Covad Communications - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=covd.ob


KAUFMAN BROTHERS

Company Note April 8, 2005
Covad Communications Group, Inc. (COVD/OTC) BUY
Communications Services & Technology
Stock Data
Price $1.18
Price Target $5.00
52-Week Range $2.65 - $1.03
YTD S&P Return -2.30%
YTD Stock Return -46%
Float (MM) 256
Avg. Daily Volume 1,259,162
Dividend Yield 0%
Shares Outstanding 261MM
Balance Sheet Date 09/30/2004
Enterprise Value $279.6MM
Market Cap $307.6MM
Net Cash $28.0MM
2004A 2005E 2006E
Revenue (MM) $429A $462 $568
EV/Revenue 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x
EBITDA (MM) $14.7A ($4.0) $74.2
EV/EBITDA 19.0x -69.9x 3.8x
EPS
Mar ($0.06)A ($0.10) —
Jun ($0.03)A ($0.09) —
Sep ($0.07)A ($0.06) —
Dec ($0.10)A ($0.03) —
FY ($0.26)A ($0.27) $0.02
FY P/E — — 59.0x
CY P/E — — 59.0x

Covad Communications provides broadband access and related communications services to businesses and consumers. Covad`s services include a range of high-speed, high-capacity Internet access and related services using DSL,T-1, virtual private network and firewall technologies. Covad`s network covers 96 of the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas and more than 45% of the homes and business in the United States.

DOWN, BUT NOT OUT - REITERATE BUY
• Recent pressure on the stock has been overdone, but it highlights market sentiment. The stock is down nearly 50% year-to-date on what we believe is continued negative sentiment surrounding the company – sentiment that, in our opinion, is unwarranted. We believe that now is the right time to take a fresh look and believe that the stock pullback has been overdone.
• Contributing to the ongoing share pressure was 1Q05 guidance indicating increased losses. While increased spending is necessary for the build-out of the VoIP business, we look for the company to prove its ability to deliver results and improving trends from the VoIP business, and return to cash generation in the not too distant future.
• Recent meetings with management provide continued confidence in business model transition. After spending some time with Covad`s management team, we believe that the strategic transitions from broadband access to integrated voice and data services, and from wholesale distribution to direct distribution are gaining traction and are exceeding expectations.
• Covad pre-released select operational results last night. The company added 14,200 DSL lines and 123 VoIP customers in 1Q05. These results were ahead of our expectations and support our thesis of a stabilization of the core broadband access business and growth from the VoIP business.
• We remain comfortable with our 1Q05 estimates and expect the company to meet its guidance for the quarter. We have not changed our model to reflect these data points as the data is insufficient to draw any specific conclusions other than qualitative support for our bullish thesis. We continue to estimate revenue of $107.9 million, and an EBITDA loss of $9.5 million and EPS of $(0.10).
• We reiterate our BUY rating and $5 price target. We continue to expect the company`s exposure to competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainty to wane and suggest that the recent pullback in the stock is a buying opportunity. The stock is currently trading at 0.7x our 2005 estimated revenues in line with its CLEC peers. However, in our view, the VoIP universe is more representative of Covad`s peer group than the CLECs, as Covad`s opportunity lies in the rollout of its VoIP services and the delivery of voice and data solutions to service providers including the CLECs. Our price target of $5 is based on a 10-year DCF.

Management is committed to this transition and believes that now is the right time to leverage their network to participate in telecom industry trends including regulatory changes, the shift toward hosted IP communications in the SMB marketplace, and demand for enhanced broadband access in support of voice services. Covad pre-released select operational results last night. The company added 14,200 DSL lines and 123 VoIP customers in 1Q05. These results were ahead of our expectations and support our thesis of a stabilization of the core broadband access business and growth from the VoIP business. The VoIP customer count is the metric to focus on. There were 690 VoIP customers at year end, ahead of our 667 estimate. These data points suggest that the company`s VoIP business is gaining the traction we are looking for. Assuming that our ARPU estimate of $1,800 per customer is correct, these additional 23 customers (assuming they were all added on 1/1) could represent as much as an additional $125,000 in revenues for the quarter or 4% upside to our current VoIP revenue estimate. Nevertheless, VoIP billings would still only account for approximately 4% of revenues in the quarter. This data supports our thesis that the company has positioned itself to serve an under-served market and that demand for VoIP solutions in the SMB marketplace should materialize. We are encouraged by this progress and look for qualitative commentary around this progress on the company`s 1Q05 earnings call on April 27, 2005.

The company also reported an addition of 2,300 stations for a total of 23,700. This number is lower than we had projected and implies an average customer size of 34 stations, down from 36 in 4Q04. We are not sure yet what to make of this trend. For the second consecutive quarter the company has added stronger-than-expected customers but fewer-than-expected stations. This trend does demonstrate strong demand for the services, but suggests that Covad`s sweet spot may be among small business rather than medium-size businesses. It is still too early in the development of the VoIP business to draw any conclusions, but this is a trend to keep an eye on. More importantly than this trend, however, will be customer and station ARPU.
Management has suggested that ARPUs are strong and should we see a quarterly uptick in ARPU rather than a decline we have modeled, it could demonstrate the company`s ability to extract greater dollars from its customers than we have projected. We look for further information from the 1Q05 earnings release later this month.
A third consecutive quarter of DSL adds suggest the business may be stabilizing. After beginning 2004 with two quarters of line losses there was concern that the company`s broadband access business was going to bleed away. 1Q05 adds of 14,200 represents the 3rd consecutive quarter of net line additions and is the strongest of the three. While this is a good data point we would not project a significant upside to our revenue estimate from these adds, as anticipated pricing pressure could offset these gains. Nevertheless, we view the trend as a strong data point for our thesis of a stabilization of the core business. Cash burn was lower than projected. Cash burn was guided to accelerate from the prior quarter`s $12.2 million burn rate to a range of $24 to $28 million as the company rolled out its VoIP solution. The company`s reported cash usage of $17.9 million includes proceeds of $7.4 million from the sale of 2,000 shares of ACCA Networks stock. Management plans to continue monetizing this asset over the course of 2005 for about $35 million in proceeds. Adjusting the reported cash burn for these proceeds, the company actually burned $25.3 million in the quarter, in line with guidance and with our $25.2 million estimate.
We remain comfortable with our 1Q05 estimates and expect the company to meet its guidance for the quarter. We have not changed our model to reflect these data points as the data is insufficient to draw any specific conclusions other than qualitative support for our bullish thesis. As discussed above, 1Q05 is expected to be highlighted by increased EBITDA losses due to the ongoing VoIP deployment
spend. The quarter should also reflect some residual Sarbanes Oxley expenses that should be non-recurring. In our view, 1Q05 results should be less of a focus and more attention should be paid to guidance. The company only provides one quarter of guidance but we are looking for improving trends as evidence that 1Q05 may indeed be the trough in losses.

We continue to estimate revenue of $107.9 million, and an EBITDA loss of $9.5 million and EPS of $(0.10). Our estimates, as well as company guidance, are summarized in the exhibits below.

Exhibit 1: Select Financial Estimates
($ in 000s)
Broadband subscriptions Billing 88,718 $ NM 371,492 $ NM 426,739 $ NM
% of Total Billings 92% 0.0% 90% 0.0% 82% 0.0%
VoIP subscriptions Billing 3,332 $ NM 27,093 $ 391.6% 78,408 $ 130.3%
% of Total Billings 3% 0.0% 7% 0.0% 15% 0.0%
High Capacity Circuits Billing 4,078 $ (26.3%) 16,312 $ (18.6%) 16,312 $ 0.0%
Dial-up Billings - $ NM - $ NM - $ NM
Financially Distressed Partners (300) $ NM (1,200) $ NM (1,200) $ NM
Customer rebates and Incentives not subject to deferral (2,000) $ NM (8,000) $ NM (8,000) $ NM
Other revenues, net 14,000 $ 5.8% 56,000 $ 8.2% 56,000 $ 0.0%
Total Revenues 107,828 (0.6%) 461,697 7.6% 568,259 23.1%
Gross Profit 38,990 (3.0%) 183,420 $ 12.5% 269,923 $ 47.2%
Gross Margin 36.2% 1213 b.p. 39.7% 174 b.p. 47.5% 952 b.p.
Total EBITDA (9,532) NM (3,951) $ NM 74,191 $ NM
EBITDA Margin -8.8% 848 b.p. -0.9% (429 b.p.) 13.1% 963 b.p.
EPS (excl. extra. Items) ($0.10) NM ($0.27) NM $0.02 NM
Basic Shares Outstanding 260,584 260,584 260,584

Exhibit 2: Company Guidance
Guidance KBRO Estimate
Total Revenue $105-$109M $108M
Subscriber Line Count +10-15K Lines + 11.5K Lines
Broadband Subscription Billings $87-$90M $89M
VoIP Subscription Billings $2-$3M $3.3M
High Capacity Circuit Billings $3.5-$4.5M $4.1M
EBITDA ($8)-($11)M ($9.5)M
Net Income ($27)-($32)M ($26)M

Takeaways From Recent Management Meeting
Management is exploring an AMEX listing – for better or worse. Management expects to convert a deferred gain of $54 million that resulted from the deconsolidation of BlueStar Communications in 2001. This gain will be recognized in retained earnings resulting in positive retained earnings. As such, the company will become eligible for a listing on the AMEX. We have heard both positive and negative reactions to this idea.
We expect the company to be prudent in exploring its options and encourage management to weigh the various factors carefully before making a decision. While an AMEX listing would expand the base of addressable investors it would also reduce liquidity and could signal a lack of confidence in the ability to execute toward a NASDAQ listing.
We believe that if management focuses on managing its business rather than managing its stock price, the stock will be stronger in longer term. We share management`s frustration with the current price and recent pressure but we remain confident that the company`s strategy is sound and that execution remains key to altering investor perception. That said, an argument can be made both for and against an AMEX listing. No matter which path the company takes the market will decide whether it likes the idea or not. We continue to focus on the company`s opportunity and fundamentals and believe that with or without such a listing the company can deliver value to shareholders. Covad is positioning itself to meet the evolving demands of its partners/customers. While the company is intent on shifting distribution to at least a 50/50% split wholesale/direct, it is clear that wholesale customers will continue to play a role in Covad`s business model. While the company has been hurt by transitioning business models of key customers including AT&T, EarthLink, AOL, and MCI, new services and the company`s transition to a voice and data company have positioned it to continue to serve these customers in new ways. AOL, for example, is expected to renew its efforts to sell broadband service, namely Covad`s DSL. We believe that Covad`s newly introduced Voice Optimized Access (VOA) will help AOL differentiate itself as it rolls out its newly announced VoIP services. EarthLink is expected to trial Covad`s Line Powered Voice service later this year as it explores telephony offerings. Additionally, management believes that the pending SBC/AT&T and Verizon/MCI or Qwest/MCI mergers should have minimal negative impact on its business, and in fact offer opportunity for expanded relationships. We believe that these mergers are a prelude to a nationwide push by the RBOCs and as such they may be looking for out of region partners. Covad, in our view is positioned as a partner of choice given its nationwide network and its existing relationship with all of these entities save Verizon. Although it is still too early to project the impact of any of these opportunities, it is evident that the company is innovating and evolving and looking for means of leveraging its strongest asset, namely its nationwide network. Management recognizes the risk of too great a dependence on wholesale customers and hence its focus on leveraging its VoIP initiative to develop a strong direct distribution channel. Nonetheless, these wholesale partners continue to offer opportunity for the company and we expect these relationships to continue delivering results. The regulatory front is settling down, but is still viewed as an overhang. Over the course of the past year there has been a lot of uncertainty surrounding Covad relating to regulatory changes and the potential impact on the business model. As we have been suggesting since our initiation in December, the company has muted the impact of these regulatory changes through the transition of its business model. Management recognizes that a regulatory driven business model is too risky and cannot support future growth.

While portions of Covad`s model were indeed affected by the evolving regulatory framework, we believe the impacts are minimal. The company, however, is not sitting idly by waiting to see what the effects might be but rather are leveraging these regulatory changes and their nationwide network to create new services. For example, with the introduction of Line Powered Voice, they have created an opportunity out of the elimination of UNE-P. With the exception of the pending mega mergers (i.e. AT&T/SBC) the company does not foresee any other near-term regulatory issues that should impact it. While we do not believe there is such thing as regulatory clarity, we do believe that a period of regulatory stability should be positive for Covad and help lessen the overhang. The company continues to trial wireless technologies as a means of lessening its dependence on the ILECs. Covad has been trialling WiMax as a last mile alternative and is quite encouraged by results to date. They have completed a technical trial in Louisville, Kentucky and are beginning market trials. They expect to
have their first commercial launch by year-end 2005. The company does not plan to replace its entire UNE Loop infrastructure with wireless technology, but rather is planning, initially, to use wireless to fill gaps in its network and to expand its network reach. In addition to lessening its replacement on ILEC, wireless would extend further than DSL can (DSL can only reach 18,000 feet from a CO) thereby
expanding the addressable customer base. Wireless is not expected to become a product offering, but rather a network resource that would enable the company to deliver product to more customers while lessening the regulatory uncertainty associated with leasing last mile copper loops from the ILECs. We reiterate our BUY rating and $5 price target. We continue to believe that as Covad moves up the value chain through offerings such as this and its focus on providing VoIP services to the small and medium business market, its exposure to competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainty should wane and Covad should emerge as a leading provider of integrated voice and data services. We suggest that the recent pullback in the stock is a buying opportunity. The stock is currently trading at 0.7x our 2005 estimated revenues in line with its CLEC peers. However, in our view, the VoIP universe is more representative of Covad`s peer group than the CLECs, as Covad`s opportunity lies in the rollout of its VoIP services and the delivery of voice and data solutions to service providers including the CLECs. Additionally, given the company`s strong balance sheet and trend toward cash flow generation and profitability, we suggest that the 2.3x price/2006 estimated sales implied by our $5.00 price target is reasonable. Our price target is based on a 10-year DCF.

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$1,33, es fängt an zu laufen.

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Dies ist wichtig!!


SBC, AT&T Reach Services Agreements with Covad
Thursday May 5, 2:30 pm ET
Covad Will Extend Broadband Access to Merged Companies, to Enable Expansion of VoIP Services Out-of-Region, Promote Vigorous Competition in Telecommunications Industry


SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 5, 2005--SBC Communications Inc. (NYSE:SBC - News) and AT&T Corp. (NYSE:T - News) together have reached a services agreement under which Covad Communications Group Inc. (OTCBB:COVD - News) would extend broadband access to the merged companies, which would help the combined entity expand Internet protocol (IP) services, including voice-over-Internet-protocol (VoIP), out-of-region to consumers and businesses. The deal, effective upon completion of the SBC and AT&T merger, demonstrates the parties` commitment to promoting vigorous competition in the telecommunications industry among product and service providers.
"Consumers will continue to benefit from competition in the provision of telecommunications services, making them the real winners here," said Mark Keiffer, senior vice president-business marketing for SBC. "And agreements such as these will be especially important in enabling SBC, post-merger, to become a more effective out-of-region competitor. We look forward to working with Covad not only in offering services to consumers and businesses outside of our territory, but in building on the excellent relationship that exists between AT&T and Covad today to work to bring additional services to the market, post-merger."

AT&T entered into a long-term commercial agreement with Covad on Jan. 1, 2002, buying high-speed Internet access services for resale. SBC entered into an agreement for similar services with Covad on Nov. 12, 2001. This new commercial agreement, along with the current contracts, would continue past the completion of the SBC-AT&T merger.

SBC and Covad also signed a separate commercial agreement that covers the provision of line-sharing over copper and remote-terminal facilities in SBC`s territory for a four-year period. Line-sharing allows communications providers like Covad to deploy high-speed DSL broadband on the same line customers use for their voice phone services.

"These agreements are very important to Covad as they ensure that we will continue to be a strong competitor and supplier to AT&T and SBC now and after their merger," said Charles Hoffman, president and chief executive officer of Covad. "It allows the provision of a robust suite of voice and data services over Covad`s extensive network of collocated facilities. In particular, we look forward to supporting the combined company`s out-of-region competitive efforts. We are pleased about the opportunity to continue working with SBC and AT&T, and to be a key supplier for the combined entity."

Covad, based in San Jose, Calif., is a leading nationwide provider of broadband voice and data communications for small and medium businesses, and a key supplier of high-speed Internet access for competitive voice and Internet services providers. Founded in 1996, Covad owns and operates the only nationwide DSL broadband network in the United States.

"Covad has been a valuable supplier," said Regina Egea, AT&T vice president of global access strategy and bandwidth product management. "We`re very pleased that we will continue to utilize the competitively priced and high-quality services and capabilities of Covad once our merger with SBC is completed and the combined company competes to deliver IP, including VoIP, services around the nation."

Other specific terms of the agreements are not disclosed. Completion of the SBC-AT&T merger is expected by the end of this year or early 2006, following all regulatory and governmental approvals.

SBC Communications Inc. is a Fortune 50 company whose subsidiaries, operating under the SBC brand, provide a full range of voice, data, networking, e-business, directory publishing and advertising, and related services to businesses, consumers and other telecommunications providers. SBC holds a 60 percent ownership interest in Cingular Wireless, which serves 50.4 million wireless customers. SBC companies provide high-speed DSL Internet access lines to more American consumers than any other provider and are among the nation`s leading providers of Internet services. SBC companies also offer satellite TV service. Additional information about SBC and SBC products and services is available at www.sbc.com.

For more than 125 years, AT&T (NYSE "T") has been known for unparalleled quality and reliability in communications. Backed by the research and development capabilities of AT&T Labs, the company is a global leader in local, long distance, Internet and transaction-based voice and data services.

Covad Communications is a leading nationwide provider of broadband voice and data communications. The company offers DSL, Voice Over IP, T1, Web hosting, managed security, IP and dial-up, and bundled voice and data services directly through Covad`s network and through Internet Service Providers, value-added resellers, telecommunications carriers and affinity groups to small and medium-sized businesses and home users. Covad broadband services are currently available across the nation in 44 states and 235 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and can be purchased by more than 57 million homes and businesses, which represent over 50 percent of all US homes and businesses. Corporate headquarters is located at 110 Rio Robles San Jose, CA 95134. Telephone: 1-888-GO-COVAD. Web Site: www.covad.com.

About the Proposed SBC/AT&T Merger:

In connection with the proposed transaction, SBC Communications Inc. ("SBC") filed a registration statement, including a proxy statement of AT&T Corp., with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") on March 11, 2005 (File No. 333-123283). Investors are urged to read the registration and proxy statement (including all amendments and supplements to it) because it contains important information. Investors may obtain free copies of the registration and proxy statement, as well as other filings containing information about SBC and AT&T Corp., without charge, at the SEC`s Internet site (www.sec.gov). These documents may also be obtained for free from SBC`s Investor Relations web site (www.sbc.com/investor_relations) or by directing a request to SBC Communications Inc., Stockholder Services, 175 E. Houston, San Antonio, Texas 78205. Copies of AT&T Corp.`s filings may be accessed and downloaded for free at the AT&T Investor Relations Web Site (www.att.com/ir/sec) or by directing a request to AT&T Corp., Investor Relations, One AT&T Way, Bedminster, New Jersey 07921.

SBC, AT&T Corp. and their respective directors and executive officers and other members of management and employees may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from AT&T shareholders in respect of the proposed transaction. Information regarding SBC`s directors and executive officers is available in SBC`s proxy statement for its 2005 annual meeting of stockholders, dated March 11, 2005, and information regarding AT&T Corp.`s directors and executive officers is available in the registration and proxy statement. Additional information regarding the interests of such potential participants is included in the registration and proxy statement and other relevant documents filed with the SEC.