PANCONTINENTAL OIL - Projekte in Australien, Kenya, Malta, Marocco und Namibia (Seite 109)
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Moin....
Das wurde ja auch mal Zeit nach dem rumgedattel.
Die 0.10 durchbrochen.
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Das wurde ja auch mal Zeit nach dem rumgedattel.
Die 0.10 durchbrochen.
Gibts was Neues?
2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays
by Jen Alic
|
OilPrice.com
|
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We're looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK's Tullow Oil and Canada's Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They're still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.
Bakken, North Dakota
The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the US for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the US has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn't seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.
Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewa and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken Shale Play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Geological Survey. That's the modest estimate. Continental Resources—one of the major Bakken players—estimates as much as 40 billion barrels.
The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn't really been tapped at all.
Eagle Ford, South Texas
Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It's one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).
Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.
So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It's already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).
The biggest producer is EOG Resources, putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.
Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.
Mediterranean Plays
The Levant Basin in the Mediterranean has an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and around 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And the area has seen a flurry of activity recently.
Between 25 and 33 billion cubic feet of this gas is in Israeli waters. The rest is carved up between Greek-held Northern Cyprus (which is a bit problematic), Syria and Lebanon.
Of course, along with this potential comes some uncomfortable geopolitics; on one hand among Israel, Lebanon and Syria; on the other hand between Israel, Turkey and the Greek Cypriots.
The first new natural gas field in the region is expected to begin full-scale production this year, with two additional fields coming on-line over the next six years.
Specifically, we're talking about:
•The discovery to two offshore natural gas fields in northern Israel (Leviathan and Tamar) with an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet (about 100 years year of gas for Israeli domestic use)
•Estimates that Israel has a potential 1.9 billion barrels of untapped oil
•About 5-6 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field claimed by Greek-held Northern Cyprus (just west of Israel's Leviathan field)
Exploitation will be a bit expensive, though. Israel's offshore fields are located 100 kilometers from the coast and in 6,000 feet of water. The natural gas is some 5,000 feet under the sea bed.
Offshore Tanzania & Mozambique
Tanzania has become a gas sensation in a very short time, with recent offshore discoveries of some 33 trillion cubic feet.
Sweetening the deal, we have political stability and low security risk, relatively speaking, as well as an existing 70-million-cubic-feet/day capacity for natural gas processing. More gas infrastructure is in the works.
Next door, Mozambique's 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in its offshore Rovuma Basin is eye candy for foreign investors, and officials believe there is double this amount still waiting to be discovered. It's not as attractive as Tanzania for one reason: There is no infrastructure.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=122948
by Jen Alic
|
OilPrice.com
|
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We're looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK's Tullow Oil and Canada's Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They're still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.
Bakken, North Dakota
The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the US for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the US has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn't seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.
Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewa and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken Shale Play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Geological Survey. That's the modest estimate. Continental Resources—one of the major Bakken players—estimates as much as 40 billion barrels.
The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn't really been tapped at all.
Eagle Ford, South Texas
Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It's one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).
Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.
So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It's already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).
The biggest producer is EOG Resources, putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.
Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.
Mediterranean Plays
The Levant Basin in the Mediterranean has an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and around 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And the area has seen a flurry of activity recently.
Between 25 and 33 billion cubic feet of this gas is in Israeli waters. The rest is carved up between Greek-held Northern Cyprus (which is a bit problematic), Syria and Lebanon.
Of course, along with this potential comes some uncomfortable geopolitics; on one hand among Israel, Lebanon and Syria; on the other hand between Israel, Turkey and the Greek Cypriots.
The first new natural gas field in the region is expected to begin full-scale production this year, with two additional fields coming on-line over the next six years.
Specifically, we're talking about:
•The discovery to two offshore natural gas fields in northern Israel (Leviathan and Tamar) with an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet (about 100 years year of gas for Israeli domestic use)
•Estimates that Israel has a potential 1.9 billion barrels of untapped oil
•About 5-6 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field claimed by Greek-held Northern Cyprus (just west of Israel's Leviathan field)
Exploitation will be a bit expensive, though. Israel's offshore fields are located 100 kilometers from the coast and in 6,000 feet of water. The natural gas is some 5,000 feet under the sea bed.
Offshore Tanzania & Mozambique
Tanzania has become a gas sensation in a very short time, with recent offshore discoveries of some 33 trillion cubic feet.
Sweetening the deal, we have political stability and low security risk, relatively speaking, as well as an existing 70-million-cubic-feet/day capacity for natural gas processing. More gas infrastructure is in the works.
Next door, Mozambique's 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in its offshore Rovuma Basin is eye candy for foreign investors, and officials believe there is double this amount still waiting to be discovered. It's not as attractive as Tanzania for one reason: There is no infrastructure.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=122948
Ich habe auch mal was gefunden
ubmitted by Jen Alic of OilPrice.com,
2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We’re looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK’s Tullow Oil and Canada’s Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They’re still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.
Bakken, North Dakota
The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the US for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the US has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn’t seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.
Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewa and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken Shale Play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Geological Survey. That’s the modest estimate. Continental Resources—one of the major Bakken players—estimates as much as 40 billion barrels.
The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn’t really been tapped at all.
Eagle Ford, South Texas
Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It’s one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).
Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.
So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It’s already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).
The biggest producer is EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.
Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.
Mediterranean Plays
The Levant Basin in the Mediterranean has an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and around 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And the area has seen a flurry of activity recently.
Between 25 and 33 billion cubic feet of this gas is in Israeli waters. The rest is carved up between Greek-held Northern Cyprus (which is a bit problematic), Syria and Lebanon.
Of course, along with this potential comes some uncomfortable geopolitics; on one hand among Israel, Lebanon and Syria; on the other hand between Israel, Turkey and the Greek Cypriots.
The first new natural gas field in the region is expected to begin full-scale production this year, with two additional fields coming on-line over the next six years.
Specifically, we’re talking about:
• The discovery to two offshore natural gas fields in northern Israel (Leviathan and Tamar) with an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet (about 100 years year of gas for Israeli domestic use)
• Estimates that Israel has a potential 1.9 billion barrels of untapped oil
• About 5-6 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field claimed by Greek-held Northern Cyprus (just west of Israel’s Leviathan field)
Exploitation will be a bit expensive, though. Israel’s offshore fields are located 100 kilometers from the coast and in 6,000 feet of water. The natural gas is some 5,000 feet under the sea bed.
Offshore Tanzania & Mozambique
Tanzania has become a gas sensation in a very short time, with recent offshore discoveries of some 33 trillion cubic feet.
Sweetening the deal, we have political stability and low security risk, relatively speaking, as well as an existing 70-million-cubic-feet/day capacity for natural gas processing. More gas infrastructure is in the works.
Next door, Mozambique’s 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in its offshore Rovuma Basin is eye candy for foreign investors, and officials believe there is double this amount still waiting to be discovered. It’s not as attractive as Tanzania f
ubmitted by Jen Alic of OilPrice.com,
2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We’re looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK’s Tullow Oil and Canada’s Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They’re still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.
Bakken, North Dakota
The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the US for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the US has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn’t seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.
Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewa and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken Shale Play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Geological Survey. That’s the modest estimate. Continental Resources—one of the major Bakken players—estimates as much as 40 billion barrels.
The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn’t really been tapped at all.
Eagle Ford, South Texas
Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It’s one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).
Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.
So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It’s already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).
The biggest producer is EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.
Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.
Mediterranean Plays
The Levant Basin in the Mediterranean has an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and around 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And the area has seen a flurry of activity recently.
Between 25 and 33 billion cubic feet of this gas is in Israeli waters. The rest is carved up between Greek-held Northern Cyprus (which is a bit problematic), Syria and Lebanon.
Of course, along with this potential comes some uncomfortable geopolitics; on one hand among Israel, Lebanon and Syria; on the other hand between Israel, Turkey and the Greek Cypriots.
The first new natural gas field in the region is expected to begin full-scale production this year, with two additional fields coming on-line over the next six years.
Specifically, we’re talking about:
• The discovery to two offshore natural gas fields in northern Israel (Leviathan and Tamar) with an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet (about 100 years year of gas for Israeli domestic use)
• Estimates that Israel has a potential 1.9 billion barrels of untapped oil
• About 5-6 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field claimed by Greek-held Northern Cyprus (just west of Israel’s Leviathan field)
Exploitation will be a bit expensive, though. Israel’s offshore fields are located 100 kilometers from the coast and in 6,000 feet of water. The natural gas is some 5,000 feet under the sea bed.
Offshore Tanzania & Mozambique
Tanzania has become a gas sensation in a very short time, with recent offshore discoveries of some 33 trillion cubic feet.
Sweetening the deal, we have political stability and low security risk, relatively speaking, as well as an existing 70-million-cubic-feet/day capacity for natural gas processing. More gas infrastructure is in the works.
Next door, Mozambique’s 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in its offshore Rovuma Basin is eye candy for foreign investors, and officials believe there is double this amount still waiting to be discovered. It’s not as attractive as Tanzania f
13/12/2012 Morning Note
Pancontinental (PCL) – Is it too Obvious?
Sometimes we cannot see the forest for the trees. In the case of PCL, we believe that the market has focused too much on the detail (or lack thereof) in relation to the Mbawa discovery well drilled a few months ago. The available detail being a small gas discovery at one of several prospective horizons when the expectation was large oil. The bigger picture that has been missed, in our view, is:
• This is a first up discovery in virgin territory and the first ever discovery offshore Kenya
• Reservoir quality is excellent
• Type II kerogen source rock mature for generation of gas and oil. This means that oil has been generated in the system and now the Apache led joint venture is tasked with determining where it is
• The deeper horizon was not intersected meaning that prospectivity at this level remains
The upshot of all of this is that a worst case scenario will be discovery of significant quantities of gas offshore Kenya over the next two years, with an upside case that includes oil. Majors and internationally renowned explorers such as Apache, Tullow, BG and Anadarko all believe in the oil story based on interpretation of likely differences in maturity of the source rock offshore Kenya vs that offshore Tanzania and Mozambique where large gas discoveries have been made with stunning success in recent years.
Given that drilling is about to commence again offshore Kenya we would expect that once this news penetrates the market, the share price should start to appreciate. Anadarko has announced, via the Kenyan Ministry of Energy, that it will be drilling two wells in blocks adjacent to PCL’s interests offshore Kenya, commencing in December. BG and Apache also have plans to drill multiple wells in 2013, for which PCL will have direct exposure through its ownership in blocks L8, L10A and L10B. A farm-out of PCL’s L6 block could also provide a catalyst.
Additionally, HRT will be drilling a well in a permit adjacent to PCL’s acreage offshore Namibia, where analysis has detected a strong incidence of surface seeps. This will is scheduled for spud in February 2013. Recent drilling offshore Namibia has not yielded commercial results; however, this well will be the first in the Walvis Basin, where the source rock is thought to be in the oil window in present day.
It is also likely that we will see an independent certified update on prospective resources across all or part of the portfolio. This has been an effective value creator for many other junior explorers.
PCL has cash at bank of A$39m so is fully funded for the forward work program and with an Enterprise Value of A$55m, it is comparatively cheap to other explorers that do not have proof through drilling of an active petroleum system, seal and reservoir. Risk has been decreased (but is still present – this is exploration after all), the upside remains intact and the share price has declined. This, in our view, defines the opportunity.
We do not officially cover PCL so there is no recommendation or price target but we would be surprised if the share price did not double over the next few months on speculation alone. Given that we believe that additional discoveries are likely offshore Kenya, we also can see a strong likelihood of a sharply higher share price by this time next year.
Disclosure: the analyst has a beneficial interest in the shares of PCL
http://www.argonaut.com/news/morning-notes/844-13-12-2012-mo…
Pancontinental (PCL) – Is it too Obvious?
Sometimes we cannot see the forest for the trees. In the case of PCL, we believe that the market has focused too much on the detail (or lack thereof) in relation to the Mbawa discovery well drilled a few months ago. The available detail being a small gas discovery at one of several prospective horizons when the expectation was large oil. The bigger picture that has been missed, in our view, is:
• This is a first up discovery in virgin territory and the first ever discovery offshore Kenya
• Reservoir quality is excellent
• Type II kerogen source rock mature for generation of gas and oil. This means that oil has been generated in the system and now the Apache led joint venture is tasked with determining where it is
• The deeper horizon was not intersected meaning that prospectivity at this level remains
The upshot of all of this is that a worst case scenario will be discovery of significant quantities of gas offshore Kenya over the next two years, with an upside case that includes oil. Majors and internationally renowned explorers such as Apache, Tullow, BG and Anadarko all believe in the oil story based on interpretation of likely differences in maturity of the source rock offshore Kenya vs that offshore Tanzania and Mozambique where large gas discoveries have been made with stunning success in recent years.
Given that drilling is about to commence again offshore Kenya we would expect that once this news penetrates the market, the share price should start to appreciate. Anadarko has announced, via the Kenyan Ministry of Energy, that it will be drilling two wells in blocks adjacent to PCL’s interests offshore Kenya, commencing in December. BG and Apache also have plans to drill multiple wells in 2013, for which PCL will have direct exposure through its ownership in blocks L8, L10A and L10B. A farm-out of PCL’s L6 block could also provide a catalyst.
Additionally, HRT will be drilling a well in a permit adjacent to PCL’s acreage offshore Namibia, where analysis has detected a strong incidence of surface seeps. This will is scheduled for spud in February 2013. Recent drilling offshore Namibia has not yielded commercial results; however, this well will be the first in the Walvis Basin, where the source rock is thought to be in the oil window in present day.
It is also likely that we will see an independent certified update on prospective resources across all or part of the portfolio. This has been an effective value creator for many other junior explorers.
PCL has cash at bank of A$39m so is fully funded for the forward work program and with an Enterprise Value of A$55m, it is comparatively cheap to other explorers that do not have proof through drilling of an active petroleum system, seal and reservoir. Risk has been decreased (but is still present – this is exploration after all), the upside remains intact and the share price has declined. This, in our view, defines the opportunity.
We do not officially cover PCL so there is no recommendation or price target but we would be surprised if the share price did not double over the next few months on speculation alone. Given that we believe that additional discoveries are likely offshore Kenya, we also can see a strong likelihood of a sharply higher share price by this time next year.
Disclosure: the analyst has a beneficial interest in the shares of PCL
http://www.argonaut.com/news/morning-notes/844-13-12-2012-mo…
Trading Spotlight
Heute Nacht wurden in Australien über 4 Mio. Aktien gehandelt. Der Schlusskurs war bei 0.092. Warum wird das hier im Chart nicht angezeigt?
Moin Moin,
Pancontinental’s CEO Barry Rushworth says the
Australian company is chasing an oil prospect in
its EL 0037 license, covering some 17, 295 sq
km in the Walvis basin. To support a potential oil
find, a “bulls-eye” of interpreted naturally
occurring oil slicks has been seen in the license.
http://platts.com/IM.Platts.Content%5Caboutplatts%5Cmediacen…
Ganz unten Seite 4
Gruß
Fliege
Pancontinental’s CEO Barry Rushworth says the
Australian company is chasing an oil prospect in
its EL 0037 license, covering some 17, 295 sq
km in the Walvis basin. To support a potential oil
find, a “bulls-eye” of interpreted naturally
occurring oil slicks has been seen in the license.
http://platts.com/IM.Platts.Content%5Caboutplatts%5Cmediacen…
Ganz unten Seite 4
Gruß
Fliege
Moin Moin,
liest sich doch alles super!
Wir müssen halt nur noch etwas Geduld mitbringen.
Schönes WE
liest sich doch alles super!
Wir müssen halt nur noch etwas Geduld mitbringen.
Schönes WE
Hier zwei Dokumente zur AGM letzte Nacht:
H. David Kennedy's (Chairman) Adress to the AGM: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121130/pdf/42bmygsq74nx73.pdf
daraus:
I think so, too!
AGM Presentation: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121130/pdf/42bmyycydnm8sb.pdf
Gruß und schönes Wochenende,
tnzs
H. David Kennedy's (Chairman) Adress to the AGM: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121130/pdf/42bmygsq74nx73.pdf
daraus:
The technical analyses from several portions of the drilled section (es geht um Mbawa) indicate to our staff that oil as well as gas should have been generated, and that there is a significant probability that substantial oil discoveries will be made elsewhere within Pancontinental’s licences, if not within other portions of the Mbawa structure itself.
recommendation of the future program for the block (Mbawa) is expected in Q1 2013.
in the very near term, shareholders can expect to benefit from at least two nearby wells to be drilled by Anadarko as operator, the first to be spudded in December 2012.
In Namibia .. some benefit from four wells which have been announced by Brazilian company HRT, the first to be drilled as early as February 2013. Two of these wells are immediately adjacent to Pancontinental’s licence area. Two additional wells are also expected to be drilled offshore Namibia by another company in 2013, probably bringing the total of the year to six.
It should be an exciting year!
I think so, too!
AGM Presentation: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121130/pdf/42bmyycydnm8sb.pdf
Gruß und schönes Wochenende,
tnzs
YouTube Video:
Gil Holzman, President & CEO of Eco Atlantic, interviewed by Proactive Investor UK
"Eco Oil & Gas's Holzman says Namibia is one of the last great oil frontiers"
http://ecooilandgas.com/investors/media/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://ecooilandgas.com/investors/media/
ECO ist einer unserer unmittelbaren Nachbarn offshore Namibia.
Gruß von
tnzs
Gil Holzman, President & CEO of Eco Atlantic, interviewed by Proactive Investor UK
"Eco Oil & Gas's Holzman says Namibia is one of the last great oil frontiers"
http://ecooilandgas.com/investors/media/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://ecooilandgas.com/investors/media/
ECO ist einer unserer unmittelbaren Nachbarn offshore Namibia.
Gruß von
tnzs
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