schwächeres wachstum und höhere inflation: - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[nachtschatten]

der treibstoff für steigende kurse schönes wochenende !



ECONOMIC REPORT
GDP slows to 2.5% in second quarter
Core consumer inflation rises at fastest pace in more than a decade
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Jul 28, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, growing at a real 2.5% annual rate after a torrid 5.6% pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Consumer spending weakened in the April through June period, residential investment fell further and business investment eased to the slowest growth in more than two years. Investments in business equipment and software declined for the first time in three years. Inventory accumulation and trade added to gross domestic product in the quarter.
Real final sales increased 2.1% annualized, down from 5.6% in the first quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers increased 1.6%
Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 2.9% annualized, the fastest pace in 12 years, keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay on top of inflation. Core consumer prices have risen 2.3% in the past year, the fastest growth since 1995.
The GDP price index, which covers all prices in the economy, increased 3.3% for the third straight quarter. Consumer prices including food and energy increased at a 4.1% pace.
The 2.5% real growth was weaker than the 3.1% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The economy has grown 3.5% in the past four quarters.
In nominal terms, the economy grew 5.8% to an annual rate of $13.19 trillion.
Growth was also revised slightly lower in 2003, 2004 and 2005, as part of the government's annual benchmark revisions that incorporate better data that are available only with a lag.
Real GDP averaged 3.2% in the three years, down from 3.5% previously. In 2005, the economy grew 3.2%, rather than the 3.5% previously reported.
The Fed
The slowdown in GDP is welcome news at the Federal Reserve, which is trying to slow the economy to its long-term speed limit. Growth beyond the underlying productivity of the economy can fuel inflationary pressures, the Fed fears.
For the third quarter, economists are forecasting 3.1% growth, figuring that the slowdown in housing and high energy prices will continue to constrain consumer spending.
Over time, a slowdown in growth should bring inflation back down to acceptable levels. The Fed's recent forecast sees core inflation above the 2% comfort zone through 2007.
Financial markets expect the Fed to pause in August after 17 straight interest rate hikes. But economists are not so certain, with a slight majority expecting another quarter percentage point increase to 5.50%.
Real disposable incomes increased at a 1% annual rate. The personal savings rate fell to negative 1.5% from negative 1%. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of negative savings.
The details
Consumer spending increased 2.5% after 4.8% gain in the first quarter. Spending on durable goods fell 0.5%, spending on nondurable goods rose 1.7% and spending on services increased 3.5%, the biggest gain in two years. Consumer spending contributed 2.7 percentage points to growth
Residential investment fell 6.3%, after falling 0.3% in the first quarter. Residential investment subtracted 0.4 percentage points from growth.
Business investment increased 2.7%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2004, contributing 0.3 percentage points to growth. Investment in structures rose 12.7%, the most in three years.
Investments in equipment and software fell 1% after a 15.6% increase in the first quarter. It's the first decline in three years.
Changes in inventories added 0.4 percentage points to growth.
Exports increased 3.3%, while imports grew 0.2%. Net exports added 0.3 percentage points to growth.
Government spending increased 0.6%. Federal spending fell 3.4%, including a 1% drop in defense spending. State and local government spending rose 3%. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage point to growth.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

[volkmar30]

#1:

der treibstoff für steigende kurse




Entweder ist das ironisch gemeint oder die Bullen biegen sich ihre rosarote Welt jetzt schon um 180° zurecht...

[nachtschatten]

einfach eine coole interpretation, schwächeres wachstum=keine höheren zinsen, egal was die inflationsdaten aussagen. dito beim ölpreis, steigender ölpreis=steigende kurse, und nicht nur bei den ölwerten. diagnose: kompletter realitätsverlust


www.marketwatch.com:


MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks rise on hopes for end to rate hikes
U.S. economy grows 2.5% in second quarter versus 3.1% expected
By Leslie Wines & Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:23 AM ET Jul 28, 2006


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Friday on hopes the Federal Reserve may signal an end to its cycle of interest-rate hikes at its August meeting after a report showing the economy grew more slowly than expected in the second quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial was up 8 points at 1,271.
"The GDP number was softer than expected and it increases the chances that the Federal Reserve will pause in their long string of interest-rate increases when they meet next in August," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at Trusco Capital Management.

But Gayle said the market may begin to worry about "too rapid a deceleration" in economic growth. Gayle noted that the GDP report showed that business investment increased just 2.7% in the second quarter, the lowest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2004.

The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's interest-rate setting body, meets on August 8 to discuss monetary policy and interest rates. Its key fed-funds rate currently stands at 5.25%. On the fed-funds futures market, the odds rose that the central bank will keep its fed-funds rate unchanged following the GDP data.


The Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 2.5% pace in the second quarter, down sharply from 5.6% in the first quarter. See full story.
At the same time, core inflation rose 2.9% annualized the fastest pace in 12 years. That news, in theory, could keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep lifting rates.
The employment cost index rose 0.9% outstripping analysts' expectations.
It was the biggest gain in the employment cost index since the first quarter of 2005.

usw.

[volkmar30]

Das wird noch ganz böse enden mit dem Finanzmarkt.

[derbewunderer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 23.153.417 von volkmar30 am 28.07.06 17:19:11

Am Markt regiert der nur noch der Wahnsinn. Wir werden sehen wohin das führt

[nachtschatten]

hört sich doch gut an, oder?


CAPITOL REPORT
GDP report clarifies little
Fed still hoping for soft landing to avoid both inflation and recession
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:22 PM ET Jul 28, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The latest reports on the economy raise as many questions as they answer.
Which means the Federal Reserve must still play its hunches about the trade-offs between growth and inflation.
The GDP report released Friday showed a sharp drop in growth and a sharp rise in inflation in the second quarter. See full story.
That's pretty much what the Fed had predicted, but it still leaves open the questions that are haunting markets: Will the Fed raise rates again, or will the next move be to cut rates? Will inflation continue unabated? Will the economy spin into a recession?

The story about the coming slowdown is pretty familiar by now. "Home-grown demand is finally slowing under the weight of the Fed's tenacious tightening cycle and the turndown in the housing sector," in the words of David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch.
Add in the drag from higher energy prices, and you have a classic recipe for a slowdown.
And indeed, the GDP report showed that growth in consumer spending was cut in half in the second quarter, while investments in housing fell for a third straight quarter.
New source of weakness
But the GDP report added a new wrinkle to the familiar story: Capital spending collapsed. Investments in equipment and software fell 1%, the first decline in three years. The only thing that kept fixed investment positive was the 12.7% rise in spending on structures.
That was completely unexpected, judging from the reports on durable-goods shipments, industrial production and anecdotal accounts from businesses.
"The data challenge the notion that strength in business spending will offset any weakening of consumer spending," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond-market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. "The basis for a Fed rate hike is extremely weak."
Many economists insist that capital spending is much stronger than the GDP report says it is. The weakness will either be revised away, or it will be reversed in the third quarter, they say.
The strength of capital spending is the key to a soft or hard landing. Read more about capital spending.
"There is no denying that the economy faces severe headwinds in the year ahead -- the lagged impact of 425 basis points of Fed tightening, a near-doubling of oil prices in the past two years, and a crumbling housing market -- which certainly heighten the risks of something other than a perfectly smooth landing for the expansion," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns.
Other economists are more pessimistic about the outlook, largely because they believe the slowdown in housing will have a ripple effect through the economy, affecting consumer spending through the negative wealth effect and then business spending through the impact on consumers.
Rate cut coming?
Financial markets are clearly banking on a soft landing, with the Fed moving to the sidelines for the rest of the year. There are some signs in futures markets, especially in the forward-looking eurodollars markets, that investors expect the Fed to cut rates next year, Crescenzi said.
The yield curve continues to be severely inverted, with longer-term securities yielding less than short-term securities. Typically, that's a sign that markets are looking for a slowdown in the medium term that would compel the Fed to cut rates.
The yields on the 10-year note fell below 5% on Friday, a full quarter-point (25 basis points) below the federal funds rate of 5.25%. The inversion is halfway to the 50-basis-point spread that "only occurs when an interest-rate cut is imminent," Crescenzi said.

According to Fed research published last year, the relation of federal funds to the three-month bill and the 10-year note has been a very accurate predictor of recessions. On Friday, the model was predicting a 40% chance of a recession in the next four quarters. In the past, if the odds rose above 50%, a recession has always followed.
"While the yield curve is undoubtedly pointing to slower growth, we would caution about assigning pinpoint odds of a recession based solely on this one indicator," Porter said.
Porter, like many other economists, said the relation between the yield curve and GDP has loosened in recent years. Other factors -- say, Chinese-central-bank hoarding -- lie behind some of the inversion. See related story.
This time, it's different. But that's what they were saying in late 2000 when the curve inverted just before the economy fell into recession.
If the Fed only had to worry about growth, Ben Bernanke and his fellow bankers would probably have stopped tightening already. But fighting inflation remains at the heart of the Fed's mission.
The news on inflation on Friday remained troublesome, although the figures came in about as expected. The core consumer price index favored by the Fed rose at a 2.9% annual rate in the second quarter, and is now up 2.3% in the past year. That's above the 2% ceiling for the Fed's implicit comfort zone.
Inflation is a lagging indicator. In 2001 core inflation didn't peak until November, which was the last month of the recession. The Fed thinks it's already done a lot to fight inflation; it just takes time for rate hikes to have any impact on inflation.
The Fed is forecasting a slow and steady decline in inflation over the next 18 months.
Economists said the July jobs report, to be released Aug. 4, would play a crucial role in determining the Fed's move on Aug. 8. If hiring and wage growth come in on the soft side, as expected, the Fed will likely take a pause in August.
"We now assume that the Fed will be biased toward a pause at the Aug. 8 FOMC meeting barring any surprises from the employment report," said economists at Action Economics.
But others are sticking to their predictions that the Fed has more work to do, if not in August, then in September, or October, or later.
"We are keeping our call that the Fed will move rates to 5.75% and, at present, do not anticipate changing this call even if the timing shifts away from August," said Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

[ichhabdurst]

na und ?

wer sich richtig positioniert hat einfach mehr geld für die liebe !

[nachtschatten]

ich sehe eine EZB-zinserhöhung am donnerstag



DJ DATA SNAP: OECD Annual Inflation Rate Picked Up In June


Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Consumer price inflation rose across much of the developed world in June, with core inflation also on the increase, according to figures released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The Paris-based research organization said the annual inflation rate in its 30 members rose to 3.3% from 3.1% in May, its highest level since September 2005

Over the month consumer prices rose 0.2%, having increased 0.4% between April and May.

The pickup in the annual inflation rate occurred despite a slowdown in the rate of increase of energy prices, which rose 16.1% over the year to June, compared with 16.5% over the 12 months to May.

The pickup in inflation was instead driven by food prices, which rose 1.7% over the 12 months to June, up from 1.2% in the year to May.

There was also a pickup in the core inflation rate - which excludes energy and food prices - that will prompt fresh concerns among central banks about the knock-on or second-round effect of high energy costs on prices of other goods and services.

The rate of core inflation rose to 2.2% in June from 2.0% in May.

Central banks around the world remain fearful the long period of high energy prices will eventually lead to a pickup in wage inflation and prices of non-energy goods and services.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve has hiked rates 17 times since June 2004, the European Central Bank has hiked three times since December 2005. The ECB is expected to raise rates again Thursday. In July the Bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time in nearly six years.

Among the world's leading economies, the U.S. had the highest inflation rate in June at 4.3%, In the euro zone, the inflation rate stood at 2.5%, while in Japan it was 1.0%.

Among OECD members, Turkey had the highest inflation rate at 11.1%.

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Core inflation rising at 11-year high in June
Real consumer spending tepid for fourth straight month
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Aug 1, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. core consumer inflation matched an 11-year high in June, keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% for the third straight month in June, and has risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year gain since April 1995.
Consumer prices including food and energy also rose 0.2% in June, and are up 3.5% in the past year.
Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.6% in June, outpacing the 0.4% increase in consumer spending. The personal savings rate rose to negative 1.5% from negative 1.6%, the 15th consecutive month of negative savings. Consumers can have negative savings by spending previous savings, or by borrowing or selling assets to support their consumption.
The gains in monthly incomes, spending and inflation were exactly as expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending rose 0.2%, the fourth straight month of tepid spending. After inflation, real take-home pay rose 0.4%, the biggest increase in disposable income since December.
The June data on incomes, spending and inflation provided monthly detail to quarterly figures released last Friday in the report on gross domestic product.
Incomes got a boost from higher hourly wages. Compensation of employees increased 0.6% in June, with wages also up 0.6%.
Income from assets rose 1.5% in June, the third straight gain over 1%. Proprietors' income increased 0.1%.
Real spending on durable goods rose 0.5%, the first gain in three months. Real spending on nondurable goods increased 0.3% and real spending on services increased 0.1%, the weakest gain since January.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

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DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Producer Price Rise Slowed In June


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Prices of goods leaving the euro zone's factory gates rose at the slowest pace since the end of last year in June.

According to the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, producer prices in the 12 countries that share the euro rose 0.2% from May and were up 5.8% from June 2005.

The monthly increase was in line with the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week, while the annual increase was slightly above the 5.7% consensus forecast.

The monthly rate of increase was the lowest since December last year, and below the 0.3% rate of increase recorded in May.

However, the European Central Bank is unlikely to take much comfort from the slower rate of increase in factory-gate prices during May and June. That was mainly due to a drop in energy prices, which have since rebounded, while recent surveys suggest manufacturers feel they are in a stronger position to raise prices given the pickup in domestic and international demand.

Energy prices rose 0.2% on the month in June and were up 15.7% on the year, a marked slowdown from the 18.7% rise recorded in the 12 months to the end of May.

The ECB will likely be concerned by a pickup in the rate of producer prices excluding energy. They were up 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year, marking a significant increase in the rate of annual inflation from the 2.6% recorded in May.

The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time since December when its governing council meets Thursday, but there is less unanimity about how far and how fast the ECB will hike rates thereafter. Much will depend on whether there is evidence of mounting inflationary pressures.

For the second month in succession, prices of intermediate goods rose most quickly, up 0.3% from May, as did prices of non-durable consumer goods. Prices of consumer durables actually fell on the month, and were down 0.1% from May.

Producer prices in the 25 members of the E.U. were up 0.1% on the month and 6.4% on the year.