Die besten Silberminenaktien: - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Blecheuro]

Liebe Boardteilnehmer!

Wir sollten die Zeit nutzen, um uns mit den besten Silberminenwerten zu beschäftigen.

Mein Vorschlag: wir tragen sie hier zusammen und dsikutieren ein wenig darüber. Jeder sollte eine Aktie nennen und ggf. einen Kommentar dazugeben. Unter den besten Silberminenwerten wollen wir ausnahmsweise nicht verstehen, wer die größten Gewinne macht. Es gibt sicher auch nicht mehr viele Gesellschaften, die noch Gewinne produzieren. Aber bitte nur die reinen Silberminen. Keine Gemischtwarenminen.

Ich nenne zum Start den Wert Hecla Mining Tickersymbol HCL, WKN im deutsche Handel 854693.

Ich hoffe, daß wir in den nächsten Tagen alle interessanten Werte zusammengetragen haben.

Hoffebtlich machen viele mit.

[Blecheuro]

Das sprSilver Bells Will Jingle in
December 2002
December 2001 by Wally Bently

This essay focuses on two basic themes.

The primary theme and most important is to "Expect the Unexpected " in the silver market in 2002 extending into 2003.


The second theme is "causes and effects" for a silver price rise in 2002.
SUMMARY
In my opinion, silver prices will rise from $4.10/oz in December 2001 to more than $15/oz in December 2002 due to two reasons. The first reason is politics. The second reason is silver physical delivery problems will begin in 2002.

Douglas Casey has defined politics as about two activities. The first activity is the taking of wealth from those who have wealth and/or who produce wealth. This is followed by redistribution of that wealth for their agenda purposes. The second activity is the imposition on others as to how they will interact amongst themselves and those doing the imposing. Governments call the second activity `civil law.` In both activities governments use spin doctoring (propaganda), manipulation, intimidation, violence and even death to achieve their political agendas. Politics is a driving force in manipulating the silver market.

Silver is a small manipulated market. Many current silver market manipulators are now changing their agendas and/or tactics. Some current silver market manipulators may be leaving. New silver market manipulators are entering or will soon enter the silver market.

Physical delivery problems will arise primarily due to a vanishing silver supply and increasing demands related to growing diverse political agendas. Physical delivery problems created the silver bubble in 1980 and will be the primary cause for the silver price rises in 2002. The vanishing silver supply is simply based on the fundamentals of fabrication demand exceeding supply continuing to occur and the silver stockpiles will be near zero within three years. Silver investment demand could shrink silver stockpiles for fabrication usage to zero within days.

Why Silver Prices are headed up in 2002
Cause & Effect
1. Disappearing silver stockpiles and problems with physical delivery are the keys.

Simply put: The available silver stockpiles to meet silver fabrication demand will cease to exist within three years. This is based on the silver supply deficits of the past 10 years trend continuing for three more years. The current 2001 estimates of world silver stockpiles are put at 350 million ounces (CPM) to 500 million ounces (Goldfields Ltd of London) This was about the same figures they published in 1996. CPM and Goldfields Ltd of London have indicated about 100+ million oz. per year draw down of silver. (5 years = 500 million oz) since 1996. There is a bit of funny math in obtaining these numbers. Admittedly, silver stocks are closely guarded secrets in most financial centers. The U.S. Comex futures exchange is an exception. Comex Stocks are put at 102 million oz. in November 2001.

World silver stockpiles totaling 350 million ounces @ $4.10/oz has a value of = 1.43 billion dollars.

A big increase in investment demand for silver is likely to occur. A mere billion dollars for investment silver will cause the silver stockpile for fabrication usage to reach zero within a matter of days. This billion plus dollars will come from U.S. and foreign owners of U.S. dollars or other fiat currencies who are seeking capital preservation. These purchasers of investment silver will cause additional dollars from speculators to enter the silver market.

Silver supplies are likely to decline by as much as 100 million oz. in 2002. The Chinese govt. and U.S. govt. will not be selling silver. Decreasing mining of base metals will decrease mined silver by as much as 74 million oz in 2002.

Physical delivery problems will be the
primary driving force for silver price rises.
SUPPLY/DEMAND for 2001 (www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman20801.html)
492 million oz. Mining sources
221 million oz. Recycling of silver scrap (mostly photography)
-------------------- ------------------------------------
713 million oz. Total of Supplies to silver market

870 million oz. Fabrication Demand
-------------------- -------------------------------------
157 million oz. Deficit made up from silver stockpiles. (20 million oz. from govt. sales)

The last large silver stockpile of a central bank is held by China. China sold 1,900 tonnes (61 million oz) in 1999. China is projected to still have 1000 tonnes (32 million oz). Most of China`s silver annual production of 1,600 tonnes (51 million oz) is finding its way into possession of private Chinese investors.

2. Silver is a small market and has been manipulated over the past decade to keep silver prices low. Current manipulation of the silver market primarily by Western countries is to keep silver prices low through:

Ridicule of silver as an investment
Unlimited derivatives in silver options/futures contracts (naked derivatives)
Systematic promotion of unsuitable investments by
media
Financial Institutions/brokerage firms/financial planners
government(s)
Liquidation of physical silver holdings via government sales, bank sales & silver leasing.
Discouragement of using silver as an asset in banking reserves.
The following is one example of what might be in my opinion of a manipulation technique.

"One commonly used reference in every commodity trading firm is the CRB 2001 year book. This book is interesting on its silver statistics section. World supply is given in tonnes and World demand is given in ounces which makes demand/supply comparisons difficult due to conversions needed. The book omits recycled silver statistics, stockpile statistics other than for COMEX, silver leasing numbers, and any mention that the market might or is being manipulated. The text portion does state that it is perceived that silver supplies are adequate and consumption demand is sluggish. "

New players many of whom will be from foreign countries with big financial pockets will alter the silver market manipulations deliberately increasing the silver price.

The current silver market demand (mostly fabrication) with very little for investment purposes in 2001 is:

The silver market is small when compared to the gold market Gold mining produced about 2,400 tonnes of gold/year (66 million oz/year) in 2001. This represents:

(66 million oz)($270/oz) = 17.8 billion dollars

There are more than two billion ounces of of gold in central banks and private hands. This quantity represents:

(2 billion ounces)($270/ounce) = 540 billion dollars.

Compare this with 1.4 billion dollars for available silver stocks given above.

3. Chart of current negative real interest rates in U.S. appears to be a leading indicator by 1 to 4 months of future of silver and gold price rises. "The `real` real interest rate" by Steve Saville is a good source for more information.

The theory of `real negative interest rates` affecting the price of silver is based upon the idea or fact it is impossible to earn real returns on capital during periods of `negative real interest rates. So why lend capital out? Instead, preserve the capital through ownership of a physical commodity unlikely to decrease in value. The longer the period of real negative interest rates and the more negative real interest goes, there appears a correlation to the amount of silver price increases.

4. 5% Inflation in other countries and is likely in U.S. beginning December 2002. Dick Storken in his book "Strategic Investment Timing" suggests that gold and silver are a buy whenever inflation rates above 5% occur. Stocks may rise, but gold and silver will rise faster. The theory here is that capital in hard assets that are unlikely to decrease in purchasing power will fair better than a fiat currency known to be depreciating in purchasing power.

The growth rate in U.S. Money Supply [M3] has been faster than the inflation rates since 1995. M3 has grown from 4,500 billion in 1995 to more than 7,500 billion in November 2001. Money of Zero Maturity (MZM) has been phenomenal lately according to recent Gold-Eagle essays. This money growth translates into inflation within five years and at times a few months.

5. Coming foreign government decisions on 1,350 billion in U.S. dollar assets holdings can easily effect silver prices. Most of these foreign assets are in U.S. treasuries and are the result of accumulated U.S. trade deficits in favor of the foreigners. The trade deficit was recycled in the U.S. market by the purchasing of (fiat) U.S. treasury paper. The following three reasons are what might happen with selling of U.S. assets.

The selling of only a portion of these assets could quickly force U.S. dollar devaluation. A devaluated U.S. dollar will increase the price of silver and other items. One reason for selling U.S.dollar assets is for easier participation in different financial market such as the Euro market and/or an Islamic market.


Another possible decision would be the desire to turn some of these U.S. fiat paper dollars into hard assets which would probably include some silver. This would be to protect their capital value (purchasing power) due to "negative real interest rates", high inflation rates (greater than 10%), or other perceptions. Increased investment demand for a hard asset such as silver will drive the silver price up.


There are possibilities that a government or political action group may choose to corner the silver market for increasing their political power/clout or other agendas on the world scene.


The following are some published amounts of foreign owned U.S. assets. The text focuses on a perceived possible foreign economic concern and/or agenda.

$300 billion - Arab Oil Countries facing fears of U.S. government freezing of their accounts (as result of Sept. 11th) will be moving some of their 300+ Billion in U.S. assets into the Euro fiat currency where they do substantial business. Saudi Arabia is now in a recession.

$400 billion - Japan with a GDP of 2,900 billion dollars is in the third recession of the past 10 years. Bank of Japan (BOJ) has about 330 billion dollars in bad banking loans which it will have to write off. BOJ has another 700 billion dollars of gray loans. Japan which has a high savings rate may soon discover a good portion of their savings vanishing due to Yen devaluation. Those holding a hard asset (one type of a hard asset is silver) will be unaffected or profit. Japan may stave off a YEN devaluation by sale of U.S. assets to prop up BOJ.

$300 billion - China is facing internal inflation and economic problems. Chinese citizens historically have never trusted foreign fiat money and even its own fiat money. The China govt. could mount a corner on the silver market or other markets as part of a plan for restoring Taiwan to mainland government control.

$350 billion - Europe Germany and Italy are in recessions and have inflation rates above 5%. The number of European countries in recession appears to be increasing or likely to increase in 2002. The Euro currency countries have 8.4% unemployment (11.4 million people) Europe will be supporting their own financial institution which is a competing fiat currency.

Currency usage in Euro`s begins in January 2002. The 12 Euro currency countries are:

Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal, France, Ireland, Netherlands and Austria

Other (Africa, Eastern Europe, South East Asia, South America, Central America.
------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1.35 TRILLION TOTAL

6. Formation of a major Islam financial center is in the works which uses silver in the currency as well as gold. If this should happen, further pressure on the U.S. dollar will occur.

Silver could be used as a political weapon that could cause more damage to the U.S. economy than the 30+ billion dollars of Sept. 11th and shift financial/political power away from the U..S.

If the Islamic financial center was to put four Islamic Dirhan (3.0 grams of silver) coins or their equivalent with Islamic theology stamped on the coins into the hands of 200 million Moslems in the next two years, it would require

= ((3.0 grams of silver/coin)/(1000 grams/kilogram))(2.2 lbs/kgram)(12 troy oz/lb) = 0.0752 ounces/coin

= 0.0752 ounces/coin @$4.10/oz = 32.4 cents U.S. /coin
= (0.0752 ounces/coin)(200 million people)(4 coins/person)
= 60.6 million oz. (over half of the silver in the Comex vaults in December 2001)

Some of the coins will reach European, Asian, and North America shores. These coins will help to spread the Islamic messages in these areas more effectively and longer than most New York style advertisement campaigns. As silver prices rise, the Dirhan will be increasingly valuable and sought after.

7. Silver Leasing bubble is about to break. It appears very little silver is left to be leased out by banks. I have yet to see any published numbers as to how much silver has been leased out.

Bankers knowing that the silver cannot or is unlikely to be returned will focus on renewing the silver lease loans at ever increasing interest rates to increase bank profitability. Bankers will renew silver lease loans with additional conditions on the loans as leverage in extracting additional special favors/deals from the silver borrower. The silver borrower may have little option but to accede to the banker`s demands. A few borrowers will be able to return the silver or purchase silver for return (at much higher prices).

Bankers will be increasingly reluctant in leasing out again the small amount of returned silver in a rising silver market. Potential borrowers will be reluctant to take on silver lease derivative loans because of the higher risks in paying back the silver.

8. Current participation by very wealthy people (billionaires) includes George Soros, Rothschilds, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates.

While Bill Gates may not be a financial advisor, Bill Gates knows how to hire people who do know how to invest and make money. Bill Gates is reported to have a large holding in silver mining activities.

Warren Buffet known as a long term buy and hold strategist purchased 129 million oz of silver in 1997-1998. This drove the price of silver from $5 to near $7.50. Some writers suggest Buffet sold his silver. Other writers state that Buffet has moved the silver to Europe. Part of the price rise in 1998 is thought to be due to delivery problems.

Rothschilds & George Soros are legendary in participation (secret deals) at times in the precious metals markets. The precious metals markets include silver.

9. Scrap silver recovery is becoming more difficult from sources other than photography. There is no current mechanism in place for this to happen within the U.S. People are unlikely to sell jewelry/sterling silverware artifacts, collectable commemorative and so forth for which they have paid five or more times for silver within the item. Nearly all the silver used in electronics is never recovered and ends up in garbage dumps. Silver recovered by recycling silver primarily from photography 221 million oz in 2001. (Nov. 2001) reports private sector divestment of silver has dried up.

10. U.S. Government is no longer selling silver & will become a buyer of silver in March 2002 for the commemorative coin programs. It is not known how much silver is in the Strategic Military stockpile, but this is for war efforts and not available to the market. The U.S. treasury reports it had 496 tonnes (15.8 million oz on Sept. 30, 2000 The government sold 319 tonnes (10.2 million oz) ending Sept. 30, 2000.

11. World mine production of base metals copper, zinc, and nickel is declining. One writer suggests approximately 75% of the Silver Production comes from copper, zinc, and nickel mining. (75% of about 492 million oz/year mined = 369 million oz/year). Mining companies in these metals are said to have large inventories of the metals on hand. There is possibly enough metal to meet demand for 1 to 2 years. Prices have dropped on these metals making some mining operations non profitable. Copper prices have dropped from $1.10/lb range of two years back to $0.67 [Barrons Nov. 26,2001] Zinc has declined from 85 cents/lb in 1990 to current value of 50 cents/lb. Therefore, mined output of these metals is likely to decline by 20% in 2002. A corresponding drop of 20% in silver mined would imply a drop of (20% of 369 million oz/year) = 74 million oz/year that will not be available to the silver market in 2002 and/or 2003.

12. New uses for silver may increase silver demand. New uses might be technology improvements such as super conducting materials. I personally doubt these usages will increase silver demand by much more than 1% of the normal silver demand (1% of 870 million oz/year =) 8.7 million oz) in 2002.

13. Economic psychology changes from greed and euphoria reverting to fear in a spreading world wide recession will result in the exchange of fiat money into a hard asset which includes silver.

In eras where few promises are kept for long,
Silver like Gold has always been used as a medium of exchange

This fear could turn into a banking domino effect of one country`s banking system toppling the banking system in other countries. Argentina which is in the processing of defaulting on 131 billion U.S. dollars could lead to banking defaults in neighboring Brazil, Uruguay and/or Chile. Bank defaults in these countries could eventually have ripple effects other South American or Central America banks. This ripple effect could cause U.S. bank defaults. It was this domino effect fear that contributed to the U.S. bail out of the Mexican banking system to the tune of 10 billion U.S. dollars about 10 years ago. Domino effect fears will put pressure a U.S. dollar devaluation.

Increasing bad economic news from public media will cause loss of confidence in the stock and bond markets. Increasing numbers of investors with current greed will change to fear. This in turn can become a self fulfilling economic downturn and the facing of market place realities.

Subsequently, increasingly amounts of stocks and bonds will be sold. Preservation of capital, not capital increases will become the primary focus of increasing numbers of investors. Some of the capital preservation will be in the form of silver purchases which are unlikely to decrease in price.

If only 0.01% (1 ten thousandth) of U.S. Stock Market capitalization (ignoring bonds which have a capitalization 4 to 5 times more) went into silver purchases, it would represent (0.01%)(10,000 billion dollars) = 1 billion dollars. This will drive the silver market into near chaos by itself.

14. STOCK & BOND Market Psychology changes:

Values & Perceptions

The value of anything is based on perception and all too often illusions. Value includes factors such as risk, rewards, usefulness, recent experiences, credibility, and assumed relevancy. Unfortunately, humans are emotionally swayed by spin doctoring, passionate speeches, rhetoric and questionable logic. Thus humans frequently act or react irrationally. I believe a large portion of the world`s population exhibits irrational logic. This irrational logic is seldom considered or included in most theories. Hence, market place values can and sometimes do go to price extremes; sometimes zero; or on rare occasions even negative.

There are four certainties in our life journey. The first two certainties are `death` and `taxes.`

A third certainty is that reality at times enters swiftly into our lives like a thief in the night. This reality event has consequences which alter our perceptions over night. These perception changes affect our values of physical items and spiritual matters.

A fourth certainty is that `change` will take place. To adapt to change, each of us must consider the need to be `flexible`. In our adapting process, we must make choices. Today`s financial choices will significantly effect our lifestyle and options within two years.

One such change is a result of ENRON collapsing. A $90/share stock of a year ago that went to less than $1/share (Nov. 29th, 2001) has implied losses of $60 billion to $1,000 billion. Many retirements just vanished. The actual extent of those losses will not be known for years if ever. It is interesting to note that $60 billion is the U.S. government amount being proposing to boost the U.S. economy. The recent high tech - Internet stock market bubble collapse is another change. Other major collapses such as JPMorgan-Chase bank (from financial derivatives going bad) are probably in the works and being withheld from media attention. Could it be that U.S. cannot bail out all "too big to fail" institutions?

These phenomena to a lesser extent may be happening in Argentina which currently appears to be defaulting on 132 billion (in U.S. dollars) of debt. I can only wonder what role silver coins are playing in this apparent ongoing economic meltdown.

One writer suggests that precious metals including silver prices have not yet exploded due to:

Majority of population are economically and politically illiterate.
Majority of population are unwilling to take time to educate themselves.
Majority of population still trust their portfolios to the so-called experts. Over 90% of the experts have never experienced a downturn in the economy during their careers.
Majority of population continues to place their hope in government to solve existing and future problems. This includes their perceived belief the government will always financially bail them out or the companies they work for.
15. Other current U.S. Economic Bubbles could begin collapsing at any time. Just how much they might effect the price of silver can only be guessed at. My guess is that only a small portion will end up in investment silver. These bubbles and estimated sizes are:

U.S. Real Estate ($14 TRIILLION)
U.S. Personal Consumer Credit Debt ($2 TRILLION)
U.S. Stock Markets ($10 TRILLION)
U.S. Banking Derivatives ($42 TRILLION notational)
INDICATORS OF IMPENDING PRICE RISES

1. The DJIA to silver price ratio (9,900/4.1) = 2,414 is at extremes compared to ratios of the last 100 years. A ratio of 50:1 occurred during the silver bubble of 1980. The average ratio for the past 100 years is about 400. At the present December 2001 DJIA of 9,700, a return to the average ratio of 400 would suggest a silver price of (9700/400) = $24.25/oz. Spread trades (buy silver/sell a DJIA index) might be profitable. This ratio like the DJIA/Gold price ratio appears to be turning down. Both charts for the past 100 years are quite similar in shape.

2. Commitment of Traders trend line. The number of Short positions by large commercial hedgers is declining and as such an indicator. Large commercial hedgers tend to be insiders and are usually right most of the time. Large commercial traders know the silver price will soon be rising and they want to exit their positions to minimize losses.

3. The Options put/call ratio. This number in 1999 was about 40,000 calls to 20, 000 puts or a 2:1 ratio. In December 2001, the ratio is 5:1

4. A declining number of call options in a rising silver price market is also an indicator of options sellers covering their positions and expecting much higher silver prices than previous anticipated. This indicator is not currently present, but should be watched.

5. Any news media coverage which suggests that there are problems with physical silver delivery. Coin stores having unavailable 10 oz or 100 oz silver bars is another indicator. Presence of frequent media advertisements offering money for unwanted or unused sterling silver is another indicator.

6. A declining silver stockpile in the COMEX exchange from 102 million oz. and/or less than 70 million ounces is an indicator of potential physical delivery problems.

DISCLAIMERS :

This essay is provided for information purposes only. Nothing herein is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or financial instrument or anything else. Nothing herein is to be construed as a recommendation to engage in any particular investment strategy or trading strategy.

This essay is based on information that is generally available to the public. This is my summary of recent gold forum postings of www.gold-eagle.com, material from library sources, Internet sites and my own opinion.

I am not currently and never have been associated with any financial planning/investment/brokerage/ or banking institution/firm.

I appreciate all E-mails, questions, comments, and flames on this essay. My E-mail address is [e-mail]

December 12, 2001



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Also by "wallybently"

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icht für Silber:

[Saccard]

5% Inflation in Deutschland??

Gruß,
S.

[Dottore Lupo]

Die ganzen Argumente für einen Anstieg sind im Markt bekannt!!

Warum steigts trotzdem nicht???

Das ist der gordische Knoten den wir durchshlagen müssen!!!

Zum Glauben: ich gluabe das 2kg Huftscherzl mit Knochen nach 2 Stunden eine gute Suppe geben und die ist gut so!!

Einen guten Rutsch wünscht euch DL

[Basic]

Für mich gibt es einen neuen entscheidenden Aspekt, der Silberverbrauch für Fotos, nich der der Filme!
Also auf in die Stollen schürfen (lassen).
Basic

[Dottore Lupo]

@ Basic: der Zeiringer Stollen diente als Vorbild für die

Fabrik in der die ORKS aus den toten Elfen im Herrn der Ringe gemacht werden!

Ich glaube Andi,Tommi,Jurgli und Hääääns Rüüüüüüüdi spielen

Watten darin,das einzige Kartenspiel bei dem Beschiss erlaubt ist

cu DL

[Potosi]

@ Blecheuro

Guck mal in den Thread " An die Silberbullen " Beitrag 29
von Talvi. Nach den Charts listet er dort die Silberminen
auf.

Macmin greife ich mal raus.

Dazu wurde viel geschrieben im Thread " Macmin Ltd "

Firmeninfo unter : Macmin.com.au

Angeblich ist MMN endlich dabei, seine Finanzprobleme zu
lösen.

Sieht alles gut aus, aber trotzdem : Vorsicht !!!!!!!!!!!

WKN 897010 Berlin, jedoch praktisch kein Handel

Potosi

[Basic]

Hallo DL,
warum denkst du bei Stollen immer nur an das eine...

[gholzbauer]

Nehmt doch die hier:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sil+sil_t+paas+cde+exn.v+hl+ssm…
Qualität allerdings sehr unterschiedlich; die Besten meiner Meinung nach sind MMN.AX, SSRI, PAAS, FSR.TO; BAY.TO sind wohl kurzfristig etwas überkauft; SIL wäre aktuell noch zurückgeblieben, hier spielt allerdings der Zinkpreis eine große Rolle.

[gholzbauer]

Apropos Stollen ...
Das ist ein schöner Stollen, ohne widerlichen Puderzucker!