DER Li-Wert der Zukunft ... Einstieg dringend empfohlen !!! (Seite 50)

[derVorstand]

moinsen ihr beiden! hab heute auch aufgestockt.

die sommerralley ließ uns ja kalt.vieleicht kommt dann alles auf einen schlag. wie bei saft heute.

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.683.053 von mach_et_otze am 30.07.09 23:30:55

Nun, Otze, dann muß es ja nach oben gehen.

Aber vor Verkündung der Zahlen am 11.8. wird sich sicher nicht mehr
viel tun.

Und dann müssen wir sehen...


Hatte Dir direk unter W.O. vor 14 Tagen eine Mail gesandt, die Du
aber nicht beantwortet hast. Wahrscheinlich hast Du in Deinem Post-
fach gar nicht nachgesehen.


Karlll

[mach_et_otze]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.652.209 von Karlll am 27.07.09 14:21:30

moin Karlll, hab es Dir gleichgetan und meinen Depotbestand ebenfalls erhöht, aber wir zwei alleine treiben den Kurs noch nicht nach oben...schönen Abend noch
Otze

[Karlll]

Moin, SQM läuft jetzt bereits seit 2 Monaten seitwärts.

Habe mir Ende letzter Woche noch ein paar Stück ins Depot getan. Und
nun kann es weiter aufwärts gehen.


Karlll

[MaloneBS]

Interressanter Artikel zu Potash Preisentwicklung. Bin gespannt was mit den Böden passiert, die ein Jahr ohne Düngung die gewohnten Ertröge abwerfen sollten. Den Dünger braucht es ja gerade weil er nicht vom Boden gebunden wird... ähnlich der politischen Stabilität wenn der kleine Hunger kommt

THE LOOMING POTASH PRICE WAR
So far, as the recession has taken its toll, suppliers have managed to keep prices up. Now, that fragile balance is showing strain
The slumping fertilizer industry is on the verge of a price war.

In the months since the recession took hold, the world's largest potash producers have coped by drastically slashing production, rather than lowering prices. But now cracks are starting to appear among the disciplined producers that had so far managed to keep prices near historic highs, despite weak demand.

Russian supplier Silvinit undercut its competitors by 26 per cent Friday to score a contract with India, leaving analysts to wonder whether the price break signals a widening split among companies desperate to start moving their inventories, or if it was a one-off motivated by Silvinit's shaky finances.

"It's fine to keep the prices up, but eventually these companies need to ask how many tonnes they are actually moving and whether that model is sustainable," said Erin FitzPatrick, Rabobank International assistant vice-president and industry analyst.

The contract with India is key because of the way the potash industry works. Large potash contracts are usually negotiated between brokers and foreign governments anxious to secure a predictable supply of fertilizer for their farmers.

Prices set in China, India and Brazil tend to dictate how much companies charge on the spot market to other customers.

The Silvinet deal has India paying $460 (U.S.) a tonne for 850,000 tonnes of potash for March delivery. Its rivals - including broker Canpotex Ltd., which negotiates on behalf of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. , Agrium Inc. and Mosaic Co. - had set their prices near the $630 mark, which is close to the price India paid last year.

The Indian deal took many in the industry by surprise, especially considering that Canpotex signed a deal last Thursday with South Korea and Taiwan to secure shipments through the second half of the year for $700. It signed a similar deal with Japan last month.

"Potash pricing appears poised to rapidly crumble," Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Edward Yang said in a note to investors.

Prices for potash - which is used to prevent plant disease and make crops hardier - quadrupled in 2007 and 2008 to $1,000 as farmers around the world looked to meet the demand for food from emerging markets, as well as the demand for crops that could be used to produce biofuels.

The $1,000 price tag was treated not as a peak by industry watchers, however, but rather a base from which prices would inevitably climb. Prices are still at historically high levels, given that potash averaged $270 a tonne from 2003 to 2008.

The International Fertilizer Industry Association said farmers used 28.3 million tonnes of potash in 2007-08, but estimates they will only need 24.3 million tonnes for the 2009-10 planting season, as cash-strapped farmers gamble that they can go a season without adding nutrients to their soil and still achieve strong yields.

CIBC World Markets analyst Jacob Bout lowered his potash price target by 18 per cent yesterday to $490 from $600 a tonne to reflect the Indian deal, but cautioned that the settlement might have more to do with Silvinit's financial situation than global potash prices: The company took out a $3-billion loan last year and likely faces interest costs near $500-million this year.

"As a result, the lowering of our potash price assumption may be premature, and we will have to see where other producers settle," Mr. Bout said.

Signs of stress in the industry have been evident since last year, as producers held prices steady by slashing output. Potash Corp. alone has cut its production by 5.5 million tonnes since August. But in June, Europe's largest producer, K+S AG was the first major producer to openly lower its asking price, with a 20-per-cent drop, to $600 a tonne.

"Even if there are no sales, you need to pay the bills," Rabobank's Ms. FitzPatrick noted. "Eventually someone was going to step out and make a sale at a lower price."

The low price tied to the Indian deal makes it less likely that the companies such as Potash Corp., the world's largest producer, would be willing to sign on to longer-term contracts, instead turning to the spot market for flexibility.

"Silvinit's deal was disappointing and unnecessary, because it is quite likely India would have easily paid the higher price for potash," said Patricia Mohr, a commodities specialist at Scotia Capital. "Negotiations are under way with China, and I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a contract signed at all in 2009."

While using the spot market would make the companies more nimble, it also makes it difficult for analysts to set price targets for their shares.

Lower crop prices and "mixed messages from management on pricing strategies" have added to the difficulty, UBS analyst Joe Dewhurst said.

Potash Corp. has seen its shares fall 25 per cent since reporting that "fertilizer sales ground to a virtual halt" in its first quarter, cutting its profit by 45 per cent. The shares are 60 per cent lower than they were a year ago, when Potash Corp. was briefly the biggest component of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Second-quarter results are due next week.

"Everything is so speculative right now," Ms. FitzPatrick said. "Because prices have been so high in the last year, we're seeing some choppiness on the way down. I don't know if you can call it a bottom - we'll have to wait six months to find out."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-loomin…

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.589.392 von mach_et_otze am 16.07.09 22:39:47

Moin, mach_et_otze,

Mach Dir keine Gedanken, hat Kostolany auch gesagt. Schlafen legen,
wieder aufwachen, und aller Ungemach ist vorbei.

Gruß Karlll

[mach_et_otze]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.582.223 von Karlll am 16.07.09 06:04:51

Hi Karlll,
ist denn das KGV eigentlich ambitioniert ? Wenn ja, wie hoch ist es zurzeit ? Das sind doch eh nur relative (Analysten-) Schätzungen auf einen nicht klar definierten Zeitraum, oder ? Klar, die momentane Schwäche der Düngemittel- Werte K+S, Potash, Yara etc. zieht dann auch unser Baby mit runter. Ist eh' schon ziemlich interessant, wenn man mal die Charts dieser Werte in den letzten Jahren mit SQM vergleicht -fast deckungsgleich. Wenngleich ich das Gefühl habe, dass SQM insgesamt weniger volatil ausschlägt, also kaum Tagesausschläge über 2%, vielleicht liegt das ja am zusätzlichen "Nebengeschäft" mit Lithium, was dann irgendwie kompensieren kann. Also, meinetwegen kann es auch jeden Tag nur um 1% steigen...leg mich jetzt erst mal ruhig schlafen...

Viele Grüße

Otze

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.581.525 von mach_et_otze am 15.07.09 22:45:43

Nun, ich denke, daß SQM doch bereits recht ambitioniert bewertet ist
vom KGV.

Da kommt es dann schon mal vor, daß die Investoren in Situationen wie
jetzt, mit Aufwärtstrend an den Märkten, die bisher unterbewerteten,
zurückgebliebenen Werte kaufen.

Hinzu kommt, daß der Düngemittelbereich momentan allgemein schwächelt, siehe K+S, Potash, usw.. Schau Dir doch mal an, wie diese
Titel in den letzten Tagen korrigiert haben.

Aber keine Sorge. Es wird auch wieder Zeiten an den Börsen geben, wo
der Gesamtmarkt relativ stagniert und SQM marschiert.

Aus meiner Sicht.


Gruß Karlll

[mach_et_otze]

Hallo allerseits,
bin bei SQM seit einem halben Jahr investiert und lese erst heute im Aktionär einen Bericht über Lithium- Investments. SQM wird darin auch genannt. Was in dem Artikel fehlt, ist der Hinweis auf das Hauptgeschäft in Sachen Düngemittel. Diese "Zweigleisigkeit" ist im Übrigen auch der Grund dafür, das ich diesen Wert in meinem Depot zu einer verhältnismäßig hohen Position halte. Als spekulatives Invest halte ich von allen Li- Werten noch Orocobre. Warum ist heute nur SQM der einzige meiner Depot- Werte im roten Bereich ???

[MaloneBS]

UPDATE: Chile SQM Mulls More Metal Output After Gold Find-Report
(Updates with comments from company)
SANTIAGO -(Dow Jones)- Chilean fertilizer and specialty chemical producer Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) is considering expanding its production to metals, after discovering gold deposits in its mining concessions, local newspaper El Mercurio reported Friday.
The company, whose mineral production has focused on non-metallic minerals such as iodine and lithium, began a $10 million exploration project a year ago for possible copper and gold deposits. After discovering gold in the northern region of Atacama, the company is now debating whether to diversify its production, according to the newspaper.
SQM General Manager Patricio Contesse declined to comment on the discovery, but told the newspaper, "Given the amount of mining reserves that the company has, we are naturally going to continue to find metal deposits."
In a statement issued in response to the El Mercurio article, the company stressed that, "The information we have is incipient in nature," adding, "It is not reasonable to create expectations in connection with our exploration efforts."
SQM has more than 1 million hectares in mining concessions under exploration for both metallic and non-metallic minerals.
It hopes to increase production of its non-metallic mining, with a plan to invest $350 million annually from 2009-11.
Within its growth plan, SQM's most significant increase is in production of potassium nitrate. In 2009, potassium-nitrate production will be 600,000 tons, with the goal of increasing production to 900,000 tons by 2011.
-By Risa Grais-Targow, Dow Jones Newswires; 56-2-820-4244; [e-mail]