IntelliPharmaCeutics – IPCI - - Hot Stock - - 2015 – 2016 (Seite 240)

[ahasja]

Intellipharmaceutics Announces Second Quarter 2016 Results

http://www.intellipharmaceutics.com/releasedetail.cfm?Releas…

[_poseidon]

BIDS SHARES PRICE
0 3001.64
1 2001.62
2 3001.61
3 3001.6
4 3001.59

ASKS SHARES PRICE
0 4001.66
1 9001.67
2 9001.68
3 15001.69
4 3001.7

[_poseidon]

IPCI
Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes
$1.647
*
0.0371
+2.30%

... und ich hatte mir gestern noch welche gezogen für 1.57xx $

[ahasja]

Und noch ein sehr guter Beitrag:

"While you are using the broad market of $ 768M as a topline figure, please remember IPCI currently only has 2 strengths which represent 1/3 of that market, so when comparing (let's use round numbers) that brings the real market they are addressing to achieve current revenues down to $ 250M. Their market share of that new pie has stabilized around 33% according to their latest report, so again round that for simplicity to $ 80M in gross sales for Par. Since IPCI received just $ 3.5M, we can back into margin and by doing so we can see Focalin generates just over 4% margin, typical of low cost generics (and likely why it is taking a while to get someone to bite on Keppra, since it has such a small market in comparison to their other ANDA’s – a problem I don’t see them having with their other ANDA’s once approved). This also means that in your valuation you're not only using the full market of Focalin when they are truly in just 1/3 of it, but you are also extrapolating that low generic 4% margin for a potential best in class NDA... which after pointing this out I hope you will see this is simply not logical. If I absolutely had to speculate what IPCI’s post – split margin would be, I would say 15% of gross sales, but that is purely my opinion based on my research for the product at hand, everyone here can come up with their own number, I’m just advising caution about using Focalin’s 4% as a baseline if you wanted to be accurate.

The formula should be Market Size X Market Share X Post Split Margin + ANDA Revenues – Operating Expenses X Market Multiple / Shares Outstanding = Share Price. Plug in any variable you want, but just as an example for where I believe we sit this time next year with Rexista commercialized I’ll use $ 2.3B market, 20% market penetration, 15% post - split margin, $ 3.5M existing ANDA revenue (though I think we can all agree we better have more by this time!), $ 11M annual operating expense, 12X market multiple, 28M shares outstanding. (2.3B X 20% X 15% + 3.5M – 11M) X 12 / 28M = $ 26/share. Again, this is just an example of valuation based on how they currently are structured to receive revenues, feel free to use any variable assumptions you like (for example if you go with a 15% market share and 10% post split margin you get about $ 11.50/share, or if you go with 25% market share and 20% margin you get $ 46/share), some may be more conservative, and some more aggressive, but this is a pretty standard valuation given the information I am aware of (feel free to rip it apart if you disagree, I am all about a debate and am not conceded enough to believe I have the magic numbers). I figure any additional costs for further product development will likely be offset by development partnerships such as what they hinted towards with Regabatin, or should be offset by a higher earnings multiple to consider future growth. Happy debating! I apologize to those of you who hate math and this bores you! " http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…

[ahasja]

Lesenswertes aus dem englischsprachigen Forum zur Rexista bzw. Partnerschaft etc.:

I posted the following on June 10th and hold to these numbers.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…

I think what is far more important than the filing is the FDA acceptance of the NDA which is usually within 30 days after filing, and issuance at that time the PDUFA date... which should be for 6 months from date of filing since they are fast-tracked.

Acceptance of the NDA pretty much cements that they do NOT indeed need to do a phase 3 - which saves about 20 million $, and even more importantly around 2 years of time,

I think once that is known for sure... we'll see a partnership announced that takes all that into consideration.

I believe it will in fact be accepted and I am then expecting a $400 million total package -

$40 million up front + 20% royalty payments ON SALES OR REVENUE
$60 million on FDA approval
$100 million on $1 Billion aggregate sales milestone
$200 million on $3 billion aggregate sales milestone

or possibly 25% to 30% royalty payments on a $250 to $300 million total package. Also believe they will get a "rights of First Refusal" on Rexista w/ PODRAS

Royalty splits vary and depend mostly as to what stage of the approval process the drug is in - preclinical usually pays ~ 5% - if at successful phase 1, then usually ~ 10% - successful phase 2 can net you 12% to 15% - a successful phase 3 usually pays 20% - If FDA approved, easily 30% to 50% can be had - in Rexista's case if partnered before approval I would say 20% is conservative. Royalty payments are based on sales or revenues... not profits... so if IPCI negotiates 20% royalties it will be 20% of sales and the full payment is all profit to them... like the Focalin payments.

Rolling out a drug is very expensive and usually an agreed amount... say $30 million first year - 15 million 2nd year is set aside before royalties are paid... but long term profit margins on drugs - especially pills like Rexista are very high - my guess 65% to 80% profit margin - but, the royalty payments will be on sales or revenues, NOT profits.

Additionally... part of the approval process is that IPCI needs to have in place, proof that it can produce commercial quantities of Rexista utilizing current Good Manufacturing Process cGMP.

IPCI has always maintained that it intends to manufacture Rexista to assure trade secrets are not disclosed, so my guess is they will need around $20 million to set that up... I expect that will come from the partner as milestone payment once the deal is signed, I would also expect partner will want possibly 5 million shares at market cost... so any figures should reflect ~ 40 Million shares FULLY DILUTED.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…

[Radiesel2008]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.787.200 von _poseidon am 07.07.16 17:25:34

Ich hoffe, das ist nicht americanbulls(hit).com ....

Tendenz stimmt doch, wenn auch nicht so steil wie erhofft. Wehe, wenn sie losgelassen.....

[_poseidon]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.778.701 von Radiesel2008 am 06.07.16 17:25:53

Die bleibt bei 1.60 rum stehen... schade...
Dachte auch, dass es bald kracht. Auf americanbulls.com ist auch eine Kaufempfehlung... lange wird es nicht mehr dauern.

[Radiesel2008]

So, ich denke langsam zündet die Rakete...

[ahasja]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.767.844 von _poseidon am 05.07.16 16:16:13

Zitat von _poseidon: Scheint ja nicht der Brüller zu sein, die News von heute.
Kann mir mal bitte jmd. sagen, woran das liegt ?

Diese NEWS ist sehr gut. Ich vermute mal, dass Kurzzeitinvestoren einfach abspringen, da das Filling erst im August sein wird.

[_poseidon]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.766.731 von ahasja am 05.07.16 14:19:59

Scheint ja nicht der Brüller zu sein, die News von heute.
Kann mir mal bitte jmd. sagen, woran das liegt ?