22.01.02: In Amerika droht die nächste Katastrophe! J.P. Morgan bald pleite? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 2)

[cloneaktie]

jetzt gehts ab - Charts in der Überschrift !!

[germanasti]

diablo:

Ich hoffe doch sehr das WO das mit den Grafiken schnell wieder unterbindet. Nimmt ja gleich Auswüchse an..tststzs...


Crash kommt, vll. vorher noch eine Rallye

[zombimarco]

[vorurteil]

#498
Die guten Zahlen bei SAP sind doch eingespeist!
Schau dir doch mal den Chart an!
Was noch passieren kann(darauf warten die Investierten gierig) "Sell on good news"
Beim Daxstand v. 4900P. wäre frühesten über einen Einstieg in
Daxwerte nachzudenken!

[Hop Sing]

Gute N8, germa

[germanasti]

Da macht man ein Spääschen zur allgemeinen Aufmunterung & es artet wieder mal völlig aus. Nur noch Kinder hier.



Kein nachbörslicher Crash.
morgen gehts weiter



Schlaft gut

[zombimarco]

auf 100 Points hin und her,kommts doch auch nicht mehr an,
hauptsache man ist dabei wenns noch mal hochgeht

sorry wg.Bild

[Kaily]

@ Germa

Wundern Dich die vielen Kinder ? Wer hat denn mit den Kindereien eben angefangen. Es ist ja ok wenn Du in Deinen Threads weiterhin Deinen Müll von Dir gibst. Aber dass jetzt alle Board-User Deinen Schwachsinn ertragen müssen ist einfach zu viel. Schon beim BO-Board hast Du das Niveau versaut.

Hoffe, WO reagiert endlich mal.

[Syracus]

Motorola Zahlen:

5:46pm 01/22/02 [MOT] MOTOROLA: LOSSES IN FIRST HALF OF `02, THEN PROFIT

5:45pm 01/22/02 [MOT] MOTOROLA Q4 AFTER-TAX CHARGE $1.1 BILLION

5:44pm 01/22/02 [MOT] MOTOROLA Q4 REVS $7.3 BLN VS. $10.1 BLN YR. AGO QTR

5:43pm 01/22/02 [MOT] MOTOROLA Q4 LOSS 4C VS. 16C YR. AGO QTR

5:43pm 01/22/02 [MOT] MOTOROLA Q4 FIRST CALL LOSS EST. 5C

PS: Novellus hat noch eine heftige Warnung nach den "guten" Zahlen nachgeschoben...

sYr

[fanthomas]

er lag 2001 fast parallel zu den red shoes prognosen, weicht aber seit mitte dezember davon deutlich ab und wurde weider bär.

wer behält nun recht - red shoes oder ken fisher ?

beide sind die treffsichersten analysten der letzten beiden jahre. ken fisher jedoch als fundi, trotzdem mit sehr guten werten. und das seit einigen jahren...


2002: Another down year
Kenneth L. Fisher, Forbes Global, 02.04.02, 12:00 AM ET


Expect the S&P 500 to lose another 5% this year. One more plunge is coming, followed by a last-half recovery not strong enough to erase the losses.
Okay, I changed my mind. In my last column (Jan. 7) I said that the market would be up in 2002. It won`t be. Get over it. Expect the S&P 500 to lose another 5% this year, plunging until spring followed by a strong rally in the year`s final seven months that won`t quite make up for the downdraft. The bottom might be around May 1, at about 900.

I use a forecasting methodology that I developed some time ago (see my column of Apr. 3, 2000) based on the predictions by market professionals for the coming year--and the fact that they`re always wrong, since their expectations are already priced into the market. I get my number by choosing among the holes between the clusters of their forecasts. This approach is both empirically and theoretically novel, and it`s nifty.

As often happens, I`m surprised by the result. The rally in the fourth quarter of 2001 made American forecasters too sanguine for 2002 to be a positive year. When a bear market really ends, the initial upturn is met with disbelief, not acceptance. That U.S. professionals are so optimistic after years of being wrong says that there is more bloodletting ahead. Much is weird this year.

As I`ve said recently, the U.S. market doesn`t like to drop three years in a row. Such a thing has occurred only twice since 1925 (in 1929-32 and 1939-41). But a spate of New Year`s stories makes me confident that everyone knows this, thus diminishing its validity. Nor has the market liked to fall both years of a presidential term`s first half, which my forecast envisions. The market did that only in 1929-30 and 1973-74. So I`m expecting the market to do rare things. I`m knowingly making a long bet. These last two years were the two worst back-to-back since 1973-74, and 2001 was the worst year since 1974.

Usually after such ugliness you should expect good times soon. The good news is that all during 2001`s downdraft I was on the right side of the market. I had the luck to have America`s best market forecast of any nationally published portfolio strategist in two of the last three years. For 1999 I called for a 20% increase; the S&P came in at 21%. For 2001 I expected a flat performance; the index fell 13% in stock price terms (12% with dividends included). I was closer than anyone else. Most predicted solidly positive returns.

The current euphoria of strategists isn`t warranted either. Having been too dour all through the 1990s, forecasters in 2000 tilted toward optimism. In 2001 they continued dour until the fourth quarter; then the upturn too easily intoxicated them. As 2001 ended the average forecaster, the guy smack in the middle of the bell curve of professional prognostications, foresaw a market rise of 17% in 2002. That is a nice notch above the market`s long-term average history; in the 30 years` worth of data that I`ve reviewed, it has never taken place.

In 2002 there are three holes in the professionals` array of calls, meaning that there are three likely outcomes for the S&P: to rise more than 40%; to fall by more than 20%; or to fall by from 2% to 10%. I`m betting on the latter. A market rise of more than 40% would be weird. That has happened just three times in the first half of a president`s term. If the market fell more than 20%, that would also be weird: Such a deterioration this late in the market cycle defies experience.

One caveat is that my methodology might be thwarted by the sky-high turnover of professional forecasters in 2001, which happened because so many of them had been so wrong for so long. Strategists who departed include Christine Callies at Merrill Lynch and Greg A. Smith at Prudential Securities. Still, regardless of who is making projections, I believe that pricing is always a function solely of supply and demand; and that supply is rather rigid in the short term and demand can be measured through sentiment.

My approach implies that Nasdaq will lose another 12% this year after bottoming in the spring at perhaps 1350, 33% below the present level. Small-cap value stocks should remain the best part of the market. Longtime readers know that I run this column by managing against the Morgan Stanley World Index, which should do worse than the U.S., losing about 9% for the year and falling perhaps 28%, to 725, in the spring. Stay maximally defensive.

That was my advice throughout 2001. At the outset, before the professionals` forecasts were in, I recommended three drug stocks: Schering, Akzo Nobel and Novo-Nordisk. Had you invested $10,000 in each of these, you would have lost 2.5% in 2001, factoring in a hypothetical 1% trading cost: $750 on your $30,000 investment. You would have soundly beaten the market: Putting the $30,000 into the S&P would have lost you $3,420. Once I did my own forecast, I advised staying out of equities, going for cash and bonds instead. This would have earned you around 4%. Not bad for a bad year.

Kenneth L. Fisher is a money manager based in Woodside, California. Find past columns at www.forbes.com/fisher.

[Syracus]

summary:

ISLAND REAL TIME AFTER HOURS ACTIVITY SUMMARY
click here for Island full-day activity summary


SHARES MATCHED ORDERS BOOKED SHARES BOOKED
4,055,275 125,543 156,804,259


# SYMBOL MKT SHARES
MATCHED
LAST
TRADE PRICE LAST
TRADE TIME OPEN
ORDERS
NET
CHANGE
PERCENT
CHANGE


1 MFNX NM 432,600 0.4400 17:53:32.44 540 -0.0200 -4.35%
2 EMLX NM 281,928 41.4000 17:56:58.56 160 +2.8000 +7.25%
3 QQQ AM 243,581 37.4220 17:56:17.75 78 +0.0220 +0.06%
4 AMCC NM 220,208 8.8100 17:56:58.41 319 -1.0000 -10.19%
5 MERQ NM 207,436 31.9500 17:57:02.04 29 +2.6600 +9.08%
6 DVIN NM 164,710 0.8000 17:51:17.92 56 -0.0200 -2.44%
7 IMCL NM 161,305 19.4500 17:53:32.01 77 +0.3000 +1.57%
8 CMRC NM 117,508 2.5900 17:55:06.05 148 -0.0100 -0.38%
9 OPWV NM 102,524 7.5100 17:45:26.52 140 -0.4000 -5.06%
10 BRCD NM 89,199 32.6200 17:55:33.89 203 +0.8600 +2.71%
11 CSCO NM 81,536 18.0800 17:52:36.42 962 +0.0200 +0.11%
12 SUNW NM 72,406 11.0200 17:56:53.64 920 +0.0600 +0.55%
13 ARBA NM 69,708 5.9000 17:56:39.08 274 -0.0300 -0.51%
14 JDSU NM 68,185 7.7700 17:55:54.68 760 +0.0600 +0.78%
15 MCLD NM 64,700 0.2100 17:20:23.47 197 +0.0200 +10.53%
16 KM NY 57,061 0.7400 17:42:46.61 39 +0.0500 +7.25%
17 PMCS NM 51,645 19.6100 17:56:34.01 152 -0.7600 -3.73%
18 INTC NM 50,900 31.6200 17:56:51.21 423 -0.0800 -0.25%
19 JNPR NM 48,551 16.2000 17:54:46.59 503 +0.1300 +0.81%
20 QLGC NM 47,503 49.4000 17:52:21.37 147 +1.2400 +2.57%

good n8

sYr

[paule2]

Die Russen kommen!