Gold- und Silberaktien (Technisch) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die Goldaktien setzten am Freitag den 6. aufeinanderfolgenden Tag ihren Abwärtstrend fort. USERX ist um 18 cents gefallen auf $5,28. Die Kurse sind nun unter das vorherige Tief von $5,43 gefallen, nach dem sie unter den 16-20 Index gefallen waren.
Der Fall am Freitag kam nicht überraschend, nachdem die Kurse sich einen Penny übder dem vorherigen Tief vom Donnerstag gehalten hatten. Die Konditionen für eine mittelfristige Korrektur sind nun eingetreten. Dieser Fall am Freitag hat nun getroffen/gebrochen den mittelfristigen 35-39 Index (a+3), der sich in der $5,16 - 5,43 am Montag befindet und ist gefallen 20% von dem $6,54 Hoch. Es wird nun einen Fall auf den Boden von seiner Trading Range oder tiefer geben, in Verbindung damit, das es am Dienstag unter dieser Range bleibt um das 35-39 index Signal zu generieren. Manche haben auf dieses Signal Monate lang gewartet, weil ein späteres Aufsteigen zurück über den 35-39 Index werden die Kurse auf eine neue mittelfristige Welle nach oben bringen.
Alternativ, ein Verfehlen zu kaufen ein zweites 35-39 buy Signal würde notwenigerweise bedeuten, das die Kurse evtl. auf ein tötliches 92-96 sell Signal fallen würden, klar damit anzeigend, das der bull market geendet hat.
Ein 92-96 sell Signal erscheint aber unmöglich, weil es einen massiven Fall unter USERX $3,80 innerhalb der nächsten 2 Monate bedeuten würde.
Es ist möglich das am Freitag das schon der Boden gewesen ist, aber evtl. wäre es besser, wenn es ein oder zwei mehr Abwärtstage geben würde. Solch eine Fortsetzung von dem Abfahtslauf unter die aktuellen 6 Tage wäre aber extraordinär
ungewöhnlich.
Am Montag sind es genau 222 Tradingtage von dem letzten exakten Boden am 05.08.01 (USERX $2,60), als der 218-222 Index ein buy Signal gab. Dieses 218-222 buy Signal war genau der Wechsel vom bear zum bull market.
Koservative Investoren, die auf Nummer Sicher gehen wollen, warten auf das nächste 35-39 Index buy Signal.
Falls wir am Montag fallen sollten, ein schnelles Ansteigen zum Ende der Woche hin, zurück über $5,43 würde generieren das neue 35-39 Index buy Signal. Dieses Signal würde extrem bullish sein, unglaublich bullish, wenn es auf den Index noch einmal aufsetzen würde und danach zur nächsten Himmelsrakete starten würde (ein perfektes Aufsetzen wäre schön!).
Normalerweise würde das nächste buy 35-39 buy Signal einen Monat später kommen, da es eine ausgedehnte Bodenformation erfordert. Die unsichere 1106 vom Index hat am Freitag ein Signal generiert, welches am Montag zum Schlußkurs oder am Dienstag zum Eröffnungskurs ausgeführt werden sollte. Dieses tut aber nicht agieren nur auf diesen nicht-effektiven Index gegründet, sondern das Signal ist konform mit einem Boden am Montag zum Schluß oder am Dienstag zur Eröffnung.
(Unternehmen, 16-20 Index, 35-39 Index, 92-96 Index) (Unternehmen auf EURO-Basis, Börse: Frankfurt oder Berlin)
Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Coeur Dalene Mines: sell, sell, buy, Aufwärtstrend
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: sell, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: a-4, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Meridian Gold: sell, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Pan American Silver: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung

peter.wedemeier1

[hakunamatata42]

?
Sell,sell,by
ist alles sehr interresant aber wenn möglich mal ins Kleinanlegerbörsendeutsch übersetzen am Beispiel von Coeur.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Coeur Dalene Mines:
16-20 Index: sell
35-39 Index: sell
92-96 Index: buy
Konservative Anleger warten auf ein buy signal bei dem mittelfristigen 35-39 Index um auf Nummer sicher zu gehen. Der langfristige 92-96 Index = buy. D. h. Coeur Dalene Mines befindet sich aktuell in einem bull Markt, da der Kurs sich über dem 92-96 Index befindet. Wenn der Kurs nun über den 35-39 Index steigt, wird ein Kaufsignal generiert.
Der Chart zeigt eindeutig einen Aufwärtstrend, da der 16-20 Index > 35-39 Index > 92-96 Index ist.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die Goldaktien sind gestern gefallen. USERX fiel um 37 cents auf $5,05. Am Montag waren die Aktien gestiegen um die 6 aufeinanderfolgenden Abwärtstage zu brechen. Trotz diesem Aufwärtstag am Montag, USERX war sehr enttäuschend, stieg nur um 14 cents auf $5,42. Diese schlechte Perfomance trotz der für Gold- und Silberaktien bullishen Umgebung (Dow Jones fast Crash, Nasdaq stark gefallen, Dollar schwach, etc.) könnte einem zu denken geben. Besonders seit gestern wo der Kurs vom USERX umkehrte einen Penny unter den break-down Punkt (dem letzten Tief) von $5,43. Solch ein armer Anstieg könnte einen Kurskollaps prophezeien. Der große Fall von gestern kam eng mit dem 1. Fibonacci Retracement Punkt bei $5,03 (38,2% von dem Anstieg von $2,61 auf $6,54) zusammen. Der wichtige 35-39 Index setzte gestern fort zu brechen, trotz des Anstiegs auf $5,42 (ein zweites +3).
Der Fall von gestern könnte zur Folge haben, das der 35-39 Index morgen sein "sell" Signal generieren wird für die Ausführung am Freitag (Donnerstag ist bekannterweise Feiertag). Nur ein 5% Anstieg morgen würde dieses Signal verhindern. In bull Märkten markiert dieses Signal den mittelfristigen Bodenbildungsprozeß. Konservative Investoren sollen auf ein nächstes 35-39 Index "buy" Signal warten.
Das ultra-bullishe Szenario vom Freitag kann noch passieren. Dafür müßten wir beim USERX in der nächsten Woche um über 30 cents ansteigen und oben bleiben. Das würde dann das extrem bullishe 35-39 "buy" Signal generieren. Andernfalls, wir werden möglicherweise 2 Monate warten (35-39 Tage) auf ein neues "buy" Signal. Wenn dieses ein bull Markt ist, dann sollten die Kurse niemals unter den 92-96 Index ($3,80) zurück fallen. Basierend auf den 35-39 Index und den 92-96 Indizes (die Hauptindizes) gehen wir nun in das langfristige "Machen" über oder in eine Pause. Ein 35-39 Index "buy" Signal würde einen monatelangen Anstieg zur Folge haben. Und bei diesem "buy" Signal werde ich alles nehmen, was ich kann und kaufen. Ein 92-96 Index "sell" Signal würde Aussprechen das Ende von diesem bull run. Die berühmten Precious Metal Mutual Funds Timer gaben gestern Ihr "sell" Signal heraus. Sie hatten zwei exzellente Trendfolger Käufe dieses Jahr, der letzte startete bei ungefähr $3,74. In früheren Jahren hatten Sie ungefähr 70 gerade auf Fehlsignalen basierende Verlusttrades. Sie werden deshalb für gewöhnlich als Kontraindikator angesehen, aber dann und wann gelingt es Ihnen auch, eine große Bewegung nach oben oder unten einzufangen. Wie irgendein Trendfolgesystem. Markieren Sie wieder einen Boden? Man kann es basierend auf den den 35-39 vielleicht innerhalb der nächsten Woche herausfinden. Man kann überrascht sein bei dem seit mehrere Monaten Warten auf das "sell" Signal bei dem 35-39 Index.

(Unternehmen, 16-20 Index, 35-39 Index, 92-96 Index) (Unternehmen auf EURO-Basis, Börse: Frankfurt oder Berlin)
Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: a-1, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: a-2, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold:
Meridian Gold:
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Pan American Silver: buy, buy, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung

[peter.wedemeier1]

Super-bull market.
The bull camp reasons include: (1) The system is on that 92-96 buy signal and the XXing-Out can be wrong (and has been before), whereas all great bulls have always been marked the 92-96 index buy signals on the path. Note how the two up thrusts since 2000 were preceded by the definitive 35-39 index buy signal on the path on 4/26/01 and the current 92-96 buy signal. Gold stocks spent almost all of the other months "playing around". (2) The 218-222 index (the really long-term bull market signal) was obtained, on the path and non-XXed Out, on 8/801 at 2.62. (3) This year`s rise from the 92-96 buy signal was the greatest percentage rise during a 6 month period ever recorded, and (4) USERX has risen above the prior multi-year highs of USERX 4.71. This has been the first time in 20 years that USERX has ever eclipsed a prior multi-year high. The latter two bullish reasons portend a long-term rise of historic proportions that takes years to top, a super-bull market.

Conclusion. If you are confident that the gold stocks are in a long-term bull, Friday marked the intermediate-term bottoming process. This bottoming process can only take up to 39-40 trading days from Friday. Since the bull case definitively requires a new 35-39 index buy signal within 40 days (note that "just happens" to fall on the day before the 3-day Labor Day weekend), the actual price bottom should occur between Friday and about 20 trading days from Friday. As I have continuously repeated, conservative traders/investors (and "chickens" like me) should clearly wait for the next 35-39 index buy signal that will definitively mark the start of the next multi-month surge higher, but will buy on the way up at a price equal to or higher than Friday`s closing price. If another 35-39 buy signal is not obtained within 40 trading days, a 92-96 index sell signal will occur. The 92-96 back prices are now at the 2/15/02 high of 3.95 and will rise to the 4.43-4.75 area in 40 trading days. I have waited for many months for the current 35-39 index signal because it sets up the indices for clear long-term and intermediate-term predictions.
Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Anglogold: sell, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, a-3, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: buy, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold:
Meridian Gold: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Pan American Silver: a-2, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Abwärtstrend
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung

Im bull market befinden sich: CDE, HL, KGC, MDG, PAAS und RGLD!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Hier könnt Ihr sehen wie euer Goldie geratet ist!
http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=gold.sec&level=2&ti…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Since the 35-39 index bottoming signal executed last Friday, the gold stocks have surged higher. USERX climbed 3% on Monday to 5.02 and then flew up 6% today to 5.35. Today`s rise was actually disappointing because I was hoping for an 8-10% increase that would have provided a better set-up for an explosive 35-39 buy signal described below.

As previously reported, the 35-39 "sell" signal executed last Friday could have marked the intermediate low to the day or it was the beginning of that bottoming process. A 35-39 index buy signal, whereby prices rise for several days over the back 35-39 day prices, would portend a dramatic second leg up. Today`s rise hit the 35-39 back prices that were 5.49, 5.23, 5.18, 5.24, and 5.48 (Note the symmetrical trough formation on the back prices, such that hitting them without jumping over them at that point is not particularly encouraging). Therefore, we got a +1 today on that index. A rise over 5.49 would have yielded a +5 and significantly increased the likelihood of generating a fast powerful buy signal, the kind that I talked about early last week. Hereafter, the back prices rise to 5.66, 5.91, 5.97 (remember me selling that day as I left for "the expensive vacation"?), and 6.42. PRICES NEED TO RISE TO OVER 5.66 IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO GENERATE A GREAT BUY SIGNAL EXECUTED ON FRIDAY and then prices would still need to skyrocket to new highs in a week to stay above the rising back prices. Such a signal and a rise would indeed be a rare event. It would therefore appear to be only a remote, hopeful possibility.

I hope that you are looking at the back prices and computing the index. I cannot spell out every little possibility here, but there are several others. A more realistic scenario would result in an avoidance of the 35-39 buy signal right now, but a continued rise to a Fibonnaci retracement of the recent down move from 6.54 to 4.86. The 61.8% retracement would yield a price rise to 5.90. Note how such a rise could occur and still not get over the 16-20 back prices that will rise up to 5.98 late next week.

So today was nice, but not definitive. Another 6% rise tomorrow will cause me to be excited about the high probability of a coming rise of historical proportions. I can hope, but. . .
Agnico-Eagle Mines: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Anglogold: a+4, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
ASA: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: buy, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: a+4, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold:
Gold Fields: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: buy, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: buy, a+4, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold:
Meridian Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Pan American Silver: buy, a+4, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Abwärtstrend
Randgold $ Exploration: a+2, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung

Im bull market befinden sich und sind somit die stärksten Werte momentan: CDE, DROOY, GFI, GG, HL, KGC, MDG, PAAS, RANGY, RGLD, SIL!

[YoyoStock]

@p.wedemeier

mit dem gestrigen tag hat dann wohl die trendumkehr stattgefunden

[Stephen]

Wo ist BEMA??

[peter.wedemeier1]

After hitting the 35-39 index on Tuesday, gold stocks declined slightly on Wednesday with USERX dropping 2 cents to 5.33. That poor showing lead to today`s 4% drop to USERX 5.12, with prices falling back below all of the 35-39 index back prices.

We rose 10% in 2 days into resistance and the resistance won. As I had reported after Tuesday`s rise, a continued rise to generate a large buy signal would have been a very rare event. I hoped for it, but I do not have a clear short-term call here, but would look for some continued decline tomorrow.

Thereafter, if prices rise into Wednesday or Thursday of next week, I`d recommend selling out any long positions initiated on the last 16-20 index signal at 5.65. We can rise up to about 5.90 at that time without generating any signals.

It appears that the intermediate correction has not been completed. The 35-39 index signal last Friday appears to have been the beginning of the intermediate bottoming process, a process that is likely to continue for about 39 trading days from that 35-39 index signal.

In other words, a summer of whipsaws and probably one more new correction low in about 3 weeks. Conservative traders/investors should continue to be patient, waiting for the next 35-39 index buy signal that should come right at the Labor Day weekend, marking the next major multi-month leg up.

Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Anglogold: buy, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Apex Silver Mines: buy, a+1, buy, Konsolidierung
ASA: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: buy, a+1, buy, Konsolidierung
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Cambior: a+4, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Coeur Dalene Mines: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, a+3, Konsolidierung
Glamis Gold: buy, buy, buy, Konsolidierung
Gold Fields: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Goldcorp: a+4, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Harmony Gold Mining: buy, buy, k. A.,
Hecla Mining: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: a+4, sell, buy Konsolidierung
Lihir Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Meridian Gold: buy, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Newmont Mining: buy, sell, sell, Abwärtstrend
Pan American Silver: buy, buy, buy Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell Abwärtstrend
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: buy, a+2, buy, Konsolidierung

Im bull market befinden sich und sind somit die stärksten Werte momentan: ASL, CDE, GLG, GFI, GG, HL, KGC, MDG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL!

[peter.wedemeier1]

RANGY befindet sich natürlich auch im bull market und gehört somit zu den stärksten Minen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Wednesday July 24th, 2002

The markets are behaving normally, albeit in an extreme fashion that occurs once every 4-7 years. USERX collapsed 50 cents to 4.16, dropping 16% in two days. This is supposed to be a buy spike. I hope that you didn`t sell today, but even if you did sell for safety`s sake, you can always buy back over the next 5 weeks.

The critical 92-96 index is still 10-12% below the market and will rise into the $4 range in 8 trading days. If we fall another 10-12% tomorrow, the 92-96 will sell out in 4 days, ending any chance of a bull market. Since it has already fallen 16% in 2 days, such an unprecedented fall would signal a deflationary depression and new all-time lows in the gold stocks. I am betting against such a scenario, having bought today`s down spike. Even if this were to occur, the market will rebound from the 92-96 sell signal (indicating that the XXing Out was correct) into an XXed Out buy signal and a shorting point which will be higher than today`s closing price.

Alternatively, if we get an up day tomorrow I will declare that the intermediate bottom is in. We would either fly 10% up tomorrow OR we will rise 2% a day for 5 or more consecutive days. This favored scenario says that today was the intermediate bottom and that a 35-39 index buy signal will follow at the very end of August (39-40 days from the 35-39 "sell" signal) leading to a rise to 12.50. Today should have been the "head" of the bottoming pattern with the left shoulder occurring in about 3 weeks.

For those of you that are new to the gold stock market (i.e., less than 10 years of experience) this pattern is normal. If you sold at 70 days after the last 35-39 buy signal (USERX = about 4.20) the price is now lower than that sell day, even though you thought I was absolutely wrong in advocating selling. If we are in a bull market, such a pattern will recur. Do not chase this market higher. Try to buy on pull-backs, it will always pull-back in a dramatic manner, often months later.

I am sorry to say that whether we get the 92-96 sell signal or whether today was the bottom, the financial world appears to be in severe chaos. The only question is whether the gold stocks fall into the abyss over the next 18 months before exploding or whether they explode from today to unprecedented heights over the next several years. I am bullish until the 92-96 index sells. As posted earlier today, this drop is classic intermediate bottoming action, a 2 up and 6 down run followed by two little up days and a dramatic two-day collapse. An up close tomorrow will provide substantial confirmation that today was the bottom and I will go to 150% long on the next pull-back in a few weeks. I will then go to 200% long on the anticipated 35-39 index buy signal at the end of August. Oh yes, tonight marks a full moon. Bottom or real decimation tomorrow?
Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Apex Silver Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
ASA: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: a+3, sell, sell, Abwärts
Coeur Dalene Mines: sell, sell, buy, Aufwärtstrend
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Glamis Gold: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung
Gold Fields: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Goldcorp: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Golden Star Resources: k. A., k. A., k. A.
Harmony Gold Mining: sell, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Hecla Mining: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Meridian Gold: sell, sell, sell Konsolidierung
Pan American Silver: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Royal Gold: sell, sell,sell, Konsolidierung
Silver Standard Resources: sell, sell, buy, Konsolidierung

Im bull market befinden sich und sind somit die stärksten Werte momentan: CDE, GLG, SSRI.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Thursday July 25th, 2002

Our gold stocks survived the day! After opening sharply down and apparently hitting the 92-96 index (the death area for the bull), USERX reversed and closed up 7 cents at 4.23. Actually, USERX was still slightly down with about 20 minutes to go and I had to tell my wife that unless the XAU flew at the end that USERX would close down and then plunge tomorrow. Thank G-d, the plunge protection team, the Fed, or really, HUMAN BEHAVIOR that we got the reversal.

Today was consistent with yesterday`s close being THE intermediate low. Confirmation will only occur if/when we get the next 35-39 index buy signal without first getting a 92-96 index sell signal. That buy signal should occur on the last day of August. Right now, 4 or more consecutive 2% up closes in USERX will complete the classic bottoming pattern. Yesterday should have been the head of the head and shoulders bottoming process. The last 35-39 index "sell" signal from 13 trading days ago at the 4.86 low should have been the left shoulder. We should never close below yesterday`s 4.16 closing price. We should rise to about the 5-5.35 area and then fall back into the 4.50-4.90 area to form the right shoulder, and then get the 35-39 buy signal on a rise over 5.05 to start the next multi-month leg up.

I repost from yesterday: "Alternatively, if we get an up day tomorrow I will declare that the intermediate bottom is in. We would either fly 10% up tomorrow OR we will rise 2% a day for 5 or more consecutive days. This favored scenario says that today was the intermediate bottom and that a 35-39 index buy signal will follow at the very end of August (39-40 days from the 35-39 "sell" signal) leading to a rise to 12.50. Today should have been the "head" of the bottoming pattern with the left shoulder occurring in about 3 weeks. For those of you that are new to the gold stock market (i.e., less than 10 years of experience) this pattern is normal. If you sold at 70 days after the last 35-39 buy signal (USERX = about 4.20) the price is now lower than that sell day, even though you thought I was absolutely wrong in advocating selling. If we are in a bull market, such a pattern will recur. Do not chase this market higher. Try to buy on pull-backs, it will always pull-back in a dramatic manner, often months later. I am sorry to say that whether we get the 92-96 sell signal or whether today was the bottom, the financial world appears to be in severe chaos. The only question is whether the gold stocks fall into the abyss over the next 18 months before exploding or whether they explode from today to unprecedented heights over the next several years. I am bullish until the 92-96 index sells. As posted earlier today, this drop is classic intermediate bottoming action, a 2 up and 6 down run followed by two little up days and a dramatic two-day collapse.

An up close tomorrow will provide substantial confirmation that today was the bottom and I will go to 150% long on the next pull-back in a few weeks. I will then go to 200% long on the anticipated 35-39 index buy signal at the end of August. Oh yes, tonight marks a full moon. Bottom or real decimation tomorrow?" Note that the full moon correlation with the gold stocks is real, though unexplainable.
Agnico-Eagle Mines: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Anglogold: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Apex Silver Mines: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
ASA: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.
Ashanti Goldfields: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Barrick Gold: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Cambior: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Cameco: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Cia de Minas Buenaventura: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Coeur Dalene Mines: sell, sell, buy, Aufwärtstrend
Crystallex International: sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Durban Roodeport Deep: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Glamis Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Gold Fields: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Goldcorp: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Golden Star Resources: k. A., k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Harmony Gold Mining: sell, sell, k. A., k. A., k. A.,
Hecla Mining: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Kinross Gold: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Meridian Gold: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Newmont Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Pan American Silver: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Placer Dome: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts
Randgold $ Exploration: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Richmont Mines: sell, sell, k. A., k. A.,
Royal Gold: sell, sell,sell, Konsolidierung
Silver Standard Resources: sell, sell, sell, Konsolidierung
Stillwater Mining: sell, sell, sell, Abwärts

Im bull market befindet sich und ist somit der stärkste Wert momentan: Coeur Dalene Mines (CDE)

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Monday July 29th, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern07_29_02.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Tuesday July 30th, 2002

Gold stocks rebounded today, but USERX continued to under-perform to the upside and over-perform to the downside, closing up 15 cents to 3.73. The 92-96 index gave a +2 today (back prices of 3.84, 3.73, 3.71, 3.71, and 3.63). The index continues to break towards its sell signal. A drop of 11 cents or more tomorrow will generate the sell signal to be executed on Wednesday. A rise of 10 cents tomorrow will yield a +5 and continue today`s hope that the signal will be avoided and that the bull can continue. Remember that Saturday`s Update stated that once the break happens, a 1-2 day bounce is usually followed by a drop into the signal. Today`s bounce was not yet particularly encouraging.

The same scenario appears to be unfolding in the general stock market. Today`s strong stock market rise can easily give way to some hard selling. I am concerned that today`s strong rise will give way to a down day tomorrow, dragging the gold stocks down and generating the 92-96 index sell signal.

Gold itself was down for five consecutive days into Friday`s close. Such runs have continued beyond 6 consecutive days on only two occasions in history. I`m still trying to figure out whether CASH gold closed up or down today. COMEX indicates an unchanged day (continuing the run to six days, counting as a down day) but other sites indicate an up 20 cents close on cash gold. A small up close today would be particularly discouraging, while a down close would predict an up day tomorrow. I can`t verify the closing price for cash gold today. My empirical work indicates that analyses that focus on futures markets are distorted by interest rates and other factors. Conduct analyses on cash gold.

I don`t have much else to report until the 92-96 signal is generated or we rise away from those back prices. Today gave gold bulls some hope, but it needs to continue. If the signal is avoided, conservative investors should continue to wait to buy until a 35-39 index buy signal is generated.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Thursday August 1st, 2002

Gold stocks surged yesterday (Tuesday), with USERX rising 6% to 3.95. That yielded a +5 for the day on the 92-96 index, but since a +5 also dropped out of the index, the index was basically unchanged (+48 plus the acceleration factor of 0/2 equaling +48). That was necessary, encouraging, and consistent with the bottom being in place. However, as previously stated, a 1-2 day rise would not prove anything.

Today (Wednesday), the gold stocks fell slightly, with USERX dropping only 5 cents to 3.90. Note that the 92-96 day back prices for today were 3.90, 3.83, 3.84, 3.63, and 3.71. So we hit the 3.90 price, but closed over the other 4 prices to yield a +4 for today. A +5 was removed, with the index sum falling to +44 with an acceleration factor of [48-44]/2 yielding a +42.

Today`s price was perfect for keeping the bear/bull issue somewhat up in the air. The index keeps breaking, which is dangerous and bearish because if the 92-96 sells it will occur on a plunge down. However, today`s decline did the least possible damage to the index!

I strongly believe, based upon past index patterns, that the bears have 2 more days left to demonstrate their case via another hard fall. On Friday the 7/26/02 reading of minus five on the 92-96 index will be dropping out. If the bears are to be correct, a new minus five should replace it on that day. That means that USERX will need to be below 3.83 on Friday. Furthermore, to maintain the bullish case by avoiding the 92-96 index sell signal, prices will need to be in the 4.10-4.40 range within 7 trading days.

Gold`s six-day down run was obviously ended yesterday, as expected. After that one up close, anything is allowed to happen. Therefore, gold`s run pattern is not helpful in predicting tomorrow`s market behavior.

In conclusion, this is all very tenuous. If the XXing Out was basically correct, the market has 2 more days to commence another drop. Otherwise, we should avoid the 92-96 sell signal and rise to a new 35-39 index buy signal by the end of August, embarking on another dramatic leg up over the remainder of the year.

[Guru-Schreck]

Gold
von Stefan Salomon, Freier Autor

Nach der immensen Ralley des Goldpreises wurde und wird unentwegt zum Kauf von Goldminen geraten. Die Empfehlung, bei einem Ausbruch aus einer „vermeintlichen Flagge“ Mitte Juni die Aktie der südafrikanischen Goldmine „Harmony Gold“ – WKN 884439 zu kaufen, war damals richtig, ebenso jedoch die Empfehlung, am Einstand oder knapp darüber abzusichern.

Denn schon damals reagierte der Goldpreis nicht mehr bzw. nur noch wenig auf die Abwärtsbewegungen an den US-Börsen. Ein nochmaliges Aufflackern an der Goldfront bewirkte jedoch in der aktuellen Erholung der US-Märkte ein noch tieferes Absinken des Goldpreises.

Mittlerweile muss mit einem Test der 300er Marke und damit eines flacheren Aufwärtstrends gerechnet werden. Ohne Zweifel baut sich hier eine spekulative Blase in Gold ab. Ein Break des Aufwärtstrends dürfte nochmals zu nachgebenden Kursen führen bis in den Bereich um 290 $. Insofern besteht derzeit kein Handlungsbedarf.

Erst ein Rebreak der 306,85 dürfte die Lage aufhellen und ein kurzfristiges Kaufsignal liefern.

Stefan Salomon
www.candlestick.de

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Friday August 2nd, 2002

Gold stocks played beautifully, but scarily today, with key technical levels on the 92-96 index. Prices plunged gap down on the open to the point where I was ready to mark down a 92-96 index sell signal for tomorrow. The signal would have been generated today by a fall of 8 cents (2%) or more. Shortly following the open, after having filled an up gap from two days ago, the buyers drove the golds higher, lifting USERX into apparent positive territory and causing me to consider buying today. Then the sellers came in again and drove USERX to a close of 3.89, down 1 cent (Yesterday I had been expecting a drop of 5 cents to 3.85, based on the back prices and the need to stay above 3.83 to avoid the signal). Note that USERX was not the only mutual fund to close down (due to the poor performance of some small Toronto Exchange gold stocks). Despite the nice intra-day reversal to the upside in gold and most gold stocks, today was not a rousing bull day given that gold closed up and USERX closed down.

Therefore, the 92-96 index continued to break towards its sell signal, standing at a +1 for the day, a +28 on the velocity, and a +20 overall. MOST interestingly, no matter how much USERX falls tomorrow, it cannot generate the 92-96 sell signal tomorrow: the ­5 from last Friday`s plunge comes out of the index tomorrow, such that replacing it with another ­5 doesn`t change the index. Even if we plunge tomorrow it would be possible (though amazing and not my prediction) for the gold stocks to rise 10-12% on Monday to avoid the signal. An up close tomorrow would begin to move the index away from the 92-96 sell signal and will make me strongly consider buying. The 92-96 back prices are rising, hitting 4.09 on Monday, indicating that if the signal is to be avoided, and the long-term trend is to remain up, the gold stocks will need to continue to rise and rise and rise.

During the bull markets of the late 1970s, the early 1980s, 1993, and after any other major rise since 1974, the 92-96 sell signal has been generated after prices have hit the 92-96 index. I therefore have to guess to this will happen again, but it`s just a guess based on history. Conservative investors can continue to wait for thethe next 35-39 index buy signal (that will come at over 5.00) at the end of August. The 92-96 sell signal would indicates that the long-term trend is down. However, it does not indicate that prices have to continue to fall over the short-term or the intermediate-term. Again, more on that if the signal is generated. We continue to be at a critical point on the 92-96 index. It has to be resolved very soon. At the risk of sounding melodramatic, the ramifications right here are severe and pervade across the economic landscape.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Monday August 5th, 2002

Gold stocks rose moderately today, with USERX gaining 16 cents (4%) to 4.05. I bought on this up day, as indicated yesterday. Although there wasn`t a specific index signal for today, I had several reasons for buying. First, and most importantly, the 92-96 index back prices provide a fast and rising stop. By next Thursday, in 4 trading days, the back prices will be 4.09. 4.25, 4.14, 4.37, and 4.42. In other words, if the price is lower than all of these back prices on Thursday and Friday, the 92-96 index will sell. The risk is still there for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but again, the sell will occur in about 2 days if prices fall quickly, limiting the loss. Second, today marked the first day that the 92-96 index began to move (mathematically) away from its potential sell signal. The index gave a +3 today, replacing a ­5 from last Friday, rising to a total +76.

So I bought on the 7/23/02 plunge at 4.16, got stopped out for safety`s sake on 7/25 at 3.96, and re-bought today at 4.05. Going out and then back in cost me about 2.5% for the "insurance" it provided. It`s always psychologically difficult to stop oneself out of a long position and then to quickly buy back in at a higher price. After all, prices could start right back down again, causing even more distress! Nonetheless, unless one is a perfect trader/investor, one has to be able to learn to do that.

We`ve hopefully completed a fairly straight line plunge bottom from the early June top. The gold stocks` up moves during this period only lasted 1 or 2 days at a time (once 3 days). I had expected a head and shoulders bottom, but if we`ve seen the low, we`ve just completed the left side of a "V" bottom. The 92-96 back prices will be rising and rising for the next 60 trading days. Prices will need to gradually and steadily move up week after week, with only small and very short corrections, to avoid the 92-96 index sell signal. We need to form the inverse of the down move and form the right hand side of a "V" on the way up. As usual, there is still no need to expect some type of great explosion over the next few weeks. For example, in 2 weeks from now, the 92-96 back prices are still in the 4.26-4.36 range. Those rising 92-96 back prices are my mathematical definition of the expression "Climbing a Wall of Worry"! We may keep dropping down or staying slightly under some of the back prices, hitting/breaking the index, even if the gold stocks do indeed keep rising.

Prices need to rise all month and generate the conservative investors` 35-39 buy signal by the last day of August. That buy-in price (if we have indeed seen the bottom last week) will seem high, at over 5.00, but will portend another multi-month major rise to come. Furthermore, the 92-96 back prices will be rising into the 4.75-5.08 area at that time, providing for a continuing fast stop loss point.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Tuesday August 6th, 2002

Dare I write this tonight? Gold stocks opened higher and then fell, with most U.S. gold indices posting key reversals down. However, USERX and many gold mutual funds fell only slightly, with USERX dropping 2% to 2.97 and FSAGX falling only 2 cents. The mutual funds` muted fall kept the hope of an intermediate-term bottom alive. What`s going on?

The 92-96 index on USERX fell slightly today, yielding a +1 and an overall +52. Although the dramatic XAU sell-off didn`t affect the index significantly, we are hitting "the wall of worry" and the "do or die moment" again, pushing the limits of the 92-96 index (surprise, surprise!). Such dramatics! Today`s action caused me to have multiple seizures, but I did nothing, holding the long position from Friday. The massive key reversal down in the XAU, as I have repeatedly stated, is not historically a good predictor of further down movement, but sometimes it is right. So I try to ignore it (behaviorally, but emotionally it hits home).

The important 92-96 index requires a move up over 4.09 (3%) within the next two trading days to avoid the 92-96 sell signal (long-term deflation again). A drop tomorrow below 3.90 (USERX down 2%) will generate the 92-96 sell signal for Wednesday. If that appears likely to be happening tomorrow, I`ll likely be capitulating at another loss, fearing a plunge into the execution day on Wednesday and turning the long-term trend to the downside. We need to rise and climb the "wall of worry". Price needs to at least hold tomorrow and rise by Thursday.

I wanted to capitulate today, but I`m trying to hold on unless we get the 92-96 sell signal. I guess I just should have made life easier and avoided the greed, waiting for a clear 35-39 index buy signal as the system demands. But it looked and felt like a bottom at 3.58, and it still could have been a major bottom in a bull market. Time is running out again as the 92-96 back price rise.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Wednesday August 7th, 2002

Another scary day as the gold stocks gyrated before closing higher at the end of the day. If you`re not calculating the 92-96 index you are missing the pain and the understanding that the markets are not random. USERX could have gotten slammed down yesterday, selling the 92-96 index out, but the Toronto gold stocks were closed, muting yesterday`s drop. Today, USERX opened at about 8 cents down ( based upon estimates from their trend at 1-800-USFUNDS and my attempt to mimic their portfolio ) , largely due to the Toronto golds falling from yesterday. An 8-cent drop at the close would have been exactly the number needed to sell the 92-96 index. Of-course, I was beside myself and was to the point of planning never to write this Update again. Enough was enough. As I contemplated selling, I calmed enough to think that this was IT again, that the maximum pain and uncertainty had arrived again, that yesterday`s massive key reversal down in major gold indices should be wrong and have wiped more longs out of the market, that the low was in at 3.58, and that the gold stocks HAD to rise by the close. And they did, though not particularly impressively. USERX closed up 4 cents at 4.01.

The wall of worry will hopefully continue for another 50 trading days as the back 92-96 prices keep rising. Send donations for massages. Tomorrow, Wednesday, the 92-96 will generate a sell signal if USERX does not rise by 8 cents or more to 4.09. And then we have to continue to rise this week to at least 4.39 or higher ( estimated, see Updates each day ) . Therefore, I have to expect a moderate gold stock explosion through the remainder of this week. The pressure continues.

Note again that yesterday`s key reversals down in the XAU and HUI may have been fake-outs to scare the last "weak" longs. I hope so. Best wishes.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Thursday August 8th, 2002

Although some gold stock investors may have been discouraged today by an apparently laskluster rise in the gold stocks while gold itself rose almost $9, today was, once again, technically perfect based upon the 92-96 index. USERX surged 6% to 4.26. Yesterday I wrote that we HAD to rise right now and get a small explosion. Gold certainly did it on cue, as did USERX. USERX surged due to 8-18% up days in the small Toronto gold stocks (as I said yesterday was the thing that was needed).

The 92-96 back prices today were at 3.94, 4.09, 4.25, 4.14, and 4.37. We HAD to rise over 4.09 to avoid the 92-96 sell signal. Even if we had risen to 4.10, the rising back prices over the next few days would have been close to impossible to overcome. I had guessed last night that we really needed at close over 4.25. Voila, 4.26! Perfection.

The 92-96 back prices keep rising and we need to continue higher over the next few days. However, tomorrow, only a close at 4.09 or below ( a big drop ) would sell the index out. So, based upon the index alone we are allowed to fall tomorrow. After all, the XAU has an up gap from today that might be filled and gold is unlikely to have an up day tomorrow after today`s large rise.

However, the run analyses come into play right now for the short-term. We are 1 day down and 2 days up. When the 92-96 and the 35-39 indices are on buys, such runs only mark highs about 25% of the time (see the 6/3/02 exact high). When both the 92-96 and the 35-39 indices are on sells, this run marks highs at about an 80% rate. Currently, we are on a 92-96 buy and a 35-39 sell, essentially what is supposed to be a trough (intermediate correction in a possible bull). The 1 down, 2 up run has only occurred 4 times under such circumstances. It has exactly marked a 1-2 week high each time. The N is small, only 4 times. Nonetheless, this strongly suggests that we cannot afford a down day tomorrow in USERX because a correction of even a few days would sell the 92-96 index out. That is my reasoning based upon the indices and the run pattern. We need an unchanged or up day tomorrow in USERX.

It is therefore possible that the market will hit me (and maybe you if you`re studying these writings) with even more fear again tomorrow. The golds could open down, the XAU could even erase all of today`s gains and close today`s up gap, and then edge higher throughout the day, with USERX looking to be down a few pennies into the close. Uncertainty and fear. But USERX should still close unchanged or up.

The wall of worry and rising back prices (as well as a beautiful rising stop) stands ahead and can continue for another 50 trading days, until the gold stocks make new highs. I could even hazard a well-educated guess for the day they reach new closing highs. Take the last June high and go forward 92-96 days. The back prices do drop some in another 8 trading days, allowing for a fall at that time.

Despite today`s rise and perfection, I remain highly fearful. I once again thought of selling today. That`s the way the golds almost always seem to play.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Friday August 9th, 2002

Yesterday`s Update looked for a down day in gold for today (Thursday) and a down opening in the gold stocks. It was hoped, for the bullish case, that the gold stocks would fall to close upside gaps left from Wednesday`s surge and then recover, with USERX closing unchanged to up. A close today at 4.09 or lower would have generated the 92-96 index signal.

Today began as expected, but the gold stocks failed to show any signs of recovery, closing down. The short-term bearish 1 down and 2 up run pattern was therefore completed. USERX once again behaved technically beautifully, closing done 16 cents to close at 4.10, one penny above the price needed to generate the 92-96 index. The index is now at a total of only +4. Tomorrow, USERX must rise more than 7%, climbing above 4.37, to avoid the 92-96 signal.

This 1 down, 2 up pattern, that has occurred only 4 prior times in the past 28 years (at a time when the 92-96 index is on a buy and the 35-39 index is on a sell), has always been followed by 2 to 5 hard down days, usually dropping 12-20%. Furthermore, historically, when the 92-96 index sell signal occurs, prices fall hard into that signal. I therefore sold my USERX today at a 1% profit since last Friday and am expecting a very fast and hard drop to a new low (below USERX 3.58) by Monday`s close. I`ll have plenty of egg on my face if the gold stocks do the opposite and close up 7% tomorrow. Actually, I would be most surprised if the gold had a small up or down day. Tomorrow is supposed to exhibit a dramatic price move!

A 92-96 sell signal for execution next Monday does not mean that the gold stocks will continue to immediately fall after that signal. Rather, it would confirm the validity of the XXing Out rules and my being "betwixt and between" since last December. More importantly, it would call this year`s bull rise a "fake bull" and re-confirm, at this point in time, deflation over inflation for the next few years. The signal will probably finally mark the END of this intermediate bottoming process, but indicate that the ensuing multi-month rise will set the stage for further declines to lower lows. Perhaps gold will still climb to new yearly highs while USERX and many gold stocks will under-perform.

[Synopsis: Plunge for 2 days to a low, several month recovery rally that shows divergences, then down.]