URUGUAY - die Rettung ist nah! 4 top-aktuelle Quellen... - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

Hier 4 Artikel zu den Details der aktuellen Entwicklung.

Zusammenfassung der 4 Artikel weiter unten in diesem Posting: URU bekommt naechste Woche 1,5 Mrd, das wurde von den USA verbal zugesagt (muss aber noch unterschrieben werden. Es besteht also ein Restrisiko, aber kein sehr hohes). Andere Berichte sprechen von einem 4,7 oder gar 5 Mrd -Package, mehrere Mrd reserviert fuer Schulendienst, also nicht um den Deposit-run zu stemmen (dafuer ist eine andere Tranche reserviert).

URU wird abgehen wie Russland nach 98 (von 30 auf 100 in 2 Jahren)

Nun die 4 Artikel:

31Jul2002 URUGUAY: Minister - Govt. to receive US$1.5bn aid.
Banco Central de UruguayInternational Monetary Fund
Multilateral institutions have agreed to provide US$1.5bn to help Uruguay pay off external debt, Uruguayan daily El Observador reported, quoting economy minister Alejandro Atchugarry.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will provide US$700mn and the US treasury will provide US$800mn early next week, thus avoiding the need for a permanent deposit freeze.
The aid agreement comes just as Uruguay`s President Jorge Batlle issued a decree to extend Tuesday`s banking holiday until Monday, August 5. However, it included a clause allowing the central bank to partially or fully lift the measure depending on the circumstances, and limited ATM withdrawals were possible on Wednesday.
Uruguay`s neighbor Argentina implemented a similar deposit freeze in December 2001 to head off a run on banks, and is still trying to resolve its financial crisis in order to obtain multilateral assistance.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has downgraded Uruguay`s long-term foreign currency rating to `B` from `B+` and the long-term local currency rating to `B` from `BB-`, the agency said in a statement. The Rating Watch Negative status assigned on May 28 is removed. The Rating Outlook is Negative. The short-term foreign currency rating remains at `B`.
This latest downgrade reflects the increasingly precarious level of reserves, now at US$725mn, compared to US$1.8bn at the beginning of June. Even with programmed IMF disbursements in August, reserves can barely sustain one further month`s fall at the recent pace of decline, and the authorities cannot afford to provide liquidity support at present levels without jeopardizing sovereign creditworthiness. Fitch said it would closely monitor the pace of deposit withdrawal and the extent to which the banking crisis further compromises the capacity of the government to meet its debt obligations.
A US$500mn enhanced IMF program in June was directed first and foremost at strengthening the banking system by creating a fund (FFSB) to provide liquidity support. However, the current program of IMF disbursements and the present funding of FFSB is clearly unable to keep pace with the rate of deposit outflow, Fitch said, before news of the US$1.5bn aid program broke.
Nevertheless, Uruguay is not only in a good position to learn from Argentina`s treatment of its own reserve crisis, but it also has more political cohesion. "Last week`s changes in the economic team resulted in improved support within the government coalition and from the opposition - and there is considerable multilateral support, as the IMF is exploring acceleration of disbursements," Fitch sovereign ratings senior director Richard Fox told BNamericas.
"The key thing is to decide how the FFSB will be funded, and to make sure the funding is available upfront. However, of the similarities with Argentina`s situation, one of the biggest is dollarization, which makes it highly reliant on external funding," he said.
If the funding available to the FFSB is not accelerated to finance an orderly drawdown of non-resident deposits, less orthodox approaches such as capital and/or deposit controls become more likely.
Even when a solution is found to the problem of deposit withdrawals, Uruguay`s rating will remain under pressure due to the impact of recession and exchange rate weakness on public finances. GDP is likely to fall 7% this year and recovery prospects are tied especially to those of Argentina. And Uruguay`s now floating currency will be heavily influenced by currency developments in Brazil and Argentina. Public debt is likely to exceed 80% of GDP this year, S&P
Events in Uruguay are unlikely to aggravate the situation in Brazil because Brazil`s condition is largely internal, Fox said. "It is Argentina and Brazil that have been influencing Uruguay, but if Uruguay is forced to implement capital controls it will have a negative effect on Latin America in general."
http://www.bnamericas.com

01Aug2002 EEUU: Uruguay.-Uruguay recibirá cerca de 1.500 millones de dólares de ayuda financiera procedente de
MONTEVIDEO, 1 (EUROPA PRESS/EL OBSERVADOR)
El director de la Oficina de Planeamiento y Presupuesto (OPP) de Uruguay, Ariel Davrieux, regresó ayer de su visita a Estados Unidos, donde se reunió con las autoridades del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) para negociar una ayuda financiera, y confirmó que el país recibirá una asistencia cercana a los 1.500 millones de dólares.
Ariel Davrieux aclaró a su llegada al aeropuerto internacional de Montevideo que el Gobierno no realizará ninguna reforma especial y que en el extranjero predomina la idea de que el sistema uruguayo, "aunque tiene dificultades, hay que defenderlo".
Además señaló que la negociación con el FMI "está encaminada pero no terminada". El director de la OPP regresó para instrumentar los cambios en el sistema financiero mientras el resto de la delegación sigue en Washington con las conversaciones.
Según Davrieux, la suspensión de las actividades bancarias es "fundamental" para trabajar en los cambios necesarios que deben implementarse en el sistema para otorgar las garantías de que el dinero no se volverá a escapar del país.
El ministro de Economía, Alejandro Atchugarry, había confirmado por la mañana que el país recibirá "ayuda adicional" del FMI y de Estados Unidos, y anunció que se mentiene hasta el viernes la prolongación del `feriado` bancario.
Durante una conferencia de prensa en el Edificio Libertad, sede de la Presidencia, el ministro, nombrado la semana pasada en reemplazo de Alberto Bensión, señaló que los detalles de la "ayuda adicional" serán divulgados la próxima semana.
(c) 2002 Europa Press

31Jul2002 ARGENTINA: With Foreign Help, Uruguay Aims To Avoid Argentina`s Fate.
By Charles Roth.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)-Uruguay`s financial system may be in a heap of trouble, and in desperate need of new aid from the International Monetary Fund and others, but another Argentina it clearly doesn`t want to be.
Economy Minister Alejandro Atchugarry said a banking holiday first declared Tuesday would be extended through Friday. The closure of banks was aimed at stopping a hemorrhage in bank deposits and international reserves while giving Uruguayan officials time to stitch together a new international assistance package in Washington.
Late last year, neighboring Argentina decreed a number of banking holidays also to stop runs on banks, but in December ended up imposing capital controls. The actions didn`t avoid a default on $141 billion in public debt later that month and a steep currency devaluation in January.
With its capital controls still in place, Argentina`s payments system remains badly hamstrung. The country`s financial meltdown is expected to produce an economic contraction of up to 15% this year, even after spending the last four years in recession.
Following up on an usually strong statement of support from the U.S. Treasury late Tuesday, Atchugarry said Wednesday Uruguayans could take hope in the "positive signals" from out of Washington.
Indeed, Treasury stated that "the U.S. government stands ready to support additional assistance for Uruguay from the IMF and other international financial institutions."
Uruguay`s local press Wednesday reported a new package amounting to $4.7 billion, of which $1.5 billion would be ready for release as soon as early next week.
That first installment would be aimed at covering any continued deposit withdrawals and supporting the payments system. Another $2.1 million would be directed toward bolstering Uruguay`s public debt servicing, while the purpose of the balance $1.1 billion remains unclear, according to the local press.
Uruguay`s negotiators in Washington are expected to return Thursday. The country currently has a $3 billion package with the IMF covering this year and next.
An IMF spokesman, who said he had no information on new aid for Uruguay, said that, generally speaking, the Fund exercises "flexibility" when needed by accelerating disbursements, augmenting existing programs or even replacing them with new packages complete with revised program targets.
Uruguay, for its part, appears amenable to undertaking various reforms - especially in the banking sector - that would likely be required with fresh financial assistance.
At his press briefing Wednesday, Atchugarry reportedly said that "additional (international) help" will "surely" be accompanied by "some modification" in the Letter of Intent that Uruguay signed with the IMF last month.
Observers take this to mean the introduction of an inflation-targeting regime and a major restructuring in the banking sector. The latter would include the creation of a fund "to provide liquidity support and in some cases solvency support, with appropriate conditionality," as Fitch, the ratings agency, said in a Tuesday report.
The economy minister was more explicit about ruling out price and capital controls to avoid an Argentina-like paralysis of Uruguay`s payments system.
But given the extent of the bloodletting in bank deposits and international reserves, doubts on Wall Street have surfaced about Uruguay`s ability to avoid some form of restrictions on deposit withdrawals or deposit swaps for public debt instruments, even with new help from abroad.
According to Cristian Krossler, Standard & Poor`s banking analyst for Argentina and Uruguay, bank deposits have declined to about $10 billion from more than $13 billion at the beginning of the year.
Most of that fall has come in recent months, thanks in no small measure to the June 20 devaluation of Uruguay`s peso, which has since lost nearly half its value against the dollar. Snuggled between Argentina and Brazil, which has seen its financial assets plunge on political uncertainty ahead of October elections, Uruguay has been badly hit by the market turmoil buffeting its giant neighbors.
Uruguay`s "situation is critical," UBS Warburg said in a Wednesday report, citing the steep decline in international reserves.
Reserves slipped to around $650 million earlier this week, down from $2.9 billion at the end of 2001 and $1.5 billion at end-June.
Credit Suisse First Boston said in its daily report that a new international package should include not just "immediate additional financing on the order of $1 billion or more," but also restrictions on capital or deposit withdrawals, or both. "Balance-of-payments based financial restrictions would be less damaging to financial system confidence than would deposit controls, but may not be sufficient," it explained.
More details on banking reforms are needed to "support confidence in the banking system," and perhaps a "near-term" relaxation of fiscal targets given the tremendous economic impact of the capital flight, CSFB added.
S&P`s Krossler also said a headline-grabbing IMF-led cash infusion wouldn`t be enough to restore confidence in the banking system. But indications of major restructuring in the country`s banking system could do the trick.
He noted that state-owned and state-controlled banks, which include private Uruguayan banks that have been bailed out by the state, all together make up around 70% of the country`s financial system. Foreign banks compose most of the balance.
Krossler didn`t discount that authorities, which have already "suspended" activities in three Uruguayan banks, may resort to some measures on deposits at publicly owned or controlled banks as consolidation in the sector is undertaken.
But he doubted that authorities would extend capital controls to the international banks present in the country, as Argentina did. That blanket decree, he said, required foreign banks to break their contracts and contributed to the breakdown in that country`s payments system.
In Uruguay, the foreign banks either have sufficient liquidity or parents with deep pockets that would likely be averse to forsaking their rather tiny liabilities, he said.
Citigroup Inc.`s (C) Citibank, for example, likely has between $300 million and $350 million in deposits in Uruguay. "It would be silly for Citibank to damage its franchise for such peanuts," he said.
Whether all the help from abroad and the banking sector reforms will be enough to help Uruguay avoid a debt default remains to be seen, and depends in large part on developments in Brazil and Argentina, analysts say.


31Jul2002 URUGUAY: VALORA GOBIERNO URUGUAYO UNION DEL PAIS ANTE CRISIS FINANCIERA.
Montevideo, 31 Jul (Notimex) - El ministro de Economía de Uruguay, Alejandro Atchugarry, valoró hoy la unión del país ante la crisis financiera que enfrenta y que llevó al gobierno a prolongar el feriado bancario hasta el próximo viernes.
"Estamos conscientes de la dificultad que manejamos y también estamos conscientes que el país está unido, que la sociedad está dispuesta a ir resolviendo los problemas que son, en muy buena medida, resultado de las dificultades de la Argentina", afirmó.
El funcionario expresó en rueda de prensa su confianza en que "Uruguay está en un rumbo firme y siento que todos perciben las dificultades. Hoy tenemos herramientas para labrar nuestro destino, pero el trabajo no será fácil para nada".
Anunció que probablemente este jueves entregarán al Senado algunas modificaciones a la ley que fortalece el sistema bancario "y le pediremos al Parlamento el mayor esfuerzo para ver si es posible obtener una sanción legislativa antes del próximo lunes".
Atchugarry apuntó que urge que el Congreso Nacional apruebe las modificaciones para que "el Banco Central esté en condiciones el próximo lunes de tener todas las herramientas para poner a funcionar de nuevo el sistema financiero".
Respecto de la ayuda financiera adicional que recibirá Uruguay de organismos internacionales, explicó que los detalles de estasn operaciones, por un monto cercano a los mil 500 millones de dólares, serán entregados la próxima semana.
El titular de Economía adelantó sin embargo que "seguramente habrá alguna modificación" a la carta de intención que la administración del presidente Jorge Batlle acordó hace unos días con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).
El gobierno uruguayo, a solicitud del Banco Central, prolongó este miércoles el feriado bancario decretado la víspera hasta el próximo viernes, medida que excluye la operación de los cajeros automáticos, para que los trabajadores puedan cobrar sus sueldos.
En los cajeros automáticos sólo se pueden realizar extracciones de dinero de cuentas en pesos uruguayos, con un límite de retiro de un 50 por ciento de la restricción diaria que tenía cada usuario hasta antes del feriado bancario.

URUGUAY/ECONOMIA.

Agencia Mexicana de Noticias, NOTIMEX. Copyright (c) Todos los derechos reservados
http://www.notimex.com.mx.

[Alfred_Marshall]

Welchen Aktien findest du am attraktivsten. Kann man einige
gute spesengünstig in den USA oder im deutschen Freiverkehr kaufen?

[Informator]

keine Ahnung zu Aktien.

Die Bonds kann man aber in D. kaufen. Wer sicher gehen will, kauft nach Auszahlung der 1,5 Mrd.. Der Preis geht evtl. dann nicht sofort stark hoch, weil die Leute supervorsichtig sind, das waere dann die gelegenheit.