Sellas Life Sciences Group (ehemals Galena Biopharma) (Seite 165)
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ISIN: US81642T2096 · WKN: A2PU3T · Symbol: SLS
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.958.994 von Turnover15 am 11.06.15 19:31:13Letzte Woche 5 Tage up und diese Woche 5 Tage downloaden wenn morgen nicht noch eine Trendwende erfolgt. Klar wir sind noch über 2$ aber ich hätte mir noch etwas Phantasie gewünscht. Die Shorts haben wieder sie Oberhaus gewonnen und dampfen den Kurs ein
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Why Galena Biopharma Inc. Exploded Higher in May
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/06/04/why-galena-…
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/06/04/why-galena-…
What's Behind Galena's 58% Rise in 2 Weeks?
Galena, which focuses on developing cancer vaccines designed to enhance the ability of a patient's immune system to fight off the recurrence of cancer, has seen its share price move from $1.42 on May 26 to $2.24 as of the closing bell on Monday June 8. Overall, that works out to a 58% gain over just nine trading sessions, with shareholders experiencing just a single down day in that timespan.
So what's really behind Galena's explosion to the upside? While presentations at the American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO, certainly kept the ball rolling, it's my belief that commentary from research firm Maxim Group appears to have incited the bulk of the buying.
Wall Street and ASCO give Galena a big boost
With Galena valued at just $1.42 per share, Maxim Group released a very bullish report on Galena, claiming the stock was a "buy" and its 2023 price target, using a combination of free cash flow for the firm, discounted EPS, and a "sum-of-the-parts modeled with a 30% discount rate," came out to $7 per share. If Galena could actually hit Maxim's target, we would be talking about a nearly 400% climb in its share price.
Why is Maxim so excited about Galena? Primarily it has to do with the company's ability to garner partnerships for its cancer vaccine products. Maxim's note suggests cancer vaccines are catching up to CAR T-cell therapies and "fetching comparable partnership deals from big pharma." The implication here is that continued positive data from Galena in terms of its lead product, NeuVax, which is being tested in a late-stage trial known as PRESENT as an adjuvant therapy to prevent the recurrence of breast cancer in patients with low-to-moderate HER2-expression, or its burgeoning therapies such as GALE-301 for endometrial and ovarian cancer, could lend to licensing or collaboration deals that supply Galena with much-needed cash and development/sales guidance.
Specifically, Maxim Group cites the impending interim analysis data release from PRESENT in the fourth quarter of 2015 or first quarter of 2016, and the data release concerning GALE-301 at ASCO as its greatest growth drivers. Maxim notes as well that Galena will be presenting phase 2 data on GALE-401 for thrombocytopenia at the European Hematology Association's annual meeting between June 11 and June 14.
Should you trust in Maxim's commentary?
The question that investors have to be asking themselves here is whether or not Maxim's commentary and the two publications presented by Galena at ASCO are really worth almost $133 million in additional market value?
On one hand, the ASCO data release was impressive. Although the early stage GALE-301 study designed to prevent the recurrence of ovarian and endometrial cancer in an adjuvant setting was geared toward safety and dose-optimization (as phase 1/2a studies should be), it did reveal intriguing early efficacy.
In the high-dose (1,000 mg) intent-to-treat cohort of 15 patients, just one had a cancer recurrence (6.7%) in a 9.8-month median follow-up compared to 11 of the 22 people in the control vaccine group which had a recurrence (50%). This worked out to a two-year disease-free survival estimate of 85.7% in the 1,000 mg GALE-301 arm and just 19.2% for the control vaccine group, as well as a 78% reduction in relative risk of recurrence. It should be noted that the p-value, or estimate that chance played a role, was pretty high at 0.09 in the two-year disease-free estimate, but given that this is early-stage data not focused on efficacy, it can be overlooked without too much worry at this point.
NeuVax also holds plenty of potential. In a five-year midstage study NeuVax led to a 78% reduction in the risk of cancer recurrence for select breast cancer patients compared to the placebo. As you can imagine, a lot is riding on the interim analysis update in the next three to nine months.
With cancer immunotherapies garnering so much of Wall Street's attention, it's not out of the question to assume that Galena is on the radar of a few Big Pharma or larger biotech companies.
But keep this in mind
However, investors also need to understand that analyst commentary rarely has any long-term effect on the price of a stock. While Maxim's commentary may have pushed Galena's share price up considerably over the last two weeks, its commentary likely hasn't changed the investment thesis of many of Galena's investors.
There are other points of concern beyond just the idea that analyst commentary tends to have a short-term effect on stock prices.
Source; Galena Biopharma.
For example, Galena's acquired cancer products, Abstral for breakthrough cancer pain, and Zuplenz for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting, may not make much of a dent into Galena's losses or free cash outflow. Zuplenz is set to launch in the third quarter, and Galena is projecting $15 million to $18 million in combined revenue for both drugs in 2015. Yet, Galena expected $11 million to $15 million from Abstral in its first full year on pharmacy shelves and wound up netting just $9.3 million. These two revenue generators may not be everything Galena's management had hoped they would be.
Cash burn is another serious concern for Galena Biopharma. Although Galena ended Q1 with $52.9 million in cash, this was only because it pocketed almost $41 million in underwritten common stock offerings during the first quarter. Common stock offerings can dilute investors, and based on its remaining cash, it probably won't make it much past mid-2016 by my best guess without another round of financing.
Lastly, it has pipeline risk. Much of Galena's valuation is tied to the success or failure of NeuVax. This isn't to say a failure of NeuVax means Galena's stock price would head to zero or anything, but NeuVax represents a substantial portion of premium inherent in the company's $360 million-plus valuation.
What should you do?
I believe Maxim has a valid point that Big Pharma could be interested in licensing Galena's products, but I don't believe they'll jump on its GALE-301 or GALE-401 data alone. Any smart pharmaceutical or biotech player is going to wait for the NeuVax interim analysis release before entering into a collaborative partnership with Galena.
The way I view it, investors shouldn't be in a rush to buy into Galena because there will be ample opportunities long after the interim analysis data is released. If you're on the sidelines and the PRESENT data isn't up to snuff, you'll be thrilled you didn't buy in. Even if you are on the sidelines and Galena shoots higher on positive data you'll be able to buy in and benefit from potential partnerships, the development of GALE-301 or GALE-401, and the actual sales of NeuVax if it's approved. Missing one binary event doesn't mean you'll miss the boat on Galena, which makes hanging out on the sidelines a potentially smart idea.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/061015/whats-behi…
Follow us: @Investopedia on Twitter
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/061015/whats-behi…
Galena, which focuses on developing cancer vaccines designed to enhance the ability of a patient's immune system to fight off the recurrence of cancer, has seen its share price move from $1.42 on May 26 to $2.24 as of the closing bell on Monday June 8. Overall, that works out to a 58% gain over just nine trading sessions, with shareholders experiencing just a single down day in that timespan.
So what's really behind Galena's explosion to the upside? While presentations at the American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO, certainly kept the ball rolling, it's my belief that commentary from research firm Maxim Group appears to have incited the bulk of the buying.
Wall Street and ASCO give Galena a big boost
With Galena valued at just $1.42 per share, Maxim Group released a very bullish report on Galena, claiming the stock was a "buy" and its 2023 price target, using a combination of free cash flow for the firm, discounted EPS, and a "sum-of-the-parts modeled with a 30% discount rate," came out to $7 per share. If Galena could actually hit Maxim's target, we would be talking about a nearly 400% climb in its share price.
Why is Maxim so excited about Galena? Primarily it has to do with the company's ability to garner partnerships for its cancer vaccine products. Maxim's note suggests cancer vaccines are catching up to CAR T-cell therapies and "fetching comparable partnership deals from big pharma." The implication here is that continued positive data from Galena in terms of its lead product, NeuVax, which is being tested in a late-stage trial known as PRESENT as an adjuvant therapy to prevent the recurrence of breast cancer in patients with low-to-moderate HER2-expression, or its burgeoning therapies such as GALE-301 for endometrial and ovarian cancer, could lend to licensing or collaboration deals that supply Galena with much-needed cash and development/sales guidance.
Specifically, Maxim Group cites the impending interim analysis data release from PRESENT in the fourth quarter of 2015 or first quarter of 2016, and the data release concerning GALE-301 at ASCO as its greatest growth drivers. Maxim notes as well that Galena will be presenting phase 2 data on GALE-401 for thrombocytopenia at the European Hematology Association's annual meeting between June 11 and June 14.
Should you trust in Maxim's commentary?
The question that investors have to be asking themselves here is whether or not Maxim's commentary and the two publications presented by Galena at ASCO are really worth almost $133 million in additional market value?
On one hand, the ASCO data release was impressive. Although the early stage GALE-301 study designed to prevent the recurrence of ovarian and endometrial cancer in an adjuvant setting was geared toward safety and dose-optimization (as phase 1/2a studies should be), it did reveal intriguing early efficacy.
In the high-dose (1,000 mg) intent-to-treat cohort of 15 patients, just one had a cancer recurrence (6.7%) in a 9.8-month median follow-up compared to 11 of the 22 people in the control vaccine group which had a recurrence (50%). This worked out to a two-year disease-free survival estimate of 85.7% in the 1,000 mg GALE-301 arm and just 19.2% for the control vaccine group, as well as a 78% reduction in relative risk of recurrence. It should be noted that the p-value, or estimate that chance played a role, was pretty high at 0.09 in the two-year disease-free estimate, but given that this is early-stage data not focused on efficacy, it can be overlooked without too much worry at this point.
NeuVax also holds plenty of potential. In a five-year midstage study NeuVax led to a 78% reduction in the risk of cancer recurrence for select breast cancer patients compared to the placebo. As you can imagine, a lot is riding on the interim analysis update in the next three to nine months.
With cancer immunotherapies garnering so much of Wall Street's attention, it's not out of the question to assume that Galena is on the radar of a few Big Pharma or larger biotech companies.
But keep this in mind
However, investors also need to understand that analyst commentary rarely has any long-term effect on the price of a stock. While Maxim's commentary may have pushed Galena's share price up considerably over the last two weeks, its commentary likely hasn't changed the investment thesis of many of Galena's investors.
There are other points of concern beyond just the idea that analyst commentary tends to have a short-term effect on stock prices.
Source; Galena Biopharma.
For example, Galena's acquired cancer products, Abstral for breakthrough cancer pain, and Zuplenz for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting, may not make much of a dent into Galena's losses or free cash outflow. Zuplenz is set to launch in the third quarter, and Galena is projecting $15 million to $18 million in combined revenue for both drugs in 2015. Yet, Galena expected $11 million to $15 million from Abstral in its first full year on pharmacy shelves and wound up netting just $9.3 million. These two revenue generators may not be everything Galena's management had hoped they would be.
Cash burn is another serious concern for Galena Biopharma. Although Galena ended Q1 with $52.9 million in cash, this was only because it pocketed almost $41 million in underwritten common stock offerings during the first quarter. Common stock offerings can dilute investors, and based on its remaining cash, it probably won't make it much past mid-2016 by my best guess without another round of financing.
Lastly, it has pipeline risk. Much of Galena's valuation is tied to the success or failure of NeuVax. This isn't to say a failure of NeuVax means Galena's stock price would head to zero or anything, but NeuVax represents a substantial portion of premium inherent in the company's $360 million-plus valuation.
What should you do?
I believe Maxim has a valid point that Big Pharma could be interested in licensing Galena's products, but I don't believe they'll jump on its GALE-301 or GALE-401 data alone. Any smart pharmaceutical or biotech player is going to wait for the NeuVax interim analysis release before entering into a collaborative partnership with Galena.
The way I view it, investors shouldn't be in a rush to buy into Galena because there will be ample opportunities long after the interim analysis data is released. If you're on the sidelines and the PRESENT data isn't up to snuff, you'll be thrilled you didn't buy in. Even if you are on the sidelines and Galena shoots higher on positive data you'll be able to buy in and benefit from potential partnerships, the development of GALE-301 or GALE-401, and the actual sales of NeuVax if it's approved. Missing one binary event doesn't mean you'll miss the boat on Galena, which makes hanging out on the sidelines a potentially smart idea.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/061015/whats-behi…
Follow us: @Investopedia on Twitter
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/061015/whats-behi…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.944.204 von DOOFbutHappy am 10.06.15 07:05:48Guten Morgen DOOFbutHappy,
Gerüchte und GALE- bei dieser Kombination muss man verdammt vorsichtig sein, das hat die Vergangenheit gezeigt!! Ich vertraue dem Management um Mr.Schwartz und nutze als Entscheidungsbasis primär die offiziellen Infos, die uns Anlegern zur Verfügung gestellt werden.
Gerüchte und GALE- bei dieser Kombination muss man verdammt vorsichtig sein, das hat die Vergangenheit gezeigt!! Ich vertraue dem Management um Mr.Schwartz und nutze als Entscheidungsbasis primär die offiziellen Infos, die uns Anlegern zur Verfügung gestellt werden.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.942.752 von lunatics am 09.06.15 20:37:56
Nächster Real-Termin ist somit der Hämatologie-Kongress in Wien am Wochenende, wo Gale-401 Ergebnisse präsentiert werden sollen, wobei 401 aber vernachlässigenswert ist und kaum zu grossen Sprüngen bei der Aktie führen wird.
Die Ergebnisse der viel viel wichtigeren 301 Studie sind aber auch imminent, und da wird es dann wirklich interessant. Spätestens Ende Juli sollten die auch bekannt sein.
Oregon Termin existiert nicht
Dieser angebliche Termin beim Oregon Court am heutigen Mittwoch existiert nicht, sondern ist offensichtlich mal wieder der Phantasie einiger Psychos im US-board entsprungen. Die Unterlagen liegen dem Oregon-Court wohl vor, aber es wurde noch kein "hearing" terminiert.Nächster Real-Termin ist somit der Hämatologie-Kongress in Wien am Wochenende, wo Gale-401 Ergebnisse präsentiert werden sollen, wobei 401 aber vernachlässigenswert ist und kaum zu grossen Sprüngen bei der Aktie führen wird.
Die Ergebnisse der viel viel wichtigeren 301 Studie sind aber auch imminent, und da wird es dann wirklich interessant. Spätestens Ende Juli sollten die auch bekannt sein.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.920.597 von zubi1955 am 05.06.15 17:57:53
Sali Zubi
Ich bin nicht mehr investiert. Ich werde aber beobachten. Mit einem EP von 1.45 würde ich halten. Wünsche viel Glück beim verdienen.
Zitat von zubi1955: lunatics wo steckst du?
Vermisse deine fundierten Beiträge!
Bist du noch investiert oder ausgestiegen? Da der Aktienkurs in den letzten Monaten kontinuierlich gefallen ist habe ich den Kurs nicht mehr täglich verfolgt. Aber heute wau......
Ueberlege mir, ob ich meine trading Position (EP us$ 1.45) verkaufen soll.
Was meinst Du?
Meine core Postition halte ich natürlich, da ich von GALE immer überzeugt war. Wir waren ja die ersten investiertenBis jetzt hat mir GALE immer Freude bereitet und ne Menge Kohle gebracht. Mein erster Eintrag ist vom 4.1.2013!!!!!
Grüsse aus der Schweiz
Zubi
Sali Zubi
Ich bin nicht mehr investiert. Ich werde aber beobachten. Mit einem EP von 1.45 würde ich halten. Wünsche viel Glück beim verdienen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.927.023 von Growth2012 am 07.06.15 14:55:57
hi Growth,
hatte kurzzeitig mal 1k versilbert gehabt aber heute schon wieder mehr davon zurückgekauft.
ich möchte einfach immer mehr Gales haben, statt zu verkaufen
weiss auch nicht, hab da so ein feeling
Könnte was großes werden.
Time will tell.
Gruss S.
Zitat von Growth2012: Hi Schaeffi, schön dich zu lesen....
Hast Du die mögliche -(sogar höchst wahrscheinlich)-"Oregon Trial dismissal" am kommenden Mittwoch in deiner Verkaufsüberlegungen mit einbezogen?
...dieses könnte ein weitere kräftige Impuls gen Norden verleihen, aber wie immer, erst dann wissen wir mehr
hi Growth,
hatte kurzzeitig mal 1k versilbert gehabt aber heute schon wieder mehr davon zurückgekauft.
ich möchte einfach immer mehr Gales haben, statt zu verkaufen
weiss auch nicht, hab da so ein feeling
Könnte was großes werden.
Time will tell.
Gruss S.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.941.966 von patg am 09.06.15 19:00:11
Nanana, immer vorsichtig mit der Wortwahl
Es ist immer noch ein riesen Unterschied zwischen Intraday-Unterstützungslinien und Unterstützungslinien, die etwas über den Trend aussagen.
Zitat von patg: Na du bist mir vielleicht ein Klugscheißer...genau meide Worte nur anders geschrieben..
Nanana, immer vorsichtig mit der Wortwahl
Es ist immer noch ein riesen Unterschied zwischen Intraday-Unterstützungslinien und Unterstützungslinien, die etwas über den Trend aussagen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.941.765 von hardliner1A am 09.06.15 18:35:36Na du bist mir vielleicht ein Klugscheißer...genau meide Worte nur anders geschrieben..
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