molybdenum is mined as a principal ore, and is also recovered as a byproduct of copper and tungsten mining. Large mines in Colorado (Climax) and in British Columbia yield molybdenite, while many opened in 1885, making it the first molybdenum mine. It remained open until 1973. Molybdenum is the 42nd-most-abundant element in the universe, and the 25th-most-abundant element in Earth's oceans, with an average of 10.8 mt/km³.

The Russian Luna 24 mission discovered a single molybdenum-bearing grain (1 × 0.6 µm) in a pyroxene fragment taken from Mare Crisium on the Moon. A side product of molybdenum mining is rhenium. As it is always present in small varying quantities in molybdenite, the only commercial source for rhenium is molybdenum mines.

The ability of molybdenum to withstand extreme temperatures without significantly expanding or softening makes it useful in applications that involve intense heat, including the manufacture of aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motors, and filaments. Molybdenum is also used in alloys for its high corrosion resistance and weldability.

Most high-strength steel alloys are .25% to 8% molybdenum. Despite being used in such small portions, more than 43 million kg of molybdenum is used as an alloying agent each year in stainless steels, tool steels, cast irons, and high-temperature superalloys. Because of its lower density and more stable price, molybdenum is implemented in the place of tungsten.

Recycling:
Molybdenum in the form of molybdenum metal or superalloys was recovered, but the amount was small. Although molybdenum is not recovered from scrap steel, recycling of steel alloys is significant, and some molybdenum content is reutilized. The amount of molybdenum recycled as part of new and old steel and other scrap may be as much as 30% of the apparent supply of molybdenum.

Molybdenum can be implemented both as an alloying agent and as a flame-resistant coating for other metals. Although its melting point is 2623 °C, molybdenum rapidly oxidizes at temperatures above 760 °C, making it better-suited for use in vacuum environment. Although current molybdenum production meets demand, refiners, or roasters, are expected to run into a shortfall between 2009 and 2015, depending on demand.

A roaster processes the moly into a fine powder, pellets, or other forms. Total world moly roaster capacity is currently 320 million pounds per year, barely enough to meet demand. There is not much excess roasting capacity, and no one is actively permitting for the production of any new roasters in the United States. Global roaster capacity also looks limited, and a future roaster shortage is predicted. The data above are based on the assumption that mines will be able to increase output.

Western demand is projected to increase by around 3 percent annually, while China and the CIS demand is projected to increase by around 10 percent annually, increasing overall global demand by around 4.5 percent annually. Increasing demand can be attributed to two main factors. Hydroprocessing catalysts are becoming essential for crude oil.

The other contributing factor is the increase in nuclear reactor construction. There are 48 nuclear reactors to be built by 2013, and approximately 100 are to be built by 2020. The International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) says that an average reactor contains about 520,000 feet of stainless steel alloy. Some larger reactors contain over 1 million feet of stainless steel alloy. Unless moly mine production picks up at a rapid pace, shortfalls of the metal are expected to arrive around 2009.


http://www.commodityonline.com/news/This-metal-that-has-no-e…

(Thx Dotchy!)

[Videomart]

Molybdenum Market Update:

Nanika's consultant on the molybdenum market, Denis Battrum, MBA, M.Sc., B. Sc., advises that the market for molybdenum can be fairly described as strong and getting stronger -- financial results from the United States notwithstanding. Molybdenum demand is 75-80 percent related to steel ---- which is growing 5.6 to 5.8 percent a year, based on the most recent statistics from the International Iron and Steel Institute. Molybdenum is also supported by the catalyst business, which is growing much faster than oil refining generally because of its capability to reduce sulfur when used in catalysts. Catalyst producers put the demand for molybdenum in their business as growing 8-11 percent annually.
The molybdenum market can be said to be growing in a range between 5.6% and 11%. The spot price is rising at $35.40 US/lb at July 15, 2008 up from $35.25 US/lb. as at July 11, 2008 as quoted by Ryan's Notes. It is reported that traders cannot find spot material for new incremental demand because producers are largely sold out. Denis Battrum advises further that there remains a supply question in South America due to structural labour problems


http://www.newcantech.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=312736…

[Videomart]

Molybdenum- The Next Wave to Ride?
Wed, Jul 30, 2008


Many investors are giving molybdenum the title “The New Uranium”, which is a hint at the profit potential that a savvy investor can make on the moly market. If you look at moly’s past- it is known to hit high highs and low lows, at the drop of a hat. In fact, the past 15 years have seen moly prices oscillate from $1.82 per lb to $40.00 per lb.

Moly’s primary use is as an alloy, and it has a significant niche in this venue due to its tolerance for high heat, high stress situations. Corrosion resistant stainless steels contain 6 to 7.3 percent molybdenum. These grades are used for power plant condensers, offshore piping, critical components in nuclear power plants, and construction near corrosive sea side environments. Two well known architectural features, the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur and London’s Canary Warf are constructed with moly reinforced steels. Moly is also used in chemical applications. Its use as a catalyst has come to the forefront recently, as tightening governmental regulations have required oil manufactures to remove more sulphur from crude. This is a feat that can only be accomplished with a moly catalyst. Another key use for moly in the energy sector is, as oil companies need to drill increasingly deep to tap into a reserve- they turn to higher grade molybdenum stainless steels (with 13 - 16 percent moly content) to manage the unfavorable elements at those depths. With this in mind, it is possible that moly provides another venue through which to profit off of diminishing oil reserves. For all of moly’s uses, there is no known replacement.

Moly is relatively new on the primary production scene. The main commercial source of moly is molybdenite that historically has been mined as a by product of copper. This is a likely reason why in the past moly prices changed so swiftly. A mine that produced moly as a secondary product could easily turn on or off the moly tap- depending on the current demand. However, now that the word is on the street that the demands will skyrocket- more primary producing companies are coming to the foreground. In the future, Moly should be guided by the economics of primary production.

Analysts have indicated that from 2008 to 2010 there will be a moly supply deficit. With that thought in mind, now would be a good time to jump on board moly stocks. Moly prices have increased steadily since 2001 when the price was under $5 per lb. Currently, prices are sitting at around $34 per lb, with many analysts saying that prices near $50 are justified with the current supply and demand picture. Global mining giant Rio Tinto believes the word on the street when it comes to moly; in fact they recently announced that they plan on sacrificing some of the copper production at their Kennecott mine in Utah, to step up moly production.

The world’s largest producers of molybdenum materials are the United States, Canada, Chile, Russia, and China. Large mines in Colorado and British Columbia yield molybdenite, while many copper deposits such as the Chuquicamata mine in northern Chile produce molybdenum as a byproduct of copper mining. A side product of molybdenum mining is rhenium. Molybednite mines are the only commercial source for rhenium.

The historical prices of moly are known to change quickly, and the same pattern has been witnessed in junior companies making their dollars by mining molybdenite. A classic example of this is moly junior Blue Pearl Mining. On February 6, 2006, their shares did something very radical. In the first hour of trading, four million shares changed hands. The result was an instantaneous 74.8 percent increase in share value. All this was the result of a press release indicating positive results in one drill hole. Moly companies have seen their moly profits skyrocketing. In 2007 China Molybdenum Co saw their profits increase by 47.9 percent. Many new companies have joined the moly race to capitalize on high prices. An example of some companies trading on the TSX venture exchange today are Galway resources (TSX.V: GWY), and Prophecy Resource Corporation (TSX.V: ETF). There are many more companies to keep an eye on, especially with a booming moly market!



http://www.molyinvestingnews.com/60-molybdenum-the-next-wave…

[Videomart]

Molybdenum Continues to Shine
Tue, Aug 5, 2008
By Leia Michele Toovey - Exclusive to Moly Investing News

Commodities have been having a rough ride lately, but Molybdenum’s performance, although not stellar, has not been as bad as many of the other metals. People have been whispering that moly’s current supply/demand picture makes it one of the best metals to invest in. This is probably not much of a secret anymore, as last week on CNBC Jim Cramer recommended moly stocks on his Mad Money lightning round. His reason for the recommendation? The fact that moly is in short supply, and the stock is currently trading low as current economic conditions have prompted a sell off of all commodities.

Moly demand has stayed steady, with a strong future outlook. The supply picture has been decreasing. Just this past week Chile announced that their output of molybdenum fell 27.6 percent in June, 21.6 percent in the first half of the year. Chile is the global leader in copper production, and mines moly in concert with copper, as the metals are found together. Despite moly’s decrease, copper production was up.

Moly Market Movers and Shakers

Quaterra resources (TSX: CTA) has finalized a mining license with the state of Texas general land office. The mining license includes three breccia pipes in the cave peak molybdenum prospect. One of these pipes was drilled in the 1960’s by Union Carbide, confirming significant mineralization. Based on a preliminary review of all available data, the cave peak molybdenum prospect has excellent geological potential to contain an economic molybdenum deposit. Quaterra has acquired rights to the property through a lease option agreement with the holders of two prospecting permits. The agreement allows Quaterra to purchase the entire interest by making staged payments totaling $600,000 over a five year period. For the remainder of 2008, Quaterra will take advantage of improvements in the understanding of moly systems that have occurred since Union Carbide perfomed studies in 1960, and undertake a work program involving mapping, sampling, relogging the available drill core, and preparing for an exploration plan. Drilling is tentatively scheduled for Q1 2009.

Velocity Minerals (TSX: VLC) has commenced drilling operations in its Mt. Haskin property in Northern British Columbia. Drilling will be combined with Geochemical Analysis and Geophysical surveys to confirm historical results and hopefully find areas where the project can be expanded. In the 1960’s, Della Mines Ltd, drilled over 29,000 ft in the area and came up with an estimated 13.5 million tonnes of 0.157% molybdenite (Non NI 43 101 compliant).

Linear Metals Corporation’s (TSX: LRM) drill core results continue to confirm the continuity of molybdenum mineralization over significant widths at their KM61 discovery. Combined molybdenum mineralized zones now extend 1600m, are up to 350 m wide, and host greater than 0.04% mineralization. These results are from 57 drill holes, with another 18 drill holes nearing completion.

Executive Changes

There have been some executive shuffles over the past weeks at Moly producers. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc, one of the world’s largest publicly traded pure molybdenum producers announced that Pamela L. Saxton will join the organization as Consulting Financial Executive effective August 4, 2008 and will become Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Finance later this year. The appointment is in conjunction with the move of the Company’s 10-person finance department from Vancouver, British Columbia to the Company’s principal executive office in Denver, Colorado. The current finance employees, including Derek Price, the Company’s Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, have chosen not to relocate to Denver and have agreed to remain with the Company and work closely with Ms. Saxton through the transition. Prior to joining Franco-Nevada in 2007, Ms. Saxton was the Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Colorado-based NewWest Gold Corporation.

Mr. Paul F. Nelson, C.A., has been appointed to the position of President and CEO of Adanac Molybdenum Corporation. Mr. Nelson, has been a director of the Company since 2006, and is moving into this position to replace Dr. David Stone who is leaving to pursue other interests. In addition, Mr. Peter R. Jones, P.Eng is joining as a consultant to the company, whereas Mr. Dan Koyich is rejoining the board of directors.



http://www.molyinvestingnews.com/99-molybdenum-continues-to-…

(Thx schlorpf!)

[Videomart]

Balsam für die geschundenen AUA-Seelen...

[Videomart]

July 27, 2008

Chinese second export quota for rare metals

The Central Government of China has recently announced the second export quota for such rare metals as molybdenum, tungsten and so on to be shipped from China.

According to this announcement, the quantities of rare metals allocated for exports as the second time are 10,161 tonnes on material base of molybdenum for metallurgical use specified for 19 companies and 5,126 tonnes on W content base of tungsten and its relative products.

The second export quota includes 1,360 tonnes on material base of molybdenum for chemical use compared with 3,179 tonnes for the first export quota specified for 10 companies and 1,303 tonnes on material base of molybdenum products compared to 3,039 tonnes for the first export quota specified for 15 companies.

The first export quota for shipments in 2008 was announced on the 27th December of 2007 with 23,711 tonnes on material base of molybdenum for metallurgical use and 13,666 tonnes on W content base of tungsten and its relative products. Consequently, the total quantities allocated for exports in the calendar year of 2008 as announced in the first and second times come to 33,872 tonnes on material base of molybdenum for metallurgical use and 18,792 tonnes on W content base of tungsten and its relative products.

The quantities on material base of molybdenum exported from China in the calendar year of 2007 were,
1. Ferromolybdenum 21,133 tonnes
2. Molybdenum oxide 24,834 tonnes
3. Total 45,967 tonnes.

In view of the actual quantity of molybdenum exported from China in the calendar year of 2007, the export quota of molybdenum allocated for the second half of 2007 was inefficient.

The total quantity of molybdenum allocated for exports from China in 2008 as announced in the first and second times comes to 33,872 tonnes on material base, which is a considerable decrease of 26.3% compared with that exported by China in the preceding year of 2007.


http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/07/27/NTYzMTA%3D/Chines…

[Videomart]

China Molybdenum Says Shortage to Support Prices

By Helen Yuan

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China Molybdenum Co., the nation's second-biggest producer of the metal used in steelmaking, expects a global shortage of 2,000 metric tons this year will prevent prices from falling.

Production may decline in Chile and China, ensuring that a deficit will last for ``quite a while,'' General Manager Wu Wenjun said today at a conference in Hong Kong. Wu in April forecast a deficit will last until 2010.

The estimated shortage, about 2 percent of global output in the first half, may bolster molybdenum prices that have already jumped fivefold in the past five years as demand for oil steel pipes surges. China may raise demand of the metal by 24 percent this year, larger rival Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co. said in June.

``The domestic market will maintain rapid growth in the second half,'' Wu said.

Molybdenum prices have gained 4.7 percent this year to $33.75 a pound, according to Metal Bulletin.

Shares of China Molybdenum gained 5.7 percent, the biggest increase since July 9, to close at HK$5.05 in Hong Kong. China Molybdenum's shares have fallen 65 percent this year, compared with a 23 percent decline in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

The Luoyang-based company this week posted a 13 percent gain in first-half profit.

Domestic Sales

China Molybdenum plans to raise domestic sales as export tariffs reduce earnings from overseas, Wu said. Chinese stainless steelmakers may add production in the second half, he said. China Molybdenum also will increase sales to the heavy machine and military industries.

China's stainless-steel producers, led by Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co. and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., only produced 2.51 million tons of the rust-proof alloy in the first half, compared with 6.67 million tons for the whole of 2007.

China Molybdenum gets 77 percent of its domestic sales from Taigang, Baoshan, Zhangjiagang Posco Co. and Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., Wu said.

The company's production of molybdenum concentrate rose 17 percent to 16,753.7 tons in the first half from a year ago, and molybdenum oxides gained 28 percent to 13,021.8 tons, the company said in its interim report on Aug. 24.

It plans to make 17,000 tons of the concentrates and 12,000 tons of molybdenum oxides in the second half, Wu said.

Acquistions

China Molybdenum is also seeking acquisitions of rare and precious metal resources in territories including Inner Mongolia, Canada and Australia, Wu said, without giving details. The company also plans to increase tungsten production, he said.

China's apparent consumption for molybdenum surged 72 percent in the first half of this year to 11,807 tons from a year earlier, the company said Aug. 24.

Apparent demand is calculated from output and net imports and excludes inventories held.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aFO4eTQ6…

[Videomart]

"Molybdenum price rise to sustain for at least two years"

According to commodities research firm CPM Group, supply deficits of molybdenum are expected to be larger over the next two years, followed by slightly larger surpluses from 2011 through 2014.

The 2008 molybdenum prices increasing tendency will sustain for at least 2 years. The upward trend in the expected prices for molybdenum is partially supported by gradually rising capital expenditures, the sharp increase in diesel prices, higher electricity prices in China, and loftier freight charges.

CPM said that these higher production cost factors with robust demand, narrow inventory levels, and expectations that molybdenum supplies will not exceed demand on a sustained basis are expected to boost the floor prices of molybdenum.

CPM noted that prices are expected to decline in 2011 as the market transitions back into a surplus. It added that moly demand has increased at a robust rate over the past five years, and they reported that demand is not only growing in the traditional end uses of molybdenum, but in never industries that are seeking to utilize molybdenum's significant alloying properties

Monday, July 14, 2008
Non-Ferrous metals
Источник: S T E E L G U R U


http://rusmet.com/news.php?id=14153

[Videomart]

London Metal Exchange expands into minor metals
Thu Sep 4, 2008 12:48pm EDT

By Julie Crust and Karen Norton

LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Thursday it would launch two minor metal futures contracts, molybdenum and cobalt, in the second half of 2009.

"The announcement heralds another new area in which the Exchange can provide transparent pricing and risk management to market participants," LME Chief Executive Martin Abbott said.

"Minor metals have been discussed by the exchange for some time, and fit with our core products as they are extracted with them," he said in a statement.

"The volatility in these markets in recent times has highlighted the need for an exchange traded product, which the LME is best placed to provide."

The two minor metals are by-products of copper and nickel production, non-ferrous metals already traded on the exchange, which is home to the last open outcry trading floor in London.

In June, Rio Tinto Plc (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said it would invest $270 million to build a molybdenum facility at its Kennecott Utah copper Bingham Canyon operation to take advantage of strong demand for the metal. [ID:nWNAS7908]

A spokesman for Rio Tinto welcomed the LME's move.

"Anything that makes the market more transparent and easier to understand is going to be welcome," he said.

About 75 percent of global annual molybdenum output goes into the production of stainless steel, where demand has been driven by emerging market countries, such as China, as they invest in infrastructure.

One trader said the introduction of the new contracts could lead to more erratic trading.

"If anything, it will create a more volatile market and in the short term lead to higher prices," said a trader from a major London trading house.

"A big percentage of the market would be in the hands of the hedge funds, I can't see how consumers would benefit," he added, referring to cobalt.

Cobalt is used mainly in aircraft parts and batteries.

The LME trades non-ferrous metals, including its flagship copper contract, steel and plastics through open outcry, an inter-office telephone market and its own electronic trading platform Select.

It said the new minor metal contracts would offer all the benefits of an exchange traded product, allowing participants access to a transparently derived price and the ability to manage price risk.

Earlier this year, the 131-year-old exchange launched two steel billet futures contracts to take advantage of a market that has grown about 40 percent since 2000.

(Editing by Christopher Johnson)


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL493526200809…

[Videomart]

06.09.2008 - 10:00
Top Pick: Seltene Metalle bieten riesige Chance

„Im Schatten der Edel- und Industriemetalle gibt es noch weitere spannende Metalle, die von der breiten Öffentlichkeit kaum wahrgenommen werden“, sagt Larry Edelson, Herausgeber des US-Börsenbriefs „Real Wealth“. Ganz aktuell empfiehlt er zwei Werte: Titanium Metals Corp. (ISIN: US8883392073) für Titan und Thompson Creek Metals (ISIN: CA8847681027) für Molybdän.
„Bis auf wenige Ausnahmen haben die seltenen Metalle für sich genommen keinen Nutzen. Der ergibt sich erst aus der Mischung mit anderen eher verbreiteten Metallen. So entstehen durch die Beimischung von seltenen Metallen neue Super-Legierungen, die aus unserer hoch technisierten Welt nicht mehr wegzudenken sind. Nur ein kurzes Beispiel aus der Luftfahrt: Um Kerosin zu sparen, sollen die eingesetzten Turbinen in Zukunft eine höhere Drehzahl erreichen. Dies geht nur mit neuen Super-Legierungen. Seltene Metalle sind aber auch in unseren Mobiltelefonen, Flachbildfernsehern, Computern und anderen technischen Geräten vorhanden.
Für diese Metalle gibt es keine standardisierten Weltmärkte. Hier wird der Preis noch direkt zwischen Anbieter und Großhändlern bzw. Nutzern verhandelt. Daher sind die Preise sehr volatil und so kam es in den vergangenen Jahren zu Preissprüngen von 300% bis zu 500%.
Als Einstieg in diesen Sektor bieten sich die größten Produzenten an. Bei Titan ist z.B. Titanium Metals der größte Anbieter weltweit. Die Gewinne sind aktuell auf dem Rückzug – kein Wunder bei dem Zustand der US-Konjunktur. Gleichzeitig notiert aber die Aktie auch auf einem 2-Jahres-Tief bei rund 11 Dollar. Für uns ist das ein attraktives Niveau für einen langfristigen Wachstumswert. Thompson Creek Metals ist der größte börsennotierte Molybdän-Produzent der Welt. Auch diese Aktie hat vom Hoch im November 2007 mehr als die Hälfte an Wert verloren. Auch hier lohnt aktuell der Einstieg.“


http://www.boerse-go.de/news/news.php?ida=972373&idc=2

(Thx Bulko!)

[Videomart]

Nachfolgend zwei interessante Artikel , recherchiert von Dotchy:


China molybdenum feast not over yet
-expert
Reuters, Friday September 12 2008 By Pav Jordan

VINA DEL MAR, Chile, Sept 12 (Reuters) - China's ravenous consumption of industrial metals in the lead-up to the Beijing Olympics may have seen demand growth peak in some metals, but the show is not over yet for molybdenum, an industry expert told Reuters this week.
Molybdenum, the metal used to add strength and shine to specialty steels, is one of the few industrial metals that has resisted a general commodities price retreat in recent months, and demand for specialty steels in China will support prices through 2010 at least.
Hardy Mohrbacher, a metallurgical engineer, steel expert and consultant to the global steel business, said on the sidelines of an annual gathering of the global molybdenum industry in Vina del Mar that China is virtually locked-in to a host of giant projects that will need steels with molybdenum content.
"There's no way around it," said Mohrbacher, who holds a professorship at Peking University in Beijing. "What is driving China are these big infrastructure projects, and they have to be done in order to keep general industrialization of China sustainable. These large scale projects need high quality steels."
According to an article on the website of the International Iron and Steel Institute (www.worldsteel.org), at least 3 million tonnes of steel was used to build the stadiums, Olympic village and public transport projects in Beijing in the lead up to the games.
The Bird's Nest Stadium - made famous in likely the most stunning Olympic opening ceremonies yet - is made of 45,000 tonnes of steel plate.
"The Olympics are just one example, but there are a lot of projects still coming up," said Mohrbacher, pointing at major, continued demand in China for more value-added steels.
"Strength demand of construction steel is further increasing... Corrosion resistance and buckling strength are demanded in the oil and gas industry," he said.
Mohrbacher estimates China steel demand at between 540 million and 580 million tonnes in 2010, with more and more of that demanding molybdenum to give it attributes of strength, hardenability, weldability, toughness, elevated temperature strength, and corrosion resistance.
The oil and gas industry alone will lay 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) of submarine pipeline by 2010. After 2010, China is seen extending its railway by 17,000 kilometers.
THE MILITARY QUESTION
"I don't think that you can stop that that easily anymore," said Mohrbacher. "This just has to happen. There is so much momentum in this development that it just will go on."
He said molybdenum consumption could rise from about 14,298 tonnes in 2007 to at least 16,307 tonnes in 2010, according to conservative estimates. On the outside, he saw China's moly consumption at 22,266 tonnes annually in two years' time.
China has since the middle of the last century set out its development plans in five-year slots, making it easier to quantify official projects like the building of major pipelines or throughways.
China is currently in its 11th five-year development plan, which ends in 2010.
But due to the massive state apparatus, the big question mark for much of China's metals consumption has been military defense spending, where potential molybdenum demand is huge.
"The major unknown is what goes into defense and defense-related projects as the Chinese build a fleet, submarines and so on," he said. (Reporting by Pav Jordan; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7793484




September 14, 2008

Molybdenum price in upward trend – Codelco

According to Mr Victor Perez marketing director of Codelco, booming demand for molybdenum, used to produce stainless and other specialty steels, means prices for the minor metal are unlikely to return to the historic lows seen in the previous two decades.

Mr Perez said that "Molybdenum is at an extraordinarily high price, but I don't think molybdenum is going to return to the historical levels that we saw in the 1980s and 1990s of less than USDS 5 per pound."

He said that a huge backlog in infrastructure projects in emerging economies, most notably in China and, increasingly, in India, meant demand for steel will remain firm over the next decade or more. He added that "I see there is a lot of demand, which will be the main driver of maintaining an attractive price for the primary and secondary molybdenum industry, the new equilibrium price for molybdenum is going to be between USD 15 per pound and USD 25 per pound for a period of time."

Meanwhile, Codelco’s board of directors is due to approve in October or November 2008 a new 20,000 million tonnes per year processing plant at Mejillones port in northern Chile at a cost of USD 120 to USD 150 million. It is also investing in existing installations at its Andina, El Teniente and Codelco Norte divisions to improve molybdenum recovery by three or four points.

Finally, Codelco is holding an international tender to select a partner for a new JV that will use cutting edge technology to process the immense quantity of copper slags at its divisions.

http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/09/12/NjI4Mjg%3D/Molybd…

[auris]

Gibt's jetzt einen (anhaltenden) Schub nach Norden?
Wäre nicht schlecht... welches Kursziel seht Ihr bis Jahresende??

[Videomart]

ANNOUNCEMENTS
LME to list molybdenum oxide from July 2009 - 18 Oct, 2008

It is reported that London Metal Exchange has decided to list molybdenum oxide and is scheduled to be actually listed it from July 2009 as a trial case. Substantial dealings of molybdenum oxide at LME will commence from October 2009.

The item to be listed on LME is molybdenum oxide, containing 59.5% of Mo with allowance of 2.5% of up-and-down and 0.5% of Cu, and the unit to deal is 2 tonnes. The terms for dealing are for cash on delivery, for three month futures and for fifteen month futures.

In order to trade molybdenum, dealer oxide price published on Thursday of every week in a metal magazine of the USA has been far so referred in many cases. The contracts concluded between producers and traders and consumers have stipulated for dealer oxide price to be referred to fix molybdenum price. In view of the fact, which there is no measure to ensure a transparency like LME dealings, dealer oxide price has been so far evaluated as a fairness and has fully exhibited its function.

Such major molybdenum producers as Codelco, Freeport McMoRan, and so on are positively intending to acknowledge its meaning. Major producers have already well experienced deeply in dealing of copper cathode at LME and, accordingly, do not have a sense of incompatibility. LME started its operating from 1881 and has had a long history of dealings in futures for nearly 130 years. Therefore, LME has formed a center of metal trading in the world for its efficiency. On the occasion to list molybdenum oxide on LME, molybdenum trading has a large possibility to have more high transparency.

However, the world demand for molybdenum is a small scale of 180,000 tonnes per annum, corresponding 1,380,000 tonnes per year to be demanded for nickel. So far as the demand scales of commodities listed on LME are smaller, these LME commodities become objective materials for speculators and its prices more incline to be artificially moved.

However, there is a view in the market that, when molybdenum oxide starts to be traded at LME from October of 2009, an aspect will completely change. LME indicates to move molybdenum price on a momentary pace but, on the other hand, dealer oxide price is reported on unit of one week as so far seen. It is questioned how to cope with a speedy change of market prices in both sides of supply and demand. Also, there is a big probability to be forced to choose between the two of dealer oxide price and LME price as the condition to be stipulated for fixing molybdenum price.


http://steelprices-middleeast.com/news/index/2008/10/18/Mzg1…

[Videomart]

Widespread commodity forecast cut, but healthy rebound expected post-recession
Posted: October 17, 2008, 8:07 AM by Jonathan Ratner

Slowing growth in China and a recession in the developed world means metal markets are much more likely to move into significant surpluses in 2009 and 2010. As a result, RBC Capital Markets has made widespread cuts to its commodity price forecasts – everything from iron ore and coal to uranium and copper.

“A dramatic rebound in growth in China based on continuing urbanization and infrastructure building could pull commodities out of this downturn more quickly and dramatically than in previous cycles,” the firm’s analysts said in a report. However, they believe commodity prices will remain under pressure during the next 12 months.

While the huge sell-off, attractive valuations and seasonal affects could support a rally in mining stocks before the end of 2008, RBC does not think one can be sustained until global economic conditions improve. As a result, it continues to like bulk commodities like coal, iron ore and uranium over the metals.

It also sees an opportunity emerging in molybdenum given that current conditions could produce project delays that could keep the market tight despite weakening demand.

RBC is forecasting a rebound in demand in 2010 based on the average recovery following the past six recessions since 1960. For example, while aluminium prices declined 5.1% annually on average during a recession, it rebounded 6.8% in the following year. Copper saw a decline of 3.0% and a gain of 7.3%, respectively. Nickel also dipped 3.0% but then rose 9.4%, while zinc fell 4.9% and then saw a subsequent 5.2% recovery.

While spot iron ore prices have plunged recently, RBC expects steel activity in China to remain subdued into the middle of 2009. As a result, it sees contract prices falling 10% next year.

For uranium, the global economic crisis likely lead to the selling of much of the material held by speculators like hedge funds, bringing spot prices down even further. RBC analysts believe the current price is too low to encourage sufficient new mine development and has cut speculative potential supply from its forecast. This has produced forecasts for balanced markets from 2009 to 2011, followed by two years of surplus. Strong deficits are expected a few years after that.


Jonathan Ratner


http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive…

[Videomart]

21.10.2008 9:11

TopStory Rohstoffe:
Molybdän dürfte sich besser als andere Metalle behaupten

Molybdän dürfte sich nach Ansicht von Analysten 2009 besser als andere Basismetalle behaupten. Das Angebot dieses u.a. in Baustahl und Ölpipelines verwendeten Produkts bleibe knapp, und die Nachfrage nehme trotz der Kreditkrise weiterhin zu, heißt es. Zwar werden auch Risiken nach unten gesehen, da der Stahl- und Ölbedarf im Zuge einer Abschwächung der Wirtschaft zurückgehen dürfte. Die Nachfrage werde aber ungeachtet dessen weiterhin das Angebot übersteigen. Von den jährlich produzierten 400 Mio lbs des Nebenmetalls wird der größte Teil verbraucht. Nach Feststellung von Bergbauanalyst Stefan Ioannou (Haywood Securities) wächst dieser Konsum jährlich um 5% bis 7%. Bei den derzeitigen Turbulenzen könnte dieser Zuwachs eher am unter Ende der Spanne bleiben oder sogar auf 4% sinken. Auf jeden Fall dürfte die Entwicklung aber im Positivbereich bleiben, wie Ioannou meint.

Unterdessen dürfte es für einige Minenbetreiber schwerer werden, geplante Vorhaben finanziert zu bekommen, wodurch sich manche Projekte verzögern könnten. Auch Bart Melek von BMO Capital Markets nimmt an, dass die Finanzkrise das Angebotswachstum im gesamten Metallspektrum einschließlich Molybdän begrenzen wird, da die Produzenten schwerer an Betriebskapital herankommen. Es sei unklar, woher das längerfristige Molybdänangebot kommen wird, obwohl sich der Preis immer noch deutlich über der Rentabilitätsschwelle der Minen bewege. Molybdän fällt häufig als Nebenprodukt des Kupferbergbaus an. Da die Preise während der vergangenen drei bis vier Jahre gestiegen sind, haben diese Produzenten “alle tief hängenden Früchte geerntet”, wie es Ioannou ausdrückt. Um die Produktion fortsetzen zu können, müssten sie nun in tiefere Erzschichten vordringen, was die Angebotsaussichten ebenfalls dämpft.

Unter Preisdruck könnte Molybdän geraten, wenn die Chinesen weniger Metall verbrauchen und die Handelshäuser und Verarbeiter ihre Vorräte aufbrauchen, um in der Kreditkrise ihre Barmittel zusammenzuhalten. Catherine Virga von CPM Group verweist aber darauf, dass dieser Lagerabbau zu einer Zeit bereits niedriger Bestände erfolgt, und der Markt wird ihrer Überzeugung nach weiterhin im Defizit bleiben. Gegenüber anderen Industriemetallen werde Molybdän sich stärker im Preis behaupten. Und Phil Newman von CRY Strategies sieht das Nebenmetall 2009 sogar als “potenziellen Star” der Investoren.

financial.de 21.10.2008


http://www.financial.de/news/top-stories/2008/10/21/topstory…

(Thx Andy!)

[Videomart]

17 Oct 2008 16:19 GMT
DJ FOCUS: Molybdenum May Hold Value Amid Base Metals Slump

By Matt Whittaker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)-Molybdenum, a component in structural steel and oil
pipelines, may hold its value more solidly in 2009 than other base metals
because of tight supplies and continuing demand growth despite the credit
crunch.

Although there is downside risk for the so-called minor metal as steel and
oil demand decline with dimming economic-growth forecasts, demand nevertheless
is forecast to continue outpacing supply.

Most of the 400 million pounds produced each year is consumed, and
consumption has been increasing from 5% to 7% a year, said Stefan Ioannou,
mining analyst with Haywood Securities. With the current market turmoil,
consumption growth may remain at the lower end of that range or fall to 4%, but
is still expected to remain in positive territory.

Meanwhile, some miners may have a harder time financing planned mining
projects because of the credit crisis, delaying the projects coming online,
Ioannou said.

It isn't clear where longer-term molybdenum supply will come from, even
though the price is still significantly above the marginal cost of production
for miners, said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Capital
Markets.

"This financial crisis will lead to less supply growth" across the base-metal
spectrum, including for molybdenum, because it is becoming more difficult for
producers to get working capital, Melek said.

Molybdenum is often produced as a byproduct of copper mining, and as prices
have risen over the last three or four years, these producers have "picked all
the low-hanging fruit," Ioannou said. To continue producing the metal, they
will have to mine lower ore grades, further denting the supply outlook.


A "Potential Star," With Risks

There isn't much room for supply growth because byproduct producers have
already ramped up production in reaction to earlier price rises, said Catherine
Virga, base-metals analyst with CPM Group.

Molybdenum could see price pressure because the Chinese are expected to
consume less of the metal and trading houses and fabricators are clearing out
inventories to hold cash amid the credit crunch, Virga said.

But that inventory destocking comes when inventories are already low, and the
market is likely to remain in a deficit, Virga said.

"I do think that they (molybdenum prices) could hold their value more so than
other industrial metals."

Molybdenum is a "potential star" for investors in 2009, Phil Newman, chief
operating officer with metals and mining consultancy CRU Strategies, said at a
presentation during the annual London Metal Exchange week. Newman also cited
molybdenum in a list the consultancy sees performing well for investors over
the next two to five years.

Newman cautioned that molybdenum prices could decline or rise, but that it
was included as a top pick because the consultancy sees the metal maintaining
its value overall.

In the molybdenum industry, consumers and producers reach over-the-counter
volume agreements in negotiations during October, November and December each
year, said Wayne Cheveldayoff, director of investor relations with Denver-based
molybdenum producer Thompson Creek Metals Co. (TC).

While there is a spot market for the metal, there is currently no
exchange-traded forward market.

But the London Metal Exchange plans to launch molybdenum futures contracts in
the second half of 2009, a move the exchange says will help producers,
suppliers, consumers and other investors lock in their profits or costs in
volatile markets.

Opponents of molybdenum futures say the contracts will open the metal up to
speculative interest that will increase volatility, but supporters of the idea
say the move will offer more price transparency.

Liquidity in the LME futures contracts will first have to come from industry
participants interested in risk management, said Chris Evans, new products
manager with the LME.

Molybdenum prices are already volatile, but the new contracts will offer a
way to manage that risk, Evans said.

"The notion that non-exchange-traded (products) are less volatile than
exchange-traded (products) is incorrect," Evans said.

Molybdenum spiked to around $70 a pound during the 1970s but then came off
with oil prices through the 1980s and 1990s. Molybdenum prices began to rise
again in 2004 along with the boom in steel, oil and other commodities.

The metal's price has been around $32 to $35 a pound for much of this year,
but is now moving into the $30 to $31 area. The industry sees molybdenum prices
declining more in the short term, perhaps into the $25 to $30 range because of
flagging demand for steel and oil, Ioannou said.

But its strong supply-demand fundamentals suggest the metal will avoid a
collapse, such as the nearly 50% decline in copper prices since July, Ioannou
said.

"The outlook for the metal is still pretty strong," he said.



-By Matt Whittaker, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-(0)20-7842-9415;
[e-mail]


http://www.metalprices.com/metalNews.asp?id=80105&svc=ODJ&ty…

[Videomart]

Base-metal earnings season to start on a gloomy note
Profits Pinched

Peter Koven, Financial Post
Published: Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The third-quarter earnings season kicks off today for Canada's base-metal companies, and the numbers and guidance are expected to be poor. But for industry experts, that does not seem to matter.

In the midst of the biggest commodity bear market in years, all the focus will be on how the miners plan to cope with collapsing commodity prices brought about by global recession fears.

"More importantly than the actual earnings is how these companies are containing their costs going forward," said Justin Reid, an analyst at Cormark Securities.

Prices for copper, nickel, zinc, lead and aluminum were all sliding throughout the third quarter that ran from July to September. However, the dramatic drop did not happen until September as global credit conditions worsened. That final drop put the industry in crisis and triggered mine closure announcements.

Since industry conditions are so much worse now than they were during the third quarter, the earnings have become largely irrelevant. But investors will be listening for evidence from company executives that they can maintain healthy balance sheets through the tough times, which most experts figure will last for at least the next several months.

Greg Barnes, an analyst at TD Newcrest, noted that more focus could shift to corporate actions such as share buybacks and M&A and away from growth opportunities.

In the third quarter, the averages price of copper was US$3.49 a pound, nickel was US$8.62 a pound, and zinc was US80¢ a pound.

Those are anywhere from 60% to 84% above current levels. However, they are still down enough from previous highs that most base-metal companies are expected to report considerably lower earnings than they did a year ago, or in the prior quarter.

Many of the companies will get hit because they record provisional prices first, and then are forced to adjust their realized prices lower if the price at the end of the quarter is lower than the provisional.

Mr. Barnes wrote that one safe haven in this market is uranium miner Cameco Corp. (CCO/TSX), which is protected by long-term sales contracts and the fact that demand for uranium is relatively stable. He is forecasting earnings of 39¢ a share, below the consensus estimate of 41¢.

"While its legacy contracts reduced the company's sensitivity to a high uranium price environment, these contracts have allowed the company to realize higher uranium prices in a depressed price environment," he said.

Mr. Reid cited First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM/TSX) and Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (TCM/TSX) as two companies that should be able to maintain their growth profiles through a period of weak base-metal prices because of their solid balance sheets and margins. Both companies are expected to stress these points when they release their earnings.

Teck Cominco Ltd. (TCKb/ TSX) will kick off the base-metals earnings season tonight after the close of markets. Analyst estimates have been downgraded in recent weeks to reflect tumbling copper prices, and the consensus estimate is now $1.23 a share.

[e-mail]


http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=899391

[Videomart]

Chile Molymet sees molybdenum around $10/lb in 2009
Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:54am EST

SANTIAGO, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Chile's Molymet MOL.SN, one of the world's top processors of molybdenum concentrates, on Friday forecast the price of the metal used to harden steel would remain around $10 per lb in 2009, and that demand would fall 20 percent next year.

"When it rains, everything gets wet. There is a significant impact on molybdenum consumption and we have started to feel it in the final quarter of this year and will do all next year," Molymet CEO John Graell told Reuters at a seminar in the Chilean capital, Santiago.

"We are forecasting a significant fall in molybdenum consumption, and we'll probably see it in terms of prices," he added. Molybdenum was trading at over $30 a lb in October, and has sunk sharply in tandem with copper and other commodities on demand fears amid global financial crisis.

Molymet is a major player in global molybdenum and rhenium markets, with production facilities in Chile, Mexico, Germany and Belgium. Chile is the world's No. 2 producer of molybdenum, which is extracted along with its main export copper.
(Reporting by Antonio de la Jara and Pav Jordan; Editing by John Picinich)


http://www.reuters.com/article/idINN2146264320081121

[Videomart]

The Challis Messenger - November 22, 2008

Local mines weather storm of falling metal prices

BY TODD ADAMS

Local mining projects are weathering the storm of falling metals prices caused by the global financial crisis, with varying effects from none to a temporary shutdown of exploratory drilling.
A drop in molybdenum from recent prices in the $20-$30 per pound range to $10.25 this week, so far hasn't affected operations at Custer County's single largest employer, Thompson Creek Mine.

Thompson Creek officials believe the price is at or near the bottom and soon will rebound as demand picks up. Thompson Creek is in good financial shape and has no plans for employee layoffs, said Kent Watson, vice president and general manager.

However, Gentor Resources Inc.'s exploratory drilling for molybdenum at the old IMA mine near Patterson has been put on hold after the Whitehall, Montana-based company lost investors. Drill rigs are idle as the company waits for conditions to improve.

"We got hammered by the stock-liquidity crash, just as we got into the good stuff [high quality molybdenum]," said Joe Bardswich, Gentor president and CEO. Shareholders want to invest more in the IMA project, he said, but some had money invested with the bankrupt Lehman Brothers investment bank.

Idaho Cobalt Project officials are looking toward the silver lining in the financial crisis. They hope falling steel and other prices will reduce construction costs on their underground cobalt mine in Panther Creek drainage, near the old company town of Cobalt. Although the price of cobalt is down, the price of higher purity cobalt they plan to mine has been more resilient. Formation Capital officials say they still have hurdles to clear in the lengthy federal and state permitting process, but report they are making progress.

Thompson Creek

Watson said Thompson Creek officials are looking at what molybdenum prices are expected to do in the long-term. While the financial times are frightening with recent abrupt declines in prices, company officials are optimistic the demand and price for molybdenum will soon rebound, perhaps as quickly they recently fell.

"I tell our employees that we're doing the best we can in making our plans to handle the changes," and trying not to overreact to rapid changes, Watson told The Challis Messenger this week. The price of moly has not dropped to the point where the Custer County mine needs to reduce or change its operations, he said.

Most of Thompson Creek's molybdenum is being sold under contracts negotiated before the current price declines on the spot market, Watson said. There is no magic price at which Thompson Creek starts cutting back or doing things differently, he added. "We're not there yet."

Plans to develop the Davidson molybdenum project in British Columbia are on hold as company officials review capital expenditures, projects and operating plans to make sure they maintain enough working capital.

In an article posted on Mineweb November 10, Thompson Creek Metals President and CEO Kevin Loughrey said "we have some reason to believe that we are near the bottom right now" with moly prices at $12 per pound.

The market price of $10.25 per pound on November 17 is still considerably higher than the low price of under $2 per pound, which forced the Clayton-area mine to temporarily shut down in the mid-1990s.

Plans for expanding the current mine are based on $10 per pound moly, while the company designed its original mine pit based on a price of $5 per pound.

The financial crisis has caused a decline in global molybdenum demand, Loughrey said. "And that demand reduction, in turn, has caused a dramatic reduction in prices unlike anything I think any of us have seen in the moly business in a long time," he said.

Loughrey blames the price drop not on speculative investing that's affected other metals, but on the inability of moly projects, and others that consume steel, to secure financing.

Loughrey does not believe there will be a return to the very low moly prices in the 1990s. Moly traders and steel companies are getting rid of their stockpiles. "Traders have been hurt in this situation because they bought moly at one price, demand is reduced, they're losing money and they have to sell quickly," he said.

That's putting downward pressure on prices, but Loughrey expects prices to rebound after traders run out of stockpiles. He predicts a renewed demand as infrastructure-related projects that consume moly come on line in 2009.

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama plans to create a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank, which will supply $60 billion to finance transportation infrastructure nationwide. China recently announced a $568 billion package over the next two years to construct new railways, subways and airports and to rebuild communities destroyed in this spring's earthquake in southwestern China.

"Fortunately for Thompson Creek, we find ourselves ? for a variety of reasons ? in about as good a position as a company can be in given these market circumstances," Loughrey said, with a strong cash balance anticipated to grow more by year's end.

Thompson Creek reported in its most recent financial statements that net income for the first nine months of 2008 was $207.8 million, up significantly over 2007 levels. The company has boosted its estimate for molybdenum production from 26 million pounds this year to 30-34 million pounds in 2009.

Idaho Cobalt Project

While cobalt has been selling for about $18 per pound lately, compared to highs of $53 per pound in March, the high-purity metal the Idaho Cobalt Project (ICP) expects to produce has stayed more resilient. It was in the mid-$30 per pound range, according to an October 23 news release by Formation Capital Corporation CEO Mari-Ann Green. That makes the ICP more attractive than other projects seeking construction financing, she said.

"Although falling commodity prices are proving detrimental for those companies already in production, it can be expected to be advantageous for those companies, such as ourselves, that require the same commodities to build their facilities," Green said. "Our team is monitoring the commodity prices for such items as steel with the intent of reducing cash outlays for construction materials."

A Forest Service delay in issuing a record of decision for the Idaho Cobalt Project this fall "could be viewed as having a silver lining," Green wrote. The company had planned to begin construction on its underground mine this fall, but that has been delayed until the next construction season. The company expects more favorable financing to be available by then, Green said. Also, the delay has given ICP's team of mining engineers, metallurgists and others the luxury of more time to look at ways to save money and time on project engineering and the purchase of mining equipment.

IMA drilling

Gentor hopes to secure new financing and restart exploratory drilling in March or April, Bardswich said. The engineers estimate the company needs another $3 million to complete exploration and another $19 million to begin moly production.

In the meantime, a caretaker is keeping an eye on the property. The office building and shop buildings at Patterson have been finished, said Bardswich, and there are plans for a cold storage building and a bunkhouse.

At current market prices, the IMA mine project could break even if it went into production, Bardswich said. There are no plans to do so at the lower price, but the consensus in the industry is that moly prices will recover, he said.

Molybdenum is the "energy mineral" and follows the price of oil and gas to some extent , since moly is used to harden the steel used by drilling rigs and in pipelines, Bardswich said. As emerging nations increase their oil consumption, the demand for molybdenum and steel will also increase. While the growth rate of China's economy has dropped from 11 percent to 8 percent, continued growth should help moly prices rebound.


Quelle:
http://www.challismessenger.com

[Videomart]

Molybdenum Supply Forecasting
November 2008 Update

http://www.westerntroy.com/moly11-08.pdf

[Videomart]

Molybdenum cuts continue
Tue, Dec 2, 2008

By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Moly Investing News

The global economic slowdown is affecting both the demand, and price for molybdenum and molybdenum disulfide.

China just announced that its exports of molybdenum are down 6.1 per cent in October, and 21.6 per cent annually for the year on year period. China shipped out 2245 tonnes of molybdenum products in October, and 2230 tonnes in September. The total export of molybdenum products in the first ten months reached 21,734 tonnes plummeting from 27,724 tonnes molybdenum in the review period of last year. To cope, companies are planning output cuts and plotting new investment strategies. For the few companies that have a very strong financial position, they are on the look out for acquisitions. At the same time struggling companies may be left with not option but to merge.

BHP Billiton will delay the development of a plant to process molybdenum at a Chilean mine. Mauro Valdes, BHP’s spokesman in Santiago said that the decision was made after the price of molybdenum dropped. BHP hadn’t yet approved the investment in the plant at its Escondida copper mine in Chile; he facility would cost between US $120 million to $150 million to build. BHP owns 57.5 per cent of Escondida, while Rio Tinto Group owns 30 per cent, a group led by Mitsubishi Corporation owns 10 per cent, while International Finance Corporation owns the remainder.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, the world’s largest publicly traded copper and molybdenum producer will postpone the reopening of a molybdenum mine in the US and cut production at another facility. Plunging metals prices coupled with the global equity freeze have hammered the company’s share value. Now, they need to cut their spending budget by $800 million. If economic conditions deteriorate further, Freeport may close its Chino mine in New Mexico.

Hunt Gold Corporation has sold its molybdenum investments. Held through subsidiary company American Molygold Corp, the molybdenum interests were unloaded for US $620 million to be settled in shares of Common Stock of the purchaser. The purchaser, who has yet to be named is an American quoted company focused exclusively on the business of Molybdenum. The sale will be completed upon the transfer of title of the various claims held by American Molygold Corp, to the Purchaser. This transaction will be completed by mid January 2009 with all proceeds from the sale to be distributed among stockholders. This will result in a Stock Dividend payout to stockholders valued at US$0.0021 per one share of Hunt Gold Corporation Common Stock.

Roca Mines will scale back expansion plans for its MAX Molybdenum Mine following a dramatic drop in the market price of molybdenum. President and CEO of Roca Mines Scott Broughton announced that his company will continue producing molybdenum through the existing Phase 1 of the project; however Phase 2 will be on hiatus. Phase 2 includes plans for expansion of the mine and also exploration in the area for new deposits. The Phase 2 of the project will be delayed anywhere from a month to more than a year, depending on market conditions. Roca Mines announced that the MAX mine is profitable at current prices due to the fact that the design of the mine allows for low cost production. Roca Mines is optimistic about the future of molybdenum prices, claiming fear and turmoil on the markets is causing moly to be undersold despite strong fundamentals. On the upside, the supply of molybdenum has taken a hit because many high-cost producers have already pulled the plug on their operations and have shut down. Mr. Broughton added that molybdenum prices have a tendency to spike up and down very rapidly, so they don’t want to miss out on the up side of prices when they come back up. For that reason Phase 1 operations will continue, and Roca Mines will not lay off any employees who are actively involved in Phase 1.

http://www.molyinvestingnews.com/422-molybdenum-cuts-continu…

[Videomart]

MOLY DEMAND TO BENEFIT
U.S. infrastructure proposals ring glad tidings for molybdenum
U.S. infrastructure proposals are spreading a bit of seasonal Christmas cheer
to a depressed domestic mining and metals industry.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 10 Dec 2008

RENO, NV -

Gold and commodity prices are benefitting from President-elect Barack Obama's proposed $136 billion infrastructure economic stimulus program, expected to generate up to 2.5 million U.S. jobs by 2011.

In a base metals industry report Tuesday, Canada's Haywood Securities say they believe the infrastructure program will also increase demand for molybdenum.

Caterpillar, engineering groups, and Brazilian steelmakers emerged as big winners on the NYSE Monday while industries as diverse as mining and internet companies are expected to economically benefit from the program.

Gold prices also rallied Monday along with other precious metals prices and commodities. Gold futures recorded modest gains on Tuesday, rising $ 4.90 to end at $774.20 an ounce on the NYMEX.

Federal lawmakers are scrambling to create their own infrastructure packages, including Rep. James Oberstar, D-Minnesota, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, who has just proposed a $45 billion plan called Rebuild America. It calls for $18.25 billion for highways and bridges, $9 billion for environmental infrastructure, $6.5 billion for public transit, $2 billion for railways, $5 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers, and $1 billion for aviation.

Projects that could award contracts in 90 to 120 days would be given priority in Oberstar's proposal.

The nation's governors have also proposed $136 billion in infrastructure projects and has established a coalition for infrastructure investment. The U.S. Conference of Mayors Monday proposed 11,391 infrastructure projects, which would cost $73 billion. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee Chair Charlie Rangel, Oberstar and several mayors participated in a press conference Monday to announce "ready-to-go" infrastructure projects that could be started and completed within two years.

Moly Demand

In their report issued Tuesday, Haywood analysts Stefan Ioannou and Danny Ochoa noted that more than 115,000 kilometres of new oil pipeline is planned over the next seven years. The oil and gas pipeline industry is an important consumer of steel.

While moly demand is expected to remain weak through the first half of next year, "the metal's longer-term outlook remains strong," they advised.

As moly demand grows at a rate of 4% to 6% each year, it requires the equivalent of one new molybdenum mine to come into production each year "over the foreseeable future." However, the analysts noted that only three advanced stage +20 million pound per annum development projects are currently under consideration: Freeport-McMoRan's Climax project in Colorado, General Moly's Mt. Hope project in Nevada, and Moly Mines' Spinifex Ridge project in Western Australia. Most new significant development projects are currently being delayed, the analysts said, including Thompson Creek's Davidson project and a mill expansion at its Endako project.

Haywood noted that both Thompson Creek delays "are a result of the low moly price environment and the company's capital preservation initiative."

Meanwhile, Chile, the world's second largest moly producer, is experiencing substantial reduction in moly production, which was down 26% during the first 10 months of this year.

The analysts also advised that "Chinese exporters have abandoned the moly market over the past three weeks given weak prices."

"Although large consumers in Europe remain out of the moly market, the Chinese have re-commenced buying albeit in thin volumes. The moly (oxide) price has responded positively, up to US$11/lb currently from a recent low of about US$9.80/lb," they added.


http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=…

[Videomart]

Chinese molybdenum concentrate prices firm up on tight supply
Singapore (Platts)--12Dec2008

China's domestic molybdenum concentrate prices appear to have firmed up
this week as supply continues to tighten, industry sources said.

Molybdenum concentrate prices were mostly heard between Yuan
1,700($248)-1,900/mtu, up about Yuan 100-150/mtu from the previous week.

Sources said supply was tight as most mines in Huludao in China's
Liaoning province had stopped production, as previous prices at Yuan
1,500-1,700/mtu were too close to their costs. In addition, sources said that
it was hard to work in the cold winter weather.

Sources noted that owners had been selling from their current stockpiles.
With mines closing and no replenishment of stockpiles in sight, supply has
tightened.

As a result, Chinese domestic ferromolybdenum prices have continued to
inch up with most indications ranging widely between Yuan 130,000/mt and Yuan
180,000/mt ex-plant, although no apparent increase in domestic demand was
heard. Prices were heard below Yuan 130,000/mt previously. Molybdenum
concentrate is the raw material used to produce ferromolybdenum.

Chinese domestic molybdenum oxide prices also appeared to firmed up in
view of limited molybdenum oxide with indications at Yuan 1,950-2,000/mtu, up
about Yuan 100/mtu from the previous week.

Meanwhile, Chinese spot molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum export trade
remained stuck in the doldrums due to an extreme lack of overseas buying
interest in view of uncertainty over the worsening state of the global
economy, industry sources said.

Offers for molybdenum oxide were heard steady between $10/lb and $11/lb
on a FOB basis and ferromolybdenum at $24-26/kg.
--Alvin Yee, [e-mail]

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/8233897.xml?src=Metalsrssh…

[KNORPEL]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert. Grund: Spammposting

[Sochi]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.218.807 von KNORPEL am 16.12.08 22:53:43

Knorpel, wenn man wüßte, ob oder wann, dann wäre das gut. Denke man sollte noch abwarten und deshalb nicht gleich schlechtes denken. Vielleicht könnte man auch mal die Experten fragen, die sich damit befassen, oder was meinst Du dazu......

[Videomart]

Monday, December 15, 2008

Molybdenum demand to benefit from infrastructure programs
by Andrew McCrea

In a base metals industry report Tuesday, analysts believe that US government infrastructure program initiatives will also increase demand for molybdenum.

Haywood analysts Stefan Ioannou and Danny Ochoa noted that more than 115,000 kilometres of new oil pipeline is planned over the next seven years. The oil and gas pipeline industry is an important consumer of steel.

Molybdenum demand is expected to remain weak through the first half of next year, although the metal's longer-term outlook remains strong.

As moly demand grows at a rate of 4% to 6% each year, it requires the equivalent of one new molybdenum mine to come into production each year "over the foreseeable future."

However, the analysts noted that only three advanced stage +20 million pound per annum development projects are currently under consideration: Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE:FCX) Climax project in Colorado, General Moly's (AMEX:GMO) Mt. Hope project in Nevada, and Moly Mines' (ASX/TSX:MOL) Spinifex Ridge project in Western Australia.

Most new significant development projects are currently being delayed, the analysts said, including Thompson Creek's Davidson project and a mill expansion at its Endako project. The analysts noted that both Thompson Creek delays "are a result of the low moly price environment and the company's capital preservation initiative."

Meanwhile, Chile, the world's second largest moly producer, is experiencing substantial reduction in moly production, which was down 26% during the first 10 months of this year.

The analysts also advised that "Chinese exporters have abandoned the moly market over the past three weeks given weak prices."

"Although large consumers in Europe remain out of the moly market, the Chinese have re-commenced buying albeit in thin volumes. The moly (oxide) price has responded positively, up to US$11/lb currently from a recent low of about US$9.80/lb," they added.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/763/molybde…

[Videomart]

News Friday, 19 Dec, 2008

Chilean November molybdenum exports down by 50% YoY

Platts reported that the value of Chile's exports of ferromolybdenum and molybdenum halved in November 2008, dropping 49.9% YoY to USD 179 million from USD 357.3 million in the same month of last year.

The figures reflect the sharp drop in international molybdenum prices which have fallen to less than USD 10 per kilogram, from more than USD 30 per kilogram just a few weeks ago, and lower production from Chile's large copper mines, several of which produce the minor metal as a byproduct.

Molybdenum production to October 30th 2008 totaled 27,341 tonnes, down by 26.2% YoY from the same period of last year.

Exports for the first 11 months of 2008 were valued at USD 3.221 billion, down by 7% YoY from USD 3.467 billion in the same period of last year. Chile is one of the world's leading molybdenum producers.

http://www.steelguru.com/news/index/2008/12/18/NzU4MDE%3D/Ch…

[Videomart]

Metals & Minerals
"Many Moly Development Projects Remain Unfinanced; Current Producers To Shine"
CIBC World Markets, November 24, 2008
http://www.mphventurescorp.com/i/pdf/Moly_Initiation_CIBC_No…

(Ein Bericht über TCM ab Seite 23. Dank an Eifel für die Recherche!)

[Videomart]

PRICES TO TRADE SIDEWAYS IN SHORT TERM
Haywood advises ‘underweight‘ position in base metals stocks but bullish long term
Haywood Securities say metal prices seem oversold and will remain so as long as negative sentiment persists.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 08 Jan 2009

RENO, NV -

Haywood Securities Wednesday lowered its forecasts for silver, palladium, platinum, rhodium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc and cobalt, molybdenum and uranium prices.

Mining analysts lowered their predictions for 2009 prices for silver from $14.50 per ounce to $13.50 per ounce, halved their forecasted palladium price from $400/oz to $200/oz, dropped projected platinum prices from $1,600 to $850/oz, and deeply slashed the expected rhodium price from the originally projected $6,000/oz to $1,000/oz.

The nickel price forecast declined from the originally projected $7/lb to $4.50/lb while projected cobalt price prediction dropped 50% from $30/oz to $15/lb. Tungsten price forecasts were dropped from $225 to $218/mtu while the spot uranium price prediction declined from $80/lb to $75/lb. The analysts halved their molybdenum price forecast from $17.50/lb to $15/lb.

In their analysis, Haywood noted that base metals prices were down 37% quarter over quarter during the fourth quarter of 2008. "Metal prices seem oversold to us, but until demand stabilizes, we expect that they will remain so as negative sentiment persists," the analysts said.

Meanwhile, the analysts advised, "Markets remain extremely volatile, and until some stability returns, we expect base metals prices will, at best, trade sideways for the short term." More base metals mine shutdowns are inevitable, they said, along with additional production curtailments.

"The biggest question will be whether these expected supply reductions will be offset by the destruction of demand precipitated," Haywood analysts said. "As a result, we remain cautious on base metals stocks in the near term, and suggest an underweight position. Over the longer term, we remain bullish on base metals prices, as many operations are currently losing money, and higher prices are needed to justify new mine development."

Along with the adjustments Haywood made to its base metals and precious metals assumptions, the analysts introduced a long-term uranium price deck. ""We believe we are the first to publish discrete spot and LT price decks, but believe this is a necessity at a time where the spread between LT and spot uranium prices far exceeds historical averages (currently US$17, vs historical average spread of ~US$5). We expect others to follow suit as this discrepancy persists."

The analysts noted, "The underlying supply demand fundamentals for uranium remain strong, producers continue to downgrade production forecasts (e.g., Cameco), and new production continues to be delayed owing to technical, geopolitical, and financing issues. Demand growth remains steady, particularly where funded/supplemented by sovereign sources."

Nevertheless, Haywood advised that the market-wide liquidity crisis has led to a sell-off of uranium inventory from funds and a pronounced decrease in the spot price.

Haywood's analysis asserts that a "significant discord" between the spot and LT prices remains. "A dichotomy persists where company valuations in the capital markets track closely with the spot price rather than the LT price."

Weak PGM Demand

In the near-term Haywood analysts anticipate weakening demand for platinum and palladium used in autocatalyst manufacture for gasoline-powered vehicles in North America and a strengthening demand for both metals in autocatalyst manufacture for diesel-powered vehicles mainly in Europe. "We expect this scenario to provide more demand-side support for platinum than palladium, but anticipate a near-term waning in jewellery demand for platinum but strengthening demand for palladium."

"Investment demand for both metals is anticipated to weaken, and industrial demand for both metals to strengthen," the analysts advised.

Haywood also expects an improvement in the South African platinum supply. "In the near term, we anticipate a weakening of Russian, South African, and North American palladium supply," the analysts forecast.

Long-term metal price forecasts for rhodium were lowered by Haywood to $1,000 per ounce from the original long-term price forecast of $2,200/oz.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=76…

[Videomart]

Fundamental Views on Metals Markets
By Larry W. Reaugh
23 Jan 2009 at 03:49 PM GMT-05:00
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=48982

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek cuts molybdenum production
Peter Koven, Financial Post
Published: Tuesday, January 27, 2009

The realities of the molybdenum market finally caught up to Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

After watching several competitors scale back production, chief executive Kevin Loughrey reached the same conclusion they did: conserving cash is a much better idea right now than trying to push product into an uncertain market.

Thompson Creek followed through with a drastic cut in its 2009 production forecast Tuesday of as much as 41%. It plans to produce 20 to 24 million pounds of the silvery-white metal this year, down from the prior guidance of 31.5 to 34 million pounds.

"This is a unique time, because we're not getting a confident sense from customers that they can even predict where their business is headed for the balance of the year. That ripples down through everybody," Mr. Loughrey said in an interview.

Molybdenum, or moly, was a little-known metal that suddenly became an investor darling in the last few years. It is used in high-quality steels with applications in the energy industry, so it became a popular way for investors to play the booming energy sector.

But it underwent a collapse in early November, when prices fell from US$32 a pound to about US$12 a pound in a matter of days.

Mr. Loughrey is confident it will come back strong, partly because the steel companies serving the energy industry are in somewhat better shape than those serving other sectors (such as autos). The pick-up in infrastructure projects is almost certain to help moly as well, he said.

Until that happens, he would rather sit on Thompson Creek's large cash balance (an estimated US$225-million at the end of 2008) than produce molybdenum that he may not be able to sell.

As one of the rare mining companies with a very strong balance sheet, Mr. Loughrey said he is also out looking for potential acquisitions.

"There are plenty of assets out there that are undervalued. If we find one that's accretive to our shareholders and doesn't have a lot of debt associated with it, we'll take a look at that," he said.

The list of junior moly companies that could be available is small and includes names like Creston Moly Corp., Adanac Molybdenum Corp., General Moly Inc., and Moly Mines Ltd.Thompson Creek also announced a major slowdown in its development projects back in December.

http://www.financialpost.com/reports/property/story.html?id=…

[Videomart]

Market price of Moly oxide in Q4 fallen steeply
18 Feb, 2009

It is reported that the market price of molybdenum oxide in the fourth quarter of 2008 had suddenly fallen steeply from USD 30 per pound of Mo at the end September of 2008 to USD 8.75 per pound of Mo at the end December of the same year, having broken the level of USD 10.

According to the settlement of accounts for October to December 2008 quarter, released in last week by Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc of the USA, the reason for this sharp price fall of molybdenum oxide was due to a sudden and considerable shrink of the world demand for molybdenum.

According to the survey by CRU, the quantities of molybdenum consumed and supplied in the world for the calendar year of 2007 were consumption at 453.9 million pounds, supply at 456.6 million pounds and balance at oversupply of 2.7 million pounds. Also, those in the first 9 months of 2008 were consumption at 353.2 million pounds, supply at 358.4 million pounds and balance at oversupply of 5.2 million pounds.

Accordingly, the market price of molybdenum oxide in the world throughout the calendar year of 2008 moved on USD 34.0 as a higher side and USD 8.75 as a lower side. Also, those in October to December quarter of 2008 were USD 30 as a higher side and USD 8.75 as a lower side, having recorded a considerable fall of more than 70% from the higher level.

(Sourced from TEX Report Limited)

http://steelprices-middleeast.com/news/index/2009/02/18/NjQx…

[Videomart]

Will the stimulus jumpstart molybdenum?
Fri, Feb 20, 2009

By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Moly Investing News

After weeks of debate, on Tuesday, US president Barack Obama signed the stimulus bill. Many were hoping that this would have marked a momentous occasion, one in which the economic picture started to improve. In true nature of the recession thus far; the exact opposite of what was anticipated transpired. Shortly after the bill was signed, the Dow Jones declined nearly 300 points to finish close to its lowest level of the financial crisis. Fearful investors piled into safe-haven investments such as U.S. Treasuries and gold.

The steel sector has been deeply impacted by the global economic climate; with an approximate 50% decline in production. Moly, as an important alloy, is following suit. Miners around the globe have been on a fast track since H2 2008; adjusting their business plans to cope with the deepening recession.

Moly prices have fluctuated in the New Year, but have for the most part finished where they started. The market demand for molybdenum decreased during the Lunar New Year holiday, as purchase volumes from China were light. The price dropped; then steel mills started to strengthen their efforts to stock the products prior to the Spring Festival. The price jumped briefly but then stabilized back to New Year holiday levels.

Company News

This week Thompson Creek Metals sent out an update concerning its plans to reduce output and conserve cash. ”Thompson Creek has taken the necessary steps to adjust production and reduce costs and capital spending in response to the lower demand for molybdenum and generally unfavorable market conditions,” said Kevin Loughrey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.” The changes we have adopted, along with the Company’s substantial cash balances and low debt, put Thompson Creek in a better position to continue operating during the worldwide economic downturn. We intend to remain flexible and ready to adjust our production higher or lower if there are substantial changes in market conditions in the future.”

The Company announced on January 27, 2009 that its molybdenum production is expected to be 20 to 24 million pounds in 2009, down from previous guidance of 31.5 to 34 million pounds. The Company’s sales of molybdenum produced at its own mines are expected to be 20 to 24 million pounds in 2009. As previously announced, the Endako expansion project has been suspended until the molybdenum market improves. The Company’s cash balances were $258 million and outstanding debt was $17.3 million as at December 31, 2008. The company’s Cash balances as of February 16, 2009 were approximately $271 million, and outstanding debt is estimated to be $17.3 million.

The largest producer of molybdenum in Asia, China’s Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group Co, has seen its full-year net profit fall 13 percent year-on-year, in response to the falling molybdenum price. January-December net income fell to 2.75 billion Yuan ($402 million) in 2008 from 3.17 billion Yuan a year earlier.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold expects its sales to slide 15% to 60 million lbs in 2009 from the 71 million lbs shipped in 2008. The new forecast is 25% lower than the 2009 estimate made last October, attributing the change to reduced-demand market conditions. In the fourth quarter of 2008, Freeport-McMoRan had consolidated molybdenum sales from the Henderson primary mine in Colorado and byproduct mines totaled 12 million lbs, 7 million lbs lower than the fourth quarter of 2007, primarily resulting from lower demand. Now, Freeport has revised annual production plans at Henderson for 2009 at a 25% reduction. In a statement, the company said “additional reductions at Henderson may be considered if market conditions warrant.” Freeport also has made adjustments to its molybdenum production plans at certain byproduct mines.

Peru is the world’s largest producer of silver and in the top five in gold, copper and zinc production. It also produces large amounts of minerals such as molybdenum and tin. The country has been hit hard by the recession; and financing for mining projects has dried up. Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SAA just announced that it would suspend its molybdenum circuit, which produced 3 million pounds of molybdenum in 2008, due to poor market conditions. Base metals miner Southern Copper Corp. (PCU) said recently that its capital projects have been put on hold or dramatically reduced as a result of what it called the “drastic” reduction in metals prices and unsettled economic conditions.


http://www.molyinvestingnews.com/630-will-the-stimulus-jumps…

[Videomart]

Molybdenum prices seen at $11/lb in '09-Cochilco
Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:35am EST

SANTIAGO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Chilean government copper commission Cochilco said on Monday it saw prices for molybdenum, the metal used to add strength and shine to specialty steels, at $11 per pound in 2009, down from $30/lb for most of last year.

Prices for molybdenum crashed with other base metals in late 2008, hit by a demand slump amid global economic crisis.

Cochilco said in a report it saw global molybdenum output down 1.6 percent this year as demand falls 0.9 percent, leading to a likely surplus of 284 metric tonnes.

"This would mean molybdenum prices will fluctuate between $9- and $14 per pound, with an average of about $11 per pound for the year," Cochilco said in a report.

The report said that in 2008 the molybdenum market ended with a surplus of 1,700 metric tonnes.

"With respect to Chile, after a fall of 25 percent in production in 2008 versus 2007, there will be a recovery, with output reaching 40,000 tonnes in 2009, or 19 percent more than last year," Cochilco said.

The rise will come amid higher output at several divisions of Codelco, the world's second-largest producer of the metal, and the Pelambres, Sur Andes and Collahuasi mines, where molybdenum is produced as a by-product.

The top global producer of molybdenum is U.S. miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX.N).

(Reporting by Pav Jordan; editing by Jim Marshall)


http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSN234214362009…

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek Seeks Acquisition to Boost Output )
By Stewart Bailey

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Thompson Creek Metals Co., the operator of molybdenum mines in North America, said it would like to make an all-stock acquisition to boost output and the company is in no rush because asset prices may continue falling.

“We’d like to go out there and do an acquisition, but we don’t feel an immediate sense of urgency because there may be some more pain to be felt in the marketplace,” Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said yesterday in an interview in Hollywood, Florida. “That will be felt most acutely by undercapitalized companies that have debt.”

Thompson Creek will buy mines or deposits that contain molybdenum and copper and may consider other metals, Loughrey said. High debt levels in target companies would deter deals in the current market, he said. Loughrey declined to name acquisition targets.

Loughrey, along with larger rival Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., has postponed projects and slashed production in response to a slump in the price of molybdenum, used to toughen steel for pipelines, refineries and drilling equipment. The drop in metal prices and a freeze in credit markets caused share prices of metal explorers and mine developers to crater.

Thompson Creek rose 1 cent to C$3.76 at 3:59 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The stock has dropped 76 percent in the past six months, paring the company’s market value to C$459.7 million ($365.8 million).

Shareholders are “coming to grips with the fact that assets are worth a small fraction of what they were before,” Loughrey said.

Preserve Capital

Thompson Creek has $270 million in cash, a $35 million untapped credit line and $15 million in debt, Loughrey said. He said he plans to preserve capital until market conditions improve and may change production targets if there is a significant gain or decline in prices.

Molybdenum prices have dropped 70 percent in the past six months and now trade at $9.75 a pound, according to Metal Bulletin.

The company said on Feb. 18 that annual production would be 20 million pounds to 24 million pounds, down from an earlier estimate of 31.5 million to 34 million.

Molybdenum prices will recover as government economic- stimulus packages take effect, emerging-market economies build new energy infrastructure and developed countries replace worn pipelines and aging oil refineries, he said.

“Long term, we still feel very comfortable where moly is headed,” Loughrey said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a0JA829g…

(Thx eye!)

[Videomart]

Molybdenum seen weak in 2009 but recovery in 2011
Wed Mar 4, 2009 3:58pm GMT
By Michael Taylor

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Molybdenum prices will stay low
at between $10.50-$11 a lb this year because of weak demand from
steel makers, but in 2011 it will rise to above $20 as demand
rebounds, U.S.-based CPM Group said on Wednesday.
Douglas Horn, commodity analyst at CPM said global stimuli
packages will help boost prices of molybdenum, a byproduct of
copper, to around $16 in 2010.
"There is a large amount of government infrastructure
spending coming online," he said at a conference organised by
the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Metal-Pages.
"Our estimates indicate that over $700 billion will be
poured into the market on the infrastructure side."
Molybdenum prices currently at around $9 are
down from around $34 a lb last August.
"They fell for a very good reason -- there has been a deep
drop in steel production," he said. "The fourth quarter (of
2008) was particularly bad for the stainless steel industry and
they are the largest moly consumer."
Horn said 70 percent of molybdenum demand comes from steel
production and output cuts during this slowdown had exceeded
previous recessions.
On the supply side, Horn said there was a big bulge of
"probable development projects" in 2012, but they would depend
on financing.
"But once re-stocking resumes ... (any upturn) could be very
drastic, very swift and demand for molybdenum could be quite
strong," he said.

COBALT OUTLOOK
The metal exchange is planning to launch futures contracts
for molybdenum and cobalt either this year or early next year.
[ID:L4267331]
Eric Taarland, a senior consultant at CRU Group, told the
conference he expected substantial growth in the use of cobalt
over the next 10 years.
This growth will largely be fuelled by environment-friendly
legislation and an increase in demand for hybrid car batteries.
Cobalt, a byproduct of nickel mining, is used in aerospace
sector and is a key component of re-chargable batteries.
Taarland cautiously added however, that there was a risk of
over-supply in the medium-term due to new mining projects, but
said the downturn in commodity prices and a weak economic
outlook could result in more cutbacks.
"The credit crunch and recession has and will hit cobalt
demand," Taarland said. "Our macro analysis suggests that true
recovery will not hit until next year."
"We do expect a recovery in 2010 to be considerable and for
this to continue into 2011."
Taarland added that 50 percent of cobalt production
facilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo had already been
cut, with 40-50 percent of Chinese refining capacity suspended.
CRU expects cobalt to remain below $20 a lb
this year. Prices are currently around $15 a lb.
(Editing by xxxxxx)
(([e-mail]; [phone]))


http://uk.reuters.com/article/motoringAutoNews/idUK165797+04…

[Videomart]

Molybdenum seen weak in 2009 but recovery in 2011
Wed Mar 4, 2009 3:58pm GMT

By Michael Taylor

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Molybdenum prices will stay low
at between $10.50-$11 a lb this year because of weak demand from
steel makers, but in 2011 it will rise to above $20 as demand
rebounds, U.S.-based CPM Group said on Wednesday.
Douglas Horn, commodity analyst at CPM said global stimuli
packages will help boost prices of molybdenum, a byproduct of
copper, to around $16 in 2010.
"There is a large amount of government infrastructure
spending coming online," he said at a conference organised by
the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Metal-Pages.
"Our estimates indicate that over $700 billion will be
poured into the market on the infrastructure side."
Molybdenum prices currently at around $9 are
down from around $34 a lb last August.
"They fell for a very good reason -- there has been a deep
drop in steel production," he said. "The fourth quarter (of
2008) was particularly bad for the stainless steel industry and
they are the largest moly consumer."
Horn said 70 percent of molybdenum demand comes from steel
production and output cuts during this slowdown had exceeded
previous recessions.
On the supply side, Horn said there was a big bulge of
"probable development projects" in 2012, but they would depend
on financing.
"But once re-stocking resumes ... (any upturn) could be very
drastic, very swift and demand for molybdenum could be quite
strong," he said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/motoringAutoNews/idUK165797+04…

[Videomart]

#174922 von chartex 25.03.09 13:28:25 Beitrag Nr.: 36.843.158


Bei welchem Molypreis liegt für TCM die Gewinnschwelle?

Erwartungsgemäß hat TCM mit einem Netto-Gewinn von 68,5 Mio $ aus dem operativen Geschäft im 4. Quartal 2008 nochmals richtig gut verdient. Gegengerechnet wurden dann ein Abbau des "Goodwill" (buchhaltungstechnisch bedingter "immaterieller Firmenwert" aus der früheren Kaufpreiszahlung anlässlich der Übernahme von Thompson Creek durch Blue Pearl) sowie Umstellungen im Bereich der steuerlichen Behandlung, sodass sich nach diesen Einmaleffekten ein mäßiger Verlust für das letzte Quartal ergab. Zeitlich gesehen kam diese Gegenrechnung in meinen Augen zu einer gut passenden Gelegenheit, da der Aktienkurs sowieso tief im Keller ist, deutlich niedriger als dem Firmenwert entspricht, und dieser Verlustausweis für das letzte Quartal sowieso bereits im Aktienkurs eingepreist ist. Trotzdem ergab sich für das Gesamtjahr ein beeindruckender Gewinn und ein hervorragender Cash-Flow.
All dies ist allerdings Vergangenheit. Die Aussichten für das Jahr 2009 orientieren sich nicht an dem phantastischen Ergebnis von 2008 sondern an dem Molypreis und damit an den Gewinnaussichten für das laufende Jahr.

Nachdem nun die Jahreszahlen für 2008 vorliegen, versuche ich in einer überschlägigen Rechnung herauszufinden, ab welchem durchschnittlichen Molypreis für das Gesamtjahr 2009 TCM in die Gewinnzone kommt. Dabei gehe ich von folgenden Annahmen aus:

Im Jahr 2008 wurde nahe am Leistungslimit gearbeitet, da der Grundsatz war, zu dem in diesem Jahr hohen Molypreis soviel Menge zu produzieren, wie nur möglich ist. Gearbeitet wurde praktisch ohne Pause an 7 Tagen die Woche und rund um die Uhr. Nach aller Lebenserfahrung sind dabei diverse Überstunden angefallen, um Krankheit oder Urlaub von Mitarbeitern oder sonstige Personalengpässe auszugleichen. In diesen Tagen ist nun der Übergang erfolgt zu dem bereits 2006 angewendeten System, 10 Tage zu arbeiten und dann 4 Tage Pause zu machen. Weiterhin wird im Sommer die Produktion für 4 Wochen vollkommen eingestellt.
Nun gibt TCM an, sobald der Molypreis wieder steigt und es damit lohnend wird, wieder grössere Mengen zu produzieren, die Produktion sehr schnell wieder hochfahren zu können. Insofern gehe ich davon aus, dass keine größeren Entlassungen von Mitarbeitern geplant sind. Abbau von Überstunden, Verringerung der Mitarbeiterzahl durch die übliche Fluktuation und gestoppte Neueinstellung dürften damit zwar zu einer gewissen Kostenentlastung im Personalkostenbreich führen, nicht jedoch zu einem dramatischen Rückgang der Personalkosten. Hingegen könnten sich die Lohnkosten durch turnusmäßige Tariferhöhungen etwas nach oben bewegen. Für eine genauere Abwägung fehlen mir die präzisen Unterlagen, sodass ich für meine Rechnung zunächst einmal nur unterstellen kann, dass Einsparungen möglich sind.

Insbesondere in der ersten Hölfte von 2008 sind die Kosten für Treibstoffe und Energie sehr stark angestiegen. In der zweiten Jahreshälfte war dann ein sehr deutlicher Rückgang bei den Treibstoffpreisen feststellbar. Dieses niedrige Kostenniveau besteht auch derzeit noch und ich erwarte auch nicht, dass die Kosten von Anfang 2008 in diesem Jahr wieder ereicht werden könnten. Insbesondere muss sich zusätzlich aus der um mehr als 30% reduzierten Produktionszeit ein deutliches Einsparpotential ergeben. Wenn in den Minen in 2009 um mehr als 30% weniger gearbeitet wird, dann sinken parallel dazu entsprechend auch die Kosten für Reparaturen an den Maschinen.
Auch hier stehe ich vor dem Problem, dass diese Kosten aus den Veröffentlichungen nicht wirklich ablesbar sind, sondern sich in dem Gesamtpaket "Operating Expenses" verstecken. Zusätzlich enthält diese Position nach meinem Verständnis auch noch die Beschaffungskosten des von Fremdfirmen angekauften Molykonzentrats, sodass eine Aufteilung in eigene Kosten der Produktion und fremde Kosten nicht möglich erscheint.

Der beschriebene Sachverhalt zeigt, dass Gesamt-Kosten-Einsparungen zu erwarten sind. Eine direkte Umrechnung, was dies für die Kosten je Pfund Moly bedeutet, ist aber nicht möglich. Als Ausweg stütze ich mich somit auf die vom Unternehmen für 2009 geschätzten Kosten der Produktion pro Pfund, welche als Spanne von 7,25 $ bis 8,25 $ je Pfund angegeben werden. Auf diese Kosten müssen sinnvollerweise noch die weiteren im Unternehmen anfallenden Kosten aufgeschlagen, bzw. je Pfund produziertes Moly aufgeteilt werden.

Diese weiteren Kosten sind insbesondere die Abschreibungen, die Kosten des Vertriebs, der Verwaltung, der Exploration und der Erfolgsbeteiligung der Mitarbeiter.
In dem erfolgreichen Jahr 2008 wurden z.B. 15,6 Mio $ Kosten als "Stock Based Compensations" (eine Art Erfolgsbeteiligung) verbucht. Ich gehe nicht davon aus, dass diese Kosten vollkommen wegfallen in einem Jahr, das für das Unternehmen schwierig ist, rechne aber mit einer deutlichen Senkung dieser Kosten. Statt 15,6 Mio $ setze ich für 2009 nur 5 Mio $ an.
Hingegen sollte es praktisch keine Schuldzinsen mehr geben. Die derzeitgen Schulden in Höhe von etwa 17 Mio $ werden durch den Cashbestand von über 250 Mio $ mehr als ausgeglichen und per Saldo sollte eigentlich eher ein Zinsguthaben übrig bleiben.

Da es bei der Rechnung darum geht, den Molypreis zu ermitteln, der soeben die Grenze zwischen Gewinn und Verlust ergibt, ist es sinnvoll, mit der für 2009 vom Unternehmen angepeilten reduzierten Menge (20-24 Mio Pfund) an Molyproduktion zu rechnen, da eine höhere Produktion ja nur stattfinden wird, wenn der Preis wieder deutliche Gewinne ermöglicht. Ich gehe also von einer Produktionsmenge (und unterstelle, dass diese Menge auch der Verkaufsmenge entspricht) in Höhe von 22 Mio Pfund aus.

Die überschlägige Rechnung der anfallenden Kosten gestaltet sich dann wie folgt:

Selling and Marketing 10 Mio $
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation 45 Mio $
General and Administrative 24 Mio $
Stock Based Compansation 5 Mio $
Exploration and Development 7 Mio $

Für Schuld- und Guthabenzinsen setze ich kumulierte Einnahmen von 8 Mio $ an. Gewinne oder Verluste aus Geschäften zur Absicherung von Währungsparitäten kann ich sinnvollerweise nur aussparen, da vorher nicht absehbar ist, ob diese Erträge oder Kosten verursachen.

Damit ergeben sich neben den reinen Produktionskosten überschlägig weitere Kosten des Unternehmens in Höhe von 83 Mio $. Aufgeteilt auf 22 Mio Pfund zu produzierendes Moly ergibt dies etwa 3,77 $ je Pfund.

Somit liegt die Gewinnschwelle für TCM bei der reduzierten Produktion etwa im Bereich von 11 bis 12 $ je Pfund (7,25 bis 8,25 $ reine Produktionskosten plus 3,77 weitere Kosten).

(Quellen: Financial Results und News zu Financial Results vom 19.03.2009 - www.sedar.com)

chartex

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek 'actively' seeking acquisitions

By: Liezel Hill
20th March 2009

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Molybdenum-miner Thompson Creek Metals is on the hunt for near-production acquisitions, and would consider adding copper/moly assets to its pure molybdenum portfolio, CEO Kevin Loughrey said on Friday.

Still, the company is not putting itself under too much pressure to get a deal signed, because the already-decimated market values of potential targets are likely to shrink even further, he added.

Thompson Creek produces molybdenum from its Thompson Creek mine, in Idaho, and the Endako mine, in British Columbia.

However, the firm has had to curtail output and reduce capital expenditure this year, in an effort to conserve cash and match production to weakened demand.

Molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel, traded on the spot market above $30/lb during the first half of last year, but fell off sharply in October, and has dropped to below $9/lb, as global demand for steel declines.

Share prices for molybdenum producers and explorers have also fallen, and Loughrey said on Friday he expects that market values in the industry, particularly for smaller firms, will likely continue low, or possibly even decline further, making potential deals more attractive.

“So we are anxious to do something, we are looking to do something, but we don't feel a sense of urgency to do something today or tomorrow for the sake of getting things done.”

Thompson Creek will be “very cautious” about assuming any significant debt, and is also reluctant to issue shares while its own value remains low.

However, there are several publicly traded companies the shares of which have depreciated to an even greater extent, which means that the relative valuations have changed in Thompson Creek's favour, Loughrey commented.

“And we think that under the right circumstance, consideration of the use of shares for that type of acquisition is appropriate. Because on a relative basis it would be the same, or actually better than buying that same property when our share price was much healthier.”

The company continues to focus on molybdenum, but is “not averse” to looking at a copper/moly property.

Priority will be given to acquiring assets that are close to production, and promise to improve cash flow in the near term.

Thompson Creek has more than $260-million in cash in the bank and long-term debt of only $17-million.

DRIFTING NEAR BOTTOM

Loughrey said that he did not expect molybdenum prices to fall significantly further.

“My sense is that we are near the bottom...that we are drifting near the bottom,” he said.

Demand for the metal has been devastated by the global economic slowdown, as large infrastructure and industrial projects are postponed, and steelmakers slash production levels.

However, Loughrey said that a lot of destocking has taken place over the last three or four months, which means that molybdenum inventories are low levels, at most of Thompson Creek's customers, at least.

“Our sense is that much of that destocking has run its course, and that we will see a modest increase in demand from steel companies, even to meet reduced levels of demand.”

One important deciding factor will be the levels of demand from China, which has historically been a net exporter of molybdenum, but has now entered the market as a buyer, possibly because the “plethora” of small molybdenum mines in the country found themselves unprofitable after the sharp decline in prices.

Thompson Creek sold its first ever molybdenum to Chinese buyers earlier this year, Loughrey said.


http://www.miningweekly.com/article/thompson-creek-actively-…

[Videomart]

European molybdenum prices on the march

SÃO PAULO (Metal-Pages) 24-Apr-2009

Molybdenum prices in Europe appear to have hit the bottom and are currently taking an upward turn, as European traders point the finger at stronger Chinese demand and speculation, renewed interest from the auto sector, in addition to a lack of available.
Price rises are being led by demand for molybdenum trioxide, with traders now putting material at $ 8.10-8.60/lb.
Traders now put duty-paid ferro-molybdenum between $ 20.50-21.50/kg. A ferro-molybdenum trader said following a first round in February, a new wave of Chinese buying has come into the market, and while neither major steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal nor ThyssenKrupp have yet to make an appearance, the level of enquiries from smaller and medium-sized consumers has been significantly encouraging.
Oxide has been impossible to get, a second trader said. “I'm hearing of sales at $ 8.50-8.60/lb but I can't find any,” the trader added.
In the trader's view mostly smaller producers in China with costs running at $ 10-12/lb have either stopped producing or selling, meaning there has been added demand for European material, while Chinese steelmakers whose output is largely unchanged are lacking supplies.
“Demand is in South Korea, Tawain and Indonesia, everywhere, but the traders are in Europe,” the trader added.
A trader reported selling at $ 20.50, doubting whether a price of $ 21/kg is achievable yet.
“What's not clear is whether it's a flash in the pan or not,” the trader said.

www.metal-pages.com/news/story/39110/

[Videomart]

Producers underline Chinese molybdenum appetite
SÃO PAULO (Metal-Pages) 04-May-2009.

With the finger for rising molybdenum prices being pointed at Chinese buyers, if the big producers are not selling significant quantities to China, they are getting plenty of interest from hungry buyers.
It's hard to determine actually whether Chinese buyers are being attracted by lower prices outside of domestic markets, the closure of smaller unprofitable mines in China leading to scarcer availability, or a combination of both.
Late last year, Thompson Creek started shipping to China for the first time, after being approached by agents and companies there.
Thompson Creek says it is difficult to gauge the amount of demand coming from China, which tends to come in waves. Demand increased in February and March before tapering off in early April, picking up again as the month drew to a close.
Molybdenum trioxide began April at 8-8.30 $/lb, before sinking to $ 7.80-8/lb in Europe. Traders now put material at $ 9-9.40/lb.
Data has also shown a recent increase in Chinese output but it's not known how accurate reports are.
A spokesperson at Codelco, Chile's state owned copper- molybdenum producer said while the company is increasing copper shipments to China there is no specific data available on molybdenum. Information on how badly Chinese demand has been hit by the global economic slump is hard to obtain, but reports of slowdowns in sectors using molybdenum such as pipelines, nuclear and electric power plants, jet engines, military hardware and rocketry have not emerged in the media, the spokesperson said.
...
Thompson Creek rival Freeport McMoRan, the world's biggest molybdenum producer, has historically not shipped to China, instead focussing on customers in the United States and Europe. The question is, should Chinese demand continue to grow, how long will Freeport be able to resist the temptation? During its first quarter earnings webcast last month, Freeport McMoRan didn't rule out the possibility of supplying the Chinese market in future.
“We do have some relationships there that give us some opportunities to do that and there has been some recent enquires about it,” Freeport McMoRan President Richard Adkerson said, adding he wouldn't comment further.
...
Meantime, though the odd US and European customer has come back into the market to buy material there has been nothing to suggest a full-blown recovery in in these markets.
...

www.metal-pages.com/news/story/39282/(Auszug)

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek eyes takeover targets as signs improve
SÃO PAULO (Metal-Pages) 08-May-08

Thompson Creek says it is moving closer to an acquisition with executives hopeful the molybdenum sector may be past the worst of the global economic downturn. “It might be time now to look more closely at some of these acquisitions as things start to improve and we start to have a better sense of where things are headed,” said Thompson Creek CEO Kevin Loughrey during a webcast on Friday.
Thompson Creek says there are assets available at attractive prices but should the company make a move, it wouldn't necessarily spell the end for its Endako or Davidson mines, which have been put on hold until molybdenum prices recover.
One sign yet to be seen is a thawing of the financial markets that would help the several stalled major molybdenum projects start to get off the ground, in Loughrey's view.
One candidate for a Thompson Creek takeover would be Adanac's Ruby Creek project in British Colombia, which has been limping along in administration since before Christmas, as management considers all options in a bid to find a way out of its current financial plight.
While the picture has looked better of late with molybdenum prices having started to rise again to $ 9-9.60/lb in Europe, after dropping below $ 8/lb, nothing is being taken for granted in what has been billed the worst economic downturn in more than 60 years.

Following earlier revisions, Thompson Creek expects production and sales to come in at between 20 to 24 million lbs this year.
A little more than 50% of the company's sales are being sold on contract compared with around 75% in normal times, with customers unwilling to commit themselves in the face of current market uncertainty. “Longer term what we thought of as the traditional contract scheme will reassert itself,” Loughrey said.
Thompson Creek says it is now selling around a quarter of its production to China through spot business, having previously never sold there until the beginning of this year.
On previous a visit to China Loughrey said he saw larger, more efficient mines running on more or less the same scale as his own company and a clutch of smaller mining operations that make up a significant proportion of China's output.
Loughrey said he would not have been surprised, given the smaller mines' inefficiencies and sub-standard health and safety conditions -- compared with North American standards -- to see them go out of business when molybdenum prices fell, leading to a supply gap, which has sent Chinese buyers scouring overseas markets for material.

On Thursday, Thompson Creek posted first quarter net earnings of $ 11.2 million a fall of 76.1%, with the company blaming vastly reduced prices brought on by the global economic slowdown. In the same period last year, the company posted earnings of $ 46.8 million. The company said it saw a 69% reduction in the average realised price of molybdenum and upgraded product sales to $ 10.14 /lb in the first quarter versus $ 32.69/lb a year earlier.
Molybdenum production in the first quarter of 2009 was 6.1 million lbs, up from 5.6 million pounds in the same period last year.
Weighted-average cash costs were reduced to $ 5.93/lb produced in the first quarter versus $ 8.29/lb in the opening quarter of 2008.
Cash costs for this year have been revised to $ 6.25- $ 7.25/lb from the previous $ 7.25-$8.25/lb.
Molybdenum trioxide is currently fetching $ 9-9.60/lb in Europe.
[Photo:Thompson Creek]

www.metal-pages.com/news/story/39421/(Auszug)

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek announces Q1 financial results
Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Thompson Creek announces first quarter 2009 financial results. Some of the highlights are as follows:

1. Molybdenum production in the first quarter of 2009 was 6.1 million pounds, up from 5.6 million pounds in the same period a year earlier

2. The first quarter production level was in line with current production plans for the year

3. Weighted average cash costs were reduced to USD 5.93 per pound produced in the first quarter from USD 8.29 per pound a year earlier

4. 2009 guidance for cash costs has been revised to USD 6.25 to USD 7.25 per pound from previous guidance of USD 7.25 to USD 8.25 per pound. Production and sales guidance remains unchanged at 20 to 24 million pounds for the year

5. Operating cash flows were USD 44.7 million in the first quarter as compared with USD 63.4 million a year earlier

6. Total debt was reduced to USD 16.9 million on March 31st 2009 from USD 17.3 million on December 31st 2008. Total cash, cash equivalents and short term investments at March 31st 2009 were USD 260.6 million as compared with USD 258 million on December 31st 2008.

First quarter net income was USD 11.2 million as compared with USD 46.8 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Mr Kevin Loughrey chairman & CEO of Thompson Creek said that "Thompson Creek's mine production during the first quarter of 2009 was consistent with our current plans to produce 20 to 24 million pounds of molybdenum in 2009. However, the reduction in molybdenum production costs exceeded expectations and as a result we have lowered our 2009 estimated range for cash production costs to USD 6.25 to USD 7.25 per pound from previous guidance of USD 7.25 to USD 8.25 per pound. While overall the molybdenum market continues to experience weaker conditions than it did for most of last year, we are encouraged by the upturn in price in the past two weeks and we continue to expect a sustained recovery in molybdenum demand and prices in the medium term future as the world economy recovers from recession."

He added that "Given our strong cash position and recent actions to reduce production and conserve cash, Thompson Creek is well positioned not only to weather additional market weakness should it occur but also to raise production again relatively quickly when demand recovers and to consider possible acquisitions that will benefit shareholders."

The company's revenues declined by 69% YoY to USD 78.9 million in the first quarter of 2009 from USD 254.8 million a year earlier primarily due to a 69% decline in the average realized price for molybdenum and upgraded products to USD 10.14 per pound from USD 32.69 per pound. Sales volume was slightly lower at 7.5 million pounds in the latest quarter versus 7.7 million pounds a year earlier.

Net income was USD 11.2 million or USD 0.09 per basic and diluted common share, compared with USD 46.8 million or USD 0.41 per basic and USD 0.37 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2008. First quarter cash flow from operating activities was USD 44.7 million as compared with USD 63.4 million a year earlier.

Capital expenditures totaled USD 18.7 million in the first quarter of 2009, comprised of USD 14.9 million of sustaining capital expenditures and USD 3.8 million for the company's 75% share of capital expenditures for the Endako mill expansion.

The company's mines produced 6.1 million pounds of molybdenum in the first quarter, up from 5.6 million pounds in the first quarter of 2008. The Thompson Creek Mine produced 4.4 million pounds, up from 3.6 million pounds a year earlier, while the company's 75% share of the Endako Mine's production was 1.7 million as compared with 2 million pounds a year earlier.


http://steelguru.com/news/index/2009/05/12/OTQwOTk%3D/Thomps…

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek molybdenum outlook
Wednesday, 13 May 2009

Molybdenum prices declined gradually during the first quarter of 2009, falling in 11 of the first 13 weeks of the year. The monthly Platts Metals Week published molybdenum oxide price averaged USD 8.94 per pound during the quarter. For the month of April 2009, this published price declined further to an average USD 7.90 per pound.

Based on market trends experienced in the January to April period, the Company expects its average realized price to be lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of 2009. Additionally, the Company's sales volumes are expected to be less during the 2009 second quarter as the Company continues its efforts to match production with the anticipated level of sales.

For 2009, previous guidance for molybdenum production levels of 20 to 24 million pounds remains unchanged. Expected production from the Thompson Creek Mine is 15 to 17 million pounds and the company's 75% share of Endako Mine's expected production is 5 to 7 million pounds.

Given the lower cash cost per pound produced for the 2009 first quarter, the anticipated average cash cost per pound produced in 2009 has been revised to an estimated USD 6.25 to USD 7.25 per pound, with the Thompson Creek Mine expected to be approximately USD 6.00 to USD 7.00 per pound and the Endako Mine at an estimated cash cost of USD 7.00 to USD 8.00 per pound.

The revised 2009 Thompson Creek Mine cash cost per pound produced includes approximately USD 30 million of stripping costs, amounting to USD 1.75 to USD 2.00 per pound produced related to future planned production phases. The 2009 Endako Mine operating plan has minimal stripping costs.

For 2009, its share of estimated sustaining capital expenditures at both mines and the Langeloth Metallurgical Facility is expected to be USD 38 million and its 75% share of the estimated Endako mill expansion capital expenditures is expected to be USD 22 million.

The company's 2009 sales of molybdenum produced from its own mines are expected to be 20 to 24 million pounds, with additional sales of molybdenum purchased, processed and resold in 2009 expected to be 3 to 4 million pounds.

It believes the long term outlook for its business is positive. It is positioned to react quickly to further changes in the molybdenum market in order to ensure that working capital levels are maintained. Operating cash flows will be impacted by approximately USD 20 to USD 24 million for every USD 1 per pound change in the molybdenum price.

http://steelguru.com/news/index/2009/05/13/OTQyMjM%3D/Thomps…

[Videomart]

China Will Create Another Boom in This Metal Soon
By Chris Mayer, editor, Mayer's Special Situations
Saturday, May 23, 2009

When Carl Wilhelm Scheele discovered element 42 back in 1778, he could scarcely have imagined just how important this silvery-white metal would become one day.

Today, the entire energy complex relies on this metal – for everything from oil pipelines to nuclear reactors. Without this metal, the energy business would grind to a halt. Plus, as society gets all worked up over carbon emissions, element 42 is having a greater role to play here, too. Refineries, for instance, use it to remove the sulfur from gasoline and diesel fuels. It's also used in desalination plants, which turn saltwater into drinkable water.

Element 42's main gig is to strengthen steel. It makes steel more resistant to corrosion and extreme heat. As a result, it is incredibly important to just about every infrastructure project you can name and rides the coattails of the great infrastructure build in China, India, and other emerging markets. Globally, the steel industry uses about 85% of element 42 taken out of the ground.

Element 42 is also known as molybdenum, or moly for short. I've been a "moly bull" for several years, but a recent development has me even more bullish on this metal: For the first time in years, the Chinese have become net importers of moly.

China recently became a net importer of moly because its mines are too costly to run profitably at current low moly prices. Various estimates put about half of China's moly production at costs north of $13 a pound. The current moly price is only $8 and change – down from $30-plus last year, mainly as energy markets softened. So there have been a lot of shutdowns in China, as Chinese producers can't make any money.

China also has export quotas that restrict the amount of moly that can leave the country. China knows how important moly is to its growth. It wants to keep moly cheaper and readily available in China.

But you can sell all you want to China. That's the key. And China will need lots of moly. China is the world's largest producer of steel, by far. No one's even close. China produces nearly 40% of the world's steel. It makes twice as much steel as the No. 2 guy, the European Union. Much of that steel will need moly.

I think you can boil down the moly thesis as a sidecar on steel. As steel production rises, moly demand will also rise. In that, there is a long-term story worth hanging onto. China is only just entering its most metal-intensive phase of economic development. As China gets richer, its use of steel will rise at a much faster pace.

So any rebound in moly is bound up in the China growth story. In fact, over the past five years, Chinese demand for moly has grown 27% annually, compared with only 4% globally. China alone now makes up 25% of the global demand for moly – about 110 million pounds.

The beauty of moly as a long-term investment lies in this portrait of long-term demand against a seemingly limited batch of high-grade moly deposits. The long-term demand has, so far, been a reliable upward march.

Molybdenum World Demand



Also, when we think about supply, the ongoing credit crisis has basically quashed whatever new moly projects were on the board. The big New Hope project, owned by General Moly, is at least 20 months away after it gets financing. In this climate, I don't see it getting financing anytime soon. And other big projects by Freeport and Moly Mines have been pushed out to 2011 or canceled altogether.


To sum up: Molybdenum is a winner, albeit one that is temporarily resting, like a basketball player taking a breather before he steps back on the court. All the elements that pushed moly to $30-plus per pound in the first place are still in place for yet another run at three sawbucks or better. Molybdenum is cheap at $8 per pound.

Although the global economic crisis will sidetrack China for a while, the country is just entering its commodity-intensive growth phase. This phase will create terrific investment opportunities in energy, agriculture, and mining for us. "Moly" is just a chapter in a long story... one we'd all be wise to follow.

Sincerely,

Chris Mayer


http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2009/may/2009_may_23.asp

[Videomart]

The TEX Report Topics < Ferro Alloys >
May, 2009 >> 25 (Mon)

Total Output of Molybdenum By 7 Major Mining Companies In Q1 / 09 Decreased By 20%
= Increased Moly Imports By China Had Underpinned Decreased Moly Consumption In Western Countries

The total quantity of molybdenum in molybdenum concentrate produced by seven major molybdenum mining companies of the western world in January - March quarter of 2009 came to 55.90 million lbs., having decreased by approximately 20% compared with that (69.29 million lbs.) in the same quarter of 2008.

According to the contents in settlements of accounts for January - March quarter of 2009 released by these seven companies, the quantities (on Mo content base) of molybdenum in concentrate produced by them in the quarter were as per the table attached hereto. There is a strong view in the market (as Mr. Johm Graell Moore, President of Molymet, said so in Chile) that the total quantity of molybdenum in concentrate to be consumed in the western market for the calendar year (January - December) of 2009 is anticipated to decrease by 30% compared to that for the preceding year of 2008, but a scale of molybdenum production at these mining companies is still not prepared yet to cope with this decrease of molybdenum consumption in 2009.

However, by taking a chance on this fall of molybdenum prices, China has shifted their molybdenum purchases from domestic products to the cargoes to import from overseas countries at discounted prices and, consequently, China imported approximately 7.0 million lbs. (on Mo content base) of molybdenum (mainly molybdenum oxide) from overseas sources (mainly from North, Central and South American countries) in January - March quarter of 2009. A decline of molybdenum production in the western world has been partially diluted by an expansion of molybdenum demand in China and the international oversupply of molybdenum has been rapidly improved from the beginning of May.

According to an information from experts well-experienced in China, the total quantity of molybdenum imported by China in January - March quarter of 2009, including the cargoes as speculated, is supposed to have reached an overwhelmingly larger scale than that recorded in the customs-statistics.

As seen from the table attached hereto, the total quantity of molybdenum in concentrate reduced actually by seven major mining companies of the western world in January - March quarter of 2009 came to 13.4 million lbs. On the other hand, China actually imported 6.85 million lbs. on Mo content base of molybdenum products in the quarter. Therefore, the total quantity of molybdenum as effected to improve the world situation of molybdenum supply is estimated to have reached 20.25 million lbs. Nevertheless, on the assumption that molybdenum consumption in the western world for January - March quarter of 2009 would have decreased by 30% compared to that in the same quarter of 2008, the quantity of molybdenum decreased in consumption for the quarter is thought to be 20.78 million lbs. As far as the global molybdenum situation in January - March quarter of 2009 is concerned, the supply seems to have been balanced in the western world.

Molybdenum is recovered as by-product in copper production and, therefore, this molybdenum production is said to be difficult to cope quickly with a sudden decrease of molybdenum consumption More than 80% of molybdenum to be supplied to the world market is estimated to be produced as by-product in copper production and this fact has been seen from concrete cases in the past years. Accordingly, molybdenum is the metal to be easy to continue its depression for a long period.

When China still continues to import molybdenum, molybdenum will become the second quickest metal to improve the supply situation, following copper. However, the point, having differed from copper, is that China is originally the country to produce molybdenum and continued to exports molybdenum products on a scale of 60 - 70 million lbs. per annum (corresponded to 15 - 20% of molybdenum consumption in the western world) for the last 10 years.

The present situation, which China has faced an excess in imports of molybdenum, has been caused by the following factors ; (1) In order to accord with the policy to preserve natural resources as adopted by the Central Government of China, this Government has enforced the regulations to restrict exports of molybdenum products, and (2) The international price of molybdenum oxide had fallen to a lower level than US$10 per lb. of Mo during November of 2008 to April of 2009 and the economic circumstances were not favorable for molybdenum production in China, having resulted in a loss.

Particularly, in view of the fact that molybdenum prices have turned to rise (the international price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a level of US$9.50 - 10.00 per lb. of Mo) as mentioned in the above (2), it is marked to see how do Chinese molybdenum producers react hereafter to this rise of molybdenum prices (to resume molybdenum production in China). When the international price of molybdenum oxide rises to a level of US$10 - 12 per lb. of Mo, a possibility to resume molybdenum production at idled mines in China is supposed to come up.

If China stops to increase their imports of molybdenum, molybdenum producers in the western world will see a necessity to reduce further their molybdenum production, because the case to reduce molybdenum production by 20% on quarterly base seems to be severe to keep a balance on supply and demand of molybdenum in the world.



last modified : Thu 28 May, 2009 [10:43]


http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/200905/20090…

[Videomart]

http://dailyreckoning.com/china-craves-molybdenum/

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Thompson Creek sees rising molybdenum demand
Tue Jun 9, 2009 12:24pm EDT

* To increase molybdenum production

* Sees lower production costs

* Shares up 3.8 pct in Toronto

TORONTO, June 9 (Reuters) - Thompson Creek Metals Co (TCM.TO) sees demand for molybdenum improving slightly in the remainder of 2009, after having plummeted earlier in the year, Chief Executive Kevin Loughrey said on Tuesday.

"The market has rebounded slightly and we think we will do a little better than earlier indicated," Loughrey told investors at the RBC Global Mining and Materials Conference in Toronto.

Toronto-based Thompson Creek is a pure play molybdenum producer.

Molybdenum, which is used as a strengthening and anti-corrosion agent in steel, had seen demand and prices plunge earlier this year due to the global economic slowdown.

However, molybdenum pricing has slowly begun to edge higher in recent weeks. MLY-OXIDE-LON

On Monday, Thompson Creek said it was restarting a portion of its curtailed production. The change in operating plans will result in production and sales in 2009 being about 10 percent higher than previously expected.

The company said it will continue to monitor market conditions and remain flexible to adjust production levels again, if needed.

Thompson Creek now expects production and sales of molybdenum from its own mines will be in a range of 22 million to 26 million pounds in 2009, up from a prior forecast of 20 million to 24 million pounds.

The company also said it expects its cash production costs to be lower than forecast.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitie…

[Videomart]

The TEX Report
8 June, 2009

China Increased Molybdenum Imports And Recorded High Level Even In April
= Moly Price Index Is Being Risen By Increased Production Of Stainless Steel In China

The imports of molybdenum into China in April of 2009 were known and still indicated the high level. The total quantity (on material base) of main three molybdenum products (molybdenum oxide, molybdenum sulfide and ferro-molybdenum) imported by China in January - April of 2009 came to 21,975 tons, corresponding to 27.2 million lbs. on Mo content base. For a reference, China imported 2,160 tons in material of molybdenum products, corresponding to 2.4 million lbs. on Mo content base, in January - April of 2008.

The quantities of molybdenum products imported by China in the first 4 months (January - April) of 2009 were as per the table attached hereto.

The monthly quantities (on material base) of molybdenum oxide imported by China in January - April of 2009 were <> January : 1,337 tons, <> February : 3,535 tons, <> March : 6,438 tons and <> April : 6,301 tons, having suddenly increased from March, and a scale in imports of molybdenum oxide into China enlarged by approximately 10 times in comparison with the exports of molybdenum products (exported 2,326 tons on material base in January - April of 2009). The exports of molybdenum products from China have been hampered by such barriers as high export duty, allocation system for quantity to be exported from China, and so on.

The world consumption of molybdenum in 2009 is estimated to decrease by 15 - 20% compared to that in 2008 but, as regards the temporary demand for molybdenum from China, various opinions have been seen. However, it is no doubt that China had endeavored to purchase molybdenum at the lowest possible prices in the middle of April, when market price of molybdenum oxide had fallen to a level of US$7.50 - 7.70 per lb. of Mo.

The international price of molybdenum oxide has bottomed out from the beginning of June and risen by 33% to a level of US$10 per lb. of Mo. The reason, why China has suddenly increased their imports of molybdenum products, is not speculation but rather due to the matter to replace molybdenum produced in China at high prices with those imported from overseas sources into China at low prices. The cost to produce molybdenum oxide in China as of May of this year is estimated to be on the line of US$11 - 12 per lb. of Mo and, therefore, a dangerous water area for price of molybdenum oxide has been thought as US$10. However, the current price of molybdenum oxide to be workable has risen to a level of US$13 per lb. of Mo.

A recovery in production of Chinese stainless steel commenced from April to May of this year has become a factor to push up price of molybdenum oxide. The output of crude stainless steel in China for 2009 is anticipated to decrease from that for 2008 but an opinion of this point has recently changed to a scale of 7 million tons per annum in 2009, having maintained a similar level to that in 2008.

China has replaced domestic production of molybdenum with the products imported from overseas sources until the first half of 2009 but, in expectation of these matters which stainless steel production in China will recover more and molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise further, there is a big probability that China will continue to import molybdenum. Therefore, market price of molybdenum oxide is thought to rise to US$13 per lb. of Mo as a target.

The molybdenum production in 2009 has been strategically reduced but, at the stage which LME copper price has risen to a higher level than US$5,000 per ton, molybdenum produced as by-product has put a remarkable impact on the market. An expansion in copper production is not negligible to accelerate a tendency to increase recovery of molybdenum but, when market price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a higher level than US$10 per lb. of Mo, it is questioned whether molybdenum credit is favorable for copper mining companies or not.

According to the settlement of accounts released recently by Antofagasta, the effects of molybdenum credit in copper production were (1) in full year 2008 : 59.2 US-Cents per lb. of Mo, (2) in January - March 2008 : 83.2 US-Cents and (3) in January - March 2009 : 20.4 Us-cents. Molybdenum credit was very useful to reduce the cost for copper production in the past years but this contribution to the cost for copper production has currently fallen to a large extent. Nevertheless, molybdenum credit is still an indispensable factor for copper mines. Many of the parties concerned have a view that, on the opportunity of a rebound in copper price, the quantity of molybdenum to be recovered as by-product will increase again.

For a reference, the world consumption of molybdenum in 2009 is estimated to be in the range of 370 - 380 million lbs. on Mo content base, which will shrink by 17% from that in 2008, but the quantity of molybdenum imported by China in January - April of 2009 has already reached 27.2 million lbs. on Mo content base. Under the situation which the demand for molybdenum in Europe and the USA has been still depressed, the movements in imports of molybdenum by China are not negligible.


last modified : Thu 11 Jun, 2009 [10:04]

http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/200906/20090…

[Videomart]

Moly price well above $10/lb needed to fund new supply – Thompson Creek CEO

By: Liezel Hill
10th June 2009

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The molybdenum price will need to rise significantly from the current level around $10/lb, if the industry is to invest in new production that will be needed to meet future demand, Thompson Creek Metals CEO Kevin Loughrey said on Wednesday.

Molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel, traded on the spot market above $30/lb during the first half of last year, but fell off sharply in October, bottoming at below $8/lb in April 2009.

Producers, including Thompson Creek, responded by curtailing production and freezing capital spending on new projects, although the company announced earlier this week that it has since revised its production forecasts upwards for the year, following a firming in the market.

Last year, Thompson Creek put a mill expansion at its Endako mine, in British Columbia, on hold, and has postponed development of a new underground mine nearby.

The company would want to feel confident of prices in the $12/lb to $13/lb range before it goes ahead with the Endako expansion, Loughrey said in an interview after a presentation in Toronto.

“If the price was there and we felt confident that it would stay there, we would look seriously at firing up the Endako expansion.”

The project, which was approved in the first quarter of 2008, envisaged the expansion of milling capacity at Endako from 28 000 t/d to 50 000 t/d of ore beginning in 2010.

The company had some $22-million worth of material on order for the expansion project before the decision was made to suspend it in December. Instead of paying cancellation fees, the firm opted to completed the purchases, and will be ready to go ahead with the project “as soon as the moly price warrants”, Loughrey said.

Thompson Creek owns 75% of Endako and Japanese metals trader Sojitz Corporation holds the balance.

The firms had also been in talks on Sojitz potentially buying into the nearby Davidson underground asset, before the project was postponed in November last year.

The C$109-million Davidson project is currently planned as a simple mining operation, an adit and small loadout facility, with the idea that ore would be trucked 200 km to the Endako mine for processing.

However, Loughrey said on Wednesday that the company is using the delay to conduct engineering work into a potentially larger, longer-term operation that could include a full-scale mine, which would be more expensive and take longer “but could be a bigger, longer-life project”.

“But the plan right now is still the existing plan, that's the one that we have the application for,” he added.

PRICE OUTLOOK

Loughrey declined to predict where the molybdenum price could be headed, but commented that the market has been “moving slowly in the right direction”.

One significant change in the industry over the last six months or so has been demand from China, which has historically been a net exporter of molybdenum, but has now entered the market as a buyer, as the plethora of small molybdenum mines in the country found themselves unprofitable after the sharp decline in prices.

However, the short-term outlook for moly, which is used to strengthen high-end stainless steel, in steel pipes and drills, and other extreme high- or low-temperature applications, as well as to prevent corrosion, remains “difficult”, Loughrey said.

“The steel market needs to rebound some - we haven't seen much increase of late in the steel utilisation rates.

“And, we also need to see, in my mind, some loosening up of the finance market,” so that large industrial projects in the pipeline can start moving ahead, he said.

ACQUISITIONS

Loughrey repeated comments made earlier this year that the company is on the lookout for potential acquisitions, although it is under no pressure to complete a transaction.

He said on Wednesday the company would look first at pure molybdenum assets, but may also consider buy copper deposits, which would be a “natural extension”.

About one-half of the world's molybdenum is produced as a byproduct from other mines, mostly copper operations, and the mining methods for the two metals are similar.

Beyond that, the company may look “opportunistically” at other materials that are sold into the steel industry.

“It would not be a disadvantage to diversify in terms of more mines, more sources of revenue, and perhaps more metals in which we are involved,” he commented.

The firm would look first in North America, but would also consider investing in regions like South America and Australia, Loughrey told Mining Weekly Online.

Thompson Creek said on Monday it expects to produce and sell between 22-million and 26-million pounds of molybdenum this year from its mines in Idaho and British Columbia, up from previous guidance of 20-million to 24-million pounds.

Besides Endako, the company also produces molybdenum from the Thompson Creek mine, in Idaho, and owns a metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania.

Edited by: Liezel Hill

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/industry-needs-moly-pric…

[Videomart]

Canadian Mining Journal
Daily News Sunday, June 14, 2009

MOLYBDENUM MINING:
Thompson Creek boosts 2009 production numbers

BRITISH COLUMBIA — Thompson Creek Metals of Toronto is planning a 10% molybdenum production and sales boost in 2009 over levels previously announced, thanks to recent improvements in the market. The increase will be reached by shortening the planned summer shutdown to two weeks from four weeks.

Molybdenum oxide prices appear are on the upswing, nearing US$10 per pound, up from the recent US$8 low. But they are still a ways away from the US$40-high reached four years ago.

Moly production from the Endako mine in British Columbia is targeted at 8 million to 10.5 million lb this year. Cash production costs are to be in the range of US$6 to US$7 per pound, down 50 cents from the previous forecast. Thompson Creek owns a 75% interest in the Endako mine, and its partner is Sojitz Corp. of Japan.

Thompson Creek's wholly owned Thompson Creek moly mine in Idaho is expected to produce 16 million to 18 million lb of molybdenum at a cost of US$5.50 to US$6.50 per pound. The costs reflect plans to spend US$30 on stripping at this mine.

Information about molybdenum is posted at the company's website, www.ThompsonCreekMetals.com.

http://www.canadianminingjournal.com/issues/ISArticle.asp?ai…

[Videomart]

New Products and Processes for the Molybdenum Industry
http://www.steinbeis-europa.de/index.php5?file=196&show=1893…

[Videomart]

18.06.09

Tiefpunkt erreicht:
Molybdän-Preise unmittelbar vor Rebound

Besserung in Sicht: Der CEO des Minenkonzerns General Moly erwartet einen Rebound des Preises für das Spezialmetall. Allerdings keine Rückkehr zu den Hochs des vergangenen Jahres.

Der US-amerikanische Minenkonzern General Moly Inc (WKN A0M25Q) ist der Ansicht, dass der Markt für Molybdän kurz vor einem Rebound steht. Eine Wiederbelebung der Nachfrage und begrenztes neues Angebot sollten den Preis für das Metall, das unter anderem genutzt wird, um Stahl härter und korrosionsbeständig zu machen, 2012 auf ein neues Hoch treiben, erklärte Unternehmenschef Bruce Hansen.

Die Nachfrage nach dem Spezialmetall solle vor allem steigen, da niedrige Vorräte aufgefüllt werden müssten, China zum Importeur werde und die Konsumenten begännen, ihre Käufe zu erhöhen, so Hansen.

Auf der Angebotsseite sollte ein begrenztes Wachstum von Kupferminen mit Molybdän als Beiprodukt sowie Produktionskürzungen als Reaktion auf den bisherigen Nachfrageeinbruch sowohl bei Primärproduzenten als auch bei Firmen, die das Metall als Beiprodukt fördern, die Preise stützen, hieß es weiter. Es gäbe zudem derzeit keine neuen primären Molybdän-Minen, die sich in der Entwicklung befänden, so der General Moly CEO weiter.

Unter Berufung auf die durchschnittlichen Analystenprognosen erklärte Hansen, dass der Molybdänpreis 2011 oder 2012 zwischen 18 und 22 Dollar pro Pfund ihren Höhepunkt erreichen. Langfristig geht er von einer durchschnittlichen Preisspanne von 13 bis 15 Dollar je Pfund aus. Der Preis für Molybdänoxid stieg im Juni bis auf 10,25 Dollar pro Pfund nach einem Tief um die Marke von 8 Dollar im April, liegt damit aber immer noch weit unter dem Hoch von 2008 bei 34 Dollar pro Pfund.

General Moly erwartet von 2008 bis 2013 nur eine geringe jährliche Wachstumsrate von 0,4 Prozent beim Kupfer, wo ein Großteil des Molybdäns als Beiprodukt anfällt. Hansen ist der Ansicht, dass jetzt der richtige Zeitpunkt für Investitionen in Basismetalle gekommen sein könnte. Wenn der Tiefpunkt in der Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft noch nicht gekommen sei, dann stünde er aber wahrscheinlich kurz bevor.

http://goldinvest.de/public/story_detail.asp?l=&c=10,20020&i…

[Videomart]

19 Jun 2009
(Scotia China Update)
Export taxes for molybdenum oxide, hydroxide, molybdate, molybdenum powder, and unwrought molybdenum will be cut to 5% from 10%-15%. There is no mention of ferromolybdenum, so we assume its export tax will remain at 20%.
We observe that the cut will lower the feasible level for China's molybdenum exports. In our last report, we wrote that big Chinese molybdenum producers might be able to export some molybdenum at 13US$/lb; now, this number has had to be lowered to 12US$/lb.
This is slightly negative for the molybdenum sector...

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

[Videomart]

European molybdenum prices still climbing

SÃO PAULO (Metal-Pages) 02-Jul-09.
European molybdenum prices have climbed to their highest level since the first week of November, amid reports Chinese exporters are selling in Europe again, after a rush for material at the start of this year transformed China into a net importer.
Having dipped as low as $ 19.25-19.75/kg in April, duty-paid ferro-molybdenum is now changing hands for between $ 27.25-27.75/kg. “We sold 10 tonnes today at $ 27.75/kg for prompt in Rotterdam and 5 tonnes at $ 27.90/kg,” said one trader. “You cannot buy material below 27.50/kg,” said a second European trader.
The latest increase comes in the context of firmer prices in China, where molybdenum appears to have reacted, not only to higher concentrate costs, but also rising international prices. “There is still $ 1.50 difference, but it's closing the gap,” the second trader added.
“We are not quite there yet, I think we'll have to hit $ 30/kg and above to hit parity but it's getting closer,” said a third trader.
“Oxide, we sold at $ 11.40/lb yesterday and today it should be 20 cents higher,” said a second oxide trader.
A third oxide trader said it is surprising that prices continue to move up because Chinese buyers have halted their latest wave of of purchasing, preferring not to go any higher than $ 11/lb.
...

Quelle:
http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/40541/

[Videomart]

The TEX Report
14 July, 2009

Price Of Molybdenum Oxide Has Risen By 56% In Last 3 Months
= Focus Is Put On Time, When Major Moly Mines Recover Their Production

The market price of molybdenum oxide has been rising steeply. Molybdenum oxide had fallen its price to US$7.70 per lb. of Mo at the end April of 2009 and, then, bottomed out but suddenly rebounded to a level of US$10 from the beginning of June. The market price of molybdenum oxide as of the end of last week has risen by 56% to a level of US$11 - 12 per lb. of Mo compared with the bottom at the end of April as mentioned above.

The traders concerned had once viewed as US$12 per lb. of Mo would be the ceiling at moment but has now turned to be mentioning the continuity of this price level. An outlook for price of molybdenum oxide in the near future has been still on a firm tone and some of traders have an opinion that price of molybdenum oxide is anticipated to rise to US$18 per lb. of Mo by the end of this year.

For a reference, the prices (per lb. of Mo) of molybdenum oxide averaged on movements in the last 2 years were <> 2007 : US$30.60 and <> 2008 : US$29.50, but an analyst has insisted that the oxide price to be averaged on movements in the second half (July - December) of 2009 is thought to come to US$12 per lb. of Mo. Also, the market price of molybdenum oxide to be moved in 2010 is forecasted to be in the range of US$15 - 20 per lb. of Mo.

The supply situation of molybdenum in the western world has suddenly tightened and some of shippers have requested purchasers to accept the conditions as offered for shipments in August to September. Incidentally, JOGMEC of Japan will hold on the 16th of July a tender to purchase 300 tons of molybdenum on content base. Through this tender, it is marked to see how do molybdenum convertors and steel mills in Japan have really felt prices of molybdenum products for the future.

In consequence of that steel mills in Japan have implemented a substantial reduction in their production of special steels, they have held large quantities of molybdenum products as their excessive stocks. In order to decrease these stocks, steel companies in Japan once considered to participate in this tender but, in view of the suddenly and steeply risen prices of molybdenum products at present, it is opaque whether Japanese steel companies will make a bid for this tender or not.

The chemical specifications of molybdenum oxide to be sold by JOGMEC in this time are <> Mo 57.0% min. and <> Cu 0.20% max., which is a similar high grade material to that produced at Codelco of Chile, and a number of such bidders as blast furnace mills will be restricted. Also, since price of molybdenum oxide is anticipated to rise to a level of US$18 per lb. of Mo by the end of this year, in relation to the budget for this sale as already made up by JOGMEC, a possibility to turn to be an unsuccessful tender is becoming strong.

It is certain that China is the country, having stimulated price of molybdenum oxide. China is estimated to have imported approximately 25,000 tons in material of molybdenum oxide at discounted prices from the western countries in the first half (January - June) of 2009 but the Central Government of China has still maintained to impose the high duty of 15% on export of roasted molybdenum from China and announced on the end June of this year their policy, which keeps firmly their attitude to preserve natural resources in China.

By this announcement, market price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a remarkable extent and, even after the resumption of molybdenum production at Huludao area of Liaoning province has been accelerated, it is still forecasted that a pressure on supply of molybdenum from China to the western countries will be reduced considerably.

In view of the fact that price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a level of US$12 per lb. of Mo, molybdenum producers in North America have already commenced to loosen the structure to reduce their molybdenum production and, following Thompson Creek Metals which has decided to increase their molybdenum output by 4 - 6 million lbs. per annum, Freeport-McMoRan once announced in November of 2008 to decrease their molybdenum production by 10 million lbs. per annum but is now strongly anticipated to loosen this cutback.

last modified : Fri 17 Jul, 2009 [09:50]

http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/200907/20090…

[Videomart]

European molybdenum prices hum on ever-tighter supply

SÃO PAULO (Metal-Pages) 24-Jul-09.
Molybdenum products may have stayed within the same price range in the past few days, but the phones continue to ring for traders from buyers in search of increasingly tight supplies.
“There's almost no material in the market,” said one trader explaining that with western traders, having previously sold product to Asian consumers on a formula basis, they are now finding it hard to source it themselves. “It's very difficult to find material,” said a second trader reporting prices have varied widely. It means that now Asian companies are now finding it increasingly attractive to sell back to Europe, with the Europeans in turn selling it back to China, the first trader said adding:
“This merry-go-round business is keeping us busy,” though there is so not much from end-consumers.” ...
The hunt for material happens amid indications of renewed interest in the market from European steelmakers, with Italian buyers said to have been active earlier in the week.
It comes as prices in China are responding to surging concentrate prices and the strength of the western markets, while buyers in the United States are also having to dig deeper into their bank balances to obtain material.

http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/41012

[Videomart]

The Northern Miner, 8/7/2009

Thompson Creek to re-start Endako moly mine expansion

Vancouver - As the price of molybdenum shows ever stronger signs of life Thompson Creek Metals (TCM-T, TC-N) has emerged from cash conservation mode to put a major moly expansion project back on the front burner.
About eight months ago, after moly prices fell off the precipice from over US$30 per lb to under US$10 per lb, Thompson Creek announced heavy production cuts at its Thompson Creek and 75%-owned Endako mines (Sojitz, a Japanese company, owns the remaining 25% interest of Endako).

Before the price of moly collapsed Thompson Creek had forecast moly production at 32-34 million lbs. for 2009. But with the slip of base metal prices deepening as Christmas approached last year Thompson Creek slashed its forecast by a third to 20-24 million lbs. moly in 2009 (15-17 million lbs. moly at the Thompson Creek mine and 5-7 million lbs. moly at the Endako mine). To achieve those cuts it planned on shutting down both its mines for a month during the summer of 2009 and to reduce mill throughput to 70% at the Thompson Creek mine.
To bolster its savings and in anticipation of hard quarters to come, Thompson Creek also put its capital expenditure plans on hold at both the Davidson mine development where it planned to spend around US$109 million and Endako, where it was in the process of a US$280 million mill upgrade designed to nearly double production capacity.

But by June, 2009, as moly edged up above US$10 per lb. and some economic indicators showed a sustained economic recovery had begun, or at least that the worst was over, Thompson Creek nudged its 2009 production forecast up by 10% to 22-26 million lbs. moly.
To increase production the company said it would only close its mines for two weeks in July instead of the planned month-long hiatus. And now, with moly prices pushing above US$15 per lb, Thompsons Creek is adding to its rosier outlook on the moly market and says it wants to re-start the Endako expansion project, pending the approval of Sojitz.
As of June 30, 2009, Thompson Creek has already spent $52.9 million of its share of the expansion's capital costs - estimated at US$252 million - and now says it would spend an additional US$42 million this year. The expansion will decrease cash costs at the mine, which in the second quarter were US$4.94 per lb, and increase production from 28,000 tonnes per day to 50,000 tonnes per day.
Reserves at Endako, near Fraser Lake, B.C., are 276 million tonnes grading 0.051% moly or 0.085% MoS2. The expansion is slated for completion in 2011.

In the shorter term Thompson Creek also sees healthier profits returning. During the next six months it expects to get more than the average realized price of US$9.81 per lb moly it received in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2009 Thompson Creek managed to eke out a net income of US$10.8 million. One factor working against Thompson Creek as the price of moly improves, however, is the strengthening of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. In the first half of the year Thompson Creek lost US$3.9 million due to foreign exchange losses and all other things being equal in the second half of 2009, for every dime that the US dollar weakens Thompson Creek stands to lose US$7 million in net income.

On news of second quarter results and plans to re-start Endako Thompson Creek's share price lost 42¢ to $15.59. Thompson Creek has about 122.9 million shares outstanding.


Quelle:
http://www.northernminer.com

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek boss upbeat on Chinese demand, outlook

SÃO PAULO/NEW YORK (Metal-Pages) 10-Aug-09.
Thompson Creek Chairman & CEO Kevin Loughrey says the company expects to keep selling molybdenum to China this year, despite analysts fears smaller Chinese producers may be enticed back into the market with prices now above $15/kg.
Typically, before the onset of the global economic slowdown, Thompson Creek sold 75-80% of total volumes on contract, using monthly reference prices.
Previously, Thompson Creek sold about 50% of its molybdenum to North America, but began selling to China for the first time around Christmas. “We know that most of the customers we're selling to in China are buying for consumption and as far we can tell, not for stocking, whether that's happening elsewhere or not it's very difficult to say,” he said.
...
The gentle, more sustainable increase in demand currently taking place is preferable to an economic recovery characterised by sharp demand spikes Loughrey said, with increases in demand from stainless steels, to catalysts and various other alloy steel applications.
Loughrey said he expects the figure to rise, as steelmakers ratchet up production, after cutbacks that saw many plants running at half capacity because of the global economic slowdown.
“While we haven't made any announcement yet, we are looking hard at what our production level ought to be next year, whether we should keep it at the current level or increase it,” Loughrey said.
...
Thompson Creek last week announced a second quarter net loss of $ 400000 compared with net earnings of $ 60.4 million in the same period last year.
...

http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/41321/(Auszug)

[Videomart]

Is Thompson Creek Metals Facing M&A Activity?

by: FP Trading Desk, August 27, 2009

Molybdenum producer Thompson Creek Metals Co. (TC) announced a bought-deal financing on Tuesday worth C$217 million for development and expansion, but there may be other options for the company, including acquisitions.

The company announced plans to use the cash for development and expansion of existing mining assets, exploration, acquisitions, working capital, and general corporate purposes. The financing deal, at C$14 a share, can be further upsized to C$250 million and is expected to close on Sept. 16.

Blackmont analyst George Topping notes some capital will be spent on the Endako expansion in British Columbia, but should max out at about C$100-million and would be easily funded by existing cash flows.

"As Thompson Creek Metals already had C$262-million in cash as of June 30 and is expected to be strongly free cash flow positive in 2010 (about C$167 million), the raise could suggest management expects a pull-back in the moly price in near term or there may be an acquisition in the pipeline," Mr. Topping said in a note to clients Wednesday.

Good matches for the company include Mercator Minerals (MLKKF.PK) or a team-up with Quadra Mining (QADMF.PK) on its large Sierra Gorda project in Chile.

Meanwhile, neither a weaker moly price nor an M&A will help Blackmont's evaluation of the company's share price, which has been lowered slightly to C$16.80 from C$17.

Mr. Topping maintains a Sector Perform rating with average risk for Thompson Creek Metals


http://seekingalpha.com/article/158647-is-thompson-creek-met…

[Videomart]

PRICES COULD PEAK AT PRE-CRISIS LEVELS

Expect volatile Molybdenum prices -analyst

Chinese stock piling of the metal could see it drop as low as $10/lb and jump has high as $20/lb
Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009

SANTIAGO, (Reuters) -
The prices of molybdenum, a mineral used to strengthen steel, would face short-term volatility as top producer China turns into a key importer of the silvery metal, a Chilean expert said on Tuesday.
Molybdenum, which is obtained mostly as a byproduct of copper, has seen prices more than double to around $17 per pound in recent months, but still far from $34/lb highs reached in 2008.
Pablo Bascur, an industry consultant and former executive at world's top copper producer Codelco, says demand for molybdenum will likely pick up later this year and in 2010 as the worldwide financial storm eases.
However, China's heavy stockpiling seen this year could keep prices from finding their footing.
"I hold the view that we will continue to see high volatility in at least the next three quarters because this stockpiling will take some time," said Bascur in an interview.
"I believe we will have periods of very low prices at $10/lb, but I also don't rule out prices over $20/lb."
He said the metals' price could even peak to pre-crisis levels, but China will keep markets guessing with its rising molybdenum inventories.
Molybdenum prices could fall quickly if China's stocks are sold-off.
Bascur's company, MolyExp, posted a brief on its molybdenum market study at www.molyexp.com/.
Chile is one of the world's top producers of molybdenum that is used to make aircraft parts, electrical contacts and industrial motors.
Other industry analysts also have predicted a recovery in molybdenum prices on rising optimism about the speed of the global economic recovery.
Chilean government copper think tank Cochilco forecast prices for molybdenum at around 10/lb in 2009. (Reporting by Alonso Soto; Editing by Carol Bishopric)

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid…

[Videomart]

09.09.09

Verbesserte Aussichten für den Molybdänpreis:
Deutsche Bank stuft Thompson Creek auf "buy" hoch

Die Analysten der Deutschen Bank haben ihr Rating für die Aktie von Thompson Creek Metals (WKN A0MR6Q) von „halten“ auf „kaufen“ angehoben. Wie die Experten erklärten, sei man positiv für die weitere Molybdän-Entwicklung gestimmt, da sich angesichts neuer Anwendungen die Nachfrage verbessern sollte, das Angebotswachstumg unsicher sei und die teure Primärproduktion einen immer größeren Anteil am weltweiten Ausstoß einnehme.

Nach einem Absturz in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2008, habe sich der Ausblick für den Molybdänpreis in den ersten sechs Monaten 2009 gebessert, da die Produzenten sich diszipliniert gezeigt und die chinesischen Importe angehalten hätten. Dennoch hinke der Molydänpreis der Erholung anderer Metalle im Vergleich zu ihren 52-Wochenhochs immer noch hinter her.

Die Aktie von Thompson Creek konnte an der Heimatbörse in Kanada am Dienstag um fast 6 Prozent auf 13,70 CAD zulegen.

http://goldinvest.de/public/count_story.asp?url=story_detail…

[Aktienherr]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.958.723 von Videomart am 10.09.09 22:54:58

Na wie oft stuft die DB denn jetzt noch hoch?

[bobo75]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.958.974 von Aktienherr am 11.09.09 00:04:47

Überflüssig Deine Kommentare hier. Musst ja gewaltig short sein bei TCM. Riskantes Spielchen meiner Ansicht nach. Die Vergangenheit hat gezeigt, dass es die Perle immer wieder nach oben zieht. Fundamental kein Problem bei dieser Aktie.

[gehtwas]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.958.974 von Aktienherr am 11.09.09 00:04:47

Stahl zieht an- was machen die Veredler???


Riiischschschschtiiiig ziehen auch an

[Videomart]

Demand for 'Moly' Can Only Rise

by: Dr. Kris, September 15, 2009 | about: GMO / TC / XME

In last year’s Tax Day blog, “Good Golly Miss Moly,” I wrote about how molybdenum (aka Moly to industry insiders) would be a metal to watch in the coming years as it’s a major component in steel. As we know, steel is critical to building infrastructure and it’s also used heavily in the construction of nuclear power plants. The price of moly has been on a steady rise (except for last year’s credit crisis which tanked it along with the entire materials sector) due to the increasing steel capacity utilization rates in developing countries and improving steel capacity utilization rates in the developed nations. Over the past 50 years, annual moly growth has been averaging a steady 4%, but in 2007 that number jumped to 6.4% mainly due to increasing demand from China.

Now China is one of the world’s major moly producers but its appetite for the metal (and for pretty much everything else on the periodic table) has turned it into a moly importer (it now accounts for 25% of Thompson Creek’s sales) and one of the reasons why it’s been trying to partner with other miners.

Moly is commonly found along with copper so it’s natural that many companies that are principally engaged in copper mining also extract moly as a by-product. Companies that mine moly as a secondary ore are Freeport-McMoran (FCX), Rio Tinto (RTP), Southern Copper (PCU), and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Two US Moly Miners

As for those enterprises that mine moly as their principal ore, several are privately held. There are only two that trade publicly in this country: Thompson Creek (TC) and General Moly (GMO). Thompson Creek has been physically mining the metal while General Moly is still in the planning and permitting stages of developing its two mine areas. Their Mt. Hope project in Nevada is purported to be the largest and highest grade moly deposit in the world with 1.3 billion pounds of extractable ore. The company owns 80% of this project along with Posco (PKX) steel.

One big problem facing General Moly is that it’s going to need big bucks–on the order of $700 million–to actually get the ore out of the ground. How it’s going to accomplish that has been a matter of message board speculation.

According to rknapton commenting on the Motley Fool’s Caps board on 5/19/09: “Will they [GMO] trade off a further portion of thier [sic] interest in the project to fund this? Raise a lot of debt? Issue (and dilute) more shares? These are huge questions and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. But, with the current low prices for moly, I think the general outlook for this company is dismal -which is already fully reflected in the stock price. That is why I think it might be a good buying opportunity here. As soon as the infrastructure demand for steel gets back on track, moly, with its low inventory levels, should see a huge run up in price, and thus the moly producers such as TC (and GMO if they ever actually produce) will have a great run.”

Since this comment, the stocks of both companies have nearly doubled. However, there seems to have been some recent profit-taking in TC after it closed over $15 on August 1. Not so for GMO which broke $3 resistance only two days ago.

Barring a trade war with China, it’s possible to see speculators bid up General Moly to its next resistance area in the $5 to $5.20 region. If the company does receive its required financing at Street-acceptable terms, the stock could easily push past this level. For me to be a buyer of Thompson Creek, I’d need to see it resume its upward momentum and blow through the $15 level.

A safer, but less pure, play would be to buy the XME, the Metals & Mining ETF. All in all, current inventories of moly are at very low levels (estimated supply about one month) and unless the world sinks into another recession, demand for it can only rise.







http://seekingalpha.com/article/161548-demand-for-moly-can-o…

[Videomart]

Thompson Creek Kursziel 11 Euro - Prior Global
17.09.09 12:12

Frankfurt (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Experten von "Prior Global" sehen das Kursziel für die Thompson Creek-Aktie (ISIN CA8847681027/ WKN A0MR6Q) bei 11 Euro.

Thompson Creek zähle zu den weltweit größten Molybdän-Herstellern. Molybdän komme bei der Härtung und Veredelung von Stahl zum Einsatz. Insgesamt verfüge der Konzern über 1 Mrd. Tonne an Ressourcen des Metalls.

Sei im letzten Jahr noch ein Umsatzanstieg auf rund 1 Mrd. USD erzielt worden, dürfte dieser im laufenden Fiskaljahr um 65% einbrechen. Auch das Ergebnis sollte merklich unter dem Vorjahresniveau liegen, aber trotz der Wirtschaftsabkühlung schreibe die Gesellschaft noch schwarze Zahlen. Die Geschäfte würden aber wieder besser laufen und der Molybdänpreis sei wieder von 8 auf 15 USD je Pfund gestiegen.

Das Hauptprojekt des Konzerns sei die Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho. Diese könne noch die kommenden zehn Jahre ausgebeutet werden. Da die Kosten pro Pfund nur zwischen 5,50 und 6,50 USD lägen, könne das Unternehmen eine ansehnliche Marge erzielen.

Darüber hinaus betreibe Thompson Creek noch eine zweite Mine in British Columbia. Des Weiteren befänden sich zwei Projekte in einer Frühphase.

Auf mittlere Sicht halte man wieder einen Umsatz von 1 Mrd. USD für möglich. Vor diesem Hintergrund sei der cashbereinigte Börsenwert von 1,1 Mrd. USD akzeptabel, zumal es nur wenige Konkurrenten gebe.

Die Experten von "Prior Global" vergeben für die Thompson Creek-Aktie ein Kursziel von 11 Euro. (Ausgabe 35 vom 17.09.2009) (17.09.2009/ac/a/a)

http://www.stock-world.de/nachrichten/aktien/3077323-Thompso…

[Aktienherr]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert.

[Videomart]

MOLYBDENUM
Cash-flush Thompson Creek in pursuit of acquisitions

By: Liezel Hill
6th November 2009

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Denver-based molybdenum producer Thompson Creek Metals is determined to put its sizeable cash balance to work in acquiring a near-production asset “as soon as possible”, although it may have to wait a bit for asset prices to fall in line with what the company is willing to pay, CEO Kevin Loughrey said on Friday.

Thompson Creek has spent this year evaluating a number of potential targets, while refining its own shopping list for the type of asset that would be a good fit, he said in an interview.

“But all of that ultimately becomes dependent on price,” he added.

“And we have a sense that there are still people out there who haven't awoken to the new reality, which is that prices have moved off their highs.”

Loughrey said his ideal target would be a molybdenum property in North America, which has the potential to be generating revenue within the next couple of years.

Unfortunately, the list of companies or assets that fit the bill is not a long one, so the firm is also looking beyond that, to jurisdictions like South America or Australia, as well as to other metals – copper, which is frequently produced together with molybdenum, is an obvious candidate.

After stingily conserving cash this year, then raising almost $200-million in a bought-deal offering during the third quarter, Thompson Creek ended the period with $478,2-million in cash equivalents and short term investments, and just $14,3-million in debt.

The company does have internal uses for some of the cash – it is expanding the mill at one of its two mines – and, predictably, receives a lot of hints from analysts and investors that the money could be used for a dividend or share buyback programme.

But Loughrey is adamant that, together with investment in the company's own assets, the “war chest” will be best spent on an accretive acquisition.

“And I think there are opportunities out there that we will find in the relatively near term,” he said.

He declined to comment on when the company might be ready to unveil a deal.

BOTTOMED OUT?

The price of molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel, was still trading at around $32/lb into the third quarter of last year, when it fell off sharply, thanks to the severe slowdown in global infrastructure development and general economic activity.

By April this year, prices had fallen as low as $8/lb, before the market started firming, to reach about $18/lb during the northern hemisphere summer.

It dipped again in the third quarter, to the $10/lb level, but has started rising again, nearing $11/lb, and there is “fair reason” to believe that the $10 point will be the bottom for the next little while, Loughrey said.

“I think it is a reasonable expectation that that is going to represent the bottom."

A key change in the molybdenum market this year is that China, which had historically been a net exporter of the metal, imported significant amounts of moly in the first half of the year.

Loughrey said the level of interest from China has fallen off as the year progressed, with sales to the resource-hungry nation representing about only 15% of Thompson Creek's business in the year to date, compared with as much as 25% in the first quarter.

“At $18/lb in the summer the Chinese buying seemed to fade away. So I think much of the activity in China is price related,” he commented.

However, as the price goes up, there are smaller producers in China that bring production online, which means the Chinese have the capability to satisfy more of their own market.

This “swing” production seems to come on and off at around the $13/lb or $14/lb price range, he said.

Thompson Creek mines molybdenum from its Thompson Creek mine, in Idaho, and the Endako mine, in British Columbia. It also has a metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania.

The company said on Thursday it expects to produce between 24-million pounds and 26-million pounds this year, while output in 2010 is forecast at between 29-million pound and 32-million pounds.

It also announced this week it will ramp up operations at its Thompson Creek mill, in Idaho, to full capacity from January 2010, in response to the improved outlook for molybdenum market fundamentals.

The mill is currently running at 78% of full capacity, after operations were curtailed earlier this year as a response to sharply lower molybdenum prices.

Thompson Creek shares rose 8,6% on Friday, to C$12,74 apiece by 15:12 in Toronto.

Edited by: Liezel Hill


http://www.miningweekly.com/article/cash-flush-thompson-cree…

[Videomart]

31 Oct 2009
Molybdenum producers and developers have been on a roller coaster ride for the past year
By: Rex Loesby, special to The Northern Miner
http://maximumprofit.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/molybdenum-pro…

2 Nov 2009
Moly markets: China uncertainty dominates (part 2)
By: Rex Loesby, special to The Northern Miner
http://agoracom.com/ir/bardventures/forums/discussion/topics…
www.northernminer.com/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000346313