Nickel - besser als Gold ?!!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[damenbart]

Nickel ist auf dem Vormarsch...

Der Markt für Nickel hat sich verengt und in eine defizitäre Position bewegt. Die Preise für Nickel haben sich konsequent von ihren historischen Tiefs erholt. Aufgrund dieser Tatsache wurden einige Minen wieder geöffnet, die vorher geschlossen waren. Die Nachfrage nach Nickel ist mit einer historischen jährlichen Rate von etwa 4% gewachsen und es wird erwartet, dass sie auf diesem Wachstumsniveau bleibt. Diese Stärke wurde vorrangig von der wachsenden Nachfrage nach Nickel bei Edelstahl getrieben, dessen Produktion für etwa 2/3 der primären Nickel Nachfrage verantwortlich ist. Es wird erwartet, dass Edelstahl ein Wachstumsprodukt bleibt - insbesondere in den Entwicklungsnationen, die ein signifikantes Volumen an Edelstahl für die Entwicklung ihrer Infrastruktur benötigen. Die Verwendung von Nickel ausserhalb von Edelstahl ist ebenfalls viel versprechend, insbesondere in Nickellegierungen, die im Weltraumsektor und für Batterien in der Elektronik und in steigendem Maße in hybriden Automobilen verwendet wird. Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich in einer Erholungsperiode und bestehende Aktivitäten produzieren nahe an der maximalen Kapazität. Mit begrenzten Aussichten auf neue Kapazitäten in den nächsten 2-3 Jahren ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit hoch, dass der Markt in den nächsten Jahren eng bleibt. Dies wird sich auf den kurzfristigen Nickelpreis auswirken.

Die Großen kanadischen Nickelproduzenten wie Inco und Falconbridge erscheinen zurzeit interessant... aber auch kleinere Explorationsunternehmen wie Donner Minerals und Iconet Inc. könnten sich in naher Zukunft ein Stück vom großen Kuchen abschneiden!

[dch]

Iconet (OTCBB: ICON; WKN: 928165) gab die Vollendung eines geophysischen Übersichtsprogramms auf seinem Langmuir Besitz bekannt. Es traten mehrere attraktive geophysische Anomalien innerhalb der viel versprechenden Stratigrafie auf, die aus ultramafinen komatiitischen Felsen besteht. Diese Felseinheiten beherbergen eine Reihe von Nickelschichten in dem Gürtel, der den Besitz des Unternehmens umschließt. Es wird antizipiert, dass Bohrungen zusätzliche Reserven skizzieren werden. Die Bohrungen werden nach Beendigung der Integration der momentanen Ergebnisse in die vorherige Datenbank unternommen, die für dieses Gebiet in über 40 Jahren Arbeit von den vorherigen Eigentümern entwickelt wurde.


(TopSmallCaps Newsletter 15.01.2003)

[KATZENGELD]

Kaufen sie JBM und sie werden lachen.
KATZENGELD

[morchel]

Die Deutsch Bank hat den Nickelpreis hochgestuft!

Alle Nickel werte im Auge behalten.

INCO, ein Nickelriese hat Probleme mit der Erschließung großer Deposits!

Donner Minerals war ja schon voriges Jahr in aller Munde und ist auch heuer wieder eine große chance.

Bei Iconet schauts ein wenig anders aus. Die Explorieren ja auf Gebiet auf dem es nachweislich schon Nickel in einem abbaubaren Bereich gibt. Die Ergebnisse müssen durch weitere Probebohrungen verifiziert werden!

morchel

[damenbart]

Nickel (Ni) is a lustrous grey magnetic metal that is capable of
retaining a high polish. It has similar hardness and strength to
iron but is more ductile and easier to work and machine. Nickel
has a high corrosion resistance and resists fracturing under stress
at high and low temperatures. Its recyclability is an added
benefit in an environmentally friendly world.

MAIN USES
Nickel is useful for its alloying properties as it imparts special
features such as corrosion resistance, workability and strength.
Smelter/refinery products with a nickel content of 99.8% or
more are electrolytic nickel, pellets, briquettes and powder.
Other products are ferro-nickel and nickel chemicals.
Nickel an attractive industry because nickel is difficult to
substitute for other elements.
The main markets for nickel are for stainless steels, speciality
steels, alloys and chemicals. Stainless steel grades (60% of
nickel use) contain mainly chromium and nickel and are used in
motor vehicles, tools, cutlery and the chemical and building
industries. Speciality steels and alloys (20% of nickel use) are
used in industrial, aerospace and military applications.

Nickel-copper alloys are used for marine components and
desalination plants. Nickel-chromium alloys are used in jet
engines and high temperature reaction vessels. Nickelchromium
alloys are used for cryogenic purposes such as the
storage of liquefied gases. Other speciality uses of nickel are
electroplating, ceramics, batteries, coins, glass pigments,
electronics and catalysts. About 50% of nickel feedstock to
stainless steel mills is reclaimed scrap, making it the strongest
competitor to primary nickel production.

[damenbart]

GEOLOGY AND RESOURCES
Nickel ores are associated with basic and ultrabasic rocks and
are of two main types: primary magmatic and secondary
lateritic. Primary nickel ores typically consist of the nickel-iron
sulphides mainly pentlandite [(Fe,Ni)9S8]. The world’s
magmatic nickel production is dominated by vertically
integrated sulphide-based operations in Russia, Canada and
Western Australia.
About 60% of the world’s nickel resources occur in laterites
formed by the deep weathering of ultramafic rocks in the tropics
and subtropics. A mature nickel-cobalt laterite profile tends to
be variable over short distances. Typically it has an upper zone
in which nickel is combined with iron oxides (limonite zone.

SUPPLY / DEMAND PROFILE
World primary nickel demand is stable and influenced by
Asian restructuring and use of scrap metal. Nickel demand
originates from the Americas 20%, Europe 35% and Asia
35%, totalling 1 million tonnes. Nickel bearing scrap (mainly
used in stainless steel) is a quarter of total annual nickel
demand.
Supply is expected to increase greatly with cash costs
dropping which in turn could broaden the market for nickel
products. Main sources of supply are Eastern Bloc 30%,
Americas 22%, Europe 17%, Asia 14% and Oceania 12%.

PRICES
Nickel has been severely affected by the commodity price falls
of recent years. During the 1970s the nickel price increased, it
then declined before rebounding to record levels in 1987 due to
stainless steel demand. After dropping to a record low in
October 1998 of US$1.76/lb it had risen to US$3.70/lb by
November 1999. This nickel price decline was consistent with
increased Russian exports, increased stainless steel scrap, and a lower zone where nickel occurs in complex magnesiumrich
silicates (saprolite zone).

[Tsuba]

Beides -Nickel und Gold-
fördert
PT Aneka Tabang WN 910452.

Die zahlten zudem bisher
immer eine gute Bardividende.

Es handelt sich um eine
Indonesiche Company;
also Länderrisiko.

Habe mir vor einiger Zeit
welche zugelegt und es nicht
bereut.

Gruss
Tsuba

[damenbart]

Chart sieht net übel aus...

PT Aneka Tabang WKN 910452

[Tsuba]

# "die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich in
einer Erholungsperiode..."

Wäre das wahr, würde alles in diesem Thread
"passen".

Wer das -wie ich- nicht so sieht,
kann sich für ein Basismetall wie Nickel
nicht allzusehr begeistern.

Da spielt es eher eine Rolle, daß
Platin heute mit 625 $ bezahlt wird.
Sollte sich Palladium von zur Zeit
ca. 250 $ erholen -sagen wir auf 350 $-
wären die PGM-Minen billig, richtig billig.

Warten wir´s ab

Gruss
Tsuba

[damenbart]

Dow Jones Business News
World Nickel Market Could See Supply Deficit In `03 - Miners
Wednesday November 27, 5:28 am ET
By Wong Chia Peck

SYDNEY, Nov. 27 (Dow Jones) - The world nickel market could witness a supply deficit as early as 2003 owing to limited new sources of supply, representatives from world nickel miners said Wednesday at an industry gathering in Sydney.

But Salomon Smith Barney`s global commodity analyst Alan Heap is more cautious, forecasting the global market`s demand and supply to be close to balance in 2003, with a deficit surfacing only in 2004.

Bruce Dumville, president of Falconbridge Nouvelle Caledonie SAS, said the Canadian parent is forecasting a market deficit as early as next year.

"I believe we are projecting a shortfall of 10,000-15,000 tons next year," he told delegates at the 5th Annual World Nickel Congress.

Falconbridge , a Canadian diversified base metals producer and one of the world`s four largest nickel producers, is trying to develop its Koniambo nickel project in New Caledonia, which targets to produce 60,000 tons of nickel in ferro-nickel a year.

"Koniambo is scheduled to start operating in 2007, after Falconbridge wraps up a bankable feasibility study in the third quarter of calendar 2003," said Dumville. The project`s total capital cost is estimated to reach US$1.57 billion, he added.

Another representative from New Caledonia agreed that the nickel market will be tight in the next two years.

"We find a very high risk of market deficit in 2003 and 2004," said Luc Timonnier, head of the purchasing department at Eramet-SLN.

Noting that significant increases in production capacity will only come on stream by 2005 and 2006, and that greenfield projects are prone to delays, 2005`s outlook will depend on how well these projects progress on schedule, he said.

"Due to the size of the projects, each delay has a large impact on the market, " he said.

SLN, or Societe Le Nickel, is the New Caledonian subsidiary of French mining group Eramet SA .

Eramet-SLN itself is planning to raise the production of its Tiebaghi mine in northwestern New Caledonia to over 1 million tons a year in 2006 from around 250,000 tons in 2000, said Timonnier.

It is also progressing with its plan to raise production at its Doniambo nickel smelter to 75,000 tons a year of ferronickel and nickel matte.

The French overseas territory of New Caledonia in the South Pacific holds about 11% of the world`s proven nickel resources in land-based deposits, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

Salomon Lifts Price Forecasts After Nickel`s Stellar Performance

Although more cautious, Salomon`s Heap said he has raised his price forecast following nickel`s bullish performance this year.

With the nickel price having rallied by over 20% from the beginning of this year, Salomon now forecasts this year`s nickel cash price on the London Metal Exchange to average US$3 a pound, compared to its earlier forecast of US$2.50/ lb, Heap said.

"Nickel has been the star performer of the base metals complex," he said, noting that unlike most of the other base metals which failed to hold on to their gains earlier this year, nickel appears to be able to sustain that rally.

At 0740 GMT Wednesday, the cash price was US$3.35/lb.

Nickel prices have been supported by limited increases in mine supply, low inventories and restricted supply of nickel scrap, said Heap.

On the demand side, stainless steel production, which accounts for about two- thirds of the world`s nickel consumption, is strong, he added.

These trends are likely to help push the global nickel market toward a supply deficit in 2004, as sources of new supply are few, while stainless steel production stays high.

"Over the next couple of years, there are no major greenfield expansions" in nickel, he said.

Stainless steel production is likely to stay high even as prices are starting to fall because producers are reluctant to cut production and concede market share in any downturn, he said.

But the global nickel market will only be close to balance in 2003, if overall global consumption grew 2%-3% next year to about 1.2 million tons, while nickel supply stays tight at around the same level, said Heap.

Then in 2004, the global nickel market will move into deficit, of about 20,000 metric tons, as demand picks up while supply growth stays subdued, he said.

The nickel price will respond accordingly, with the LME cash price to average US$3.25/lb in 2003 before rising to US$3.75/lb in 2004, he added.

But subsequently, the start-up of new production, for instance, Canada`s Inco Ltd.`s Goro nickel project in New Caledonia, will contribute to a supply surplus of over 60,000 tons in 2005, he said.

Goro Nickel SA, a subsidiary of Inco, said it expects the plant to start producing nickel and cobalt by late 2004 or early 2005, and anticipates the ramp-up to full annual production of 55,000 tons of nickel and 4,500 tons of cobalt in a year, Goro Nickel`s Managing Director Pierre Alla told delegates at the same conference.

But Russia`s Norilsk Nickel (R.GMK) could spoil the party in 2004, said Heap.

Having committed 60,000 tons of nickel as collateral with a syndicate of banks, it would be fair to assume that if prices spiked to US$4/lb, some of that stockpile could be liquidated, he added.

Serguei I. Korneev, head of market research department at Norilsk, declined to comment on the issue when approached by Dow Jones Newswires.

He would only say that he agreed with most of Heap`s nickel forecasts.

Another factor that could cloud nickel`s bullish outlook is the possibility of surplus stainless steel production, said Heap.

Noting that current stainless steel production implied an apparent consumption of 8%, which is "way out of wack with global economic activity," that could mean producers are building stocks, possibly leading prices to fall, he said.

-By Wong Chia Peck, Dow Jones Newswires; 612-8235-2957; [e-mail]