Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 94)
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ISIN: CA00829Q1019 · WKN: A0MZJC · Symbol: AFZ
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Letzter Kurs 26.04.24 Tradegate
Werte aus der Branche Öl/Gas
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 1,4500 | +15,99 | |
| 9,0000 | +13,92 | |
| 1,2400 | +11,21 | |
| 13,810 | +10,39 | |
| 1,1500 | +9,52 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 6,7200 | -8,82 | |
| 325,00 | -9,97 | |
| 0,9400 | -10,48 | |
| 4,0400 | -18,55 | |
| 9,3500 | -28,02 |
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.799.960 von Sourcerocker am 17.09.14 09:10:08Hi Sourcerocker,
herzlichen Dank für Deine vorzügliche Zusammenfassung.
herzlichen Dank für Deine vorzügliche Zusammenfassung.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.799.960 von Sourcerocker am 17.09.14 09:10:08Vielen, vielen Dank für die Mühe und die Infos:-).
Liebe Grüße
Liebe Grüße
Hi All,
Stockhouse user StockBrain hat die gestrige Conf call verlässlich wie immer ins Netzt gestellt, sind ein paar interessante Fragen von den Analysten gewesen, von Citigroup, Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley usw, habe gar nicht gewusst, dass diese Häuser auch technische Leute haben.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvtZRjpXMUE&feature=youtu.be
Ich habe ein wenig Zeit und das mal kritisch angehört, vielleicht kann man die Gründe für die gestrige Abfuhr besser nachvollziehen, die allerdings nur sehr kurzfristig sein können. Erstens mal ist der Reserve Report sehr konservativ verfasst, Cut off date Ende July, die recovery factors mit 16% sind sehr konservativ angenommen, für Reservoirs mit 20-30 % Porosität und > 1 Darcy gibt es sicher 35% recovery rate, wenn nicht mehr, vergleichbare Beispiele gibt es im Sudan.
Die 616 M 2C Reserves sind natürlich zu den 600 am Jahresanfang von Tullow angegeben eher durchwachsen, das ist auf die mäßigen Ergebnisse an der Ostseite und auch Twiga zurückzuführen, die updip eigentlich weniger Reserves hat, als ursprünglich angenommen. Aber dafür ist der Südteil mit Ngamia, Amosing und Ekosowan umso größer, und das ist der Sweet Spot von Lokichar.
Leider hat KH (bewusst oder unbewusst) wieder eine Kapitalerhöhung im 1Q 2015 in Aussicht gestellt, nach einem Basin Opener und zu ähnlichen Konditionen wie die letzte, ca 7-8 $. Also das ist auch nicht unbedingt für den Aktienkurs förderlich, zumal ja im Block 9 mit Sala die Gasvermarktung ansteht und aus dem einiges an Cash generiert werden kann, aber das dauert noch. Fundamental ist alles ok, die Duster gehören dazu, das Upside Potential ist wahnsinnig gross, nur als Geologe ist er halt von den Daten ganz begeistert, wie auch ich, aber Analysten sehen das ein wenig anders. Dort zählen andere Fakten, Produktion und RRR, aber da sind wir nicht, das ist eine andere Liga, AOI ist ein reiner Exploration play. Lundin weiss, was er macht „No Guts, no Glory“.
Stockhouse user StockBrain hat die gestrige Conf call verlässlich wie immer ins Netzt gestellt, sind ein paar interessante Fragen von den Analysten gewesen, von Citigroup, Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley usw, habe gar nicht gewusst, dass diese Häuser auch technische Leute haben.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvtZRjpXMUE&feature=youtu.be
Ich habe ein wenig Zeit und das mal kritisch angehört, vielleicht kann man die Gründe für die gestrige Abfuhr besser nachvollziehen, die allerdings nur sehr kurzfristig sein können. Erstens mal ist der Reserve Report sehr konservativ verfasst, Cut off date Ende July, die recovery factors mit 16% sind sehr konservativ angenommen, für Reservoirs mit 20-30 % Porosität und > 1 Darcy gibt es sicher 35% recovery rate, wenn nicht mehr, vergleichbare Beispiele gibt es im Sudan.
Die 616 M 2C Reserves sind natürlich zu den 600 am Jahresanfang von Tullow angegeben eher durchwachsen, das ist auf die mäßigen Ergebnisse an der Ostseite und auch Twiga zurückzuführen, die updip eigentlich weniger Reserves hat, als ursprünglich angenommen. Aber dafür ist der Südteil mit Ngamia, Amosing und Ekosowan umso größer, und das ist der Sweet Spot von Lokichar.
Leider hat KH (bewusst oder unbewusst) wieder eine Kapitalerhöhung im 1Q 2015 in Aussicht gestellt, nach einem Basin Opener und zu ähnlichen Konditionen wie die letzte, ca 7-8 $. Also das ist auch nicht unbedingt für den Aktienkurs förderlich, zumal ja im Block 9 mit Sala die Gasvermarktung ansteht und aus dem einiges an Cash generiert werden kann, aber das dauert noch. Fundamental ist alles ok, die Duster gehören dazu, das Upside Potential ist wahnsinnig gross, nur als Geologe ist er halt von den Daten ganz begeistert, wie auch ich, aber Analysten sehen das ein wenig anders. Dort zählen andere Fakten, Produktion und RRR, aber da sind wir nicht, das ist eine andere Liga, AOI ist ein reiner Exploration play. Lundin weiss, was er macht „No Guts, no Glory“.
hier versuchen einfach wissende sich ein grossen anteil vom kuchen herauszuschneiden, da ist auch jedes mittel recht, als kleinanleger hat man da wenig chancen da hinterzublicken, einfach augen zu und durch! der kurs wird schon folgen!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.788.977 von vinumbonum am 16.09.14 07:40:35Tja, die Börse ist echt kein Ponyhof...ich versteh so überhaupt gar nicht,
warum der Kurs jetzt weiter in den Keller geht. Allgemeiner Trend, politische Unsicherheit,
irgendwas was wir wieder nicht wissen...was auch immer...und diese Unberechenbarkeit wird umso deutlicher,
durch die unbestreitbare Qualität der Poster hier... muß man hier ernsthaft wieder auf nen neuen Treffer
wie nen Basin Opener hoffen? Das ist wohl alles doch nur Lotterie...sorry, mein Beitrag ist qualitativ gleich null
wollt aber trotzdem mal... Gruss Remolus
warum der Kurs jetzt weiter in den Keller geht. Allgemeiner Trend, politische Unsicherheit,
irgendwas was wir wieder nicht wissen...was auch immer...und diese Unberechenbarkeit wird umso deutlicher,
durch die unbestreitbare Qualität der Poster hier... muß man hier ernsthaft wieder auf nen neuen Treffer
wie nen Basin Opener hoffen? Das ist wohl alles doch nur Lotterie...sorry, mein Beitrag ist qualitativ gleich null
wollt aber trotzdem mal... Gruss Remolus
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.765.508 von vinumbonum am 12.09.14 13:47:22Danke texas2 und gabbo62!
Die Nachricht von heute
!
Grüß´Euch
vinumbonum
Die Nachricht von heute
!Grüß´Euch
vinumbonum
NEWS
Auszug (vollständige NR mit Tabellen siehe Link:
September 16, 2014 00:00 ET
Africa Oil Announces Significant Increase in Resource Estimates of Kenya Oil Fields and Conference Call
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 16, 2014) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that an independent assessment of the Company's Contingent Resources in the South Lokichar Basin located in Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya has been completed by Gaffney, Cline & Associates ("Gaffney Cline" or "GCA").
Total 2C gross contingent resources increased 67% to 616 million barrels of oil and total 3C gross contingent resources increased 52% to 1.29 billion barrels of oil in the oil fields discovered to date in the South Lokichar basin. The Prospective Resource estimates outside of the field areas in the South Lokichar Basin have not been updated and it is planned to do a comprehensive update of all resources on all properties at year end.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/africa-oil-announce…
Auszug (vollständige NR mit Tabellen siehe Link:
September 16, 2014 00:00 ET
Africa Oil Announces Significant Increase in Resource Estimates of Kenya Oil Fields and Conference Call
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 16, 2014) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that an independent assessment of the Company's Contingent Resources in the South Lokichar Basin located in Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya has been completed by Gaffney, Cline & Associates ("Gaffney Cline" or "GCA").
Total 2C gross contingent resources increased 67% to 616 million barrels of oil and total 3C gross contingent resources increased 52% to 1.29 billion barrels of oil in the oil fields discovered to date in the South Lokichar basin. The Prospective Resource estimates outside of the field areas in the South Lokichar Basin have not been updated and it is planned to do a comprehensive update of all resources on all properties at year end.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/africa-oil-announce…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.765.508 von vinumbonum am 12.09.14 13:47:222 Kenyan Oil Explorers With Big Short-Term Potential
Sep. 15, 2014 2:03 PM ET | About: Africa Oil Corp. (AOIFF), Includes: TAIPF
Disclosure: The author is long AOIFF, TAIPF. (More...)
Summary
The Kenyan nation clarion call "Harambee" (let's work together) inspires two Canadian explorers in their search for black gold.
Africa Oil Corp. has made 8 oil discoveries to-date in Kenya’s Lokichar basin.
Africa Oil's share price is hovering at 18-month lows, despite adding 4 more discoveries in 2014.
Not only is the oil they have discovered not reflected in the share price, but they have 13 other basins to explore in the next 18 months.
Taipan Resources attempts to emulate Africa Oil Corp.'s success when it spuds its 3 well programme in December – both companies have short-term catalysts.
When the American industrialist Jean Paul Getty was asked how to succeed in business he replied,
This article was sent to 744 people who get email alerts on AOIFF.
Get email alerts on AOIFF »
"Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil"
Oil exploration in frontier regions such as Kenya is a risky business. The attraction of risk reward skew attracts speculative investors to the proposition. I will take a look at two Kenyan based explorers at different stages in the exploration-development cycle and their potential for 100% short-term upside in the coming three months.
Lundin family-backed Africa Oil Corp. (OTCPK:OTCPK:AOIFF, AOI.TO, share price $5.55) is a $1.7 billion market capped (OTCPK:MCAP) company with 8 discoveries in Kenya's Lokichar basin totalling an estimated net 231mmbbl (600mmbbl gross) 2C resources. The 'C' stands for contingent. The 231mmbbl estimate has been touted around for a year now, and 2014 has seen 4 additional discoveries. Indeed recent 'Amosing' and 'Ngamia' appraisal wells still have not found 'oil-water contact' (or the edge of the field). And what has happened the share price over the summer? It has fallen to 18-month lows to an unfathomable $5.55, CAD$6.14, as at close of business last Friday. It's as if the 2014 discoveries have never happened. Some say that the share price decline is due to the Eastern side of the Lokichar basin not having flow rates as good as forecast but the Ngamia-Amosing discoveries on the Western flank more than makes up for this.
So how can the AOIFF share price return increase in the next 3 months?
Catalysts:
AOIFF have 13 potentially similar basins to their oil bearing Lokichar basin in the region, two of which will be spudded in Q4 (Central and North Kerio). If any Lokichar-sized additional basin is 'opened up', then it's an automatic $7-$8 100% upside to the share price.
AOIFF have an independently audited resource report coming out in the coming weeks, which will take into account most of the new discoveries and appraisals, and the net to AOIFF reserve number is bound to put upward pressure on the current 231 mmbbl figure.
Kodos-1 wildcat will be a basin-opening attempt (spud September) on the Central Kerio basin.
Epir-1 wildcat will be a basin-opening attempt (spud December) on the North Kerio basin.
(click to enlarge)
So what's the fall-back plan if the Q4 basin-opening drills don't deliver?
AOIFF have no less than 11 other such basin opening opportunities in the next 18 months (see above). AOIFF plan to do an Industry deal towards end 2015. CEO Keith Hill regularly states at investor conferences that not a week goes by without phone calls from 'Big Oil' on how to get into Kenya. Upcoming changes in Capital Gains Tax legislation will provide the clarity 'Big Oil' needs to either buy AOIFF outright or 'farm-in' alongside AOIFF in exchange for a free ride on development costs. The Lundin family motto is "No Guts, No Glory". They have a nice habit of doing deals at the right time, evidenced by cashing out on Tanganyika Oil and Red Back Mining at the right time. Some commentators have looked to deals in the Sub-Saharan region for look-through valuations of the oil discovered by Africa Oil. In March 2014, Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) bought Caracal Energy (OTCPK:CCAXF) for $1.35 billion. Caracal had 1 and 2P reserves of 64mmbbl. The 'P' means proven. What turns AOIFF's 'C' into a 'P' is the project sanction expected around end 2015, but the volumes discovered by AOIFF (231mmbbl estimate and possibly more to be reported shortly) mean that this conversion seems inevitable. Below I have provided a valuation of the oil volumes already made, taking the Glencore-Caracal $14/ 2P Barrel metric and applying it to AOIFF. It shows how a fair price for the already discovered oil is $10.14 per AOIFF share alone, excluding the 13 other attempts to discover look-a-like basins in the next 18 months.
(click to enlarge)
Risks on AOIFF
Share dilution is a risk but an over-hyped one. At an investor conference in Sweden last Thursday, CEO Keith Hill stated AOIFF did not need cash until next June and that as a rule he doesn't like raising money below the last placing price ($7.55, CAD$8.25).
Geopolitical: Operations have moved along quite peacefully apart from one month last fall, when locals demanded more jobs, to which agreements were made between AOIFF and local representatives.
Taipan Resources Inc.
The second company is Taipan Resources Inc. (OTCQX:OTCQX:TAIPF, TPN.V, share price $0.36 ). To explain their current potential, wind the Africa Oil clock back to before their oil discovery in Kenya in March 2012. AOIFF's pre-drill MCAP was $200 million. TAIPF are slated to drill three times in the next 12 months, the first drill beginning in December this year. Their MCAP is $38 million and they do not need to raise money as they are fully funded for all three drills. Now is the time when institutions will place their bets, in the run up to Taipan's first drill event.
TAIPF target the Badada-1 (Block 2B) prospect in December, a gross target of 251mmbbl, TAIPF operating the drill and with 30% of the play. If that's a duster, then its chin up and move on to either the giant "El Wak" prospect (Afren estimates gross unrisked P10 target of 6 billion barrels but more seismic late this year to delineate) on Block 1 in 2015 where they own 20%.
Zacks last Friday put an 'outperform' rating on Taipan's stock (Zacks rating on Taipan) with a risked 6-month short-term target price of $0.79 (CAD$0.86). That's a 120% increase on the current price in itself. 'Risked' means you take only the chance of success (20%-25%) into the value calculation. If they hit the black stuff like their Kenyan standard bearers AOIFF did, than anywhere from 5 to 10 times the current share price can be achieved. The reason the stock is way off its risked NPV currently is the lack of news over the summer period plus investors have stayed back until Taipan got within the 2/3-month window of drill date. That time is now, and like Zacks, I expect to see some short-term price appreciation on the following catalysts.
Catalysts
A rig contract is expected at any time now if they are to drill in December.
A Goldman Sachs E&P50 report in 2011 explained the phenomenon of pre-drill tick up in share price towards drilling date. We are now entering the relevant window where institutional shareholders will take speculative positions on TAIPF, comforted by the 2nd and 3rd drills, if the first one doesn't work.
Management begin promoting the company in North America starting today, for two weeks.
A look at the chart below shows the stock is primed for a potential breakout if any of the near-term catalysts occur.
Taipan chart (in CAD$) Sept., 8, 2014
(click to enlarge)
Narrowing channel and decreasing volume. Same pattern occurring Sept 8 /2014. TAIPF remain in an upward bias along a rising 200 DMA support line and at a higher support base at .385 (as compared to the former support base at .25). Areas of support and resistance are .385 and .42.A break above this would be very bullish as this would form a trading floor. The MACD indicator is very bullish in the short, medium and longer term, favouring the upward bias. Currently the share price is following the 40 MA on the weekly chart. This is the area where buying should occur. The direction of the break is yet to be determined, but the probable outcome pending good news would be up.
Risks
Source rock risk remains the number 1 risk in December's "Badada-1" drill.
Geopolitical risks are present although the Kenyan government supply military units on all oil drills.
Having a second (and third) drills on Block 1 in 2015 is the best way to mitigate drilling risk.
Dilution risk is not present here as taipan are fully funded for three drills.
Conclusion
The summer malaise in the resource markets has provided a huge opportunity in AOIFF where you can purchase into actual oil discoveries at a 50% discount to what they're worth, with a staggering 13 basin opener upside to follow, starting in September. Twenty seven analysts cover the stock with an average rating of $11.22 (CAD$12.24). And if it can happen to Africa Oil, it can happen to Taipan Resources, with 3 drills fully funded in the next 12 months.
Remember exploration is not for the faint hearted, step away if a 20% chance of success on each drill is not tickling your palate. The Kenyans have "Harambee" as the clarion call of the nation, meaning 'Let's work together'. The Energy Ministry is determined oil will get developed, it's just a matter of when and where, of who has the Guts, and who gets the Glory!
Editor's Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Additional disclosure: The opinions expressed here are solely my opinion and should not be construed in any way, shape, or form as a formal investment recommendation. Investors are reminded that before making any securities and/or derivatives transaction, you should perform your own due diligence. Investors should also consider consulting with their broker and/or a financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
This article was sent to 744 people who get email alerts on AOIFF.
Get email alerts on AOIFF »
Now that you’ve read this, are you Bullish or Bearish on AOIFF?
Sep. 15, 2014 2:03 PM ET | About: Africa Oil Corp. (AOIFF), Includes: TAIPF
Disclosure: The author is long AOIFF, TAIPF. (More...)
Summary
The Kenyan nation clarion call "Harambee" (let's work together) inspires two Canadian explorers in their search for black gold.
Africa Oil Corp. has made 8 oil discoveries to-date in Kenya’s Lokichar basin.
Africa Oil's share price is hovering at 18-month lows, despite adding 4 more discoveries in 2014.
Not only is the oil they have discovered not reflected in the share price, but they have 13 other basins to explore in the next 18 months.
Taipan Resources attempts to emulate Africa Oil Corp.'s success when it spuds its 3 well programme in December – both companies have short-term catalysts.
When the American industrialist Jean Paul Getty was asked how to succeed in business he replied,
This article was sent to 744 people who get email alerts on AOIFF.
Get email alerts on AOIFF »
"Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil"
Oil exploration in frontier regions such as Kenya is a risky business. The attraction of risk reward skew attracts speculative investors to the proposition. I will take a look at two Kenyan based explorers at different stages in the exploration-development cycle and their potential for 100% short-term upside in the coming three months.
Lundin family-backed Africa Oil Corp. (OTCPK:OTCPK:AOIFF, AOI.TO, share price $5.55) is a $1.7 billion market capped (OTCPK:MCAP) company with 8 discoveries in Kenya's Lokichar basin totalling an estimated net 231mmbbl (600mmbbl gross) 2C resources. The 'C' stands for contingent. The 231mmbbl estimate has been touted around for a year now, and 2014 has seen 4 additional discoveries. Indeed recent 'Amosing' and 'Ngamia' appraisal wells still have not found 'oil-water contact' (or the edge of the field). And what has happened the share price over the summer? It has fallen to 18-month lows to an unfathomable $5.55, CAD$6.14, as at close of business last Friday. It's as if the 2014 discoveries have never happened. Some say that the share price decline is due to the Eastern side of the Lokichar basin not having flow rates as good as forecast but the Ngamia-Amosing discoveries on the Western flank more than makes up for this.
So how can the AOIFF share price return increase in the next 3 months?
Catalysts:
AOIFF have 13 potentially similar basins to their oil bearing Lokichar basin in the region, two of which will be spudded in Q4 (Central and North Kerio). If any Lokichar-sized additional basin is 'opened up', then it's an automatic $7-$8 100% upside to the share price.
AOIFF have an independently audited resource report coming out in the coming weeks, which will take into account most of the new discoveries and appraisals, and the net to AOIFF reserve number is bound to put upward pressure on the current 231 mmbbl figure.
Kodos-1 wildcat will be a basin-opening attempt (spud September) on the Central Kerio basin.
Epir-1 wildcat will be a basin-opening attempt (spud December) on the North Kerio basin.
(click to enlarge)
So what's the fall-back plan if the Q4 basin-opening drills don't deliver?
AOIFF have no less than 11 other such basin opening opportunities in the next 18 months (see above). AOIFF plan to do an Industry deal towards end 2015. CEO Keith Hill regularly states at investor conferences that not a week goes by without phone calls from 'Big Oil' on how to get into Kenya. Upcoming changes in Capital Gains Tax legislation will provide the clarity 'Big Oil' needs to either buy AOIFF outright or 'farm-in' alongside AOIFF in exchange for a free ride on development costs. The Lundin family motto is "No Guts, No Glory". They have a nice habit of doing deals at the right time, evidenced by cashing out on Tanganyika Oil and Red Back Mining at the right time. Some commentators have looked to deals in the Sub-Saharan region for look-through valuations of the oil discovered by Africa Oil. In March 2014, Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) bought Caracal Energy (OTCPK:CCAXF) for $1.35 billion. Caracal had 1 and 2P reserves of 64mmbbl. The 'P' means proven. What turns AOIFF's 'C' into a 'P' is the project sanction expected around end 2015, but the volumes discovered by AOIFF (231mmbbl estimate and possibly more to be reported shortly) mean that this conversion seems inevitable. Below I have provided a valuation of the oil volumes already made, taking the Glencore-Caracal $14/ 2P Barrel metric and applying it to AOIFF. It shows how a fair price for the already discovered oil is $10.14 per AOIFF share alone, excluding the 13 other attempts to discover look-a-like basins in the next 18 months.
(click to enlarge)
Risks on AOIFF
Share dilution is a risk but an over-hyped one. At an investor conference in Sweden last Thursday, CEO Keith Hill stated AOIFF did not need cash until next June and that as a rule he doesn't like raising money below the last placing price ($7.55, CAD$8.25).
Geopolitical: Operations have moved along quite peacefully apart from one month last fall, when locals demanded more jobs, to which agreements were made between AOIFF and local representatives.
Taipan Resources Inc.
The second company is Taipan Resources Inc. (OTCQX:OTCQX:TAIPF, TPN.V, share price $0.36 ). To explain their current potential, wind the Africa Oil clock back to before their oil discovery in Kenya in March 2012. AOIFF's pre-drill MCAP was $200 million. TAIPF are slated to drill three times in the next 12 months, the first drill beginning in December this year. Their MCAP is $38 million and they do not need to raise money as they are fully funded for all three drills. Now is the time when institutions will place their bets, in the run up to Taipan's first drill event.
TAIPF target the Badada-1 (Block 2B) prospect in December, a gross target of 251mmbbl, TAIPF operating the drill and with 30% of the play. If that's a duster, then its chin up and move on to either the giant "El Wak" prospect (Afren estimates gross unrisked P10 target of 6 billion barrels but more seismic late this year to delineate) on Block 1 in 2015 where they own 20%.
Zacks last Friday put an 'outperform' rating on Taipan's stock (Zacks rating on Taipan) with a risked 6-month short-term target price of $0.79 (CAD$0.86). That's a 120% increase on the current price in itself. 'Risked' means you take only the chance of success (20%-25%) into the value calculation. If they hit the black stuff like their Kenyan standard bearers AOIFF did, than anywhere from 5 to 10 times the current share price can be achieved. The reason the stock is way off its risked NPV currently is the lack of news over the summer period plus investors have stayed back until Taipan got within the 2/3-month window of drill date. That time is now, and like Zacks, I expect to see some short-term price appreciation on the following catalysts.
Catalysts
A rig contract is expected at any time now if they are to drill in December.
A Goldman Sachs E&P50 report in 2011 explained the phenomenon of pre-drill tick up in share price towards drilling date. We are now entering the relevant window where institutional shareholders will take speculative positions on TAIPF, comforted by the 2nd and 3rd drills, if the first one doesn't work.
Management begin promoting the company in North America starting today, for two weeks.
A look at the chart below shows the stock is primed for a potential breakout if any of the near-term catalysts occur.
Taipan chart (in CAD$) Sept., 8, 2014
(click to enlarge)
Narrowing channel and decreasing volume. Same pattern occurring Sept 8 /2014. TAIPF remain in an upward bias along a rising 200 DMA support line and at a higher support base at .385 (as compared to the former support base at .25). Areas of support and resistance are .385 and .42.A break above this would be very bullish as this would form a trading floor. The MACD indicator is very bullish in the short, medium and longer term, favouring the upward bias. Currently the share price is following the 40 MA on the weekly chart. This is the area where buying should occur. The direction of the break is yet to be determined, but the probable outcome pending good news would be up.
Risks
Source rock risk remains the number 1 risk in December's "Badada-1" drill.
Geopolitical risks are present although the Kenyan government supply military units on all oil drills.
Having a second (and third) drills on Block 1 in 2015 is the best way to mitigate drilling risk.
Dilution risk is not present here as taipan are fully funded for three drills.
Conclusion
The summer malaise in the resource markets has provided a huge opportunity in AOIFF where you can purchase into actual oil discoveries at a 50% discount to what they're worth, with a staggering 13 basin opener upside to follow, starting in September. Twenty seven analysts cover the stock with an average rating of $11.22 (CAD$12.24). And if it can happen to Africa Oil, it can happen to Taipan Resources, with 3 drills fully funded in the next 12 months.
Remember exploration is not for the faint hearted, step away if a 20% chance of success on each drill is not tickling your palate. The Kenyans have "Harambee" as the clarion call of the nation, meaning 'Let's work together'. The Energy Ministry is determined oil will get developed, it's just a matter of when and where, of who has the Guts, and who gets the Glory!
Editor's Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Additional disclosure: The opinions expressed here are solely my opinion and should not be construed in any way, shape, or form as a formal investment recommendation. Investors are reminded that before making any securities and/or derivatives transaction, you should perform your own due diligence. Investors should also consider consulting with their broker and/or a financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
This article was sent to 744 people who get email alerts on AOIFF.
Get email alerts on AOIFF »
Now that you’ve read this, are you Bullish or Bearish on AOIFF?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 47.761.632 von Sourcerocker am 12.09.14 08:49:38Danke für Deine ruhige Sicherheit! Kerio - auch meine große Hoffnung....
Hallo AOI Fans,
hier ist die Präsi von gestern, thx to Stockbrain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEyTlbpz4nw&feature=youtu.be
Mit headphones ist der Sound ganz gut.
Die wichtigsten Take aways:
Reserves Update wird > 600 M boe sein, also mehr als Tullow in Kenya, weil Block 9 dazukommt.
Kommt in diesem Monat (Hat er auch im letzten Monat gesagt
)
Vorallem Kerio Basin ist jetzt mit Kodos dran, dass wird ein ganz heisse Nummer, denn das schaut ganz wie Lokichar aus.
Auch ein weiteres Drill out im Lokichar mit Ekosowan, welches vielleicht mit Ngamia/Amosing zusammenhängt, das wäre natürlich ein Riesenfeld.
Ich lese meistens die Infos auf Stockbrain bzw. im Avanza Forum, bin aber nach wie vor von diesem Unternehmen überzeugt. Leider nur fachlich, denn die Stimmungslage am Aktienmarkt für Oil & Gas stocks schaut anders aus, aber das kann sich bald ändern, wenn sich die Unconventional Story als weniger wirtschaftlich entpuppt und in Middle East (Kurdistan etc) weitere Ausfälle gibt. Dann kommt Ostafrika ins Spiel und das wird gerade mit riesigen Investitionen vorbereitet.
Wird Zeit die Lebensversicherung aufzulösen….
Gruss Source
hier ist die Präsi von gestern, thx to Stockbrain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEyTlbpz4nw&feature=youtu.be
Mit headphones ist der Sound ganz gut.
Die wichtigsten Take aways:
Reserves Update wird > 600 M boe sein, also mehr als Tullow in Kenya, weil Block 9 dazukommt.
Kommt in diesem Monat (Hat er auch im letzten Monat gesagt
)Vorallem Kerio Basin ist jetzt mit Kodos dran, dass wird ein ganz heisse Nummer, denn das schaut ganz wie Lokichar aus.
Auch ein weiteres Drill out im Lokichar mit Ekosowan, welches vielleicht mit Ngamia/Amosing zusammenhängt, das wäre natürlich ein Riesenfeld.
Ich lese meistens die Infos auf Stockbrain bzw. im Avanza Forum, bin aber nach wie vor von diesem Unternehmen überzeugt. Leider nur fachlich, denn die Stimmungslage am Aktienmarkt für Oil & Gas stocks schaut anders aus, aber das kann sich bald ändern, wenn sich die Unconventional Story als weniger wirtschaftlich entpuppt und in Middle East (Kurdistan etc) weitere Ausfälle gibt. Dann kommt Ostafrika ins Spiel und das wird gerade mit riesigen Investitionen vorbereitet.
Wird Zeit die Lebensversicherung aufzulösen….
Gruss Source
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