Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 190)
eröffnet am 23.06.11 21:04:25 von
neuester Beitrag 28.04.24 15:36:08 von
neuester Beitrag 28.04.24 15:36:08 von
Beiträge: 4.121
ID: 1.167.139
ID: 1.167.139
Aufrufe heute: 2
Gesamt: 628.769
Gesamt: 628.769
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: CA00829Q1019 · WKN: A0MZJC · Symbol: AOI
1,6400
EUR
+0,31 %
+0,0050 EUR
Letzter Kurs 09.05.24 Tradegate
Werte aus der Branche Öl/Gas
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 4,8050 | +39,52 | |
| 1,2760 | +37,95 | |
| 1,1500 | +27,78 | |
| 1,0400 | +18,18 | |
| 8,2500 | +16,36 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 2,4000 | -9,43 | |
| 2,0500 | -9,69 | |
| 850,20 | -12,51 | |
| 11,790 | -12,67 | |
| 1,5450 | -19,32 |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Feedback
Nicht viel los zur Zeit. Hier ein Artikel, gefunden auf stockhouse:
--------------
Time Running Out to Grab Juniors in Kenya Before They Make Huge Gains
April 29, 2013
Investors: Time may be running out to grab juniors in Kenya before they make their huge gains.
The region’s biggest players and fastest movers are gearing up for a flurry of activity over the next 6 months. A number of catalysts about to happen in East Africa could set off a sea change in valuations, as the full-scale development of the Anza Basin begins to take shape.
Regional catalysts in the coming four months:
Major farm-out agreement–Taipan Resources
Spudding of Bahasi-1—Africa Oil
Optimization of Twiga South-1—Africa Oil/Tullow
Further testing on Ngamia-1—Africa Oil/Tullow
1. Taipan farm-out—Q2-Q3 2013:
Last summer Africa Oil [AOI:CA] announced the signing of a farmout deal worth $78 million on Block 9 with US giant Marathon Oil [MRO:NYSE].
This year, the market is curious about the adjacent Block 2B, which is held 100% by Taipan Resources [TPN:CA], and is actively being shopped for a partner. Who that will be with, and what value that deal will come with is still up in the air.
When these farmout deals are done, the major producer coming into the play usually pays all previous exploration dollars, and carries the junior through any remaining seismic and 1-2 wells.
That would put Taipan trading at or under its cash value, which is almost always the best time to get in on a junior.
In the meantime, Taipan has been fulfilling all of its commitments through completing its 439 sq km seismic program, all while keeping its gaze on neighboring Block 9. The Africa Oil/Marathon duo is quite active, and will provide further data for Taipan and its speculators in the market to consider when tallying its new valuation.
The most recent NI 51-101 compliant resource estimate on Taipan’s Block 2B from Sproule International estimates an unrisked prospective resource of 387 million barrels. Coming from 17 leads, with prospects ranging in size from 2.5 million barrels to 128 million barrels, with potential for multiple stacked horizons.
Recently the company announced that it has wrapped up the first phase of the exploration period. In doing so, they have effectively competed what was to be a 3-year work program, in only 8 months. It is expected that Taipan will soon announce the initiation of an additional exploration period that will include the drilling of its first well.
2. Spudding of Bahasi-1 (formerly “Kinyonga”)—Q3 2013:
Scheduled to spud in Q3 2013, the upcoming Bahasi-1 well is expected to be a huge boost to the Africa Oil/Marathon partnership, as well as for their neighbors. Drilling both tertiary and cretaceous rock, the goal of Bahasi to target a structure believed to be 60 metres in thickness.
From a geological perspective, the play has what it takes to be big: it’s a large anticlinal structure, trapped by a 4-way closure, which keeps the hydrocarbons they are targeting in place.
But the true excitement regarding the play’s potential comes from the fact that over 6 billion barrels of oil have been discovered along trend in Sudan, under very similar geologic conditions.
This is one of, if not THE biggest target being drilled onshore in East Africa this year, and would provide a regional catalyst for all players, says Adam Zive, a director of Taipan Resources.
“I think the potential analogue that the market is probably not appreciating enough is particularly this Bahasi-1 well on Block 9 right beside us,” says Zive. According to Africa Oil’s presentation, this prospect has a best estimate of 320 million barrels and a high estimate of 656 million barrels.
3. Ngamia-1 Well: Testing—Q3 2013:
Bahasi-1’s multiple-horizon potential mimics that of Africa Oil’s other well, Ngamia-1 which was drilled with AOI’s other partner, Tullow. Located to the west of Block 9 in Block 10BB, Ngamia presents plenty of potential. After already proving the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone formation, up next will be 5 more tests into the Auwerwer sandstone formation. The partnership believes that the Auwerwer has a higher quality reservoir than the Lower Lokhone, and the results from the tests are expected in less than three months.
4. Twiga South-1: Increase Production—Q3 2013:
Africa Oil is counting on Ngamia’s entry into the Auwerwer zones to provide closer results to those found in their Twiga South-1 well, also with partner Tullow. This well was much bigger; testing for a combined rate of 2,812 barrels per day of 37 API oil from three Auwerwer zones.
Twiga is actually considered to be an underperforming well. Unfit surface equipment that was initially set in place is believed to be choking off the well’s true potential, and the partnership has stated that, “with optimized equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bbls/d.”
That’s what the market wants to see—5,000 bopd + production from these frontier plays. Just getting the right equipment in place should make this happen. As Africa Oil and Tullow iron out the kinks, the entire play benefits.
As well, the partnership is re-entering the Block with another well in the first half of May, with its Etuko-1 well.
In this part of the world, especially with wells costing upwards of $15 million, it’s incredibly valuable to mitigate risk ahead of time. Observing your neighbors as they break new ground can make all the difference.
Heading north to south down the east coast of Kenya, Africa Oil is active in Block 9, then Taipan in the middle in Block 2B and junior Vanoil [VLE:CA] is also set to spud its first well on Block 3A to the immediate south of Block 2B.
Much like Africa Oil’s Paipai-1 well located on Block 10A, Vanoil’s well will be specifically targeting cretaceous rock. Located at a deeper depth, the cretaceous presents a higher-pressure zone that Vanoil says is in the oil window. These predictions come from the positive results that Paipai delivered, which encountered 55m thick hydrocarbon shows.
Both Taipan and Vanoil are set to benefit from planned infrastructure in the play. Vanoil already has plenty of roads crisscrossing its block, but for both companies the biggest benefit is that of proposed pipelines that come through their vicinity.
“There are a number of pipeline routes that are under discussion right now, but the ones that are the most likely are about 175 kilometers to the south of our block,” says Zive, as the Taipan team postures itself for future production. “But either way, even without a pipeline being built, we can truck oil out when the time comes after a potential discovery.”
Before either junior realizes its commercial potential, many eyes will be on the neighboring projects of Africa Oil and its partners. Investors from the United States will especially be intrigued by the projects involving Marathon, as it would be the first US-based Kenyan oil success story.
The landscape of Kenya’s oil story is set to make a big change, with several near term catalysts. The opportunity window for juniors in the region is closing fast, and the potential is about to be realized. It’s going to be an exciting six months.
http://thehydrocarbon.com/2013/04/29/time-running-out-to-gra…
--------------
Time Running Out to Grab Juniors in Kenya Before They Make Huge Gains
April 29, 2013
Investors: Time may be running out to grab juniors in Kenya before they make their huge gains.
The region’s biggest players and fastest movers are gearing up for a flurry of activity over the next 6 months. A number of catalysts about to happen in East Africa could set off a sea change in valuations, as the full-scale development of the Anza Basin begins to take shape.
Regional catalysts in the coming four months:
Major farm-out agreement–Taipan Resources
Spudding of Bahasi-1—Africa Oil
Optimization of Twiga South-1—Africa Oil/Tullow
Further testing on Ngamia-1—Africa Oil/Tullow
1. Taipan farm-out—Q2-Q3 2013:
Last summer Africa Oil [AOI:CA] announced the signing of a farmout deal worth $78 million on Block 9 with US giant Marathon Oil [MRO:NYSE].
This year, the market is curious about the adjacent Block 2B, which is held 100% by Taipan Resources [TPN:CA], and is actively being shopped for a partner. Who that will be with, and what value that deal will come with is still up in the air.
When these farmout deals are done, the major producer coming into the play usually pays all previous exploration dollars, and carries the junior through any remaining seismic and 1-2 wells.
That would put Taipan trading at or under its cash value, which is almost always the best time to get in on a junior.
In the meantime, Taipan has been fulfilling all of its commitments through completing its 439 sq km seismic program, all while keeping its gaze on neighboring Block 9. The Africa Oil/Marathon duo is quite active, and will provide further data for Taipan and its speculators in the market to consider when tallying its new valuation.
The most recent NI 51-101 compliant resource estimate on Taipan’s Block 2B from Sproule International estimates an unrisked prospective resource of 387 million barrels. Coming from 17 leads, with prospects ranging in size from 2.5 million barrels to 128 million barrels, with potential for multiple stacked horizons.
Recently the company announced that it has wrapped up the first phase of the exploration period. In doing so, they have effectively competed what was to be a 3-year work program, in only 8 months. It is expected that Taipan will soon announce the initiation of an additional exploration period that will include the drilling of its first well.
2. Spudding of Bahasi-1 (formerly “Kinyonga”)—Q3 2013:
Scheduled to spud in Q3 2013, the upcoming Bahasi-1 well is expected to be a huge boost to the Africa Oil/Marathon partnership, as well as for their neighbors. Drilling both tertiary and cretaceous rock, the goal of Bahasi to target a structure believed to be 60 metres in thickness.
From a geological perspective, the play has what it takes to be big: it’s a large anticlinal structure, trapped by a 4-way closure, which keeps the hydrocarbons they are targeting in place.
But the true excitement regarding the play’s potential comes from the fact that over 6 billion barrels of oil have been discovered along trend in Sudan, under very similar geologic conditions.
This is one of, if not THE biggest target being drilled onshore in East Africa this year, and would provide a regional catalyst for all players, says Adam Zive, a director of Taipan Resources.
“I think the potential analogue that the market is probably not appreciating enough is particularly this Bahasi-1 well on Block 9 right beside us,” says Zive. According to Africa Oil’s presentation, this prospect has a best estimate of 320 million barrels and a high estimate of 656 million barrels.
3. Ngamia-1 Well: Testing—Q3 2013:
Bahasi-1’s multiple-horizon potential mimics that of Africa Oil’s other well, Ngamia-1 which was drilled with AOI’s other partner, Tullow. Located to the west of Block 9 in Block 10BB, Ngamia presents plenty of potential. After already proving the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone formation, up next will be 5 more tests into the Auwerwer sandstone formation. The partnership believes that the Auwerwer has a higher quality reservoir than the Lower Lokhone, and the results from the tests are expected in less than three months.
4. Twiga South-1: Increase Production—Q3 2013:
Africa Oil is counting on Ngamia’s entry into the Auwerwer zones to provide closer results to those found in their Twiga South-1 well, also with partner Tullow. This well was much bigger; testing for a combined rate of 2,812 barrels per day of 37 API oil from three Auwerwer zones.
Twiga is actually considered to be an underperforming well. Unfit surface equipment that was initially set in place is believed to be choking off the well’s true potential, and the partnership has stated that, “with optimized equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bbls/d.”
That’s what the market wants to see—5,000 bopd + production from these frontier plays. Just getting the right equipment in place should make this happen. As Africa Oil and Tullow iron out the kinks, the entire play benefits.
As well, the partnership is re-entering the Block with another well in the first half of May, with its Etuko-1 well.
In this part of the world, especially with wells costing upwards of $15 million, it’s incredibly valuable to mitigate risk ahead of time. Observing your neighbors as they break new ground can make all the difference.
Heading north to south down the east coast of Kenya, Africa Oil is active in Block 9, then Taipan in the middle in Block 2B and junior Vanoil [VLE:CA] is also set to spud its first well on Block 3A to the immediate south of Block 2B.
Much like Africa Oil’s Paipai-1 well located on Block 10A, Vanoil’s well will be specifically targeting cretaceous rock. Located at a deeper depth, the cretaceous presents a higher-pressure zone that Vanoil says is in the oil window. These predictions come from the positive results that Paipai delivered, which encountered 55m thick hydrocarbon shows.
Both Taipan and Vanoil are set to benefit from planned infrastructure in the play. Vanoil already has plenty of roads crisscrossing its block, but for both companies the biggest benefit is that of proposed pipelines that come through their vicinity.
“There are a number of pipeline routes that are under discussion right now, but the ones that are the most likely are about 175 kilometers to the south of our block,” says Zive, as the Taipan team postures itself for future production. “But either way, even without a pipeline being built, we can truck oil out when the time comes after a potential discovery.”
Before either junior realizes its commercial potential, many eyes will be on the neighboring projects of Africa Oil and its partners. Investors from the United States will especially be intrigued by the projects involving Marathon, as it would be the first US-based Kenyan oil success story.
The landscape of Kenya’s oil story is set to make a big change, with several near term catalysts. The opportunity window for juniors in the region is closing fast, and the potential is about to be realized. It’s going to be an exciting six months.
http://thehydrocarbon.com/2013/04/29/time-running-out-to-gra…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.623 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:43:27Von User NgamiaSwede @ Stockhouse.com (many thanks)
... Was nun tatsächlich im aktuellen Nomura-Report steht:
1. Core Lokichar basin: The path to 1bn boe
We argue last week’s flow rate:
1) demonstrated productivity of the Lower Lokhone
sands and de-risked an additional 43m of “possible net pay” at Ngamia;
2) de-risked Etuko which is targeting a large Lower Lokhone section in the basin flank.
In the ‘core’ Lokichar basin we estimate the path to 1bn boe as:
1) 250mmboe of discovered resource,
2) 6x prospects targeting 300-400mmboe on the basin bounding fault; and
3) 3x prospects targeting 300-600mmboe in the basin flank.
... Was nun tatsächlich im aktuellen Nomura-Report steht:
1. Core Lokichar basin: The path to 1bn boe
We argue last week’s flow rate:
1) demonstrated productivity of the Lower Lokhone
sands and de-risked an additional 43m of “possible net pay” at Ngamia;
2) de-risked Etuko which is targeting a large Lower Lokhone section in the basin flank.
In the ‘core’ Lokichar basin we estimate the path to 1bn boe as:
1) 250mmboe of discovered resource,
2) 6x prospects targeting 300-400mmboe on the basin bounding fault; and
3) 3x prospects targeting 300-600mmboe in the basin flank.
... Ich glaube, die halbe (AOI-) Welt ist nun auf einen "älteren" Nomura-Report hereingefallen... Das eben zitierte ist von April 2012 - nach der Ngamia-Discovery... Trotzdem interessant zu lesen... 
Entstanden ist das Ganze, weil User NgamiaSwede, der ziemlich gut vernetzt ist, einen neuen Nomura-Report zitiert... Dieser hat übrigens offenbar einen höheren Target Price: SEK 88 - demnach wäre der aktuelle Report noch mehr lesenswert... Nur den hat bislang noch niemand irgendwo gepostet...
SORRY!!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.389 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:14:02... Aus den Erläuterungen...
What is the updip seal?
Owing to its proximity to a bounding fault, one of Ngamia’s biggest risks prior to drilling was oil leakage. It was thought that structural readjustments that took place as the rift valley opened up could have compromised trap integrity. The Ngamia discovery in Tertiary aged sands already differentiates Block 10BB from Block 10A, where readjustments in the Tertiary led to loss of seal, something demonstrated by the unsuccessful Sirius and Belatrix wells, which were drilled on breached traps. Both of these structures were three-way dip closed and fault-dependent.
A key question at the presentation at the Geological Society focused on what constituted the updip seal for Ngamia in Block 10BB. Three possibilities were given: a stratigraphic 'pinch out', viscous oil tar created through a process of biodegradation, or the waxy nature of the oil itself, which results in solidification at low temperatures. It is early days, but if Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the follow-up leads and prospects, we do not think it inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda, in excess of 1bn boe.
The plan view in Figure 2 shows these follow-up leads and prospects that lie along the same bounding fault as Ngamia. Two of these lie in Block 10BB and seven lie in the adjacent Block 13T. In total, three prospects are ready to drill. The remainder require additional seismic interpretation to identify optimal drilling locations.
A process of rejuvenation in the Lokichar sub basin
A sideways view of the Ngamia trend in the Lokichar sub basin shows what looks like a 'cascading up' of leads and prospects. It looks like the rift fault itself may have undergone a process of rejuvenation, with just the right amount of compression and uplift to form structural traps.
If Tullow have cracked the geological code in Kenya, as they did in Uganda, then what could follow is a series of exploration successes. Tullow drilled 11 consecutive discoveries in Uganda, amounting to discovered resource of 1.1bn boe.
Ngamia is thought to be a mirror of the Waraga discovery in Uganda: a collapsed structure against a bounding fault that has a large P10 closure of 18 square kilometres. Gross estimated resources are 45mmboe P50 and 180mmboe P10. Ngamia was announced as a discovery with 20m of net pay c.800m of drilling, prior to it reaching its primary and secondary targets. With the well having encountered more oil as it drills down to target depth of 2700m, we think that the prognosis looks good.
Tertiary rift trend all ‘sewn up’
What we found interesting about this presentation was that it also highlighted the scale of Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage. The Lokichar sub basin is one of seven sub basins that together are bigger than Lake Albert, Lake Tanganyika and Victoria combined. Block 10BB alone looks bigger than the size of England.
It seems counter-intuitive to think of a rift basin as being 'sewn up,' but figuratively speaking, that is what Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage position implies. We are most excited about the tertiary rift trend, which extends north-south from the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, to Blocks 10BB and 13T (adjacent) and Block 12A in Kenya (Figure 4).
Extrapolating surface geology into the sub surface
There are structures on the edge of the lake, and a big Cretaceous outcrop in Block 10BA. This holds out the potential prospect of two plays stacked on top of each other, where the Cretaceous and Tertiary rift trends intersect. From the perspective of suitable setting for source rocks, vintage seismic shows a deep graben that is also visible on newer seismic in the South Omo Block. There are also surface seeps visible on the lake.
We would like to see an acceleration of drilling
Accelerating drilling and 'chasing' the play northwards into the 'golden' blocks 10BA and South Omo is an issue of logistics and funding. Management have indicated that drilling plans could change subject to these issues.
Africa Oil had $118m of cash on its balance sheet at the end of 2011. Combined with Tullow's $23.75m carry, Africa oil is funded for around 6-7 wells in 2012. These are part of a wider 7-10 well programme that includes two wells in Puntland-Somaliland that will be drilled by Horn Petroleum (owned 51% by Africa Oil). We estimate something in the region of an additional $100m would be required for a further six wells.
A tentative estimate of NPV per barrel
Africa Oil’s acreage represents a vast, underexplored proven petroleum system. Five years ago, it looked similar to the Albert basin in Uganda, with numerous oil seeps, limited geophysical mapping and only a handful of older wells.
In terms of valuation, Uganda also provides an analogue. Discovered resource in Uganda slowly increased to 1.1bn boe from 11 consecutive discoveries by Tullow. Value was crystallised through the farming-down of two-thirds of this for USD 2.9bn, which equates to around $4/boe. This number is in line with Heritage Oil's initial $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe of contingent resource in Ugandan Blocks 1 and 3A to Tullow in Uganda.
This is also in line with our NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full-field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This is based on an expected success case which assumes that enough hydrocarbons are proved up to underpin a commercial development. In general terms, we assume a 600km heated pipeline to the port of Lamu for export lies within the PSC ring fence and is cost recoverable. Our generic field has a plateau production rate of 200 kboe/d, similar to volumes targeted in Uganda. We assume no royalty and a profit oil split that ranges between 20-50% depending on production volumes.
The multiplier effect across a huge resource potential
We stress that, as a pure exploration company, Africa Oil is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves. Key risks are disappointing well results and political risk in East Africa.
An exploration valuation at this stage generally benefits from a low starting base and the law of large numbers. The $/boe and risked resource numbers that are incorporated into a Risked NAV framework are effectively small valuation levers that can make a big difference.
The chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate is the starting point. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource. This results in our Risked NAV of SEK 74 (CAD 11).
To reflect the valuation scenarios that we have been asked to run, we also provide a sensitivity table that shows theoretical valuations on differing resource and NPV $/boe values in Table 5.
Risks to our TP
As a name purely geared to exploration, Africa Oil is at the very early stages of the oil and gas development cycle. From an investment perspective, value creation for E&P companies lies in de-risking and appraising prospects in their portfolio or, more generally, finding hydrocarbons. Consequently, we stress that it is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.
For E&P stocks in general, we would expect the share price to move with exploration news flow and ultimately re-rate (or de-rate) upon exploration success (or failure). Key risks are disappointing well results, changes to the drilling schedule, lack of funding and political risk in East Africa.
In the case of Africa Oil, the ability to access external financing is itself speculative in nature, and can be dependent on the exploration success (or failure) of its drilling programme.
What is the updip seal?
Owing to its proximity to a bounding fault, one of Ngamia’s biggest risks prior to drilling was oil leakage. It was thought that structural readjustments that took place as the rift valley opened up could have compromised trap integrity. The Ngamia discovery in Tertiary aged sands already differentiates Block 10BB from Block 10A, where readjustments in the Tertiary led to loss of seal, something demonstrated by the unsuccessful Sirius and Belatrix wells, which were drilled on breached traps. Both of these structures were three-way dip closed and fault-dependent.
A key question at the presentation at the Geological Society focused on what constituted the updip seal for Ngamia in Block 10BB. Three possibilities were given: a stratigraphic 'pinch out', viscous oil tar created through a process of biodegradation, or the waxy nature of the oil itself, which results in solidification at low temperatures. It is early days, but if Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the follow-up leads and prospects, we do not think it inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda, in excess of 1bn boe.
The plan view in Figure 2 shows these follow-up leads and prospects that lie along the same bounding fault as Ngamia. Two of these lie in Block 10BB and seven lie in the adjacent Block 13T. In total, three prospects are ready to drill. The remainder require additional seismic interpretation to identify optimal drilling locations.
A process of rejuvenation in the Lokichar sub basin
A sideways view of the Ngamia trend in the Lokichar sub basin shows what looks like a 'cascading up' of leads and prospects. It looks like the rift fault itself may have undergone a process of rejuvenation, with just the right amount of compression and uplift to form structural traps.
If Tullow have cracked the geological code in Kenya, as they did in Uganda, then what could follow is a series of exploration successes. Tullow drilled 11 consecutive discoveries in Uganda, amounting to discovered resource of 1.1bn boe.
Ngamia is thought to be a mirror of the Waraga discovery in Uganda: a collapsed structure against a bounding fault that has a large P10 closure of 18 square kilometres. Gross estimated resources are 45mmboe P50 and 180mmboe P10. Ngamia was announced as a discovery with 20m of net pay c.800m of drilling, prior to it reaching its primary and secondary targets. With the well having encountered more oil as it drills down to target depth of 2700m, we think that the prognosis looks good.
Tertiary rift trend all ‘sewn up’
What we found interesting about this presentation was that it also highlighted the scale of Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage. The Lokichar sub basin is one of seven sub basins that together are bigger than Lake Albert, Lake Tanganyika and Victoria combined. Block 10BB alone looks bigger than the size of England.
It seems counter-intuitive to think of a rift basin as being 'sewn up,' but figuratively speaking, that is what Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage position implies. We are most excited about the tertiary rift trend, which extends north-south from the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, to Blocks 10BB and 13T (adjacent) and Block 12A in Kenya (Figure 4).
Extrapolating surface geology into the sub surface
There are structures on the edge of the lake, and a big Cretaceous outcrop in Block 10BA. This holds out the potential prospect of two plays stacked on top of each other, where the Cretaceous and Tertiary rift trends intersect. From the perspective of suitable setting for source rocks, vintage seismic shows a deep graben that is also visible on newer seismic in the South Omo Block. There are also surface seeps visible on the lake.
We would like to see an acceleration of drilling
Accelerating drilling and 'chasing' the play northwards into the 'golden' blocks 10BA and South Omo is an issue of logistics and funding. Management have indicated that drilling plans could change subject to these issues.
Africa Oil had $118m of cash on its balance sheet at the end of 2011. Combined with Tullow's $23.75m carry, Africa oil is funded for around 6-7 wells in 2012. These are part of a wider 7-10 well programme that includes two wells in Puntland-Somaliland that will be drilled by Horn Petroleum (owned 51% by Africa Oil). We estimate something in the region of an additional $100m would be required for a further six wells.
A tentative estimate of NPV per barrel
Africa Oil’s acreage represents a vast, underexplored proven petroleum system. Five years ago, it looked similar to the Albert basin in Uganda, with numerous oil seeps, limited geophysical mapping and only a handful of older wells.
In terms of valuation, Uganda also provides an analogue. Discovered resource in Uganda slowly increased to 1.1bn boe from 11 consecutive discoveries by Tullow. Value was crystallised through the farming-down of two-thirds of this for USD 2.9bn, which equates to around $4/boe. This number is in line with Heritage Oil's initial $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe of contingent resource in Ugandan Blocks 1 and 3A to Tullow in Uganda.
This is also in line with our NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full-field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This is based on an expected success case which assumes that enough hydrocarbons are proved up to underpin a commercial development. In general terms, we assume a 600km heated pipeline to the port of Lamu for export lies within the PSC ring fence and is cost recoverable. Our generic field has a plateau production rate of 200 kboe/d, similar to volumes targeted in Uganda. We assume no royalty and a profit oil split that ranges between 20-50% depending on production volumes.
The multiplier effect across a huge resource potential
We stress that, as a pure exploration company, Africa Oil is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves. Key risks are disappointing well results and political risk in East Africa.
An exploration valuation at this stage generally benefits from a low starting base and the law of large numbers. The $/boe and risked resource numbers that are incorporated into a Risked NAV framework are effectively small valuation levers that can make a big difference.
The chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate is the starting point. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource. This results in our Risked NAV of SEK 74 (CAD 11).
To reflect the valuation scenarios that we have been asked to run, we also provide a sensitivity table that shows theoretical valuations on differing resource and NPV $/boe values in Table 5.
Risks to our TP
As a name purely geared to exploration, Africa Oil is at the very early stages of the oil and gas development cycle. From an investment perspective, value creation for E&P companies lies in de-risking and appraising prospects in their portfolio or, more generally, finding hydrocarbons. Consequently, we stress that it is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.
For E&P stocks in general, we would expect the share price to move with exploration news flow and ultimately re-rate (or de-rate) upon exploration success (or failure). Key risks are disappointing well results, changes to the drilling schedule, lack of funding and political risk in East Africa.
In the case of Africa Oil, the ability to access external financing is itself speculative in nature, and can be dependent on the exploration success (or failure) of its drilling programme.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.343 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:10:41Hier der Frontpage-Text...
On the cusp of something big?
Increasing TP to SEK 74/sh; Reiterate speculative Buy
Following the follow-ups
We recently attended a presentation by Tullow at the Geological Society and also hosted a breakfast with the CEO of Africa Oil. Following the Ngamia discovery, we think these companies could be on the cusp of opening up a multi-billion barrel basin across Kenya and Ethiopia. Our Risked NAV now includes tentative resource estimates for the nine follow- up prospects along the Ngamia trend and our corresponding TP moves to SEK 74 (CAD 11). We also highlight Blue Sky scenarios much higher than this, with the qualification that this remains a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.
A cascade of prospects in the Lokichar sub basin
The significance of success at Ngamia for us is that oil has not leaked through the fault. This was one of the biggest risks identified pre-drill. If Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the nine follow-up leads along the same bounding fault, it is not inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda. If this is the case, then the current share price could be underpinned by these prospects alone. Further upside could come from the northern extension of the Tertiary play in Blocks 10BA and South Omo in Ethiopia to the north, previously identified as the ‘golden blocks’ of the acreage.
Multiplier effect across a huge acreage position
Risked NAV is now driven by two levers. Firstly, NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This number is in line with the Heritage Oil's $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe contingent resource to Tullow in Uganda. Secondly, chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource, a number illustrative of the potential Blue Sky
upside.
On the cusp of something big?
Increasing TP to SEK 74/sh; Reiterate speculative Buy
Following the follow-ups
We recently attended a presentation by Tullow at the Geological Society and also hosted a breakfast with the CEO of Africa Oil. Following the Ngamia discovery, we think these companies could be on the cusp of opening up a multi-billion barrel basin across Kenya and Ethiopia. Our Risked NAV now includes tentative resource estimates for the nine follow- up prospects along the Ngamia trend and our corresponding TP moves to SEK 74 (CAD 11). We also highlight Blue Sky scenarios much higher than this, with the qualification that this remains a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.
A cascade of prospects in the Lokichar sub basin
The significance of success at Ngamia for us is that oil has not leaked through the fault. This was one of the biggest risks identified pre-drill. If Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the nine follow-up leads along the same bounding fault, it is not inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda. If this is the case, then the current share price could be underpinned by these prospects alone. Further upside could come from the northern extension of the Tertiary play in Blocks 10BA and South Omo in Ethiopia to the north, previously identified as the ‘golden blocks’ of the acreage.
Multiplier effect across a huge acreage position
Risked NAV is now driven by two levers. Firstly, NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This number is in line with the Heritage Oil's $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe contingent resource to Tullow in Uganda. Secondly, chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource, a number illustrative of the potential Blue Sky
upside.
Trading Spotlight
Nomura Report vom 20. April - Download clicken....
http://www.qfpost.com/file/d?g=9o63IH7Zg
... Sehr schön zu lesen und es steht eigentlich alles drin, was hier auch diskutiert wurde...
http://www.qfpost.com/file/d?g=9o63IH7Zg
... Sehr schön zu lesen und es steht eigentlich alles drin, was hier auch diskutiert wurde...
Bis zum Annual Meeting sollten die Ergebnisse bekannt sein.
April 23, 2013
Africa Oil Announces Annual Meeting Date
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - April 23, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") announces that the Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders of the Company will be held at the Fairmont Hotel, the Boardroom, Conference Level, 900 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, B.C. on Monday June 3, 2013 at 10:00 a.m.
The record date for the meeting is April 26, 2013.
April 23, 2013
Africa Oil Announces Annual Meeting Date
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - April 23, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") announces that the Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders of the Company will be held at the Fairmont Hotel, the Boardroom, Conference Level, 900 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, B.C. on Monday June 3, 2013 at 10:00 a.m.
The record date for the meeting is April 26, 2013.
Das Fähnlein scheint wieder zu drehen. Gut so. schwochner hat im Beitrag 2220 scheinbar den Nagel auf den Kopf getroffen - chapeau!
@gabbo62: Deine These klingt plausibel. Ich muss aber gestehen, dass wenn es so wäre ich damit klar komme bzw. es begrüße wenn die Shares in den richtigen Händen landen. Dass das wohl opportunistisch ist und ggf. die falschen die Zeche zahlen ist mir klar.
Bei dem was AOI wohl bevorsteht -Sabisa scheint momentan gut zu werden- kann eine stabile Basis nicht schaden.
In Somalia -und damit hinsichtlich Horn Petroleum- scheint Bewegung ins "Spiel" zu kommen. Die Majors welche vor dem Umsturz im Land aktiv waren melden ihre Ansprüche an.
Der neue CEO scheint mit derartigen Situationen vertraut. Interessant finde ich jedenfalls, dass er zu diesem Zeitpunkt in das Unternehmen eintritt. Wenn er für AOI Äthiopien und für Horn verantwortlich zeichnet, gehe ich davon aus, dass es dort viel zu tun gibt. Mir soll es recht sein...
.....................
Somalia Targets Shell, Eni for Oil, Gas Output-Sharing Contracts
By David Malingha Doya - Apr 22, 2013 12:22 PM GMT+0200
Somalia plans to sign 30 oil and gas production-sharing contracts this year, starting with companies that operated in the country before its government was toppled more than two decades ago, an official said.
“All prior holders have been contacted and three are ready to continue,” including Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Eni SpA (ENI), and ConocoPhillips (C), Hussein Ali Ahmed, managing director of the state-owned Somalia Petroleum Corp., said in an interview on April 18 in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. BP Plc (BP/) has indicated an interest in returning, while Chevron Corp. hasn’t formerly answered the Somali government’s call to come back, he said.
Somalia is one of the last frontiers for oil and gas in eastern Africa as it recovers from a two-decade civil war that shattered the economy and left the nation as one of the world’s least developed. In the region, companies including Eni, BG Group Plc (BG/) and Statoil ASA (STL) have discovered more than 100 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves in Mozambique and Tanzania, while London-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) has found oil in Uganda and Kenya.
Somali lawmakers in September elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud as the country’s president, marking the 16th attempt to establish an effective central government since 1991, when the former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown. The country’s security forces, backed by regional peacekeepers, are still battling al-Qaeda-backed Islamic militants who control parts of southern and central Somalia, after fleeing the capital, Mogadishu, in August 2011.
Exploration Blocks
Somalia plans to increase the number of oil and gas exploration blocks to 300 of 5,000 square kilometers (1,931 square miles) each, after sub-dividing the existing 25 areas, according to Ahmed. Some blocks are currently as big as 200,000 square kilometers, Ahmed said.
“We want to sub-divide because they are too big to award to single companies for exploration in good time,” Ahmed said. Shell had five blocks before Barre’s government fell, he said.
The area available to explore for oil and gas in Somalia is equivalent to about one third of the country’s surface, Ahmed said. The country expects to complete legislation under which oil and gas activities will be managed within in months.
“We had drafted a law in 2008, but the new government asked to review it, and we expect they will send in to parliament soon, and the whole process should be complete in a few months,” Ahmed said.
http://origin-www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/somalia-targ…
@gabbo62: Deine These klingt plausibel. Ich muss aber gestehen, dass wenn es so wäre ich damit klar komme bzw. es begrüße wenn die Shares in den richtigen Händen landen. Dass das wohl opportunistisch ist und ggf. die falschen die Zeche zahlen ist mir klar.
Bei dem was AOI wohl bevorsteht -Sabisa scheint momentan gut zu werden- kann eine stabile Basis nicht schaden.
In Somalia -und damit hinsichtlich Horn Petroleum- scheint Bewegung ins "Spiel" zu kommen. Die Majors welche vor dem Umsturz im Land aktiv waren melden ihre Ansprüche an.
Der neue CEO scheint mit derartigen Situationen vertraut. Interessant finde ich jedenfalls, dass er zu diesem Zeitpunkt in das Unternehmen eintritt. Wenn er für AOI Äthiopien und für Horn verantwortlich zeichnet, gehe ich davon aus, dass es dort viel zu tun gibt. Mir soll es recht sein...
.....................
Somalia Targets Shell, Eni for Oil, Gas Output-Sharing Contracts
By David Malingha Doya - Apr 22, 2013 12:22 PM GMT+0200
Somalia plans to sign 30 oil and gas production-sharing contracts this year, starting with companies that operated in the country before its government was toppled more than two decades ago, an official said.
“All prior holders have been contacted and three are ready to continue,” including Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Eni SpA (ENI), and ConocoPhillips (C), Hussein Ali Ahmed, managing director of the state-owned Somalia Petroleum Corp., said in an interview on April 18 in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. BP Plc (BP/) has indicated an interest in returning, while Chevron Corp. hasn’t formerly answered the Somali government’s call to come back, he said.
Somalia is one of the last frontiers for oil and gas in eastern Africa as it recovers from a two-decade civil war that shattered the economy and left the nation as one of the world’s least developed. In the region, companies including Eni, BG Group Plc (BG/) and Statoil ASA (STL) have discovered more than 100 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves in Mozambique and Tanzania, while London-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) has found oil in Uganda and Kenya.
Somali lawmakers in September elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud as the country’s president, marking the 16th attempt to establish an effective central government since 1991, when the former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown. The country’s security forces, backed by regional peacekeepers, are still battling al-Qaeda-backed Islamic militants who control parts of southern and central Somalia, after fleeing the capital, Mogadishu, in August 2011.
Exploration Blocks
Somalia plans to increase the number of oil and gas exploration blocks to 300 of 5,000 square kilometers (1,931 square miles) each, after sub-dividing the existing 25 areas, according to Ahmed. Some blocks are currently as big as 200,000 square kilometers, Ahmed said.
“We want to sub-divide because they are too big to award to single companies for exploration in good time,” Ahmed said. Shell had five blocks before Barre’s government fell, he said.
The area available to explore for oil and gas in Somalia is equivalent to about one third of the country’s surface, Ahmed said. The country expects to complete legislation under which oil and gas activities will be managed within in months.
“We had drafted a law in 2008, but the new government asked to review it, and we expect they will send in to parliament soon, and the whole process should be complete in a few months,” Ahmed said.
http://origin-www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/somalia-targ…
An Zufälle glaube ich hier nicht mehr. Nach dem mysteriösen letzten PP hat man jetzt fast den Boden gefunden, um das Optionspaket auszukippen. So ein Zufall aber auch.
Meines Erachtens wird seit Monaten bei AOI mit Unterstützung des Managements versucht, die Anteile in die "richtigen" Hände zu spielen.
Könnt Ihr Euch noch an die fadenscheinige Begründung des Verkaufs von 100.000 Shares von K. Hill kurz nach dem PP errinnern? Auch das war m.E. ein gezieltern Beitrag zur vorgenannten These.
Auszug aus der NR vom 16.04.13 (Gewährung von Optionen für Mgt):
The Company also announces that it has granted an aggregate of 5,673,500 incentive stock options to certain officers, directors, and other eligible persons of the Company. The options are exercisable, subject to vesting provisions, over a period of three years at a price of $5.94 per share.
http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…
Einen Teil der zugeteilten Optionen sieht man hier bei Canadianinsider.
K. Hill hat z.B. 580.000 zum Bezugspreis von 5,94 $ erhalten.
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=AOI+%7C+…
Meines Erachtens wird seit Monaten bei AOI mit Unterstützung des Managements versucht, die Anteile in die "richtigen" Hände zu spielen.
Könnt Ihr Euch noch an die fadenscheinige Begründung des Verkaufs von 100.000 Shares von K. Hill kurz nach dem PP errinnern? Auch das war m.E. ein gezieltern Beitrag zur vorgenannten These.
Auszug aus der NR vom 16.04.13 (Gewährung von Optionen für Mgt):
The Company also announces that it has granted an aggregate of 5,673,500 incentive stock options to certain officers, directors, and other eligible persons of the Company. The options are exercisable, subject to vesting provisions, over a period of three years at a price of $5.94 per share.
http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…
Einen Teil der zugeteilten Optionen sieht man hier bei Canadianinsider.
K. Hill hat z.B. 580.000 zum Bezugspreis von 5,94 $ erhalten.
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=AOI+%7C+…
Durchsuchen
