Blackouts in den USA : Und hier die Aktie dazu ! Lest selbst !!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[GliderPilot]

CAPSTONE ist DER Produzent von Generatoren in den USA. Bevor die ihr Netz ausgebaut haben vergehen noch Jahre. Und was brauchen die hysterischen Energiejunkies in der Zwischenzeit, um ihre Klimaanlagen am Laufen zu halten ??? Dazu passend folgende Meldung von Spiegel Online:

BLACKOUTS IN DEN USA

"Das Risiko gerät außer Kontrolle"

Stundenlang zappenduster in Metropolen wie New York - dieses Szenario wird sich nach Meinung von Wissenschaftlern noch öfters wiederholen. Die Stromausfälle seien eine logische Folge des Netzaufbaus und nur mit hohen Investitionen zu verhindern.

New York ohne Lampen: Am 14. August 2003 brach das Stromnetz an der Ostküste zusammen
Die Crashs im US-Stromnetz im vergangenen Jahr waren ein Schlag gegen das Selbstbewusstsein einer ganzen Nation. Wenn die Thesen stimmen, die zwei amerikanische
Wissenschaftlerteams unabhängig voneinander aufgestellt haben, sind Zusammenbrüche der Energieversorgung im System programmiert.
John Kappenmann, der die US-Regierung in Energiefragen berät, warnte auf einer Tagung von Meteorologen in Seattle vor geomagnetischen Stürmen. Diese könnten noch größere Blackouts verursachen als bisher geschehen. Die Art und Weise, wie das Netz ausgebaut werde, mache es noch verwundbarer. "Die Bedrohung ist größer als bisher gedacht", sagte Kappenmann dem Wissenschaftsdienst "Nature Science Update".

Magnetische Stürme von der Sonne, auf die auch das Polarlicht zurückgeht, würden in den Leitungen des Netzes hohe Ströme induzieren, mit denen das auf Wechselstrom ausgerichtete System jedoch nicht zurecht komme. Der Effekt könne verheerend sein. Kappenmann berichtete von einem solaren Magnetsturm aus dem Jahr 1989, der binnen 90 Sekunden das Leitungsnetz von Quebec lahm legte.



Grand Central Station im August 2003: Nichts läuft mehr, nur die New Yorker selbst
Je größer ein Netz werde und je mehr Verbindungen es enthalte, umso verwundbarer sei es, unterstrich der Energieexperte. In den letzten 50 Jahren habe sich die Länge der Stromleitungen in den USA verzehnfacht. Letztlich habe man nur eine "größere Antenne" gebaut, die noch mehr induzierte Ströme aufsammle. "Die Stromkonzerne haben unwissentlich Schwachstellen in das Netz eingebaut", sagte Kappenmann. "Das Risiko gerät außer Kontrolle."
Während Kappenmann die immer stärkere Vernetzung als Risiko betrachtet, kommt eine Wissenschaftlergruppe der Pennsylvania State University zu ganz anderen Ergebnissen. Réka Albert und ihre Kollegen glauben, dass eher ein zu dünn geflochtenes Netz für die Stromausfälle im vergangenen Sommer verantwortlich ist.

Wie Blackouts entstehen

Die Physiker entwickelten ein Modell, mit dem sie das Verhalten des US-Stromnetzes simulierten und stellten fest, dass sich Ausfälle im Netz als Kaskade fortpflanzten. Leitungen wurden automatisch unterbrochen, wenn die Spannung bestimmte Werte überstieg. Als Folge fuhren Kraftwerke und Generatoren ihre Leistung herunter, weil ihr Strom keine Abnehmer mehr fand. Die verbliebenen Kraftwerke und Leitungen konnten das Defizit nicht ausgleichen und fielen ebenfalls aus - der Blackout war da.



Hochspannungsmast: Zusatzleitungen und Sperren gegen die Folgen von Magnetstürmen empfohlen
Das Stromnetz der USA sei ein "exponentielles Netzwerk", schreiben Albert und ihre Kollegen in der Fachzeitschrift "Condensed Matter". Die Einzelteile funktionierten weitgehend autark, allerdings spielten wenige Knotenpunkte mit besonderes vielen Verbindungen eine ausschlaggebende Rolle. Sobald nur vier Prozent dieser so genannten Hubs ausfielen, könnten 60 Prozent des Netzes zusammenbrechen.
Albert empfiehlt deshalb, die Zahl der Leitungen zwischen Knotenpunkten zu erhöhen, damit der Ausfall einzelner Strecken nicht mehr so ins Gewicht falle. Eine Empfehlung, vor deren direkter Umsetzung Kappenmann warnt: Sie würde das Netz verwundbarer machen gegenüber Magnetstürmen. Um das Netz zu schützen, müssten zusätzlich Sperren integriert werden, die die induzierten Ströme um 60 bis 70 Prozent verringerten, erklärt der Energieexperte. Fachleute schätzen, dass ein Ausbau des US-Stromnetzes, der künftige Blackouts weitgehend ausschließt, 100 Milliarden Dollar kosten könnte.

GP

[Wouw]

Dem stimme ich uneingeschränkt zu. Zudem die Firma letzten Monat eine neue Turbine mit viel Tam tam rausgebracht hat.

[Wouw]

kann jemand die meldung der Firma heute reinstellen. habe keine Zeit zur recherche. Danke.

[Wouw]

Mensch Leute, muss man denn hier alles selber machen. In meinen Augen geht es aufwärts. Aber lest selbst:

17-Feb-2004 Quarterly Report

Item 2. Management`s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and Notes included in this Quarterly Report and within the Company`s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002. This document contains certain forward-looking statements (as such term is defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act")) pertaining to, among other things, the Company`s future results of operations, research and development ("R&D") activities, sales expectations, our ability to develop markets for our products, sources for parts, federal, state and local regulations, and general business, industry and economic conditions applicable to the Company. When used in the following discussion, the words "believes", "anticipates", "intends", "expects", "plans" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are based largely on the Company`s current expectations, estimates and forecasts and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Factors that can cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to, those listed in Item 5 - Other Information of this Form 10-Q. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. The following factors should be considered in addition to the other information contained herein in evaluating the Company and its business. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any of the forward-looking statements after the filing of this Form 10-Q to conform such statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations, except as required by law.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

The preparation of the Company`s financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. Management believes the most complex and sensitive judgments, because of their significance to the consolidated financial statements, result primarily from the need to make estimates about the effects of matters that are inherently uncertain. Actual results could differ from management`s estimates. We believe the critical accounting policies listed below affect our more significant accounting judgments and estimates used in the preparation of the consolidated financial statements. These policies are described in greater detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002.

• Impairment of long-lived assets, including intangible assets;

• Inventory write-downs and classification of inventory;

• Estimates of warranty obligations;

• Sales returns and allowances;

• Allowance for doubtful accounts;

• Deferred tax assets; and

• Loss contingencies.


Change in Fiscal Year

On December 12, 2003, the Company changed its fiscal year end from December 31 to March 31. A report for the three-month transition period from January 1, 2003 through March 31, 2003 was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on January 26, 2004. The Company`s new fiscal year commenced on April 1, 2003 and ends on March 31, 2004.

Overview

We develop, manufacture and market microturbines for use in stationary distributed power generation applications such as combined heat and power ("CHP"), resource recovery, power quality and reliability and in non-stationary applications such as hybrid electric vehicles. Our microturbines provide power at the site of consumption and to hybrid electric vehicles that combine a primary source battery with an auxiliary power source, such as a microturbine, to enhance performance. We expect our microturbines to provide both the commercial power generation industry and hybrid electric vehicles with clean, multifunctional, and scalable distributed power sources. We sell complete microturbine units, subassemblies and components and perform limited service work, such as product refurbishments. The microturbines are sold primarily through our distributors. Authorized Service Providers ("ASPs") provide installation and service. Successful implementation of the microturbine relies on the quality of the microturbine, the ability of the distributors to sell into appropriate applications, and ASPs providing quality installations and support.


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The market for our products is highly competitive and is changing rapidly. Our microturbines compete with existing technologies, such as the utility grid and reciprocating engines, and may also compete with emerging distributed generation technologies, including solar power, wind powered systems, fuel cells and other microturbines. Additionally, many of our distributed generation competitors are well-established firms; they derive advantages from production economies of scale, a worldwide presence and greater resources, which they can devote to product development or promotion.

We began commercial sales of our Model C30 products in 1998. In September 2000, we shipped the first commercial unit of our Model C60 microturbine. As of December 31, 2003, we have sold a total of 2,769 commercial units; however, we believe roughly 20% of these units are still in our distributors` inventories. We are in the final stages of development of our C-200 microturbine. We expect beta testing of the new product to begin in the first quarter of fiscal year 2005, which begins April 1, 2004. We anticipate that in the third quarter of fiscal year 2005, based on the results of the beta testing, we will be able to announce our plans for the launch of the C-200.

Although our products offer significant advantages over competing products in many applications, the rate of adoption for our technology has been slower than anticipated. The present economic conditions, including tight restrictions for capital expenditures, impact our opportunities as well. We have incurred significant losses since inception, which were funded primarily through private and public equity offerings. We believe that our cash balance is sufficient to fund current operations, commitments for capital expenditures and contractual obligations.

In August 2003, John Tucker joined the Company as our Chief Executive Officer. Since then, he immediately began to establish new leadership throughout the organization, in particular, sales and service, operations, engineering, human resources, quality and business development. In our efforts to become profitable, we are currently focused on three specific initiatives:

• enhancing the robustness of our products;

• improving quality and lowering total product cost; and

• completing the C200 development.


We are continuing to make progress on these issues. Historically, while we are addressing the robustness and quality of our products, we have incurred warranty charges and inventory charges that are higher than we believe should be necessary for a business of our nature. We expect to continue to incur high warranty and inventory charges as well as incremental costs to execute our enhancement and quality programs, until such time that the improvements we are implementing yield benefits.

We are currently developing a Strategic Plan to set the direction of the Company for the next three years. For this plan, we will focus on attractive market opportunities and selecting vertical markets we believe can offer high returns, evaluating the product and sales channel requirements to penetrate these target markets, and reducing total product cost. The strategic planning process is the first element of three core processes being implemented, which are: Strategic Planning, developing an Annual Operating Plan and executing a Management Review Process. These processes are linked together; the Strategic Plan goals and activities are tied to our Annual Operating Plan, which will set our revenue, expense, operating result and cash budgets. The Management Review Process will take the Annual Operating Plan and align employees` objectives to the plan. We expect to complete the plans in April 2004. Our Strategic Plan is important for how we move forward to develop business opportunities that are more consistent and repeatable which we believe is key to improving profitability. We expect variability in our operating results until such time as we establish target vertical markets that yield more consistent, recurring business.

Results of Operations

Three Months Ended December 31, 2003 and 2002

Revenues. Revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 decreased $0.4 million to $3.3 million from $3.7 million for the same period last year. Although product shipments during the quarter of 2.4 megawatts were about 70% of the volume shipped for the same period a year ago, the related revenues for the quarter of $2.2 million were about 80% of the revenue a year ago. This was a result of a higher portion of products sold in the current period into more favorably priced markets. Revenues from accessories, parts and service for the quarter of $1.1 million were the same a year ago. Revenues are reported net of sales returns and allowances.

We entered the third quarter with 4.3 megawatts of outstanding orders. We received new orders of 4.3 megawatts and shipped 2.4 megawatts, leaving outstanding orders of 6.2 megawatts at the end of the quarter.


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Two customers accounted for approximately 39% of revenues for the third quarter of 2004. One customer accounted for approximately 23% of revenues for the same quarter a year ago.

Gross Loss. We had a gross loss of $3.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, compared with $12.4 million for the same period last year. The reduction in gross loss was the result of several factors including:

• We recognized a partial impairment loss of $5.0 million on fixed assets

and a manufacturing license related to our recuperator core facility a
year ago.

• In addition to our warranty accrual for units shipped in the period, a year ago we recorded additional warranty charges of $3.6 million, whereas
this period we recorded $1.7 million. These charges were based on
additional information gathered during the periods about the costs of
providing warranty for units shipped in prior periods and warranty
accommodations made in each period.

• Inventory write-downs were $1.9 million lower this quarter than last year.

Our cost of goods sold has exceeded revenues each period. We expect this trend to continue until such time that we can sell a sufficient number of units to achieve a break-even margin. In addition, in our focus to improve reliability of our products, we expect variability in our warranty costs, which may impact our margin.

R&D Expenses. R&D expenses for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 increased $1.0 million to $3.0 million from $2.0 million for the same period last year. R&D expenses are reported net of benefits from cost sharing programs. There were no such benefits this quarter, compared with $1.5 million a year ago. The benefits from cost sharing programs vary from period-to-period depending on the phases of the programs. In addition, in 2003, we suspended billings to the United States Department of Energy ("DOE"), which funds the C200 development, because of a lack of committed program funding. As soon as additional funds are appropriated for this project, we will resume billing the DOE.

Selling, General, and Administrative ("SG&A") Expenses. SG&A expenses for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 decreased $1.1 million to $5.7 million from $6.8 million for the same period last year. Overall spending was lower in the current quarter compared with last year in areas such as headcount, consulting and facilities costs.

Interest Income. Interest income for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 decreased $0.3 million to $0.3 million from $0.6 million for the same period last year. The decrease was primarily attributable to lower cash balances. We expect decreasing cash balances from our use of funds will continue to diminish our interest income.

Nine Months Ended December 31, 2003 and 2002

Revenues. Revenues for the nine months ended December 31, 2003 decreased $5.2 million to $9.7 million from $14.9 million for the same period last year. Revenues from product shipments decreased $3.5 million to $7.3 million from $10.8 million a year ago. Shipments during the period were 8.9 megawatts compared with 14.0 megawatts for the same period in the prior year. Revenues from accessories, parts and service for the nine months ended December 31, 2003 decreased $1.0 million to $3.2 million from $4.2 million. Revenues are reported net of sales returns and allowances.

Two customers accounted for approximately 23% of revenues for the current period. One customer accounted for approximately 10% of revenues for the same period a year ago.

Gross Loss. We had a gross loss of $7.9 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $19.0 million for the same period last year. The reduction in gross loss was the result of several factors including:

• We recognized a partial impairment loss of $5.0 million on fixed assets

and a manufacturing license related to our recuperator core facility a
year ago.

• Inventory write-downs were $4.6 million lower this year than last year.
• Warranty charges were $1.9 million lower this year than last year.


We had previously fully written-down inventories of recuperator cores and have started using some of these cores in production, which had a favorable impact on our margin. During the nine months ended December 31, 2003, we used $0.3 million of these cores.


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R&D Expenses. R&D expenses for the nine months ended December 31, 2003 increased $2.4 million to $7.9 million from $5.5 million for the same period last year. R&D expenses are reported net of benefits from cost sharing programs. These benefits were $0.2 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $4.4 million for the same period a year ago. The benefits from cost sharing programs vary from period-to-period depending on the phases of the programs. In addition, in 2003, we suspended billings to the DOE, which funds the C200 development, because of a lack of committed program funding. As soon as additional funds are appropriated for this project, we will resume billing the
DOE.


SG&A Expenses. SG&A expenses for the nine months ended December 31, 2003 decreased $8.5 million to $15.0 million from $23.5 million for the same period last year. Overall spending was lower in the current year in areas such as headcount, legal, consulting and facilities costs. In addition, there was no amortization expense from marketing rights in the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $1.3 million for the same period last year.

Impairment Loss. During the quarter ended June 30, 2002, as a result of a change in our sales forecast, the Company evaluated the remaining book value of the marketing rights and determined that this asset was impaired based on the assessment of the expected cash flows that can be generated during its remaining term. Expected favorable margins in the latter years of the term of the marketing rights were not sufficient to offset losses in the early years. The recorded impairment loss was approximately $16.0 million, representing the remaining carrying value of the asset.

Interest Income. Interest income for the nine months ended December 31, 2003 decreased $1.0 million to $1.0 million from $2.0 million for the same period last year. The decrease was primarily attributable to lower cash balances. We expect decreasing cash balances from our use of funds will continue to diminish our interest income.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Our cash requirements depend on many factors, including our product development activities and our commercialization efforts. We expect to continue to devote substantial capital resources to running our business, including enhancing reliability of both new and existing products and completing the development of our C200 microturbine.

We have invested our cash in an institutional fund that invests in high quality short-term money market instruments to provide liquidity for operations and for capital preservation.

We used cash of $20.9 million during nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $24.1 million for the same period last year.

Our net cash used in operating activities was $19.9 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $24.9 million for the same period last year. The decrease reflects a decline of $2.9 million in net loss, after adjusting for non-cash items, and a working capital change of $2.1 million. The change in working capital was primarily as a result of using inventory as described below.

Accounts receivable decreased $1.3 million to $2.4 million as of December 31, 2003 from $3.7 million as of March 31, 2003, as a result of improved collections in the period, mostly from the DOE.

Total inventory decreased $2.6 million to $13.9 million as of December 31, 2003 from $16.5 million as of March 31, 2003. At December 31, 2003, non-current inventory of $4.8 million represents that portion of the inventory in excess of amounts expected to be sold or used in the next twelve months. As of December 31, 2003, the Company had firm commitments to purchase inventories of approximately $6.8 million.

Net cash used in investing activities for acquisition of fixed assets was $1.1 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared to $2.1 million for the same period last year.

Our net cash provided by financing activities was $0.1 million for the nine months ended December 31, 2003, compared with $3.0 million for the same period last year. This decrease was primarily the result of net proceeds from sale of common stock last year of $4.0 million, offset by higher proceeds from exercise of stock options and employee stock purchases of $1.2 million this year. In October 2002, our Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program under which we may purchase up to $10 million of our common stock. We may purchase shares from time to time through open market and privately negotiated transactions at prices


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deemed appropriate by management. The program has no termination date. Since the inception of the program, we have repurchased 551,208 shares for an aggregate price of $0.5 million.

Except for scheduled payments made in 2003, there have been no material changes in the Company`s remaining commitments under non-cancelable operating leases and capital leases as disclosed in the Company`s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002.

In 2000, the DOE awarded us $10.0 million under a Cooperative Agreement to develop an Advanced Microturbine System. The $10.0 million award was to be distributed over a five-year period. The program was estimated to cost $23.0 million over five years, which would require us to provide approximately $13.0 million of our own R&D expenditures. We have billed $8.0 million to the DOE under this agreement since inception of the contract, leaving a balance of $2.0 million to be billed through 2005.

Impact of Recently Issued Accounting Standards

In December 2003, the FASB issued Interpretation No. 46, "Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities" (revised in December 2003) ("FIN 46-R"). This interpretation of Accounting Research Bulletin No. 51, "Consolidated Financial Statements," addresses consolidation by business enterprises of variable interest entities ("VIEs") that either: (i) do not have sufficient equity investment at risk to permit the entity to finance its activities without additional subordinated financial support, or (ii) are owned by equity investors who lack an essential characteristic of a controlling financial interest. Generally, application of FIN 46-R is required in financial statements of public entities that have interests in structures commonly referred to as special-purpose entities for periods ending after December 15, 2003, and, for other types of VIEs, for periods ending after March 15, 2004. We have reviewed this pronouncement and determined it is not applicable since we do not own or have an investment in any VIEs.