POET – die Halbleiter-Revolution (Seite 964)
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was als Off-Topic, aber auch hier erwähnenswert weil einfach nur toll: so ein tag, so wunderschön wie heute... http://www.zeit.de/w…
mal ein danke schön an die user die die infos hier reinstellen!
ok, hier noch mal der komplette Auszug, ist zu interessant um ihn untergehen zu lassen . . .
Original Pellegrino Valuation (Main Body)
Das Original wurde im April 2011 veröffentlicht, die Annahmen sind also nicht "up to date", insbesondere die zeitlichen Annahmen für die Markterschließung
Below you will find the main body of the original Pellegrino Valuation Report.
General Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that are common to all of our valuation models:
• It will take between 6 and 18 months for POET to pass through technical readiness level (“TRL”), making POET then desirable for licensing transactions.
• All revenue models rely on technology licensing fees; thus, there is no cost of goods sold
• ODIS will incur cumulative nominal monthly expenses that current grant revenues satisfy.
• The nominal discount rate for future cash flows is 32.04%
• The base target rate of return used for the discount rate determination is 23.98%.
• The success rate used for the discount rate determination is 25%.
• The holding period used for the discount rate determination would reflect an investment of 22 years (i.e., ODIS is a strategic acquisition, not a financial acquisition).
• The nominal remaining economic life for the technology is 22 years.
• ODIS will incur a 40% nominal income tax rate.
• ODIS will incur a 5% royalty payment to UCONN for the technology licensing.
• ODIS will enjoy an average of 20 remaining years for statutory protection for POET patent portfolio.
• A per-unit royalty would constitute 8.17% of the total value basis for the product.
• Once deployed, it will take 48 months for penetration of the market to the nominal ending market share.
• Product adoption will occur along a Fisher-Pry market adoption curve with a market shape of 0.2000
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense market:
• ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by ODIS representatives
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors.
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e., they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors (i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
• A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense contractor considers executing a license.
• The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range between $20 million and $50 million
• Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to account for any product-specific royalties.
Commercial Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the commercial market:
• The first market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for server computers.
• The second market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for desktop computers.
• The third market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for laptop computers.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top general computer microprocessor manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• In each target market, POET platform would nominally allow a manufacturer to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• The server processor market would start at 6,939,877 annual units, growing at 0% per year.
• Server processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Server processors average $828.89 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each server would require two processors.
• The desktop processor market would start at 128,200,000 annual units, growing at 1.13% per year.
• Desktop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Desktop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each desktop would require one processor.
• The laptop processor market would start at 231,900,000 annual units, growing at 12.43% per year.
• Laptop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Laptop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each laptop would require one processor.
Smartphone Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the smartphone market:
• The POET platform would nominally allow a smartphone microprocessor manufacturer to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top smartphone microprocessor manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• The desktop processor market would start at 188,100,000 annual units, growing at 10.00% in Year 1, 18.18% in Year 2, 15.38% in Year 3, 13.33% in Year 4, 11.28% in Year 5, 9.23% in Year 6, 7.18% in Year 7, 5.13% in Year 8, 3.08% in Year 9, and 1.03% in Year 10.
• Smartphone processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Smartphone value creation averages $78.96 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each smartphone would require one processor.
. . .
Original Pellegrino Valuation (Main Body)
Das Original wurde im April 2011 veröffentlicht, die Annahmen sind also nicht "up to date", insbesondere die zeitlichen Annahmen für die Markterschließung
Below you will find the main body of the original Pellegrino Valuation Report.
General Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that are common to all of our valuation models:
• It will take between 6 and 18 months for POET to pass through technical readiness level (“TRL”), making POET then desirable for licensing transactions.
• All revenue models rely on technology licensing fees; thus, there is no cost of goods sold
• ODIS will incur cumulative nominal monthly expenses that current grant revenues satisfy.
• The nominal discount rate for future cash flows is 32.04%
• The base target rate of return used for the discount rate determination is 23.98%.
• The success rate used for the discount rate determination is 25%.
• The holding period used for the discount rate determination would reflect an investment of 22 years (i.e., ODIS is a strategic acquisition, not a financial acquisition).
• The nominal remaining economic life for the technology is 22 years.
• ODIS will incur a 40% nominal income tax rate.
• ODIS will incur a 5% royalty payment to UCONN for the technology licensing.
• ODIS will enjoy an average of 20 remaining years for statutory protection for POET patent portfolio.
• A per-unit royalty would constitute 8.17% of the total value basis for the product.
• Once deployed, it will take 48 months for penetration of the market to the nominal ending market share.
• Product adoption will occur along a Fisher-Pry market adoption curve with a market shape of 0.2000
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense market:
• ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by ODIS representatives
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors.
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e., they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors (i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
• A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense contractor considers executing a license.
• The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range between $20 million and $50 million
• Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to account for any product-specific royalties.
Commercial Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the commercial market:
• The first market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for server computers.
• The second market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for desktop computers.
• The third market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose microprocessors for laptop computers.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top general computer microprocessor manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• In each target market, POET platform would nominally allow a manufacturer to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• The server processor market would start at 6,939,877 annual units, growing at 0% per year.
• Server processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Server processors average $828.89 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each server would require two processors.
• The desktop processor market would start at 128,200,000 annual units, growing at 1.13% per year.
• Desktop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Desktop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each desktop would require one processor.
• The laptop processor market would start at 231,900,000 annual units, growing at 12.43% per year.
• Laptop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Laptop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each laptop would require one processor.
Smartphone Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the smartphone market:
• The POET platform would nominally allow a smartphone microprocessor manufacturer to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top smartphone microprocessor manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• The desktop processor market would start at 188,100,000 annual units, growing at 10.00% in Year 1, 18.18% in Year 2, 15.38% in Year 3, 13.33% in Year 4, 11.28% in Year 5, 9.23% in Year 6, 7.18% in Year 7, 5.13% in Year 8, 3.08% in Year 9, and 1.03% in Year 10.
• Smartphone processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the valuation.
• Smartphone value creation averages $78.96 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment.
• Each smartphone would require one processor.
. . .
Die Tage 11 und 12 fehlen oben noch, aber es kamen weitere ca. 125.000 dazu
Hier noch die insiderbys:
Date Insider: Shares Transaction Value
03/10/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 7,400 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.29 - $1.29 per share. $9,546
03/10/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 7,400 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.29 - $1.29 per share. $9,546
02/28/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.0453 - $1.0453 per share. $78,398
02/28/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.0453 - $1.0453 per share. $78,398
02/27/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9367 - $0.9367 per share. $70,252
02/27/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9367 - $0.9367 per share. $70,252
02/26/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9433 - $0.9433 per share. $70,748
02/26/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9433 - $0.9433 per share. $70,748
02/24/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 50,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.08 - $1.08 per share. $54,000
02/24/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 50,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.08 - $1.08 per share. $54,000
02/18/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 200,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.00 - $1.00 per share. $200,000
02/18/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 200,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.00 - $1.00 per share. $200,000
02/12/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer N/A Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report N/A
02/12/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 2,775,385 Acquisition or disposition carried out privately at $0.65 - $0.65 per share. $1,804,000
02/12/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 1,500,000 Acquisition or disposition carried out privately at $0.65 - $0.65 per share. $975,000
http://www.investorpoint.com/stock/PTK%3ACA-POET+Technologie…
Date Insider: Shares Transaction Value
03/10/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 7,400 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.29 - $1.29 per share. $9,546
03/10/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 7,400 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.29 - $1.29 per share. $9,546
02/28/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.0453 - $1.0453 per share. $78,398
02/28/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.0453 - $1.0453 per share. $78,398
02/27/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9367 - $0.9367 per share. $70,252
02/27/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9367 - $0.9367 per share. $70,252
02/26/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9433 - $0.9433 per share. $70,748
02/26/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 75,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $0.9433 - $0.9433 per share. $70,748
02/24/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 50,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.08 - $1.08 per share. $54,000
02/24/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 50,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.08 - $1.08 per share. $54,000
02/18/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer 200,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.00 - $1.00 per share. $200,000
02/18/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 200,000 Acquisition or disposition in the public market at $1.00 - $1.00 per share. $200,000
02/12/14 Pinetree Capital Ltd.,
10% Security Holder of Issuer N/A Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report N/A
02/12/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 2,775,385 Acquisition or disposition carried out privately at $0.65 - $0.65 per share. $1,804,000
02/12/14 Inwentash, Sheldon,
Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder 1,500,000 Acquisition or disposition carried out privately at $0.65 - $0.65 per share. $975,000
http://www.investorpoint.com/stock/PTK%3ACA-POET+Technologie…
Trading Spotlight
ich habe gerad' noch nach dem original Pellegrino gesucht, hatte da noch was im Hinterkopf . . .
hier ein kleiner Auszug, wer sich mehr anschauen möchte, der link ist unten dran
AUSZUG AUS PELLEGRINO 1. Version, der komerzielle Teil ist etwas komplizierter, viel Spaß
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense
market:
•
ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by ODIS representatives
•
ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors. SCHEDULE “A” Page 2 of 3
•
Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e., they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
•
Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors (i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
•
A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense contractor considers executing a license.
•
The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range between $20 million and $50 million
•
Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to account for any product-specific royalties.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.ptk/opel-tec…
hier ein kleiner Auszug, wer sich mehr anschauen möchte, der link ist unten dran
AUSZUG AUS PELLEGRINO 1. Version, der komerzielle Teil ist etwas komplizierter, viel Spaß
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense
market:
•
ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by ODIS representatives
•
ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors. SCHEDULE “A” Page 2 of 3
•
Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e., they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
•
Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors (i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
•
A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense contractor considers executing a license.
•
The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range between $20 million and $50 million
•
Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to account for any product-specific royalties.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.ptk/opel-tec…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.619.283 von DaenischeSuedsee am 13.03.14 08:02:51ganz kurz noch . . . nach meiner Erfahrung richtet sich ein gängiges KGV häufig an der Wachstumsrate eines Unternehmens, also bei 35% igem Wachstum ist auch ein KGV von 35 durchaus statthaft
macht Euch einen schönen Tag
macht Euch einen schönen Tag
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.619.193 von DaenischeSuedsee am 13.03.14 07:47:24gerade noch mal ein paar Gedanken . . .
bei 100 Millionen Einnahmen
und 200 Millionen Aktien (voll verwässert)
Kosten und Steuern unberücksichtigt
entfallen 50 ct Gewinn pro Aktie
bei einem angenommenen KGV von 15
(0,5 $ x 15) wäre ein Kurs von $ 7,50 denkbar
natürlich stark vereinfacht, wie seht Ihr das ?
Kommt jemand zu anderen Ergebnissen oder hilfreichen Bewertungsmodellen ?
bei 100 Millionen Einnahmen
und 200 Millionen Aktien (voll verwässert)
Kosten und Steuern unberücksichtigt
entfallen 50 ct Gewinn pro Aktie
bei einem angenommenen KGV von 15
(0,5 $ x 15) wäre ein Kurs von $ 7,50 denkbar
natürlich stark vereinfacht, wie seht Ihr das ?
Kommt jemand zu anderen Ergebnissen oder hilfreichen Bewertungsmodellen ?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.619.193 von DaenischeSuedsee am 13.03.14 07:47:24Und man bedenke: Tag 2 des GSF läuft bereits. In Singapur ist es 7 h später als in D.
Nun... die Spannung steigt. Lesen wir heute News gegen 14 Uhr Deutscher Zeit?
Nun... die Spannung steigt. Lesen wir heute News gegen 14 Uhr Deutscher Zeit?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.619.119 von Laie3000 am 13.03.14 07:30:03Moin zusammen, die Spannung steigt, das sieht man auch im Kursverlauf. Unabhängig davon ob gerade jetzt, begleitend zum Global Semiconductor Forums, news herauskommen.
Zitat:" . . . the technical team sees no significant technical roadblocks ahead. POET anticipates completion of the 100-nm milestone by the end of April 2014."
aus:
POET Technologies Achieves New Milestone and Reports Significant Progress
March 4th, 2014
http://poet-technologies.com/poet-technologies-achieves-new-…
Zitat:" . . . the technical team sees no significant technical roadblocks ahead. POET anticipates completion of the 100-nm milestone by the end of April 2014."
aus:
POET Technologies Achieves New Milestone and Reports Significant Progress
March 4th, 2014
http://poet-technologies.com/poet-technologies-achieves-new-…
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POET – die Halbleiter-Revolution
