Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 2697)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.517.086 von tommy-hl am 10.10.08 15:22:22Hm, ich hätte mal eine Frage zu Zaruma Resources, die eine X-bagger Aktie ist und stark gefallen ist.
Glencore hat bekanntlich 22 Mio. investiert.
Aber Zaruma bekommt zur Zeit nicht die restlichen Gelder.
Könnte Zaruma eine Erholung beim Kupferpreis abwarten und dann z.B. Anfang 2009 ein PP auflegen ?
Die Frage ist, inwieweit Glencore Schwierigkeiten machen kann und Zaruma evtl. "fressen" kann ?
Glencore hat bekanntlich 22 Mio. investiert.
Aber Zaruma bekommt zur Zeit nicht die restlichen Gelder.
Könnte Zaruma eine Erholung beim Kupferpreis abwarten und dann z.B. Anfang 2009 ein PP auflegen ?
Die Frage ist, inwieweit Glencore Schwierigkeiten machen kann und Zaruma evtl. "fressen" kann ?
Liquiditätskrise auch bedeutet, dass sich Banken, Hedge-Fonds und andere Marktteilnehmer auch vom Rohstoffmärkten ohne Rücksicht auf Verluste oder fundamentale Überlegungen zurückziehen. Ölpreiss hat das niedrigste Preislevel in diesem Jahr erreicht. Was ich sehr negativ finde ist, dass Ölpreiss übertreibung nach unten wird nur in Zukunft nächsten Jahr in Wirtschaft zeigen und damit Ölpreiss konnte durchaus 60 USD Marke erreichen wenn OPEC dagegen nichts tut. Kurzfristig shortsertifikate wäre vielleicht interesant. Weil so wie Markt reagiert hat kann ich nur vermuten, dass Ölpreiss weiter unter 80 USD sinken wird. Das ist interesant aber Angst von Rückgang im Nachfragewachstum hat so richtig nur in crash der letzten Woche gezeigt, was zu solche Rohstoff Verkauf führte und so wie das nur angefangen hat wird das auch so fortsetzen. Leider.
Aus Angst wegen Rückgangs im Nachfragewachstum für das kommende Jahr. Basismetalle erreichen preislichen Niveau von vor funf Jahren. Zink hat am Freitag die Marke 0.56 USD/lb erreicht was natürlich zu Produktionskürzungen führt und teilweise ab dem kommenden Jahr auf ein Angebotsdefizit hindeutet. Kupfer hat 3 Jahres Tief erreicht und wichtige chartechnische unterstutzung gebrochen. und ich vermute Rezessions Angst wird Kupfer Preiss bis zum 5 Jares Tief treiben. Trotzdem gefällt mir Zink immer mehr. 0.5 USD/lb konnte das Boden sein, weil dieses Preiss ist schon unter productions Kosten.
Aus Angst wegen Rückgangs im Nachfragewachstum für das kommende Jahr. Basismetalle erreichen preislichen Niveau von vor funf Jahren. Zink hat am Freitag die Marke 0.56 USD/lb erreicht was natürlich zu Produktionskürzungen führt und teilweise ab dem kommenden Jahr auf ein Angebotsdefizit hindeutet. Kupfer hat 3 Jahres Tief erreicht und wichtige chartechnische unterstutzung gebrochen. und ich vermute Rezessions Angst wird Kupfer Preiss bis zum 5 Jares Tief treiben. Trotzdem gefällt mir Zink immer mehr. 0.5 USD/lb konnte das Boden sein, weil dieses Preiss ist schon unter productions Kosten.
Ich kanns leider nicht ersparen. Wieder 2 Negativmeldungen aus China.
Der grösste Aluminium Produzent signalisiert grosse Produktionskürzungen:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK1797972008…
Scharfer Einbruch des Geschäftsvertrauens-Index. Der grösste seit 2003 während der SARS Epedemie:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK1086422008…
Der grösste Aluminium Produzent signalisiert grosse Produktionskürzungen:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK1797972008…
Scharfer Einbruch des Geschäftsvertrauens-Index. Der grösste seit 2003 während der SARS Epedemie:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK1086422008…
Wieder mal off topic...
Je tiefer die Kurse sinken, umso tiefer sinkt das Niveau in den Börsenboards - hat man so den Eindruck.
Was hier bei W
in den letzten Tagen so für neue Threads aufgemacht wurden. Ich sag nur "Dinge, die die Welt nicht braucht."
Scheint so, dass nicht nur ein Blowout der finanziellen Assets stattfindet...
@tommy
Panic selling ist nie die richtige Entscheidung. Allerdings sollten sich viele der Ratgeber, die jetzt mit diesen Statements kommen mal fragen, was sie in den letzten 9-12 Monaten für Empfehlungen gegeben haben - und zu welchen Kursen. Und wer von denen wenigstens zu Jahresbeginn dazu aufgerufen hat, Cash aufzubauen. Da wird`s dann nämlich mal interessant.
Auf der anderen Seite muss man halt auch sehen, dass wir in einer Situation sind, wo wir so sicher noch nicht waren.
Ich traue mich derzeit nicht eine Prognose abzugeben, wo wir aufschlagen, und wann.
Und vor allem wie stark der Impact in der Realwirtschaft sein wird.
Das betrifft natürlich die mittelfristige Sicht. Kurzfristig wird die Abwärtsbewegung dann stoppen, wenn niemand mehr zu Zwangsverkäufen genötigt ist, um liquide zu bleiben. Mit dem ganzen Rattenschwanz von Margin Calls da hinten dran.
Und bei der Vola, die wir aktuell haben, da kann man davon ausgehen, dass aktuell sicher schon wieder mindestens ein halbes Dutzend Hedge-Fonds am verrecken sind. (Wer bei der Vola 2x gehebelt mit 10-20m$ schiefliegt, der dürfte erledigt sein. Friede seiner Asche kann man da nur sagen.
MfG.
s.
Je tiefer die Kurse sinken, umso tiefer sinkt das Niveau in den Börsenboards - hat man so den Eindruck.
Was hier bei W
in den letzten Tagen so für neue Threads aufgemacht wurden. Ich sag nur "Dinge, die die Welt nicht braucht."
Scheint so, dass nicht nur ein Blowout der finanziellen Assets stattfindet...
@tommy
Panic selling ist nie die richtige Entscheidung. Allerdings sollten sich viele der Ratgeber, die jetzt mit diesen Statements kommen mal fragen, was sie in den letzten 9-12 Monaten für Empfehlungen gegeben haben - und zu welchen Kursen. Und wer von denen wenigstens zu Jahresbeginn dazu aufgerufen hat, Cash aufzubauen. Da wird`s dann nämlich mal interessant.
Auf der anderen Seite muss man halt auch sehen, dass wir in einer Situation sind, wo wir so sicher noch nicht waren.
Ich traue mich derzeit nicht eine Prognose abzugeben, wo wir aufschlagen, und wann.
Und vor allem wie stark der Impact in der Realwirtschaft sein wird.
Das betrifft natürlich die mittelfristige Sicht. Kurzfristig wird die Abwärtsbewegung dann stoppen, wenn niemand mehr zu Zwangsverkäufen genötigt ist, um liquide zu bleiben. Mit dem ganzen Rattenschwanz von Margin Calls da hinten dran.
Und bei der Vola, die wir aktuell haben, da kann man davon ausgehen, dass aktuell sicher schon wieder mindestens ein halbes Dutzend Hedge-Fonds am verrecken sind. (Wer bei der Vola 2x gehebelt mit 10-20m$ schiefliegt, der dürfte erledigt sein. Friede seiner Asche kann man da nur sagen.
MfG.
s.
Bei der miesen Stimmung an den Börsen und unter Investoren, die auf ihre Buchverluste sehen, ist es wichtig einen klaren Kopf zu bewahren.
Nachfolgend ein - wie ich denke -, interessanter Artikel von minesite .... "the market will come back" ...
October 10, 2008 - Lawrence Roulston of Roulston Opportunities
Wise Words For Investors In A Bear Market
We have all heard enough about how bad the financial situation is. There is no question that the markets are in a terrible mess. The U.S. credit crisis is serious, it is spreading, and it’s not going to get better over night. The situation is worse than nearly anyone imagined.
However, there are some bright spots and those bright spots represent investment opportunities.
As so often happens, the markets act like pendulums, swinging from one extreme to the other. A year and a half ago, the U.S. economy was booming, fuelled by a fraud of gigantic proportions that pushed housing prices and debt to absurd levels. The bursting of that housing bubble saw the pendulum swing to the opposite extreme as investors panicked and sold everything.
There may be a long period of transition as the various bailout measures kick in and get the economy back on track. But, let’s not forget that the U.S. has been through a number of difficulties and always manages to muddle along and then recover to be stronger than ever. I don’t believe that the U.S. will ever regain the level of supremacy that it once held in the financial world but the current crisis will pass, as it has every time before.
Look, the U.S. economy is not going to drop into some great black hole in the ground and suck the rest of the world in as some would have you believe.
As far as the rest of the world is concerned, it doesn’t really matter a great deal if the U.S. economy grows by 1 or 2% or shrinks by 1 or 2%.
Looking at the metals: China has been and continues to be the most important driver in the metals markets. Headlines are now screaming out that the Chinese economy is slowing. Those few investors who read beyond the headlines will see that China’s pace of growth has slowed from more than 11% a year to just over 10%.
If you think about it further, you will realize that 10% growth, coming on the larger base, actually represents the same amount of real growth as last year. India is still growing strongly, as is much of Asia. Similarly, the pace of growth is slowing, but is still at a pace that developed countries can only dream of.
Similarly, the popular press trumpets the fall in the oil price. It is only down when stacked up against the spike earlier in the year when speculators pushed it briefly to $140. When measured against the level of a year ago and two years ago, the oil price is up. Huge amounts of money are flowing to oil exporting nations which, like the Asian nations, are building infrastructure.
We constantly hear about the bursting of the commodities bubble. Yet, metal prices are still well above long term trends. Iron ore prices are still rising sharply: and definitely not driven by speculators. The prices are set by producers dealing directly with users.
When President Bush and the Treasury Secretary were trying to sell the bailout package, they painted a picture of dire consequences if the measure did not pass. That message seems to have been taken literally by many investors who are now even more terrified than they were before.
Whether the U.S. grows by a couple of percent, or shrinks by a couple of percent, other parts of the world continue to grow. It is important to note that the emerging markets are far more intensive users of metals that the developed world. The U.S. is more of a service-oriented economy, whereas China and the other developing nations are more heavily involved in building factories, housing, infrastructure and other things that use a lot of metal.
The net result is that world-wide demand for metals continues to grow. New sources of supply are needed to match that growing demand and to replace older mines as they are depleted. Much of the mining industry investment in this cycle has been directed to buying existing production.
The major producing mining companies are being valued on the basis that metal prices will fall hard based on a U.S. recession impacting the rest of the world. That hasn’t happened, and will not happen. And that means that the mining companies are being valued at exceptionally low levels in relation to actual and projected earnings. Teck Cominco represents exceptional value.
The majors have suffered, but the smaller companies have been beaten down to absurdly low levels. We are already seeing takeovers as the larger companies go bargain hunting. The smaller and mid-tier companies are beginning to merge. Those deals will be accretive to shareholder value as they will create larger and stronger companies.
Recovery in the junior mining sector will not be the same for all companies. Those companies that need to raise money in the near term will continue to face real challenges. Many will have to look to joint ventures, asset sales and mergers to find the money they need to move forward.
There are many small companies with defined metal deposits, strong management, and cash. Those companies will come back early in the recovery.
Some commentators worry that there will be no money for mine development. Clearly, if a junior walked into a bank tomorrow and asked to borrow a few hundred million dollars to develop a mine, they would get a rather chilly reception.
However, the smelter companies, the metal trading companies, and the majors are awash in cash and are seeking new supplies. Baja Mining recently completed an $800 million financing package to develop a mine in Mexico. They worked with a consortium of Korean metal companies. The market seems to have missed the fact that Baja’s project is now funded and well on its way to production. Base metal companies are out of favour, making advanced-stage deals like Baja excellent investment opportunities.
Once the panic subsides, there will be a great many banks and other investors who welcome the opportunity to invest in tangible assets instead of the alphabet soup of financial hocus pocus that was on offer for the past few years.
I believe that the current financial mess will result in a return to more fundamental-based investing and that move will benefit mine developers. It won’t happen overnight, but it will come.
The message here is that those juniors that hold metal deposits that can be developed into mines will see a return to more rational values. Those companies that are still hoping to find a metal deposit at some time in the future may have longer to wait.
There is lots of cash available among the larger mining companies. Just looking in Canada, we see Barrick with nearly $2 billion, and Teck, Goldcorp and Inmet all sitting on more than a billion dollars of cash.
What I’m saying here applies equally to precious metals, base metals, minor metals and uranium. We aren’t looking to gains in the commodity prices. We are looking to companies that are adding value to their assets.
The most immediate market action is likely to come in the gold sector.
The cost of the financial bailout in the U.S. is measured in the trillions of dollars. The latest bailout package was $850 billion, including the tax breaks thrown in to get it approved. Add in the earlier bailouts and recognize that nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added $5 trillion dollars of liabilities to the U.S. government, bringing the total debt to $14 trillion.
Don’t forget the on-going wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the huge trade deficit. The dollar was falling sharply before the burden of the bailouts was added. European governments are also conducting bailouts of failed banks.
Ironically, the bailouts have hurt the price of gold. That is a short term reaction, as traders seem to reason: “OK, the U.S. financial system isn’t going to collapse this week, I don’t need to own gold”, and they dump their holdings.
Anybody who takes a longer term perspective will realize that if a government simply keeps spending enormous amounts of money that it doesn’t have on things that do not generate a return for the economy, then the value of the currency will decline.
The whole financial mess, for many investors, has destroyed confidence in the global financial system.
Right now, investors seeking safety are flocking to U.S. treasury bills. That is particularly ironic, as the dollar, in the longer term, will suffer the most from the bailouts and the plummeting confidence. In time, gold will be the biggest beneficiary.
I can’t tell you what the gold price will be tomorrow, or next week or next month. Nobody can. I can tell you with certainty that the gold price will be high enough that the major gold producers will continue to mine it. As long as gold companies are mining gold, they will be looking for new deposits to at least offset the amount mined each year. The juniors will continue to play an important role in finding and developing new gold deposits.
It doesn’t really matter what the gold price is: a new discovery will generate big returns for shareholders of a junior gold company. Advancing a deposit toward production will generate returns for shareholders of a junior gold company.
It’s not hard to make the case that the situation in the junior mining sector will improve in time. Of course, we all want to know precisely when the markets will turn around.
Just remember that the situation always looks bleakest at the bottom of the market and it looks rosiest at the top of the market. It requires a lot of nerve to invest contrary to what appears to be the right thing to do. At present, at least on the surface, this appears to be a really bad time to be investing. And that makes it the best time to be buying.
The greatest gains come from buying at the bottom of the markets and selling at the tops. That means buying when prevailing wisdom says it is a bad time.
We will never know exactly when the bottom is. Here are some things to consider at present. Over the past few weeks, Warren Buffet has invested $12.7 billion into the markets, including $5 billion into Goldman Sachs, one of the investment banks. The popular press thinks it strange that Buffet is investing at a time when things are so bad. But, that is precisely how he became the world’s richest investor.
Other signs that the worst may be over: the U.S. bailout has been approved. It will take some weeks for the program to be implemented, but at least bankers know there will be relief coming. The failed banks are being snapped up quickly by other banks. In the latest deal, Citigroup tried to scoop up Wachovia within a day of its collapsing, but they were outbid by Wells Fargo.
Citigroup, which had the smarts to avoid the moves that led other banks into trouble, published a report last month that examined the commodities. They concluded: "It is important not to lose sight of the long term picture. We regard these conditions as a correction ... in a secular bull market. The drivers of the super cycle - urbanisation and industrialization in China and supply shortfalls are intact. Indeed the next up-cycle could be even more powerful than its predecessor."
If that report had come from one of the failed banks, I would not have paid much attention. Citi had enough smarts to avoid the mistakes that overtook so many of the other banks.
Investors are not going to suddenly rush back into the junior resource markets. But, those who buy the solid companies at the present severely depressed prices stand to enjoy big gains in the fullness of time.
The most immediate reaction will come from within the industry. Smaller companies will merge in deals that add shareholder value. The larger companies will be taking over smaller companies with good deposits.
To give an indication of the valuations: At present, major gold companies are valued on the basis of just under $200 per ounce of total gold resources. Juniors, on average, are valued at a mere $29 per ounce. At prices like that, the juniors must look extremely enticing to the larger companies. Obviously, there would be takeover premiums that would generate returns from the current price levels.
Companies like CGA Mining, which is close to production, look very attractive.Another interesting area is platinum: the price is down 60% from the $2,300 level earlier this year. Demand is growing and supplies are constrained. The market was clobbered by a big selloff by a platinum ETF. Eastern Platinum is making big profits even at the current price and will do very well with a rebound.
It’s a similar situation for silver: development stories like Bear Creek, small producers like Aurcana and Great Panther.
Uranium is going to come back in the not too distant future. Hathor has made a very important discovery and is not getting full value. Soon enough, investors will again wake up to the fact there is an energy shortage and uranium stocks will again become popular.
Panic selling at this stage is definitely the wrong thing to do. Taking advantage of the panic selling of others could net you some good companies at attractive prices. Be selective. Be patient. The market will come back.
.
Nachfolgend ein - wie ich denke -, interessanter Artikel von minesite .... "the market will come back" ...
October 10, 2008 - Lawrence Roulston of Roulston Opportunities
Wise Words For Investors In A Bear Market
We have all heard enough about how bad the financial situation is. There is no question that the markets are in a terrible mess. The U.S. credit crisis is serious, it is spreading, and it’s not going to get better over night. The situation is worse than nearly anyone imagined.
However, there are some bright spots and those bright spots represent investment opportunities.
As so often happens, the markets act like pendulums, swinging from one extreme to the other. A year and a half ago, the U.S. economy was booming, fuelled by a fraud of gigantic proportions that pushed housing prices and debt to absurd levels. The bursting of that housing bubble saw the pendulum swing to the opposite extreme as investors panicked and sold everything.
There may be a long period of transition as the various bailout measures kick in and get the economy back on track. But, let’s not forget that the U.S. has been through a number of difficulties and always manages to muddle along and then recover to be stronger than ever. I don’t believe that the U.S. will ever regain the level of supremacy that it once held in the financial world but the current crisis will pass, as it has every time before.
Look, the U.S. economy is not going to drop into some great black hole in the ground and suck the rest of the world in as some would have you believe.
As far as the rest of the world is concerned, it doesn’t really matter a great deal if the U.S. economy grows by 1 or 2% or shrinks by 1 or 2%.
Looking at the metals: China has been and continues to be the most important driver in the metals markets. Headlines are now screaming out that the Chinese economy is slowing. Those few investors who read beyond the headlines will see that China’s pace of growth has slowed from more than 11% a year to just over 10%.
If you think about it further, you will realize that 10% growth, coming on the larger base, actually represents the same amount of real growth as last year. India is still growing strongly, as is much of Asia. Similarly, the pace of growth is slowing, but is still at a pace that developed countries can only dream of.
Similarly, the popular press trumpets the fall in the oil price. It is only down when stacked up against the spike earlier in the year when speculators pushed it briefly to $140. When measured against the level of a year ago and two years ago, the oil price is up. Huge amounts of money are flowing to oil exporting nations which, like the Asian nations, are building infrastructure.
We constantly hear about the bursting of the commodities bubble. Yet, metal prices are still well above long term trends. Iron ore prices are still rising sharply: and definitely not driven by speculators. The prices are set by producers dealing directly with users.
When President Bush and the Treasury Secretary were trying to sell the bailout package, they painted a picture of dire consequences if the measure did not pass. That message seems to have been taken literally by many investors who are now even more terrified than they were before.
Whether the U.S. grows by a couple of percent, or shrinks by a couple of percent, other parts of the world continue to grow. It is important to note that the emerging markets are far more intensive users of metals that the developed world. The U.S. is more of a service-oriented economy, whereas China and the other developing nations are more heavily involved in building factories, housing, infrastructure and other things that use a lot of metal.
The net result is that world-wide demand for metals continues to grow. New sources of supply are needed to match that growing demand and to replace older mines as they are depleted. Much of the mining industry investment in this cycle has been directed to buying existing production.
The major producing mining companies are being valued on the basis that metal prices will fall hard based on a U.S. recession impacting the rest of the world. That hasn’t happened, and will not happen. And that means that the mining companies are being valued at exceptionally low levels in relation to actual and projected earnings. Teck Cominco represents exceptional value.
The majors have suffered, but the smaller companies have been beaten down to absurdly low levels. We are already seeing takeovers as the larger companies go bargain hunting. The smaller and mid-tier companies are beginning to merge. Those deals will be accretive to shareholder value as they will create larger and stronger companies.
Recovery in the junior mining sector will not be the same for all companies. Those companies that need to raise money in the near term will continue to face real challenges. Many will have to look to joint ventures, asset sales and mergers to find the money they need to move forward.
There are many small companies with defined metal deposits, strong management, and cash. Those companies will come back early in the recovery.
Some commentators worry that there will be no money for mine development. Clearly, if a junior walked into a bank tomorrow and asked to borrow a few hundred million dollars to develop a mine, they would get a rather chilly reception.
However, the smelter companies, the metal trading companies, and the majors are awash in cash and are seeking new supplies. Baja Mining recently completed an $800 million financing package to develop a mine in Mexico. They worked with a consortium of Korean metal companies. The market seems to have missed the fact that Baja’s project is now funded and well on its way to production. Base metal companies are out of favour, making advanced-stage deals like Baja excellent investment opportunities.
Once the panic subsides, there will be a great many banks and other investors who welcome the opportunity to invest in tangible assets instead of the alphabet soup of financial hocus pocus that was on offer for the past few years.
I believe that the current financial mess will result in a return to more fundamental-based investing and that move will benefit mine developers. It won’t happen overnight, but it will come.
The message here is that those juniors that hold metal deposits that can be developed into mines will see a return to more rational values. Those companies that are still hoping to find a metal deposit at some time in the future may have longer to wait.
There is lots of cash available among the larger mining companies. Just looking in Canada, we see Barrick with nearly $2 billion, and Teck, Goldcorp and Inmet all sitting on more than a billion dollars of cash.
What I’m saying here applies equally to precious metals, base metals, minor metals and uranium. We aren’t looking to gains in the commodity prices. We are looking to companies that are adding value to their assets.
The most immediate market action is likely to come in the gold sector.
The cost of the financial bailout in the U.S. is measured in the trillions of dollars. The latest bailout package was $850 billion, including the tax breaks thrown in to get it approved. Add in the earlier bailouts and recognize that nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added $5 trillion dollars of liabilities to the U.S. government, bringing the total debt to $14 trillion.
Don’t forget the on-going wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the huge trade deficit. The dollar was falling sharply before the burden of the bailouts was added. European governments are also conducting bailouts of failed banks.
Ironically, the bailouts have hurt the price of gold. That is a short term reaction, as traders seem to reason: “OK, the U.S. financial system isn’t going to collapse this week, I don’t need to own gold”, and they dump their holdings.
Anybody who takes a longer term perspective will realize that if a government simply keeps spending enormous amounts of money that it doesn’t have on things that do not generate a return for the economy, then the value of the currency will decline.
The whole financial mess, for many investors, has destroyed confidence in the global financial system.
Right now, investors seeking safety are flocking to U.S. treasury bills. That is particularly ironic, as the dollar, in the longer term, will suffer the most from the bailouts and the plummeting confidence. In time, gold will be the biggest beneficiary.
I can’t tell you what the gold price will be tomorrow, or next week or next month. Nobody can. I can tell you with certainty that the gold price will be high enough that the major gold producers will continue to mine it. As long as gold companies are mining gold, they will be looking for new deposits to at least offset the amount mined each year. The juniors will continue to play an important role in finding and developing new gold deposits.
It doesn’t really matter what the gold price is: a new discovery will generate big returns for shareholders of a junior gold company. Advancing a deposit toward production will generate returns for shareholders of a junior gold company.
It’s not hard to make the case that the situation in the junior mining sector will improve in time. Of course, we all want to know precisely when the markets will turn around.
Just remember that the situation always looks bleakest at the bottom of the market and it looks rosiest at the top of the market. It requires a lot of nerve to invest contrary to what appears to be the right thing to do. At present, at least on the surface, this appears to be a really bad time to be investing. And that makes it the best time to be buying.
The greatest gains come from buying at the bottom of the markets and selling at the tops. That means buying when prevailing wisdom says it is a bad time.
We will never know exactly when the bottom is. Here are some things to consider at present. Over the past few weeks, Warren Buffet has invested $12.7 billion into the markets, including $5 billion into Goldman Sachs, one of the investment banks. The popular press thinks it strange that Buffet is investing at a time when things are so bad. But, that is precisely how he became the world’s richest investor.
Other signs that the worst may be over: the U.S. bailout has been approved. It will take some weeks for the program to be implemented, but at least bankers know there will be relief coming. The failed banks are being snapped up quickly by other banks. In the latest deal, Citigroup tried to scoop up Wachovia within a day of its collapsing, but they were outbid by Wells Fargo.
Citigroup, which had the smarts to avoid the moves that led other banks into trouble, published a report last month that examined the commodities. They concluded: "It is important not to lose sight of the long term picture. We regard these conditions as a correction ... in a secular bull market. The drivers of the super cycle - urbanisation and industrialization in China and supply shortfalls are intact. Indeed the next up-cycle could be even more powerful than its predecessor."
If that report had come from one of the failed banks, I would not have paid much attention. Citi had enough smarts to avoid the mistakes that overtook so many of the other banks.
Investors are not going to suddenly rush back into the junior resource markets. But, those who buy the solid companies at the present severely depressed prices stand to enjoy big gains in the fullness of time.
The most immediate reaction will come from within the industry. Smaller companies will merge in deals that add shareholder value. The larger companies will be taking over smaller companies with good deposits.
To give an indication of the valuations: At present, major gold companies are valued on the basis of just under $200 per ounce of total gold resources. Juniors, on average, are valued at a mere $29 per ounce. At prices like that, the juniors must look extremely enticing to the larger companies. Obviously, there would be takeover premiums that would generate returns from the current price levels.
Companies like CGA Mining, which is close to production, look very attractive.Another interesting area is platinum: the price is down 60% from the $2,300 level earlier this year. Demand is growing and supplies are constrained. The market was clobbered by a big selloff by a platinum ETF. Eastern Platinum is making big profits even at the current price and will do very well with a rebound.
It’s a similar situation for silver: development stories like Bear Creek, small producers like Aurcana and Great Panther.
Uranium is going to come back in the not too distant future. Hathor has made a very important discovery and is not getting full value. Soon enough, investors will again wake up to the fact there is an energy shortage and uranium stocks will again become popular.
Panic selling at this stage is definitely the wrong thing to do. Taking advantage of the panic selling of others could net you some good companies at attractive prices. Be selective. Be patient. The market will come back.
.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.501.689 von tommy-hl am 09.10.08 20:26:41Ich habe damit auch noch Probleme. Wie ich es verstehe, ist es wie folgt...
Wenn Du die Aktie in Frankfurt kaufst, dann ist das der ganz normale Common Share.
Zusätzlich dazu werden demnächst "B" und "C" Aktien ausgegeben. Über diese Aktien kann man die Barausschüttung bekommen. Man muss im Vorfeld wählen, ob man B oder C will. Wobei C kontigentiert ist. Bei B bekommt man die Ausschüttung sofort, bei C zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt. Da gibt es aber ein "spätestens bis...".
Der genaue Zeitpunkt der Ausschüttung und das Formular zur Wahl werden noch übermittelt.
2 Sachen sind mir auch noch nicht 100%-ig klar. Einmal, ob und inwieweit die Ausschüttung steuerpflichtig ist - ich gehe davon aus.
Und dann, bei dieser gewählten Konstruktion, ob es einen Dividendenabschlag bei der normalen Aktie geben wird. Also einen Ex-Tag. Müsste eigentlich auch der Fall sein.
Ich will ja selber auch noch was kaufen. Aber NACH dem Abschlag. Und ohne Steuern zahlen zu müssen.
Gruss
s.
Wenn Du die Aktie in Frankfurt kaufst, dann ist das der ganz normale Common Share.
Zusätzlich dazu werden demnächst "B" und "C" Aktien ausgegeben. Über diese Aktien kann man die Barausschüttung bekommen. Man muss im Vorfeld wählen, ob man B oder C will. Wobei C kontigentiert ist. Bei B bekommt man die Ausschüttung sofort, bei C zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt. Da gibt es aber ein "spätestens bis...".
Der genaue Zeitpunkt der Ausschüttung und das Formular zur Wahl werden noch übermittelt.
2 Sachen sind mir auch noch nicht 100%-ig klar. Einmal, ob und inwieweit die Ausschüttung steuerpflichtig ist - ich gehe davon aus.
Und dann, bei dieser gewählten Konstruktion, ob es einen Dividendenabschlag bei der normalen Aktie geben wird. Also einen Ex-Tag. Müsste eigentlich auch der Fall sein.
Ich will ja selber auch noch was kaufen. Aber NACH dem Abschlag. Und ohne Steuern zahlen zu müssen.
Gruss
s.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.501.263 von stupidgame am 09.10.08 20:03:53Hi stupidgame,
ich habe mal Erklärungsnot zu London Mining und bitte um Antwort bzw. Korrektur:
1. Aktien
Es wird in "B" und "C" Aktien unterschieden. Wenn ich Aktien in Frankfurt kaufe, um welche Art von Aktie handelt es sich?
2. Dividende
Für B und C-Aktien soll irgendwie Dividende ausgezahlt werden. Wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe sollen das 200 pence pro Aktie sein, also rund EUR 2,50 bei einem Aktienkurs von ca. EUR 2,85, ist das richtig?
Wann soll die Dividende ausgezahlt werden? Gibt es einen Termin?
Danke + Gruß
Tommy
ich habe mal Erklärungsnot zu London Mining und bitte um Antwort bzw. Korrektur:
1. Aktien
Es wird in "B" und "C" Aktien unterschieden. Wenn ich Aktien in Frankfurt kaufe, um welche Art von Aktie handelt es sich?
2. Dividende
Für B und C-Aktien soll irgendwie Dividende ausgezahlt werden. Wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe sollen das 200 pence pro Aktie sein, also rund EUR 2,50 bei einem Aktienkurs von ca. EUR 2,85, ist das richtig?
Wann soll die Dividende ausgezahlt werden? Gibt es einen Termin?
Danke + Gruß
Tommy
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.501.039 von tommy-hl am 09.10.08 19:50:57Hallo tommy!
Der Deal mit Wits Basin scheint anzulaufen. Meldung von vor 2 Stunden: (WITM Aktie zieht deutlich an.)
London Mining Agrees to $5 Million Escrow with Wits Basin
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 09, 2008 10:49 AM
- BusinessWire
MINNEAPOLIS, Oct 09, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc. (WITM) announced today that London Mining Plc and Wits Basin have entered into an escrow agreement whereby London Mining will deposit US$5,000,000 for the benefit of the parties' proposed joint venture to purchase the Maanshan Xiaonanshan iron ore mine and the Nanjing Sudan processing plant (collectively known as the Xiaonanshan Mine) located in the Anhui Province in the People's Republic of China.
Under the terms of the escrow agreement, London Mining will deposit US$5,000,000 now; upon finalization and execution of a joint venture agreement and the completion of due diligence and certain conditions, they would fund an additional US$40,000,000, whereby they would receive a 50 percent equity interest in China Global Mining Resources Ltd., which holds the rights to acquire the Xiaonanshan Mine. The escrow agreement establishes a timeline for the purchase of the Xiaonanshan Mine to occur on or before October 31, 2008.
"We intend to complete this transaction by the end of this month," commented Wits Basin CEO Stephen D. King. "London Mining personnel have already made site visits to the Xiaonanshan Mine properties and while there met with key members of our geological and operational management team. We, along with our legal counsel and accounting teams, will continue to put forth every effort necessary to finalize this purchase."
About London Mining Plc
London Mining Plc is incorporated and registered in the United Kingdom and is developing mines to supply the global steel industry. The Company has iron ore and coal mining development projects located in Saudi Arabia, Greenland, South Africa, Sierra Leone, and Mexico. It has total iron ore resources of 1.3 billion tonnes containing an estimated 459 metric tonnes of iron. In 2007, London Mining raised over US$185 million to advance iron ore production from its projects. In August 2008 London Mining sold its Brazilian operation to Arcelor Mittal for US$810 million and announced a return to shareholders of GBP220 million with the balance of funds received allocated to existing and new projects.
London Mining is listed on the Oslo Axess, a marketplace regulated by the Oslo Stock Exchange. The company trades under the Reuters symbol LOND.OL and Bloomberg symbol LOND:NO. For more information about the company and its operations, please visit their website at www.londonmining.co.uk.
About Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc.: Wits Basin is a minerals exploration and development company holding interests in three exploration projects and currently does not claim to have any mineral reserves on any project. Its common stock trades on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol "WITM." To find out more about Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc. (WITM) visit our website at www.witsbasin.com.
Der Deal mit Wits Basin scheint anzulaufen. Meldung von vor 2 Stunden: (WITM Aktie zieht deutlich an.)
London Mining Agrees to $5 Million Escrow with Wits Basin
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 09, 2008 10:49 AM
- BusinessWire
MINNEAPOLIS, Oct 09, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc. (WITM) announced today that London Mining Plc and Wits Basin have entered into an escrow agreement whereby London Mining will deposit US$5,000,000 for the benefit of the parties' proposed joint venture to purchase the Maanshan Xiaonanshan iron ore mine and the Nanjing Sudan processing plant (collectively known as the Xiaonanshan Mine) located in the Anhui Province in the People's Republic of China.
Under the terms of the escrow agreement, London Mining will deposit US$5,000,000 now; upon finalization and execution of a joint venture agreement and the completion of due diligence and certain conditions, they would fund an additional US$40,000,000, whereby they would receive a 50 percent equity interest in China Global Mining Resources Ltd., which holds the rights to acquire the Xiaonanshan Mine. The escrow agreement establishes a timeline for the purchase of the Xiaonanshan Mine to occur on or before October 31, 2008.
"We intend to complete this transaction by the end of this month," commented Wits Basin CEO Stephen D. King. "London Mining personnel have already made site visits to the Xiaonanshan Mine properties and while there met with key members of our geological and operational management team. We, along with our legal counsel and accounting teams, will continue to put forth every effort necessary to finalize this purchase."
About London Mining Plc
London Mining Plc is incorporated and registered in the United Kingdom and is developing mines to supply the global steel industry. The Company has iron ore and coal mining development projects located in Saudi Arabia, Greenland, South Africa, Sierra Leone, and Mexico. It has total iron ore resources of 1.3 billion tonnes containing an estimated 459 metric tonnes of iron. In 2007, London Mining raised over US$185 million to advance iron ore production from its projects. In August 2008 London Mining sold its Brazilian operation to Arcelor Mittal for US$810 million and announced a return to shareholders of GBP220 million with the balance of funds received allocated to existing and new projects.
London Mining is listed on the Oslo Axess, a marketplace regulated by the Oslo Stock Exchange. The company trades under the Reuters symbol LOND.OL and Bloomberg symbol LOND:NO. For more information about the company and its operations, please visit their website at www.londonmining.co.uk.
About Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc.: Wits Basin is a minerals exploration and development company holding interests in three exploration projects and currently does not claim to have any mineral reserves on any project. Its common stock trades on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol "WITM." To find out more about Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc. (WITM) visit our website at www.witsbasin.com.
Artikel zu London Mining von minesite:
October 09, 2008 - by Alastair Ford
London Mining’s Global Portfolio Of Iron Ore, Coal And Cash Should Help Keep It Afloat In The Difficult Times Ahead
Over the past couple of weeks here at Minesite we’ve had plenty to say about the legal comings and goings over the partially disputed Marampa iron ore project in Sierra Leone. The convoluted three way argument between African Minerals, Cape Lambert and London Mining has been great fun to watch, as one way or another various aspects of the dispute have involved heroin, cocaine, forged documents, bureaucratic headaches, over-staking, over-confidence, and plenty of other claims and counter-claims. In the end though, as far as London Mining’s concerned at any rate, there’s actually more to life than getting the lawyers fired up over Marampa.
Marampa looks nice enough, and London Mining is confident it will win its legal tussle with African Minerals over the disputed part of it. If so, Norwegian broker Pareto Securities reckons the company ought to be ready to move into production by 2010, with a reasonably fast ramp up to the stated goal of three million tonnes per year.
That said, there are plenty of other strings to London Mining’s bow. It’s currently also working up iron ore projects in Mexico, Greenland, and Saudi Arabia, and coal in South Africa, and Colombia. It also has a “potential” joint venture with Wits Basin which may see it move into iron ore production in China. There’s iron ore and coal a-plenty in the company’s portfolio, development potential and near-term production. Not that you’d know it from the way the market is pricing the shares at the moment.
According to Pareto, taken together London Mining’s assets generate a sum of the parts valuation of NOK69.1 per share, or 660p. That’s a long way north of the NOK30.00, or 287p at which the shares are currently trading. The broker actually sets a slightly more modest price target, at NOK55.00 (526p), perhaps reflecting the prevailing reality that whatever you think you’re worth, someone else always wants to pay less.
And just to dwell on that theme for a second, there’s no doubt that the US$810 million flip of the company’s Brazilian iron ore assets earlier in the year was a hugely successful bit of business for Chris Brown and London Mining, but it’s nonetheless interesting to note that rival Norwegian broking house Kaupthing had put a US$1.2 billion valuation on those assets.
Still, money in the bank is certainly worth more than discounted valuations on any analyst’s model, and the net result of the deal with ArcelorMittal was to put US$810 million into London Mining’s coffers at a time when markets look set to wipe out any companies that aren’t seriously cashed up.
US$427 million of that money is going straight back to shareholders in the form of the special dividend. But US$345 million remains, after costs and loan repayments are deducted, meaning that, in common with many a mining junior the world over, London Mining is actually now trading at a discount to its cash in the bank.
That cash amounts to NOK37.3 per share, according to Pareto, or 356p. So the simple mathematics, in UK currency to keep it simple, is that for every London Mining share you buy at 287p, you get 356p in cash – an immediate value add of 69p – as well as exposure to a global portfolio of coal and iron ore.
Of that portfolio, the most interesting is perhaps the Saudi project, a 50:50 joint venture with a well-connected local royal type, which it’s hoped can be worked up in fairly rapid time into a five million tonnes per year iron ore pellet operation, ideally placed to supply the Saudi demand for steel. A bankable feasibility study is due on that by the end of the year.
The coal in Colombia is a recent move, and for US$5 million London Mining now holds a 20 per cent stake in an inferred resource of 118 million tons of metallurgical and high quality steam coal, with a further 400 million tons of what’s called “geological potential”. Cash flow from coking coal production from these investments is described as “near-term”.
The coal in South Africa, which will go out through an already-allocated terminal in Mozambique, is held through an equity stake in DMC Energy, secured at a cost of US$120 million. There’s several hundred million tons of coal here, too, located nice and conveniently near to two Eskom coal-fired power stations. DMC is also in the process of expanding into Botswana, Zimbabwe and Swaziland. Meanwhile, for an initial US$7 million investment, London Mining has also picked up a stake in the El Artillero iron ore property in Mexico, which ought to be in production, on a modest scale, by early next year.
All that should be enough to keep Chris Brown out of mischief, and with a bit of hard graft London Mining’s shares won’t stay underwater for long. And even if London Mining’s shares are steeply discounted, at least Chris appears to be having a lot more fun than most of his former colleagues at Williams de Broe, desperately scrabbling around for business in this crazy market. Which is nice. For him, at least.
October 09, 2008 - by Alastair Ford
London Mining’s Global Portfolio Of Iron Ore, Coal And Cash Should Help Keep It Afloat In The Difficult Times Ahead
Over the past couple of weeks here at Minesite we’ve had plenty to say about the legal comings and goings over the partially disputed Marampa iron ore project in Sierra Leone. The convoluted three way argument between African Minerals, Cape Lambert and London Mining has been great fun to watch, as one way or another various aspects of the dispute have involved heroin, cocaine, forged documents, bureaucratic headaches, over-staking, over-confidence, and plenty of other claims and counter-claims. In the end though, as far as London Mining’s concerned at any rate, there’s actually more to life than getting the lawyers fired up over Marampa.
Marampa looks nice enough, and London Mining is confident it will win its legal tussle with African Minerals over the disputed part of it. If so, Norwegian broker Pareto Securities reckons the company ought to be ready to move into production by 2010, with a reasonably fast ramp up to the stated goal of three million tonnes per year.
That said, there are plenty of other strings to London Mining’s bow. It’s currently also working up iron ore projects in Mexico, Greenland, and Saudi Arabia, and coal in South Africa, and Colombia. It also has a “potential” joint venture with Wits Basin which may see it move into iron ore production in China. There’s iron ore and coal a-plenty in the company’s portfolio, development potential and near-term production. Not that you’d know it from the way the market is pricing the shares at the moment.
According to Pareto, taken together London Mining’s assets generate a sum of the parts valuation of NOK69.1 per share, or 660p. That’s a long way north of the NOK30.00, or 287p at which the shares are currently trading. The broker actually sets a slightly more modest price target, at NOK55.00 (526p), perhaps reflecting the prevailing reality that whatever you think you’re worth, someone else always wants to pay less.
And just to dwell on that theme for a second, there’s no doubt that the US$810 million flip of the company’s Brazilian iron ore assets earlier in the year was a hugely successful bit of business for Chris Brown and London Mining, but it’s nonetheless interesting to note that rival Norwegian broking house Kaupthing had put a US$1.2 billion valuation on those assets.
Still, money in the bank is certainly worth more than discounted valuations on any analyst’s model, and the net result of the deal with ArcelorMittal was to put US$810 million into London Mining’s coffers at a time when markets look set to wipe out any companies that aren’t seriously cashed up.
US$427 million of that money is going straight back to shareholders in the form of the special dividend. But US$345 million remains, after costs and loan repayments are deducted, meaning that, in common with many a mining junior the world over, London Mining is actually now trading at a discount to its cash in the bank.
That cash amounts to NOK37.3 per share, according to Pareto, or 356p. So the simple mathematics, in UK currency to keep it simple, is that for every London Mining share you buy at 287p, you get 356p in cash – an immediate value add of 69p – as well as exposure to a global portfolio of coal and iron ore.
Of that portfolio, the most interesting is perhaps the Saudi project, a 50:50 joint venture with a well-connected local royal type, which it’s hoped can be worked up in fairly rapid time into a five million tonnes per year iron ore pellet operation, ideally placed to supply the Saudi demand for steel. A bankable feasibility study is due on that by the end of the year.
The coal in Colombia is a recent move, and for US$5 million London Mining now holds a 20 per cent stake in an inferred resource of 118 million tons of metallurgical and high quality steam coal, with a further 400 million tons of what’s called “geological potential”. Cash flow from coking coal production from these investments is described as “near-term”.
The coal in South Africa, which will go out through an already-allocated terminal in Mozambique, is held through an equity stake in DMC Energy, secured at a cost of US$120 million. There’s several hundred million tons of coal here, too, located nice and conveniently near to two Eskom coal-fired power stations. DMC is also in the process of expanding into Botswana, Zimbabwe and Swaziland. Meanwhile, for an initial US$7 million investment, London Mining has also picked up a stake in the El Artillero iron ore property in Mexico, which ought to be in production, on a modest scale, by early next year.
All that should be enough to keep Chris Brown out of mischief, and with a bit of hard graft London Mining’s shares won’t stay underwater for long. And even if London Mining’s shares are steeply discounted, at least Chris appears to be having a lot more fun than most of his former colleagues at Williams de Broe, desperately scrabbling around for business in this crazy market. Which is nice. For him, at least.
Chromex hält sich in diesem negativen Umfeld erstaunlich gut ...
October 09, 2008 By Charles Wyatt
The Rating Of Chromex Mining Reflects Acceleration In Both Production And Cash Flow
When we last wrote about AIM listed Chromex Mining a year ago the company was going through a very frustrating time awaiting the outcome of a dispute with the South African Department of Mines & Energy over rights to the Mecklenburg chrome deposit on the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex. Nigel Wyatt, who was chief executive at the time, had carried out a positive bankable feasibility study on the project and then applied to have its New Order Prospecting Right changed to a new order Mining Right.
Usually this is just a formality so Nigel just about fell off his chair when informed at that late stage that another company was claiming ownership. It would appear that the South African authorities did not smell a rate in the fact that the claimant had waited until Chromex had spent a goodly amount of money on this study before making a move.
It took a while before sanity prevailed – until July this year to be exact - but Nigel stuck to his guns and finally the mining right was awarded. Apprently a 14 month waiting period is considered the norm by the South African authorities which says something about the state of the country. In the meantime a 51 per cent stake had been purchased in Ilitha Mining (Pty) Limited, which owns the 271 hectare Stellite project and agreement was subsequently reached to buy the balance so Chromex now owns 100 per cent of the project.
It is a 15 million tonne chrome project on the western limb of the Bushveld Complex and its mining rights were in place when the transaction took place. By this time Nigel Wyatt had made way for Russell Lamming as chief executive and he threw every last ounce of energy into getting Stellite into production as soon as possible.
The Stellite project is located on the western limb of the Bushveld Complex and its acquisition means that Chromex now has 24 million tonnes of resources under its control. Stellite is an open cast mine and mining, using contract miners, actually started towards the end of July. Initially the plan was to sell run-of mine ore but a mobile crushing and screening has now been installed on site and the cash flow from the part-beneficiated ore will be used to build a processing plant at a price of around £5.5 million at current currency rates according to Russell Lamming.
Fortunately Chromex raised £4.5 million back in May and still has some cash in the kitty so should be able to stick by its forecast that this new plant will be operating by the end of the year.
Last month the company concluded its first sale of 8,500 tonnes of chrome lump, chip and reported an operating profit on its first month of production. The fact that it stockpiled ore until the plant was in place meant that it sold no run-of-mine ore and this is expected to boost revenue by 75 per cent with only a marginal increase in operating costs.
Just as important it has now raised its target of run-of-mine output at full production by the end of February 2009 from 30,000 tonnnes to 70,000 tonnes. This increase in the planned production rate at Stellite will require a similar increase in the capacity of the processing plant but Russell Lamming still expects to have the bigger plant commissioned within four months.
With initial cash flow under his belt Russell can now shift focus to the Mecklenburg project on which a bankable feasibility study was completed in March 2007. The current plan is to mine the LG-6 and LG-6A chromite reefs which comprise approximately 9.6 million tonnes and 5.7 million tonnes of chromite resources and reserves respectively. Target production is 40,000 tonnes of beneficiated ore by the end of 2009 and the current mine life is estimated at 10 years using mechanised mining methods.
Now that the mining right has been signed the next stage is to sign contracts for water supplies and electricity so it is fortunate indeed that the location of the project will allow it to tap into the water, electricity and the tailings infrastructure at Anglo Platinum’s Twickenham mine. The plant is being re-costed but it appears that prices for chromite ore, which Russell claims are still robust will outweigh any increase in production costs to the benefit of profits.
There is no getting away from the fact that some funds will have to be raised, but he reckons that cash flow from Stellite should pay for around 80 per cent of the capex requirement leaving a modest balance which should not be difficult to raise. Chromex is a company that has transformed itself over the past year and its shares have just about doubled since February which is more than most of its peers can claim.
October 09, 2008 By Charles Wyatt
The Rating Of Chromex Mining Reflects Acceleration In Both Production And Cash Flow
When we last wrote about AIM listed Chromex Mining a year ago the company was going through a very frustrating time awaiting the outcome of a dispute with the South African Department of Mines & Energy over rights to the Mecklenburg chrome deposit on the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex. Nigel Wyatt, who was chief executive at the time, had carried out a positive bankable feasibility study on the project and then applied to have its New Order Prospecting Right changed to a new order Mining Right.
Usually this is just a formality so Nigel just about fell off his chair when informed at that late stage that another company was claiming ownership. It would appear that the South African authorities did not smell a rate in the fact that the claimant had waited until Chromex had spent a goodly amount of money on this study before making a move.
It took a while before sanity prevailed – until July this year to be exact - but Nigel stuck to his guns and finally the mining right was awarded. Apprently a 14 month waiting period is considered the norm by the South African authorities which says something about the state of the country. In the meantime a 51 per cent stake had been purchased in Ilitha Mining (Pty) Limited, which owns the 271 hectare Stellite project and agreement was subsequently reached to buy the balance so Chromex now owns 100 per cent of the project.
It is a 15 million tonne chrome project on the western limb of the Bushveld Complex and its mining rights were in place when the transaction took place. By this time Nigel Wyatt had made way for Russell Lamming as chief executive and he threw every last ounce of energy into getting Stellite into production as soon as possible.
The Stellite project is located on the western limb of the Bushveld Complex and its acquisition means that Chromex now has 24 million tonnes of resources under its control. Stellite is an open cast mine and mining, using contract miners, actually started towards the end of July. Initially the plan was to sell run-of mine ore but a mobile crushing and screening has now been installed on site and the cash flow from the part-beneficiated ore will be used to build a processing plant at a price of around £5.5 million at current currency rates according to Russell Lamming.
Fortunately Chromex raised £4.5 million back in May and still has some cash in the kitty so should be able to stick by its forecast that this new plant will be operating by the end of the year.
Last month the company concluded its first sale of 8,500 tonnes of chrome lump, chip and reported an operating profit on its first month of production. The fact that it stockpiled ore until the plant was in place meant that it sold no run-of-mine ore and this is expected to boost revenue by 75 per cent with only a marginal increase in operating costs.
Just as important it has now raised its target of run-of-mine output at full production by the end of February 2009 from 30,000 tonnnes to 70,000 tonnes. This increase in the planned production rate at Stellite will require a similar increase in the capacity of the processing plant but Russell Lamming still expects to have the bigger plant commissioned within four months.
With initial cash flow under his belt Russell can now shift focus to the Mecklenburg project on which a bankable feasibility study was completed in March 2007. The current plan is to mine the LG-6 and LG-6A chromite reefs which comprise approximately 9.6 million tonnes and 5.7 million tonnes of chromite resources and reserves respectively. Target production is 40,000 tonnes of beneficiated ore by the end of 2009 and the current mine life is estimated at 10 years using mechanised mining methods.
Now that the mining right has been signed the next stage is to sign contracts for water supplies and electricity so it is fortunate indeed that the location of the project will allow it to tap into the water, electricity and the tailings infrastructure at Anglo Platinum’s Twickenham mine. The plant is being re-costed but it appears that prices for chromite ore, which Russell claims are still robust will outweigh any increase in production costs to the benefit of profits.
There is no getting away from the fact that some funds will have to be raised, but he reckons that cash flow from Stellite should pay for around 80 per cent of the capex requirement leaving a modest balance which should not be difficult to raise. Chromex is a company that has transformed itself over the past year and its shares have just about doubled since February which is more than most of its peers can claim.
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